CPDSDIALOGUEONCLIMATECHANGE

PolicyAgendaforAddressingClimateChangeinBangladesh CopenhagenandBeyond
Centre for Policy D Dialogue ( (CPD)

FahmidaKhatun,PhD
AdditionalDirector,Research,CPD

and AKMNazrulIslam,PhD
SeniorResearchAssociate,CPD

18November2009 BracCentreInn,Dhaka

Introduction
Climatechange g isoneoftheg greatestenvironmental,socialandeconomicthreatsthatthe worldfacestoday Themaincharacteristicsofclimatechangeare: increasesinaverageglobaltemperature(globalwarming); changesincloudcoverandprecipitationparticularlyoverland; meltingoficecapsandglaciersandreducedsnowcoverand increasesinoceantemperaturesandoceanacidity duetoseawaterabsorbingheat andcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere TheFourthAssessmentReport(AR4)oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange (IPCC)givesdetailedprojectionsforthe21stcentury. century Theseprojectionsshowthatglobal warmingwillcontinueandaccelerate:
Underabusinessasusualscenario,greenhousegas(GHG)emissionscouldriseby25 90 percentby2030relativeto2000 ThebestestimatesindicatethattheEarthcouldwarmby3 Cby2100. 2100 Evenifcountriesreducetheirgreenhousegasemissions,theEarthwillcontinuetowarm. Predictionsby2100rangefromaminimumof1.8 Ctoasmuchas4 Criseinglobalaverage temperatures.

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Climatechangeisnotamythanymore,itisascientificreality!
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Introduction

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Notimetowaste.Actnow!
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ClimateChangeProcess

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Theprocessofclimatechangeresultinginincreasedgreenhousegasismanmade.
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MainClimateCharacteristicsandMajorThreats

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SomeFactsonClimateChange
Globalatmospheric p CO2concentrationhasincreasedfrompre p industrial280pp ppmto379 ppmin2005; CO2emissionhasgrownupabout80%between1970to2003;Almostallothergreen housegaseshavealsoshownsignificantincreaseinthesametimeperiods;

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11ofthelast12years(19952006)rankamongthe12warmestyearsofsurface temperature(since1850) Globalaveragesealevelroseatanaveragerateof1.8(1.3to2.3)mmperyearbetween 1961to2003andtherateforthe1993to2003was3.1(2.4to3.8)mm Globallyabout20to30%ofplantandanimalspeciesarehighlyvulnerable(riskof extinction)toachangeoftemperatureof1.5to2.5C Overthe20thcentury,precipitationhasmostlyincreasedoverlandinhighnorthern latitudes,whiledecreaseshavedominatedfrom100Sto300N Glaciersandicecapshaveexperiencedwidespreadmasslossesandhavecontributedto sealevelriseduringthe20thcentury
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IPCC Projection of Global Mean Temperature

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Source: UNEP/GRIDArendal

IPCC Projection of Sea Level Rise

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Impact of Climate Change

y

Increaseinglobalaverageair,oceantemperatureswilllikelytochangethe patternofrainandsnowfall, snowfall droughtsandheatwaves, waves intensityoftropical cyclonesandfloodandglobalmeansealevel SeaLevelrisewillleadtoincreasedratesofcoastalerosion,lossofcoastal vegetation,intrusionofsaltwaterintogroundwatersystemsandcoastal ecosystemetc

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Severaltypesofimpactwillbevisibleduetoclimatechange: 1 Productivity 1. P d ti it will illdecline d li poorpeoples l accessto t and dsecurity it of flivelihood li lih dassets t willreduce;leadtoinfrastructuredamagesandwaterstressduetochangesin precipitation 2. Changesintemperature,waterandvegetation increasedprevalenceofdisease whichcouldmeantherewouldbelesseffectivecopingstrategiesandincreasethe vulnerabilityofthepoor.Thiswillalsoaffecttheiremploymentandincome. 3. Therewillalsobequalitativechangesinthelivesofthepoorashealthand educationwillbedisrupted 4 Reduce 4. R d the h agricultural i l land dnatural lresourcesleading l di todecreased d dindustrial i d i l outputandlabourproductivity.Thiswillleadtoaperpetualcycleofeconomic inequalityhavinganegativeeffectonpoverty.
Climatechangeandpovertyaretwoentwinedchallengestobeaddressed simultaneously.OtherwiseachievementofMDGsmaybehampered.
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Increasing Trends of Global Disasters

