China Generic - DDI 2013

China Disadvantage
Negative
Shells
1NC China Econ

Chinas expanding into Latin America---US infl ence is !e" to cro#d them o t Do#d 1$ (Alan, Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation,
Crisis in the America's, http://www.ascfusa.or /content!pa es/"iew/crisisinamericas#
Focused on military operations in the $iddle %ast, nuclear threats in &ran and 'orth (orea, and the lo)al threat of terrorism,
U%S%
polic"ma!ers have neglected a gro#ing challenge right here in the &estern 'emisphere( the expanding infl ence and reach of China%) %yein ener y resources to *eep its economy hummin , China is engaged in a fl rr" of investing and spending in Latin America%) &n Costa +ica, China is fundin a ,-../0)illion up rade of the country1s oil refinery2
)an*rollin an ,340million soccer stadium2 )ac*in infrastructure and telecommunications impro"ements2 and pourin millions into a new police academy. 5 &n Colom)ia, China is plannin a massi"e dry canal to lin* the country1s 6acific and Atlantic coasts )y rail. At either terminus, there will )e Chinese ports2 in )etween, there will )e Chinese assem)ly facilities, lo istics operations and distri)ution plants2 and on the 6acific side, there will )e dedicated )erths to ship Colom)ian coal out)ound to China. 5 &n mid07anuary, a Chinese0)uilt oil ri arri"ed in Cu)a to )e in drillin in Cu)a1s swath of the 8ulf of $e9ico. +euters reports that Spanish, +ussian, $alaysian and 'orwe ian firms will use the ri to e9tract Cu)an oil. For now, China is focusin on onshore oil e9traction in Cu)a. 5 'ew offshore disco"eries will soon catapult :ra;il into a top0fi"e lo)al oil producer. <ith some 43 )illion )arrels of reco"era)le oil off its coast, :ra;il e9pects to pump /.= million )arrels per day )y .>.>, as the <ashin ton ?imes reports, and China has used enerous loans to position itself as the prime )eneficiary of :ra;ilian oil. China1s state0run oil and )an*in iants ha"e in*ed technolo y0transfer, chemical, ener y and real0estate deals with :ra;il. 6lus, as the ?imes details, China came to the rescue of :ra;il1s main oil company when it sou ht financin for its massi"e drillin plans, pourin ,-> )illion into the pro@ect. A study in 7oint Force Auarterly (7FA# adds that :ei@in plun*ed down ,4.- )illion for a slice of :ra;il1s "ast offshore oil fields. 5 ?he 7FA study re"eals @ust how deep and wide :ei@in is spreadin its financial influence in Batin America: ,.3 )illion in loans to Cene;uela2 a ,-D.40)illion commitment to de"elop Cene;uelan oil reser"es2 ,- )illion for %cuadoran oil2 ,/./ )illion to de"elop 6eru"ian mines2 ,-> )illion to help Ar entina moderni;e its rail system2 ,4.- )illion to purchase Ar entina1s petroleum company outri ht. ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes adds that :ei@in has lent %cuador ,- )illion to )uild a hydroelectric plant. 5 ?here is ood and )ad to :ei@in 1s increased interest and in"estment in the <estern Femisphere. &n"estment fuels de"elopment, and much of Batin America is happily acceleratin
Chinas riches come #ith strings%) For instance, in e9chan e for Chinese de"elopment funds and loans, *ene+ ela agreed to increase oil shipments to China from 43>,>>> )arrels per day to one million )arrels per day. &t1s worth
de"elopment in the economic, trade, technolo y and infrastructure spheres. :ut notin that the Con ressional +esearch Ser"ice has reported concerns in <ashin ton that Fu o Cha"e; mi ht try to supplant his G.S. mar*et with China. 8i"en that Cene;uela pumps an a"era e of -.H million )arrels of oil per day for the G.S.Ior a)out --
,hat -rings s to the sec rit" dimension of Chinas chec!-oo! diplomac" in the <estern Femisphere.5 Jfficials with the G.S. Southern Command conceded as early as .>>D that .ei/ing had 0approached ever" co ntr" in o r area of responsi-ilit"1 and provided militar" exchanges2 aid or training to %cuador, 7amaica, :oli"ia, Cu)a, Chile and Cene;uela.5 ?he 7FA study adds that China has 0an important and gro#ing presence in the regions military institutions. $ost Batin American
percent of net oil importsIthe results would )e de"astatin for the G.S. 5 nations, includin $e9ico, send officers to professional military education courses in the 6+C. &n %cuador, Cene;uela and :oli"ia, :ei@in has )e un to sell sophisticated hardwareKsuch as radars and (03 and $A0D> aircraft. ?he 7FA report concludes, ominously, that Chinese defense firms are li*ely to le"era e their e9perience and a rowin trac* record for their oods to e9pand their mar*et share in the re ion, with the secondary conseLuence )ein that those purchasers will )ecome more reliant on the associated Chinese lo istics, maintenance, and trainin infrastructures that support those products. 5 6ut it all to ether, and the southern flan* of the Gnited States is e9posed to a ran e of new security challen es. 5 ?o )e sure, much of this is a function of China1s desire to secure oil mar*ets. :ut there1s more at wor* here than China1s thirst for oil. Bi*e a lo)al chess match, China is pro)in Batin America and sendin a messa e that @ust as <ashin ton has trade and military ties in China1s nei h)orhood,
China is developing trade and militar" ties in Americas neigh-orhood %) ?his is

a direct challen e to G.S. primacy in the re ionIa challen e that must )e answered. 5 First, <ashin ton needs to relearn an o)"ious truthIthat China1s rulers do not share America1s "aluesIand needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that conte9t. 5 :ei@in has no respect for human ri hts. +ecall that in China, an estimated 40H million people are rottin away in lao ai sla"e0la)or camps, many of them uilty of political dissent or reli ious acti"ity2 democracy acti"ists are rounded up and imprisoned2 freedom of speech and reli ion and assem)ly do not e9ist2 and internal security forces are i"en shoot0to0*ill orders in dealin with unarmed citi;ens. &ndeed, :ei@in "iewed the Ara) Sprin uprisin s not as an impetus for political reform, )ut as reason to launch its harshest crac*down on dissent in at least a decade, accordin to Mirector of 'ational &ntelli ence 7ames Clapper. 5 &n short, the ends always @ustify the means in :ei@in . And that ma*es all the difference when it comes to forei n and defense policy. As +ea an
the U%S% m st stop ta!ing the &estern 'emisphere for granted2 and instead must reengage in its o#n neigh-orhood economicall"2 politically and militarily%) ,hat means no more allo#ing trade dealsIand the partners countin on themIto lang ish% 6lans
counseled durin the Cold <ar, ?here is no true international security without respect for human ri hts. 5 Second,
trade-expansion agreements with 6anama #ere left in lim-o for years, )efore 6resident J)ama finally si ned them into law in .>--.5 3eengagement means reviving U%S% diplomac"% ?he <all Street 7ournal reports that due to
for a hemispheric free trade ;one ha"e faltered and foundered. ?he and Colom)ia political wran lin in <ashin ton, the State Mepartment position focused on the <estern Femisphere has )een staffed )y an interim for nearly a year, while si9 <estern Femisphere am)assadorial posts (Gru uay, Cene;uela, %cuador, %l Sal"ador, 'icara ua and :ar)ados# remain empty.5 +een a ement means re"ersin plans to slash defense spendin . ?he 7oint Forces Command noted in .>>3 that China has a deep respect for G.S. military power. <e cannot o"erstate how important this has )een to *eepin the peace. :ut with the Gnited States in the midst of massi"e military retrenchment, one wonders how lon that reser"oir of respect will last.5 +een a ement also means re"itali;in security ties. A ood model to follow mi ht )e what1s happenin in China1s )ac*yard. ?o deter China and pre"ent an accidental war, the G.S. is re"i"in its security partnerships all across the Asia06acific re ion.
4erhaps its time to do the same in Latin America% &e sho ld remem-er that man" Latin American co ntriesIfrom $e9ico and 6anama to Colom)ia and ChileI-order the 4acific% 8i"en :ei@in 1s actions2 it ma!es sense to -ring these Latin American partners on the 6acific +im into the alliance of alliances that is already sta)ili;in the Asia06acific re ion.5 Finally, all of this needs to -e part of a revived 5onroe Doctrine %) 6oc sing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas, this $onroe Moctrine ..> #o ld ma!e it clear to .ei/ing that the United States welcomes China1s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas )ut disco rages an" claims of control7implied or explicit7-" China over territories2 properties or facilities in the Americas% &n addition, <ashin ton should ma*e it
clear to :ei@in that the American people would loo* unfa"ora)ly upon the sale of Chinese arms or the )asin of Chinese ad"isors or military assets in the <estern Femisphere.5 &n short, what it was true in the -=th and .>th centuries must remain true in the .-st: ?here is room for only one reat power in the <estern Femisphere.
,he plan limits Chinas infl ence in the region restarts U%S% Latin ,ies 4ham 18
NMr. 7. 6eter 6ham is senior "ice president of the 'ational Committee on American Forei n 6olicy and the incomin editor of American Forei n 6olicy &nterests., China1s Strate ic 6enetration of Batin America: <hat &t $eans for G.S. &nterests, .>->, American Forei n 6olicy &nterests, 4.: 4D4O43-P Clinton tellin an audience of Forei n Ser"ice officers durin a town hall fo nd the gains that China #as ma!ing in Latin America 99: ite dist r-ing.11 She went on to add, QQ& mean the" are - ilding ver" strong economic and political connections%%%% ; dont thin! thats in o r interest.113H 'o# then2 in the face of Chinas gro#ing commercial and political relationships across the re ion, mi ht American interests )e sec red and2 indeed2 advancedR First, G.S% polic"ma!ers need to ac!no#ledge that Americas Latin American and Cari--ean neigh-ors matter to the United States not only for its traditional security interest in limiting the infl ence of o tside po#ers in the Americas )ut also )ecause
All of this led to Secretary of State Fillary +odham meetin at the State Mepartment last year that she lo)ali;ation has accelerated the momentum for the increased inte ration of all of the nations in the <estern Femisphere and re ional cooperation is reLuired to meet a whole host of transnational challen es ran in from spurrin economic rowth to ille al
it is in the interests of the United States to rene# relations with the countries to its south )y de"elopin and artic lating a comprehensi"e strate y that clearl" p ts to rest the legac" of 99-enign neglect of
immi ration to narcotics traffic*in to en"ironmental issues. Fence the re ion. Second, rather than lament the passin of an era when the Gnited States unilaterally dictated the terms of en a ement with its Batin American nei h)ors, shaped its past113D
the fact that the region is 99shaping its f t re far more than it o ght to -e #elcomed% Engaging Latin American governments and peoples on mutually a reea)le terms is )y far a more s staina-le fo ndation for #hat o ght to -e the goals of U%S% polic" in the region( the sta)ility, security, and, ultimately, prosperity of the
nations of the <estern Femisphere. <hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of the re ion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challen es impose upon G.S. policy, it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest e9pectations and )etter tar etin of a"aila)le resources. &n its en a ements with its Batin American and Cari))ean nei h)ors, the Gnited States should pri"ile e )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. ?hird, despite China1s efforts to secure access to Batin America1s natural resources and mar*ets, the re ion remains an important source of ener y and other commodities for the Gnited States as well as a ma@or mar*et for American oods and ser"ices. A)out .H percent of G.S. ener y imports come from Central and South American
countries and the re ion )uys .> percent of all of G.S. e9ports, more than the %uropean Gnion. ?han*s to pro9imity as well as
U%S% - sinesses still have a comparative advantage over overseas competitors in the mar*ets of the <estern Femisphere.3S ?hus the administration m st recommit itself to )uildin on those solid foundations to reinforce and expand Americas economic ties #ith its neigh-ors to the so th% &n his .>-> State of the Gnion address, 6resident J)ama sin led out Colom)ia and 6anama as QQ*ey partners11 with which he promised to stren then trade relations.33 Eet a-sent proactive &hite 'o se leadership, the free trade agreements with those two countries have still not -een ratified, while the 'orth American Free ?rade A reement that came into force under 6resident :ill Clinton was
lon standin familiarity, undermined )y last year1s enactment of a measure cancelin a pilot pro ram that allowed carefully screened $e9ican truc*s to carry car o in the Gnited States. $o"ement to repeal G.S. tariffs on :ra;ilian ethanol and to settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween <ashin ton and :rasilia, especially since the <orld ?rade Jr ani;ation has already ruled the su)sidies ille al and, in a rare mo"e, authori;ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions a ainst American products.3=
Chinese infl ence in the region !e" to the glo-al econom" and regime sta-ilit" preventing US infl ence !e" Ellis 11
N+. %"an, Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity.Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America, -st Luarter .>--, http://www.ndu.edu/press/li)/ima es/@fL0 D>/7FAD>!3H0=-!%llis.pdfP Latin American mar!ets are )ecomin increasin ly val a-le for Chinese companies )ecause the" allo# the 43C to e9pand and diversif" its export -ase at a time #hen economic gro#th is slo#ing in traditional mar!ets such as the Gnited States and %urope. ,he region has also pro"en an effective mar!et for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, higher val e added prod cts in sectors seen as strate ic, such as
Access to Batin American $ar*ets. automo)iles, appliances, computers and telecommunication eLuipment, and aircraft. &n e9pandin access for its products throu h free trade accords with countries such as Chile, 6eru, and Costa +ica, and penetratin mar*ets in Batin American countries with
the 43C has often had to overcome esta-lished interests in those nations. &n doin so, the hopes of access to Chinese mar*ets and in"estments amon *ey roups of - sinesspeople and government officials in those nations have pla"ed a !e" role in the political #ill to overcome the resistance. &n Cene;uela, it was said that the prior Chinese am)assador to Cene;uela, Then ?uo,
e9istin manufacturin sectors such as $e9ico, :ra;il, and Ar entina,
resistance -"
or ani;ed and often politically well0connected
was one of the few people in the country who could call 6resident ChU"e; on the telephone and et an instant response if an issue
China has applied more e9plicit press res to ind ce Latin America to !eep its mar!ets open to Chinese oods. &t has specifically protested measures )y the Ar entine and $e9ican o"ernments that it has seen as
arose re ardin a Chinese company. 6rotection of Chinese &n"estments in and ?rade Flows from the +e ion. At times,
protectionist: and, in the case of Ar entina, as informal retaliation, China )e an enforcin a lon standin phytosanitary re ulation, causin almost ,. )illion in lost soy e9ports and other dama es for Ar entina.-/ China has also used its economic wei ht to help secure ma@or pro@ects on preferential terms. &n the course of ne otiatin a ,-.S )illion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair Fydroelectric plant in %cuador, the a)ility of the Chinese )idder SinoFidro to self0finance 3H percent of the pro@ects throu h Chinese )an*s helped it to wor* around the traditional %cuadorian reLuirement that the pro@ect ha"e a local partner. Bater, the %cuadorian o"ernment pu)licly and )itterly )ro*e off ne otiations with the Chinese, only to return to the )ar ainin ta)le . months later after failin to find satisfactory alternati"es. &n Cene;uela, the ChU"e; o"ernment a reed, for e9ample, to accept half of the ,.> )illion loaned to it )y the 6+C in Chinese currency, and to use part of that currency to )uy ..=,>>> consumer appliances from the Chinese manufacturer Faier for resale to the Cene;uelan people. &n another deal, the 6+C loaned Cene;uela ,4>> million to start a re ional airline, )ut as part of the deal, reLuired Cene;uela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.-H 6rotection of Chinese 'ationals. As with the Gnited States and other <estern countries, as China )ecomes more in"ol"ed in )usiness and other operations in Batin America, an increasin num)er of its nationals will )e "ulnera)le to ha;ards common to the re ion, such as *idnappin , crime, protests, and related pro)lems. ?he hei htened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern @un le re ion of %cuador, for e9ample, has )een associated with a series of pro)lems, includin the ta*eo"er of an oilfield operated )y the Andes petroleum consortium in ?arapoa in 'o"em)er .>>D, and protests in Jrellana related to a la)or dispute with the Chinese company 6etroriental in .>>S that resulted in the death of more than 4H police officers and forced the declaration of a national state of emer ency. &n .>>/, ethnic Chinese shop*eepers in Calencia and $aracay, Cene;uela, )ecame the focus of "iolent protests associated with the Cene;uelan recall referendum. As such incidents increase 2
the 43C #ill need to rel" increasingl" on a com)ination of good#ill and fear to deter action a ainst its personnel, as #ell as its infl ence #ith governments of the region, to resolve s ch pro-lems #hen
the" occ r.,he rise of China is intimately tied to the glo-al econom" thro gh trade2 financial2 and information flo#s2 each of #hich is highl" dependent on glo-al instit tions and cooperation. .eca se of this, some within the 43C leadership see the co ntr"s s stained gro#th and development, and th s the sta-ilit" of the regime2 threatened if an actor s ch as the United States is a-le to limit that cooperation or -loc! glo-al instit tions from s pporting Chinese interests% ;n Latin America2 Chinas attainment of o-server stat s in the JAS in .>>/ and its acceptance into the &AM: in .>>= #ere efforts to o)tain a seat at the ta)le in *ey re ional institutions, and to !eep them from -eing sed 0against1 Chinese interests% &n addition, the 43C has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese mar!ets )y Chile, 6eru, and Costa +ica to sec re -ilateral free trade agreements , #hose practical effect is to move Latin America a#a" from a U%S%-dominated trading -loc! (the Free ?rade Area of the Americas# in #hich the 43C #o ld have -een disadvantaged%
Econ decline ca ses #ar

3<=AL 18 Mirector of Cooperati"e ?hreat +eduction at the G.S. Mepartment of Mefense
N7edediah +oyal, .>->, %conomic &nte ration, %conomic Si nalin and the 6ro)lem of %conomic Crises, in %conomics of <ar and 6eace: %conomic, Be al and 6olitical 6erspecti"es, ed. 8oldsmith and :rauer, p. .-40.-HP
Bess intuiti"e is how periods of economic decline may increase the li*elihood of e9ternal conflict. 6olitical science literature has contri)uted a moderate de ree of attention to the impact of
6ollins (.>>3- ad"ances $odcls*i and ?hompson's (-==D# wor* on leadership cycle theory, findin that
economic decline and the security and defence )eha"iour of interdependent stales. +esearch in this "ein has )een considered at systemic, dyadic and national le"els. Se"eral nota)le contri)utions follow. First, on the systemic le"el.
rhythms in the lo)al economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre0eminent power and the often )loody transition from one pre0eminent leader to the ne9t . As such, e9o enous shoc*s such as economic crises could usher in a redistri)ution of relati"e power (see also 8ilpin. -=S7# that leads to uncertainty a)out power )alances , increasin the ris* of miscalculation (Fcaron. -==H#. Alternati"ely, e"en a relati"ely certain redistri)ution of power could lead to a permissi"e en"ironment for conflict as a risin power may see* to challen e a declinin power (<erner. -===#. Separately. 6ollins
(-==D# also shows that lo)al economic cycles com)ined with parallel leadership cycles impact the li*elihood of conflict amon ma@or, medium and small powers, althou h he su ests that the causes and connections )etween lo)al economic conditions and security conditions remain un*nown. Second, on a dyadic le"el. Copeland's (-==D. .>>># theory of trade e9pectations su ests that 'future e9pectation of trade' is a si nificant "aria)le in understandin economic conditions and security )eha"iour of states. Fe ar ues that interdependent states arc li*ely to ain pacific )enefits from trade so lon as they ha"e an optimistic "iew of future trade relations. Fowe"er,
if the e9pectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as ener y resources, the li*elihood for conflict increases, as states will )e inclined to use force to ain access to those resources . Crises could potentially )e the tri er
for decreased trade e9pectations either on its own or )ecause it tri states./ ?hird, ers protectionist mo"es )y interdependent
others ha"e considered the lin* )etween economic decline and e9ternal armed conflict at a national le"el. $om )er and Fess (.>>.# find a stron correlation )etween internal conflict and e9ternal conflict , particularly durin periods of economic downturn. ?hey write. ?he lin*a e, )etween internal and e9ternal conflict and prosperity are stron and mutually reinforcin . %conomic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the fa"our. $oreo"er, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the e9tent to which international and e9ternal conflicts self0reinforce each other (FlomhenR V Fess. .(->.. p. W=X %conomic decline has also )een lin*ed with an increase in the li*elihood of terrorism (:lom)cr . Fess. V <ee ra pan a, .>>/#. which has the capacity to spill across )orders and lead to e9ternal tensions . Furthermore, crises enerally reduce the popularity of a sittin o"ernment .
YMi"ersionary
theoryY su ests that, when facin unpopularity arisin from economic decline, sittin o"ernments ha"e increased incenti"es to fa)ricate e9ternal military conflicts to create a 'rally around the fla ' effect. <an (-==D#, Mc+oucn
(-==H#, and :lom)cr . Fess, and ?hac*er (.>>D# find supportin e"idence showin that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti# correlated. 8elpi (-==S#. $iller (-===#. and (isan ani and 6ic*erin (.>>=# su est that &he tendency towards di"ersionary tactics arc reater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are enerally more suscepti)le to )ein remo"ed from office due to lac* of domestic support. Me+ouen (.>>># has pro"ided e"idence showin that periods of wea* economic performance in the Gnited States, and thus wea* 6residential popularity, are statistically lin*ed lo an increase in the use of force. &n summary, rcccni economic scholarship positi"ely correlates economic inte ration with an
increase in the freLuency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship lin*s economic decline with e9ternal conflict al systemic, dyadic and national le"els.' ?his implied
connection )etween inte ration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic0security de)ate and deser"es more attention.
>oes glo-al
?amins!i @
(Antoni T., 6rofessor O &nstitute of 6olitical Studies, <orld Jrder: ?he $echanics of ?hreats (Central %uropean 6erspecti"e#, 6olish Auarterly of &nternational Affairs, -, p. H3# As already ar ued, the economic ad"ance of China has ta*en place with relati"ely few correspondin chan es in the political system, althou h the operation of political and economic institutions has seen some ma@or chan es. Still, tools are missin that would allow the esta)lishment of political and le al foundations for the modem economy, or they are too wea*. ?he tools are efficient pu)lic administration, the rule of law, clearly defined ownership ri hts, efficient )an*in system, etc. For these reasons, many e9perts fear
China. Considerin the importance of the state for the de"elopment of the ha"e serious lo)al repercussions. &ts political ramifications could )e no less dramatic owin
issues in %ast Asia (disputes o"er islands in the China Sea and the 6acific#.
an economic crisis in lo)al economy, the crisis would
to the special position the military occupies in the Chinese political system, and the e9istence of many potential "e9ed
A potential hot)ed of conflict is also ?aiwan's status. %conomic recession and the related desta)ili;ation of internal policies could lead to a political, or e"en military crisis. ?he li*elihood of the lo)al escalation of the conflict is hi h, as the interests of +ussia, China, 7apan, Australia and, first and foremost, the GS clash in the re ion.
1NC ,ai#an
U%S%

immi ration to narcotics traffic*in to en"ironmental issues. Fence the re ion. Second, rather than lament the passin of an era when the Gnited States unilaterally dictated the terms of en a ement with its Batin American nei h)ors, shaped its past113D
nations of the <estern Femisphere. <hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of the re ion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challen es impose upon G.S. policy, it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest e9pectations and )etter tar etin of a"aila)le resources. &n its en a ements with its Batin American and Cari))ean nei h)ors, the Gnited States should pri"ile e )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. ?hird, despite China1s efforts to secure access to Batin America1s natural resources and mar*ets, the re ion remains an important source of ener y and other commodities for the Gnited States as well as a ma@or mar*et for American oods and ser"ices. A)out .H percent of G.S. ener y imports come from Central and South American
countries and the re ion )uys .> percent of all of G.S. e9ports, more than the %uropean Gnion. ?han*s to pro9imity as well as
Chinese infl ence !e" to prevent ,ai#an independence Li 8@

NFe Bi, 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e, :oston %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP Latin America has -een a ma/or -attlegro nd of the 0foreign polic" #ar1 -et#een China and ,ai#an over international legitimac"2 recognition2 and stat s% Chinas : est to recover what it calls the pro"ince of ,ai#an is one of the top iss es on its foreign polic" agenda% &ts strate y a ainst ?aiwan has )een )oth )ilateral and lo)al. :ilaterally, China has sed a mi9 of economic diplomac" and military and political mo"es to !eep ,ai#an from claiming independence% 8lo)ally, Chinas strateg" has foc sed on developing an international nited front desi ned to marginali+e ,ai#an. Fearin ?aiwan1s push for international recognition #ill lead to its declaration of independence2 .ei/ing is determined to contain ,ai#an in e"ery corner of the world, especially in Central America and the Cari--ean2 the stronghold of ,ai#an%?aiwan
has .4 million people and well protected territory. Eet, of the Gnited 'ations1 -=4 mem)er states, only .4 reco ni;e ?aiwan as a
<f the $A co ntries that recogni+e ,ai#an2 1$ are in Latin America and the Cari--ean% ?aiwan has )een de"otin enormous efforts to retain diplomatic reco nition. ;f these states were to s#itch recognition from ,aipei to .ei/ing, the dama e to ?aiwan1s political conZdence and its claims of legitimac" as a state #o ld -e seriously ndermined. Accordin to then0prime minister of ?aiwan Eu Shyi0*un in .>>., ?aiwan1s allies in Latin America and the Cari))ean have helped us a lot and therefore we consider this an area of maxim m diplomatic importance %1. Gnder such circumstances, the strategic competition -et#een China and ,ai#an has -een intensiBed in a region far a#a" from Asia%
so"erei n state.
,ai#an independence #ill spar! US-China N !e #ar Lo#ther2 staff reporter in &ashington D%C%2 $81A
C&illiam2 0?aiwan could spar* nuclear war: report ?aipei ?imes: Jnline: $ar -D, .>-4: http(DD###%taipeitimes%comDNe#sDtai#anDarchivesD$81AD8AD1ED$88AFF@$11G
,ai#an is the most li!el" potential crisis that co ld trigger a n clear #ar -et#een China and the US, a new academic report concludes.5 ,ai#an remains the single most pla si-le and dangero s so rce of tension and conflict -et#een the US and China, sa"s the /.0pa e report -" the <ashin ton0)ased Center for Strate ic and ;nternational Studies (CS;S#.5 6repared )y the CS&S1 6ro@ect on 'uclear &ssues and resultin from a year0lon study, the report emphasi;es that .ei/ing contin es to -e set on a polic" to prevent ,ai#ans independence, while at the same time the US maintains the
capa-ilit" to come to ,ai#ans defense.5 Altho gh tensions across the ?aiwan Strait have s -sided since )oth ?aipei and :ei@in em)raced a policy of en a ement in .>>3, th e sit ation remains com- sti-le2 complicated -" rapidl" diverging crossstrait militar" capa-ilities and persistent political disagreements2 the report
says.5 &n a footnote, it Luotes senior fellow at the GS Council on Forei n +elations +ichard :etts descri)in ?aiwan as the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia .5 ?he report also Luotes :etts as sayin that neither :ei@in nor <ashin ton can fully control de"elopments that mi ht i nite a ?aiwan crisis. 5 ,his is a classic recipe for s rprise2 miscalc lation and ncontrolled
escalation, :etts wrote in a separate study of his own.5 ?he CS&S study says: For the foreseea)le future ,ai#an is the contingenc" in #hich n clear #eapons #o ld most li!el" -ecome a ma/or factor, )ecause the fate of the island is intert#ined -oth #ith the legitimac" of the Chinese Comm nist 4art" and the relia-ilit" of US defense commitments in the Asia06acific re ion.
>oes glo-al and n clear

' n!ovic H (Bee 7, American $ilitary Gni"ersity, ?he Chinese0?aiwanese Conflict: 6ossi)le Futures of a Confrontation )etween China, ?aiwan and the Gnited States of America, http://www.lamp0method.or /eCommons/ Fun*o"ic.pdf# A war )etween China, ?aiwan and the G nited States has the potential to escalate into a n clear conflict and a third #orld #ar, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could )e affected )y such a conflict, includin 7apan, )oth (oreas, +ussia, Australia, &ndia and 8reat :ritain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the lo)al economy, in which the Gnited States and China are the two most dominant mem)ers. &f China were a)le to successfully anne9 ?aiwan, the
possi)ility e9ists that they could then plan to attac* 7apan and )e in a policy of a and e"en into &ndia, which
ressi"e e9pansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia, as well as the 6acific
could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces to contain the threat. &n any case, if China and the Gnited States en a e in a full0 scale conflict, there are few countries in the world that will not )e economically and/or militarily affected )y it. Fowe"er, China, ?aiwan and Gnited States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine its e"entual
outcome, therefore, other countries will not )e considered in this study.
Uni: eness
1NC Uni: eness

U%S%

$NC Uni: eness

Chinese infl ence is high no# the" are developing trade and militar" ties as a res lt of diminished U%S% foc s thats Do#d Chinese economic infl ence is gro#ing in Latin America2 - t targeted policies can erode dominance Sarmiento-Saher 1A
NSe)astian Sarmiento0Saher is an editorial assistant for ?he Miplomat., China and Batin America: :i :usiness and :i Competition, 4/-//-4, http://thediplomat.com/china0power/china0and0latin0america0)i 0)usiness0and0)i 0 competition/P the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China (43C# no# ran!s as the #orlds second largest econom"% A -"prod ct of this rapid expansion has -een Chinas search for ne# mar!ets and resources to s stain its economic gro#th. <hile there has )een much analysis of its acti"ity in Africa and Central Asia, another region of gro#ing importance for China is Latin America . &t is not without serious challen es or difficulties that Latin America and the Cari))ean (BAC# are radually emer in as a re ion of sta)le economic de"elopment. Althou h BAC is not a sin le country, many of its independent states have an andance of nat ral reso rces and emer in manufacturin and ser"ice sectors that are pro/ected to achieve solid gro#th in the comin years. Latin Americas prospects have attracted serious attention, especially from Chinese firms and policyma*ers *een to )enefit from rowin opportunities and access to raw materials in BAC. Gnder 6resident Fu 7intao China deepened its ties #ith Latin American co ntries throu h initiati"es li*e the .>>3 Asia06acific %conomic Cooperation (A6%C# summit in Bima, 6eru. China1s new 6resident, Ii Jinping2 is also no stranger to the region after ha"in made se"eral state "isits there as "ice president. Accordin to :ar)ara
Mespite a slowdown in China1s impressi"e economic rowth, Stallin s, Chinese e9ports to Batin America rew su)stantially from G.S. ,D.= )illion in .>>> to G.S. ,D=.S )illion in .>>32 while BAC e9ports to China increased from G.S. ,H.4 )illion in .>>> to G.S. ,S>.4 )illion in .>>3. Fowe"er, despite these dramatic increases of =-> percent and -,..D percent, the Gnited States and the %G are still ahead of China in terms of trade flows with Batin America.
China is : ic!l" catching p to man" of LACs traditional trading partners, howe"er. Already Chinas trade n m-ers #ith LAC have s rpassed those of Japan, the pre"iously dominant Asian tradin partner for Batin America. <hat is most si nificant a)out these de"elopments o"erall is how rapidl" Chinese - sinesses and organi+ations have expanded their activit" in the region O a trend that contin es to gro#. &n terms of forei n direct in"estment (FM&#, a study )y %nriLue Mussel 6eters found that Batin America received 11%K1 percent of total Chinese 6D; from .>>>0.>-- O ma*in the re ion the second largest recipient of Chinese FM& )ehind only Fon (on . %choin the speed of the trade increases a)o"e, Chinese in"estment in Batin America ,hese investments come in addition to massive loan credits 5 ch of the trade2 investment2 and loans from the 43C have -een foc sed on the co ntries2 companies2 and infrastr ct re that nderpin the extraction of nat ral reso rces and other commodities in the region. ?his has )een ood news for the lar e a ricultural, minin , and ener y industries of Batin America, as well as for
e9panded Sino0Batin American economic relationship ha"e )een mi9ed.
@umped from - to = percent of total FM& in BAC from .>>3 to .>->2 thus ma*in the 6+C the third lar est in"estor in Batin America )ehind only the 'etherlands and the Gnited States that year. which, accordin to a report )y researchers at ?ufts Gni"ersity, ha"e topped G.S. ,SH )illion since .>>H and may account for appro9imately half of the 6+C1s lendin a)road from .>>=0.>->. ?he results of this
countries li*e Chile and Cene;uela. Jn the ne ati"e side, howe"er, this has raised Luestions a)out Batin American dependence on resource e9ports and the specter of Mutch disease. Another ad"erse effect is the rowin resentment amon some Batin Americans in some sectors that ha"e )een increasin ly displaced )y China1s industrial or manufacturin e9ports to BAC. $e9ico has )een amon the hardest hit amon countries in the <estern hemisphere as its lar e industrial )ase has stru led to compete with Chinese manufacturin in a diminished, post0financial crisis G.S. mar*et. Chinese e9ports to $e9ico ha"e also undercut indi enous industry and resulted in a su)stantial trade deficit. China1s competiti"eness has complicated the Sino0BAC honeymoon period in recent years. $ost nota)ly, :ra;il1s o"ernment has )een forced to mana e a sensiti"e )alancin act, fosterin lucrati"e relations with China while addressin the frustration of :ra;ilian manufacturin industries that stru le a ainst cheaper Chinese oods. Ba)or mo"ements and en"ironmental roups ha"e also )e un to ta*e a stand a ainst the e9tracti"e industries of countries li*e 6eru and Chile, whose e9ports and rowth are tied closely to the 6+C1s demand for resources. Mespite these issues,
Chinas comparative advantage ma" -e eroding d e to increased prod ction costs

recent e9ternal and internal de"elopments may )e creatin an opportunity for the re ion to )alance its rowin economic relations with China. 'ota)ly, and :ei@in 1s desire to lead its economy toward hi her0end manufacturin and domestic consumption. &f this trend continues, it would help )elea uered $e9ico, whose security and
% Using targeted policies2 other co ntries #ith man fact ring sectors ma" -enefit from China1s economic restructurin . &n terms
political pro)lems may finally start to impro"e and i"e $e9ican industries a chance to compete on the lo)al sta e
of de"elopment o"erall, alarmism a)out China *eepin BAC economies dependent on natural resources is o"er)lown. As Batin America continues to rapple with deficits in infrastructure, education, and social mo)ility, the Luestion a)out whether rowin economic ties with the 6+C will )e a )urden or a *ey opportunity lies in the actions of Batin America, not China. ?he central issue is a)out o"ernance: those countries that )enefit o"er the lon term from the current commodity )oom will )e the ones most @udicious when it comes to future in"estments and industrial policy. Fi htin corruption is difficult anywhere, and Batin America is no e9ception. As democracy deepens and middle classes emer e in the re ion, new sta*eholders will
As Latin America contin es to develop2 China #ill ndo -tedl" pla" a significant role in its progress and ad"ancement. ?here will continue to )e cases of cooperation and competition )etween BAC countries and the 6+C as their relations mature O )ut as long each side has m ch to offer the other2 the people of -oth Latin America and China have a lot to loo! for#ard to in the e"olution of their So th-So th relations%1
hold o"ernments accounta)le.
Chinese infl ence is high no# the U%S% is slipping
Iiaoxia 1A
L&ang2 Economic <-serverD&orldcr nch2 FDED1A2 ;N A5E3;CAMS .AC?=A3D( C';NAMS 3;S;N> ;N6LUENCE ;N LA,;N A5E3;CA2 http(DD###%#orldcr nch%comDchina-$%8Din-america-8AH-s--ac!"ard-china8AH-s-rising-infl ence-in-latin-americaDforeign-polic"-trade-econom"investments-energ"DcHs11EK@DN China is - s" in AmericaMs -ac!"ard% J"er the past fi"e years, Chinese - sinesses have -een expanding their footprint in Latin America in a num)er of ways, -eginning #ith enhanced trade to ens re a stead" s ppl" of - l! commodities
such as oil, copper and soy)eans. At this year's :oao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Batin American su)0forum was created that
China has o"erta*en the 'etherlands to -ecome Latin Americas second -iggest investor )ehind the Gnited States. China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements #ith Latin American co ntries in such fields as finance, resources and ener y. Accordin to the latest statistics of the 8eneral Administration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade gre# in $81$ to a total of ,.D-.. )illion, a year0on0year increase of 3.-3[. ,his trend ris!s ndermining the position of the United States as Latin Americas single dominant trading partner. &n .>--, the G.S.0Batin American trade
included the participation of se"eral heads of state from the re ion. Since .>--, "olume was ,4H- )illion. Some prominent Chinese ha"e condemned the Gnited States' hi h0profile +eturn to Asia strate y, with its intention of containin China's front door. Shouldn1t the Gnited States, which put forward the $onroe Moctrine two centuries a o, also Luestion how China is Luietly arri"in in America1s )ac*yardR An American )lind spotR &n their )oo* America's :lind Spot:
Cala and $ichael 7. Economides a"oid the usual patter of lin*in South investigate Latin Americas s -tle choice -et#een China and the United States , attri- ting &ashingtonMs #ea!ened infl ence in the region to its fail re in foreign polic" and economic development 00 #hile China rises on the -ac! of glo-ali+ation. Since -3.4, when America put forward the $onroe Moctrine and declared its sphere of influence to
Cha"e;, Jil, and G.S. Security, Andres America1s YChina factorY with some sordid conspiracy theory. &nstead, they %uropeans, it has maintained the uniLue position of the Gnited States in the Americas. $ilitary inter"ention has always ser"ed as the most important tool for the Gnited States. %specially after the start of the Cold <ar, in order to cur) Communism from ta*in root in Batin America, the G.S. used military means lar ely without restraint. After the collapse of the So"iet Gnion, the Gnited States faced
Latin Americas strategic significance has : ic!l" slipped to a secondar" and more local ran!ing. ?he Gnited States has shifted its focus in Batin America to specific issues such as ille al immi ration and dru smu lin . ,he 0realism1 that ran thro gh Americas foreign polic" d ring the Cold &ar has radually transformed to#ards 0idealism21 #hich in conseLuence #ea!ens its infl ence in Latin America. Gnder the doctrine of realism, America )ro*e any illusion of moral constraint in its forei n inter"entions2
new e9ternal challen es such as the threat of lo)al terrorism.
the protection of American interests was its pra matic principle. <ashin ton didn1t care that some Batin American countries were dictatorial or that they "iolated human ri hts, as lon as their leaders firmly stood on the side of the anti0Communist camp. Since adoptin idealism, America considers that whate"er is )est for itself is also )est for the rest of the world. &ts forei n policy is aimed at maintainin democracy, human ri hts and a free mar*et economy around the world. America )e an to demand that its former dictatorial allies Luit their attachment to power and carry out a transition to democracy. Since -=3=, the G.S. has pushed Batin American countries 00 many facin a se"ere de)t crisis 00 to accept the <ashin ton Consensus oriented )y mar*et economy theory. ?he ultimate oal set )y this theory may not )e a pro)lem. Fowe"er, it did not pull Batin America out of the Lua mire of its lost decade of the -=3>s. &n the -==>s, Batin America suffered another se"ere economic downturn, which e9acer)ated the di"ision )etween the rich and the poor 00 leadin to serious social pro)lems. ?he idealism e9ported )y the Gnited States intensified the e9istin contradictions in Batin American society, and e"entually led to the downfall of most of the )rutal totalitarian military o"ernments. China as a new fa"orite &nitially, China1s acti"ities in Batin America were limited to the diplomatic le"el. :y pro"idin funds and assistin in infrastructure constructions, China mana ed to interrupt diplomatic ties )etween poor Batin countries and ?aiwan. Since then,
#ith ChinaMs economic -oom2 the s ppl" of energ" and
reso rces has grad all" -ecome a pro-lem that plag es China 00 and its exchanges #ith Latin America thus are endo#ed #ith real s -stantive p rpose. Amon the numerous needs of China, the demand for oil has always )een the most powerful dri"in force. &n the past 4> years, China has cons med one-third of the #orldMs ne# oil prod ction and
)ecome the world's second0lar est oil importer. $ore than half of China's oil demand depends on imports, which increases the
Latin America and its h ge reserves and prod ction capacit" nat rall" -ecame a destination for China% China must )etter protect its ener y supply, and can't @ust play the simple role of consumer. &t must also help solidify the important lin*s of the petroleum industry supply chain. &ndeed, the China National 4etrole m Corporation fre: entl" appears in Latin American co ntries , and China1s in"estment
insta)ility of its ener y security. Mi"ersification is ine"ita)le. &n this conte9t, and trade in the Batin American countries are also focused on its ener y sector. &n the opinion of many %uropean and American scholars, China's current practice isn1t much different from that of <estern coloni;ers of the last century. ?hese scholars )elie"e
All China is interested in is esta-lishing long-term2 sta-le economic relations% ,his realistic path is e9actly opposite to that of AmericaMs ne#fo nd idealism% ?hus China has
that China doesn1t care a)out local human ri hts or the state of democracy when dealin with countries. )ecome a close colla)orator of certain Batin American countries, such as Cene;uela, that are in sharp conflict with the Gnited States.
China ;nfl ence 'igh 4op larit"

,he Latin American p -lic loves China <lson KD$
N%ric, <ilson Center, China seen fa"ora)ly in Batin America, //./-4, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /article/latin0american0pro ram0the0news0china0seen0 fa"ora)ly0latin0americaP Large ma/orities of people in co ntries across Latin America and the Cari))ean -elieve China has at least Ysome infl enceO in their region and most see that infl ence as positive, accordin to a sur"ey partly funded )y the Gnited States o"ernment. ,he vie#s on China #ere c lled from a -road assessment of p -lic opinion,
conducted in .>-., that in"ol"ed .D countries and o"er /-,>>> indi"idual inter"iews, researchers said in issuin their findin s at a thin*0tan* seminar in <ashin ton on ?hursday. Jnly .> percent of respondents, on a"era e, in the multinational sur"ey descri)ed China as the Ymost influentialY country in the re ion. &n response to a separate
<f those #ho deemed China Omost infl entialO2 more than t#o-thirds CEP percentG characteri+ed that infl ence as either OpositiveO or Over" positiveY, accordin to the findin s from the
Luestion, .4 percent said they e9pect China to ha"e that status within -> years. Batin American 6u)lic Jpinion 6ro@ect, led )y Cander)ilt Gni"ersity in ?ennessee with fundin from the GS A ency for &nternational Me"elopment, the o"ernment's main conduit for forei n assistance.
Among respondents in the $$ Latin American and Cari--ean co ntries as!ed a-o t China - incl ding2 - t not limited to2 those #ho ran!ed it first in regional infl ence - the nation #as rated ne tral to positive along a 1-to-F scale%
China ;nfl ence 'igh U%S% A-andonment

Chinese infl ence is s rging d e to lac! of American engagement Ch ggani and Lamadrid 1A
N Sumeet Chu ani and +icardo Jrti; 8il Bamadrid, Mia; +eus &n"estin , China1s sur in influence in Batin American finance, 4/-H/-4, http://www.le9olo y.com/li)rary/detail.asp9R \3ScaS.)S0)=e40/S/e0=fH.0 4.e33dc=4>HDP ,he ongoing financial crisis in E rope and the United States contin es to raise red flags for the Latin American )ranches of multinational -an!s. Latin American financial instit tions anticipate that U%S% and E ropean -an!s #ill soon p ll -ac! from their international lending acti"itiesIca sing a su)stantial decrease in the re ion1s o"erall li: idit". As of 7une .>--, %uropean )an*s pro"ided ,.>D )illion in credit lines to their Batin American counterpartsI
ma*in them the lar est pro"iders of e9ternal fundin to the re ion. ?he Gnited States also pro"ides a steady flow of credit lines
A red ction of foreign credit lines #ill red ce the s ppl" of dollar f nding for exporters and increase the premi ms charged -" local financial instit tions. Still, local su)sidiaries of G.S. and %uropean )an*s that are well entrenched in Batin American countries and hold a lar e deposit )ase and copious amounts of local currency will sur"i"e. ,he expected p ll-ac! of American and E ropean -an!s may cause local )an*s in Batin America to adopt a more conser"ati"e approach to credit e9pansion. &t also holds the potential for a detrimental impact on exports flo#ing in and o t of the region. ?he reduction of credit facilities will reLuire Batin American countries to search elsewhere for "alua)le credit lines. &t is a hi hly pro)a)ly that this ne# scenario #ill give Chinese and 7apanese -an!s ne# opport nities to f rther expand their already s rging infl ence in the Latin American regions financial affairs%
throu hout Batin America.
Latin American governments are siding #ith China- lac! of U%S% investment !e"
&atts 1A N7onathon, ?he 8uardian, China's hun er for resources has )i en"ironmental impact in Batin America, 4/.=/-4, http://news.mon a)ay.com/.>-4/>4.=0 en0china0 ama;on0impact.htmlP ,he #orldMs most pop lo s nation has /oined the ran!s of wealthy countries in E rope2 North America and east Asia that ha"e lon consumed and polluted unsustaina)ly. ,his has led to what author $ichael ? (lare calls Ya race for #hatMs leftO and its impact is particularly e"ident in the continent with much of the untapped, unspoiled natural resources. %"en more than Africa, Batin America has -ecome a ma/or foc s of .ei/ingMs drive for commodities. A study last year )y %nriLue Mussel 6eters, a professor at the 'ational Autonomous Gni"ersity of $e9ico, found that the region has -een the leadin destination for Chinese foreign direct investment O mostly for raw materials and )y )i o"ernment0run companies such as Chinalco and C'JJC. Since the .>>3 financial crisis, China has also -ecome the main lender to the region% &n .>->, it pro"ided ,4S )illion (]./ )illion# in loans O more than the <orld :an*2 ;nter-American .an! and the US ;mport-Export .an! com)ined%
$ost of this has one to four primary e9porters O Cene;uela, :ra;il, Ar entina and %cuador O for minin or transport infrastructure. ?he economic )enefits ha"e )een enormous.
,rade -et#een China and Latin America #as / st
Q18 -illion in $888. &n .>--, it had sur ed to ,./- )illion. <hile the distri)ution has "aried enormously from country to country, this helped Latin America avoid the #orst of the financial and
economic crises that gripped m ch of the developed #orld and pro"ided e9tra re"enue for po"erty alle"iation pro rams that ha"e eased the re ion's notorious ineLuality. ;t also pla"ed a ma/or part in )olsterin left0leanin o"ernments that are see!ing an alternative to neoli-eral prescriptions from &ashington and &all Street%
China ;nfl ence 'igh A$( U%S% .igger

Chinese economic ties are A: ino 1$ p d e to U%S% declines
NCarlos, professor of economics at San $arcos 'ational Gni"ersity , China's influence rows in GS' ')ac*yard', D/.H/-., http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/.>-.0>D/.H/content!-HH.>.H..htmP Not so long ago2 Latin America #as considered the O-ac!"ardO of the United States, - t this is no# changing. &n the past decade ChinaMs trade2 investment and economic cooperation #ith the region has increased, challenging the USM position in Latin America% ?he USM importance as a mar!et for Latin American goods #as so -ig that there #as a time it #as said( O&hen the US econom" snee+es2 Latin American co ntries catch a cold%Y :ut as China has no# -ecome a larger export destination for some Latin American co ntries, the same can now )e said of China. For e9ample, its infl ence in the 6eru"ian economy is ver" -ig, to the point that Buis $i uel Castilla, 6eru's finance minister, has said Ythe truth is ; light a little candle ever" da" and pra" that ChinaMs gro#th doesnMt fallY. ChinaMs emergence as an economic po#er and its needs for natural resources and food, which Batin American countries ha"e in a)undance, means China is no# the -iggest trade partner of Ar entina, :ra;il, Chile and 6eru. And China has
free trade a reements with Chile, Costa +ica and 6eru that will enhance that relationship. &n the past decade trade )etween the GS
trade -et#een China and Latin American co ntries gre# 1@ times. Also investment from China is gro#ing at a fast pace% &n lo)al terms, the US is still the -iggest trade partner of the region - t it is onl" a matter of time -efore China claims that role % Batin American countries are
and Batin American countries increased twice )ut the
interested in China not only )ecause it )uys their raw materials at hi her prices, )ut also )ecause they want to sell manufactured oods to the rowin and affluent Chinese middle class, and )ecause they find it easier to do )usiness with China. For e9ample, China lends money to them more easily than institutions such as the <orld :an*, and countries such as Cene;uela and Ar entina that cannot et loans from international )an*s et loans from China, which attaches few conditions to the loans. &n fact, China, throu h entities li*e the %9port0&mport :an* of China and the China Me"elopment :an*, lent more money to Batin American countries in .>-> than the <orld :an*, &nter0American Me"elopment :an* and GS o"ernment put to ether. Another reason for the GS losin its influence in Batin America is that its economy is not doin so well.
&hile Latin American co ntries are gro#ing2 d e in no small part to the demand from China2 the US is facing the same pro-lems Latin American co ntries s ffered $8 "ears ago, namely a )i o"ernment deficit and de)t. ?he GS demanded economic reforms in Batin American countries .>
years a o, and now it is the turn of Batin American countries to demand that the GS do those reforms, mainly slashin spendin . Also o"ernment
Latin American co ntries are not happ" #ith the US -eca se it still opposes C -aMs inte ration in the Jr ani;ation of American States. Also the re ion does not a ree with the GS'
approach to fi htin the dru trade and resol"in the immi ration pro)lem from the re ion to the GS.
Not for long - U%S% is falling and China is gaining Cerna 11

N$ichael, China +esearch Center, China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G.S. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion, //-H/--, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P ." $88@ t#o-#a" trade -et#een China and Latin America had alread" eclipsed Q188 -illion, almost H>[ more than the pre"ious year and three years ahead of schedule. ;n $88P2 t#o-#a" trade and investment reached Q1K8 -illion, with appro9imately ,-.> )illion de"oted to )ilateral trade ($iller, .>>=#. China appears to -e slo#l" closing the gap on the U%S % &n .>>=, Latin American exports to China / mped nine time s, reachin ,/-.4 )illion, almost S[
U%S% exports and imports #ith the entire region are still vastl" greater than Chinas2 - t "ear -" "ear2 China is catching p and in some co ntries2 s rpassing the U%S. %"en thou h China
of all Batin American e9ports, accordin to (e"in 8alla her of ?he 8uardian. has )ecome a ma@or player o"er the past decade, trade )etween the China and Batin America still pales in comparison to Batin American0G.S. trade. +e ional trade with the G.S. totals ,HD> )illion compared to @ust o"er ,-/> )illion in trade with China. :ut the trend is si nificant when loo*in at where China was in .>>> (,-4 )illion# (6ainter, .>>3#. <hen we loo* at Batin American trade o"er the past decade with )oth the G.S. and China, one would find that the percenta e of trade is sli htly shiftin . At the )e innin of the .>>>s the G.S. had more than half of the trade with the re ion2 China had less than ->[ for China. 'ow
the U%S% has ro ghl" the same amo nt of total trade2 - t China is no# nearing -.[. 8oin
)ac* a little further, total G.S. trade in Batin America increased from S..[ in -==D to 3.4[ in .>>= (Forn)ec*, .>--#. Fowe"er, $e9ico is the lar est tradin partner of the G.S., which )rin s that num)er up si nificantly. &f trade with $e9ico throu h 'AF?A is ta*en away, G.S. trade rowth with Batin America is e"en less impressi"e. $eanwhile,
Sino-Latin American trade increased tenfold over the last decade and investment has also increased%
;nfl ence is -ased on perception China is -eating the U%S% Ellis 11

(+. %"an %llis is an Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity. Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America A Case Study, 7FA: 7oint Force Auarterly2.>--st Auarter, &ssue D>, http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese0soft0power0latin0america.html#
&t is also important to clarify that soft po#er is -ased on perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences#, and not necessaril" on o-/ective realit"% Altho gh ChinaMs c rrent trade #ith and investment position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States2A its infl ence in the region is -ased not so much on the current si;e of those acti"ities, )ut rather on hopes or fears in the re ion of #hat it co ld -e in the f t re%) .eca se perception drives soft po#er2 the nat re of the 43C impact on each co ntr" in Latin America is shaped -" its partic lar sit ation2 hopes2 fears2 and prevailing ideolog". ?he Y:oli"arian socialistY re ime of Fu o ChU"e; in *ene+ ela sees China as a po#erf l all" in its cr sade against &estern Oimperialism2O while countries such as 6eru, Chile, and Colom)ia "iew the 6+C in more traditional terms as an important in"estor and tradin partner within the conte9t of lo)al free mar*et capitalism.5 ,he core of Chinese soft po#er in Latin America2 as in the rest of the #orld2 is the #idespread perception that the 43C2 -eca se of its s stained high rates of economic gro#th and technolog" development2 #ill present tremendo s - siness opport nities in the f t re2 and #ill -e a po#er to -e rec!oned #ith glo-all". &n eneral, this perception can -e divided into seven areas() hopes for f t re access to Chinese mar!ets) hopes for f t re Chinese investment) infl ence of Chinese entities and infrastr ct re in Latin America) hopes for the 43C to serve as a co nter#eight to the United States and &estern instit tions) China as a development model) affinit" for Chinese c lt re and #or! ethic) China as Othe #ave of the f t re%O
China ;nfl ence 'igh A$( E rope

