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Cost Scenarios for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells

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Roads2HyCom is a project supported by the European Commission's Framework Six program. Its purpose is to assess and monitor hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for stationary and mobile energy applications.This is done by considering what the technology is capable of, relative to current and future hydrogen infrastructures and energy resources, and the needs of communities that may be early adopters of the technology.By doing this, the project will support the Commission and stakeholders in planning future research activities. Project main website: http://www.roads2hy.com Print date: Wed, 03 Jul 2013 00:27:10 +0000

HyLights, Roads2HyCom and the Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Platform (HFP)
The European Commission is supporting the Coordination Action "HyLights" and the Integrated Project "Roads2HyCom" in the field of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. The two projects support the Commission in the monitoring and coordination of ongoing activities of the HFP, and provide input to the HFP for the planning and preparation of future research and demonstration activities within an integrated EU strategy.

The two projects are complementary and are working in close coordination. HyLights focuses on the preparation of the large scale demonstration for transport applications, while Roads2Hycom focuses on identifying opportunities for research activities relative to the needs of industrial stakeholders and Hydrogen Communities that could contribute to the early adoption of hydrogen as a universal energy vector. Further information on HyLights is available on the project web-site at http://www.hylights.org.

Cost Scenarios for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells

Contents
1 Overview 2 Transport Applications 2.1 Hydrogen cost 2.2 Fuel cell drivetrain cost 3 Stationary applications 3.1 Backup power 3.2 CHP Application 4 CO2 emissions 4.1 Transport applications 4.2 Stationary applications 4.3 References

Overview
The table below provides an overview about the main specifications of the reference systems used in applications, which are described in the case studies in the appendices mentioned below the table.

Application

Power Energy Reference Use Technology

kW MJ/unit 80

Fuel

No. of Operational Lifetime Investment Maintanece Units Use cost cost

unit/year yr 15 EUR/kW 46 EUR/unit 0.03 EUR/km

Passenger cars

Diesel/Gasoline 231000000 13200 km/yr

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Cost Scenarios for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells

1.95 MJ/km Buses Light trucks License free vehicle Outdoor utility vehicle Scooter Forklift (diesel) Forklift (electric) Tow truck airplanes Airplanes Sight seeing boat Truck APU Pleasure boat APU Mega Yacht APU Airplane APU Back-up Telecom Back-up Hospital Industrial CHP Residential CHP 1.1 200 250 boiler 4.0 MJ/KWhr 10.5 MJ/KWhr 9.0 MJ/kWhr n.a 67 200 2 500 59.8 MJ/hr 149.4 MJ/hr 2.25 MJ/hr 4885 MJ/hr 220 95 4 10 5 45 20 75 12.2 MJ/km 2.05 MJ/km 1.06 MJ/km 1.24 MJ/km 0.81 MJ/km 13.0 MJ/km 3.59 MJ/km 79.3 MJ/km Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Gasoline Diesel Electric Diesel Kerosine Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Kerosine Electric Diesel Natural Gas Natural Gas 417000 14900 440000 90000000 56 hr/yr 56 hr/yr 8760 hr/yr n.a 10 15 5 5 1837 278 633 n.a 476 EUR/yr 475 EUR/yr 0.0055 EUR/kWhr 500 100000 50000 50 2000 hr/yr 500 hr/yr 720 hr/yr 3000 hr/yr 12 10 10 500 400 257 1.75 EUR/hr 0.08 EUR/hr 0.50 EUR/hr 2.44 EUR/hr 600000 30000000 525000 300000 1400000 1620000 2430000 1250 50000 km/yr 50000 km/yr 5500 km/yr 5000 km/yr 5000 km/yr 10000 km/yr 10000 km/yr 1400 hr/yr 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 46 46 500 500 200 80 600 100 0.07 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 0.06 EUR/km 0.12 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 2.14 EUR/km

The transport applications considered in the case studies are:

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Case Study: Hydrogen FC Passenger Vehicles Case Study: Hydrogen ICE Passenger Vehicles Case Study: Hydrogen FC Buses Case Study: Hydrogen ICE Buses Case Study: Light duty trucks Case Study: License-less vehicles Case Study: Outdoor Utility Vehicles Case Study: Scooter Case Study: Forklift Case Study: Aircraft Towing Vehicle Case Study: Aircraft Case Study: Sightseeing Canal Boat The transport applications where the fuel cell is used as auxiliary power unit are: Case Study: Truck APU Case Study: Pleasure Boat APU Case Study: Mega Yacht APU Case Study: Aircraft APU The stationary applications for fuel cell systems that are considered: Case Study: Back-up/Remote Power for Telecom Case Study: Back-up for Hospitals Case Study: Power plant/Commercial CHP Case Study: Micro-CHP (1-5 kW) The reference systems are replaced by a hydrogen/fuel cell system with the expected characteristics as shown in Table 5. Table 5: Characteristics of the hydrogen/fuel cell system for the applications. Application
Passenger cars Passenger cars Buses Buses Light trucks License-free vehicle Outdoor utility vehicle Scooter Forklift (diesel) Forklift (electric)

