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US - GDP 2014-2015 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
For 2014 we expect a GDP growth of 2.14% (down from +2.22%, previous estimate), from +1.88% in 2013
For 2Q2014 expect GDP growth of 3.00% Q/Q, SAAR, from -0.98% Q/Q, SAAR in the 1Q2014
The following is the summary of our estimate

Expenditure Approach
2012
2013
16,244.6 16,799.7
11,149.6 11,501.5
2,409.1
2,564.0
66.1
106.1
2,195.9
2,259.9
-2,743.1 -2,757.2
3,167.0
3,125.5
0.0
-0.1
4.58%
3.42%
4.09%
3.16%
9.72%
6.43%
4.51%
2.91%
2.74%
0.51%
0.26%
-1.31%
15,470.7 15,761.3
10,517.6 10,727.9
2,365.3
2,470.9
57.6
81.6
1,957.5
2,010.1
-2,388.2 -2,422.3
2,963.1
2,897.0
-2.2
-3.7
2.78%
1.88%
2.20%
2.00%
8.27%
4.46%
3.54%
2.69%
2.22%
1.43%
-0.98%
-2.23%
105.0
106.6
106.0
107.2
101.9
103.8
112.2
112.4
114.9
113.8
106.9
107.9
1.75%
1.51%
1.85%
1.13%
1.34%
1.88%
0.94%
0.22%
0.52%
-0.90%
1.25%
0.94%
Last data
Own estimate

2014
17,396.6
11,949.8
2,714.5
107.9
2,354.7
-2,839.4
3,109.5
-0.3
3.55%
3.90%
5.87%
4.20%
2.98%
-0.51%
16,098.1
11,015.4
2,568.4
94.4
2,071.2
-2,479.2
2,843.8
-15.8
2.14%
2.68%
3.94%
3.04%
2.35%
-1.83%
108.1
108.5
105.7
113.7
114.5
109.3
1.39%
1.19%
1.85%
1.12%
0.62%
1.35%

2015
GDP
GDP Current Billions of dollars, SAAR
18,033.2
Personal Consumption Expenditure
12,383.6
Fixed Private Investment
2,885.2
Change in private inventories
133.4
Exports (goods & services)
2,451.4
Imports (goods & services)
-2,906.6
Public (Expenditures & Investment)
3,087.6
-1.3
Residual
3.66% GDP Current Y/Y
3.63%
Personal Consumption Expenditure
6.29%
Fixed Private Investment
4.10%
Exports (goods & services)
2.37%
Imports (goods & services)
-0.70%
Public (Expenditures & Investment)
Real
GDP Billions (2009) dollars, SAAR
16,457.4
Personal Consumption Expenditure
11,281.0
Fixed Private Investment
2,684.4
Change in private inventories
118.3
Exports (goods & services)
2,135.9
Imports (goods & services)
-2,528.9
Public (Expenditures & Investment)
2,788.9
-22.2
Residual
2.23% Real GDP Q/Q SAAR
2.41%
Personal Consumption Expenditure
4.52%
Fixed Private Investment
3.13%
Exports (goods & services)
2.01%
Imports (goods & services)
-1.93%
Public (Expenditures & Investment)
109.6
GDP Price index (2009=100)
109.8
Personal Consumption Expenditure
107.5
Fixed Private Investment
114.8
Exports (goods & services)
114.9
Imports (goods & services)
110.7
Public (Expenditures & Investment)
1.40% GDP Price Index Q/Q SAAR
1.19%
Personal Consumption Expenditure
1.69%
Fixed Private Investment
0.95%
Exports (goods & services)
0.36%
Imports (goods & services)
1.25%
Public (Expenditures & Investment)

2014Q1
17,101.3
11,792.1
2,627.9
66.8
2,300.1
-2,801.9
3,116.3
0.0
3.42%
3.63%
5.47%
3.88%
2.36%
-0.25%
15,902.8
10,914.3
2,496.6
49.0
2,032.1
-2,451.0
2,862.7
-0.9
-0.98%
3.10%
-2.31%
-5.99%
0.75%
-0.81%
107.5
108.0
105.3
113.2
114.3
108.9
1.27%
1.39%
2.47%
2.66%
2.79%
0.54%