E rope is pale in comparison to China De <liveria 1A
NAstrid 6ran e Me Jli"eira, Meutsche <elles, %urope losin out to Chinese conLuista, -/.D/-4, http://www.dw.de/europe0losin 0out0to0chinese0conLuista/a0 -DHH-34.P ChinaMs gro#ing economic presence in Latin America comes at E ropeMs expense. E ropean leaders are tr"ing to ma!e p lost gro nd at this year's annual %G0Batin America Summit in Chile. A -attle for access to Latin AmericaMs mar!ets is -eing #aged- -et#een E rope and Asia. 8erman companies, too, are increasin ly e9posed to Asian
competition. ?hat is why 8erman Chancellor An ela $er*el is set to see* closer ties with her Batin American counterparts at the summit )etween the %G and the Community of Batin American and Cari))ean States (C%BAC# in the Chilean capital Santia o this wee*end (.D0.S.>-..>-4#. Y?he most important Batin American countries ha"e "ery dynamic trade with the countries of the 6acific +im and China,Y said 8^nther $aihold, deputy director of the 8erman &nstitute for &nternational and Security Affairs, who currently teaches at the Fum)oldt &nstitute in $e9ico City. Y?he %uropeans need to consider how to position themsel"es,Y $aihold told M<. Y$ore is e9pected of them than @ust free trade a reements.Y China conLuers Batin America ?en years a o, Asia's presence in Batin America was insi nificant.Chinese and South (orean cars on Batin America's roads were as unthin*a)le as Chinese trains and roads. :ut today, Chinese manufacturers 7AC $otors and C' Auto ha"e set up shop alon with Ssan yon from South (orea 0 and competition for %uropean manufacturers such as C<, Audi or :$< is earin up.YChinese companies sometimes come with "ery attracti"e financin options with which we can not compete,Y said +afael Faddad, head of :ra;il :oard, an association of 8erman companies in"estin in :ra;il, concedes. Chinese companies are increasin ly tryin to )uy up Batin American companies, Faddad
China increased its direct investment in Latin America and the Cari--ean from QE$1 million in $881 to nearl" QKK -illion in $818 (includin in"estment in the Cari))ean
told M<. Y8ermany can't catch upY Accordin to the G' Conference on ?rade and Me"elopment (G'C?AM#,
offshore financial centers#. :y comparison, 8erman direct in"estment in the re ion rew o"er the same period from ,/ )illion to ,H> )illion. Jli"er 6arche, coordinator of the 8erman industry's Batin America &nitiati"e, does not see the rowin competition )etween Asia and %urope as a hu e pro)lem. Y&e cannot catch p #ith the Asian co ntries,Y he says, Y)ut we will certainly impro"e our position in the comin years.Y As Mi"ision Fead for 'orth and South America at the 8erman Cham)er of Commerce and &ndustry (M&F(#, 6arche says he )elie"es there is a Y reat futureY for colla)oration )etween 8erman and Batin American small and mid0si;ed )usinesses.8ermany is still one of the ma@or forei n in"estors in Batin America. ?he production "olume of local 8erman su)sidiaries alone totaled ,-D> )illion in .>->. Accordin to a sur"ey )y the Cham)er of Commerce's Batin American Association, 8erman direct in"estment in Batin America dou)led from .>>- to .>->, from ,4D )illion to ,S. )illion. 8ermany is losin mar*et share Fowe"er, 8ermany's economic influence in Batin America has waned compared to the -==>s. YAfter 8erman reunification, the door opened to the east, and mid0si;ed )usinesses concentrated their resources there,Y 6arche said. &n the -==>s, many Batin American countries em)ar*ed upon radical pri"ati;ation pro rams. :ut 8ermany la ed )ehind its %uropean
Spain -ecame the secondlargest investor after the United States2 #hile >erman" lost mar!et shares%
nei h)ors when it came to )uyin up Batin American companies and resources:
Lin!
1NC Lin!
immi ration to narcotics traffic*in to en"ironmental issues. Fence with its Batin American nei h)ors, shaped its past113D
the re ion. Second, rather than lament the passin of an era when the Gnited States unilaterally dictated the terms of en a ement
nations of the <estern Femisphere. <hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of the re ion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challen es impose upon G.S. policy, it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest e9pectations and )etter tar etin of a"aila)le resources. &n its en a ements with its Batin American and Cari))ean nei h)ors, the Gnited States should pri"ile e )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. ?hird, despite China1s efforts to secure access to Batin America1s natural resources and mar*ets, the re ion remains an important source of ener y and other commodities for the Gnited States as well as a ma@or mar*et for American oods and ser"ices. A)out .H percent of G.S. ener y imports come from Central and South American countries and the re ion )uys .> percent of all of G.S. e9ports, more than the %uropean Gnion. ?han*s to pro9imity as well as
$NC Lin!
,he plan loc!s China o t of Latin America it ca ses a s staina-le fo ndation for relations #ith the U%S% #hich #ill limit the infl ence of o tside po#ers in the region thats 4ham Engagement is perceived as Rero-s m sh ts o t China &atson 8@
NCynthia A. <atson, 6rofessor of Strate y at 'ational <ar Colle e, <ashin ton, M.C. %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP .ei/ing pro)a)ly might not have increased its role in Latin America had the 5iddle East not -een a ma@or distraction for &ashington o"er the past Z"e and a half years.
<ashin ton has wanted :ei@in to moderni;e its economy. ?his was )ound to create more economic, diplomatic, and trade prowess for China as it has reached )eyond the isolationism of the Cultural +e"olution, particularly in the newly lo)ali;ed world. &n many
.ei/ings increased involvement in Latin America reSects the unanticipated conse: ence of ettin #hat the &est hoped for from China. :ut, the ina-ilit" of &ashington to consider an"thing )eyond the concerns a)out terrorism spreadin around the world, and tryin to sal"a e a peace of some sort without nuclear weapons in the $iddle %ast, is having conse: ences for U%S% interests in other parts of the #orld. For cultural and eo raphic reasons, the ties -et#een the United States and Latin America o ght to -e stronger than those -et#een China and the Latins% Expectations of the strength of Latin AmericaU%S% ties have pro-a-l" al#a"s -een nrealistic and fran*ly ahistorical2 the two parts of the world actually ha"e a num)er of fundamental differences. . t the distance -et#een Latin Americas experiences and those of China are even vaster, ran in from reli ion to ethnic homo eneity to historical roles in the world. <ashin ton must ma*e a more concerted effort to act as a gen ine partner #ith the region2 rather than relegating it to the position of secondar" or tertiary thou ht that assumes a)solute G.S. leadership. ,he United States and China claim that each is serio s a-o t adopting the economic philosoph" that ndergirds capitalism: economic gro#th is a net )eneZt for all, not a +ero s m game% &f true, China2 Latin America2 and the United States )eneZ t from the reater Chinese engagement in this re ion )ecause it creates competition. 4 re economic theor", howe"er, always r ns p against political philosophies, leading to trade con_ icts, protectionism, and all0too0often a ;ero sum "iew -ased on the international relations theor" of realpoliti*: #hats good for m" adversar" m st -e -ad for me% ?he ris*s of arousin realpoliti! in the United States, particularly as the nation faces increased frustration with the reality of the $iddle %ast, is si niZ cant, pro)a)ly more than the 43C -argained for #hen it -egan engaging more #ith Latin America o"er the past decade. &t appears unli*ely that :ei@in will
ways, seriously accelerate its in"ol"ement in the re ion )ecause of the num)er of Con ressional hearin s, pu)lic conferences and assessments, and other warnin s alertin the Gnited States to China ha"in disco"ered Batin America. ?o accelerate its in"ol"ement would ris* the relati"ely stron relations with <ashin ton at a time when other trade pro)lems and o"erall concerns a)out China1s rowin power are already risin in the Gnited States. At the same time, &ashingtons a-ilit" to foc s e: all" on all areas of the #orld is not possi-le. &ith U%S% interests directed else#here2 it seems hi hly li!el" that .ei/ing #ill -e a-le to maintain the level of involvement in the region it alread" has2 without <ashin ton raisin too reat a ruc*us. &ndeed, .ei/ings -est o tcome from its c rrent -alance of involvement in the area is pro-a-l" going to -e the long-term development of tr st and ties o"er se"eral decades with the leaders of this re ion, rather than immediately creatin crucial, hi hly pu)lic ties )etween
itself and Batin American leaders. As so often appears true in the international system, pro)a)ly the old tale of the tortoise and hare
Chinas -iggest gain #ill -e accomplished over a long time of getting to !no# the region2 rather than sho#ing p repeatedl" in the 9roc! star role which is too soon and too rash for a lon 0term, sta)le set of ties. <ashin ton seems li*ely to #orr" a-o t the roc! star phenomenon2 rather than attemptin to mana e the emer ence of another
applies here, where state )ecomin a lon 0term partner with its Batin American nei h)ors.
China is -eating the U%S% the reason solel" d e to economic relations 4ham 18
NMr. 7. 6eter 6ham is senior "ice president of the 'ational Committee on American Forei n 6olicy and the incomin editor of American Forei n 6olicy &nterests., China1s Strate ic 6enetration of Batin America: <hat &t $eans for G.S. &nterests, .>->, American Forei n 6olicy &nterests, 4.: 4D4O43-P
Admittedly there is reat "ariation as one e9amines
)ut its lin*s with re imes li*e Fu o Cha`"e;1s with its am)itions to e9port its QQ:oli"arian +e"olution11 and
Chinas relationships with each country in the region, - ild a -road
anti United States coalition

hac*les.DD
in the hemisphereDH certainly do not put American policyma*ers and analysts at ease. From <ashin ton1s perspecti"e, if the Cene;uelan leader1s support for the Castro )rothers1 dictatorship in Cu)a were not )ad enou h, his increasin dalliances with the &slamic +epu)lic of &ran and assorted $iddle %astern ro ues ha"e raised further
,hat the 43C 5inistr" of 6oreign Affairs nonetheless formall" descri-es .ei/ings relations #ith *ene+ ela as -eing a 99 strategic partnershipDS is certainl" not ver" reass ring. Jne Chinese analyst e"en ar ues that the
6+Cshould "iew the Cene;uelan re ime1s schemes opportunistically. ?he current eopolitical atmosphere in the <estern Femisphere seems more conduci"e to Chinese economic e9pansion than restricti"e.
&hat Chinese
polic"ma!ers tr l" #ish to see, and some Batin American leaders are also determined to pursue, is the revival of the Latin American integration pro/ect started )y Simo`n :oli"ar at the )e innin of
the nineteenth century. Fu o Cha`"e; of Cene;uela sees himself as the standard0)earer of a modern "ersion of this concept, as he
;n China, ChaTve+s so-called .olivarian 3evol tion has -eg n to dra# attention, particularly as a potential "ehicle for countries in Batin America to mo"e away from the $onroe Moctrine concept. Should the :oli"arian re ional inte ration proposal ain traction, the first logical priorit" #o ld -e to red ce the regions dependence on the North American mar!et. Fence China1s attracti"eness as an alternati"e mar*et and partner.D3
attempts to ta*e on :oli"ar1s mantle to restart this centuries0old dream.
Engagement !e" to ne trali+e Chinese infl ence leadership is +ero s m .roo!es $88F (6eter ?.+., S%'&J+ F%BBJ<, ?F% F%+&?A8% FJG'MA?&J',
F%A+&'8 JF ?F% <%S?%+' F%$&S6F%+% SG:CJ$$&??%% JF ?F% FJGS% &'?%+'A?&J'AB +%BA?&J'S CJ$$&??%%, Federal 'ews Ser"ice.# China sees its re-emergence as a glo-al po#er on its o#n terms as a certaint"% A s -set of ChinaMs grand strateg" is an opport nistic foreign polic" aimed at its main competitor for preeminence in the international system, the United States% China is pursuin a forei n policy which aims to s pport ChinaMs national interests #hile attempting to )alance, or perhaps more accurately, n-alance the predominance of the United States across the glo-e%) China is loo!ing to : ietl" se its gro#ing economic strength to - ild ne# political relationships a-road #hile exploiting dissatisfaction #ith the United States #herever possi-le . %"entually, in :ei@in 's estimation, once China has gathered as man" allies and friends as possi-le and
<ith increasin ly well de"eloped power deri"ed from economic rowth, political sta)ility and rowin military capa)ility,
it #ill -e a-le to challenge the United States directl" if necessary.5 6ut simply, China is sing its - rgeoning economic po#er to gain political and economic infl ence internationally, at America's e9pense where"er possi)le, in an effort to succeed the Gnited States as the world's most powerful nation. China is p rs ing a OrealistO foreign polic" in order to advance its national interests% ?he e9istence of dissatisfaction #ith &ashington or American policies in lo)al capitals onl" ma!es it easier% ChinaMs grand strateg" certainl" applies to Latin America and the Cari--ean2 too. ?he importance of Batin America and the Cari))ean to China is multifold, )ut t#o iss es predominate( ,ai#an and access to ra# materials2 especiall" energ".5 Jn ?aiwan. ,he 43C #ill not feel its rise to po#er is complete #itho t ret rning ,ai#an to the mainland's political control. As such, China is employin e"ery instrument of its national power to effect unification with ?aiwan, includin an unwillin ness to renounce the use of force to resol"e ?aiwan's future. <ne of ChinaMs tactics is an effort to politicall" isolate ,ai#an internationally -" enticing co ntries that currently diplomatically reco ni;e ?aiwan to shift allegiances to the 43C. <e'"e tal*ed a)out that in Central and Batin America and the Cari))ean as well. For ?aiwan, the states of Central America and the Cari--ean2 and 4arag a" represent a relativel" solid regional commitment to its stat s as a state separate from China . ?his is important to ?aiwan.5
de"eloped its economic and military stren th to near that of other ma@or powers, Jn resources, China's other interest, not surprisin ly, is access to natural resources, especially ener y. ?his has )een well discussed today. Since China's o"ernment is not popularly elected, its claim to le itimacy has )een its a)ility to impro"e the standard of
Sto!ing the economic f rnaces also allo#s China to contin e its nprecedented militar" - ild- p2 s pported primarily -" 3 ssian arms sales2 and to provide overseas aid 00 often without conditions 00 to countries of interest in an effort to spread its infl ence.5 J)"iously petrole m leads the list of reso rces in So th and Latin America and the Cari--ean that China is interested in and we'"e tal*ed a)out that, partic larl" interested in *ene+ ela, %cuador, Ar entina, Colom)ia and 5exico. Murin his "isits to :ra;il and Ar entina, as ha"e )een discussed pre"iously, in 'o"em)er .>>/, Chinese president Fu Jintao anno nced plans to invest Q188 -illion in Latin America o"er the ne9t decade. ,hese investments made )y the Chinese o"ernment will ndo -tedl" -ring political infl ence as well.5 China is also on a military diplomacy offensi"e across the lo)e. China ses militar" exchanges to gather information on the host co ntr" as well as other countries if possi)le for militar" doctrine development as #ell as militar" intelligence purposes. China has militar" and sec rit" interests in Latin America as well. ChinaMs presence at Si nals ;ntelligence facilities in C -a directed at the United States is lon 0standin and #ell !no#n2 - t China is also esta-lishing militar" ties in Latin America as well. For e9ample, in $88K the Chinese Defense minister visited -oth .ra+il and C -a2 ad since the late 1HH8s2 at least one high-level visit has ta!en place ever" "ear to *ene+ ela.5 &n addition, Chinese intelligence services are ndo -tedl" active in Latin America and the Cari--ean2 sing Chinese front companies2 st dents2 visitors and intelligence officers to steal and exploit technolog" and commercial secrets of interest to enhance their militar" pro#ess and economic competitiveness.5 &n conclusion, China has achie"ed unparalleled rowth in its power, influence and importance o"er the last .> years. ;ts grand strateg" is to -ecome the preeminent po#er in the 4acific -- and in the #orld -- replacing the United States as the world's most powerful nation.5 ?hou h that point is not here today, China is ma*in pro ress on )oth accounts. ,he 43C is see!ing friends and alliances to advance its agenda in Asia, %urope, Africa, the $iddle %ast and Latin America. And & commend to the committee, may)e not this su)committee, that they loo*
li"in for the -.4 )illion Chinese people. at China's in"ol"ement in other parts of the world includin Africa which is a "ery interestin study in itself. 5 Bi*e most other nations, China is committed to impro"in the performance of its economy and spreadin its political influence. &ts actions are worrisome in Batin America and the Cari))ean )ecause Fu o
some national leaders2 s ch as *ene+ elaMs Chave+2 #elcome the arrival of another #orld po#er to offer an alternative to the United States.5 ?here are challen es to China's ad"ances in Batin America and the Cari))ean, includin eo raphic pro9imity, culture and lan ua e. :ut if &ashington #ants to ne trali+e
ChinaMs gro#ing infl ence in the #estern hemisphere2 it needs to ta!e action% An effective strateg" #o ld incl de expanding its o#n free trade net#or!2 helping friendl" nations develop strong mar!et economies2 fostering closer2 more cooperative sec rit" relations #ith o r Latin American and Cari--ean neigh-ors%
Lin! A$( Not Rero S m

;ts a "esDno : estion infl ence is +ero-s m Chang 11
N8ordon, Fe is a columnist at For)es.com and the Maily. Fe has i"en )riefin s at the 'ational &ntelli ence Council, the Central &ntelli ence A ency, the State Mepartment, and the 6enta on.China ?a*es on America in a 'Tero0Sum 8ame',--/../--, http://www.worldaffairs@ournal.or /)lo / ordon0 0chan /china0 ta*es0america0;ero0sum0 ameP China can present a more attractive model to the #orld than the United States and therefore #in over allies aro nd the glo-e. ;t is the -attle for peoples hearts and minds that #ill determine #ho event all" prevails21 Ean writes. As China1s
&n Fow China Can Mefeat America, Ean, perhaps :ei@in 1s leadin international relations analyst, ar ues that, e"en without democracy,
ancient philosophers predicted, the country that displays more humane authority will win. &n ma*in his points, Ean distorts Chinese history, misdescri)es the current lo)al situation, and mali ns the Gnited States. Eet alon the way he also performs a "alua)le ser"ice for Americans, i"in them an opportunity to "iew his o"ernment in a more realistic li ht. &n the pro"ocati"e op0ed, a distillation of his recently released )oo*, Ean e9plains that
competition )etween :ei@in and <ashin ton is ine"ita)le %1 And then he ends his piece with this thou ht: Chinas : est to enhance its #orld leadership stat s and Americas effort to maintain its present position is a +ero-s m game%1 Tero0sum competitionR ?hat1s
not the way <ashin ton1s forei n policy specialists see the international system. Since the end of the Second <orld <ar, they ha"e )elie"ed that e"ery nation can )etter its lot with free mar*ets, free trade, and free politics. Chinese leaders ha"e eschewed all three of these <estern concepts, )ut they ha"e appropriated that awful phrase, win0win, and assure us they )elie"e in it. <ith a win0win mind0set, o"ernments around the world ha"e sou ht to en a e China, nurture it, and ease its entry into the international community. 'aturally, the Chinese state has prospered in such a )eni n en"ironment.
instead of accepting the international s"stem as it #as Ithe fond hope of the en a ersI .ei/ing has so ght to pend and replace it #ith something more friendl" to its )rand of authoritarianism. &n short, li)eral institutions are seen as a threat to China1s one0party state, and so it sho ld come as no s rprise that its leaders vie# geopolitics as an ;-#in2 "o -lose proposition%
:ut
U%S% and China have to fight for infl ence there can onl" -e oneU *alencia 1A
N+o)ert, +esearch Fellow at the Council on Femispheric Affairs and is a contri)utin writer for 8lo)al Coices., GS and China: ?he Fi ht for Batin America, S/->/-4, http://www.isn.eth;.ch/Mi ital0Bi)rary/Articles/Metail/Rid\-DD.>=P <-ama and Chinese 6resident Ii 7inpin met in California to discuss cy)er espiona e ed the headlines, the fight for infl ence in another area could )e e"en more importantILatin America. Jther emer in mar*ets in Africa, where China has an o"erwhelmin influence due to forei n direct in"estment in minin and oil, also offer economic opportunities, )ut Latin America has an a- ndance of nat ral reso rces2 greater p rchasing po#er2 and geographic proximit" to the United States, which has long considered Latin America as its 0-ac!"ard%1 ?he *ey Luestion no# is #ill Latin American co ntries lean more to#ard China or the United States, or will it find a way to )alance the two a ainst each otherR +i ht now, Batin
Murin the first wee*end of 7une, G.S. 6resident :arac* and territorial claims in the 6acific +im. <hile tension on these topics has ho American countries are increasin ly confident than*s to )ur eonin economic and political inte ration )y way of tradin )locs, and they're demandin to )e treated as an eLual player. As a si n of its rowin importance,
China and the United States have co rted s al% &n $ay, 6resident :arac* J)ama "isited $e9ico and Costa +ica while Cice 6resident 7oe :iden "isited Colom)ia, :ra;il, and ?rinidad and ?o)a o. Shortly after these trips, 6resident Ii #ent to 5exico and Costa +ica to foster economic cooperation. China1s acti"e in"ol"ement in Batin American eopolitics can )e traced )ac* to .>>=. Chinalco, Latin America more than
China1s lar est minin company, si ned a ,... )illion deal with 6eru to )uild the ?oromocho mine and a ,S> million wharf in the Callao port. Since then, 6eru has sent -3.4 percent of its e9ports to China, ma*in China 6eru1s lar est tradin partner. China1s imports to 6eru, howe"er, ran* second with -4.S percent of the mar*et while the Gnited States holds first place with ./.H percent. China has the upper hand with the Batin American leftist countries in terms of infrastructure and technolo y. &n .>>=, Chinese telephone manufacturer T?% played an instrumental role in assem)lin the first mo)ile phone in
Cene;uela *nown as %l Cer atario (Cene;uela slan for optimal#. Former 6resident Fu o ChU"e; introduced this new phone to low0income families ma*in it the world1s cheapest phone (,D.== for a handset#. Additionally, China landed rail construction pro@ects in Ar entina and Cene;uela and has )ecome a ma@or )uyer of farm products and metal in South America. :etween .>-- and .>-., China purchased nearly H3.>. million tons of soy from Ar entina, up from H. million in .>-- and .>->. China has also maintained an acti"e mar*et with :ra;il. Chinese oil company Sinopec and China Me"elopment :an* offered :ra;ilian oil company 6etro)ras a ,-> )illion loan in .>>= in return for hundreds of thousands of )arrels per day. &n .>--, three Chinese metal companies purchased :ra;ilian minin company Companhia :rasileira de $etalur ia e $ineracao. China1s )oldest mo"e in the re ion is the possi)le construction of a massi"e canal in 'icara ua. 'icara uan 6resident Maniel Jrte a pushed the 'ational Assem)ly to appro"e the multi0)illion dollar plan in 7une. ?he 'icara uan canal would ha"e a lar er draft, len th, and depth than the 6anama and Sue; canals, and the enactment ranted a Fon (on 0)ased company permission to )uild and control the canal for nearly ->> years. ?he appro"al of this plan, howe"er, raised the ire of en"ironmentalists and nei h)orin Colom)ia, which recently lost S>,>>> sLuare *ilometers of its Cari))ean maritime territory to 'icara ua )efore the &nternational Court of 7ustice (&C7#. Bast $ay, Colom)ian diplomat 'oemi Sanin claimed that China had influenced &C71s decision. Accordin to Sanin, Chinese @ustice Wue FanLin *new )eforehand a)out 'icara ua1s intention to rant the canal construction to China since Wue was a collea ue of Carlos Ar uello, a role0player in the maritime case. ?here is no e"idence for this, )ut it shows Colom)ia1s an9iety of
Chinas gro#ing clo t
in the region and how it can
pset -alances of po#er%
,here can onl" -e one hegemon- economic infl ence shifts the -alance of po#er 5enende+ 1A
NFernando $enande;, an economist and principal of Cordo)a 8roup &nternational BBC, ?he Counter)alance in America1s :ac*yard, H/.3/-4, http://www.chinausfocus.com/forei n0policy/the0counter)alance0in0americas0 )ac*yard0./P Since the 5onroe Doctrine, United States po#er has -een an existential fact-oflife in the Americas. $e9ico1s former dictator 6orfirio Mba; e"en Luipped: 6oor $e9ico, so far from 8od2 so close to the Gnited States. Accordin ly, anti0Americanism and a desire to -rea! #ith the tutela e of American mandarins have long dominated political narratives in the Americas . For many in
the Americas, China1s rise portends a chan e in the status Luo. $aintained in power )y Cene;uela1s "ast oil wealth, Cene;uelan 6resident Fu o ChU"e; )enefitted reatly from the rowin worldwide and Chinese demand for petroleum. &n a loan0for0oil scheme uaranteein China a steady flow of oil for ten years, CM: placed a third of its o"erseas loans O an astoundin ,/> )illion O in Cene;uela. ?he scheme commits Cene;uela to supplyin /-=,>>> )arrels of oil a day to China (or a)out ,-H.4 )illion a year in re"enue at ,->> a )arrel.# CM:1s loans amount to an estimated ,-,/>> for e"ery Cene;uelan. 8i"en the insta)ility of the Cene;uelan re ime, the loan is considered )y many e9perts as hi h ris*. A similar ,-> )illion loan to :ra;il1s state0owned oil company, 6etro)ras, is de"elopin offshore oil deposits in e9chan e for oil shipments of -H>,>>>0.>>,>>> )arrels per day. $ost recently, :ra;il and China si ned an a reed to conduct ,4> )illion in trade in local currency. ?he deal drops the G.S. dollar as a medium of e9chan e allowin :ra;il to *eep its reser"es of reen)ac*s for other purposes. Some analysts see this as a first step to a future renmin)i tradin )loc. ?he risin prices, loans and other )enefits of Chinese wealth ha"e also )ri htened prospects for the emer ence of trade and other pacts characteri;ed )y the lac* of a G.S. presence. $ercosur (or the Southern Common $ar*et#, CA' (the Andean Community of 'ations#, the ChU"e;0created radical AB:A (:oli"arian Alliance of the Americas#, and C%BAC (the Community of Batin American and Cari))ean 'ations#, a sort of alternati"e to the Jr ani;ation of American States (JAS#, this year presided o"er )y Cu)a, are all alternati"e "enues a)sent the Gnited States and Canada. From the perspecti"e of Batin America1s forei n policy ma*ers, China is undenia)ly a welcome economic, and potentially political, counter)alance to the G.S., especially i"en the o)@ecti"es of some Batin American countries. <ritin in the 8uardian on Jcto)er ., .>-., @ournalist +acl Ti)ec*i cites one of :ra;il1s top diplomats, Samuel 6inheiro 8uimares, e9plainin : K :ra;il1s strate y sou ht to pre"ent the Qremo"al1 of ChU"e; throu h a coup, to )loc* the reincorporation of Cene;uela into the 'orth American economy, to e9tend $ercosur with the inclusion of :oli"ia and %cuador and to hinder the G.S. pro@ect to consolidate the 6acific Alliance, which includes Chile, Colom)ia, $e9ico and 6eru.
Despite its preocc pation #ith the 5iddle East and its recent economic tro -les2 the U%S% remains a predominant actor in the region , and only the presence of a country capa)le of pro@ectin superior economic and political po#er co ld significantl" shift the -alance of forces a#a" from the c rrent hegemon. $oreo"er, unli*e the former So"iet Gnion O once descri)ed as a third world country with nuclear weapons O China has the economic reso rces to create an alternative loc s of financing2 trade and development%
Chinese infl ence depends on U%S% desertion- plan reverses that Johnson 8F
NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies, a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies, at ?he Ferita e Foundation.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America, ->/.//>H,
http://www.herita e.or /research/reports/.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP ChinaMs main rival for lo)al preeminence is the United States. China sees the United States as preventing ,ai#anMs re nification with the mainland and th#arting .ei/ingMs rise as a po#er. 4revio sl", China #as isolated, - t no# pla"s !e" roles in Asian geopolitics and aspires to do so else#here. :esides status as a nuclear nation, it is a mem)er of
the G.'. Security Council, the <orld ?rade Jr ani;ation, the 8roup of SS de"elopin nations, and the Asia 6acific %conomic Cooperation roup. &t also holds o)ser"er status in the Jr ani;ation of American States. <hile
China has )ecome the second0lar est G.S. trade partner after Canada, it challenges U%S% infl ence #herever it can% &n fact, it will soon ha"e more attac* su)marines than the Gnited
States, with the addition of four +ussian (ilo0class su)s and new diesel0electric "essels eLuipped with technolo y that will allow them to run Luieter than nuclear su)marines.N-P Accordin to former G.S. Am)assador to :ei@in 7ames Billy, YN?Phe facts are that Nthe ChineseP run massi"e intelli ence operations a ainst us, they ma*e open statements a ainst us, their hi h0le"el documents show that they are not friendly to us.Y Chinese military white papers
2 the Chinese are ta*in ad"anta e of failures of half-hearted mar!et reforms and &ashingtonMs n#illingness to p rs e neigh-orhood relations #ith m ch enth siasm% 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity professor Cynthia A. <atson notes, YN?Phe -==>s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free mar!ets led to rampant corr ption and nf lfilled expectations in Latin America #hile &ashington -ecame the #orldMs s perpo#er rather than a partner for the region%OL4P
promote power pro@ection and descri)e G.S. policies as Yhe emonism and power politics.YN.P &n the <estern Femisphere
Soft po#er is finite and demands competition -et#een the US and China Ne# Realand 'erald $81A (Settin rules for a new ame, 7une -.#
?hat ne"er happened. :ut as the GS )eats a retreat from Af hanistan, conser"ati"es rail that China will e9ploit mineral wealth worth GS,- trillion from the war0ra"a ed nation, and su est that .ei/ing has o tfoxed &ashington in a contest that echoes the legendar" >reat >ame2 #hen London and 5osco# -attled for dominance in Central Asia%5 &n this scenario, the US and China are engaged in a glo-al game2 evident in the $iddle %ast2 Latin America2 Africa, the Asia0 6acific, e"en outer space, a "ital frontier in the era of cy)er warfare. 5 ,he contest involves Osoft po#erO as China see!s ra# materials to f el economic expansion2 gro#ing infl ence on #orld c rrenc" mar!ets2 and more dan erous )rin*smanship, e"ident in cy)er attac*s on the <est and in sa)re0rattlin a ainst an9ious nei h)ours, includin 7apan and the 6hilippines, allied to the GS. 5 O,here is a high level of distr st existing2 and e"en gro#ing2 -et#een the t#o co ntries,Y says +ichard Solomon, a senior fellow at the +and Corporation. 5 ?he cy)er attac*s and )rin*smanship in the China Sea raise concerns, he says, Ya)out a drift towards confrontationY.
,he US and China are loc!ed in an ideological stalemate - US inc rsion disr pts the -alance of soft po#er and incites militant Chinese opposition D"non $81A ('icholas, 6hM candidate at $acLuarie Gni"ersity and coordinator
of the Bine .- pro@ect, Soft 6ower: A G.S.0China :attle roundR 7une -= th, http://thediplomat.com/china0power/soft0power0a0u0s0china0)attle round/.# Strip a#a" the ostensi-l" -enign s rface of p -lic diplomac" , cultural e9chan es and lan ua e instruction, and it -ecomes clear that the U%S% and China are engaged in a soft po#er conflagration a protracted c lt ral cold #ar. Jn one side )ristles incum)ent <estern "alues he emon, the G.S. Jn the other is China, one of the non0<estern ci"ili;ations that Samuel Funtin ton noted )ac* in -==4 increasingl" have the desire2 the #ill and the reso rces to shape the #orld in non-&estern #a"s.5 :ut to shape the world in non0<estern ways means engaging in a soft po#er -attlespace against an inc m-ent #ho alread" holds the high gro nd. Biu comments that in regions deepl" infl enced -" &estern c lt res, political
systems and "alues, the latecomer China is considered a 0dissident force .Y Gnder such circumstances, it is rather difficult for China to attract <estern countries with its own political and cultural charisma, let alone to
Chinas diffic lt" in pro/ecting soft po#er across the #orld is in part d e to the #a" the U%S% leverages its o#n soft po#er. <u 7ianmin, the former president of China1s Forei n Affairs Gni"ersity, puts the point well when e9plainin that
replace their positions.5 Accordin to this and similar "iewpoints, G.S. soft power is dri"en )y the imperati"e of maintainin GS he emony in chan in the world, of lettin the world listen to the Gnited States.5 ?hus, the state of lo)al post0colonial, post0communist ideational he emony is such that
large s#athes of the earths pop lation see the #orld thro gh lenses s pplied -" the &est. ?hrou h these lenses, perceptions of China are dominated )y such concepts as the China threat theory, which portrays
China as a male"olent superpower upstart.5 :ut it1s actually inside China1s )orders where the soft power stru and the G.S. is most prominent.5 le )etween China
<fficial prono ncements from Chinese leaders have long pla"ed p the notion that &estern c lt re is an aggressive threat to Chinas o#n c lt ral sovereignt". &t has thus ta*en myriad internal measures to ensure the country1s post0 $ao reforms remain an e9ercise in moderni;ation without westerni;ation. Since the 1HH8s, for e9ample, ideological doctrine has -een increasingl" inf sed #ith a ne# c lt ral nationalism2 and the 4art"s previo sl" archaic propaganda s"stem has -een massivel" overha led and #or!ing harder than ever.5 %specially after the J ne Kth crac!do#n and the collapse of the Soviet Union2 Chinas leaders nder Jiang Remin -egan addressing the c lt ral -attlespace #ith rene#ed vigor% 3esol tions la nched in 1HHE called for the 4art" to 0carr" for#ard the cream of o r traditional c lt re2 prevent and eliminate the spread of c lt ral gar-age2 LandN resist the conspirac" -" hostile forces to 9&esterni+e and 9split o r co ntr"V%1 Fu Jintao trumpeted the same theme in early .>-. when he #arned that international hostile forces are intensif"ing the strategic plot of &esternising and dividing China V ;deological and c lt ral fields are the focal areas of their long-term infiltration%1 ) ,he rhetoric of c lt re #ar contin es to emanate from the CC4. &n a pri"ate speech deli"ered to Communist 6arty mem)ers last Mecem)erIwhich was first reported )y Seein +ed in ChinaI Wi 7 inping arg ed that the Soviet Union had collapsed -eca se none of its mem-ers had -een 0man eno gh to stand p and resist1 the onsla ght of &estern ideals . ?hen, in recent days, So th China 5orning 4ost reported on an article in the fla ship CC6 pu)lication See*in ?ruth, which #arned that 0adopting &estern ideas #o ld p sh the nation into a dead end and dash hopes for realising the 9Chinese dream%1Y ,he co ntr"s niversit" lect rers have also -een ordered to avoid disc ssing certain topics reflecting &estern val es2 s ch as press freedom and civil rights . <hile such machinations may )e "iewed as post0leadership chan e posturin , the" ne"ertheless reflect .ei/ings long-held sensitivit" to the inc rsions of the 0aggressive1 soft po#er of the &est .
Lin! A$( Not Rero S m <il Spec

Cooperation is impossi-le nat ral reso rces are finite . rton $88F (Man, Former +epresentati"e from &ndiana's Hth Mistrict, F%A+&'8
JF ?F% <%S?%+' F%$&S6F%+% SG:CJ$$&??%% JF ?F% FJGS% &'?%+'A?&J'AB +%BA?&J'S CJ$$&??%%, Federal 'ews Ser"ice.# Latin America is an attractive destination for China as it is an area of the world that is rich in mineral reso rces2 commodities and partic larl" energ" so rces . As the #orldMs second-largest cons mer of oil2 China is a leading competitor of the United States in the search for oil2 gas and minerals in Central and South %ast Asia, the $iddle %ast, Africa and now in Latin America% China alone acco nts for K8 percent of the glo-al gro#th in oil demand in the last fo r "ears , accordin to the Gnited States %ner y Mepartment, and its national cons mption is pro/ected to rise to 1$%P million -arrels a da" from H.HD million )arrels now, o"er the ne9t .> years. $ost of all, that oil #ill need to -e imported. ?he Gnited States, )y comparison, now uses .>./ million )arrels a day, with nearly -. million )arrels of it imported.5 As we all *now, oil is a finite reso rce and the competition to exploit it a +ero-s m game% ,he more glo-al oil the Chinese go--le p2 the less oil availa-le to flo# into American po#er plants2 commercial tr c!s and home heating s"stems% &eMve alread" seen the effect at the gas p mp as gas prices move ever higher, sLuee;in economic rowth%) &ith the largest oil reserves o tside the 5iddle East and a president who says that his country needs to di"ersify its ener y )usiness )eyond the Gnited States, *ene+ ela has emerged as an o-vio s contender for .ei/ingMs attention. China has also signed accords #ith 4er and is no# exploring pro/ects in .olivia and Colom-ia% Furthermore, China is also interested in developing the Canadian tar sands, #here estimates of recovera-le heav" oil range from 1@F -illion to 1%E trillion -arrels .5
Competition over nat ral reso rces means infl ence is +eros m ? rlant+ic! $88@ (7oshua, Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Forei n
+elations, China <al*s Softly :ut Carries a :i Chec*)oo*, Au ust D, G.S. 'ews V <orld +eport.# 5"anmar provides an earl" glimpse of #hat China is -ecoming% After "ears foc sing on its o#n econom"2 China has -eg n to go glo-al in infl ence as #ell as economics% &ith gro#ing interests aro nd the glo-e--from mines in 4er to peace!eepers across Africa to pipelines into Central Asia00China is finding it can no longer live -" its doctrine of Ononintervention%O ;n Africa, Latin America, Asia, and the $iddle %ast, China is -eginning to se its infl ence in #a"s that ma" prove pro-lematic for the United States .5 6artner or ri"alR For now, the :ush administration is applaudin when China plays a complementary role. For instance, <ashin ton has encoura ed :ei@in to do the diplomatic hea"y liftin for ne otiations to rid 'orth (orea of its nuclear weapons pro ram. :ut at some point, the United States ma" not loo! so approvingl" on the rise of another glo-al pla"er2 a rival for infl ence2 for alliances2 and for access to nat ral reso rces% China desperatel" needs ne# so rces of energ" to s stain its expanding econom"2 and -" $8A8 it pro-a-l" #ill -e importing some P8 percent of its oil% ,his potentiall" p ts China into
competition #ith other ma/or oil-importing nations2 incl ding the United States%
<il tradeoffs are +ero s m Chapman $88F (Man, contri)utor to Co9 'ews Ser"ice, Batin America wary of
China e9pansion, 7uly -D.# Closer to home, China r ns t#o oil fields in *ene+ ela and plans to develop a do+en more% ;t - "s 1$82888 -arrels of oil a month from 6resident Fu o Cha"e;'s state0run oil company and e"en e9tended a ,S>> million line of credit to help Cha"e; )uild homes for the country's poor. ,rade -et#een the t#o co ntries is expected to do -le to QA -illion this year.5 YNo# #e are free2 and place this oil at the disposal of the great Chinese fatherland2O Chave+ a Latin American nemesis of . sh said upon completion of an oil deal with :ei@in last Mecem)er.5 ,he United States2 #hich imports half its oil from *ene+ ela2 5exico and other Latin American co ntries2 isnMt sed to nat ral reso rce competition in its -ac! "ard% No# .ei/ing2 nder the corporate g ise of the China National <ffshore <il Corp%2 offers Q1P%F -illion for Unocal. Bate last month, the U%S% 'o se of 3epresentatives over#helmingl" passed a resol tion declaring that the Chinese company's p rchase of Unocal #o ld Othreaten to impair the national sec rit" of the United States%O
Lin! A$( <nl" <il is Rero S m

Even if theres no competition over oil2 Latin America #ill -ecome a -attlefield for competing economic models . rton $88F (Man, Former +epresentati"e from &ndiana's Hth Mistrict, F%A+&'8
JF ?F% <%S?%+' F%$&S6F%+% SG:CJ$$&??%% JF ?F% FJGS% &'?%+'A?&J'AB +%BA?&J'S CJ$$&??%%, Federal 'ews Ser"ice.# <il is -" no means the onl" ind str" in Latin America receiving a h ge infl x of Chinese mone". &n 'o"em)er .>>/, China's 6resident, ' 2 visited .ra+il2 Argentina2 Chile and C -a% ." the end of his trip, some K88 agreements and - siness deals had -een signed. &n Ar entina, Chinese state-o#ned enterprises are d e to invest nearl" Q$8 -illion in the comin decade in mines, railroads, and other infrastructure pro@ects. Bast year alone, Chinese state0owned enterprises pumped ,-.>/ )illion into the re ion, acco nting for AE%F percent of Latin AmericaMs foreign direct investment .5 Eet e"en this impressi"e fi ure pales in comparison with what 6resident Fu and his dele ation pled ed in future support. ." the "ear $81F2 the Chinese intend for their investments in the re ion to top Q188 -illion. :ut what China i"es with one hand, it e9pects to recei"e with the other. &n other words, there is a cost to pa" for Chinese assistance2 and that cost is diplomatic and economic. After 6resident Fu's "isit, Ar entina,
:ra;il and Chile reco ni;ed China as a, Luote, Ymar*et economy,Y unLuote, a status that precludes anti0 dumpin tariffs. Eet
China contin es to pirate intellect al propert"2 prod ce co nterfeit goods2 and d mp these and other prod cts into mar!ets in this hemisphere2 and engage in c rrenc" manip lation.5 ?he "irtual flood of Chinese e9ports is eatin away at local industries in
Central and South America, and here in the Gnited States. ?hese unfair Chinese trade policies and practices ha"e e9acer)ated trade deficits across the re ion. Accordin to the G.S. Census' Federal ?rade :ureau, in .>>/ the Gnited States' trade deficit with China reached nearly ,-D. )illion. ?hat is the lar est trade deficit we ha"e with any nation on earth and one0si9th of our total trade deficit. Canada and $e9ico ha"e also )een su)@ected to China's unfair trade policies and practices. Canada's trade deficit with China rew from ,-.. )illion in -==H to ,-4.3 )illion in .>>4, and $e9ico's trade deficit with China rew HS.S percent in one year, from Jcto)er
even o r econom" and ind stries are -eing staggered -" the massive trade im-alance #ith China% ;t is not hard to imagine the impact this n-level pla"ing field is having on the economies of the smaller co ntries in Latin America% & ha"e lon ur ed the administration to ta*e a more hard0line approach to China's unfair tradin practices, and & am
.>>4 to Jcto)er .>>/.5 ?he Gnited States has the most dynamic and powerful economy in the world and yet
pleased that some success has )een achie"ed on the Luestion of China's artificially de"alued currency, the yuan. <hile the Chinese ha"e ac*nowled ed in recent months that they will need to e"entually let the Euan float openly on the world currency mar*ets, they ha"e not set a timeta)le for doin so. Clearly, we ha"e more wor* to do and & ur e 6resident :ush and the administration to continue to *eep the issue of Chinese trade practices on the &nternational a enda. & would also caution our friends throu hout Batin America a)out rantin China full mar*et economy status. & thin* it is clear that China's state su)sidies, its currency pe , and poor la)or ri hts conditions disLualify China from truly deser"in , Luote, Ymar*et economy status.Y ConseLuently, rantin China full
ChinaMs ret rn on its investments in Latin America goes -e"ond sec ring ChinaMs dominant trade position% China is lending s pport to the nations of Latin America and expects in !ind s pport from them in m ltilateral #orld for ms% China #ants Latin AmericaMs votes at the United Nations and other for ms to co nter-alance U%S% infl ence2 particularly on the sensiti"e su)@ect of ?aiwan
mar*et economy status would )e, in my "iew, a ra"e error in @ud ment.
Lin! A$( ;ts ,oo Late

Not too late- the relationship is still fragile 6erchen 1$
N$att, +%S&M%'? SCFJBA+ CA+'%8&%0?S&'8FGA C%'?%+ FJ+ 8BJ:AB 6JB&CE, China1s Batin American &nterests, //D/-., http://carne ieendowment.or /.>-./>//>D/china0s0latin0american0interests/aSa"P ,he Chinese government goes to great lengths to emphasi+e that its relations #ith the de"elopin world, includin with Latin America2 represent a different approach than that of the United States or %urope. ?o hi hli ht this difference, China has lon promoted its forei n policy principles of respect for so"erei nty and commitment to noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries. Eet2 there is2 in fact, a heated -attle to portra" the relationship in a positive or negative light and much wealth and presti e are on the line. :ut the irony is that lost in all of this de)ate is that Chinas economic ties to Latin America have important similarities to the historical experience of other rapidl" ind striali+ing co ntries% ?hat is, China is under oin an intense period of industriali;ation and ur)ani;ation and therefore has a "oracious appetite for raw materials. <hether or not this industriali;ation is healthy, sustaina)le, or e"en the product of Chinese o"ernment policies is de)ata)le. <hat is clear is that for all of Chinas efforts to emphasi+e its different approach to dealing #ith developing co ntries2 the str ct re of its trade relationship #ith Latin America loo!s ver" similar to historical relationships -et#een the ind striali+ing co ntries of the 0North1 and the commodit"-rich developing co ntries of the 0So th% And difficult Luestions that Chinese minin or other firms in Batin America face a)out la)or or the en"ironment are "ery similar to those confronted )y American or %uropean firms in the past. ,he real challenges for government and - siness officials in China and Latin America attemptin to create a s staina-le and sta-le long-term economic and political relationship are( the relationship is still ver" ne#2 is relativel" narro# (in its commodity )asis#, and is potentiall" more fragile than often nderstood (commodity )ooms can )e followed )y )usts, or at least prices re"ertin to their historical downward trend#. ?hat is, those officials in China and Latin America might -e -est served -" recogni+ing that China, at least in terms of its trade and investment relationship #ith commodit"rich co ntries in Latin America and else#here2 is more 0normal1 than man" recogni+e or #o ld li!e to admit.
Lin! ,rade
;ncreasing economic engagement thro gh trade sh ts o t Chinese interests Johnson 8F
NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies, a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies, at ?he Ferita e Foundation.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America, ->/.//>H, http://www.herita e.or /research/reports/.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP ,he United States and China have competing interests in Latin America% &ashington #o ld li!e to see its hemispheric neigh-ors develop into sta-le, democratic2 prospero s trade partners that em)race the rule of law. .ei/ing sees the region as a so rce of ra# materials2 a mar!et for man fact red goods2 and a platform for po#er pro/ection% U%S% interests pro)a)ly coincide more #ith Latin American needs. &n contrast, China represents an opport nit" to temper American dominance with )roader alliances. +e retta)ly, Chinese aid and commodity imports may )uy time for
state industries, powerful presidents, and influential oli archs. $ost of all, such commerce could delay needed reforms and indus0
AmericaMs strength is competition, and it sho ld infl ence the r les of the game in that direction . As a good neigh-or and in its own and Batin America's interests, the United States sho ld( Accelerate free trade a reements. 6ree trade agreements have -een the hallmar! of U%S% policies toward the re ion since the -==>s. As an inducement, America should drop its a ricul0 tural and steel su)sidies that dissuade potential partners and cost ta9payers money. ;mproved U%S% trade relations with Andean nei h)ors (and e"entually Southern Cone countries# #ill open mar!et access for -oth U%S% and Latin American enterprises and pro"ide an outlet for industrial rowth. Adopt more comprehensi"e relationships. Single-iss e diplomac" that emphasi+es U%S% interests , such as counternarcotics, leaves vac ms in other areas s ch as sec rit" assistance and trade capacity de"elopment that other powers can fill. 6lan Colom-ia is #or!ing -eca se the United States is helping Colom-ia to com)at terrorism, e9pand pu)lic safety ;ones, stren then institutions, reacti"ate the economy, and promote rural peace.N--P Cut red tape on assistance. ?his policy should )e followed to
triali;ation that mi ht lift Batin America's near ma@ority underclass out of po"erty. the reatest e9tent possi)le. 6erformance reLuirements are )lunt instruments that do not co"er e"ery situation. Constraints such as annual certifications on counternarcotics cooperation and Article =3 letters that withhold security assistance occasionally )ac*fire )y withdrawin support for allies in areas of mutual interest. &f Con ress considers such restrictions a)solutely necessary, it should tai0 lor them to suspend only economic aid that is not crucial to immediate G.S. interests. 6ress harder for reforms and use pu)lic diplomacy. Jnce Batin America had elected leaders and fled lin mar*ets in the -==>s, G.S. support for democracy and economic reforms declined. Althou h each country is responsi)le for sol"in its own pro)lems, e9ternal pressure can encoura e pro ress%
U%S% p -lic diplomac", which is mostly reacti"e toward Batin America, sho ld -e strengthened and more s pportive of U%S% development goals%
Lin! 5exico
U%S% engagement !e" to shift China from 5exico %lisa)eth 5al!in is a contri)utin writer for ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes )ased in $e9ico City, (arla Ta)ludo"s*y contri)uted reportin from $e9ico City, D0H0 $81A
NChinese 6resident $a*es :rid e0:uildin ?rip to $e9ico, ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes on the <e), Be9isP 4resident Ii 7inpin of China arrived in 5exico City on ?uesday for a three-da" visit intended to smooth over relations that ha"e lon )een pric*ly. China has moved forcef ll" to sec re oil and other commodities in So th America over the past decade. $e9ico 00 Batin America's second0lar est economy 00 has played a different role thou h, not supplyin China
)ut competin with it to e9port manufactured oods li*e electronics and clothin to the Gnited States. 6resident Wi's "isit to $e9ico, comin only two months after 6resident %nriLue 6eda 'ieto of $e9ico tra"eled to China, is an effort to recast the relationship under two new leaders. ,he trip nderscores ChinaMs gro#ing ties in the hemisphere . :efore arri"in in $e9ico, 6resident Wi "isited Central America and the Cari))ean, further securin his nation's foothold there. &n ?rinidad and ?o)a o, he met with -> Cari))ean leaders and promised ,4 )illion in loans for pro@ects in the re ion, accordin to :loom)er 'ews. Amon the loans was one for ,.H> million to )uild a children's hospital in ?rinidad, the Cari))ean's lar est ener y supplier.
China has given -illions in loans and aid
to Cari))ean nations to )uild stadiums, roads, ports and tourist resorts, and $r. Wi's "isit came days after Cice 6resident 7oseph +. :iden 7r. met with -H re ional leaders in ?rinidad, drawin a sharp contrast a)out what the two countries had to offer the area's tiny economies. $r. :iden announced no new initiati"es, thou h he spo*e a)out pro"idin help for clean ener y research and education and promised to dismantle remainin trade and in"estment )arriers. Jn Sunday, $r. Wi tra"eled to Costa +ica 00 which has no diplomatic ties with ?aiwan 00 and promised almost
sent a clear message to other Central American co ntries that -" #ithdra#ing their recognition of ,ai#an MMthe" co ld get goodies too2MM (e"in 6. 8alla her, a professor at :oston Gni"ersity, wrote in an e0mail. Latin American leaders have long complained that &ashington pa"s too little attention to the rest of the hemisphereMs concerns2 and China has -eg n to ta!e advantage of that perception% As Latin America and the Cari))ean -ecome less dependent on the United States, MMthe" have another economic all"2 and that economic ally is a s perpo#er,'' said S. Bynne <al*er, the director of the China0Americas pro ram at the &nstitute of the
,4>> million in loans to finish )uildin a hi hway. ?he trip Americas in California. $att Ferchen, a scholar at the Carne ie0?sin hua Center for 8lo)al 6olicy in :ei@in , su Wi's itinerary may also )e intended as a messa e to the Gnited States.
MMChina #ants to remind the U%S% that / st as the U%S% has infl ence in regions close to China2 China too has rising infl ence in the Americas,'' he wrote in an e0mail. Analysts will )e watchin the trip closely for si ns that 5exico and China are ta!ing steps to#ard changing their frost" relationship% $e9ico's o"ernment would li*e to narrow its lar e trade ap with China. Bast year, $e9ico imported ,HS )illion in oods from China and sent )ac* only ,H.S )illion in products, accordin to $e9ico's $inistry of %conomy. ,he t#o co ntries anno nced a series of agreements late , esda" covering energ"2 trade and ed cation. ''<e a ree on the importance of )alancin our trade and in"estment
ested that 6resident
relationship,'' $r. 6eda 'ieto said, notin promises from China to start )y acceptin more teLuila and por* imports. China could also send a stron messa e )y announcin in"estments in $e9ican manufacturin , e9perts said, perhaps in the automo)ile industry. ''At least ha"in the possi)ility of reater Chinese in"estment on the ta)le mi ht allow China and $e9ico to mo"e )eyond their up0till0
ChinaMs interest in nat ral reso rces leaves little do -t that it is loo!ing at f t re oil deals in 5exico .
now Luite dysfunctional and competiti"e relationship,'' $r. Ferchen wrote. Still, &n a sym)olic mo"e, $e9ico's state0owned oil monopoly, 6eme9, si ned an a reement durin $r. 6eda 'ieto's "isit to China in April to ship 4>,>>> )arrels a day to Sinopec, a state0owned company there. $e9ico's Con ress is e9pected to )e in de)atin measures to open the country's closed oil industry to outside in"estment later in the year, althou h it is unclear how far that openin will o.
ChinaMs rising infl ence in Latin America2 the United States has an opport nit" to improve relations #ith the region, he added. ''As e9cited as Batin American o"ernments are a)out the
Still, ''in $e9ico the oal is to et to the head of the line in ener y reform,'' $r. 8alla her wrote. Mespite on the en"ironment Chinese0led rowth has e9acted,'' he said.
new trade and finance from China, they are also ettin concerned a)out an o"erreliance on commodities and a)out the hea"y toll
,he pro-lem is that the United States is not ma!ing an attractive eno gh co nteroffer2 he said: MM&e sed to -e
a-le to dangle access to the -iggest econom" in the #orld2 - t that is no longer eno gh.''
Economic integration #ith 5exico !e" to chec! Chinese infl ence 5ares and Canovas 18
NMa"id +. $ares V 8usta"o Ce a CUno"as, the Center for G.S.0$e9ican Studies (San Mie o#, the $e9ico &nstitute of the <oodrow <ilson Center (<ashin ton MC#, %l Cole io de la Frontera 'orte (?i@uana#, and %l Cole io de $a9ico ($e9ico City#.?he G.S.0$e9ico +elationship: ?owards a 'ew %raR, .>->, http://usme9.ucsd.edu/assets/>.//--D4H.pdfP
?his chapter )e ins )y )riefly characteri;in the most recent period of GS0$e9ico relations, the 'AF?A era since -==/. <e trace the ori ins, purposes, and the impact of 'AF?A in the two economies and societies. A second section lays out the parameters of a new era in the )ilateral relationship, payin particular attention to the challen es to )oth countries raised )y the processes of
lo)ali;ation and democrati;ation. >lo-ali+ations impact on the relationship is -est capt red in the rise of China and conse: ent displacement of 5exico in trade relations #ith the US. Memocrati;ation complicates policy responses )ut impro"es the li*elihood that policy will ha"e some consistency o"er time. ,he inade: ate manner in #hich the two co ntries have responded up to now to these challen es is highlighted. A third section discusses the essence of an" appropriate response to these challen es: economic integration. ,he fail re of integration at a regional level is disc ssed , )ut we note that $e9ico1s lon )order with the GS means that the options open to :ra;il, Ar entina and Chile in di"ersifyin their economic relations simply are not "ia)le for $e9ico. A fourth section e"aluates the current relationship and offers su estions to impro"e the two countries1 a)ilities to respond
&hether 5exico or the US li!e it or not2 the" are destined to #al! together if they want to )e successful in this lo)ali;ed economy. ?he conclusion speculates on whether the co ntries #ill move to#ards a more colla-orative or distant relationship, thus helpin to set the conte9t for the in0depth discussions in su)seLuent chapters
effecti"ely to today1s challen es.
5exico is a !e" partner for China in Latin America .randt 1$

N7on :randt Mere* Fottle 'icole Adams 'a" Au@la Christina Minh (irsten (aufman Me"in (leinfield0Fayes <anlin +en Andrew ?uc* A$%+&CA' G'&C%+S&?E SCFJJB JF &'?%+'A?&J'AB S%+C&C%, Chinese %n a ement in Batin America and the Cari))ean: &mplications for GS Forei n 6olicy, Mecem)er .>-., http://www.american.edu/sis/usfp/upload/Chinese0%n a ement0in0BAC0AG!GS0 Con ress0F&'AB.pdfP ,he 43Cs military interests in LAC are closely aligned #ith its commercial o-/ectives. :ilateral security ties )uild political oodwill with re ional players, thus reducin the li*elihood of actions a ainst Chinese e9ports and in"estments.HS Chinas economic priorities are seen in its 0official s"stem of catalog ing states as cooperative2 friendlycooperati"e or strate ic partnersIwith the implication that this has for the allocation of economic resources.H3 Chinas four strategic partners in Batin America 0 Ar entina, 5exico, :ra;il and Cene;uela O serve as important trading partners and commodit" s ppliers% Chinas strategic post re in the &estern 'emisphere is consistent #ith its pu)lically stated national sec rit" priorities. ?he 6+C1s .>-> national
defense white paper emphasi;es a defensi"e Chinese military strate y, focusin on stren thenin international military relations and counterin forei n interference in domestic affairs. ?he paper hi hli hts Chinese concerns a)out international military competition in the areas of missile defense, cy)erspace, outer space, and the polar re ions, while simultaneously insistin the 6+C
Chinas ties #ith LAC reflect a gro#ing desire to protect economic and sec rit" interests, the 43C is promoting
does not see* confrontation or lo)al he emony. <hile
cooperation #hich reflects 0m t al tr st and -enefit21 not offensi"e measures that would directly threaten the Gnited States. A num)er of hi h0le"el defense "isits ha"e occurred )etween China and Latin American nations.H= <hile these interactions ha"e not resulted in round)rea*in )ilateral strate ic initiati"es, they serve as confidence - ilding meas res and pro"ide openin s for arms transactions.D>D
Lin! 5exico A$( Competes #ith China

5exico loves China no# goods mar!et Altha s 1A
NMudley, 8lo)al 6ost, <hat does Wi see in $e9icoR, D/H/-4, http://www. lo)alpost.com/dispatch/news/re ions/americas/me9ico/-4>D>//me9ica n0china0trade09i0latin0america0"isite-P after meeting #ith 6eda Nieto in China, Ii might -e loo!ing for more of 5exicoMs -.H million )arrels of daily oil exports, most of which now oes to the GS refineries, analysts say. Li!e other Latin American co ntries2 5exico #ants more access to Chinese mar!ets for its man fact red goods% YChina has -ecome a so rce of economic gro#th and a factor of international sta-ilit"2O 6eda 'ieto said in a welcomin ceremony for Wi this afternoon. Y$e9ico wants to ti hten its relationship.Y China0$e9ico trade roc*eted from a)out ,4
Jn his "isit now, comin @ust se"en wee*s )illion in .>>-, when :ei@in si ned on to the <orld ?rade Jr ani;ation, to nearly ,D4 )illion last year. :ut so far China has claimed the ti er's share of that e9pandin pie. $e9ican consumers o))led up ,HS )illion worth of Chinese electronics, toys and assorted ee aws last year, while )usinesses here sold )arely a ->th that sum in minerals and farm produce, tacos and teLuila to China.
Lin! 5exico ?$ LA 3egion

5exico is the !e" to Latin America 6arns#orth and &er+ 1$
N%ric Farnsworth is "ice president of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society, headin their <ashin ton, M.C., office since .>>4. Fis areas of e9pertise include the role of Asia in the Americas, trade, ener y, G.S. policy in the re ion, and national security affairs. $ichael <er; is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American 6ro ress, where his wor* as a mem)er of the 'ational Security team focuses on the ne9us of climate chan e, mi ration, and security, as well as on emer in democratic powers in ?ur*ey, $e9ico, :ra;il, and &ndia. ?he Gnited States and $e9ico: ?he 6ath Forward, --/4>/-., http://www.americanpro ress.or /issues/security/news/.>-./--/4>//D/4>/the0 united0states0and0me9ico0the0path0forward/P
,he co ntr" has solid standing% Economic gro#th is strong and pro/ections sho# contin ed expansion, surpassin e"en Batin American darlin :ra;il. ,he middle class is gro#ing, with reater access to oods and ser"ices and the a)ility to purchase them. $anufacturin is mo"in )ac* to $e9ico from China, #ith 5exico -ecoming a platform -oth for prod ction in North America and also in Latin America. ,he co ntr" has also -ecome a leading voice in glo-al trade2 as #ell as economic and environmental initiatives . 5exico is )ecomin economicall" what it has always )een eo raphically: the cr cial lin! -et#een North and So th America%
Lin! 5exico EE !$ >ain 6oothold

