Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Hidalgo

First Project By Ral Isaac Amador Camacho-A01271669 Jos Keveen Hernndez Prez-A01271508 Armando Espinoza Chvez- A01271805

Escenarios Regionales Contemporneos (5) Teacher. William Arthur Payne September 6, 2013

What we want from our investigation is to find out how the changes in the climate can affect the world and the people who live in it. We want to find out this, because this way when we know the risks that this can produce, we can warn people of them in order to make people meditate about this huge problem hoping that when they have this information they will stop doing things that harm the planet and they will start doing things to help balance the damage that has already been done. We hope people wont ignore this problem that is affecting the world and realize that we cant afford to continue doing things that harm the planet and realize that if we dont start fixing this problem, the damages that would have been already caused in the world would be unfixable. Thesis Statement: The climate change is a problem that has to be fixed as soon as possible, otherwise the damage that would have been done in the world would have been unfixable and catastrophic. Article: Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming A new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the authors are now 95 percent to 100 percent confident that human activity is the primary influence on planetary warming. An international panel of scientists has found with near certainty that human activity is the cause of most of the temperature increases of recent decades, and warns that sea levels could conceivably rise by more than three feet by the end of the century if emissions continue at a runaway pace. The scientists, whose findings are reported in a draft summary of the next big United Nations climate report, largely dismiss a recent slowdown in the pace of warming, which is often cited by climate change doubters, attributing it most likely to short-term factors. The report emphasizes that the basic facts about future climate change are more established than ever, justifying the rise in global concern. It also reiterates that the consequences of escalating emissions are likely to be profound. It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010, the draft

report says. There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the 20th century. The draft comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of several hundred scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, along with Al Gore. Its summaries, published every five or six years, are considered the definitive assessment of the risks of climate change, and they influence the actions of governments around the world. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, for instance, largely on the basis of the groups findings. The coming report will be the fifth major assessment from the group, created in 1988. Each report has found greater certainty that the planet is warming and greater likelihood that humans are the primary cause. The 2007 report found unequivocal evidence of warming, but hedged a little on responsibility, saying the chances were at least 90 percent that human activities were the cause. The language in the new draft is stronger, saying the odds are at least 95 percent that humans are the principal cause. On sea level, which is one of the biggest single worries about climate change, the new report goes well beyond the assessment published in 2007, which largely sidestepped the question of how much the ocean could rise this century. The new report also reiterates a core difficulty that has plagued climate science for decades: While averages for such measures as temperature can be predicted with some confidence on a global scale, the coming changes still cannot be forecast reliably on a local scale. That leaves governments and businesses fumbling in the dark as they try to plan ahead. On another closely watched issue, the scientists retreated slightly from their 2007 position. Regarding the question of how much the planet could warm if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere doubled, the previous report largely ruled out any number below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The new draft says the rise could be as low as 2.7 degrees, essentially restoring a scientific consensus that prevailed from 1979 to 2007. But the draft says only that the low number is possible, not that it is likely. Many climate scientists see only a remote chance that the warming will be that low, with the published evidence suggesting that an increase above 5 degrees Fahrenheit is more likely if carbon dioxide doubles. The level of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is up 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution, and if present trends continue it could double in a matter of decades.

Warming the entire planet by 5 degrees Fahrenheit would add a stupendous amount of energy to the climate system. Scientists say the increase would be greater over land and might exceed 10 degrees at the poles. They add that such an increase would lead to widespread melting of land ice, extreme heat waves, difficulty growing food and massive changes in plant and animal life, probably including a wave of extinctions. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/science/earth/extremely-likely-that-human-activity-isdriving-climate-change-panel-finds.html?_r=0 Opinion: Recently researchers have found that at least 95 percent of climate changes are produced because of human beings fault. Climate change is a huge issue that humanity cannot ignore. The impact that it would produce in the world can be catastrophic and it could change many things in the lives of all the living organisms inhabiting in it. This proves my teams thesis which says that climate change is such a big problem that if it is not solved as soon as possible, consequences in the planet may be unfixable and catastrophic. People have to start solving this problem as soon as possible to reduce as much as possible the damage that has been made in the world. To be able to solve this problem, people should be completely aware of the consequences this can produce and concern more about our planet, if not, live as we know it may change a lot. Jos Keveen Hernndez Prez A01271508

Article: SAN FRANCISCO The huge wildfire scorching one of Americas most beloved national parks, Yosemite, has rained ash on San Franciscos water supply and jolted the nation. Experts say this is just a foretaste of major fires to come, in the United States and much of the world. Increasing incursions by humans into forests, coupled with altered forest ecology and climate change, will make fires bigger and more destructive, with implications for air quality as well as homes and infrastructure. We face the increased risk of fires almost everywhere, said Chris Field, director of the department of at global ecology the Carnegie Institution for Science, who is co-chairman of a working group for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

There have always been forest fires, of course. But their patterns are changing because of people. Humans are often responsible for starting the fires, accidentally or intentionally; some spin out of control. The suppression of smaller fires can lead to buildups of burnable brush that can feed a huge, destructive blaze when it is sparked. That is true of the California blaze and many others in the American West; it is also what has happened in significant recent blazes in Turkey, according to Chadwick Oliver, director of the Global Institute of Sustainable Forestry at Yale University We dont need much of a spark to set off a fire that spreads long distances through the crowded, continuous forests, Dr. Oliver said. And climate change, to which humans contribute, is heating up and drying out some though not all areas. Global studies of wildfire patterns are rare. But a paper published last year in the journal Ecosphere predicted that climate change would have an effect on wildfires that varies widely, especially in accordance with a given regions precipitation patterns. Kate Galbraith. (September 4, 2013). Wildfires and Climate Change. Recover on September 5, 2013 of The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/05/business/energy-environment/wildfires-and-climatechange.html Opinion This article is talking about how the change climate is affecting the wildfires in EUA and the rest of the world. One of the severe wildfire took place in national Park Yosemite in San Francisco. Lamentably the water supplies results damaged because the ash rained into the supplies. The problem is that the air quality results pollute thanks to big fires and these are produced by human unconsciousness and all this has begun to affect to the citizens. Chris Field the director of the department of at global ecology the Carnegie Institution for Science is worry about the situation of wildfires because we face a latent risk everywhere. We were having fires since long time ago, but now the situation has changed.

