Energy Convers. Mgmt Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 113-118, 1983 Printed in Great Britain.

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0196-8904/83 $3.00 + 0.00 Copyright 1983 Pergamon Press Ltd

PREDICTION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION FROM BRIGHT SUNSHINE HOURS AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL DATA
H. P. GARG and S. N. GARG
Centre of Energy Studies, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110 016, India (Received 24 April 1982) Abstract Three existing empirical relations which predict global radiation from bright sunshine hours and meteorological parameters, were tried for 14 Indian stations where all relevant data was available. A large amount of error ( 50%') was found. So a new empirical relation was established between global radiation and meteorological parameters. The new relation predicted the insolation within a 10% error limit in most cases. Global radiation dependence on ambient temperature and relative humidity was introduced through atmosperic water content per unit volume. The relation is WAT = RH (4.7923 + 0.3647 x T + 0.0055 x T2 + 0.0003 x T3) G = Gex, (0.414 + 0.400 x SS 0.0055 x WAT) S SS= Global radiation Bright sunshine hours radiation prediction Relative humidity Ambient temperature Solar

NOMENCLATURE G = daily global radiation on a horizontal surface L = latitude of the place S = measured bright sunshine hours Z = maximum possible bright sunshine hours T,,, maximum temperature of the day CC) RH = monthly mean relative humidity = sun declination n = No. of day of the year G, x , extraterrestrial daily global radiation on a horizontal surface G, = daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface observed on earth W, = sunrise hour angle WAT = atmospheric water content per unit volume near the earth surface (kg/m 3) SS = fraction of maximum possible bright sunshine hours

1. INTRODUCTION

In a given region, solar energy conversion devices should be installed only in those places where one gets sufficient insolation. This necessitates knowledge of the distribution of insolation over the region. The best way of knowing it is to install pyranometers at many loca tions in the given region and look after their day-to-day maintenance and recording, which is a very costly exercise. The alternative approach is to correlate insolation with the meteorological parameters such as sunshine hours, relative humidity, ambient temperature, etc. Daily recordings of these parameters are available from a lot of stations covering many years. So, for a few stations, if global radiation as well as meteorological parameters are
113

available, and if such a correlation is established, then one can know global radiation for those stations where only meteorological parameters are available, provided these stations also have similar atmospheric conditions. A basic point, helpful in this correlation study is that, outside the atmosphere, global radi-ation on a horizontal surface can be determined very precisely. Radiation reaching a station depends upon the atmospheric conditions of that station. The most important atmospheric condition is the water content in the atmosphere. From relative humidity and ambient temperature, water content per unit volume near the station can be determined. Water content is important because it highly absorbs solar radiation in the infrared region. The other meteorological parameter is sunshine hours, which is used as a fraction of the maximum possible bright sunshine hours. Different authors [1-3] have tried to establish this correlation. Angstrom [4] has tried to establish a linear relationship between global radiation and bright sunshine hours. Page [5] includes extraterrestrial radiation also in the computation of global radiation. In the present study, we have tried to predict insolation using three commonly used formulas, Sayigh formula [1], Reddy's formula [2] and Swartman's formula [3], and found that, in each case, there was a large amount of error. Hence, a new empirical relation was developed which predicted the global radiation within a 10% error limit in most of the cases. Radiation data, as well as meteorological data, for 14 stations was available from the book compiled by Mani [6]. The data conforms to the international

114

GARG and GARG: PREDICTION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION Table 1. Indian stations used in this study, with daily records of meteorological parameters Latitude (N) (deg) 28.63 26.30 23.07 22.65 21.75 21.10 19.12 18.53 17.72 15.48 13.00 12.97 10.23 8.48 Longitude (E) (deg) 77.20 73.02 72.63 88.45 72.18 79.50 72.85 73.85 83.23 73.82 80.18 77.58 77.47 76.95 Global radiation 1957-78 1960-78 1962-78 1957-78 1967-78 1960-78 1969-78 1957-78 1961-78 1963-78 1957-78 1978-80 1962-78 1959-78 Period of record Sunshine Ambient hours temperature 1954-63 1954-63 1954-63 1954-63 1954-63 1954-63 1954-63 1954-63 1962-67 1954-67 1954-63 1977-80 1954-63 1954-63 1958-67 1958-66 1958-67 1958-67 1976-78 1958-67 1958-67 1958-67 1958-67 1964-67 1958-69 1977-80 1958-67 1958-67 Relative humidity 1958-67 1958-65 1958-67 1958-67 1976-78 1958-67 1958-67 1958-67 1958-67 1958-66 1958-67 1977-80 1958-67 1958-67

Station New Delhi Jodhpur Ahmedabad Calcutta Bhavnagar Nagpur Bombay Poona Vizagapatanam Goa Madras Bangalore Kodai Kanal Trivandrum

meteorological standards as specified by WMO. Table 1 shows the list of stations as well as periods of data used. Although data periods for different meteorological parameters, including global radiation parameter, do not coincide, these periods are so long that one can use them with sufficient accuracy. Computer programmes were drawn at various stages of the present study.

