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CGD Securities

Morning Briefing
2 October 2013

OI OI and Portugal Telecom (PT) announce a merger Positive

Ibovespa Daily Performance- Sectors


Oil & Gas Industrials 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2%

LOCAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS


4.4%

Health Care
Consumer Services Financials Utilities Consumer Goods

1.1%
1.1% 0.9% 0.8%

Telecommunications
Basic Materials

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

* ELET6 Financial and Investor Relations Director of Eletrobras, Armando Casado, admits the possibility that the state owned company may take over the 51% stake of Alupar in the winning consortium of the Sinop plant project, granted by the government at the new energy-5 auction last August. "We do not rule it out. We have the grant, and do not rule out any possibility," said the executive, who attended the Fundao Coge event on the Brazilian electric sector on Tuesday, October 01. [O Estado de So Paulo Newspaper] * BEEF3 JBS and Marfrig Alimentos announced, through Material Fact to the market, the completion of the sale of Seara Brasil and Zenda to JBS. The transaction of BRL 5.8b was announced on June 10 and, as expected, was completed on Monday. "All conditions required for the signing were fulfilled, including approval of the transaction by antitrust agencies in Brazil and Europe," states the Fact. [Valor Econmico Newspaper] * IGTA3 Iguatemi Empresa de Shopping Centers reported that it bought 55.43% of Anhumas, which holds 50% of the Galleria Shopping Center real estate and adjacent land. The acquisition of BRL 69.3m was done through its subsidiary EDR47. The deal depends on approval of the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade). When finalized, Iguatemi will raise capital through EDR47, whereby its share in the social capital of Anhumas will increase to 60%. Thus, the transaction value will reach a total of BRL 83.6m. [O Estado de So Paulo Newspaper] * Electric Utilities The government of the State of So Paulo plans to compete with the Northeast and Rio Grande do Sul on the billionaire investments poured into wind power generation in Brazil. The Secretary of Energy of So Paulo, Jos Anbal, will meet with the President of the Brazilian Association of Wind Energy (Abeelica), Elbia Melo, to discuss the inclusion of the So Paulo market in the sector. Also invited to the meeting are representatives of equipment manufacturers that have factories in the state. [Valor Econmico Newspaper]

Top 5 (%) OGXP3 UGPA3 TIMP3 FIBR3 USIM5 World Indexes (%) Ibovespa S&P 500 IPC Merval Euro Stoxx 50 TOPIX Shanghai Comp. BSE SENSEX MICEX FTSE/JSE All Share

14.3 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 Origin Brazil USA Mexico Argentina Europe Japan China India Russia South Africa

Bottom (%) MMXM3 PDGR3 CRUZ3 JBSS3 OIBR4 Last 53,179 1,695 41,335 4,907 2,918 1,175 2,175 19,517 1,461 43,921 Last (USD) 2.22 13.22 5.80 1.35 97.39 6.12 62.47 32.32 10.13

-3.9 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4

Day MTD YTD 1.6 6.3 -10.7 0.8 3.8 17.3 2.9 4.7 0.5 2.6 24.7 99.6 1.4 7.8 17.4 -0.1 7.9 63.0 0.7 3.6 4.2 0.7 4.8 3.7 0.6 7.8 -1.2 -0.2 4.1 21.2 Var. (%) Day MTD 0.0 -7.1 0.5 -1.7 0.1 2.3 0.0 2.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -4.9 -0.5 -3.2 1.0 -1.5

Currency Real Mexican Peso Argentine Peso Euro Yen Yuan Rupee Ruble Rand
Source: Bloomberg, Economtica

YTD 9.4 2.5 23.4 5.0 25.7 -2.6 19.2 3.6 20.8

Elaborated by:

Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: ESNR <go>

MACROECONOMIC COMMENT Industrial production was flat in August. The news was disappointing because the market expected industrial output to grow 0.2% MoM. The production of capital goods rose 2.6% MoM and the production of intermediary goods and mining output registered small gains. However, this was offset by the 0.6% MoM drop in production of consumption goods. The substantial increase of capital goods production in August partially offset the large drop in July and was led by transport equipment. Meanwhile, the drop in production of consumption goods was led by non-durable goods. On average, the level of industrial production remains within a narrow range. Nevertheless, it is poised to have posted a large drop in 3Q13, compared to 2Q13. Mauro Schneider

RESEARCH OI (OIBR4, Buy, TP BRL 8.00) OI and Portugal Telecom announced a memorandum of understanding for the merger of the companies and Telemar Participaes (OIs shareholding controller), to create CorpCo. In addition, OI will also to do a capital increase that should range between BRL 13.1 b and BRL 14.1 b, with between BRL 7.0 and BRL 8.0 b in cash. The shareholding controller of Telemar Participaes and an investment vehicle managed and run by BTG Pactual will participate in the offering by placing a subscription order of approximately BRL 2.0 billion. Portugal Telecom estimates that the equity value of PT Assets, upon assessment for the purposes of the contribution to Oi, corresponds to a value within a range of values equivalent to BRL 5.8 b and BRL 6.4 b. Another important point will be the improvement of the corporate governance of CorpCo, which will have its shares listed in MF&Bovespa (NOVO MERCADO), NYSE and NYSE Euronext Lisbon. The swap ratios were calculated based on the share prices over the last 30 days: 1 OIBR3 (OI voting share) will swap for 1 voting share of CorpCo; 1.0857 OIBR4 (OI nonvoting share) will swap for 1 voting share of CorpoCo; 1 PT share will swap for a number of share of CorpCo equivalent to EUR 2.2911 (issue with the same price of OIs capital increase). According to the companies, this operation will have a synergy gain of BRL 5.5 b (NPV). The companies also informed that, based on the reported 2012 full year financials of Portugal Telecom and Oi, CorpCo had pro forma revenue of R$37.5 billion, EBITDA of R$12.8 billion and Operating Cash Flow of R$4.2 billion. If OIs capital increase in cash reaches BRL 8.0 billion, then proforma, CorpCos net debt was R$41.2 billion, as of June 30, 2013. Therefore, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio would be 3.2x. Lastly, we highlight that this process should end in 1H14 and Mr. Zeinal Bava will be CEO of CorpCo. Alex Pardellas

