Modes of Explanation in Anthropological Population Theory: Biological Determinism vs.

Self-Regulation in Studies of Population Growth in Third World Countries Bonnie Anna Nardi American Anthropologist, New Series, Vol. 83, No. 1. (Mar., 1981), pp. 28-56.
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Modes of Explanation in Anthropological Population Theory: Biological Determinism vs. Self-Regulation in Studies of Population Growth in Third World Countries
BONNIE ANNA NARDI
Duke University Anthropological theones of population growth in underdeveloped countries are considered and it is argued that most studies have concentrated e x c l ~ ~ ~ ~ on v eeither l y deterministic or self-regulatoy factors in population growth without regard to their probable interaction. A research strategy is proposed in which self-regulatoyfactors, especially the decision-making activities of individual parents, provide a primay focus of study but with careful attention to deterministic factors which constrain and influence the decision process. [population, underdevelopment, biology and self-regulation in population theory] INTRODUCTION

THEVAST MAJORITY OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION lives today in countries which have Come to be known as underdeveloped. Although these countries have strong economic ties to the richer nations, their own economies have been unable to generate and distribute wealth to large segments of their populations. Many of these countries share a colonial past; others became underdeveloped by virtue of a system of foreign investment which returns profits to investor countries but does not seem to advance the economy of the home country to an appreciable degree. Underdevelopment has produced colossal changes in the human condition and prospect for tens of millions of people. Most underdeveloped countries began to experience rapid population growth when they were European colonies, often following a period of extreme depopulation (see Wagley 1940, 1951; Hunt, Kidder, and Schneider 1954; Lessa 1955; Polunin and Saunders 1958; Dobyns 1963; Polgar 1974, 1975). Rapid growth continued into the postcolonial period as societies which were once characterized by selfsufficient subsistence economies were transformed into underdeveloped societies via the transition to a cash economy and dependence on a world market. Other countries were not colonized but experienced the same transformation from independent subsistence production to dependence on world markets, and the same rapid population growth.

BONNIE A. NARD1 received a Ph.D. in anthropology from the University of California at l ~ n in e 1977. She is currently a postdoctoral fellow of Duke University conducting a study of fertility decision making in Western Samoa. Among her recent papers ia "Use of Computer Simulation for Predicting Sociocultural Change" (in Predicting Sociocultuml Change, Swan Abbot and John Van Willigcn, cds.. Athens: University of Georgia b ) .

Copyright @ 1981 by the American Anthropological Association

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This growth is unprecedented. If we compare the modem increase with the other major population expansion-that of the agricuitural revolution-the difference is easily appreciated. The population increase associated with the agricultural revolution actually produced a sharper inflection in the population curve than the present increase (see Deevey 1960; Polgar 1972). But in 8000 B.C. there were only approximately 5.5 million people on earth (Deevey 1960:195) so that were the population to double, it would mean an increase to just 11 million. Today a doubling of the world population implies an increase to about 8 billion people, and the doubling time at current rates is approximately forty . years. . This level of population growth has been cause for considerable concern; the anxious commentary of the news media and the fastidiously documented predictions of disaster and collapse from the scientific community have been more than enough to fuel the image of the "population crisis" in the popular imagination. There has been, of course, much sober and reflective discussion of the causes and consequences of the current population increase; however extreme opinions abound and it is noteworthy that the prophets of doom, the eugenicists and the proponents of "triage"' come from the most respected universities, foundations, government agencies, and international organizations in the world (see Polgar 1975). Concern with prodigious-growth in the human population is not new. Whether we look to the Reverend Thomas R. Malthus's Essay on the Principle of Population (1958) in which he cast the famous arithmetic/geometric growth ~ a r a d i g r nor , ~ to the Tikopian chiefs who periodically sent forth canoes full of young men on "voyages of exploration" from which they were not expected to return (Firth 1970), we find serious theoretical and methodological approaches-to problems of population growth. But only in the atmosphere of the current debate is it possible to find an article on human population control in a general volume on pest management: "Pest Management: Objectives and Prospects on a Global Scale" (Corbet 1971). In spite of (or perhaps in response to) the metaphorical excesses of the current rhetoric (including bombs, booms, explosions, and pests), a great deal of careful scholarly work in many disciplines has been devoted to study of the rise of the modem population. Much of this work is motivated by a concern with the formulation and/or evaluation of population policies. Numerous population policies have been proffered for underdeveloped countries by economists, demographers, political scientists, and anthropologists. These policies range from simple verbal and pictorial exhortationS in favor of small families to the coercive policies backed by such phrases as "fitness for parenthood" (Hardin 1970) and "earthpest explosion" (Corbet 1971). Most policies assume a responsible stance in advocating various types of social change which are expected to induce lower birth rates and thus slow population growth. In order to evaluate the probable success of these policies, it is necessary to have an understanding of the dynamics behind the spectacular increase in population which continues unabated in many countries today. Other investigators are motivated by more purely theoretical concerns. Is the current level of growth primarily a result of changes in the biological environment of today's world -more medicine, improved nutrition, extensive disease control -or is it a product of human intention and rational action, the deliberate creation of large families? Does it share some aspects of both, and if so, by what methods can we study the effective contribution of each biological or intentional factor which affects levels of population growth? To what extent do "cultural" factors come into play and what is their relationship to biological process and rational action? This pape; will ieview anthropological theories of population growth. Studies outside the discipline which have had a significant impact on anthropological thinking will also be included. A general discussion of the literature as a whole will be followed by a

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literature review in which the major biological and intentional factors of current interest in anthropological population research are examined.

DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION GROWTH:

DETERMINISTIC FACTORS VS. SELF-REGULATION

Population studies are typically concerned with three principal processes: fertility,' mortality, and migration. For purposes of studying globai population growth the first two are primary since individuals can be added to and subtracted from the population via birth and death only. Migration may be critical at regional or national levels, and since it may affect both fertility and mortality, its influence upon those processes must be considered when appropriate. Anthropological studies of population growth in underdeveloped countries are sharply divided into two groups. The first group relies on explanations in which "deterministic" factors are used to explain rates of population growth. These factors involve no element of personal choice or purposeful behavior; demographic outcomes are determined for individuals by external factors over which they have no control. Deterministic factors impinge upon individuals in such a way that they make no deliberate decision as to their operation or outcome. They are primarily biological or environmental in nature, and they affect both fertility and mortality. Involuntary sterility, diet, age, disease, and breast-feeding influence fertility. Diet, age, disease, sanitation, exposure to high risk occupations, and activities such as coal mining or automobile driving affect mortality. I have labeled these variables "deterministic"; whether they are truly deterministic in a deeper philosophical sense is another question. I would like to emphasize that it is an open question at this point. For example, most investigators would agree that the aging process may be regarded as strictly deterministic when it is considered as a factor influencing fertility. It is something over which the individual has no control. However, it can be argued that there are in fact limited special situations in which even aging can be deliberately modified to affect fertility in a desired way, such as the administration of hormones to enhance fecundity. One cannot categorically state that for all individuals in all situations the effects of aging upon fertility are beyond individual control. It follows that it is incumbent upon the investigator to specify the extent to which a given variable constrains individual choice in a particular situation - with completely constrained choice of course being one option. The example of aging is an extreme case; the notion of determinacy becomes much more problematic when considering variables relating to "social control" such as age at marriage, social pressure from close relatives, or sterilization of a retarded person. Are an individual's actions determined for him in these cases or not? The answer will depend upon the investigator's notion of freedom of choice, and ideas regarding the extent to which culture dictates, determines, prescribes, or merely suggests. The second group of studies is concerned with self-regulation in population control- the way in which individual parents deliberately manage their reproductive lives. These studies view demographic process as the outcome of human intention and rational action. Population regulation may include increasing or decreasing family size at the individual level, or community size at the group level. Anthropological studies of population growth which consider self-regulation have concentrated on the regulation of fertility. Ultimately the study of fertility regulation reduces to the study of the practice of fertility-regulating behavior- the use of birth control, abortion, infanticide, sterilization, abstinence. However, it is the reasons for the use of fertility-regulating techniques which have interested anthropologists most, and studies of

