Chapter 6- Discrete Probability Distributions Topics Discrete Distributions o Random Variables o Probability Distribution Function (PDF) o Cumulative Distribution

n Function (CDF) o Parameters o Expected Value o Standard Deviation Uniform Distribution Bernoulli Distribution Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Hypergeometric Distribution Transformations of Random Variables

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Discrete Probability Distributions

A random variable is a rule that assigns a numerical result from a random experiment. The actual value is an observation from a population. It is a fixed number and so is not random. A discrete random variable has a countable number of outcomes.

Examples of discrete random variables:

X = number of phone calls received a day X = number of votes for a candidate

X = number of defective parts in a lot of size 100

X = number of patient arrivals to an ER in an hour

X = number of complaints received a week

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Discrete Probability Distributions The pattern of probabilities for each value of a random variable is its probability distribution. Probability Rules 0 P(xi) 1 ( )

Mean, or Expected Value of X

( )
Variance of X

( )

( )
Standard deviation of X

( )

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Discrete Probability Distributions

Example: A technician services equipment in a metropolitan area. Depending on the type of malfunction, the service call can take 1, 2, 3, or 4 hours. The different malfunctions occur at about the same frequency. random variable X = the duration of a service call The distribution of X is:

X P(X) 1 .25 2 .25 3 .25 4 .25

0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 X 3 4 P(X)

( ) ( ( ) ) 1.25 ( ) (

2.50 hours )

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Discrete Probability Distributions

Probability Distribution Function (PDF) gives the probability X equals a value. Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) gives the probability that X is less than or equal to a value. It is a cumulative sum of probabilities from the PDF.
Example- X = the duration of a service call X P(X) P(X <= value) 1 .25 .25 2 .25 .50 3 .25 .75 4 .25 1.00

CDF
1 0.5 P(X<= value) 0
1 2 3 4

Random variables, their distributions, and their means and standard deviation are defined by their parameters.

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Uniform Discrete Distribution A random variable where X equals the integer values between a and b, and the values are equally likely.

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Uniform Discrete Distribution

Example- X = the duration of a service call X P(X) P(X <= value) 1 .25 .25 2 .25 .50 3 .25 .75 4 .25 1.00

Parameters are a = 1 and b = 4.

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Bernoulli Distribution
Random variable X has two outcomes, arbitrarily denoted as 1 and 0, and sometimes referred to as success (X=1) and failure (X=0). The probability of success (X=1) is denoted (the parameter of the distribution) so the probability of failure (X=0) is 1 .

The distribution is:

X P(X) 0 1- 1 E(X) =

( )

0*(1- ) + 1* =

( (

) )

( ) ( (

( ) )

) (

Example- inspect a part so X=0 for good and X=1 for defective. (Here success is finding a defect.)
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Binomial Distribution
When the Bernoulli experiment is repeated n times X is the number of successes in those n trials, so it is the sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables, where is the probability of success at each trial.

Examples: X = number responses in a survey 1000 voters indicating favor for an initiative X = number of smokers in a sample of 100 people X = number of female employees in a department of size 45

A related random variable is the Binomial proportion p, the random variable X expressed as a fraction of n:
p X n

The parameters of the Binomial are n and .

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Binomial Distribution
Shape of the distribution Skewed if is close to 0. Here

= .05, n= 25:

0.4 0.2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25

Symmetric if

is close to .5. Here =.5, n=25:

0.3 0.2 0.1 0

10

15

20

25

Skewed if

is close to 1. Here = .9, n=25:

0.3 0.2 0.1 0

10

15

20

25

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Binomial Distribution
Recall that a Bernoulli random variable has:

( (

) )

The Binomial random variable X is

The mean of this sum is

The variance of this sum is

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

So the standard deviation of the sum is ( )

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Binomial Distribution

The probability density function for the Binomial distribution may be derived by viewing the Bernoulli trials on a probability tree.

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Binomial Distribution- PDF

Example: Let X = # defective units found in a sample of size n = 2 with probability of defective at each trial equal to = .10
Probability tree:
P(D1) D1 P(G2/D1) P(D1 G2) P(G1 D2) P(D2/D1) P(D1 D2)

X 2 1 1

P(D2/ G1) G1

P(G1)

P(G2/ G1)

P(G1 G2)

( ( (

) ) )

( (

) ( )

Or, using the excel function: P(X = 0) = binomidst(0, 2, .10, false) = .81 P(X = 1) = binomidst(1, 2, .10, false) = .18 P(X = 2) = binomidst(2, 2, .10, false) = .01

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Binomial Distribution -Mean and Standard Deviation

For the random variable X = the number of occurrences:

E( X ) n n (1 )
X X

For the random variable proportion p = X/n

E ( p) p

p (1 )
n
Example: For a sample of size n = 300 from a population with a defective rate of = .05

E( X ) n 300*.05 15 n (1 ) 300*.05*.95 3.77

X X

E ( p) p .05

p (1 ) .05*.95 .013 n 300

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Binomial Distribution
The standard deviation of the proportion differs for different values. It is biggest when = .50.

p (1 )
n

For n = 1000:
pi 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 std dev of p 0.0095 0.0126 0.0145 0.0155 0.0158 0.0155 0.0145 0.0126 0.0095

0.018 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.010 std dev of p 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.000 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 pi 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

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Binomial Distribution
The standard deviation of the proportion decreases as the sample size n increases.

p (1 )
n
For = .50:
std dev of p decreases as n increases
0.0600 0.0500

std dev of p

0.0400 0.0300 0.0200 0.0100 0.0000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 sample size n

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Binomial Distribution
Example: Based on past results, you estimate that the probability a returning customer to a web site makes a new purchase .30. What is the probability that two of the next three returning customers make a purchase?