H2/FC technology Power H2/FC technology H2 use or fuel Maintenance cost

kW PEMFC H2-ICE PEMFC H2-ICE PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC 80 80 220 220 95 4 10 5 45 20 MJ/unit 0.8 MJ/km 1.7 MJ/km 5.9 MJ/km 12.2 MJ/km 1.0 MJ/km 0.6 MJ/km 0.6 MJ/km 0.4 MJ/km 7.0 MJ/km 4.0 MJ/km EUR/unit 0.01 EUR/km 0.02 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 0.07 EUR/km 0.04 EUR/km 0.06 EUR/km 0.03 EUR/km 0.05 EUR/km 0.05 EUR/km

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Tow truck airplanes Airplanes Sight seeing boat Truck APU Pleasure boat APU Mega-Yacht APU Airplane APU Back-up Telecom Back-up Hospitals Industrial CHP Industrial CHP Industrial CHP Residential CHP

PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC DMFC refoeming + PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC PEMFC reforming + PEMFC MCFC SOFC + GT SOFC

75 20 5 0.063 500 1.1 200 200 200 200 1

18.5 MJ/hr 30.0 MJ/hr 10.0 MJ/hr methanol methanol 9.0 MJ/kWh 7.2 MJ/kWh Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas

1.43 EUR/hr 0.84 EUR/hr 0.04 EUR/hr 2.00 EUR/hr 476 EUR/yr 475 EUR/yr 0.0055 EUR/kWh 0.0055 EUR/kWh 0.0055 EUR/kWh 250 EUR/yr

Transport Applications
In the Appendices the cost curves of assumed fuel cell (or H2-ICE) system cost vs. allowable hydrogen costs are provided. In Figure 3 the cost curve for different transport applications using diesel as fuel are presented. The diesel fuel cost in this figure is the estimated European average cost in 2030 of 33.4 EUR/GJ. For passenger cars it is assumed that the average mileage for diesel cars is 20.000 km/yr, which is larger than the mileage of the average European car (13.200 km/yr). The figure shows that the cost targets for the FC system and hydrogen for the high power applications (bus; light truck; passenger car and forklift) are more severe than for the low power applications like the sightseeing boat; scooter; outdoor utility car and license-less car. These low power applications may have a much higher assumed FC cost; making these systems more attractive as an early market. -graph------------If the hydrogen is used for these applications in a combustion engine, the allowable hydrogen costs need to be much lower than the hydrogen costs for the same application using fuel cells. This is caused by the higher efficiency of the fuel cell system, as can be observed in Figure 4. In Figure 5 the cost curve for different applications using electricity as energy source are presented. The electricity cost in this figure is the estimated European average cost in 2030 of 33.6 EUR/GJ. The use of batteries for energy storage is more efficient than using hydrogen as the storage medium and use the fuel cell for the energy conversion. The driving range of applications using the batteries is limited; the use of hydrogen as the driving range extender is profitable as can be seen in the case of the use of forklifts during 24/5 operation compared to 8/5 operation. In 24/5 operation the batteries are exchanged and recharged

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separately. The number of electric outdoor utility vehicles and sightseeing boats are still so low that the reference technology for the electric motor and electric system is expensive. If fuel cell systems become competitive, the cost of the electric motor will also decrease. Reduction of the cost of the electric motor will reduce the cost of the reference technology as much as for the fuel cell technology. The main effect of the fuel cell system is in this case replacing (part of) the battery energy storage system.

Table 6: H2 production mix from the member state input in the Hyways project. Hyways
By-product Coal + CCS Natural Gas Nuclear HT Grid Wind Biomass Solar HT Total

2020
28% 3% 34% 0% 3% 10% 21% 0% 100%

2030
4% 25% 26% 4% 7% 9% 18% 7% 100%

2040
2% 16% 31% 15% 5% 8% 16% 7% 100%

2050
1% 13% 26% 31% 3% 8% 13% 5% 100%

Hydrogen cost

Production cost of hydrogen in 2030 The outcome of ?Source-to-tank: Technology pathways and carbon balance? has been the cost as shown in Figure below and GHG emission from various pathways for hydrogen production. In order to obtain the average hydrogen cost, results from the Hyways study [3] are used. In the Hyways study an estimation of the contribution of different hydrogen production processes to the total production is made, see Table 6. Combining these 2 inputs and adding an assumption for the cost of hydrogen from by-product sources (20 EUR/GJ) and the solar high temperature process (50 EUR/GJ) leads to the hydrogen costs of the different processes as well as an average cost as shown in Figure 7.