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self-regulation consider social, cultural, political, and economic factors to which people respond in controlling their fertility. Although one can divide the determinants of population growth into "deterministic" and "self-regulating" categories, the problem lies in ascertaining how various determinants operate in a given situation. The complexity of population problems shows up both in terms of the number of variables which may be pertinent to the problem at hand and the relative importance of each individual variable (see Hawthorn 1968; Olusanya 1971). Dealing with these problems is a major challenge of population research. It is also the major shortcoming of most population studies to date. Thus far, most studies have concentrated exclusively on one set of factors or the other, without regard to their probable interaction. As the following review will show, a large portion of the literature on population growth in underdeveloped countries is devoted to examination of deterministic variables only. Human intention and the deliberate use of fertility-regulating practices are disregarded. Some investigators assume that conscious birth planning is unimportant or nonexistent, others that it is not amenable to analysis. Many approaches take the stance that underdeveloped peoples do not consciously regulate their numbers, although precolonial (or preindustrial) and industrialized peoples do. A variant of this idea is that only those Third World individuals who are in close contact with modem institutions such as hospitals regulate family size. These explanations do not focus on the availability of modern methods of birth control as might be expected, but on attitudinal changes associated with development. In certain contexts the strictly deterministic approach is useful and may provide valuable insights into the particular problem which the investigator has posed. This is true primarily in two cases. The first case is comparative studies in which two regions or time periods are being compared, and many factors can be carefully controlled. Here it is appropriate to focus on a deterministic factor without reference to individual motivation, provided there are no significant social changes or regional differences which could affect motivation (e.g., Riley 1976). The second case is restricted to instances of low fertility where a biological or environmental event has significantly decreased or destroyed fecundity, such as an epidemic of untreated syphilis. In this instance people do not have the option of producing large numbers of children, whatever their desires might be. These cases account for only a small number of studies. Most deterministic studies are extremely problematic because they rule out a priori human intention and deliberate action regarding formation of the family. But these factors cannot be ruled out for several reasons. First, we know that people in all cultures and epochs have regulated fertility. In fact, there are many data to suggest that fertility regulation is a virtually universal phenomenon (Carr-Saunders 1922; Devereux 1967; Himes 1963; Polgar 1971, 1972, 1975). Himes (1963) detailed the vast array of contraceptive, abortifacient, and sterilizing goods and services available in preindustrial societies in Africa, North America, South America, and "Australasia." Devereux (1967) examined abortion in 550 "primitive, ancient and preindustrial societies." Langer (1974) cataloged the practice of infanticide in the West including Hellenistic Greece, medieval Europe, and 19th-century England (see also Kellum 1974). And it must be remembered that people can resort to abstinence and coitus interruptus to control fertility. Despite their obvious difficulties, these practices can lower fertility levels, if not offer the individual perfect control. (Demographers attribute the dramatic fertility decline of Europe after industrialization largely to the practice of coitus interruptus [Wrigley 19691.)

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Investigators who focus on deterministic explanations of population growth must be prepared to assert that the married individuals (and possibly others) in the populations they study are reproducing up to their biological limit, and that growth rates are essentially unaffected by the deliberate use of fertility-regulating techniques. This is an assumption underlying many studies which goes unstated but which is theoretically important in attempting to delineate the determinants of population growth. Investigations of population process which do not incorporate conscious control are problematic for yet another reason. It is often extremely difficult to ascertain the incidence of infanticide, abortion, coitus interruptus, or abstinence. One can appreciate the difficulty of eliciting information on such delicate topics. In no other situation are the age, sex, and marital status of the anthropologist likely to be so important. Special care and attention must be devoted to this topic if results are to be forthcoming. Because anthropologists and others have demonstrated that the practice of fertility regulation is a cross-cultural universal, varying in method and intensity of use, but never absent, studies confined to analysis of deterministic variables only must be regarded as seriously limited in aim and scope as they effectively cut us off from the possibility of investigating how people plan and manage the creation of the family unit. It is more useful to begin with the knowledge that our cultural heritage includes means of fertility and mortality control, and to attempt to explain motivations for family size and composition in varying sociocultural contexts. A number of anthropologists studying population self-regulation in underdeveloped countries have begun to attempt such explanations. Although new, this research has already taken a very definite direction. Anthropologists studying population selfregulation in Third World countries have singled out socioeconomic conditions as the principal determinant of motivation at the individual level. People devise and execute strategies for family formation in response to their perceptions and understandings of the social and economic context in which they find themselves. Although there are many other factors which could motivate people to desire a given family size (e.g., religious factors), current investigation has indicated that socioeconomic conditions are critical in determining strategies of family formation. Although these studies show promise of shedding new light on population dynamics in the Third World, they can be criticized on the grounds that they utterly disregard the deterministic factors, although infant mortality levels, maternal health, breast-feeding patterns, etc, undoubtedly affect levels of population growth. Perhaps these factors have been set aside to provoke an appreciation of the self-regulatory process which is long overdue in Third World population research. But these deterministic factors should not be altogether ignored; they can be considered as aspects of the environment to which people respond in regulating their numbers. They do not have to be treated as first causes but can be analyzed as important parts of the total environment affecting the individual in addition to self-regulatory variables. This paper will argue that both sets of factors affect demographic process and that to focus on one set of factors to the exclusion of the other guarantees an incomplete explanation of levels of growth. However, a model in which all factors are thrown together, each to explain its "part of the variance," is to be avoided. A preferable approach is one which takes the self-regulatory process to be primary, but which incorporates deterministic factors that affect people who are attempting consciously to control their family (or community) size. I now turn to a critical examination of the anthropological population literature itself with an eye to what can be learned from existing work and where future research might be profitably directed.

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FACTORS IN POPULATION GROWTH

DETERMINISTIC EXPLANATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH

Demographic Transition Theory

The most influential theory which attempts to explain population growth in the underdeveloped world is the theory of the demographic transition. It is not anthropological in origin. Nevertheless, it is widely accepted in anthropology (see for example Benedict 1959; Geertz 1963; Elahi 1975; Frisancho, Klayrnan, and Matos 1976; Kaplan 1976; Page, Friedlaender, and Moellering 1977), and in most other disciplines as well, although, as Teitelbaum (1975) has pointed out, recent evaluations of demographic transition theory have been very critical. This theory is discussed first because it is so taken for granted in much of the literature as to be axiomatic. Demographic transition theory posits three stages of demographic development. (See Thompson 1928, Notestein 1953, and Teitelbaum 1975 for exposition of the theory.) The first or "preindustrial" stage is characterized by high mortality rates deriving from the absence of modem medicine, sanitation, and transportation (of food during famines). In this situation high fertility is necessary for the maintenance of society, and fertility levels are close to or at the biological maximum of the population. Birth and death rates are in balance. In the next stage of demographic development preindustrial peoples adopt the aforementioned modem practices which lead to a dramatic decline in mortality. High fertility, however, is maintained out of respect for the traditions of the "extended familyM5 which evolved when children were an important source of agricultural labor (Teitelbaum 1975). It is at this stage that the "population explosion" occurs; birth and death rates are out of balance. In the final phase the balance is restored. The transition to low fertility occurs because urban, industrial life lowers the economic value of children, specifically by widespread or compulsory education which removes children from the labor force. On the face of it, demographic transition theory appears to offer an explanation of population growth which involves a motivational factor, i.e., the economic value of children. However, it implies that during the second stage of demographic development individuals maintain high fertility essentially out of habit. It is not until people are industrialized that they can rationally assess the costs and benefits of children, at which point they realize that children are of low or negative economic value. During stage two children merely appear to be economically valuable, because of outdated ideologies. Thus population growth in underdeveloped countries is explained by the widespread mortality control afforded by modem techniques and by adherence to a tradition of high fertility. Rational self-regulation of population size occurs only after industrialization.

Frequency of Coitus
Frequency of coitus is a variable which is implicit in the social structural explanations which seek to explain levels of population growth via several factors: age at marriage, family form, and presence or absence of migratory spouses. It is assumed that these social structural variables predict the probability of a person engaging in coitus according to proximity or presence of spouse. As currently formulated, age at marriage, family form, and presence of spouse are not seen as variables influencing the individual's desired family size (and thus factors in self-regulation). Frequency of coitus is sometimes termed "exposure to pregnancy"; often it is assumed to be perfectly obvious and left unstated. Nag has done several studies which evaluate the degree to which frequency of coitus affects fertility rates. In one study he examined family types in India to ascertain whether

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high Indian fertility could be attributed to the prevalence of joint families (Nag 1967). He found that fertility in joint families was actually lower than in simple families so that the joint family system could not account for the high rate of 1ndian fertility. Nag explained the difference in fertility rates between joint and simple families by frequency of coitus which varied according to privacy and adherence to taboos on sexual intercourse during menstruation. Simple families enjoyed more privacy and adhered to taboos less often (Nag does not explain why) and thus had higher fertility. In a study of fertility in Barbados, Nag (1971) found that low fertility there (in comparison to other "non-industrial" societies) could be explained partially by unstable conjugal relationships which are characterized by a "considerable period of time between successive unions when women are not exposed to the risk of pregnancy at all" (1971:109). This was a partial explanation, however, and Nag incorporated other variables which will be discussed later. In another study Nag's data on frequency of intercourse show that this variable by itself cannot explain fertility (Nag 1972). In order to counter the notion held by the Indian elite that sex is an "indoor sport" for the poor, Nag compared rates of coital frequency for Indian women and American white women of corresponding age groups. He found that American rates of coitus were higher than Indian rates, while Indian fertility was higher; therefore other factors were operative in determining fertility rates (1972:237). Montgomery (1976) studied the relationship between family form and fertility in southern India. He compared fertility rates in four types of families: lineal extended, collateral extended, lineal-collateral extended, and nonextended (1976:51). His data showed a "limited degree of interrelationship" between family form and fertility for southern Indians. As family form was a poor predictor of fertility level, Montgomery advocated that research efforts focus on social, economic, and environmental factors to explain variation in growth rates (1976:56). Gulick and Gulick (1975) found that early marriage of women in the Iranian city of Isfahan contributed to population growth because of exposure to pregnancy (1975:252). Although they observed other factors to be at work in determining fertility levels, they reported that parents did not regulate family size to any appreciable extent. Though most wives wanted to limit the number of children they had, they were hampered by lack of culturally appropriate contraception and by influential mothers and mothers-in-law who encouraged pregnancy and early marriage. Nash and Nash (1963) studied population growth in Upper Burma. They chose this region because its growth rate was low for an underdeveloped area. They examined many possible causal factors and concluded that the "population retarding factors" were: late age at marriage, high percentage of unmarried adults, low rate of remarriage, high infant mortality, and abortion (p. 253). Riley (1976) evaluated Nash and Nash's (1963) analysis by comparing growth rates in Thailand and Burma. He maintained that the two countries have comparable culture, society, and economy so that the social structural factors cited by Nash and Nash (1963) as influencing growth could be evaluated through a comparison of the two countries. He found that the Thai rate of growth was greater than the Burmese primarily because of a higher rate of infant mortality in Burma and not because of the frequency of coitus variable associated with late age at marriage, high percentage of unmarried adults, and low rate of remarriage. He found in fact that frequency of coitus accounted for only about 5 percent of the difference in fertility rates between the two countries (Riley 1976:47). Roberts (1975) compared population growth rates for Fijians and Indian emigrants in Fiji from 1921 to 1956. Indians had consistently higher rates of increase. Roberts attributed this to a number of factors: lower age of marriage for Indian women, higher

