HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

Afghanistan Counterterrorism Index

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM INDE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! " AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! # O$SER%ATION I& INHERENC'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!# THE ()AN& !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!* AD%ANTAGE I& AFGHANISTAN STA$I)IT'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+ AD%ANTAGE II& (A,ISTAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"# O$SER%ATION II& SO)%ENC' !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ".....AFGHANISTAN STA$I)IT' AD%ANTAGE E TENSIONS.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "/ ...GOOD GO%ERNANCE...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!01 222,AR3AI 4ANTS TO NEGOTIATE 4ITH THE TA)I$AN5 $UT IS INHI$ITED $' THE US 6 4ITHDRA4A) 4OU)D (ROM(T THE TA)I$AN TO ENGAGE AND SIGNA) A GO7AHEAD TO ,AR3AI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!01 222US (RESENCE UNDERMINES ,AR3AI8S )EGITIMAC' !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0" 222US (RESENCE GUTS ,AR3AI8S DOMESTIC CREDI$I)IT' 6 TROO(S ARE (ERCEI%ED AS O%ERSTA'ING THEIR 4E)COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0" 222INDE(ENDENT ,AR3AI ,E' TO CREDI$I)IT'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!00 ...IM(ACT E TENSIONS...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0# 222MIDD)E EAST 4AR GOES NUC)EAR& ISRAE) STRI,E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0# 222MIDD)E EAST INSTA$I)IT' CREATES SANCTUARIES FOR TERRORIST AND DESTRO' THE G)O$A) ECONOM'! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0* 222G)O$A) ECONOMIC CO))A(SE RIS,S E TINCTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0* 222AFGHAN INSTA$I)IT' S(I)) O%ER INTO IRAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0+ 222IRAN CONF)ICT RESU)TS IN NUC)EAR 4AR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0+ .....(A,ISTAN AD%ANTAGE E TENSIONS.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 09 222COUNTERINSURGENC' FAI)ING NO4& MAR:AH! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0222NO UNI;UENESS TO THE TURNS& COUNTER7INSURGENC' IS DOOMED TO FAI)URE AND IS U)TIMATE)' UNNECESSAR' FOR SUCCESSFU) COUNTER7TERRORISM! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0< 222COUNTER7INSURGENC' FAI)ING NO4& ,AR3AI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0/ 222NO )IN,& CAN SIGNA) DEDICATION TO (A,ISTAN 4ITHOUT TROO(S! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#1 222INCREASED TROO(S IN AFGHANISTAN INCREASES (A,ISTAN INSTA$I)IT'! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#" 222INCREASING TROO(S 4I)) CO))A(SE (A,ISTAN 6 REDUCING THE US MI)ITAR' FOOT(RINT IS %ITA) TO SO)%ING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#0 222COUNTER7INSURGENC' 4I)) INCREASE ANTI7AMERICANISM AND THE RIS, OF TERRORISM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!## 222REDUCING FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN AND FOCUSING ON COUNTER7TERRORISM EFFORTS STO(S INCREASING RADICA)ISM IN (A,ISTAN! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#* .....HEGEMON' AD%ANTAGE.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #+

"

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222COUNTERINSURGENC' 4I)) CO))A(SE HEGEMON' 6 INE%ITA$)E 4ITHDRA4 OF FAI)ED 4AR! !!!!!!!!!!!!!#9 222COUNTERINSURGENC' DOCTRINE IS O%ERSTRETCHING THE US MI)ITAR' AND E HAUSTING AMERICAN )EADERSHI( 6 4ITHDRA4ING TO A COUNTERTERRORISM STRATEG' IS %ITA) TO (RE%ENTING GREAT (O4ER CHA))ENGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#222AFGHANISTAN IS A ;UAGMIRE OF ATTRITION 4ARFARE THAT IS DESTRO'ING US MORA)E AND READINESS! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#< 222AFGHANISTAN HAS DE()ETED THE US STRATEGIC RESER%E OF GROUND FORCES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#/ 222COUNTERINSURGENC' 4I)) O$)ITERATE AMERICAN (RIMAC'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*1 222HEGEMON' ,E' TO (RE%ENTING 4OR)D 4ARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*" .....SO)%ENC' E TENSIONS.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! *0 222THE ()AN SO)%ES 6 REDUCING TO A COUNTERTERRORISM FOCUS CREATES SUSTAINA$)E (RESENCE5 AND (RE%ENTS %ACI))ATIONS $ET4EEN ENGAGEMENT AND ISO)ATIONISM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*# 222CONF)ATING COUNTERTERRORISM AND COUNTERINSURGENC' = FAI)URE> ()AN SO)%ES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!** 222COUNTERTERRORISM SO)%ES FAI)URES OF COUNTERINSURGENC'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*+ 222THE ()AN8S RE:ECTION OF COUNTERINSURGENC' CREATES A DOCTRINA) SHIFT TO4ARDS SE)ECTI%E ENGAGEMENT THAT CAN SUSTAIN US (RESENCE G)O$A))'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*9 222 AFGHANISTAN COUNTERINSURGENC' FAI)S& ?+ REASONS@ )AC, OF FORCES5 CORRU(TION5 (O(U)ATION (ROTECTION5 (U$)IC SU((ORT5 )AC, OF FOCUS ON COUNTERTERRORISM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*222THE 4ITHDRA4A) DEAD)INE MA,ES COUNTERINSURGENC' IM(OSSI$)E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*<

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC O$SER%ATION I& InherenAB The Aurrent deCate oDer Afghanistan has AonfEated Counterterrorism and CounterinsurgenAB strategies! The duaE missions haDe Areated an intraAtaCEe staEemate that ensures endEess interDentionist Farfare! $oBEe 6 01"1
[Michael J., Lectu e i! I!te !ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#ea ch Fell"% at the Ce!t e &" the Stu$' "& Te " i#( a!$ )"litical *i"le!ce at the U!i+e #it' "& St A!$ e%#, I!te !ati"!al A&&ai # ,-. 2 /20100 1112131 D" c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' 4" t"4ethe 56

This Aonfusion oDer the differenAes CetFeen Aounterterrorism and AounterinsurgenAB is not neF , 7ut it ha# 7ec"(e (" e #e i"u# "+e the la#t ei4ht 'ea #.13 Si!ce the e+e!t# "& Se8te(7e 11, these AonAeGts haDe reguEarEB Ceen AonfEated as GoEiAB7maHers haDe struggEed to Aome to griGs Fith the threat Gosed CB AE7;aeda . T" #"(e e9te!t, thi# i# !atu al. Al:
;ae$a i# a 4l"7al te " i#t " 4a!i<ati"! %hich i!te +e!e# $i ectl' i! l"cal c"!&lict# /"&te! i!#u 4e!cie#, $e&i!e$ he e a# " 4a!i<e$ +i"le!t atte(8t# t" "+e th "% a! e9i#ti!4 4"+e !(e!t0 t" 7ait the US a!$ it# allie# i!t" e9hau#ti!4 %a # "& att iti"!. I! "the %" $#, it i# a terrorist organiIation

FhiAh daCCEes /#"(eti(e# #ucce##&ull', #"(eti(e# le## #"0 in insurgenAies. $ut the faAt that the threats "& te " i#( a!$ i!#u 4e!c' are #" "&te! intertFined i! c"!te(8" a ' c"!&lict# does not maHe them fundamentaEEB eJuiDaEent or susAeGtiCEe to the same remedies! Nor does it Farrant extending AounterinsurgenAB oGerations on a gEoCaE EeDeE, a# #"(e 8 "(i!e!t auth" # ha+e #u44e#te$.1- The &u#i"! "& the th eat# & "( te " i#( a!$ i!#u 4e!c', #" "&te! $e#c i7e$ a# #'(8t"(atic "& the
c"(8le9it' "& the ("$e ! #ecu it' challe!4e#, ca! 7e (i# ea$ t" i(8l' that the e#8"!#e# t" the( #h"ul$ 7e #i(ila " e=ui+ale!t. I! &act, %hile

i!te (i9e$ i! 8 actice, these threats remain distinAt5 and reJuire a GoEiAB resGonse FhiAh disaggregates and

GrioritiIes threats and seGarates those aAtors Fho haDe a negotiaCEe GoEitiAaE Grogramme from those Fho remain inAorrigiCEe. Si(ila l', the &act that te " i#t# a!$ i!#u 4e!t# "8e ate i! the #a(e theat e, a!$ i! #"(e ca#e# &u!cti"! i! ta!$e(, i# !"t a!
a 4u(e!t &" a e#8"!#e that #ea(le##l' i!te %ea+e# ele(e!t# "& c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' . I!$ee$, the e i# !" ea#"! t" a##u(e that

the Far in Afghanistan suggests Coth modeEs of Farfare inDoEDe tradeoffs " c"#t# that (a' offset the gains (a$e 7' the "the . U!le## the#e t a$e"&&# a e 8 "8e l' (a!a4e$, the simuEtaneous deGEoBment of Aounterterrorism and AounterinsurgenAB oGerations (a' "8e ate at c "##:8u 8"#e# a!$ maHe Eong7term strategiA suAAess more eEusiDe . The &act that US a!$ U> lea$e # ha+e 7ee! #" %illi!4 t" #8lit the $i&&e e!ce 7et%ee! c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c'? and t" i4!" e the "&&#etti!4 c"#t# "& each? maB hel8 t" aAAount for the Aurrent GainfuE staEemate in Afghanistan. Thi# a ticle %ill a 4ue that c"u!te te " i#( a!$
c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' #t ate4ie# a e &ull' c"(8ati7le " (utuall' ei!&" ci!4. The ec" $ "& athe that c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' a e t%" $i#ti!ct ("$el# "& %a %hich ca! "8e ate at c "##:8u 8"#e# %he! @"i!tl' a88lie$ t" l"%:i!te!#it' c"!&lict# #uch a# that i! A&4ha!i#ta!. The c"!&lati"! "& the#e t%" $i&&e e!t ("$el# "& %a &a e #te(# & "( a! i!tellectual e " , %hich a##u(e# that a &u#e$ th eat /&" e9a(8le, 7et%ee! a !ati"!ali#t i!#u 4e!t 4 "u8 liAe the Tale7a! a!$ a t a!#!ati"!al te " i#t 4 "u8 liAe Al:;ae$a0 (u#t !ece##a il' 7e (et 7' a @"i!t " 7le!$e$ c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' a88 "ach. I! &act, these tFo modeEs of Farfare inDoEDe diDergent assumGtions aCout

the roEes of forAe5 the imGortanAe of Finning suGGort among the EoAaE GoGuEation5 and the neAessitB of CuiEding a strong and reGresentatiDe goDernment. Such a88 "ache# a e !"t !ece##a il' (utuall' ei!&" ci!4 " e+e! c"(8ati7le. At
the tactical a!$ #t ate4ic le+el, the e a e at lea#t &"u 8"##i7le "&&#etti!4 c"#t#?8"8ula 7acAla#h, c"u!te ("7ili<ati"! "& e!e(' !et%" A#, a le4iti(ac' 4a8 a!$ $i(i!i#he$ le+e a4e?that (a' 7e i!cu e$ %he! c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' a e $e8l"'e$ #i(ulta!e"u#l'. At the 8"litical le+el, the

AonfEation of Aounterterrorism and AounterinsurgenAB risHs GroduAing an oDerEB interDentionist foreign GoEiAB FhiAh distraAts and exhausts the US a!$ U> as theB treat an eDer7inAreasing numCer of EoAaEiIed insurgenAies as the inAuCators of future terrorist threats !

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC

The (Ean:

The U!ite$ State# &e$e al 4"+e !(e!t #h"ul$ e("+e all &" ce# i! A&4ha!i#ta! that a e u!!ece##a ' &" c"u!te te " i#( "8e ati"!#.

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC AD%ANTAGE I& Afghanistan StaCiEitB The Aurrent AounterinsurgenAB strategB has made the United States CehoEden to the AorruGt ,arIai GoDernment5 undermining demands for reform and good goDernanAe! $oBEe 6 01"1
[Michael J., Lectu e i! I!te !ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#ea ch Fell"% at the Ce!t e &" the Stu$' "& Te " i#( a!$ )"litical *i"le!ce at the U!i+e #it' "& St A!$ e%#, I!te !ati"!al A&&ai # ,-. 2 /20100 1112131 D" c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' 4" t"4ethe 56 Fi!all', a c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' (i##i"! ca! ha+e "&&#etti!4 e&&ect# "! c"u!te :te " i#( 4"al# i& it #e!$# a #i4!al "& c"((it(e!t that i!a$+e te!tl' e$uce# the le+e a4e the &" ei4! 7acAe ha# "+e it# 8a t!e 4"+e !(e!t. Ju#t a# the US lea !e$ t" it# 8e il %ith S"uth *iet!a(, each $eci#i"! t" #e!$ a$$iti"!al t ""8# a!$ e#"u ce# e+eal# h"% (uch the US !ee$# t" %i!, the e7' e$uci!4 it# le+e a4e "+e it# l"cal 8a t!e .,B Thi# i# 8 "7le(atic 7ecau#e c"u!te te " i#( c""8e ati"! $e8e!$# "! le+e a4e, e#8eciall' %he! the &" ei4! 7acAe a#A# the l"cal 4"+e !(e!t t" u!$e taAe " auth" i<e c"#tl' "8e ati"!# t" ca8tu e " Aill #u#8ecte$ te " i#t#. The e i# ce tai!l' e+i$e!ce that thi# $'!a(ic i# i! 8la' i! e#8ect "& )aAi#ta!, %hich ha# ecei+e$ C13 7illi"! i! ai$ & "( the US, (uch "& it ea (a Ae$ &" c"u!te te " i#( #u88" t, "!l' t" &i!$ that the &u!$# a e $i+e te$ i!t" %ea8"!# t" 7e u#e$ a4ai!#t I!$ia.,, )aAi#ta! ha# e&u#e$ t" e!$ it# tacit #u88" t &" the A&4ha! Tale7a!, %h" "8e ate & eel' i! ;uetta, a!$ the e a e u!c"!&i (e$ e8" t# that the Tale7a! #till ecei+e &u!$# & "( it# i!telli4e!ce #e +ice.,D Si(ila l',

(resident OCama8s deAEaration of Afghanistan as a KneAessarB Far8 and his deAision to send #15111 additionaE US trooGs aGGear to haDe made the ,arIai regime Eess FiEEing to aAAede to AmeriAan demands oDer AorruGtion reform and imGroDed goDernanAe. R" ' Ste%a t ha# 8"i!te$ "ut that Kthe more Fe giDe5 the Eess infEuenAe Fe haDe oDer the Afghan goDernment5 FhiAh CeEieDes Fe need it more than it needs us! Ehat i!ce!ti+e $" A&4ha! lea$e # ha+e t" e&" ( i& thei c"u!t ' i# all"%e$ t" 8 "$uce D2
8e ce!t "& the %" l$F# he "i! a!$ #till ecei+e C20 7illi"! "& i!te !ati"!al ai$5FD0 It e(ai!# t" 7e #ee! %hethe thi# lacA "& c"(8lia!ce %ill #8ill "+e i!t" e#8"!#e# t" c"u!te te " i#( $e(a!$#, 7ut it i# %" th a#Ai!4 %hethe thi# e!e%e$ c"((it(e!t t" COIN #t ate4ie# i! the A&)aA e4i"! %ill lea+e the US 8u!chi!4 7e!eath it# %ei4ht %ith 7"th 4"+e !(e!t#.

The US is so heaDiEB inDested in stoGGing the sGread of DioEenAe in the regionLto the Goint that it FiEE toEerate Coth Afghanistan and (aHistan exGEoiting their Arises for GrofitLthat it maB find it EaAHs the EeDerage needed to aAhieDe its essentiaE Aounterterrorism goaEs!

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC Good goDernanAe HeB to Afghan staCiEitB DMSouIa 6 011/
[Sha!thie Ma iet, A##"ciate Fell"% at I!#titute &" De&e!ce Stu$ie# a!$ A!al'#e#, TalAi!4 t" the Tali7a!. Eill it E!#u e G)eaceG i! A&4ha!i#ta!5 St ate4ic A!al'#i#, *"lu(e 11, I##ue 2 Ma ch 200D6

three deAades of inAessant fighting has Eed to a situation of MreAonAiEiation defiAitM in Afghanistan, %hich i# e&lecte$ i! the "!4"i!4 i!te :eth!ic $i#t u#t a!$ "!4"i!4 8"%e #t u44le 7et%ee! the )a#htu! a!$ N" the ! Allia!ce 4 "u8#. Serious AhaEEenges to goDernanAe haDe GEagued the COIN effort and the ArediCiEitB of the Afghan GoDernment. LacA "& acce## t" 7a#ic a(e!itie# #uch a# "a$#, elect icit', a!$ $ i!Ai!4 %ate a e Ae' c"!ce !# "& the u al 8"8ulati"!. The MgoDernanAe defiAitM is further exaAerCated CB ramGant AorruGtion5 a sBstem of Gatronage5 and the aCsenAe of GuCEiA institutions AaGaCEe of mediating in EoAaE5 nationaE5 and regionaE AonfEiAts. The faiEure to estaCEish ruEe of EaF has undermined AonfidenAe in the Afghan GoDernment. The i!te !ati"!al $e+el"8(e!t e&&" t i! A&4ha!i#ta! i#, (" e"+e , u!$e :
M" e tha! e#"u ce$ a!$ e+e! the li(ite$ e#"u ce# a e 7ei!4 #=ua!$e e$.1, The neF Afghan institutions that ha+e e(e 4e$ "ut "& the 2001:2002 H"!! ) "ce## are #till regarded CB manB as unreGresentatiDe, the #u7#e=ue!t electi"!# !"t%ith#ta!$i!4. A !u(7e "& i!$i+i$ual# %ith $i ect tie# t" the c"u!t 'G# %a l" $#, a!$ th"#e cl"#el' a##"ciate$ %ith the $ u4 t a$e %e e electe$ t" A&4ha!i#ta!G# !e% 8a lia(e!t, 8 "("ti!4 a Gcultu e "& i(8u!it'G.1D ) e#e!tl', some "& the triCes and Aommunities that do not feeE inAEuded in the Aurrent

GoEitiAaE GroAess or do not Cenefit adeJuateEB from the reAonstruAtion and deDeEoGment5 haDe reasons to suGGort anti7goDernment aAtiDities5 eDen in a GassiDe FaB. Thu#, to aAhieDe a staCEe seAuritB enDironment and a goDernment that earns trust and EegitimaAB5 the COIN effort FiEE haDe to inAEude MGoEitiAaE outreaAh to disaffeAted grouGsG.20 I! "the %" $#, the MdisaffeAted AommunitiesM Fithin Afghanistan FiEE haDe to Ce engaged through a serious negotiation and reAonAiEiation GroAess to maHe maximum use of the raGidEB shrinHing GoEitiAaE sGaAe!

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC Ending the CounterinsurgenAB strategB FouEd sGur a GoEitiAaE transition to negotiations5 ending AonfEiAt in Afghanistan DMSouIa 011/
[Sha!thie Ma iet, A##"ciate Fell"% at I!#titute &" De&e!ce Stu$ie# a!$ A!al'#e#, TalAi!4 t" the Tali7a!. Eill it E!#u e G)eaceG i! A&4ha!i#ta!5 St ate4ic A!al'#i#, *"lu(e 11, I##ue 2 Ma ch 200D6
De&'i!4 the i!itial e98ectati"!# "& t"tal a!$ #%i&t a!!ihilati"! i! the a&te (ath "& O8e ati"! E!$u i!4 F ee$"( /OEF0, the TaEiCan Aontinue to mount EethaE attaAHs Fithin Afghanistan & "( thei #a!ctua ' i! the )aAi#ta!i t i7al a ea# al"!4 the 7" $e %ith A&4ha!i#ta!. Ehile S"uth a!$ Ea#t A&4ha!i#ta! ha+e t a$iti"!all' 7ee! ha88' hu!ti!4 4 "u!$# &" the Tali7a!, other areas, e+e! i! the elati+el' #ta7le N" th, haDe Fitnessed inAreased inseAuritB and instaCiEitB . The !et i(8act "& the#e %a+e# "& +i"le!ce a!$ 8 "8a4a!$a %a lau!che$ 7' the Tali7a!:le$ i!#u 4e!c'1 ha# 7ee! #i4!i&ica!t "! the A&4ha! 8"8ulace, ("#t "& %h"( a e !"t #u88" te # "& the Tali7a!. Thi# e4i(e "& i!ti(i$ati"! a!$ +i"le!ce, c"(7i!e$ %ith the ineffeAtiDeness of the i!te !ati"!al c"((u!it'G# Counter7insurgenAB /COIN0 AamGaign2 to GroDide seAuritB and the sEuggish Grogress in reCuiEding the AountrB, has had an adDerse imGaAt on the Afghan GoDernmentMs EegitimaAB among its GoGuEaAe . It# each, a# a e#ult, ha# 7ee! cu taile$ a!$ it# auth" it' ha# %a!e$. O8ti(i#( a("!4 the A&4ha!#, %hich %a# 4e!e ate$ i! the a&te (ath "& the t"88li!4 "& the Tali7a! e4i(e, i# 4 a$uall' 4i+i!4 %a' t" $e#8"!$e!c'.

In Eight of the deteriorating seAuritB situation5 there is a groFing reAognition among Afghan and NATO Eeaders that GeaAe in Afghanistan FiEE not Ce Fon CB the miEitarB effort aEone! Mere reorienting of miEitarB manoeuDres risHs GroEonging and intensifBing the armed AonfEiAt5 Fithout initiating GroAesses of negotiations and reAonAiEiation5 to reCuiEd a Croad GoEitiAaE Aonsensus in suGGort of the Afghan GoDernment! Rec"!ciliati"! a!$ !e4"tiati"!# a e +ie%e$ a# (echa!i#(# t" %ea+e:i! $i#a&&ecte$ ele(e!t# i!#i$e the Gte!tG %hich i! tu !
c"ul$ e "$e the #u88" t 7a#e &" the Tali7a!. The 8"liticall' $i#a&&ecte$ 4 "u8# : "!l' #"(e "& %h"( a e %ith the Tali7a!, " "the # %h" !"% ha+e c"(("! 4 "u!$ %ith the Tali7a! : !ee$ t" 7e 7 "u4ht "+e . It %"ul$ 7e ti(el' t" e98l" e #uch 8"lic' alte !ati+e# i! e&&ecti+el' tacAli!4 the 8 e#e!t i!#u 4e!c'. The !ee$ &" #uch ec"!ciliati"!, talA#, a!$ !e4"tiati"!# u#e$ i!te cha!4ea7l' i! thi# a ticle i# cha acte i<e$ 7' the c"(("! 8a la!ce, "& G!e4"tiati!4 %ith the Tali7a!G. F" "7+i"u# ea#"!#, it c"!ti!ue# t" e+"Ae #t "!4 eacti"!# & "( (a!' =ua te #. It i# i(8" ta!t t" !"te at the "ut#et that thi# a ticle $"e# !"t 8 "("te ac=uie#ce!ce t" Tali7a! $e(a!$# !" e9t"l Tali7a!G# +i tue#. The a ticle l""A# 8 i(a il' at an

aEternatiDe GoEiAB oGtion that manB internationaE and Afghan anaEBsts are inAreasingEB GroGosing and that is gaining AurrenAB 7 to moDe toFards a nationaE reAonAiEiation FhiAh inAEudes negotiating Fith the insurgents! The Afghan GoDernment has indiAated its FiEEingness to negotiate Fith the MAfghan TaEiCanM .
The &"cu# "& the a ticle, the e&" e, %ill 7e "! 8 "#8ect# &" !e4"tiati"!# a!$ ec"!ciliati"! %ith the A&4ha! Tali7a! a!$ thei a&&iliate#, a!$ !"t the G("$e ate Tali7a!G.1 O& late, 7"th the A&4ha! I"+e !(e!t a!$ the i!te !ati"!al c"((u!it' ha+e 7ee! i!+"l+e$ i! $i&&e e!t le+el# "& c"((u!icati"!# a!$ $eali!4# %ith the Tali7a!. Ma!' c"!ce !# a!$ $"u7t# a7"u!$ a# &a a# the $e#i a7ilit' a!$ &ea#i7ilit' "& #uch a 8 "ce## i# c"!ce !e$. Thi# a ticle i# a #t"cA:taAi!4 e9e ci#e "& the !ua!ce# a!$ i(8licati"!# "& #uch 8"lic' 8"#tu e# that c"ul$ ai$ " i(8e$e 8eace:7uil$i!4 8 "ce##e# i! the c"!&lict: i$$e! c"u!t '. The "le "& talA# a!$ ec"!ciliati"! i! a$$ e##i!4 the A&4ha! i!#u 4e!c' The i##ue "& ec"!ciliati"! a!$ !e4"tiati"!# i# a! e##e!tial c"(8"!e!t "& a!' COIN #t ate4', e#8eciall' i! a c"u!t ' %h"#e #"cial &a7 ic ha# 7ee! #e+e el' $a(a4e$ th "u4h $eca$e# "& c"!&lict. Thi# ha# 7ee! e!u(e ate$ i! +a i"u# ece!t #tu$ie#. Acc" $i!4 t" a ece!t #tu$' 7' RAND C" 8" ati"!, MMiEitarB forAe has rareEB Ceen the GrimarB reason for the end of terrorist grouGs and nearEB haEf of the terror grouGs anaEBsed ended as a resuEt of a transition into the GoEitiAaE GroAess .GJ A!"the #tu$' that e+ie%e$ ,0 c"!&lict# i! the 8e i"$ & "( 1DD0 t" 200B, c"!clu$e# that "!l' B.3 8e ce!t "& the( e!$e$ i! a (ilita ' +ict" ' a!$ !"t al%a'# &" 4"+e !(e!t &" ce#.3 Thu#, i! the l"!4 u!, a !u(7e "& i!#u 4e!cie# ha+e e!$e$ th "u4h a !e4"tiate$ #ettle(e!t.