Economic engagement is critical to ens re the U%S% controls 5exico 5ontealegre 1A
NJscar, Miplomatic Courier, G.S.0$e9ico +elations: Bo"e ?hy 'ei h)or, -/.//-4, http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/re ions/latin0america/-44-P 5exico is an aftertho ghtIour attention and reso rces are diverted to the 5iddle East or to grand strategies )ased on Qpi"otin 1 our eopolitical and economical capacity towards Asia. <ith the G.S. economy performin at a snail0li*e pace, an emphasis on exports has re-emerged , )ut the )ul* of the e9portin narrati"e re"ol"es aro nd Asia. ?his is unfortunate, )ecause our nei h)or to the south has Luietly positioned itself to )e the ne9t @ewel in the emer in mar*ets portfolio . For e9ample, $ar*et <atch
&n matters of forei n policy, (a <all Street 7ournal su)sidiary# recently pu)lished a )ullish article on $e9ico with the followin headline: $e9ico: &n"estor1s 'ew China. ?he %conomist pu)lished an opinion piece titled ?he 8lo)al $e9ican: $e9ico is open for )usiness, hi hli htin $e9ican companies that are in"estin locally and in the G.S. and ar uin that
5exico is
fertile gro nd for more investment, especially in the manufacturin
sector. And accordin to ?he Financial ?imes, :+&C countries
the dr g trade #ill no longer anchor the relationship -et#een the U%S% and 5exicoW instead, economics, finance, trade, and commerce will dictate the terms )etween the nei h)orin countries. Fowe"er, in order to mo"e forward, undou)tedly the elephant in the room must )e addressed promptly. &mmi rationIalthou h
(:ra;il, +ussia, &ndia, and China# are no lon er the fla"or of the month2 $e9ico is now ta*in o"er that distinction. &n essence, immi ration and
the topic is polari;in , it is imperati"e that 6resident J)ama tac*les this issue steadfastly and in the most )i0partisan manner possi)le. &t can )e seen as one0sided that the onus is on the G.S., while $e9ico ets carte )lanche in its contradictory policy with their )order patrol methods towards Central American mi rants enterin throu h 8uatemala. ?rue, )ut when you are world1s super power, not all is fair in lo"e and war. Fortifyin )orders, )eefin up security, creatin walls that di"ide the two countries that mimic uncomforta)le parallels )etween &srael and 6alestine should not )e the main focus. <ith the world )ecomin more flat, the emphasis in tac*lin the immi ration Lua mire should )e trade and commerce. %n a ement, interaction, and the e9chan e of ideas should )e the picture we want to paint. <e should not foster the ar ument that an open )order policy and a lo)al )usiness paradi m will compromise American @o)s and )ite into our distincti"e American competiti"eness. ?he reason $e9icans cross the )order ille ally into the G.S. is )ecause of one desire: opportunity. &f $e9ico de"elops a lastin ro)ust economy, $e9icans will no lon er desire to come to the G.S. in such dro"es. Accordin to 'elson :alido, 6resident of the :order ?rade Alliance, this already occurrin : $e9ico1s economy has, for the most part, weathered the worst of the economic downturn, meanin that more youn $e9icans can reasona)ly see* and find wor* in their patria rather than headin north. A stron American economy is e9tremely fa"ora)le for $e9ico. ?urn the ta)les a )it, and ponder what it means for the G.S. when a $e9ican economy is ro)ust and sta)leImore e9port possi)ilities for the G.S.2 more in"estment from the G.S. to $e9ico, and "ice "ersa, creatin a win0win situation. Bess need for $e9icans to lea"e their homeland and loo* for @o)s in the G.S. Sounds familiarR ?he characteristics of many "i)rant emer in mar*ets such as China, &ndonesia, :ra;il, and &ndia, are occurrin ri ht
5exico in the next decade #ill s rpass .ra+il in -eing Latin Americas largest econom"%
ne9t door. <hy o %ast when we can "enture SouthR Jr perhaps, approach )oth simultaneously. Accordin to a 'omura %Luity +esearch report, <hen comparin $e9ico on a 8M6 per capita )asis, $e9ico happens to )e less de"eloped than Ar entina, Chile, and :ra;il. ?his mi ht sound ne ati"e, )ut in actuality it should )e music
more catching p for 5exico2 meaning more investment and - siness activit"% $oreo"er, $e9ico1s economy is hi hly interconnected with the G.S. economy. Currently, $e9ico sends almost 3> percent of its e9ports to the
to in"estors1 ears: G.S., and rou hly H> percent of its imports are from the G.S. $anufacturin costs in $e9ico are once a ain competiti"e compared to China. ?en years a o, China1s la)or costs were four times cheaper than $e9ico, )ut with la)or wa es in China inflatin , $e9ico now has a comparati"e ad"anta e )ecause its pro9imity to the G.S. Shippin car o across the 6acific can )e more e9pensi"e and arduous, "ersus truc*in car o from northern $e9ico and deli"erin to <isconsin in a matter of days. Fowe"er if the G.S. administration continues to close the )orders, the e9chan e of commerce )etween $e9ico and the G.S. will suffer due to set)ac*s of @ust ettin oods to cross the )order. Buc*ily, 'AF?A is already in place, )ut -oth parties (and Canada# can do more to cut red tape and streamline the mo"ement of trade and commerce. Currently, 5exico is entering a perfect demographic storm. &t has a youn and rowin population, which is e9pected to last for se"eral decades. $e9ico is no lon er only loo*in north for economic ad"ancement, as many of their multinational companies, such as :im)o and Ceme9, are currently doin )usiness in Batin America and Spain. $e9ico1s stoc* mar*et is currently in tal*s to inte rate their stoc* e9chan e with the $&BA roupIthe
,he U%S% m st act soon -efore it arrives at the part" too late. ;t is in the U%S%s interests to have 5exico thin! north#ard first2 and then the other regions second2 - t the opposite is developing%
esta)lished stoc* e9chan es )etween Colom)ia, 6eru, and Chile.
Lin! C -a
C -a engagement reverses Chinese dominance L !o 11 (7ames O Ser"ed in <ashin ton MC with the 'ational Council For So"iet
%ast %uropean +esearch, the Smithsonian &nstitute and two years as an analyst with the Canadian Mepartment of 'ational Mefence, China's $o"es on Cu)a 'eed to :e Stopped, D/.=, http://www.nolanchart.com/article3SS/0chinas0mo"es0on0cu)a0 need0to0)e0stopped.html#
?he +ed Mra on ta*es another wide step of not only fle9in its muscles in Asia, )ut now wishes to supplant +ussias and (former
C -a is ChinaMs -iggest trade partner in the Cari--ean region, while China is Cu)a's second0lar est trade partner after Cene;uela. J"er the past decade, -ilateral trade increased from ,//> million in .>>- to ,-.34 )illion in .>->. N-P &n .>>D China
GSS+s# forward )ase presence => miles from the Gnited States0 CG:A. and Cu)a discussed offshore oil deals and now China's 'ational 6etroleum Corporation is a ma@or player in Cu)an infrastructure impro"ements. Ni)idP &n .>>3, none other than China's 6resident himself,
' Jin,ao visited C -a with a sweet pac*a e of loans, rants and trade deals. &f Cu)a )ecomes a 'client' state of China , it #ill -e a so rce of leverage against America whene"er the G.S. 6ressures China on ?i)et and ?aiwan. Soon we will
witness the newly constructed )lue0water na"y of China cruisin Cu)a's coast in protection of their trade routes and supply of natural resources. &n .>>4 it was reported that Chinese personnel were operatin at least ?<J (.# intelli ence si nal sations in Cu)a since at least -=== f N.P ?his month, 7une .>--, the Cice 6resident of China made an important "isit, e9tendin more financial
,he -est #a" to co nter the Chinese in C -a is to reverse Americas H> year old, ineffective and o-solete polic" of isolationism and )oycott of Cu)a. ,he Chinese threat in C -a sho ld )e the catalyst for the GS to esta)lish open and normali+ed relations, with
aid, interest0free, as well as related health pro@ects to )e paid for )y China. A client state in the ma*in f N4P economic incenti"es to re0Americani;e Cu)a, return of American in"estments and security a reements. Chec*in the Chinese mo"e in Cu)a early on is "ital to pre"entin a strate ic Chinese foothold => miles from Florida. Allowin China to replace +ussia in Cu)a
China is dangling financial assistance and investments in order to esta-lish a -eachhead close to the shores of America% ?his is a counter0
would )e a strate ic disaster. response to Americas continued military presence in Asia, continued support of ?aiwan and recent increased American aid to the 6hilippines in its spat with China o"er so"erei nty of the Spratly &slands. ?he Cu)an people wish to return to the American fold and re0esta)lish the traditional relationship with the Cu)an anchor in Florida0 namely the almost =>>,>>> Cu)ans li"in in Florida alonef N/P
China is shoring p infl ence in C -a no# trade solves relations .oston >lo-e $DH (Cu)a1s reforms pa"e way for new GS policy, too, .>-4,
http://www.)oston lo)e.com/opinion/editorials/.>-4/>./>=/cu)a0reform0create0 opportunity0dra 0policy0into0century/9%+.'??W8s9dBe@>miFwF$/story.html# 3elations -et#een the United States and C -a have -een st c! since the United States imposed a f ll economic em-argo in -=D., and durin the election season neither 6resident J)ama nor $itt +omney si naled much desire to chan e the status Luo. Eet #hile Americans have -een loo!ing else#here2 significant change has come to C -a. ,he comm nist government of the rulin Castro )rothers, Fidel and +aul, is in the midst of a slo# experiment to promote economic entreprene rship. Bate last year, C -a instit ted reforms to its immi ration policies that allo# C -ans to travel a-road freel" and allow those who ha"e emi rated or fled to return home. ,hese changes2 and the -eginning of <-amas second term, create an n s al opport nit" to ac!no#ledge C -as gest res and respond in a s -stantive #a"% +ather than simply e9tend policies that, in fi"e decades, ha"e failed to dislod e the Castros, the <-ama administration has a chance to drag US polic" into the $1st cent r". ?he Cu)an0American population, which
has historically opposed any loosenin of GS policy, is no lon er monolithic. Supportin family, and the Cu)an economy now animates a youn er eneration of Florida "oters.
.eca se of this trend2 <-ama I who performed nearly as well with Cu)an0American "oters as +omney I has more
reater contact with friends,
mane vering room politicall". ?he first step would )e to end the silly claim, reinstated )y the
J)ama administration last summer, that Cu)a remains a state sponsor of terrorism. ?he administration ar ued that Cu)a har)ored mem)ers of the +e"olutionary Armed Forces of Colom)ia, or FA+C. &t has, )ut the FA+C and Colom)ia are now in ne otiations2 those peace tal*s are supported )y the J)ama <hite Fouse in order to end a )loody ci"il war. :y depolitici;in the Cu)a portfolio, the United States co ld then )e in to lessen
trade restrictions, startin with promotin cultural e9chan es2 endin the tra"el )an2 and e"entually allo#in for trade in oil2 gas2 and other commodities. J"er time, )illions of dollars in new
trade )etween the two nations will )enefit )oth. ?his would include )oosts to GS farm companies while helpin Cu)ans. Direct relations #o ld also f rther US national sec rit" and
environmental interestsW as C -a opens p, other co ntries will sweep in to see* influence, as China has already done . Especiall" as C -a increasingl" promotes offshore drilling and other maritime e9ploration, the United States m st improve comm nication with Fa"ana. Currently, e"en thou h the Gnited States and Cu)a are separated )y a narrow channel, the t#o co ntries have no -ilateral comm nications to ens re safet" standards for their m t al protection from oil spills .
Secretary of State 7ohn (erry should ma*e Cu)a a focus of his first months in office. Gnfortunately, his successor as chairman of the Senate Forei n +elations Committee is +o)ert $enende; of 'ew 7ersey, a son of Cu)an immi rants who has opposed the administration1s efforts to ease relations. $enende; will need to )e con"inced that he can help Cu)ans more )y resettin American policy. A)sent military inter"ention, there are ver" fe#
opport nities for a president to dramaticall" alter relations with a historic foe2 J)ama has ta*en such ad"anta e of a disorientin ly rapid li)erali;ation )y :urma1s military rulers. 3a l Castros recent decision to lift tra"el restrictions on Cu)an citi;ens is similarly momentous I and signals that the timing is ripe for a ne# diplomatic agenda #ith C -a%
Lin! C -a <il
4lan shores p US-C -an relations7stops Chinese engagement .en/amin-Alvadaro 8E (7onathan, +eport for the Cu)an +esearch &nstitute,
Florida &nternational Gni"ersity, 6hM, 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at Gni"ersity of 'e)ras*a at Jmaha, Mirector of the &ntelli ence Community Centers of Academic %9cellence 6ro ram at G'J, ?reasurer of the American 6olitical Science Association, ?he Current Status and Future 6rospects for Jil %9ploration in Cu)a: A Special, http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned0reports/oil0cu)a0al"arado.pdf# >iven that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations -et#een the governments of the United States and C -a, the le"el of interest has gro#n significantl" in the 4 years due primarily to three reasons in the followin interest areas: ener y security interests2 )roader re ional strate ic2
and purely economic interests. First, the ener y security interests in the potential of Cu)an oil O althou h it really would not minimi;e the immediacy of an American ener y crisis O is seen as possi)le if only partial remedy to ener y supply concerns. Second,
as C -a2 in part -eca se of the increasing n m-er of oil partnerships f rthers its diplomatic and economic ties to #ith co ntries li!e *ene+ ela2 China2 .ra+il and mem)ers of the %uropean Gnion it ma" prove to provide C -a for a s fficient - ffer against U%S% opposition as it solidifies it economic and diplomatic role in the re ion. ?his is important inasmuch as there is a de facto trend in the Americas that clearly disa"ows and attempts to minimi+e the infl ence of the United States in the region, and with the rowin demands on the world economy )y China, it stands to reason that C -a ma" ass me an increasing stat re that almost potentiall" lessens the presence of American infl ence in C -an and hence regional affairs% Finally, and as demonstrated )y the presence of American oil interests in the Fe)ruary .>>D G.S.0 Cu)an %ner y Summit in $e9ico City, there ma" -e interest in cooperating in /oint vent re pro/ects2 and )y e9tension assisting in the long-term development in C -as oil ind str"% ) ?o accomplish this tas*
the report see*s to lay out some national security policy considerations applyin strate ic thou ht to what & will term 6ost0Jil Cu)a O a Cu)a that has a small )ut "i)rant and rowin oil and as production capacity with e9tensi"e relations with a num)er of partners, and an increasin ly positi"e outloo* toward addressin ener y and economic de"elopment Luestions that ha"e pla ued the Castro re ime since the Cu)an +e"olution.45 ?he primary consideration is to determine the present state of Cu)an ener y and what possi)ilities e9ist that would )e a"aila)le to American forei n policy decision ma*ers and )usiness interests as the relations with Cu)a e"ol"e o"er the comin years./
,his is important -eca se an" realistic appraisal of ho# C -a is to ta!e advantage of its oil -onan+a involves the United States% 6re"ious research in this area has clearly laid out the scope and o)@ecti"es of Cu)an ener y de"elopment schemes in the period since the demise of Cu)a1s fa"ora)le trade arran ements with the former So"iet Gnion. +ecently, and as a res lt of the oil discover" and C -as energ" arrangement #ith the o"ernment of Fu o Chave+ in Cene;uela there is rene#ed interest in 'avanas energ" policies% $ost of
that analysis has )een focused on concrete possi)ilities where there can )e cooperation in the ener y field )etween these two nei h)ors. Specifically,
the #or! has loo!ed at areas for the convergence of energ" interests as they apply to the near0 and lon 0term ener y de"elopment scenarios facin )oth countries. $yers Jaffe and Soligo have addressed this possi)ility -" loo!ing at the potential to increase diversification and dispersion of energ" reso rces% ?his is an important consideration when one ta*es into consideration that well
o"er one0third of all oil refinin capacity resides on or near the Fouston shippin channel. ?he potential ne ati"e impact on America1s refinin capacity followin Furricane +itaH made a si nificant impression on oil industry analysts for the necessity of di"ersifyin the location of these "ital national resources. ?he potential of "iewin Cu)a as a sta in area for American oil stora e and refinin is plausi)le )ecause of the pro9imity of the island. ?he also )ecomes more attracti"e )ecause of the rowin climatic concerns o"er the uncertain security of oil resources in the 8ulf re ion as clearly demonstrated )y Furricanes (atrina and +ita in .>>H. <hile it is true that Cene;uela has initiated an in"estment of ,- )illion dollars to )rin the
there are still man" other possi-ilities open and availa-le to American companies2 as #ell as a gro#ing n m-er of foreign firms .D Additionally,
Cienfue os refinery online, Additionally,
Cene;uela remains the fourth lar est importer of oil to the Gnited States and one can surmise that the e9istin trade arran ements )etween the G.S. and Cene;uela will remain intact, the e"olution of the :oli"arian re"olution under Cha"e; and a rowin Chinese presence in the re ion notwithstandin .
p rs ing s ch a path #o ld allo# United States polic"ma!ers to ta!e advantage of #hat C -a has to offer in the followin areas: domestic technical capa-ilities2 continuin human capital de"elopment2 strategic positioning in the Cari--ean2 and an improved diplomatic stat re% Cu)a, )y any measure, possesses a lar ely untapped technical capacity owin to
ad"anced trainin and education in the core mathematic and scientific areas. ?his was clearly demonstrated )y its attempt to de"elop a nuclear ener y capa)ility in the -=3>s and -==>s where)y thousands of Cu)ans pursued hi hly technical career paths lea"in Cu)a with amon the hi hest ratios of scientists and en ineers to the eneral population in all of the Americas. $oreo"er, the foundation of Cu)a1s "aunted pu)lic education system remains
intact and increased in"estment under "arious scenarios su ests that Cu)a will continue to produce a welleducated wor*force that will )e critical to its future economic "itality. ?his raises an important consideration that )ein the role that Cu)a will play in the re ion in the .-st century. &t suffices to say that )y "irtue of its eo raphical location alone, in efforts a ainst dru and human traffic*in and related national and re ional security matters. ?he e9tent to which a sta)le Cu)an o"ernment has cooperated with the G.S. in dru interdiction efforts in the past su ests that the results from
C -a remains the strategicall" important state
improved diplomatic
relations )etween nei
h)ors would ha"e the effect of impro"in national security concerns related to terrorist acti"ity, illicit weapons transfers
ma" #ell enhance and sta-ili+e regional relations that co ld possi-l" lessen (or at a minimum, )alancin # fears of a Chinese inc rsion in hemispheric affairs % ?o lessen those fears it may )e useful to re"iew the present
and the li*e. Gltimately, a successful normali;ation of relations )etween the G.S. and Cu)a in these areas structure of @oint0"enture pro@ects in the ener y sector in Cu)a to ascertain the feasi)ility and possi)le success of such an underta*in )ecome a"aila)le to American firms. $oreo"er, it is interestin to note that G.S. firms in the a riculture sector ha"e successfully ne otiated and consummated sales to Cu)a totalin more than ,- )illion dollars o"er the past four years under conditions that are less than optimal circumstances )ut ha"e well0ser"ed the commercial interests of all parties in"ol"ed.
Lin! A$( C -a Doesnt Spillover

Spills over thro gho t the region ,isdall A-F Simon ?isdall, writer for the 8uardian, $arch Hth, .>-4, YMeath of
Fu o ChU"e; )rin s chance of fresh start for GS and Batin AmericaY www. uardian.co.u*/world/.>-4/mar/>H/hu o0cha"e;0dead0us0latin0america/print Fu o ChXve+Ms depart re f rnishes .arac! <-ama #ith an opport nit" to repair US ties #ith *ene+ ela2 - t also #ith other Latin American states #hose relations #ith &ashington #ere adversel" affected -" ChXve+Ms politics of polarisation and the . sh administrationMs viscerall" nintelligent reaction.5 &n particular, the change of leadership in Caracas co ld nloc! the deadloc! over C -a, if the <hite Fouse can summon the reLuisite political will.5 6ossi)ly anticipatin a transition, <ashin ton
Luietly en ineered a diplomatic openin with Caracas last 'o"em)er after a len thy standoff durin which am)assadors were withdrawn. 5 +o)erta 7aco)son, assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs, telephoned 'icolUs $aduro, Cene;uela's "ice0president and ChU"e;'s preferred successor, and discussed, amon other thin s, the restoration of full diplomatic relations.5 YAccordin to GS officials, the Cene;uelan "ice0president offered to e9chan e am)assadors on the occasion of the )e innin of 6resident :arac* J)ama's second term. 7aco)son, in turn, is said to ha"e proposed a step0)y0step approach to impro"e )ilateral relations, startin with reater co0operation in counter0narcotics, counter0terrorism and ener y issues,Y Andres Jppenheimer reported in the $iami Ferald. 5 ?here is much round to ma*e up. Y+elations )etween the Gnited States and Cene;uela ha"e ran ed from difficult to hostile since ChU"e; too* office in -=== and )e an to implement what he calls .-st0century socialism,Y wrote a former GS am)assador to Caracas, Charles Shapiro. 5 YChU"e; )lamed a failed .>>. coup a ainst him on the Gnited States (not true#, nationalised GS companies, insulted the president of the Gnited States and )lamed 'the empire' O his term for the Gnited States O for e"ery ill K &n forei n affairs, the o"ernment acti"ely supports the Assad re ime in Syria, re@ects sanctions on &ran and enerally opposes the GS at e"ery turn.Y 5 Mespite such strains, economic self0interest always pre"ented a complete rupture. ?he GS remained Cene;uela's most important tradin partner throu hout ChU"e;'s presidency, )uyin nearly half its oil e9ports. Caracas is the fourth lar est supplier of oil to the GS. 5 &n fact, the GS imports more crude oil annually from $e9ico and Cene;uela than from the entire 6ersian 8ulf. ?his shared commerce now pro"ides a formida)le incenti"e and a launch platform for a fresh start. 5 <hether the opportunity is rasped depends partly on $aduro, a ChU"e; loyalist )ut
it depends even more on <-ama2 #hose first term2 after a promising start2 ended p perpet ating &ashingtonMs historical neglect of Latin America. 'e no# has a chance to do -etter.5 ?he political climate seems propitious. %conomic and cultural ties are also stren thenin dramatically. ?rade )etween the GS and Batin America rew )y 3.[ )etween -==3 and .>>=. &n .>-- alone, e9ports and imports rose )y a massi"e .>[ in )oth directions.5 Y<e do three times more )usiness with Batin America than with China and twice as
a reputed pra matist with close ties to +acl Castro in Cu)a. 5 Eet much )usiness with Colom)ia NasP with +ussia,Y an J)ama official told 7ulia Swei of the GS Council on Forei n +elations. Batinos now comprise -H[ of the GS population2 the GS is the world's second lar est Spanish0spea*in country (after $e9ico#. 5 Mespite this con"er ence, hi h0le"el GS strate ic thin*in a)out the re ion has continued to la , Swei ar ued. 5 YFor the last two decades, GS domestic politics ha"e too often dri"en <ashin ton's Batin America a enda O whether on issues of trade, immi ration, dru s, uns or that perennial political al)atross, Cu)a, lon dri"en )y the supposedly crucial 'Cu)an "ote' in Florida,Y she said. 5
J)ama could chan e this dynamic if he tried and one #a" to do it #o ld -e to npic! the C -an pro-lem2 #hich contin es to colo r the #a" Latin Americans vie# &ashington.5 YFa"in won nearly half of the Cu)an American "ote in Florida in .>-., a ain of -H percenta e points o"er .>>3, J)ama can mo"e Luic*ly on Cu)a. &f he were to do so, he would find a cautious )ut willin partner in +acl Castro2 #ho needs rapprochement #ith &ashington to advance his o#n reform agenda,Y Swei said.
Cari--ean nations are !e" China is shifting its foc s there Sanche+ and , 1$ (Ale9 O +esearch Fellow at Council on Femispheric Affairs,
and Bynn O +esearch Associate at Council on Femispheric Affairs, China "s. ?aiwan: :attle for &nfluence in the Cari))ean, 4/-4, http://www.coha.or /china0"s0taiwan0 )attle0for0influence0in0the0cari))ean/ :ei@in "s. ?aipei Certainl" a critical aspect regarding the extent of Chinese interests in the Cari--ean, as pre"iously has )een reflected upon, is .ei/ings interest for Cari--ean islands to adopt mainland Chinas negative stance on ,ai#an. &n the past few years, China has ta!en an aggressive approach in attempting to diss ade ,aipeis a-ilit" to invest in this region. Since eleven out of twenty0three of ,ai#ans s rviving diplomatic relationships can -e fo nd #ithin the 8reater Cari--ean2N.>P it is of distinct importance for China to ens re that it maintains ro- st ties #ith Latin American and Cari--ean co ntries for political reasons, while also managing to limit ,aipeis involvement in the re ion. <ithout includin the
Central American states, the Cari))ean nations that currently reco ni;e ?aiwan are the Mominican +epu)lic, Faiti, Saint (itts and 'e"is, Saint Bucia, as well as Saint Cincent and the 8renadines. Currently, the lon standin
diplomatic competition )etween the two Chinas seems to )e coolin down, due to incum)ent ?aiwanese president $a Ein 0@eou )ein re0elected.N.-P &t seems clear that 6resident $a wants to promote a peaceful path towards cross0strait relations de"elopment, and hence the su)tle tu 0of0war o"er diplomatic reco nition seems, at least for the time )ein , to )e comin to an end.
Lin! *ene+ ela

Engagement !e" to chec! Chinese infl ence Dal" 1$
N7ohn, Jilprice.com, Cene;uela +amps up China Jil %9ports Gnsettlin <ashin ton, 3/.-/-., http://oilprice.com/%ner y/Crude0Jil/Cene;uela0+amps0up0China0Jil0 %9ports0Gnsettlin 0<ashin ton.htmlP ,he -iggest geostrategic change of the past decade overloo!ed -" &ashington policy won*s in their fi9ation on their self0proclaimed war on terror is that Batin America has )een throwin off the shac*les of the $onroe Moctrine % ,hese ignored developments ma" #ell soon refoc s &ashingtons attention on the So thern 'emisphere, as Cene;uela1s 6resident Fu o Chave+ reorients his co ntr"1s to China. &t is not an
inconsidera)le element of concern for the J)ama administration. Accordin to the G.S. %ner y Administration, the Gnited States total crude oil imports now a"era e =.>44 million )arrels per day, with the top fi"e e9portin countries )ein Canada (..DDD m)pd#, $e9ico (-.4-= m)pd#, Saudi Ara)ia (-.->S m)pd#, with Cene;uela in fourth place at =4> thousand )arrels per day. 'ote that two of America1s top four ener y importers are south of the +io 8rande. Furthermore, Cene;uela1s reser"es accordin to J6%C now top those of Saudi Ara)ia, with Cene;uela now estimated to ha"e the lar est con"entional oil reser"es and the second0lar est natural as reser"es in the <estern Femisphere. ?wo years a o J6%C reported that of the or ani;ation1s 3-.44 percent of the lo)e1s *nown oil reser"es Cene;uela had ./.3 percent, e9ceedin Saudi Ara)ia with .... So, why is Cha"e; in <ashin ton1s )ad )oo*sR <ell, amon other reasons, for the company he *eeps, as the +ussian Federation, &ran and Cu)a are all allies. 'ote that the first two are also ma@or oil e9porters. <orse howe"er are the social pro rams that Cha"e; has implemented to )enefit his people, which not only smac* of socialism )ut offer an alternati"e to <ashin ton1s proscriptions. Case in point 0 Cene;uela1s health care system. A @oint Cu)an0Cene;uelan medical pro ram, :arrio Adentro, has made health care free and accessi)le to all Cene;uelans. Founded in .>>4, :arrio Adentro e9panded Cene;uela1s national health care system )y employin more than 4>,>>> Cu)an medical professionals as the o"ernment eLuipped clinics and hospitals with ad"anced hi h technolo y dia nostic and sur ical eLuipment. Somethin that Americans mi ht consider as the presidential race heats up, with $edicare on the ta)le. Such
alternatives hardly please the powers that )e in <ashin ton, )ut are increasingl" considered in Latin America. :ut, )ac* to ener y. Mespite the primacy of Cene;uelan oil sales to the G.S. Caracas is shiftin ears, and China #ill soon to -ecome *ene+ elas main trade partner, with oil sales sur in D> percent in .>-.. Murin a recent
inter"iew Jil $inister +afael +amire; said, <e are sellin D/>.>>> )arrels of petrol per day to China. ?his is now eLui"alent to ./4 of Cene;uela1s oil e9ports to the G.S., up from />>,>>> )arrels per day in Fe)ruary. For those with a sense of history, )efore 6resident Cha"e; too* office in -===, Cene;uela did not ship oil to China, )ut Cha"e; has stated that )y .>-H he intends to ramp up Cene;uelan oil e9ports to China to one million )arrels of crude per day. Accordin to +amire;, the rise in e9ports will come from increased production in the natural resource0rich Jrinoco Jil :elt in the east of the country.
;t is hard to see this emphasis shift as an"thing - t a short-sighted diplomatic disaster for the U%S% Compoundin the de radation of <ashin ton, which insists that China in Africa in particular e9ploits poor nations )y )uyin resources at roc* )ottom prices, +amire; said simply, Y &e are selling oil to China at a -etter price than #hat is sold in the U%S% mar!et%M ' And, i"en <ashin ton1s forei n aid
stin iness, last wee* 6resident Cha"e; announced that China Me"elopment :an* will )an*roll ,/ )illion dollars in de"elopment pro@ects, to include housin , ener y and industrial rowth. A ain, those with a sense of history mi ht note that the year Cha"e; too* office, Cene;uela e9ported to the G.S. mar*et -.H million )pd.
So2 #here does &ashington go from hereY ;f it #ants to preserve its increasingl" ten o s foothold in a nation with the #orlds largest oil reserves, it might -egin -" engaging in some honest diplomac"%
China fills in a-sent U%S% engagement in *ene+ ela Arsena lt 1A

NChris, Al@a;eera, 4/-./-4,Cene;uela loo*s to China for economic )oost , http://www.al@a;eera.com/indepth/features/.>-4/>4/.>-44-.S->H443=4H-.htmlP As Chinas economic and political footprint gro#s across Latin America and Africa, worryin some and enrichin others, Al"aro +ui; Sanche+ has his e"es on the pri+e. 6resident of JrJctradin , a consultin firm, Sanche; 0 sportin thic* cufflin*s with the red Chinese fla and a dar* )la;er 0 has )een teachin *ene+ elan companies a)out doing - siness #ith the #orlds secondlargest econom". Gsually, manufactured oods from China are comin into Batin America and raw materials are oin out, Sanche; told Al 7a;eera. *ene+ ela has posted a positive trade -alance #ith China2 -eca se of oil exports , )ut without those we would ha"e a ma@or deficit. ,rade -et#een *ene+ ela2 holder of the world1s lar est oil reser"es, and China gre# to ,-3)n in $811, a ./0fold
increase from .>>4, reported China Maily, a o"ernment0)ac*ed newspaper % *ene+ ela exports more than F882888 -arrels of oil to the Asian giant dail"2 according to government fig res2 and plans to increase that to one million -" $81F% ,he t#o co ntries had signed A88 -ilateral agreements2 incl ding P8 ma/or pro/ects, accordin to a Gni"ersity of $iami study in .>->. As relations -et#een *ene+ ela and the US so red in recent "ears2 *ene+ ela loo!ed a#a" from its traditional trading partner to#ards the east% China co ld soon s rpass the US as *ene+ elas largest trading partner. Cene;uela's interim 6resident 'icolas $aduro, who too* the @o) followin the death of 6resident Fu o Cha"e; on $arch H, held tal*s with Chinese officials o"er the wee*end. Y,he -est tri- te that #e co ld give to o r comandante Chave+ is to deepen o r strategic relationship #ith o r -eloved China,Y said $aduro, who once ser"ed as Cene;uela1s forei n minister. &n a tele"ised meetin with $aduro, Than 6in , chairman of China1s 'ational Me"elopment and +eform Commission, said deepening relations -et#een China and *ene+ ela1 are 0the onl" #a" to comfort the so l of 4resident ' go Chave+.
China and the US are competing for *ene+ elan mar!ets ones gain is the others lost Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er,
$assachusetts. Bi has pu)lished do;ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies, 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism, ?he Fistorian, 6olicy Studies 7ournal, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science, Asian 6erspecti"e, American 7ournal of Chinese Studies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e, ->0-0$88F N+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep.>>H, Col. -> &ssue ., pSS, http://lin*.sprin er.com/content/pdf/->.->>S/:F>.3SS>.=.pdf, s)ha P ?o date, the Chinese challen es are mainly from the economic arena. %conomically, the Chinese are competing #ith the U%S% for *ene+ elas oil exports and mar!et for man fact red prod cts% 8i"en the current poor state of G.S.0 Cene;uelan relations under the ChU"e; o"ernment, American o)ser"ers worry that *ene+ elan energ" agreements #ith China ltimatel" ma" serve to divert oil from the United States% D/ <hile Cene;uelan ener y officials ha"e denied this, in Mecem)er .>>/, 6resident ChXve+ was reported to ha"e referred to Cene;uela1s lon oil0 producin history as ->> years of domination )y the Gnited States. Fe asserted that 0No# #e are free2 and place this oil at the disposal of the great Chinese fatherland%1 D
;mpact Econom"
Chinese Econom" 1NC

Chinese infl ence in the region !e" to the glo-al econom" and regime sta-ilit" preventing US infl ence !e" Ellis 11
N+. %"an, Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity.Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America, -st Luarter .>--, http://www.ndu.edu/press/li)/ima es/@fL0 D>/7FAD>!3H0=-!%llis.pdfP Latin American mar!ets are )ecomin increasin ly val a-le for Chinese companies )ecause the" allo# the 43C to e9pand and diversif" its export -ase at a time #hen economic gro#th is slo#ing in traditional mar!ets such as the Gnited States and %urope. ,he region has also pro"en an effective mar!et for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, higher val e added prod cts in sectors seen as strate ic, such as
Access to Batin American $ar*ets. automo)iles, appliances, computers and telecommunication eLuipment, and aircraft. &n e9pandin access for its products throu h free trade accords with countries such as Chile, 6eru, and Costa +ica, and penetratin mar*ets in Batin American countries with e9istin manufacturin sectors such as $e9ico, :ra;il, and Ar entina,
the 43C has often had to overcome esta-lished interests in those nations. &n doin so, the hopes of access to Chinese mar*ets and in"estments amon *ey roups of - sinesspeople and government officials in those nations have pla"ed a !e" role in the political #ill to overcome the resistance. &n Cene;uela, it was said that the prior Chinese am)assador to Cene;uela, Then ?uo, resistance -"
or ani;ed and often politically well0connected was one of the few people in the country who could call 6resident ChU"e; on the telephone and et an instant response if an issue
China has applied more e9plicit press res to ind ce Latin America to !eep its mar!ets open to Chinese oods. &t has specifically protested measures )y the Ar entine and $e9ican o"ernments that it has seen as
arose re ardin a Chinese company. 6rotection of Chinese &n"estments in and ?rade Flows from the +e ion. At times, protectionist: and, in the case of Ar entina, as informal retaliation, China )e an enforcin a lon standin phytosanitary re ulation, causin almost ,. )illion in lost soy e9ports and other dama es for Ar entina.-/ China has also used its economic wei ht to help secure ma@or pro@ects on preferential terms. &n the course of ne otiatin a ,-.S )illion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair Fydroelectric plant in %cuador, the a)ility of the Chinese )idder SinoFidro to self0finance 3H percent of the pro@ects throu h Chinese )an*s helped it to wor* around the traditional %cuadorian reLuirement that the pro@ect ha"e a local partner. Bater, the %cuadorian o"ernment pu)licly and )itterly )ro*e off ne otiations with the Chinese, only to return to the )ar ainin ta)le . months later after failin to find satisfactory alternati"es. &n Cene;uela, the ChU"e; o"ernment a reed, for e9ample, to accept half of the ,.> )illion loaned to it )y the 6+C in Chinese currency, and to use part of that currency to )uy ..=,>>> consumer appliances from the Chinese manufacturer Faier for resale to the Cene;uelan people. &n another deal, the 6+C loaned Cene;uela ,4>> million to start a re ional airline, )ut as part of the deal, reLuired Cene;uela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.-H 6rotection of Chinese 'ationals. As with the Gnited States and other <estern countries, as China )ecomes more in"ol"ed in )usiness and other operations in Batin America, an increasin num)er of its nationals will )e "ulnera)le to ha;ards common to the re ion, such as *idnappin , crime, protests, and related pro)lems. ?he hei htened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern @un le re ion of %cuador, for e9ample, has )een associated with a series of pro)lems, includin the ta*eo"er of an oilfield operated )y the Andes petroleum consortium in ?arapoa in 'o"em)er .>>D, and protests in Jrellana related to a la)or dispute with the Chinese company 6etroriental in .>>S that resulted in the death of more than 4H police officers and forced the declaration of a national state of emer ency. &n .>>/, ethnic Chinese shop*eepers in Calencia and $aracay, Cene;uela, )ecame the focus of "iolent protests associated with the Cene;uelan recall referendum. As such incidents increase 2
the 43C #ill need to rel" increasingl" on a com)ination of good#ill and fear to deter action a ainst its personnel, as #ell as its infl ence #ith governments of the region, to resolve s ch pro-lems #hen the" occ r.,he rise of China is intimately tied to the glo-al econom" thro gh trade2 financial2 and information flo#s2 each of #hich is highl" dependent on glo-al instit tions and cooperation. .eca se of this, some within the 43C leadership see the co ntr"s s stained gro#th and development, and th s the sta-ilit" of the regime2 threatened if an actor s ch as the United States is a-le to limit that cooperation or -loc! glo-al instit tions from s pporting Chinese interests% ;n Latin America2 Chinas attainment of o-server stat s in the JAS in .>>/ and its acceptance into the &AM: in .>>= #ere efforts to o)tain a seat at the ta)le in *ey re ional institutions, and to !eep them from -eing sed 0against1 Chinese interests% &n addition, the 43C has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese mar!ets )y Chile, 6eru, and Costa
to sec re -ilateral free trade agreements, #hose practical effect is to move Latin America a#a" from a U%S%-dominated trading -loc! (the Free ?rade Area of the Americas# in #hich the 43C #o ld have -een disadvantaged%
+ica
Econ decline ca ses #ar

3<=AL 18 Mirector of Cooperati"e ?hreat +eduction at the G.S. Mepartment of Mefense
N7edediah +oyal, .>->, %conomic &nte ration, %conomic Si nalin and the 6ro)lem of %conomic Crises, in %conomics of <ar and 6eace: %conomic, Be al and 6olitical 6erspecti"es, ed. 8oldsmith and :rauer, p. .-40.-HP
Bess intuiti"e is how periods of economic decline may increase the li*elihood of e9ternal conflict. 6olitical science literature has contri)uted a moderate de ree of attention to the impact of
6ollins (.>>3- ad"ances $odcls*i and ?hompson's (-==D# wor* on leadership cycle theory, findin that
economic decline and the security and defence )eha"iour of interdependent stales. +esearch in this "ein has )een considered at systemic, dyadic and national le"els. Se"eral nota)le contri)utions follow. First, on the systemic le"el.
rhythms in the lo)al economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre0eminent power and the often )loody transition from one pre0eminent leader to the ne9t . As such, e9o enous shoc*s such as economic crises could usher in a redistri)ution of relati"e power (see also 8ilpin. -=S7# that leads to uncertainty a)out power )alances , increasin the ris* of miscalculation (Fcaron. -==H#. Alternati"ely, e"en a relati"ely certain redistri)ution of power could lead to a permissi"e en"ironment for conflict as a risin power may see* to challen e a declinin power (<erner. -===#. Separately. 6ollins
(-==D# also shows that lo)al economic cycles com)ined with parallel leadership cycles impact the li*elihood of conflict amon ma@or, medium and small powers, althou h he su ests that the causes and connections )etween lo)al economic conditions and security conditions remain un*nown. Second, on a dyadic le"el. Copeland's (-==D. .>>># theory of trade e9pectations su ests that 'future e9pectation of trade' is a si nificant "aria)le in understandin economic conditions and security )eha"iour of states. Fe ar ues that interdependent states arc li*ely to ain pacific )enefits from trade so lon as they ha"e an optimistic "iew of future trade relations. Fowe"er,
if the e9pectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as ener y resources, the li*elihood for conflict increases, as states will )e inclined to use force to ain access to those resources . Crises could potentially )e the tri er
for decreased trade e9pectations either on its own or )ecause it tri states./ ?hird, ers protectionist mo"es )y interdependent
others ha"e considered the lin* )etween economic decline and e9ternal armed conflict at a national le"el. $om )er and Fess (.>>.# find a stron correlation )etween internal conflict and e9ternal conflict , particularly durin periods of economic downturn. ?hey write. ?he lin*a e, )etween internal and e9ternal conflict and prosperity are stron and mutually reinforcin . %conomic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the fa"our. $oreo"er, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the e9tent to which international and e9ternal conflicts self0reinforce each other (FlomhenR V Fess. .(->.. p. W=X %conomic decline has also )een lin*ed with an increase in the li*elihood of terrorism (:lom)cr . Fess. V <ee ra pan a, .>>/#. which has the capacity to spill across )orders and lead to e9ternal tensions . Furthermore, crises enerally reduce the popularity of a sittin o"ernment . YMi"ersionary theoryY su ests that, when facin unpopularity arisin from economic decline, sittin o"ernments ha"e increased incenti"es to fa)ricate e9ternal military conflicts to create a 'rally around the fla ' effect. <an (-==D#, Mc+oucn
(-==H#, and :lom)cr . Fess, and ?hac*er (.>>D# find supportin e"idence showin that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti# correlated. 8elpi (-==S#. $iller (-===#. and (isan ani and 6ic*erin (.>>=# su est that &he tendency towards di"ersionary tactics arc reater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are enerally more suscepti)le to )ein remo"ed from office due to lac* of domestic support. Me+ouen (.>>># has pro"ided e"idence showin that periods of wea* economic performance in the Gnited States, and thus wea* 6residential popularity, are statistically lin*ed lo an increase in the use of force. &n summary,
economic scholarship positi"ely correlates economic inte ration with an increase in the freLuency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship lin*s economic decline with e9ternal conflict al systemic, dyadic and national le"els.' ?his implied
rcccni
connection )etween inte ration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic0security de)ate and deser"es more attention.
>oes glo-al
?amins!i @
(Antoni T., 6rofessor O &nstitute of 6olitical Studies, <orld Jrder: ?he $echanics of ?hreats (Central %uropean 6erspecti"e#, 6olish Auarterly of &nternational Affairs, -, p. H3# As already ar ued, the economic ad"ance of China has ta*en place with relati"ely few correspondin chan es in the political system, althou h the operation of political and economic institutions has seen some ma@or chan es. Still, tools are missin that would allow the esta)lishment of political and le al foundations for the modem economy, or they are too wea*. ?he tools are efficient pu)lic administration, the rule of law, clearly defined
an economic crisis in China. Considerin the importance of the state for the de"elopment of the lo)al economy, the crisis would ha"e serious lo)al repercussions. &ts political ramifications could )e no less dramatic owin to the
ownership ri hts, efficient )an*in system, etc. For these reasons, many e9perts fear special position the military occupies in the Chinese political system, and the e9istence of many potential "e9ed issues in %ast Asia (disputes o"er islands in the China Sea and the 6acific#.
A potential hot)ed of conflict is also ?aiwan's status. %conomic recession and the related desta)ili;ation of internal policies could lead to a political, or e"en military crisis. ?he li*elihood of the lo)al escalation of the conflict is hi h, as the interests of +ussia, China, 7apan, Australia and, first and foremost, the GS clash in the re ion.
Chinese Econom" $NC

Disad o t#eighs and t rns the case Chinese econ decline ca ses glo-al decline and lasho t thats ?amins!i and 3o"al- prefer o r scenario its gro nded in statistical st dies and empirical anal"sis And o r Ellis evidence indicates it #o ld collapse the CC4 Ca ses -io#eapon se
3exing F (San, Staff O %poch ?imes, ?he CC61s Bast Mitch 8am)le: :iolo ical and 'uclear <ar, 30H, http://en lish.epochtimes.com/news/H030H/4>=SH.html# Since the 6arty1s life is a)o"e all else, it would not )e surprisin if the CC6 resorts to the use of -iological2 chemical, and n clear #eapons in its attempt to e9tend its life. ?he CC6, which disre ards human life, would not hesitate to *ill two hundred million Americans, alon with se"en or ei ht hundred million Chinese , to achie"e its ends. ?hese
speeches let the pu)lic see the CC6 for what it really is. <ith e"il fillin its e"ery cell the CC6 intends to wa e a war a ainst human*ind in its desperate attempt to clin to life. ?hat is the main theme of the speeches. ?his theme is murderous and utterly e"il. &n China we ha"e seen )e ars who coerced people to i"e them money )y threatenin to sta) themsel"es with *ni"es or pierce their throats with lon nails. :ut we ha"e ne"er, until now, seen such a an ster who would use )iolo ical, chemical, and nuclear weapons to threaten the world, that they will die to ether
the CC61s nature: ?hat of a monstrous murderer who has *illed 3> million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one -illion people hosta e and am)le with their li"es.
with him. ?his )loody confession has confirmed
Extinction Sand-erg et al PI+esearch Fellow at the Future of Fumanity &nstitute at J9ford Gni"ersity. 6hM in
computation neuroscience, Stoc*holmIA'MI7ason 8. $athenyI6hM candidate in Fealth 6olicy and $ana ement at 7ohns Fop*ins. special consultant to the Center for :iosecurity at the Gni"ersity of 6itts)ur hIA'MI$ilan $. gir*o"ihIsenior research associate at the Astronomical J)ser"atory of :el rade. Assistant professor of physics at the Gni"ersity of 'o"i Sad. (Anders, Fow can we reduce the ris* of human e9tinctionR, = Septem)er .>>3, http://www.the)ulletin.or /we)0edition/features/how0can0we0reduce0the0ris*0of0human0e9tinction# ?he ris*s from anthropo enic ha;ards appear at present lar er than those from natural ones. Althou h reat pro ress has )een made in reducin the num)er of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened )y
<e may face e"en reater ris*s from emer in technolo ies. Ad"ances in synthetic )iolo y mi ht ma*e it possi)le to en ineer patho ens capa)le of e9tinction0le"el pandemics. ?he *nowled e,
the possi)ility of a lo)al thermonuclear war and a resultin nuclear winter. weapons. And
eLuipment, and materials needed to en ineer patho ens are more accessi)le than those needed to )uild nuclear
unli*e other weapons, patho ens are self0replicatin , allowin a small arsenal to )ecome e9ponentially destructi"e . 6atho ens ha"e )een implicated in the e9tinctions of many wild species. Althou h most pandemics Yfade outY )y reducin the density of suscepti)le populations, patho ens with wide host ran es in multiple species can reach e"en isolated indi"iduals. ?he intentional or unintentional release of en ineered patho ens with hi h transmissi)ility, latency, and lethality mi ht )e capa)le of causin human e9tinction . <hile such an e"ent seems unli*ely today, the li*elihood may increase as )iotechnolo ies continue to impro"e at a rate ri"alin $oore's Baw.
A$( Collapse Doesnt >o N clear

>oes n clear 5erlini 11
NCesare $erlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the Gnited States and %urope and chairman of the :oard of ?rustees of the &talian &nstitute for &nternational Affairs (&A&# in +ome. Fe ser"ed as &A& president from -=S= to .>>-. Gntil .>>=, he also occupied the position of e9ecuti"e "ice chairman of the Council for the Gnited States and &taly, which he co0founded in -=34. Fis areas of e9pertise include transatlantic relations, %uropean inte ration and nuclear non0proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technolo y. A 6ost0Secular <orldR MJ&: ->.->3>/>>4=D443..>--.HS->-H Article +eLuests: Jrder +eprints : +eLuest 6ermissions 6u)lished in: @ournal Sur"i"al, Colume H4, &ssue . April .>-- , pa es --S 0 -4> 6u)lication FreLuency: D issues per year Mownload 6MF Mownload 6MF (4HS (:# Ciew +elated Articles ?o cite this Article: $erlini, Cesare 'A 6ost0Secular <orldR', Sur"i"al, H4:., --S O -4>P
?wo neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the ran e of possi)ilities, al)eit at the ris* of o"ersimplification. ?he first scenario entails the premature of the post0<estphalian system. Jne or more of the acute tensions apparent today e"ol"es into an open and traditional conflict )etween states, perhaps e"en involving the se of n clear #eapons. ?he crisis mi ht )e tri ered )y a collapse of the lo)al economic and financial system, the "ulnera)ility of which we ha"e @ust e9perienced, and the prospect of a second 8reat Mepression, with conseLuences for peace and democracy similar to those of the first . <hate"er the tri er, the unlimited e9ercise of national crum)lin so"erei nty, e9clusi"e self0interest and re@ection of outside interference would li*ely )e amplified, emptyin , perhaps entirely, the half0full lass of multilateralism, includin the G' and
tensions such as those related to immi ration mi ht )ecome un)eara)le . Familiar issues of creed and identity could )e e9acer)ated. Jne way or another, the secular rational approach #o ld -e sidestepped )y a return to theocratic a)solutes, competin or con"er in with secular a)solutes such as un)ridled nationalism.
the %uropean Gnion. $any of the more li*ely conflicts, such as )etween &srael and &ran or &ndia and 6a*istan, ha"e potential reli ious dimensions. Short of war,
Ext China Collapse Escalates

Economic gro#th prevents CC4 lash o t Susan Shir! (director of the Gni"ersity of California system0wide &nstitute on 8lo)al Conflict and Cooperation# and Fo $iu Lam (professor of China and 6acific
+elations at &+/6S and Meputy Assistant Secretary of State in the :ureau of %ast Asia and 6acific Affairs# $88@ Fra ile China As Chinas leaders well !no#2 the greatest political ris! lyin ahead of them is the possi-ilit" of an economic crash that thro#s millions of #or!ers o t of their /o-s or sends millions of depositors to withdraw their sa"in s from the sha*y )an*in system. A massi"e en"ironmental or pu)lic health disaster could also trigger regime collapse, especially if people1s li"es are endan ered )y a media co"er0up imposed )y 6arty authorities. Nation#ide re-ellion -ecomes a real possi-ilit" #hen large n m-ers of people are pset a-o t the same iss e at the same time. Another dan erous scenario is a domestic or international crisis in #hich the CC4 leaders feel compelled to lash o t a ainst 7apan, ?aiwan, or the Gnited States )ecause from their point of "iew not lashin out mi ht endan er 6arty rule.
Ext Latin America ?$ Econ

Latin America !e" to Chinas econom"- trade and reso rces Jiang $88@
NShi9ue 7ian , Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences?hree Factors in the +ecent Me"elopment of Sino0Batin American +elations, %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP Chinese achievements in the realm of reform and opening to the o tside #orld have -een impressive. :ut there are pro)lems. First of all, China is facing increasing friction #ith the developed countries, which ha"e freLuently used anti0dumpin practices and other means to restrict Chinese e9ports. 6rom time to time2 the United States ses economic leverage to exert political press re on China. ?herefore, it is imperative for China to red ce economic dependence pon the Gnited States and other developed co ntries% ?o reali;e this oal, China needs to di"ersify its trade partners . &n this re ard2 Latin America, a continent with a population of more than H>> million people and an economic si;e of more than GS,. trillion2 is certainl" a -ig mar!et for Chinese prod cts% Second, while China is a nation with a reat amount of natural resources, )ecause of its hu e population 2 China is also lac!ing reso rces in terms of per capita distri)ution. Consider forest area and tim)er, for e9ample. Accordin to
recent statistics, China1s forest area is -.. million sLuare *ilometers, and tim)er resources are a)out -> )illion cu)ic meters. ?hese two a)solute num)ers are hu e compared to many other countries in the world. :ut in per capita terms, China1s forest area is merely >.-> hectares, and tim)er resources are less than -> cu)ic meters, as compared with the world a"era e of -.>S hectares and 34 cu)ic meters, respecti"ely. Accordin to a report
Chinas per capita reserves of coal2 oil and gas are onl" @8 percent2 11 percent2 and K percent of the #orld average.- Jn the one hand, the nation should ma*e strenuous efforts to up rade the efZ ciency of usin its resources2 on the other, it needs to locate s pplies from a-road% Latin America is the perfect place from #hich China can import man" !inds of needed reso rces . Additionally, the importance of Batin America oes )eyond the economic area. 6olitically spea*in , Latin America co ld -e a partner for China and other de"elopin countries in their efforts to oppose he emony, esta)lish a @ust world order, and a harmonious world. .oth Latin America and China share man" common or similar positions to#ards some of the ma/or international iss es. Also noteworthy is the fact that in the Gnited 'ations, each country en@oys one "ote, and China has the potential to #in s pport from Latin American co ntries on man" iss es%
pu)lished in .>>D,
Latin America is !e" to the Chinese econom"-Ne# mar!ets are

necessar"
Ellis 8E
is a professor of national security studies, modelin , amin , and simulation with the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies, with a research focus on Batin America1s relationships with e9ternal actors, includin China, +ussia, and &ran, ?he 'ew Chinese %n a ement <ith Batin America: Gnderstandin &ts Mynamics and the &mplications for the +e ion, Air and Space 6ower 7ournal, =/.-/>D,
(+. %"an %llis,
http://www.airpower.ma9well.af.mil/ap@international/ap@0 s/.>>D/4tri>D/ellisen .html#

Altho gh China is a large and reso rce-rich nation2 rapid and s stained Chinese economic gro#th over the past $@ "ears has generated levels of demand for ra# materials that exceed #hat it can prod ce domesticall" or o-tain #ithin Asia% Since -=S=, the Chinese economy has rown at an a"era e rate of =.D[, includin a
->.-[ rate of rowth in .>>/, and a forecast rate of =.=[ in .>>D. $oreo"er, the current (--th# Chinese H0Eear 6lan concentrates resources on e9tendin industriali;ation to the nation1s interior. ,he res lting dedication
of reso rces on fixed capital formation f rther a gments Chinese reso rce cons mption% Althou h China only accounts for /./[ of lo)al 8'6, for e9ample, the nation consumes S./[
of the world1s oil, 4-[ of the world1s coal, 4>[ of the world1s iron, .S[ of the world1s rolled steel, and />[ of the world1s cement.5 <n the s ppl" side2 China has simpl" -een na-le to !eep p
#ith demand in !e" sectors s ch as petrole m and selected metals2 despite am-itio s exploration efforts and investment in capacit" expansion. Chinese a riculture has )een limited, for e9ample, )y inefficiency, limits in suita)le terrain, and
encroachment )y de"elopers on traditional a ricultural lands. From .>>- to .>>H, for e9ample, Chinese demand for soy)ean oil dou)led. <hile the story is sli htly different in each sector, the com)ination of demand rowth and supply limitations has )een an e9plosi"e rowth in Chinese imports of a wide ran e of lo)al commodities. &n the first -- months of .>>H, for e9ample, China reported that it imported ,-44.S )illion in primary products, representin a .D..[ increase o"er the same period in .>>/. <ithin this cate ory, Chinese imports of fuel products increased )y 4H[, while minerals and metal imports increased )y .D.-[. 5 Chinas increasingl" ac te
need to import the reso rces that it re: ires to s stain its high rates of economic gro#th not onl" has increased its demands on its c rrent net#or! of s ppliers2 - t has prompted it to engage in an ever--roader search to sec re f t re so rces of s ppl"% ,his : est has led China not only into ne# forms of economic and political engagement #ith Latin America , )ut also in Africa, the $iddle %ast, and other parts of the world. Altho gh Chinas other glo-al initiatives are also important2 it has a partic larl" strong interest in Latin America -eca se the region is oriented to export significant : antities of a -road range of primar" prod cts that China needs to s stain its economic gro#th%
Latin America is !e" to the Chinese econom" .lac!more 1A

(%mma :lac*more is a researcher in the Sustaina)le $ar*ets 8roup at &&%M, +eport scopes sustaina)ility of China0 Batin America relations, &nternational &nstitute for %n"ironment and Me"lopment, H/=/-4, http://www.iied.or /report0 scopes0sustaina)ility0china0latin0america0relations#
Development2 sa"s s staina-ilit" is increasingl" on the agenda in trade and investment relations -et#een the t#o regions2 and that Chinese companies are sho#ing signs of learning from the previo s mista!es the"ve made in international investments.5 ?he discussion paper uses primary and secondary data sources and inter"iews with sta*eholders to e9amine Chinese trade and in"estment in minin , a riculture and forestry in Chile, :ra;il and 6eru. ;t sho#s ho# complex interactions -et#een reg lations2 shareholder and investor demands2 cons mer preferences and civil societ" press re shape the s staina-ilit" of these ne# relationships% ) OChinas demand for materials from tim-er and minerals to so"-eans2 its desire to access ne# mar!ets and its strateg" of so th-so th cooperation and 9soft po#er diplomac" are driving a -oom in trade and investment that #ill have important implications for the s staina-ilit" of nat ral reso rce development in the re ion,Y says %mma :lac*more, the report1s lead author. 5 Y,o satisf" the demands of investors2
A report pu)lished today )y the &nternational &nstitute for %n"ironment and
cons mers and other sta!eholders2 - sinesses involved in this trade increasingl" appl" international standards that aim to ens re s staina-le2 acco nta-le operations%O
Chinese <il $NC

Specificall" !e" to Chinese oil sec rit" Cerna 11
N$ichael, China +esearch Center, China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G.S. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion, //-H/--, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P Chinas thirst for nat ral reso rces has sent the co ntr" in search of s staina-le s pplies of oil2 soy and iron ore. ;n So th America, China has fo nd some of the most #ell-endo#ed partners in the world. China is devo ring Latin American commodities and eyein a mar*et of H>> million people. Co ntries in So th America ha"e ara)le land and need o r technolog" and investment, and the" #elcome o r companies. &t1s a win0win solution, said <an Eun*un, deputy director of the A riculture and +ural Affairs Committee of the
'ational 6eople1s Con ress, as reported )y $erco6ress. &n .>>D, more than 4D[ of Chile1s total e9ports were directed toward Asia, with China ta*in -.[ of the total. Chile was the first Batin American country to complete a ma@or )ilateral trade a reement with China (Santiso, .>>S#. Since then China has loo*ed )eyond Chile, also tar etin :ra;il, Cene;uela, %cuador, Ar entina and 6eru. &n .>>=, China )ecame :ra;il1s lar est sin le e9port mar*et, eclipsin the G.S. for the first time in history. Bater, :ra;il1s then0 president, Bui; &nacio Bula da Sil"a, and his Chinese counterpart, Fu 7intao, si ned an a reement that allowed the China Me"elopment :an* and Sinopec to loan :ra;il1s state0controlled oil company, 6etro)ras, ,-> )illion in return for as many as .>>,>>>
China is sei+ing lending opport nities in Latin America when traditional lenders such as the &nter0American Me"elopment :an* are
)arrels a day of crude oil for ten years (%conomist, .>>=#. ?his is )ut one e9ample of how )ein pushed to their limits. 7ust one of China1s loans, the ,-> )illion for :ra;il1s national oil company, is almost as much as the ,--.. )illion in all appro"ed financin )y the &nter0American :an* in .>>3, accordin to ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes. &t was not only in
;n order to meet rising ind strial needs and consumer demand, China has p rs ed investments and agreements #ith a variet" of Latin American oil prod cers. &n .>>S *ene+ ela agreed to a ,D )illion /oint investment f nd for infrastructure pro/ects at home and for oil refineries in China a-le to process *ene+ elan heav" cr de oil (Santiso, .>>S#. Cene;uela planned to increase oil e9ports to China )y 4>>,>>> )arrels per day. ?hen in .>>=, *ene+ ela anno nced a ,-D )illion in"estment deal #ith the Chinese 'ational 6etroleum Corporation (CN4C# for oil exploration in the Jrinoco +i"er to develop heav" cr de oil reso rces (%conomist, .>>=#. $eanwhile, the C'6C has in"ested ,4>> million in technolo y to use Cene;uela1s Jrimulsion fuel in Chinese power plants. ,his exemplifies *ene+ elas desire to -rea! a#a" from the U%S% Murin a "isit to China in .>>/, 6resident Chave+ said shifting exports to China #o ld help end dependenc" on sales to the United States
:ra;il that China went after oil. (7ohnson, .>>H#.
Chinese energ" insec rit" ca ses Asia #ar

.randen- rg , 4/.//$811 (Colonel 7ames A. O Gnited States Air Force, China1s %ner y &nsecurity and the South China Sea Mispute, GSA<C Strate y +esearch 6ro@ect, p. D0S# &n .>->, China reasserted o#nership to nearly 3> percent of the South China Sea, s pplementing its claims to the Spratl" and 4aracel ;slands% 6or China and its nei h)ors, territorial o#nership is integral to state sovereignt" and sec rit". Fowe"er, o"erlappin %%Ts, disputes o"er ownership of the Spratly and 6aracel &slands, and Chinas mercantilist approach to sec ring reso rces stand to raise the energ" sec rit" sta!es of interested parties incl ding the US.-D Feelin s of insecurity of those
with competin interests in either the %%T or the Spratly or 6aracel &slands could pro"e challen in especially if China e9pands its offshore production of oil/natural as and e9tends its control o"er the "essels or pipelines that deli"er them "ia the South China Sea.
Experts s ggest energ" shortages provide the necessar" catal"st for arms races2 n clear proliferation2 and other forms of insta-ilit"K in essence, greater energ" insec rit" e: ates to the greater
pro-a-ilit" of geopolitical rivalr".-S Bi*e the GS, as China )ecomes more dependent on oil
imports, its a)ility to ensure access to ener y at an afforda)le price )ecomes e"en more critical and could pro"e difficult i"en increasin lo)al mar*et uncertainty. Gltimately, Chinas dependence on imports
co ld lead to a vicio s c"cle as it str ggles to find #a"s to mitigate ris!s and protect its investments in order to offset its insec rit".-3 8i"en lo)al
dependence on China1s economy and the potential impact of shrin*in ener y supplies, this warrants special consideration in the eo0political realm.
>oes n clear
Cirincione $888 (7oseph, Mirector of the 'on06roliferation 6ro@ect O C%&6, Forei n 6olicy, 40.., Be9is#
than anywhere else in the world. ?he )loc*s would fall Luic*est and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already )uildin more Luic*ly
&f a nuclear -rea!o t ta*es place in Asia, then the international arms control agreements that ha"e )een painsta*in ly ne otiated o"er the past /> years will crum)le. $oreo"er, the Gnited States could find itself em)roiled in its fourth war on the
Asian continent in si9 decades00a costly re)u*e to those who see* the safety of Fortress America )y hidin )ehind national missile defenses. Consider what is already happenin :
'orth (orea continues to play uessin ames with its nuclear and missile pro rams2 South (orea wants its own missiles to match 6yon yan 's2 ;ndia and 4a!istan shoot across )orders while runnin a slow0motion nuclear arms race2 China moderni;es its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with ?aiwan and the Gnited States2 7apan's "ice defense minister is forced to resi n after e9tollin the )enefits of nuclear weapons2 and +ussia00whose Far %ast nuclear deployments alone ma*e it the lar est Asian nuclear power00 stru les to maintain territorial coherence. Fi"e of these states ha"e nuclear weapons2 the others are capa)le of constructin them. Bi*e neutrons firin from a split atom, one nation's actions can tri er reactions throu hout the re ion, which in turn, stimulate additional actions. ?hese nations form an interloc*in Asian nuclear reaction chain that "i)rates dan erously with each new de"elopment. &f the freLuency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase, critical decisions ta*en )y any one of these o"ernments could cascade into the second great #ave of nuclear0weapon proliferation, )rin in re ional and glo-al economic and political insta-ilit" and, perhaps, the first com)at se of a n clear #eapon since -=/H.
Ext China <il ;DL