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percentage of unmarried Fijian women, and a lower Indian mortality rate. On the other hand, he noted that in 1956 Fijian women had more "paid occupations" than Indian women and that this factor may also explain differential fertility between the two groups. A more detailed analysis, of the relative contribution of each factor such as Riley's (1976) analysis, might shed further light on the Fijian case. These studies show that the factor of frequency of coitus by itself does not go very far toward explaining population growth levels. This variable is important because age at marriage is so consistently employed as an explanation of fertility levels, especially by demographers. By assuming that it is merely the frequency of coitus in marriage which is the critical factor in fertility levels, it is easy to overlook the possibility that families are formed upon marriage deliberately and consciously, and do not simply result as a byproduct of the marriage bed. A clearer understanding of the relationship between creation of the family unit, frequency of coitus, and marriage requires attention to factors influencing individual desires for family size and composition.
Breast -feeding

Lactational amenorrhea associated with breast-feeding is a variable used by some investigators to explain variation in fertility rates in the underdeveloped world. Although there is currently a controversy as to the actual degree of contraceptive protection afforded by breast-feeding and as to the physiological processes which are at work (see Frisch and Revelle 1970; Frisch and McArthur 1974; Knodel 1977; Simpson-Htbert 1977; Van Ginneken 1977; Winikoff 1978), anthropologists have begun to incorporate this variable into their analyses of population growth in underdeveloped countries where the impact of European modes of production and ideologies has decreased the incidence and duration of breast-feeding. Since the practice of breast-feeding may continue to decline in underdeveloped nations due to the efforts of multinational corporations to promote infant formula, an understanding of its contraceptive effects is particularly important. Although it is not known how breast-feeding prolongs postpartum amenorrhea, there are two major hypotheses. The first is that of Frisch and her colleagues (Frisch and Revelle 1970; Frisch and McArthur 1974; Frisch 1978) who believe that undernourished women or women with little body fat do not have enough body fat or energy in calories for menstruation to return after pregnancy. They believe that high levels of lactation "drain" the body of the energy required for ovulation. Other investigators (Buchanan 1975; Knodel 1977; Simpson-Htbert 1977; Huffman, Chowdhury, and Mosley 1978) feel that suckling practices may be much more important in determining the length of postpartum amenorrhea in lactating mothers than are diet and weight. They postulate a direct, positive relationship between the frequency and duration of breast-feeding, and lactational amenorrhea which operates via the hormone prolactin. Production of prolactin is stimulated by suckling, especially during the first three months of breast-feeding (Buchanan 1975). This means that full breast-feeding will prolong lactational amenorrhea much more effectively than partial breast-feeding, and that feeding on demand will be more effective than a few scheduled feedings. Huffman et al. (1978) studied lactational amenorrhea among 2,048 women in Bangladesh. They found that lactational amenorrhea was only slightly related to nutritional status and that more significant factors were maternal age, socioeconomic status, and the supplemental feeding of infants. Investigators engaged in breast-feeding research concur that much more study is needed before lactational amenorrhea is adequately understood (SimpsonHtbert 1977; May 1978). To date, only a few anthropological studies have related brease.feeding practices and

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population growth in underdeveloped countries. But this deterministic factor may prove important in explaining current high fertility rates in places where breast-feeding has declined, especially if future research supports those who claim a substantial contraceptive effect for breast-feeding. However, this factor by itself is unlikely to account for population growth in underdeveloped nations for several reasons. First, prolonged breast-feeding is still universally practiced in the rural areas of underdeveloped countries (Buchanan 1975; Knodel1977). These areas maintain high rates of growth and in many cases higher rates than neighboring urban areas where breast-feeding is declining. This is true, for example, in areas of India, Chile, Mexico, the Philippines, and Singapore (Berg 1973). If breast-feeding afforded contraceptive protection to the point of lowering the birth rate, we would expect the reverse to be true. Next, it is possible to have an average completed family size of 11 children per woman even while breast-feeding, as the Hutterites do (May 1978:494). This statement requires qualification. The Hutterites are an extremely well nourished population, so if Frisch is right, then their short five-month period of lactational amenorrhea is not remarkable. Hutterite women schedule infant feedings because of their demanding work schedules, supplement other foods early in the infant's life, use pacifiers, and ciaim not to enjoy breast-feeding, so the suckling hypothesis could account equally well for the short duration of amenorrhea. But the Hutterite case shows that it is possible to breast-feed and reproduce somewhere near the biological maximum at the same time. Since women in rural areas of underdeveloped countries still breast-feed their infants, today's higher fertility rates cannot simply be the result of the disappearance of breastfeeding, as argued above. However, lactational amenorrhea could still be important if the contraceptive effect of breast-feeding has declined due to behavioral or physiological changes associated with breast-feeding. Let us consider the current ideas on lactational amenorrhea and changes in diet and/or suckling practices and how they might apply to underdeveloped countries. Diet seems an unlikely explanation since it would be difficult to make a case that people in most underdeveloped countries are better nourished today than a few hundred years ago. People have iess control over food production than formerly when agriculturalists were relativelv self-sufficient, Land shortage, the switch from food crops to cash crops, and declining productivity due to soil depletion, erosion, and other problems of overuse contribute to food problems. Famine is not uncommon. (See Lapp6 and Collins 1977 for a discussion of food shortage in the Third World.) Grain or tuber diets have long been the norm in these countries, so a dramatic shift from one type of food to another has not occurred. On the other hand, it is likely that suckling practices have changed; women in many countries may have an increased workload due to participation in the cash economy. (Women themselves may participate in cash-earningactivities or they may take on additional subsistence or household tasks as other family members shift their efforts to the cash sector-or both.) Nerlove (1974) has shown that women's workload and intensity of breast-feeding are inversely related, so current breast-feeding practices would yield less contraceptive effect. However, even now, periods of lactational amenorrhea averaging 18-24 months have been reported from several countries (Huffman et al. 1978:1,155). It is not known how much longer they might have been in the past. If we take the birth intervals of nomadic IKung as a baseline, we find that four-year birth intervals (May 1978:493) imply a postpartum amenorrhea period of about 36 months-significantly higher than the 18-24 month average for underdeveloped countries today. We simply do not know whether this provides a baseline with which to compare precolonial populations. But it seems that since precolonial peoples were primarily horticulturalists, they
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would be more comparable to the village IKung whose birth interval of less than three years (May 1978:493) implies a period of lactational amenorrhea of just about 18-24 months, exactly as reported for some underdeveloped countries. Therefore if we are to postulate higher fertility for underdeveloped countries today than in their precolonial past, it seems that the factor of changes in breast-feeding patterns alone is not likely to provide adequate explanation. There remains another significant factor in the problem: infant mortality. The results of several studies indicate that breast-fed infants have significantly higher chances of surviving to one year than those who are not breast-fed, although the extent of the difference varies regionally (Knodel 1977:1,112). The net demographic effect of shorter periods of lactational amenorrhea and increased infant mortality due to decreased breast-feeding remains to be conclusively calculated. Knodel's research has suggested that most of the increase in fertility to be expected from a shift from breast- to bottle-feeding would be counteracted by the reduced chances of survival associated with artificial means of infant feeding (1977:1,114-1,115). The following studies consider lactational amenorrhea and population growth in underde~elo~edregions. Romaniuk (1974) compared fertility levels of older and younger James Bay Indian women. He constructed complete reproductive histories for 427 evermarried women. He explained high fertility among young James Bay women as a function of three deterministic variables: decreased breast-feeding, less pregnancy wastage due to "medical progress," and less separation of spouses as ~ndians gave up nomadism. Romaniuk asserted that these variables fully explained increasing fertility in the modem context and stated that "relaxation of fertility restrictive customs" (abortion, infanticide, etc.) did not play a role in modernization (1974:350). Bowers (1971) examined the demographic characteristics of populations in montane New Guinea which are undergoing "modernization." Her analysis-of increasing fertility levels in these societies is similar to Romaniuk's (1974). She pointed to shorter periods of lactation, increased access to medical facilities, i n d the adlability of tinned hsh as the primary determinants of increased fertility. Bowers did not hypothesize about the mechanism by which tinned fish affects fertility; possibly the additional calories or protein provided.by this food were thought to enhance fertility. Hinshaw, Pyeatt, and Habicht (1972) studied population growth in Highland Guatemala. They studied three communities, utilizing data from the past 35 years. They found that both mortality and fertility rates declined. Mortality, especially child mortality, declined more quickly than fertility, resulting in population growth. They explained the declining rate of fertility as a result of the decline in child mortality: lactational amenorrhea was maintained longer since breast-feeding was not interrupted due to the death of a child. The authors also postulated a "culturally prescribed family size" (Hinshaw et al. 1972:220) which people attempted to achieve. They concluded that "differences in birth and natural increase rates result as much from physiological and cultural factors not consciously controlled as from the efforts of the people to influence population increase" (1972:216). However, the authors stated that one community achieved longer birth intervals, and hence smaller families, because of "a heightened sense of responsibility for keeping children alive." This sense of responsibility was due to a nearby health clinic, a rising standard of living, and higher expectations for children (1972:228). Formerly, parents in the same village believed more in "predestination and fate" and thus felt less "personal guilt" regarding matters of child care (1972:228). The authors suggest that when the traditional cultural beliefs about "fate" and "parental responsibility" of Highland Guatemalans are affected by such modern institutions as hospitals, they change in a positive direction. Parents behave more responsibly toward

