Wmi Alhap Final Report 2006

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Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report
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ALBERTA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT
FINAL REPORT 2006

Terry W. Krauss, PhD
krausst@telusplanet.net
Editor
A Program for Seeding Convective Clouds with Glaciogenic Nuclei to Mitigate Urban Hail Damage in the Province of Alberta, Canada
by Weather Modification Inc. 3802 - 20th Street North Fargo, North Dakota U.S.A. 58102 www.weathermod.com for Alberta Severe Weather Management Society Calgary, Alberta Canada October 2006
Weather Modification Inc.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report summarizes the activities and data collected during the 2006 field operations of the Alberta Hail Suppression Project. This was the eleventh year of operations by Weather Modification Inc. (WMI) of Fargo, North Dakota under contract with the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society of Calgary, Alberta. 2006 is the first year of the 3rd 5-year contract cycle for this on-going program. The program continues to be funded entirely by private insurance companies in Alberta with the sole intent to mitigate the damage to urban property caused by hail. The cloud-seeding project was renewed in 2001 because the insurance losses due to hail were approximately 50% less than expected during the first five-year contract period 1996-2000. Calgary and Red Deer have seen >30% increases in population in the last 10 years, however, the financial losses caused by hail have been less than the 10 year average before the start of the cloud seeding program in 1996. This is in spite of Calgary reaching a population of 1 million this past summer. The project design has remained the same throughout the period. The program was operational from June 1st to September 15th, 2006 and storms that posed a hail threat to an urban area, as identified by the projects weather radar situated at the Olds-Didsbury Airport, were seeded. The project target area covers the region from High River in the south to Lacombe in the north, with priority given to the two largest cities of Calgary and Red Deer. The target area was increased slightly towards the east to include the town of Strathmore and some of the smaller towns east of the QEII highway. Hail fell within the project area on 35 days. Larger than golf ball size hail fell on July 9th near Heritage Pointe golf course (South of Calgary), and on the afternoon of July 29th west of Olds. Golf ball size hail was reported on three days (July 6th near Eckville), July 12th west of Airdrie, and on August 10th near Markerville and the Red Deer Regional Airport/Springbrook). Walnut size hail was reported on five days (July 17th, 28th, 30th, Aug 3rd, and Aug 9th). For the entire Province of Alberta, the Alberta Agriculture Financial Services Corporation in Lacombe reported hail damage to crops (days with >1 claim) on 67 days (4 days in May, 13 days in June, 23 days in July, 21 days in August, and 6 days in September). Golf ball size hail was reported on 7 days (June 14th, July 5th, 9th, 10th and 12th, and August 9th and 10th) this summer in Alberta. Preliminary data from crop insurance claims indicates that crop damage in 2006 was approximately 7% above the 1986 to 1995 average. This was a bad summer for severe weather across the prairies. Environment Canada reported at the end of August that there had been 34 severe hail days in Alberta, 24 severe hail days in Saskatchewan, and 29 severe hail days in Manitoba. Furthermore, there had been 5 tornados reported in Alberta, 5 in Saskatchewan, and 9 in Manitoba. A tornado was reported on July 9th near Pine Lake, and another on August 16th near Rocky Mountain House. Both tornados were short lived and did not produce any damage. No tornados were reported from any seeded storms and our pilots spotted none. Alberta wide, 2006 was an above-average year for the number of hail days and severe hail days. In general, the weather in the project area this summer was warm and dry, with an above average number of days with temperatures > 30 deg C. During this season, there were 92 aircraft flights totaling 190.2 hrs on 39 operational days. A total of 65 storms were seeded during 60 seeding flights (162.8 hrs) on 28 days on which seeding took place. There were 13 patrol flights (15.1 hrs) and 13 test flights (10.2 hrs). The amount of silver-iodide nucleating agent dispensed during the 2006 field season totaled 214 kg: consisting of 4929 ejectable (cloud-top) flares (98.6 kg seeding agent), 703 end-burning (cloud-base) flares (105.5 kg seeding agent), and 145.4 gallons of AgI-acetone solution (9.97 kg seeding agent). There were 6 flights (2.1 hrs) for public relations, marketing, or media purposes. The procedures used in 2006 remained the same as for the previous ten years. Three specially equipped cloud seeding aircraft were dedicated to the project. One Piper Cheyenne II and a Cessna 340A were based in Calgary, and a Beech King Air C90 was based in Red Deer. The Calgary office and aircraft were located at the Morgan Air hangar at the Calgary International Airport. A WMI Red Deer office was set up in the former Hillman Air hangar at the Red Deer Regional Airport. The aircraft and crews provided a 24-hr service, seven days a week throughout the period. Seven fulltime pilots and four meteorologists were assigned to the project this year, allowing everyone to follow a
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work schedule and receive some scheduled time-off during the summer. Roger Tilbury, Chief Pilot from the WMI Fargo head office conducted training of new pilots during June. There were no changes to the staff during the summer. Overall, the personnel and equipment performed exceptionally well and there were no interruptions or missed opportunities in the service. The TITAN radar images were sent to the WMI web server at 5-min intervals, although there were often missing images in the web archive which were blamed on computer problems and interruptions in the microwave internet connection at the radar. The microwave modem at the radar was upgraded during the summer and this provided a slight improvement in August and September. The radar performed very well but there were two interruptions in service. The radar failed at 2 am on July 24th due to a broken wave-guide assembly within the antenna pedestal. Replacement parts had to be ordered from Fargo and the radar was back in service at 8 am on July 26. During this time, the web radar images from the Environment Canada radars at Strathmore and Carvel were used as guidance for cloud seeding operations. On July 27th at 1:27 pm, the radar was again shut down due to a broken piece of flex wave-guide at the pedestal. The flex portion of wave-guide was replaced with a custom built solid metal wave-guide and the radar was back in operation at 11 am on July 28th. Fortunately, seeding operations continued during these periods and all threatening hailstorms were seeded. All of the projects radar data, meteorological data, and reports have been recorded onto CD-ROM for the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society. These data include the daily reports, radar maps, aircraft flight tracks, as well as meteorological charts for each day. These data can be made available for outside research purposes through a special request to the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society. Numerous public relations activities occurred this year. On June 2nd, T. Krauss was interviewed by the Olds radio station CKFM. On June 25th, the Edmonton Journal ran a story about Weather Modification titled Scientists Dream of Taming Hurricanes. The story included interview comments and a photo of T. Krauss at the Olds-Didsbury Airport. On July 6th, David Boucher of Global TV Calgary visited the Olds radar to film and conducted interviews with T. Krauss, J. Renick, and C. Lee (HS2 Crew). Also on July 6th, the Calgary Herald interviewed T. Krauss. On July 11th, Jim Renick was interviewed live on CBC Radio for their morning show. On July 12th, T. Krauss was interviewed again by CKFM radio in nd Olds, about the recent severe storms. On August 2 J. Renick was interviewed by a radio station in Weyburn SK about cloud seeding for drought relief. On August 23rd, Jim Renick and Dave Johnson were interviewed by The Weather Network in Calgary. On August 31st, T. Krauss was interviewed by Cindy White of 660AM News radio in Calgary for a story that ran several times on Sept 7about the Anniversary of the Sept 7, 1991 severe hailstorm. On September 11th, Jacob Siebelink from Reformatorisch-Dagblad, a daily newspaper in the Netherlands, visited the radar and interviewed project personal. On the same day, about a dozen Mountain View County officials and agriculture specialists visited the radar in the afternoon for a tour and discussion about the project. Finally on September 14th, a film crew from Toronto called Creative Differences, working for the Discovery Channel (U.S.) program Best Evidence, interviewed Terry Krauss at the radar, and then filmed HS3 at the Red Deer Airport. All of the publicity was positive this year. A formal evaluation of the hail suppression program is still not possible without receiving more comprehensive, detailed, high resolution property insurance claim data. Preliminary assessments using the available, published data show a reduction in urban and Provincial agricultural losses after eleven years, and there appears to be no doubt that the program has been a financial success. The evidence has been consistently positive, however, the crop-damage data according to municipality does not indicate a reduction in hail for the target area. Rather, the greatest reduction in hail damage has occurred south of Calgary and, therefore, is a result of external forces such as climate change or natural year-to-year variability. Furthermore, there seems to be a trend towards increasing hail within the target area and north over the past few years, and this is expected to continue into the near future. The fact that the crop damage data does not show a reduction in crop damage within the target area is not surprising since not all hailstorms are seeded. Many hailstorms go unseeded if they do not threaten a town or city. Furthermore, small hail may cause significant crop damage without causing property damage; therefore, it is not directly correlated to property damage but only an indication of the overall threat. There are no reasons to change the scientific seeding hypotheses, methodologies, or design of the program based on our experiences and results of the past 11 years. The Alberta Hail Suppression Project continues to be a model operational program, using cloud seeding as a viable technology for reducing the economic impact of hailstorms.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
WMI wishes to acknowledge the kind support of Dave Johnson (President), Jim Renick (Project Director), Catherine Janssen (Chief Financial Officer), and the entire Board of Directors of the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society (ASWMS). The continued understanding, support, and cooperation of the ASWMS are greatly appreciated. A number of agencies and people deserve recognition and thanks. The cooperation of Mark McCrae and John Exley of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) Nav-Canada facilities at Calgary and Edmonton, is gratefully acknowledged. The excellent cooperation by the ATC once again, played a very important role in allowing the project pilots to treat the threatening storms in an efficient and timely manner as required, often directly over the city of Calgary. Mr. Rob Cruickshank, Agriculture Financial Services Corp. in Lacombe, is thanked for providing the crop insurance information. Once again, special thanks also goes to Bob Jackson for sharing his office and hangar at the Olds-Didsbury airport, used for the radar and communications control center. The cooperation of all these people helped make the project a success and much more enjoyable. WMI wishes to acknowledge the contributions of the staff who served the project during the summer of 2006: meteorologists (Jason Goehring, Dr. Andre Sinkevich, Dr. Viktor Makitov), electronics-radar technician Harry Ewen, pilots in command (Roger Tilbury, Jayson Bryant, Marshall Makarowski, Daniel Haines, and Craig Lee); the co-pilots (Mark Friel, Joel Zimmer, and Daniel Fillion), and the aircraft maintenance engineers (Gary Hillman and Dale Campbell). The staff performed exceptionally well as a team. The support of Patrick and James Sweeney, Randy Jenson, Hans Ahlness, Bruce Boe, Dennis Afseth, Cindy Dobbs, Mark Grove, Erin Fisher, and Mike Clancy in the Fargo head office is also gratefully acknowledged. As always, the author wishes to thank Jim Renick for his continued dedication, cooperation, support, and guidance during the field operations as well as his contributions to this final report.
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Figure 1: Jim Renick (Project Director) and Jim Sweeney (WMI Vice President).
Figure 2: Dr. Terry Krauss (WMI VP Meteorology and Project Manager) and Bruce Boe (WMI Director of Meteorology)
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Figure 3: Meteorologists Dr. Viktor Makitov and Dr. Andre Sinkevich.
Figure 4: Meteorologist Jason Goehring and Electronics Tech Harry Ewen.
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Figure 5: Hans Ahlness (WMI VP Operations) and Roger Tilbury (Chief Pilot).
Figure 6: Pilots Jayson Bryant and Marshall Makarowski.
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Figure 7: Pilots: Daniel Haines and Craig Lee.
Figure 8: Pilots: Mark Friel and Joel Zimmer.
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Figure 9: Pilot Daniel Fillion and Aircraft Engineer Gary Hillman.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...............................................................................................................................3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................................................................5 TABLE OF CONTENTS..............................................................................................................................11 LIST OF FIGURES......................................................................................................................................13 LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................................15 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................................16 THE 2006 FIELD PROGRAM .....................................................................................................................17 PROJECT OBJECTIVES............................................................................................................................19 PRIORITIES................................................................................................................................................20 CONCEPTUAL HAIL MODEL ....................................................................................................................21 HAIL SUPPRESSION HYPOTHESIS ...............................................................................................................21 PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY .......................................................................................................................23 OPERATIONS PLAN ..................................................................................................................................24 ONSET OF SEEDING ...................................................................................................................................24 IDENTIFICATION OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS ............................................................................................24 CLOUD SEEDING METHODOLOGY ...............................................................................................................25 NIGHT TIME SEEDING ................................................................................................................................26 STOPPING SEEDING ...................................................................................................................................26 SEEDING RATES ........................................................................................................................................26 SEEDING MATERIALS .................................................................................................................................27 FLARE EFFECTIVENESS TESTS ...................................................................................................................29 Summary Of CSU Tests .....................................................................................................................31 PROGRAM ELEMENTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE..................................................................................32 GROUND SCHOOL ....................................................................................................................................32 PUBLIC RELATIONS .................................................................................................................................33 FLIGHT OPERATIONS...............................................................................................................................33 AIR-TRAFFIC CONTROL ..............................................................................................................................34 CLOUD SEEDING AIRCRAFT ........................................................................................................................35 Piper Cheyenne II ...............................................................................................................................35 Beech King-Air C90 ............................................................................................................................36 C340A Aircraft.....................................................................................................................................36 Meteorological Aircraft Instrumentation ..............................................................................................37 RADAR CONTROL AND COMMUNICATIONS CENTER.........................................................................37 RADAR........................................................................................................................................................39 RADAR CALIBRATION CHECKS ....................................................................................................................40 AIRCRAFT TRACKING GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM (GPS) ..........................................................42 SUMMAR Y OF SEEDING OPERATIONS.................................................................................................43 FLIGHTS ....................................................................................................................................................43
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SEEDING AMOUNTS ...................................................................................................................................47 COMPARISON OF 2006 WITH PREVIOUS YEARS ..........................................................................................47 COMPARISON BY AIRCRAFT ........................................................................................................................47 STORM TRACK MAPS ..............................................................................................................................49 WEATHER FORECASTING .......................................................................................................................50 CONVECTIVE DAY CATEGORY (CDC) .........................................................................................................50 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME .................................................................................................................51 DAILY BRIEFINGS .......................................................................................................................................51 METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS ...................................................................................................................51 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE ...................................................................................................................54 THE HAILCAST MODEL ...............................................................................................................................56 LARGE HAIL DAYS SOUNDING COMPARISON .....................................................................................57 06 JULY 2006 ...........................................................................................................................................58 09 JULY 2006 ...........................................................................................................................................58 12 JULY 2006 ...........................................................................................................................................59 29 JULY 2006 ...........................................................................................................................................60 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................60 THE CALGARY STORM OF JULY 9TH, 2006 ............................................................................................61 METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION ....................................................................................................................61 SEEDING OPERATIONS ...............................................................................................................................69 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................71 7 JULY 2006 CASE STUDY .......................................................................................................................71 PILOT REPORT (BY JOEL ZIMMER) ..............................................................................................................73 STORM TRACK ANALYSIS (BY DR. ANDRE SINKEVICH) .................................................................................75 CLIMATE PERSPECTIVES ........................................................................................................................79 PRECIPITATION AT CALGARY AND RED DEER DURING THE SUMMER OF 2006................................................79 PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN CANADA DURING THE SUMMER OF 2006..........................80 EL NINO ....................................................................................................................................................82 PROVINCIAL CROP HAIL INSURANCE RESULTS .................................................................................83 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................................................88 REFERENCES AND RECOMMENDED READING ...................................................................................90 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................................94 A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. ORGANIZATION CHART...............................................................................................................95 DAILY WEATHER AND ACTIVITIES SUMMARY TABLE 2006.....................................................96 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FLIGHT SUMMARY 2006 .................................................................131 FLIGHT SUMMARY TABLE 2006 ................................................................................................133 FORMS.........................................................................................................................................136 SPECIFICATIONS FOR PIPER CHEYENNE II AIRCRAFT.........................................................140 SPECIFICATIONS FOR BEECHCRAFT KING AIR C90 AIRCRAFT...........................................141 SPECIFICATIONS FOR CESSNA C-340 AIRCRAFT..................................................................142 GROUND SCHOOL AGENDA .....................................................................................................143 WMI AIRBORNE GENERATOR SEEDING SOLUTION ..............................................................144 DAILY METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST STATISTICS 2006 .....................................................145 PROJECT PERSONNEL AND TELEPHONE LIST ......................................................................149
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Jim Renick (Project Director) and Jim Sweeney (WMI Vice President). ..................................................6 Figure 2: Dr. Terry Krauss (WMI VP Meteorology and Project Manager) and Bruce Boe (WMI Director of Meteorology) ..............................................................................................................................................................6 Figure 3: Meteorologists Dr. Viktor Makitov and Dr. Andre Sinkevich. ..................................................................7 Figure 4: Meteorologist Jason Goehring and Electronics Tech Harry Ewen...........................................................7 Figure 5: Hans Ahlness (WMI VP Operations) and Roger Tilbury (Chief Pilot). ....................................................8 Figure 6: Pilots Jayson Bryant and Marshall Makarowski. .....................................................................................8 Figure 7: Pilots: Daniel Haines and Craig Lee. .......................................................................................................9 Figure 8: Pilots: Mark Friel and Joel Zimmer..........................................................................................................9 Figure 9: Pilot Daniel Fillion and Aircraft Engineer Gary Hillman. :...................................................................10 Figure 10: The average number of hail days per year, based on the 19511980 climate normals of Environment Canada (1987) and taken from Etkin and Brun (1999)............................................................................................16 Figure 11: Map of southern Alberta showing the project target area (Figure courtesy J. Renick). .......................19 Figure 12: The conceptual model of hailstone formation and hail mitigation processes for Alberta (adapted from WMO, 1995). This schematic figure shows the cloud seeding methodology at cloud-top and cloud-base for a mature hailstorm.......................................................................................................................................................22 Figure 13: A three-dimensional schematic figure of an Alberta hailstorm, showing the cloud seeding methodology within the new growth zone.................................................................................................................23 Figure 14: Precipitation efficiency for High Plains convective storms. Known supercell hailstorms are labeled S. Storms that produced rain only are labeled R (Browning, 1977). ...........................................................................24 Figure 15: A photo of a cloud seeding plane dropping ejectable flares during a cloud seeding penetration (photo courtesy John Ulan)..................................................................................................................................................26 Figure 16: Photograph of a burning BIP flare. ......................................................................................................27 Figure 17: Pilot Joel Zimmer attaching the ejectable flare racks on the belly of the King Air C90 seeding aircraft. ..................................................................................................................................................................................28 Figure 18: Hail Stop 2, C340 aircraft shown seeding with Acetone Solution burners and Burn-In-Place (BIP) flares. ........................................................................................................................................................................29 Figure 19: Yield of ice crystals (corrected) per gram of pyrotechnic versus cloud supercooling temperature (T<0C). Open diamond symbols are for experiments with cloud LWC (liquid water content) of 1.5 g m-3, while the filled symbols are for experiments with LWC equal to 0.5 g m-3. .......................................................................30 Figure 20: Times for 63% (diamond symbols) and 90% (square symbols) ice formation versus supercooling (T<0C) for the ICE pyrotechnic aerosols. Open and filled symbols are for cloud LWC (liquid water content) of 1.5 and 0.5 g m-3, respectively. .................................................................................................................................31 Figure 21: A schematic of the operational elements of the Alberta Hail Suppression Project. ..............................32 Figure 22: Schematic figure showing aircraft cloud seeding block altitudes required for Air Traffic Control (ATC). .......................................................................................................................................................................34 Figure 23: Piper Cheyenne II aircraft (N747RE) designated as Hail-Stop 1 shown at the Calgary Airport. .........35 Figure 24: Beech Craft King-Air C90 aircraft (N911FG) designated as Hail-Stop 3 shown at the Olds-Didsbury Airport. .....................................................................................................................................................................36 Figure 25: C340A aircraft (N457DM) designated as Hail-Stop 2 and configured to seed with droppable flares, end-burning flares, and AgI acetone burners...........................................................................................................37 Figure 26: Dr. Viktor Makitov in the communications control room, showing the CIDD, TITAN, and Meteo/Airlink computers. .........................................................................................................................................38 Figure 27: TITAN dual-display showing the various radar pictures and satellite photo available to the radar controller on 29-July-2006.......................................................................................................................................38 Figure 28: WMI-NCAR CIDD display showing radar reflectivity data and topography. A vertical cross-section and clear-air outflow boundary are also shown.......................................................................................................39 Figure 29: WMI C-band radar at the Olds-Didsbury airport. ................................................................................40 Figure 30: Radar calibration of RDAS digital counts to equivalent radar reflectivity power (dBZ) for the WMI radar at Olds-Didsbury during the 2006 field season..............................................................................................42 Figure 31: Aircraft Global Positioning System (GPS) flight tracks, and real-time information via the AIRLINK telemetry system on June 21, 2006. ..........................................................................................................................43 Figure 32: The frequency of occurrence and cumulative distributions of aircraft take-off and landing times for all flights as a function on time during 2006. ................................................................................................................44 Figure 33: Amount of seeding material dispensed per operational day in 2006. ...................................................44 Figure 34: Map of all hailstorm tracks during 2006 (courtesy of Jim Renick). .......................................................49
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Figure 35: Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 6, 2006 (red), compared with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding (blue) for Edmonton. .................................................................................................................................58 Figure 36: Edmonton sounding at 6 am on July 9, 2006 (red), compared with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding (blue) for Edmonton. .................................................................................................................................59 Figure 37: Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 12, 2006 (red), compared with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding (blue) for Edmonton. .................................................................................................................................60 Figure 38: Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 29, 2006 (red), compared with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding (blue) for Edmonton. .................................................................................................................................61 Figure 39: Maximum Reflectivity map for the storms on 9-July-2006.....................................................................62 Figure 40: Aircraft tracks for Hailstop 1(green), 2(white), and 3(blue) on 9-July-2006........................................63 Figure 41: GEM model 12 hr forecast of 500 mb heights and vorticity at 6 pm 9-July-2006 (00Z, 10 July 2006). ..................................................................................................................................................................................64 Figure 42: Jet stream analysis at 6 pm 9-July-2006 (00Z, 10 July 2006)................................................................64 Figure 43: Surface analysis at 18Z (12 pm) on July 9th, 2006. ..............................................................................65 Figure 44: ETA 12 hr forecast atmospheric sounding for Calgary at 6 pm (00UTC) on July 9th 2006. Also shown is the trace for a lifted parcel with Temperature 26C and Dew Point 17C as reported in Calgary at 1 pm. ..........65 Figure 45: Map of surface 3-hr pressure changes and wind vectors at 12 pm (18Z) on July 9th, 2006. ...............66 Figure 46: Map of surface streamlines and equivalent potential temperature (Theta-E) at 12 pm (18Z) on July 9th, 2006. ..................................................................................................................................................................67 Figure 47: Surface moisture-flux divergence and wind gust map at 18Z (12 pm) on July 9th, 2006. ....................68 Figure 48: Water vapor satellite image at 3 pm (21Z 9 July 2006). ........................................................................68 Figure 49: Water vapor satellite image at 5 pm (23Z 9 July 2006). ........................................................................69 Figure 50: Time sequence of radar composite reflectivity displays and aircraft tracks over Calgary on July 9th, 2006. Hailstorms are identified with blue circles and their forecast tracks in 10 min intervals are shown with red circles. The storm cells are annotated with their top heights in km. The aircraft seeding tracks are shown as green, white, or blue lines.........................................................................................................................................70 Figure 51: Maximum reflectivity map (top right), maximum vertical-integrated-liquid (VIL) shown in top right and lower left panels, and aircraft tracks (lower right) for July 9th 2006. VIL shades of green are generally indicative of hail >1 cm diameter at the surface (graphic courtesy J. Renick). .......................................................71 Figure 52: Maximum radar reflectivity map at 2231Z (top), 2358Z (middle), and max VIL map at 0021Z on July 7, 2006. .....................................................................................................................................................................72 Figure 53: Flight track of Hailstop 3 on July 7, 2006.............................................................................................72 Figure 54: The track of the radar reflectivity centroid as defined by TITAN on July 7, 2006. ...............................76 Figure 55: Time plot of the TITAN cell top height (km) on July 7, 2006. The start and stop times of seeding are indicated. ..................................................................................................................................................................77 Figure 56: Time plot of the TITAN cell maximum reflectivity on July 7, 2006. The seeding start and stop times are indicated. ............................................................................................................................................................78 Figure 57: Time plot of the TITAN cell vertically integrated hail mass (kg/m2) on July 7, 2006...........................78 Figure 58: Daily and accumulated rainfall for Calgary from Sept. 21, 2005 to Sept. 21, 2006..............................79 Figure 59: Daily and accumulated rainfall for Red Deer from Sept. 21, 2005 to Sept. 21, 2006............................80 Figure 60: Departures from normal Precipitation during the summer of 2006 in Canada.....................................81 Figure 61: Departures from normal Temperature during the summer of 2006 in Canada. ....................................81 Figure 62: Sea Surface Temerature (SST) anomalies for the 4 Nino regions of the equatorial tropical Pacific over the period November 2005 to October 2006. ...........................................................................................................82 Figure 63: Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies for the period November 2005 to October 2006. ..83 Figure 64: Alberta Agriculture Financial Services Corp hail insurance loss-to-risk and claims statistics from 1978 to 2006. ............................................................................................................................................................84 Figure 65: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006). ...........................................................................................................................85 Figure 66: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the municipalities Downwind of the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006)....................................................................85 Figure 67: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the municipalities North of the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006)...............................................................................86 Figure 68: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the municipalities South of the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006)...............................................................................87 Figure 69: Trend analysis for the period 1981 to 2006 for the Loss-to-Risk ratio for the Target area...................88
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Census figures (2005 or most recent) for the towns and cities in the project area...................................20 Table 2: Yield results of ICE flares. .........................................................................................................................30 Table 3: Characteristic times for effective ice nuclei depletion and rate data. (LWC = 1.5 g m-3 points are average values).........................................................................................................................................................31 Table 4: Radar parameter calibration values for the ALBERTA-WMI WR100. ......................................................41 Table 5: Radar transmitted power calibration values measured during the 2006 season. ......................................41 Table 6: Operational Statistics for 1996 to 2006. ....................................................................................................45 Table 7: Cloud seeding flare usage comparison by aircraft. ...................................................................................47 Table 8: Description of Convective Day Category (CDC) Index .............................................................................50 Table 9: Summary of daily atmospheric parameters used as inputs for the daily forecast the CDC during 2006. 52 Table 10: Summary of daily forecast atmospheric parameters on hail days during 2006......................................53 Table 11: Table of the Observed versus Forecast days with Hail and No-Hail for the summer of 2006................54 Table 12: Table of Forecast versus Observed CDC daily values 2006...................................................................55 Table 13: Annual Summary of Convective Day Categories (CDC) ........................................................................55 Table 14: Table of Forecast versus Observed CDC daily values using HAILSCAST during the summer of 2006.56 Table 15: Probability of detection (POD). false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI) performance of HAILCAST and WMI from 2002 to 2006. ............................................................................................................57 Table 16: Statistics of the difference between measured storm motion angle (a) and storm speed (V) and RAOB model (mod) predicted angle (amod) and speed (Vmod) over 69 radar scans. ............................................................76 Table 17: Statistics of the measured storm motion angle before seeding (Abs), during seeding (Ads), and after seeding (Aas), and measured storm speed before seeding (Vbs), during seeding (Vds), and after seeding (Vas). N is the number of radar scans. ...................................................................................................................................76 Table 18: Regional Loss-to-Risk ratios. ...................................................................................................................87
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INTRODUCTION
Hailstorms pose a serious threat to property and crops in the province of Alberta. Historically, claims for agricultural hail damage are received on an average of 50 days each year between 1 June and 10 September (Summers and Wojtiw, 1971). The most recent climatology of hail in Canada was published by Etkin and Brun (1999) in the International Journal of Climatology. The average number of hail days per year, based on the 19511980 climate normals (Environment Canada, 1987) is shown in Figure 10. The contours were hand drawn, based primarily upon about 350 weather stations. The highest frequency of hail in Canada occurs in Alberta between the North Saskatchewan River and the Bow River, immediately downwind of the Rocky Mountain foothills. This region is often referred to as hail alley.
Figure 10: The average number of hail days per year, based on the 19511980 climate normals of Environment Canada (1987) and taken from Etkin and Brun (1999). Etkin and Brun (1999) point out that the period 19771993 was associated with substantial increases in hail-observing stations. As the 19511980 hail climatology was mostly based on pre-1977 data, it had a
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relatively coarse resolution in comparison. An updated Alberta hail climatology for 19771993 has since been completed. It has a greater resolution than the national climatology, and shows the importance of some topographical features, such as the Rocky Mountains. The influence of local topographical features on mesoscale hail frequency is a major control. After 1982, hail frequencies in Alberta showed a significant increase. The City of Calgary is in a region that normally gets between 3 and 4 hailstorms each year. By overlaying the hail frequency map with the population density map, the region of greatest financial risk to insurance companies covers the area from Calgary to Red Deer and Rocky Mountain House. For this reason, this is the region that was selected as the target area for the hail suppression program. Insurance claims due to hailstorms in urban areas worldwide have generally escalated over the past 10 years. Denver Colorado was pounded by golf-ball to tennis-ball sized hail on July 11, 1990, and damages reached a record (for the U.S.A. at that time) $625 million. In Canada, the damages associated with the severe hailstorm that struck Calgary on September 7, 1991 exceeded $416 million (Insurance Bureau of Canada, 2004). Insured claims from the hailstorm that struck Sydney Australia on April 14, 1999 were approximately $1.5 billion, making it the most damaging event in Australian insurance history. A study by Herzog (2002) compiled and summarized the hailstorm damages in the USA for the period 1994-2000 for the Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS). Verified hail losses amounted to $2.5 Billion per year, with the actual amount possibly being 50% higher. Personal building losses totalled $11.5 Billion (66%), commercial building losses totalled $2.7B (15%), and vehicles accounted for $3.3B (19%). And recently, the most damaging hailstorm ever recorded in the USA moved from eastern Kansas to southern Illinois on 10 April 2001, depositing 2.5- to 7.5-cmdiameter hailstones along a 585-km path, over portions of the St. Louis and Kansas City urban areas collectively created $1.9 billion in damage claims from a 2-day period, becoming the ninth most costly weather catastrophe in the United States since property insurance records began in 1949 (Changnon and Burroughs, 2003). Estimates of the average annual crop loss to hail have also continued to increase with time, from $50 million annually in 1975 (Renick, 1975) to more than $150 million annually during the period 1980 1985 (Alberta Research Council, 1986). Actual insured crop losses are typically in the $80M range annually. The new Alberta Hail Suppression Project was initiated in 1996 as a result of the increased frequency of damaging hailstorms in Alberta, compounded by an increasing population inside an area of high storm frequency. It is the first project of its kind in the World to be entirely funded by private insurance companies with the sole objective of reducing the damage to property by hail. At this time, Alberta Crop Insurance and the Provincial and Federal Governments do not contribute financially to the project, although they stand to benefit from the seeding. Weather Modification Inc. (WMI) has been a leader in the field of hail suppression since the early 1960's. With extensive knowledge and experience in the cloud seeding industry, WMI is best known for its successful hail suppression operations in the northern great plains and other cloud modification services around the world, most recently and notably in Argentina. WMI was awarded the first contract to conduct the Alberta Hail Suppression Project in April 1996 by the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society. The project was made an ongoing program of the Alberta insurance industry in 2001 because of the drop in hail damage costs in Alberta, counter to the trend in the rest of the country and the World. The contract calls for the provision of all personnel and equipment for a turnkey system of cloud seeding and related services for the purpose of reducing hail damage to property in south-central (Calgary to Red Deer) Alberta. The organization chart of the project is shown in Appendix A.
THE 2006 FIELD PROGRAM