2014Q2
17,292.8
11,902.4
2,690.1
87.3
2,340.0
-2,835.2
3,108.5
-0.2
3.79%
4.16%
5.75%
4.51%
3.18%
-0.43%
16,020.7
10,976.0
2,551.9
78.6
2,059.2
-2,474.4
2,848.7
-19.4
3.00%
2.28%
9.16%
5.43%
3.87%
-1.94%
107.9
108.4
105.4
113.6
114.6
109.1
1.51%
1.48%
0.59%
1.59%
0.93%
0.96%

2014Q3
17,492.7
11,990.3
2,746.9
130.0
2,369.8
-2,854.9
3,111.1
-0.5
3.43%
3.92%
5.93%
4.59%
3.21%
-0.84%
16,168.8
11,043.6
2,597.1
116.3
2,080.6
-2,490.5
2,842.9
-21.3
3.75%
2.49%
7.26%
4.23%
2.63%
-0.81%
108.2
108.6
105.8
113.9
114.6
109.4
0.92%
0.49%
1.36%
0.93%
0.17%
1.16%

2014Q4
17,699.4
12,114.2
2,793.1
147.4
2,409.1
-2,865.6
3,101.9
-0.7
3.57%
3.88%
6.31%
3.81%
3.17%
-0.53%
16,300.2
11,127.5
2,627.8
133.7
2,112.9
-2,501.1
2,820.9
-21.5
3.29%
3.07%
4.82%
6.35%
1.72%
-3.06%
108.6
108.9
106.3
114.0
114.6
110.0
1.47%
1.09%
1.97%
0.42%
-0.20%
1.95%

Production Approach
Industry Value Added, SAAR Billions of dollars
GDP
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Professional and business services
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services
Other services, except government
Government
Federal
State and local
Not allocated by industry
Addenda:
Private goods-producing industries
Private services-producing industries
Own estimate
Price index 2009=100
GDP
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Professional and business services
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services
Other services, except government
Government
Federal
State and local
Addenda:
Private goods-producing industries
Private services-producing industries
Own estimate
Industry Value Added, SAAR Billions of chained(2009 dollars
GDP
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Professional and business services
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services
Other services, except government
Government
Federal
State and local
Not allocated by industry
Addenda:
Private goods-producing industries
Private services-producing industries
Real GDP Q/Q, SAAR
Real GDP
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Professional and business services
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services
Other services, except government
Government
Federal
State and local
Addenda:
Private goods-producing industries
Private services-producing industries
Own estimate

