NEED FOR STRONG DECISION SUPPORT(DS) SYSTEMS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Dr.Thrivikramj.K.P. Professor Emeritus thrivikramji@gmail.com

CC, a grave threat to the planet - a threat multiplier. The solution: Reduce the GHG emissions, the root cause.

Dangers of global warming drought, famine, rising seas. Though decades off. Sacrifice here & now to prevent. Smaller cars, bigger investments in new energy sources, inevitably higher electricity bills.
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Climate- induced crises like drought, starvation, disease and mass migration, could unleash regional conflicts or intra-national conflicts.
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The longer the world waits, the sooner it will reach a tipping point beyond which even draconian measures may not be enough. Warn Scientists .
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Under one scenario, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, now ~ 380 ppm, should not exceed 450 ppm. But staying below that threshold requires stabilizing them by 2015 or 2020, & actually reducing them at least 60%, by 2050.

Dr.Rajendra Pachauri (the Chair, IPCC, no alarmist), warned that what we do in the next two or three years will determine our future. And he said that two years ago.
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Indian Monsoon: The Canvass

Nations lifeblood; 80% rain fall in WM active JuneSept; Food & Water security of nation 60% Indians farm dependent; Health & productivity of 500 million farm animals; Power generation & recharge aquifers
Courtesy:MSSRF
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All rainfall in 100 hr.

Sub-regional variations in extreme rain fall patterns; so droughts & floods rise; now drought hit areas under flood; aquifers recharge and reservoirs and ponds fill up for a good rabi crop.
Courtesy:MSSRF

Climate Change models Indian Monsoon:

Climate Change models: Rising temps; Rising sea levels; more cyclones; frequent coastal storms; Storm surges of higher reach & damaging coastal flooding.
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Average day/night max temp to rise. Rise in av.temp. by a deg. C at night shortens duration of wheat by one week in Punjab & Haryana;
Courtesy:MSSRF
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CC Impacts

60% farmed area rainfed; Anticipatory Actions; Protect coastal ecology & livelihood security of coastal communities; Sustainable, food, water & livelihood securities
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CC preparedness:

Training modules for training Climate Risk Managers; Based on conventional wisdom & frontier knowledge/technology; One man/woman climate manager team for every village; Ensuring food & water security and reduce suffering from CC risks
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The MSSRF, Chennai

NCCI Sensitization Program:

To sensitize the citizen, community leaders, vos, activists and all government functionaries; Covering health, education & community welfare, forest & ecology; natural resources management sectors. A knowledge Action Plan

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Current Governance
Several century old Acts & Rules, Conventions, Processes & Systems of governance in Statute books of the Nation. Inadequate to address issues of a modern-knowledge-society. Modern issues call for scientific solutions & procedures. CC due to GHG is no exception.
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DECISION SUPPORT,DS
CC impact-mitigation-adaptation Need solutions founded on science, processes designed from knowledge, systems & practices enabling scientific & technologic tools, beneficial to society, ecosystems, environment and sustainability of resources.
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DECISION SUPPORT,DS
Applicable in various facets of National Fabric (e.g., routine issues, surprises and disasters). Public health to risk assessment, software development, resource management etc. CC challenges in our current context.
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DECISION SUPPORT,DS
Community (society leaders, academia, technocrats, managers & administrators, advocacy groups, VOs, NGOs) participation, location specific processes/products, supported by data and research, with timelines & milestones.
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C.C. RELATED DECISIONS Decision Choices of individuals/organizations to mitigate or adapt CC. Decisions suited to equip & face CC & its interactions with ecological, economic & social systems.
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Decision-relevant info needs

Nature of climate variability, Effect of CC on ecological, biophysical & hydrological systems, Socio-economic drivers of CC, Vulnerability of human ecology, Effects of multiple stresses on human systems,

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Decision-relevant info needs

Available strategies for mitigation & adaptation, Likely costs & consequences of CC, & Barriers to success of CC strategies.
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Decision-relevant info needs

CC-DS shall produce, disseminate, encourage & use info to improve CC related decisions. DS rated on the ease with which effective decisions are made by decision makers.
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Success of Decision Support

Growing use of offered info, More rappo between knowledge producers and users, & Emergence of better decisions. Modern communication & outreach to members of community/society.
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Basis of Better DS
Start w/user needs, Priority of process over product, Linking producers & users, Connect across-, discipline & organizations, Institutional stability & learning.
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Data/Info for DS-CC

CC science per se is not crucial to people in charge of decisions; but indeed need DS. CC Information is basis of all decision making. Info is needed in mitigation/adaptation strategies.