In 2006, WMI conducted the operational cloud-seeding program from June 1st to September 15th. The project is based upon the techniques, methods, and results of the long-term hail research project conducted by the Alberta Research Council from the late 1960s through 1985 (Alberta Research Council, 1986) and by WMI in North Dakota (Smith et al, 1997). The present program utilizes the latest
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cloud seeding technology available, incorporating several notable improvements over previous projects in the province. These improvements include: New fast-acting, high-yield mixtures for the silver-iodide flares and acetone solution. The flares are manufactured by Ice Crystal Engineering (ICE) of North Dakota. The new generation ICE pyrotechnics produce >1011 ice nuclei per gram of AgI at -4C, and produce between 1013 and 1014 ice nuclei per gram of pyrotechnic between -6C and -10C. CSU isothermal cloud chamber tests indicate that at a temperature of -6.3C, 63% of the nuclei are active in <1 min, and 90% active in 1.12 minutes. This high yield and fast acting agent is important for hail suppression since the timewindow of opportunity for successful intervention of the hail growth process is often less than 10 minutes. Use of the latest GPS tracking and advanced TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting) computer software to accurately display the aircraft locations on the radar displays to improve the controlling of aircraft and facilitate the direction of seeding operations to the most critical regions of the storms. Injection of the seeding material directly into the developing cloud turrets as the most frequent seeding method. Use of experienced meteorological and aviation staff to direct the seeding aircraft as well as to accurately identify the proper regions of storms for seeding;
The target or "protected" area is shown in Figure 11 and focuses on the area from Lacombe in the north, to High River in the south, with priority given to the cities of Calgary and Red Deer. This year, the target area was increased slightly towards the east to include the town of Strathmore and some of the smaller towns east of the QEII highway. Three aircraft specially equipped to dispense silver iodide were used. Two aircraft (one Piper Cheyenne II and one C340) were based in Calgary and one Beechcraft King Air C90 based in Red Deer. The radar is located at the Olds-Didsbury airport. The radar coordinates are 51.71 N Latitude, 114.11 W Longitude, with a station elevation of 1024 m above sea level. The WMO station identifier is no. 71359 and the ICAO identifier is CEA3. The project area dimension is approximately 240 km (N-S) by 120 km (E-W) or 28,800 sq km.
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Figure 11: Map of southern Alberta showing the project target area (Figure courtesy J. Renick).
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
The project has two main objectives: Conduct cloud seeding using 3 aircraft with experienced crews to suppress hail for the purpose of reducing damage to property; Operate a C-band weather radar and collect weather information by skilled professional meteorologists and engineers for purposes of storm identification, accurate storm tracking, optimal direction of aircraft to conduct cloud seeding for hail suppression purposes, and the collection of a data archive that may be used for the scientific assessment of the program's effectiveness.
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Priorities
Table 1 lists the recent census figures obtained via the internet for the cities and towns within the project area. Priority is given according to population, which is related to the risk of property damage. This list was posted in the radar control room as a constant reminder to the meteorologists of the priority when allocating resources to storms on any given day. The biggest increases in population have occurred in Cochrane, Airdrie, and Sylvan Lake. Blackfalds, Crossfield, and Okotoks have also seen large increases in population. Project meteorologists made special note of the fact that the combined population of Turner Valley and Black Diamond is almost as large as Blackfalds or Didsbury. Storms that do not threaten a town or city are not likely to be seeded. Also, most storms are not seeded after they cross the QEII highway, except for storms east of Airdrie and Calgary that might threaten Strathmore. Table 1: Census figures (2005 or most recent) for the towns and cities in the project area. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 POPULATION Calgary Metropolitan Area Calgary Red Deer Airdrie Cochrane Okotoks Lacombe Strathmore High River Sylvan Lake Chestermere Innisfail Olds Rocky Mountain House Blackfalds Didsbury Turner Valley/Black Diamond Three Hills Crossfield Carstairs Sundre Penhold Bowden Irricana Trochu Eckville Caroline Cremona 900 470 380 1,900 1,900 2,000 1,625 1,000 820 1,038 2,389 2,254 2,267 1,729 3,600 6,100 5,800 5,800 6,954 6,607 6,208 3,042 3,932 7,400 5,200 1996 821,628 768,000 60,000 15,900 7,400 8,510 2001 951,395 879,277 67,707 20,382 11,798 11,664 9,384 7,621 9,345 7,884 2005 (or most recent) 1,060,300 991,759 79,082 27,069 12,688 11,664 10,850 9,653 9,522 8,504 7,904 7,208 6,703 6,584 4,373 3,932 3,652 3,554 2,603 2,501 2,267 1,750 1,174 1,104 1,033 1,019 556 415 13% 18% 9% 37% 32% 13% 8% 17% 35% 18% 16% 14% 44% 9% % increase 29% 29% 32% 70% 71% 37% 16% 27% 29% 64%
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CONCEPTUAL HAIL MODEL

The hail suppression conceptual model is based on the experience of WMI in the USA, Canada, Argentina, and Greece. It involves the use of silver-iodide reagents to seed the developing feeder clouds near the -10C level in the upshear, new growth propagation region of hailstorms. The silveriodide reagents initiate a condensation-freezing process and produce enhanced concentrations of ice crystals that compete for the available, super-cooled liquid water in a storm and help prevent the growth of large damaging hail. The seeding also initiates the precipitation process earlier in a cloud (cell) to speed up the growth of cloud hydrometeors via an ice-phase (graupel) to rain mechanism instead of continuing to grow to damaging hail.
Hail Suppression Hypothesis