China ta!ing advantage of lo# U%S% commitment no# !e" to energ" sec rit" 6orero 8F
N7uan, 'ew Eor* ?imes, China's oil diplomacy lures Batin America, 4/./>H, http://www.nytimes.com/.>>H/>4/>-/)usiness/world)usiness/>-iht0oil.htmlR pa ewanted\allV!r\>P Latin America is -ecoming a rich destination in ChinaMs glo-al : est for energ", with the Chinese si nin accords with Cene;uela, in"estin in lar ely untapped mar*ets li*e 6eru and e9plorin possi)ilities in :oli"ia and Colom)ia. China's si hts are focused mostly on Cene;uela, which ships more than D> percent of its crude oil to the Gnited States. &ith h ge oil reserves and a president who says that his country needs to di"ersify its ener y )usiness, *ene+ ela has emerged as an o-vio s contender for :ei@in 's attention. Cice 6resident Ten Ain hon of China, accompanied )y a
dele ation of -.H officials and )usinessmen, si ned -= cooperation a reements with the Cene;uelan leader, Fu o Cha"e;, in Caracas late in 7anuary. ?he a reements included lon 0ran e plans for Chinese sta*es in oil and as fields that are now mostly considered mar inal )ut which could )ecome "alua)le with )i in"estments. Mespite tensions )etween Cha"e; and the :ush administration, Cene;uela remains a ma@or source for American oil companies, one of four main pro"iders of imported crude oil to the Gnited States. Analysts and Cene;uelan o"ernment officials say that tie will not )e se"ered, as Cene;uela is a relati"ely short tan*er trip from the Gnited States. Y?he Gnited States should not )e concerned,Y +afael +amire;, Cene;uela's ener y minister, said in an inter"iew. Y?his e9pansion in no way means that we will )e withdrawin from the 'orth American mar*et for political reasons.Y Still,
ChinaMs voracio s econom" is an attractive mar!et for Cene;uela and other So th American energ" prod cers% O?he Chinese are enterin without political e9pectations or demands,Y said +o er ?issot, an analyst who e"aluates political and economic ris*s in leadin oil0producin countries for 6FC %ner y 8roup in <ashin ton. O,he" / st sa"2 M;Mm coming here to invest,' and the" can invest -illions of dollars. And o)"iously, as a
country with )illions to in"est, they are ta*en "ery seriously.Y China's entry is worrisome to some American ener y officials, especially )ecause the Gnited States is )ecomin more dependent on forei n oil at a time when forei n reser"es remain ti ht. &t was fear of supply shorta es that pushed a )arrel of oil to ,HH in Jcto)er, dri"in up retail prices and hurtin economies. Jn ?uesday, crude oil for April deli"ery was at ,H-.D= a )arrel in premar*et tradin on the 'ew Eor* $ercantile %9chan e. ?he G.S. Senate Forei n +elations Committee, headed )y +ichard Bu ar, +epu)lican of &ndiana, recently as*ed the 8o"ernment Accounta)ility Jffice to e9amine contin ency plans should Cene;uelan oil stop flowin . senior committee aide said,
Chinese interest in Cene;uela, a nderlined &ashingtonMs lac! of attention to Latin America% YFor years and years, the hemisphere has -een a lo# priorit" for the U%S%2 and the Chinese are ta*in ad"anta e of it2O the aide said, spea*in on condition of anonymity. Y,he"Mre ta!ing advantage of the fact that we don't care as much as we should a)out Batin America.Y China, the world's second0lar est consumer of oil, is already a leading competitor to the Gnited States in its glo-al search for oil2 as and minerals 0 nota)ly in Central Asia, the $iddle %ast and Africa. China accounted for /> percent of
lo)al rowth in oil demand in the last four years, accordin to the G.S. %ner y Mepartment, and its consumption in .> years is pro@ected to rise to -..3 million )arrels a day from H.HD million )arrels now. ?he Gnited States now uses .>./ million )arrels a day, nearly -. million of them imported.
Chinese companies, which ha"e su)stantial o"ernment help, can dispense government aid to sec re deals2 ta*e ad"anta e of lower costs in China and draw on hefty credit lines from the o"ernment and Chinese financial institutions
to compete with G.S. and other ri"als. Y?hese companies tend to ma*e uneconomic )ids, use Chinese state )ilateral loans and financin , and spend wildly,Y Fran* Cerrastro, director and a senior fellow at the Center for Strate ic and &nternational Studies in <ashin ton, told the Senate %ner y Committee early in Fe)ruary. Y commercial ones.Y
Chinese in"estors pursue mar*et and strate ic o)@ecti"es , rather than China alread" operates t#o oil fields in Cene;uela. Gnder accords si ned in :ei@in in Mecem)er and in Caracas in 7anuary, it #o ld develop 1F declining fields in Tumano in eastern Cene;uela, )uy -.>,>>> )arrels of fuel oil a month and )uild a plant in Cene;uela to produce fuel for Chinese power plants. Energ" anal"sts sa" these deals, thou h mostly mar inal, sho# that China is #illing to #ade in slo#l"2 #ith larger am-itions in mind. Y,hese are steps "o have to ta!e to have a longer-term relationship,Y said Barry 8oldstein, president of the 6etroleum &ndustry +esearch Foundation in 'ew Eor*. Y&e donMt !no# eno gh a-o t #hether the" #ill lead to larger pro/ects2 - t m" sense is that the" #ill%O Gnder the a reements, Cene;uela has in"ited China to participate in promisin pro@ects li*e e9plorin for oil in the Jrinoco
)elt, which has one of the world's reat deposits of crude oil, and searchin for natural as offshore 0 where Cene;uela hopes to )e a world competitor. Analysts say that part of China's effort is to learn a)out Cene;uelan technolo y, particularly the wor*in s of its hea"y0oil refineries. $uch of the oil that will )e e9ploited in the future will )e tarli*e, reLuirin an intricate and e9pensi"e refinin process.
the Cene;uelans a ,S>> million credit line to )uild housin , in his oal of liftin his compatriots out of po"erty. Y&t's a country that permits you to et more out of a reements than @ust ener y accords,Y :ernardo Al"are;, Cene;uela's am)assador to the Gnited States, said of China. Cene;uela, with a "iew to e9ports to China, says it is e9plorin plans to re)uild a 6anamanian pipeline to pump crude oil to the 6acific. Another proposal would lead to the construction of a pipeline from Cene;uela to Colom)ia's 6acific ports. Cha"e; has promoted these plans in three "isits to China. &n the most recent, in Mecem)er, he un"eiled a statue of Simon :oli"ar in :ei@in . ?rade )etween the two countries could rise to ,4
;n ret rn2 China is offering aid that helps Chave+
)illion this year from ,-.. )illion, Cha"e; said. Y<e ha"e )een producin and e9portin oil for more than ->> years,Y Cha"e; told Chinese )usinessmen in Mecem)er. Y:ut these ha"e )een ->> years of domination )y the Gnited States. 'ow we are free, and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese
ch of Latin America has -ecome cr cial to its need for ra# materials and mar!ets2 with trade at ,4..3H )illion in the first -> months of .>>/, a)out H> percent more than in .>>4. $inin , analysts say, is amon China's priorities, whether it is oil in Cene;uela, tin in Chile or as in :oli"ia. Chinese involvement in Latin America is Ogro#ing -" leaps and -o nds2O said %duardo
fatherland.Y China, thou h, is not @ust interested in Cene;uela. $u 8amarra, director of the Batin America and Cari))ean Center at Florida &nternational Gni"ersity.
Chinese economic ties !e" to <il imports 6erchen 1$

N$att, +%S&M%'? SCFJBA+ CA+'%8&%0?S&'8FGA C%'?%+ FJ+ 8BJ:AB 6JB&CE, China1s Batin American &nterests, //D/-., http://carne ieendowment.or /.>-./>//>D/china0s0latin0american0 interests/aSa"P China-Latin America relations, especially economic ties, have -oomed in the last decade. :etween .>>> and .>-> China0Batin America trade expanded over 12F88 percent, and )etween .>>3 and .>-> alone China1s investment in the re ion expanded more than 1P8 percent. ?his )oom in economic relations has -een primarily driven -" strong Chinese demand for So th American mineral, a ricultural, and energ" reso rces li!e copper, iron ore, soy)eans, and oil. At the same time, Latin America has -ecome an important destination for increasin amounts of Chinese man fact red-good exports ran in from modems to motorcycles.
<hile there are other dimensions to the Batin America0China relationship, includin a history of Chinese immi ration to countries
the recent decade-long s rge in relations has -een primaril" driven -" trade and investment ties% ?hou h those ties have also underpinned rene#ed and strengthened diplomatic relations )etween China and countries throu hout the re ion, the main
li*e Cu)a and 6eru, )indin force remains economic rather than political or ideolo ical. ?his has fueled a mi9ture of risin hopes and an9ieties amon o"ernment and )usiness leaders in Batin America. ?he well
hopes ride on e"er0e9pandin trade and in"estment lin*s as as the possi-ilit" that China might prove to -e a positi"e alternative to lon 0 standin American economic and political po#er in the region. An9ieties are rooted in concerns that
the re ion1s ties to China repeat dysfunctional historical patterns of commodity dependence and a hollowin out of local industry in the face of Chinese manufacturin and e9port prowess.
,he main -eneficiaries of the )oom in economic
relations have -een a small num)er of commodit"-rich So th American co ntries. &n particular, in recent years China has )ecome the num)er0one tradin partner (includin e9ports and imports# for :ra;il, Chile, and 6eru and the num)er0two tradin partner for Ar entina. <ithin the last two years China has also Luic*ly leapt to )ecome the num)er0one source of forei n direct in"estment in :ra;il and 6eru. &n order to further solidify trade ties to *ey 6acific coast tradin partners, China has also si ned free trade a reements with Chile, 6eru, and more recently Costa +ica. At the same time 2
China
has made significant energ" deals2 for oil in partic lar, with countries li*e Cene;uela, %cuador, and :ra;il. Some Batin American leaders have reached o t to China in an effort to develop more extensive political ties. Beft0leanin political leaders from Cu)a and Cene;uela to %cuador
and :oli"ia ha"e all emphasi;ed the importance of shared socialist "alues with China, e"en if China has )een careful to downplay the ideolo ical aspects of these relationships. China has, howe"er, -een eager to cooperate with its fellow :+&C mem)er, :ra;il, in leadin multilateral calls for re"isions to the international financial system in the wa*e of the .>>3O>= financial crisis. Fope remains that
China #ill contin e to explore increased investment
opport nities
in $e9ico (and also possi)ly in 6anama and Colom)ia, with whom the Gnited States recently si ned free trade a reements# in order to le"era e the )enefits of pro9imity to 'orth American e9port mar*ets. As the second0lar est economy in Batin America, thus far $e9ico has )een a *ey countere9ample to the South American trend of )oomin commodity e9ports to China. &nstead, the $e9ican economy has )een challen ed not only )y a ne ati"e trade )alance with China )ut also )y increased Chinese competition for e9ports to *ey 'orth American mar*ets.
Latin American oil !e" to Chinese energ" sec rit" Iiaoxia FDE (<an Wiao9ia, economic o)ser"er, &' A$%+&CA'S :AC(EA+M: CF&'A'S +&S&'8 &'FBG%'C% &'
BA?&' A$%+&CA, <orldcrunch, H/D/.>-4, http://www.worldcrunch.com/china0..>/in0america0>4=0s0)ac*yard0china0 >4=0s0risin 0influence0in0latin0america/forei n0policy0trade0economy0in"estments0ener y/c=s--D/S/#
&nitially, China1s acti"ities in Batin America were limited to the diplomatic le"el. :y pro"idin funds and assistin in infrastructure constructions, China mana ed to interrupt diplomatic ties )etween poor Batin countries and ?aiwan.
Since then2 #ith ChinaMs economic -oom2 the s ppl" of energ" and reso rces has grad all" -ecome a pro-lem that plag es China -- and its exchanges #ith Latin America th s are endo#ed #ith real s -stantive p rpose%) Among the n mero s needs of China2 the demand for oil has al#a"s -een the most po#erf l driving force% &n the past 4> years, China has cons med one-third of the #orldMs ne# oil prod ction and -ecome the #orldMs second-largest oil importer% 5ore than half of ChinaMs oil demand depends on imports2 #hich increases the insta-ilit" of its energ" sec ri ty. Mi"ersification is ine"ita)le. &n this conte9t, Latin America and its h ge reserves and prod ction capacit" nat rall" -ecame a destination for China%
Latin America is critical to the Chinese goal of energ" sec rit" 'ong-o 1$
(Sun Fon )o is associate professor at the &nstitute 5 of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of China1s Academy 5 of Social Sciences, ?he dra on1s oil politics in Batin America, &&AS, <inter .>-., http://www.iias.nl/sites/default/files/&&AS!'BD.!4>.pdf# ?he China0Batin American relationship has 5 numerous strate ic implications in the current 5 international political and economic power 5 transformation, where)y the world1s economic 5 centre of ra"ity is radually shiftin towards 5 the emer in economies. 4artic larl"2 the ) energ"-related ties -et#een
China and Latin ) America have gone thro gh great developments #ithin the oil and gas intra-ind str" ) colla-orations2 incl ding cr de oil trade2 ) investments2 loans-for-oil2 technical e: ipment p rchases2 mergers and ac: isitions2 ) etc% &itho t a do -t2 the Sino-Latin American ) energ" cooperation is a significant aspect of ) the emerging ne# energ" order c rrentl" ) #itnessed in the &estern 'emisphere% CF&'A1S 6artner Countries in this
re ion include Cene;uela, 5 :ra;il, %cuador, $e9ico, Cu)a, Costa rica, 6eru, Ar entina and 5 Colum)ia, with the first three of those countries in"ol"ed in 5 nearly 3>[ of the Chinese oil0lin*ed pro@ects. 6olitically, China1s 5 a)o"e0 mentioned partners ran e widely from the left to the 5 ri ht of the spectrum. <ith respect to their style of strate y, 5 Chinese oil companies in Batin America are often descri)ed )y 5 media and scholars as a ressi"e, ris*0lo"in and opportunistic.5 Chinese oil companies made opport ne se of three significant
occ rrences in the Latin American co ntries CLACG( the ) open h"drocar-on ind str" and privati+ation in the 1HH8s2 ) the nationali+ation -" left#ing governments C$88A-$88@G2 ) and the international financial crisis (.>>30.>--#. &n
-==4, 5 C'6C, one of China1s national oil companies, won e9ploration 5 ri hts in 6eru2 it pro"ed to )e a milestone for China1s ener y 5 cooperation with BAC. ;n addition to a large n m-er of ) loan-for-oil
deals #ith *ene+ ela2 .ra+il and Ec ador2 in $8182 ) thirteen ne# -ig deals #ere made -" Chinese oil companies ) in LAC2 incl ding the mergers and ac: isitions of the regional ) assets of international oil companies s ch as repsol2 4an ) American Energ"2 and <ccidental 4etrole m.5 BAC in itself cannot
safe uard China1s ener y security. 5 Fowe"er, China re ards BAC as a potential re ion to di"ersify 5 her crude oil import. According to the .4 Statistical revie# ) of &orld Energ"2 China
imported $F%A million tons of cr de ) oil from LAC in $8182 acco nting for P%E percent of Chinese glo-al imports and 18 percent of Latin American #orld exports% ,a!ing into consideration the ne# offshore discoveries ) in .ra+il and the h ge proven reserves in *ene+ ela2 #itho t ) a do -t2 the t#o co ntries co ld -e vie#ed in the f t re as ) Chinas and ;ndias s staina-le strategic cr de oil s ppliers% ) ;t sho ld -e emphasi+ed that the vol me of oil trade -et#een ) Asian co ntries and LAC has -een steadil" rising% From .>>/ 5 to .>->, BAC1s oil e9port to Asia increased from /.43 percent 5 to -3.3> percent of its total lo)al e9port.5 China1s Q8oin 8lo)al Strate y15 ,he g arantee of energ" sec rit"2 and the Chinese national ) 9>oing >lo-al Strateg"2 #hich enco rages national enterprises ) to invest overseas2 are f ndamental
factors highl" integrated ) into Chinese polic" to#ards Latin America% A ne# trend ) emerging from this sit ation is the increased cooperation ) -et#een financial organi+ations and national oil companies% ) ,heir commercial patterns in LAC can -e s mmed p #ith ) seven !e" fields of cooperation( 1G cr de oil trade2 $G technical ) services2 AG /oint development2 KG infrastr ct re-- ilding ) participation2 FG loan-for-oil2 EG heav" technical e: ipment ) transactions2 @G -io-f els technolog" /oint research%
Ext China &ar

Energ" is the core iss e of island disp tes
Jac!son, -/4-/$81A (Allison, ?he Sen*a*u &slands Mispute &s Forcin 7apan to +ethin* Fow &t ?rades <ith the <orld, :usiness &nsider, p. http://www.)usinessinsider.com/diaoyu0dispute0hurts0sino0@apanese0trade0.>-40-# 'e"ertheless, the disp te over the islands #ill contin e to ca se political and economic headaches for China and Japan2 #ith neither acting to def se the tensions% A-e #arned recently that there #as 0no room for negotiations1 #ith China o"er the islands. $y resol"e to defend our waters and territories has not chan ed at all, the haw*ish A)e
said, accordin to ?he Maily Eomiuri, shortly after announcin the first increase in 7apanese defense spendin in more than a decade. ,he Chinese also have ta!en a hard line. Bast wee*, an editorial in the state0controlled 8lo)al ?imes warned its readers to prepare for the worst and said the Chinese military shouldn1t )e hesitant to ta*e military re"en e in response to 7apanese pro"ocations. A mixt re of historical
animosit"2 self-serving politics and energ" sec rit" is f eling the disp te.
As the GS increases its strate ic en a ement in the Asia06acific re ion, China is ea er to use the spat with 7apan as an opportunity to show off its stren th and )oost its influence in the re ion. :ut energ" and the control
of potentially lar e h"drocar-on reserves are at the core of the disp te #hich ens res lasting tensions -et#een Asias economic giants% 0,he" #ill give "o a long2 historical explanation of their sovereignt" claim% . t the idea that there are vast reso rces nder the East China Sea @ust off their coast is a tremendo s motivation for the intensit" of their territorial disp te, Sheila Smith2 a senior fello# at the Council on Forei n +elations in <ashin ton, M.C, told National >eographic late last year.
,he" escalate%
A slin, -/.3/$81A ($ichael O scholar at the American %nterprise &nstitute, ?he Sino0 7apanese Standoff, 'ational +e"iew, p. http://www.nationalre"iew.com/articles/4433H./sinondash@apanese0standoff0 michael0auslinRp \.#
?his SinoO7apanese standoff also is a pro)lem for the Gnited States, which has a defense treaty with ?o*yo and is pled ed to come to the aid of 7apanese forces under attac*. ?here are also mechanisms for G.S.O7apanese consultations durin a crisis, and if ?o*yo reLuests such military tal*s, <ashin ton would )e forced into a difficult spot, since :ei@in would undou)tedly percei"e the holdin of such tal*s as a serious pro"ocation. ?he J)ama administration has so far ta*en pains to stay neutral in the dispute2 despite its rhetoric of pi"otin to the 6acific, it has ur ed )oth sides to resol"e the issue peacefully. <ashin ton also has a"oided any stance on the so"erei nty of the Sen*a*us, supportin instead the status Luo of 7apanese administration of the islands. ?hat may no lon er suffice for 7apan, howe"er, since its o"ernment saw China1s ta*in to the air o"er the Sen*a*us as a si nificant escalation and proof that :ei@in is in no mind to )ac* down from its claims.
<ne does not have to -e an alarmist to
see real dangers in pla" here. As :ar)ara ?uchman showed in her classic ?he 8uns of Au ust, e"ents ha"e a way of ta*in on a life of their own (and one doesn1t need a Schlieffen 6lan to feel trapped into actin #. ,he enmit" -et#een Japan and China is deep and pervasiveW there is little good #ill to tr" and avert conflict. &ndeed, the people of -oth co ntries have a-"small" lo# perceptions of the other% Since the" are the t#o most advanced militaries in Asia2 an" tension-driven militar" /oc!e"ing -et#een them is inherentl" desta-ili+ing to the entire region. 6erhaps of e"en reater concern, neither government has shied a#a" from its hardline tactics over the Sen!a! s2 despite the fact that trade -et#een the t#o has dropped nearl" K percent since the crisis )e an in Septem)er. $ost worryin , if the two sides don1t a ree to return to the status Luo ante, there are onl" one or t#o more r ngs on the ladder of militar" escalation -efore someone has to )ac* down or decide to initiate hostilities when challen ed. &hoever does -ac! do#n #ill lose an enormo s amo nt of credi-ilit" in Asia2 and the possi-ilit" of ma/or domestic demonstrations in response. ,he prospect of an armed clash
-et#een Asias t#o largest co ntries is one that sho ld -ring -oth sides to their senses2 - t instead the t#o seem to -e mane vering themselves into a corner from #hich it #ill -e diffic lt to escape% <ne trigger-happ" or ner"ous pilot2 and Asia co ld face its gravest crisis perhaps since &orld &ar ;;.
;mpact ,ai#an
,ai#an ;ndependence 1NC

Chinese infl ence !e" to prevent ,ai#an independence Li 8@
NFe Bi, 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e, :oston %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP Latin America has -een a ma/or -attlegro nd of the 0foreign polic" #ar1 -et#een China and ,ai#an over international legitimac"2 recognition2 and stat s% Chinas : est to recover what it calls the pro"ince of ,ai#an is one of the top iss es on its foreign polic" agenda% &ts strate y a ainst ?aiwan has )een )oth )ilateral and lo)al. :ilaterally, China has sed a mi9 of economic diplomac" and military and political mo"es to !eep ,ai#an from claiming independence% 8lo)ally, Chinas strateg" has foc sed on developing an international nited front desi ned to marginali+e ,ai#an. Fearin ?aiwan1s push for international recognition #ill lead to its declaration of independence2 .ei/ing is determined to contain ,ai#an in e"ery corner of the world, especially in Central America and the Cari--ean2 the stronghold of ,ai#an%?aiwan
has .4 million people and well protected territory. Eet, of the Gnited 'ations1 -=4 mem)er states, only .4 reco ni;e ?aiwan as a so"erei n state.
<f the $A co ntries that recogni+e ,ai#an2 1$ are in Latin America and the Cari--ean% ?aiwan has )een de"otin enormous efforts to retain diplomatic reco nition. ;f these states were to s#itch recognition from ,aipei to .ei/ing, the dama e to ?aiwan1s political conZdence and its claims of legitimac" as a state #o ld -e seriously ndermined. Accordin to then0prime minister of ?aiwan Eu Shyi0*un in .>>., ?aiwan1s allies in Latin America and the Cari))ean have helped us a lot and therefore we consider this an area of maxim m diplomatic importance %1. Gnder such circumstances, the strategic competition -et#een China and ,ai#an has -een intensiBed in a region far a#a" from Asia% ,ai#an independence #ill spar! US-China N !e #ar Lo#ther2 staff reporter in &ashington D%C%2 $81A
C&illiam2 0?aiwan could spar* nuclear war: report ?aipei ?imes: Jnline: $ar -D, .>-4: http(DD###%taipeitimes%comDNe#sDtai#anDarchivesD$81AD8AD1ED$88AFF@$11G
,ai#an is the most li!el" potential crisis that co ld trigger a n clear #ar -et#een China and the US, a new academic report concludes.5 ,ai#an remains the single most pla si-le and dangero s so rce of tension and conflict -et#een the US and China, sa"s the /.0pa e report -" the <ashin ton0)ased Center for Strate ic and ;nternational Studies (CS;S#.5 6repared )y the CS&S1 6ro@ect on 'uclear &ssues and resultin from a year0lon study, the report emphasi;es that .ei/ing contin es to -e set on a polic" to prevent ,ai#ans independence, while at the same time the US maintains the capa-ilit" to come to ,ai#ans defense.5 Altho gh tensions across the ?aiwan Strait have s -sided since )oth ?aipei and :ei@in em)raced a policy of en a ement in .>>3, th e sit ation remains com- sti-le2 complicated -" rapidl" diverging crossstrait militar" capa-ilities and persistent political disagreements2 the report
says.5 &n a footnote, it Luotes senior fellow at the GS Council on Forei n +elations +ichard :etts descri)in ?aiwan as the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia .5 ?he report also Luotes :etts as sayin that neither :ei@in nor <ashin ton can fully control de"elopments that mi ht i nite a ?aiwan crisis. 5 ,his
is a classic recipe for s rprise2 miscalc lation and ncontrolled escalation, :etts wrote in a separate study of his own.5 ?he CS&S study says: For the foreseea)le future ,ai#an is the contingenc" in #hich n clear #eapons #o ld most li!el"
-ecome a ma/or factor, )ecause the fate of the island is intert#ined -oth #ith the legitimac" of the Chinese Comm nist 4art" and the relia-ilit" of US defense commitments in the Asia06acific re ion.
>oes glo-al and n clear

' n!ovic H (Bee 7, American $ilitary Gni"ersity, ?he Chinese0?aiwanese Conflict: 6ossi)le Futures of a Confrontation )etween China, ?aiwan and the Gnited States of America, http://www.lamp0method.or /eCommons/ Fun*o"ic.pdf# A war )etween China, ?aiwan and the G nited States has the potential to escalate into a n clear conflict and a third #orld #ar, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could )e affected )y such a conflict, includin 7apan, )oth (oreas, +ussia, Australia, &ndia and 8reat :ritain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the lo)al economy, in which the Gnited States and China are the two most dominant mem)ers. &f China were a)le to successfully anne9 ?aiwan, the
possi)ility e9ists that they could then plan to attac* 7apan and )e in a policy of a and e"en into &ndia, which
ressi"e e9pansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia, as well as the 6acific
could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces to contain the threat. &n any case, if China and the Gnited States en a e in a full0 scale conflict, there are few countries in the world that will not )e economically and/or militarily affected )y it. Fowe"er, China, ?aiwan and Gnited States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine its e"entual
outcome, therefore, other countries will not )e considered in this study.
,ai#an ;ndependence $NC
,ai#an independence ca ses n clear #ar- China #o ld -e forced to retaliate #hich forces U%S% intervention and n clear escalation thats =ardle" and Bowther Dra#s in ever"one- ca ses extinction
Straits ,imes2 $888
Straits ?imes, D0.H0.>>>, 'o one ains in war o"er ?aiwan, ln ?F% hi h0intensity scenario postulates
a cross0strait war escalatin into a full0scale war )etween the GS
and China. &f <ashin
ton were to conclude that splittin China would )etter ser"e its national interests, then a full0scale war )ecomes
una"oida)le.Conflict on such a scale
0 :ei@in has already told the GS and 7apan pri"ately that it considers any country pro"idin )ases and lo istics support to any GS forces attac*in China as )elli erent parties open to its retaliation. &n the re ion, this means South (orea,
#o ld em-roil other co ntries far and near and 0horror of horrors raise the possi)ility of a nuclear war %
east Asia will )e set on fire. And the confla ration may not end there as opportunistic powers else#here ma" tr" to overt rn the existing #orld order% <ith the GS distracted, 3 ssia ma" see! to redefine E ropeMs political landscape. ?he )alance of power in the $iddle %ast may )e similarly upset )y the li*es of &raL. &n south Asia, hostilities )etween &ndia and 6a*istan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, co ld enter a ne# and dangero s phase% <ill a full0scale Sino0GS war lead to a nuclear warR Accordin to 8eneral
7apan, the 6hilippines and, to a lesser e9tent, Sin apore. &f China were to retaliate,
$atthew +id eway, commander of the GS %i hth Army which fou ht a ainst the Chinese in the (orean <ar, the GS had at the time thou ht of usin nuclear weapons a ainst China to sa"e the GS from military defeat. &n his )oo* ?he (orean <ar, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future GS forei n policy, 8en +id eway said that GS was confronted with two choices in (orea 0truce or a )roadened war, which could ha"e led to the use of nuclear weapons. &f the GS had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China lon )efore the latter acLuired a
there is little hope of winnin a #ar against China H> years later, short of usin nuclear weapons. ?he GS estimates that China possesses a)out .> nuclear warheads that can destro" ma@or American cities. :ei@in also seems prepared to o for the nuclear option %
similar capa)ility, 6an
A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that :ei@in was considerin a re"iew of its Ynon first useY principle re ardin nuclear weapons. $a@or08eneral
Than Lian
, president of the military0funded &nstitute for Strate ic Studies, told a atherin at the <oodrow <ilson &nternational Centre for
said leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country ris*ed dismem)erment as a res lt of foreign intervention% 8en +id eway said that should that come to pass, #e #o ld see the destr ction of civilisation . ?here would )e no "ictors in such a war. <hile the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over ,ai#an might seem inconceiva-le2 it cannot -e r led o t entirel"2 for China p ts sovereignt" a-ove ever"thing else. 8en +id eway recalled that the )i est mista*e the GS made durin the (orean <ar was to assess Chinese actions accordin to the American way of thin*in .
Scholars in <ashin ton that althou h the o"ernment still a)ided )y that principle, there were stron pressures from the military to drop it. Fe military
Ext Solves ;ndependence

Chinese economic infl ence !e" to prevent ,ai#an recognition Ellis 11
N+. %"an, Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity.Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America, -st Luarter .>--, http://www.ndu.edu/press/li)/ima es/@fL0 D>/7FAD>!3H0=-!%llis.pdfP government of ,ai#an represents an important iss e of 4olitical legitimac" and internal sec rit"% Currently, 1$ of the $A nations in the #orld that diplomaticall" recogni+e the government of ,ai#an are fo nd in Latin America and the Cari--ean. Althou h the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China does not pu)licly threaten to )loc* in"estment in or loans to countries that do not reco ni;e the 6+C, China repeatedl" emphasi+es the iss e in its p -lic diplomac" in the region , and ma!es such investments and mar*et access diffic lt for those co ntries that do not recogni+e it, #hile simultaneously n rt ring expectations regarding the opport nities that diplomatically recogni+ing the 43C co ld -ring. &hen Costa 3ica changed its diplomatic recognition from ?aiwan to the 6+C in $ay .>>S, for e9ample, it received an aid pac!age that included an ,34 million soccer stadium, the purchase of ,4>> million in o"ernment
Miplomatic +eco nition of ?aiwan. For the 6+C, the )onds, "arious hi hway, pu)lic wor*s, and aid pro@ects, and a ,- )illion @oint "enture to e9pand the country1s petroleum refinery, as well as 6+C aid in facilitatin access to Chinese mar*ets )y traditional Costa +ican products such as coffee. &n part,
s ch Chinese generosit" #as directed to#ard the other co ntries in the region that still recogni+ed ,ai#an in order to demonstrate the types of )enefits that could )e made a"aila)le if they too were to chan e their diplomatic posture.
;solation !e" to prevent independence Johnson 8F

NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies, a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies, at ?he Ferita e Foundation.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America, ->/.//>H, http://www.herita e.or /research/reports/.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP
Since the -=/= ci"il war2
,ai#an has -een separate from the 43C2 and the 43C vie#s ,ai#an as a Orenegade provinceO that m st -e re nified #ith the rest of China% 4art of .ei/ingMs plan to -ring it -ac! into the fold has -een to isolate ,ai#an diplomaticall"% &n the -=H>s, most of Latin America had diplomatic relations #ith ,ai#an. ?hen, Cu)a's Fidel Castro re ime esta)lished ties with China in -=D>. &n the -=S>s, Chile led a ma@or shift in fa"or of the 6+C. Currently 2 onl" $F co ntries accord ,ai#an diplomatic stat s2 and one-fo rth of them are in Latin America: Costa +ica, %l Sal"ador, 8uatemala, Fonduras, 'icara ua,
6anama, and 6ara uay. ?aiwan pays dearly for this reco nition, pro"idin de"elopment aid and disaster assistance to these states.
?e" to prevent independence Jiang $88@

NShi9ue 7ian , Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences?hree Factors in the +ecent Me"elopment of
Sino0Batin American +elations, %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP Latin America is also relevant for Chinas efforts to re nite ,ai#an #ith the motherland. ,o resolve the ,ai#an issue is one of the most important tas!s for the Chinese people. .ei/ing is #illing to achieve this re niBcation peacef ll", with utmost sincerity and reat effort, - t ,ai#an independence cannot -e tolerated. Currently, $A co ntries have 0diplomatic relations1 #ith ,ai#an , and 1$ of them are fo nd in Latin America. ?hey are 6ara uay, the only country in South America which
reco ni;es ?aiwan, si9 of the se"en Central American countries, and Z "e Cari))ean island nations (the Mominican +epu)lic, Faiti, Saint (itts and 'e"is, St. Bucia and Saint Cincent and the 8renadines#. ?he 6eople1s +epu)lic of China has esta)lished diplomatic relations with -D= countries around the world. &t is a mem)er of more than -4> international or ani;ations. :ut the a)o"e0 mentioned -. Latin American co ntries !eep a -lind e"e to this fact . ?hey i nore the resolutions passed )y the Gnited 'ations on the ?aiwan issue, )elittle themsel"es )y *eepin ties with a pro"ince of a so"erei n nation, and hurt the feelin s of the Chinese people.
Chinas infl ence and C -a and *ene+ ela is strong no#2 pressing against ,ai#an
+ory Carroll is currently the 8uardian1s GS west coast correspondent. Fis )oo* on Fu o ChU"e;, Comandante, was pu)lished in $arch .>-4, --0-=0 $88P N&nternational: China's influence: 6resident's Batin America tour cements :ei@in 's trade clout, ?he 8uardian (Bondon# 0 Final %dition, 6 .D, Be9is, s)ha P ChinaMs president, Fu 7intao, is leadin scores of Chinese )usiness people on a sweep throu h Batin America to reinforce .ei/ingMs gro#ing economic clo t in the region. Fu launched free trade tal*s on a "isit to Costa +ica, )efore flyin to a rapturous reception in Cu)a. ?his wee* he will also )e one of the stars at a 6acific rim summit of .- nations in 6eru. :y then, :ei@in 's dele ation will ha"e rown to D>> people, includin -. ministers. Y ChinaMs relations #ith Latin America and the Cari--ean have never -een so close,Y Fu told 6eru's %l Comercio newspaper. &n contrast to +ussia's politically char ed push into the re ion 0 which in"ol"es sellin arms and challen in GS influence 0 .ei/ingMs foc s is on agric lt re2 ra# materials and mar!ets for its exports. ChinaMs trade #ith Latin America has risen tenfold to Q18$-n CZEP-nG2 and it has toppled the US as Chile's main tradin partner since .>>>, althou h the GS remains the re ion's main economic partner, with ,HD>)n in trade last year. C -aMs state ne#s agenc" reported that ' signed almost a do+en agreements #ith C -a, includin plans to up rade infrastructure and )uy su ar and nic*el. China hopes to sign a free trade deal this wee* with 6eru to o)tain )etter access to its copper and iron deposits. ?here is already a ,...)n deal to e9tract Sm tonnes of copper from a sin le 6eru"ian pea*. &n :ra;il, the Chinese are ne otiatin to )uild a ,4)n steel mill with help from the :an* of China, which is to open a )ranch there ne9t year. China has also s n! -illions into oil exploration in %cuador, Colom)ia and *ene+ ela. China has #ooed several Latin America states a#a" from its rival2 ,ai#an% As a reward, Costa +ica is to recei"e a ,4>>m soft loan, help with )uildin a 4>,>>>0seat stadium and modernisin an oil refinery. &n a sym)olic step, China last month invested QAF8m in the ;nter-American Development .an!2 a signal that it #ants to -e a long-term pla"er in the region% As ChinaMs clo t gro#s2 that of the US d#indles. ?he economic slowdown is
e9pected to hit Batin American e9ports to the GS, as well as remittances from Batino mi rants. O,he realit" is that to some degree the fate of Latin America has -een deco pled from the US,Y Maniel %ric*son, of the &nter0American Mialo ue thin*tan*, told the Associated 6ress. YJr at least itMs not as tightl" ent#ined as it sed to -e%O
China is sing economic lin!s #ith the main idea of removing ,ai#an claims to independence C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t
3;C'A3D >% LU>A32 ;ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E;N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) .A3.A3A .<IE32 California .<. C<3?E32 ,ennessee) .;LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<;N<*;C'2 <hio) .A3AC? <.A5A2 ;llinois L;SA 5U3?<&S?;2 Alas!a) 3<.E3, 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J;5 De5;N,2 So th Carolina ) .ENJA5;N L% CA3D;N2 5ar"land J<'NN= ;SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.E3, 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*;D *;,,E32 Lo isiana) J;5 &E..2 *irginia J<'N .A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C';NAMS 6<3E;>N 4<L;C= AND ) [[S<6, 4<&E3MM ;N S<U,' A5E3;CA2) AS;A2 AND A63;CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www. po. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S.htm#
P2
JC%+C&%<5 China's rowin interest in Batin America and the Cari))ean 5 is a fairly new phenomenon that has de"eloped o"er the past 5 se"eral years. :e innin in April .>>- with 6resident 7ian 5 Temin's -40day tour of Batin America, a succession of senior 5 Chinese officials have visited Latin American co ntries to ) co rt regional governments2 #hile Latin American leaders also ) have -een fre: ent visitors in .ei/ing% ChinaMs primar" ) interest in the region appears to -e to gain greater access to ) needed reso rces--s ch as vario s ores2 so"-eans2 copper2 iron ) and steel2 and oil--thro gh increased trade and investment% ;t ) is also li!el" that .ei/ingMs additional goal is to isolate ) ,ai#an -" l ring the 1$ Latin American and Cari--ean nations ) still maintaining diplomatic relations #ith ,ai#an to shift ) their diplomatic recognition to China. <hile China's economic 5 lin*a es with Batin America ha"e rown, the G.S. ad"anta e of 5 eo raphical pro9imity means that the 6+C presence is li*ely to 5 remain dwarfed )y G.S. trade with and in"estment in the re ion. 5 $oreo"er, althou h many Batin American countries welcome 5 Chinese in"estment, some ha"e "iewed China as an economic 5 threat, and are concerned that )oth their domestic industries 5 and their G.S. e9port mar*ets will )e o"erwhelmed )y Chinese 5 competition. 'e"ertheless, some anal"sts maintain that ) .ei/ingMs gro#ing role in the region ma" have longer-term ) implications for U%S% regional interests and infl ence
Chinese Latin American infl ence s#itches co ntries diplomatic recognition of ,ai#an7m ltiple co ntries prove C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic
3;C'A3D >% LU>A32 ;ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E;N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) .A3.A3A .<IE32 California .<. C<3?E32 ,ennessee) .;LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<;N<*;C'2 <hio) .A3AC? <.A5A2 ;llinois L;SA
5U3?<&S?;2 Alas!a) 3<.E3, 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J;5 De5;N,2 So th Carolina ) .ENJA5;N L% CA3D;N2 5ar"land J<'NN= ;SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.E3, 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*;D *;,,E32 Lo isiana) J;5 &E..2 *irginia J<'N .A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C';NAMS 6<3E;>N 4<L;C= AND ) [[S<6, 4<&E3MM ;N S<U,' A5E3;CA2) AS;A2 AND A63;CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www. po. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S.htm#
P2
FJ+%&8' ASS&S?A'C%5 ?he e9act le"el of China's forei n assistance to Batin 5 America and the Cari))ean is uncertain, )ut reportedly the 5 re ion recei"es a)out ->[ of China's forei n aid worldwide, far 5 )ehind assistance that China reportedly pro"ides to Asia and 5 Africa.iH/i Aid to the region appears to foc s on -ilateral ) assistance rather than thro gh regional or m ltilateral ) instit tions2 #ith the o-/ectives of strengthening diplomatic ) relations and isolating ,ai#an%\FF\) 4artic larl" in the Cari--ean and Central America2 China ) has sed assistance in recent "ears as part of its chec!-oo! ) diplomac" to entice co ntries in the region to s#itch their ) diplomatic recognition from ,ai#an2 #hile a n m-er of co ntries ) in the region have -een adept at pla"ing the t#o co ntries ) against each other in order to maximi+e financial -enefits% As ) noted a-ove2 Chinese assistance to Dominica and >renada #as ) instr mental in those co ntries deciding to s#itch diplomatic ) recognition% Costa 3ica #as also r mored to have -een offered ) s -stantial assistance2 altho gh Costa 3ican officials maintain ) the prospect of increase trade and investment #as the primar" ) rationale for the s#itch%
Ext Empirics
Chinese infl ence in Latin America is !e" to eliminate ,ai#ans claims to independence7Costa 3ica proves ?opel and ?ra se 8@
(Ma"e (opel is +esearch Mirector and $i*e (rause is a Senior Fellow at the &ndependence &nstitute, ?he ?hreat From Sino0America, ?CS Maily, S/-D/>S, http://www.ideasinactiont".com/tcs!daily/.>>S/>S/the0threat0from0sino0 america.html#
&n 7une, Costa 3ica ended nearl" sixt" "ears of diplomatic relations #ith ,ai#an in order to esta-lish diplomatic relations #ith China% Not onl" a victor" in .ei/ingMs efforts to smother ,ai#anMs independence2 the Costa 3ican s#itch is f rther evidence of ChinaMs gro#ing infl ence in Latin America7a gro#ing threat to democrac" and to U%S% interests%) Anno ncing the diplomatic s#itch2 Costa 3ican president <scar Arias cited a desire to strengthen commercial ties and Oattract investmentO from China. Arias then than*ed ?aiwan for its Ysolidarity and co0operationY o"er the last si9ty years, notin that ?aiwan has )een Y"ery enerous.Y 5 :ut the ne9t day, Arias denounced ?aiwan for )ein Ystin y.Y So nding as tho gh he had ta!en emergenc" tal!ing points from .ei/ing2 Arias gr m-led2 OConsidering the fe# friends the" have2 the" donMt treat them ver" #ell%O Arias contin ed2 O&itho t a do -t2 #e #ill get more help from China%O) ;n tr th2 ,ai#an is : ite genero s for a small nation2 - t a nation #ith a pop lation of $1 million canMt offer the same economic incentives as a nation #ith a pop lation of 1%A -illion and the #orldMs second-largest econom"%) China insists that the price of trade relations is the severance of diplomatic relations #ith independent ,ai#an. A .>>H Ferita e Foundation report warned that YChina has la nched a ma/or diplomatic offensive in Central America and the Cari--ean to stamp o t ,ai#anMs diplomatic legitimac" in the region and s pplant ,ai#anMs infl ence among these "o ng democracies #ith its o#n%O ,he report o-served that China has -een Otranslating its economic s ccess -and its search for reso rces to f el its economic gro#th 7into greater infl ence in Latin America and the Cari--ean
A$( Economic ;nfl ence Not ?e"

Economic infl ence !e" prevents ,ai#an competition Li 8@
NFe Bi, 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e, :oston %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP Chinas gro#ing involvement co ld have serio s political and military implications. At present, the most important dimension in the relations )etween China and Batin America is no dou)t economic . China #ill contin e leveraging its economic clo t in the re ion to s pport its political preferences, pressing co ntries to fall in line regarding its top forei n policy priority: its claims over ,ai#an. J"er the lon run, d e to Chinas gro#ing economic might and soft po#er2 as well as the chan in dynamics of Batin American domestic politics 2 it might -ecome increasingl" difBc lt for ,ai#an to compete #ith the 43C in Latin America.
&n the future,
China
ses an a- ndant trade relationship #ith Latin American co ntries to s ppress ,ai#an2 - t China #ill #ithdra# if American infl ence is flexed ,he &ashington ,imes, H04>0$88E NChina in the <est, the <ashin ton
?imes, %ditorials, 6A-D, Be9is, s)ha P &n the 6enta on's .>>D report to Con ress on China's military power, released last wee*, the 4entagon notes with concern in addition to the a ressi"e )uildup, increasin ly menacin posture toward ?aiwan and a continued lac* of transparency that the 43CMs dealings #ith *ene+ ela2 C -a and several African nations are O nderc tting international efforts to infl ence those states%O China is doin in Batin America what it is doin in Africa and the $iddle %ast: p rs ing ra# materials and nat ral reso rces2 partic larl" energ" reso rces, with a narrow0minded mercantilist dri"e. China would consider it an added )onus if, in the co rse of proc ring the reso rces it needs to sustain its economic rowth2 it can also chip a#a" at some of the diplomatic s pport for ,ai#an in a region #here several co ntries recogni+e the a tonom" of the island% &ith C -a2 China shares a general ideological and revol tionar" !inship2 - t cementing the relationship no# is ChinaMs need for ra# materials , especially nic*el. ;n *ene+ ela2 the 43CMs interests center aro nd oil and gas reserves. ?o this point, China has -een caref l to avoid -eing dragged into Cene;uelan 6resident Fu o Chave+Ms ver-al -arrage against the United States. ?he Chinese Yha"e a way to ma*e it clear to Cene;uela that they don't want it playin the China card,Y said ?homas A. Shannon 7r., assistant secretary of state for <estern Femisphere affairs, durin a recent meetin with editors and reporters at ?he <ashin ton ?imes. Y,he" tell s that the" are not interested in political or militar" advent res,Y $r. Shannon noted, )ut the penta on report raises the Luestion of Ywhether or not arms sales are used to facilitate accessY to ener y resources in Cene;uela. Such transactions would undermine G.S. policy toward Cene;uela, a country that the Gnited States recently )anned arm sales to
after the State Mepartment desi nated it as not fully cooperatin with efforts a ainst terrorism.
A$( =o
;solation Evidence is <ld

sed to isolate ,ai#an
Economic po#er is -eing Cohen 1$
N?re"or, +esearch Associate at the Council on Femispheric Affairs, and the former Batin America %ditor at Fair J)ser"er., China Comes to Batin America, -./H/-., http://www.fairo)ser"er.com/4D>theme/china0comes0latin0americaP China has -ro ght cheaper imports, a more diverse clientel of trading partners and a
si nificant amount of e9tra capital. Fowe"er, many lament the practices of Chinese state corporations for )uyin up land, payin )elow industry wa es and deepenin Batin America1s dependence on the e9port of natural resources.
6rom a practical
perspective2 China seems li!e a great deal% Chinese lenders are much more lenient in their standards, providing Latin American states #ith the immediate captial necessar" to develop their infrastr ct re . &n .>-> alone, China ranted Batin American countries
,4S)n in low interest loans as a form of economic assistence O outnum)erin contri)utions from the <orld :an*, the &nter0American
;n exchange for resource consesions from Latin America2 the Chinese have financed new hi hways, raillines, and irri ation systems in these co ntries. Fowe"er, these loans are e9tremely concetrated in a handful of countries and sectors. $ore than =>[ went to
Me"elopment :an*, and the GS &mport0%9port :an* com)ined. Cene;uela, :ra;il, Ar entina and %cuador, and most were in"ested in impro"ements in minin and transportation infrastructure. Bi*ewise, =>[ of all forei n direct in"estment (FM&# was directed toward the e9tracti"e industries. %ssentially,
China has mastered the use of aid and in"estment to facilitate resource e9ploitation, reLuirin e9clusi"e access to certain resources in e9chan e for loan interest loans. Miplomatically, China has -een less concerned with underminin the influence of the Gnited States in Batin America and more foc sed on gaining recognition as the tr e China, in its ongoing rivalr" #ith ,ai#an. As Fe Bi, a scholar on Sino0Batin American relations pointed out, .ei/ing is determined to contain ,ai#an in ever" corner of the #orld2 especiall" in Central America and the Cari--ean2 the stronghold of ,ai#an%1 &ndeed, twel"e of the twenty0three countries that still reco ni;e ?aiwan as the le itimate
o"ernment of China are located in Central America and the Cari))ean.
A$( Latin America Not ?e"

Latin America is the !e" -attlegro nd for diplomatic recognition Eri!son and Chen 8@
NManiel 6. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G.S. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue. Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of .>>D., China, ?aiwan, and the :attle for Batin America, .>>S, http://ww.thedialo ue.or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.>(.#.pdfP &hile increasing economic and political ties -et#een China and Latin America have attracted si nificant attention from G.S. policyma*ers in the past few years, the extent to #hich .ei/ings foreign polic" is shaped -" its desire to isolate ,ai#an internationall" is often overloo!ed. Eet, this cr cial dimension of Chinese foreign polic" is indispensa-le to a f ll nderstanding of Chinas rising infl ence in the lo)al system, and its possi)le repercussions for G.S. national interests. ?oday, in some of the most remote corners of the world, a fierce contest for diplomatic recognition and political infl ence is -eing fo ght -et#een ,ai#an and the 43C. ;n partic lar2 Latin America has emerged as the cr cial -attlegro nd #here a do+en str ggling nations, mainl" in Central America and the Cari))ean, have -ecome ensnared in the cross-strait disp te% ,he strategicall" significant 0s#ing states1 among them face gro#ing press res to a-andon their lon standin relationships #ith ,ai#an in fa"or of cementin diplomatic ties with China. $eanwhile, officials in &ashington have yet to fully consider the possi)le implications for G.S. policy of this intensif"ing competition in their own )ac*yard.
Economic clo t is the !e" to isolation Latin America is critical Eri!son and Chen 8@
NManiel 6. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G.S. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue. Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of .>>D., China, ?aiwan, and the :attle for Batin America, .>>S, http://ww.thedialo ue.or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.>(.#.pdfP .ei/ing has p rs ed a s stained polic" of isolating ,ai#an diplomatically, most often -" promising large s ms of aid to the rapidl" d#indling ran!s of the latters allies. .ei/ing rigoro sl" promotes its 0<ne China1 polic", #hich means that non-recognition of the ,ai#anese government is a prere: isite for cond cting formal diplomatic relations with the 6+CIin effect forcing other governments to choose -et#een .ei/ing and ,aipei .
&n addition to its campai n of military intimidation, Currently there are only .H countries in the world that officially reco ni;e ?aiwan2 more than half of these are located in the <estern
Latin American co ntries involved in this geopolitical chess match ha"e little indi"idual clout, to ether they ma!e p the most significant gro p of states ca ght in the cross-strait t g-of-#ar. ?aiwan is
Femisphere.- Althou h each of the -4
reco ni;ed )y all se"en nations of the Central American isthmus, a pri;ed conti uous )loc that includes 8uatemala, :eli;e, 'icara ua, %l Sal"ador, Fonduras, Costa +ica, and 6anama. 'ot coincidentally, this roup also represents the stron est )ulwar* of support for the Gnited States in the <estern Femisphere. Se"eral of these countries sent troops to &raL as part of the G.S.0led coalition, and they ha"e dutifully partnered with <ashin ton in efforts to contain re ional ad"ersaries such as Cu)a1s Fidel Castro and Cene;uela1s Fu o ChU"e;. &n 'o"em)er .>>D, 6anama won a two0year term as the Batin American representati"e on the Gnited 'ations Security Council, )rea*in a len thy impasse )etween ChU"e;, who campai ned a ressi"ely for Cene;uela to assume the post, and the Gnited States, which )ac*ed 8uatemalaIan ally of ?aiwanIfor the "acant seat.
A$( U%S% ;nfl ence Doesnt Affect ;t

4erception of U%S% a-andonment !e" allo#s for Chinese fill in and ,ai#an isolation Eri!son and Chen 8@
NManiel 6. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G.S. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue. Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of .>>D., China, ?aiwan, and the :attle for Batin America, .>>S, http://ww.thedialo ue.or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.>(.#.pdfP
For their part2
Latin Americans are intrig ed -" the idea of China as a potential partner for trade and investment. As a rising s perpo#er without a colonial or imperialist history in the <estern Femisphere, China is in many ways more politicall" attractive than either the United States or the %uropean Gnion, especially for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasin ly anti0American and s*eptical of <estern intentions.-. 'e"ertheless, most analysts reco ni;e that Latin Americas em-race of ChinaIto the e9tent that this has actually occurredIis intimatel" lin!ed to its perception of neglect and disinterest from the United States . 'er"ousness
a)out China1s rise runs deeper amon the smaller economies such as those of Central America, which do not en@oy :ra;il1s or Ar entina1s a)undance in e9port commodities and are inclined to "iew the competition posed )y the endless supply of cheap Chinese la)or as a menace to their nascent manufacturin sectors. :ut e"en as China see*s to reassure the Gnited States that its
.ei/ing has -eg n enlisting regional po#ers li!e 5exico to aid its effort to #oo Central American diplomats. 6ressure is also
interests in South America are purely economic, )ein placed on 6ara uay )y Ar entina, :ra;il, and Chile, its partners in the South American Common $ar*et ($ercosur#, which places certain constraints on mem)er states1 )ilateral forei n policy prero ati"es. Mespite its a"owals to <ashin ton,
China appears to -e sing its economic might as a means to achieve the patently political o-/ective of stripping ,ai#an of its democratic allies in the &estern 'emisphere.
A$( Side &ith ,ai#an ;nevita-l"

Co ntries #ill see! to maximi+e economic gains #hoever has the most mone" #ins Eri!son and Chen 8@
NManiel 6. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G.S. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue. Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of .>>D., China, ?aiwan, and the :attle for Batin America, .>>S, http://ww.thedialo ue.or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.>(.#.pdfP his intensif"ing attention from China and ,ai#an is not necessarily n#elcome for Central America and the Cari--ean% &ndeed, most of these co ntries are str ggling to achieve successful integration into the glo-al econom", and the" are only too eager to -oth see! o t ne# partners and maximi+e the economic gains from e9istin relationships. :oth China and ,ai#an have sho#n interest in f nding infrastructure pro/ects that ha"e fallen out of fa"or amon <estern donors, and the Latin American landscape is -ecoming host to an archipelago of -ridges2 roads2 t nnels2 and stadi ms - ilt as -"-prod cts of the cross-strait competition . $oreo"er, diplomatic relations with one partner
? does not preclude sustained economic trade with the other2 many nations that reco ni;e China still do )usiness with ?aiwan, and the re"erse is also true.
Chinese economic advantage over ,ai#an means it #ill s#a" co ntries to not recogni+e ,ai#an as an independent nation in the s: o C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t
3;C'A3D >% LU>A32 ;ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E;N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) .A3.A3A .<IE32 California .<. C<3?E32 ,ennessee) .;LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<;N<*;C'2 <hio) .A3AC? <.A5A2 ;llinois L;SA 5U3?<&S?;2 Alas!a) 3<.E3, 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J;5 De5;N,2 So th Carolina ) .ENJA5;N L% CA3D;N2 5ar"land J<'NN= ;SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.E3, 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*;D *;,,E32 Lo isiana) J;5 &E..2 *irginia J<'N .A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C';NAMS 6<3E;>N 4<L;C= AND ) [[S<6, 4<&E3MM ;N S<U,' A5E3;CA2) AS;A2 AND A63;CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www. po. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S.htm#
P2
Anal"sis) 6or no#2 it appears that China and ,ai#an #ill contin e to ) -attle for diplomatic recognition2 sing the prospect of ) increased aid2 trade2 and investment to s#a" the decisions of ) the remaining do+en nations recogni+ing ,ai#an. Some o)ser"ers 5 maintain that *ey countries to watch include the Central 5 American countries of 'icara ua and 6anama, the Cari))ean 5 nation of the Mominican +epu)lic, and 6ara uay, the sole South 5 American nation that continues to reco ni;e ?aiwan.i4>i ;n the ) aftermath of Costa 3icaMs J ne $88@ decision to s#itch ) diplomatic partners2 Chinese officials predicted a domino ) effect in #hich other co ntries #o ld s#itch their recognition ) to China2 - t ,ai#an la nched an initiative in the region in ) order to co nter ChinaMs attempts to tempt additional co ntries ) to s#itch sides that appears to have -een s ccessf l in the ) short term%
Nevertheless2 over the long r n2 ChinaMs sheer ) economic si+e and po#er -odes #ell for its a-ilit" to entice ) ,ai#anMs remaining 1$ allies in Latin America and the Cari--ean ) to s#itch diplomatic sides%
Ext ;ndependence ]&ar

Ca ses #ar =ardle" F (7im Eardley and ?hom Shan*er (Staff <riters O 7im reported from
Than@ian and ?hom reported from <ashin ton.# Chinese 'a"y :uildup 8i"es 6enta on 'ew <orries. ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes. April 3, .>>H#
?he rowin friction )etween 7apan and China2 fueled )y risin nationalism in )oth countries, is @ust one of the
China passed a contro"ersial new MMantisecessionMM law authori;in a military attac* if top leaders in :ei@in )elie"e ,ai#an mo"es too far to#ard independence 00 a mo"e that )rou ht hundreds of thousands of people in ,ai#an out to protest ChinaMs most recent military white paper also alarmed American policy ma*ers )ecause it mentioned the Gnited States )y name for the first time since -==3. &t stated that the American presence in the re ion ''complicated security factors.'' China2 meanwhile, accused the Gnited States and 7apan of meddlin in a domestic Chinese matter when <ashin ton and ?o*yo recently issued a @oint security statement that listed peace in ,ai#an as a ''common strate ic o)@ecti"e.'' ''?he potential for a miscalc lation or an incident here has actually increased, @ust )ased on the rhetoric o"er the past si9 months to a year ,'' one American intelli ence analyst in
political de"elopments addin to tensions in %ast Asia. &n $arch, <ashin ton said.
;ndependence ca ses #ar C.S 8H