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4


16,535.3 16,661.0 16,912.9 17,089.6 17,101.3 17,292.8 17,492.7 17,699.4
14,350.5 14,477.5 14,731.7 14,895.6 14,980.5 15,094.7 15,282.9 15,457.5
280.7
270.9
271.5
253.3
284.4
295.3
307.7
308.3
427.4
445.1
469.2
455.6
454.7
468.0
484.2
486.4
283.4
287.5
286.6
290.7
291.1
294.3
295.8
298.6
594.3
605.6
619.7
625.8
632.1
641.1
651.0
659.3
2,054.6 2,049.0 2,079.3 2,135.1 2,137.8 2,132.4 2,143.8 2,175.8
1,077.3 1,083.9 1,102.7 1,121.9 1,123.1 1,129.4 1,139.8 1,155.4
977.4
965.1
976.6 1,013.3 1,014.6 1,003.0 1,004.0 1,020.4
977.2
983.2 1,009.5 1,024.8 1,031.7 1,038.7 1,053.7 1,069.9
944.0
948.7
963.4
969.2
976.8
984.9
996.2 1,004.9
483.3
485.0
491.3
501.4
506.0
510.3
513.6
523.3
790.2
797.0
804.7
817.6
814.7
817.4
823.9
831.9
3,225.9 3,267.9 3,325.9 3,353.1 3,364.5 3,390.6 3,437.5 3,468.8
1,951.6 1,984.1 2,027.6 2,058.1 2,060.9 2,077.7 2,108.6 2,138.0
1,370.5 1,378.0 1,394.6 1,408.9 1,418.5 1,429.4 1,443.1 1,455.7
610.5
616.6
626.3
637.0
640.5
644.8
652.0
662.2
356.7
359.0
362.0
364.8
367.0
369.8
371.7
374.5
2,184.8 2,183.5 2,181.3 2,194.0 2,209.3 2,206.6 2,204.1 2,209.0
705.0
701.2
692.7
696.8
701.9
702.2
697.9
697.3
1,479.8 1,482.3 1,488.6 1,497.1 1,507.5 1,504.4 1,506.2 1,511.7
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-88.6
-8.5
5.8
32.9
3,357.1 3,370.6 3,439.7 3,469.9 3,509.0 3,536.8 3,586.7 3,629.7
10,993.4 11,106.9 11,291.9 11,425.7 11,471.6 11,557.9 11,696.2 11,827.8
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4
106.11
106.26
106.78
107.20
107.54
107.94
108.19
108.58
107.19
107.33
107.90
108.15
108.87
109.24
109.72
110.09
183.22
173.43
168.53
160.11
171.93
172.54
173.79
172.03
125.48
127.32
134.17
127.12
126.00
126.81
131.19
130.13
96.07
98.12
96.96
98.28
97.90
98.93
98.99
99.78
103.48
104.70
105.43
108.10
108.10
108.79
109.56
111.35
108.14
106.50
107.01
107.21
107.52
106.82
106.57
106.44
99.31
99.84
100.34
101.22
101.46
101.87
102.32
103.00
118.67
114.23
114.77
114.10
115.14
113.01
111.84
110.62
110.53
110.88
111.87
111.67
112.68
113.31
114.10
114.37
104.76
105.68
106.08
107.38
107.01
107.25
107.55
108.39
108.66
109.53
109.64
111.22
112.06
112.88
113.28
114.27
100.20
100.39
99.49
99.60
99.93
100.17
99.82
99.68
106.44
106.57
107.40
108.23
108.83
109.17
109.73
110.41
105.12
105.63
105.52
105.32
106.10
106.73
106.98
106.99
106.59
106.96
107.67
108.35
108.65
108.99
109.51
110.11
103.33
104.81
106.39
106.18
106.43
107.28
108.46
108.95
109.35
110.09
110.81
111.56
112.36
113.15
113.92
114.70
106.19
106.46
106.70
107.85
107.95
108.28
108.54
109.21
106.22
106.53
106.73
109.03
108.02
108.33
108.58
109.84
106.18
106.42
106.68
107.30
107.92
108.26
108.52
108.92
112.46
105.70