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC A foAus on terrorism onEB FiEE giDe the United States the distanAe from the ,arIai goDernment neAessarB to suGGort good goDernanAe at the EoAaE EeDeE! $oBEe 6 01"1
[Michael J., Lectu e i! I!te !ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#ea ch Fell"% at the Ce!t e &" the Stu$' "& Te " i#( a!$ )"litical *i"le!ce at the U!i+e #it' "& St A!$ e%#, I!te !ati"!al A&&ai # ,-. 2 /20100 1112131 D" c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' 4" t"4ethe 56 Acc" $i!4l', it i# !"% e##e!tial &" the US t" thi!A a7"ut %a'# t" (a!a4e the#e t a$e"&&# e&&ecti+el', #" that the CT a!$ COIN (i##i"!# ei!&" ce each "the F# e&&ect#. Th ee i(8" ta!t #te8# ca! 7e i$e!ti&ie$. Fi #t, the US needs to restriAt

the numCer of GotentiaE targets of Aommando raids and drone striHes5 and to tighten the ruEes of engagement to GreDent AiDiEian AasuaEties and reduAe the risH of GuCEiA CaAHEash! ForAe shouEd Ce used sGaringEB, e#8eciall' i! )aAi#ta!, a!$ $i ecte$ "!l' at !et%" A# $i ectl' "8e ati!4 %ith Al:;ae$a a!$ the A&4ha!
Tale7a!. The#e #t iAe# #h"ul$ !"t 7e e9te!$e$ t" "the I#la(i#t !et%" A# %h"#e #u88" t &" " li!A# %ith Al:;ae$a a!$ the Tale7a! (i4ht 7e i!ci$e!tal. The US must Ce mindfuE that the Eong7term GoEitiAaE Aosts of emGEoBing these striHes against miEitant netForHs i! )aAi#ta! maB outFeigh the taAtiAaE Cenefits "& $"i!4 #".D1 Sec"!$, a# ) e#i$e!t O7a(a ha# ec"4!i<e$, the US needs to GreserDe its EeDerage oDer the goDernments of Afghanistan a!$ )aAi#ta! CB exGEiAitEB maHing aid5 and the AontriCution of trooGs5 deGendent on reform5 the end of AorruGtion and imGroDements in seEf7GoEiAing AaGaAitB! Thi $, the US needs to Eimit its foAus in Afghanistan to the GroCEem of DioEenAe?that i#, $e#t "'i!4 Al:;ae$a a!$ e+e #i!4 the ("(e!tu( "& the Tale7a!?and t" Gut some distanAe CetFeen itseEf and the ,arIai goDernment. Rathe tha! t 'i!4 t" e!ha!ce the le4iti(ac' "& the >a <ai 4"+e !(e!t, it shouEd foAus its energies on suGGorting good

goDernanAe at the EoAaE and triCaE EeDeE and on ensuring that the EoAaE deEiDerB of seAuritB5 NustiAe and GuCEiA serDiAes suffers Eess from AorruGtion.D2 SuAh a Cottom7uG aGGroaAh FouEd see the Afghan state e(ai!i!4 a 8atch%" A "& te it" ie# u! 7' l"cal %a l" $# a!$ #t "!4(e! %ith i!$i ect li!A# t" the ce!t al 4"+e !(e!t i! >a7ul. Thi# e!$:#tate i# ha $l' i!#8i i!4, 7ut it i# far more reaEistiA than assuming that it is GossiCEe to defeat an eDer7exGanding AirAEe of enemies FhiEe remaHing Afghanistan into a AentraEiIed modern state!

<

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC InstaCiEitB in Afghanistan sGiEEs oDer through CentraE Asia! )aE 6 19
[R"llie, Ra!$ C" 8" ati"!, KCe!t al A#ia a!$ It# A#ia! Nei4h7" #. Secu it' a!$ C"((e ce at the C "## "a$#,K %%. a!$." 4L8u7#L("!"4 a8h#L200-LRANDMMIJJ0.8$&6

)aAi#ta!F# elati"!# %ith Ce!t al A#ia #u&&e & "( li!4e i!4 (e(" ie# i! the e4i"! "& )aAi#ta!F# "le i! #u88" ti!4 the Tali7a! a!$ I#la(ic (ilita!c' i! 4e!e al. U<7eAi#ta!, Ta@iAi#ta!, a!$ >' 4'<#ta! all e(ai! #u#8ici"u# "& )aAi#ta!F# e4i"!al i!te!ti"!#, a!$ t a$e %ith )aAi#ta! ha# 7ee! %eaA a# a e#ult /8. 230. The e#ta7li#h(e!t "& the >a <ai 4"+e !(e!t i! >a7ul ha# 7ee! a 7l"% t" )aAi#ta!F# e4i"!al #ecu it' #t ate4'. Ehe ea# the Tali7a! e4i(e %"ul$ ha+e 7ee! & ie!$l' t" )aAi#ta!F# i!te e#t#, the cu e!t 4"+e !(e!t i# (" e "8e! t" tie# %ith I!$ia /8. 210. Alth"u4h )aAi#ta! i# ("+i!4 t" "+e c"(e it# e4i"!al e8utati"!, "7u#t c""8e ati"! %ill taAe ti(e a!$ e&&" t /8. 2-0. Afghanistan remains AritiAaE

to the future of CentraE Asia and its neighCors5 as instaCiEitB in Afghanistan has the GotentiaE to destaCiEiIe the region /88. 1D2200. A Gotent AomCination of drugs5 FeaGons5 and miEitants traDerse Afghanistan and Aross into CentraE Asia and CeBond. UICeHistan5 TaNiHistan5 and ,BrgBIstan fear that IsEamiA miEitants trained in Afghanistan maB sEiG CaAH aAross their Corders /8. 200. Iran remains aGGrehensiDe that hostiEe5 anti7Shia eEements maB taHe AontroE of Afghanistan5 Gutting Iranian seAuritB at risH /8. 120. And (aHistan and India Coth AomGete to ensure that the Afghan regime in GoFer is friendEB to their interests /88. 2-, 2D0. Alth"u4h the c"u!t ie# ac "## A#ia $" !"t a4 ee "! h"% t" #ecu e A&4ha!i#ta! a4ai!#t th eat#, unanimous agreement exists on the faAt that a staCEe Afghanistan is AritiAaE to thei "%! seAuritB interests. The U.S. 8 e#e!ce ha# le$ 7"th the Ce!t al A#ia! #tate# a!$ thei !ei4h7" # t"
8"!$e h"% l"!4 the U!ite$ State# 8la!# t" Aee8 t ""8# i! the e4i"!. U.S. i!te!ti"!# i! the e4i"! ha+e 7ee! i!te 8 ete$ i! +a i"u# %a'#. H"th Chi!a a!$ I a! a e a88 ehe!#i+e that U.S. (ilita ' 8 e#e!ce a!$ #ecu it' i!te e#t# i! the a ea ha+e the $ual 8u 8"#e "& c"!tai!(e!t /88. 1, D210, 11212, 1-0. C"!+e #el', A&4ha!i#ta! %"ul$ liAe t" #ee a c"!ti!ue$ #t "!4 "le &" the U!ite$ State# i! c"(7ati!4 (ilita!c' a!$ &"#te i!4 #ta7ilit' /8. 220, a!$ )aAi#ta! a!$ I!$ia #ee the 8"te!tial &" #ecu it' c""8e ati"! %ith the U!ite$ State# i! the e4i"! /88. 2B, 1J0. De#8ite the $i+e 4e!t 8e #8ecti+e# "& thei A#ia! !ei4h7" #,

the CentraE Asian states Aontinue to see a roEe for the United States in Gromoting staCiEitB in the region!

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC InstaCiEitB in CentraE Asia draFs in Russia5 Aausing nuAEear Far! $EanH 6 0111
[Ste8he! J., A##"ciate ) "&e##" "& S"+iet Stu$ie# at the Ce!te &" Ae "#8ace D"ct i!e, Re#ea ch, a!$ E$ucati"!, Ma9%ell Ai F" ce Ha#e, a!$ tau4ht at the U!i+e #it' "& Te9a#, Sa! A!t"!i", a!$ at the U!i+e #it' "& Cali&" !ia, Ri+e #i$e, )h.D. i! Hi#t" ' & "( the U!i+e #it' "& Chica4". The St ate4ic Stu$ie# I!#tituteN U.S. Milita ' E!4a4e(e!t Eith T a!#cauca#ia A!$ Ce!t al A#ia, %%%.#t ate4ic#tu$ie#i!#titute.a ('.(ilL8$&&ile#L8u7111.8$&6 I! 1DD1 M"#c"% e+e! th eate!e$ E" l$ Ea III t" $ete Tu Ai#h i!te +e!ti"! "! 7ehal& "& A<e 7ai@a!. Oet the !e% Ru##": A (e!ia! T eat' a!$ A<e i:Tu Ai#h t eat' #u44e#t that Ru##ia a!$ Tu Ae' c"ul$ 7e $ a44e$ i!t" a c"!& "!tati"! t" e#cue thei allie# & "( $e&eat.B2 Thu# manB of the Aonditions for AonDentionaE Far or GrotraAted ethniA AonfEiAt in FhiAh third Garties interDene are Gresent in the TransAauAasus. F" e9a(8le, manB Third 4orEd AonfEiAts generated CB EoAaE struAturaE faAtors haDe a great GotentiaE for unintended esAaEation . Hi4 8"%e # "&te! &eel "7li4e$ t" e#cue thei le##e 8 "te4e# a!$ 8 "9ie#. O!e " a!"the 7i4 8"%e (a' &ail t" 4 a#8 the "the #i$eF# #taAe# #i!ce i!te e#t# he e a e !"t a# clea a# i! Eu "8e. He!ce c"((it(e!t# i!+"l+i!4 the u#e "& !uclea %ea8"!# t" 8 e+e!t a clie!tF# $e&eat a e !"t a# %ell e#ta7li#he$ " a88a e!t. CEaritB aCout the nature of the threat AouEd

GreDent the Hind of raGid and aEmost unAontroEEed esAaEation Fe saF in "//# Fhen TurHish noises aCout interDening on CehaEf of AIerCaiNan Eed Russian Eeaders to threaten a nuAEear Far in that Aase.B1 ) eci#el' 7ecau#e Tu Ae' i# a NATO all', Russian nuAEear threats AouEd trigger a GotentiaE nuAEear CEoF /!"t a #(all 8"##i7ilit' 4i+e! the e atic !atu e "& Ru##iaF# $ecla e$ !uclea #t ate4ie#0. The reaE threat of a Russian nuAEear striHe against TurHeB to defend MosAoF8s interests and forAes in the TransAauAasus maHes the danger of maNor Far there higher than aEmost eDerBFhere eEse! A# Richa $ Hett# ha# "7#e +e$, The greatest danger Eies in areas Fhere /10 the GotentiaE for serious instaCiEitB is highN /20 Coth suGerGoFers GerAeiDe DitaE interestsN /10 neither reAogniIes that the other8s GerAeiDed interest or Aommitment is as great as its oFnN /J0 Coth haDe the AaGaCiEitB to inNeAt AonDentionaE forAes> and, /30 neither has FiEEing Groxies AaGaCEe of settEing the situation!BJ Russian GerAeGtions of the TransAasGian8s AritiAaEitB to its interests is tied to its Aontinuing efforts to GerGetuate and extend the Dast disGroGortion in GoFer it Gossesses reEatiDe to other CIS states .
Thi# 8"%e a!$ e#"u ce $i#8 "8" ti"! 7et%ee! Ru##ia a!$ the #(alle #tate# "& the T a!#ca#8ia! e4i"! (ea!# that !" !atu al e=uili7 iu( i# 8"##i7le the e. Ru##ia !eithe ca! 7e e#t ai!e$ !" %ill it acce8t e#t ai!t 7' a!' l"cal i!#tituti"! " 8"%e i! it# 8u #uit "& u!ilate al a$+a!ta4e a!$ ei!te4 ati"!.B3

"1

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC And Afghanistan staCiEitB is HeB to MiddEe East staCiEitB CeAause it is the EBnAhGin in the 4ar on Terror! )ieDen 6 011[A!at"l, Se!i" Re#ea ch Fell"% %ith the Ne% A(e ica F"u!$ati"!, Mi$$le Ea#t )"lic' C"u!cil, F" t':#e+e!th i! the Ca8it"l Hill C"!&e e!ce Se ie# "! U.S. Mi$$le Ea#t )"lic', S8 i!4, htt8.LL%%%.(e8c." 4L&" u(#Mchc#LJB.ht(l6 S" l""Ai!4 at the i!e+ita7le c"!#e=ue!ce# "& A(e ica! %ith$ a%al, the #ituati"! a&te A(e ica $"e# %ith$ a%, %hat #h"ul$ %e 7e c"!ce !e$ %ith ("#t c iticall'5 Eell, the &i #t i# #"(ethi!4 %hich i# t"" "&te! !"t talAe$ a7"ut i! the c"!te9t "& the Mi$$le Ea#t, a!$ that i# "& c"u #e A&4ha!i#ta!. De &act" $e&eat i! I a= %ill 7e 7a$ e!"u4h. De faAto defeat in

Afghanistan FouEd Ce a AatastroGhiA humiEiation for the United States5 and FouEd in effeAt marH defeat in the Far on terror as a FhoEe. N"% 7' $e&eat i! A&4ha!i#ta! I $"!Gt (ea! that the Tali7a! ca! actuall' cha#e u# "ut liAe *iet!a( i! GB3. Hut that %e al#" 4et i!t" a #ituati"! Fhere AmeriAa, a!$ H itai! &" that (atte , a!$ %h"e+e e(ai!# the e, %hich %"!Gt 7e +e ' (a!' allie#, I thi!A, are suffering a AontinuaE stream of heaDB AasuaEties Fith no GrosGeAt of aAtuaEEB Areating a suAAessfuE5 haEfFaB suAAessfuE and staCEe Afghan state. N"% thi# &it# i!t" the Mi$$le Ea#t !"t @u#t 7ecau#e A(e ica! #t ate4' a# a %h"le i! the %a "! te " , 7ut al#" 7ecau#e
I a! i# a7#"lutel' c itical t" the #ta7ili<ati"!, the $e+el"8(e!t "& A&4ha!i#ta!. A!$ !"t @u#t that, 7ut i& i! the &utu e %e e+e &ace the #ituati"! i! %hich %e a e 4"i!4 t" %ith$ a% & "( A&4ha!i#ta! a# %ell, %ell the!, %e 4" 7acA t" the #ituati"! 7e&" e DL11 i! %hich I a! a!$ Ru##ia %e e c itical t" Aee8i!4 the N" the ! Allia!ce 4"i!4 a4ai!#t the 8 "#8ect "& the Tali7a! c"!=ue i!4 the %h"le c"u!t '.

""

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC Another Far in the MiddEe East FiEE go nuAEear! SteinCaAh 6 0110
[J"h!, DC I a= C"aliti"!, Ce!t e &" Re#ea ch "! Il"7ali<ati"! /CRI0, 4l"7al e#ea ch.caN I# aeli Eea8"!# "& Ma## De#t ucti"!. a Th eat t" )eace, Ma ch, htt8.LL%%%.%a4i!48eace." 4La ticle#L2002L01L00M#tei!7achMi# aeli:%($.ht(6 Se'("u He #h %a !#, KShouEd Far CreaH out in the MiddEe East a4ai!,... " #h"ul$ a!' A a7 !ati"! &i e (i##ile# a4ai!#t I# ael, a# the I a=i# $i$, a nuAEear esAaEation, "!ce u!thi!Aa7le e9ce8t a# a la#t e#" t, FouEd noF Ce a strong GroCaCiEitB.K/J10 a!$ E<a Eei##(a!, I# aelG# cu e!t ) e#i$e!t #ai$ KThe nuAEear issue is gaining momentum ?and the@ next Far FiEE not Ce AonDentionaE.K/J20 Ru##ia a!$ 7e&" e it the S"+iet U!i"! ha# l"!4 7ee! a (a@" /i& !"t the (a@" 0 ta 4et "& I# aeli !uAe#. It i# %i$el' e8" te$ that the 8 i!ci8al 8u 8"#e "& J"!atha! )"lla $G# #8'i!4 &" I# ael %a# t" &u !i#h #atellite i(a4e# "& S"+iet ta 4et# a!$ "the #u8e #e!#iti+e $ata elati!4 t" U.S. !uclea ta 4eti!4 #t ate4'. /J10 /Si!ce lau!chi!4 it# "%! #atellite i! 1D,,, I# ael !" l"!4e !ee$# U.S. #8' #ec et#.0 IsraeEi nuHes

aimed at the Russian heartEand seriousEB AomGEiAate disarmament and arms AontroE negotiations and5 at the DerB Eeast5 the uniEateraE Gossession of nuAEear FeaGons CB IsraeE is enormousEB destaCiEiIing5 and dramatiAaEEB EoFers the threshoEd for their aAtuaE use5 if not for aEE out nuAEear Far. I! the %" $# "& Ma A Ia&&!e', K... if the famiEar Gattern/I# ael e&i!i!4 it# %ea8"!# "& (a## $e#t ucti"! %ith U.S. c"(8licit'@ is not reDersed soon : &" %hate+e ea#"! : the deeGening MiddEe East AonfEiAt AouEd trigger a ForEd AonfEagration!K /JJ0

"0

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC AD%ANTAGE II& (aHistan The Aurrent Aounter7insurgenAB strategB in Afghanistan is resGonsiCEe for the massiDe inArease in drone attaAHs in (aHistan $oBEe 6 01"1
[Michael J., Lectu e i! I!te !ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#ea ch Fell"% at the Ce!t e &" the Stu$' "& Te " i#( a!$ )"litical *i"le!ce at the U!i+e #it' "& St A!$ e%#, I!te !ati"!al A&&ai # ,-. 2 /20100 1112131 D" c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' 4" t"4ethe 56

the aGGEiAation of EethaE forAe tends to exGand oDer time from Aounterterrorism targets to ones assoAiated Fith the AounterinsurgenAB effort. Such a!
A #ec"!$, a!$ elate$, 8 "7le( i# that the ta 4et #et &" e98a!#i"! i# "&te! @u#ti&ie$ "! the 4 "u!$# that (ilita!t !et%" A# i! the i!#u 4e!c' "8e ate i! ta!$e( %ith, " "the %i#e #u88" t, a te " i#t " 4a!i<ati"! a!$ +ice +e #a. H"%e+e , the e98a!#i"! "& the ta 4et #et 8 "$uce# a a!4e "& $i ect a!$ i!$i ect "&&#etti!4 c"#t# t" the c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' (i##i"! 7' i!c ea#i!4 the a!A# "& "!eF# e!e(ie# a!$ 7' eali4!i!4 e9i#ti!4 (ilita!t !et%" A# a4ai!#t the &" ei4! 8"%e .

The effeAts of this Kmission AreeG8 Aan Ce seen Fith Aommando raids and the use of (redator drones in (aHistan. The#e %e e " i4i!all' u#e$ #8a i!4l' a!$ "!l' a4ai!#t Al:;ae$a "8e ati+e#N the! the US 4 a$uall' 7 "a$e!e$ it# ta 4et #et t" i!clu$e #e!i" Tale7a! "&&icial# i! A&4ha!i#ta!.-1 H' 200D, aFare that high7ranHing TaEeCan Fere oGerating freeEB aAross the Corder in (aHistan5 the US exGanded Aommando raids into its triCaE regions.-J At lea#t &"u ai$# %e e c"!$ucte$, t%" "& %hich %e e $i ecte$ a4ai!#t #":calle$ Phi4h:+alue ta 4et#F !ea the 7" $e . Si(ila l', in 011< the US exGanded the target Eist for (redator drone striHes to inAEude TaEeCan offiAiaEs and reEated hostiEe IsEamist netForHs /#uch a# the Ha==a!i !et%" A0 oGerating aAross the (aHistani Corder. I! #u((e 200D, c"!ce !e$ "+e 4 "%i!4 th eat# t" the #ta7ilit' "& )aAi#ta!, the US
7e4a! t" $i ect #t iAe# a4ai!#t &acti"!# "& the Teh iA:i:Tale7a! i! )aAi#ta! /TT)0 a!$ e+e!tuall' Aille$ it# lea$e , Haitullah Meh#u$.-3 F "( 200B t" 200D, the Ahange in the numCer of striHes and the target set has Ceen dramatiA. Acc" $i!4 t" a! a!al'#i# 7' )ete He 4e! a!$ >athe i!e Tie$(a!!, in 011- the US EaunAhed onEB fiDe drone striHes, th ee a4ai!#t Tale7a! ta 4et# a!$ t%" a4ai!#t Al:;ae$a. H' c"!t a#t, in the first ten months of 011/ it EaunAhed *# striHes against a DarietB of targets, i!clu$i!4 1, a4ai!#t the Tale7a!, 1- a4ai!#t Haitullah Meh#u$, #e+e! a4ai!#t Al:;ae$a a!$ &"u a4ai!#t the Ha==a!i !et%" A.-- Under the OCama administration5 the numCer of (redator striHes and the diDersifiAation of the targets has aAtuaEEB inAreased.-B

"#

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC And these attaAHs haDe strengthened radiAaE eEements in the (aHistan miEitarB! $oBEe 6 01"1
[Michael J., Lectu e i! I!te !ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#ea ch Fell"% at the Ce!t e &" the Stu$' "& Te " i#( a!$ )"litical *i"le!ce at the U!i+e #it' "& St A!$ e%#, I!te !ati"!al A&&ai # ,-. 2 /20100 1112131 D" c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' 4" t"4ethe 56

The exGansion of raids and striHes in (aHistan has added to the ranHs of the enemies that the US is noF fighting. I! $"i!4 #", it ha# tu !e$ the US i!t" a 8a t' t" the c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' e&&" t i! )aAi#ta!, a# the 7u eauc atic $e#i4!a:
ti"! PA&)aAF ec"4!i<e#. Hut #uch i!+"l+e(e!t ha# $i ect a!$ i!$i ect c"#t# t" the c"u!te te " i#( e&&" t. The $i ect c"#t 7ec"(e# a88a e!t %he! Al:;ae$a a!$ )aAi#ta!i (ilita!t !et%" A# ta 4et US c"u!te te " i#( a##et#, a# "ccu e$ "! 10 Dece(7e 200D %he! the J" $a!ia! >halil A7u:Mulal al:Hala%i 7le% hi(#el& u8 at a (eeti!4 %ith CIA a4e!t# i! A&4ha!i#ta!, Ailli!4 #e+e! A(e ica! a!$ "!e J" $a!ia! i!telli4e!ce "&&icial#. Thi# attacA %a# &acilitate$ 7' HaAi(ullah Meh#u$, %h" $ecla e$ that the attacA %a# P e+e!4eF &" the Ailli!4 "& Haitullah Meh#u$ i! a ) e$at" $ "!e #t iAe.,0 Thi# attacA %a# 8a ticula l' c"#tl' &" the CIA, %hich l"#t #e!i" "8e ati+e# %ith the hi4hl' #8eciali#t #Aill# !ee$e$ t" 8u #ue hi4h: a!Ai!4 Al:;ae$a (e(7e #.,1 The i!$i ect c"#t# a e !u(e "u#. It i# ha $ t" (ea#u e %hat the US l"#e# & "( the #t iAe#, 7ut it i# "7+i"u# that it 4ai!# !" i!telli4e!ce & "( $ea$ /a# "88"#e$ t" ca8tu e$0 "8e ati+e#. It al#" l"#e# the (" al hi4h 4 "u!$ i& the #t iAe# acci$e!tall' Aill hi4h !u(7e # "& ci+ilia!#. Hut 8e ha8# the greatest i!$i ect Aost is its AontriCution to instaCiEitB in (aHistan. The Gressure GEaAed on AE7;aeda a!$ it# a&&iliate# has aAAeEerated the Arisis faAing the (aHistani goDernment and enAouraged EoAaE miEitant netForHs /i!clu$i!4 eth!ic #e8a ati#t a!$ t i7al 4 "u8#0 to form taAtiAaE and ideoEogiAaE aEEianAes Fith AE7;aeda, thu# magnifBing the threat theB Gose. As a resuEt5 the US is noF stumCEing into a Far aAross South Asia Fith a

groFing numCer of miEitant IsEamist netForHs5 manB of Fhom haDe strong famiEiaE and triCaE ties Fith the EoAaE GoGuEation and stronger regeneratiDe AaGaCiEities than AE7;aeda . The AreeGing exGansion of the target set has transformed a set of taAtiAs " i4i!all' e#e +e$ &" c"u!te te " i#( "8e ati"!# i!t" a t""l &" &i4hti!4 a! e+e :%i$e!i!4 ci cle "& i!#u 4e!t# i! )aAi#ta!. The $ile((a i# that, %hile the c"u!te te " i#( 7e!e&it# "& the#e "8e ati"!# a e clea , i! adding to the ranHs of its enemies the US noF faAes a more duraCEe netForH of miEitants that FiEE fueE the TaEeCan8s insurgenAB against the United States5 (aHistan and the ,arIai goDernment!