K = 100(A Z + 111 iicos L) 1 +0.1L ( 0.2 ) , L is in degrees.

(5) (6)

2. PREDICTIONS BY THE EXISTING EMPIRICAL RELATIONS 2.1. Sayigh's formula Ths formula takes into consideration parameters like latitude, mean sun declination for the month, and maximum possible bright sunshine hours in addition to the main meteorological parameters like measured bright sunshine hours, relative humidity and maximum temperature for the mean day of the month. The entire range of relative humidity (RH) is divided into three subranges, viz. RH 65%, RH 70% and 65% < RH < 70%, and corresponding to each sub-range, a graph has been drawn between humidity factor, and 12 months of the year. One has to know the annual mean daily relative humidity for a given station, and depending upon this annual mean value, one chooses a particular graph out of the three graphs and determines the values of ti/ for different months of the year. The complete formula is (1) where G = NK exP [L s - RH
15

In tfr g , i corresponds to the subrange of relative humidity, and j corresponds to the number of the month of the year. Using all these equations, global radiation has been computed for 14 Indian stations, and the results are shown only for one station (chosen randomly), Poona, in Fig. 1. From Fig. 1, it is clear that this empirical relation does not fit at all during the r ainy months of July and August. During these months, the error is as high as + 40%. The formula over-estimates the radiation during rainy months. During the clear months of December, January and February, this relation under-estimates the insolation, the error being as low as -28.2% (December). A similar trend is also seen in the other 13 stations. The maximum under-estimation is -52.8% (Kodai Kanal, December), and the maximum over-estimation is + 60.7% (Bangalore, July). 2.2. Reddy's formula This formula does not consider maximum ambient temperature, rather it considers the number of rainy days in a month. The G formula is K(1 + 0.81)(1 - 0.2t) where
N

/RH

- T1.

K = 100(AZ + O,/ cos L) 0.2 (2) (3) i = 1, 2 J = 1,2,3 . .. 12 where L is in degrees

N = 1.7 - 0.458 L, L is in radians Z = - 2 cos -I [ - tan L tan S] 15 = 23.45 sin

[(284 + n )3601

1 + O. I L

365 j

(4)

no. of rainy days in a month total no. of days in the month

(10)

GARG and GARG: PREDICTION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

3 6
-0

115

32 28 2 4 2 0

-a I6 n 2
0-

8
4

Measu red (S J Reddy) ( A A.M Sayigh) ( R.K. Swartman)

trend is observed for other stations also, except for the two stations, Kodai Kanal and Trivandrum. For these stations, the formula always under-estimates the insolation but the common feature is still there, i.e. under-estimation is high during rainy months and low during clear months. Partly, it is due to the fact that Kodai Kanal is a high altitude station. For all the 14 stations, the maximum over-estimation is +53.1.0 (New Delhi, December), and the maximum under-estimation is (Kodai Kanal, June).
Predicted

3. PRESENT METHODOLOGY
j 1
:

o
o 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

M J J Months

Fig. 1. Monthly variation of daily average global radiation for Poona. Two values of i designate whether the station considered is an inland station or coastal station, and values of O,/ can be read from the tables for the particular station. Figure 1 shows the comparison of the predicted insolation by this formula with the measured values for Poona. Figure 1 shows that this formula is good fitting during the rainy months of July and A ugust. During the clear months of January to April, the formula over-estimates the radiation, and this over-estimation is as high as +35% (April). During rainy months, the over-estimation is as low as +4.0% (July). The graph shows that this relation overestimates the radiation during all months of the year. The same trend is observed for other stations also. 2.3. Swartman's ,formula This formula predicts global radiation on a horizontal surface from bright sunshine hours and relative humidity only. Swartman and others have evolved two empirical equations which are as follows S 0 262 G, = 490.0 ( ) 0.357 (RH)12 S G, = 460.0 exp [0.607 (-12 RH)]. (11)