Thats why the humans are principal cause of fires start in the forests, we as humans are causing a huge impact in climate change witch we are largely responsible for some change. In the past few centuries the human activities have increased large amounts of consequences in forest fires. Some of the cases are deforestation, the fires break the balance of ecosystems with a negative impact on the animals that live there. The burned areas lose their attractive landscape. Its significant gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide etc.) that generate large wildfires to large forested areas that are critical for their contribution to the greenhouse effect. The renewable resources are also affected. I think that we must preserve the forests because they are an important part of our lives and they are the future of the next generations. For the first time , has been linked to a dramatic global climate change impact in Quebec , Canada, an asteroid or comet. Researchers at Dartmouth College in Hanover , New Hampshire , USA , and colleagues report that a cataclysm wiped out many large mammals on the planet and could have led to human beings begin to gather and include as part of their food other foods , not just from the game. The cooling during the Younger Dryas affected human history in a profound impact occurred 12,900 years ago , at the start of the Younger Dryas period or Younger Dryas , which marked an abrupt global change to cold weather , drier, with effects long range of animals and humans. In North America , large animals disappeared , including mastodons , camels , giant ground sloths and sabertoothed cats . His human hunters , known to archaeologists as the Clovis people , put aside their spears high strength and turned to a subsistence diet of hunter -gatherers of roots, berries and small game . "The cooling during the Younger Dryas affected human history in a profound way ," says Dartmouth Professor Mukul Sharma , a co-author of the study, whose findings are published next week in the online edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. " Environmental stresses may also have caused the Natufian were established for the first time in the Middle East and paracticaran agriculture ," says this expert . The classical view of the cooling during the Younger Dryas was an ice dam ice in North America broke, releasing a huge amount of fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean . Until now, it was thought that the sudden influx closed ocean currents that move the tropical waters to the north , leading to dry and cold climate of Younger Dryas .

http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/1909053/0/impacto-asteroide/cambio-climatico/hace-12900anos/

Opinion Researchers of Dartmouth University report that a cataclysm could finish with the biggest mammals of the world and this fact could be the causing that the human being star to search other kind of food not just from big game, cooling while Recent Dryas affected largely to the human history, becaus e the impact that this produced about 12900 years ago on the beginning of young Dryas or recent Dyras that marked a global change on the weather doing it dryer, changing the live of the animals and the human beings. In North America the great animals disappear like mastodontes, camellos, perezosos and saber toothed tiger the clovis which are the human hunters of this animals left their guns to back to their diet of roots, berries and small game. The professor Dartmouth Mukul Sharma whose studies comes from the National Academy of Sciences he says environmental stresses could cause that Natufiense establish by first time near to the east to practice the agriculture,On the classical point of vew cooling while recent Dryas was that a ice dam of the layer of ice of North Amrica was broken releasimg a los of water to the atlantic ocean nowadayas we think that that fact close the oceanic currents that move tropical water to the north that produce a the dry and cold weather of recent Dryas. Armando Espinoza Chvez- A01271805

ARTICLE Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner. Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves. Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gasses produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will vary over time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to change. The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will produce beneficial impacts in some regions and harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will increase over time as global temperatures increase.

"Taken as a whole," the IPCC states, "the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time."
Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the IPCC:

North America: Decreasing snowpack in the western mountains; 5-20 percent increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions; increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in cities that currently experience them.2 Latin America: Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazonia; risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many tropical areas; significant changes in water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.3 Europe: Increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion from storms and sea level rise; glacial retreat in mountainous areas; reduced snow cover and winter tourism; extensive species losses; reductions of crop productivity in southern Europe.4 Africa: By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress; yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions by 2020; agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely compromised.5 Asia: Freshwater availability projected to decrease in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia by the 2050s; coastal areas will be at risk due to increased flooding; death rate from disease associated with floods and droughts expected to rise in some regions.6

http://climate.nasa.gov/effects As we know global change has really several effects respect to the environment that are easy to observe. Changes in the ecosystems like melting ice caps, Glaciers have shrunk and, animal and plants are in out of balance and disoriented. In past the changes of climate change had been predicted by the scientist and could be prevented before this will be reality. Those predictions are increase in sea

level, more intense heat waves through temperature growth. The last one, temperature growth, according to experts this will increase over time, all because human faults. According to Panel on Climate Change the temperature will rise 2.5 to 10 Fahrenheit to the next one hundred years. According to the IPCC The changes will vary accordant to the zone. with the passage of time and versatility of the people to adapt. Also it is predicted that temperature growth will be about 1 to 3 degrees Celsius. It may be beneficial to some places but to others may be catastrophic and also increased the costs of the area. Ral Isaac Amador Camacho -A01271669