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their children than they did before their contact with agents of modernization. Traditional peasants appear in their familiar guise as fatalistic; they are depicted as accepting large families which result, paradoxically, from their putative neglect of existing children. Modernizing peasants, on the other hand, gain control of their reproductive lives by adopting new attitudes about predestination and child care. Fertility levels among traditional peasants are seen to be determined by the strictly deterministic factor of breast-feeding, whereas fertility among modernizing peasants is modulated by conscious control. Character In a large study of the fertility of women in villages in Kenya, Mexico, and the Philippines, Reining and her associates (1977) studied "motivation to limit fertility" within each village. They determined that "character" was one of the key variables in explaining family size (p. 98). Character was defined as an intrinsic personal trait determined by historical and socioeconomic conditions. Once formed it was not subject to self-regulation or to changes in socioeconomic status. As the authors saw it, poor women failed to regulate fertility because of character traits associated with poverty. More prosperous women did regulate fertility because of character traits associated with prosperity. "The poorer women, more passive and unconsciously despairing, were continuing to have the traditional large families" (Reining 1977:98). Women "without hope" (a character trait) exhibited "ac. quiescence to large family size" (1977:7). The authors predicted that

. . . the most characterologically productive women of the cash-laboring group will be the first to limit their families significantly. Such women understand clearly that in the newly emerging cash economy they can only support so many children and that limiting their families is important for economic survival [1977:97].
Reining's study involved a large number of investigators, a large sample, and a crosscultural format, and is of recent vintage, and yet fertility is explained by a rather unadorned version of culture-of-povertytheory. Poor people are tradition-bound and fail to regulate family size because they do not clearly perceive their socioeconomic situation. Their more prosperous counterparts have greater insights into their actual situation and choose to limit offspring, behaving in a rational manner. Like many investigators (e.g., demographic transition theorists, Hinshaw et al. [1972]) Reining links large families, tradition, poverty, and irrationality. This approach has been severely criticized as uninspired and ethnocentric by other investigators who find the stereotype of the fatalistic peasant of little use in understanding demographic process. The work of these investigators is discussed below. Venereal Disease In a large statistical cross-cultural study of fertility in "non-industrial" societies, Nag (1968) found significant associations for only three variables: postpartum abstinence, sterility, and venereal disease. These three variables were of course associated with low fertility, and, as Nag pointed out, sterility and venereal disease are causally related. He concluded that venereal disease leading to sterility is the most important cause of low fertility in nonindustrial societies (1968:146). Nag's paper is to be commended for underscoring the importance of a variable which is often overlooked but which can have dramatic effects on fertility.

Nardi]

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Chiefly Control
Anthropologists working primarily with Oceanic societies have proposed that precolonial populations successfully limited their populations via control exerted at the community level by chiefs or community leaders. In precontact times these leaders were careful to promote population regulation because they were aware of the ecological limits of their environments. They may have been motivated by a desire to foster the well-being of their subjects, to avoid channeling land and labor into food crops, or to maintain political buffer zones between rival groups (by reserving land which might be inhabited or cultivated otherwise) (Nardi 1974). Population control ceased when chiefly authority was undercut by European penetration. ~ a t in a support of this hypothesis come primarily from Oceania, but Polgar (1971, 1972) suggested that it might be of general applicability. Firth (1970) reported that Tikopian population growth was regulated by bachelorhood of the young male members of a family and by "sea-voyaging" (one-way tickets for young men selected by chiefs). Decisions regarding marriage and sea-voyaging were made according to assessment of food resources by chiefs and family heads. Firth also noted that coitus interruptus, abortion, and infanticide were practiced so it is not clear whether or not individual self-regulation was also important. However, it is clear that after missionaries established themselves in Tikopia they discouraged abortion, infanticide, seavoyaging, and bachelorhood. Borrie, Firth, and Spillius did a restudy of the Tikopian population in 1952 (Borrie, Firth, and Spillius 1957). The use of abortion and infanticide were apparent. The period of study coincided with a famine which the authors suggested may have motivated the use of these fertility-regulating techniques. Borrie et al. maintained that mortality, not birth control, limited the rate of growth to 1.4 percent per annum during the period from 1929 to 1952. However, infanticide and abortion were practiced and mortality figures included infanticides so that a purely deterministic explanation based on mortality rates requires re-examination. Bayliss-Smith (1975a) examined the demographic history of several central Polynesian outlier populations. He observed three demographic stages: decline, stability, and rapid increase. He attributed the r a ~ i d increase to missionaries who forbade the once-common practices of abortion and infanticide. On the island of Sikiana the government issued a prohibition on infanticide and abortion which was followed by a "sudden spurt of population growth . . . unexplained by mortality" (1975a:334). Bayliss-Smith suggested that the prohibition was "reinforced by the decay of traditional authority . . . and the conversion of the population to Christianity in 1930" (1975a:334). Carroll (1975) provided a slightly different perspective on the loss of population regulation at the community level. He studied Nukuoro, a Polynesian outlier. He hypothesized that in the contemporary colonial situation, community members "are rapidly losing their sense of how the ecosystem fits together" (1975:393). Because of a high rate of out-migration Nukuoroites do not really know how many of their number really exist. Carroll conjectured that if for some reason they all had to return to Nukuoro there would be a population crisis. It is quite possible that with changing labor and immigration laws in the Pacific, a large number of Nukuoroites might be forced to return home, so Carroll's concern is not unwarranted. However, for now, out-migration is an effective form of population regulation in Nukuoro. Bayliss-Smith (1975b) argued in a similar way for the island of Ontong-Java. He suggested that the initial increase in population in Ontong-Java was a response to depopulation (1975b:473). He attributed fertility increase during the 1960s to a reduced period

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of postpartum abstinence, improved health of women, reduction in fetal loss and infant deaths, improved female longevity, and less widowhood. However, he concluded:
The responsibility for the decision-making that controls, or fails to control, the demographic system is . . . being transferred from the village level to the national level, . . . this change in spatial scale . . . seems to be accompanied by a loss in the efficiency of a population's response to stress signals from its environment [1975b:472].

Bayliss-Smith maintained that when Ontong-Javanese society was "small-scale" it was characterized by "the conscious use of fertility checks" (1975b:473). However, since Ontong-Javanese now migrate to the Solomon Islands to ezrn cash, they have attained a "national" perspective which does not recognize the need for fertility limitation. As Bayliss-Smith sees it, the current population increase is a result of the outcome of biological process, i.e., improved health of women and the other factors cited, whereas before, growth was controlled in response to stress signals in the e n ~ i r o n m e n t . ~ The loss-of-chiefly-control hypothesis incorporates some aspects of both the deterministic and self-regulatory approaches. However, it is ambiguous with regard to the actual mechanism triggering growth. Did people consciously choose to have large families out of respect for Christian belief, gladly abandoning abortion and infanticide? Or when these methods were banned by missionaries were people simply stuck without the tried and true methods they had come to rely upon, momentarily lacking in suitable technology? Some of the same investigators who suggested that missionary influence affected fertility have also proposed that postcontact population growth was a response to the extreme depopulation caused by the spread of European diseases (Polgar 1971; Bayliss-Smith 1975b). Since the recovery of the population was concurrent with mission efforts and overall European penetration, it is difficult to separate out possible motivational factors for a desire to repopulate on the one hand and adherence to religious teachings or government edicts on the other hand. In any case, growth rates have continued to be high in Oceanic (and other) populations in spite of the availability of family planning services and government programs to encourage their use. Lambert (1975) provided an example of the failure of government programs of population control to limit population growth in a study of Makin Islanders in the Gilberts. He suggested that Europeans were responsible for the cessation of infanticide, abortion, observance of the custom of postpartum abstinence, and the practice of periodically "sending large groups of people into exile," all of which served to regulate population growth. In addition, Lambert observed that population increase occurred after "the natives began to obtain access to Western medicines" (1975:26&). As a means of dealing with their rising population Makin Islanders have developed voluntary associations for improving agricultural production and for increasing income. Although the government has instituted a family planning program because it is concerned about overpopulation, the program has not been effective in limiting fertility. Lambert noted that Makinese oppose contraception on religious grounds but also that children are valued because they perform household tasks and generate cash by working away from Makin and remitting to relatives who have not left the island. Further study is required to untangle the effects of European medicine, religious belief, and the economic value of children on Makin.
Summay