"*

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC The inArease of trooGs on the ground undermines (aHistan8s oFn AamGaigns against the (aHistan TaEiCan. 3aidi 6 01"1
[S'e$ Ma!<a A77a# Lectu e , )"lici!4 a!$ C i(i!al I!+e#ti4ati"!, U!i+e #it' "& Ce!t al La!ca#hi e, A#ia! )"litic# Q )"lic' *"lu(e 2, I##ue 2, )a4e# 23B:2BB Ne4"tiati"!# a!$ the A!ti:Tali7a! C"u!te i!#u 4e!c' i! )aAi#ta!6

The situation in (aHistan is DoEatiEe enough Fithout Ceing OnudgedO CB a U!S! territoriaE intrusion in (aHistan> this FouEd onEB Eead to an Afghanistan7 and IraJ7stBEe state imGEosion, aEEoFing the IsEamists eDen greater GredominanAe in (aHistani GoEitiAs. The faEEaAB inherent on reEBing uGon a GureEB miEitarB strategB has Ceen an unmitigated disaster in !ei4h7" i!4 Afghanistan. He#i$e# Aausing a huge numCer of AiDiEian AasuaEties, it has al#" AontriCuted to the GoEitiAaE strengthening of the TaEiCan 7' maHing them aGGear EiHe freedom fighters taHing on a AoEoniaE forAe. A GureEB miEitarB soEution FiEE a4ai! CaAHfireN I#la(i#t 8 "8a4a!$a %"ul$ the! ca ' the 8"%e &" a! e+e! 4 eate tactic #ti(ulu# "& (ilita!t# & "( all "+e the %" l$, exaAerCating an aEreadB graDe situation. It ha# t" 7e acA!"%le$4e$ that )aAi#ta! i# #et t" #ee a COIN ca(8ai4! that %ill e9te!$ "+e a &e% 'ea # at lea#t t" 8a' ta!4i7le $i+i$e!$#. AnB efforts to Ofast7 traAHO this AamGaign CB Gutting foreign Coots on the ground FiEE onEB aggraDate the miEitanAB . F" 7ette " %" #e, the (aHistani armB is the onEB DiaCEe oGtion to sGearhead the COIN AamGaigns , a!$
c"!ti!u"u# e&&" t# 7' the i!te !ati"!al 8"lit' ha+e t" 7e $i ecte$ t" et ai!, e=ui8, a!$ 7acA u8 thi# e!tit' &" a 8 "t acte$ a!ti4ue illa ca(8ai4!. )aAi#ta!G# Tali7a! i(8e ati+e ha# 7ee! (a Ae$ 7' a lai##e<:&ai e attitu$e t"%a $ the(N i!$eci#i+e!e## a!$ i!acti"! "! the 8a t "& the #tate t" tacAle a &e#te i!4 i!#u 4e!c' all"%e$ it t" 7l"##"( i!t" a %i$e#8 ea$ ("+e(e!t. The %i$el' 8 e+ale!t 7elie& i! 8"lic' ci cle# that the Tali7a! %"ul$ c"!ti!ue c"!ce!t ati!4 "! &" ei4! t ""8# i! A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ e!ci cli!4 the >a7ul e4i(e i!culcate$ a #e!#e "& c"(8lace!c', %hich !"% ha# t" 7e #haAe! "&&. It (u#t al#" 7e e(e(7e e$ that a# a (' "8e ati"!# e#calate i! i!te!#it', the Tali7a!2al:;ae$a !e9u# %ill 7e ha $ at %" A t" chalA "ut a c"u #e "& &u the te " i#t tactic# ac "## )aAi#ta!N thi# ha# the 8"te!tial "& "8e!i!4 (ulti8le & "!t# &" the #tate &" ce#, &" %hich a COIN e4i(e #h"ul$ ha+e a$e=uate K7u&&e K l"4i#tical 7acAu8.

"+

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC The destaCiEiIation of (aHistan CB radiAaEs resuEts in nuAEear Far! Morgan 6 011[Ste8he! J., &" (e (e(7e "& the H iti#h La7"u )a t' E9ecuti+e C"((ittee, RHette A!"the Tali7a! A&4ha!i#ta!, tha! a Tali7a! NUCLEAR )aAi#ta!S5T,htt8.LLe<i!ea ticle#.c"(L5Hette :A!"the :Tali7a!:A&4ha!i#ta!,:tha!:a:Tali7a!:NUCLEAR: )aAi#ta!5Qi$UJB3,0,6

FundamentaEism is deeGEB rooted in (aHistan soAietB. The &act that i! the 'ea &"ll"%i!4 DL11, the ("#t 8"8ula !a(e 4i+e! t" (ale chil$ e! 7" ! that 'ea %a# KO#a(aK /!"t a )aAi#ta!i !a(e0 i# a #(all i!$icati"! "& the (""$. GiDen the FeaHening Case of the traditionaE, seAuEar oGGosition Garties, Aonditions FouEd Ce riGe for a AouG dMPtat CB the fundamentaEist Fing of the ArmB a!$ ISI, lea!i!4 "! the a$icali#e$ (a##e# t" taAe 8"%e .
S"(e &" ( "& a$ical, (ilita ' I#la(ic e4i(e, %he e le4al 8"%e # %"ul$ #hi&t t" I#la(ic c"u t# a!$ &" (# "& #hi a la% %"ul$ 7e liAel'. Alth"u4h, e+e! the!, thi# (i4ht !"t taAe 8lace "ut#i$e "& a 8 "t acte$ c i#i# "& u8hea+al a!$ ci+il %a c"!$iti"!#, (i9i!4 &u!$a(e!tali#t ("+e(e!t# %ith !ati"!ali#t u8 i#i!4# a!$ #ecta ia! +i"le!ce 7et%ee! the Su!!i a!$ (i!" it' Shia 8"8ulati"!#. The nightmare that is noF IraJ FouEd taHe on gothiA GroGortions aAross the Aontinent . The 8 "8he#' "& a! a c "& ci+il %a "+e Le7a!"!, )ale#ti!e a!$ I a= %"ul$ #8 ea$ t" #"uth A#ia, #t etchi!4 & "( )aAi#ta! t" )ale#ti!e, th "u4h A&4ha!i#ta! i!t" I a= a!$ u8 t" the Me$ite a!ea! c"a#t.

UndouCtedEB5 this FouEd aEso sGiEE oDer into India Coth Fith regards to the MusEim AommunitB and ,ashmir. $order AEashes5 terrorist attaAHs5 seAtarian Gogroms and insurgenAB FouEd CreaH out. A neF Far, a!$ 8"##i7l' nuAEear Far, 7et%ee! )aAi#ta! a!$ I!$ia c"ul$ !"t 7e ule$ "ut.
At"(ic Al ;ae$a Sh"ul$ )aAi#ta! 7 eaA $"%! c"(8letel', a Tali7a!:#t'le 4"+e !(e!t %ith #t "!4 Al ;ae$a i!&lue!ce i# a eal 8"##i7ilit'. SuAh deeG Ahaos FouEd, "& c"u #e, oGen a O(andoraMs CoxO for the region and the ForEd. 4ith the 8"##i7ilit' "& u!#ta7le cle ical a!$ miEitarB fundamentaEist ele(e!t# Ceing in AontroE of the (aHistan nuAEear arsenaE, not onEB their use a4ai!#t I!$ia, 7ut I# ael 7ec"(e# a 8"##i7ilit', as FeEE as the aAJuisition of nuAEear

and other deadEB FeaGons seArets CB AE ;aeda!

I!+a$i!4 )aAi#ta! %"ul$ !"t 7e a! "8ti"! &" A(e ica. The e&" e a nuAEear Far FouEd !"% a4ai! CeAome a reaE strategiA GossiCiEitB. This FouEd Cring a shift in the teAtoniA GEates of gEoCaE reEations. It AouEd usher in a neF CoEd 4ar Fith China and Russia Gitted against the US. Ehat i# at #taAe i! Kthe hal&:&" 4"tte! %a K i! A&4ha!i#ta! i# &a 4 eate tha! that i! I a=. Hut A(e icaG# ca8acitie# &" c"!t "lli!4 the #ituati"! a e e9t e(el' e#t icte$. Mi4ht it 7e, i! the e!$, the' a e al#" &" ce$ t" acce8t ) e#i$e!t Mu#ha a&G# u!#8"Ae! #l"4a! "& O$etter another TaEiCan Afghanistan5 than a TaEiCan NUC)EAR (aHistanQO

"9

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC O$SER%ATION II& SoEDenAB ACandoning the CounterinsurgenAB mission in Afghanistan FiEE aEEoF FithdraF of maNor AmeriAan units5 suAAessfuEEB isoEate the ,arIai regime5 and aEEoF for CuiEding a more staCEe7 deAentraEiIed Afghanistan! 4est 6 01"1
[Hi!4, a##i#ta!t #ec eta ' "& $e&e!#e i! the Rea4a! a$(i!i#t ati"!, e8" te$ "! the A&4ha! %a #i!ce 2001. H"% t" Sa+e A&4ha!i#ta! F "( >a <ai, Ne% O" A Ti(e#. A8 il -, htt8.LL%%%.!'ti(e#.c"(L2010L0JL0BL"8i!i"!L0B%e#t.ht(l 6

The GroCEem Fith CuiEding a neF and Cetter Afghanistan is that, a7"+e the l"cal le+el, ) e#i$e!t >a <ai ha# l"!4 hel$ the le+e # "& 8"litical 8"%e 7' c"!t "lli!4 8 "+i!cial &i!a!ce# a!$ lea$e #hi8 a88"i!t(e!t#, i!clu$i!4 th"#e "& 8"lice chie&#. Re4a $le## "& the c"aliti"!G# #ucce## at the $i#t ict le+el, a! "7$u ate a!$ e atic M ! ,arIai is an oCstaAEe to Grogress. The #ucce## i! Ma @a, h"%e+e , cha!4e$ the $'!a(ic# "& the c"!&lict. It !"% #ee(# that the 8la!!e$ #u 4e "& 10,000 a$$iti"!al t ""8# %ill liAel' achie+e 8 "4 e## i! GGclea i!4 a!$ h"l$i!4GG >a!$aha a!$ "the Tali7a!:c"!t "lle$ a ea# 7' (i$:2011. At that ti(e, the &" ce ati" %ill 7e "!e c"aliti"! #"l$ie &" e+e ' th ee A&4ha! #"l$ie # a!$ 8"lice(e!, a!$ the A&4ha! A (' %ill #till el' u8"! u# &" &i e8"%e a!$ (" al #u88" t. I$eall', %e c"ul$ the! 7e4i! t" %ith$ a% (a@" A(e ica! u!it# a!$ lea+e 7ehi!$ #(all ta#A &" ce# that c"(7i!e a$+i#" ' a!$ c"(7at $utie#, lea$i!4 t" a neF ratio of aCout one AmeriAan to "1 Afghans. N"t "!l' %"ul$ thi# 7 i!4 "u t ""8#
h"(e, 7ut it FouEd shift the resGonsiCiEitB for nation7CuiEding to Afghan forAes . At the #a(e ti(e, %e %"ul$ ha+e t" 8i+"t "u 8"lic' i! t%" %a'#. Fi #t, M . >a <ai #h"ul$ 7e t eate$ a# a #'(7"lic 8 e#i$e!t a!$ 4i+e! the " 4a!i<ati"!al GG(u#h ""( t eat(e!tGG :: that i#, Fe shouEd shut off the fEoFs of information and resourAes direAtEB to the nationaE

goDernment!
) e#i$e!t R"!al$ Rea4a! $i$ #"(ethi!4 #i(ila %ith a!"the e atic all', ) e#i$e!t Fe $i!a!$ Ma c"# "& the )hili88i!e#. I! Fe7 ua ' 1D,-, Rea4a! %a !e$ Ma c"# that i& 4"+e !(e!t t ""8# attacAe$ "88"#iti"! &" ce# h"le$ u8 "! the "ut#Ai t# "& Ma!ila, it %"ul$ cau#e GGu!t"l$ $a(a4eGG t" hi# elati"!# %ith the U!ite$ State# :: (ea!i!4 the ai$ #8i4"t %"ul$ 7e tu !e$ "&&. Ehe! hi# c"u!t '(e! #a% that he %a# #t i88e$ "& 8 e#ti4e a!$ #u88" t, the' &" ce$ Ma c"# i!t" e9ile. Sec"!$, the c"aliti"! (u#t i!#i#t that the A&4ha! (ilita ' 8la' a 8 i(a ' "le i! the 4"+e !a!ce "& the $i#t ict# a!$ 8 "+i!ce#, i!clu$i!4 i! the all"cati"! "& ai$ a!$ the #u8e +i#i"! "& the 8"lice. 4e shouEd ForH direAtEB Fith those EoAaE and GroDinAiaE

Eeaders Fho FiEE aAt resGonsiCEB5 and Aut off those Fho are GuGGets of ,aCuE.
Thi# i# ha88e!i!4, t" #"(e e9te!t, i! Hel(a!$ ) "+i!ce, #ite "& the Ma @a 7attle, %he e the c"aliti"! ha# i!$e8e!$e!t c"!t "l "+e C300 (illi"! i! ec"!#t ucti"! ai$ a!$ #ala ie#. Ee ha+e 7ee! &" tu!ate that the 8 "+i!cial 4"+e !" , Iula7 Ma!4al, %hile a >a <ai a88"i!tee, ha# 8 "+e$ a! i!!"+ati+e 8a t!e . Hut i! a!' ca#e, %e A!"% that AoaEition aid need not fEoF through ,aCuE! Ie!. Sta!le' McCh '#tal, the hea$ "& Ce!t al C"((a!$, al ea$' #ee(# t" 7e c"!#i$e i!4 thi# a88 "ach a# the 7attle &" >a!$aha 4ai!# i!te!#it'. GGO!e "& the thi!4# %eGll 7e $"i!4 i! the #ha8i!4 i# %" Ai!4 %ith 8"litical lea$e # t" t ' t" 4et a! "utc"(e that (aAe# #e!#eGG i!clu$i!4 GG8a t!e i!4 i!#i$e the cit' %ith the A&4ha! Nati"!al )"lice,GG he t"l$ e8" te # la#t ("!th. Alth"u4h i#"lati!4 M . >a <ai %ill #t iAe (a!' a# a 4ia!t #te8 7acA%a $, the t uth i# that %e $"!Gt ha+e a $ut' t" i(8"#e $e("c ac' "! A&4ha!i#ta!. The a$+a!ce(e!t "& li7e t' $"e#!Gt !ece##itate a GG"!e 8e #"!, "!e +"teGG #'#te(, a# the 1.3 (illi"! & au$ule!t +"te# ca#t &" M . >a <ai i! la#t #u((e G# #ha( electi"! #h"%e$. Ee ca!!"t 8 "+i$e $e("c ac' i& %e $e#i e it (" e tha! the A&4ha!#. The (hiEiGGines :: and South ,orea a# %ell :: eDoEDed into thriDing demoAraAies at thei "%! 8ace, %ell

after AmeriAan aid heEGed t" Ceat CaAH the miEitarB threats &aci!4 the(. It %a# enough to GreDent the Communist taHeoDers and EeaDe Cehind goDernments AontroEEed in the CaAHground CB a strong miEitarB. Ee $i$!Gt #8e!$ te!# "& 7illi"!# "& $"lla # "! (ate ial 8 "@ect# t" i!culcate $e("c atic 8 i!ci8le#. Si(ila l', a diminished Ha(i$ ,arIai Aan Ce Eeft to run a sEoGGB goDernment, Fith a GoFerfuE5 AmeriAan7finanAed Afghan miEitarB insuring that the TaEiCan do not taHe oDer!
A$(itte$l', thi# i#A# the e(e 4e!ce "& the )aAi#ta! ("$el i! A&4ha!i#ta! :: a! a (' that ha# a c"u!t ' athe tha! a c"u!t ' that ha# a! a ('. Hut %e a e !"t "7li4e$ t" 7uil$ a $e("c atic !ati"! u!$e a &ecAle## lea$e . Ee !ee$ t" $e&e!$ "u i!te e#t#, a!$ lea+e the !ati"!: 7uil$i!4 t" the A&4ha!# the(#el+e#.

"-

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC A Aounter7terrorism strategB in Afghanistan FouEd onEB reJuire 015111 trooGs5 a reduAtion of -15111 from Aurrent trooG EeDeEs! SteFart 6 011/
[R" ', #e +e$ 7 ie&l' a# a! "&&ice i! the H iti#h A (' /the HlacA Eatch0, I! 2001, he 7eca(e the c"aliti"! De8ut' I"+e !" "& Ma'#a! a!$ Dhi ;a :: t%" 8 "+i!ce# i! the Ma #h A a7 e4i"! "& S"uthe ! I a=. L"!$"! Re+ie% "& H""A# *"l. 11 N". 11 V D Jul' 200D The I e#i#ti7le Illu#i"! htt8.LL%%%.l 7.c".uAL+11L!11L " ':#te%a tLthe:i e#i#ti7le:illu#i"!0 A&te #e+e! 'ea # "& e&i!e(e!t, the 8"lic' #ee(# #" 7u"'e$ 7' illu#i"!#, caulAe$ i! a(7i4u"u# la!4ua4e a!$ e!c u#te$ %ith (" al clai(#, a!al"4ie# a!$ 8"litical the" ie# that it ca! #ee( &utile t" 8 e#e!t a! alte !ati+e. It i# 8a ticula l' $i&&icult t" a 4ue !"t &" a t"tal %ith$ a%al 7ut &" a (" e cauti"u# a88 "ach. The Cest Afghan GoEiAB FouEd Ce to reduAe the numCer of foreign trooGs from the Aurrent EeDeE of /15111 to &a &e%e 2 8e ha8# 015111. I! that ca#e, tFo distinAt oCNeAtiDes FouEd remain &" the i!te !ati"!al c"((u!it'& deDeEoGment and Aounter7terrorism. Neithe %"ul$ a("u!t t" the 7uil$i!4 "& a! A&4ha! #tate. I& the Ee#t 7elie+e$ it e##e!tial t" e9clu$e al:;ai$a & "( A&4ha!i#ta!, the! the' c"ul$ $" it %ith #8ecial &" ce#. /The' ha+e $"!e it #ucce##&ull' #i!ce 2001 a!$ c"ul$ c"!ti!ue i!$e&i!itel', th"u4h the e#ult ha# "!l' 7ee! t" ("+e 7i! La$e! ac "## the 7" $e .0 At the #a(e ti(e the Ee#t #h"ul$ 8 "+i$e 4e!e "u# $e+el"8(e!t a##i#ta!ce 2 !"t "!l' t" Aee8 c"!#e!t &" the c"u!te :te " i#( "8e ati"!#, 7ut a# a! e!$ i! it#el&.

A reduAtion in trooG numCers and a turn aFaB from state7CuiEding shouEd not mean totaE FithdraFaE& good GroNeAts AouEd Aontinue to Ce undertaHen in eEeAtriAitB5 Fater5 irrigation5 heaEth5 eduAation5 agriAuEture5 ruraE deDeEoGment and in other areas &a+"u e$ 7' $e+el"8(e!t a4e!cie#. Ee #h"ul$
!"t c"!t "l a!$ ca!!"t 8 e$ict the &utu e "& A&4ha!i#ta!. It (a' i! the &utu e 7ec"(e (" e +i"le!t, " &i!$ a $ece!t ali#e$ e=uili7 iu( " a !e% !ati"!al u!it', 7ut i& it# c"((u!itie# c"!ti!ue t" %a!t t" %" A %ith u#, Fe Aan, "+e 10 'ea #,

enAourage the more GositiDe trends in Afghan soAietB and heEG to Aontain the more negatiDe!

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...GOOD GO%ERNANCE... 222,arIai Fants to negotiate Fith the TaEiCan5 Cut is inhiCited CB the US 6 FithdraFaE FouEd GromGt the TaEiCan to engage and signaE a go7ahead to ,arIai (orter 7 01"1
[Ia eth, i!+e#ti4ati+e hi#t" ia! a!$ @"u !ali#t #8eciali<i!4 i! US !ati"!al #ecu it' 8"lic'. The 8a8e 7acA e$iti"! "& hi# late#t 7""A, )e il# "& D"(i!a!ce. I(7ala!ce "& )"%e a!$ the R"a$ t" Ea i! *iet!a(, %a# 8u7li#he$ i! 200-, A#ia Ti(e# O!li!e, RUS, >a <ai S8lit O+e Tali7a! TalA#,T htt8.LL%%%.ati(e#.c"(Lati(e#LS"uthMA#iaLLH0JD&01.ht(l6 >AHUL : On

the surfaAe5 it FouEd seem unEiHeEB that A&4ha! ) e#i$e!t Ha(i$ ,arIai5 Fho Gresides oDer a GoEitiAaEEB feeCEe goDernment and is highEB deGendent on the United States miEitarB GresenAe and eAonomiA assistanAe5 FouEd defB the United States on the issue of GeaAe negotiations Fith the EeadershiG of the TaEiCan insurgenAB. $ut a Eong7simmering AonfEiAt CetFeen ,arIai and Ae' "&&icial# "& the Ha acA OCama a$(i!i#t ati"! "+e that i##ue Aame to a head at East FeeHMs )ondon AonferenAe5 Fhen the Afghan Gresident refused to heed US signaEs to CaAH off his GroGosaE to inDite the TaEiCan Eeaders to GartiAiGate in a nationFide GeaAe AonferenAe.
The 8eace !e4"tiati"!# i##ue i# e(7e$$e$ i! a $ee8e c"!&lict "+e US %a #t ate4', %hich ha# 8 "+"Ae$ 7 "a$ a!4e a!$ i!c ea#i!4 #u#8ici"!# "& US ("ti+e# a("!4 A&4ha!#, i!clu$i!4 >a <ai hi(#el&. The Aurrent sourAe of tension is ,arIaiMs GroGosaE , &i #t (a$e la#t N"+e(7e , to inDite TaEiCan Eeaders : i!clu$i!4 Mullah O(a : to a nationaE EoBa Nirga " 4 a!$ c"u!cil (eeti!4 ai(e$ at achie+i!4 a 8eace a4 ee(e!t. Sec eta ' "& State Hilla ' CEinton resGonded CB Gressing ,arIai to demand far7reaAhing AonAessions from the TaEiCan i! a$+a!ce "& the (eeti!4. Cli!t"!G# c"!$iti"!# "! Tali7a! 8a tici8ati"! i!clu$e$ e!u!ciati"! "& al: ;ae$a a!$ "& +i"le!ce a!$ acce8ta!ce "& the A&4ha! c"!#tituti"!, c"!$iti"!# that %"ul$ (aAe it i(8"##i7le &" lea$e # "& the i!#u 4e!c' t" a4 ee t" i& the' a e i!te 8 ete$ lite all'. O! N"+e(7e 21, Cli!t"! #ai$ the US ha$ Ku 4e$ cauti"! a!$ eal #ta!$a $# that a e e98ecte$ t" 7e (et 7' a!'"!e %h" i# e!4a4e$ i! the#e c"!+e #ati"!#, #" that %hate+e 8 "ce## the e i# ca! actuall' &u the the #ta7ilit' a!$ 8eace "& A&4ha!i#ta!, !"t u!$e (i!e itK. I!#tea$, >a <ai 8u7licl' a#Ae$ the US t" @"i! i! talA# %ith the Tali7a!. F"ll"%i!4 the i##ua!ce "& a #tate(e!t 7' Mullah O(a "! N"+e(7e 23 that i(8lie$ the Tali7a! %"ul$ !e4"tiate i& the' $i$ !"t ha+e t" 4i+e u8 thei $e(a!$ &" %ith$ a%al "& &" ei4! t ""8#, >a <ai #ai$ the e %a# a! Ku 4e!t !ee$K &" !e4"tiati"!# %ith the Tali7a!. In the faAe of Fhat he HneF Fas US hostiEitB to the idea5 ,arIai announAed "! Dece(7e 1, K(ersonaEEB5 I FouEd definiteEB taEH to MuEEah Omar . Ehate+e it taAe# t" 7 i!4 8eace t" A&4ha!i#ta! I, a# A&4ha! 8 e#i$e!t, %ill $" it.K

$ut he added5 OI am aEso aFare that it Aannot Ce done CB me aEone Fithout the CaAHing of the internationaE AommunitB.K That i# the 8h a#e >a <ai u#e# t" e&e t" the U!ite$ State# a!$ it# N" th Atla!tic T eat'
O 4a!i<ati"! /NATO0 allie#.

A feF daBs Eater5 ,arIai aGGeared to giDe FaB to US Gressure against unAonditionaE taEHs . He #ai$ he
%a!te$ t" !e4"tiate %ith Mullah O(a K8 "+i$e$ he e!"u!ce# +i"le!ce, 8 "+i$e$ all c"!!ecti"!# t" al:;ae$a a!$ t" te " i#t !et%" A# a e cut "&& a!$ $e!"u!ce$ a!$ e!"u!ce$K.

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222US GresenAe undermines ,arIai8s EegitimaAB Goodhand R Sedra 6 011[J"!atha! a!$ Ma A, U!i+e #it' "& L"!$"!, $e+el"8(e!t #tu$ie# lectu e AND H"!! Ce!te &" I!te !ati"!al C"!+e #i"! e#ea ch a##"ciate, Fe7 ua ', 200B, RH i7e# " Ha 4ai!#5 )eace C"!$iti"!alitie# a!$ G)"#t:C"!&lictG. Rec"!#t ucti"! i! A&4ha!i#ta!,T i!&" (a%" l$6

,arIai is not a free agent, and his room for manoeuDre has Ceen inSuenAed CB internationaE GoEiAies as FeEE as the domestiA AonsteEEation of GoEitiAaE forAes . Fi #t, a# Ru7i! a 4ue#, the e
H"%e+e , %a# !" (echa!i#( t" c"" $i!ate 8"litical (ea#u e# %ith the 7e!ch(a A# &" the #ecu it' a!$ #"ci":ec"!"(ic t a!#iti"!#. F "( the "ut#et, i!te !ati"!al 8"licie# i! the #ecu it' #8he e, !"ta7l' US Far AonditionaEities, undermined the sAoGe for ,arIai to marginaEiIe regionaE strongmen . The autonomB of US forAes and their EaAH of

aAAountaCiEitB to the Afghan authorities highEight the GerAeiDed FeaHness of the ,arIai regime5 undermining his EegitimaAB. A# A#t i Suh Ae !"te#, Fhen the ,arIai goDernment aGGears to Ce so deGendent on its aEEB and unaCEe to inSuenAe its CehaDiour5 GotentiaE suGGorters maB AaEAuEate that it is not safe to throF in their Eot Fith the neF administration! J1 Thi# ha# e#ulte$ i! the c"!ti!uati"!
"& Wui$ 8"litical a a!4e(e!t#, taAi!4 the &" ( "& P#8"t c"!t act#F " he$4i!4 athe tha! l"!4:te ( ai$:&" : 8eace 7a 4ai!#.