111.36
106.20

112.36
106.64

111.74
107.15

113.22
107.61

113.15
108.09

113.79
108.54

113.81
109.00

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4


15,583.9 15,679.7 15,839.3 15,942.3 15,902.8 16,020.7 16,168.8 16,300.2
13,388.2 13,488.6 13,653.4 13,772.5 13,759.6 13,818.3 13,928.4 14,040.2
153.2
156.2
161.1
158.2
165.4
171.2
177.1
179.2
340.6
349.6
349.7
358.4
360.9
369.1
369.1
373.8
295.0
293.0
295.6
295.8
297.3
297.5
298.8
299.3
574.3
578.4
587.8
578.9
584.7
589.3
594.2
592.0
1,900.0 1,923.9 1,943.0 1,991.5 1,988.2 1,996.3 2,011.6 2,044.2
1,084.8 1,085.6 1,099.0 1,108.4 1,106.9 1,108.7 1,113.9 1,121.8
823.6
844.9
850.9
888.1
881.2
887.5
897.7
922.4
884.1
886.7
902.4
917.7
915.6
916.7
923.5
935.5
901.1
897.7
908.2
902.6
912.8
918.3
926.3
927.1
444.8
442.8
448.1
450.8
451.5
452.1
453.4
457.9
788.6
793.9
808.8
820.9
815.2
816.0
825.4
834.6
3,030.8 3,066.4 3,096.8 3,098.1 3,091.4 3,105.7 3,132.7 3,141.8
1,856.6 1,878.4 1,921.5 1,954.1 1,942.5 1,946.8 1,971.1 1,998.4
1,285.8 1,288.3 1,295.3 1,300.3 1,305.6 1,311.5 1,317.9 1,322.0
590.8
588.3
588.7
599.9
601.8
601.0
601.1
607.9
326.2
326.1
326.7
327.0
326.6
326.8
326.3
326.5
2,057.5 2,051.1 2,044.4 2,034.3 2,046.6 2,037.8 2,030.7 2,022.7
663.7
658.2
649.0
639.1
649.8
648.2
642.8
634.8
1,393.7 1,392.9 1,395.4 1,395.3 1,396.9 1,389.6 1,387.9 1,387.8
138.2
140.0
141.5
135.5
96.6
164.6
209.7
237.4
2,985.2 3,026.7 3,061.4 3,105.2 3,099.2 3,125.8 3,151.9 3,189.2
10,400.8 10,458.7 10,588.8 10,663.2 10,660.4 10,692.5 10,776.4 10,850.9
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4
1.15%
2.48%
4.13%
2.63% -0.99%
3.00%
3.75%
3.29%
1.48%
3.03%
4.98%
3.54% -0.37%
1.72%
3.23%
3.25%
133.00%
8.07% 13.15% -7.01% 19.48% 14.68% 14.54%
4.92%
-15.46% 11.00%
0.11% 10.33%
2.82%
9.36%
0.04%
5.16%
3.60% -2.68%
3.60%
0.27%
2.05%
0.28%
1.81%
0.62%
-3.14%
2.89%
6.66% -5.92%
4.09%
3.16%
3.34% -1.42%
8.81%
5.13%
4.03% 10.36% -0.66%
1.63%
3.11%
6.64%
-0.51%
0.30%
5.03%
3.47% -0.52%
0.64%
1.90%
2.85%
20.18% 10.75%
2.87% 18.67% -3.05%
2.89%
4.65% 11.50%
0.77%
1.18%
7.27%
6.96% -0.90%
0.48%
2.99%
5.29%
6.37% -1.50%
4.76% -2.44%
4.60%
2.41%
3.54%
0.36%
2.56% -1.79%
4.87%
2.43%
0.66%
0.48%
1.17%
4.04%
12.45%
2.72%
7.72%
6.12% -2.73%
0.38%
4.67%
4.55%
-2.51%
4.78%
4.02%
0.17% -0.86%
1.87%
3.51%
1.18%
-10.07%
4.78%
9.50%
6.96% -2.36%
0.89%
5.09%
5.64%
2.50%
0.78%
2.19%
1.55%
1.63%
1.84%
1.95%
1.25%
3.53% -1.68%
0.27%
7.83%
1.28% -0.51%
0.06%
4.55%
-4.41% -0.12%
0.74%
0.37% -0.49%
0.28% -0.69%
0.28%
-1.58% -1.24% -1.30% -1.96%
2.45% -1.72% -1.38% -1.58%
-3.48% -3.27% -5.47% -5.96%
6.84% -0.94% -3.31% -4.86%
-0.69% -0.23%
0.72% -0.03%
0.45% -2.07% -0.47% -0.03%
8.92%
-0.66%

5.68%
2.25%

4.67%
5.07%

5.85%
2.84%

-0.77%
-0.11%

3.47%
1.21%

3.39%
3.18%

Note: GDP projections for 2014, under the production approach are subject to greater uncertainty than those made with the
expenditure approach.

Also see:
US - Personal Income and Outlays 2014-2015 Outlook
US Employment Situation 2014-2015 Outlook
US International Trade in Goods and Services
US - Manufacturing Industry - Outlook 2014-2015
SIFMA Mid-Year 2014 Economic Outlook - pdf, 7 pages

4.82%
2.79%

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