Most of these studies have focused rather narrowly on deterministic factors in explaining levels of population growth in Third World countries. Some investigators such as Nag

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(1972) and Montgomery (1976) have concluded that this approach permits limited understanding of the demographic process in underdeveloped nations, while others have seen fit to explain population growth purely in terms of a few deterministic variables. At the worst these studies leave us with the conclusion that the societies studied practice no birth control, increase up to their biological limit, and are qualitatively different from preindustrial and "modem" societies where birth control is practiced in a rational manner. At best they bring to our attention important deterministic factors which can be handled in future analyses in more complex ways. Instead of continued attempts to explain population growth in the underdeveloped world in simplistic deterministic fashion, perhaps we can look forward to more sophisticated models which incorporate these variables but which stress self-regulation by individuals.
SELF-REGULATION

Value of Children Anthropologists interested in self-regulatory variables in population growth in underdeveloped countries have devoted their attention primarily to the factor of labor demand. Children are produced for the purpose of their potential labor power. Though there are many different versions of demand-for-labor theory in anthropological population analysis, they are united by the premise that family size can be predicted from the labor demands of the productive system. Some anthropological applications of demand-for-labor theory derive from Marxist theory and consider "social forces" rather than self-regulation by individuals. However they are included here as theories of self-regulation since they imply it (rather than any deterministic factors). Adam Smith (1776) provided an early formulation of demand-for-labor theory. He believed that "the demand for men necessarily regulates the production of men." Coontz (1961), an economist, attributed his elaboration of demand-for-labor theory to Smith. Since Coontz has influenced recent anthropological work in population, his theory will be reviewed here. The basis of Coontz's theory is that demand for labor regulates the supply of labor, or fertility: "Population is the dependent variable reflecting both long-and-short-run changes in demand for labor" (1961:2). Coontz considered that a reduction in the quality of labor with a concomitant increase in the quantity needed, is the situation most favorable to population growth (1961:172). Coontz's theory is a direct challenge to demographic transition theory. Where demographic transition theory attributes population increase in underdeveloped countries to one change only-that of mortality decline-Coontz attributed it both to a change in mortality and an important change in the economic system, increased demand for labor.

...

It is generally held that the increase in population in colonial areas is due entirely to the mortality decline. . . . Certainly . . . mortality [is reduced]. However, unless in the long-run there are . . . changes in demand for labor, a continued increase in population is inconceivable
[1961:192].

An increase in family size must be accounted for by some phenomenon which Coontz saw as demand for labor, stimulated by the imposition of the colonial economy in which labor is needed to exploit the agricultural and extractive capacities of the colonies. Marx's version of demand-for-labor theory appeared in Capital (1887). He noted that laborers produce a "relative surplus population" which forms a disposable industrial reserve army. Although he did not say exactly how or why this occurs, it was his observa-

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tion that a portion of the laboring population is unemployed or underemployed- a mass of human material always ready for exploitation. Marx's conceptualization of demand for labor is problematic in its sketchiness. Underlying his hypothesis is one of two propositions. Either (1) individual parents are in a situation of severe underemployment but in which the extreme poverty of the family can nevertheless be alleviated by children's economic contributions, or (2) the "needs of capitalism" dictate a mass of human material always ready for exploitation. The latter interpretation has been utilized in recent Marxist analyses (e.g., Yengoyan 1974; Faris 1975) although it is unsatisfactory in its simplistic functionalism. It is to be hoped that future Marxist analyses consider the question not from the point of view of abstract capitalist forces but from that of the unemployed and underemployed proletariat. Faris (1975) hypothesized that in situations where there is "producer control" there will be lower birth rates. This is because capitalism requires increasing population growth as it requires expanding production. With the emergence of class structures "producers no longer really control decisions about population planning, but reproduce in terms of the demands of the production system, now controlled by the ruling classes" (1975:265). In support of this point Faris cited Mamdani's (1974) work (discussed more fully below) which details the economic advantages to the individual peasant of large family size. Faris suggested that when producer control is implemented birth rates will fall, in fact "reproduction planning will . . . come into being with no trouble" (1975:265). Why this should happen is not intuitively obvious. Faris cited contemporary China as an example of this move to reproduction planning. However, Side1 (1972) and Banister (1977) reported that massive educational campaigns including the employment of local health workers to disseminate information, widespread distribution of contraceptive methods, and successful government efforts to transform the creation of a small family into a meaningful political act have in fact caused Chinese birth rates to decline. In addition, an increase in the age of marriage and celibacy before marriage have been enjoined to a great extent. This does not square with Faris's notion of trouble-free reproduction planning, and his Chinese example is unconvincing. Yengoyan (1974) analyzed fertility in different sectors of the rural Philippine economy. He compared fertility levels among fishpond owners, fishpond laborers, deep-sea fishers, and tenant farmers. These occupations have different labor requirements and Yengoyan maintained that birth rates and "indices of fertility are . . . responses to differential levels of labor inputs" (1974:58). His analysis showed that fishpond owners had the smallest families (2-5 children) and tenant farmers the largest (7-8). Deep-sea fishers and fishpond laborers were intermediate (exact family sizes for these groups were not given). Yengoyan is not entirely consistent in his analysis of fertility and labor requirements, sometimes arguing at the level of the individual, and other times at that of the group. He explained that the fishpond owners have lower fertility because their operations require little labor and much capital. They do not seek family labor and have a "perceivable ideology" that many children are a burden. Fishpond laborers and deep-sea fishers do have "large" families. The "excess" labor of these families migrates to seek employment in sugar and rice cultivation. At this point Yengoyan's explanation is more Marxian as he asserts.
Exceu labor moves from fishponds and deep-sea fishing economies to rice and sugar cultivation, both of which have the ability to absorb labor for increasing specialization of agricultural tasks. Furthermore, high labor inputs are causally interrelated with the maintenance of increasing sugar and rice production. . . . The fertility of local populations which are involved in rice and sugar cultivation is high due to this continuous process of labor absorption [1974:64].

Yengoyan here declared fertility rates to be an outcome of the labor demands of the pro-

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ductive system, but he did not enumerate the factors influencing the decisions of the individual laborer as he did for the fishpond owners. Rather he maintained that high fertility is a necessary feature of the agricultural mode of production and therefore exists: "With the existence of a sugar industry based on labor intensity and the absence of mechanization, the internal popGlation must respond to labor demands in maintaining and increasing levels of production" (1974:67, emphasis added). Yengoyan's explanation of the fertility of fishpond owners took into account both the mode of production and individual decision-making processes. Since Yengoyan could predict fertility level from the mode of production a n d explain how individuals fit into the economy of which they are a part, this approach seems more fruitful than stopping at the more abstract level. Prediction of fertility rates will be enhanced by careful analyses of individual decision makers to ascertain exactly which aspects of the mode of production bear upon their decisions. Yengoyan hinted that further analysis of his Philippine data might lead in this direction, noting that the sisal economy in Brazil (which is similar to the Philippine economy) "forc[ed] more family members into the labor market in order to maintain household incomes at existence levels" (1974:70). Other recent Marxist analyses suggest that the "creation of a labor force," i.e., high rates of fertility, in underdeveloped countries is the result of economic pressures on the individual. In study of rice-prbducing peasants in West Sumatra, ~ a h (1975) n found that fertility was responsive to a demand for cash generated by taxation and fluctuations in the price of rice. "The periodic depressions in the rice-producing areas, combined with the need for a cash income in order to pay the tax, served to create a labor force" (1975:149). Some studies have focused on demand for labor in the individual household. Children are seen as valuable because they contribute to household production and/or earn cash through participation in the market economy. They may migrate to areas where wage work can be found and remit money to parents on a regular basis. They are also a form of old-age security, caring and providing for parents who are aged or disabled. Many anthropologists have noted that parents regard children as economic assets. Richards and Reining (1958) compared urban and rural Baganda households. They reported that in rural households children were valued because they provided household help, increased wealth, and enhanced household status. Costs of children were low. In town the costs of children increased dramatically because of school fees and higher urban prices, and they were therefore of less economic value. Swartz (1969) studied the way in which beliefs about children affect the number and sex of children desired, and actual family size and composition. He compared three East African societies- the rural Bena and Hehe of Tanzania and the urban Luo of Kenya. He found that in all three groups having children was an important aspect of being in good moral standing in the community. All spoke of their children as wealth and discussed the material benefits and old-age security to be gained through children. Gulick and Gulick (1975) reported that the Iranian city dwellers they studied did not assess the costs and benefits of children. But thev noted that Iranians sav that " 'children are poor people's only fortune,' " and that parents hope "for vicarious achievement through the worldly success of their children" (1975:290). Children also provide old-age support to Iranian parents. Some anthropologists have tried to pinpoint more specifically than these studies the conditions under which children's labor is of value to parental households. These investigators concur that in a situation characterized by poverty, a demand for cash, and opportunities for productive labor for children, children are likely to be viewed by parents as economically valuable. In a discussion of fertility regulation in different sociopolitical contexts, Polgar (1972)