222US GresenAe guts ,arIai8s domestiA ArediCiEitB 6 trooGs are GerAeiDed as oDerstaBing their FeEAome
3ahir 6 011/ [Mi<4"!, !e%# a!al'#t, Ne% A(e ica Me$ia,12L1, RM" e T ""8# E"!Ft E!$ Ea i! A&4ha!i#ta!,T htt8.LL!e%#.!c("!li!e.c"(L!e%#L+ie%Ma ticle.ht(l5a ticleMi$Ue7D-2030&B$&&D&D&-111e1J&7c,B$0a6 RHa(i$ ,arIai and his AaCinet are seen as Festern stooges Fith no FiEEingness to GraAtiAe their faith,T #ai$ D . Na<i& Shah a!i, a 8 "&e##" "& Ce!t al A#ia! a!$ Mi$$le Ea#te ! Stu$ie# at I!$ia!a U!i+e #it'. R The

GeoGEe of Afghanistan do not see EoBaEtB and trust! TheB distrust ,arIai! TheB distrust AmeriAans!T
Shah a!i %a# c"((e!ti!4 7e&" e the A&4ha!i#ta! electi"!# that e#ulte$ i! >a <ai %i!!i!4 a!"the te (. Si!ce the!, #i(ila #e!ti(e!t# ech" th "u4h"ut c'7e #8ace "! #uch #ite# a# the Face7""A 8a4e# "& A&4ha! A(e ica!# a# %ell a# li+e A&4ha! #atellite tele+i#i"! 8 "4 a((i!4. RF a!Al', AmeriAans staBed too Eong in Afghanistan . The' %e e %elc"(e i! the 7e4i!!i!4 7ut the! the e %e e a l"t "& ca#ualtie# a!$ i!!"ce!t 8e"8le %e e $'i!4. N"% theB are not as FeEE EiHed! That8s FhB Afghans are EooHing to the TaEiCan again and theB are gaining momentum,T #ai$ "!e A&4ha! %h" %" A# at a! A(e ica!: 7a#e$ NIO "8e ati!4 i! A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ 8 e&e e$ t" 7e a!"!'("u#.

The AomCination of a disAredited Afghan goDernment and the feeEing that U!S! trooGs haDe oDerstaBed their FeEAome is formuEa for disaster in Afghanistan . Hut i& #e!$i!4 (" e t ""8# i!t"
A&4ha!i#ta! i# !"t the #"luti"!, %hat i#5 A! alte !ati+e that (i4ht %" A t" e!$ the A&4ha! %a i# t" $ece!t ali<e the A&4ha! 4"+e !(e!t, acc" $i!4 t" Shah a!i.

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222IndeGendent ,arIai HeB to ArediCiEitB RosenCerg R SGiegeE 6 01"1

[Matthe% Q )ete , #ta&& e8" te #, The Eall St eet J"u !al /2L1-L10, RU.S. Het# He#t All' i! Su 4e i# Ol$ O!e,T htt8.LL"!li!e.%#@.c"(La ticleLSH10001J2J032BJ,B0111300J3B30B13301D20,30D-.ht(l0

$B giDing Mr! ,arIai resGonsiCiEitB oDer HeB eEements of the AamGaign5 4estern offiAiaEs are hoGing he FiEE seiIe the CattEefieEd adDantage giDen to him CB the arriDaE of thousands of fresh AmeriAan trooGs and turn it into a AhanAe to re7estaCEish his goDernmentMsLand his oFnL ArediCiEitB! $esides Ceing giDen the East Ford on the MarNah offensiDe5 Mr! ,arIai has Ceen Criefed reGeatedEB on the CattEe GEans5 meeting freJuentEB Fith Ie!. MAChrBstaE and sGeaHing often Fith senior offiAiaEs from 4ashington, i!clu$i!4 Nati"!al Secu it' A$+i#e Ja(e# J"!e#, acc" $i!4 t" A&4ha! a!$ U.S. "&&icial#. K4e Fant to maHe him oFn this! 4hat Fe need is to maHe him into a 4inston ChurAhiEE Fho Aan raEEB his GeoGEe5O #ai$ "!e 8e #"! i!+"l+e$ i! the e&&" t. M . >a <ai, th "u4h #8"Ae#(e!, $ecli!e$ e8eate$ e=ue#t# &"
c"((e!t.

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...IM(ACT E TENSIONS... 222MiddEe East 4ar goes nuAEear& IsraeE striHe! GaffneB 6 011#
/Ma A, a e#ea che , % ite , 8"et, e!+i "!(e!tali#t, a!ti:!uclea acti+i#t REill I a! 7e !e9t5T Alte !ati+e#. Tu Ai#h J"u !al " &INte !ati"!al A&&ai #, Su((e *"l 2, %%%.alte !ati+e#@"u !al.!etL+"lu(e2L!u(7e 2L4a&&!e'.8$&0

It is DerB GossiCEe::#"(e %"ul$ #a' 8 "7a7le::that the U!S!5 8"##i7l' in AonNunAtion Fith IsraeE, FiEE EaunAh a TGreDentiDeU raid and destroB the $ushehr reaAtor Cefore it goes on Eine. Such a ai$ %"ul$ 7e &ate&ul &" the e4i"! a!$ the %" l$. It %"ul$ t i44e another Mideast Far, and GossiCEB a Aonfrontation Fith Russia, %ith e&&ect# that a e $i&&icult t" 8 e$ict. A Far Fith Iran might Cring aCout the AoEEaGse of the N(T5 Eead to a neF arms raAe5 and GEunge the ForEd into nuAEear Ahaos. SuAh a Arisis hoEds the GotentiaE to Cring the ForEd to the nuAEear CrinH! Thi# a ticle %ill e+ie% the 7acA4 "u!$, a!$ 8 "+i$e a! a!al'#i#. I %ill
$i#cu## the eact" at Hu#heh &i #t, the! the "the #u#8ect #ite

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222MiddEe East instaCiEitB Areates sanAtuaries for Terrorist and destroB the gEoCaE eAonomB! MonarAh 6 011/
[Lieute!a!t C"l"!el R"7e t M. /De!'i!4 Sa!ctua ', $tic.(ilLc4i:7i!LIetTRD"c5 L"cati"!UU2Q$"cUIetTRD"c.8$&QADUADAJDJ,016 A# !"te$, at staHe in 7"th I a= a!$ Afghanistan is the fate of Coth nations8 goDernments. I!#u 4e!cie# a e $ ai!i!4 thei !ati"!al t ea#u e# a!$ #a88i!4 the %ill "& the 8"8ulace t" e#i#t. F" the U!ite$ State# a!$ "u c"aliti"! 8a t!e #, the #taAe# a e e=uall' hi4h. A staCEe MiddEe East and unhindered trade are neAessarB for DitaE eAonomies Fithin the United States5 its aEEies5 and the MiddEe Eastern Aountries. Al#", the ForEd

Aannot afford for terrorists to onAe again estaCEish Cases in SouthFest Asian nations Fith sBmGathetiA regimes. Fi!all', defeating these insurgenAies FiEE sEoF the drain of our nationaE treasures5 Coth CEood and resourAes5 FhiEe GroDiding a groFth of Grestige amongst friends and foes aEiHe around the ForEd! To defeat the insurgenAies5 the sanAtuaries must Ce eEiminated! 222GEoCaE eAonomiA AoEEaGse risHs extinAtion ,erGen 6 011<
[)hil, Nati"!al Re+ie% O!li!e, Oct"7e 2D, 200,, D"!Gt Tu ! )a!ic I!t" De8 e##i"!, htt8.LL%%%.c7#!e%#.c"(L#t" ie#L200,L10L2DL"8i!i"!L(ai!J333,21.#ht(l6 ItF# i(8" ta!t that %e a+"i$ all the#e 8"lic' e " # : not @u#t for the saHe of our GrosGeritB, Cut for our surDiDaE. The Great DeGression, a&te all, didn8t end untiE the adDent of 4orEd 4ar II, the ("#t $e#t ucti+e %a i! the hi#t" ' "& the 8la!et. In a ForEd of nuAEear and CioEogiAaE FeaGons and non7state terrorist

organiIations that Creed on GoDertB and desGair5 another gEoCaE eAonomiA CreaHdoFn of suAh extended duration FouEd risH armed AonfEiAts on an eDen greater sAaEe.

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222Afghan instaCiEitB sGiEE oDer into Iran RhinefieEd 6 0119

[Je&& e' D., Lieute!a!t, U!ite$ State# Na+' H.S., JacA#"!+ille U!i+e #it'N IM)LICATIONS OF SOCIETAL FRAIMENTATION FOR STATE FORMATION. CAN DEMOCRACO SUCCEED IN AFIHANISTAN5N MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITO AFFAIRSN NA*AL )OSTIRADUATE SCHOOLN htt8.LL#ti!et.$tic.(ilLc4i: 7i!LIetTRD"c5ADUAJJ33-1QL"cati"!UU2Q$"cUIetTRD"c.8$&6 I! a$$iti"!, I a!F# Ae' i!te e#t i! A&4ha!i#ta! i# t" e9e t it# "%! i!&lue!ce "+e the %e#te ! 8a t "& that !ati"! a!$ t" 8 "tect the Shia (i!" it' 4 "u8# that li+e %ithi! the ce!t al e4i"! "& A&4ha!i#ta!.2J1 Acc" $i!4 t" )ei(a!i, the 8"##i7ilit' "& RinstaCiEitB, Ahaos, and AriminaE aAtiDities in Afghanistan AouEd sGiEE oDer into Iran FhiAh,

unsurGrisingEB has Aaused the Iranian goDernment to FatAh their Afghan neighCors AEoseEB and has Aaused AonAern aCout the GaAe of eDents Fithin Afghanistan Fith the GotentiaE of induAing instaCiEitB into Iran!T2J2 222Iran AonfEiAt resuEts in nuAEear Far Eisenstadt 6 011*
[Michael, Se!i" Fell"% X Ea#hi!4t"! I!#titute &" Nea Ea#t )"lic', I a! Eatch Y ,DD, RTHE IAEA AND IRAN. THE )ERILS OF INACTIONT, D:1-, htt8.LL%%%.i a!%atch." 4L8 i+ate+ie%#LEINE)L8e #8e9:%i!e8:ei#e!#ta$t:!uclea i a!: 0D1-0J.ht(6

InstaCiEitB and unrest in a nuAEear Iran AouEd haDe dire AonseJuenAes! 4ere anti7regime DioEenAe to esAaEate to the Goint that it threatened the surDiDaE of the IsEamiA ReGuCEiA /u!liAel' i! the !ea te (, 7ut a 8"##i7ilit' i! the &utu e #h"ul$ 8"8ula $e(a!$# &" 8"litical cha!4e c"!ti!ue t" 7e i4!" e$ 7' c"!#e +ati+e ha $li!e #0, diehard suGGorters of the oEd order might Eash out at GerAeiDed externaE enemies of the doomed regime Fith aEE means at their disGosaE5 inAEuding nuAEear FeaGons. The aGoAaEBGtiA GossiCiEitB of nuAEear terrorism CB an IsEamiA ReGuCEiA in its death throes, th"u4h u!liAel' i! the !ea te (, Aannot Ce dismissed a# a #"u ce "& c"!ce !.
I(8licati"!# "& I!#ta7ilit' i! I a!5

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222CounterinsurgenAB faiEing noF& MarNah! 4aEEaAe 7 01"1

[J"!atha!, a##i#ta!t t" the 8 e#i$e!t at the Ne% A(e ica F"u!$ati"!, a!$ a! i!c"(i!4 (a#te # #tu$e!t i! #ecu it' #tu$ie# at Ie" 4et"%! U!i+e #it' F" ei4! )"lic' Sh"%ti(e i! >a!$aha , Ma' 23, htt8.LLa&8aA.&" ei4!8"lic'.c"(L8"#t#L2010L03L23L#h"%ti(eMi!MAa!$aha 6 >a!$aha %ill 7e the ("#t i(8" ta!t te#t thu# &a "& Ie!. Sta!le' McCh '#talG# #t ate4' "& i!c ea#e$ e#"u ce# a!$ a th" "u4h c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' ca(8ai4! i! A&4ha!i#ta!. Th"u4h it %ill 7e a K8 "ce##K athe tha! "!e 8itche$ 7attle, #ucce## " &ailu e i! the #"uthe ! A&4ha! 8 "+i!ce :: a hi#t" ical Tali7a! #t "!4h"l$ :: %ill $ete (i!e "8e ati"!al ("(e!tu( %ell i!t" 2011, %he! the &i #t "& the U.S. t ""8# a e #che$ule$ t" 7e4i! %ith$ a%i!4. The Tali7a! a e t eati!4 it liAe a (a@" 7attle, attacAi!4 the 7"a $%alA i! >a!$aha ai 7a#e $u i!4 a #"8hi#ticate$ "8e ati"! "+e the %eeAe!$. I& >a!$aha i# #h"% ti(e, the! MarNah has Ceen the dress rehearsaE. It is not going FeEE! The MarNah

oGeration has not Ceen suAAessfuE in rooting out TaEiCan eEements5 FhiAh Aontinue to terroriIe the GoGuEation and undermine the Afghan goDernment that Fas suGGosed to taHe root in the ineGtEB named OgoDernment in a CoxO exGeriment . It i# clea that c"aliti"! &" ce#, %hile #ee(i!4l' a7le t" clea "ut
&i4hte # $u i!4 the i!itial 7attle, ca!!"t &ull' e a$icate the $ee8 ""t# "& the i!#u 4e!c'. A# Ca l"tta Iall, "!e "& the 7e#t Ee#te ! e8" te # i! A&4ha!i#ta!, !"te$ la#t %eeA, the TaEiCan Ka e +illa4e (e! %h" !e+e le&t the a ea alth"u4h the' =uit &i4hti!4 #""! a&te the (ilita ' "8e ati"!. I a$uall' the' found a steaEthier FaB of oGerating5 moDing around

in smaEE grouGs5 often CB motorCiHe or on foot!O Rather than mereEB Faiting untiE the time is riGe to resurge5 then5 EoAaE fighters must Ce AonDinAed to throF in their Eots Fith the Afghan goDernment! HoFeDer5 EaAH of seAuritB5 Goor GerformanAe of the Afghan armed forAes5 and the sEoF GaAe of goDernment GroNeAts haDe undermined the ArediCiEitB of the MAChrBstaE strategB ?and its Gartners in the Afghan goDernment@ and aAted as forAe muEtiGEiers for the TaEiCanMs intimidation taAtiAs! Though stiEE in Grogress5 the MarNah offensiDe 77 a OCEeeding uEAerO 77 EeaDes muAh to Ce desired!

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222No uniJueness to the turns& Counter7insurgenAB is doomed to faiEure and is uEtimateEB unneAessarB for suAAessfuE Aounter7terrorism! Simon R SteDenson 6 011/
[Ste+e! Q J"!atha!N A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F" ei4! Relati"!#, i# a ) "&e##" "& St ate4ic Stu$ie# at the US Na+al Ea C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta!. H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su +i+al, 31. 3, JB ? -B6

Counter7insurgenAB in Afghanistan aEso FouEd GroCaCEB faiE ! CounterinsurgenAB 4e!e all' ForHs onEB Fhen the $"(e#tic 4"+e !(e!t e#i#ti!4 the insurgents e!@"'# the resGeAt and suGGort of most of the domestiA GoGuEation. Rising GerAeGtions of Ha(i$ ,arIaiMs goDernment as ineffeAtuaE and AorruGt, a!$ e#8eciall' #u#8ici"!# that it i44e$ the 20 Au4u#t !ati"!al electi"!, indiAate that it does not haDe that Ai!$ "& ArediCiEitB among Afghans. O! the "8e ati"!al le+el, 8 "+i#i"!al a!$ =uali&ie$ c"u!te :i!#u 4e!c' #ucce## i! I a= i#
!"t a 8e #ua#i+e 8 ece$e!t &" a c"(8a a7le e#ult i! A&4ha!i#ta!. O!e i!$i ect i!$icati"! i# the $i&&icult' the O7a(a a$(i!i#t ati"! i# ha+i!4 i! &i4u i!4 "ut h"% t" (ea#u e #uch #ucce##S Ehile I a=G# 8 i(e i!#u 4e!c' challe!4e# %e e e##e!tiall' c"(8a t(e!tali#e$ i! the c"!&i!e$ #8ace a!$ a("!4 the elati+el' #(all 8"8ulati"!# "& A!7a , Di'ala a!$ Ni!e%ah 8 "+i!ce# a!$ i! Ha4h$a$, A&4ha!i#ta!G# ha<a $# 8e (eate it# Te9a# #i<e$ !ati"!al te it" '. Thu#, aGGEBing the surge formuEa to Afghanistan, h"%e+e it i# a$@u#te$, i# liAel' t" emGoFer FarEords, inArease faAtionaEism and uEtimateEB maHe Afghanistan harder to sustain as a funAtioning unitarB state . This FouEd

maHe Afghanistan more susAeGtiCEe to Ceing used as a strategiA GaFn CB a numCer of regionaE aAtors, i!clu$i!4 I a! a# %ell a# I!$ia a!$ )aAi#ta!. ComGrehensiDeEB suAAessfuE AounterinsurgenAB in Afghanistan5 hoFeDer5 is not neAessariEB reJuired to fuEfiE the US Aounter7terrorism mission! It
e(ai!# u!clea %hethe a US:le$ c"u!te :i!#u 4e!c' e&&" t %"ul$ ai( t" i!$uce the Tali7a! &acti"!# t" e@ect al:;ae$a, " #"(e "the c"!#tellati"! "& t i7e# t" @"i! &" ce# a4ai!#t the Tali7a!. Hut !"!e "& the &acti"!# #ha e the Ai!$ "& "+e a chi!4 !ati"!ali#t #el&:i!te e#t that u!i&ie$ I a=i Su!!i# ac "## t i7al li!e#. The' a e (" e liAe S"(ali cla!#, a!$ !" +i#i7le $a'li4ht ha# e(e 4e$ 7et%ee! the G4""$G Tali7a! a!$ G7a$G (ilita!t#. Those adDoAating an extended Aounter7insurgenAB

AamGaign note that Mthe TaEiCan is not a unified or monoEithiA moDementM5 that manB TaEiCan miEitants Mfight for reasons haDing nothing to do Fith IsEamiA IeaEotrBM5 and that eaAh TaEiCan grouGing has MsGeAifiA needsM and MGartiAuEar AharaAteristiAsM.G H' the #a(e t"Ae!, h"%e+e , the#e h"(e t uth#
i!$icate #uch a hi4h $e4 ee "& ("ti+ati"!al & a4(e!tati"! %ithi! the Tali7a! that !" #i!4le &acti"! i# liAel' t" 4ai! c"(8lete $"(i!a!ce. Thu#, 8"%e i# liAel' t" e(ai! $e+"l+e$, a!$ A&4ha! &acti"!#, liAe S"(ali "!e#, %ill te!$ t" %" ' a7"ut, a!$ &"cu# "!, i((e$iate i+al# athe tha! e9te !al a$+e #a ie#.D T" the e9te!t that the e i# u!it' a("!4 A&4ha! &acti"!#, a# %ith S"(ali#, it %ill 7e a4ai!#t &" ei4!e #.K

0<

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222Counter7insurgenAB faiEing noF& ,arIai FI),INS 6 01"1

[DEZTER, #ta&& % ite , The Ne% O" A Ti(e#N >a <ai I# Sai$ t" D"u7t Ee#t Ca! De&eat Tali7a!, Ju!e 116

$ut their motiDations aGGear to differ starHEB! The AmeriAans and their NATO Gartners are Gouring tens of thousands of additionaE trooGs into the AountrB to FeaHen hard7Aore TaEiCan and forAe the grouG to the Cargaining taCEe! Mr! ,arIai aGGears to CeEieDe that the AmeriAan7Eed offensiDe Aannot ForH! At a !e%# c"!&e e!ce at the ) e#i$e!tial )alace thi# %eeA, M . >a <ai %a# a#Ae$ a7"ut the
Tali7a!F# "le i! the Ju!e J attacA "! the l"'a @i 4a a!$ hi# &aith i! NATO. He $ecli!e$ t" a$$ e## eithe "!e. REh" $i$ it5T M . >a <ai #ai$ "& the attacA. RItF# a =ue#ti"! that "u #ecu it' " 4a!i<ati"! ca! 7 i!4 a!$ 8 e8a e the a!#%e .T A#Ae$ i& he ha$ c"!&i$e!ce i! NATO, M . >a <ai #ai$ he %a# 4 ate&ul &" the hel8 a!$ #ai$ the 8a t!e #hi8 %a# R%" Ai!4 +e ', +e ' %ell.T Hut he $i$ !"t a!#%e the =ue#ti"!. REe a e c"!ti!ui!4 t" %" A "! i(8 "+e(e!t# all a "u!$,T M . >a <ai #ai$, #8eaAi!4 i! E!4li#h a!$ a88ea i!4 !e9t t" Da+i$ Ca(e "!, the H iti#h 8 i(e (i!i#te . A #e!i" NATO "&&icial #ai$ the e#i4!ati"!# "& M . At(a a!$ M . Saleh, %h" ha$ #t "!4 #u88" t & "( the NATO allie#, %e e Re9t e(el' $i# u8ti+e.T The "&&icial #ai$ "& M . >a <ai, RM' c"!ce ! i#, i# he ca8a7le "& 7ei!4 a %a ti(e lea$e 5T The NATO "&&icial #ai$ that A(e ica! c"((a!$e # ha$ 4i+e! M . >a <ai a $"##ie #h"%i!4 "+e %hel(i!4 e+i$e!ce that the attacA "! the 8eace c"!&e e!ce ha$ 7ee! ca ie$ "ut 7' &i4hte # l"'al t" Jalalhu$$i! Ha==a!i, "!e "& the (ai! lea$e # &i4hti!4 u!$e the Tali7a!F# u(7 ella. RThe e %a# !" $"u7t,T the "&&icial #ai$. The resignations of Mr! SaEeh and Mr! Atmar reDeaEed a deeG

fissure among Afghan Eeaders as to the Cest FaB to deaE Fith the TaEiCan and Fith their Gatrons in (aHistan!

0/

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222No EinH& Can signaE dediAation to (aHistan Fithout trooGs! MarHeB 6 011[Da!iel, A Fal#e Ch"ice i! )aAi#ta!. H'. Ma Ae', Da!iel, F" ei4! A&&ai #, 0013B120, JulLAu4200B, *"l. ,-, I##ue J6 Thi $, i&

a!$ %he! 4 eate c"e ci"! i# $ee(e$ !ece##a ', it #h"ul$ 7e a88lie$ th "u4h $e(a!$# &" (" e e!4a4e(e!t. Rathe tha! th eate!i!4 t" cut "&& a##i#ta!ce, the Ehite H"u#e #h"ul$ i!#i#t "! 4 eate acce##::t" )aAi#ta!i i!telli4e!ce "8e ati+e#, t" a (' a!$ "the #ecu it' &" ce#, t" i!&" (ati"!. Ea#hi!4t"! #h"ul$ 8ut a! e!$ t" a!' li!4e i!4 $"u7t# a7"ut it# 8la!# t" #ta' acti+el' i!+"l+e$ i! )aAi#ta! a!$ the e4i"!. I#la(a7a$ i# $ee8l' a+e #e t" ha+i!4 U.S. a (e$ &" ce# "8e ate aut"!"("u#l' %ithi! )aAi#ta!,
#" the#e $e(a!$# #h"ul$ !"t 7e ai#e$ 8u7licl', a!$ a! e&&" t #h"ul$ 7e (a$e t" &i!$ le## c"!#8icu"u# %a'# t" i!te4 ate A(e ica!# i!t" )aAi#ta!i "8e ati"!#. T"$a'G# c"((u!icati"!#, ec"!!ai##a!ce, a!$ l"!4: a!4e #t iAe

tech!"l"4ie# ca! 7 i!4 U.S. &" ce# i!t" a &i4ht %ith"ut e+e 8laci!4 7""t# "! the 4 "u!$. He'"!$ 8"##i7le tactical 7e!e&it#, 4 eate U.S. i!+"l+e(e!t %"ul$ #e!$ the #i4!al that Ea#hi!4t"! 8la!# t" i!+e#t i! l"!4:#ta!$i!4, %" Ai!4:le+el tie# a!$ that it# ulti(ate 4"al i# $ee8e , cl"#e c""8e ati"!.

