Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
M.Tanzeel-e-Rahman khan Zaeem munawar Arslan Khalil Riasat Ali Nayab saleem
Shamsher Khan Additional Director National School of Public Policy NMC Lahore.
Assignment topic: Impact of economic indicators on growth and development. Presented to: Miss Zahra
Introduction
Theoretical Framework
After the World War II there was need for rehabilitation, reconstruction and development so International bank for reconstruction and development IBRD was found .Economic growth became the most desired pursuit of all developing economies which aspired to match up with the developed world for their survival, so the economists are interested in finding the causality pattern (models) of growth determinants in order to design the growth strategy for their economies. The thesis that the trade is an engine of growth is true for most of the economies. Pakistans experience supported this thesis especially in its early development phase. Now the country has started experiencing the otherwise lower GDP growth rates consistently. This should not be taken as reversal of the thesis. In fact this situation should be viewed in the emerging scenario of multiple new factors which exert their depressing influence upon the growth rate.
It is well known that economically developed countries have the capacity increase national income, to reduce poverty level, improve their living standards, strengthen their socio -economic institutions, preserve natural environment and achieve political stability. After the World War II, many countries adopted very aggressive pattern of growth, while some of the most recently emancipated countries still strive to cope up with the modern standards of development so they are working to improve their real GDP. Since 1960, development studies have identified significant determinants of economic growth. There is a large part of economic theory that analyzes the causal relationship between trade and economic growth. The relationship between trade openness and growth is a highly debated topic. Generally the expansion in trade assumes the role as the main determinant of economic growth, so an increase in exports &/or imports leads to an increase in economic growth. However, the trade and growth relationship is influenced by some other indirect factors which have to be kept in view in drawing conclusions on case to case bases.
her performance in attracting FDI. Pakistans outward looking development strategy must include FDI as an essential part in addition to export promotion strategy.
Pakistans east wing was separated. To overcome these problems we have collected the data from 1972 to 2002. The results are shown in next section, are quite different from Sinhas study.
The main objective of our study is to find the causality between trade growth and GDP growth. Iqbal, Baig and Tahir (2002) found that policy liberalization leading to an increase in imports may lead to a growth of output. Moreover, Iqbal, Tahir and Baig (2001) argued that import of Pakistan is mostly consisting of intermediate goods (petroleum, machinery, chemicals etc.) which are conducive to output growth, so the impact of import growth on output is positive.
References:
1- Ministry of Finance ,Government of Pakistan. PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEYS:
2- GDPinflation.com http://www.gdpinflation.com/2013/06/pakistan-gdp-and-gdp-growth-rate-from.html
3- Siddiqui. A.H, The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce & Industry and Iqbal. J, Department of Statistics,University of Karachi IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON OUTPUT GROWTH FOR PAKISTAN: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION Market Forces April 2005
4- Chaudhary. M. A Qaisrani. A.A. TRADE INSTABILITY, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN Pakistan Economic and Social Review ,Volume XL, No. 1 (Summer 2002), pp. 57-73
5-Atique. A Ahmad. M.H and Azhar. U THE IMPACT OF FDI ON ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER FOREIGN TRADE REGIMES: A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN Date: Unknown
6- scar Afonso THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH Investigao - Trabalhos em curso - CEMPRE Faculdade de Economia do Porto,Rua Dr. Roberto Frias 4200-464 Porto, Portugal, email: oafonso@fep.up.pt
Annexure
Real Full GDP Agriculture Industry Services Year Growth Rate 2013 3.3%-P 2012 3.5% 2011 2.4% 2010 0.6% 2009 4.0% 2008 1.0% 2007 4.1% 2006 6.3% 2005 6.5% 2004 2.4% 2003 4.1% 2002 0.1% 2001 -2.2% 2000 6.1% 1999 1.9% 1998 4.5% 1997 0.1% 1996 11.7% 1995 6.6% 1994 5.2% 1993 -5.3% 1992 9.5% 3.5%-P 2.7% 0.7% 8.3% -10.6% 1.4% 8.8% 4.1% 12.1% 16.3% 4.2% 2.7% 4.1% 1.3% 4.9% 6.1% -0.3% 4.7% 0.7% 4.5% 5.5% 7.7% 3.7%-P 5.3% 4.4% 2.90% 1.7% 6.0% 7.0% 6.5% 8.5% 5.8% 5.2% 4.8% 3.1% 4.2% 5.0% 1.6% 3.6% 5.0% 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 6.8% 3.60%-P 4.40% 3.00% 3.80% -1.6% 7.2% 6.8% 5.8% 9.0% 7.5% 4.7% 3.1% 2.0% 3.9% 4.2% 3.5% 1.7% 6.6% 4.1% 4.5% 2.3% 7.7%
1991 5.0% 1990 3.0% 1989 6.9% 1988 2.7% 1987 3.3% 1986 5.9% 1985 10.9% 1984 -4.8% 1983 4.4% 1982 4.7% 1981 3.7% 1980 6.6% 1979 3.1% 1978 2.8% 1977 2.5% 1976 4.5% 1975 -2.1% 1974 4.2% 1973 1.7% 1972 3.5% 1971 -3.1% 1970 9.5% 1969 4.5% 1968 11.7% 1967 5.5% 1966 0.5% 1965 5.3%
6.9% 6.4% 4.7% 9.8% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.1% 4.9% 10.7% 9.4% 10.8% 7.6% 9.5% 2.9% 4.9% 2.0% 8.4% 10.3% -1.5% 6.4% 15.3% 12.0% 5.1% 3.6% 8.0% 11.2%
5.2% 4.5% 3.8% 6.8% 5.9% 5.8% 7.9% 7.9% 9.2% 7.9% 6.6% 5.9% 6.1% 10.5% 3.0% 1.5% 10.0% 9.8% 9.6% 3.5% 2.6% 7.0% 5.6% 3.1% 0.7% 14.4% 12.8%
5.6% 4.6% 4.8% 6.4% 5.8% 6.4% 8.7% 4.0% 6.8% 7.6% 6.4% 7.3% 5.5% 7.7% 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% 7.5% 6.8% 2.3% 1.2% 9.8% 6.5% 6.8% 3.1% 7.6% 9.4%
1964 2.5% 1963 5.2% 1962 6.2% 1961 -0.2% 1960 0.3% 1959 4.0% 1958 1.9% 1957 2.3% 1956 2.1% 1955 -2.2% 1954 15.2% 1953 0.2% 1952 -9.1% 1951 2.6%
14.8% 12.7% 9.5% 18% 1.8% 6.7% 5.6% 5.9% 10.5% 10.3% 12.1% 8.8% 11.4% 8.5%
6.8% 6.9% 4.3% 5.7% 1.2% 6.8% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 5.0% 3.6% 1.6% 4.8% 4.5%
6.5% 7.2% 6.0% 4.9% 0.9% 5.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 10.2% 1.7% -1.8% 3.9%
10
197,186.6 179,747.0
15.1 70.3
366,822.6 331,464.7
-169,620.9 -51,647.4
Mar Apr
* Provisiona l
209,240.8 209,142.2
32.8 298.8
361,585.0 384,277.1
-152,311.4 -174,836.1
11