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Cost of hydrogen (EUR2000/kWh) from different sources using WT 4.3 and HyWays production mix for 2030 from member state review. Since the contribution of by-product hydrogen and solar HT are small, the influence on the average production cost of hydrogen is also small. The WP 4.3 report states the hydrogen cost of biomass gasification as 20.3 EUR/GJ, the number that is used here; which is different from the number in Figure 6. 100% on-site electrolysis is assumed, as well as 25% of the SMR is performed on-site. The other processes are performed centrally and require distribution of the produced hydrogen for which a cost of 6.7 EUR/GJ is calculated in WP 4.3. The VAT is treated separately and the EU average of 19% is used. The forecourt costs are based on the study by Shell [12] and amount to 10 EUR/GJ.

Competitive fuel cell system costs vs fuel cell capacity for H2 cost of 65 EUR/GJ including VAT at the filling station from the average EU-mix for production and distribution with diesel engines as reference technology

For the average EU-mix production and distribution cost of H2 of 65 EUR/GJ including VAT, the competitive fuel cell system cost that will give the same cost/km as the diesel engine reference technology is provided in Figure 8. The fuel cell capacity for the different applications is on the X-axis. The mileage for these applications is the same as used in Figure 3. Please note that the mean diesel cost in 2030 including duty and taxes is used in the comparison. The effect of the VAT addition to the H2 cost on the allowable fuel cell cost is larger for the applications with higher operating hours like the bus or the sight-seeing boat. From this Figure can also be seen that the smaller fuel cell systems may have a higher investment cost. The fuel cell system also includes the hydrogen storage, batteries and electric motor and control that will have relative higher investment costs at lower capacity. Secondly, except for scooters, the scale of production for these smaller systems is much smaller than for the other selected applications, leading to lower cost reductions from mass

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Fuel cell drivetrain cost

Stationary applications
The situation for the applications in the stationary market is more complex than for transport due to a wider range of power (1-1000 kW), diversity in fuel choice (H2; natural gas; LPG; biogas) associated with a variety of fuel cell types, and a wider range in load factor (from a few hrs/yr for back-up to continuous operation). In CHP applications the heat is also used and these systems can be controlled by heat demand as well as by electricity demand. For back-up systems reliability and cost are the most important drivers. In this study the CHP applications and back-up power applications will be treated separately, although CHP units can in principle also be used as back-up power in case of grid outage.

Backup power
Due to the low operating hours required for back-up power (see Figure 11), the efficiency and energy cost of the fuel cell system are of minor importance. Also lifetime issues play no significant role. For small power systems like in the telecom sector, the reference back-up solution is the battery-UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply). These batteries need to be conditioned and can provide power for a limited amount of time due to the battery capacity. A PEM fuel cell UPS can provide power for practically unlimited time provided that the hydrogen supply is secured, giving this solution a higher reliability.

Average power outage time in min/year for different countries in 2006 caused by faults or unplanned One standard B50 cylinder filled with H2 at 200 bar can provide approx. 10 kWh of back-up power. The reference cost level for the telecom UPS is around 3000 EUR/kWe, a value in reach for hydrogen based PEMFC systems at this moment. Larger back-up systems around 100 kW use a diesel generator as the main generator in combination with a battery to overcome the start-up time. In order to guarantee the reliability of the diesel generator the maintenance of these systems is an important item. Due to the requirement of start-up time, for fuel cell back-up solutions the PEMFC is the fuel cell of choice since it can operate from room temperature. The size and relative cost of the hydrogen storage facility becomes more important for the larger back-up systems. The size, the requirement for fast start-up and for lifetime compare well to PEMFC systems for passenger

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cars.

CHP Application
The CHP application is characterised by a large number of operating hours per year and cost/kWh is the main driver. The applications considered are residential (1 kW) and small industrial (250 kW) applications.