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222InAreased trooGs in Afghanistan inAreases (aHistan instaCiEitB! Simon R SteDenson 6 011/

[Ste+e! Q J"!atha!N A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F" ei4! Relati"!#, i# a ) "&e##" "& St ate4ic Stu$ie# at the US Na+al Ea C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta!. H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su +i+al, 31. 3,6

Aounter7terrorism is thus stiEE 4ashingtonMs most Gressing tasH! There is EittEe disGute on this Goint! The Juestion is Fhether Aounter7insurgenAB and state7CuiEding in Afghanistan are the Cest means of exeAuting it! The mere faAt that the Aore threat to US interests noF resides in (aHistan rather than Afghanistan Aasts AonsideraCEe douCt on the GroGosition! UnEiHe the TaEiCan5 the seAuEar (aHistani goDernment is not a DiaCEe target for the US miEitarB . It# elati"!#hi8 t" al:;ae$a i# &a (" e #u7tle a!$ c"(8licate$ tha! %a# the Tali7a!G#.
Al:;ae$a e(ai!# the 7i44e#t th eat t" the U!ite$ State# i! Ce!t al a!$ S"uth A#ia, a!$ Ehe ea# the Tali7a! e(7 ace$ al;ae$a a# a! ec"!"(ic 7e!e&act" i! the a7#e!ce "& i!te !ati"!al le4iti(ac', a!$ thu# a("u!te$ t" a &ull #t ate4ic all' "& a! e!e(', I#la(a7a$ 8e cei+e# al:;ae$a a# a Ai!$ "& +i u#. it i# ulti(atel' i!i(ical t" the )aAi#ta!i lea$e #hi8, 7ut the

Frong Hind of AoerAion AouEd Aause it to mutate into something more dangerous 7 to Fit5 a AataEBsing moDement that fueEs IsEamiA radiAaEisation in (aHistan and imGeriEs the seAuEar regime! This is one reason that (aHistanMs Aounter7terrorism and Aounter7insurgenAB AooGeration has Ceen so erratiA. A!"the ea#"! i# that hel8i!4 t" Aee8 the Tali7a! a +ia7le 8"litical 8la'e i! A&4ha!i#ta! #e +e# )aAi#ta!G# e4i"!al #t ate4ic
i!te e#t# i! 8 "+i$i!4 )aAi#ta! %ith #t ate4ic $e8th +i#:[:+i# I!$ia a!$ i! $e!'i!4 I!$ia a &ull' #ta7le a!$ c""8e ati+e e4i(e the e. ) e#i$e!t O7a(a ha# ca#t A&4ha!i#ta! a# a !e4lecte$ %a "& !ece##it' i! c"!t a#t t" the 8utati+e %a "& ch"ice %ith I a=. Oet &" the U!ite$ State#, a!' a!al'tic $i#ti!cti"! 7et%ee! a %a "& ch"ice a!$ "!e "& !ece##it' at thi# 8"i!t i# a 4ua7l' u!te!a7le. i& !ece##it' i# a &u!cti"! "& a! e9i#te!tial th eat : that i#, "!e that i(8e il# the A(e ica! #tate : the U!ite$ State# &ace# !"!e & "( a!' =ua te , #" !" %a it u!$e taAe# i# t ul' !ece##a ' i! that #e!#e. The S"+iet U!i"!, %ith a7u!$a!t !uclea %ea8"!# a!$ a +a#t, %ell e=ui88e$ (ilita ', %a# a! e9i#te!tial th eat. Al:;ae$a, th"u4h e9t e(el' $a!4e "u# a!$ $i# u8ti+e, i# !"t.G Ea , "& c"u #e, (a' 7e "! 7ala!ce a $e#i a7le " a$+i#a7le %a' "& a$+a!ci!4 A(e ica! i!te e#t#. I! the ca#e "& A&4ha!i#ta!, the i(8licit a##u(8ti"! "& US 8"lic'(aAe # i# that 8aci&'i!4 the c"u!t ' th "u4h c"e ci+e a!$ e98a!#i+e c"u!te :i!#u 4e!c' "8e ati"!# a!$ a c"!ce te$ e&&" t t" 7 i!4 " $e t" it# 8"litic# %ill (aAe it ea#ie , " at lea#t %ill !"t (aAe it ha $e , t" c"!tai! e4i"!al (ilita!c' a!$ e!#u e #ta7ilit' i! )aAi#ta!. The U!ite$ State# 8la!# t" 7 i!4 the A(e ica! t ""8 8 e#e!ce i! A&4ha!i#ta! t" B,,000 7' (i$ 2010, %hich %"ul$ e8 e#e!t a! i!c ea#e "& !ea l' a thi $ "+e the (i$ 200D !u(7e . Fi#cal:'ea 2010 &u!$i!4 &" O8e ati"! E!$u i!4 F ee$"( %ill i!c ea#e 7' al("#t J0\, i!clu$i!4 a CB.3 7illi"! 7u(8 &" the A&4ha! #ecu it' &" ce# a!$ a! a$$iti"!al CB00 (illi"! &" the )aAi#ta! C"u!te i!#u 4e!c' Ca8a7ilit' Fu!$, a &le9i7le #8e!$i!4 8 "4 a((e that all"%# &" #%i&te a!$ (" e tail" e$ t ai!i!4 a!$ e=ui8(e!t &" )aAi#ta!i c"u!te :i!#u 4e!c' &" ce#. I!$ee$, i! Au4u#t 200D US c"((a!$e # 7e4a! 8 e##i!4 &" (" e t ""8# t" 7e $e8l"'e$ at a &a#te 8ace.J Ehate+e US "&&icial# (i4ht c"!ce$e 8 i+atel', the

4hite House, State De8a t(e!t a!$ )e!ta4"! haDe thus far not aAHnoFEedged GuCEiAEB the GossiCiEitB that greater AmeriAan intrusiDeness in Afghanistan might mean Eess (aHistani AooGeration! That5 hoFeDer5 aGGears to Ce the Aase! T" 7e #u e, )aAi#ta! ha# 8 a4(aticall' e#8"!$e$ t" US 8 e##u e t" th%a t the Tali7a! i! it# t i7al a ea#. Hut it is more signifiAant in the Croader strategiA Aontext that (aHistan has oCNeAted to exGanded US miEitarB oGerations in Afghanistan on tFo grounds! FirstEB5 theB FouEd Aause a Aross7Corder sGiEEoDer of miEitants into (aHistan and inArease the Aounter7insurgenAB Curden on the (aHistani miEitarB! SeAondEB5 theB FouEd foment GoEitiAaE instaCiEitB in (aHistan CB intensifBing GoGuEar GerAeGtions of AmeriAan miEitarB "ccu8ati"! "& the e4i"! a!$ the )aAi#ta!i 4"+e !(e!tG# c"(8licit' %ith the
A(e ica!# i! #u88 e##i!4 a 4 "u8 that %a# !"t e+e! c"!#i$e e$ a! e!e(' "& )aAi#ta!. I!$ee$, i! a Jul' #t ate4ic 8 i" it' 200D 7 ie&i!4, )aAi#ta!i "&&icial# (a$e it clea that, h"%e+e c"!ce !e$ the U!ite$ State# %a# a7"ut the Tali7a!, the' #till e4a $ I!$ia a# thei t"8 #t ate4ic 8 i" it' a!$ the Tali7a! (ilita!t# a# little (" e tha! a c"!tai!a7le !ui#a!ce a!$, i! the l"!4 te (, 8"te!tial allie#.3 I! thi# li4ht, the reaEistiA AmeriAan oCNeAtiDe shouEd !"t 7e t" e!#u e A&4ha!i#ta!G# 8"litical i!te4 it' 7' !eut ali#i!4 the Tali7a!

Ce mereEB to ensure that aE7 ;aeda is denied Coth Afghanistan and (aHistan as oGerating Cases for transnationaE attaAHs on the United States and its aEEies and Gartners.
a!$ c"!tai!i!4 )aAi#ta!i a$icali#(, %hich i# 8 "7a7l' u!achie+a7le. Rathe , it# ai( #h"ul$

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222InAreasing trooGs FiEE AoEEaGse (aHistan 6 reduAing the US miEitarB footGrint is DitaE to soEDing ,ristof 6 011/
/Nich"la#, t%" ti(e )ulit<e ) i<e %i!!i!4 @"u !ali#t &" the Ne% O" A Ti(e#, Ne% O" A Ti(e#, RThe A&4ha!i#ta! A7'##T, DL3, htt8.LL%%%.!'ti(e#.c"(L200DL0DL0-L"8i!i"!L0-A i#t"&.ht(l5M U10
) e#i$e!t O7a(a ha# al ea$' $i#8atche$ a! a$$iti"!al 21,000 A(e ica! t ""8# t" A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ #""! %ill $eci$e %hethe t" #e!$ th"u#a!$# (" e. That %"ul$ 7e a &ate&ul $eci#i"! &" hi# 8 e#i$e!c', a!$ a 4 "u8 "& &" (e i!telli4e!ce "&&icial# a!$ "the e98e t# i# !"% elucta!tl' 4"i!4 8u7lic t" %a ! that (" e t ""8# %"ul$ 7e a hi#t" ic (i#taAe. The 4 "u8F# c"!ce ! ? $ea$ i4ht, i! (' +ie% ? i# that #e!$i!4

(" e A(e ica! t ""8# i!t" eth!ic )a#htu! a ea# i! the A&4ha! #"uth (a' "!l' 4al+a!i<e l"cal 8e"8le t" 7acA the Tali7a! i! e8elli!4 the i!&i$el#. ROu 8"lic' (aAe # $" !"t u!$e #ta!$ that the +e ' 8 e#e!ce "& "u &" ce# i! the )a#htu! a ea# i# the 8 "7le(,T the 4 "u8 #ai$ i! a #tate(e!t t" (e. R The (" e t ""8# %e 8ut i!, the 4 eate the "88"#iti"!. Ee $" !"t (iti4ate the "88"#iti"! 7' i!c ea#i!4 t ""8 le+el#, 7ut athe %e i!c ea#e the "88"#iti"! a!$ 8 "+e t" the )a#htu!# that the Tali7a! a e c" ect.
RThe 7a#ic i4!" a!ce 7' "u lea$e #hi8 i# 4"i!4 t" cau#e the $eath# "& (a!' &i!e A(e ica! t ""8# %ith !" 8"#iti+e "utc"(e,T the #tate(e!t #ai$. The 4 "u8 i!clu$e# H"%a $ Ha t, a &" (e Ce!t al I!telli4e!ce A4e!c' #tati"! chie& i! )aAi#ta!N Da+i$ Mille , a &" (e a(7a##a$" a!$ Nati"!al Secu it' C"u!cil "&&icialN Eillia( J. Ol#"!, a c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' #ch"la at the Nati"!al De&e!#e U!i+e #it'N a!$ a!"the C.I.A. +ete a! %h" $"e# !"t %a!t hi# !a(e 8u7li#he$ 7ut %h" #8e!t 12 'ea # i! the e4i"!, %a# #tati"! chie& i! >a7ul at the ti(e the S"+iet# i!+a$e$ A&4ha!i#ta! i! 1DBD, a!$ late hea$e$ the C.I.A.F# C"u!te te " i#( Ce!te . REe #ha e a c"!ce ! that the

c"u!t ' i# $ i+i!4 "+e a cli&&,T M . Mille #ai$. M . Ha t, %h" hel8e$ " 4a!i<e the a!ti:S"+iet i!#u 4e!c' i! the 1D,0#, cauti"!# that A(e ica!# @u#t $"!Ft u!$e #ta!$ the t"u4h!e##, $ete (i!ati"! a!$ &i4hti!4 #Aill# "& the )a#htu! t i7e#. He a$$# that i& the U.S. e#calate# the %a , the e#ult %ill 7e a$icali<ati"! "& )a#htu!# i! )aAi#ta! a!$ &u the i!#ta7ilit' the e ? 8"##i7l' e+e! the c"lla8#e "& )aAi#ta!.
The#e e98e t# a e !"t 8e"8le %h" c a+e 8u7licit'N I ha$ t" 8e #ua$e the( t" 4" 8u7lic %ith thei c"!ce !#. A!$ thei +ie%# a e %i$el' #ha e$ a("!4 "the # %h" al#" A!"% A&4ha!i#ta! %ell.

REeF+e 7itte! "&& (" e tha! %e ca! che%N %eF e #etti!4 "u #el+e# u8 &" &ailu e,T #ai$ R" ' Ste%a t, a &" (e
H iti#h $i8l"(at %h" teache# at Ha +a $ %he! he i# !"t u!!i!4 a la 4e ai$ 8 "4 a( i! A&4ha!i#ta!. M . Ste%a t $e#c i7e# the A(e ica! (ilita ' #t ate4' i! A&4ha!i#ta! a# R!"!#e!#e.T IF( % iti!4 a7"ut the#e c"!ce !# 7ecau#e I #ha e the(. IF( al#" t "u7le$ 7ecau#e "&&icial# i! Ea#hi!4t"!

#ee( t" (aAe $eci#i"!# 7a#e$ "! a #i(8li#tic ca icatu e "& the Tali7a! that $"e#!Ft (atch %hat IF+e &"u!$ i! (' e8" ti!4 t i8# t" A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ )aAi#ta!. A("!4 the )a#htu!#, the 8"8ulati"! i# !"t !eatl' $i+i#i7le i!t" RTali7a!T " R!"!:Tali7a!.T Rathe , the )a#htu!# a e t" ! 7' c"(8le9 a#8i ati"!# a!$ &ea #.
Ma!' )a#htu!# IF+e i!te +ie%e$ a e a88alle$ 7' the Tali7a!F# 8e i"$ic 7 utalit' a!$ thi!A the' a e t"" e9t e(eN the' thi!A the'F e a little !ut#. Hut the#e )a#htu!# al#" a$(i e the Tali7a!F# 8e #"!al h"!e#t' a!$ eli4i"u# 8iet', a c"!t a#t t" the c" u8ti"! "& #" (a!' "&&icial# a "u!$ ) e#i$e!t Ha(i$ >a <ai. S"(e Tali7a! a e ha $:c" e i$e"l"4ue#, 7ut (a!' @"i! the &i4ht 7ecau#e & ie!$# " el$e # #u44e#t it, 7ecau#e the' a e a+e!4i!4 the $eath# "& elati+e# i! 8 e+i"u# &i4hti!4, 7ecau#e itF# a %a' t" ea ! ("!e', " 7ecau#e the' %a!t t" e98el the i!&i$el# & "( thei la!$ ? 8a ticula l' 7ecau#e the &" ei4!e # ha+e!Ft 7 "u4ht the "a$#, 7 i$4e# a!$ i i4ati"! 8 "@ect# that ha$ 7ee! a!tici8ate$. F a!Al', i& a 7u!ch "& &" ei4! Mu#li( t ""8# i! tu 7a!# #h"%e$ u8 i! (' h"(et"%! i! u al O e4"!, #ea chi!4 "u h"(e# %ith"ut 7 i!4i!4 a!' "7+i"u# 7e!e&it, the! %e (i4ht all taAe t" the hill# %ith "u $ee i&le# a# %ell. I! &ai !e##, the A(e ica! (ilita ' ha# hu4el' i(8 "+e$ it# #e!#iti+it', a!$ #"(e c"((a!$e # i! the &iel$ ha+e 7ee! #u8e 7 i! 7uil$i!4 t u#t %ith A&4ha!#. That %" A#. Hut all c"((a!$e # ca!Ft 7e #u8e 7, a!$ "+e all, "u i!c ea#e$ 8 e#e!ce (aAe# )a#htu!# (" e liAel' t" #ee u# a# alie! "ccu8ie #. That (a' 7e %h' the t ""8 i!c ea#e thi# 'ea ha#!Ft cal(e$ thi!4#. I!#tea$, 200D i# al ea$' the 7l""$ie#t 'ea &" A(e ica! t ""8# i! A&4ha!i#ta! ? %ith &"u ("!th# le&t t" 4". The #"luti"! i# !eithe t" 8ull "ut "& A&4ha!i#ta! !" t" $"u7le $"%!. Rathe , %e

!ee$ t" c"!ti!ue "u 8 e#e!ce %ith a li4hte (ilita ' &""t8 i!t, li(ite$ t" t ai!i!4 the A&4ha! &" ce# a!$ hel8i!4 the( h"l$ (a@" citie#, a!$ e!#u i!4 that Al ;ae$a $"e# !"t e4 "u8. Ee (u#t al#" i!+e#t (" e i! e$ucati"! a!$ a4 icultu e $e+el"8(e!t, &" that i# a %a' "+e ti(e t" 8eel
)a#htu!# a%a' & "( the Tali7a!.

Thi# %"ul$ 7e a (u$$le$, i(8e &ect #t ate4' %ith & u#t ati!4l' ("$e#t 4"al#, 7ut it %"ul$ 7e #u#tai!a7le 8"liticall' a!$ (ilita il'. A!$ it $"e# !"t e=ui e hea+' i!+e#t(e!t# "& A(e ica! a!$ A&4ha! 7l""$.

#0

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222Counter7insurgenAB FiEE inArease Anti7AmeriAanism and the risH of terrorism! Simon R SteDenson 6 011/
[Ste+e! Q J"!atha!N A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F" ei4! Relati"!#, i# a ) "&e##" "& St ate4ic Stu$ie# at the US Na+al Ea C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta!. H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su +i+al, 31. 3,6

The OCama administrationMs instinAts faDouring roCust Aounter7insurgenAB and state7CuiEding in Afghanistan refEeAt the "//os7era US and EuroGean GrediEeAtion for GeaAeHeeGing5 reAonstruAtion and staCiEisation5 and the muEtiEateraE use of forAe for humanitarian interDention , $e8l"'e$ t" 8"#iti+e
e&&ect i! the HalAa!# a!$ %ithhel$ t a4icall' i! R%a!$a. T" the e9te!t that thi# (i!$#et %a# 8 e(i#e$ "! a! e98a!#i"! "& the ule "& la% t" hithe t" 8"" l' a!$ u!@u#tl' 4"+e !e$ a ea#, #uch a# S"(alia a!$ H"#!ia, it e&lect# the 7 "a$e c"!ce8ti"! "& c"u!te :te " i#( a$"8te$ a&te ii Se8te(7e . I!#"&a a# it &a+"u # c"llecti+e acti"! 7' (a@" 8"%e # %ith the u!a(7i4u"u# e!$" #e(e!t "& the UN Secu it' C"u!cil, it i# al#" c"!#i#te!t %ith the O7a(a a$(i!i#t ati"!G# e@ecti"! "& Hu#h:e a u!ilate ali#(. A!$ a! a44 e##i+e i!te !ati"!ali#t a88 "ach t" #8 ea$i!4 $e("c ac' a!$ the ule "& la%, !"t%ith#ta!$i!4 the #h" t#i4hte$!e## a!$ i!e&&icac' "& the Hu#h $"ct i!e, i# a$(i a7le a!$ i! #"(e i!#ta!ce# a88 "8 iate.G In this Aase5 hoFeDer5 it is more EiHeEB to hurt than

heEG! 4hiEe a Earger US miEitarB footGrint might heEG staCiEise Afghanistan in the short term5 the effeAts of AoEEateraE damage and the aura of US domination it FouEd generate FouEd aEso intensifB anti7AmeriAanism in (aHistan! This outAome5 in turn5 FouEd frustrate Coth Aore AmeriAan oCNeAtiDes CB rendering it GoEitiAaEEB far more diffiAuEt for the (aHistani goDernment to AooGerate Fith 4ashington /a!$ ea#ie &" the =ua#i:i!$e8e!$e!t I!te :Se +ice# I!telli4e!ce t" c"llu$e %ith the Tali7a! a!$ al: ;ae$a0, thu# (aAi!4 it ha $e &" the U!ite$ State# t" $e&eat al;ae$a. It FouEd aEso inArease radiAaEisation in (aHistan5 imGeriE the regime and raise GroEiferation risHs5 inAreasing rather than deAreasing Gressure on India to aAt in the CreaAh of AmeriAan ineffeAtuaEitB!

##

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222ReduAing forAes in Afghanistan and foAusing on Aounter7terrorism efforts stoGs inAreasing radiAaEism in (aHistan! InnoAent 6 011/
[Mal"uF F" ei4! )"lic' A!al'#t at the Cat" I!#tituteN The US Mu#t Rea##e## It# D "!e )"lic' htt8.LL%%%.cat"." 4L8u7M$i#8la'.8h858u7Mi$U10JBD The US Mu#t Rea##e## It# D "!e )"lic'6

Drone striHes aEso AontriCute to the Fidening trust defiAit CetFeen (aHistanis a!$ the US. A ece!t 8"ll c"!$ucte$ 7' Iallu8 )aAi#ta! &" Al:Ja<ee a &"u!$ that +/ GerAent CeEieDe$ the US Fas the greatest threat to (aHistan. Most (aHistanis oGGose extremism> theB simGEB disagree Fith AmeriAan taAtiAs. AmeriAaMs interests Eie in ensuring the Dirus of anti7AmeriAan radiAaEism does not infeAt the rest of the region. Oet 4ashingtonMs attemGts to staCiEiIe Afghanistan heEG destaCiEiIe (aHistan5 7ecau#e its acti"!# serDe as a reAruiting tooE for (aHistani TaEiCan miEitants. Ju#t a# "!e %"ul$ !"t Aill a &l' %ith a #le$4eha((e , using oDerFheEming fireGoFer to HiEE a singEe insurgent Areates AoEEateraE damage that Aan reAruit +1 more. Milita ' &" ce a4ai!#t i!#u 4e!t# (u#t 7e a88lie$ 8 eci#el' a!$ $i#c i(i!atel'. O! the 4 "u!$,
)aAi#ta!i #ecu it' &" ce# lacA t ai!i!4, e=ui8(e!t, a!$ c"((u!icati"! 4ea t" ca ' "ut a l"%:i!te!#it' c"u!te i!#u 4e!c'. Hut drones 8 "+i$e a 8"" #u7#titute i& the 4"al i# t" e!4a4e athe tha! aEienate the other side. A Cetter strategB in Afghanistan and (aHistan is &" the U!ite$ State# t" &"cu# "! li(iti!4 c "##:7" $e ("+e(e!t 7' #u88" ti!4 l"cal )aAi#ta!i #ecu it' &" ce# %ith a smaEE numCer of US SGeAiaE ForAes GersonneE! T" i(8 "+e &i4hti!4 ca8a7ilitie# a!$ e!ha!ce c""8e ati"!, Ea#hi!4t"! a!$ I#la(a7a$ (u#t i!c ea#e the !u(7e "& (ilita ':t": (ilita ' t ai!i!4 8 "4 a(# to heEG hone (aHistanMs Aounterterrorism AaGaCiEities and serDe as a

AonfidenAe7CuiEding measure to Eessen the (aHistan ArmBMs tiEt toFard radiAaEism!

E!$i!4 $ "!e #t iAe# i# !" 8a!acea &" )aAi#ta!G# a a' "& 8 "7le(#. Hut c"!ti!ui!4 th"#e #t iAe# %ill ce tai!l' $ee8e! the (ulti8le challe!4e# the c"u!t ' &ace#. M"#t )aAi#ta!i# $" !"t 8a##i+el' acce8t A(e ica! acti"!#, a!$ "&&icial# i! I#la(a7a$ ca!!"t a&&" $ t" 7e 8e cei+e$ a# 8utti!4 Ea#hi!4t"!G# i!te e#t# a7"+e th"#e "& thei "%! 8e"8le. )ong7term suAAess in

Coth Afghanistan and (aHistan deGends on the GeoGEeMs reGudiation of extremism! Continued US aAtions add more fueE to DioEent reEigious radiAaEism> it is time to reassess Coth US taAtiAs and oCNeAtiDes in the region!

#*

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

.....HEGEMON' AD%ANTAGE.....

#+

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222CounterinsurgenAB FiEE AoEEaGse hegemonB 6 ineDitaCEe FithdraF of faiEed Far! Simon R SteDenson 6 011/
[Ste+e! Q J"!atha!N A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F" ei4! Relati"!#, i# a ) "&e##" "& St ate4ic Stu$ie# at the US Na+al Ea C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta!. H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su +i+al, 31. 3, JB ? -B6 The u8#h"t i# that onEB

if the United States estaCEishes a FeEE7AaEiCrated Eimited GoEiAB noF FiEE it haDe the GoEitiAaE fEexiCiEitB to sustain it oDer the Eonger7term and thereCB to effeAtiDeEB Aontain the Nihadist threat in CentraE Asia! If, "! the "the ha!$, the OCama administration Gromises more than it Aan deEiDer in Afghanistan5 a reGrise of %ietnam maB oAAur& onAe faiEure CeAomes AEear5 domestiA suGGort FiEE eDaGorate5 the administration FiEE Ce AomGeEEed to FithdraF GreAiGitousEB5 and the United States FiEE Eose AonsideraCEe traAtion in the region.

#9

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222CounterinsurgenAB doAtrine is oDerstretAhing the US miEitarB and exhausting AmeriAan EeadershiG 6 FithdraFing to a Aounterterrorism strategB is DitaE to GreDenting great GoFer AhaEEengers ,retHoFsHi 6 01"1
[)aul, F e=ue!tl' a##i#t# thi!A ta!A i! c"!&e e!ce# a!$ "the %" A 8 "$uct# that ai$ D"DG# l"!4:te ( thi!Ai!4 a7"ut th eat# that (a' !"t 7e a$$ e##a7le +ia %ea8"!# 8lat&" (#. S8e!t #i9 ("!th# i! A&4ha!i#ta! %" Ai!4 %ith A (' 8u7lic a&&ai #. RA4ai!#t COIN, &" CT i! A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ El#e%he eT, 1LB, Heac"! /a 7l"40, htt8.LL#"&t8"%e 7eac"!.7l"4#8"t.c"(L2010L01La4ai!#t:c"i!:&" :ct:i!:a&4ha!i#ta!:a!$.ht(l6

The U!S! AouEd OFinO in Afghanistan %he e +ict" ' i# $e&i!e$ a# a #ta7le, le4iti(ate ce!t al 4"+e !(e!t that ca!
8 "@ect 8"%e %ithi! it# "%! 7" $e #. I $"!Gt $"u7t that the U.S. a!$ it# allie# c"ul$ acc"(8li#h thi# 4i+e! e!"u4h ti(e a!$ e#"u ce#. $ut I thi!A?a# (a!' COIN e98e t# al#" $"?that it FiEE taHe at Eeast another deAade or more of

CEood a!$ t ea#u e t" 8 "$uce #uch a

e#ult, i& e+e .

O& c"u #e IG$ liAe t" #ee the e#ult# "& a #ucce##&ul COIN ca(8ai4!. a #ta7le $e("c ac', %"(e!G# i4ht#, a!$ 4e!e al 8 "#8e it' &" A&4ha!#, %h" a("!4 all A#iaG# 8e"8le# #u el' $e#e +e th"#e thi!4#. I ce tai!l' %a!t t" e!$ al:;aGi$aG# a7ilit' t" "8e ate & eel' i! S"uth A#ia a!$ el#e%he e. The U.S. i# the "!l' c"u!t ' that %"ul$ 7"th c"!cei+e "& the#e (i##i"!# a!$ atte(8t t" ca ' the( "ut. Hut 4"al# 7e'"!$ Aee8i!4 al:;aGi$a "! the u! $"!Gt #e +e the l"!4:te ( i!te e#t# "& the U.S., a!$ I a( (" e i!te e#te$ i! e4ai!i!4 a!$ 8 e#e +i!4 U.S. ha $ 8"%e tha! I a( i! the e%a $# that %"ul$ c"(e & "( K%i!!i!4K a le!4th' COIN %a . I &ea the U!S! GeoGEe and goDernment CeAoming exhausted from the Aosts of a EengthB COIN effort , @u#t as theB are aEreadB exhausted from /a!$ ha+e la 4el' &" 4"tte! a7"ut0 the IraJ %a . I %" ' that if this fatigue sits in5 the U!S! FiEE aCandon foreign7GoEiAB EeadershiG a# it ha# $"!e 8e i"$icall' th "u4h"ut hi#t" '. This outAome FouEd Ce Forse than a resurgent TaEiCan, %" #e tha! A&4ha! %"(e! a!$ (e! 7ei!4 &u the "88 e##e$, a!$ Forse than aE7;aMida ha+i!4 8le!ti&ul a$$iti"!al ca+e# t" 8l"t i!. He e a e #"(e #i4!# "& a! e9hau#ti"! "& U.S. 8"%e . The U!S! is aEreadB oDerextended, %ith c"((it(e!t# i! I a= /#h i!Ai!4 &" !"%0, A&4ha!i#ta! /e98a!$i!40, Oe(e! /8e!$i!40 a!$ I a! /THD0. At h"(e, the U.S. ec"!"(' e(ai!# &ee7le a!$ i! the l"!4 te ( i# i!c ea#i!4l' h"#ta4e t" "the !ati"!# &" 4""$# a!$ #e +ice# it !" l"!4e 8 "$uce# /a!$ i!c ea#i!4l', !" l"!4e can 8 "$uce0. E+e! (" e %" i#"(e i# the U.S. c e$it #ituati"!. The %a #, a!$ (uch "the U.S. 4"+e !(e!t #8e!$i!4, a e !"% hea+il' u!$e % itte! 7' "the c"u!t ie#G 8u cha#e# "& $e7t the U.S. i##ue#. It ha# 7" "%e$ t illi"!# & "( &" ei4! c"u!t ie# a!$ e#8eciall' Chi!a, %hich c"!ti!ue# it# #tea$', hi4hl' ati"!al 8"lic' "& 8 "("ti!4 e98" t# %hile & ee i$i!4 u!$e the A(e ica! #ecu it' u(7 ella /@u#t a# the U.S. "!ce "$e &" & ee 7e!eath H itai!G#0. O+e ti(e, th"#e c"u!t ie# acc ue e!"u4h $e7t t" ha+e a #a' i! U.S. 8"licie# that (a' th eate! the $"lla G# +alue, %hich i# %h' '"u !"% #ee hi4h U.S. "&&icial# &l'i!4 t" Hei@i!4 t" #""the )RC !e +e# a!$ e98lai! %h' A(e ica Aee8# 7" "%i!4 ("!e'. At h"(e, the e a e &e% e#"u ce# t" a88l' &"ll"%i!4 a (a@" $i#a#te , #uch a# a >at i!a:#t'le hu ica!e " a (a@" ea th=uaAe.