The cloud seeding hypothesis is based on the cloud microphysical concept of "beneficial competition". Beneficial competition is based upon the documented deficiency of natural ice nuclei in the environment and that the injection of silver iodide (AgI) will result in the production of a significant number of "artificial" ice nuclei. The natural and artificial ice crystals "compete" for the available super-cooled liquid cloud water within the storm. Hence, the hailstones that are formed within the seeded cloud volumes will be smaller and produce less damage if they should survive the fall to the surface. If sufficient nuclei are introduced into the new growth region of the storm, then the hailstones will be small enough to melt completely before reaching the ground. Cloud seeding alters the microphysics of the treated clouds, assuming that the present precipitation process is inefficient due to a deficiency of natural ice nuclei. This deficiency of natural ice has been documented in the new growth zone of Alberta storms (Krauss, 1981). Cloud seeding does not attempt to compete directly with the energy and dynamics of the storm. Any alteration of the storm dynamics occurs as a consequence of the increased ice crystal concentration and initiation of riming and precipitation sized ice particles earlier in the clouds lifetime. The cloud seeding is based on the conceptual model of Alberta hailstorms which evolved from the experiments and studies of Chisholm (1970), Chisholm and Renick (1972), Marwitz (1972a,b,c), Barge and Bergwall (1976), Krauss and Marwitz (1984), and English (1986). Direct observational evidence from the instrumented aircraft penetrations of Colorado and Alberta storms in the 1970's and early 1980s indicates that hail embryos grow within the time evolving "main" updraft of single cell storms and within the updrafts of developing "feeder clouds" or cumulus towers that flank mature "multi-cell" and "super-cell" storms (see e.g. Foote, 1984; Krauss and Marwitz, 1984). The computation of hail growth trajectories within the context of measured storm wind fields provided a powerful new tool for integrating certain parts of hail growth theories, and illustrated a striking complexity in the hail growth process. Some of this complexity is reviewed in the paper of Foote (1985) that classifies a broad spectrum of storm types according to both dynamical and microphysical processes thought to be critical to hail production. Hail embryo sources identified by Foote (1985) include the following: Embryos from first-ice in a time-developing updraft Embryos from first-ice in the core of a long-lived updraft Embryos from flanking cumulus congestus Embryos from a merging mature cell Embryos from a mature cell positioned upwind Embryos from the edges of the main updraft Embryos created by melting and shedding Embryos from entrainment of stratiform cloud Embryos from embedded small-scale updrafts and downdrafts Recirculation of embryos that have made a first pass through the updraft core The growth to large hail is hypothesized to occur primarily along the edges of the main storm updraft where the merging feeder clouds interact with the main storm updraft (WMO, 1995). The mature hailstorm may consist of complicated airflow patterns and particle trajectories, therefore, the cloudseeding cannot hope to affect all embryo sources but attempts to modify the primary hail formation process. In other words, the cloud seeding cannot attempt to eliminate all of the hail, but can reduce the size and amount of hail.
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Studies of the internal structure of large hailstones in Alberta and elsewhere have shown that hailstones can have either a graupel hail embryo or a frozen drop hail embryo. The different hail embryos indicate different growth histories and trajectories and illustrate the complexity within a single hailstorm. The present seeding methodology attempts to compete with the graupel embryo process. Drop hail embryos are thought to originate from secondary sources (shedding from large existing hail stones, or via a recirculation process at the edge of the main updraft). The seeding can only reduce the hail with drop embryos if the liquid water can be reduced to limit their growth, or if the dynamics of the storm can be affected to eliminate the recirculation processes that formed the drop embryo in the first place. A schematic diagram of the conceptual storm model showing the hail origin and growth processes within a severe Alberta hailstorm is shown in Figure 12. A three-dimensional schematic figure of an Alberta hailstorm is shown in Figure 13, showing the cloud seeding methodology in the new growth zone.
Figure 12: The conceptual model of hailstone formation and hail mitigation processes for Alberta (adapted from WMO, 1995). This schematic figure shows the cloud seeding methodology at cloud-top and cloud-base for a mature hailstorm.
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Figure 13: A three-dimensional schematic figure of an Alberta hailstorm, showing the cloud seeding methodology within the new growth zone. As mentioned previously, cloud seeding cannot prevent or completely eliminate the occurrence of damaging hail. We presently do not have the ability to predict with any certainty exactly the amount and size of hail that would occur if cloud seeding did not take place. Therefore, we do not have the ability to predict with certainty the net effect of the seeding. Our purpose is to seed the new growth zone of hailstorms and observe the amount and type of precipitation at the surface, as well as the radar reflectivity characteristics of the storm before, during, and after seeding. We expect that the successful application of the technology will yield a decrease of damaging hail by approximately 50% of the amount that would have occurred if seeding had not taken place. This goal is consistent with the results reported in North Dakota (Smith et al, 1997) and in Greece (Rudolph et al, 1994). The decrease in hail can only be measured as an average over time (e.g. 5 years) and over an area and then compared with the historical values for the same areas. Because of these uncertainties, the evaluation of any hail mitigation program requires a statistical analysis. Both seeded storms and unseeded storms have variability and populations of seeded and unseeded storms overlap in all measurements of their characteristics.
Precipitation Efficiency
A common question about cloud seeding concerns the effect on the rainfall. Krauss and Santos (2004) analyzed two years of Alberta radar data and concluded that seeded storms produced more rain than non-seeded storms of the same height. The seeding effect was estimated to increase the mean rainfall volume (averaged for categories 7.5 to 11.5 km height storms) by a factor of 2.2 with an average 95% confidence interval of 1.4 to 3.4. The seeded storms lived longer (+50%), had greater mean precipitation rates (+29%), and had greater mean total rain area-time integrals (+54%). There is a general (yet false) assumption by the public and some scientists that thunderstorms operate at near 100% efficiency in producing rainfall, therefore, any modification of the hail, or causing the rainfall to start earlier, may limit the amount of precipitation that can fall later in a storms lifetime, down wind of the project area. There have been numerous studies of the fluxes of air and water vapor through convective clouds and these are summarized in Figure 14. Precipitation efficiencies can vary widely from as little as 2% for storms studied by Marwitz (1972) and Dennis et al. (1970) to near 100%. Marwitz (1972) and Foote and Fankhauser (1973) show that in the case of High Plains storms there is an inverse relation between the precipitation efficiency and the
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environmental wind shear in the cloud-bearing layer. The least efficient storms tend to be supercell hailstorms; the highly efficient storms tend not to produce hail. The average wind shear on hail days in Alberta is approximately 2.5 x 10-3 sec-1 . This shear value corresponds to precipitation efficiency near 50%. It is logical that the production of large, damaging hail is a result of the natural inefficiency of the storm to produce rain. Therefore, the introduction of more precipitation embryos earlier in a clouds lifetime is highly advantageous to the initiation of precipitation earlier, making the cloud more efficient as a rain producer, and in the process reducing the amount and size of the hail. Increasing the rainfall from a hailstorm by 20% due to the seeding is a very achievable goal, and means that less water is lost either via the entrainment of dry environmental air through the sides and top of the cloud, or water lost to ice crystals that are exhausted out of the anvil at the top of the troposphere and which eventually sublimate back to the vapor phase at high altitudes.
Figure 14: Precipitation efficiency for High Plains convective storms. Known supercell hailstorms are labeled S. Storms that produced rain only are labeled R (Browning, 1977).
OPERATIONS PLAN
The following guidelines represent the current state of the science of hail suppression operations being applied by Weather Modification Inc.
Onset of Seeding
In order for cloud seeding to be successful, it is the goal of the program to seed (inject ice nucleating agents) the developing "new growth" cloud towers of a hail producing storm, at least 20 minutes before the damaging hail falls over a town or city within the target zone. For the Alberta project, the principle targets are the towns and cities within the project area. Since 20 min is the minimum time reasonably expected for the seeding material to nucleate, and have the seeded ice crystals grow to sufficient size to compete for the available super-cooled liquid water in order to yield positive results, a 30 min lead time is generally thought to be advisable.
Identification of Hail Producing Storms

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The height of the 45 dBZ contour was a criterion tested in the Swiss hail suppression program. The Swiss research indicated that all hailstorms had 45 dBZ contours that exceeded the 5C temperature level (Waldvogel, Federer, and Grimm, 1979). There was a False Alarm Rate (FAR) of 50%, largely because some strong rainstorms also met the criterion. However, it is preferable to make an error and assume that a heavy rainstorm is going to produce hail than to mistakenly believe that a hailstorm is only going to produce heavy rain. Studies of Alberta hailstorms also indicated that 50% of all Alberta hail storms had a maximum radar reflectivity greater than 45 dBZ, higher than the -5C level (Humphries, English, and Renick, 1987). The Russian criteria for hail identification stated that the height of the 45 dBZ contour had to exceed the height of the 0C isotherm by more than 2 km (Abshaev, 1999). Similarly, the criteria used by the National Hail Research Experiment in the USA 1972-1974 for a declared hail day was defined by radar maximum reflectivity greater than 45 dBZ above the -5C level (Foote and Knight, 1979). Our experience suggests that the Swiss/Alberta/Russian/USA criterion is reasonable (Makitov, 1999). The physical reasoning behind it is simply that high radar reflectivity implies that significant supercooled liquid water exists at temperatures cold enough for large hail growth.
3 In Alberta, the TITAN cell identification program was set in 2006 to track any cell having >10 km of 40 dBZ reflectivity, extending above 3 km altitude (MSL). Each cell tracked by TITAN was then considered to be a potential hail threat, therefore, this represents our seeding criteria. A storm is a seeding candidate if the storm cell (as defined by TITAN) is moving towards, and is expected to reach, a town or city within the target area in less than 30 min.
Cloud Seeding Methodology

Radar meteorologists are responsible for making the "seed" decision and directing the cloud seeding missions, incorporating the visual observations of the pilots into their decisions. Patrol flights are often launched before clouds within the target area meet the radar reflectivity seeding criteria, especially over the cities of Calgary and Red Deer. These patrol flights provide a quicker response to developing cells. In general, a patrol is launched in the event of visual reports of vigorous towering cumulus clouds or when radar cell tops exceed 25 kft height over the higher terrain along the western border on days when the forecast calls for thunderstorms with large hail potential. Launches of more than one aircraft are determined by the number of storms, the lead time required for a seeder aircraft to reach the proper location and altitude, and projected overlap of coverage and on-station time for multiple aircraft missions. In general, only one aircraft can work safely at cloud top and one aircraft at cloud base for a single storm. The operation of three aircraft is used to provide uninterrupted seeding coverage at either cloud-base or cloud-top and/or to seed three storms simultaneously if required. Factors that determine cloud top or cloud base seeding are: storm structure, visibility, cloud base height, or time available for aircraft to reach seeding altitude. Cloud base seeding is conducted by flying at cloud base within the main inflow of single cell storms, or the inflow associated with the new growth zone (shelf cloud) located on the upshear side of multi-cell storms. Cloud top seeding can be conducted between -8C and -15C. The 20 g pencil flares fall approximately 1.5 km (approximately 10C) during their 35-40 s burn time. Figure 15 shows a cloud seeding plane dropping flares. The seeding aircraft penetrate the up-shear edges of single convective cells meeting the seed criteria. For multi-cell storms, or storms with feeder clouds, the seeding aircraft penetrate the tops of the developing cumulus towers on the upshear sides of convective cells, as they grow up through the -10C flight level.
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Figure 15: A photo of a cloud seeding plane dropping ejectable flares during a cloud seeding penetration (photo courtesy John Ulan).
Night Time Seeding

Occasionally, with embedded cells or convective complexes at night, there are no clearly defined feeder turrets visible to the flight crews or on radar. In these instances, a seeding aircraft will penetrate the storm edge at an altitude between -5C and -10C, on the upshear side (region of tight radar reflectivity gradient) and seed by igniting an end-burner flare and injecting droppable pencil flares when updrafts are encountered. If visibility is good below cloud base, nighttime seeding at base is also performed. Lightning can often help provide illumination at the cloud base.
Stopping Seeding
Strictly speaking, if the radar reflectivity criteria are met, seeding of all cells is to be continued. However, seeding is effective only within cloud updrafts and in the presence of super-cooled cloud water, i.e. the developing, and mature stages in the evolution of the classic thunderstorm conceptual model. The dissipating stages of a storm should be seeded only if the maximum reflectivity is particularly severe and there is evidence (visual cloud growth, or tight reflectivity gradients) indicating the possible presence of embedded updrafts. Storm cells being tracked by TITAN may not be seeded if there are no other indications of updraft or super-cooled liquid water, or if the storm does not threaten a town or city.
Seeding Rates
A seeding rate of one 20 g flare every 5 sec is typically used during cloud penetration. A higher rate is used (e.g. 1 flare every 2 to 3 sec) if updrafts are very strong (e.g. greater than 2000 ft/min) and the storm is particularly intense. A cloud seeding pass is repeated immediately if there are visual signs of new cloud growth or if radar reflectivity gradients remain tight (indicative of persistent updrafts). If not, a 5 to 10 min waiting period may be used, to allow for the seeding material to take effect and the storm to dissipate, or for visual signs of glaciation to appear or radar reflectivity values to decrease and gradients to weaken. This waiting period precludes the waste of seeding material and assures its optimum usage. Calculations show that the seeding rate of one flare every 5 sec will produce >1300 ice crystals
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per litre averaged over the plume within 2.5 min. This is more than sufficient to deplete the liquid water content produced by updrafts up to 10 m/s (2000 ft/min), thereby preventing the growth of hailstones within the seeded cloud volumes (Cooper and Marwitz, 1980). For effective hail suppression, sufficient dispersion of the particles is required for the AgI plume from consecutive flares to overlap by the time the cloud particles reach hail size. The work by Grandia et al. (1979) based on turbulence measurements within Alberta feeder clouds indicated that the time for the diameter of the diffusing line of AgI to reach the integral length scale (200 m) in the inertial subrange size scales of mixing, is 140 seconds. This is insufficient time for ice particles to grow to hail size, therefore, dropping flares at 5 sec (assuming a true-airspeed of 80 m/s) intervals should provide sufficient nuclei and allow adequate dispersion to effectively deplete the super-cooled liquid water and prevent the growth of hail particles. The use of the 20 gm flares and a frequent drop rate provides better seeding coverage than using larger flares with a greater time/distance spacing between flare drops. In fact, the above calculations are conservative when one considers that the center of the ice crystal plume will have a greater concentration of ice crystals. For cloud base seeding, a seeding rate using two acetone generators or one end-burner flare is typically used, dependent on the updraft velocity at the cloud base. For an updraft >500 ft/min, generators and consecutive flares per seeding run are typically used. Cloud seeding runs are repeated until no further inflow is found. Acetone burners are used to provide continuous silver iodide seeding if extensive regions of weak updraft are found at cloud base and in the shelf cloud region. Base seeding is not conducted if downdrafts only are encountered at cloud base, since this would waste seeding material.
Seeding Materials
WMI exclusively uses silver-iodide formulation flares manufactured by Ice Crystal Engineering (ICE) of Davenport, ND. The ejectable flares contain 20 gm of seeding material and burn for approximately 37 sec and fall approximately 4000 ft. The end-burning or burn in place (BIP) flares contain 150 gm of seeding material, and burn for approximately 6 min. A photograph of a burning BIP flare test is shown in Figure 16.
Figure 16: Photograph of a burning BIP flare. Silver-iodide is dispensed using droppable/ejectable (shown in Figured 15 and 17) and/or end-burning pyrotechnics (Fig. 16) and/or acetone burners (shown in Figure 18). In 2006 the WMI acetone generators performed very well and the level of required maintenance decreased significantly. Crews still kept a close watch of igniter rods, valves, nozzles, and seals in order that the generators operated reliably. Details of the silver-iodide acetone solution used in 2006 are given in an Appendix.
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Arrangements were once again made with Solution Blend Services, a Calgary chemical company to pre-mix the acetone seeding solution. All required handling, mixing, storage, and labelling requirements were satisfied.
Figure 17: Pilot Joel Zimmer attaching the ejectable flare racks on the belly of the King Air C90 seeding aircraft.
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Figure 18: Hail Stop 2, C340 aircraft shown seeding with Acetone Solution burners and Burn-InPlace (BIP) flares.
Flare Effectiveness Tests

The Cloud Simulation and Aerosol Laboratory at Colorado State University has performed routine testing of the ice nucleating ability of aerosols produced from cloud seeding flares for many years (Garvey, 1975). Note: The CSU laboratory has now stopped this service and a new testing facility to conduct these standardized tests is desperately needed for the cloud seeding industry. The new ICE pyrotechnics were tested at CSU in 1999 and the results are reported in DeMott (1999). Aerosols were collected and tested at nominal temperatures of -4, -6 and -10C. At least two tests at were done at each temperature, with greater emphasis placed on warmer temperatures. Liquid water content (LWC) was 1.5 g m-3 in most tests, but was altered to 0.5 g m-3 in a few other experiments. In this way, information concerning the rate-dependence on cloud droplet concentration was obtained. The primary product of the laboratory characterization is the "effectiveness plot" for the ice nucleant which gives the number of ice crystals formed per gram of nucleant as a function of cloud temperature. Yield results for the ICE flares at various sets of conditions are shown in Figure 19 and are tabulated in Table 2.
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Supercooling (C)
0 1.00E+10
___________ ___________
10
15
1.00E+11
)oryp 1-g #( dleiY
1.00E+12
1.00E+13
1.00E+14
1.00E+15
July 1999 ICE Pyro
Figure 19: Yield of ice crystals (corrected) per gram of pyrotechnic versus cloud supercooling temperature (T<0C). Open diamond symbols are for experiments with cloud LWC (liquid water content) of 1.5 g m-3, while the filled symbols are for experiments with LWC equal to 0.5 g m-3. Table 2: Yield results of ICE flares.
Pyro type ICE
Temp (C) -3.8 -4.0 -4.2 -4.3 -6.1 -6.3 -6.4 -10.5 -10.5 -4.2 -6.0 -10.5
LWC (g m-3) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Raw Yield (g-1 AgI) 3.72x1011 9.42x1011 1.66x1012 2.15x1012 6.01x1013 5.44x1013 6.22x1013 2.81x1014 2.34x1014 1.41x1012 7.42x1013 2.38x1014
Corr. Yield (g-1 AgI) 3.87x1011 9.63x1011 1.70x1012 2.21x1012 6.13x1013 5.56x1013 6.34x1013 2.85x1014 2.37x1014 1.45x1012 7.73x1013 2.41x1014
Raw Yield (g-1 pyro) 4.01x1010 1.02x1011 1.80x1011 2.32x1011 6.49x1012 5.87x1012 6.72x1012 3.03x1013 2.87x1013 1.53x1011 8.01x1012 2.91x1013
Corr. Yield (g-1 pyro) 4.18x1010 1.04x1011 1.84x1011 2.39x1011 6.62x1012 6.00x1012 6.85x1012 3.07x1013 2.91x1013 1.57x1011 8.34x1012 2.96x1013
Yield (per pyro) 8.36x1011 2.08x1012 3.67x1012 4.77x1012 1.32x1014 1.20x1014 1.37x1014 6.15x1014 5.81x1014 3.14x1012 1.67x1014 5.92x1014
Tests were also performed using the method of DeMott et al., (1983) to determine the characteristic times for effective ice nuclei depletion, and these are summarized in Figure 20 and Table 3.
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10 9 8
_________ _________ y = 57.483x 2 R = 0.8298 90%
-1.9653
Time (minutes)
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
y = 4.723x 2 R = 0.8552 63%
-1.1862
Supercooling (C)
10
12
Figure 20: Times for 63% (diamond symbols) and 90% (square symbols) ice formation versus supercooling (T<0C) for the ICE pyrotechnic aerosols. Open and filled symbols are for cloud LWC (liquid water content) of 1.5 and 0.5 g m-3, respectively. Table 3: Characteristic times for effective ice nuclei depletion and rate data. (LWC = 1.5 g m-3 points are average values)
Pyro type WMI
Temp (C) -4.0 -4.2 -6.3 -6.0 -10.5 -10.5
LWC (g m-3) 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
k (min-1) 1.093 0.713 1.775 0.724 3.200 2.488
kdil (min-1) 0.023 0.019 0.038 0.028 0.045 0.040
kact (min-1) 0.935 0.694 1.737 0.696 3.155 2.448
T1/e (min) 0.94 1.44 0.48 1.43 0.32 0.41
T90% (min) 4.32 5.71 1.12 5.21 0.73 0.94
Yield Corr. 1.023 1.028 1.020 1.041 1.014 1.016
Summary Of CSU Tests