Economy of industrial CHP applications on NG in different countries

Economy of residential CHP applications on NG in different countries For CHP applications natural gas is the dominant choice of fuel. In most countries the infrastructure is present and the fuel can be easily reformed and cleaned which makes it well suited for fuel cell applications. The economy of the CHP application depends strongly on: Electricity cost and feed-in tariff Natural gas cost Reference technology heating efficiency Fuel cell electrical and heating efficiency Fuel cell investment cost (additional to reference technology cost) and lifetime System load factor (depends on heat/electricity demand and feed-in regulation) An example on how the electricity and natural gas cost in the different countries of the EU influence the economy is shown in Figure 12 for small industrial applications. At the straight line the cost of electricity from the CHP system equals the cost of electricity from the grid for the assumptions as shown in the graph. Countries lying further below the line are in principle more interesting for CHP applications on a cost basis. The status of 2007 is shown. Taking into account the price scenario from Appendix 1 for gas and electricity and applied to the EU as a whole, the conclusion is that CHP becomes less attractive in time (EU2007 compared to EU2030) if the assumed price scenario is valid, i.e. a steeper increase of gas price compared to electricity price until 2030. The MCFC fuel cell system cost is a target cost value for 2020; the energy costs are for the year 2007. For residential CHP applications the situation is comparable to the industrial CHP applications as shown in Figure 13, taking into account the consumer energy prices. For 2030 the high efficiency condensing boiler

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will not be anymore the system of reference, as is stated in Appendix T.

CO2 emissions
The CO2 emissions from the different production pathways and the EU-mix for 2030 from Table 6 are presented.

CO2 emissions for the different pathways in the hydrogen production mix for 2030 from the Hyways project The CO2 emissions for the production pathways are based on the well to wheel studies in the Concawe project [2].

Transport applications
The use of H2 in transport applications can reduce CO2 emissions. The reduction depends on the source for the H2 and the energy source of the reference technology.The maximum reduction occurs when (off-shore) wind energy is used for the H2 production using electrolysis compared to diesel or gasoline ICE. Battery operated electrical vehicles have a lower CO2 emission than fuel cell operated electrical vehicles assuming that the hydrogen for the fuel cell vehicles is produced by electrolysis from the same energy source for electricity production as to be used for charging the batteries. For the applications where H2-ICE are used, the CO2 emission factor for the H2 should be much lower in order to obtain the same CO2 emission reduction compared to the same application using fuel cells.

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CO2 emission of the reference vehicle on diesel and FC vehicle using hydrogen from different sources. The bar shows the range of CO2 emission factors for H2 for which the CO2 emission of the FC vehicle equals the emission of the reference vehicle. In the Figure the CO2 emission of 3 reference vehicles and their fuel cell vehicles are compared for hydrogen from different sources. With a CO2 emission factor for H2 between 150 and 180 gCO2/MJ the effect on total CO2 emissions will be negligible. The emission factor using the Hyways mix is also provided and the distance to the line of the reference vehicle provides the potential CO2 reduction. Multiplication of this distance with the average mileage and the number of vehicles in Europe provides the potential CO2 reduction for Europe, which is presented in Figure 16. For the calculation the present number of vehicles are used and the assumption that the H2-ICE/fuel cell replaces all fossil fuel combustion engines. The largest reduction potential with 270 Mton/year is for the passenger vehicle market using fuel cells, the potential being practically halved for the H2-ICE operated passenger vehicles. The buses and forklifts CO2 reduction potential is an order of magnitude lower than for passenger vehicles; the other applications have a reduction potential of 3 orders of magnitude or less compared to the passenger vehicle case.

CO2reduction potential for Europe for the different applications using the H2 production mix from Hyways. When the CO2 emission reduction potential per installed capacity is calculated, the picture is different, as is shown in Figure 17. The passenger vehicle has the lowest potential per kWe due to an efficient reference technology, low operating hours and part load operation. The largest CO2 emission reduction potential per installed capacity is obtained when engine idling for electricity generation is replaced by a fuel cell system for electricity production/ battery charging as in the truck APU, the mega-yacht APU and pleasure boat APU as can be seen in Figure 17. In order to reach the maximum potential CO2 emission reduction, the hydrogen produced by electrolysis of wind energy is the preferred source. In Figure 19 the required wind power capacity for the production of all the hydrogen from wind is estimated using a wind load factor of 30% and an electrolyser efficiency (LHV) of 70%.

CO2reduction potential for different applications and per installed capacity of the conversion unit

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CO2reduction potential for different applications and per installed capacity of the conversion unit

Maximum CO2 reduction potential for Europe assuming H2 production from electrolysis of wind energy for the different applications

Estimated required capacity of wind turbines for the hydrogen production by electrolysis per application.

Maximum CO2 emission factor for H2 for the different applications using diesel or gasoline.

In order to produce the hydrogen for the FC passenger cars by this process, the installed wind turbine capacity in Europe has to increase 8-fold from 48 GW (status 2006) to 386 GW and only be used for hydrogen production. If the hydrogen is used for the H2-ICE passenger cars, the installed wind turbine capacity has to double once more due to the lower efficiency of the H2 combustion engine compared to the fuel cell.

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Stationary applications

References

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