The U!S! needs to #ta t reCuiEdi!4 its reserDesLof AaGitaE, "& Aredit, "& 8"litical 4""$%ill a7 "a$, "& miEitarB forAe?to Ce readB for these and (" e serious Arises5 for FhiAh Fe AurrentEB haDe feF resourAes to sGare. Such challe!4e# (a' i!+"l+e hu(a!ita ia! c i#e# /thi!A Da &u , a R%a!$a:#t'le 4e!"ci$e, I!$ia! Ocea! t#u!a(i#0N Lati!
A(e ica! i!#ta7ilit' /Me9ic", *e!e<uela, 8"#t:Ca#t " Cu7a0N "4ue:#tate !uclea $e+el"8(e!t /I a!, N" th >" ea0N " c"(8le9 challe!4e# & "( a i#i!4 8"%e /Chi!a, a ei!+i4" ate$ Ru##ia0.

#-

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222Afghanistan is a Juagmire of attrition Farfare that is destroBing US moraEe and readiness! ,uhner 6 011/
/Je&& e', the 8 e#i$e!t "& the E$(u!$ Hu Ae I!#titute &" A(e ica! Re!e%al, Ea#hi!4t"! Ti(e#, RO7a(aF# =ua4(i eN US #h"ul$ l""A t" it# "%! i!te e#t#,T DLB, Le9i# Aca$e(ic0

The trooG surge, h"%e+e , FiEE not ForH. Afghanistan has CeAome Mr! OCamaMs %ietnam 7 a GrotraAted Juagmire draining GreAious AmeriAan CEood a!$ t ea#u e. Au4u#t %a# the $ea$lie#t ("!th &" U.S. &" ce#, %ith JB #"l$ie # Aille$ 7'
Tali7a! i!#u 4e!t#. M" e tha! 100 c"aliti"! t ""8# ha+e $ie$ i! 200D. Thi# i# the hi4he#t t"ll #i!ce the %a 7e4a! i! 2001, a!$ the e a e #till &"u ("!th# t" 4". The ti$e "& 7attle ha# tu !e$ a4ai!#t the Ee#t. The Tali7a! i# e#u 4e!t. It ha# ea##e te$ c"!t "l "+e it# #"uthe ! #t "!4h"l$ i! >a!$aha . The TaEiCan

is EaunAhing deDastating attaAHs i! the %e#te ! a!$ !" the ! 8a t# "& the c"u!t ' : &" (e l' #ta7le a ea#. U!S! AasuaEties are soaring! The moraEe of AoaEition forAes is GEummeting . M"#t "& "u allie# : %ith the e9ce8ti"! "& the Ca!a$ia!# a!$ the H iti#h : a e elucta!t t"
e!4a4e the I#la(i#t (ilita!t#. AmeriAan GuCEiA suGGort for the Far is Faning! The c"!&lict ha# $ a44e$ "! &" !ea l' ei4ht 'ea #. /U.S. i!+"l+e(e!t i! E" l$ Ea II %a# &"u 'ea #, E" l$ Ea I le## tha! "!e.0 Oet, A(e icaG# #t ate4ic "7@ecti+e# e(ai! i!c"he e!t a!$ elu#i+e. The %a G# i!itial ai( %a# t" t"88le the Tali7a! a!$ e a$icate al ;ae$a 7a#e# & "( A&4ha! te it" '. Th"#e 4"al# ha+e 7ee! achie+e$. Ea#hi!4t"! #h"ul$ ha+e $ecla e$ +ict" ' a!$ &"cu#e$ "! the (" e i(8" ta!t i##ue. 8 e+e!ti!4 I#la(ic &u!$a(e!tali#t# & "( #ei<i!4 8"%e i! )aAi#ta!, al"!4 %ith it# !uclea a #e!al. I!#tea$, A(e ica i# e!4a4e$ i! &utile !ati"!:7uil$i!4. M . O7a(a, liAe ) e#i$e!t Ie" 4e E. Hu#h 7e&" e hi(, 7elie+e# A&4ha!i#ta! (u#t 7e t a!#&" (e$ 7' e ecti!4 a #t "!4 ce!t al 4"+e !(e!t, $e("c ac' a!$ a ("$e ! ec"!"('. Ea#hi!4t"! a 4ue# thi# %ill 8 e+e!t te " i#( & "( taAi!4 ""t a!$ 7 i!4 a7"ut la#ti!4 K#ta7ilit'.K He!ce, &"ll"%i!4 a ece!t ea##e##(e!t "& the %a 7' Ie!. Sta!le' A. McCh '#tal, U.S. c"((a!$e i! A&4ha!i#ta!, the O7a(a a$(i!i#t ati"! i# c"!te(8lati!4 $e8l"'i!4 20,000 t" J0,000 U.S. t ""8# : "! t"8 "& the 21,000 al ea$' 8le$4e$. M" e"+e , 7illi"!# ha+e 7ee! #8e!t 7uil$i!4 i i4ati"! ca!al#, #ch""l#, h"#8ital# a!$ &act" ie#. Ci+ilia! a$+i#e # a e 7ei!4 #e!t t" e!c"u a4e &a (e # t" 4 "% "the ca#h c "8# 7e#i$e# "8iu( 8"88ie#. Ee#te ! ai$ ("!e' ha# 7ee! u#e$ t" e#ta7li#h a (a##i+e A&4ha! a (', a la 4e 8"lice &" ce a!$ a #%"lle! 4"+e !(e!t 7u eauc ac'. Ie!. McCh '#tal #ai$ thi# %eeA that the #ituati"! i# K#e i"u#,K 7ut !"t i(8"##i7le. He #till 7elie+e# +ict" ' i# %ithi! each. Hi# !e% #t ate4' i# t" 8 "tect A&4ha! ci+ilia!# & "( Tali7a! attacA#. He al#" %a!t# t" c eate a luc ati+e @"7# 8 "4 a(# a!$ i(8 "+e l"cal 4"+e !(e!t #e +ice#. The 4"al i# t" %i! the Khea t# a!$ (i!$#K "& the A&4ha! 8e"8le. A$(. MiAe Mulle!, chai (a! "& the J"i!t Chie&# "& Sta&&, #a'# %e (u#t c"(7at A&4ha!i#ta!G# Kcultu e "& 8"+e t'.K Call it hu(a!ita ia! %a th "u4h #"cial e!4i!ee i!4. M . OCamaMs GoEiAB FiEE resuEt in a maNor AmeriAan defeat 7 one that FiEE signaE the end of AmeriAa as a

suGerGoFer and exGose us to the ForEd as a GaGer tiger. A&4ha!i#ta! i# the 4 a+e'a $ "& e(8i e#. The (i4ht' H iti#h a!$ Ru##ia! a (ie# %e e hu(iliate$ i! $ a%!:"ut 4ue illa ca(8ai4!#. The AountrBMs ("u!tai!"u# 4e"4 a8h' a!$ 8 i(iti+e t i7al cultu e are i$eall' suited for insurgent Farfare. $B sending in more trooGs5 4ashington is GEaBing right into the TaEiCanMs hands& 4e are enaCEing the TaEiCan to GiAH off our forAes one CB one a# the' %a4e a ca(8ai4! "& att iti"!. The TaEiCan CEend Fith the EoAaE GoGuEation5 maHing it al("#t imGossiCEe for U!S! forAes to distinguish AomCatants from AiDiEians. A(e ica! AounterinsurgenAB e&&" t# are thu# aEienating #"(e "& the EoAaEs. I!itiall' %elc"(e$ a# li7e at" #, Fe are !"% DieFed i! #"(e =ua te # as oAAuGiers. M" e"+e , (uch "& the Ee#tG# ai$ ("!e' i# #i8h"!e$ "&& 7' 4 ee$' 8"liticia!# i!
>a7ul. ) e#i$e!t Ha(i$ >a <aiG# 4"+e !(e!t i# c" u8t, +e!al a!$ i!e&&ecti+e. It 7a el' c"!t "l# "!e:thi $ "& the c"u!t '. It i# $e#8i#e$ 7' (a!' A&4ha!# &" it# 7 utalit' a!$ i!c"(8ete!ce. I! a$$iti"!, M . >a <aiG# +ice:8 e#i$e!tial u!!i!4 (ate i# a $ u4 t a&&icAe . The Ee#tG# e&&" t# t" &" 4e a c"he#i+e !ati"!al #tate 7a#e$ "! &e$e ali#( a!$ ec"!"(ic ec"!#t ucti"! ha+e &aile$. Ea l" $# a e i!c ea#i!4l' a##e ti!4 8"%e i! the 8 "+i!ce#. The c"u!t ' i# & actu e$ al"!4 t i7al a!$ eth!ic li!e#. The ce!te ca!!"t h"l$. A&4ha!i#ta! e(ai!# (i e$ i! a!a ch', 7l""$ &eu$# a!$ %eaA, $ece!t ali<e$ ule. U.S. t ""8# #h"ul$ 7e $e8l"'e$ t" $e&e!$ U.S. !ati"!al i!te e#t#. Thei li+e# #h"ul$ !e+e 7e #=ua!$e e$ &" a! e98e i(e!t i! li7e al i!te !ati"!ali#(. I! &act, #uch a 8"lic' i# (" all' 4 "te#=ue a!$ #t ate4icall' ecAle##. M . OCama shouEd =uicAl' FithdraF ("#t U.S. &" ce# & "( A&4ha!i#ta!. A(e ica! ai 8"%e a!$ smaEE5 fEexiCEe SGeAiaE ForAes

units are (" e tha! enough to FiGe out aE ;aeda terrorists! The TaEiCan is too hated to reoAAuGB the AountrB 7 unEess our huge miEitarB a!$ ec"!"(ic footGrint driDes !u(e "u# Afghans into the eDiE, %elc"(i!4 arms of extremists.

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222Afghanistan has deGEeted the US strategiA reserDe of ground forAes Friedman 6 01"1
/Ie" 4e, A(e ica! 8"litical #cie!ti#t. He i# the chie& i!telli4e!ce "&&ice , a!$ CEO "& the 8 i+ate i!telli4e!ce c" 8" ati"! St at&" . ) i" t" St at&" , F ie$(a! #8e!t al("#t t%e!t' 'ea # i! aca$e(ia, teachi!4 8"litical #cie!ce at DicAi!#"! C"lle4e. Du i!4 thi# ti(e, he e4ula l' 7 ie&e$ #e!i" c"((a!$e # i! the a (e$ #e +ice# a# %ell a# the U.S. A (' Ea C"lle4e, RThe 10:Oea Ea i! A&4ha!i#ta!,T St at&" , -L2D,htt8.LL%%%.#t at&" .c"(L%eeAl'L20100-2,M10M'ea M%a Ma&4ha!i#ta!0 The e i# a! a!"(al' i! thi# #t ate4', h"%e+e . Ehe e the U!ite$ State# 8 e+i"u#l' ha$ $e+"l+e$ "8e ati"!al e#8"!#i7ilit' t" allie$ 4 "u8#, " #i(8l' hu!Ae e$ $"%!, thi# #t ate4' t ie# t" etu ! t" $e+"l+e$ e#8"!#i7ilitie# 7' &i #t #u 4i!4 U.S. "8e ati"!#. The &"u th 8ha#e actuall' i!c ea#e# U.S. "8e ati"!al e#8"!#i7ilit' i! " $e t" e$uce it.

From the grand strategiA Goint of DieF5 the United States needs to FithdraF from Afghanistan5 a EandEoAHed AountrB Fhere U!S! forAes are deGendent on tortuous suGGEB Eines! Ehate+e A&4ha!i#ta!F# +a#t (i!e al iche#, (i!i!4 the( i! the (i$#t "& %a i# !"t 4"i!4 t" ha88e!. M" e i(8" ta!t, the U!ite$ State# is oDerAommitted in the region and EaAHs a strategiA reserDe of ground forAes! A&4ha!i#ta! ulti(atel' i# !"t
#t ate4icall' e##e!tial, a!$ thi# i# %h' the U!ite$ State# ha# !"t hi#t" icall' u#e$ it# "%! &" ce# the e. O7a(aF# atte(8t t" etu ! t" that t acA a&te &i #t i!c ea#i!4 U.S. &" ce# t" #et the #ta4e &" the 8"litical #ettle(e!t that %ill all"% a U.S. %ith$ a%al i# ha(8e e$ 7' the !ee$ t" 7e4i! te (i!ati!4 the "8e ati"! 7' 2011 /alth"u4h the e i# !" &i9e$ te (i!ati"! $ate0. It %ill 7e $i&&icult t" $ a% c"aliti"! 8a t!e # i!t" l"cal #t uctu e# %he! the &"u!$ati"! ? U.S. 8 "tecti"! ? i# %ith$ a%i!4. St e!4the!i!4 l"cal &" ce# 7' 2011 %ill 7e $i&&icult. M" e"+e , the Tali7a!F# ("ti+ati"! t" e!te i!t" talA# i# li(ite$ 7' the ea l' %ith$ a%al. At the #a(e ti(e, Fith no ground AomCat strategiA reserDe5 the U!ite$ State# is

DuEneraCEe eEseFhere in the ForEd5 and the Eonger the Afghan draFdoFn taHes5 the more DuEneraCEe it CeAomes /he!ce the 2011 $ea$li!e i! O7a(aF# %a 8la!0. I! #u(, thi# i# the =ua!$a ' i!he e!t i! the #t ate4'. It is neAessarB to FithdraF as earEB as GossiCEe , 7ut ea l'
%ith$ a%al u!$e (i!e# 7"th c"aliti"! 7uil$i!4 a!$ !e4"tiati"!#. The ec uit(e!t a!$ u#e "& i!$i4e!"u# A&4ha! &" ce# (u#t ("+e e9t e(el' a8i$l' t" hit the $ea$li!e /th"u4h "&&iciall' "! t acA =ua!titati+el', the e a e #e i"u# =ue#ti"!# a7"ut =ualitati+e (ea#u e#0 ? he!ce, the a44 e##i+e "8e ati"!# that ha+e 7ee! ("u!te$ "+e ece!t ("!th#. Hut the c" elati"! "& &" ce# i# #uch that the U!ite$ State# 8 "7a7l' %ill !"t 7e a7le t" i(8"#e a! acce8ta7le 8"litical ealit' i! the ti(e & a(e a+aila7le. Thu#, A&4ha! ) e#i$e!t Ha(i$ >a <ai i# #ai$ t" 7e "8e!i!4 cha!!el# $i ectl' t" the Tali7a!, %hile the )aAi#ta!i# a e i!c ea#i!4 thei 8 e#e!ce. Ehe e a +acuu( i# c eate$, e4a $le## "& h"% (uch acti+it' the e i#, #"(e"!e %ill &ill it. The e&" e, the 8 "7le( i# t" $e&i!e h"% i(8" ta!t A&4ha!i#ta! i# t" A(e ica! 4l"7al #t ate4', 7ea i!4 i! (i!$ that the forAes aCsorCed in I a= a!$ Afghanistan haDe Eeft the U!ite$ State# DuEneraCEe eEseFhere in the ForEd. The cu e!t #t ate4' $e&i!e# the I#la(ic %" l$ a# the &"cu# "& all U.S. (ilita ' atte!ti"!. Hut the ForEd has rareEB Ceen so Aonsiderate as to Fait untiE the U !ite$ State# is finished Fith one Far Cefore starting another!

Though unHnoFns remain unHnoFaCEe5 a GrinAiGEe of Farfare is to neDer Aommit aEE of Bour reserDes in a CattEe L one shouEd aEFaBs maintain a reserDe for the unexGeAted! StrategiAaEEB5 it is imGeratiDe that the United States Cegin to free uG forAes and re7estaCEish its ground reserDes!

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222CounterinsurgenAB FiEE oCEiterate AmeriAan GrimaAB (Bne 6 011/

[Da+i$, *ice Chai "& the Utah State Le4i#lati+e C"(8e!#ati"! C"((i##i"! a!$ *ice ) e#i$e!t "& the A##"ciati"! "& the U!ite$ State# A ('G# Utah cha8te a!$ a *ice ) e#i$e!t "& the Salt LaAe T"tal F" ce Cha8te "& the Milita ' O&&ice # A##"ciati"! "& A(e ica, RO7a(a &aili!4 "u t ""8# i! A&4ha!i#ta!,T 11LB, htt8.LL%e#te !& "!ta(e ica.c"(L200DL11L0BL"7a(a:&aili!4:t ""8#:a&4ha!i#ta!L6
Si!ce %e i!+a$e$ I a= #i9 a!$ a hal& 'ea # a4" a!$ A&4ha!i#ta! ei4ht 'ea # a4", %e ha+e l"#t !ea l' B,000 A(e ica! #"l$ie # a!$ c"!t act" # Aille$ i! acti"! %ith te!# "& th"u#a!$# (" e #e+e el' %"u!$e$ at the c"#t "& a t illi"! $"lla # thu# &a . Oct"7e ha# 7ee! the #i!4le $ea$lie#t ("!th &" US &" ce# #i!ce the %a 7e4a!. It #h"ul$!Ft taAe a (ilita ' #t ate4i#t t" eali<e that a&te &i4hti!4 a %a &" "+e ei4ht 'ea # %ith"ut a!' eal i$ea h"% t" %i!, it (i4ht 7e ti(e t" c"!#i$e a $ a#tic cha!4e i! #t ate4'. Thi# #h"ul$ i!clu$e a #"7e a##e##(e!t "& the c"#tL7e!e&it a!al'#i# "& #ta'i!4 a!$ &i4hti!4 at a i#i!4 c"#t i! A(e ica! 7l""$ a!$ t ea#u e +e #u# c"!#e +i!4 "u (ilita ' #t e!4th a!$ 7 i!4i!4 "u t ""8# h"(e t" $e&e!$ A(e ica & "( te " i#t attacA. The S"+iet# &"u4ht a! ei4ht 'ea l"!4 %a i! A&4ha!i#ta! 7e&" e &i!all' eali<i!4 that +ict" ' %a# !"t a 8"##i7ilit' i! a c"!&lict %hich #"(e #a' 7e4a! a chai! "& e+e!t# that e#ulte$ i! the c"lla8#e "& the E+il E(8i e tha!A# t" Rea4a!F# #u88" t "& 8 "9' &" ce# a4ai!#t the S"+iet i!+a$e #. I& the S"+iet U!i"! c"ul$ !"t %i! a&te ei4ht 'ea # "& &i4hti!4 i! A&4ha!i#ta!, %hat (aAe# "u lea$e # thi!A that %e ca!5 The Eonger Fe HeeG la 4e !u(7e # "& "u trooGs fighting !":%i! AounterinsurgenAB Fars "& att iti"! in I a= a!$

Afghanistan5 the FeaHer and more DuEneraCEe Fe FiEE CeAome to the Goint Fhere eDentuaEEB the AmeriAan EmGire, a# #"(e call it, maB $ecli!e 8 eci8it"u#l' " 8e ha8# e+e! AoEEaGse aEtogether. E" #e 'et, A(e icaF#
i!c ea#i!4 (ilita ' %eaA!e## hi4hli4hte$ &u the 7' O7a(aF# "!4"i!4 $e("liti"! "& "u !uclea $ete e!t (i4ht i!+ite a cata#t "8hic attacA & "( "u & "( "u Si!":Ru##ia! allia!ce e!e(ie#. Al ea$' #"(e "& "u eti e$ 4e!e al# ha+e #tate$ that the' 7elie+e "u A (' a!$ Ma i!e C" 8# 4 "u!$ &" ce# ha+e 7ee! 7 "Ae! 7' thei "+e :$e8l"'(e!t i! the $e#e t #a!$# "& I a= a!$ A&4ha!i#ta!. I& the S"+iet U!i"! c"ul$ !"t %i! a&te ei4ht 'ea # "& &i4hti!4 i! A&4ha!i#ta!, %hat (aAe# "u lea$e # thi!A that %e ca!5 The l"!4e %e Aee8 la 4e !u(7e # "& "u t ""8# 7"44e$ $"%! &i4hti!4 t%" !":%i! c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' %a # "& att iti"! i! I a= a!$ A&4ha!i#ta!, the %eaAe a!$ (" e +ul!e a7le %e %ill 7ec"(e t" the 8"i!t %he e e+e!tuall' the A(e ica! E(8i e, a# #"(e call it, (a' $ecli!e 8 eci8it"u#l' " 8e ha8# e+e! c"lla8#e alt"4ethe . E" #e 'et, A(e icaF# i!c ea#i!4 (ilita ' %eaA!e## hi4hli4hte$ &u the 7' O7a(aF# "!4"i!4 $e("liti"! "& "u !uclea $ete e!t, (i4ht i!+ite a cata#t "8hic attacA & "( "u & "( "u Si!":Ru##ia! allia!ce e!e(ie#. Al ea$' #"(e "& "u eti e$ generaEs haDe stated that the' 7elie+e "u A (' a!$ Ma i!e C" 8# ground forAes haDe Ceen

CroHen CB thei oDer7deGEoBment in the $e#e t #a!$# "& I a= a!$ Afghanistan. This high temGo "& $e8l"'(e!t# has resuEted in (uch "& "u miEitarB eJuiGment to CreaH doFn %hile 8 "cu e(e!t a!$ ea$i!e## a e at thei l"%e#t le+el#
"+e the 8a#t =ua te ce!tu '. Ou !ati"!al #ecu it' al%a'# #u&&e # %he! %e 4et 7"44e$ $"%! i! %a # %he e "u t ""8# a e a#Ae$ t" 7lee$ a!$ $ie, 7ut a e !"t 8e (itte$ 7' "u 8"litical lea$e # t" %i!. Ou 7 a+e #"l$ie # #h"ul$ !e+e 7e all"%e$ t" #ac i&ice i! thi# %a' %ith"ut the h"8e "& +ict" 'S The 7e#t %a' t" #u88" t "u t ""8# i# t" 7 i!4 the( h"(e t" thei &a(ilie# a!$ (aAe a c"((it(e!t that %e %ill !"t let a %eeA 4" 7' %ith"ut tha!Ai!4 a #"l$ie &" thei %illi!4!e## t" i#A li&e a!$ li(7 t" $e&e!$ u# all. Ehat i# it 4"i!4 t" taAe t" 4et "u 8"litical lea$e # t" eali<e that the c"#t# "& #ta'i!4 a!$ &i4hti!4 the l"!4 %a i! I a= a!$ A&4ha!i#ta! 4 eatl' "ut%ei4h the c"#t# "& e$e8l"'i!4 "ut "& theate 5 The #a(e +"ice# %e hea calli!4 &" u# t" #e!$ a!"the J0,000 t" 100,000 t ""8# t" A&4ha!i#ta! a e the "!e# that %"ul$ ha+e calle$ &" u# t" Aee8 #u 4i!4 a!$ &i4hti!4 i! *iet!a( i! 8e 8etuit' at the c"#t "& hu!$ e$# "& th"u#a!$# "& "u #"l$ie # li+e#. It $i$!Ft (aAe #e!#e t" $" that the! a!$ it $"e#!Ft (aAe #e!#e t" $" #" !"%. R"!al$ Rea4a! %"! the C"l$ Ea a4ai!#t the E+il S"+iet E(8i e i! 8a t 7' e(8l"'i!4 8 "9ie# t" &i4ht a!$ %i! "u 7attle# &" u#. Ee !ee$ t" lea ! & "( Rea4a! a!$ e: e(8l"' a #t ate4' "& a (i!4 a!$ #u88" ti!4 8 "9ie# 7"th #tate# a!$ i!#u 4e!t ("+e(e!t# t" &i4ht "u %a # #" "u t ""8# $"!Ft ha+e t". A(e ica !ee$# t" c"!#e +e it# (ilita ' #t e!4th &" a ti(e %he! %e the' (a' 7e calle$ u8"! t" &i4ht 4 eat 8"%e e!e(ie#, !"t %a#te it 7"44e$ $"%! &i4hti!4 *iet!a(# i! the $e#e t a# %e ha+e 7ee! $"i!4 the 8a#t #e+e al 'ea #. UntiE Fe do5 Fe FiEE remain in a

state of imGeriaE oDerstretAh and strategiA GaraEBsis Fith no reserDe forAes t" &i4ht !e% h'8"thetical %a # "& !ece##it' a!$ %ith a c"!ti!ui!4 %i!$"% "& +ul!e a7ilit' FhiAh our enemies FiEE u!$"u7te$l' Aontinue to exGEoit. N" th
>" ea ha# al ea$' 7ee! e98l"iti!4 "u %i!$"% "& +ul!e a7ilit' %ith thei "!4"i!4 !uclea (i##ile 7uil$u8 a# ha# the I#la(ic Re8u7lic "& I a! i# $"i!4 %ith it# !ea i((i!e!t $e+el"8(e!t "& %ea8"!i<e$ !uAe#. E+e! Ru##ia ha# $"!e #" %ith thei i!+a#i"! "& US:all' Ie" 4ia thi# 8a#t 'ea .