NC:S 'ews, China: ?aiwan &ndependence \ <ar, ./--/>=, http://www.c)snews.com/.->>0.>.!-D.0H3SH33.htmlP China ratcheted p the rhetoric against ,ai#an in remar*s pu)lished and threatened that Othe use of force may )ecome una"oida)leY if the islandMs leaders p rs e independence. ?he warnin from :ei@in came as ?aiwan prepares to elect a new leader in
&n unusually stron lan ua e, <ednesday $arch. 6resident Chen Shui0)ian, runnin for office a ain, has won o"er more "oters since he came up with plans for a new constitution and a law on referendums that could concei"a)ly lead to citi;ens "otin on ?aiwanese independence. <an Tai9i, a top mainland official who deals with the ?aiwan issue, said
c r-ing an" efforts the island ma!es to#ard independence is the ltimate goal of the mainland2 #hich #ill go to #ar if necessar"% Y;f the ,ai#an a thorities coll de #ith all splittist forces to openl" engage in proindependence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle2 the se of force ma" -ecome navoida-le ,Y <an was Luoted as sayin in China Maily, an %n lish0lan ua e newspaper with a wide forei n audience. S eparatists #ill Opa" a high cost if the" thin! #e #ill not se force2Y said <an , "ice minister of the ?aiwan Affairs Jffice of China's Ca)inet. Y,ai#an independence means #ar%O <an , who was spea*in at a seminar on cross0straits relations, also tempered his remar*s )y
addin that Ythe people of ?aiwan are our )rothers and sisters. <e are not willin to meet at the )attle round.Y ?he Chinese Ca)inet's ?aiwan Affairs Jffice in :ei@in had no immediate comment on <ednesday. ?he $ainland Affairs Council in ?aipei was silent hours after <an 's remar*s were pu)lished I a rare mo"e from a normally responsi"e o"ernment. :
ei/ing has long threatened the se of force against ,ai#an if it formall" declares independence, )ut rarely so dramatically. ?he two sides split
amid ci"il war in -=/=, and :ei@in insists that ?aiwan )elon s to China and must accept e"entual unification.
,ai#an independence triggers conflict and Chinese nationalism +o)ert ?agan, 6repared ?estimony )efore the Senate Finance Committee,
Su)@ect: ?rade with China and &ts &mplications for G.S. Forei n 6olicy, F%M%+AB '%<S S%+C&C%, $arch .4, $888, B'.
&n fact, trends which )e an to )e "isi)le in -=3=, and which ha"e persisted until the present, ha"e su ested that the present crop of Chinese leaders are more than e"er inclined to resist what they re ard as <estern entrapment. &n response to )oth internal and e9ternal pressures, they ha"e resorted to a common tactic of o"ernments in such perilous times. ?hey ha"e appealed to a fer"ent Chinese nationalism, )ased on resentment at their past century of su)@u ation at the hands of the <est and on a con"iction that their new economic and military power entitles them to a )i er place on the world sta e. $uch of the appeal to nationalism has )een a necessary antidote to the dan erous ideolo ical "acuum created )y economic reform. As domestic chan es ha"e Yundermined faith in communism,Y (enneth Bie)erthal points out, China's leaders ha"e turned to nationalism Yto ti hten discipline and maintain support .Y And there are si ns that this strate y wor*s, at least up to a point. $any ordinary Chinese seem to ha"e )een enuinely stirred up )y anti0American or anti07apanese campai ns in the Chinese media, and especially on specific issues li*e ?aiwan. As ?homas Christensen reports, Ycontinuin economic reforms and e9posure of the Chinese people to <estern ideas and international news (ha"e# cut e"er more deeply into CC6 le itimacy,Y and there are Yfew issues left that do not tri er de)ate and e9acer)ate tensions )etween the state and society. Eet in all sectors of politically aware Chinese society a consensus remains on the le itimacy of usin force, if necessary, to pre"ent ?aiwan's independence.Y
,ai#an independence riles the Dragon to attac!2 dra#s in the US

,he Ne# Atlantis $88K ('AA, Summer, p . ->S ?he Assassin1s $ace# As China's military power rows, so, too, does the dan er that :ei@in will ma*e a horri-le miscalc lation of America's commitment and capa)ility to defend its interests and the security of %ast Asia. ?he 6enta on analysis descri)es an increased le"el of discussion in China's military and political ran*s a)out the Ystrate ic window of opportunityY opened in %ast Asia with the G.S. military's commitments in &raL, Af hanistan, and, for the foreseea)le future, with the war on terrorism. And this past $ay, :ei@in deli"ered one of its most explicit threats so far to ?aipei's pro0independence leaders: %ither a)andon your Ydan erous l rch to#ard independenceY and su)mit to Chinese so"erei nty, or the YChinese people will crush (your# schemes firmly and thorou hly at any cost.Y Clearly, the Chinese dragon is crouchin in Ystrate ic am)i uityY no lon er . <ith China's rise as a military power loomin o"er the Asian06acific, and :ei@in stiflin the "oices of dissent e"erywhere under its immediate control, the window of opportunity for democracy in %ast Asia is shrin*in fast. ?o date, ?aiwan's commitment to its own defense has )een inadeLuate and unfocused, in part )ecause of its fear of Chinese retri)ution, )ut also )ecause of its strate ic reliance on the G.S. to repel any Chinese a ression. Gltimately, howe"er, if ?aiwan is to )ecome and remain a fully so"erei n democracy, it will ha"e to acLuire the means to defend itself. ?he Gnited States has )een reluctant to impress that point upon ?aipei, and only modest in its efforts to arm ?aiwan, out of concern for upsettin the already fra ile military )alance in the re ion. :ut the time has come for a serious consideration of the conseLuences and potential perils of American Ystrate ic am)i uityY in the ?aiwan Strait.
A$( ,ai#an #ont ris! it

,ai#an is #illing to ris! Chinese assa lt declaring independence ca ses massive air stri!es
=ang $88K NAndrew 'ien0M;u, teacher at the 'ational Sun Eat0sen Gni"ersity, 6eace and Security Across the ?aiwan Strait, ?he Alternati"es to 6eace: <ar Scenarios, 6al ra"e $acmillian 6u)lishin , 'ew Eor*, .>>/, p . -D=0-S>P ;n the 43CMs calc lation2 a war a ainst ,ai#an independence will reLuire massi"e air stri*es, special forces operations, and a na"al )loc*ade that will ena)le it to impose its will in an e9tremely short timeframe and with minimal losses. ?he 6+C has learned lessons of the recent GS campai ns in (uwait, :osnia, (oso"o, and Af hanistan. &ts planners )elie"e that it could rely on ad"anced technolo y, the deployment of small num)ers
of special operations troops supported )y amphi)ious landin forces, and an effecti"e )loc*ade to achie"e a satisfactory outcome. <hereas
on the ,ai#an side2 it *nows that the 6+C's attac* will open with de"astatin air attac*s , )ut they are confident that they can sur"i"e such attac*s and that the 6+C will as a result hesitate to launch a hi h0intensity conflict on the round. From the ?aiwanese point of "iew, without air superiority and effecti"e control of the sea, the 6BA cannot launch amphi)ious landin operations and sustain a round war on the island of ?aiwan. ?herefore, the ?aiwanese "iew is that if they can sur"i"e the initial attac*, the ad"anta e will shift to them.
A.: Meterrence
,his #ill escalate- Deterrence fails
Cir inia , &MA Analyst, Au ust , China1s 'ew Beadership and a ?aiwan Confrontation: &mplications for Meterrence, &nstitute for Mefense Analysis, http://www.dtic.mil/c i0)in/8et?+MocRAM\AMA/-3/S/VBocation\G.Vdoc\8et?+Moc.pdf &n contrast to the security strate ies of compara)le powers,
Monken
2003
China1s national security strate y has a nota)ly
internal focus, and its emphasis on protectin
the socialist system is a conspicuous one. ?he strate y does not promote a Chinese "ision for world de"elopment, or loo* to wield reat e9ternal, lo)al influence. China1s o)@ecti"es are reacti"e in nature. ?hey focus on resistin a ression, stoppin separatist mo"ements, a"ertin the su)"ersion of the o"ernin political system and leadership, and opposin e9pansion.-- ?his is not the defense
these are ar ua)ly the o)@ecti"es of a wea*, unsta)le re ime that is focused on its own permanence, and worried a)out its a)ility to sustain itself. ?he 6+C actions at the ne otiatin
doctrine of a risin , stron , sta)le, nationally unified state. &nstead, or human ri hts. ?his indicates that those
ta)le reflect this concern as well. China is far more fle9i)le on issues such as weapons proliferation and nuclear testin than it is on issues such as ?aiwan
issues that threaten internal o"ernance comprise the 6+C national defense policy1s chief o)@ecti"es.-. Coincidentally, it is on such matters that China1s leadership has pro"en
perception can, and does, dri"e 6+C policy, and will surely play a si nificant role in any 6+C deterrence eLuation.
"irtually immo"a)le. ?iananmen SLuare pro"ides a particularly poi nant e9ample of the premium that the 6+C places on the 6arty1s sur"i"a)ility )ecause it demonstrated that the CC6 will e"en use force a ainst its own people if it percei"es a threat to its power.-4 &n fact, throu hout the 6+C1s history, the 6arty has deployed military force more often a ainst domestic opposition than a ainst e9ternal a ression.-/ ?his record indicates the CC61s ris*
?his pattern carries potentially dan erous ramifications for a ?aiwan crisis scenario for two primary reasons. First, the outcome of a ?aiwan confrontation could desta)ili;e China1s economic, social, and political landscape, and the fallout could feasi)ly threaten CC6 re ime security . &n a country that )oasts a history of popular uprisin
and sudden re"olution spurred )y domestic insta)ility, a ?aiwanese )id for independence and su)seLuent conflict could pro"o*e dramatic uphea"al.-H Second, 6arty has used to esta)lish its le itimacy and accrue political capital: . &n the wa*e of ?iananmen SLuare and amidst the push for mar*et reform, the CC6 lost its ideolo ical footin , and has since em)raced nationalist and unifyin rhetoric in order to dri"e China1s moderni;ation efforts. ?he 6arty1s socialist mantra of the past no lon er applies to the current reality. &t now loo*s to nationalism to confer le itimacy on
?aiwan threatens CC6 re ime sur"i"al )ecause it em)odies those principles the Communist nationalism and nit"
?aiwan has )ecome such a principal sym)ol of Chinese nationalism and pride that its loss #o ld essentiall" constit te national h miliation. As a result, any of the nation1s leaders responsi)le for ?aiwan1s loss are li*ely to )e cast as lishi ;uiren, or the people condemned )y history-D O not a le acy the CC6 is an9ious to secure. ?his da nting prospect leaves the leadership little room to mane ver. ?hrou h its
6arty doctrine and )olster support for the political leadership. ?his draws the CC61s a)ility to handle a ?aiwan crisis into Luestion. nationalist rhetoric and underpinnin s, the 6arty may ha"e ine9trica)ly lin*ed its fate with that of ?aiwan. ?his concept is de"eloped fully later in this paper. &n sum,
the ?aiwan Luestion is closel" associated #ith Chinas most f ndamental national o-/ectives2 and has the potential to sha!e the fo ndation of the Comm nist regime% ,his indicates that deterring China #ill indeed -e diffic lt2 and flat o t impossi-le in certain cases. &n fact, China1s Mefense <hite 6aper
states that China will use force a ainst ?aiwan under any of three conditions: formal declaration of independence )y ?aipei2 acLuisition of nuclear weapons )y ?aiwan2 or a failure to return to the ne otiatin ta)le sooner or later. ?here seems little Luestion )ut that :ei@in would not )e deterred from the use of force in the first two circumstances. &n the third, deterrence could well )e e9pected to play a role in determinin if, when, and how China would use force to )rin ?aipei )ac* to the ne otiatin ta)le. ?he focus of this paper is not a discussion on deterrin China from initiatin military confrontation under any of these scenarios2 rather, it is on the role of deterrence once a conflict has )e un, for whate"er reason.
A$( ;nterdependence Chec!s
;nterdependence doesnt chec!

5on!en2 $88A
Cir inia $on*en, &MA Analyst, Au ust .>>4, China1s 'ew Beadership and a ?aiwan Confrontation: &mplications for Meterrence, &nstitute for Mefense Analysis, http://www.dtic.mil/c i0)in/8et?+MocRAM\AMA/-3/S/VBocation\G.Vdoc\8et?+Moc.pdf
the 6+C leadership feels that the s rvival of the CC4 regime in fact #o ld hang in the -alance of a ,ai#an confrontation% ,he CC4 has come to rel" heavil" on the Chinese peoples nationalist sensi-ilities to promote its own a enda and mas* its ideolo ical contradictions as it tries to reconcile an o)solete Communist doctrine and correspondin political system with its desire to de"elop a mar*et economy. ConseLuently, ?aiwan, which has come to represent the most fundamental of China1s national interests (territorial inte rity, state so"erei nty,
<ith these primary dri"ers in mind, the analysis concludes that future economic de"elopment and prosperity, and reunification of the motherland#, is em)lematic of the "ery principles for which the Communist 6arty purportedly stands. ?herefore,
should the CC6 lose ?aiwan, it would essentiall" delegitimi+e its self-proclaimed role as the 43Cs g arantor of national pride and prosperit"% ,he p -lic, already s*eptical of the CC6 and its moti"es, is not li*ely to tolerate such failure% S0 . ?he rise of the new CC6 leadership also has )rou ht potential fra mentation and power stru le to the political esta)lishment.
Jut oin CC6 Chairman and 6+C 6resident 7ian Temin retained his chairmanship of the Central $ilitary Commission (C$C# and essentially created multiple power centers within the 6+C leadership. Althou h Fu 7intao is the constitutionally reco ni;ed head of the 6arty and the state, 7ian Temin controls the military and, in the 6+C political tradition, he who holds the un holds the power. ConseLuently, should a ?aiwan crisis arise in the a)sence of a clearly delineated chain of command or formally reco ni;ed principal decision0ma*in authority, the leadership will most li*ely ta*e a harder0line
the decision to escalate will not )e the preferred choice. ?he Fourth 8eneration leadership lar ely comprises a roup of youn , pra matic, educated technocrats focused on China1s domestic economic de"elopment. ?heir top priority is facilitatin the 6+C1s moderni;ation and economic rowth to secure lon 0term domestic sta)ility and to demonstrate the Communist 6arty1s a)ility to pro"ide for the Chinese people O a critical underta*in if the CC6 is oin to perpetuate its power. ?hus, a ?aiwan confrontation , which would undermine the 6+C1s forei n trade, in"estment, and stature, would de)ilitate the CC61s de"elopment plan. Furthermore, as the o"ernment tries to implement the
approach to any ?aiwan confrontation in the hopes of preser"in internal unity. 'e"ertheless, sta)ility. ?hus
reform needed to facilitate this same economic rowth strate y, it faces fallout in the political, social, and economic arenas. Jn the political front, the CC6 is stru lin to respond to calls for reater openness, transparency, and reform to match those chan es )ein made in the economic arena. Similarly, the transition from a Communist, lar ely state0supported industrial comple9 to a mar*et0oriented economy has wrea*ed ha"oc on the 6+C1s socio0economic
, the CC4 leadership finds itself in a precario s position( respond to Chinas fervent nationalism and win reunification no matter the cost so as to potentially secure the 6arty1s sur"i"al, or compromise for fear of an economic fallo t that could pro"e eLually detrimental to the re ime1s lon e"ity. G.S. defense strategists can conse: entl" anticipate the follo#ing( the 43C #ill avoid initial confrontation at all costs - t2 sho ld conflict arise2 the CC4 leadership #ill pose a significant deterrence pro-lem its ver" s rvival is at sta!e in such a scenario and the loss of ?aiwan would li*ewise si nify the loss of
the re ime1s rip on power.
A$( No NationalismDChina &ill .e Nice

,ai#an crisis ma!es escalation inevita-le
Shlapa!2 $88H
Ma"id A. Shlapa*, Senior &nternational 6olicy Analyst j +A'M, et al, .>>=, A Auestion of :alance, +A'M, http://www.rand.or /pu)s/mono raphs/.>>=/+A'M!$8333.pdf
?he factors descri)ed in this chapter present somethin of a mi9ed )a , and their collecti"e impact, in terms of the future sta)ility of the crossstrait relationship, is somewhat
the 0tense sta-ilit"1 that characteri+ed the cross-strait confrontation prior to the mid0-==>s is sufferin from grad al erosion% ?he de)ate concernin so"erei nty o"er ?aiwan has e"ol"ed dramatically. ?oday, this dispute pits a :ei@in o"ernment that insists there is only one China of which ?aiwan is a part a ainst a ?aiwan that still retains many formal trappin s of )ein a Chinese state )ut increas0 in ly de"elops an independent national identity . 'otwithstandin the collapse of "oter
unpredicta)le. :ut we )elie"e that, in eneral,
support for the M66, nearly all si nificant political parties in ?aiwan now accept the notion that any future arran ement with China must recei"e the separate appro"al of ?aiwan1s .4 million "oters.
For :ei@in , the emer in ?aiwanese national identit" raises the profo ndl" #orrisome prospect that if nification is dela"ed for too long2 the ,ai#anese people #ill -e n#illing to accept an" arrangement that su)sumes them within a Chinese state or confederation. 8radual chan es alon these lines seem unli*ely to pro"ide the spar* for conflict, )ut they co ld provide a -ac!drop for crisis if .ei/ing concl des that long-term trends are t rning po#erf ll" against them% ?he rapidly rowin cross0strait
economic relationship means that :ei@in can now inflict si nificant pain on ?aiwan if it so chooses. :ut, to date, :ei@in has had difficulty translatin this economic le"era e into meanin ful political results, other than as a de"ice for si nalin its irritation with ?aipei.
&f :ei@in loses hope that economic and social maneu"ers can slow or re"erse forces on ?aiwan that run athwart of at least e"entual reunificaton, the attracti"eness2 in a crisis2 of militar" options is li!el" to increase% &n ?aiwan, meanwhile, ad"ocates of reater independence fear that gro#ing economic ties #ill mean 0time is not on their side 2 and they may feel the need to push more pro"ocati"e measures when political circumstances i"e them
the chance. :ei@in 1s an er at what it saw as Chen Shui0)ian1s pro"ocati"e )eha"ior encoura ed a dan erous shift in the 6+C1s red lines for threatenin force a ainst ?aiwan. :ei@in sees Chen and his allies as patholo ical en"elope0pushers constantly loo*in for ways to promote the island1s independence, and the percei"ed need to *eep Chen )o9ed in caused China to shift away from the four clear, relati"ely easyto0 follow red lines that it warned ?aiwan not to cross in the past. &nstead, China has ra"itated toward more "a ue, am)i uous red areas and it is more li*ely to define (or redefine# these situationally and reacti"ely durin periods of crisis. ?his
am)i uity and improvisation co ld -ecome dangero s so rces of misperception d ring a crisis % ?he com)ination of more than a decade of 6+C military moderni;ation and flat ?aiwanese defense spendin ha"e transformed the )alance across the strait away from one that had lon fa"ored ?aiwan. &n the heat of any future cross0strait crisis, this shift in the percei"ed )alance of forces seems to remo"e an important impediment to Chinese use of force.
Nationalism will force Chinese aggression over Taiwan 7ames Manicom, 6h.M +esearch Fellow in the Asian &nstitute at the Gni"ersity of ?oronto, Fe)ruary 2007, 'ear0term &nsta)ility in the ?aiwan
StraitR Security Challen es, Colume 4 'um)er -, http://www.securitychallen es.or .au/Article6MFs/"ol4no-$anicom.pdf This article illustrates how
growing nationalist pressures in Chinese government and society could pressure governing elites into a demonstration of force in the Taiwan Strait in the near future. In doing so, it challenges the two prevailing orthodox assessments
of cross-Strait security. The first views the cross-Strait relationship as tense but stable, the second views war between the US and China in the Strait as inevitable in the long term. In
a military crisis is possible in the short term as a result of internal domestic pressures on the leadership. In a crisis over Taiwan, Chinese leadership elites will be under pressure from three domestic sources that could inhibit their abilit to pursue a conciliator solution. These three sources are hardline elements of the !"#, remaining Third !eneration elites" and nationalist segments of the population. It concludes with an examination of the policy implications for all actors in the Strait. In short, it is imperative that the $ourth %eneration&s Taiwan policy
contrast, this article contends that appears to be ma'ing progress towards reunification.
A$( China ?no#s it #o ld lose

,ai#an is critical to regime legitimac" - China #ill go to #ar Lampton 81
NMa"id Bampton is director of China studies at 7ohns Fop*ins School of Ad"anced &nternational Studies, and author of the recent )oo* Same :ed, Mifferent Mreams: $ana in G.S.0China +elations, -=3=0.>>>.Frontline &nter"iew with Ma"id Bampton, .>>-, http://www.p)s.or /w )h/pa es/frontline/shows/china/inter"iews/lampton.htmlP if "o loo! aro nd the #orld toda" and as!ed #here in the world could t#o ma/or n clear po#ers come into conflict, & would ha"e said that the only pro)a)le place 00 and it is pro)a)ly still the onl" pro-a-le place 00 where two )i nuclear powers could come into conflict #o ld -e the ,ai#an Strait% &n effect, the prevention of ,ai#an going independent is a-sol tel" critical to the legitimac" of the Chinese comm nist regime . Chinese leaders -elieve that2 if the" were to let ,ai#an go independent and not respond, they would pro)a)ly )e o"erthrown )y their own nationalistic people . ?herefore, & thin* the" #o ld -e #illing to engage in #hat #e might call Oself-defeating militar" advent resO in order to pre"ent that result, even if the" !ne# the" #ere going to lose%
Fow dan erous is the ?aiwan issueR ... prior to the <orld ?rade Center )om)in and its aftermath,
Ext N !e &ar
A ,ai#an crisis escalates to US-China N clear #ar nothing chec!s this scenario Charles >laser is a 6rofessor of 6olitical Science and &nternational Affairs and
Mirector of the &nstitute for Security and Conflict Studies at the %lliot School of &nternational Affairs at 8eor e <ashin ton Gni"ersity. ?his essay draws on his recent )oo* +ational ?heory of &nternational 6olitics, $arch/April $811 N<ill China1s +ise Bead to <arR, Forei n Affairs, 6u)lished )y the Council on Forei n +elations, http://www.st@oe.*-..in.us/ourpa es/auto/.>-./--/-./H4=H.H/>/--0 >4>/[.><ill[.>China!s[.>+ise[.>Bead[.>to[.><ar!.pdf, s)ha P
?he prospects for a"oidin intense military competition and war may )e ood, )ut rowth in China1s power may ne"ertheless reLuire some chan es in G.S. forei n policy that <ashin ton will find disa reea)le 00 particularly re ardin ?aiwan. Althou h it lost
China still considers ,ai#an to -e part of its homeland, and unification remains a *ey political oal for :ei@in . China has made clear that it #ill se force if ,ai#an declares independence2 and m ch of Chinas conventional militar" - ild p has -een dedicated to increasing its a-ilit" to coerce ,ai#an and red cing the United States a-ilit" to intervene. :ecause China places such high val e on ,ai#an and )ecause the Gnited States and China 00 whate"er they mi ht formally a ree to 00 ha"e such different attitudes re ardin the le itimacy of the status Luo, the iss e poses special dangers and challenges for the U%S%-Chinese relationship, placin it in a different cate ory than 7apan or South (orea. A crisis over ,ai#an co ld fairl" easil" escalate to n clear #ar2 -eca se each step along the #a" might #ell seem rational to the actors involved% Current G.S. policy is desi ned to reduce the
control of ?aiwan durin the Chinese Ci"il <ar more than si9 decades a o, pro)a)ility that ?aiwan will declare independence and to ma*e clear that the Gnited States will not come to ?aiwan1s aid if it does.
the United States #o ld find itself nder press re to protect ,ai#an against an" sort of attac!2 no matter ho# it originated . 8i"en the different interests and perceptions of the "arious parties and the limited control <ashin ton has o"er ?aipei1s )eha"ior, a crisis co ld nfold in #hich the United States fo nd itself follo#ing events rather than leading them. Such dan ers ha"e )een around for decades, )ut on oin impro"ements in China1s
'e"ertheless,
military capa)ilities may ma*e :ei@in more willin to escalate a ?aiwan crisis. &n addition to its impro"ed con"entional capa)ilities,
China is moderni+ing its n clear forces to increase their a-ilit" to s rvive and retaliate follo#ing a large-scale U%S% attac!% Standard deterrence theor" holds that &ashingtons c rrent a-ilit" to destro" most or all of Chinas n clear force enhances its )ar ainin position% Chinas n clear moderni+ation might remove that chec! on Chinese action2 leading .ei/ing to -ehave more -oldl" in f t re crises than it has in past ones% A U%S% attempt to preserve its a-ilit" to defend ,ai#an2 mean#hile2 co ld f el a conventional and n clear arms race% %nhancements to G.S. offensi"e tar etin capa)ilities and strate ic
)allistic missile defenses mi ht )e interpreted )y China as a si nal of mali n G.S. moti"es, leadin to further Chinese military efforts and a eneral poisonin of GS.0Chinese relations.
Ext China &ill >o to &ar

,he perception of US encroachment f els Chinese militarism Lam $81A (<illy, ad@unct professor of history at the Chinese Gni"ersity of Fon
(on and senior fellow at the 7amestown Foundation., :ei@in 1s A ressi"e 'ew Forei n 6olicy V &mplications For ?he South China Sea, 7une .. nd, China :rief Colume -4, no. -4, http://fortunascorner.wordpress.com/.>-4/>D/../)ei@in s0 a ressi"e0new0forei n0policy0implications0for0the0south0china0sea/.#
Eet if the Gnited StatesIand other countries or )locs in the <estern alliance such as the %uropean GnionIwere unwillin to resol"e differences with China in a spirit of win0win reciprocity 2
.ei/ing has the past six months demonstrated that it is not sh" a-o t sing to gh tactics at -oth the rhetorical and s -stantive levels% At the .oao >lo-al S mmit last April, Ii scolded a certain co ntr" for 0-ringing disorder to a region and even the #orld for the sa!e of its o#n self-interest1 (China 'ews Ser"ice, April S2 6eople1s Maily online, April S#. ,he nnamed co ntr" is most li!el" the United States . Jne month later, Cui ?ian*ai, the
new Chinese Am)assador to the G.S., warned <ashin ton a ainst sidin with 7apan o"er the latter1s so"erei nty disputes with China o"er the Miaoyu0Sen*a*u islands. &n a press inter"iew, Cui as*ed <ashin ton not to lift up the )oulder that is 7apan, and particularly not to allow this )oulder to crush its own feet (6eople1s Maily Jnline, $ay .2 &fen .com N:ei@in P, $ay .#. Biftin a )oulder to crush one1s own feet was a well0*nown sayin of Chairman $ao. $oreo"er, durin 6remier Bi1s recent "isit to 8ermany, the usually mild0mannered head of o"ernment surprised his host when he used usually stron lan ua e to casti ate %uropean protectionists who supported puniti"e tariffs a ainst China1s solar panels and telecom eLuipment. Bi warned these protectionists would undou)tedly o down the road of perdition (Ca)le ?C news NFon (on P, $ay .H2 China 'ews Ser"ice, $ay .H#. 5
3hetorical f sillades pale -eside hard-po#er pro/ection as .ei/ing is #ielding -oth the militar" and economic cards to f rther its diplomatic goals% <ne of Iis first missions upon )ecomin chairman of the Central $ilitary Commission last 'o"em)er #as to tell different 4LA nits 0to get read" to fight and to #in #ars1 (Commander0in0Chief Wi 7inpin +aises the :ar on 6BA QCom)at +eadiness1, China :rief, 7anuary -3#. Compared to predecessors ex-president Jiang Remin and ex-president ' 2 Ii is more read" to se militar" m scle to p t press re on real and potential adversaries% Apart from committing nprecedented reso rces to - ilding state-of-the-art #eapons2 Ii in!ed a QA%F -illion deal to - " 3 ssian /etfighters and s -marines d ring his 5arch trip to 3 ssia . &t was the lar est Chinese purchase of +ussian hardware in a decade (China 'ews Ser"ice, $arch .S2 +euters, $arch .S#. Almost on a dail" -asis2 Chinese a thorities have deplo"ed marine police assets in the vicinit" of the Diao" -Sen!a! islands to demonstrate Chinas sovereignt" claims over the archipelago% ,he 4LA also has -oosted the fre: enc" of #ar games in the East China Sea and the So th China Sea2 incl ding naval exercises involving all three of its ma/or fleets ($in 6ao, 7une -D2 Winhua, $arch ->#. ,ensions escalate #ith militar" drills2 China prepared to stri!e ,ai#an sho ld the" declare independence SC54 @D1P (South China $ornin 6ost, ?aiwan military drill sta es China attac* scenario, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/-.344/3/taiwan0military0drill0 sta es0china0attac*0scenario# ,ai#an started a comp terised militar" drill on 5onda"2 set against an imagined scenario in #hich China invades the island in $81@% ?he fi"e0day e9ercise is part of the island1s )i est annual military manoeu"re which is this year codenamed QFan (uan .=1 (Fan 8lory .=#, officials at the defence ministry said on $onday. ,he drill sim lates a s rprise attac! -" the Chinese in $81@2 follo#ed -" a large-scale invasion2 the ministr" said2 #itho t explaining #h" the scenario is -eing staged in that partic lar "ear% . t anal"sts said the time-frame #as reasona-le2 given Chinas contin ed militar"
development and its territorial disp tes #ith neigh-o ring co ntries% Boo*in ahead, we can e9pect China to put into ser"ice O to name @ust a few O its first carrier )attle roup, stealth planes and ?ype >3- amphi)ious assault ships, said (e"in Chen , editor0in0chief of the ?aipei0)ased Asia06acific Mefence $a a;ine. China1s landin capa)ilities would )e si nificantly lifted once its forces are armed with the amphi)ious assault ships, desi ned to carry transport, anti0su)marine and attac* helicopters, he said. ?he amphi)ious assault ships could )e used in its disputes in the %ast China Sea and the South China Sea, Chen added. 'e also #arned of the threat from Chinas deplo"ment of more than 12F88 -allistic and cr ise missiles targeting ,ai#an2 as their acc rac" has -een enhanced% ,ensions across the ?aiwan Strait have eased since $a Ein 0@eou1s China0friendly administration came to power in $88P on a platform of )eefin up trade and tourism lin*s. Fe was re0elected in 7anuary last year. . t .ei/ing has still not r led o t the se of force against the island sho ld it declare independence2 even tho gh ,ai#an has r led itself for more than six decades since their split in 1HKH at the end of a civil #ar% 0<ver the past fe# "ears2 ties across the Strait have improved and civil exchanges have -een on the rise2 - t militar" threat from the mainland has not accordingl" diminished, ?aiwanese army ma@or0 eneral ?sen Fu0hsin told reporters last wee*. ?he 6eople1s Bi)eration Army launched )allistic missiles into waters near ?aiwan durin a series of li"e0fire drills in -==H and -==D, aimin to deter the ?aiwanese from "otin for Bee ?en 0hui, the independence0minded president then see*in another four0year term. China halted its sa)re0rattlin only after the Gnited States sent two aircraft carrier )attle roups to waters near the island.
;mpact A$( China .adD3andom
, rns Case
Chinese infl ence means that co ntries sa" no to the plan Ellis 11
N+. %CA' %BB&S is a professor of national security studies, modelin , amin , and simulation with the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies, with a research focus on Batin America1s relationships with e9ternal actors, includin China, +ussia, and &ran. China0Batin America military en a ement: ood will, ood )usiness, and strate ic position, Strate ic Studies &nstitute, Au ust .>--, 6a e /.P
gro#ing China-Latin America military engagement means that the United States #ill find its freedom of action in the region constrained in ways that were not the case in the past. Batin America is increasin ly acLuirin options )eyond those offered )y the Gnited States, particularly as re ardin its security cooperation, arms purchases, and personnel trainin % ?his dynamic will chan e how the re ion1s o"ernments )ar ain when it comes to access to )ases, intelli ence5 sharin , @oint operations, and permission for G.S. direct action in the re io n, for e9ample, counterdru and counterterrorism operations. At a minimum, Batin American re imes will )e more li*ely to resist a reein to G.S. reLuests that are percei"ed to "iolate their so"erei nty %) :ased
Aside from such scenarios, e"en in the )est of cases on its )eha"ior to date, it is li*ely that the 6+C will continue to e9pand its military en a ement with Batin America, includin arms sales, which will increase in "olume and sophistication, )uildin on the5 /45 demonstration of its eLuipment in the AB:A countries, capitali;in on *ey )rea*throu h transactions when they occurIwhether with 6eru and Colom)ia, or elsewhereIin order to introduce end items into the mainstream arms mar*et of the re ion. &n followin this course, althou h
response2
it is also li*ely to )ecome )older o"er time particularly as the current /th eneration Chinese leadership is superseded )y youn er leaders who ha"e rown up in a 6+C that is an accepted political and economic power, confident of its place in the world.
the 43C #ill li!el" remain highl" attentive to the U%S% 2
And2 Chinese cooperation !e" to extract concessions from the U%S% and ens res aid the" #ant Johnson 8F
NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies, a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies, at ?he Ferita e Foundation.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America, ->/.//>H, http://www.herita e.or /research/reports/.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP expanding relations #ith China might seem li*e a ood idea. &t offers the followin advantages: 6resti e. Dealing #ith China, a ma@or world power, elevates a small co ntr" into the -ig leag es of glo-al actors% &t supplies respect for those li"in in the
From Batin America's perspecti"e, shadow of the prosperous G.S. colossus. ?he no"elty of freLuent hi h0le"el Chinese "isits su less often, ha"e i nored the re ion. Meals with few reLuirements. ests that American leaders, who "isit
China can -argain on the spot #itho t a lot of caveats. &ts transactions are -ased on simple exchanges% ?heir leaders have -road a thorit" to negotiate foreign deals #itho t #orr"ing a-o t legislative oversight2 the r le of la#2 or altr istic o-/ec tives% Gnli*e <estern leaders, Chinese leaders represent state monopolies-#hich mesh #ell #ith Latin American government o#nership or mana ement of telecommunications, minin , and ener y industries. ,he" do not need to - ild p Latin American trade capacit" to deal with di"erse )usinesses. Be"era e a ainst Gncle Sam. ChinaMs expand ing ind stries are a temporar" -oon to reso rce-rich Latin America. Exports (mostly commodities# to China have gro#n -" more than E88 percent in fi"e years.NSP Compared with G.S.0Batin America trade (,/-> )illion in .>>/#, China's ,/> )illion trade with the re ion mi ht seem inconseLuential.N3P Fowe"er, Chinese trade and investment gives Latin politicians and - siness elites, who lar ely control commodities, a -argaining chip #hen dealing #ith the United States%
A$( China ?ills 'eg

Chinese infl ence in Latin America doesnt h rt hegemon" Jiang $88@
NShi9ue 7ian , Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences?hree Factors in the +ecent Me"elopment of Sino0Batin American +elations, %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP ,he ne#s media in the United States have -een portra"ing a #rong perception of the de"elopment of Chinese relations #ith Latin America. Jne editorial in the <all Street 7ournal, for instance, says, ?he rise of China in the re ion could complicate G.S. efforts to control ille al immi ration, weapons shipments, the dru trade and money launderin )ecause China is cooperatin with Batin countries that are not especially friendly toward those efforts. Some of these nations may try to use the Chinese alternati"e to challen e G.S. he emony.H ,he United States concern over the closer relationship -et#een China and Latin America is misplaced and nnecessar". &t is well0*nown that Latin America has )een on the path of reform and openin to the outside world for almost two decades. ;t endeavors to attract more foreign investment and li)erali;e the mar*et so as to stimulate rowth. As a result, China is only one of the economic partners with whom Batin America has )een tryin to cooperate. China nderstands #ell that Latin America is the -ac!"ard of the United States2 so China has no intention whatsoe"er to challen e the American he emony in Batin America. .oth China and Latin America have -een opening to the o tside #orld. &n the a e of lo)ali;ation -oth of them sho ld cooperate to p sh for#ard So th-So th cooperation% As a matter of fact2 f rther cooperation -et#een China and Latin America #ill )eneZt regional peace and de"elopment in the Asia06aciZ c re ion and in Batin America. S ch an o tcome #o ld also certainl" favor the United States%
Lots of factors prevent great po#er conflict #itho t hegemon" 6ett#eis 18 (Christopher 7. 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at ?ulane, Man erous
?imes0?he &nternational 6olitics of 8reat 6ower 6eace, p . -SH0D#
&f the only thin standin )etween the world and chaos is the GS military presence, then an ad@ustment in rand strate y would )e e9ceptionally counter0producti"e. :ut it is worth recallin that
none of the other explanations for the decline of #ar nuclear weapons2 complex economic
interdependence2 international and domestic political instit tions2 evol tion in ideas and norms necessitate an activist America to maintain their validit"% &ere American to -ecome more restrained2 n clear #eapons #o ld still affect the calc lations of the #o ld -e aggressor 2 the process of glo-ali+ation #o ld contin e2 deepening the complexit" of economic interdependence2 the Gnited 'ations could still deploy peace*eepers where necessary2 and
democracy would not shri"el where it currently e9ists. $ore importantly, the idea that war is a worthwhile way to resol"e conflict would ha"e no reason to return. As was ar ued in chapter ., normati"e e"olution is typically unidirectional. Strate ic restraint in such a
world )e "irtually ris* free.
China in Latin America doesnt h rt heg Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er,
$assachusetts. Bi has pu)lished do;ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies, 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism, ?he Fistorian, 6olicy Studies 7ournal, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science, Asian 6erspecti"e, American 7ournal of Chinese Studies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e, ->0-0$88F N+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep.>>H, Col. -> &ssue ., pSS, http://lin*.sprin er.com/content/pdf/->.->>S/:F>.3SS>.=.pdf, s)ha P
After a period of fundamental reassessment in the Chinese forei n policy in the late -==>s 2
China has adopted a strateg" designed not to challenge the U%S% in spite of the fact that the G.S. support for ?aiwan is
seen as a continued affront to China1s sense of national so"erei nty. &n contrast to a decade a o, the world's most populous country now lar ely wor*s within the international system. &t has em)raced much of the current constellation of international institutions, rules, and norms as a means to promote its national interests. And it has e"en sou ht to shape the e"olution of that system in limited ways. H4 :u shu di Ndo
not see! enem"N has -ecome an essential part of Chinas ne# foreign polic"% H/ &t has )ecome clear that .ei/ing has ta!en a less confrontational2 more sophisticated, more confident, and at times, more constructi"e approach to#ard regional and glo-al affairs. ?he current Chinese Communist 6arty leadership, li*e its predecessors since Men .ei/ing has attempted to !eep a lo# profile and avoid open confrontation #ith the United States. ?here remain concerns a)out possi)le isolation and encirclement )y
confrontation.
Wiaopin , remains committed to a forei n policy that creates e9ternal conditions conduci"e to China1s domestic need for stron economic rowth. ?he war on terrorism has pro"ided important opportunities to sta)ili;e the G.S.0China relationship. Since the early -==>s :ei@in 1s policy toward the G.S. is to stren then confidence, reduce trou)le, de"elop cooperation, and not see*
hostile powers: :ei@in is uneasy a)out the G.S. in"ol"ement in Central Asia, uncertain a)out the American relations with &ndia and a)out the 'A?J e9pansion. 7 JG+'AB JF C F&'%S% 6 JB&?&CAB S C&%'C% =/ As a matter of fact, some would ar ue that, today, China is no lon er a risin powerI)ut a risen power. HH &n a sense, the emer ence of a new reat power in an important re ion could intrinsically harm G.S. interests, since relati"e American power and influence in that re ion mi ht proportionately decline unless the Gnited States e9pends more efforts and resources to counteract the new player. ?he de ree to which increased Chinese power mi ht endan er G.S. interests could "ary reatly dependin on how :ei@in see*s to employ this power. An ad"ersarial G.S.0China relationship would find :ei@in usin its rowin stren th in a purposeful and systematic assault on G.S. interests, as the 6+C would tend to "iew G.S. interests as )arriers to the achie"ement of the Chinese oals. ?his scenario would constitute a serious challen e to
4resentl"2 China has caref ll" crafted a Latin American polic" that is tr"ing to avoid antagoni+ing the United States in the region. ?his is due to se"eral factors. 6irst2 China is #ell a#are that the United States has traditionall" regarded Latin America as #ithin its sphere of infl ence and as a conseLuence that <ashin ton is "ery sensiti"e a)out :ei@in 1s acti"ities in its )ac*yard. HS Second, from the standpoint of the Chinese military and others in :ei@in , China was (and is# wea*, and li*ely to remain so for many years, especially in relations to the G.S. H3 ?herefore, .ei/ing cannot afford to /eopardi+e its relations #ith &ashington to maintain militar" presence in the region . ?hird2 .ei/ing considers that China sho ld contri)ute to the de"elopment of the ?hird <orld, )ut should try to avoid nilateral 0contri- tion1 in the sec rit" area2 since the U%S% is ver" sensitive in this area2 and it could easily lead to misunderstandin s. H= 6o rth2 .ei/ing also has reali+ed that a more prospero s2 developed China #ill contin e to need American capital2 advanced technolog"2 and certain man fact red goods% ,h s it is in .ei/ings interests to phold the stat s : o of supportin a li)eral international trade re ime and preparin themsel"es to )e efficient competitors. &n fact, some of the fears associated #ith rising China are ill sor". An e9ample is the notion that the 6BA will deny G.S. warship
G.S. interests, with potential to de"elop into a new Cold <ar. HD access to the 6anama Canal )ased on the Futchhison <hampoa Company1s control of the port facilities at )oth end of the canal. Futchhison <hampoa is controlled )y Fon (on )illionaire Bi (a0shin , who has past )usiness lin* with the 6BA. Accordin to
;n the near f t re2 China is not capa-le of pro/ecting militar" po#er -e"ond Asia despite its glo-al aspirations. &t could )ecome in"ol"ed in distant disputes only so lon as they remain "ery
Menny +oy, should this threat materiali;e, air)orne G.S. troops could Luic*ly and easily sei;e control of the canal. D>
small in scope. &t is should )e noted that :ei@in no lon er lam)astes of American imperialism since it is not in the :ei@in 1s lon 0
.ei/ing proves less and less #illing to s pport Latin American co ntries direct confrontation #ith &ashington .
term interests to o"erthrow the present world order. Fence China continues to attac* the G.S. on "arious Batin American issues: such as the G.S. em)ar o a ainst Cu)a, +&CAB+E :%?<%%' ?A&<A' A'M ?F% 6+C &' BA?&' A$%+&CA =H yet :ei@in 1s support for the economic nati onalism and anti0 lo)ali;ation mo"ement
Chinese see! a delicate -alance in enco raging Latin American co ntries to distance themselves from the United States and s stain their economic development2 #hich the U%S% is long considered as a gro#th engine% ?here are still se"eral disa reements )etween :ei@in and <ashin ton in the re ion. &t is widely
has )ecome less salient. *nown that the :ush Administration wishes to remo"e the Castro re ime, which it deems unresponsi"e and detrimental. :ei@in is *nown as a primary supporter of Fa"ana. &n addition to Cu)a, :ei@in see*s to stay on ood terms with the left0oriented re imes such as Cene;uela under ChU"e; and :ra;il under Bula, )oth of them could not see eye to eye with <ashin ton on a "ariety of issues. After the collapse of the former So"iet )loc, there are few communist re imes that :ei@in call friends in the world today. China needs a stron ally in Batin America. Since the early -==>s, the two countries ha"e )een cooperatin closely in a "ariety of international issues. China supports Cu)a in maintainin its current political system and in clashes with the G.S., whereas Cu)a acti"ely supports China in its admission to the <orld ?rade Jr ani;ation (<?J#, China's positions on human ri hts, ?aiwan, and ?i)et issues. Counteractin the G.S. stance also moti"ates the Chinese support of Cu)a. 'onetheless, this does not translate into enormous financial commitment. At present, Cu)a, :ei@in 1s staunchest ally in the re ion, owes much of its de)t to %urope, 7apan, Ar entina, $e9ico, Cene;uela, and +ussia. D- &t is apparent that
an" attempt -" .ei/ing to pla" a 0C -a card1 #ithin the larger context of the ,ai#an pro-lem (i.e. parallel arms sales, etc.# appears o tlandish2 at least for the near and medi m term% D. :ei@in offers
lar ely moral support for Fa"ana and sees its economic reform as a model for the Cu)an reform. China1s continued support of Cu)a appears moti"ated )y desire to maintain old friendship with Fa"ana. D4 :ei@in 1s close relations with Fa"ana are as much lia)ilities as assets. Gnli*e the former So"iet Gnion, China does not ha"e the means nor the will to ma*e a military commitment to Cu)a. Facin hu e de"elopment needs at home, :ei@in prefers to use trade promotion and @oint "entures to maintain friends in the re ion. ?o date, the Chinese challen es are mainly from the economic arena. %conomically, the Chinese are competin with the G.S. for Cene;uela1s oil e9ports and mar*et for manufactured products. 8i"en the current poor state of G.S.0 Cene;uelan relations under the ChU"e; o"ernment, American o)ser"ers worry that Cene;uelan ener y a reements with China ultimately may ser"e to di"ert oil from the Gnited States. D/ <hile Cene;uelan ener y officials ha"e denied this, in Mecem)er .>>/, 6resident ChU"e; was reported to ha"e referred to Cene;uela1s lon oil0 producin history as ->> years of domination )y the Gnited States. Fe asserted that
Despite its disagreements #ith &ashington a-o t man" iss es2 .ei/ing is nli!el" to threaten the f ndamental interests of the United States in the &estern J JG+'AB JF C F&'%S% 6 JB&?&CAB S C&%'C% =D 'emisphere. &n comparison with the Gnited States influence in Batin America and the Cari))ean, China1s role in the re ion remains mar inal. So far2 .ei/ing has adopted a lo#-!e" approach in order to prevent p -lic confrontation #ith the United States . As China )ecomes an esta)lished power in lo)al system 2 it is in Chinas o#n interests to see Latin America and the Cari--ean to en/o" political sta-ilit" and economic prosperit"%
'ow we are free, and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese fatherland. DH
A$( China ?ills Local EconomiesDSta-ilit"

Chinese infl ence !e" to Latin Americas econom" <Neil 1$
NShannon, Senior Fellow for Batin America Studies, China1s %conomic +ole in Batin America,->/.D/-., http://)lo s.cfr.or /oneil/.>-./->/.D/chinas0economic0role0in0 latin0america/P trade #ith China has helped sp r Latin Americas economic gro#th. ;ncreased ties #ith China have pla"ed a -ig part of the strong ()y Latin American standards# >D4 gro#th of last decade. %specially for :ra;il, Ar entina, and 6eru, connections to the #orlds economic engine #ere important in #a!e of the #orld financial crisis% Comparin :ra;il1s and $e9ico1s rowth rates in .>-> tells that storyIand the positi"e role that China can and does play. Chinas trade has also -enefited Latin Americas cons mers . ?he )i story of the last two decades is the rise of a middle class in many Batin American countries. Achieving a middle class lifest"le relies in part on higher incomes2 - t also on greater p rchasing po#er% Access to more goods of -etter : alit" and at lower prices, has changed the lives of man". China1s sales of clothin , electronics, and e"en cars ha"e -enefited those in the middle and lo#er middle ran!s%
Jn the ood side,
;nsta-ilit" is inevita-le .lanco2 8H (Bon Bi"e Memocracy: ?he Meterminants of 6olitical &nsta)ility in Batin
America, https://docs. oo le.com/"iewerR url\http://www.ou.edu/cas/econ/wppdf/insta)ilityinla [.H.>r .pdfVem)edded\trueVchrome\true# +an*ed as the third most unsta)le re ion in the world in the post0war era, political insta-ilit" has -een a pervasive pro-lem in Latin America % 1 ;n o r sample of 1P Latin American co ntries from 1H@1-$8882 there #ere $8 co ps detat2 KF1 political assassinations2 $1@ riots2 and 11A crises that threatened to -ring do#n the sitting government. . Jnly three Batin American countries were consistently democratic o"er the thirty year period: Costa +ica, Colom)ia, and Cene;uela. 4 All of the rest of the countries switched from a democracy to an autocracy (or "ice "ersa# at least once. &n sum, political insta)ility is a persistent and pernicious pro)lem in the re ion. / 8i"en the many studies that document the ne ati"e relationship )etween insta)ility and capital accumulation (Alesina V 6erotti (-==D#2 Alesina et.al. (-==D##, it is li*ely that this insta)ility has hampered economic de"elopment in the re ion. &n this paper, we see* to unco"er the factors )ehind this insta)ility. &n a &n this paper we analy;e the determinants of political insta)ility in a panel of -3 Batin American countries from -=S- to .>>>. 'ot only is Batin America an interestin re ion to study )ecause of it1s unusually persistent pro)lems with insta)ility, )ut focusin on a small sample helps us to a"oid potential pro)lems with poolin data from a lar e set of "ery different countries. H <e find three main interestin results: First, regime t"pe is a significant determinant of insta-ilit" in the area% Co ntries #ith higher democrac" scores also have lo#er average political insta-ilit" , which indicates that recent mo"es to increased democracy in the re ion may )rin a)out less insta)ility in the future. ?his result is tempered thou h )y our findin that lon li"ed democracies ha"e a reater chance of e9periencin insta)ility than eLually lon li"ed autocracies. Second, we find that income ine: alit" and ethnic fractionali+ation
are -oth important factors -ehind insta-ilit"% Co ntries #ith lo# Cor highG levels of ine: alit" have less average insta-ilit" than co ntries #ith average levels of ine: alit"2 and ethnic fractionali+ation has a non linear effect on political insta-ilit"% ;ncreases in ethnic fractionali+ation lo#er insta-ilit" ntil a certain level of diversit"2 at #hich point an" increases in diversit" are associated #ith higher political insta-ilit" . ?hird, we find that many of the macroeconomic "aria)les included in our estimation (includin the le"el and standard de"iation of inflation and o"ernment )ud et deficit# are only wea*ly si nificant at )est. Jnly la ed "alues of trade openness and in"estment are helpful in e9plainin current political insta)ility.
Dr g #ar f els insta-ilit" in Latin America CS;S, A6+ .S, $818 ((atherine Fu))ard, Areas to <atch: ?he Mru <ar in
Central America, http://csis.or /)lo /areas0watch0dru 0war0central0america, C<, accessed on ->/-D/-># Central American states are findin themsel"es increasin ly cau ht in the crossfire as $e9ico, Colom)ia, and the G.S. step up efforts to com)at dru 0traffic*in cartels. Crac*downs on air)orne and maritime shipments from South America are forcin $e9ican dru traffic*ers to switch to land0)ased smu lin throu h Central America. As the smu lers increase their presence, they are )rin in "iolence, corruption, and political insta)ility to states that are already wea*, poor, and unprepared to deal with the loomin threat. %"idence shows that the le"el of dru traffic passin throu h Central America has s*yroc*eted in the past two years alone. Accordin to a report from the G.S. 'ational Mru &ntelli ence Center, less than one percent of the estimated D>> to S>> tons of cocaine that departed South America for the G.S. in .>>S transited Central America. ?odayofficials estimate that )etween si9ty and ninety percent of the cocaine that enters the G.S. tra"els throu h Central America. ?his astoundin increase in land0)ased traffic*in is the result of concerted efforts )y the American, $e9ican, and Colom)ian o"ernments to increase monitorin and interdiction of lar e ships and aircraft, the "ehicles traditionally used for smu lin dru s. As a result of these efforts, officials estimate that the aerial traffic*in of cocaine has decreased )y as much as ninety percent, and maritime traffic*in has decreased )y an estimated si9ty percent. :ecause of this challen e to traditional traffic*in mechanisms, smu lers were forced to find other means of transportin their dru shipments. Accordin to a S?+A?FJ+ reportk, )y early .>>3 a series of de"elopments in se"eral Central American countries su ested that dru 0traffic*in or ani;ations O $e9ican cartels in particular O were increasin ly esta)lishin new land0)ased smu lin routes throu h Central America. ?he effects of this increase in dru 0smu lin acti"ity are already )e innin to )e felt in some Central American countries. Mru "iolence is on the rise in Fonduras, a *ey transit point for Colom)ian cocaine headed for the Gnited States, where appro9imately -,D>> people were *illed in .>>= in dru 0related incidents. Another area of particular concern is 8uatemala, which the G.S. State Mepartment calls the epicenter of the dru threat. &n 8uatemala, corruption and inadeLuate law enforcement efforts ha"e led to low interdiction le"els durin the past se"eral years. $e9ican dru traffic*in or ani;ations ha"e ta*en ad"anta e of this situation and mo"ed some of their operations into 8uatemala. %ntire re ions of
the country are now essentially under the control of these or ani;ations, t he most "isi)le of which is the $e9ican roup *nown as the Tetas. ?here is reason for concern that the re ion will increasin ly )ecome a )attle round in the $e9ican cartel war )ecause the conditions in many Central American countries ma*e them particularly "ulnera)le to attac*. ?hey are underde"eloped, ha"e wea* @udicial systems, and ha"e often recently emer ed from conflicts that left them awash with weapons. Jne G' official said, All of these are conditions for "iolence and chaos, and in some instances e"en loss of control of territory, and so traffic*ers are aware of that and they always loo* for the path of least resistance.
6oreign Direct ;nvestment -" China -oosts gro#th +hys Jen!ins2 8P %nriLue Mussel 6eters, $auricio $esLuita $oreira, ?he &mpact of China on Batin America and the Cari))ean, <orld Me"elopment, Colume 4D, &ssue ., Fe)ruary, 6a es .4H0.H4, &SS' >4>H0SH>W, http://d9.doi.or /->.->-D/@.worldde"..>>S.>D.>-.. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S>4>HSH>W>S>>-==/ # (eywords: China2 Batin America2 trade2 forei n direct in"estment2 competition
,he increased competitiveness of China and its expanded presence in #orld mar!ets is having a ma/or impact on )oth de"eloped and de"elopin countries. <hile this has )een e9tensi"ely analy;ed from the point of "iew of de"eloped countries (Cass et al., .>>4 and 6rasad, .>>/#, much less is *nown a)out the implications for Latin America. A decade a o trade -et#een China and the region #as limited - t this has changed dramaticall"% Chinese firms are also -eginning to invest in Latin America% ,hese gro#ing economic lin!s have -een reflected politically with the "isit of Chinese 6resident Fu 7intao to the re ion in .>>/, while a num)er of Batin American leaders ha"e )een to :ei@in . As can )e seen from Fi ure -, the rapid gro#th of Latin American trade with China dates from the end of the -==>s. Murin -===O.>>H China1s imports from Latin America increased sevenfold #hile its exports to the region more than tripled. Startin in the mid0-=3>s most of the countries of the re ion had underta*en far reachin economic reforms, which included trade li)erali;ation, pri"ati;ation and reductions in fiscal deficits. ." the end of the 1HH8s2 inflation rates had -een -ro ght do#n2 the Latin American economies #ere far more open than they had )een two decades earlier and most countries had adopted e9chan e rate policies which a"oided e9tremes of o"er"aluation (&M:, -==S#. As a res lt exporters in Latin America #ere #ell placed to respond to the -oom in import demand from China% At the same time, the increased openness of the Batin American economies ena)led Chinese e9ports to penetrate the domestic mar*et, especially after China @oined the <?J in .>>-, althou h some restrictions remained in a num)er of countries for se"eral years after that. &n terms of the channels of interaction )etween the Asian Mri"ers and Batin America, this paper concentrates on the first two identified )y (aplins*y and $essner, trade and forei n direct in"estment (FM&#. ?he ne9t section focuses on the direct impacts and the followin section on the indirect impacts of China on the re ion in terms of the
competiti"e threats which it poses, )oth in terms of Batin America1s e9ports to third countries and as a pole of attraction for FM&, as well as the impacts on the re ion1s terms of trade. <here possi)le these sections identify the countries and sectors which are most affected )y China. 6articular attention is i"en to the two lar est Latin American economies, :ra;il and $e9ico. ?hese are often seen as ha"in contrastin e9periences, with :ra;il ha"in achie"ed ma@or e9ports of primary commodities to China, while $e9ico has )een ne ati"ely affected )y Chinese competition in e9port mar*ets, particularly the Gnited States. ?he penultimate section of the paper discusses the impacts #hich the gro#th of China is having on development in Latin America and the Cari))ean with a partic lar emphasis on the possi)le implications for povert" red ction in the region. ?he concludin section identifies ma@or policy challen es for Batin America arisin from the rowth of China.
3ising Chinese infl ence creates massive economic -enefits for Latin America .lX+: e+-Lido" et al E (7or e :lU;Lue;0Bidoy 0 %conomic :ureau of the
6resident, Spain, 7a"ier +odrb ue; O %conomist at the 8lo)al $ar*ets Mepartment of :anco :il)ao Ci;caya, Ar entaria and 7a"ier Santiso 0 Chief Me"elopment %conomist and Meputy Mirector of the Me"elopment Centre of the J%CM, 7une .>>D, A'8%B J+ M%C&BR CF&'A1S ?+AM% &$6AC? J' BA?&' A$%+&CA' %$%+8&'8 $A+(%?S, J%CM Me"elopment Centre, https://www-.oecd.or /china/4S>H/44D.pdf# Chinas economic -oom is a ma/or glo-al change% ?hat the emer
howe"er, the $iddle (in dom has e9perienced accelerated e9pansion. ence of China is not new, is underlined )y An us $addison in his seminal wor*s for the Me"elopment Centre - . At the )e innin of the -=th Century China still represen ted nearly a third of world 8M6 )efore losin round. J"er the past decade,
&hile this emergence is perceived -oth as a threat to and as an opport nit" -" other developing co ntries2 in the Latin American context China loo!s more li!e a 0trade angel1 and a 0helping hand1 as #ell as -eing an o tlet for h ge amo nts of commodities from the region% Chinas trade impact on Latin America is positive 2 -oth directl"2 thro gh a -oom of exports and indirectl"2 thro gh -etter terms of trade% ?he emer ence of China, this paper ma*es plain, is also a challen e for Batin
American countries. &t reinforces the ur ent case for more reforms, in particular in the area of infrastructure, to maintain the continent1s comparati"e ad"anta e. For those that are )enefitin from the Chinese )oom, the ma@or policy challen e will )e to capitalise on the Chinese windfall without )ein pushed into to a raw materials corner and to remain inte rated in the "alue chain of lo)al production.
,his paper presents empirical and detailed evidence of the trade impact of China on Latin America2 and finds that it is one of the regions that stands to -enefit most from the emergence of this ne# glo-al pla"er% ,he a thors emphasise the need for the region to capitalise on this #indfall in a more active #a"% &f this opportunity
for Batin America is to )e sei;ed and the re ion is to draw the ma9imum )enefits from its traditional endowments, its economies will need to mo"e more acti"ely and rapidly towards more "alue0added industries and a"oid mere
.e"ond this Chinese impact on Latin America2 #hat is also emerging is a more promising and str ct ral relationship -eing - ilt -et#een Asia and Latin America% ,he economic ties -et#een the t#o regions #ere alread" strong2 - t the emergence of China and ;ndia is a ma/or change in the scale of these relations% For %urope and the Gnited
dependence on raw materials e9ports. States this is also a wa*e0up call.
Chinese presence in Latin America !e" to economic gro#th in -oth areas ^i EDP/.>-4 (Eunfei O researcher on international relations, 7une 3 th .>-4, Wi's
"isit to Batin America enhances relations, China.or , http://www.china.or .cn/opinion/.>-40>D/>3/content!.=>D3>=-.htm# 4resident IiMs first state visit to Latin American and the Cari--ean region has profo nd implications for relations -et#een the region and China%
?rinidad and ?o)a o is an important player in the %n lish0spea*in Cari))ean re ion and also one of China's most important partners in the re ion. Costa +ica is the only Central American nation to ha"e esta)lished diplomatic relations with China, while $e9ico, as an important emer in mar*et economy, has maintained a strate ic partnership with China. Fon Bei, spo*esperson for China's $inistry of Forei n Affairs, commented that China "iewed the "isit as an opportunity to enhance political trust, reciprocal cooperation and friendship )etween China
China has #or!ed to improve ties #ith Latin America in order to promote m t al -enefits2 nderstanding and cooperation2 rather than to gain a competitive edge in Latin America% . rgeoning trade relations -et#een China and Latin America is the ma/or driving force for improved ties -et#een the t#o% China is no# Latin AmericaMs second largest trading partner and ma/or investment so rce% &t is also the lar est tradin partner of :ra;il and Chile and second lar est tradin partner of Ar entina, $e9ico, 6eru and Cene;uela. ,he val e of trade -et#een China and Latin America exceeded USQ$F8 -illion -" $81$2 #ith Latin America -ecoming ChinaMs second largest foreign investment destination% ;mproved economic ties -et#een China and Latin America are m t all" -eneficial2 #ith Latin American co ntries in need of Chinese investment in infrastr ct re constr ction2 a tomo-ile man fact re and nat ral reso rces exploitation2 #hile China has a h ge demand for Latin AmericaMs rich nat ral reso rces% Mespite the "isi)le )enefits, China will face considera)le
and the three Cari))ean nations, as well as with other nations in Batin America and the Cari))ean.
challen es as it loo*s to increase its in"estment in Batin America. ?o this end, it is crucial that China learns more a)out Batin American mar*ets and their rules and re ulations. &n"estment in the re ion's oil and mineral resources will )e hampered )y such comple9 issues as la)or laws, local community o)@ections and the concerns of the en"ironmental protection lo))y. %conomic cooperation )etween China and Batin0America is still somewhat stymied )y the fact that )oth sides possess a similar industrial structure which has resulted in increased trade friction )etween the two sides. Some small and medium0si;ed enterprises in Batin America fear that they will lose their competiti"e ad"anta e in industries where China also has a share. Mifferent industrial sectors in Batin America are also di"ided re ardin their o"ernments' China policy, with manufacturin sectors as*in for trade protection and
China and LatinAmerica are set to enhance comprehensive relations, and there is a need for )oth
the minin and a ricultural industries demandin easier access to the Chinese mar*et.
sides to deepen their strate ic cooperation )ased on mutual political trust, enlar e their common interests, ta*in trade cooperation as a *ey factor, and safe uard food security throu h cooperation in a ricultural production.
Economic cooperation -et#een China and Latin America sho ld go -e"ond trade and reach into areas incl ding investment and scientific innovation% China should increase its direct in"estment in Batin America and participate in its infrastructure
up rade process. ?he two sides will also promote people0to0people e9chan es and cultural communication.
Experts agree Chinas economic infl ence on Latin America is -eneficial .lX+: e+-Lido" et al E (7or e :lU;Lue;0Bidoy 0 %conomic :ureau of the
6resident, Spain, 7a"ier +odrb ue; O %conomist at the 8lo)al $ar*ets Mepartment of :anco :il)ao Ci;caya, Ar entaria and 7a"ier Santiso 0 Chief Me"elopment %conomist and Meputy Mirector of the Me"elopment Centre of the J%CM, 7une .>>D, A'8%B
J+ M%C&BR CF&'A1S ?+AM% &$6AC? J' BA?&' A$%+&CA' %$%+8&'8 $A+(%?S, J%CM Me"elopment Centre, https://www-.oecd.or /china/4S>H/44D.pdf# Chinese trade impact on Latin America is2 in the short and medi m r n and in general terms2 positive% ,he res lts of o r st d" are consistent #ith others s ch as the one prod ced -" ;56 economists and other economists (Ball and <e iss, .>>/#. Jn a"era e, and from the point of "iew of trade impact 2 Latin America #ill -enefit from increased Chinese demand and gro#th% ;n comparative terms , as stressed )y the &$F, the only net loser will )e South Asia, while for Latin America the #elfare effect #ill -e positive% 6or se ctors s ch as agric lt re in Latin America2 the estimated impact of faster Chinese integration aro nd $8$8 is clearl" positive (with output up )y / per cent#. ?he clear losers will )e, howe"er, sectors such as te9tiles and from the
point of "iew of countries, the ones specialisin in la)our0intensi"e manufactures e9ports. $ore detailed analysis would )e howe"er needed in particular referrin to the trade impact of China in the home mar*ets of Batin American countries such as, for e9ample, $e9ico. &n terms of trade relations, China and Batin America ha"e )een intensi"ely de"elopin their relations o"er the past decade 4S . ?he trade "olume )etween China and Batin America rose from ,. )illion in the early -==>s to ,-H )illion in .>>-, accordin to Chinese statistics. Since .>>>, :ra;ilian and Chinese trade has leapt nearly threefold, a )lessin for the :ra;ilian inde)ted economy and especially for the e9porters of soy)eans, steel and iron ore, which accounted for two0thirds of the oods e9ported. ;n general2
Latin America2 has a s rpl s commodit" endo#ment that -oosts s"nergies #ith China needs and strateg" to sec re food and energ" imports in order to avoid shortages%
A$( China ?ills Enviro