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observed that the overall demand for labor in underdeveloped countries was paralleled by demand for labor in the peasant household as peasants strove to meet the demands of overlords, tax farmers, and money lenders. Polgar maintained that, up to a point, the cost of children in peasant households was offset by their work contribution during seasonal peaks of high labor demand (1972:207-208). He (1971) hypothesized that in situations of declining agricultural yields per acre which characterize many underdeveloped economies, large numbers of children are especially valuable to increase crop yields through labor intensification. Where external authorities impose production quotas for foods that will be consumed outside the peasant family, a situation equivalent to declining yields is created and labor again becomes extremely valuable. Mamdani (1974) provided useful insights into how children's labor affects the fertility decisions of Indian peasants. He studied a village in which a large well-funded family planning program (the Harvard Khanna study) had failed in its objective of lowering fertility. In this study the villagers accepted the birth control pills offered by the program administrators, but threw them away (or, in one case, constructed a modernistic sculpture of them). Mamdani interviewed people of different castes to find out how children figured in their economic strategies. He found that for farmers the cheap labor provided by sons was their most valuable asset. Not only could sons work the family land, but some sons could be sent away to work as wage laborers, accumulating savings which could then be used to purchase more land. Having many sons allowed a farmer to diversify his economic "portfolio." Mamdani argued that today's farmer cannot afford to be concerned about tomorrow's fragmentation of land- that is the next generation's problem. Labor is the current problem. He also argued that although Indian farm wage laborers may be seasonally unemployed, with a large family more can be earned and saved during the busy season. An interesting case in Mamdani's study was that of the blacksmiths. Blacksmiths in Indian villages now have very little work. It would seem that large families would be burdensome since the sons of a blacksmith cannot be put to work as can those of the farmer. However, the blacksmiths explained to Mamdani that sons are economically valuable because they can be sent out to do wage labor and save a portion of their earnings. With these savings one son can learn the skills required to work on the new machines coming to the village as some farmers mechanize. Eventually the wages of this son can be used to pay school fees to educate another son who may then get a well-paying job. The earnings of the educated son then go to help sons down the line. Mamdani reported that the villagers did not believe that the Harvard study was really a study because it is obvious that children are a necessity (1974:27). They were further puzzled because the study cost so much-clearly such an expensive project must have an important purpose, although the villagers could never figure out what it was. Marshall (1972) also studied the economic value of children in an Indian village. His findings were similar to Mamdani's. In addition, he reported that a man could borrow money more easily if the creditor knew that he had several sons who would share the obligation to pay a debt; so sons were an important form of collateral. Kinship ties established between families at the time of a marriage of a son or daughter implied financial help which could be counted upon in the future. Children engendered few costs, including opportunity costs. Neither husbands nor wives produced children at the expense of any other economic activity. White (1973) studied population growth in colonial Java. He drew on Coontz's (1961) demand-for-labor theory but placed the focus of study on demand for labor within the family (White 1973:230). He reasoned that in Java, a "western-induced drop in mortality" would have intensified the use of traditional forms of birth control (such as infan-

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ticide, abortion, and possibly systematic undernourishment of children) had there been nothing to encourage the maintenance of high levels of fertility (1973:224). However, high fertility was encouraged by the execution of the colonial policies of the Dutch who demanded taxes and rent of the Javanese peasants, requiring the peasants to increase production to fulfill their obligations to the government. The only way for peasants to increase production was to increase labor, which they produced themselves in the form of children. White hypothesized that (1) children probably became net producers at very young ages, (2)Javanese peasants endeavored to maintain standards of living and leisure, and (3) at certain times of the year adult labor was maximally utilized to perform seasonal agricultural tasks at which times children's labor was extremely valuable. White's theory suggests that the imposition of a colonial economy which calls upon the individual household to increase production will lead to an increase in population if the household has little or no capital to invest. This situation can continue into the postcolonial country in which the society and economy are conceived of as "underdeveloped" and agriculturalists still have only the production of labor power with which to produce income. White also noted that though many underdeveloped countries appear to have widespread unemployment, in fact people are not idle but are employed in "increasingly underproductive activities, that is, activities demanding increasingly long hours of labor to insure a minimal level of subsistence" (1973:219). White has conducted field studies of children's economic contributions to the household in contemporary Java (White 1975; Nag, White, and Peet 1978). This work makes a quantitative assessment of children's actual contributions to the household economy. Data from this research show that "the children in large families tend to work not less but more than those in small families" so that large families are actually more productive, probably because children in large families "are encouraged to begin work at an earlier age" and because "older children of large families are freer to engage in 'directly productive' activities because their younger siblings do the household chores" (Nag et al. 1978:299, emphasis added). Boulier (1976), Cain (1977), and Peet (Nag et al. 1978) have also conducted studies of children's labor in the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Nepal respectively. Their data indicate that children are economically valuable to their parents at young ages. Children's labor may also be economically valuable to parents if children migrate away from rural areas to towns or cities where wage labor work can be obtained. In many cases children remit cash to parents, even after they have grown. This cash may be a large portion of the parents' income. A study by Caldwell (1974, 1977) showed that in Nigeria Yoruba children who migrate to an urban area remit money to parents and also provide other benefits associated with urban life. They contribute money to village projects, ceremonies, and festivals which brings honor to their parents. They may use their influence in town to secure teachers, roads, electricity, or a water supply for their village. Parents can enjoy a visit to town, meet their children's important friends, or arrange for the education of another child (1974:19-20). Caldwell maintained that the high fertility of Yoruba villagers is explained by children's contribution to household labor and their potential as members of the urban elite. Villagers "maximize the chance of success" through
a kind of lucky dip principle, or the backing of many horses; with a large number of children there is a good chance that at least one will do well, and one elite salary will outweigh the earnings of a string of children working in traditional or poor urban occupations and will make up for expenditure on several educations. [In addition ;here is] the value of sibling chain of assistance [1974:40].

Many investigators have shown that migrants remit large portions of their earnings to

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their nonmigrant parents. Shankman's (1976) data showed that the remittances of Samoan overseas migrants totaled 50 percent of the cash income of Western Samoans in 1974 (1976:38). Average completed family size was 7.6 children. Shankman reviewed the literature on migrant remittances and found that this phenomenon is widespread, occurring in such places as Ghana, Nigeria, Upper Volta (Gugler 1968), Lesotho (Hance 1970), India (Lelyveld 1970), and Mexico (Miracle and Berry 1970)- Although the authors of these studies did not make the connection between migrant remittances and large family size as Caldwell did, further analysis to test the association seems warranted. A good test of the hypothesis concerning the economic value of children will be provided by studies done in underdeveloped countries with relatively low fertility. Unfortunately there are few studies available which evaluate children's labor value. Nag's (1971) study of fertility in Barbados is suggestive. This study indicated that when economic opportunities for utilizing children's labor are minimal, children are not of economic value and fertility levels are lower. Low fertility in Barbados during the 1940s was partially a function of increasing pressure on land, decreasing opportunities for emigration, and lack of prospects for rapid industrialization (1971:117). Family planning in Barbados has been accepted because of "knowledge among most people that the island has a very high density and few opportunities for increasing the standard of living" (1971:121). This study suggested that children could not be profitably employed because of land shortage, barriers to emigration and income from remittances, and few job prospects in the industrial sector. Children will be economically valuable only where opportunities exist for them to engage in income-producing work, or to assume tasks which allow parents to seek income-producing work. None of these studies of the economic value of children considers the effects of patterns of breast-feeding, levels of infant mortality, maternal health, or any of the other deterministic factors on the growth rate of the society studied. Although they speak to the issue of "high fertility," a more precise approach to the problem which would focus on exact family size is impossible. Parents in one society, Society A, may have a demand for household labor identical to that in Society B, and yet if women breast-feed for two years in the former and one year in the latter, family sizes may differ, other things being equal. Thus, although studies of the economic value of children have provided considerable insight into parental motivation for large families in Third World nations, most have failed to answer, or even to ask, Why are not these families even larger? If children are so valuable to parents, why aren't there even more of them? Family sizes rarely approach the average completed family size of the Hutterite community of 11 children per woman.' Nag et al. (1978) have suggested that very young children may impose a financial burden on families since they contribute little or nothing to their parents. Thus parents beginning their families attempt to avoid closely spaced births which would result in a brood of toddlers whose benefits do not yet exceed their costs. Spacing offspring of course tends toward decreasing family size, so that if true, this hypothesis would help to explain why family sizes are not larger even where children are economically valuable. Many other factors could also account for these less than maximum family sizes, including both deterministic and self-regulatory factors. Infant mortality, lactational amenorrhea, and maternal mortality and morbidity are some deterministic factors which should be considered. Even where children are economically valuable, women may not be willing to continue the physical burdens of pregnancy, childbearing, and breast-feeding after they have reached a certain family size, or to accept the consequences of short intervals hetween births. Families of, say, six or seven children may be deemed sufficient to fulf~ll demattds of econcmic utility, after which more children become superfluous.