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222HegemonB HeB to GreDenting ForEd Fars ThaBer 6 0119

[H a$le', 8 "&e##" "& #ecu it' #tu$ie# at Mi##"u i State, The Nati"!al I!te e#t, RI! De&e!#e "& ) i(ac'T, N"+e(7e LDece(7e , 8. 12:1B6
A 4 a!$ #t ate4' 7a#e$ "! A(e ica! 8 i(ac' (ea!# e!#u i!4 the U!ite$ State# #ta'# the %" l$G# !u(7e "!e 8"%e :the $i8l"(atic, ec"!"(ic a!$ (ilita ' lea$e . Th"#e a 4ui!4 a4ai!#t 8 i(ac' clai( that the U!ite$ State# #h"ul$ et e!ch, eithe 7ecau#e the U!ite$ State# lacA# the 8"%e t" (ai!tai! it# 8 i(ac' a!$ #h"ul$ %ith$ a% & "( it# 4l"7al c"((it(e!t#, " 7ecau#e the (ai!te!a!ce "& 8 i(ac' %ill lea$ the U!ite$ State# i!t" the t a8 "& Ki(8e ial "+e #t etch.K I! the 8 e+i"u# i##ue "& The Nati"!al I!te e#t, Ch i#t"8he La'!e %a !e$ "& the#e $a!4e # "& 8 i(ac' a!$ calle$ &" et e!ch(e!t.1 Th"#e a 4ui!4 &" a 4 a!$ #t ate4' "& et e!ch(e!t a e a $i+e #e l"t. The' i!clu$e i#"lati"!i#t#, %h" %a!t !" &" ei4! (ilita ' c"((it(e!t#N #electi+e e!4a4e #, %h" %a!t U.S. (ilita ' c"((it(e!t# t" ce!te # "& ec"!"(ic (i4htN a!$

retrenAhment FouEd Eead to far greater instaCiEitB and Far in the ForEd
"&&#h" e 7ala!ce #, %h" %a!t a ("$i&ie$ &" ( "& #electi+e e!4a4e(e!t that %"ul$ ha+e the U!ite$ State# a7a!$"! it# la!$8"%e 8 e#e!ce a7 "a$ i! &a+" "& el'i!4 "! ai 8"%e a!$ #ea8"%e t" $e&e!$ it# i!te e#t#. Hut

, i! a!' "& it# 4ui#e#, (u#t 7e a+"i$e$. I& the U!ite$ State# a$"8te$ #uch a #t ate4', it %"ul$ 7e a 8 "&"u!$ #t ate4ic (i#taAe that

, i(8e il A(e ica! #ecu it' a!$ $e!' the U!ite$ State# a!$ it# allie# the 7e!e&it# "& 8 i(ac'. The e a e t%" c itical i##ue# i! a!' $i#cu##i"! "& A(e icaG# 4 a!$ #t ate4'. Ca! A(e ica

e(ai! the

$"(i!a!t #tate5 Sh"ul$ it #t i+e t" $" thi#5 A(e ica ca! e(ai! $"(i!a!t $ue t" it# 8 "$i4i"u# (ilita ', ec"!"(ic a!$ #"&t 8"%e ca8a7ilitie#. The t"talit' "& that e=uati"! "& 8"%e a!#%e # the &i #t i##ue. The U!ite$ State# ha# "+e %hel(i!4 (ilita ' ca8a7ilitie# a!$ %ealth i! c"(8a i#"! t" "the #tate# " liAel' 8"te!tial allia!ce#. Ha i!4 #"(e $i#a#te " t e(e!$"u# &"ll', that %ill e(ai! the ca#e &" the &" e#eea7le &utu e. Eith &e% e9ce8ti"!#, e+e! th"#e %h" a$+"cate et e!ch(e!t acA!"%le$4e thi#. S" the $e7ate e+"l+e# a "u!$ the $e#i a7ilit' "& (ai!tai!i!4 A(e ica! 8 i(ac'. ) "8"!e!t# "& et e!ch(e!t &"cu# a 4 eat $eal "! the c"#t# "& U.S. acti"! 7ut the' &all t" eali<e %hat i# 4""$ a7"ut A(e ica! 8 i(ac'. The 8 ice a!$ i#A# "& 8 i(ac' a e e8" te$ i! !e%#8a8e # e+e ' $a'N the 7e!e&it# that #te( & "( it a e !"t. A IRAND #t ate4' "& e!#u i!4 A(e ica! 8 i(ac' taAe# a# it# #ta ti!4 8"i!t the 8 "tecti"! "& the U.S. h"(ela!$ a!$ A(e ica! 4l"7al i!te e#t#. The#e i!te e#t# i!clu$e e!#u i!4 that c itical e#"u ce# liAe "il &l"% a "u!$ the %" l$, that the 4l"7al t a$e a!$ ("!eta ' e4i(e# &l"u i#h a!$ that Ea#hi!4t"!G# %" l$%i$e !et%" A "& allie# i# ea##u e$ a!$ 8 "tecte$. Allie# a e a 4 eat a##et t" the U!ite$ State#, i! 8a t 7ecau#e

threats FiEE exist no matter Fhat roEe AmeriAa Ahooses to GEaB 4ashington Aannot AaEE a Otime outO5 and it Aannot hide from threats Gredators Grefer to eat the FeaH rather than Aonfront the strong AonDentionaE miEitarB GoFer is Fhat GroteAts the AountrB from suAh threats. This reJuires a GhBsiAaE5 on7the7ground GresenAe that Aannot Ce aAhieDed CB offshore CaEanAing
the' #h"ul$e #"(e "& it# 7u $e!#. Thu#, it i# !" #u 8 i#e t" #ee NATO i! A&4ha!i#ta! " the Au#t alia!# i! Ea#t Ti(" . I! c"!t a#t, a #t ate4' 7a#e$ "! et e!ch(e!t %ill !"t 7e a7le t" achie+e the#e &u!$a(e!tal "7@ecti+e# "& the U!ite$ State#. I!$ee$, et e!ch(e!t %ill (aAe the U!ite$ State# le## #ecu e tha! the 8 e#e!t 4 a!$ #t ate4' "& 8 i(ac'. Thi# i# 7ecau#e i! i!te !ati"!al 8"litic#.

. Ehethe

the' a e te " i#t#, "4ue #tate# " i#i!4 8"%e #, hi#t" ' #h"%# that th eat# (u#t 7e c"!& "!te$. Si(8l' 7' $ecla i!4 that the U!ite$ State# i# K4"i!4 h"(eK, thu# a7a!$"!i!4 it# c"((it(e!t# " (aAi!4 u!c"!+i!ci!4 hal&:8le$4e# t" $e&e!$ it# i!te e#t# a!$ allie#, $"e# !"t (ea! that "the # %ill e#8ect A(e ica!

%i#he# t" et eat. T" (aAe #uch a $ecla ati"! i(8lie# %eaA!e## a!$ e(7"l$e!# a44 e##i"!. I! the a!a chic %" l$ "& the a!i(al Ai!4$"(,

. The #a(e i# t ue "& the

a!a chic %" l$ "& i!te !ati"!al 8"litic#. I& the e i# !" $i8l"(atic #"luti"! t" the th eat# that c"!& "!t the U!ite$ State#, the! the

a!$ #t ate4ic

"& the U!ite$ State#

A!$ %he! e!e(ie# (u#t 7e c"!& "!te$, a #t ate4' 7a#e$ "! 8 i(ac' &"cu#e# "! e!4a4i!4 e!e(ie# "+e #ea#, a%a' & "( .A(e ica! #"il. I!$ee$, a Ae' te!et "& the Hu#h D"ct i!e i# t" attacA te " i#t# &a & "( A(e icaG# #h" e# a!$ !"t t" %ait %hile the' u#e 7a#e# i! "the c"u!t ie# t" 8la! a!$ t ai! &" attacA# a4ai!#t the U!ite$ State# it#el&.

! I!$ee$, a# Ha ' )"#e! ha# !"te$, U.S. 8 i(ac' i# #ecu e$

7ecau#e A(e ica, at 8 e#e!t, c"((a!$# the K4l"7al c"(("!K::the "cea!#, the %" l$G# ai #8ace a!$ "ute #8ace:all"%i!4 the U!ite$ State# t" 8 "@ect it# 8"%e &a & "( it# 7" $e #, %hile $e!'i!4 th"#e c"(("! a+e!ue# t" it# e!e(ie#. A# a c"!#e=ue!ce, the c"#t# "& 8"%e 8 "@ecti"! &" the U!ite$ State# a!$ it# allie# a e e$uce$, a!$ the "7u#t!e## "& the U!ite$ State#G c"!+e!ti"!al a!$ #t ate4ic $ete e!t ca 8a7ilitie# i# i!c ea#e$.G Thi# i# !"t a! a$+a!ta4e that #h"ul$ 7e eli!=ui#he$ li4htl'. A e(a Aa7le &act a7"ut i!te !ati"!al 8"litic# t"$a'::i! a %" l$ %he e A(e ica! 8 i(ac' i# clea l' a!$ u!a(7i4u"u#l' "! $i#8la'::i# that c"u!t ie# %a!t t" ali4! the(#el+e# %ith the U!ite$ State#. O& c"u #e, thi# i# !"t "ut "& a!' #e!#e "& alt ui#(, i! ("#t ca#e#, 7ut 7ecau#e $"i!4 #" all"%# the( t" u#e the 8"%e "& the U!ite$ State# &" thei "%! 8u 8"#e#, thei "%! 8 "tecti"!, " t" 4ai! 4 eate i!&lue!ce. O& 1D2 c"u!t ie#, ,J a e allie$ %ith A(e ica::thei #ecu it' i# tie$ t" the U!ite$ State# th "u4h t eatie# a!$ "the i!&" (al a a!4e(e!t#:a!$ the' i!clu$e al("#t all "& the (a@" ec"!"(ic a!$ (ilita ' 8"%e #. That i# a ati" "& al("#t 1B t" "!e /,3 t" &i+e0, a!$ a 7i4 cha!4e & "( the C"l$ Ea %he! the ati" %a# a7"ut 1., t" "!e "& #tate# ali4!e$ %ith the

U!ite$ State# +e #u# the S"+iet U!i"!. Ne+e 7e&" e i! it# hi#t" ' ha# thi# c"u!t ', " a!' c"u!t ', ha$ #" (a!' allie#.

U!S! GrimaAB

::a!$ the 7a!$%a4"!i!4 e&&ect:

"& #tate# a!$ i!te !ati"!al i!#tituti"!#. Such i!&lue!ce c"(e# i! (a!' &" (#, "!e "& %hich i# A(e icaG# a7ilit' t" c eate c"aliti"!# "& liAe:(i!$e$ #tate# t" & ee >"#"+", #ta7ili<e A&4ha!i#ta!, i!+a$e I a= "

has aEso giDen us extensiDe infEuenAe to stoG GroEiferation

i! i!te !ati"!al 8"litic#, all"%i!4 the U!ite$ State# t" #ha8e the 7eha+i"

th "u4h the ) "li&e ati"! Secu it' I!itiati+e /)SI0. D"i!4 #" all"%# the U!ite$ State# t" "8e ate %ith allie# "ut#i$e "& the %he e it ca!

7e #t'(ie$ 7' "88"!e!t#. A(e ica!:le$ %a # i! >"#"+", A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ I a= #ta!$ i! c"!t a#t t" the UNG# i!a7ilit' t" #a+e the 8e"8le "& Da &u " e+e! t" c"!$uct a!' (ilita ' ca(8ai4! t" eali<e the 4"al# "& it# cha te . The =uiet e&&ecti+e!e## "& the )SI i! $i#(a!tli!4 Li7'aG# EMD 8 "4 a(# a!$ u! a+eli!4 the A. ;. >ha! 8 "li&e ati"! !et%" A a e i! #ha 8 elie& t" the t'8icall' t""thle## atte(8t# 7' the UN t" halt 8 "li&e ati"!. O"u ca! c"u!t %ith "!e ha!$ c"u!t ie# "88"#e$ t" the U!ite$ State#. The' a e the KIa!4 "& Fi+eK. Chi!a, Cu7a, I a!, N" th >" ea a!$ *e!e<eula. O& c"u #e, c"u!t ie# liAe I!$ia, &" e9a(8le, $" !"t a4 ee %ith all 8"lic' ch"ice# (a$e 7' the U!ite$ State#, #uch a# t"%a $ I a!, 7ut Ne% Delhi i# & ie!$l' t" Ea#hi!4t"!. O!l' the KIa!4 "& Fi+eK (a' 7e e98ecte$ t" c"!#i#te!tl' e#i#t the a4e!$a a!$ ac : ti"!# "& the U!ite$ State#. Chi!a i# clea l' the ("#t i(8" ta!t "& the#e #tate# 7ecau#e it i# a i#i!4 4 eat 8"%e . Hut e+e! Hei@i!4 i# i!ti(i$ate$ 7' the U!ite$ State# a!$ e& ai!# & "( "8e!l' challe!4i!4 U.S. 8"%e . Chi!a 8 "clai(# that it %ill, i& !ece##a ', e #" t t" "the (echa!i#(# "& challe!4i!4 the U!ite$ State#, i!clu$i!4 a#'((et ic #t ate4ie# #uch a# ta 4eti!4 c"((u!icati"! a!$ i!telli4e!ce #atellite# u8"! %hich the U!ite$ State# $e8e!$#. Hut Chi!a (a' !"t 7e c"!&i$e!t th"#e #t ate4ie# %"ul$ %" A, a!$ #" it i# liAel' t" e& ai! & "( te#ti!4 the U!ite$ State# $i ectl' &" the &" e#eea7le &utu e 7ecau#e Chi!aG# 8"%e 7e!e&it#, a# %e #hall #ee, & "( the i!te !ati"!al " $e U.S. 8 i(ac' c eate#. The "the #tate# a e &a %eaAe tha! Chi!a. F" th ee "& the KIa!4 "& Fi+eK ca#e# ::*e!e<uela, I a!, Cu7a:it i# a! a!ti:U.S. e4i(e that i# the #"u ce "& the 8 "7le(N the c"u!t ' it#el& i# !"t i!t i!#icall' a!ti:A(e ica!. I!$ee$, a cha!4e "& e4i(e i! Ca aca#, Teh a! " Ha+a!a c"ul$ +e ' %ell e" ie!t elati"!#.

EDerBthing Fe thinH of Fhen Fe Aonsider the Aurrent internationaE order7free trade5 a roCust monetarB regime human rights5 groFing demoAratiIation77is direAtEB EinHed to U!S! GoFer AGGaEEing things haGGen Fhen internationaE orders AoEEaGse! The DarH Ages HitEer 4ithout U!S! GoFer5 the EiCeraE order Areated CB the United S FiEE end AmeriAan GrimaAB HeeG AomGEiAated reEationshiGs aEigned77CetFeen GreeAe and TurHeB5 IsraeE and EgBGt5 South ,orea and :aGan5 India and (aHistan5 Indonesia and AustraEia a (ax AmeriAana does reduAe GartiAuEarEB great GoFer Fars. AmeriAan GoFer giDes the U S the aCiEitB to sGread demoAraAB onAe states are goDerned demoAratiAaEEB5 the EiHeEihood of anB tBGe of AonfEiAt is signifiAantEB reduAed CeAause theB are more oGen5 more transGarent and more EiHeEB to Fant to resoEDe things amiAaCEB
THROUIHOUT HISTORO, 8eace a!$ #ta7ilit' ha+e 7ee! 4 eat 7e!e&it# "& a! e a %he e the e %a# a $"(i!a!t 8"%e ::R"(e, H itai! " the U!ite$ State# t"$a'. Sch"la # a!$ #tate#(e! ha+e l"!4 ec"4!i<e$ the i e!ic e&&ect "& 8"%e "! the a!a chic %" l$ "& i!te !ati"!al 8"litic#. , i!c ea#i!4 e#8ect &"

. Ret e!ch(e!t 8 "8"!e!t# #ee( t" thi!A that the cu

e!t #'#te( ca! 7e (ai!tai!e$ %ith"ut the cu e!t a("u!t "& U.S. 8"%e 7ehi!$ it. I! that the' a e $ea$ % "!4 a!$ !ee$ t" 7e e(i!$e$ "& "!e "& hi#t" 'G# ("#t #i4!i&ica!t

le##"!#.

&"ll"%e$ R"(eG# c"lla8#e.

#uccee$e$ the " $e e#ta7li#he$ at *e #aille#.

tate#

@u#t a# a##u e$l'. A# c"u!t ' a!$ %e#te ! 4 eat Rai D"!!e #a!4. KO"u $"!Gt A!"% %hat '"uG+e 4"t /u!til '"u l"#e it0.K C"!#e=ue!tl', it i#

i(8" ta!t t" !"te %hat th"#e 4""$ thi!4# a e. I! a$$iti"! t" e!#u i!4 the #ecu it' "& the U!ite$ State# a!$ it# allie#, A(e ica! 8 i(ac' %ithi! the i!te !ati"!al #'#te( cau#e# (a!' 8"#iti+e "utc"(e# &" Ea#hi!4t"! a!$ the %" l$.

The &i #t ha# 7ee! a (" e 8eace&ul %" l$. Du i!4 the C"l$ Ea , U.S. lea$e #hi8 e$uce$ & icti"! a("!4 (a!' #tate# that %e e hi#t" ical a!ta4"!i#t#, ("#t !"ta7l' F a!ce a!$ Ee#t Ie (a!'. T"$a',

hel8#

a !u(7e "&

. Thi# i# !"t t" #a' it &ul&ill# E""$ "% Eil#"!G# +i#i"! "& e!$i!4 all %a . Ea # #till "ccu %he e Ea#hi!4t"!G# i!te e#t# a e !"t #e i"u#l' th eate!e$, #uch a# i! Da &u , 7ut

%a G# liAelih""$,

%a G# %" #t &" (.

Sec"!$,

!ite$

tate#

a!$ "the ele(e!t# "& it# i$e"l"4' "& li7e ali#(. D"i!4 #" i# a #"u ce "& (uch 4""$ &" the c"u!t ie# c"!ce !e$ a# %ell a# the U!ite$ State# 7ecau#e, a# J"h!

O%e! !"te$ "! the#e 8a4e# i! the S8 i!4 200- i##ue, li7e al $e("c acie# a e (" e liAel' t" ali4! %ith the U!ite$ State# a!$ 7e #'(8athetic t" the A(e ica! %" l$+ie%.1 S", #8 ea$i!4 $e("c ac' hel8# (ai!tai! U.S. 8 i(ac'. I! a$$iti"!,

. Thi# i# !"t 7ecau#e $e("c acie# $" !"t ha+e cla#hi!4 i!te e#t#. I!$ee$ the' $". Rathe , it i#

i! c"!cu e!ce %ith U.S. lea$e #hi8. A!$ #", i! 4e!e al, $e("c atic #tate# a e 4""$ &" thei citi<e!# a# %ell a# &" a$+a!ci!4

the i!te e#t# "& the U!ite$ State#. C itic# ha+e &aulte$ the Hu#h A$(i!i#t ati"! &" atte(8ti!4 t" #8 ea$ $e("c ac' i! the Mi$$le Ea#t, la7eli!4 #uch a! e&&" t a ("$e ! &" ( "& tilti!4 at %i!$(ill#. It i# the "7li4ati"! "& Hu#hG# c itic# t" e98lai! %h' $e("c ac' i# 4""$ e!"u4h &" Ee#te ! #tate# 7ut !"t &" the e#t, a!$, "!e 4athe # & "( the a 4u(e!t, #h"ul$ !"t e+e! 7e atte(8te$. O& c"u #e, %hethe $e("c ac' i! the Mi$$le Ea#t %ill ha+e a 8eace&ul " #ta7ili<i!4 i!&lue!ce "! A(e icaG# i!te e#t# i! the #h" t u! i# "8e! t" =ue#ti"!. )e ha8# $e("c atic A a7 #tate# %"ul$ 7e (" e "88"#e$ t" I# ael, 7ut !"!ethele##, thei 8e"8le %"ul$ 7e 7ette "&&. The U!ite$ State# ha# 7 "u4ht $e("c ac' t" A&4ha!i#ta!, %he e ,.3 (illi"! A&4ha!#, J0 8e ce!t "& the( %"(e!, +"te$ i! a c itical Oct"7e 200J electi"!, e+e! th"u4h e(!a!t Tali7a! &" ce# th eate!e$ the(. The &i #t & ee electi"!# %e e hel$ i! I a= i! Ja!ua ' 2003. It %a# the (ilita ' 8"%e "& the U!ite$ State# that 8ut I a= "! the 8ath t" $e("c ac'. Ea#hi!4t"! &"#te e$ $e("c atic 4"+e !(e!t# i! Eu "8e, Lati! A(e ica, A#ia a!$ the Cauca#u#. N"% e+e! the Mi$$le Ea#t i# i!c ea#i!4l' $e("c atic. The' (a' !"t 'et l""A liAe Ee#te !:#t'le $e("c acie#, 7ut $e("c atic 8 "4 e## ha# 7ee! (a$e i! Al4e ia, M" "cc", Le7a!"!, I a=, >u%ait, the )ale#ti!ia! Auth" it' a!$ E4'8t. H' all acc"u!t#, the (a ch "& $e("c ac' ha# 7ee! i(8 e##i+e.

4ith its aEEies5 the U S has EaCored to Areate an eAonomiAaEEB EiCeraE ForEdFide netForH AharaAteriIed CB free trade and AommerAe5 resGeAt for internationaE GroGertB rights5 and moCiEitB of AaGitaE and EaCor marHets This forAes industries to Ce AomGetitiDe5 maximiIes effiAienAies and groFth5 and Cenefits defense as FeEE CeAause the siIe of the eAonomB maHes the defense Curden manageaCEe the onEB FaB to Cring reEief to desGerateEB Goor Aountries of the Third 4orEd is through the adoGtion of free marHet eAonomiA GoEiAies and gEoCaEiIation5 FhiAh are faAiEitated through AmeriAan GrimaAB
Thi $, al"!4 %ith the 4 "%th i! the !u(7e "& $e("c atic #tate# a "u!$ the %" l$ ha# 7ee! the 4 "%th "& the 4l"7al ec"!"('.

!ite$

tate#

. The ec"!"(ic #ta7ilit' a!$ 8 "#8e it' that #te(# & "( thi# ec"!"(ic " $e i# a 4l"7al 8u7lic 4""$ & "( %hich all #tate# 7e!e&it, 8a ticula l' the 8"" e#t #tate# i! the Thi $ E" l$. The U!ite$ State# c eate$ thi# !et%" A !"t "ut "& alt ui#( 7ut &" the 7e!e&it

a!$ the ec"!"(ic %ell:7ei!4 "& A(e ica.

ec"!"(ic " $e

A(e ica!

. Ec"!"(ic #8i!:"&&# &"#te the $e+el"8(e!t "& (ilita ' tech!"l"4', hel8i!4 t"

e!#u e (ilita ' 8 "%e##. )e ha8# the 4 eate#t te#ta(e!t t" the 7e!e&it# "& the ec"!"(ic !et%" A c"(e# & "( Dee8aA Lal, a &" (e I!$ia! &" ei4! #e +ice $i8l"(at a!$ e#ea che at the E" l$ Ha!A, %h" #ta te$ hi# ca ee c"!&i$e!t i! the #"ciali#t i$e"l"4' "& 8"#t:i!$e8e!$e!ce I!$ia. A7a!$"!i!4 the 8"#iti"!# "& hi# '"uth, Lal !"% ec"4!i<e# that

.J A# a %it!e## t" the &aile$ alte !ati+e ec"!"(ic #'#te(#, Lal i# "!e "& the #t "!4e#t

aca$e(ic 8 "8"!e!t# "& A(e ica! 8 i(ac' $ue t" the ec"!"(ic 8 "#8e it' it 8 "+i$e#.

*"

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

.....SO)%ENC' E TENSIONS.....