From geometrical considerations, one can determine the extraterrestrial daily global radiation on a horizontal surface for a given latitude. The equations used are 24.0 x F Gext= _____ x (cos L cos sin W, + W, sin L sin )

F = 1.95 x 60.0 365 x [1 + 0.033 cos (360 x n)1 W, = cos' [ tan L tan ] ( W, is in radians) (13)

1 ( 4 ) 1 ( 5 ) The factor, F, takes into account the variation of earth sun center-to-center distante from day-to-day. This formula gives the extraterrestrial radiation in Cal/cm' day, which can be converted to MJ/m2 day by multiplying with a factor 0.04183. On the earth surface, measured values of global radiation on a horizontal surface are available, and so by dividing this measured value by G, one determines the transmission of the atmosphere for global radiation (in contrast to the direct radiation). For a given location, hourly values of ambient temperature and relative humidity are known. From relative humidity and ambient temperature, one can determine the atmospheric water content per unit volume. From Fig. 2, at any ambient temperature, the saturated water amount is known, and as relative humidity is the ratio of actual water content to the saturated water content at a given temperature, actual water content per unit volume is determined. The analytical way of determining this quantity is by using the following equation WAT = RH(4.7923 + 0.3647 x T

(12)

Instead of using the sunshine hours parameter as a fraction of maximum possible bright sunshine hours, the author uses sunshine hours here as a fraction of 12 only, i.e. mean possible bright sunshine hours, which is a simplification. For the same values of S and RH, both these equations give approximately the same value of G. Again, we have tried these two equations for 14 stations, and results are compared in Fig. 1, for Poona only. The figure shows that these equations over-estimate the insolation during clear months and under-estimate it during rainy months. For Poona, the maximum under-estimation is 18.53% (July), and the maximum over-estimation is +30.1`, in the month of December. A similar type of
O,

23/2

+ 0.0055 x T 2 + 0.0003 x T ). (16) This expression has been determined from Fig. 2 using a least square method. Instead of making atmospheric transmission (G ob /G e ,) dependent upon two quantities, relative humidity and ambient tem-perature, we have made it dependent upon one

116
48 42 E o E 36 30 6
I 1 1

GARG and GARG: PREDICTION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

1 1 1 1 1

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 Temperature (0C)

Fig. 2. Variation of saturated water amount with ambient temperature for air.

a )24 cr I8 12

16 x 10-3 kg/M3 to 22 x 10-3 kg/M3, and trans-mission vares from 0.45 to 0.35. The scattering of these points does not show clearly whether the de-pendence of Gob/Ge, upon water content and fraction of sunshine hours is linear, exponential or of any other type. For simplicity, we have assumed linear dependence. Using a least square technique, the following equation was obtained. G = Ge,[0.414 + 0.400 x SS 0.0055 x WAT]. (17) Using this equation, global radiation has been computed for each month for each of the 14 stations, and the values have been compared with measured values as shown in Table 2. 4. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

quantity, water content. It has many advantageous points, like firstly it is easier to deal with a few number of variables, and secondly, from morning until evening, the relative humidity goes on decreasing, and ambient temperature goes on increasing for a clear day, the water content per unit volume changes very slowly during this period. For each station, we have calculated hourly values of water content from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. and taken the average of these. These calculations show that, even if one tries to know water content at 12.00 (L.A.T.), one gets nearly the same value as the average one. The time period 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. has been chosen because most of the radiation is received during this period. Figure 3 shows the variation of Gob/Gex, with water content. The fraction of maximum possible sunshine hours, SS, runs as a parameter. Figure 3 shows that, for low values of SS, water content vares from

Surface water amount (kg /m3) x10-3

0.8

0.7

0
0

8 o
Bp

ss=a8oao5
00 o O
o

0.6

oc'
0.5 04 C.5 0.3 02 0.1
1 1 1
1 1 1 i

32 45)

24 E
E

20

2 16 o 2 12 Measured Predicted (present study)

o8
O

o
28

A M

12

16

20

24

J A S O Months

Fig. 3. Variation of Gob/Gc, with surface water amount.

Fig. 4. Monthly variation of daily global radiation for Poona (calculated from the proposed method).