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Women's Status

Another variable affecting fertility levels is thought to be women's status. It has become a commonplace in anthropological thinking that women's status in many societies is affected by their role as mothers. In many societies a woman is not really a fullfledged adult until she has borne a child. Her status may improve with the birth of each child, especially sons. One might assume that this would account for large family sizes among people in underdeveloped nations, to some extent at least. However, most studies which report this relationship between motherhood and adult status have been done in "tribal societies" (see Schapera 1966; Molnos 1968; Martin and Voorhies 1975 for example). Anthropologists have not explored the relationship between women's status and family size in the modem context of underdevelopment. Some anthropologists such as Polgar (1975) and Koenig (1977) have suggested that women's roles and status may be important. Gladwin, Teren, and Maxwell (1978) outlined a model of fertility in underdeveloped countries which included in its principal components (1) women working in the public sphere where there is competition between public work and child-raising time requirements (see below, Germain 1975) and (2) female vulnerability, that is, vulnerability of women to decisions made by others about sexual activity and reproduction (see Gulick and Gulick 1975). The model awaits testing and the authors surmised that, if it is correct, development programs which ignore the potential contribution of women's productive labor may have the effect of maintaining or even increasing high birth rates in underdeveloped countries. Studies in other disciplines have indicated that such variables as education, opportunities for work outside the home, and availability of child care may be critical. For example, Smock and Youssef (1977) studied fertility among Egyptian women. They found,
Through socialization, limited access to educational facilities, and erosion of the incentive for working, women are systematically stripped of any options other than marital and motherhoodrelated roles . . . women derive status from their motherhood role even if they are divorced
[1977:65].

Germain (1975) reviewed the sociological literature on women's status and fertility. She found that there is not a consistent relationship between women's education and fertility or women's fertility and employment. If women have access to child care they may work and fertility can remain relatively high. When work conflicts with child raising, fertility may decline. This "role-conflict" theory is the only theory which has been formulated to explain these relationships and it requires considerably more data for adequate testing. Survey work done by demographers and sociologists (e.g., McDevitt 1979) indicates that men and women may have different preferences for family size and composition. This area deserves intensive anthropological scrutiny; thorough studies of the reasons for such differences have not been undertaken.
Summary

In studies of self-regulation socioeconomic factors have been seen as the most important aspects of the environment to which people respond in regulating family size. Demand for labor has received considerable attention. This paper has taken the position that the mode of explanation focusing on self-regulation is preferable to that of the deterministic approach as it begins with the premise that people are rational, self-interested actors, not merely passive beings acquiescing to biological process. Incorporation of deterministic factors into models of self-regulation is the next step in population research. The following paragraphs discuss how this may be done utilizing models of individual decision making.

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CONCLUSION

Current anthropological studies of demographic process which address the question of individual motivation have imputed motivation rather than having actually studied it per se. Choices for large or small families, boys or girls, closely spaced or widely spaced births are inferred from analysis of prevailing socioeconomic conditions. While this is a good beginning, our understanding of Third World population dynamics will be seriously limited if future investigation is confined to inference and attribution of motive. Incongruities and ambiguities in current models of self-regulation have already arisen from these limitations. For example, Nag et al. (1978) argued that children in Nepal and Java are economically valuable and therefore provide an incentive to parents for large families. They presented careful, detailed quantitative data to support this hypothesis and their data are entirely convincing on the matter that, from an "objective" standpoint, children are economically valuable. However, the authors are left in the position of having to hedge on whether this demonstrated economic value is actually a motivation for high fertility. They explicitly avoid coming to grips with this problem. In their conclusion they state:
Without any assumptions as to the conscious strategies or decisions adopted by parents with regard to fertility, the pattern of actual reproductive behavior in the Javanese and Nepalese villages (with births spaced at an average interval of more than three years) may be regarded as a mechanism which enables the parents to achieve a relatively large number of surviving children while avoiding the extreme pr;ssures on the household economy that would result from uncontrolled fertility [1978:300-301, emphasis added].

It is unfortunate that the authors dismissed the problem by reference to "a mechanism," but the fact that they felt compelled to raise the issue in their concluding remarks suggests that they recognize that underlying their analysis is the assumption of some type of reproductive strategy. The study of such strategies is the very next step in achieving a fuller understanding of reproductive behavior and demographic process. There is a need for the direct study of decisions, strategies, plans, and motivations to avoid the continual need for theoretical hedges which are unnecessary and obscure important areas of inquiry. Furthermore, it is interesting to note that the work of Mamdani (1974) is widely cited by anthropologists, demographers, economists, and others (whether or not they agree with his conclusions). While Mamdani did not develop a formal decision model, he vividly depicted the economic pressures facing individual Indian villagers and he portrayed in detail their perceptions and concerns. It is in this area that anthropologists can make a significant contribution to Third World population studies. Demographers, economists, and others have concentrated on developing large-scale surveys and working with mathematical models frequently beset with unrealistic assumptions and parameters which are very general estimates taken from highly aggregated data (see Nag 1976 on this p ~ i n t )While . ~ these approaches have merit, they cannot come to terms with the question of how individuals actually structure their choice-making behavior in the critical area of family formation. Anthropologists, having a well-developed sensitivity to the local context and familiarity with studies which focus on the individual in society, can begin to move in this direction. The anthropological study of decision-making behavior has advanced greatly in recent years (see Geoghegan 1973; H. Gladwin 1975; C. Gladwin 1976, 1979; Barlett 1977; Quinn 1975, 1976, 1978; Young 1978) and the models and methods which have emerged from these studies should be utilized for the study of demographic behavior. That such work has not already been initiated may be related to a bias in recent economic anthropology noted by Quinn (1978). She argued that economic anthropology

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has tended to "import models and techniques from the methodologically more advanced discipline of economics" (1978:206), a profession which stresses prediction from "objective" quantitative data, not subjects' own reflections of their economic behavior. This has led anthropologists "to discount verbal reports as legitimate data" (1978:222). Exclusive reliance on this econometric approach is liable to steer anthropologists away from important questions about self-regulation in the demographic process. Studies of individual choice which "introduc[e] people's own explanations of what they are doing into models of economic behavior" (Quinn 1978:222) will enhance anthropological population studies by centering on exactly how individuals perceive, manipulate, and respond to the economic (and other) conditions which are thought to influence their behavior. By focusing on individual decisions we can discover how external factors impinge upon individual decisions, not how we imagine they impinge upon them. Without such a focus we are left at the level of inference characterized by the disciplines of economics and demography, and, in addition to the fact that our inferences may simply be wrong, we are bereft of the possibility of attaining a deeper understanding of people's intentions and aspirations regarding the creation of the family unit. Decision models will be extremely useful in population studies because they can be structured to provide for the incorporation of both deterministic and self-regulatory factors. These would be conceptualized in a decision model as "completely determined alternatives and those which are completely optional" (Quinn 1975:41). By viewing alternatives as a continuum (Quinn 1975) with completely determined alternatives at one end and completely optional alternatives at the other, it is no longer necessary to form dichotomies of deterministic and self-regulatory factors, or worse, to ignore one in favor of the other. The use of a decision-making continuum immediately introduces the notion that factors affecting demographic process must be assessed for the degree to which they offer the individual a choice. Such a conceptual framework explicitly directs the investigator to specify where on the continuum a variable falls and why. It forces the issue of determinacy by requiring that the investigator be made to account for the possibility that individual choice affects demographic outcome. At the same time, it allows for completely constrained choices; the important difference is that the investigator must specify how and why such choices are completely constrained. Whether one is primarily interested in self-regulation or biology, there is nothing to be gained by casting demographic problems in terms of either deterministic or self-regulatory factors, and everything to be gained by making use of the continuum framework which serves to draw attention to both kinds of variables and to position them in relation to each other. The previous hypothetical example of two societies in which demand for household labor is identical but breast-feeding practices differ, illustrates how a study which may have self-regulatory factors as its primary focus will be inadequate without a consideration of deterministic variables. On the other hand, a comparison in which deterministic factors are found to be the same, but levels of growth are different, calls for a focus on factors which affect optional alternatives. Where comparisons are not being made and effort is directed toward explaining population levels in one society, it is perhaps even more important to include the many factors which can affect population process since nothing can be held constant. The decision framework is preferable to the current practice of regarding some variables as strictly determined and others as fully subject to individual choice when considering how these variables can change over time. For example, the decision to breastfeed, which can affect family size, may be regarded by a mother as a completely determined alternative if substitute foods are not available. If however, infant formula is one day marketed in her area, her options have increased. If breast-feeding is worked into a