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EstimatedcostsofglobalclimatechangeintermsoffutureGDPlevels
Source SternReview 2006 CostsintermsofglobalGDP 1% Costsintermsof2006 globalGDP 385/$484billion Costsby2050. 771/$968billion Costsby2050. 617/$774billion Averageannualcosts between2007&2030. 231/$290billion Explanation Stabilisationtarget:450ppmCO2or500 550ppmCO2e. Stabilisationtarget:below500ppm CO2e. Stabilisationtarget:450ppmCO2e, halvingglobalGHGemissionsby2050 relativeto1990levels. CostsoflimitingGHGconcentrationsto 450ppmCO2by2030.Focusonleastcost opportunities. Investmentinalowcarboneconomy overtheperiod20132030.Stabilisation target:450ppmCO2e. ReductionofGDPbelowBaseline estimatesin2030and2050.Stabilisation at450ppmCO2e,reducingGHG emissionsby39%by2050relativeto 2000levels. Averagemacroeconomiccostsformulti gasmitigationin2030and2050. Stabilisationat535590ppmCO2e(440 485ppmCO2).
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LordSten2008 2%

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UNDP2007

1.6%

Vattenfall 2007 EC2007

0.6%

0.5%

193/$242billion

OECD2008

0.5%in20302.5%in2050

193/$242billionin 2030, ,0.923/$1.21 /$ trillionin2050.

IPCC2007

0.6%in20301.3%in2050

231/$290billionin 2030,501/$629billion in2050

Projected Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh ProjectedChangesintheClimaticConditionofBangladesh

Year Mean Temperature Change g (C)
Annual Dec., Jan. Feb June, July, Aug

Mean Rainfall Change (mm)

Annual Dec., Jan. Feb June, July, Aug

Sea Level Rise

Sediment

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Baseline Average 2030 2050 2100

1.0

1.1

0.8

+3.8

-1.2

+4.7

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325

1.4 2.4

1.6 2.7

1.1 1.9

+5.6 +9.7

-1.7 -3.0

+6.8 +11.8

32 88

700 1350

Source: Agrawala et al 2003; IPCC 2001, 2007.

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Projected Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh

IPCC (2007) forecasted that a mere 1 metre rise in sealevel will inundate 20% of its landmass and thus loss of much of our coastal regions permanently l and d thus h affect ff the h coastal l agriculture i l Centre for Policy D Dialogue ( (CPD) IPCC (2001) also projected an increase by 588 cm by the year 2100; A global climate change model shows that the overall global crop productivity will reduce by 2030% because of climate change and South Asia is particularly vulnerable Bangladesh will loose about 8% of its rice and 32% wheat production by the y year 2050 ( (IPCC; 2007) )

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Projected Impact of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh

In 1989

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Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: CYCLONE

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Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: FLOOD

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Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: DROUGHT

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Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: HEALTH HAZARD

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Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh Risks in the form of increasing g incidences of extreme events like storms, , cyclones, floods, heat waves, Due to poor resilience capacity in the Bangladeshi society there will be more casualty due to climate change; Centre for Policy D Dialogue ( (CPD) Loss of biodiversity due to climate change will affect the capacity of inventing new medicines as many important medicinal plants, tress and other species will ll disappear; d Largescale migration in the urban areas may make our cities (which are already under severe stress) more vulnerable to health hazards; Reduction in the availability of freshwater may affect people's health as many will be bound to use unclean water and there may be more epidemics in the near future; The poor, women and children will particularly be more vulnerable from various health related problems.

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Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh

There may be change in the social structure due to changes in occupational patterns; Centre for Policy D Dialogue ( (CPD) Due to sealevel rising there may be impacts on the overall sociocultural life forms of the affected people; Largescale migration of climate refugees to the urban areas may jeopardize the urban sociocultural patterns; Many of the indigenous communities may loose their cultural traditions with increasing pressure from climatic impacts; There is also possibility of losing many of the inherited social norms and customs as there may be much changes in peoples lifestyles, occupations, health status, etc.