Destr ction inevita-le and alt ca ses 4rada and Sta ffer 1A
N6aulo 6rada and Caroline Stauffer, +euters, Be al uncertainty cuts pro ress a ainst Ama;on deforestation, D/H/-4, http://www.reuters.com/article/.>-4/>D/>H/us0)ra;il0 deforestation0idGS:+%=H/-M=.>-4>D>HP .ra+il is str ggling to implement the new r les, addin to uncertainty that appears to )e f eling an increase in clearing of the Ama+on rainforest. +e ulators, landowners and farmers say they don't *now how lon it will ta*e to enact the new Yforestry code,Y a
A year after adoptin chan es to its lon 0standin forestry policy, dense law that, amon other rules, o"erns the amount of woodland that must )e preser"ed on farms and other producti"e property. Jn <ednesday, 6resident Milma +ousseff reco ni;ed the scale of the chore, especially a crucial first step to re ister :ra;il's more than H million farms and ranches, a process essential to demarcate e9istin cropland from protected terrain. Y<e ha"e to consider this one of the reat challen es for the country,Y she said durin a speech in the capital, :rasilia. Y<e will pro"e that we ha"e solid instruments to maintain a )alance )etween the producti"ity of farmin , ranchin and forestry and the protection of the en"ironment.Y +ousseff spo*e at an e"ent where :ra;il updated pre"ious deforestation fi ures, showin an annual decrease throu h 7uly .>-.. ?he fi ures )uild on pro ress of pre"ious years. $ore recent data, howe"er, su ests the trend has since re"ersed, as
the slo# rollo t of the ne# forest code and -ig ongoing development pro/ects create a scenario that activists sa" fosters destr ction. 6reliminary o"ernment fi ures, and those of a pri"ate research institute, show an upswin in cleared forest
chan es to en"ironmental policy, since Au ust .>-.. Meforestation fi ures, which radually et updated as on0the0 round research complements satellite data, are tallied monthly and compiled in an annual ta)ulation that )e ins in Au ust, when the Ama;on dry season ma*es ima ery the most
6or farmers and ranchers in .ra+il, Latin AmericaMs -iggest co ntr" and one of the #orldMs top agric lt ral prod ct exporters2 do -ts a-o t the ne# code are clo ding long-term planning2 especiall" #ith regard to fields that ma" need reforesting. Unless the government enacts the code s#iftl"2 the la# co ld -ecome v lnera-le to the sort of de-ate and calls for modification that plag ed the previo s code% Y?his is a re ulatory transition that must not
relia)le.
last any lon er than necessary,Y warned Andre Bima, a pu)lic policy ad"isor at the Ama;on %n"ironmental +esearch 8roup, or &6A$. <hen lawma*ers last year adopted the new code, :ra;il's o"ernment said it would dispel uncertainty in pre"ious forestry law. 'ow, thou h, e"en o"ernment a encies say the opposite is happenin 0 at least while :ra;il fi ures out how to apply it. Y<e're loo*in at four or fi"e years )efore we would see any result,Y 8eor e 6orto Ferreira, who mana es deforestation data for &)ama, :ra;il's federal en"ironmental a ency, told +euters. ?he first step to enact the new code, tri ered )y a one0year deadline esta)lished in the law, is @ust now startin . &t reLuires each of :ra;il's .D states to re ister e"ery farm and ranch. &n addition to mappin out their precise location and dimensions for the first time, the process will help identify e9actly what is cropland and forest on those plots and esta)lish which portions must )e replanted as woodland. A pro"ision of the new code, an effort to ma*e up for past deforestation, stipulates that a total area rou hly the si;e of &taly must )e reforested. A o"ernment study predicts the pro"ision will not hurt har"ests )ecause most replantin can ta*e place on de raded pastures, not producti"e fields. Still, states are only now )e innin to fi ure out how to re ister the farms, an arduous process that is e9pected to ta*e at least two years. At least two more years will )e needed after that for farmers to de"elop their reforestation plans. Farmers then ha"e up to two decades for the plantin itself. Gntil states spell out how to proceed, landowners and producers are oin a)out )usiness as usual. Y<e're loo*in forward to the code's implementation so we can *now what chan es, if any, need to )e made,Y said %duardo 8odoi, an e9ecuti"e at Famato, the farmin and ranchin federation of $ato 8rosso, :ra;il's )i est soy0producin state. CJ'?&'G%M M%S?+GC?&J' ?he
After "ears of declines2 preliminar" government data s ggests that deforestation increased -" 1F percent -et#een A g st $81$ and April $81A2 compared #ith the same nine-month period a "ear earlier% ?he o"ernment says a f ller pict re #ill follo# the dr" season and clarif" #hat damage is man-made and #hat is the res lt of #ildfires and other nat ral deterioration% :ut the data so far supports the theory that high crop and commodit" prices provo!e destr ction2 said Ferreira, the federal official. &n $ato 8rosso, the state with
lim)o ena)les destruction, en"ironmentalists say. the most deforestation since Au ust, there was a -. percent @ump in soy plantin . ?he o"ernment's fi ures are modest compared to those compiled )y &ma;on, a pri"ate research institute that also trac*s satellite ima ery. &ts fi ures su est deforestation increased )y as much as 33 percent durin the nine0month period. &f )orne out, the trend would underscore fears that +ousseff has dele ated too much enforcement to local authorities, who critics say are more li*ely to fa"or de"elopment o"er en"ironmental concerns. Meforestation
is alread" creeping into areas #here she has declassified par!land and changed polic" to allo# for h"droelectric dams and other infrastr ct re pro/ects% 6roducers, meanwhile, are hopin the o"ernment deli"ers on a "a ue
pled e in the new code for Ypayments for en"ironmental ser"ices.Y ?hat is, :ra;il, in theory, will compensate farmers for *eepin
"ir in forests on their lands. +esearchers say as much as D> percent of land protected )y the code is pri"ately owned or in "ulnera)le pu)lic areas outside e9istin par*s or nature reser"es. %n"ironmental roups and the o"ernment are considerin "arious methods, such as car)on mar*ets, that could place a "alue on that woodland.
No frame#or!2 ho#ever2
appears li!el" an"time soon% %n"ironmental de radation is ine"ita)le
'ale 11
(r. :en@amin Fale is associate professor in the 6hilosophy Mepartment and the %n"ironmental Studies 6ro ram at the Gni"ersity of Colorado, :oulder. From .>>D0.>>3 he was Mirector of the Center for Calues and Social 6olicy, and continues acti"e en a ement with the center )y co0or ani;in the annual +oc*y $ountain %thics (+o$%# Con ress with Alastair 'orcross.Fe also wor*s closely with the Center for Science and ?echnolo y 6olicy +esearch, located under C&+%S, the Cooperati"e &nstitute for +esearch in %n"ironmental Sciences. Fe is co0editor (with Andrew Bi ht# of the @ournal %thics, 6olicy V %n"ironment and Cice 6resident of the &nternational Society for %n"ironmental %thics. Fis primary area of research focus is en"ironmental ethics, thou h he maintains acti"e interests in a wide ran e of ethical topics. For a time he was )lo in a)out these and other issues re ardin ethics, policy, and the en"ironment at http://cruelmistress.wordpress.com thou h he has ta*en a )rief )lo in hiatus to focus on other research., 'J'+%'%<A:B% +%SJG+C%S A'M ?F% &'%C&?A:&B&?E JF JG?CJ$%Sk, http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/pu)lication!files/.>--..3.pdf#
& ar ue in this paper that the release of climate-altering C<$ into the atmosphere is -est nderstood as temporall" inevita-le2 at least from the standpoint of moral theor"% Namel"2 ; reason that2 in the a-sence of alternative energ" technologies and ro- st glo-al remediation strategies2 h man activit" is headed to#ard the same end( the complete exha stion of fossil f el reso rces. &n turn, as these fuels are used, the near certain o tcome is that car-on2 other#ise deepl" se: estered in roc! and sediment at the -ottom of the car-on c"cle2 #ill enter the atmosphere and the terrestrial -iosphere. ?he current climate crisis is therefore only partially characteri;ed )y each of the a)o"e factorsIran in from the consumption of nonrene#a-le reso rces to the emission and s -se: ent acc m lation of car-on concentrations in the atmosphere7- t these factors ta!en together nderc t harms--ased conservation arg ments aimed at mitigating climate change% ,his2 ; -elieve2 has implications for the ethical and political frame#or! appropriate to address the climate challenge
Affirmative
Uni: eness Ans#ers
U%S% ;nfl ence 'igh >eneric

U%S% ,ies #ith Latin America are high no# and are expected to rise% ?im 4adgett 3:.> am $on $ay .S, $81A ?im 6ad ett is <B+'0$iami Ferald 'ews' Americas
correspondent co"erin Batin America and the Cari))ean from $iami. Fe has co"ered Batin America for almost .H years<B+'.com <hy China &s :ehind Fresh G.S. $o"es &n Batin America http://wlrn.or /post/why0china0)ehind0 fresh0us0mo"es0latin0america
G.S. Cice 6resident 7oe :iden will "isit Colom)ia, :ra;il, ?rinidad and ?o)a o ne9t wee*. 6resident J)ama already swun throu h $e9ico and Costa +ica this month and ne9t month J)ama will host the presidents of Chile and 6eru at the <hite Fouse.Fas the J)ama Administration finally disco"ered Batin America and the Cari))eanR After a first term mar*ed lar ely )y indifference to the re ion, is the G.S. poised for what :iden is callin the most acti"e stretch of hi h0le"el en a ement on Batin America in a lon , lon time 00 one that could also )e a )oon to $iami1s economyR &f so, there1s pro)a)ly one word that sums up <ashin ton1s sudden interest in the world to the south, and it1s located in the far east: China. $a*e no mista*e, the G.S. is still Batin America1s chief tradin partner. &n fact, total commerce )etween the two hit a record trillion dollars last year. Still, after a decade of economic )oom in Batin America, G.S. influence in the western hemisphere is in serious decline 00 and China, the G.S.'s )i est economic ri"al, has )een ea er to fill the "oid.
U%S% ;s increasing its relationship #ith Latin American co ntries% ?im 4adgett 3:.> am $on $ay .S, $81A ?im 6ad ett is <B+'0$iami Ferald
'ews' Americas correspondent co"erin Batin America and the Cari))ean from $iami. Fe has co"ered Batin America for almost .H years<B+'.com <hy China &s :ehind Fresh G.S. $o"es &n Batin America http://wlrn.or /post/why0china0)ehind0 fresh0us0mo"es0latin0america
?he Administration suddenly reali;es there is now an economic power )ro*er element in Batin America, says Christopher Sa)atini, senior director of policy and the Americas Society and Council of the Americas in 'ew Eor*. Colom)ia @ust finished the first year of a free trade a reement with the G.S. 'ow it hopes :iden will announce durin his "isit ne9t wee* that <ashin ton is set to help the South American nation ta*e part in )i er lo)al initiati"es li*e the ?rans06acific 6artnership (?66# and win mem)ership in the e9clusi"e, 6aris0)ased Jr ani;ation for %conomic Cooperation and Me"elopment (J%CM#. A trade and in"estment atherin in $iami :each this month hosted )y the Colom)ian 6roe9port A ency drew a lar er than usual crowd than*s in no small part to the )u;; a)out renewed G.S. outreach to Batin America and the Cari))ean. &f that outreach is really serious 00 and i"en the G.S.Qs disappointin trac* record in its own hemisphere, it1s )etter to ta*e a wait0and0see approach 00 it could mean a )i er role for $iami as the
)usiness ne9us of the Americas. South Florida trade with Batin America is already at record hi hs, toppin ,D> )illion last year. $iami is "ery important, says 7uan Carlos 8on;ale;, 6roe9port1s "ice president for forei n in"estment. &t is a ma@or ateway for the G.S. and Batin America.
China ;nfl ence Lo# >eneric

Chinese soft po#er is lo# Sham-a gh 1A
NMa"id Sham)au h, a professor of political science and international affairs at the 8eor e <ashin ton Gni"ersity and a nonresident senior fellow at the :roo*in s &nstitution, Fallin Jut of Bo"e <ith China, 4/-3/-4, http://www.nytimes.com/.>-4/>4/-=/opinion/fallin 0out0of0lo"e0with0china.htmlP China is )ecomin a world power, it is )e innin to reco ni;e the importance of its lo)al ima e and the need to enhance its soft power. &t is trac!ing p -lic opinion polls worldwide and in"estin hu e amounts into expanding its glo-al c lt ral footprint, external propaganda #or!1 and p -lic diplomac". Unfort natel" for China2 thats not eno gh% <hile poc*ets of positi"e "iews re ardin China can )e found around the world, p -lic opinion s rve"s from the 6ew +esearch Center1s 8lo)al Attitudes 6ro@ect and the ::C reveal that Chinas image ranges -et#een mixed and poor. And the negative vie# is expanding( for almost a decade, %uropean pu)lic opinion toward
'J< that China has )een the most ne ati"e in the world, )ut that is now matched in America and Asia. ?here are li*ewise increasin si ns of strain with +ussia: on the surface, there is considera)le harmony of world"iews and interests, )ut underneath lie lin erin historical suspicions, rowin trade frictions, pro)lems stemmin from +ussia1s military sales to China, immi ration contro"ersies and nascent strate ic competition in Central Asia. China1s reputation has also deteriorated in the $iddle %ast and amon the Ara) Bea ue due to the country1s support for the Syrian and &ranian re imes as well as its persecution of $uslim minorities in far western China, a policy
Chinas image has deteriorated over the past three "ears as a res lt of the flood of Chinese entreprene rs2 its rapacio s extraction of oil and other ra# materials2 aid pro/ects that seem to -enefit Chinese constr ction companies as m ch as recipient co ntries and s pport for nsavor" governments. A similar do#nt rn is apparent in Latin America for the same reasons%
that has also sullied its ima e in Central Asia. %"en in Africa I where relations remain positi"e on the whole I
China ;nfl ence Lo# U%S% ,rade

Chinese trade is nothing compared to the U%S% and not in the topic co ntries <Neil 1$
NShannon, Senior Fellow for Batin America Studies, China1s %conomic +ole in Batin America,->/.D/-., http://)lo s.cfr.or /oneil/.>-./->/.D/chinas0economic0role0in0 latin0america/P ,here is m ch tal! of Chinas escalating economic infl ence in Latin America. . t its #orth loo!ing at #hat has (and hasntG act all" happened in the
three main ways that China interacts with the re ion1s economies: trade, forei n direct in"estment (FM&#, and loans (from state0 owned )an*s#. ?rade is the most "isi)le and important connection. J"er the last se"eral years,
goods flo#ing -ac!
and forth have increased some A8 percent per "ear , )rin in today1s total to rou hly GS,.H> )illion. ,his trade leans in China1s fa"or, with a deficit (nearly all with $e9ico# of nearly GS,->> )illion. <hile si;a)le num)ers, this is still / st a : arter of Latin Americas trade #ith the United States. And it appears to )e le"elin off, su estin that China won1t o"erta*e the Gnited States as the re ion1s primary tradin partner anytime soon . ,his trade is also : ite concentrated. %9ports to China come primarily from :ra;il, Chile, 6eru, and Ar entina, and are mainly raw materials (copper, iron ore, lead, tin, soya, and su ar#. Jf the oods China sends east nearly
half o to $e9icoIa mi9 of consumer oods and capital oods (eLuipment for production#. ?rade with China has e9panded dramatically o"er the past decade. :ut it is worth remem)erin that it )oth started from a low )ase and is une"enly distri)utedI affectin a few countries si nificantly and others "ery little. Chinese forei n direct in"estment has )een the focus of numerous hi h0
5one" flo#ing from China to Latin America has increasedItotalin some ,-> )illion in .>->. Still, this continues to )e less than the GS,.H )illion comin from the Gnited States or the GS,D> )illion from %uropean countries , and is rou hly eLual to GS,-> )illion headin from Batin American countries into their nei h)ors. ,he vast ma/orit" of Chinese f nds head to the Ca"man ;slands and the :ritish Cir in &slandsIs ggesting tax considerations instead of prod ctive investments . ,he mone" that is invested remains heavil" concentrated on raw materials and ener yImostly in :ra;il, and some in 6eru. ?hou h promises continue, so far Chinese 6D; has "et to ma!e a serio s regional mar!% Finally loans are a means of en a in Batin American nations. ?hese ha"e increased to countries such as
le"el state "isits and has )een much touted in the press. Gnited States %9port0&mport :an*. Still,
Cene;uela, :ra;il, and %cuador, nearly all in e9chan e for oil. ?hese tens of )illions of dollars comprise a decent portion of China1s de"elopment loans a)road, and outpace Batin American resources from the <orld :an*, &nter0American Me"elopment :an*, and the
since most co ntries have eas" access to #orld financial mar!ets2 most financing comes thro gh non-governmental so rces. J"erall economic ties are indeed increasin . :ut these trade2 6D;2 and loan n m-ers s ggest the rise is slo#er than either the cheerleaders or na"sa"ers might s ggest. ?he ne9t Luestion is whether these lin*s are ood or )ad for the re ion.
China ;nfl ence Lo# L%A% Distancing

Latin America is distancing from China 6erchen 1$
N$att, China :rief, China0Batin American +elations: ?he %nd of the FoneymoonR, -/-D/-., http://carne ieendowment.or /.>-./>-/-D/china0latin0american0 relations/=.HnP
:ut at the same time,
in some countries and economic sectors in Batin America.
anxieties a-o t expanding economic ties #ith China are rising Even in co ntries that have -enefited the
commodity ties to China, throu h a com)ination of e9ports to China and an inflow of Chinese in"estment,
most from e9pandin

there are worries. Such
anxieties are often -ased on historical patterns of export dependenc" and the tra ma of commodit" -oom-and-- st c"cles that ha"e
afflicted the re ion for well o"er a century. Countries li*e :ra;il that ha"e fou ht to mo"e away from commodity0)ased e9port rowth worry a)out de0industriali;ation and o"er0reliance on demand from a sin le mar*et li*e China. $oreo"er, rising Chinese foreign investment in the re ion1s mineral and a ricultural resources have raised concerns a-o t 0D tch disease1 and its negative impact on Latin American man fact ring exports. (Mutch disease refers to the tendency for a commodity )oom to result in currency inflation, which su)seLuently ma*es non0commodity e9ports less competiti"e#. ,he s rge in investment from China has also -ro ght to the fore local sensitivities a-o t foreign o#nership of agric lt ral land. After a nearly decade0lon period of increasin ly close economic ties )etween China and Batin America, the relationship now stands at a turnin point. ,he hone"moon period )ased on the initial Batin American euphoria o"er e9panded trade and in"estment with China is giving #a" to anxieties. %"en the relati"ely small num)er of South American countries that ha"e )enefited the most from commodities ties with China ha"e lon e9pressed a desire
;nitial hopes for a -roadening of the relationship, includin increased e9ports of Batin American manufactured hu e Chinese mar*et, have largel" -een disappointed%
to mo"e )eyond a narrow Chinese focus on natural resource trade and in"estment.
oods to the
Lin! Ans#ers
No Lin! Competition
Chinas competing #ith Latin America no# 5ont far-'el 1$
NAlfredo $ontufar0Felu is a uest )lo er to AA Jnline. Fis e9pertise is in the analysis of lo)al affairs includin political ris*, emer in mar*ets, international security, ener y security, and Batin American eopolitics as well as $e9ico and China., $e9ico: Batin America1s risin star M%C%$:%+ --, .>-., http://www.americasLuarterly.or /content/me9ico0latin0 america[%.[3>[==s0risin 0starP ?he honeymoon )etween China and Batin America seems to ha"e ended. ?hou h China1s money is still temptin , especially when facin low 8M6 rowth, Latin American governments have (or need to# come to the reali+ation that there is no such thin as an %ast0South fraternity. ?he Chinese government has its o#n particular interests and its actions are eared to fulfill them. As Carne ie %ndowment1s <ei Fon 9ia e9plained in a recent panel, Chinas agenda #ith Latin America, more than anythin , responds to its domestic dynamics. ,his is precisely #h" 5exico is in a comparati"ely -etter position than .ra+il, and why it has the potential to )ecome Batin America1s lar est economy. For one, 5exico #as pro)a)ly the one Batin American co ntr" for #hom the expansion of Chinas presence in the hemisphere #as not a hone"moon2 - t a nightmare mar!ed -" -itter competition. After ainin admittance to the <?J in .>>-,
China Luic*ly o"ertoo* $e9ico as the G.S.1s second0lar est tradin partner. Accordin to a :arclays report, $e9ican manufacturers e9perienced their lar est contraction of the pre0Behman crisis period. ?o et a )etter sense of these num)ers, consider that from 7anuary to Jcto)er .>-., a)out S3 percent of $e9ico1s total non0oil e9ports were sent to the Gnited States. &n .>>/, it amounted to 3= percent of such e9ports. 'ow, 8alla her and 6or;ecans*i find that, from .>>> to .>>D, o"er 3> percent of $e9ican non0oil e9ports to the G.S. faced a direct or partial threat from Chinese competition. $e9ico lost mar*et share in -- of its top0.> e9ports to the G.S. and only ained in two products. $eanwhile, China ained mar*et share in -3 of the .> sectors most important for $e9ico1s e9port industry. $e9ico also started e9periencin a drop in its oil production in .>>H, which, fortunately, was offset )y an increase in
,he onl" #a" to compete #ith China #as to -ecome more prod ctive and innovative% As the G.S. and $e9ican economies ha"e started reco"erin , it has -ecome clear that 5exican man fact rers have started regaining their position #ithin the American mar!et . Exports have -een going p2 contri- ting to a A%P percent >D4 gro#th2 higher than other developing co ntries and the United States . Accordin to the :arclay1s report, $e9ico1s producti"ity rew -..3 percent from .>>= to .>-., due in part to hi her capital per wor*er. &n other words, 5exican man fact rers have -ecome more competitive% $eanwhile, the <orld %conomic Forum (<%F#
international oil prices. :ut it was still clear that somethin needed to )e done. raised $e9ico -4 positions in its competiti"eness ran*in s from .>-> to .>-..
No Lin! ,h mper >eneric

U%S% shifting emphasis to economics no# triggers the lin! Shear and Archi-old 1A
N$ichael and +andal, 'ew Eor* ?imes, &n Batin America, G.S. Focus Shifts From Mru <ar to %conomy, H///-4, http://www.nytimes.com/.>-4/>H/>H/world/americas/in0 latin0america0us0shifts0focus0from0dru 0war0to0economy.htmlR pa ewanted\allV!r\>P <-ama ret rned to capitals in Latin America #ith a "astly different message. 3elationships with countries rac*ed )y dru "iolence and or ani;ed crime sho ld foc s more on economic development and less on the endless )attles a ainst dru traffic*ers and or ani;ed crime capos that ha"e left few clear "ictors. ,he co ntries, $e9ico in particular, need to set their o#n co rse on sec rit", with the Gnited States playin more of a )ac*in role. ?hat approach runs the ris* of )ein seen as *owtowin to o"ernments more concerned a)out their pu)lic ima e than the underlyin pro)lems tarnishin it. 5exico, #hich is eager to pla" p its economic gro#th2 has mo nted an aggressive effort to pla" do#n its crime pro-lems, oin as far as to encoura e the news media to a"oid certain slan words in
Bast wee*, $r. reports. ?he pro)lem will not @ust o away, said $ichael Shifter, president of the &nter0American Mialo ue. &t needs to )e tac*led head0on, with a comprehensi"e strate y that includes )ut oes )eyond stimulatin economic rowth and alle"iatin po"erty. J)ama )ecomes "ulnera)le to the char e of downplayin the re ion1s o"erridin issue, and the chief o)stacle to economic pro ress, he added. &t is fine the reality on the round
to change the narrative from sec rit" to economics as lon reflects and fits #ith the ne# stor" line%1
as
No Lin! ,h mper *ene+ ela
U%S% ;s c rrentl" trading #ith *ene+ ela

. rea of &estern 'emisphere Affairs 7anuary -S, $81A Fact Sheet G.S. Mepartment of State.com Miplomacy in Action G.S. +elations <ith Cene;uela :ilateral %conomic +elations http(DD###%state%govDrDpaDeiD-gnDAF@EE%htm ,he United States is *ene+ elaMs most important trading partner% U%S% exports to *ene+ ela incl de machiner"2 organic chemicals2 agric lt ral prod cts2 optical and medical instr ments2 a tos and a to parts% <il dominates U%S% imports from *ene+ ela2 #hich is one of the top fo r s ppliers of foreign oil to the United States% A-o t F88 U%S% companies are represented in *ene+ ela% U%S% foreign direct investment in *ene+ ela is concentrated largel" in the petrole m2 man fact ring2 and finance sectors%
No Lin! ,h mper 5exico

U%S% ;s c rrentl" trading #ith 5exico
Miana Cilliers Negroponte $ay ., $81A =:>>am Formerly a trade lawyer and professor of history, nonresident senior fellow with the Batin America &nitiati"e under Forei n 6olicy at :roo*in s focuses on Batin America and researches and writes a)out the 'ew Beft, populism and the relationship )etween criminal an s and state institutions. :roo*in s.com Gp Front J)ama1s $e9ico ?rip: 6uttin ?rade and &n"estment at the ?op of the A enda http://www.)roo*in s.edu/)lo s/up0front/posts/.>-4/>H/>.0o)ama0me9ico0 trip0trade0in"estment0ne roponte &e agree that exports to 5exico -oth maintain and create /o-s in the United States% ?he G.S. o"ernment estimates that each additional )illion dollars in new e9ports supports more than D,>>> new @o)s. According to the U%S% Cham-er of Commerce2 almost E million U%S% /o-s rel" on trade #ith 5exico2 the conse: ence of #hich is the potential creation of 18@2888 ne# U%S% Jo-s. 6 rthermore2 individ al states -enefit from exports to 5exico s ch as Ari+ona2 California and ,exas #hich hold 5exico as their main export destination% 5exico is also the second destination for exports from $8 other states and is ran!ed among the top five export destinations for AK states% ;nvestment flo#s are also m t all" -eneficial% According to the U%S% ,rade 3epresentatives office2 sales of services in 5exico -" ma/orit" U%S% o#ned affiliates #ere QAK%K -illion in $818% Sales of services in the United States -" ma/orit" 5exico-o#ned firms #ere QK%P -illion% According to the U%S% Em-ass" in 5exico2 the United States c rrentl" provides K1 percent of all foreign direct investment in 5exico2 -enefiting more than $121AH companies. .e"ond the n m-ers2 the realit" of trade and investment is that the United States and 5exico compete together in the glo-al econom"% 4rod ction and s ppl" chains in North America are deepl" integrated #ith the U%S% content of 5exico exports to the United States estimated at K8 cents on the dollar% ?his compares to .H cents for Canadian e9ports to the Gnited States and / cents for China and . cents for the %uropean Gnion, accordin to a <ilson Center report. &n short, there e9ists a rowin inte rated manufacturin platform that ta*es ad"anta e of eo raphy, time ;ones and cultural affinity.
No Lin! Not Rero S m

Not Rero-S m m t al -enefits Iiaoxia 1A
L&ang2 Economic <-serverD&orldcr nch2 FDED1A2 ;N A5E3;CAMS .AC?=A3D( C';NAMS 3;S;N> ;N6LUENCE ;N LA,;N A5E3;CA2 http(DD###%#orldcr nch%comDchina-$%8Din-america-8AH-s--ac!"ard-china8AH-s-rising-infl ence-in-latin-americaDforeign-polic"-trade-econom"investments-energ"DcHs11EK@DN ChinaMs involvement in the Latin American continent doesnt constit te a threat to the United States, )ut )rin s )enefits. &t is precisely )ecause China has reached Yloans0for0oilY swap a reements with Cene;uela, :ra;il, %cuador and other countries that it )rin s much0needed funds to these oil0producin countries in South America. 'ot only ha"e these funds )een used in the field of oil production, )ut they ha"e also safe uarded the ener y supply of the Gnited States, as well as sta)ili;ed these countries' li"elihood 00 and to a certain e9tent reduced the impact of ille al immi ration and the dru trade on the G.S. 6or So th America2 China and the United States2 this is not a +ero-s m game, - t a m ltiple choice of m t al -enefits and s"nergies. %ven if China has -ecome the Latin American econom"s ne# pstart2 it is still not in a position to challenge the strong and diverse infl ence that the United States has acc m lated over t#o cent ries in the region%
;nfl ence is not a +ero s m game >lo-al ,imes 1A (an %n lish0lan ua e Chinese newspaper under the 6eople's Maily., China,
GS not competin o"er Batin America: e9pert, http://www. lo)altimes.cn/content/S3HS.-.shtmle.GeCeo&-JSFs#
Chinese 6resident Wi Jinping heads to Latin America and the Cari))ean on Friday, in a state "isit aiming at promoting ChinaMs cooperation #ith the region%5 Wi's "isit to ?rinidad and ?o)a o, Costa +ica and $e9ico follows his first forei n trip to +ussia and three countries in Africa, ?an;ania, South Africa and +epu)lic of Con o, shortly after ta*in office in $arch. 5 <hile Wi *ic*s off his "isit, GS Cice 6resident 7oe :iden is concludin his Batin America "isit on the same day, as he lea"es :ra;il Friday. Some media reports descri-ed Od eling visitsO -" Chinese and US leaders, and said that the Ocompetition -et#een the #orldMs t#o -iggest economies for infl ence in Latin America is on displa" .Y5 .oth the US and China den" the" are competing #ith each other. Chinese forei n ministry spo*esperson Fon Bei said last wee* that the two countries can Ycarry out cooperation in Batin America )y i"in play to their respecti"e ad"anta es.Y 5 ?ao <en;hao, a fellow of the &nstitute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the 8lo)al ?imes that it is a coincidence that the two leaders chose to "isit Batin America at a similar time, and that China has no intention to challenge US infl ence in the area%) O;tMs not li!e in the 1Hth cent r" #hen co ntries divided their sphere of infl ence in a certain area% China and the USM involvement in Latin America is not a +ero-s m game2 Y ?ao said, e9plainin that it is a ood thin for Batin America. 5 Chinese and GS leaders "isit Batin America out of their respecti"e strate ic needs, ?ao said. All co ntries need
to interact and cooperate #ith other co ntries, and "isits of such hi h0le"el are usually arran ed lon time )efore they starts, ?ao said. 5 China has em)ar*ed on a diplomatic dri"e since completin its once0in0a0decade leadership transition with Chinese 6remier Bi (eLian also "isitin &ndia, 6a*istan, Swit;erland and 8ermany, and se"eral hi h0le"el "isitors to :ei@in . After "isitin $e9ico, Wi tra"els to the GS for his first summit with 6resident :arac* J)ama on 7une S to 3 in California.
No Lin! China ;nfl ence 6ails
Chinese investment in Latin America #ill not -e s ccessf l C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic
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,he visit of Chinese 4resident ' Jintao to several Latin ) American co ntries in Novem-er $88K raised expectations of a ) s -stantial increase in Chinese investment in the region in ) coming "ears . Murin a speech to the :ra;ilian Con ress, ' ) stated that China #o ld invest Q188 -illion in Latin America ) over the next 18 "ears% ;n Argentina alone2 he said China #o ld ) invest Q$8 -illion in the next decade% Latin American nations ) #elcomed the increase in foreign capital that the Chinese #ere ) promising2 especiall" since the region #as experiencing a sl mp ) in attracting 6D;. Amon the in"estment pled es hi hli hted in 5 the press durin 6resident Fu's trip to Batin America were: 5 railway, oil e9ploration, and construction pro@ects in 5 Ar entina2 a nic*el plant and oil and as e9ploration in Cu)a2 5 copper minin pro@ects in Chile2 a steel mill, railway, and oil 5 e9ploration pro@ects in :ra;il2 and oil and as e9ploration 5 pro@ects in %cuador, :oli"ia, and Colom)ia. 5 Chinese promises of such hi h le"els of in"estment in the 5 re ion ha"e not yet materiali;ed, and li*ely will total far 5 less than the promised ,->> )illion )y .>-/% 5an" of the ) planned pro/ects have not gone for#ard% At least one Chinese ) official speciali+ing in Latin America maintains that the Q188 ) -illion referred to -ilateral trade2 not investment%\K8\ ) According to some o-servers2 ChinaMs inexperience in investment ) a-road2 its lac! of information a-o t - siness in Latin ) America2 and concerns a-o t the ris!s of investing in the ) region all com-ined have limited ChinaMs investment in the ) region%\K1\
;mpact Ans#ers
China ;nfl ence .ad 'eg

Chinese infl ence in Latin America is a litm s test for po#er glo-all" ndermines 'egemon" Cerna 11
N$ichael, China +esearch Center, China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G.S. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion, //-H/--, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P
<ith )oth the G.S. and China ma*in ains in the re ion in different sectors, there is seemin ly room for each side to row2 which implies that, in fact, trade with Batin America is not a ;ero0sum ame.
China presents an alternative to
the United States, )ut that is not necessarily a )ad thin

in"estments,
. ?he G.S. is much more di"ersified than China at the moment and therefore does not need to enter into direct competition. Fowe"er, as China responds to calls from :ra;il and di"ersifies its
there is increasing #orr" that China is going to o tmatch U%S% trade in the re ion. ,hese fears ma" -e economicall" -ased2 - t there are potentially harmf l political conse: ences O primarily, providing Latin America #ith a : asi-#orld po#er as an alternative to the U%S% Since the $onroe Moctrine, Batin America has )een considered a secure sphere of influence for the G.S. ?he fact that China presents a less democratic alternati"e to G.S. influence presents a ma@or pro)lem . ?he third :+&CS summit in April pro"ided
more insi ht into the potential conseLuences of China1s rowin place in Batin America "ia its relations with :ra;il. Jne proposal to emer e from the summit of the fi"e nations (:ra;il, &ndia, China, +ussia and South Africa# was a )road0)ased international reser"e currency system pro"idin sta)ility and certainty. ?he idea was to set up a new e9chan e rate mechanism that would )ypass the G.S. dollar as the reser"e currency of the world. &n addition, )an*s of the fi"e :+&CS nations a reed to esta)lish mutual credit lines in their local currencies, not in G.S. currency. <hile the chances of such a proposal ainin support are de)ata)le,
it sets a clear example of a possi-le shift in po#er a#a" from the U%S% and to#ard a more glo-al organi+ation, one that is ar ua)ly anchored -" China% ;f China -ecomes a preferred partner in Latin America2 it #ill sho# that U%S% dominance aro nd the glo-e also is at ris!% So what does China1s rowin place in the re ion mean for the futureR Mependin on whom this Luestion is posed to, there are two pro)a)le answers. ?he first is that Chinas intensif"ing relations #ith Latin America offer a clear sign of the end of U%S% dominance in the region2 and in a greater sense2 the entire #orld. ,here is eno gh evidence to sho# that the tides have changed in favor of China% ?he
other answer is that it means nothin . ?he G.S. is o)"iously still the more dominant power in the re ion, and Chinese presence will e"entually su)side, a ain lea"in the Gnited States as the re ion1s premier partner. ?he real answer pro)a)ly falls somewhere in the middle. &s China the preferred partner for Batin AmericaR At this point, the definiti"e answer is no. Fowe"er,
the United States sho ld not ta!e its place in the region for granted. ,here is clear evidence of an increasin ly sym)iotic relationship with China throu hout Batin America% <hile the U%S% is the most dominant trade partner to the re ion as a whole, it is losing gro nd in !e" co ntries, namely :ra;il, which is )lossomin on the world sta e and is emer in as the clear leader in the re ion. &ncreasin trade and in"estment can )e )eneficial for all, )ut the power that China can deri"e from its rowin economic influence could )rin increased political and ideolo ical influence that the G.S. mi ht find unner"in . China already has replaced the G.S. as the lar est tradin partner for :ra;il and Chile, and is on pace to do the same in 6eru and Cene;uela. At the "ery least, this sho ld ca se the U%S% to pa" more attention to its so thern neigh-ors and ta!e steps to ma!e s re that China onl" -enefits economicall" and not politicall" at the expense of the U%S% ,he #orld #ill -e #atching. As it stands, the Chinese are not )roadenin
their relations with the re ion in a way that directly competes with the Gnited States. China is strictly concerned with commodities, includin oil. G.S. 6resident :arac* J)ama recently si ned an a reement with :ra;il1s 6etro)ras that will allow the oil company to drill in the 8ulf of $e9ico.
,his s"m-olic move co ld ca se tensions to increase as the #orlds t#o largest oil cons mers -attle o"er ri hts to :ra;ilian oil. &n that re ard, the competition ma" go -e"ond a race to Latin commodities and move into the
realm of fighting for political infl ence% &t is odd to thin* that the Gnited States would need to compete for hemispheric dominance with a country on the other side of the lo)e, )ut Chinas actions and increasing integration into the region tell s that s ch a scenario ma" one da" arise% >iven the proximit" and importance of Latin America to the United States2 this region co ld -e the s"m-olic -attle that -est meas res the contin ed hegemon" of the U%S% vers s China%
US primac" prevents glo-al conflict #ithdra#l ca ses a po#er vacc m that ca ses transition #ars in m ltiple places .roo!s et al 1A NStephen 8. :roo*s is Associate 6rofessor of 8o"ernment at
Martmouth Colle e.8. 7ohn &*en)erry is the Al)ert 8. $il)an* 6rofessor of 6olitics and &nternational Affairs at 6rinceton Gni"ersity in the Mepartment of 6olitics and the <oodrow <ilson School of 6u)lic and &nternational Affairs. Fe is also a 8lo)al %minence Scholar at (yun Fee Gni"ersity.<illiam C. <ohlforth is the Maniel <e)ster 6rofessor in the Mepartment of 8o"ernment at Martmouth Colle e. Mon't Come Fome, America: ?he Case a ainst +etrenchment, <inter .>-4, Col. 4S, 'o. 4, 6a es S0H-,http://www.mitpress@ournals.or /doi/a)s/->.--D./&S%C!a!>>->SP engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far dangero s lo)al sec rit" environment. For one thin , as noted a)o"e, the Gnited States1 o"erseas presence i"es it the le"era e to restrain partners from ta*in pro"ocati"e action. 6erhaps more important, its core alliance commitments also deter states with aspirations to re
A core premise of deep more
ional he emony from contemplatin e9pansion and ma*e its partners more secure, reducin their incenti"e to adopt solutions to their security pro)lems that threaten others and thus sto*e security dilemmas. ?he contention that en a ed G.S. power dampens the )aleful effects of anarchy is consistent with influential "ariants of realist theory. &ndeed, ar ua)ly the scariest portrayal of the war0prone world that would emer e a)sent the American 6acifier is pro"ided in the wor*s of 7ohn $earsheimer, who forecasts dan erous multipolar re ions replete with security competition, arms races, nuclear proliferation and associated pre"enti"e wartemptations, re ional ri"alries, and e"en runs at re ional he emony and full0scale reat power war. S. Fow do retrenchment ad"ocates, the )ul* of whom are realists, discount this )enefitR ?heir ar uments are complicated, )ut two capture most of the "ariation: (-# G.S. security uarantees are not necessary to pre"ent dan erous ri"alries and conflict in %urasia2 or (.# pre"ention of ri"alry and conflict in %urasia is not a G.S. interest. %ach response is connected to a different theory or set of theories, which ma*es sense i"en that the whole de)ate hin es on a comple9 future counterfactual (what would happen to %urasia1s security settin if the Gnited States truly disen a edR#. Althou h a certain answer is impossi)le, each of these responses is nonetheless a wea*er ar ument for retrenchment than ad"ocates ac*nowled e. ?he first response flows from defensi"e realism as well as other international relations theories that discount the conflict0 eneratin potential of anarchy under contemporary conditions. S4 Mefensi"e realists maintain that the hi h e9pected costs of territorial conLuest, defense dominance, and an array of policies and practices that can )e used credi)ly to si nal )eni n intent, mean that %urasia1s ma@or states could mana e re ional multipolarity peacefully without theAmerican pacifier. +etrenchment would )e a )et on this scholarship, particularly in re ions where the *inds of sta)ili;ers that nonrealist theories point toIsuch as democratic o"ernance or dense institutional lin*a esIare either a)sent or wea*ly present. ?here are three other ma@or )odies of scholarship, howe"er, that mi ht i"e decisionma*ers pause )efore ma*in this )et. First is re ional e9pertise. 'eedless to say, there is no consensus on the net security effects of G.S. withdrawal. +e ardin each re ion, there are optimists and pessimists. Few e9perts e9pect a return of intense reat power competition in a post0 American %urope, )ut many dou)t %uropean o"ernments will pay the political costs of increased %G defense cooperation and the )ud etary costs of
E rope that is incapa-le of sec ring itself from "arious threats that could )e desta)ili;in within the re ion and )eyond (e. ., a re ional
increasin military outlays. S/ ?he result mi ht )e a conflict a*in to the -==>s :al*an wars#, lac*s capacity for lo)al security missions in which G.S. leaders mi ht want %uropean participation, and is "ulnera)le to the influence of outside risin powers.
<hat a)out the other parts of %urasia where the United States has a s -stantial militar" presenceR 3egarding the 5iddle East, the )alance )e ins toswin toward pessimists concerned that states currently )ac*ed )y <ashin tonI nota)ly ;srael2 Eg"pt2 and Sa di Ara-iaImight ta*e actions upon G.S. retrenchment that would intensif" sec rit" dilemmas. And concernin East Asia2 pessimismre ardin the re ion1s prospects without the American pacifier is prono nced. Ar ua)ly the principal concern e9pressed )y area e9perts is that 7apan and So th ?orea are li!el" to o-tain a n clear capacit" and increase their military commitments, which could sto!e a desta-ili+ing reaction from China. &t is nota)le that durin the Cold <ar, )oth South (orea and ?aiwan mo"ed to
o)tain a nuclear weapons capacity and were only constrained from doin so )y astill0en a ed Gnited States. SH ?he second )ody of scholarship castin dou)t on the )et on defensi"e realism1s san uine portrayal is all of the research that undermines its conception of state preferences. Mefensi"e realism1s optimism a)out what would happen if the Gnited States retrenched is "ery much dependent on itsparticularIand hi hly restricti"eI assumption a)out state preferences2 once we rela9 this assumption, then much of its )asis for optimism "anishes. Specifically, the prediction of post0 American tranLuility throu hout %urasia rests on the assumption that security is the only rele"ant state preference, with security defined narrowly in terms of protection from "iolent e9ternal attac*s on the homeland. Gnder that assumption, the security pro)lem is lar ely sol"ed as soon as offense and defense are clearly distin uisha)le, and offense is e9tremely e9pensi"e relati"e to defense. :ur eonin
research
across the social and other sciences, howe"er, ndermines
that core ass mption: states have preferences not only for security )ut also for prestige2 stat s2 and other aims, and theyengage in trade-offs amon the "arious o)@ecti"es. SD &n addition, they define security not @ust in terms of territorial protection )ut in "iew of many and "aried milieu oals. &t follows that e"en states that are relati"ely sec re may ne"ertheless engage in hi hly competitive -ehavior. %mpirical studies show that this is indeed sometimes the case. SS &n sum, a )et on a )eni n
postretrenchment %urasia is a )et that leaders of ma@or countries will ne"er allow these nonsecurity preferences to influence their strate ic choices. ?o the de ree that these )odies of scholarly *nowled e ha"e predicti"e le"era e,
G.S. retrenchment #o ld res lt in a si nificant deterioration in the sec rit" environment in at least some of the world1s !e" regions. <e ha"e already mentioned the third, e"en more alarmin )ody of scholarship. Jffensi"e realism predicts thatthe #ithdra#al of the American pacifier #ill "ield either a competiti"e re ional multipolarity complete #ith associated insecurity, arms racin , crisis insta)ility, nuclear proliferation 2 and the li*e, or )ids for re ional he emony, which may )e -e"ond the capacit" of local reat po#ers to contain (and which in any case would enerate intensely competiti"e )eha"ior, possi)ly incl ding re ional reat power war#.
Ext China ;nfl ence ?ills 'eg

Latin America is critical for U%S% dominance glo-all" Sa-atini and .erger 1$
NChristopher Sa)atini is the editor0in0chief of Americas Auarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. +yan :er er is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. ?he "iews in this article are solely those of Christopher Sa)atini and +yan :er er, <hy the G.S. can't afford to i nore Batin America, 7une .>-., http:// lo)alpu)licsLuare.)lo s.cnn.com/.>-./>D/-4/why0the0u0s0cant0afford0to0 i nore0latin0america/P <-ama called Latin America 0a region on the move21 one that is 0more important to the prosperity and security of the Gnited States than e"er )efore%1 Some)ody for ot to tell the <ashin ton )rain trust. ?he Center for a 'ew American
Spea*in in Santia o, Chile, in $arch of last year, 6resident Security, a respected national security thin* tan* a half0mile from the <hite Fouse, recently released a new series of policy recommendations for the ne9t presidential administration. ?he S>0pa e rand strate y report only contained a short para raph on :ra;il and made only one passin reference to Batin America. Ees, we et it. ?he relati"e calm south of the Gnited States seems to pale in comparison to other de"elopments in the world: China on a seemin ly ine"ita)le path to )ecomin a lo)al economic powerhouse, the potential of political chan e in the $iddle %ast, the feared dismem)erment of the euro;one, and ro ue states li*e
the need to shore p o r allies and recogni+e legitimate threats so th of the 3io >rande goes to the heart of the U%S% changing role in the #orld and its strategic interests #ithin it% Fere are three reasons why the U%S% m st incl de Latin America in its strategic calc lations: -. ?oday, p rs ing a glo-al foreign polic" re: ires regional allies% +ecently, co ntries #ith emerging economies have appeared to -e ta!ing positions diametricall" opposed to the U%S% #hen it comes to matters of glo-al governance and h man rights. ?a*e, for e9ample, +ussia and China1s stance on Syria, re@ectin
&ran and 'orth (orea flauntin international norms and re ional sta)ility. :ut calls for inter"ention. Another one of the :+&CS, :ra;il, tried to sta"e off the ti htenin of G.'. sanctions on &ran two years a o. And last year, :ra;il also "oiced its official opposition to inter"ention in Bi)ya, leadin political scientist +andall Schweller to refer to :ra;il as a risin spoiler.
At a time of CperceivedG declining U%S% infl ence 2 its important that America deepens its ties #ith regional allies that might have -een once ta!en for granted% As emer in nations such as :ra;il clamor for permanent seats on the G.'. Security Council and more representati"es in the hi her reaches of the <orld :an* and the &nternational $onetary Fund, the U%S% #ill need to integrate them into glo-al decision-ma!ing rather than isolate them. &f not, the" co ld -e a thorn in the side of the U%S% as it tries to implement its foreign polic" agenda. <orse, the" co ld threaten to ndermine efforts to defend international norms and human ri hts. .. Batin America is )ecomin more international. &t1s time to understand that the U%S% isnt the onl" co ntr" that has clo t in Latin America. For far too lon , G.S. officials and Batin America e9perts ha"e tended to treat the re ion as separate,
politically and strate ically, from the rest of the world. :ut as they1"e fou ht )attles o"er small countries such as Cu)a and
other countries li*e China and &ndia ha"e increased their economic presence and political influence in the re ion . &t1s
Fonduras and narrow )ore issues such as the G.S.0Colom)ia free0trade a reement, also clear that countries such as :ra;il and Cene;uela present their own challen es to G.S. influence in the re ion and e"en on the world forum.
,he U%S% m st em-ed its Latin America relations in the concept al frame#or! and strateg" that it has for the rest of the #orld , rather than @ust focus on human ri hts and de"elopment as it often does toward southern nei h)ors such as Cu)a. 4. ,here are sec rit" and strategic ris!s in the region. Fu o Cha"e;1s systematic deconstruction of the Cene;uelan state and alle ed
ties )etween FA+C re)els and some of Cha"e;1s senior officials ha"e created a "olatile coc*tail that could e9plode south of the G.S.
6A3C, a left0win uerrilla roup )ased in Colom)ia, has -een designated as a 0significant foreign narcotics traffic!er )y the G.S. o"ernment. At the same time, an s, narcotics traffic*ers and
)order. transnational criminal syndicates are o"errunnin Central America. &n .>>D, $e9ican 6resident Felipe Calderln launched a contro"ersial war on dru s that has since resulted in the loss of o"er H>,>>> li"es and increased the le"els of "iolence and
corruption south of the $e9ican )order in 8uatemala, %l Sal"ador, Fonduras and e"en once0peaceful Costa +ica. &ncreasin ly, these already0wea!
states are finding themselves over#helmed -" the corr ption and violence that has come #ith the se of their territor" as a transit point for dr gs heading north% >iven their proximit" and close historical and political connections #ith &ashington2 the U%S% #ill find it increasingl" diffic lt not to -e dra#n in% Jnly this case, it won1t )e with or a ainst o"ernments I as it was in the -=3>s I )ut in the far more comple9, stic*y situation of failed states. ,here are man" other reasons #h" Latin America is important to U%S% interests% ;t is a mar!et for more than $8_ of U%S% exports% <ith the nota)le e9ception of Cu)a, it is nearly entirely o"erned )y democratically elected o"ernments I a point that ets repeated ad nauseum at e"ery possi)le re ional meetin . ,he &estern 'emisphere is a ma/or so rce of energ" that has the highest potential to serio sl" red ce dependence on 5iddle East s ppl". And throu h immi ration, Batin America has close personal and cultural ties to the Gnited States. ?hese ha"e )een )oilerplate tal*in points since the early -==>s. :ut the demands of the glo-e toda" are different, and they #arrant a rene#ed engagement #ith Latin America I a strategic pivot point for initiatives the U%S% #ants to accomplish else#here% <e need to stop thin*in of Batin America as the G.S. )ac*yard that is outside )roader,
lo)al strate ic concerns.
4o#er is +ero- s m Chinese infl ence destro"s American po#er Latif $88@ (Asad, writer for ?he Straits ?imes, A hard loo* at China's soft
power, Au ust --.# ?he way .ei/ing #o ld mo nt the challenge is not )y employin its military mi ht a ainst <ashin ton, )ut -" sing its economic strengths to spread across the #orld its soft po#er: the a)ility to mould the preferences of other countries without the threat or use of force. 5 Far"ard academic 7oseph 'ye
coined the term 'soft power' more than a decade a o to denote a country's 'a)ility to shape the preferences of others', lead )y e9ample and attract other countries to do what it wants. 5 &n optin for the e9ercise of soft power, China is doin no more than what the GS itself has done since the end of <orld <ar &&: use its soft power to try to@ create a world to its li*in . ?hat world "anished
the Chinese have fo nd an opening in a #orld #here American soft po#er is #aning in the aftermath of the in"asion and occupation of ;ra:, amon other factors, says $r (urlant;ic*, a "isitin scholar at the Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace in <ashin ton.5 ?his )oo* pro"ides a "alua)le account of how China is creating -inding relationships #ith co ntries in regions as diverse as So th-east Asia2 Latin America and Africa. &t a"ers that China 'has )e un creating an alternative pole to &estern democracies in international organisations and glo-al diplomac"M% ) ,he direction of China's diplomatic drive is visi-le over issues such as ;ran and North ?orea2 #here it is assem-ling a -loc that ref ses to o alon with the &estern approach to n clear proliferation.5 &ndeed, i"en China's soft power, some Asian, Latin American and African nations are M sing .ei/ing as a hedge against American po#erM . &f this trend continues, China co ld MprodM co ntries s ch as the 4hilippines or ,hailand , which are already employin it as a hed e, to do#ngrade their close ties #ith the US .5 :ei@in could also
when the Cold <ar ended in the -==>s.5 'ow, pressure Asian capitals not to inter"ene if the GS and China went to war o"er ?aiwan. 5 Are such scenarios e9a (urlant;ic*'s analysis su ests not, i"en the solid )ases of China's unfoldin soft power. 5 For e9ample,
nli!e the US2 ChinaMs lang age of non-intervention in the affairs of other co ntries is MsoothingM to international ears. &ndeed, in the free-trade agreements that it is p rs ing #ith co ntries from Chile to Ne# Realand2 .ei/ing is caref l not to ma!e its trade conditional on how well its partners li"e up to political, en"ironmental or la)our standards. $ost countries welcome the non0conditional nature of their relationship with the world's foremost risin power. 5 .ei/ing is also ta*in a *een interest in multilateral or anisations, and is portra"ing itself as a leader of the ,hird &orld. &t is usin its economic clout not so much to ma*e money from its partners, )ut to i"e its nei h)ours 0 from
$on olia to Cietnam 0 a sta*e in its rise. 5 ?hen, the Chinese diaspora, many of whose mem)ers ha"e )enefited tremendously from China's de"elopment, is
eratedR $r
repa"ing its d es -" helping it to -oost its relations #ith
co ntries #here the Chinese are settled%) Slo#l" - t s rel"2 .ei/ing is la"ing the gro nds on #hich to s pplant American po#er event all"
Chinese encroachment harms U%S% interests Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er,
$assachusetts. Bi has pu)lished do;ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies, 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism, ?he Fistorian, 6olicy Studies 7ournal, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science, Asian 6erspecti"e, American 7ournal of Chinese Studies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e, ->0-0$88F N+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep.>>H, Col. -> &ssue ., pSS, http://lin*.sprin er.com/content/pdf/->.->>S/:F>.3SS>.=.pdf, s)ha P ``N<,E( 9V the regionV is in reference to Latin America As a matter of fact, some would ar ue that, today, China is no lon er a risin powerI)ut a risen power. HH &n a sense, the emergence of a ne# great po#er in an important region co ld intrinsicall" harm U%S% interests2 since relative American po#er and infl ence in that region might proportionatel" decline nless the United States expends more efforts and reso rces to co nteract the ne# pla"er. ?he de ree to which increased Chinese power mi ht endan er G.S. interests could "ary reatly dependin on how :ei@in see*s to employ this power. An adversarial U%S%-China relationship #o ld find .ei/ing sing its gro#ing strength in a p rposef l and s"stematic assa lt on U%S% interests2 as the 43C #o ld tend to vie# U%S% interests as -arriers to the achie"ement of the Chinese goals% ,his scenario #o ld constit te a serio s challenge to U%S% interests2 #ith potential to develop into a ne# Cold &ar. HD
Chinas infl ence in Latin America threatens US infl ence C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic
P2
'e"ertheless, other o)ser"ers contend that China poses a ) potential threat to U%S% infl ence and interests in the region% ) 6irst2 some maintain that -" presenting an alternative ) political and economic model--rapid economic gro#th and ) moderni+ation alongside political a thoritarianism--the 43C ) ndermines the U%S% agenda to advance political reform2 h man ) rights and free trade in the region%\EPi According to this ) vie#2 the Chinese model co ld help strengthen anti-democratic ) and anti-U%S% political
leaders and actors in some co ntries% ) Second2 according to some anal"sts2 ChinaMs regional presence ) ltimatel" co ld have significant strategic implications for ) the United States in the event of a possi-le militar" conflict ) #ith China% ;n this scenario2 China co ld se its h man and ) commercial infrastr ct re in the region to disr pt and distract ) the United States in the hemisphere% According to this vie#2 ) ChinaMs increased presence in the region co ld also provide the ) co ntr" #ith ne# opport nities to collect intelligence data ) against U%S% forces operating in the region%\EH\
China ainin he in completion for Batin America with GS
'ilton2 senior editor of ###%chinadialog e%net2 $81A

