STAT 2 Lecture 1: An introduction

About the lecturer

Brad Luen bradluen@stat.berkeley.edu (put STAT 2 in subject line) http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/ users/bradluen/stat2/

Why are we here?

World is full of data Statistics lets us make sense of data Therefore, statistics helps us make sense of the world

Why are we here?

It's a requirement... It's a prerequisite... It's easy units...

Why are we here?

Statistical literacy: understand statistical statements Statistical reasoning: draw conclusions from statistical statements Statistical thinking: investigate problems statistically

What we're going to do today

Course outline: everything you have to do this semester Course structure: everything you need to know about statistics, in half an hour

Course Structure

Week in, week out

Textbook: Statistics by rd Freedman, Pisani & Purves, 3 or th 4 ed. Lectures: M-F 10-11 am, here Discussion: M-Th: 11 am in 332 Evans; 11 am in 344 Evans; 12 pm in 344 Evans

Grading

Weekly quizzes: 20% (best 5 of 6) Midterm: Friday 18th July: 30% Final: Friday 15th August: 50% For full schedule, see course webpage First quiz: this Thursday during discussion

Where to get help

Brad's office hours: Wed 11am 1pm Partha's office hours: W 9-10 am, Th 3-4 pm Daniel's office hours: Tu 9-10 am, 2-3 pm Probably in 307 Evans but to be confirmed

Protips

Don't fall behind! Read the book! Come to office hours!

Questions?

Dealing with data: weeks 1 and 2

Design of experiments

How do you design an experiment to show what you want to show? How can you set up a fair comparison? What if you can't do an experiment?

Summarising data

Summarise data through: Graphs Averages Spreads

Mistakes in measurement

Physics sez: V=IR Is physics right?

II

The best fit: weeks 3 and 4

Correlation

How strong is the relationship?

Regression

Which line shows the average weight given the person's height?

Prediction

How accurately can we predict a person's weight, given their height?

Probability

What does chance mean? How do we calculate probabilities of complex events? What if we can't do exact calculations?

Intermission: The outcome effect

France vs Holland soccer, June th 18 Most sportsbooks: bet $1, win $2 if France wins One sportsbook: bet $1, win $2 if France wins OR draws I bet on France Holland 4, France 1

The outcome effect

After the fact, probability is meaningless Single probability statements generally can't be judged on outcomes alone Need multiple observations for a test

III

Variation: Weeks 5 and 6

The law of averages

After taking a large number of observations, the observed average is very close to the theoretical average... if the theory is right How can we use this knowledge to statistically model events?

How to gamble

Don't gamble In most cases, you're sure to lose in the long run We can analyse games (and life) in terms of expected value

Taking samples and surveys

How do we avoid bias? How do we deal with chance errors? How large should our sample size be?

How accurate are samples?

How accurate are opinion poll percentages? How accurate are experimental averages? Confidence intervals: the most confusing things in all statistics

IV

Putting it to the test: Weeks 7 and 8

More about errors

Types of error Models for error Checking for cheats

Is the difference real?

Testing for a significant difference What tests assume How to interpret test results

Is the difference real: advanced

Looking too hard Bad models, bad tests Make your own tests

Recap

Statistical literacy

Understand graphs Understand probabilistic statements Understand experimental and survey results

Statistical reasoning

Draw conclusions from graphs and data summaries Make decisions based on probabilities Evaluate conclusions others have drawn from statistics

Statistical thinking

Design experiments to test hypotheses Build and evaluate prediction models Understand the relative strength of statistical conclusions

Next time:

How statistics helped to vanquish polio