The primary results obtained in this series of tests of new ICE flares may be summarized as follows (DeMott, 1999):
1. The aerosol particles produced by the new ICE pyrotechnics were highly efficient ice
nucleating aerosols. Yield values were approximately 1x1012, 5x1013 and 3x1014 ice crystals per gram pyrotechnic at -4, -6 and -10C in 1.5 g m-3 clouds in the CSU isothermal cloud chamber. Improvement compared to the previous pyrotechnic formulation used by ICE was modest at -6C, but most significant (factor of 3 increase in Yield) at -4C.
2. The ICE pyrotechnics burned with a fine smoke and a highly consistent burn time of ~37 s. 3. Rates of ice crystal formation were very fast, suggestive of a rapid condensation freezing
process. The balance of observations showed no significant difference in the rate data
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obtained at varied cloud densities, supporting a conclusion that particles activate ice formation by condensation freezing. The CSU isothermal cloud chamber tests indicate that, on a per gram basis of pyrotechnic, these values are comparable to the best product available worldwide in the pyrotechnic format. High yield and fast acting agents are important for hail suppression since the time-window of opportunity for successful intervention of the hail growth process is often less than 10 minutes. More information about the ICE flares can be found on the internet at www.iceflares.com .
PROGRAM ELEMENTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

A schematic diagram of the operational elements for the hail suppression project is shown in Figure 21. Details of the individual elements are described in more detail in the following sections.
Figure 21: A schematic of the operational elements of the Alberta Hail Suppression Project. The radiosonde (weather balloon) depicted in Figure 21 was part of the system on a limited bases during 2003 and 2004, when WMI participated in the Alberta GPS Atmospheric Moisture Evaluation (AGAME) research project with the University of Calgary. From those experiments we learned that the ETA/NAM model from the USA does an excellent job in predicting the main features of the atmospheric profile for Calgary and Red Deer. Although subtle details of inversion layers and moisture layers may not be resolved, the meteorologists have generally sufficient information about the instability of the atmosphere to construct a good forecast. One of the greatest gaps in our knowledge and data concerns the presence, absence, or timing of trigger mechanisms for the onset of convection. The increasing availability of near real time surface and satellite images via the internet is improving this situation. All meteorological information was received via the internet. WMI no longer needed a commercial agreement with Environment Canada. In addition, temperature measurements from the aircraft cloud physics data system supplied real time environmental data for the project meteorologists in some cases.
GROUND SCHOOL
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A ground school was conducted prior to the commencement of the project field operations on May 30th, 2006 for all project personnel. Ground School was held in the conference room at Economical Insurance in Calgary. Operational procedures, general conduct, and reporting requirements were presented and reviewed at the ground school. Two representatives of NAV Canada in Calgary and Edmonton participated in the ground school. A copy of the Ground School Program, as well as copies of the Flight Log and Radar Log forms, are included in the Appendices. The ground school training topics included: i. program overview and design, project area, target areas, and priorities ii. overview of operations and procedures iii. cloud seeding hypotheses for hail suppression iv. cloud seeding theory and techniques v. aviation weather problems and special procedures vi. aircraft controlling techniques and procedures vii. seeding aircraft equipment and characteristics viii. weather radar equipment and basic principles ix. basic meteorological concepts and severe weather forecasting x. weather phenomena, fronts, and storms xi. daily routines and procedures xii. communications procedures xiii. computers, documentation, and reporting procedures xiv. safety, security precautions and procedures
PUBLIC RELATIONS
Numerous public relations activities occurred this year. On June 2nd, T. Krauss was interviewed by the Olds radio station CKFM. On June 25th, the Edmonton Journal ran a story about Weather Modification titled Scientists Dream of Taming Hurricanes. The story included interview comments and a photo of T. Krauss at the Olds-Didsbury Airport. On July 6th, David Boucher of Global TV Calgary visited the Olds radar to film and conducted interviews with T. Krauss, J. Renick, and C. Lee (HS2 Crew). Also on July 6th, the Calgary Herald interviewed T. Krauss. On July 11th, Jim Renick was interviewed live on CBC Radio for their morning show. On July 12th, T. Krauss was interviewed again by CKFM radio in Olds, about the recent severe storms. On August 2nd J. Renick was interviewed by a radio station in Weyburn SK about cloud seeding for drought relief. On August 23rd, Jim Renick and Dave Johnson were interviewed by The Weather Network in Calgary. On August 31st, T. Krauss was interviewed by Cindy White of 660AM News radio in Calgary for a story that ran several times on Sept 7about the Anniversary of the Sept 7, 1991 severe hailstorm. On September 11th, Jacob Siebelink from Reformatorisch-Dagblad, a daily newspaper in the Netherlands, visited the radar and interviewed project personal. On the same day, about a dozen Mountain View County officials and agriculture specialists visited the radar in the afternoon for a tour and discussion about the project. Finally on September 14th, a film crew from Toronto called Creative Differences, working for the Discovery Channel (U.S.) program Best Evidence, interviewed Terry Krauss at the radar, and then filmed HS3 at the Red Deer Airport. All of the publicity was positive this year.
FLIGHT OPERATIONS
Three specially equipped cloud seeding aircraft were dedicated to the project. The aircraft and crews provided 24 hr coverage, seven days a week throughout the period. Two aircraft were stationed in Calgary and one aircraft in Red Deer. This permitted close proximity to storms and fast response to launch decisions. Delays in launching from Calgary were minimized thanks to the co-operation of NavCanada air traffic control in Calgary. When convective clouds were detected by radar, the seeding aircraft were placed on standby status. Aircraft on standby status are able to launch and reach a target cloud within 60 min after the request to launch has been made by the controlling meteorologist. When seedable clouds are imminent, the seeding aircraft are placed on alert status. Aircraft on alert status are able to launch and reach a target cloud within 25 min after the request to launch. Aircraft were available and prepared to commence a seeding mission at any time and the seeding of a storm often continued after darkness with due regard to safety.
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Air-Traffic Control
Prior to the start of field operations, arrangements were made with NAV Canada managers of Air Traffic Services in Calgary and Edmonton to coordinate the cloud seeding aircraft operations. Permission was granted to file pre-defined flight plans for the project aircraft, with special designations and fixed transponder codes. The designated aircraft were as follows: Hail-Stop 1 for the Cheyenne II airplane (N747RE) based in Calgary, Hail-Stop 2 for the C340 aircraft (N457DM) based in Calgary, and HailStop 3 for the King Air C90 aircraft (N911FG) stationed in Red Deer. Direct-line telephone numbers were used to notify air traffic controllers of cloud seeding launches. Aircraft were launched to a specific location identified by VOR and DME coordinates, or town. Distinct air traffic clearance was given to project aircraft within a 10 nautical mile radius of the specified storm location. Cloud top aircraft were given 2,000 ft clearances above their altitude and 7,000 ft below their altitude. Cloud base aircraft were given a +/- 1,000 ft altitude clearance. This procedure worked very well in general. On a few occasions, seeding aircraft were asked to climb to a higher altitude over the city of Calgary or to suspend seeding for a few minutes (<10 minutes) to allow other commercial aircraft to pass below them. The ATC clearances and codes are shown in Figure 22.
BE9L
Figure 22: Schematic figure showing aircraft cloud seeding block altitudes required for Air Traffic Control (ATC).
October 2006
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Cloud Seeding Aircraft Piper Cheyenne II

The Cheyenne II is a high performance twin-engine turboprop aircraft that has proven itself during seeding operations. The Cheyenne II stationed in Calgary, Hail Stop 1 (N747RE), is shown in Figure 23. In Alberta, two pilots are used at all times for improved communications and safety. Standard equipment includes full dual VFR/IFR instrumentation, pressurized cabin, and emergency oxygen. The Cheyenne II has full de-ice equipment and is particularly well suited for flying in icing conditions for extended periods of time. These conditions are common at seeding altitudes within the thunderstorms of Alberta. The longer mission times of this aircraft can provide coverage of the entire project area if required, allowing significant savings in aircraft, fuel and personnel costs. The added performance of the Cheyenne II means that it has sufficient power to climb safely above the dangerous icing zone (-10C to -15C) if required, or descend to lower and warmer altitudes to de-ice and quickly climb back up to cloud-top seeding altitude. It can also provide accurate measurements of cloud conditions and cloud temperature. A third seat was provided for training or observing purposes. The major advantages of the Cheyenne II are as follos: 4 hour duration or more for longer seeding missions and better seeding coverage; lower Jet fuel price per liter; reserve power for severe icing conditions; exceptional speed for rapid response or ferry between target areas; and higher margin of safety; The specifications of the Cheyenne II are given in an Appendix. All three aircraft were equipped with flare racks carrying 306 droppable flares containing 20 grams of AgI and also 28 end-burning flares containing 150 grams of AgI for seeding at cloud base. The Cheyenne II was also equipped with GPS navigation system, onboard weather avoidance radar, and a VHF radio system for direct contact with operational personnel at the communications and control center.
Figure 23: Piper Cheyenne II aircraft (N747RE) designated as Hail-Stop 1 shown at the Calgary Airport.
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Beech King-Air C90
Figure 24: Beech Craft King-Air C90 aircraft (N911FG) designated as Hail-Stop 3 shown at the Olds-Didsbury Airport. A photo of the Beechcraft King Air C90 designated Hail Stop 3 (N911FG) is shown in Figure 24 at the Olds-Didsbury Airport. The specifications of the King Air C90 are given in an Appendix. The King Air was similarly equipped as the Cheyenne II. The Cheyenne II and King Air C90 are both high performance twin-engine turboprop aircraft that have proven themselves during seeding operations.
C340A Aircraft
Cloud seeding was also conducted using one Cessna 340A aircraft equipped with ejectable flare belly racks, wing mounted flare racks, and acetone burners. The aircraft registered as N457DM was designated as Hail-Stop 2 (shown in Figure 25). The C340A aircraft is a pressurized, twin-engine, six cylinder, turbocharged and fuel-injected all weather aircraft. The C340 aircraft also has a weather avoidance radar and GPS navigation system. Complete specifications for the C340 are given in an Appendix. The C340 aircraft carried 306 20-g pencil flares and 24 150-g end-burning flares and two 7 US gallon acetone burners. Although the C340 can seed at cloud top, its performance is rather limited in known icing conditions. Therefore, the C340 is used primarily as a cloud-base seeder. During 2006, the C340 seeded one day at cloud top. Otherwise it was used exclusively as a cloud-base seeder.
October 2006
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Figure 25: C340A aircraft (N457DM) designated as Hail-Stop 2 and configured to seed with droppable flares, end-burning flares, and AgI acetone burners.
Meteorological Aircraft Instrumentation

Each of the cloud seeding aircraft had a temperature and liquid water sensor to help assure that the cloud penetration seeding runs were conducted at known temperature levels and to document the presence of supercooled liquid cloud water. A radio telemetry system was used to transmit the aircraft data to the radar communications and control center where it was displayed in real time and recorded at 1 sec intervals. These measurements, combined with the recorded radar data, helped assure that the project is conducted on a sound scientific basis. All three aircraft performed very reliably with no seeding opportunities were missed due to maintenance issues.
RADAR CONTROL AND COMMUNICATIONS CENTER

The projects radar control room consists of the Airlink computer with radio telemetry modem for GPS tracking information, as well as the TITAN computer and display, and the meteorological data acquisition (Compaq) computer. Controllers communicated with the seeding aircraft using a VHF radio at 122.95 MHz frequency. The controlling duties were shared by Terry Krauss, Jason Goehring, Andre Sinkevich, and Viktor Makitov (shown in Figure 26). An upgraded TITAN radar display and analysis computer system was installed in 2004 (shown in Figure 27). The new TITAN was able to display several new hail parameters that gave the meteorologists additional information to improve identification of hailstorms and improved the direction of the aircraft to the most important hail growth regions of the storm. The TITAN radar images were sent to the WMI web server at 5-min intervals, although there were often missing images in the web archive which were blamed on computer problems and interruptions in the microwave internet connection at the radar. The microwave modem at the radar was upgraded during the summer and this provided a slight improvement in August and September. A more reliable radar file transfer routine will be investigated
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for the future. High speed Internet was installed for the pilots in Calgary and Red Deer so that the pilots could closely monitor the storm evolution and motion. This gave the pilots better knowledge of the storm situation they were going to encounter when they were launched.
Figure 26: Dr. Viktor Makitov in the communications control room, showing the CIDD, TITAN, and Meteo/Airlink computers.
Figure 27: TITAN dual-display showing the various radar pictures and satellite photo available to the radar controller on 29-July-2006. A new Configurable Interactive Data Display (CIDD) computer system was installed in 2004. The new CIDD system was routinely set to display an animated 1-hour movie loop of the higher resolution polar
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radar data, super-imposed on a terrain map background. An example of the WMI-NCAR CIDD (Configurable Interactive Data Display) system used this year is shown in Figure 28.
Figure 28: WMI-NCAR CIDD display showing radar reflectivity data and topography. A vertical cross-section and clear-air outflow boundary are also shown.
RADAR
The WMI C-band weather radar is located at the Olds-Didsbury Airport Hangar #4 (Jackson hangar). The radar coordinates are 51.71 N Latitude, 114.11 W Longitude, with a station elevation of 1024 m above sea level. The WMO station identifier is no. 71359 and the ICAO airport identifier is CEA3. An upgraded C-band weather radar was installed in 2003. The new radar was very reliable and more sensitive than the previous, older unit, and was able to detect clouds earlier in their development cycle. The radar performed very well but there were two interruptions in service. The radar failed at 2 am on July 24th due to a broken wave-guide assembly within the antenna pedestal. Replacement parts had to be ordered from Fargo and the radar was back in service at 8 am on July 26. During this time, the web radar images from the Environment Canada radars at Strathmore and Carvel were used as guidance for cloud seeding operations. On July 27th at 1:27 pm, the radar was again shut down due to a broken piece of flex wave-guide at the pedestal. The flex portion of wave guide was replaced with a custom built solid metal wave guide and the radar was back in operation at 11 am on July 28th. Fortunately, seeding operations were not compromised during these periods and all threatening hailstorms were seeded. The radar is an Enterprise Electronics Corporation WR-100, C-band radar with an 8-ft antenna. A picture of the radar is shown in Figure 29. The WMI C-band (5 cm wavelength) radar is tower mounted and enclosed in a radome to provide safe, all weather operation. The nominal specifications of the C-band radar are: peak power = 250 kw, minimum detectable signal = -107 dBm, circular beam width = 1.65 deg. The minimum detectable signal corresponds to approximately 10 dBZ at 100 km range. A complete list of specifications for the C-band radar is given in the following section. An uninterruptable power supply (UPS) is used to assure there were no losses of service in the event of a power surge or drop. A gas-powered generator was used to provide emergency back-up power in the case of a power failure. Line power was very reliable at the airport during the summer and there were only a few momentary lapses in line-power during particularly bad lightning storms. The UPS and emergency generator worked very well. On September 16th the radar was shut off for the season; however, the tower and radar transmitter and display equipment have remained in place until next year.
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The radar antenna was raised 8 ft in 2001 in order to provide more clearance above nearby buildings that had been constructed at the Olds-Didsbury Airport. The base elevation radar scan was set to 0.8 degrees elevation in order reduce the amount of ground clutter, yet still provide a good viewing angle of the low-level precipitation at far ranges, especially over Calgary and Red Deer. The radar transmitter is located inside a shed built directly under the radar tower (shown in Figure 29). The radar shed is insulated and air-conditioned. The radome was repainted on August 25th, 2006.
Figure 29: WMI C-band radar at the Olds-Didsbury airport. The radar data acquisition computer RDAS is programmed to control the radar antenna such that a complete volume scan of 18 elevation steps, up to 45 elevation, was performed about every 4.8 min. The RDAS computer sends the polar coordinate radar data to the TITAN computer via a local area network and the TITAN computer performs the Cartesian transformation and records a permanent archive of all of the scans. The polar data were stored and displayed on the CIDD computer. All of the TITAN volume-scan radar data collected during 2006 have been recorded on CD-ROM. The GIF PPI picture files created every 5 min, have been archived onto CD-ROM.
Radar Calibration Checks