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TowardsCopenhagen:MajorMilestones
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TheCopenhagenConference2009isthefinalsteptowardscreatinganewandeffective globalagreementonclimatechangereplacingtheKyotoProtocolwhichsetcommitments till2012. DevelopmentsintheworldsincetheKyotoProtocolwhichwasnegotiatedin1997show th tanewagreement that tis i needed. d d ForthefirsttimetheKyotoProtocolintroducedbindingtargetsforgreenhousegas emissionsin37industrialisedcountriesfrom2008to2012. Afterseveralyearsofuncertaintyastowhetherasufficientnumberofcountrieswould ratifythetreatytheProtocolcameintoforceon16February2005despiteoppositionby ycountriesliketheUSA many SeveralmembercountriesoftheUNFCCChavenotratifiedtheKyotoProtocolanddonot acknowledgeitsrequirementsregardingemissions. Since1997ChinahasreplacedtheUSAasthelargestemitterofgreenhousegases,andthe priceofoilhassoared. AndmeetingsoftheAdHocWorkingGrouponLongtermCooperativeActionunderthe Convention(AWGLCA)showthatthepartiesstillhavedifferingopinionsregardingwhat thefutureagreementshouldcontain.

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TowardsCopenhagen:MajorMilestones
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However,theBaliConferencemadearoadmapaimedathammeringoutanew ambitiousglobalclimateagreementbyDecember2009inCopenhagenwhichwill replacetheKyotoProtocol(beyondtheyear2012) WiththeBaliActionPlan,allcountriesagreedonfiveelements: asharedvisionforlongtermcooperativeaction,includingalongtermglobalgoal foremissionsreductions; enhancednational/internationalactiononclimatechangemitigation mitigation; enhancedactiononadaptationtoclimatechange; enhancedactionontechnologydevelopmentandtransfertosupportactionon mitigationandadaptation;and enhancedactionontheprovisionoffinancialresourcesandinvestmenttosupport actiononmitigationandadaptation,andtechnologycooperation. Therewereseveraldiscussions/negotiationsaboutthespecificcontentofeachindividual buildingblock Conferences/meetingsinPoznan(2008),Geneva(2009),Bangkokandfinally,in B Barcelona l (2009)had h dth thespecific ifi goal lof fcreating ti alegally l ll binding bi di regime i for f carbon b reductionbycreatingasuccessfulgroundfortheproposedclimatepolicy
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IssuesforBangladesh
y

WithaVISIONtoeradicatepovertyandachieveeconomicandsocialwell being,theGovernmentseekstoachievethisthroughaPROPOORand CLIMATERESILIENTSTRATEGY,basedonthefourbuildingblocksoftheBali ActionPlan ThegovernmenthasformulatedtheNationalAdaptationProgrammeof Action(NAPA)2005andBangladeshClimateChangeStrategyandActionPlan (BCCSAP)2008whichhasbeenrevisedin2009. TheBCCSAP2009hasidentifiedsixpriorityareas:foodsecurity,social protectionandhealth;Comprehensivedisastermanagement;infrastructure; researchandknowledgemanagement;mitigationandlowcarbon development,andcapacitybuildingandinstitutionalstrengthening Overthelast35years,GoBmadeinvestmentsforfloodmanagement schemes,coastalpolders,cycloneandfloodshelters,andtheraisingofroads and dhi highways h above b fl flood dl level l
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IssuesforBangladesh
1.Adaptationversusmitigation

BangladeshcontributesnegligiblytotheglobalGHGemission WithonlyonefifthofonepercentofworldtotalintermsofGHGemission majorfocusofBangladeshistodeviseadaptationpoliciesandmeasures. Measuresarerequiredinthefollowingareas,amongothers.

Agriculture,forestryandfisheries Watersupplies Extremeevents Capacitybuildingincludingresearch Coastalzones Infrastructure Humanhealth Nationalpolicies

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IssuesforBangladesh
2.Financingclimatechange Adaptationtoclimatechangewillbringwithitadditionalcostsforbothpublic andprivatesectors The Th C Copenhagen h negotiation i i will illf focusonseparatei international i l f funds d f for adaptationandinnovation Developingcountrieshavetobereassuredthattherewillbenewandadditional fundforadaptation adaptation,whichcomplimentsratherthancompetewithODA Oneofthefundamentalquestionsregardingfinanceiswhereitwillcomefrom: directcontributionsfromdevelopedcountrygovernments,aspreferredbydeveloping
countries;or marketmechanisms,aspreferredbydevelopedcountries

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Thereareseveralproposalsonthetabletoprovidethenecessaryfinancing, f whichdevelopingcountriesclaimwillbeontheorderofhundredsofbillionsof USDperyear However, However theneedforadaptationfundsisovershadowedbyotherfunds

