REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, WATER AND NATURAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES KENYA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, Nairobi, Kenya, Telephone: 254-20-3867880-5, Fax: 254-20-3876955/387373, E-mail:director@meteo.go.ke

REVIEW OF THE WEATHER IN OCTOBER AND THE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2013
Ref N: KMD/FCST/4-2013/MO/11 Issue Date: 31/10/2013

1.
1.1

SUMMARY
Weather Review in October 2013

Most parts of the country experienced generally sunny and dry weather conditions during the month of October 2013. This signaled a delay in the onset of the Short Rains season especially over the central highlands and Nairobi area. The western region and some parts of Northeastern Kenya and the Coastal Strip, however, recorded significant amounts of rainfall that ranged between 75% and 125% (near-normal rainfall) of their monthly Long-Term Means (LTMs) for October
The forecast for November 2013

1.2

November marks the peak month of the Short Rains season over most parts of the country. The outlook for November 2013 indicates that: Most parts of western and Northwestern Kenya are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to above-average (slightly enhanced rainfall). The rest of the country including the central regions and the Coastal strip is likely to experience near-average to below-average (generally depressed) rainfall during the month.

The expected weather conditions during the month are likely to be driven by the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) patterns in the Indian Ocean. The currently warmer than average SSTs over the Equatorial western Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African Coast) are likely to improve the rainfall performance in the country as the month of November progresses.

2. 2.1

WEATHER REVIEW FOR OCTOBER 2013 Review of the Rainfall Patterns

Most parts of Western Kenya and the Central Rift Valley recorded substantial amounts of rainfall during October 2013. Some Meteorological Stations as well as some Rainfall Stations in the regions recorded daily rainfall amounts exceeding 40mm. On 7th October, for example, Kitale Meteorological Station recorded 43.2mm, Kakamega Meteorological Station recorded 40.0mm on 2nd October while Shikoti rainfall station observed 43.7mm on 26 October 2013. Significant amounts of rainfall were also recorded over some parts of Northeastern Kenya as well as the Coastal strip. On 11th October, Marsabit meteorological station recorded 42.6mm while Malindi and Mtwapa stations, both in the Coastal Strip, recorded 46.0mm and 40.7mm on 2nd and 6th October 2013 respectively. Elsewhere, generally sunny and dry weather conditions were dominant with monthly rainfall totals barely exceeding 30mm.
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Up to 29th October, Kakamega Meteorological station recorded the highest monthly rainfall total of 182.0mm (109%) as compared to its October LTM of 166.5mm. Kericho, Kitale, Mtwapa, Kisii and Shikoti stations recorded 143.8mm (86%), 135.0mm (116%), 132.6 (133%), 123.1mm (68%) and 108.9mm respectively. Nyahururu, Marsabit, Eldoret Airport, Eldoret Kapsoya, Kisumu, Msabaha, Mombasa and Malindi stations recorded between 50 and 100mm while the rest of the stations recorded less than 50mm. The most depressed rainfall was recorded in Nairobi area, Northwestern Kenya and the southern parts of central Rift Valley where monthly rainfall totals of less than 10mm were recorded. Indeed, Thika, Wilson Airport, Lodwar and Narok stations recorded less than a millimeter or no rainfall at all as seen in Figure 1. 2.2 Review of the Synoptic Patterns in October 2013 During October 2013, slightly warmer than average Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) evolved over western Equatorial Indian Ocean along the coast of East African. The warmer that average SSTs previously observed over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean, adjacent to Australia reduced significantly. The SST anomalies in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Nio areas) remained negative, an indication that La Nia-like conditions were developing in the Pacific Ocean. The Meridional (North-south) arm of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was mainly over Uganda and the western parts of the country while the Zonal (east-west) arm of the ITCZ remained to the north of the country (in Ethiopia and Sudan) but occasionally moved southwards and touched the extreme northern parts of Kenya. The Eastern Africa high-pressure ridge remained moderately strong while the Arabian ridge was in the development stage. 3. EXPERIENCED IMPACTS Planting of seeds in most parts of the country was yet to start due to the prolonged dry conditions over most agricultural areas. The dry conditions in most parts of Northeastern, Northwestern and Southeastern parts of the country were associated with diminishing pastures and water for livestock. The good rainfall in Western Kenya was beneficial to farmers who continued to observe good crop performance, especially in the maize basket areas of North Rift. The dry long spell in the Tana River catchment areas may have resulted into lower water levels in the Seven-Folks hydro-electric power generating dams.

4.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2013

This climate outlook is based on regression models developed from expected evolution of global SSTs and SST gradients in the global Oceans. The warmer than average SSTs over the Equatorial western Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African Coast) as well as the decrease warmer SSTs over the Equatorial eastern Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) were considered. This configuration constitutes a weaker positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as opposed to the scenario observed previously. The La Nia-like conditions in the Pacific Ocean were also put into consideration. The forecast indicates that most parts of western and northwestern Kenya are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to above-average (slightly enhanced rainfall) during the month of November. Most parts of central highlands including Nairobi area, Northeastern and Southeastern Kenya as well as the entire Coastal strip are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency to below-average (generally depressed) rainfall as seen in figure 2. The specific outlook for individual areas is as follows: The Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale, Kericho, Nandi, Eldoret, Kakamega etc), Lake Victoria Basin (Kisumu, Kisii, Busia etc), northern parts of central Rift Valley (Nakuru, Nyahururu etc) and Northwestern Kenya (Lodwar, Lokichoggio, Lokitaung etc) are likely to receive near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to above-average (slightly enhanced) rainfall; The Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyeri, Muranga, Embu, Meru etc), Nairobi area and its environs (Dagoretti, Wilson, Eastleigh, Kiambu, Thika etc), Southeastern lowlands (Voi,
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Makindu, Tana River, Taveta etc), Northeastern Kenya (Mandera, Wajir, Moyale, Marsabit, Garissa etc) and the entire Coastal strip (Mombasa, Mtwapa, Malindi, Msabaha, Lamu etc) are likely to receive near-average to below-average (depressed) rainfall. The November 2013 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space, over most of the eastern sector of the country. 5. POTENTIAL IMPACTS

The poor rainfall expected over most parts of the country, especially the eastern sector, is expected to interfere with the agricultural activities. Good crop performance is however expected to continue in western Kenya where good rainfall performance is expected. Foliage and pasture conditions in the pastoral areas of Northern, Northeastern, Southeastern and southern Rift Valley are expected to deteriorate as a result of the expected poor rains. Isolated cases of flooding are still probable in western Kenya where enhanced rainfall is expected. N.B: This forecast should be used in conjunction with the daily 24-hour and the five-day forecasts issued by this Department. Regular updates are also available from Kenya Meteorological Services.

DR. JOSEPH R. MUKABANA, (PhD), MBS DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF KENYA WITH WMO

250.0

TOTAL

LTM(OCT)

200.0

Rainfall (mm)

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

MARSABIT

LAIKIPIA

KAKAMEGA

MSABAHA

KISII

WAJIR

JKIA

MALINDI

MACHAKOS

NYAHURURU

ELDORET AP

Stations

FIGURE 1: OCTOBER 2013 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE

DAGORETTI

MOMBASA

KISUMU

MAKINDU

EMBU

MOYALE

MANDERA

KERICHO

GARISSA

NYERI

LAMU

M.A.B

ELDORET

MTWAPA

KITALE

NAKURU

MERU

WILSON

THIKA

LODWAR

NAROK

VOI

Figure 2: November 2013 Rainfall Outlook