P(X = 2) =.189
value of X P(X= value) P(X <= value) 0 0.343 0.343 1 0.441 0.784 2 0.189 0.973 3 0.027 1
Binom ial n=3, pi = .30 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 1 2 3 value of X

For X= the number of customers making a new purchase, the parameters are n = 3 and = .30.

X E( X ) n 3*.3 .9 X n (1 ) 3(.3)(1.3) .8
Interpretation: Expected number of returning customers that make a new purchase in a sample of size 3 is 0.9. Typically, number making a new purchase is approximately .8 more or less than 0.9. For p= the proportion of customers making a purchase,
p E ( p) .3 p (1 ) .3(1 .3) .26
n 3

Interpretation: Expect 30% to make a purchase. Typically, expect approximately 26% above or below 30%.
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P(X = value)

Binomial Distribution
Example- A company has purchased 50,000 electrical switches and has been guaranteed by the supplier that the shipment will contain no more than 0.1% defectives. A random sample of 500 switches is tested and four switches are defective. Based on this sample, what inference would you make about the suppliers guarantee?

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Binomial Distribution
Example- Solution- A company has purchased 50,000 electrical switches and has been guaranteed by the supplier that the shipment will contain no more than 0.1% defectives. A random sample of 500 switches is tested and four switches are defective. Based on this sample, what inference would you make about the suppliers guarantee?

Random variable X = number defective switches out of n=500, where each switch has probability of being defective equal to .001 X is binomial with parameters n=500 and =.001.

X E( X ) n 500*.001 .5 X n (1 ) 500*.001*(1.001) .4995 .7

Inference:
= (4 - .5)/.7 = 5 Z = X

The observation X = 4 is 5 standard deviations above the mean of .5, suggesting that it is an unlikely result for a sample of n=500 from a population with a defect rate of =.001.

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Poisson Distribution
X= number of arrivals over a fixed interval (typically, interval is time) the number of patients arriving at an ER in an hour the number of telephone calls per day the number of leaks in 100 miles of pipeline The random variable X is considered Poisson distributed if the arrivals are independent- an arrival has no effect on the probability of other arrivals. The Poisson distribution has a single parameter , the arrival rate.

E(X) = = mean number of arrivals per interval =

If the mean is large, the Poisson is well approximated by the normal distribution.

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Poisson Distribution
Example: The number of lost-time accidents in an organization averages one per day and is assumed to be Poisson distributed. Random variable X= number of accidents per day where accidents are assumed to occur independently X is Poisson with = 1. Using the excel function:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 P(X) 0.36788 0.36788 0.18394 0.06131 0.01533 0.00307 0.00051 0.00007 0.00001

P(X = value) is defined for all integer values, though only values up to X = 8 are shown in this table and graph.

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Poisson Distribution
Example- Airline passengers arrive randomly and independently at the passenger-screening facility at a major international airport. The arrival rate is 10 passengers per minute. a. What is the probability of no arrivals in a one-minute period? b. What is the probability that three or fewer passengers arrive in a one-minute period? c. What is the probability of no arrivals in a 15-second period? d. What is the probability of at least one arrival in a 15-second period?

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Poisson Distribution
Example- Solution: Airline passengers arrive randomly and independently at the passenger-screening facility at a major international airport. The arrival rate is 10 passengers per minute. X is Poisson with = 10 per minute a. What is the probability of no arrivals in a one-minute period? P(X=0) = .00005 = poisson(0, 10, false) b. What is the probability that three or fewer passengers arrive in a one-minute period? P(X <= 3) = P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)= .0103 = poisson(3,10,true) c. What is the probability of no arrivals in a 15-second period? If X is Poisson with = 10 per minute, then X = the number of arrivals in a 15-second period is also Poisson with = 10/4 = 2.5 arrivals per 15 seconds (15 seconds is of a minute) X is Poisson with a mean of = 2.5 per 15-second period P(X=0) = .082 = poisson(0, 2.5, false) d. What is the probability of at least one arrival in a 15-second period? X is Poisson with a mean of = 2.5 per 15-second period P(X>=1) = 1- P(X=0) = 1- .082 = .918 = 1- poisson(0, 2.5,false)

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Hypergeometric Distribution
It is like the binomial distribution, but the sampling is without replacement, so that the probability of success is not the same at each trial. X = number of successes in a sample of size n taken from a population of size N that has exactly s successes The parameters are N = size of population, n = sample size, and s = number of successes in the population.

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Transformations of Random Variables

Linear Transformation For a random variable X and linear transformation aX + b where a and b are constants Adding a constant b shifts the mean but does not affect the standard deviation. Multiplying by a constant a affects both the mean and standard deviation.

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Transformations of Random Variables

Sums of Independent Random Variables The mean of a sum of random variables is the sum of their means.

The standard deviation of the sum is not the sum of their standard deviation. The variance of a sum of random variables is the sum of their variances, if the random variables are independent. If random variables X and Y are independent:

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Transformations of Random Variables

Sums of Independent Random Variables
Example (from our text) Project Scheduling- Three activities must be done sequentially to complete a project. The time (in days) to complete each of the activities is a random variable with mean and variance as shown below. Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 2

The mean project length is the sum of the activity means:

If the activity times are independent, the variance of the project length is the sum of the activity variances:

So the standard deviation of project length is

But, what distribution do activity times follow? And, are activity times independent events?

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Transformations of Random Variables

Sums of Random Variables- not Independent Covariance of two random variables X and Y ( measures how X and Y move together. )

If X values are above its mean when Y values are above its mean then If X values are above its mean when Y values are below its mean then If X and Y are not independent (so that ) then must include the covariance in the variance of the sum of random variables to then find the standard deviation of the sum:

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