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IssuesforBangladesh
2.Financingclimatechange

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IssuesforBangladesh
2.Financingclimatechange
ComparisonofFinancialSectorBailoutsbyDeveloped CountriesandEstimatedClimateFinancingNeeds(USDbln) ClimateFinancingMismatchbetweenNeeds andAvailability(USDbln)

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300
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1 00 1500 1000 500 0

278.82 262.15 UNFCCC estimate-low estimate low end

250
4100

200 150 100 50 Available or pledgedGEF-UNFCCC+nonUNFCCC Channels G77 mand China proposal-low p p end-2007 GDP

262.15

278.82

28.98

G77 and China proposal -low end-2007 GDP UNFCCC annual climate finance estimate-low end Financial Sectors bailout by developed countries (commitmentsin 2008)

0 Estimates of w hat is needed w hat is available or pledged

Commitmentsforclimatefundisfartoolessthanrequirement! Prioritiesaresomewhereelse.

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IssuesforBangladesh
2.Financingclimatechange
y y

The issues is not only about how to raise the money, but also about how finance is channeled and governed Public P bli financing fi i is i generally ll channeled h l d through h h large l centralised li d funds f d while hil marketbased financing is typically delivered through myriad individually developed projects Large funds f d have h issues with h governance, conditionality, d l efficiency, ff and d direct d access, while market mechanisms have issues of distribution, sustainability, effectiveness, and unintended consequences All funds have a limited time horizon, with no commitments made beyond the 2012 This short timescale is indicative more of a piloting phase rather than any new longterm architecture of global environmental funding The experience gained through disbursing currently available funds, however, will provide much valuable experience on how to channel global funds to tackle climate change in developing countries over the long term
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y y y

IssuesforBangladesh
2.Financingclimatechange
y y

GoBisworkingtowardsbuildingupaclimatefundtoaddresstheclimatechange InFY200809,thegovernmentestablishedaNationalClimateChangeFundworth USD45millionwhileinthenationalbudgetofFY200910, 10 anadditionalUSD105million wasaddedtothisfund. TheUKpledgedtograntBangladeshatotalofUSD132millionforitsadaptationand g options. p mitigation TheComprehensiveActionPlan(20092018)onclimatechangepreparedbytheGoB estimatedUSD500millionforimplementingitsfirst2years. TheActionPlanestimatesthatUSD5billionwillbeneededforthefirst5years y Newsourcesofclimatefundscanbeexplored.OnesuchsourcecouldbeAidfor Trade(A4T)setupundertheauspiciousoftheWTOduringthecourseoftheDoha Roundnegotiationonglobaltrade

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y y y y

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IssuesforBangladesh
3 Technologytransfer 3.
y

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Transferanddiffusionofenvironmentallysoundtechnologiesisakey elementofanyeffectiveinternationalresponsetotheglobalclimate changechallengeandoneofthepillarsoftheUNFCCC Incaseoftechnologytransferthemainissuesonthetablearetechnology financing,researchanddevelopment,includingintellectualpropertyrights (IPRs) andinstitutionalarrangements UnderArticle66.2inTRIPS,developedcountriesarerequiredtoprovide incentivestotheirnationalenterprisestopromotetransferoftechnologies toLDCs. Developedcountriesarenoteffectivelyimplementingthisarticleandas such arenotfulfillingtheirobligationsundertheWTO such,

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IssuesforBangladesh
3.Technology gytransfer
y

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Technologiesthatarerequiredtobedevelopedandtransferredtocountries suchasBangladesh g forfighting g gclimatechange g are: Agriculturaltechnology Healthtechnology Industrialdesign g forlowcarbon,high g energy gyefficienttechnology gy Renewableenergyresources/technology Financialresourcesforadaptationtonaturaldisasters(infrastructure development) Researchanddevelopmentinthefieldssuchas: x Newvarietiesoftolerantcrops x Newsourcesofrenewableenergy

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IssuesforBangladesh
4.Climatechangeandtrade
Tradehasanimportantplaceintheglobalizationprocessaswellasclimatechange mitigationandadaptation y TheBaliRoadmaprecognizestheimportanceofopportunitiesforusingmarketsto enhancecosteffectivenessof, ,andtop promote, ,mitigation g actions.Tradehas implicationsforthefiveelementsandviceversa y Tradeisanimportantchannelforthediffusionofgoodstomitigateclimatechange Loweringtradebarriersfromgoodsbringstheirpricesclosertoworldmarketprices, makingthemmoreaffordabletoconsumerstherebyreducingclimatemitigation costsoverall
y y