(&sa)el, China in Batin America: Fe emonic Challen eR 'J+%F: Fe)ruary .>, .>-4 Jnline: http(DD###%peace- ilding%noDvarDe+flo#asiteDstorageDoriginalDapplicationD$Eff1a8ccAc8-EdFEH$cPaf-c8 FKaadH%pdfG
,he United States is Latin Americas traditional hegemonic po#er2 - t Chinas infl ence in the region is large and gro#ing . How far does Chinas presence in the U%S% -ac!"ard represent a hegemonic challenge ? China is important in the region as a buyer of
Latin American resources, primarily from four countries, an important investor and an exporter of manufactured goods. The impact of China s activities varies in degree from to country. ;n several co ntries local man fact ring has s ffered from cheaper Chinese importsW several co ntries have -enefited from Chinese demand for reso rces2 others from large investments2 and China is having an important impact on the regions infrastr ct re . The ris!s to the region incl de reso rce c rse2 distorted development and environmental degradation due to a country lowering of environmental and social standards. !espite its significant economic presence, China has been careful to "eep a low political and diplomatic profile to avoid antagonising the #.$. and to maintain a benign environment for its economic activities. Chinese support, however, has been important for partners, such as Cuba and %ene&uela, that do not en'oy good relations with the #.$. $o far the two powers have sought cooperation rather than confrontation, but rising tensions with (apan and %ietnam own )ast Asian bac"yard.
U%S% allies co ld have reperc ssions in Latin America if China feels the #.$. is becoming too assertive in its
China #ill se infl ence to challenge the U%S% in the region L.C @ (Batin :usiness Chronicle, http://www.latin)usinesschronicle.com/app/article.asp9Rid\-.=S, China Gndermines G.S. in Batin America2 http://www.latin)usinesschronicle.com/app/article.asp9Rid\-.=S#
,he principal challenge presented -" China in Latin America comes from the #a" in #hich the Chinese presence changes the strategic landscape of the region in #a"s that ma" generate pro-lems or complicating factors for f t re operations%) A n m-er of mem-ers of the tas! force noted that Chinese engagement #ith Latin America is ndermining the spread of democrac" and the U%S% agenda in the region% ?he Chinese model su ests that a society can lift itself out of po"erty usin a model of rowth that is not necessarily democratic. (...#5 Chinese communities and Chinese capital will )ecome increasin ly si nificant in re ional politics. ?he acti"ities of the Chinese firm Andes 6etroleum )ecame the focus of "iolence )y indi enous acti"ists in ?arapoa, @ust as the mana ement practices of Shou an Fierro 6eru )ecame a ma@or political issue for the 6eru"ian o"ernment. 6otential colla)oration )etween e9istin criminal or ani;ations may emer e, such as those )etween pandillas or narco0traffic*ers. &n :oli"ia, for e9ample, a human traffic*in operation run )y the Chinese or ani;ation +ed Mra on came to taint le islators and others at the hi hest le"els of
o"ernment. Such colla)oration, in the conte9t of the lan ua e differences )etween Spanish0spea*in police and local security forces, and the new Chinese communities in the re ion, can create new challen es, as can the emer ence of any turf wars associated with the introduction of new Chinese criminal or ani;ations into territory pre"iously occupied )y Batin American roups. 5 ,he Chinese presence in Latin America #ill create increasing constraints to U%S% operations in the region% ,he April $88E visit of Assistant Secretar" of State ,homas Shannon to .ei/ing to tal! a-o t Latin America implicitl" recogni+ed that China no# has a 0seat at the ta-le1 in Latin American affairs that the United States m st ta!e into acco nt%) ,he ph"sical Chinese presence #ill also give China ne# opport nities to collect intelligence data against U%S% forces operating in the region2 #hich co ld provide val e to China sho ld the c rrent -enign nat re of the U%S%-China relationship change. Such collection opportunities include Chinese access to the Cu)an listenin post at :e@ucal, as well as the Chinese commercial presence at )oth ends of the strate ically important 6anama Canal and in the lar e container port in Freeport, :ahamas. &t also includes the concession ranted to Futchison <hampoa to run the %cuadorian port of $anta, where an important G.S. Forward Jperatin Bocation (FJB# is located. &n each of these cases, the Chinese presence is commercial, )ut could )e used in the future )y the Chinese state for intelli ence collection or other acti"ities
Ext ;ncreasing ;nfl ence !$ Solve
.oosting U%S% infl ence !e" to solve heg Schaffer 1$ (Mou las 7., 'ational Security Analyst with AGSA's &nstitute of Band
<arfare, Bin*in Batin America and the 6acific: A Strate y for the Bon ?erm, 'ational Security <atch, -.(4#, 7uly, http://www.ausa.or /pu)lications/ilw/ilw!pu)s/nationalsecuritywatch/Mocuments/'S <!-.04!we).pdf#
:y ta*in a nation0)y0nation approach, the Gnited States can properly conte9tuali;e and tailor its militar" efforts with Batin America. ?his is an opportunity for the Gnited States to focus on the non0*inetic aspects of its new defense uidance. $e9ico and Colom)ia may "ery well need continued hard0power0related resourcin and support from the Gnited
?he second )enefit is a su)set of the Gnited States counterin Chinese military presence in Batin America. States2 howe"er, not e"ery nation is consumed )y a counternarcotics campai n. ?he humanitarian relief/ rescue, disaster response, capacity )uildin and
A tailored approach will let the Gnited States le"erage its militar" as an instit tion rather than / st as a force . ?he
e"en cy)ersecurity reLuirements are @ust as "alid for South and Central American nations. -3 match. $ore @oint trainin e9ercises, noncom)at operations focus ()oth in eLuippin /sales and trainin #
Gnited States military has le"els of e9pertise, e9perience and professionalism in many functional areasIsuch as lo istics or personnelIthat China cannot
more officer em)eddin and e9chan es, more professional education and more will show G.S. allies that the Gnited States ta*es seriously the nuances of each nation and will force the Gnited States to pay more than lip ser"ice to the non0counterterror aspects of its strate ic uidance. :y )ein an attenti"e and responsi"e security partner that demonstrates a "aluation of relationships o"er material, the United States can contrast itself to China in terms of relia)ility, lon e"ity and lon 0term aims for each nation
China ;nfl ence .ad Sta-ilit"

Chinese dominance ca ses Latin American insta-ilit" Johnson 8F
NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies, a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies, at ?he Ferita e Foundation.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America, ->/.//>H, http://www.herita e.or /research/reports/.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP Latin American leaders #ho sign trade and investment deals #ith the 43C ha"e noticed that ChinaMs exports are more afforda-le than their own oods, #hich contri- tes to trade deficits . Chinese goods are made -" la-orers #ho #or! for one-third of the #ages of Latin American co nterparts and who tolerate worse wor*in conditions. Jfficials in Ar entina, :ra;il, and $e9ico ha"e si naled their
8rowin trade deficits. unease a)out trade with such a hot competitor. &n Septem)er .>>H, $e9ican 6resident Cicente Fo9 made it clear to "isitin 6resident Fu 7intao that dumpin electronics and clothin was unaccepta)le. For e"ery dollar that $e9ico ma*es from e9ports to China, the 6+C ma*es ,4- from e9ports to $e9ico.N=P Misinterest in economic reform. Some analysts )elie"e that the commodities0 )ased trade model used )y China
#ill ndermine the progress that Latin America has made to#ard ind striali+ation% <hile countries li*e Chile and :ra;il ha"e mo"ed )eyond raw materials
e9ports, others with powerful presidents or rulin oli archies may )e tempted to fall )ac* on plantation economics. &ncome aps )etween the rich and poor may widen as a result. $oreo"er2
s ch narro#l" foc sed economies are v lnera-le to do#nt rns in commodit" prices% Some // percent of Batin Americans already li"e )elow the po"erty line. ;f these co ntries fail to adopt reforms2 social ine: alit" and political insta-ilit" could depress G.S. e9ports to the re ion and increase migration pro-lems. Latin American insta-ilit" ca ses glo-al #ar 5an#aring 8F ($a9 8., +etired G.S. Army colonel and an Ad@unct 6rofessor of &nternational 6olitics at Mic*inson Colle e, C%'%TG%BA1S FG8J CFmC%T, :JB&CA+&A' SJC&AB&S$, A'M ASE$$%?+&C <A+FA+%, Jcto)er .>>H, p . 6G:D.3.pdf#
?he &ssue of State Failure. 0 6resident ChU"e; also understands that the process leadin to state failure is the most dan erous lon 0term security challen e facin the lo)al community today. ?he ar ument in eneral is that
failin and failed state status is the )reedin round for insta)ility , criminality, insur ency, re ional conflict, and terrorism. ?hese conditions )reed massi"e humanitarian disasters and ma@or refu ee flows . ?hey can host e"il networ*s of all *inds,
whether they in"ol"e criminal )usiness enterprise, narco0traffic*in , or some form of ideolo ical crusade such as :oli"arianismo. $ore specifically, these conditions spawn all *inds of thin s people in eneral
do not li*e such as murder, *idnappin , corruption, intimidation, and destruction of infrastructure. ?hese means of coercion and persuasion can spawn further human ri hts
"iolations, torture, po"erty, star"ation, disease, the recruitment and use of child soldiers, traffic*in in women and )ody parts, traffic*in and proliferation of con"entional weapons systems and <$M,
enocide, ethnic cleansin , warlordism, and criminal anarchy. At the same time, these actions are usually unconfined and spill o"er into re ional syndromes of po"erty,
desta)ili;ation, and conflict.D. 6eru1s Sendero Buminoso calls "iolent and destructi"e acti"ities that facilitate the processes of state failure armed propa anda. Mru cartels operatin throu hout the Andean
+id e of South America and elsewhere call these acti"ities )usiness incenti"es.
ChU"e; considers these actions to )e steps that must )e ta*en to )rin a)out the political conditions necessary to esta)lish Batin American socialism for the .-st century.D4 ?hus, in addition to helpin to pro"ide wider latitude to further their tactical and operational o)@ecti"es, state and nonstate actors1 strate ic efforts are aimed at pro ressi"ely lessenin a tar eted re ime1s credi)ility and capa)ility in terms of its a)ility and willin ness to o"ern
ChU"e;1s intent is to focus his primary attac* politically and psycholo ically on selected Batin American o"ernments1 a )ility and ri
and de"elop its national territory and society.
ht to o"ern. &n that conte9t, he understands that popular perceptions of corruption, disenfranchisement, po"erty, and lac* of upward mo)ility limit the ri ht and the a)ility of a i"en re ime to conduct the )usiness of the state. Gntil a i"en populace enerally percei"es that its o"ernment is dealin with these and other )asic issues of political, economic, and social in@ustice fairly and effecti"ely, insta)ility and the threat of su)"ertin or destroyin such a o"ernment are real.D/ :ut failin and failed states simply do not o away . Cirtually anyone can ta*e
ad"anta e of such an unsta)le situation. ?he tendency is that the )est moti"ated and )est armed or ani;ation on the scene will control that insta)ility. As a conseLuence,
failin and failed states )ecome dysfunctional states, ro ue states, criminal states, narco0states, or new people1s democracies. &n connection with the creation of new people1s democracies, one can rest assured that ChU"e;
and his :oli"arian populist allies will )e a"aila)le to pro"ide money, arms, and leadership at any i"en opportunity. And, of course, the lon er dysfunctional, ro ue, criminal, and
narco0states and people1s democracies persist, the more they and their associated pro)lems endan er lo)al security, peace, and prosperity.DH
Ext- China ;nfl ence ?ills EconDSta-ilit"

China #ill exert press re on trade partners !ills cooperation <Neil 1$
NShannon, Senior Fellow for Batin America Studies, China1s %conomic +ole in Batin America,->/.D/-., http://)lo s.cfr.or /oneil/.>-./->/.D/chinas0economic0role0in0 latin0america/P do#nsides also exist. ,hese same imports that ma!e cons mers happ" hit the econom" at large. ,he" directly compete #ith Latin American prod cers,
?he re ate trade data shows Latin American prod cers losing #orld mar!et share to China% Still, estimates su est this head to head competition occurs in rou hly -. factories closin , and a percent of e9ports from Batin America1s )i
)oth in home mar*ets as well as a)road in the Gnited States and the %uropean Gnion. Anecdotal e"idence points to
est economiesIsi nificant, )ut not e"erywhere. ?he indirect effects of
Chinas rise have also ca sed pro)lemsIespecially throu
h the D tch disease. ?his occurs when the success of commodity e9ports raises the currency, ma*in it harder for manufacturin companies to compete internationally. $any ar ue that this has occurred in :ra;il (and helps account for the decline in manufacturin production as a percent of e9ports# it may also )e happenin in Cene;uela, Ar entina, and 6eru.
,he )i er #orr" for Latin American co ntries is that the" are losing their hard fo ght gains. J"er the last few decades man" )oth s ccessf ll" opened their economies and di"ersified their production. Boo*in at the )rea*down of e9ports, one can see a manufacturin sur e in $e9ico, :ra;il, and Colom)ia since the -=3>s. :ut Chinas press re on its trading partners threatens to ndo these gains. &hether or not Latin America can continue to clim- the economic val e-added chain matters for the long term. Commodit" dependenc" leaves co ntries more v lnera-le to glo-al commodit" price s#ings, and ma!es it harder to plan and implement long-term policies as a res lt% ;t also limits the /o- opport nities for the gro#ing n m-er of ed cated2 r-an2 and am-itio s people7the ne# middle class%
Chinese trade ca ses commodit" overdependence !ills Latin Economies Cerna 11

N$ichael, China +esearch Center, China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G.S. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion, //-H/--, http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P Chinas commodit"--ased trade str ct re is currently lucrati"e, it does not enco rage diversification of Latin Americas exports into more "alue0added oods, manufactured products, and modern ser"ices. Economic relations are dependent on often nsta-le commodit" mar!et demands. U%S% investment in the re ion is far more diversified and spans a ran e of val e-added activities2 includin manufacturin , finance,
<hile telecom, retail and other ser"ices. 8oin )ac* to a comparison with the Gnited States, while China accounts for D.S[ of the re ion1s
Latin Americas exports to the U%S% are more diversified and remain fairl" -alanced so it is -etter s ited to s rvive a possi-le commodit" c t-off in Batin America. +ou hly ./[ of the re ion1s
total e9ports, the Gnited States continues to )e the lar est )uyer, with a />[ share. e9ports are raw materials, another -.[ consists of resource0)ased oods and D>[ is manufactured products. (aren 6oniachi* of Batin ?rade also sees enormous ris*s for the re ion: ,he
steep overval ation of the regions c rrenciesId e in part to the flood of investment flo#s and export proceeds I
is eroding the competitiveness of its hi her0"alue added oods and ser"ices. ?his co ld in t rn f el its alread" high level of overdependence on commodities %1 Long term Latin America #ill s ffer -" Chinese investment
&harton2 >rad ate School of . siness at Upenn2 $811

(*A $trong !ependence+, The -otential !ownside to China+s .nvestments in Latin America/ 0harton, 1nline, 2ov 3, 4566 http://*nowled e.wharton.upenn.edu/ara)ic/article.cfmRarticleid\.S/-Vlan ua e!id\Y3ight
no#2 Latin America is -enefitting from the strong gro#th rate of China2 which )uys a reat amount of the raw materials that it needs from the re ion,Y notes 7aume 8inaMa"i, professor of law at the %SAM% )usiness school, and a specialist on )usiness in Asia. O<ver the short term2 this is a good thing2 - t over the long term2 not so m ch so , )ecause this sit ation is creating a strong dependence on China in So th American co ntries% Y5 At the
moment, Yyou can say that these are complementary economies, )ecause one of them NBatin AmericaP produces the primary
their trade relationship is as"mmetrica l,Y Ma"i warns. over the long term it floods the mar!ets of Latin America #ith its cheap man fact red prod cts2 #ith #hich the regionMs ind str" cannot compete , so Latin America #inds p -eing damaged a great deal .Y Ma"i )elie"es that this co ld lead to pro-lems over the long term if China slows down and reduces its demand for raw materials. &n such a case, Y,he Latin co ntries #o ld s ffer%O
products that the other NChinaP needs. :ut YChina )uys raw materials and land in order to supply itself, )ut
At -est2 Chinese expansion in Latin America onl" -enefits the extremel" #ealth" it ca ses povert"2 nemplo"ment2 and environmental damage ?ell" 11 (Annie (elly, <riter for ?he 8uardian and specialist in lo)al human
ri hts and social affairs, Fe)ruary -Dth .>--, <ho really )enefits from China's trade with Batin AmericaR, http://www. uardian.co.u*/ lo)al0de"elopment/po"erty0 matters/.>--/fe)/-D/china0latin0america0trade0)enefit# in a continent ne: al income distri- tion in the #orld , and where, accordin to G' fi ures, -3= million people still li"e on less than ,. a day (a)out 4/[ of the population#, #ho is reall" -enefiting from the Chinese economic -oomY ;nstead of #or!ing to#ards -etter #ealth distri- tion2 a .>>/ report )y the Batin America/Cari))ean and Asia/6acific %conomics and :usiness Association warned that Chinese expansion co ld act all" have a detrimental impact on the v lnera-ilit" and excl sion of the poor from economic activit"% &t ar ued that ChinaMs expansion into the region has -een f elled -" the need for agric lt ral and extractive reso rces O ener y oil reser"es,
&n the past decade, Batin America has ta*en reat strides in liftin millions out of po"erty. Eet
#ith the most
iron ore, copper and soy O mostly non0la)our intensi"e products that are unli*ely to ha"e a )i positi"e impact on the poor. &n fact, the report concludes that
the most v lnera-le co ld have -een negativel" affected as a res lt of the Chinese-led expansion% ,he so" ind str" is a case in point% &hile China has helped So th AmericaMs so"-ean ind stries expand their access to glo-al mar!ets2 fe# -enefits have gone to r ral comm nities% Despite rising prod ction2 emplo"ment and #ages have decreased #ith the proliferation of high-vol me monoc lt re farming% For e9ample, while :ra;ilian soy production Luadrupled )etween -==H and .>>=, employment in the sector actually shran*. So" prod ction has also -een lin!ed to the deforestation of F$P2888 s: !m of the .ra+ilian Ama+on rainforest% A research
pro@ect )ac*ed )y the &nstitute of Me"elopment Studies and the :ritish Academy is loo*in into the lin*s )etween
Chinese )usiness in Batin America and the *noc*0on impact on poor communities. +esearchers in 6eru ha"e found that Chinese companies runnin state or pri"ate enterprises ha"e little meanin ful or positi"e en a ement with local communities or la)our or anisations. Neil 3en#ic!2 a niversit" professor of glo-al
sec rit" at Coventr" Universit"2 is one of the researchers leadin the pro@ect. Fe sa"s that .ei/ingMs approach in Latin America is indicative of its domestic approach to development% O;n man" #a"s2 the Chinese approach Lin Latin AmericaN reflects the high price the LChineseN people have paid for development2 for example2 #ith regard to povert"2 ine: alit"2 corr ption or the environment2O he says. ChinaMs determination to ta!e advantage of the spending po#er of Latin AmericaMs emerging middle classes thro gh flooding local mar!ets #ith cheap Chinese goods co ld also affect the gro#th of domestic man fact ring2 often vital to gro#ing local emplo"ment and income opport nities and to red cing povert"% Bast year
Ar entina fell foul of China when it announced it planned to impose a ta9 on cheap Chinese shoes to protect local producers. China suspended an order for more than . million tonnes of soya oil from Ar entina citin safety concerns. Ar entina's economy is now hea"ily reliant on its annual ,-.H)n soy e9ports to China. &t is not a relationship it can afford to lose. Ultimatel"2 3en#ic! -elieves the c rrent model of
expansion is nli!el" to prove a positive model for povert" red ction for Latin AmericaMs 1PH million poor% Fowe"er, he does )elie"e this can chan e. Fe says that Batin
American o"ernments, and not the Chinese, must )e the ones who ta*e steps to ensure the )usiness )oom translates into meanin ful impro"ement in the li"es of the most "ulnera)le.
China ;nfl ence .ad Environment

China leverages economic infl ence to destro" the environment &atts AD$@/-4 (7onathan 0 Asia %n"ironment Correspondent for ?he 8uardian,
China1s e9ploitation of Batin American natural resources raises concern, ?he 8uardian, http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/chinas0e9ploitation0of0latin0american0natural0 resources0raises0concern/# Ama+onian forest cleared in %cuador, a mountain le"elled in 6eru, the Cerrado sa"annah con"erted to soy fields in :ra;il and oil fields nder development in Cene;uela1s Jrinoco )elt% ,hese recent reports of environmental degradation in Latin America ma" -e tho sands of miles apart in different co ntries and for different prod cts2 - t the" have a common ca se( gro#ing Chinese demand for regional commodities% ?he world1s
most populous nation has @oined the ran*s of wealthy countries in %urope, 'orth America and %ast Asia that ha"e lon consumed and polluted unsustaina)ly. ?his has led to what author $ichael ? (lare calls a race for what1s left and its impact is particularly e"ident in the continent with much of the untapped, unspoiled natural resources. %"en more than Africa, Batin America has )ecome a ma@or focus of :ei@in 1s dri"e for commodities.
A st d" last "ear -" Enri: e D ssel 4eters2 a professor at the National A tonomo s Universit" of 5exico2 fo nd that the region has -een the leading destination for Chinese foreign direct investment 7 mostl" for ra# materials and -" -ig government-r n companies s ch as Chinalco and CN<<C% Since the $88P financial crisis2 China has also -ecome the main lender to the region% ;n $8182 it provided USQA@ -illion CZ$K -illionG in loans 7 more than the &orld .an!2 ;nter-American .an! and the US ;mport-Export .an! com-ined% 5ost of this has gone to fo r primar" exporters 7 *ene+ ela2 .ra+il2 Argentina and Ec ador 7 for mining or transport infrastr ct re% ?he economic )enefits ha"e )een enormous. ?rade )etween China and Batin America was @ust GS,->
)illion in .>>>. &n .>--, it had sur ed to GS, ./- )illion. <hile the distri)ution has "aried enormously from country to country, this helped Batin America a"oid the worst of the financial and economic crises that ripped much of the de"eloped world and pro"ided e9tra re"enue for po"erty alle"iation pro rammes that ha"e eased the re ion1s notorious ineLuality. &t also played a ma@or part in )olsterin left0leanin o"ernments that are see*in an alternati"e to neo0li)eral prescriptions from <ashin ton and <all Street. Cene;uela and %cuador, which ha"e )een una)le to access international capital mar*ets since defaultin , ha"e recei"ed hefty loans from China. Ar entina is see*in similar treatment. :ut i"in up one *ind of dependency can lead to another.
3epa"ments to China are g aranteed -" long-term commodit" sales2 #hich means a commitment to p sh ahead #ith reso rce exploitation 7 often #ith dire conse: ences for the environment and indigeno s comm nities% 0China is shopping #orld#ide for nat ral reso rces% &ere in the midst of a process of commodit" acc m lation -" them% ;n that context2 the" lend mone" to Ec ador and the government pa"s #ith oil thro gh anticipated sales% &e have committed sales to them p ntil $81H21 said Al-erto Acosta2 #ho served as energ" minister - t has since challenged the government of 4resident 3afael Correa% 'e estimates his co ntr"s de-ts to China at USQ1@ -illion% ,he lopsided nat re of ChinaLatin America trade is also : estioned -eca se #hile it is good in terms of >D4 : antit"2 it has not -een so -eneficial in developmental : alit"% Commodity suppliers are deli hted at the Chinese demand for their e9ports, )ut man fact rers complain of a flood of cheap Chinese imports that ndermine their competitiveness%
Extinction
<Neal H@ ($artin, +ain Forest Mepletion, H0H, http://www.northern.w"net.edu/ntdanford/)io-/+A&'FJ.htm#
?here are some really ama;in facts a)out
the Ama;on rain forest. ?he Ama;on alone
co"ers H/[ of all the world1s rain forests, thus ma!ing it literall" the l ngs of the Earth. <e can say this )ecause trees produce o9y en while they use car)on dio9ide to maintain their respiration. +ain forests co"er a)out S[ of the %arth1s surface, )ut host a)out H>0 =>[ of the plant and animal population of the entire world. ?he Ama;on +i"er has more
species of fish than the entire Atlantic Jcean does. &n less than .H acres of rain forest there are more species of trees than the entire continent of 'orth America. A tree found in 6eru was found to )e the host to /4 different species of ants. ?here are more species of )irds on a 6eru reser"e than the entire Gnited States has. A fact that is "ery hi hly re arded a)out the Ama;on rain forest is that of the 4>>> species of plants that ha"e )een disco"ered there, S>[ of these plants ha"e anti0cancerous properties. Also, .H[ of these plants are now used to com)at cancer. So as human*ind continues to har"est the Ama;on rain forest which co"ers -.. million acres and = countries, they should also try
to consider the de"astatin effects that it is ha"in on our race alon with all the )iolo ical effects that it also carries. Althou h -.. million acres seems li*e a "ery lar e num)er, in
the past four decades that num)er was reduced in half to the current fi ure, so we see that this can not *eep happenin with out some type of o"ernin on what is occurrin . &f it does #e ma"
-ecome an endangered species.
Ext ?ills Enviro
Chinese economic infl ence damages !e" environmental areas Ama+on2 Andes >allagher FD1A/.>-4 ((e"in 0 professor of international relations at :oston
Gni"ersity V co0director of the 8lo)al %conomic 8o"ernance &nitiati"e, Batin America playin a ris*y ame )y welcomin in the Chinese dra on, ?he 8uardian, http://www. uardian.co.u*/ lo)al0de"elopment/po"erty0matters/.>-4/may/4>/latin0 america0ris*y0chinese0dra on#
?he Chinese president, Wi 7inpin , tra"els to the GS and Batin America this wee*, for the first time since he too* office in $arch. <hat a difference a decade ma*es. ?en years a o, there would hardly ha"e )een any fanfare a)out a Chinese "isit to the re ion. No#2 for .ra+il2 Chile and others2 China is the most
important trade and investment partner% China-Latin America trade s rpassed Q$F8-n CZ1EF-nG last "ear% Althou h China's impact in Africa recei"es the most
attention, China trades @ust as much in Batin America as in Africa, and has more in"estments in the re ion. Chinese finance in Batin America O chiefly from the China Me"elopment :an* and the %9port0&mport :an* of China O is sta erin ly lar e and rowin . &n a recently updated report, collea ues and & estimate that, since .>>H, China
has provided loan commitments of more than QPE-n to Latin American co ntries% ,hat is more than the &orld .an! or the ;nter-American Development .an! have provided to the region d ring the same period%
China's presence is a reat opportunity for Batin America, )ut it )rin s new ris*s. &f the re ion can sei;e the new opportunities that come with Chinese finance, countries could come closer to their de"elopment oals, and pose a real challen e to the way western0)ac*ed de"elopment )an*s do )usiness. Fowe"er, if Batin American nations don't channel this new trade and in"estment toward lon 0term rowth and sustaina)ility, the ris*s may ta*e away many of the rewards. First, the positi"e side. Chinese trade and in"estment is partly a )lessin for Batin America )ecause it di"ersifies the sources of finance O finance that for too lon has relied on the west. ?he GS and %uropean economies ha"e )een anaemic since .>>3, and trade with China has tu ed Batin American rowth rates to impressi"e le"els. %"ery -[ increase in Chinese rowth is correlated with a -..[ increase in Batin American rowth. Chinese finance is more in tune with what Batin American nations want, rather than with what western de"elopment e9perts say they YneedY. <hereas the GS and international financial institutions (&F&s# such as the <orld :an* and &$F tend to finance in line with the latest de"elopment fads such as trade li)eralisation and micro0 anti0po"erty pro rammes, Chinese loans tend to o into ener y and infrastructure pro@ects in a re ion that has an annual infrastructure ap of ,.D>)n. 'either do Chinese loans come with the harsh strin s attached to &F& finance. ?he &F&s are notorious for their YconditionalitiesY that ma*e )orrowers si n up to austerity and structural ad@ustment pro rammes that ha"e had Luestiona)le outcomes on rowth and eLuality in the re ion. :ut there are ris*s. <hile the Chinese do not attach policy conditions to their loans, they ha"e reLuired that )orrowers contract Chinese firms, )uy Chinese eLuipment, and sometimes si n oil sale a reements that reLuire nations to send oil to China in e9chan e for the loans instead of local currency. Chinese in"estment accentuates the deindustrialisation of Batin America. Bar e scale, capital intensi"e commodities production is not "ery employment0intensi"e, nor does it lin* well with other sectors of an economy. Mependence on commodities can cause a Yresource curseY where the e9chan e rate appreciates such that e9porters of manufacturin and ser"ices industries can't compete in world mar*ets O and thus contri)ute to deindustrialisation and economic "ulnera)ility. 4rod cing nat ral
reso rce--ased commodities also -rings ma/or environmental ris!% 5an" of ChinaMs iron2 so" and copper pro/ects are fo nd in Latin AmericaMs most environmentall" sensitive areas% ;n areas s ch as the Ama+on and the Andean highlands2 conflict over nat ral reso rces2 propert" rights and s staina-le livelihoods have -een rife for decades% &n our report, we find that Chinese -an!s act all" operate nder a set of environmental g idelines that surpass those of their western counterparts when at China's sta e of de"elopment. 'e"ertheless, those uidelines are not on par #ith $1st cent r" standards for development -an!ing% Stronger standards sho ld -e in place at a time #hen
environmental concerns are at an all-time high. <ith e"ery opportunity comes a

challen e. Batin Americans ha"e access to a new source of finance that i"es them more leeway to meet their own de"elopment oals. &f Batin America doesn't channel some of the finance to support macroeconomic sta)ility, economic di"ersification, eLuality and en"ironmental protection, this new source of finance could )rin reat ris*.
3eliance on Chinese trade ca ses massive ecological damage in the Ama+on and violation of rights of indigeno s peoples Ec ador proves 4o#ell KD18/-4 (Felena O &nternational Affairs writer at 6ulsamerica, China/Batin
America: %cuador to sell Ama;on rainforest to Chinese, 6ulsamerica, http://www.pulsamerica.co.u*/.>-4/>//->/chinalatin0america0ecuador0plans0to0sell0 off0ama;on0rainforest0land0to0chinese0oil0companies/# ,he Ec adorean government is reportedl" a ctioning off Am hectares of the Ama+onian rainforest for oil exploration pro/ects f nded -" Chinese oil companies% ,his swathe of land amo nts to nearl" half of the total rainforest that falls #ithin Ec adorean -orders% Bast wee* %cuadorean politicians tra"elled to :ei@in to
pitch )iddin contracts to representati"es of state0owned companies such as China 6etrochemical and China 'ational Jffshore Jil. 'o#ever the deal is provo!ing vocal opposition from seven
different indigeno s gro ps #ho live on the land% ,he" claim that the" #ere not cons lted a-o t the pro/ect2 #hich #ill threaten their land and #a" of life% An open letter written )y an association of indi enous roups pleaded, Qthat pu)lic and pri"ate oil
companies across the world do not participate in the )iddin process that systematically "iolates the ri hts of se"en indi enous nationalities )y imposin oil pro@ects in their ancestral territories.1 Such action on the part of the %cuadorean o"ernment would )e in contra"ention of international law, as decreed )y the &nter0American Court on Fuman +i hts last year durin a case in"ol"in the protection of the lands of the Saraya*u roup, also resident in %cuador. Accordin to the rulin , o"ernments must ha"e, Qfree, prior and informed consent1 from nati"e tri)es )efore appro"in oil acti"ities on their land. Accordin to 'arcisa $arshienta, a women1s leader of the Shuar people, Q<hat the o"ernment1s )een sayin as they ha"e )een offerin up our land is not true2 they ha"e not consulted us.1 She added, Q<e1re here to tell the )i in"estors that they don1t ha"e our permission to e9ploit our land.1 %cuador1s secretary for hydrocar)ons, Andras Monoso Fa)ara, criticised the indi enous roups as ha"in , Qa political a enda1, and defended the o"ernment1s actions sayin , Q<e are entitled )y law, if we wanted, to o in )y force and do some acti"ities e"en if they are a ainst them. :ut that1s not our policy.1 Fa)ara also claimed that the contracts were a"aila)le to )idders other than China, Q<e1re loo*in for lo)al in"estors, not @ust in"estors from China. :ut of course Chinese companies are really a ressi"e. &n a )iddin process, they mi ht present the winnin )ids.1 Despite the governments assertions critics are not convinced of the
explanation2 pointing instead to Ec adors extreme financial reliance on China% Adam R c!erman2 an environmental and h man rights campaigner at Ama+on &atch2 said2 95" nderstanding is that this is more of a de-t iss e its -eca se the Ec adoreans are so dependent on the Chinese to finance their development that the"re #illing to compromise in other areas s ch as social and environmental reg lations% ?he messa e that they1re tryin to send to international in"estors is not in line with reality.1 &ndeed 2 as of s mmer $81$ Ec ador #as inde-ted to China to the t ne of over Q@-n2 #hich is more than a tenth of the co ntr"s >D4. &n addition, since .>>= the two countries ha"e )een en a ed in a Qmoney0for0oil1
arran ement, where China loans %cuador )illions of dollars in return for su)sidised oil. As well as loanin money China has in"ested in two ma@or hydroelectric infrastructure pro@ects and is in tal*s to fund a 4>[ sta*e in a ,-..H)n oil refinery in %cuador. R c!erman also dre# attention to Chinas voracio s
appetite for energ" leading the co ntr" to circ mvent its o#n g idelines% ;f China -id for2 and #ins2 the contract it #ill violate its ne# investment protocol2 #hich promises to act in the interest of the local comm nit" and environment% ,he r ctions ca sed -" the pro/ect coincide #ith
environmental pro-lems in neigh-o ring 4er 2 res lting from oil poll tion% ,he 4asta+a river -asin in the northern Ama;on near the %cuadorean )order has )een home to oil fields operated )y the Ar entinean company 6luspetrol since .>>-, and the area has -ecome so poll ted that the 4er vian government has -een forced to declare an environmental state of emergenc"%
A$( China Econ ;mpact

U%S% is still -iggest econom" #ont ca se #ar Shor 1$ (Francis, 6rofessor of Fistory O <ayne State, Meclinin GS Fe emony
and +isin Chinese 6ower: A Formula for ConflictR, 6erspecti"es on 8lo)al Me"elopment and ?echnolo y, --(-#, pp. -HS0-DS# &hile the United States no longer dominates the lo)al economy as it did durin the first two decades after <<&&, it still is the leading economic po#er in the #orld. 'o#ever, over the last fe# decades China, with all its internal contradictions, has made enormo s leaps ntil it no# occ pies the n m-er t#o spot. &n fact,
the &$F recently pro@ected that the Chinese economy would )ecome the world's lar est in .>-D. &n manufacturin China has displaced the GS in so many areas, includin )ecomin the num)er one producer of steel and e9porter of four0fifths of all of the te9tile products in the world and two0thirds of the world's copy
a significant portion of this man fact ring is still o#ned -" foreign companies2 incl ding U%S% firms li!e >eneral 5otors. NHP Jn the other hand, China is also the largest holder of U%S% foreign reserves, e%g% treas r" -onds. ,his ma" -e one of the reasons mitigating f ll--lo#n conflict #ith the U%S% no#, since China has such a
machines, MCM players, and microwa"es o"ens. Eet, lar e sta*e in the G.S. economy, )oth as a holder of )onds and as the leadin e9porter of oods to the G.S. 'onetheless, Ythe G.S. has )loc*ed se"eral lar e scale Chinese in"estments and )uyouts of oil companies, technolo y firms, and other enterprises.Y NDP &n effect, there are still clear nation0centric responses to China's risin economic power, especially as an e9pression of the G.S. o"ernin elite's ideolo ical commitment to national security.
Economic decline doesnt ca se #ar ,ir 18 N7arosla" ?ir 0 6h.M. in 6olitical Science, Gni"ersity of &llinois at Gr)ana0
Champai n and is an Associate 6rofessor in the Mepartment of &nternational Affairs at the Gni"ersity of 8eor ia, ?erritorial Mi"ersion: Mi"ersionary ?heory of <ar and ?erritorial Conflict, ?he 7ournal of 6olitics, .>->, Colume S.: /-40/.H#P Empirical s pport for the economic gro#th rate is m ch #ea!er% ,he finding that poor economic performance is associated #ith a higher li!elihood of territorial conflict initiation is significant onl" in 5odels A K%1K ,he #ea! res lts are not altogether s rprising given the findings from prior literat re% &n accordance with the insi nificant relationships of $odels -O. and HOD, Jstrom and 7o) (-=3D#, for e9ample, note that the li!elihood that a U%S% 4resident #ill se force is ncertain2 as the -ad econom" might create incentives -oth to divert the p -lics attention #ith a foreign advent re and to foc s on solving the economic pro-lem2 th s red cing the inclination to act a-road. Similarly, 6ordham (-==3a, -==3)#, De3o en (-==H#, and >o#a (-==3# find no relation -et#een a poor econom" and U%S% se of force. Furthermore, Leeds and Davis (-==S# conclude that the conflict-initiating -ehavior of 1P ind striali+ed democracies is nrelated to economic conditions as do 4ic!ering and ?isangani (.>>H# and 3 ssett and <neal (.>>-# in lo)al studies. &n contrast and more in line with my findin s of a si nificant
relationship (in $odels 4O/#, Fess and Jrphanides (-==H#, for e9ample, ar ue that economic recessions are lin*ed with forceful action )y an incum)ent G.S. president. Furthermore, Fordham1s (.>>.# re"ision of 8owa1s (-==3# analysis shows some effect of a )ad economy and Me+ouen and 6ea*e (.>>.# report that G.S. use of force di"erts the pu)lic1s attention from a poor economy. Amon cross0national studies, Jneal and +ussett (-==S# report that slow rowth increases the incidence of militari;ed disputes, as does +ussett (-==>#I)ut only for the Gnited States2 slow rowth does not affect the )eha"ior of other countries. (isan ani and 6ic*erin (.>>S# report some si nificant associations, )ut they are sensiti"e to model specification, while ?ir and 7asins*i (.>>3# find a clearer lin* )etween economic underperformance and increased attac*s on domestic ethnic minorities. <hile none of these wor*s has focused on territorial di"ersions, my own inconsistent findin s for economic rowth fit well with the mi9ed results reported in the literature.-H Fypothesis - thus recei"es stron support "ia the unpopularity "aria)le )ut only wea* support "ia the economic rowth "aria)le.
,hese res lts s ggest that em-attled leaders
are m ch more li!el" to respond #ith territorial diversions to direct signs of their npop larit" Ce%g%2 stri!es2 protests2 riotsG than to general -ac!gro nd conditions s ch as economic malaise. 6resuma)ly, protesters can )e
distracted "ia territorial di"ersions while fi9in the economy would ta*e a more concerted and prolon ed policy effort. :ad economic conditions seem to moti"ate only the most serious, fatal territorial confrontations. ?his implies that leaders may )e reser"in the most hi h0profile and ris*y di"ersions for the times when they are the most desperate, that is when their power is threatened )oth )y si ns of discontent with their rule and )y more systemic pro)lems pla uin the country (i.e., an underperformin economy#.
No impact to the Chinese econom" and the CC4 solves econ collapse Coonan 9P (->/.H, Clifford, &rish?imes.com, China's stallin )oom has lo)e worried,
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/.>>3/->.H/-../3433.SS.=.html# All of this down)eat news feeds into a rowin suspicion that China has had its ca*e and eaten for way too lon , and that there is simply no precedent for a country rowin and rowin without some *ind of respite. %sta)lishin what that pause will loo* li*e and what it means to the rest of the world is the latest challen e facin lo)al analysts. A han o"er is considered economically, are widely considered the psycholo ical tri
ine"ita)le
and the Jlympics, while meanin less er for China to face a slowdown. Mespite all this
loom, howe"er, writin China off is premature. ?he :ei@in o"ernment is well placed to help protect the economy from the worst ra"a es of a lo)al downturn. &t has spent the last two years tryin to fi ht inflation and cool the o"erheatin economy , so it's a lot easier for it to ta*e the foot off the )ra*es than it is to put them on in the first place. ?he central )an* has lowered its )enchmar* interest rate twice in the past two months, the first time in si9 years. ?he State Council is increasin spendin on infrastructure, offerin ta9 re)ates for e9porters and allowin state0controlled prices for a ricultural products to rise. %9pect si nificant measures to *ic*0start the property mar*et to a"oid house prices fallin too drastically. China has a lot of plus points to help out. Chinese )an*s did not issue su)prime loans as a rule, and the country's o-./4 trillion in hard0currency reser"es is a useful war chest to call on in a downturn . ?he currency is sta)le and there are hi h liLuidity le"els, all of which i"e China the most fle9i)ility in the world to fend off the impact of the lo)al financial crisis, says 76 $or an economist Fran* 8on . China is now a lo)alised economy, )ut its domestic mar*et is still massi"ely undere9ploited , and it is to this mar*et that the o"ernment will most li*ely turn. <hile it is a lo)alised economy committed to the <?J, China is also a centralised economy run )y the Communist 6arty, and it has no real political opposition at home to stop it actin howe"er it sees fit to stop slidin rowth. Should the economy start to worsen si nificantly, pu)lic an er will increase, )ut China has )een so successful in *eepin a ti ht leash on the internet and the media that it is difficult for opposition to or anise itself in a meanin ful way. +ecent years of sur in rowth in China ha"e certainly done a lot to *eep lo)al economic data loo*in rosy, )ut perhaps
China's influence has )een somewhat o"ersold. &t is not a )i enou h economy )y itself to *eep the lo)al economy tic*in o"er, accountin for H per cent of the world economy, compared to the Gnited States with a muscular .3 per cent. And whate"er a)out
slowin rowth, = per cent is still an admira)le rate, one that %uropean leaders athered this wee*end in :ei@in for the Asian0%urope $eetin would i"e their eye teeth to )e a)le to present to their constituencies.
A$( CC4 Sta-ilit" ;mpact

No CC4 collapse7the government represses insta-ilit" 4ei H ($in9in, Senior Associate in the China 6ro ram at the Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace, 4/-..
<ill the Chinese Communist 6arty Sur"i"e the CrisisR Forei n Affairs. http://www.forei naffairs.com/articles/D/3D./min9in0pei/will0the0chinese0communist0party0sur"i"e0the0crisis# &t mi ht seem reasona)le to e9pect that challen es from the disaffected ur)an middle class, frustrated colle e raduates, and unemployed mi rants will constitute the principal threat to the party's rule. &f those roups were in fact to )and to ether in a powerful coalition, then the world's lon est0rulin party would indeed )e in deep trou)le.
a re"olutionary scenario o"erloo*s two critical forces )loc*in political chan e in China and similar authoritarian political systems: the re ime's capacity for repression and the unity amon the elite . %conomic crisis and social unrest may ma*e it tou her for the CC6 to o"ern, )ut they will not loosen the party's hold on power. A lance at countries such as Tim)a)we, 'orth (orea, Cu)a, and :urma shows that a relati"ely unified elite in control of the military and police can clin to power throu h )rutal force, e"en in the face of a)ysmal economic failure .
:ut that is not oin to happen. Such Misunity within the rulin elite, on the other hand, wea*ens the re ime's repressi"e capacity and usually spells the rulers' doom.
?he CC6 has already demonstrated its remar*a)le a)ility to contain and suppress chronic social protest and small0scale dissident mo"ements. ?he re ime maintains the 6eople's Armed 6olice, a well0trained and well0eLuipped anti0riot force of .H>,>>>. &n addition, China's secret police are amon the most capa)le in the world and are au mented
)y a "ast networ* of informers. And althou h the &nternet may ha"e made control of information more difficult,
Chinese censors can still react Luic*ly and thorou hly to end the dissemination of dan erous news. Since the ?iananmen crac*down, the Chinese o"ernment has reatly refined its repressi"e capa)ilities. +espondin to tens of thousands of riots each year has made Chinese law enforcement the most e9perienced in the world at crowd control and dispersion. Chinese state security ser"ices ha"e applied the tactic of Ypolitical decapitationY to reat effect,
Luic*ly arrestin protest leaders and lea"in their followers disor ani;ed, demorali;ed, and impotent. &f worsenin economic conditions lead to a potentially e9plosi"e political situation, the party will stic* to these tried0and0true practices to ward off any or ani;ed mo"ement a ainst the re ime.
Even if2 no escalation Cople" @ O Award0winnin historian and lo)al strate ist2 foundin Mirector of
Future Mirections &nternational 6ty. Btd. and its Actin Chief %9ecuti"e2 %ditor, 8&S
(%regory, )*)+. ,#voiding an -conomic !andemic The Critical %lobal Significance of the .ealth of the !/C -conomy,, 0efense 1 $oreign #ffairs Special #nalysis, "exis.2
?here is scope or fle9i)ility for the 6+C to somewhat transform its ener y demands in the lo)al mar*etplace. Am). Freeman ma*es the point that domestic and international pressures seem li*ely to cause the 6+C to impro"e its ener y efficiency throu h internal inno"ation. Fe noted that despite the 6+C's Y"ery low rates of per capita ener y consumption (which are only a)out -/ percent of GS per capita consumption#, China consumes )etween se"en and ---/. times more ener y than 7apan to produce one dollar of ross domestic product (8M6#, and it's a)out /-/. times less efficient than is the Gnited StatesY. And many of the inno"ations which the 6+C is e9plorin are in the area of clean coal and nuclear ener y. ;t seems clear that it is in the interests of the international comm nit" to help the 43C sta-ili+e its ener y situation, and to impro"e ener y usa e efficiency, in order to minimi+e ris!s to the glo-al sec rit" frame#or!, within the framewor* of competin ener y needs. ,he onl" alternative2 from the standpoint of external po#ers2 to assisting in the process of sta-ili+ing
the 43CMs energ" s ppl"2 c rrenc" credi-ilit"2 and pop lation nrest is to plan for the containment of an" implosion of political sta-ilit" #ithin the 43C sho ld its transition d ring the next t#o decades to entrenched po#er stat s -e interr pted.
A$( <il ;mpact

Latin America isnt !e" to Chinese oil C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic
P2
Energ" concerns have pla"ed a role in ChinaMs overt res ) to#ard Latin America2 #ith the 43C either concl ding or ) exploring vario s energ" investments in .ra+il2 Ec ador2 ) .olivia2 4er 2 Colom-ia2 and *ene+ ela2 as #ell as offshore ) pro/ects in Argentina and C -a% ,he three ma/or2 state-o#ned ) Chinese energ" corporations ma!ing Latin American investments 5 are the China 6etroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec#, 5 China 'ational Jffshore Jil Corporation (C'JJC#, and China 5 'ational 6etroleum Corporation (C'6C#. &n April .>>D, Sinopec 5 si ned an a reement with :ra;il's 6etro)ras to )uild a natural 5 as pipeline lin*in the northeast and southeast of :ra;il. 5 6etro)ras and C'JJC also reportedly are st d"ing the ) feasi-ilit" of /oint operations in exploration2 refining2 and ) pipeline constr ction aro nd the #orld. &n Cu)a, Sinopec has 5 focused on onshore oil e9traction in 6inar del +io pro"ince in 5 western Cu)a. &n Cene;uela, C'6C is partnered with Cene;uela's 5 state0oil company, 6dCSA (6etroleos de Cene;uela, S.A.#, for 5 e9ploration in de"elopment of the Jrinoco )elt oil reser"es. 5 Despite these investments in oil prod ction and assets2 ) o-servers point o t that China relies relativel" little on ) Latin America for oil2 #hich acco nts for some A_ of ChinaMs ) oil imports2 and that #hile the percentage co ld rise a -it2 it ) is nli!el" to change significantl" in the f t re%\K$\
Chinese energ" sec rit" inevita-le and is not -ased on oil s pplies 5atthe#s @DA
(7ohn $atthews, Australian professor of competiti"e dynamics and lo)al strate y, +enewa)les manufacturin )oosts Chinese ener y security, Financial ?imes, S/4/-4. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/>/daDdSScc0e44d0--e.0)d3S0 >>-//fea)dc>.html#
Sir, Beslie Foo* writes that shale as is critical to China1s ener y future (China li*ely to miss tar et for .>-H shale as output, 7uly 4#. &t is true that China may indeed miss its self0imposed tar et of D.H)n cu)ic metres of shale as )y .>-H, and may ha"e to
. t in terms of 0energ" sec rit"12 #hich is the slogan tilised in the US -" shale oil and gas proponents2 China is act all" doing ver" #ell -" -asing a considera-le part of its energ" strategies on man fact red rene#a-le energ" s"stems%) Chinas development of #ind po#er moves ahead at a pace that far o tstrips that of other leading ind strial po#ers2 so that the .>-H tar et of ->>8< (itself already raised# and the .>.> tar et of .>>8< are li*ely to )e e9ceeded. 5ean#hile2 solar photovoltaic prod ction is alread" moving to second-generation thin-film
watch as the GS pulls ahead in dri"in its own dependence on fossil0fuelled ener y systems to new hei hts (or depths#.
technolog" C#here Sol"ndra #as o tg essed -" the US mar!etGW and in the ne# field of concentrated solar po#er tilising mirror and lens arra"s China has recentl" proposed targets of A>& for $81F and 18>& for $8$8% ,hese ne# targets #o ld more than do -le #orld o tp t and drive companies along the cost-red ction c rve%
4 -lic opinion and nationalism are the driving so rce of tension in the So th China Sea oil isnMt !e" Nehr PD$AD1$ (Ci*ram, ?he 'ational &nterest, senior associate and :a*rie Chair
in Southeast Asian Studies at the Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace, YCollision Course in the South China Sea,Y http://nationalinterest.or /commentary/collision0course0the0south0china0sea0S43>R pa e\-# Certainly, the potential costs of conflict for the re ion and the world far outwei h any potential economic )enefits contained in the sea)ed of the South China SeaI much of which is un*nown in any case. 3ather than the availa-ilit" of h"drocar-ons and fisheries, the So th China Sea disp te is no# increasingl" -eing driven -" domestic p -lic opinion in the co ntries concerned that is f eled -" militar" lo--ies and strong nationalist sentiments%
Chinese reso rce gra-s #ill -e peacef l Dannre ther 11 00 6rofessor and Fead of Mepartment of 6olitics and
&nternational +elations, Gni"ersity of <estminster (+oland, --/-/--, YChina and lo)al oil: "ulnera)ility and opportunity,Y &nt'l Affairs 3S(D#, %:SCJ# there is evidence that Chinas energ"-related diplomac" and engagement have -ecome increasin ly s pportive of the efficient operation of international energ" mar!ets. As a conseLuence, China has -ecome more #illing to recogni+e the international p -lic goods provided )y the <est in supplyin security and military protection for these mar*ets. ,here has -een a nota-le shift, as ar ued a)o"e, in China1s strate y away from a neo0mercantilist
?he picture that emer es is a mi9ed and comple9 one. Jn the one hand, approach which see*s to a"oid reliance on mar*ets and to ensure supplies throu h physical control of forei n sources of ener y.
,his gro#ing confidence in the role of mar!ets has -een com-ined #ith an implicit recognition -" the .ei/ing o"ernment that China, as a ma@or oil0 importin state, has a n m-er of congr ent interests #ith other oil-importing states2 s ch as the US2 the EU and Japan. Chinas intense economic interdependence with the <est, most nota)ly with the GS, means that there is also considera-le ca tion in .ei/ing a-o t s pporting the anti-#estern policies of many energ"-rich revisionist states. ?he pu)lic pronouncements and statements issued )y the Chinese leadership see* to reass re all external actors, includin those in the <est, that its energ"-directed diplomac" is driven -" economic rather than political necessit" and see!s cooperation rather than confrontation%
A$( ,ai#an ;mpact ;DL , rn