The quantitative use of radar requires that various parameters of the system be measured and calibrated. The WMI WR100 C-band radar located at the Olds-Didsbury Airport is used to direct seeding aircraft in the Alberta Hail Suppression Project. As such, it needs to provide accurate values of radar reflectivity along with range, azimuth and elevation.
October 2006
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Assuming that all the terms relating to the electrical components and propagation of the radar beam are constants and if we always assume we are looking at water, a simplified radar equation takes the form (Rinehart, 1997):
z = C pr r2
Thus, calculating radar reflectivity factor z is simply a matter of getting the power from a target of known range (times a constant). The WR100 parameters and calibration values are shown in Table 4. The RDAS radar acquisition software performs digital signal processing to simulate a quadratic response of the receiver output (Terblanche, 1996) and uses a reference range of 100 km. Table 4: Radar parameter calibration values for the ALBERTA-WMI WR100. value Pulse PRF Freq 0.0000033 256 5.64E+09 Duty cycle = Pulse * PRF Log -5.481 2.408 9.751 Db -54.81 24.08 97.51 -30.73 -107 -160.96 Units Sec Sec-1 Sec-1
Minimum detectable signal = Nominal Radar Constant for range in nmi (in the RDAS-TITAN convention)
DB DB
The radar was found to be stable from day to day and the radar transmitted power varied by no more than 0.5 dB over the operational period from June 1 to September 15. The WR100 transmitted power values measured during the summer are shown in Table 5. Table 5: Radar transmitted power calibration values measured during the 2006 season. Date 18-May-06 23-May-06 1-Jun-06 7-Jun-06 12-Jun-06 21-Jun-06 29-Jun-06 3-Jul-06 24-Jul-06 26-Jul-06 27-Jul-06 28-Jul-06 5-Aug-06 10-Aug-06 14-Aug-06 1-Sep-06 11-Sep-06
Power (dBm) 84 83.9 84 83.6 83.5 84 83.8 83.8
83.9 83.8 83.9 83.9 83.9 83.9 83.8
Notes Power (kw) 251 245 calibration 251 229 new crystal detector 224 251 fan replacement 240 calibration 240 mechanical failure of crown wave guide 245 pedestal flex wave guide fails 240 Replaced power supply. 245 245 245 Calibration using EC attenuator 245 240
October 2006
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Figure 30: Radar calibration of RDAS digital counts to equivalent radar reflectivity power (dBZ) for the WMI radar at Olds-Didsbury during the 2006 field season. When a radar is modified or repaired, it is important to check and/or recalibrate the RDAS computer which converts the raw radar video signal into a digital value (i.e.; number of RDAS counts) representing a known power (i.e.; equivalent dBZ value at 100 km range). The output power of the transmitter was measured regularly. The RDAS calibration curve was checked for accuracy at the start, mid-season, and again at the end of the season. The calibration tests measured during the summer of 2006 are shown in Figure 30. The calibrations show a change of approximately 5 dB between the early A special piece of test equipment (attenuator) was calibrations and the August 14th calibration. borrowed from Environment Canada for the August 14th calibration. This allowed a constant signal generator setting to be used, and the attenuator was used to reduce the power for the calibration. The August 14th calibration is thought to be more accurate, therefore, the radar reflectivity values prior to August 14th are likely to have been 5 db too low. The final calibration check for a radar system is a measurement of the pointing accuracy of the antenna. To check the antenna alignment and accuracy, the dish is pointed at the sun and its position coordinates in azimuth and elevation are cross-referenced to the accurate, known position of the sun at that exact time of day. The exact position of the sun can be determined using a computer program designed for that specific purpose. The pointing accuracy of the system was also verified numerous times by confirming the position of the aircraft relative to the position of an isolated echo.
AIRCRAFT TRACKING GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM (GPS)

The WMI weather radar control and communications center was equipped to receive and record data from the aircraft GPS position telemetry system. The GPS system displays the exact position of the aircraft superimposed on the radar PPI display to enable the controller to accurately direct the seeding aircraft to optimum seeding locations within the storm system. The colour coded aircraft position on the PPI display enabled radar controllers to discriminate between each project aircraft. The Airlink tracking
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system had its own PC as a dedicated aircraft tracking system. The real-time aircraft Global Positioning System (GPS) flight track display of AIRLINK on June 21st, 2006 is shown in Figure 31.
Figure 31: Aircraft Global Positioning System (GPS) flight tracks, and real-time information via the AIRLINK telemetry system on June 21, 2006. Airlink also displays when seeding events take place, but the locations of flare drops and location of the acetone generator usage are not displayed on the track in Figure 31 to reduce clutter in the figure. In addition, Airlink displays the available in-situ measurements that are also sent via the telemetry for display to the controller. This allowed the controller to monitor the temperature and concentration of supercooled liquid water encountered by the seeding aircraft during cloud penetrations.
SUMMAR Y OF SEEDING OPERATIONS

A brief summary of each day indicating the weather and operational activities is given in Appendix B. Further details regarding flight times, and the amount of seeding are given in the Flights and Operations Summary tables in the Appendices.
Flights
During this season, there were 92 aircraft flights totaling 190.2 hrs on 39 operational days. A total of 65 storms were seeded during 60 seeding flights (162.8 hrs) on 28 days on which seeding took place. There were 13 patrol flights (15.1 hrs) and 13 test flights (10.2 hrs). The amount of silver-iodide nucleating agent dispensed during the 2006 field season totaled 214 kg: consisting of 4929 ejectable (cloud-top) flares (98.6 kg seeding agent), 703 end-burning (cloud-base) flares (105.5 kg seeding agent), and 145.4 gallons of AgI-acetone solution (9.97 kg seeding agent). There were 6 flights (2.1 hrs) for public relations, marketing, or media purposes. The distribution of take-off and landing times as a function of time of day is shown in Figure 32. Most of the flights were between 1 pm and 10 pm. The 50% percentile for take-offs is 3 pm and the 50%
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percentile for landings is approximately 6 pm. The convective storms in Alberta have a strong diurnal cycle associated with the period of daily maximum temperature. In Alberta, the temperature usually cools off sufficiently when the sun goes down to prevent continued deep convection. Occasionally, however, a passing cold-front or upper-level disturbance is strong enough to trigger evening convection, therefore, nocturnal storms cannot be ruled out. This is in contrast to the storms and experiences of WMI in Mendoza, Argentina where half the storms occurred after sunset.
Figure 32: The frequency of occurrence and cumulative distributions of aircraft take-off and landing times for all flights as a function on time during 2006.
Figure 33: Amount of seeding material dispensed per operational day in 2006.
October 2006
Table 6: Operational Statistics for 1996 to 2006.
Alberta
2006
2005 27 80
2004 29 105
2003 26 92
2002 27 92
2001 36 109
2000 33 130
1999 39 118
1998 31 96
1997* 38 92
1996* 29 71
Total 343 1077
Average 31.2 97.9
Storm Days with 28 Seeding Aircraft 92 Missions Total Flight 190.2 Time (hrs) Number of Storms 65 Seeded Total Seeding Material (kg) AgI/day AgI/hour AgI/Storm
157.9
227.5
163.6
157.4
208.3
265.2
251.3
189.9
188.1
159.1
2158.5
196.2
70
90
79
54
98
136
162
153
108
75
1090
99.1
214 7.6 1.1 3.3
159.1 5.9 1.0 2.3 3770 515 94.2

th
270.9 9.3 1.2 3.0 6513 877.0 132.7
173.4 6.7 1.1 2.2 4465 518.0 92.6
124.2 4.6 0.8 2.3 3108 377.0 80.3
195.0 5.4 0.9 2.0 5225 533.0 140.8
343.8 10.4 1.3 2.5 9653 940.0 141.3
212.7 5.5 0.8 1.3 4439 690.0 297.5
111.1 3.6 0.6 0.7 2023 496.0 193.8
110.8 2.9 0.6 1.0 2376 356.0 144.3
163.3 5.6 1.0 2.2 3817 542.0 80.5
2078.3
188.9 6.1 0.9 2.1
Eject 4929 Flares BIP flares 703 Acetone (gal)

th
50318 6547 1543.4
4574.4 595.2 140.3
145.4
* June 15 to September 15 during 1996 and 1997.
45
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Seeding Amounts
The amount of seeding material dispensed on each day of operations in 2006 is shown in Figure 33. There were 8 days on which >10 kg of seeding material was dispensed during 2006. In comparison, there were 6 days during 2003 and 2005 on which >10 kg was dispensed, and 16 days >10 kg during 2004. The eight greatest seed days in 2006 were: July 9th (21.4 kg), August 3rd (19.5 kg), July 17th (16.8 kg), June 21st (16.4 kg), July 1st (15.8 kg), June 30th (13.8 kg), August 9th (10.9 kg), and July 6th (10.4 kg).
Comparison Of 2006 With Previous Years

Table 6 gives a list of the operational statistics for the past eleven years of the Alberta Hail Suppression Project. These statistics can be useful for planning purposes. This summer had an average number of storm days, aircraft missions, and flight hours. However, the total amount of seeding was greater, and there was an above average amount of seeding per day, per hour, and per storm. This supports our subjective impression that the storms during 2006 tended to be more severe and longer lived than average. The greater seeding material and flight hours could also be due in part to the expanded project area. The best seeding coverage is achieved by seeding simultaneously at cloud base and cloud top the developing feeder clouds along the upwind side of a mature storm. The Cheyenne II and King Air aircraft have proven themselves as excellent cloud-top seeders. The seeding strategy has been to stagger the launch of the seeding aircraft, and use one aircraft to seed at cloud base and one aircraft at cloud top when the storm is over the highest priority areas. However, if multiple storms threaten three areas at the same time, generally only one aircraft is used on each storm, or the aircraft are th concentrated on the highest population area around Calgary. This happened on August 10 when only Hailstop 3 was used to seed the storm that caused considerable damage at Springbrook, south of Red Deer, because Hailstop 2 was seeding storms near High River and Hailstop 1 was used to seed storms near Calgary.
Comparison by Aircraft
A summary of the flare usage according to aircraft during the past 11 years is given in Table 7. The Cessna 340 (Hailstop 2) has been primarily used as a cloud base seeding aircraft because it has less performance than the other two prop-jet aircraft. Nevertheless, Hailstop 2 seeded effectively at cloud top on July 12th and served a very useful purpose seeding for long periods, continuously at cloud base using a combination of BIP flares and acetone generators. Hailstop 1 in Calgary has been a Piper Cheyenne II for all 11 years, and Hailstop 2 in Calgary has been a Cessna 340A for all 11 years. Hailstop 3 in Red Deer was a C340 for 4 years (1996-99), a Cheyenne II from 2000 to 2003, and 2005, and a Beech King Air C90 in 2004 and 2006. The advantages of the C90 are that it has slightly longer endurance for increased seeding time, and good performance for reaching the far western regions of the target area near Rocky Mountain House in a reasonable amount of time (e.g. <30 min). All aircraft remained serviceable for the entire operational period, and there were no major maintenance issues. Table 7: Cloud seeding flare usage comparison by aircraft.
Year
Hailstop 1 Calgary Cheyenne II

FLIGHT hrs FLARES
Hailstop 2 Calgary C340

FLIGHT hrs FLARES ACETONE
Hailstop 3 Red Deer Cheyenne II, C90, or C340

FLIGHT hrs FLARES and ACETONE
October 2006
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2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
54.0 3217 top, 179 base 49.1 2750 top, 169 base 83.2 5574 top, 359 base 63.9 3598 top, 250 base 57.1 1994 top, 163 base 62.4 3174 top, 216 base 89.5 4755 top, 379 base 91.3 3795 top, 313 base 62.2 1880 top, 107 base 70.2 1828 top, 62 base 61.6 2128 top, 143 base
70.2 72 top, 248 base, 58.2 hr 44.8 0 top, 121 base, 37.7 hr 62.2 0 top, 196 base, 53.1 hr 54.2 0 top, 130 base, 37.1 hr 49.3 2 top, 73 base, 32.1 hr 74.8 4 top, 215 base, 56.3 hr 77.4 164 top, 193 base, 56.5 hr 81.4 244 top, 197 base, 59.6 hr 68.4 134 top, 199 base, 29.2 hr 58.0 264 top, 128 base, 25.9hr 45.8 895 top, 192 base, 9.4 hr
66.0 1640 top, 276 base C90 King Air 63.9 1020 top, 225 base Cheyenne II 82.1 939 top, 322 base C90 King Air 45.5 867 top, 138 base Cheyenne II 51.0 1112 top, 141 base Cheyenne II 68.1 2093 top, 102 base Cheyenne II 97.4 4734 top, 368 base Cheyenne II 78.6 400 top, 180 base, 59.4 hr C340 59.4 9 top, 190 base, 48.3 hr C340 60.0 284 top, 166 base, 31.8 hr C340 51.7 794 top, 207 base, 22.8 hr C340
1998
1997
1996
October 2006
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STORM TRACK MAPS
Figure 34: Map of all hailstorm tracks during 2006 (courtesy of Jim Renick). The summer of 2006 was a very active storm season around Calgary. A map of all hailstorm tracks (determined by radar) during 2006 is shown in Figure 34. June and July were the busiest months and there were a number of long-lived storms or super cells during July. There were ten severe storms that tracked across or within the city limits of Calgary, and seven other severe storms that were near misses, but caused some damage in the urban sprawl that surrounds Calgary.
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WEATHER FORECASTING
The daily forecast for the hail project was routinely prepared each morning by one of the meteorologists at the Radar, and presented at the weather briefing telephone conference call at 12 noon. The forecast time period for verification was considered to be 24 hrs, spanning the period from 6am to 6 am. The primary input data used for the forecast included the following: Regional analyses at 250 mb, 500 mb, 700 mb. Upper air sounding data from Edmonton or Kelowna ETA model forecast soundings for Calgary, Red Deer, Sundre, and Rocky Mtn. House. Public and Aviation Forecasts Severe weather charts Numerical model forecasts (GEM, ETA/NAM) Satellite pictures Radar pictures from Environment Canada facilities at Strathmore and Carvel. All of the meteorological data downloaded via the internet during the field season have been stored on CD-ROM for future reference purposes.
Convective Day Category (CDC)

After the weather forecast is produced, a Convective Day Category (CDC) is selected that best describes the conditions that are expected for the day. The CDC (Strong, 1979) is an index that gives the potential for hailstorm activity and seeding operations. A description of the weather conditions for each CDC is given in Table 8. The distinction between the -2 and -1 category is sometimes difficult, since overcast or prolonged rain eventually breaks up into scattered showers. The maximum VIL pixel values were used for forecast verification purposes of hail size in the absence of surface hail reports. Radar VIL values were used within the project area or buffer zones on the north, east, and south sides (not including the western buffer zone). This may have increased the number of hail days from the early years, which relied on a human report of hail fall at the surface; however, it is believed to be a more realistic measure of hail. There were a few days when pea size hail was reported and the VIL 2 was < 10 kg/m . These cases were classified as +1 days, and surface reports supersede the radar criterion. The +1 category minimum hail size was assumed to be 5 mm since this is a common minimum size for hail used by numerical modelers. Smaller ice particles < 5mm diameter are generally called snow pellets or graupel particles. Table 8: Description of Convective Day Category (CDC) Index CDC Strategy Description
-3
No Seed
Clear skies, fair weather cumulus, or stratus (with no rain). No deep convection.
-2
No Seed
Towering cumulus, alto-cumulus, alto-stratus, or nimbostratus producing rain for several hours or weak echoes (e.g. virga).
-1
No Seed
Scattered convective rain showers but no threat of hail. reports of lightning. Convective echoes < 40 dBZ.
No
Patrol flights and potential seeding.
Thunderstorms (at least one) but no hail. VIL < 10 kg/m2 within the project area or buffer zones on north, east, and south sides.
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+1
Seed
Thunderstorms with pea or shot sized hail (0.5 to 1.2 cm diameter). 10 kg/m2 < VIL < 20 kg/m2 Thunderstorms with grape sized hail (1.3 to 2.0 cm diameter). 20 kg/m2 < VIL < 50 kg/m2 Thunderstorms with walnut sized hail (2.1 to 3.2 cm diameter). 50 kg/m2 < VIL < 100 kg/m2 Thunderstorms with golfball sized hail (3.3 to 5.2 cm diameter). VIL > 100 kg/m2 Thunderstorms with greater than golfball sized hail (>5.2 cm diameter).
+2
Seed
+3
Seed
+4
Seed
+5
Seed
Various meteorological parameters are also forecast in addition to the CDC. These parameters are used in developing a seeding strategy and are passed on to pilots during the weather briefing. The meteorological parameters are recorded each day and archived for future analysis. A summary of the daily meteorological parameters is given in a later section and the full table of parameters is given in an Appendix.
Coordinated Universal Time

The standard reference time chosen for the project field operations is coordinated universal time (UTC). This time was formerly called Greenwich Mean Time (GMT or Zulu time) and is the accepted international standard of time for general aviation and meteorological observations, reporting, and communication. In Alberta, UTC is 6 hrs ahead of local Mountain Daylight time. For example, 12 noon local is equal to 1800 UTC, and 6 pm local is equal to 2400 or 00 UTC. This causes some confusion since many of the thunderstorms occurred late in the day and span the 6 pm local time which is midnight or 00 hrs UTC. The standard convention incorporated by the Alberta project is to report all aircraft, radar, and meteorological times in UTC, however, for convenience, the summary tables are all organized according to the local calendar storm day with respect to Mountain Daylight Time.
Daily Briefings
All project staff and the ASWMS Director participated in a telephone conference briefing session each day at 12 noon sharp. Teamwork depends on good communications, and all staff were required to attend the daily noon briefing. This briefing session included a debriefing summary of the previous days operations (if any), discussion of the weather situation, presentation of the weather forecast and operational meteorological statistics, predicted hail threat, cloud base heights and temperatures, upper level winds, storm motion, equipment status reports, and operational plans for the day. After the briefing, crews were put on telephone stand-by or asked to remain at the airport on stand-by. All staff were equipped with cell telephones to allow quick access and constant communications day or night.
Meteorological Statistics
A complete listing of the daily meteorological statistics is given in Appendix K. A summary of the important daily atmospheric parameters used as inputs for the daily forecast of the CDC and threat of hail is given in Table 9. A comparison of these atmospheric parameters with last year indicates that 2006 was warmer (heights of temperature levels increased in 2006), and wetter (higher dew point and precipitable water). Cloud base heights were generally warmer. The atmosphere was generally more unstable in 2006 compared with 2005.
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Table 9: Summary of daily atmospheric parameters used as inputs for the daily forecast the CDC during 2006.
Parameter
FCST CDC Precip. Water (in) 0C Level (kft) -5C Level (kft) -10C Level (kft) Cloud Base Height (kft) Cloud Base Temp (C) Maximum Cloud Top Height (kft) Temp. Maximum (C) Dew Point (C) Conv Temp (C) CAPE (J/kg) Total Totals Lifted Index Showalter Cell Direction (deg) Cell Speed (knots) Storm Direction (deg) Storm Speed (knots) Low Level Wind Direction (deg) Low Level Wind Speed (knots) Mid Level Wind Direction (deg) Mid Level Wind Speed (knots) High Level Wind Direction (deg) High Level Wind Speed (knots) Observed CDC
Average
-0.40 0.78 12.01 14.48 17.11 9.35 5.28 28 23 10 22 549 53.3 -1.91 -1.86 270 21 279 14 262 15 263 25 249 46 -0.29
All Days (107) StdDev Max Value