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Tradeencouragesthespreadoftechnologicalinnovationsthatarebeneficialin mitigatingclimatechange. LoweringtariffsonclimatemitigationgoodscanalsocontributetoUNFCCC technologytransfermandatesbyfacilitatingaccesstothesegoods

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IssuesforBangladesh
4.Climatechangeandtrade

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y y

Duetoitsextremevulnerabilitytoclimatechangeaswellasitsgrowingparticipation inglobaltrade,Bangladeshshouldbealertoftheinterlinkagesbetweentradeand climatechange Issuessuchascarbonemissionreduction, ,bordermeasuresandcrossbordercarbon tradingarebeingdiscussedwithregardtoclimatechangeandtradeissues. Moreover,reductionoreliminationoftariffsandnontariffbarriers(NTBs)from environmentalgoodsandservices(EGS)isbeingnegotiatedaspartoftheWTOsDoha mandate. Bangladeshisyettohaveapositionontherelationshipbetweentradeandclimate change,andthewaystradecanbeusedtofightclimatechange Thereisaneedtocontributetotheglobaldebateon
(i)howtradepolicytoolssuchastariffsandparatariffs, tariffs subsidies subsidies,quotas quotas,standardsand labelingaffectclimatechange; (ii)howtradecanassistinaddressingclimatechange; (iii)whetherclimatechangemeasuresviolateworldtraderulesoraffecttradepatterns;and (iv)howthetraderulescan/shouldbeamended/interpretedfortherealizationofclimate changeaswellassustainabledevelopmentgoals.

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IssuesforBangladesh
4.Climatechange g andtrade

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However,beforeBangladeshentersintoanyagreementonliberalisationofEGS issuessuchasdefinitionoftheEGS,classificationanddescriptionofharmonised systemacrosscountries,changesintechnology,tariffmeasures,accesstotechnology and d i issuesrelated l t d t toperceived i d i impacts t ond domestic ti i industries d t i must tb beexamined i d carefully Yetanotherissuesistradep protectionistmeasuresinthenameofenvironmental improvements TheUSA,CanadaandtheEUhavemadeproposalsto"leveltheplayingfield"byusing carbontariffs,thatisdutiesimposedonimportsfromcountrieshavinglesscontrolon greenhousegasemissions Bangladeshshouldalsobewatchfulagainstgreenprotectionismbythedeveloped countriesanddemandforgreaterhelptodealwiththeirecoproblems

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ConcludingRemarks
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Beingoneof fthe h mostaffected ff dand dvulnerable l bl countriesinthe h world ldd dueto climatechangeBangladeshiscertainlywellpositionedtoraiseitsvoiceand bargainforgettingafareshareinaglobalclimatedeal Theprerequisitesfortheseincludeadequateknowledgetopresenttheright issuesandreasonsclearlyandloudly Thenegotiatorshavetohaveaclearunderstandingofthedepthandextent oftheproblemintermsofitsimpactonvarioussectorsoftheeconomyboth inphysicalandeconomicterms Giventhefactthatclimatechangeisacomplicatedandtechnicalissuethere isneedforincludeexperts,representativesfromNGOs,CSOsandall stakeholderstotackletheproblemdomesticallyandtodeviseapositionfor negotiation ti ti at tthe th international i t ti llevels l l

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ConcludingRemarks
y

In parallel with international negotiations initiatives at the domestic level are needed for improving the use of financial resources and quality of technology transfer

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Developadequatehumanandorganizationalcapacity:Adequatetechnical, business,management,andregulatoryskills Createanappropriateenablingenvironment: Participationofallstakeholders privateactors,publicagencies,NGOs,CSOs andgrassrootsorganizations Establisheffectivemechanisms: Improvetransparencyofprojectapprovalandpublicprocurement procedures;reducecorruption

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ConcludingRemarks Riverpollution

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ConcludingRemarks
Riverencroachment:TuragRiver

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Centre for Policy D Dialogue ( (CPD)

Emissions ConcludingRemarks

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Concludingremarks
Clearingforests:Kewraforest

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Concludingremarks

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Thehousehastobesetinordertoo!

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Centre for Policy D Dialogue ( (CPD)

g{t~ l l

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