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model of choice, rather than seen as a deterministic factor, changes in breast-feeding practices can be easily handled without major conceptual upheavals. The advent of test. tube babies and the possibility of an operation to restore fecundity after a venereal disease provide other examples of changes which could affect deterministic variables associated with infertility and sterility. If such changes occur, the variables in question can be shifted conveniently to a new position on a continuum of choice, rather than having to be continually reclassified. Thus decision models would provide anthropologists with a framework for the study of population dynamics which would center upon self-regulation, but incorporate important biological and environmental variables in a precisely defined way. Using such models, it will be impossible to depict Third World citizens as irrational peasants incapable of calculating the costs and benefits of children, or as benighted individuals whose reproductive lives are beyond their control. By looking from the very start at the alternatives confronting the individual, attention will be focused upon the individual and his or her response to the environment. At the same time it can be recognized that people may face biological and environmental conditions which severely or completely constrain their choices. It is not possible at this time to elaborate further upon how decision models can be used in population studies because their utilization and development await future research efforts. Anthropological contributions to population studies will come from research which concentrates upon the decision processes of individuals as they create their families with definite goals and plans in mind, and which incorporates factors such as infant mortality and changing patterns of breast-feeding that constrain and influence the decision process. Comparative studies in which some control over the many variables affecting population growth is possible would be particularly valuable in furthering efforts to understand demographic process in the Third World.
NOTES

Acknowledgments. I would like to offer enthusiastic thanks to Naomi Quinn who provided inspiration and encouragement at every step in the writing of this paper. I profited immeasurably from the comments and criticisms of Hugh Gladwin, Mayling Simpson-Hkbert, and Christopher Darrouzet. Errors and omissions are my own. Triage refers to the strategy of deciding which members of a group will be sacrificed in a lifethreatening situation in which resources do not permit the survival of all-here, which starving populations will be awarded food by the grain-holding nations. Triage is a concept from military medicine in which doctors assign priority treatment to soldiers brought to the battlefield hospital according to a tripartite division: (1) those who can't be saved; (2) the "walking wounded" who can survive without treatment; and (3) those who can be saved by immediate care. Malthus proposed that a growing population would inevitably outstrip available food resources since populations grow exponentially or "geometrically" while agricultural productivity cannot be made to expand exponentially due to the limiting factors of land and diminishing returns to labor. For example, posters and billboards depicting an "ideal family" with two or three children appear throughout the Third World. Fertility refers to actual reproductive performance (also "natality") rather than fecundity, which is the physiological capacity to reproduce-specifically the probability of conception per menstrual cycle. The concept of the extended family as used by proponents of demographic transition theory simply means a kin grouping which extends beyond the nuclear family. Although Bayliss-Smith chides the Ontong-Javanese for lack of response to their islands' stress signals, saying that the "change in spatial scale is to be regretted" (1975b3472) and that population growth is "retrograde" (1975b:476), we might note that improved health of women, reduction in

'

'

'

' '

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fetal loss and infant deaths, improved female longevity and less widowhood do not add up to consistent stress signals. Hutterite women many relatively late, about age 22 (May 1978:494), so that they could achieve even larger family sizes with earlier marriage. For example, Mueller (1975), an economist, attempted to estimate the economic value of children in "peasant economies" (by which she meant any "peasant economy") using "Consumption Coefficients Relative to Adult Male" (p. 4) for children of different ages. According to this formulation, all peasant children consume the same amount relative to some standard adult male no matter what country, region, time period, social group, or income bracket they happen to be in.

'

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You have printed the following article: Modes of Explanation in Anthropological Population Theory: Biological Determinism vs. Self-Regulation in Studies of Population Growth in Third World Countries Bonnie Anna Nardi American Anthropologist, New Series, Vol. 83, No. 1. (Mar., 1981), pp. 28-56.
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Mortality, Fertility and Contraceptive Use in Shanghai Judith Banister The China Quarterly, No. 70. (Jun., 1977), pp. 255-295.
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The Structure of Decision Making in Paso Peggy F. Barlett American Ethnologist, Vol. 4, No. 2. (May, 1977), pp. 285-307.
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The Population of Tikopia, 1929 and 1952 W. D. Borrie; Raymond Firth; James Spillius Population Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3. (Mar., 1957), pp. 229-252.
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The Economic Activities of Children in a Village in Bangladesh Mead T. Cain Population and Development Review, Vol. 3, No. 3. (Sep., 1977), pp. 201-227.
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The Economic Rationality of High Fertility: An Investigation Illustrated with Nigerian Survey Data J. C. Caldwell Population Studies, Vol. 31, No. 1. (Mar., 1977), pp. 5-27.
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Population, Food Intake, and Fertility Rose E. Frisch Science, New Series, Vol. 199, No. 4324. (Jan. 6, 1978), pp. 22-30.
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Menstrual Cycles: Fatness as a Determinant of Minimum Weight for Height Necessary for Their Maintenance or Onset Rose E. Frisch; Janet W. McArthur Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4155. (Sep. 13, 1974), pp. 949-951.
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Height and Weight at Menarche and a Hypothesis of Critical Body Weights and Adolescent Events Rose E. Frisch; Roger Revelle Science, New Series, Vol. 169, No. 3943. (Jul. 24, 1970), pp. 397-399.
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Status and Roles of Women as Factors in Fertility Behavior: A Policy Analysis Adrienne Germain Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 6, No. 7. (Jul., 1975), pp. 192-200.
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A View of the Plan Puebla: An Application of Hierarchical Decision Models Christina H. Gladwin American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 58, No. 5, Proceedings Issue. (Dec., 1976), pp. 881-887.
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Cognitive Strategies and Adoption Decisions: A Case Study of Nonadoption of an Agronomic Recommendation Christina H. Gladwin Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 28, No. 1. (Oct., 1979), pp. 155-173.
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Parenthood: Right or Privilege? Garrett Hardin Science, New Series, Vol. 169, No. 3944. (Jul. 31, 1970), p. 427.
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Environmental Effects on Child-Spacing and Population Increase in Highland Guatemala Robert Hinshaw; Patrick Pyeatt; Jean-Pierre Habicht Current Anthropology, Vol. 13, No. 2. (Apr., 1972), pp. 216-230.
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Postpartum Amenorrhea: How Is It Affected by Maternal Nutritional Status? Sandra L. Huffman; A. K. M. Alauddin Chowdhury; W. Henry Mosley Science, New Series, Vol. 200, No. 4346. (Jun. 9, 1978), pp. 1155-1157.
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Breast-Feeding and Population Growth John Knodel Science, New Series, Vol. 198, No. 4322. (Dec. 16, 1977), pp. 1111-1115.
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Migrant Labour and Economic Development Marvin P. Miracle; Sara S. Berry Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol. 22, No. 1. (Mar., 1970), pp. 86-108.
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Anthropology and Demography: The Mutual Reinforcement of Speculation and Research [and Comments and Reply] John Caldwell; Pat Caldwell; Bruce Caldwell; David Eversley; Alan G. Fix; Nancy Howell; Moni Nag; Conrad Taeuber; Francine van de Walle Current Anthropology, Vol. 28, No. 1. (Feb., 1987), pp. 25-43.
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An Anthropological Approach to the Study of the Economic Value of Children in Java and Nepal [and Comments and Reply] Moni Nag; Benjamin N. F. White; R. Creighton Peet; Amita Bardhan; Terence H. Hull; Allen Johnson; George S. Masnick; Steven Polgar; Robert Repetto; Sol Tax Current Anthropology, Vol. 19, No. 2. (Jun., 1978), pp. 293-306.
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Marriage, Family, and Population Growth in Upper Burma June Nash; Manning Nash Southwestern Journal of Anthropology, Vol. 19, No. 3. (Autumn, 1963), pp. 251-266.
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Women's Workload and Infant Feeding Practices: A Relationship with Demographic Implications Sara B. Nerlove Ethnology, Vol. 13, No. 2. (Apr., 1974), pp. 207-214.
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Population History and Population Policies from an Anthropological Perspective Steven Polgar Current Anthropology, Vol. 13, No. 2. (Apr., 1972), pp. 203-211.
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Decision Models of Social Structure Naomi Quinn American Ethnologist, Vol. 2, No. 1, Intra-Cultural Variation. (Feb., 1975), pp. 19-45.
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A Natural System Used in Mfantse Litigation Settlement Naomi Quinn American Ethnologist, Vol. 3, No. 2. (May, 1976), pp. 331-351.
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Do Mfantse Fish Sellers Estimate Probabilities in Their Heads? Naomi Quinn American Ethnologist, Vol. 5, No. 2. (May, 1978), pp. 206-226.
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Some Cultural Influences on Family Size in Three East African Societies Marc J. Swartz Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 2. (Apr., 1969), pp. 73-88.
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Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries Michael S. Teitelbaum Science, New Series, Vol. 188, No. 4187. (May 2, 1975), pp. 420-425.
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Population Warren S. Thompson The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 34, No. 1. (Jul., 1928), pp. 3-15.
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Nutrition, Population, and Health: Some Implications for Policy Beverly Winikoff Science, New Series, Vol. 200, No. 4344, Health Maintenance Issue. (May 26, 1978), pp. 895-902.
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Demographic and Economic Aspects of Poverty in the Rural Philippines Aram A. Yengoyan Comparative Studies in Society and History, Vol. 16, No. 1. (Jan., 1974), pp. 58-72.
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