*0

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222The GEan soEDes 6 reduAing to a Aounterterrorism foAus Areates sustainaCEe GresenAe5 and GreDents DaAiEEations CetFeen engagement and isoEationism SteFart 6 011/
[R'a! Fa(il' ) "&e##" "& the ) actice "& Hu(a! Ri4ht# a!$ Di ect" "& the Ca Ce!te &" Hu(a! Ri4ht# )"lic', #tu$ie$ at O9&" $ a!$ #e +e$ 7 ie&l' i! the H iti#h a (' 7e&" e %" Ai!4 i! the $i8l"(atic #e +ice i! I!$"!e#ia a!$ a# H iti#h e8 e#e!tati+e t" M"!te!e4 " /DL1-L0D, R" ', RThe Futu e "& A&4ha!i#ta!,T htt8.LL%%%.hA#.ha +a $.e$uL!e%#: e+e!t#L!e%#Lte#ti("!ie#L " ':#te%a t:"!:a&4ha!i#ta!6

The Cest Afghan GoEiAB FouEd Ce to reduAe the !u(7e "& &" ei4! trooGs from the cu e!t le+el "& /15111 to &a &e%e 2 8e ha8# 015111. I! that ca#e, t%" $i#ti!ct "7@ecti+e# %"ul$ e(ai! &" the i!te !ati"!al c"((u!it'. $e+el"8(e!t a!$ c"u!te : te " i#(. Neithe %"ul$ a("u!t t" the 7uil$i!4 "& a! A&4ha! #tate " %i!!i!4 a c"u!te :i!#u 4e!c' ca(8ai4!. A reduAtion in trooG numCers and a turn aFaB from state7CuiEding shouEd not mean totaE FithdraFaE& good GroNeAts AouEd Aontinue to Ce undertaHen in eEeAtriAitB5 Fater5 irrigation5 heaEth5 eduAation5 agriAuEture5 ruraE deDeEoGment a!$ i! "the a ea# &a+"u e$ 7' $e+el"8(e!t a4e!cie#. EDen a Eight US GresenAe AouEd Aontinue to aEEoF for aggressiDe oGerations against AE ;aeda terrorists5 in Afghanistan, %h"
8la! t" attacA the U!ite$ State#. The US ha# #ucce##&ull' 8 e+e!t Al ;ae$a & "( e:e#ta7li#hi!4 it#el& #i!ce 2001 /th"u4h the e#ult ha# "!l' 7ee! t" ("+e 7i! La$e! ac "## the 7" $e .0. The US (ilita ' c"ul$ al#" /%ith "the &" (# "& a##i#ta!ce0 #u88" t the A&4ha! (ilita ' t" 8 e+e!t the Tali7a! & "( #ei<i!4 a cit' " taAi!4 "+e the c"u!t '. The#e t%i! "7@ecti+e# %ill e=ui e a +e ' l"!4:te ( 8 e#e!ce, a# i!$ee$ i# al("#t i!e+ita7le i! a c"u!t ' %hich i# a# 8"" , a# & a4ile a!$ t au(ati<e$ a# A&4ha!i#ta! /a!$ %hich lacA# the i!te !al ca8acit' at the ("(e!t t" 7ec"(e i!$e8e!$e!t "& F" ei4! ai$ " c"!t "l it# te it" '0. Hut a l"!4:te ( 8 e#e!ce %ill i! tu ! (ea! a (uch li4hte a!$ (" e li(ite$ 8 e#e!ce /i& it i# t" etai! US $"(e#tic #u88" t0. Ee #h"ul$ !"t c"!t "l a!$ ca!!"t 8 e$ict the &utu e "& A&4ha!i#ta!. It (a' i! the &utu e 7ec"(e (" e +i"le!t, " &i!$ a $ece!t ali#e$ e=uili7 iu( " a !e% !ati"!al u!it', 7ut i& it# c"((u!itie# c"!ti!ue t" %a!t t" %" A %ith u#, %e ca!, "+e 10 'ea #, e!c"u a4e the (" e 8"#iti+e t e!$# i! A&4ha! #"ciet' a!$ hel8 t" c"!tai! the (" e !e4ati+e. Such a 8"lic' ca! #ee( #t ai!e$, u! eali#tic, c"u!te :i!tuiti+e a!$ u!a88eali!4. The' a88ea t" 7et a' the h"8e# "& A&4ha!# %h" t u#te$ u# a!$ t" all"% the Tali7a! t" a7u#e $i#t ict t"%!#. N" 8"liticia! %a!t# t" 7e 8e cei+e$ t" ha+e u!$e e#ti(ate$, " &aile$ t" a$$ e##, a te " i#t th eatN " t" % ite "&& the P7l""$ a!$ t ea#u eF that %e ha+e #u!A i!t" A&4ha!i#ta!N " t" a$(it $e&eat. A(e ica!# a e 8a ticula l' u!%illi!4 t" 7elie+e that 8 "7le(# a e i!#"lu7leN O7a(aF# ("tt" i# !"t P!" %e ca!FtFN #"l$ie # a e !"t t ai!e$ t" a$(it $e&eat " t" #a' a (i##i"! i# i(8"##i7le. A!$ t" #u44e#t that %hat %" Ae$ i! I a= %"!Ft %" A i! A&4ha!i#ta! e=ui e# a $etaile$ A!"%le$4e "& each c"u!t 'F# 8a#t, a 7"l$ a!al'#i# "& the cau#e# "& $e+el"8(e!t a!$ a i4" "u# e98"#iti"! "& the $i&&e e!ce#, &" %hich &e% ha+e 8atie!ce. The greatest risH of our infEated amCitions a!$ &ea #, e!ca8#ulate$ in the Aurrent surge is that it FiEE

aAhieDe the exaAt oGGosite of its intentions and in faAt GreAiGitate a totaE FithdraFaE! The heaDier our footGrint5 and the more AostEB5 the Eess Fe are EiHeEB to Ce aCEe to sustain it! (uCEiA oGinion is aEreadB turning against it. Nat" allie# a e ("#tl' #ta'i!4 i! A&4ha!i#ta! #i(8l' t" 8lea#e the U!ite$ State# a!$ ha+e little
c"!&i$e!ce i! "u "7@ecti+e# " "u ea#"!#. C"!te(8" a ' 8"litical cultu e te!$# t" e!c"u a4e 7lacA a!$ %hite #"luti"!#. eithe %e 4a i#"! " %e a7a!$"!. Ehile, I #t "!4l' "88"#e t ""8 i!c ea#e#, I e=uall' #t "!4l' "88"#e a t"tal &li4ht. 4e are AurrentEB in danger of EurAhing

from trooG inAreases to FithdraFaE and from engagement to isoEation! 4e are threatening to GroDide instant eEeAtro7shoAH theraGB foEEoFed CB aCandonment! This is the East thing Afghanistan needs. The i!te !ati"!al c"((u!it' #h"ul$ ai( t" 8 "+i$e a 8atie!t, t"le a!t l"!4:te ( elati"!#hi8 %ith a c"u!t ' a# 8"" a!$
t au(ati<e$ a# A&4ha!i#ta!. Ju$4i!4 7' c"(8a a7le c"u!t ie# i! the $e+el"8i!4 %" l$ /a!$ A&4ha!i#ta! i# +e ' !ea the 7"tt"( "& the UN Hu(a! De+el"8(e!t i!$e90, (aAi!4 A&4ha!i#ta! (" e #ta7le, 8 "#8e "u# a!$ hu(a!e i# a 8 "@ect %hich %ill taAe $eca$e#. It i# a %" th%hile 8 "@ect i! the l"!4:te ( &" u# a!$ &" A&4ha!# 7ut Fe FiEE onEB Ce aCEe to sustain our GresenAe if Fe

massiDeEB reduAe our inDestment a!$ "u a(7iti"!# a!$ 7e4i! t" a88 "ach A&4ha!i#ta! (" e a# %e $" "the 8"" c"u!t ie# i! the $e+el"8i!4 %" l$! The Cest FaB of aDoiding the mistaHes of the 1D,0# a!$ "//1s 2 the &a(ilia ABAEe of inDestment and aCandonment FhiAh most Afghan exGeAt and fear and FhiAh haDe AontriCuted so muAh to instaCiEitB and danger 7 is to hu#7a!$ a!$ c"!#e +e "u e#"u ce#5 Eimit our oCNeAtiDes to Aounter7 terrorism a!$ hu(a!ita ia! a##i#ta!ce a!$ ForH out hoF to ForH Fith feFer trooGs a!$ le## ("!e' "+e a l"!4e
8e i"$. I! A&4ha!i#ta! i! the l"!4:te (, le## %ill 7e (" e.

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222ConfEating Aounterterrorism and AounterinsurgenAB = faiEure> GEan soEDes $oBEe 6 01"1

[Michael J., Lectu e i! I!te !ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#ea ch Fell"% at the Ce!t e &" the Stu$' "& Te " i#( a!$ )"litical *i"le!ce at the U!i+e #it' "& St A!$ e%#, I!te !ati"!al A&&ai # ,-. 2 /20100 1112131 D" c"u!te te " i#( a!$ c"u!te i!#u 4e!c' 4" t"4ethe 56 At the 8"litical le+el, h"%e+e , the effeAts of the AonfEation of Aounterterrorism and AounterinsurgenAB are 8e ha8# (" e serious. O!e "& the u!&" tu!ate 7':8 "$uct# "& the e98e ie!ce "& the la#t ei4ht 'ea #, %hich ha# #ee! t%" (a@" !ati"!al i!#u 4e!cie# c"!$ucte$ c"!cu e!tl' %ith a 4l"7al #t u44le a4ai!#t Al:;ae$a, i# that 8"lic':(aAe # ha+e 7e4u! t" c"!clu$e /a# Mili7a!$ $i$0 that c"u!te te " i#( i# c"u!te i!#u 4e!c'. The $a!4e # "& #uch a 8"#iti"! a e (a!i&e#t.

To treat eDerB terrorist threat through the Eens of AounterinsurgenAB is to Aommit the US to undertaHing AountEess state7CuiEding missions aCroad5 often Fith Eimited GrosGeAts of suAAess . To treat eDerB insurgenAB as the GotentiaE inAuCator of a future terrorist threat is a reAiGe for oDerextension5 distraAtion and exhaustion. The struggEe Fith AE7;aeda Aan Ce Fon onEB if the US HeeGs sight of its Griorities and aDoids entangEing itseEf in an eDer7inAreasing numCer of distant AonfEiAts! $ut it FiEE AertainEB Ce Eost if the US exhausts itseEfLfinanAiaEEB5 miEitariEB5 eDen moraEEB LCB foreDer sAanning the horiIon for neF monsters to destroB.D1

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222Counterterrorism soEDes faiEures of AounterinsurgenAB NeEson 6 011/

/RicA, &" (e $i ect" "& a J"i!t Ta#A F" ce i! #u88" t "& O8e ati"! E!$u i!4 F ee$"(, eti e$ !a+al "&&ice %ith a##i4!(e!t# at the Nati"!al C"u!te te " i#( Ce!te a!$ Nati"!al Secu it' C"u!cil, a!$ Se!i" Fell"% at the I!te !ati"!al Secu it' ) "4 a( at the Ce!te &" St ate4ic a!$ I!te !ati"!al Stu$ie# , RThe Othe Si$e "& the COINT, 10L1, htt8.LLc#i#." 4L8u7licati"!L"the :#i$e:c"i!0 ;0& So hoF shouEd the United States aGGroaAh the FarV A0& Ee !ee$ t" e& a(e "u thi!Ai!4 a7"ut U.S. 4"al# a!$ the (ea!# t" achie+e the(. A# "utli!e$ a7"+e, COIN i! A&4ha!i#ta! i# "!l' te!u"u#l' li!Ae$ t" c"u!te te " i#(, the " i4i!al 8u 8"#e "& "u e&&" t#. The OCama

administration shouEd imGEement a more minimaEist GoEiAB in the region5 one that emGEoBs sGeAiaE oGerations forAes and airstriHes to direAtEB target terrorists5 esGeAiaEEB Eeaders of AeEEs.
C itic# cha 4e that the#e "8e ati"!# a e (e e tactical #ucce##e#, $etache$ & "( a!' la 4e #t ate4'. Thi# i# a $i#i!4e!u"u# a##e##(e!t. Targeted striHes do5 in faAt5 serDe the greater strategiA GurGose of disruGting the GEanning and exeAution of terrorist attaAHs! UnEiHe COIN ?FhiAh seems to harCor the grandiose notion of eEiminating terrorism CB transforming soAieties , e4a $le## "& c"#t?Aounterterrorism

aAHnoFEedges that radiAaEism FiEE aEFaBs exist and that GoEiABmaHers shouEd direAtEB seeH to Aontain it!
At the c" e "& thi# #hi&t i# a! acA!"%le$4(e!t that "u 7e#t A&4ha!i#ta! 8"lic' i# !" 7ette tha! "u 7e#t )aAi#ta! 8"lic'. ISAF a!$ A&4ha! &" ce# ca! $" e+e 'thi!4 i(a4i!a7le t" eli(i!ate Tali7a! i!&lue!ce i! the c"u!t ', 7ut a!' e&&" t that $"e# !"t a$$ e## the 8 e#e!ce "& (ilita!t# i! )aAi#ta!F# #e(i:4"+e !e$ #8ace# ulti(atel' $"e# little t" e$uce the th eat 8"#e$ 7' al ;ae$a. At a ("#t 7a#ic le+el, the O7a(a a$(i!i#t ati"! (u#t cha!4e the calculu# "& the )aAi#ta!i (ilita ' a!$ I!te :Se +ice# I!telli4e!ce /ISI0 %ith e4a $ t" e9t e(i#t# i! the c"u!t 'F# !" th%e#t. D"i!4 #" %ill &" ce the U!ite$ State# t" 8la' a ce!t al "le i! a88 "che(e!t 7et%ee! )aAi#ta! a!$ I!$ia?a!$ 7e a &ai 7 "Ae t" 7"th 8a tie#. Ehat a7"ut A&4ha!i#ta!5 ) "8"!e!t# "& a! Rall:i!T a88 "ach te!$ t" (i# e8 e#e!t a (i!i(ali#t #t ate4' a# c"(8lete %ith$ a%al, a 4ui!4 that the U!ite$ State# a7a!$"!e$ A&4ha!i#ta! a&te the S"+iet %a a!$ that $"i!4 #" a4ai! %"ul$ 8lu!4e the c"u!t ' i!t" a!a ch'. Hut &e% #e i"u# a!al'#t# a e talAi!4 a7"ut a7a!$"!i!4 A&4ha!i#ta!, a!$ the e i# !" ea#"! t" 7elie+e that a #(alle , (" e #8eciali<e$ &" ce %"ul$ !"t 7e a7le t" c"!& "!t a!' e#u(8ti"! "& al ;ae$a acti+it' i! the c"u!t '. As far as the TaEiCan are AonAerned5 there is reason to CeEieDe that an eDer7Earger foreign trooG GresenAe simGEB sFeEEs the moDement8s ranHs /t" %it. it has Ceen dismaBing to FatAh inAreased trooG EeDeEs AorreEate Fith reAent TaEiCan gains0. U!til the a$(i!i#t ati"! ca! c"!+i!ci!4l' $e("!#t ate h"% a$$iti"!al t ""8# %ill, i! &act, #u88" t 7 "a$e !ati"!al #ecu it' a!$ c"u!te te " i#( 4"al#, the U!ite$ State# i# 7ette #e +e$ 7' a #t ate4' that (i!i(i<e# the l"## "& li&e a!$ $i<<'i!4 le+el# "& e98e!$itu e that a!' Rall:i!T a88 "ach %"ul$ e!tail.

*+

HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222The GEan8s reNeAtion of AounterinsurgenAB Areates a doAtrinaE shift toFards seEeAtiDe engagement that Aan sustain US GresenAe gEoCaEEB GDenter 6 011/
[Cele#te Se!i" De&e!#e A!al'#t at the RAND C" 8" ati"! a!$ a &" (e $e8ut' a##i#ta!t #ec eta ' "& $e&e!#e. She #e +e$ t%" t"u # i! I a=, i!clu$i!4 a 'ea a# a #e!i" a$+i#e t" Ie!e al )ete Chia elli, the "8e ati"!al c"((a!$e i! I a= i! 200-, RFal#e ) "(i#e "& GC"u!te i!#u 4e!c'GT, 12L1, htt8.LL%%%. a!$." 4Lc"((e!ta 'L200DL12L01LNOT.ht(l6

An effort to AonduAt OAounterinsurgenABO in Afghanistan is !"t @u#t a c"#tl' 7u#i!e## &" #till:u!#8eci&ie$ #t ate4ic etu !#. It i# EiHeEB to al#" GroEong the U!S! defense estaCEishmentMs GreoAAuGation Fith miEitarB7Eed nation7CuiEding in unfamiEiar AuEtures and GerGetuate the deeGEB GroCEematiA assumGtion that AhroniA soAietaE faiEure and soAiaE GathoEogies around the ForEd are a form of Farfare. Thi# !"ti"! i# 7uilt i! 8a t "! %hat #ee(# t" 7e a! "+e #i(8li&ie$ a!$ 4la(" i<e$?a!$ thu# $a!4e "u#l'
(i#lea$i!4?8"8 hi#t" ' a7"ut the G#u 4eG i! I a= a!$ the "le it 8la'e$ i! the #till:u!&"l$i!4 "utc"(e# the e. The oGGortunitB for the neF strategB in Afghanistan %a# t" &" ( the 7e4i!!i!4 "& a !e% e a "& A(e ica! e#t ai!t i! it# &" ei4! 8"lic'?"!e Cased on c"!&i$e!ce i! A(e icaG# "%! +alue#, 8 "tecti"! "& it# 7" $e #, #t "!4 i!telli4e!ce ca8a7ilitie#, a!$ seEeAtiDe engagement of a strong5 ArediCEe U!S! miEitarB AaGaCEe of aGGEBing

oDerFheEming forAe!

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222 Afghanistan CounterinsurgenAB faiEs& ?+ reasons@ EaAH of forAes5 AorruGtion5 GoGuEation GroteAtion5 GuCEiA suGGort5 EaAH of foAus on Aounterterrorism NeEson 6 011/
/RicA, &" (e $i ect" "& a J"i!t Ta#A F" ce i! #u88" t "& O8e ati"! E!$u i!4 F ee$"(, eti e$ !a+al "&&ice %ith a##i4!(e!t# at the Nati"!al C"u!te te " i#( Ce!te a!$ Nati"!al Secu it' C"u!cil, a!$ Se!i" Fell"% at the I!te !ati"!al Secu it' ) "4 a( at the Ce!te &" St ate4ic a!$ I!te !ati"!al Stu$ie# , RThe Othe Si$e "& the COINT, 10L1, htt8.LLc#i#." 4L8u7licati"!L"the :#i$e:c"i!0 A"& ) "7a7l' !"t. CounterinsurgenAB doAtrine, " COIN, ha# ca8tu e$ the hea t# a!$ (i!$# "& (a!' i! the D.C. 8"lic' c"((u!it'. U8"! cl"#e i!#8ecti"!, h"%e+e , it 7ec"(e# clea that COIN, at lea#t a# aGGEied to Afghanistan, is CuiEt on a numCer of shaHB assumGtions. C"!#i$e . 1. E+e! i& Ie!e al McCh '#tal 4et# all J0,000 t ""8# he ha# e=ue#te$, the AomCined I!te !ati"!al Secu it' A##i#ta!ce F" ce /ISAF0, O8e ati"! E!$u i!4 F ee$"( /OEF@5 and Afghan Aontingent %"ul$ stiEE numCer

Eess than 0+15111?far feFer than the 9-15111 trooGs the U!S! ArmB8s oFn CounterinsurgenAB FieEd ManuaE suggests is neAessarB to seAure a state of Afghanistan8s siIe! 2. 4idesGread AorruGtion i! the Au4u#t 20 electi"! has Fidened the trust gaG CetFeen the ,arIai goDernment and the Afghan GeoGEe. Hecau#e suAAessfuE AounterinsurgenAB reJuires a goDernment that is ArediCEe and resGonsiDe to its AitiIens5 these deDeEoGments threaten to deraiE the U!S! a!$ NATO mission. A!$ a# "u e98e ie!ce i! S"uth *iet!a( (a$e 8ai!&ull' clea , the Ehite H"u#e i# u#uall' 8"%e le## t"
&" ce a!' h"#t !ati"! t" e!act 4""$:4"+e !(e!t e&" (#. 1. Ie!e al McCh '#talF# #t ate4ic e+ie% e(8ha#i<e# R8"8ulati"! 8 "tecti"!T a# the Ae' t" $ 'i!4 u8 #u88" t &" the Tali7a!. The clai( i# 7a#e$ "! the a##u(8ti"! that i!#u 4e!cie# e=ui e the 7acAi!4, " at lea#t ac=uie#ce!ce, "& #u "u!$i!4 c"((u!itie# i! " $e t" &u!cti"!. Hut a ece!t a ticle i! the Washington Post !"te$ that the TaEiCan reEB

GrimariEB on foreign5 rather than EoAaE5 funding sourAes5 a faAt that suggests that GoGuEation GroteAtion maB uEtimateEB do EittEe to diminish the insurgenAB8s strength. J. (uCEiA suGGort for a AounterinsurgenAB AamGaign "& #uch (a##i+e 8 "8" ti"!# simGEB does not exist. Rece!t 8"ll# #u44e#t that "+e 30 8e ce!t "& A(e ica!# a e a4ai!#t #e!$i!4 (" e t ""8# t" A&4ha!i#ta!. A!$ "u
Eu "8ea! allie# a e e+e! le## e!thu#ia#tic a7"ut e#calati!4 the %a . 3. Fi!all', the COIN & a(e%" A i# 7uilt "! the la 4e a##u(8ti"! that eli(i!ati!4 the Tali7a! a!$ #ta7ili<i!4 A&4ha!i#ta! i# the 7e#t u#e "& A(e ica! e#"u ce# i! the 7 "a$e e&&" t t" c"(7at te " i#(. Al ;ae$aF# 8 e#e!ce i! a 8 e: DL11, Tali7a!:c"!t "lle$ A&4ha!i#ta! ha# c"!+i!ce$ (a!' "&&icial# that a Tali7a! taAe"+e %"ul$ e#ult i! al ;ae$aF# i!e+ita7le etu ! t" the #tate. Hut al ;ae$a al ea$' ha# e#ta7li#he$ it#el& i! )aAi#ta!F# #e(i:4"+e !e$ #8ace#. Al"!4 %ith Tali7a! a!$ "the e9t e(i#t (ilita!t#, the 4 "u8 e!@"'# the elati+e #a&et' "& the#e te it" ie#, %he e )aAi#ta!i #"+e ei4!t' 8 eclu$e# a!' #u7#ta!ti+e U.S. 4 "u!$ &" ce. E+e! i& al ;ae$a %e e t" ee!te A&4ha!i#ta! #"(eti(e i! the &utu e, the U!ite$ State# %"ul$ &ace the #a(e 7a#ic te " i#t th eat# that it $"e# t"$a'. C itic# %ill a 4ue that A&4ha!i#ta! #e +e$ a# a 7a#e a!$ 8la!!i!4 ce!te &" DL11. T ue e!"u4hN 7ut al ;ae$a, i! e#ta7li#hi!4 a 8 e#e!ce i! )aAi#ta!, S"(alia, a!$ Oe(e! ha# al ea$' $e+el"8e$ !u(e "u# R#a&e ha+e!#.T I! #h" t, our oDerFheEming foAus on Afghanistan faiEs to

serDe a more nuanAed Aounterterrorism strategB that aAHnoFEedges the manB other areas in FhiAh aE ;aeda oGerates.

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HUDL 2010 COTE AFF

SUMMER INSTITUTE

222The FithdraFaE deadEine maHes AounterinsurgenAB imGossiCEe Thiessen 6 01"1 /Ma c, +i#iti!4 &ell"% at the A(e ica! E!te 8 i#e I!#titute, R) e#i$e!t O7a(aG# Det i(e!tal Dea$li!e#,T Ea#hi!4t"! )"#t, -L2D, htt8.LL%%%.aei." 4La ticleL1022JJ0 The deadEine i# (" e tha! a tactical e " N it is a strategiA misAaEAuEation that undermines aEmost eDerB eEement of our efforts in Afghanistan. A FithdraFaE date undermines the DerB Gremise of a AounterinsurgenAB strategB :: that 7' 8 "tecti!4 the 8"8ulati"!, '"u ca! ea ! thei t u#t a!$ 4et the( t" hel8 '"u ""t "ut the te " i#t# a!$ i!#u 4e!t#. A# c"lu(!i#t Cha le# > autha((e ha# e98lai!e$, Afghans FiEE not risH Noining us in the fight if theB thinH AmeriAa FiEE soon Ce EeaDing them to the merAB of the TaEiCan. The $a(a4e 4"e# e+e! $ee8e tha! that. The stated GurGose of the deadEine is to Gut Gressure on A&4ha! ) e#i$e!t Ha(i$ ,arIai to eEiminate AorruGtion a!$ i!c ea#e the le4iti(ac' a!$ e&&ecti+e!e## "& the A&4ha! 4"+e !(e!t. Instead5 it has had the oGGosite effeAt77Areating a GerDerse inAentiDe for ,arIai to maHe oDertures to the TaEiCan5 and Aut deaEs to staB in GoFer5 so that he Aan AoDer his Cets Fhen the AmeriAans EeaDe! The deadEine is aEso FeaHening our AoaEition! It i# ha $ e!"u4h t" 4et NATO c"u!t ie# t" c"u4h u8 t ""8#, 7ut Fhen our NATO aEEies CeEieDe that AmeriAa is GaAHing its Cags5 theB start GaAHing as FeEE. Ca!a$a
ha# a!!"u!ce$ it# (i##i"! %ill e!$ i! 2011. I! Fe7 ua ', the Dutch a!!"u!ce$ the' %ill %ith$ a% 7' thi# Dece(7e . A!$ la#t %eeA, )"la!$ $ecla e$ that all it# t ""8# %ill 7e lea+e 7' 2012 7ecau#e, a# the hea$ "& )"la!$G# Nati"!al Secu it' Hu eau 8ut it, A&4ha!i#ta! i# hea$i!4 t"%a $ a K#t ate4ic cata#t "8heK a!$ )"la!$ !ee$e$ t" K#eeA a %a' "ut "& thi# #ituati"!.K O7a(a ca! ha $l' 8u#h 7acA "! NATO allie# t" #ta' i& A(e ica i# !"t c"((itte$ t" #ta'i!4 it#el&. The $ea$li!e al#" #e!$# the % "!4 (e##a4e t" )aAi#ta!. Ele(e!t# "& )aAi#ta!i i!telli4e!ce ha+e l"!4 (ai!tai!e$ =uiet tie# %ith the Tali7a! a!$ "the @iha$i#t 4 "u8#, u#i!4 the#e (ilita!t# t" $e#ta7ili<e A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ I!$ia. O7a(a i# 8 e##i!4 )aAi#ta! t" cut the#e tie# a!$ hel8 u# $i#(a!tle the#e !et%" A#::a! e&&" t that i# c itical t" the #ucce## "& 7"th "u (i##i"! i! A&4ha!i#ta! a!$ "u ca(8ai4! a4ai!#t al:;ae$a i! )aAi#ta!G# t i7al e4i"!#. Hut i& the )aAi#ta!i# 8e cei+e A(e ica i# lea+i!4, %h' %"ul$ the' acce$e t" #uch 8 e##u e5 The FithdraFaE date aEso emCoEdens the TaEiCan! A# A i<"!a Se!. J"h! McCai! 8ut# it, KEe ca!!"t tell the e!e(' %he! '"u a e lea+i!4 i! %a &a e a!$ e98ect '"u #t ate4' t" 7e a7le t" 8 e+ail.K

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