Epidemics

and Diffusion Simple rumor

Ignorant Rumor spreading rate Wise

rumor spreading constant

Epidemic core structure

Susceptible Becoming sick Sick Recovering Recovered

(B)

Susceptible contacts w infectious people

(R)

Suscptible contacts p day

Probability contact is infected

Basic epidemic model

Fraction of contacts transmitting disease Time to show symptoms

Susceptible Infection rate

(B)

Infected but not symptomatic

Sickness rate

Sick and symptomatic Cure rate

Susceptible contacts w infectious people

(R)

Infected population

Recovered

Sick time

Susceptible contacts p day

Probability contact is infected

People contacted p susc p day

Total population

Bass Model from Marketing

Prob of adoption given contact Contacts per person per yr Sales from word of mouth (B) Potential customers Sales rate (B) Sales from marketing (R) Installed base Potential market size

marketing factor

Bass Model with expanded formulation for Word-of-mouth:

+ Fraction of potiential customers reached by marketing per yr Sales from marketing C

Potential customers

Sales rate

Installed base

+ Sales from word of mouth R +

Probability of adoption given contact

Potential customer contacts + Contacts per Potential customer per year +

Probability contact is with Installed base units + Total market

Potential customer contacts with Intalled base units

Norsk Hydro oil platform concept models

Synergies betw potential and experience Potential capacity to transition B Speed of transition R

Experience with transition

Capacity in Traditional ops

Transition to Integrated ops

New capacity in Integrated ops

Synergies betw potential and experience Potential capacity to transition B Speed of transition R

Experience with transition

R Time to fully integrate ops

Capacity in Traditional ops

Transition to Integrated ops

New capacity in Integrated ops

Maturing Integrated ops

Mature capacity in Integrated ops

Risk

Cost per bbl

Norsk Hydro model: Hydro1, Work Processes view:

Newness of work processes Total work processes in place Traditional work processes New work processes in place

developing new work processes

integrating new work processes

Fraction of work sprocesses that are traditional

Resources in work process development

<Total work processes in place> Fraction of work processes that are new or mature

Productivity of resources in WP devel Effect of trad WP remaining on devel WP productivity Effect of new WP on WP devel productivity

Normal productivity of resources in work process devel

New initiatives burden Effect of new initiatives on devel new work processes

Revolutions
support factor time to stay mobilized

Supporting Govt supporters Disaffecting Uninvolved

Neutralizing Mobilized opposition Recruiting

time supporting govt

Recruiting factor

<Committed neutrals>

The Whole System

Usual coercing tendency Usual scaring tendency Scaring rebels Govt repression <Committed rebels>

Coercive effects of repression

Feelings of repression Tolerated govt repression

<Scaring rebels>

Coercing neutrals

time to get used to repression

Supporting Loyalists Neutrals Disaffecting Recruiting Rebels

Neutralizing

Govt tendency to repress rebels

Total population <Committed loyalists> Tendency to lose loyalty Disillusioning effects of govt injustices <Committed neutrals> Tendency to rebel

Likelihood of revolution

Uncritical mass of govt support

Usual tendency to lose loyalty

Usual tendency to rebel

Critical mass of opposition

Govt injustiices Perceived govt injustices

Feelings of injustices

Threshold for critical mass of opposition

<Total population>

Government tendency to take advantage time to perceive govt injustices

Tolerated govt injustices

time to adjust to govt injustices

Mentoring new personnel

Total personnel Target growth rate New personnel Hiring rate

Fraction experienced

Gaining experience rate

Experienced personnel

Experienced leave rate Frac exp leaving p year

Time to become experienced Mentoring time needed Mentoring time needed p New Adequacy of mentoring Perceived time to become exp

Mentoring time available

Mentoring time available p Exp