CGD Securities
Morning Briefing
2 October 2013

Ibovespa

Points
70,000
65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000

Volume (BRL b)
30
25 20 15 10 5

40,000
Nov-12

Dec-12

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jul-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jul-13

May-12

May-13

Aug-12

Mar-12

Source: Bloomberg

Futures` Market - Ibovespa

Long Position
0.65% 11.54% 41.62%

Mar-13

Short Position
1.78% 9.21% 40.81%

Aug-13

Sep-13

Apr-12

Apr-13

Jan-13

46.18%

48.20%

National Institutional Investor Foreign Investor Banks Other


Source: Bovespa

National Institutional Investor Foreign Investor Banks Other

Open Positions - BTC


Short-Selling Bottom 5 Days to Cover Ticker 23.8 SBSP3 15.2 TIMP3 14.8 BISA3 11.7 AEDU3 10.5 OGXP3

Mar-13

May-13

Top 5 Ticker BBDC3 ELPL4 LAME4 NATU3 CPLE6

Points 70,000
Days to Cover 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 60,000 50,000 40,000

BRL b 60 50 40 30

Jan-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Open Positions - BTC


Source: CBLC, Bloomberg, Economtica

Ibovespa

Elaborated by:

Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: ESNR <go>

Sep-13

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Recommendation System: Since 4 August 2008, the Members of ESN (European Securities Network) are using an Absolute Recommendation System to rate any single stock under coverage, with a time horizon of 12 months and a rating scale as follows. CaixaBI is a Member of ESN, therefore uses the same Recommendations System of ESN. The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends) over a 12 months time horizon. The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S). Meaning of each rating or recommendation: Buy: the stock is expected to generate a total return of over 20% during the next 12-month time horizon; Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate a total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12-month time horizon; Hold: the stock is expected to generate a total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12-month time horizon; Reduce: the stock is expected to generate a total return of 0 to -10% during the next 12-month time horizon; Sell: the stock is expected to generate a total return below -10% during the next 12-month time horizon; Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, ) where the issuer or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock; Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer or a related party of the issuer.

Equity Research Team


Joo Miguel Loureno BRASIL (CGD Securities) Equity Research Vicente Koki, CNPI Alex Pardellas, CNPI Leonardo Pinto, CNPI Jlia Monteiro, CNPI Elaine Rabelo, CNPI Thomaz Moraes Strategy Mauro Schneider Technical Analysis Eduardo Collor, CNPI Trading Desk Bovespa So Paulo Ricardo de Paula - Head SP Rio de Janeiro Edmilson Lana - Head RJ Trading Desk BM&F So Paulo Sergio Campanille - Head Rio de Janeiro Research Sales Raffi Dokuzian - Head PORTUGAL (CaixaBI) Equity Research Andr Rodrigues Carlos Jesus Guido Varatojo dos Santos Helena Barbosa Jos Mota Freitas, CFA Equity Sales Valentim Martins General Manager Trading Ins Ribeiro Head Sales Sofia Cordeiro Head Investment Centre Lisbon Paulo Asseiceiro Syndication and Sales Team Leonor Canedo General Manager Rui Correia Joana Gouveia Jorge Bento Sebastio Coutinho andre.rodrigues@caixabi.pt carlos.jesus@caixabi.pt guido.santos@caixabi.pt helena.barbosa@caixabi.pt mota.freitas@caixabi.pt +351 21 389 68 39 +351 21 389 68 12 +351 21 389 68 22 +351 21 389 68 31 +351 22 607 09 31 +351 21 313 73 00 +351 21 389 68 16 vkoki@cgdsecurities.com.br apardellas@cgdsecurities.com.br lpinto@cgdsecurities.com.br jmonteiro@cgdsecurities.com.br erabelo@cgdsecurities.com.br tmoraes@cgdsecurities.com.br +55 11 3074 4522 +55 21 3138 3154 +55 11 3074 4517 +55 21 3138 3128 +55 11 3074 8027 +55 11 3074 4514

mschneider@cgdsecurities.com.br ecollor@cgdsecurities.com.br

+55 11 3074 4534 +55 21 3138 3153

rpaula@cgdsecurities.com.br elana@cgdsecurities.com.br

+55 11 3073 6120 +55 21 3138 3107 +55 11 3074 4560

scampanille@cgdsecurities.com.br

+55 11 3074 8047 +55 21 3138 3107 +55 11 3074 8003 +55 11 3074 4540

sales@cgdsecurities.com.br raffi.dokuzian@cgdsecurities.com.br

valentim.martins@caixabi.pt

ines.ribeiro@caixabi.pt

+351 21 389 68 74 +351 21 389 68 89 +351 21 389 68 96

sofia.cordeiro@caixabi.pt

paulo.asseiceiro@caixabi.pt

+351 21 389 68 76

leonor.canedo@caixabi.pt msv@caixabi.pt rui.correia@caixabi.pt joana.gouveia@caixabi.pt jorge.bento@caixabi.pt sebastiao.coutinho@caixabi.pt

+351 21 389 68 85 +351 21 389 68 86 +351 21 389 68 87 +351 21 389 68 88 +351 21 389 68 19

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