1.60 0.18 1.82 1.89 1.92 1.72 3.28 8.34 4.68 2.92 5.7 471 4.0 2.36 2.40 47 9 74 6 54 6 53 12 63 22 2.00 4 1.20 16.7 19.2 21.8 13.2 13.8 41.3 32.0 17.0 35.0 1998 63.0 7.6 8.0 360 45 360 30 355 35 345 60 350 115 5
Min Value
-3 0.35 5.7 9.2 12.0 5.6 -3.4 10.4 5.0 3.0 5.0 0 39.9 -6.3 -6.8 10 3 5 4 25 3 5 5 4 9 -3
Hail fell within the project area on 35 days. Larger than golf ball size hail fell on July 9th near Heritage Pointe golf course (South of Calgary), and on the afternoon of July 29th west of Olds. Golf ball size hail was reported on three days (July 6th near Eckville), July 12th west of Airdrie, and on August 10th near Markerville and the Red Deer Regional Airport/Springbrook). Walnut size hail was reported on five days (July 17th, 28th, 30th, Aug 3rd, and Aug 9th). A summary of the important daily forecast atmospheric parameters on the 35 days on which hail was reported is given in Table 10. These values represent typical conditions for hail days in Alberta. These statistics help put the Alberta project clouds in context with other hail suppression projects around the world. Furthermore, these values can be used to initialize numerical models for research purposes. The atmosphere on hail days in 2006 was generally warmer, more humid, and more unstable than the hail days in 2005. These data support the observation of more hail and more severe storms in 2006 compared with 2005.
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Table 10: Summary of daily forecast atmospheric parameters on hail days during 2006.
Parameter
FCST CDC Precip. Water (in) 0C Level (kft) -5C Level (kft) -10C Level (kft) Cloud Base Height (kft) Cloud Base Temp (C) Maximum Cloud Top Height (kft) Temp. Maximum (C) Dew Point (C) Conv Temp (C) CAPE (J/kg) Total Totals Lifted Index Showalter Cell Direction (deg) Cell Speed (knots) Storm Direction (deg) Storm Speed (knots) Low Level Wind Direction (deg) Low Level Wind Speed (knots) Mid Level Wind Direction (deg) Mid Level Wind Speed (knots) High Level Wind Direction (deg) High Level Wind Speed (knots) Observed CDC
Average
0.89 0.86 12.04 14.39 16.96 9.05 6.77 32 23 12 22 822 55.4 -3.45 -3.30 273 22 287 15 267 16 258 26 245 44 1.97
Hail Days (35) StdDev Max Value

1.16 0.18 1.37 1.59 1.75 1.34 3.19 4.75 3.22 2.71 4.2 416 3.1 1.48 1.59 34 7 55 5 40 7 53 10 48 19 1.27 4 1.20 14.7 18.1 21.3 10.8 13.8 39.0 29.0 17.0 30.0 1717 63.0 -0.4 -0.4 360 35 357 25 345 35 329 50 310 100 5
Min Value
-2 0.60 9.8 12.2 14.2 5.6 0.8 18.0 16.0 6.0 14.8 162 46.8 -6.3 -6.8 170 10 25 5 155 3 5 10 30 9 1
For the entire Province of Alberta, the Alberta Agriculture Financial Services Corporation in Lacombe reported hail damage to crops (days with >1 claim) on 67 days (4 days in May, 13 days in June, 23 days in July, 21 days in August, and 6 days in September). Golf ball size hail was reported on 7 days (June 14th, July 5th, 9th, 10th and 12th, and August 9th and 10th) this summer in Alberta. Preliminary data from crop insurance claims indicates that crop damage in 2006 was approximately 6% above the 1986 to 1995 average. This was a bad summer for severe weather across the prairies. Environment Canada reported at the end of August that there had been 34 severe hail days in Alberta, 24 severe hail days in Saskatchewan, and 29 severe hail days in Manitoba. Furthermore, there had been 5 tornados reported in Alberta, 5 in Saskatchewan, and 9 in Manitoba. A tornado was reported on July 9th near Pine Lake, and another on August 16th near Rocky Mountain House. Both tornados were short lived and did not produce any damage. No tornados were reported from any seeded storms and our pilots spotted none. Alberta wide, 2006 was an above-average year for the number of hail days and severe hail days. In general, the weather in the project area this summer was warm and dry, with an above average number of days with temperatures > 30 deg C.
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Forecasting Performance
The following tables indicate the forecasting performance for the summer season with respect to the forecast and observed weather conditions as defined by the Convective Day Category or CDC within the project area. A CDC greater than zero indicates hail. The forecasts were verified by the weather observations as reported by Environment Canada, crop insurance reports received from the Agriculture Financial Services Corp. in Lacombe, and also by public reports of hail in the press, radio, and television, as well as by the reports from project personnel. The Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) radar parameter was also used as a verification tool, but secondary to actual hail reports. Referring to Table 11: Hail fell within the project area on 35 of 107 days (33%), leaving 72 days without hail (67%). The forecast was correct in forecasting no-hail on 62 of 72 observed no-hail days (86%) and correctly forecast hail days on 24 of 35 days (69%). The forecast failed to correctly forecast hail on 11 of 35 days (31%) and incorrectly forecast hail (false alarm) on 10 of the 72 days when no-hail was observed (14%). The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for WMI this past year (from Table 11) is 0.55. The HSS varies from 1 for no skill to +1 for perfect forecasts. The skill is considered significant if HSS>0.4. The HSS for the WMI forecasters was the highest in the last three years, and indicated significant skill. This is likely due to the expereience gained by Jason and Andre last year. The Critical Success Index (CSI) is the ratio of the successful hail forecasts divided by the sum of all hail forecasts plus the busts. The CSI does not incorporate the null event (no-hail forecast and no-hail observed), and is also a popular measure of the skill of forecasts. The CSI for WMI this past year was 0.53, also the highest in the last three years. Referring to Table 12: The exact forecast weather type (CDC) was observed on 49 of 107 days or 46% of the time. The forecast was correct to within one CDC category on 84 days or 79% of the time. Unfortunately, there were four days when grape or larger sized hail fell and hail was not forecast, although thunderstorms were forecast. Again this year, there were several days when large hail fell very early in the morning (i.e.; at 6 am near Eckville on July 6, 2006). After this event, the forecasters paid more attention to the instability of soundings forecast for 6 am the following morning. Table 11: Table of the Observed versus Forecast days with Hail and No-Hail for the summer of 2006.
Observed Days No Hail Hail FCST Days No Hail FCST Days Hail Totals 62 [86%] 10 [14%] 72 [67%] 11 [31%] 24 [69%] 35 [33%]
Totals 73 [68%] 34 [32%] 107
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Table 12: Table of Forecast versus Observed CDC daily values 2006.
Observed Convective Day Category (CDC) Weather 2006 -3 -3 -2 -1 0

Forecast
-2 2 7 1 3 1
-1
5 13
11 5 2 1
3 8 4
20 11
12 7 2
5 8 4
1 3 1
2 2 1 1
1 1 2
29 24 8 1
CDC
1 2 3 4 5 19
1 14 15 24 19 5 6 3 2
1 0 107
Percent correct exact CDC category = 49/107 = 46% Percent correct within one CDC category = 84/107 = 79% Number of times no-hail observed when no-hail was forecast = 62/72 (86%) Number of times hail observed when hail forecast = 24/35 (69%) Percentage Correct for Hail & No Hail forecasts = 86/107 (80%) Bust forecast: i.e. hail observed when no hail was forecast = 11/35 (31%) False alarm: i.e. hail forecast and none observed = 10/72 (14%) A table showing the break down of CDC values for each of the past 11 seasons is shown in Table 13. This year had above average number of large hail days, and above average number of thunderstorm days. There also were an above average number of sunny, warm, and clear (CDC=-3) days. In general, Alberta had a hot and dry summer, but when thunderstorms formed, they tended to be more severe and produced larger hail than the historical average for the previous 10 years. Table 13: Annual Summary of Convective Day Categories (CDC) -3 1996 1997 1998 1999 27 7 14 21 -2 21 19 24 18 -1 12 6 2 8 Observed CDC 0 1 2 11 28 29 24 5 19 23 22 12 11 8 10 3 3 3 2 2 4 1 0 4 1 5 1 0 1 1 Totals 93 93 107 107
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Totals Average Max Min
13 20 27 24 11 13 19 196 17.8 27 7
21 4 8 7 4 13 14 153 13.9 24 4
8 19 20 20 28 22 15 160 14.5 28 2
26 18 16 28 29 28 24 261 23.7 29 11
18 19 15 8 15 17 19 180 16.4 23 5
9 18 17 12 11 9 5 122 11.1 18 5
2 5 3 2 3 1 6 32 2.9 6 1
9 4 1 5 5 2 3 35 3.2 9 0
1 0 0 1 1 2 2 10 0.9 2 0
107 107 107 107 107 107 107 1149
The Hailcast Model

The HAILCAST model (Brimelow, 1999, Brimelow et al, 2006) was again used this summer to objectively forecast the maximum hail size over the project area. HAILCAST consists of two components, namely a steady-state one-dimensional cloud model and a 1-dimensional, time dependent hail model with microphysics. The reader is referred to Brimelow (1999) for a detailed explanation of the model. ETA forecast soundings for Red Deer and Calgary were downloaded daily from the Storm Machine website. A decision tree scheme was used to determine whether or not the soundings should be used to initialize the model. The decision tree is based on the work of Mills and Colquhoun (1998). The decision tree logic was described in detail in the 2003 final report. Basically, the Hailcast model was not supposed to be run if the atmospheric profile showed significant inhibition at 700 mb (approximately 10 kft) or warming > 1 C aloft during the day. Table 14 shows the Hailcast Forecast versus Observed table st th of Daily CDC values for the period June 1 to September 15 2006. Table 14: Table of Forecast versus Observed CDC daily values using HAILSCAST during the summer of 2006. Hailcast CDC -3 No Run or No Hail +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 18 0 1 0 0 0 19 Observed CDC -2 -1 0 +1 12 2 0 0 0 0 14 13 2 0 0 0 0 15 7 9 3 4 1 0 24 8 3 3 3 2 0 19 +2 0 1 1 1 2 0 5 +3 +4 +5 0 2 0 3 1 0 6 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 61 19 8 11 8 0 107
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The probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Heidke Skill Score (HSS), and Critical Success Index (CSI) performance of HAILCAST and WMI from 2002 to 2006 are shown in Table 15. Table 15: Probability of detection (POD). false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI) performance of HAILCAST and WMI from 2002 to 2006. POD - HAILCAST POD WMI FAR - HAILCAST FAR WMI HSS - HAILCAST HSS - WMI CSI - HAILCAST CSI - WMI 2002 0.81 0.83 0.34 0.33 0.56 0.59 0.57 0.59 2003 0.76 0.86 0.56 0.16 0.33 0.63 0.39 0.59 2004 .91 .60 .47 .30 .39 .51 .51 .49 2005 .84 .61 .45 .18 .31 .42 .40 .42 2006 .69 .69 .31 .14 .35 .55 .42 .53
The performance of the HAILCAST model in 2006 was good but not great. The probability of detection of hail events was 0.69, which was exactly the same as the WMI forecaster. However, the false alarm ratio of HAILCAST in 2006 was 0.31 indicating that hail was forecast on 22 of 72 days when hail was not reported. Perhaps the hail fell only in the foothills and not within the project area, however, the reliability of the Hailcast forecast suffered because of this. The number of Bust days was also 31%; that is, 11 of 35 hail days. On 8 of these 11 days, only pea size hail was observed. Rather disturbing is that Hailcast missed two larger than golf-ball size days, and one golfball size hail day. At the time of this report, a critical analysis of whether Hailcast was properly run or not-run on the large hail days has not been possible. It is possible that the decision tree routine of parameters that decide when it should be run was not followed properly. Also, any failures in the ETA model to accurately predict the atmospheric sounding will directly lead to error in the Hailcast model. The HSS for Hailcast was only 0.35 due to the many false-alarms, which is just below the value of 0.4 which is generally considered to be the threshold level of skill. The CSI for Hailcast was .42, slightly less than the CSI for the WMI forecaster. These results demonstrate that while HAILCAST is a useful tool it has weakness similar to many models and the results need to be interpreted within the context of the overall meteorological situation, taking into consideration other synoptic, meso-scale, or dynamical aspects that are not included in the one-dimensional model. One must also keep in mind that the input to Hailcast was routinely the 12 hr prognostic soundings of the ETA model. At least one of the golfball hail days occurred at 6 am in the morning, therefore, it is quite likely that the input to Hailcast was not correct on that day. Further research into the refinement of the Hailcast decision tree is warranted, and extra care must be taken to input the proper sounding.
Large Hail Days Sounding Comparison

The only upper air station in Alberta is located at Edmonton. Radiosonde balloons are launched twice daily and atmospheric profiles of temperature, humidity, and winds are measured at 12Z (6 am) and 00Z (6 pm). The Edmonton sounding is not representative in either space or time for the atmospheric conditions that produce the thunderstorms in the project area between Red Deer and Calgary. Non representative soundings create a big challenge to weather forecasters. Numerical models continue to improve, and prognostic virtual atmospheric soundings are now used heavily by forecasters as input to our weather forecasts, including numerical hail models such as Hailcast. During 2003 and 2004, a limited number of radiosondes balloons were released from the Olds Didsbury Airpot during A-GAME. Those data indicated a good agreement between the US ETA model prognostic profiles and our measured soundings. In an attempt to check the accuracy of the US ETA model soundings during 2006, the Edmonton radiosonde sounding was compared with the ETA model prognostic, virtual sounding for Edmonton. This was done daily for the month of July 2006. The following sections present the comparison of results for 4 days in July when large hail fell within the project area. If the ETA model did a good job in
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predicting the Edmonton sounding, then one can assume that the ETA model did a reasonable job in predicting the atmospheric conditions within the project area.
06 July 2006
On July 6th, 2006 golfball size hail was reported near Eckville at 6 am. A comparison of the Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 6th with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding for Edmonton is shown in Figure 35. The ETA model accurately predicted the key features of the observed sounding. The temperature, humidity, and wind profiles show remarkable agreement. The low level moisture is accurately predicted. The dry layer near 6 km (20 kft) is underestimated but clearly visible. The small inversion observed at 4.2 km (15 kft) is not shown in the model, but there is definitely a warming bulge shown in the temperature profile. The low level easterly winds were forecast, and the 50 kt southwesterly winds at 12 km were also forecast accurately. The amount of instability represented by the Lifted Index and CAPE show excellent agreement. Overall, the ETA model did a very good job on July 6, 2006.
Figure 35: Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 6, 2006 (red), compared with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding (blue) for Edmonton.
09 July 2006
On July 9th, 2006 golfball size hail was reported in Calgary, and tennis ball size hail was reported east of the project area. A comparison of the Edmonton sounding at 6 am on July 9th with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding for Edmonton is shown in Figure 36. The prognostic temperature, humidity, and wind profiles show excellent agreement with the radiosonde measurements. The low-level inversion, warm air aloft, and humidity profile in the low levels were all represented by the model. The radiosonde observed a cloud layer between 4.5 km and 7 km and the small difference between the temperature and dew point traces in the modeled profile are indicative of a cloud layer. The wind direction and speed aloft also show excellent agreement.
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Figure 36: Edmonton sounding at 6 am on July 9, 2006 (red), compared with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding (blue) for Edmonton.
12 July 2006
On July 12th, 2006 golfball size hail was reported west of Airdrie. A comparison of the Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 12th with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding for Edmonton is shown in Figure 37. The temperature profile shows good agreement, but the ETA model on this day seems to be overestimating the humidity and definitely has overestimated the surface dew point. The wind profile is generally good, but the model has not accurately predicted the depth of easterly winds, although they are quite light. The upper winds show good agreement, especially the winds >50 kts at 10.5 km.
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29 July 2006
On July 29th, 2006 golfball size hail was reported 8 mi west of the radar. A comparison of the Edmonton sounding at 6 pm on July 29th with the ETA model 12 hr forecast sounding for Edmonton is shown in Figure 38. On this day, the low level conditions were very tricky. The model accurately predicted the near saturated conditions below cloud base, and indicated a low-level temperature inversion, but didnt get the height exactly right. The model also over predicted the moisture above 6 km, and the radiosonde observed a dry layer at 7 km. The model, however, did a very good job in predicting strong westerly winds in the layer from 7 km to 14 km.
Summary
In general, the ETA model does a remarkable job in predicting the temperature, moisture, and wind profiles 12 hrs in advance over Alberta. The virtual soundings, however, still need to be interpreted in terms of details such as inversions, dry layers, and cloud layers. The good agreement for Edmonton, gives one confidence that the ETA model should also do a good job for Calgary and Red Deer. One added complication for Calgary is the close proximity to the mountains. Certainly the ETA virtual soundings for Calgary and Red Deer are a valuable forecasting tool, and in many cases are more accurate than using the observed Edmonton sounding.
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THE CALGARY STORM OF JULY 9TH, 2006

A series of severe thunderstorms moved across the City of Calgary on the afternoon of July 9th, 2006. All three seeding aircraft were involved in the seeding operations on this day, and several regions in and around Calgary reported large hail. This was the heaviest day of seeding during 2006, and represents a good case study to describe the project operations.
Meteorological Situation
A weak cold front moving south, with an associated wind shift and a line of clear air echo, occurred at Red Deer about 11 am, and just after 12 noon at the radar. This weak front triggered the first storm cells NW of Airdrie, but these did not maintain themselves. A short while later around 19Z (1pm), explosive storm cell development occurred at the southern end of the weak front, W of Cochrane. These storms tracked eastward across the City of Calgary. The Maximum Reflectivity radar map showing the storm tracks on July 9th, 2006 is shown in Figure 39. The aircraft tracks on July 9th for Hailstop 1, 2, and 3 are shown in Figure 40.
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Figure 39: Maximum Reflectivity map for the storms on 9-July-2006.
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Figure 40: Aircraft tracks for Hailstop 1(green), 2(white), and 3(blue) on 9-July-2006. The GEM model 12 hr forecast for the 500 mb level at 6 pm, 9 July 2006 is shown in Figure 41. A 500 mb Low-pressure center was located north of Vancouver Island and there was southwesterly flow over central Alberta and a small positive vorticity center (i.e. short-wave disturbance) was forecast to be over Calgary at 00Z. A surface Low was forecast to be located near Calgary at 00Z. The corresponding upper wind 250 mb jet stream map at 6 pm on 9 July 2006 is shown in Figure 42. The 250 mb Jet Stream was north of the project area. A southerly Low Level Jet was forecast over Calgary. The surface analysis at 18Z (12 pm) is shown in Figure 43. A surface Low was already shown over Calgary at 18Z. The maximum temperature in Calgary reached 26.1 C between 1 and 2 pm. The low-level moisture was very high and Calgary recorded a temperature of 26 C and dew point of 17 C at 1pm. Although the atmospheric dynamics were relatively weak, the thermodynamic instability was very strong. The ETA 12 hr forecast atmospheric sounding for Calgary at 6 pm (00UTC) on 9 July 2006 is shown in Figure 44. The observed temperature (26 C) and surface dew point (17 C) at 1 pm were input into the sounding and the corresponding convective atmospheric potential energy (CAPE) was an impressive 3285 J/kg, lifting the air parcel from the surface. The conditions were sufficient for strong multi-cell or weak super-cell storms to develop according to the RAOB program. The storms would likely have been more severe if there and been stronger winds aloft.
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Figure 41: GEM model 12 hr forecast of 500 mb heights and vorticity at 6 pm 9-July-2006 (00Z, 10 July 2006).
Figure 42: Jet stream analysis at 6 pm 9-July-2006 (00Z, 10 July 2006).