Table 2 shows the observed insolation, predicted insolation and the corresponding error for all the stations. It is seen that, in most of the predictions, the error remains within a 10% limit. Out of a total of 14 x 12 predictions, only 12 predictions have gone beyond this limit. The maximum over-estimation is + 12.6%, and the maximum under-estimation is 19.6%. So, as far as over-estimation is concerned, it is also very close to the + 10% limit. In the case of Poona, just for comparison purposes with other formulas, results are shown graphically also in Fig. 4. Figure 4 shows that, during rainy months, the formula under-estimates the insolation, but during the clear months, the formula may under-estimate as well as over-estimate the insolation. The maximum overestimation for Poona is 2.8% (May), and the maximum under-estimation is 6.4% (October). After scanning through Table 2, one sees that the trend of under-estimation during rainy months is observed in the present study also, but this under-estimation is not so high as in other studies. Errors

"rabie 2. Comparison of predicted global radiation with observed values for fourteen Indian stations (M.11m 2 day) Stations New Delhi Jodhpur Ahmedabad Calcutta Bhavnagar " Nagpur Bombay Poona Vizagapatnam Goa Madras Bangalore Kodai Kanal Trivandrum Months Obs. Pred. "o cr. Obs. Pred. % er. Obs. Pred. er. Obs. Pred. "o cr. Obs. Pred. er. Obs. Pred. er. Obs. Pred.
er.

'',,

Obs. Pred. er. Obs. Pred. " er. Obs. Pred. "o er. Obs. Pred. % er. Obs. Pred. er. Obs. Pred. er. Obs. Pred. "/ er.

Jan. 14.36 14.62 1.8 17.00 16.94 -0.2 17.64 18.42 4.4 15.21 16.21 6.5 18.52 18.91 2.0 17.70 18.57 4.8 18.19 19.10 4.9 19.10 19.40 1.4 19.35 19.01 -1.7 20.48 19.54 -4.6 18.85 18.78 -0.3 21.78 21.85 0.3 22.61 19.6 -13.2 21.36 19.98 -6.4

Feb. 18.01 18.59 3.1 20.04 20.27 1.1 20.84 21.62 3.7 18.12 19.14 5.6 21.47 21.82 1.6 20.44 21.88 7.0 20.73 21.56 3.9 22.23 22.50 1.2 21.91 21.93 0.0 22.97 22.00 -4.2 22.66 22.13 -2.3 21.00 22.30 6.1 24.16 22.05 -8.7 22.90 21.45 -6.3

March 22.11 20.55 -7.0 23.59 22.19 -5.9 24.26 23.10 -4.7 20.87 20.70 -0.8 24.73 23.97 -3.1 22.73 23.28 2.4 23.23 22.90 -1.3 24.54 24.20 -1.2 23.44 22.67 -3.2 24.34 22.88 -5.9 24.81 23.07 -6.9 24.28 24.83 2.2 24.75 22.91 -7.4 24.07 22.03 -8.4

April 24.98 23.54 -6.3 26.05 25.63 -1.6 26.42 25.39 -3.8 22.77 21.93 -3.6 26.17 25.44 -2.8 24.43 25.04 2.4 25.18 23.66 -6.0 25.80 25.20 -2.0 23.99 22.78 -4.7 24.95 23.70 -5.0 24.93 23.19 -6.9 23.75 24.35 2.5 23.16 21.97 -5.1 22.21 19.94 -10.2

May 26.25 28.33 7.9 27.18 31.44 15.6 27.41 30.08 9.7 23.50 23.87 1.5 27.38 29.35 7.2 24.90 28.04 12.6 26.16 25.36 -3.0 26.30 27.00 2.8 24.05 24.72 2.8 24.26 24.26 0.0 23.53 23.28 -1.0 22.93 23.18 1.0 21.04 20.04 -4.7 19.78 17.61 -10.9

June 23.57 20.46 -13.1 25.46 24.42 -4.0 23.01 22.86 -0.6 17.89 16.26 -9.0 21.73 20.00 -7.9 20.32 21.35 5.0 18.65 18.30 -1.8 21.20 20.00 -5.8 18.64 17.51 -6.0 17.24 16.97 -1.5 20.98 19.51 -6.9 22.05 18.03 - 18.2 19.01 17.12 -9.9 18.91 15.20 -19.6

July 19.21 18.99 -1.1 21.54 20.22 -6.1 17.45 16.95 -2.8 16.72 15.96 -4.5 16.64 15.59 -6.3 15.79 15.96 1.0 14.63 14.33 -2.0 16.30 15.80 -3.5 16.81 16.91 0.5 14.38 14.44 0.4 19.46 17.38 -10.6 15.73 16.33 3.8 16.36 16.36 0.0 18.11 15.72 -13.1