Chinese infl ence in Latin America ca ses ,ai#an #ar 6erg sson 1$ (+o))ie, +esearcher at +oyal Society for the Arts, Featured
Contri)utor at &nternational :usiness ?imes, Former Conference V +esearch Assistant at Security <atch, Former +esearcher at Gni"ersity Colle e Bondon, $aster of Science, China in the &nternational Arena, ?he Gni"ersity of 8las ow, ?he Chinese Challen e to the $onroe Moctrine, http://www.e0ir.info/.>-./>S/.4/does0 chinese0 rowth0in0latin0america0threaten0american0interests/# ?aiwan O domestic, or forei n policyR 5 Chinas goals in the region amo nt to more than the capt re of nat ral reso rces% Altho gh the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China considers resol tion of the ,ai#an iss e to -e a domestic iss e2 it is #ith some iron" that one of Chinas main foreign polic" goals is to isolate ,aipei internationall"% ,he 43C and the 3<C compete directl" for international recognition amon all the states in the world. . No#here is this more evident than in Latin America2 #here 1$ of the $A nations that still have official diplomatic relations #ith the 3<C reside%) ?he historical )ac* round5 Followin the mainland Communist
"ictory in the Chinese Ci"il <ar in -=/=, the nationalist (uomintan retreated to the island of Formosa (?aiwan# where it continued to claim to )e the le itimate o"ernment of all of China. &n 7une -=H> the Gnited States inter"ened )y placin its Sth fleet in the ?aiwan straits to stop a conclusi"e military resolution to the ci"il war and slowly the )attlefield )ecame primarily political, concerned with le itimacy. 5 <hen the Gnited 'ations was formed in -=/H, the +epu)lic of China (+JC# )ecame one of the fi"e permanent mem)ers of the Security Council. ?his a"e the +JC a de facto ad"anta e o"er the 6+C in attainin reco nition from other nation states2 particularly as the diplomatic clout of the he emonic Gnited States supported its position as the true representati"e of the Chinese people, until the rapprochement of the -=S>s, when the 'i9on administration wished to impro"e ties with the de facto rulers of China in order to e9ploit the Sino0So"iet split. G' +esolution .SH3 ranted the 1China seat1 to the 6+C at the e9pense of the +JC who were in effect e9iled from the or ani;ation, and the famous -=S. "isit of 6resident 'i9on to China further added le itimacy to the communist re ime. All this resulted in a thawin of world opinion, and radually as the dura)ility and permanence of the 6+C re ime )ecame in rained, countries )e an switchin their diplomatic reco nition from ?aipei to :ei@in . 5 ?he economics of international reco nition 5 &n the Americas, the
the 3<C has maintained more diplomatic s pport in the Americas than an" other region2 mainl" d e to the small nat re of the states involved and the importance of ,ai#anese aid to their economies% Bi notes that from the late -=3>s to
6+C had international reco nition and lon standin support from ideolo ical allies such as Cu)a. Fowe"er, the early -==>s, rou hly -> percent of ?aiwan1s direct forei n in"estment (FM&# went to Batin America and the Cari))ean, NH-P hi hli htin the concerted effort made in the re ion.
Economic solidarit" is increasingl" important to the formation of the ,ai#an-Latin America relationship2 for t#o reasons% ,he first is that for Latin American states2 the decision of #hich China to s pport is less ideological and political than it e"er has )een2 #hich ma!es the decision a straight p economic +ero-s m choice% ,he second is that Latin America is home to nat ral reso rces #hich are of great significance to the h ngr" gro#ing economies of the 43C and the 3<C re ardless of international reco nition.5 Fowe"er, while the decision is not political for Batin American countries, for ,ai#an2 ever" co ntr" #hich s#itches its recognition to the 43C damages its legitimac" as a nation state in the international arena% ?he ?a)le )elow shows the desi nation of diplomatic reco nition in the re ion in .>>3.5 Countries
+eco nisin the 6+C (China#Countries +eco nisin the +JC (?aiwan#Central America$e9ico, Costa +ica%l Sal"ador, 8uatemala, Fonduras, 'icara ua, 6anamaCari))eanAnti ua V :ar)uda, :ahamas, :ar)ados, Cu)a, Mominica, 8renada, 8uyana, 7amaica, Suriname, ?rinidad V ?o)a o:eli;e, Mominican +epu)lic, Faiti, St (itts V 'e"is, St. Bucia, St. Cincent V the 8renadinesSouth AmericaAr entina, :oli"ia, :ra;il, Chile, Colom)ia, %cuador, 6eru,
for the 43C2 ever" state #hich #ithdra#s its s pport for the 3<C ta!es it one step closer to -eing in a position #here it can resolve the 9,ai#an iss e nilaterall"% Su)seLuently, ndermining ,ai#an is of the tmost importance to China2 and it has ta!en to
Gru uay, Cene;uela6ara uay5 Jn the other hand,
9o t-idding ,ai#an in offers of foreign aid, a strate
y made possi)le )y the decline in aid from the defunct So"iet Gnion, and the <est, which is pre occupied with terrorism and the $iddle %ast. Bi notes that the re ion1s leaders ha"e turned to Asia for help to promote trade and financial assistance, and conseLuently played the 6+C and ?aiwan a ainst each other. NH4P Mespite its smaller si;e, ?aiwan has fared remar*a)ly well in this )iddin war2 focusin its aid in"estments on infrastructure such as stadiums in St (itts V 'e"is for the Cric*et <orld Cup in .>>S.5 Fowe"er, e"en ?aiwanQs economy can )e put under strain )y the seemin ly relentless stream of forei n aid which has )rou ht only de)atea)le and mild ains to the ?aiwanese cause. ,his has
contri- ted to the 43C pic!ing off the fe# remaining s pporters of the 3<C O ta*e for e9ample, the Mominican case.5 &n early .>>/, Commonwealth of Mominica as*ed ?aipei for a ,H3
million aid, which is unrelated to pu)lic welfare. ?he Cari))ean nation had relied on ?aiwan to de"elop its a riculture0)ased economy since -=34. Miplomatic relationship was soon )ro*en after ?aipei turned down the reLuest. NH/P5 ?his incident showcased the fact that in economic terms, the 6+C is winnin the )attle for Batin America.5 6olitical strate ies of the 6+C5 ;n political terms tooW the 43C is in an
advantageo s position, than*s in part a
ain to its position within the G'. <hile it can )e ar ued that China pro"ides incenti"es )ut does not threaten harm to induce countries to defect from reco ni;in ?aiwan, NHHP the reality is that the use of force and direct harm are not the only means a"aila)le to an economic entity as powerful as China. ;t ref ses to maintain official relations #ith an" state that
recognises the 3<CW an action #hich can -e : ite prohi-itive to the co ntr" -eing a-le to ta!e advantage of the gro#ing Chinese mar!et%
Althou h Mombn ue; su ests that the 6+C has not )een puniti"e toward those states that still reco ni;e the +epu)lic of China (?aiwan#, NHDP the le itimacy of this claim has to )e )rou ht into Luestion O for e9ample in 7une -==D, China fou ht the e9tension of the G' mission in Faiti, to punish the Cari))ean nation for its appeal for G' acceptance of ?aiwan. NHSP ?his incident showed that China is prepared to use its lo)al clout to play spoiler and apply indirect pressure on countries to adopt its position. Similarl"2 Chinas experience #ith
one-part" r le has ta ght it the importance of part"-to-part" relations in addition to state-to-state relations2 f rther cementing the 43C -" esta-lishing a relationship -ased on good#ill and common nderstanding%
&ndeed )y the start of -==3 the CC6 had esta)lished relations with almost all ma@or political parties in the countries that were ?aiwan1s diplomatic allies in Batin America, NH3P further isolatin the +JC. 5 ?he effect on American interests5 &ere the 3<C to -e deserted -" its remaining allies in Latin
America2 the USA #o ld -e disadvantaged in attempting to maintain the stat s : o across the ,ai#an Strait% A ?aiwan that was not reco nised )y any state from the
Americas, or %urope (with the e9ception of the Catican# would not )e seen as a enuine so"erei n entity whose defence would )e more important than the up*eep of ood relations )etween China and the <est. As Chinas
economic and political position in the #orld improves vis-b-vis -oth America and ,ai#an2 so might its am-itions% ,he U%S%A might find itself in a position #here it co ld no longer #ithstand the diplomatic press re to allo# the 43C to concl de a settlement on ,ai#an2 perhaps -" force%
China controlling Latin America means the" #o ld #in a #ar C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55;,,EE <N 6<3E;>N 3ELA,;<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .;DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3;S,<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic
P2
. t it also is possi-le to s pport s!epticism concerning ) the [[-enign riseMM notion -" pointing to historical examples ) in the 1Hth and $8th cent ries of confrontation and o tright ) #arfare -et#een reigning po#ers s ch as the United States and ) rising po#ers s ch as the 43C%
,hro gh this more s!eptical ) lens2 the 43C presence in Latin America and the Cari--ean has ) partic larl" #orrisome implications% &t could help stren then 5 anti0democratic and anti0G.S. political leaders and actors in 5 some countries2 moreo"er2 in the event of a possi-le U%S% ) militar" conflict #ith China2 43C h man and commercial ) infrastr ct re in Latin America #o ld -e #ell placed to disr pt ) and distract the United States in the hemisphere and to collect ) intelligence data against U%S% forces operating in the ) region%\$K\
;solation ma!es conflict more li!el" nationalism and empirics prove the" #ill see! re nification and that dra#s in the US Jennings 1$ (+alph O CS$, Could ?aiwan's relationship with China deteriorate
after electionsR, .>-., http://www.csmonitor.com/<orld/Asia0 6acific/.>-./>-->/Could0?aiwan0s0relationship0with0China0deteriorate0after0 elections# ,he US government is -o nd -" a 1H@H congressional act to s pport ,ai#anMs defense )ut wants to et alon with :ei@in so it reaps the lon 0term economic and trade )enefits e9pected from the Chinese economy. :ut that doesn1t mean pro)lem sol"ed. China has claimed sovereignt" over self-r led ,ai#an since the Chinese civil #ar of the -=/>s. ;t has not reno nced the threat of force to p rs e re nification if peacef l means fail. ?hat stance han s o"er ?sai1s party, which has traditionally pushed for independence with China. ;n the mid-1HH8s chill2 China test-fired missiles into #aters near ,ai#an after then0 6resident Bee ?en 0hui ad"ocated ?aiwan1s independence. And more recentl"2 former 4resident Chen Sh i--ian O who o"erned from .>>>0.>>3 and was )ac*ed at the time )y ?sai1s party O o traged .ei/ing #ith his ns ccessf l p rs it of constit tional independence for ,ai#an, fannin fear that cast China as a ma@or election issue.
<ashin ton would welcome a continued thaw as it tries to impro"e ties with China without isolatin ?aiwan.
,he onl" scenario for conflict is Chinese aggression 3igger @ (Shelly O :rown Associate 6rofessor of %ast Asian 6olitics at Ma"idson
Colle e, an F6+& senior fellow, <hat %"ery American 'eeds to (now a)out ?aiwan, Fe)ruary, http://www.fpri.or /footnotes/-.D..>>S>4.ri er.taiwan.html# ;s ,ai#an headed for disaster, i"en all these trends and contradictionsR ?ed 8alen Carpenter1s America1s Comin <ar with China: A Collision Course o"er ?aiwan (6al ra"e, .>>D# )e ins, middles, and ends #ith the idea that ,ai#an is going to declare independence and that the U%S% is going to -e dra#n into a #ar #ith China , )ecause that1s what ?aiwan is oin to do. & would say that this is a completel" #rong interpretation of the realities of ,ai#an societ" and p -lic opinion. &n fact, the onl" reason #e might enco nter a crisis in the ,ai#an strait #o ld -e if .ei/ing decided that it co ld no longer #ait for the trend of economic inte ration and the softening of hostilities - ilt p as a res lt of civil #ar and decades of conflict to wor* their ma ic% ;f .ei/ing decides that it cant #ait for those thin s and tries to compel ,ai#an to accept nification )efore ?aiwan is ready, then #e co ld have pro-lems. :ut the 6+C isn1t li*ely to do that )ecause of the costs to it of doin so and
)ecause the trend to see* formal independence and chan e the name of +JC has already pea*ed. ?he 6+C can increasin ly see that on the other side of that hill, the prospects for some *ind of accommodation )etween these two sides are actually loo*in )etter.
,ai#an isolation is more li!el" to ca se conflict ;!egami P ($asa*o &*e ami O 6rofessor and Mirector of the Center for 6acific Asia
Studies (C6AS# at Stoc*holm Gni"ersity. She holds Moctor of Sociolo y from Gni"ersity of ?o*yo, and a 6h.M. in peace V conflict research from Gppsala Gni"ersity, Sweden. Fer research interests include Asian security V confidence )uildin , arms control V disarmament and non0proliferation issues. 40.30.>>3, ?he 7amestown Foundation, ?ime for Conflict 6re"ention Across the ?aiwan Strait, http://www.@amestown.or /pro rams/china)rief/sin le/Rt9!ttnews[H:tt!news [HM\/3..Vt9!ttnews[H:)ac*6id[HM\-D3Vno!cache\-# &ndeed, a cross0Strait conflict is potentially one of the most dangero s conflicts in"ol"in t#o ma/or n clear po#ers, in which the ris* of escalation , in the worst case, cannot e9clude strate ic nuclear e9chan e. ?hus, it is understanda)le that many countries ma*e
such a statement of neutrality or remain )ystanders. ?he location of ?aiwan, howe"er, in the midst of the "ital sea lines of communications (SBJCs#, any le"el of armed conflict will ine"ita)ly en"elop an
international affair with lo)al conseLuences, economically, politically and militarily. :y nature, a cross0Strait conflict cannot )e a limited theatre of war. ?herefore, it would reatly
impro"e conflict pre"ention if 'A?J could at a minimum maintain its own "ersion of strate ic am)i uity to ma*e :ei@in 1s calculation of usin force more difficult, less optimistic, and there)y more prudent N=P. ?he recent lar e0 scale na"al e9ercise conducted )y the Gnited States, 7apanese, Australian, &ndian and Sin aporean na"ies in Septem)er .>>S mi ht ha"e aimed at such a si nallin effect toward China. &t will also )e constructi"e if %urope, to ether with other <estern countries, were to ma*e :ei@in understand that any armed attac* on ?aiwan would lead to worldwide criticism and )oycotts of Chinese products. ?o lea"e the issue to :ei@in 0?aipei )ilateral tal*s is not a
solution either. &n the -==>s, former ?aiwanese 6resident Bee ?en 0hui secretly sent an en"oy to Fon (on to ne otiate with :ei@in on cross0Strait political issues )ut apparently failed to )rin any constructi"e outcomes and, conseLuently, Bee resorted to declarin the contro"ersial meetin special state0to0state relations (::C, 7uly .>, .>>>#. Bi*ely, China1s Jne0China principle and $a Ein 0@eou1s claim of so"erei nty country would hardly coalesce. 8i"en the power disparity )etween :ei@in and ?aipei, any )ilateral tal*s on eLual terms are impossi)le and unrealistic. 8i"en :ei@in 1s persistence on its old0fashioned so"erei nty concept and territorial inte rity, any )ilateral tal*s would ine"ita)ly end up as a cruel power ame, in which
the a)sorption of ?aiwan would )e imminent due to its relati"ely wea*er position. ;f .ei/ing / dges that ,ai#an is already wea* and isolated eno gh to allo# for Chinese militar" operations2 .ei/ing #o ld opt for the se of force to reali+e its nification aim. ?he current co0e9istence framewor* in the cross0Strait relationship is unsustaina)le, )ecause the framewor* lac*s a solid
round in terms of international law, and is instead su)@ect to the chan e of "arious "aria)les such as military power parity, international political dynamics, economic mer ers, and domestic social0political de"elopments in China and ?aiwan. &n such unsta)le circumstances, third0party inter"ention would )e constructi"e and helpful to create a win0win situation. &n this respect, %urope, which has a rich historical e9perience of transcendin national )orders throu h post0modern re ional cooperation, could pro"ide much inspiration and creati"e ideas for China and ?aiwan, helpin them to find a creati"e third way0out that )oth parties can comforta)ly accept. For instance, %urope could su est to :ei@in that a loose confederation or commonwealth to consolidate the current am)i uous co0e9istenceIneither unification nor independenceIwould )e a feasi)le peaceful solution accepta)le to )oth sides, as well as the international community. <hen the G.S.0China co0mana ement only muddles throu h the cross0Strait pro)lem without leadin to any fundamental solution, %urope1s rich e9periences of conflict pre"ention and mana ement could )e a new su)@ect worth studyin for the related parties in the Asia06acific.
,ai#an is ver" close to lashing o t #hen isolated -" China .l menthal @ (Man, Man :lumenthal is the director of Asian Studies at the American %nterprise &nstitute, where he
focuses on %ast Asian security issues and Sino0American relations. $r. :lumenthal has )oth ser"ed in and ad"ised the G.S. o"ernment on China issues for o"er a decade. From .>>- to .>>/, he ser"ed as senior director for China, ?aiwan, and $on olia at the Mepartment of Mefense. Additionally, he ser"ed as a commissioner on the con ressionally0mandated G.S.0China %conomic and Security +e"iew Commission since .>>D0.>-., and held the position of "ice chairman in .>>S. Fe has also ser"ed on the Academic Ad"isory :oard of the con ressional G.S.0China <or*in 8roup. $r. :lumenthal is the co0author of YAn Aw*ward %m)race: ?he Gnited States and China in the .-st CenturyY (A%& 6ress, 'o"em)er .>-.#. ?aipei ?imes2 GS policies dri"e nation's isolation, http://www.taipeitimes.com/'ews/editorials/archi"es/.>>S/>-/>=/.>>44//>44#
US polic" to#ard ,ai#an is riddled #ith pec liarities% ,ai#an is a li-eral democrac" #ith a prospero s2 free-mar!et econom" and is the ver" model of the !ind of Oresponsi-le sta!eholderO &ashington hopes China #ill -e in the f t re%
Despite its excl sion from donor conferences2 ,aipei has provided material s pport to the #ar on terrorism and reconstr ction efforts in ;ra: and Afghanistan% ;n addition2 it has s pported US co nter-proliferation efforts s ch as the 4roliferation Sec rit" ;nitiative% ;f ,ai#an is a model of freedom at home and responsi-ilit" a-road2 #h" is &ashingtonMs attit de to#ard ,aipei so
so rY
;t #asnMt s pposed to -e this #a"% ,he administration of US 4resident >eorge &% . sh came to po#er determined to change the perceived .ei/ing tilt of former US president .ill Clinton% . sh offered ,ai#an a genero s arms pac!age and made ,ai#an a OnormalO
,he president said that the US #o ld Odo #hatever it ta!esO to help ,ai#an defend itself% 5oreover2 after Sept% 112 $8812 attac!s in the US2 . sh form lated a Ofreedom agendaO to advance freedom
sec rit" partner2 allo#ing ,aipei to ma!e arms re: ests according to its o#n timeline as it so ght to fill its defense needs% #orld#ide% ;n that spirit2 he has s pported >eorgia2 U!raine and other co ntries formerl"
>iven the thr st of . shMs policies2 it is indeed odd that &ashington treats ,ai#an as a virt al pariah( h miliating ,aipei -" micromanaging transit stops -" its president and p -licl" #arning that Oindependence means #ar2O as if an" responsi-le leader in ,ai#an #ere p shing for formal independence% ,he US has also denied ,ai#an a 6ree ,rade Agreement2 despite granting them to less economicall" capa-le co ntries s ch as 5orocco2 Jordan and <man% ,he tr th is that there is practicall" no positive agenda -et#een ,aipei and &ashington% ,he US engages in onl" halfhearted efforts to help ,ai#an gain o-erver stat s in the &orld 'ealth Assem-l"% ;t has denied ,ai#an re: ests for pgraded 6-1Es despite a clear need for them% ,here has -een little effort to
incl de ,ai#an in the Ofreedom agendaO or the glo-al comm nit" of democracies that the . sh administration has to ted% ;ncl ding co ntries li!e Eg"pt and excl ding ,ai#an from that comm nit" damages the ver" idea it is - ilt on%
nder Soviet control2 despite 3 ssian protests%
Despite a gro#ing need for &ashington and ,aipei to coordinate their militar" plans2 the sec rit" relationship has not fared m ch -etter% 5ilitar" relations are still governed -" restrictions on visits -" US general officers that -egan d ring the administration of former US president Jimm" Carte r% ,he defense relationship largel"
rests on decisions made in the late "ears of the Clinton administration -- #hen US Department of Defense officials #o!e of ChinaMs increased militar" po#er%
&ashingtonMs #ea! s pport for ,ai#an #ill have serio s conse: ences2 especiall" as .ei/ing activel" ndermines ,ai#anMs de facto independent stat s% As China #or!s to isolate ,ai#an internationall" and intimidate it militaril"2 ,ai#anMs options are d#indling% Either it #ill lash o t or it #ill O6inlandi+e2O that is2 -ecome a China-compliant ne tral po#er% Neither option serves US interests% ,he former co ld provo!e China into starting a #ar2 #hile the latter #o ld res lt in a second So th
?orea-li!e democrac"2 #hich is no longer #illing to s pport US polic" in Asia%
p to the realit"
&hen ,ai#an feels cornered2 the" lasho t violentl" Do-ell @ (8raeme, 8raeme Mo)ell is a 7ournalism Fellow at the Bowy &nstitute. Fe has )een reportin on Australian and international politics, forei n affairs and defence, and the Asia 6acific since -=SH. Fe writes ?he Can)erra Column for ?he &nterpreter, the )lo of the Bowy &nstitute.5 8raeme was the A:C's South %ast Asia radio correspondent in Sin apore and did se"eral stints as the Can)erra0)ased Forei n Affairs V Mefence Correspondent for +adio Australia from -=S3 to .>>3, reportin also for A:C radio news and current affairs pro rams. Fe left this post in April .>>3 to )ecome +adio Australia's Associate %ditor for the Asia 6acific.5 Startin as a newspaper @ournalist in -=S-, 8raeme @oined the A:C in -=SH and concentrated on reportin politics and international affairs, ser"in as a correspondent in %urope, America and throu hout Asia and the 6acific.5 From -=3H, 8raeme focused on reportin the affairs of the Asia 6acific, co"erin the security dialo ue of the AS%A' +e ional Forum, the %ast Asia Summit and a do;en A6%C summits. Fe wor*ed as a @ournalist in the 6arliamentary 6ress 8allery in Can)erra in -=S303-, -=3D03= and
-==-0.>>3.5 Assi nments in his career as a correspondent ha"e included the Fal*lands <ar, coups in Fi@i, ?hailand and the 6hilippines, :ei@in after the crushin of the pro0democracy mo"ement in ?iananmen SLuare and the return of Fon (on to China.5 Fe is the author of 'Australia Finds Fome I ?he Choices and Chances of an Asia 6acific 7ourney', pu)lished in .>>>. China and ?aiwan in the South 6acific: Miplomatic Chess "ersus 6acific2 CSCSM Jccasional 6aper 'um)er -, $ay .>>S, 5 6olitical +u )y, http://chl.anu.edu.au/pu)lications/csds/cscsd!op-!/!chapter!-.pdf#
neither .ei/ing nor ,aipei give m ch attention to an" end game% . t if .ei/ing event all" o t-ids ,ai#an in the 4acific2 that ma" ma!e ,aipeis -ehavio r less predicta-le% A ,ai#an that no longer has an" 0international space1 Cor perhaps2 more acc ratel" 0diplomatic face1G #ill have less to lose% ;f China #ere to deprive ,ai#an of its six diplomatic flags in the So th 4acific2 #o ld that ma!e ,aipei more amena-le to .ei/ingY 'istor" and h man nat re hint that states pressed too hard can sometimes lash o t% 4erhaps China sho ld consider the potential for diplomatic victor" prod cing an nfort nate political o tcome an angr" or isolated ,ai#an that ma" -e more li!el" to -randish the independence #eapon%
,he harsh d"namics of the diplomatic chess game in the 4acific mean
A$( ,ai#an ;mpact ;ndep >ood
,ai#an freedom is !e" to m ltiple alliances2 relations #ith ;ndia2 and US hegemon" ,#ining 1A (Maniel O Foo"er &nstitution, ?he ?aiwan Binchpin, ./-,
http://www.hoo"er.or /pu)lications/policy0re"iew/article/-4=4=D# :ut arg ments to let ,ai#an go get strateg" -ac!#ards. First, c tting off an old U%S% all" at a time of rising tensions #ith an assertive China might do less to appease .ei/ing than to enco rage its hopes to - ll" the United States into a f rther retreat from its commitments in East Asia. Second, it #o ld transform the calc l s of vital American allies li!e Japan and So th ?orea, who might pla si-l" #onder #hether the U%S% commitment to their sec rit" #as e: all" flexi-le. ?hird, it #o ld pend the calc lations of ne# U%S% partners li!e ;ndia and *ietnam, #hose leaders have made a -et on U%S% sta"ing po#er and the associated -enefits of strengthening relation s #ith America as a hed e a ainst China. 6o rth2 s ch preemptive s rrender #o ld reinforce what remains more a ps"chological than a material realit" of China emerging as a glo-al s perpo#er of Americas standing I which it is not and may ne"er )e. Finally,
it would resurrect the hosts of $unich and Ealta, where reat powers decided the fate of lesser nations without reference to those nations1 interests I or the human conseLuences of offerin them up to satisfy the appetites of predatory reat powers.
N clear #ar ?agan @ (+o)ert, Senior Associate O Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace,
%nd of Mreams, +eturn of Fistory: &nternational +i"alry and American Beadership, 6olicy +e"iew, Au ust/Septem)er, http://www.hoo"er.or /pu)lications/policyre"iew/3HH.H-..htmlen->#
?he @ostlin for status and influence amon these am)itious nations and would0)e nations is a second definin feature of the new post0Cold <ar international system. 'ationalism in all its forms is )ac*, if it e"er went away, and so is international competition for
American predominance pre"ents these ri"alries from intensifyin I its re ional as well as its lo)al predominance . <ere the United States to diminish its influence in the re ions where it is currently the stron est power, the other nations would settle disputes as reat and lesser powers ha"e done in the past: sometimes throu h diplomacy and accommodation )ut often throu h confrontation and wars of "aryin scope, intensity, and destructi"eness. Jne no"el aspect of such a multipolar world is that most of these powers would possess n clear #eapons. ?hat could ma*e wars )etween them less li*ely, or it could simply ma*e them more catastrophic. &t is easy )ut also dan erous to underestimate the role the Gnited States plays in pro"idin a measure of sta)ility in the world e"en as it also disrupts
power, influence, honor, and status. sta)ility. For instance, the Gnited States is the dominant na"al power e"erywhere, such that other nations cannot compete with it e"en in their home waters. ?hey either happily or rud in ly allow the Gnited States 'a"y to )e the uarantor of international waterways and trade routes, of international access to mar*ets and raw materials such as oil. %"en when the Gnited States en a es in a war, it is a)le to play its role as uardian of the waterways. &n a more enuinely multipolar world, howe"er, it would not. 'ations would compete for na"al dominance at least in their own re ions and possi)ly )eyond. Conflict )etween nations would in"ol"e stru les on the oceans as well as on land. Armed em)ar os, of the *ind used in <orld <ar i and other ma@or conflicts, would disrupt trade flows in a way that is now impossi)le. Such order as e9ists in the world rests not only on the oodwill of peoples )ut also on American power. Such order as e9ists in the world rests not merely on the oodwill of peoples )ut on a foundation pro"ided )y American power. %"en the %uropean Gnion, that reat eopolitical miracle, owes its foundin to American power, for without it the %uropean nations after <orld <ar && would ne"er ha"e felt secure enou h to reinte rate 8ermany. $ost %uropeans recoil at the
%urope 1s sta)ility depends on the uarantee, howe"er distant and one hopes Gnited States could step in to chec* any dan erous de"elopment on the continent. &n a enuinely multipolar world, that would not )e possi)le without renewin the dan er of world war. 6eople who )elie"e reater eLuality amon nations would )e prefera)le to the present American predominance
thou ht, )ut e"en today unnecessary, that the often succum) to a )asic lo ical fallacy. ?hey )elie"e the order the world en@oys today e9ists independently of American power. ?hey ima ine that in a world where American power was diminished, the aspects of international order that they li*e would remain in place. :ut that 1s not the way it wor*s. &nternational order does not rest on ideas and institutions. &t is shaped )y confi urations of power. ?he international order we *now today reflects the distri)ution of power in the world since <orld <ar ii, and especially since the end of the Cold <ar. A different confi uration of power, a multipolar world in which the poles were +ussia, China, the Gnited
States, &ndia, and %urope, would produce its own *ind of order, with different rules and norms reflectin the interests of the powerful states that would ha"e a hand in shapin it. <ould that international order )e an impro"ementR 6erhaps for :ei@in and $oscow it would. :ut it is dou)tful that it would suit the tastes of enli htenment li)erals in the Gnited States and %urope. ?he current order, of course, is not only far from perfect )ut also offers no uarantee a ainst ma@or conflict amon the world 1s reat powers. %"en under
<ar could erupt )etween China and ?aiwan and draw in )oth the Gnited States and 7apan. <ar could erupt )etween +ussia and 8eor ia,
the um)rella of unipolarity, re ional conflicts in"ol"in the lar e powers may erupt. forcin the Gnited States and its %uropean allies to decide whether to inter"ene or suffer the conseLuences of a +ussian "ictory. Conflict )etween
%astern states. ?hese, too, could draw in other reat powers2 includin the Gnited States. Such conflicts may )e una"oida)le no matter what policies the Gnited States pursues. :ut they are more li*ely to erupt if the Gnited States wea*ens or withdraws from its positions of re ional dominance. ?his is especially true in %ast Asia, where
most nations a ree that a relia)le American power has a sta)ili;in and pacific effect on the re ion. ?hat is certainly the "iew of most of China 1s nei h)ors. :ut e"en China, which see*s radually to supplant the Gnited States as the dominant power in the re ion, faces the dilemma that an
&ndia and 6a*istan remains possi)le, as does conflict )etween &ran and &srael or other $iddle
American withdrawal could unleash an am)itious, independent, nationalist 7apan. Conflicts are more li*ely to erupt if the Gnited States withdraws from its positions of re ional dominance. &n %urope, too, the departure of the Gnited States from the scene I e"en if it remained the world1s most powerful nation I could )e desta)ili;in . &t could tempt +ussia to a n e"en more o"er)earin and potentially forceful approach to unruly nations on its periphery. Althou h some realist theorists seem to ima ine that the disappearance of the
So"iet Gnion put an end to the possi)ility of confrontation )etween +ussia and the <est, and therefore to the need for a permanent American role in %urope, history su ests that conflicts in %urope in"ol"in +ussia are possi)le e"en without So"iet communism. &f
this could in time increase the li*elihood of conflict in"ol"in +ussia and its near nei h)ors, which could in turn draw the United States )ac* in under unfa"ora)le circumstances.
the Gnited States withdrew from %urope I if it adopted what some call a strate y of offshore )alancin I
USD;ndia relations avert So th Asian n clear #ar

Schaffer $ (?eresita, Mir O South Asia 6ro am, CS&S, <ashin ton Auarterly, Sprin , Be9is# <ashin ton's increased interest in &ndia since the late -==>s reflects &ndia's economic e9pansion and position as Asia's newest risin power. 'ew Melhi, for its part, is ad@ustin to the end of the Cold <ar. As a result, )oth iant democracies see that they can )enefit )y closer cooperation. For <ashin ton, the ad"anta es include a wider networ* of friends in Asia at a time when the re ion is chan in rapidly, as well as a stron er position from which to help calm possi)le future n clear tensions in the re ion. %nhanced trade and in"estment )enefit )oth countries and are a prereLuisite for impro"ed G.S. relations with &ndia. For &ndia, the country's am)ition to assume a stron er leadership role in the world and to maintain an economy that lifts its people out of po"erty depends critically on ood relations with the Gnited States.
Japan alliance solves m ltiple threats --- escalates to glo-al n clear #ar%
>ates 11 (+o)ert, G.S. Secretary of Mefense, G.S.07apan Alliance a Cornerstone of Asian Security, Speech to (eio Gni"ersity, -0-/, http://www.defense. o"/speeches/speech.asp9Rspeechid\-H.=# J"er the course of its history, the G.S.07apan alliance has succeeded at its ori inal core purpose O to deter military a ression and pro"ide an um)rella of security under which 7apan O and the re ion O can prosper. ?oday , our alliance is rowin deeper and )roader as we address a ran e of security challen es in Asia. Some, li*e 'orth (orea, piracy or natural disasters, ha"e )een around for decades, centuries, or since the )e innin of time. Jthers, such as lo)al terrorist networ*s, cy)er attac*s, and nuclear proliferation are of a more recent "inta e. <hat these issues ha"e in common is that they all reLuire multiple nations wor*in to ether O and they also almost always reLuire leadership and in"ol"ement )y *ey re ional
players such as the G.S. and 7apan . &n turn, we e9press our shared "alues )y increasin
our alliance1s capacity to pro"ide humanitarian aid and disaster relief, ta*e part in peace0*eepin operations, protect the lo)al commons, and promote cooperation and )uild trust throu h stren thenin re ional institutions. %"eryone athered here *nows the cripplin de"astation that can )e caused )y natural disasters O and the G.S. and 7apan, alon with our partners in the re ion, reco ni;e that respondin to these crises is a security imperati"e. &n recent years, G.S. and 7apanese forces deli"ered aid to remote earthLua*e0stric*en re ions on &ndonesia, and G.S. aircraft )ased in 7apan helped deli"er assistance to typhoon "ictims in :urma. <e wor*ed to ether in response to the .>>/ &ndian Jcean tsunami, earthLua*es in 7a"a, Sumatra, and Faiti, and most recently followin the floods in 6a*istan. ?hese efforts ha"e demonstrated the forward deployment of G.S. forces in 7apan is of real and life0sa"in "alue. ?hey also pro"ide new opportunities for the G.S. and 7apanese forces to operate to ether )y conductin @oint e9ercises and missions. Furthermore, G.S. and 7apanese troops ha"e )een wor*in on the lo)al sta e to confront the threat of failed or failin states. 7apanese peace*eepers ha"e operated around the world, includin the 8olan Fei hts and %ast ?imor and assisted with the reconstruction of &raL. &n Af hanistan, 7apan represents the second lar est financial donor, ma*in su)stanti"e contri)utions to the international effort )y fundin the salaries of the Af han 'ational 6olice and helpin the Af han o"ernment inte rate former insur ents. 7apan and the Gnited States also continue to cooperate closely to ensure the maritime commons are safe and secure for commercial traffic. Jur maritime forces wor* hand0in0 lo"e in the <estern 6acific as well as in other sea passa es such as the Strait of $alacca )etween $alaysia and &ndonesia, where more than a third of the world1s oil and trade shipments pass throu h e"ery year. Around the Forn of Africa, 7apan has deployed surface ships and patrol aircraft that operate alon side those from all o"er the world drawn )y the common oal to counter piracy in "ital sea lanes. 6articipatin in these acti"ities thrusts 7apan1s military into a relati"ely new, and at times sensiti"e role, as an e9porter of security. ?his is a far cry from the situation of e"en two decades a o when, as & remem)er well as a senior national security official, 7apan was critici;ed for so0called chec*)oo* diplomacy O sendin money )ut not troops O to help the anti0Saddam coalition durin the First 8ulf <ar. :y showin more willin ness to send self0defense forces a)road under international auspices O consistent with your constitution O 7apan is ta*in its ri htful place alon side the world1s other reat democracies. ?hat is part of the rationale for 7apan1s )ecomin a permanent mem)er of a reformed Gnited 'ations Security Council. And since these challen es cannot )e tac*led
we must use the stron G.S.07apanese partnership as a platform to do more to stren then multilateral institutions O re ional arran ements that must )e inclusi"e,
throu h )ilateral action alone,
transparent, and focused on results. 7ust a few months a o, & attended the historic first meetin of the AS%A' 6lus %i ht Mefense $inisters $eetin in Fanoi, and am encoura ed )y 7apan1s decision to co0chair the $ilitary $edicine <or*in 8roup. And as a proud 6acific nation, the Gnited States will ta*e o"er the chairmanship of the Asia 6acific %conomic Cooperation Forum this year, followin 7apan1s successful tenure. <or*in throu h re ional and international forums puts our alliance in the )est position to confront some of Asia1s tou hest security challen es. As we ha"e )een reminded once a ain in recent wee*s, none has pro"ed to )e more "e9in and endurin than 'orth (orea. Mespite the hopes and )est efforts of the South (orean o"ernment, the G.S. and our allies, and the international community, the character and priorities of the 'orth (orean re ime sadly ha"e not chan ed. 'orth (orea1s a)ility to launch another con"entional round in"asion is much de raded from e"en a decade or so a o, )ut in other respects it has rown more lethal and desta)ili;in . ?oday, it is 'orth (orea1s pursuit of nuclear
weapons and proliferation of nuclear *now0how and )allistic missile eLuipment that ha"e focused our attention O de"elopments that threaten not @ust the peninsula, )ut the 6acific +im and international sta)ility as well. &n response to a series of pro"ocations O the most recent )ein the sin*in of the Cheonan and 'orth
(orea1s lethal shellin of a South (orean island O 7apan has stood shoulder to shoulder with the +epu)lic of (orea and the Gnited States. Jur three countries continue to deepen our ties throu h the Mefense ?rilateral ?al*s O the *ind of multilateral en a ement amon America1s lon 0standin allies that the G.S. would li*e to see stren thened and e9panded o"er time. <hen and if 'orth (orea1s )eha"ior i"es us any reasons to )elie"e that ne otiations can )e conducted producti"ely and in ood faith, we will wor* with 7apan, South (orea, +ussia, and China to resume en a ement with 'orth (orea throu h the si9 party tal*s. ?he first step in the process should )e a 'orth0South en a ement. :ut, to )e clear, the 'orth must also ta*e concrete steps to honor its international o)li ations and comply with G.'. Security Council +esolutions. Any pro ress towards diffusin the crisis on the (orean 6eninsula must include the acti"e support of the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China O where, as you pro)a)ly *now, & @ust finished an official "isit. China has )een another important player whose economic rowth has fueled the prosperity of this part of the world, )ut Luestions a)out its intentions and opaLue military moderni;ation pro ram ha"e )een a source of concern to its nei h)ors. Auestions a)out China1s rowin role in the re ion manifest themsel"es in territorial disputes O most recently in the incident in Septem)er near the Sen*a*u &slands, an incident that ser"ed as a reminder of the important of America1s and 7apan1s treaty o)li ations to one another. ?he G.S. position on maritime security remains clear: we ha"e a national interest in freedom of na"i ation2 in unimpeded economic de"elopment and commerce2 and in respect for international law. <e also )elie"e that customary international law, as reflected in the G' Con"ention on the Baw of the Sea, pro"ides clear uidance on the appropriate use of the maritime domain, and ri hts of access to it. 'onetheless, & disa ree with those who portray China as an ine"ita)le strate ic ad"ersary of the Gnited States. <e welcome a China that plays a constructi"e role on the world sta e. &n fact, the oal of my "isit was to impro"e our military0to0military relationship and outline areas of common interest. &t is precisely )ecause we ha"e Luestions a)out China1s military O @ust as they mi ht ha"e similar Luestions a)out the Gnited States O that & )elie"e a healthy dialo ue is needed. Bast fall, 6resident J)ama and 6resident Fu 7in ?ao made a commitment to ad"ance sustained and relia)le defense ties, not a relationship repeatedly interrupted )y and su)@ect to the "a aries of political weather. Jn a personal note, one of the thin s & learned from my e9perience dealin with the So"iet Gnion durin my earlier time in o"ernment was the importance of maintainin a strate ic dialo ue and open lines of communication. %"en if specific a reements did not result O on nuclear weapons or anythin else O this dialo ue helped us understand each other )etter and lessen the odds of misunderstandin and miscalculation. ?he Cold <ar is mercifully lon o"er and the circumstances with China today are "astly different O )ut the importance of maintainin dialo ue is as important today. For the last few minutes &1"e discussed some of the most pressin security challen es O alon with the most fruitful areas of re ional cooperation O facin the G.S. and 7apan in Asia. ?his en"ironment O in terms of threats and opportunities O is mar*edly different than the conditions that led to the for in of the G.S07apan defense partnership in the conte9t of a ri"alry )etween two lo)al superpowers. :ut on account of the scope, comple9ity and lethality of these challen es, & would ar ue that our alliance is more necessary, more rele"ant, and more important than e"er. And maintainin the "itality and credi)ility of the alliance reLuires moderni;in our force posture and other defense arran ements to )etter reflect the threats and military reLuirements of this century. For e9ample, 'orth (orea1s )allistic missiles O alon with the proliferation of these weapons to other countries O reLuire a more effecti"e alliance missile defense capa)ility. ?he G.S.07apan partnership in missile defense is already one of the most ad"anced of its *ind in the world. &t was American and 7apanese A%8&S ships that to ether monitored the 'orth (orean missile launches of .>>D and .>>3. ?his partnership Owhich relies on mutual support, cuttin ed e technolo y, and information sharin O in many ways reflect our alliance at its )est. ?he G.S. and 7apan ha"e nearly completed the @oint de"elopment of a new ad"anced interceptor, a system that represents a Lualitati"e impro"ement in our a)ility to thwart any 'orth (orean missile attac*. ?he co0location of our air0 and missile0defense commands at Eo*ota O and the associated opportunities for information sharin , @oint trainin , and coordination in this area O pro"ide enormous "alue to )oth countries. As & alluded to earlier, ad"ances )y the Chinese military in cy)er and anti0satellite warfare pose a potential challen e to the a)ility of our forces to operate and communicate in this part of the 6acific. Cy)er attac*s can also come from any direction and from a "ariety of sources O state, non0state, or a com)ination thereof O in ways that could inflict enormous dama e to ad"anced, networ*ed militaries and societies. Fortunately, the G.S. and 7apan maintain a Lualitati"e ed e in satellite and computer technolo y O an ad"anta e we are puttin to ood use in de"elopin ways to counter threats to the cy)er and space domains. 7ust last month, the 8o"ernment of 7apan too* another step forward in the e"olution of the alliance )y releasin its 'ational Mefense 6ro ram 8uidelines O a document that lays out a "ision for 7apan1s defense posture. ?hese uidelines en"ision: A more mo)ile and deploya)le force structure2 %nhanced &ntelli ence, Sur"eillance, and +econnaissance capa)ilities2 and A shift in focus to 7apan1s southwest islands. ?hese new uidelines pro"ide an opportunity for e"en deeper cooperation )etween our two countries O and the emphasis on your southwestern islands underscores the importance of our alliance1s force posture. And this is a *ey point. :ecause e"en as the alliance continues to e"ol"e O in strate y, posture, and military capa)ilities O to deal with this century1s security challen es, a critical component will remain the forward presence of G.S. military forces in 7apan.
<ithout such a presence: 'orth (orea1s military pro"ocations could )e e"en more outra eous 00 or worse2 China mi ht )eha"e more asserti"ely towards its nei h)ors2
&t would ta*e lon er to e"acuate ci"ilians affected )y conflict or natural disasters in the re ion2 &t would )e more
difficult and costly to conduct ro)ust @oint e9ercises O such as the recent (een Sword e9ercise O that hone the G.S. and 7apanese militaries a)ility to operate and, if necessary, fi ht to ether2 and <ithout the forward presence of G.S. forces in 7apan, there would )e less info rmation sharin and coordination, and we would
*now less a)out re ional threats and the military capa)ilities of our potential ad"ersaries.
A$( ,ai#an ;mpact- Defense

Alt ca se- Africa
.roo!es and Shin E (6eter, Mirector of the Asian Studies Center O Ferita e, and 7i Fye, +esearch Assistant in the Asian Studies Center O Ferita e, China's &nfluence in Africa: &mplications for the Gnited States, ?he Ferita e Foundation, .0.., http://www.herita e.or /research/reports/.>>D/>./chinas0influence0in0africa0 implications0for0the0united0states# Another significant Chinese o-/ective in Africa is to isolate ,ai#an diplomaticall" in an effort to press re ,aipei to#ard nification% Seven African co ntries-. r!ina 6aso2 Chad2 >am-ia2 5ala#i2 Sao ,ome and 4rincipe2 Senegal2 and S#a+iland-c rrentl" maintain official diplomatic relations #ith ,ai#an. C rtailing ,ai#anMs diplomatic infl ence #as not a high priorit" on ChinaMs Africa polic" agenda ntil the earl" 1HH8s2 #hen the competition -et#een China and ,ai#an to #in diplomatic recognition from individ al African co ntries escalated drasticall" . 'ow, throu h offers of massi"e economic assistance, .ei/ing has sec red recognition from six additional African co ntries at ,ai#anMs expense. Besotho and 'i er switched their diplomatic reco nition to the 6+C in -==/ and -==D, respecti"ely. ?he Central African +epu)lic, 8uinea0:issau, and South Africa switched their reco nition from ?aipei to :ei@in in -==3, and Bi)eria switched reco nition to :ei@in in .>>4 shortly )efore China dispatched 6BA troops to assist with Bi)erian water0supply pro@ects. ;n addition to ongoing efforts to sever ,ai#anMs fe# remaining connections in Africa2 China has also so ght repeatedl" to maintain the s pport of its African partners for its Oone ChinaO polic" via diplomatic attention2 economic investment2 and other assistance.
China doesnt need to expand infl ence UN veto po#er is s fficient to press re co ntries Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er,
$assachusetts. Bi has pu)lished do;ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies, 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism, ?he Fistorian, 6olicy Studies 7ournal, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science, Asian 6erspecti"e, American 7ournal of Chinese Studies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e, ->0-0$88F N+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep.>>H, Col. -> &ssue ., pSS, http://lin*.sprin er.com/content/pdf/->.->>S/:F>.3SS>.=.pdf, s)ha P A veto po#er at the UN Sec rit" Co ncil provides China #ith a ver" po#erf l #eapon to re#ard or p nish its friends and foes. .4 Since China was seated in the Gnited 'ations in -=S-, it has rarely us ed its "eto power. Eet 2 it is not hesitant to se its veto if crossed over the matter of ,ai#an . &n 7une -==D, China fo ght the extension of the UN mission in 'aiti2 to p nish the Cari--ean nation for its appeal for UN acceptance of ,ai#an . Mespite a peace treaty si nalin the end of 8uatemala's lon 0runnin uerrilla war, China stalled a 7anuary -==S G' motion to appro"e -HH peace*eepers to o"ersee
disarmament )ecause of 8uatemala's ties with ?aiwan. ?his was only the third "eto :ei@in has used since it reentered the G' in the early -=S>s. &n the words of Shen 8uofan , then Chinese Forei n $inistry spo*esperson, Y > atemalaMs ties #ith ,ai#an had destro"ed an" -asis for cooperation from .ei/ing in the United Nations%Y ./ &n contrast, then 6resident Bee ?en 0hui "owed that ?aiwan would Ydo whate"er it canY to help its Central American ally. .H China let it pass after e9tractin a compromise from 8uatemala that it would no lon er support ?aipei1s G' mem)ership )id. .D ChinaMs veto po#er as a permanent mem-er of the UN Sec rit" Co ncil ena-les it to exert press re )ecause Faiti's internal insta)ility ma*es it dependent on peace*eepin troops. &ndeed, it is this tr mp card the 43C holds that means that ,ai#an is largel" na-le to sec re recognition from economicall" f nctioning nations . 'ot many countries in the re ion wish to )e the first to defy China and ris* the almost certain economic and political retri)ution that mi ht follow.
,ai#an-China relations higher than ever Cole 1$ 00 ?aipei0)ased @ournalist who focuses on military issues in 'ortheast Asia
and in the ?aiwan Strait (7. $ichael, =/4, Y?aiwan Fed es its :ets on China,Y http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints0)lo /.>-./>=/>4/taiwan0hed es0its0)ets0a ainst0 china/# ." a n m-er of "ardstic!s2 relations in the ,ai#an Strait toda" are the -est the"ve -een in "ears2 if not ever. :ut if a report released )y ?aiwan1s $inistry of 'ational
Mefense ($'M# on Friday is any indication, ?aiwanese o"ernment officials don1t appear to )e con"inced that such datente will last for "ery lon . <ithout dou)t, the pace of normali+ation in relations
-et#een ,ai#an and China2 especially at the economic le"el, has accelerated dramaticall" since 5a Ein 0@eou of the Chinese 'ationalist 6arty (($?# #as elected in .>>3, a
process that is e9pected to continue with $a securin a second four0year term in 7anuary. &n addition to the landmar* %conomic Cooperation Framewor* A reement (%CFA# si ned in 7une .>->, the o"ernments on )oth sides ha"e in*ed at least -D a reements touchin on "arious aspects of cross0strait relations, includin an a reement reached on Friday that will allow )an*s in ?aiwan to clear renmin)i transactions, a mo"e that o)"iates the need for con"ertin the currency into G.S. dollars )efore a transaction can )e made. :eyond trade, visits to ,ai#an
-" Chinese officials have -ecome almost ro tine, a limited n m-er of Chinese can no# st d" at ,ai#ans niversities, Chinese to rism to the island has -oomed, and /oint exercises -" the co ntries respective coast g ards are no# held ever" other "ear since .>->, mostly for the purpose of sea0rescue operations in the waters
off ?aiwan1s (inmen and China1s Wiamen.
No militar" invasion to regain ,ai#an - -the"Mll se other methods 6ischer 11D$@ 00 clean ener y entrepreneur and is the founder and C%J of
Bumicity Btd (?ristan, .>-., Y <hy China could in"ade ?aiwan O and et away with it,Y http://www.historyfuturenow.com/wp/why0china0could0in"ade0taiwan0and0 et0 away0with0it/# ,he 4eoples 3ep -lic of China has -een ver" patient #ith ,ai#an. ;t !no#s that time is on its side% Fowe"er, it co ld also force the iss e #ithin the next fe# "ears and force ,ai#an to re/oin mainland China under the authority of the 6+C. ;t co ld sho# ,ai#an a stic! and a carrot . ,he stic! is that mainland China #ill invade to reesta-lish control o"er ?aiwan. .oth the ,ai#anese
o"ernment and the mainland Chinese government sa" that the" are not separate nations2 - t one2 #ith different governments. ,he US #o ld not enter into a 0civil #ar1 #ith the t#o Chinas. &n addition, -earing in mind that the US has a h ge trade deficit #ith -oth China and ,ai#an and that the ?aiwan Straits are effecti"ely already off limits to the GS 'a"y, it is hard to see the US defending ,ai#an , even if it co ld afford to do so2 #hich it cannot2 or #ere a-le to do so2 #hich it co ld not. As a carrot, the mainland Chinese mar!et has -ecome increasingl" attractive to ,ai#anese - sinesses. ?he 43C co ld offer increased incentives, such as low cost loans from the 6+C, to ,ai#anese companies2 and -etter mar!et access ma!ing the - siness classes increasingl" open to re nification with mainland China.
&ont happen no political #ill for independence in ,ai#an

+o)ert S. 3oss is one of the foremost American specialists on Chinese forei n and defense policy and G.S.0China relations. Fe is a professor of political science at :oston Colle e, associate of the Fair)an* Center for Chinese Studies at Far"ard Gni"ersity, senior ad"isor of the security studies pro ram at the $assachusetts &nstitute of ?echnolo y, and a mem)er of the Council on Forei n +elations, $88E N?aiwan's fadin &ndependence $o"ement, Forei n Affairs, Col. 3H, 'o. . ($ar. 0 Apr., .>>D#, pp. -/-0-/3, http://www.@stor.or /sta)le/.>>4-=-S, s)ha Pkk%rrors that appear in the document occur )ecause of the 6MF Formattin +%A(&'8 G6 &S FA+M ?J MJ ?A&<A' SFA+%S a culture, lan ua e, and herita e with mainland China. :ut after ?aiwan's half century of autonomy, economic pro ress, and democrati;ation, and the resultin contrast )etween ?aiwan and authoritarian China, many on the island ha"e de"eloped a strong sense of O,ai#an identit"2O and they )elie"e that ?aiwan now merits international reco nition as a so"erei n country. :y the mid0= os, the Y?aiwan identityY mo"ement had )ecome a ma@or force in ?aiwanese politics. :ut it has not res lted in #idespread calls for a formal declaration of independence% *oters2 reflecting .ei/ingMs militar" and economic hold on the island2 have preferred to accommodate ChinaMs opposition to ,ai#anMs independence. :y .>>>, than*s to its accelerated missile and aircraft deployments, .ei/ing had developed the capa-ilit" to destro" ,ai#an's prosper ity )efore the Gnited States would ha"e time to inter"ene. %Lually mportant, the rapid rowth of ChinaMs econom" has given .ei/ing leverage over ,ai#an's economy. &n .ool, the mainland -ecame ,aMi#anMs most important export mar!et (in .>>H, it )ou ht appro9 imatelE /> percent of ?aiwan's e9ports#, and since $88$2 more than half of ,ai#anMs foreign investment has gone there% &itho t firing a shot , therefore, China co ld ca se chaos in ,ai#an% As a res lt of such factors, Chen and other politicians #ho s pport independence do not command m ch s pport among ,ai#anMs voters% For a decade, opinion polls ha"e consistently reported that appro9imately H8 percent of the electorate opposes immediately declarin independence. &ndeed, Chen's political success reflects electoral a)errations rather than the popularity of his policy toward the mainland. Fe won the presidency in.>>>o with 4= percent of the "ote only )ecause the opposition split )etween his two com petitors. Althou h he won a ma@ority in .>>/, it was the only time his party has done so since the country )e an holdin presidential elections in -==D. And in
.>>/, Chen won )y only a o.i percent mar in0after an alle ed assassination attempt on Chen and his unnin mate the day )efore the "ote. Mespite the widespread )e lief that ?aiwan has an identity separate from China's, voters have consistentl" -ac!ed the so-called mainlander parties, includin the (uomintan (($?#, which was lon associated with "iolent repression of the democracy mo"ement. ?he ($? attracted popular support even #hen it was led -" a lac!l ster presidential candidate and #as infamo s for its corr ption% Mespite his shallow support and the mainland's rowin a)ility to desta)ili;e ?aiwan, Chen has continued to ris* war )y pushin for independence. &n the run0up to the le islati"e elections of Mecem)er .>>/, for e9ample, he and his supporters repeatedly indicated that they mi ht see* to adopt a new constitution that would reflect what he called ?aiwan's Ypresent realities,Y perhaps )y chan in the country's formal name from Ythe +epu)lic of ChinaY to Ythe +epu)lic of ?aiwanY or )y renouncin ?aipei's formal territorial claims to the mainland. :ei@in has lon maintained that it would consider such chan es acts of war. :ut Chen and his supporters dismissed such threats as empty tal*, ar uin that China's domestic pro)lems (such as hi h unemploy ment, rural insta)ility, and the re ime's declinin le itimacy#, com)ined with the G.S. commitment to defend ?aiwan, had reduced China to a Ypaper ti er.Y .ei/ing responded to Chen's provocations -" escalating its threats to se force2 prompting the . sh administration to step in and disco rage ,aipei from s ch moves. 6resident 8eor e <. :ush e"en pu)licly critici;ed Chen and affirmed his opposition to ?aiwanese independence in a @oint press conference with China's president, Fu 7intao, in 'o"em)er .>>/. ?he M66 lost the elections, frustratin Chen's plan to amend the constitution.
Economic development is irrelevant its a diplomatic competition2 not trade--ased

Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er, $assachusetts. Bi has pu)lished do;ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies, 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism, ?he Fistorian, 6olicy Studies 7ournal, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science, Asian 6erspecti"e, American 7ournal of Chinese Studies, Asian Affairs, and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e, ->0-0$88F N+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America, 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep.>>H, Col. -> &ssue ., pSS, http://lin*.sprin er.com/content/pdf/->.->>S/:F>.3SS>.=.pdf, s)ha P Lo--"ing Latin American s pport at the United Nations is of cr cial importance for -oth .ei/ing and ,aipei. <hile many of ?aiwan1s diplomatic allies may not ha"e much )ilateral state )usiness to do with mainland China, they ha"e )ecome increasin ly in"ol"ed in the G' system in terms of their economic and security interests. Some Central American and the Cari))ean nations that ha"e diplomatic relations with ?aiwan are amon the stalwart )ac*ers of ?aiwan1s G' mem)ership )id. &n spite of stron opposition from :ei@in , ?aipei has mana ed to arner support to raise that issue at the G' since the early -==>s. Jn Au ust D, -==4, :eli;e, Costa +ica, %l Sal"ador, 8uatemala, Fonduras, 'icara ua, and 6anama @ointly reLuested that the G' 8eneral Assem)ly include a new a enda item entitled consideration of e9ceptional situation of the +epu)lic of China in ?aiwan in
the international conte9t, )ased on the principle of uni"ersality. .S ;n $88K2 ,ai#an la nched its t#elfth -id to enter the United Nations2 #ith fifteen allies presenting a case #hich for the first time refers to c rrent high tensions #ith China2 arg ing the" #ill -e alleviated if the island /oins the #orld -od"% 6o r of these fifteen allies are from Central America and the Cari--ean. Since the late -=3>s, China has adopted a cautious and conser"ati"e attitude toward G' peace*eepin operations. .3 .ei/ing has tried to -olster its image as a responsi-le -ig po#er% For that reason, :ei@in has )een more careful to use the "eto power e"en if ?aiwan issue is in"ol"ed in the case. For instance, in Fe)ruary .>>/, China "oted for (not a ainst# the G' resolution of deployment of a multinational force in Faiti to restore law and order in the Cari))ean country thou h Faiti maintains diplomatic ties with ?aipei. &n Septem)er .>>/, China dispatched a -4>0 man special police unit to Faiti to )e part of a G' peace*eepin unit. &t is the first deployment of Chinese forces to the <estern Femisphere. ,hat sho#s that Chinas eagerness and capacit" to pla" an increasingl" important role in the &estern 'emisphere . &n addition, China has participated in regional agencies of the United Nations2 s ch as UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Cari))ean (%CBAC# since the 6+C returned to G' in the early -=S>s. +e ional Jr ani;ations $eanwhile, ?aiwan and the 6+C ha"e intensified their competition in re ional international or ani;ations in Batin America and the Cari))ean. China is pushin for re ional political and economic roupin it mi ht play a *ey role. :ei@in was attracted )y the &nter0American Me"elopment :an* (&M:# in an effort to accelerate economic relation with Batin American countries. &n Septem)er -==4, China officially applied to @oin the &M:. China was willin to allow the model for dual participation on the &nternational Jlympic Committee (&JC# and the Asian Me"elopment :an* (AM:#, which disallowed the use the name of the +epu)lic of China. &n 7une -==/, China )ecame the first Asian country to )e an o)ser"er to the Batin American &nte ration Association. &n $ay -==S, China was admitted into the +&CAB+E :%?<%%' ?A&<A' A'M ?F% 6+C &' BA?&' A$%+&CA 3S Cari))ean Me"elopment :an*. Since the late -==>s, :ei@in has )een interested in the %ast Asia0Batin American Forum. &n $arch .>>-, then Forei n $inister ?an 7ia9uan attended the first forei n ministers meetin of the %ast Asia0Batin American Forum held in Santia o, Chile. &n spite of :ei@in 1s stron opposition for ?aiwan to @oin international or ani;ations, ?aiwan has steadily )een ainin international reco nition as an economic entity. &t participated alon side Fon (on and :ei@in in the Asia06acific %conomic Cooperation (A6%C# conference held in Seoul in -==- and ained official mem)ership in the forum under the name Chinese ?aipei. &n .>>>, the +JC )ecame an official o)ser"er of the System for &nte ration of Central America (S&CA#, the first from outside of the <estern Femisphere. $oreo"er, ?aiwan has esta)lished formal wor*in relations with the &M: and the Central American :an* for +econstruction and Me"elopment as well. ;n general2 -oth ,aipei and .ei/ing have attempted to shore p their infl ence in Latin America thro gh more extensive contacts% ,his involved not onl" the traditional methods of lavish entertainment for visiting Latin American leaders2 - t also increased their exchanges #ith representatives of political parties2 la-or gro ps2 #omens organi+ations2 and militar" officials% ,hese exchanges2 also !no#n as 0visit diplomac"21 cost them comparativel" little in monetar" terms - t #ere sef l in - ilding a -roader -ase of political infl ence%

China Generic - DDI 2013

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China Generic - DDI 2013

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China Disadvantage

1NC China Econ

China is developing trade and militar" ties in Americas neigh-orhood %) ?his is

or ani;ed and often politically well0connected

Econ decline ca ses #ar

an economic crisis in lo)al economy, the crisis would

China is developing trade and militar" ties in Americas neigh-orhood %) ?his is

Chinese infl ence !e" to prevent ,ai#an independence Li 8@

>oes glo-al and n clear

ressi"e e9pansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia, as well as the 6acific

1NC Uni: eness

China is developing trade and militar" ties in Americas neigh-orhood %) ?his is

$NC Uni: eness

Chinas comparative advantage ma" -e eroding d e to increased prod ction costs

Chinese infl ence is high no# the U%S% is slipping

#ith ChinaMs economic -oom2 the s ppl" of energ" and

China ;nfl ence 'igh 4op larit"

China ;nfl ence 'igh U%S% A-andonment

,rade -et#een China and Latin America #as / st

China ;nfl ence 'igh A$( U%S% .igger

Not for long - U%S% is falling and China is gaining Cerna 11

;nfl ence is -ased on perception China is -eating the U%S% Ellis 11

China ;nfl ence 'igh A$( E rope

Chinas relationships with each country in the region, - ild a -road

anti United States coalition

Lin! A$( Not Rero S m

Chinas gro#ing clo t

in the region and how it can

pset -alances of po#er%

Lin! A$( Not Rero S m <il Spec

Lin! A$( <nl" <il is Rero S m

Lin! A$( ;ts ,oo Late

China has given -illions in loans and aid

ested that 6resident

5exico is a !e" partner for China in Latin America .randt 1$

Lin! 5exico A$( Competes #ith China

Lin! 5exico ?$ LA 3egion

Lin! 5exico EE !$ >ain 6oothold

fertile gro nd for more investment, especially in the manufacturin

sector. And accordin to ?he Financial ?imes, :+&C countries

reater contact with friends,

C -a remains the strategicall" important state

relations )etween nei

Lin! A$( C -a Doesnt Spillover

Lin! *ene+ ela

China fills in a-sent U%S% engagement in *ene+ ela Arsena lt 1A

Chinese Econom" 1NC

Econ decline ca ses #ar

Chinese Econom" $NC

A$( Collapse Doesnt >o N clear

Ext China Collapse Escalates

Ext Latin America ?$ Econ

Latin America is !e" to the Chinese econom"-Ne# mar!ets are

http://www.airpower.ma9well.af.mil/ap@international/ap@0 s/.>>D/4tri>D/ellisen .html#

Latin America is !e" to the Chinese econom" .lac!more 1A

Chinese <il $NC

Chinese energ" insec rit" ca ses Asia #ar

Ext China <il ;DL

;n ret rn2 China is offering aid that helps Chave+

Chinese economic ties !e" to <il imports 6erchen 1$

,he main -eneficiaries of the )oom in economic

China #ill contin e to explore increased investment

Ext China &ar