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Figure 43: Surface analysis at 18Z (12 pm) on July 9th, 2006.
Figure 44: ETA 12 hr forecast atmospheric sounding for Calgary at 6 pm (00UTC) on July 9th 2006. Also shown is the trace for a lifted parcel with Temperature 26C and Dew Point 17C as reported in Calgary at 1 pm.
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The map of surface 3-hr pressure changes and wind vectors at 18Z on July 9th, is shown in Figure 45. Pressures were falling slightly in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, indicative of lee-troughing conditions. The important features are the strong southeasterly winds in SE Alberta, which contributed to the high surface moisture. These southeasterly winds also created convergence and lifting along the foothills, sufficient to trigger thunderstorms. The map of surface streamlines and equivalent potential temperature (Theta-E) at 12 pm (18Z) on July 9th, is shown in Figure 46. The streamline map shows the convergence near Calgary and a region of high energy (Theta-E >340 deg K) near Calgary. The warm-moist air was pushing up against the foothills and causing convergence along the foothills. The corresponding surface moisture-flux divergence and wind gust map at 18Z on July 9th, is shown in Figure 47. A region of strong convergence was centered over Calgary, and thunderstorms developed within this region shortly after this time. Overall, the danger of this meteorological situation was well forecast in advance, and the severity of the storms was not a surprise.
Figure 45: Map of surface 3-hr pressure changes and wind vectors at 12 pm (18Z) on July 9th, 2006. Two satellite images at 21Z (3 pm) and 23Z (5 pm) show the development over time of the intense thunderstorms over Calgary in Figures 48 and 49 respectively. The storms developed in the darker region (region of low water vapor between 4 and 12 km altitude), at the nose of the low-level Jet streak as indicated in the GEM model forecast. Certainly this was a region where several critical ingredients of severe storm formation came together. An upper trough, produced a surface low in the lee of the Rocky Mtns, and brought together a cool northerly airmass and a warm, moist southerly airmass in a region of strong surface convergence over Calgary. The results were severe hailstorms, with funnel clouds reported near Pridis, Olds, and SE of Red Deer. A tornado was reported near Pine Lake. According to public reports, the tornado touched down briefly but caused no damage. The storms near Olds and SE of Red Deer on this day were not seeded. Tennis ball size hail was reported near Milo (outside the project, east of High River and South of Cluny).
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Figure 46: Map of surface streamlines and equivalent potential temperature (Theta-E) at 12 pm (18Z) on July 9th, 2006.
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Figure 47: Surface moisture-flux divergence and wind gust map at 18Z (12 pm) on July 9th, 2006.
Figure 48: Water vapor satellite image at 3 pm (21Z 9 July 2006).

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Figure 49: Water vapor satellite image at 5 pm (23Z 9 July 2006).
Seeding Operations
HS1 was launched at 1934Z in response to a 12 km top cell that popped up suddenly NW of Airdrie. This cell went up like a rocket, but only as a single bubble, and the max reflectivity of this cell was relatively low for such a tall cell and it was not a significant hail producer. Another cell then started developing W of Cochrane. At 1950Z Titan started tracking this cell (Storm #1). HS1 was airborne at 1953Z and climbed N of Airdrie to investigate the first cell and then proceeded to the second development W of Cochrane because the direction of movement was towards Calgary and thus more dangerous. At 2011Z HS1 began seeding storm #1 SW of Cochrane. Storm #1 tracked across Cochrane towards Calgary and produced reports of 2.2 cm hail in Tuscany (NW Calgary), and 2.5 cm hail near Nose Hill Dr and marble size in Dalhousie. Secondary cell development occurred over S Calgary producing reports of 2.5 cm hail near Chinook Mall and marble size in Pump Hill. Storm #1 had a maximum TITAN cell top height of 13.5 km, maximum reflectivity of 52 dBZ, and a max vertical2 2 integrated-liquid (VIL) of 13.9 kg/m . The cell near Chinook Mall had a max VIL of 11.2 kg/m , which generally would indicate hail of 1 to 2 cm, therefore, the 2.5 cm hail report was rather surprising. HS2 was launched at 2036Z to seed Storm #1 at cloud base. At 2052Z, HS2 was airborne and at 2057Z started seeding storm #1 at cloud base over NW Calgary. HS2 seeded Storm #1 continuously over W Calgary and later seeded Storm #2 at cloud base over S Calgary as it tracked towards Strathmore. At 2331Z HS2 stopped seeding and returned to base. HS3 was launched to the Cremona area at 2108Z as back-up to HS1. At 2120Z, HS3 was airborne and at 2149Z was in position at cloud top W of Bragg Creek. At 2158Z, HS1 descended to 12 kft, out of ejectable flares and continued seeding using BIP flares. When HS1 descended, HS3 then started seeding storm #2 at 2157Z, at cloud top. At 2230Z HS1 stopped seeding because they were completely out of flares and retuned to base. At this time, HS3 was seeding at cloud top in their place. At 2302Z, HS3 stopped seeding storm #2, headed west to new
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development, and at 2312Z started seeding storm #3 near Turner Valley and Black Diamond but a short time later HS3 stopped seeding storm #3 at 2332Z and returned to storm #2 to resume seeding at 2340Z because it threatened SE Calgary. At 2359Z HS3 stopped seeding storm #2 over Strathmore. HS3 patrolled near Okotoks for a while and then started seeding new development W of Okotoks heading for SE Calgary (Storm #4) at 0006Z. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #4 at 0024Z as the storm decayed rapidly after traveling over a previous hail/rain swath. HS3 patrolled W of Calgary and then RTB at 0043Z. The Storm #2 had formed near Pridis (W of Okotoks) and tracked E, just south of the Calgary city border. This storm passed N of Okotoks but there were reports of 5 cm hail from Heritage Pointe, located just south of Calgary City limits and Hwy 22X. This was the most severe storm of the day. Golfball hail was also reported at Dewinton from this cell. Storm #2 reached a maximum cell top of 15.5 km, maximum reflectivity of 54 dBZ, and a max VIL of 17.8 kg/m2. Storm #3 formed W of Turner Valley - Black Diamond and tracked towards Calgary before dying over the earlier storms hail swath. Storm #3 reached a maximum cell top of 11.5 km, maximum reflectivity of 50 dBZ, and a max VIL of 11.0 kg/m2. Storm #4 formed just SE of Calgary City limits and tracked towards Strathmore. This storm exhibited explosive growth after it left the project area, and produced tennis ball size hail near Cluny. Storm #4 reached a maximum cell top of 13.5 km, maximum reflectivity of 52 dBZ, and a max VIL of 16.0 kg/m2 within the project area. A series of plots of composite radar reflectivity, showing the aircraft seeding tracks and numerous th hailstorms over Calgary on July 9 , are shown in Figure 50. The max reflectivity and max VIL maps, superimposed over the City of Calgary are shown in Figure 51. These figures show the complicated nature of hailstorms, and the challenge faced by meteorologists and pilots to seed the most dangerous storms at the right place and the right time.
Figure 50: Time sequence of radar composite reflectivity displays and aircraft tracks over Calgary on July 9th, 2006. Hailstorms are identified with blue circles and their forecast tracks in 10 min intervals are shown with red circles. The storm cells are annotated with their top heights in km. The aircraft seeding tracks are shown as green, white, or blue lines.
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Figure 51: Maximum reflectivity map (top right), maximum vertical-integrated-liquid (VIL) shown in top right and lower left panels, and aircraft tracks (lower right) for July 9th 2006. VIL shades of green are generally indicative of hail >1 cm diameter at the surface (graphic courtesy J. Renick).
Conclusion
The Calgary storms on July 9th, 2006 were seeded extensively by Hailstop 1 and Hailstop 3 at cloud-top and Hailstop 1 and 2 at cloud-base for the full duration of their tracks across Calgary. One thing we have learned is that it is very important to seed continuously at top and base while the storm is over the City. The maximum reflectivity and max VIL maps indicate that the seeded storms over Calgary were less severe than non-seeded storms outside of Calgary. This represents a case that is consistent with our seeding objectives to reduce the intensity of storms over Calgary. The seeded storms on this day produced smaller hail than the non-seeded storms of comparable height and intensity.
7 July 2006 Case Study
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Figure 52: Maximum radar reflectivity map at 2231Z (top), 2358Z (middle), and max VIL map at 0021Z (bottom) on July 7, 2006.
A very long-lived hailstorm developed along the foothills northwest of Rocky Mountain House (RM) around 2030Z, outside the north buffer zone on July 7, 2006. It moved into the buffer zone at 2154Z, north of Rocky. The storm tracked across the project area in a southeast direction, finally exiting the project area around 01Z, southwest of Stettler. The integrated maximum reflectivity map at 2231Z, 2358Z, and maximum VIL map at 0021Z are shown in Figure 52. The storm achieved a maximum cell top height of 10.5 km, 52.5 dBZ maximum reflectivity, and 13.7 kg/m2 max VIL. Hailstop 3 (HS3) was launched at 2207Z to the storm when it was located in the buffer zone N of Eckville and heading for Lacombe. The flight track of HS3 is shown in Figure 53. HS3 was airborne at 2220Z and climbed to cloud top and began seeding Storm #1 at 2232Z when the storm was located 25 mi NW of Lacombe. Environment Canada reported quarter size hail (25mm) from this storm. The storm continued on a right-moving track, and crossed the QEII highway at 2340Z, passing just south of Lacombe. HS3 stopped seeding at 2346Z as the storm cleared Lacombe, heading towards Stettler.
Figure 53: Flight track of Hailstop 3 on July 7, 2006.
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Pilot Report (by Joel Zimmer)

Hailstop 3 took off at 22:18Z on July 7, 2006, and headed for a storm in the north buffer zone, west of Rimbey. At an altitude of 17,000 ft. ASL and -15'C outside air temperature (OAT) the feeder clouds were visible on the West and Northwest side of the cell. The cell was moving in a East-South East direction. HS3 began seeding on the initial pass at 22:31z. As a habit I increase the rate of ejectable (EJ) flare ignition on the first pass while burning a BIP flare at the same time. Once the first pass through the cell is complete I slow the rate of EJ flare ignition and only release flares while experiencing high rates of liquid water forming as clear ice on the windscreen combined with updrafts felt as a bump in turbulence. This updraft is usually greater than 500 feet per minute (fpm) shown on the aircraft vertical speed indicator (VSI). The rate of flare ignition from the first pass to the remaining passes may decrease from 10% to 60% unless the cell regains intensity. Our onboard weather radar is an older generation unit, which displays two colors. The color green represents high concentrations of ice crystals and liquid water content in the atmosphere with clear air represented as black. The inner core of the cell will flash black to green displaying the most intense regions of the cell. This warns the pilot not to enter that region of the cell on WxA mode. We, as pilots, make a habit not to fly through the flashing regions on the weather radar screen unless the flashing areas are small in size and not continuous. We encountered excellent liquid water at all altitudes while penetrating feeder clouds on the west side of the cell. Clear icing on the aircraft is a great reference for flare ignition, while rime icing on the forward windshield is usually a sign we have completed the pass and clear air generally appears within seconds later. No lightning was observed for the entire seeding mission. At cloud base which was an altitude of 8,000 ft ASL to 9,000 ft ASL. No lighting was observed at cloud base. Pass #1) CLOUD TOP: Time: 22:31z, Latitude: 52:58:65, Longitude: 114:26:95, Pass Direction: N to S, Altitude: 17,000 ft ASL, Flares: 18 EJ, 1 BIP, Temperature: -15'C OAT. Observations: High liquid water content and updrafts observed in feeder clouds. Rime ice at end of pass. Downdrafts were at the beginning of the pass on the SW side of cell. Pass #2) Time: 22:34z, Latitude: 52:55:79, Longitude: 114:26:95, Pass Direction: S to N, Altitude: 16,000 ft ASL, Flares: 15 EJ, 1 BIP, Temperature: -15'C OAT. Observations: None. Pass #3) Time: 22:38z, Latitude: 52:50:21, Longitude: 114:43:36, Pass Direction: N to S, Altitude: 16,000 ft ASL, Flares: 15 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: Graupel occurred on pass 3 due to extending the pass too far North which put the aircraft under blow-off from higher altitudes. Pass #4) Time: 22:41z, Latitude: 52:60:77, Longitude: 114:43:91, Pass Direction: S to N, Altitude: 17,000 ft ASL, Flares: 8 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: Cell reported by Olds-Didsbury Radar as 6.5km top and decreasing in height. Pass #5) Time: 22:44z, Latitude: 52:48:51, Longitude: 114:35:75, Pass Direction: N to S, Altitude: 17,000 ft ASL, Flares: 10 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: None. Pass #6) Time: 22:48z, Latitude: 52:57:50, Longitude: 114:30:93, Pass Direction: S to N, Altitude: 17,500 ft ASL, Flares: 9 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: None. Pass #7) Time: 22:51z, Latitude: 52:48:52, Longitude: 114:32:15, Pass Direction: N to S, Altitude: 17,500 ft ASL, Flares: 12 EJ, No BIP, Observations: None. Pass #8) Time: 22:55z, Latitude: 52:55:26, Longitude: 114:23:55, Pass Direction: S to N, Altitude: 18,000 ft ASL, Flares: 10 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: None. Pass #9) Time: 23:01z, Latitude: 52:48:44, Longitude: 114:23:55, Pass Direction: N to S, Altitude: 17,500 ft ASL, Flares: 16 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: Stronger updrafts, more liquid water content. At this time we started seeding new forming feeder clouds on the West-South West side of the cell. Visually they were better targets. The turbulence was increasing in intensity.
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Pass #10) Time: 23:02z, Latitude: 52:51:93, Longitude: 114:23:40, Pass Direction: S to N, Altitude: 17,500 ft ASL, Flares: 9 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: Our aircraft was carrying a lot of ice at this time. The ice was clear ice. We were experiencing buffeting from a tail stall during banks greater than thirty degrees. The airspeed was approaching 120 knots indicated with maximum power to the turbine engines. The decision was made to descend in order to melt the ice off the airframe in positive temperatures. Seeding continued in the descent and I increased the rate of ejectable flare ignition on the descent to ensure the cell was properly seeded and the chemical flowing into the cell continued until we transferred to a cloud base seeding role. Pass #11) Time: 23:05z, Latitude: 52:41:91, Longitude: 114:14:16, Pass Direction: N to S, Altitude: 17,500 ft ASL and descending, Flares: 23 EJ, 1 BIP, Observations: Good feeder clouds with a high liquid water content and strong turbulence associated with the descent. We encountered clear descending through the West-South West side of the cell at 10,000 ft ASL. Cloud base seeding passes began on the West-South West side of the cell and feeders were visually appearing on the West-South West side rather than the West-North West side of the cell. Cloud base seeding passes were flown around the South side of the cell directly under the outside edge of the shelf cloud. This was a good visual area for cloud formation. The area of inflow was excellent visually, and lifting was evident. Newly forming cloud had little to no rotation at lower levels. Passes were conducted in West-South West to East-North East directions. Blow-off on the anvil appeared to travel in the East-North East direction. Pass #12) CLOUD BASE: Time: 23:12z, Latitude: 52:48:83, Longitude: 114:15:27, Pass Direction: W to E, Altitude: 10,000 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: Base seeding altitude was dynamic. The aircraft was flown in a block altitude from 7,000 ft ASL to 9,000 ft ASL at the end of the first base seeding pass. This was to ensure we flew in clear air and followed a track directly ahead of the leading edge of precipitation at the front of the cell. Inflow was equal to or greater than 500 feet per minute (fpm) on the VSI guage. (Inflow = > 500 fpm). Pass #13) Time: 23:17z, Latitude: 52:43:40, Longitude: 114:10:42, Pass Direction: E to W, Altitude: 8,400 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: At this time the inflow increased due to us maneuvering the aircraft around to find better updrafts from that of the first base seeding pass. Vectors for inflow were assigned to our aircraft from the Olds-Didsbury Radar facility. The maximum inflow encountered was 2000 fpm at cloud base. The aircraft maneuvered again to find inflow lower than 2000 fpm but greater than 500 fpm. (>500fpm::aircraft::<2000fpm). This appeared to be a prime seeding area for cell inflow. Pass #14) Time: 23:21z, Latitude: 52:38:69, Longitude: 113:86:70, Pass Direction: W to E, Altitude: 8,400 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: On this pass it was advised to continue the pass further to the East-North East in order to find more inflow. Hail Stop 3 did encounter good inflow to the East-North East side of the cell until we were in clear air. We continued longer passes for the duration of the mission at cloud base. Pass #15) Time: 23:28z, Latitude: 52:38:50, Longitude: 113:95:61, Pass Direction: E to W, Altitude: 8,500 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: None. Pass #16) Time: 23:33z, Latitude: 52:35:23, Longitude: 113:95:61, Pass Direction: W to E, Altitude: 8,400 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: On this I was given control to fly the aircraft and the Captain began recording telemetry and flare data. We were cleared to remain in the block altitude from 7,000 ft ASL to 9,000 ft ASL. My altitude patterns for the pass were erratic due to the fact I was flying the aircraft directly under the newly forming cloud on the South side of the cell for better inflow. Cloud base was lower on the West side of the cell. Pass #17) Time: 23:38z, Latitude: 52:35:35, Longitude: 113:81:21, Pass Direction: E to W, Altitude: 8,400 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: The cell core was now reported East of the Queen Elizabeth II Highway. Pass #18) Time: 23:42z, Latitude: 52:35:21, Longitude: 113:70:99, Pass Direction: W to E, Altitude: 8,200 ft ASL, Flares: 1 BIP, Observations: Cloud base was lowering.
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At 23:46z HS3 was directed to stop seeding as the cell core was East of Red Deer and no longer posed a threat. Lightning was not observed until HS3 was in a patrol configuration and the cell was over the town of Joffre, AB. In total 18 seeding passes were conducted through the cell. 11 passes were conducted as top seeding passes through feeder clouds and 7 passes were conducted as cloud base seeding passes. 137 ejectable flares were attempted and 135 fired; 2 were duds. 18 Burn-in-place flares were attempted and 13 fired; 5 were duds. During top seeding passes through feeder cells we experience light, moderate and occasional severe turbulence. Severe turbulence was encountered during transitions from rime icing to clear icing indicating we were beginning to fly through another feeder cloud. During top seeding passes we were IMC (no visual references), unless we were ending a seeding pass and turning to start another pass. The flight during the top-seeding portion was mainly moderate turbulence because we only encountered momentary periods of control loss. During top seeding passes it was interesting to note the portions of cloud we had flown through were glaciating visually and sometimes our passes cut alleys through the new growth on the West side of the cell. At 00:15, HS3 was cleared to return to Red Deer, AB to land. The threat for further storm activity in the project area had diminished. It was very evident the cell had visually regained size and intensity once it was to the East of the project area.
Storm Track Analysis (by Dr. Andre Sinkevich)