Aug. 18.20 17.79 -2.2 18.97 18.91 -0.2 16.28 16.63 2.1 16.08 15.39 -4.2 15.51 15.34 -1.0 14.86 16.33 9.8 14.32 13.97 -2.4 16.50 16.00 -2.9 17.82 18.08 1.4 17.14 16.36 -4.5 20.09 18.33 -8.7 15.94 17.63 10.5 16.92 17.43 3.0 20.02 17.68 -11.7

Sept. 20.18 18.29 -9.3 21.98 19.37 -11.8 19.97 17.52 -12.2 16.12 15.08 -6.4 19.67 18.73 -4.8 18.42 16.64 -9.6 17.57 16.69 -5.0 19.10 17.90 -6.3 18.60 18.01 -3.1 19.11 17.85 -6.5 20.57 19.37 -5.8 16.99 17.27 1.6 17.31 17.30 0.0 21.40 18.56 - 13.2

Oct. 19.28 18.46 -4.3 20.99 20.14 -4.0 20.79 20.29 -2.3 16.41 16.10 -1.9 21.27 20.52 -3.5 20.22 19.39 -4.0 19.60 19.22 -1.9 20.40 19.10 -6.4 19.03 19.07 0.2 20.22 19.56 -3.2 17.46 17.77 1.7 18.81 19.58 4.0 15.99 16.64 4.0 18.85 17.27 -8.3

Nov. 16.29 16.39 0.5 17.66 17.87 1.1 18.01 18.65 3.5 15.76 17.13 8.6 18.80 17.77 -5.4 18.48 18.78 1.6 18.27 18.66 2.0 18.90 18.60 -1.5 18.60 18.59 0.0 20.22 19.29 -4.6 15.64 16.65 6.4 16.17 16.48 1.9 17.08 16.40 -3.9 17.79 16.58 -6.8

Dec. 13.84 14.07 1.6 15.96 16.08 0.7 16.53 17.34 4.8 14.76 15.69 6.3 17.23 17.49 1.4 16.80 17.71 5.3 17.27 17.74 2.7 17.80 18.10 2.1 18.25 17.94 -1.6 19.41 18.03 -7.1 15.39 16.80 9.1 16.07 16.81 4.6 18.81 17.83 -5.1 18.48 18.13 - 1.8

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GARG and GARG: PREDICTION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION these 14 Indian stations within the prescribed error limits of 10%. The error goes beyond 50% limits even in some cases. 2. The present study predicts global radiation within +10% limits in most of the cases. The maximum over-estimation is 12.6;',', and the maximum under-estimation is 19.6%. 3. Dependence on relative humidity and ambient temperature can be better shown through water content per unit volume on the earth surface. It is more effective and easier to deal with, as it reduces the number of parameters also.

are due to several factors. Altitude vares from sealevel for Bombay, Madras, Calcutta etc. to 921 m for Bangalore and 2400 m for Kodai Kanal. Atmospheric turbidity also vares highly from station to station. Jodhpur is a very clear station while Calcutta has maximum turbidity due to its heavy industrial-ization. Also, some stations are inland stations while others are coastal stations. Atmosphere, which atten-uates the solar radiation reaching a station, is much different for these two types of stations. Also on a particular day for different stations, the zenith angle at solar noon is different, and so radiation will travel different depths of the atmosphere for different stations. Thus the radiation will suffer different amounts of attenuation. This fact also has not been taken into consideration in order to make the formula as useable as possible. If one takes into consideration all these facts, errors can be further minimised. 5. CONCLUSIONS From this study, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1. The three methods discussed in this study are not able to predict monthly mean global radiation for

REFERENCES 1. A. A. M. Sayigh, IV Course on Solar Energy Conversion, Vol. II, p. 51. International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy (1977). 2. S. J. Reddy, Solar Energy 13, 289 (1971). 3. R. K. Swartman and O. Ogunlade, Solar Energy 11, 170 (1967). 4. A. K. Angstrom, Q. .11 R. met. Soc. 20, 121 (1924). 5. J. K. Page, Proc. UN Conf. in New Sources of Energy, Vol. 4, Paper 5/98, pp. 378-387 (1964).

6. Handbook of Solar Radiation Data for India, 1980 (Compiled by Anna Mani). Allied Publishers Pvt, New Delhi (1981).