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Data/Info needs for DS-CC

Reducing GG emissions; Coping with CC in low coastal lands; Saving coastal wetlands; Saving megacities like Kolkotta, Chennai, Kochi, Mumbai; Water management in the semi-arid zone of India; Wildlife management; Saving the rainforests
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Data/Info needs for CC-DS

Saving the ecosystems; Transport network management; Saving cattle & people from heat waves; Insulating societies and communities from outbreak of tropical endemic diseases; Reduction of household GHG emissions
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Data/Info needs for CC-DS

Thinking in the 90s about threat to littoral states. Assessment by the MoEF with active cooperation of institutions/labs in CL(90-92). After release of 4AR (2007), issues now different. Hinterland is equally vulnerable.
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CC-DS
Climate is changing so does scientific understanding. Warrants changes in response options & decision making. Stable bureaucratic codes/packages wont work. Need dynamic or evolving guidence.
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CC-DS
CC potentially affects all spheres of economic activity, regions of nation, levels of Govt., social organisation, professions, communities & individuals. human life. A National initiative imperative it is. Mainstreaming of CC adaptation, mitigation programs very urgent
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National Action Plan on CC

NAPCC (2008/9 thru 2017) National Missions ensuring high economic growth & co-benefits for addressing CC. Organised as a set of Missions, Ministries Report to PMCCC, failures, successes & timelines.
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National Action Plan on CC

National Solar Mission, National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency, National Mission on Sustainable Habitat, National Water Mission, National Mission for Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem, National Mission for Green India, National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, National Mission on Strategic Knowledge on CC
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Wither State Action Plan on CC? Implements National Missions; No tangible plans on any program on a mission mode; Reorientation of govt. Department/s to incentivise respective constituencies on the need for CC mitigation & adaptation measures/strategies.
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Wither State Action Plans?

However, State Govt., or GP, BP or DP follow b.a.u. approach. Ignorant' of challenges, i.e., threats and multiple stresses posed by CC. Mitigation &/or Adaptation Measures seemingly alien to. No municipality or city administration ever came up with a concern/strategy on GHG-CC. Only in the realm of science.
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CC-DS
Unlike stable bureaucratic governance codes/processes, Climate is changing, so does scientific understanding. Warrants changes in response options & decision making. Hence in DS for adaptation & mitigation strategies. Monitor & reassess is the slogan.
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CC-DS Research Areas

Social drivers of energy consumption, Landuse change, Climate vulnerability, Decision making under uncertainty, Institutional arrangement for wise use of resources.
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Goals of a successful DS system (for nation/City/town household etc.) - Reduce GHG emissions -Reduce consumption of energy. (by 10 or 20 %, in 2017) ?.
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Successful DS processes emerge when Decision makers & CC experts in a range of areas (physical, biological & social sciences ) work in tandem.
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Active stake holder ( in water, health, energy, coasts, wetland, infrastructure sectors) partnership & participation ensures success.
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Scientists input: Understanding of CC risks, Anticipate future CC risks, Estimate climate protection level, Evaluate adaptation pathways, Develop policy strategies, Monitor & reassess.
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Sector Land

Water

Air Energy Transport

Projected Goal Create sustainable & affordable housing for weaker sections Ensure open space for recreation Clean up all brown fields De-pollute & Clean up all the open water ways & ponds for recreation Re-engineer the water supply grid for better service & reliability Ensure clean air quality Emission minimal, cleaner & reliable energy for all Reduce congestion, Improve travel time, add transit capacity Keep all transport arteries in state of god repair
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CC-DS Advantages
Such an approach will make the nation a safer place for its people, and a world that we have remade ourselves and will continue to do so in future.

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Bye line

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NW 2ndweek DI/A/8/09/
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