The storm motion as predicted by the RAOB program, using the 12-hour ETA prognostic sounding for Red Deer on July 7, 2006 was from 313 degrees (from the northwest), with a speed of 11.3 m/s (22 kts). A total of 69 radar scans were analyzed over the lifetime of the storm. The track of the radar reflectivity centroid as defined by TITAN is shown in Figure 54. The time and position when seeding started (2231Z) and stopped (2346Z) is shown in Figure 54. The difference between the measured angle (a), and velocity (v) and the model predicted storm motion angle and velocity are shown in Table 16. Over the lifetime of the storm, the observed mean storm speed was 1.0 m/s greater than the speed predicted by RAOB. The observed storm motion angle was approximately 20 degrees less than the angle predicted. The standard deviations of the observations are 3.9 m/s and 16.8 deg respectively. Considering the deviations, the RAOB program did a good job at forecasting storm motion on this day.
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Table 16: Statistics of the difference between measured storm motion angle (a) and storm speed (V) and RAOB model (mod) predicted angle (amod) and speed (Vmod) over 69 radar scans. Valid N V-Vmod a-amod 69 69 Mean 1.0225 Median Minimum Maximum Std.Dev. 0.8134 -10.3123 12.89510 3.89201
16.8378 -51.0200 43.90000 19.6574 22.6700 3
Figure 54: The track of the radar reflectivity centroid as defined by TITAN on July 7, 2006.
Table 17: Statistics of the measured storm motion angle before seeding (Abs), during seeding (Ads), and after seeding (Aas), and measured storm speed before seeding (Vbs), during seeding (Vds), and after seeding (Vas). N is the number of radar scans. Valid N Abs Ads Aas Vbs Vds 19 17 33 19 17 Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std.Dev.
12.0448 285.445 283.660 261.9800 310.3100 6 3 0 19.2648 294.269 289.430 274.3000 354.2900 9 4 0 16.7548 297.412 294.760 269.1500 356.9000 1 1 0 10.9393 11.2464 12.7916 13.1475 0.9877 6.5416 16.0976 20.2555 3.14767 3.48354
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Vas
33
12.8772 12.5449
4.6273
24.1951
4.35637
The statistics of the measured storm motion angle before seeding (Abs), during seeding (Ads), and after seeding (Aas), and measured storm velocity before seeding (Vbs), during seeding (Vds), and after seeding (Vas) are given in Table 17. N is the number of radar scans. The storm motion became slightly more to the right (more southeasterly) during seeding and after seeding. The storm speed increased during seeding and after seeding. A time plot of the TITAN cell (40 dBZ contour) top height is shown in Figure 55. The seeding corresponds to a time when the cell top was mostly 7.5 km or lower. The cell top height was generally higher before and after seeding.
Scatterplot (chosen data 74v*71c) 10.5
9.5
8.5 Top (km)
7.5
6.5
5.5
Start
Stop
4.5 0 1632 3264 4896 6528 8160 T 9792 11424 13056 14688 16320 17952
Figure 55: Time plot of the TITAN cell top height (km) on July 7, 2006. The start and stop times of seeding are indicated. A time plot of the TITAN cell maximum reflectivity is shown in Figure 56. The seeding corresponds to a time when the maximum reflectivity was relatively lower. This can be seen qualitatively in the maximum reflectivity map in Figure 52. A time plot of the TITAN cell vertically integrated hail mass is shown in Figure 57. The seeding corresponds to a time when the vertically integrated hail mass was relatively lower. This can also be seen qualitatively in the maximum VIL map in Figure 52. This case study represents an example of what we like to see when we seed. On July 7, 2006 there was a very strong association between the time of seeding and a reduction in storm intensity as represented by storm top height, maximum reflectivity, and vertically integrated hail mass as defined by TITAN.
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Scatterplot (chosen data 74v*71c) Max dBZ (dBZ) = Spline
52.5 51.5 50.5 49.5 Max dBZ (dBZ) 48.5 47.5 46.5 45.0 44.0
Start
Stop
42.0 41.0 0 1632 3264 4896 6528 8160 T 9792 11424 13056 14688 16320 17952
Figure 56: Time plot of the TITAN cell maximum reflectivity on July 7, 2006. The seeding start and stop times are indicated.
Scatterplot (chosen data 74v*71c)
8.07941 6.95340 6.08372 Hail-Vihm kg/m2 5.06928 4.22069 3.28384 2.41190 1.60806
0.00000
Start
Stop
0 1632
3264 4896
6528 8160 T
9792 11424
13056 14688
16320 17952
Figure 57: Time plot of the TITAN cell vertically integrated hail mass (kg/m2) on July 7, 2006.
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CLIMATE PERSPECTIVES
The summer of 2006 in south-central Alberta was generally warm and dry. For the Canadian Prairies as a whole, the summer (June 1 to August 31, 2006) ranked as the 6th warmest (+1.3 C above average temperature), and the 5th driest (27.7% less than average precipitation) when compared with the 58year period 1948 to 2006. In comparison, 2005 was the 47th warmest and 2nd wettest summer. Therefore, 2006 was very different than 2005.
Precipitation at Calgary and Red Deer during the Summer of 2006

The daily and accumulated rainfall for Calgary and Red Deer from Sept. 21, 2005 to Sept. 21, 2006 are shown in Figures 58 and 59 respectively. Both Calgary and Red Deer received showers at the end of May and early June. These rains were sufficient to put Calgary above average for rainfall throughout July and mid-August. Calgary ended the summer with near normal rainfall, 13.9 mm above average by September 21, 2006. Red Deer was slightly below average. The early June rainfall brought Red Deer close to average, however, a dry period at the end of June and most of July caused Red Deer to fall below average until rain showers returned in early August and mid-September. By September 21, 2006 Red Deer was 0.3 mm below average but had received more rainfall than Calgary (454.3 mm in Red Deer versus 399.9 mm in Calgary).
Figure 58: Daily and accumulated rainfall for Calgary from Sept. 21, 2005 to Sept. 21, 2006.
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Figure 59: Daily and accumulated rainfall for Red Deer from Sept. 21, 2005 to Sept. 21, 2006.
Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies in Canada during the Summer of 2006

Regions with departures from normal precipitation during the summer of 2006 are shown in Figure 60. Regions with departures from normal temperature during the summer of 2006 are shown in Figure 61. Most of British Columbia and central and southern Alberta had below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. The foothills region near Calgary had near normal temperature and rainfall.
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Figure 60: Departures from normal Precipitation during the summer of 2006 in Canada.
Figure 61: Departures from normal Temperature during the summer of 2006 in Canada.
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El Nino
Beginning in February 2006, the equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content increased, and since April 2006 positive temperature anomalies have been observed. In monitoring the equatorial tropical Pacific for the phases of the ENSO cycle, the area has been divided into 4 sections: Nio 1+2 (0o-10o South) (90o West-80o West) Nio 3 (5 North-5 South) (150 West-90 West) Nio 4 (5 North-5 South) (160 East-150 West) Nio 3.4 (5 North-5 South) (170-120 West)
The Sea Surface Temerature (SST) anomalies for the 4 Nino regions of the equatorial tropical Pacific over the period November 2005 to October 2006 are shown in Figure 62. The geographic distribution of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies for the period November 2005 to October 2006 are shown in Figure 63. Since early July weaker-than-average low-level equatorial easterly winds have been observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. In September the Southern Oscillation Index was negative for the fifth consecutive month. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with the early stages of El Nio in the tropical Pacific. Over the past several months most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts have forecast warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The latest NCEP coupled forecast system predictions indicate El Nio conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the northern spring 2007. Typical El Nio effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season, including warmer-thanaverage temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States, wetter-than-average conditions over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and drier-thanaverage conditions in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.
Figure 62: Sea Surface Temerature (SST) anomalies for the 4 Nino regions of the equatorial tropical Pacific over the period November 2005 to October 2006.
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Figure 63: Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies for the period November 2005 to October 2006.
PROVINCIAL CROP HAIL INSURANCE RESULTS

Figure 64 shows the annual Loss-to-Risk ratios, percentage of claims, and difference between premiums collected and damage claims paid (losses up to and including the latest report dated 5-Oct2006) for the entire province of Alberta. The average loss-to-risk for the period 1978-1995 is 4.4%; 1986-1995 is 4.1%; and 1996-2006 is 3.8%. These average values are also shown in the figure. These results are not completely final at the time of this report due to some possible outstanding claims for a few storms during September; however, these data are thought to be quite accurate.
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Figure 64: Alberta Agriculture Financial Services Corp hail insurance loss-to-risk and claims statistics from 1978 to 2006. Eight of the last 11 years have loss-to-risk values below the previous 10-year average. The 2006 hail season loss-to-risk was 4.4%. This is 7.3% above the 1986-1995 average. The last 11 years of the Alberta Hail Project have 7% less hail damage than the previous 10 years, and 12% less hail damage than the previous 18 years. These differences are not statistically significant and could be due to chance and natural variability. Although there is a positive association between the WMI cloud seeding period and lower Provincial hail damage, there seems to be a trend towards increasing hail damage over the last 7 years, and the overall differences between the seeded years and previous non-seeded years is decreasing. The AFSC has recently provided hail damage data according to municipality, for the period since 1981. This has allowed a detailed analysis of hail within the project target area compared with regions outside the project area. For the purpose of this analysis, the project Target area consists of the Municipal Districts of Red Deer, Mountain View, Rocky View, Foothills, and Lacombe. The loss-to-risk ratio for the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) is 6.5% compared with the seeding period (1996 to 2006) of 7.06%. The frequency distributions of loss-to-risk ratio for the Target area before seeding and after seeding are shown in Figure 65. The mean loss-to-risk ratio for the seeded period is 8.6% higher than the previous 15-year period, but the difference is not statistically significant; therefore, one must conclude that there is no significant difference.
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Figure 65: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006). The Downwind area consists of the Municipal Districts of Acadia, Badlands, Kneehill, Newell, Paintearth, Provost, Special Area 2, Special Area 3, Special Area 4, Wheatland, Vulcan, Starland, and Stettler. The loss-to-risk ratio for the Downwind area before seeding (1981-1995) is 4.51% compared with the seeding period (1996 to 2006) of 4.46%. The frequency distributions of loss-to-risk ratio for the Downwind area before seeding and after seeding are shown in Figure 66. The mean loss-to-risk ratio for the seeded period is 1.2% lower than the previous 15-year period, but once again the difference is not statistically significant.
Figure 66: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the municipalities Downwind of the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006).
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The North region consists of the municipalities of Athabasca, Barhead, Beaver, Big lakes, Birch Hills, Bonnyville, Brazeau, Camrose, Clear Hills, East Peace, Edmonton, Fairview, Flagstaff, Grande Prairie, Greenview, Lac St Anne, Lamont, Leduc, Lesser Slave Lake, Mackenzie, Minburn, Northern Lights, Parkland, Peace, Ponoka, Saddle Hills, Smokey Lake, Smokey River, Spirit River, St Paul, Strathcona, Sturgeon, Thorhild, Two Hills, Vermillion, Wainwright, Westlock, Wetaskiwin, Woodlands, and Yellowhead. The loss-to-risk ratio for the Northern area before seeding (1981-1995) is 3.29% compared with the seeding period (1996 to 2006) of 3.57%. The frequency distributions of loss-to-risk ratio for the Northern area before seeding and after seeding are shown in Figure 67. The mean lossto-risk ratio for the seeded period is 8.4% higher than the previous 15-year period, but the difference is not statistically significant.
Figure 67: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the municipalities North of the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006).
The South region consists of the municipalities of Cardston, Cyprus, Forty Mile, Lethbridge, Pincher Creek, Taber, Warner, and Willow Creek. The loss-to-risk ratio for the Sorthern area before seeding (1981-1995) is 3.32% compared with the seeding period (1996 to 2006) of 2.45%. The frequency distributions of loss-to-risk ratio for the Southern area before seeding and after seeding are shown in Figure 68. The mean loss-to-risk ratio for the seeded period is 26.1% lower than the previous 15-year period. Although, the difference is still not statistically significant, this represents a strong association. Since seeding is not thought to possibly affect the hailstorms south of the target area, one must conclude that other influences such as climate change, global warming, or changes in farming practices are responsible for this reduction. This analysis, however, does suggest that the Provincial reduction in hail damage is due to the reduction in hail damage in the south.
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Figure 68: The frequency distribution of loss-to-risk ratio for the municipalities South of the Target area before seeding (1981-1995) versus the seeding period (1996 to 2006).
The regional Loss-to-Risk ratios are summarized in Table 18. The greatest hail damage is in the project Target area, thus the name Hail Alley remains relevant. These results also indicate that the threat or risk to agriculture and property has not diminished significantly over the last 25 years. Table 18: Regional Loss-to-Risk ratios. Mean Loss-to-Risk Ratios 19811996Seed/No1995 2006 Seed Area No-Seed Seed Ratio Target 6.50% 7.06% 108.6% Downwin d 4.51% 4.46% 98.8% North 3.29% 3.57% 108.4% South 3.32% 2.45% 73.9% The loss-to-risk ratio and quadratic trend line for the Target area for the period 1981-2006 are shown in Figure 69. The trend analysis indicates an increasing trend of loss-to-risk ratio for the past 15 years, and a continuing increase for the next five years. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD) are shown in the figure. There is large year-to-year variability, and the MAPE is 50%, however, the fact that the trend is increasing seems clear.
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Figure 69: Trend analysis for the period 1981 to 2006 for the Loss-to-Risk ratio for the Target area.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A formal evaluation of the hail suppression program is still not possible without receiving more comprehensive, detailed, high resolution property insurance claim data. Preliminary assessments using the available, published data show a reduction in urban and Provincial agricultural losses after eleven years, and there appears to be no doubt that the program has been a financial success. The evidence has been consistently positive, however, the crop-damage data according to municipality does not indicate a reduction in hail for the target area. Rather, the greatest reduction in hail damage has occurred south of Calgary and, therefore, is a result of external forces such as climate change or natural year-to-year variability. Furthermore, there seems to be a trend towards increasing hail within the target area and north over the past few years, and this is expected to continue into the near future. The fact that the crop damage data does not show a reduction in crop damage within the target area is not surprising since not all hailstorms are seeded. Many hailstorms go unseeded if they do not threaten a town or city. Furthermore, small hail may cause significant crop damage without causing property damage; therefore, it is not directly correlated to property damage but only an indication of the overall threat. The target area was enlarged slightly to the east this year in order to include a few more towns, especially those east of Calgary. This had a slight effect in increased flight hours and increased flare usage but was not a major change. There are no reasons to change the scientific seeding hypotheses, methodologies, or design of the program based on our experiences and results of the past 11 years. The Alberta Hail Suppression Project continues to be a model operational program, using cloud seeding as a viable technology for reducing the economic impact of hailstorms. The 2006 field operations ran very smoothly and, once again, there are no major recommendations for program improvements or upgrades. The following few recommendations are presented for consideration by the ASWMS and WMI senior management next year. There continues to be a need for more detailed property damage insurance data. The Insurance Bureau of Canada has been contacted in an attempt to gather the most recent and detailed property damage data so that a detailed evaluation about the financial effectiveness of the program can be conducted in the future. Alternatively, claims managers from the largest insurance
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companies should be contacted to request damage data that could be used for evaluation purposes. The number and frequency of severe storms seems to be increasing. On several instances over the last few years, there have been storms that have caused significant damage in small towns (e.g. Langdon, Springbrook, and Olds) and these storms were not being seeded at the time, or seeded by only one aircraft because all the project aircraft were seeding other storms over higher-priority places. The cost versus potential benefit of adding a fourth seeding aircraft should be investigated. A fourth aircraft may become more important if the trend towards greater hail damage continues. The Alberta program has experienced meteorologists and pilots, and a well-established project design and methodology. Therefore, this is a good opportunity to use Alberta as a training facility for new WMI staff so that they can be trained to work on other projects in the future. The TITAN computer system needs some more programming changes in order to improve the network file transfers and reduce the number of missing radar images sent to the Fargo web server. Another approach for program evaluation is the measurement of physical responses to the seeding. A physical assessment of the seeding effects may be possible using upgraded weather radar incorporating Doppler and polarization parameters. Improvements in electronics have reduced the price of these radar upgrades significantly over the last few years. Upgraded, multi-parameter radar for evaluation purposes may become more important if the trend towards greater hail damage continues, and the need to evaluate the cloud seeding becomes more important. A physical assessment could be considered as both an alternative and complimentary method to support an economic program assessment.
T. W. Krauss October 2006
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REFERENCES AND RECOMMENDED READING

Abshaev, M. T., 1999: Evolution of seeded and non seeded hailstorms. Proc. Seventh WMO Scientific Conf. On Wea. Modification. WMP Report No. 31, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 407-410. Alberta Research Council, 1985: Atmospheric Sciences - Field Program 1985. R. Deibert (editor), Alberta Research Council, Edmonton, 70pp. Alberta Research Council, 1986: Weather Modification in Alberta: Research and Operations 1980-85. ARC report, Edmonton. 18pp. Amburn S. and P. Wolf, 1997: VIL Density as a Hail Indicator. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 473-478. Barge, B.L., and F. Bergwall, 1976: Fine scale structure of convective storms associated with hail production. Rep. 76-2 (2 Vols.), Atmos. Sci. Div., Alberta Research Council, Edmonton. Battan, L. J., 1973: Radar Observation of the Atmosphere. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 324 pp. [Reprinted by: TechBooks, 2600 Seskey Glen Court, Herndon, VA 22071] Bennett, S.P., 1990: A Summary of Weather Modification Activities Reported in the United States During 1989. US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, 23 pp. Benoit, R., J M. Desgagn, P. Pellerin, S. Pellerin, Y. Chartier, and S. Desjardins, 1997: The Canadian MC2: A semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit wideband atmospheric model suited for finescale process studies and simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2382-2415. Breidenbach, J.P., D.H. Kitzmiller, and R.E. Saffle, 1993: Joint relationships between severe local th storms occurrence and radar-derived and environmental variables. Preprints, 13 Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Vienna, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 588-591. Brimelow, J., 1999: The HAILCAST model in Alberta. M.Sc. Thesis, Univ. Alberta, Edmonton. Brimelow, J.C., and G.W. Reuter, 2001: A radar-based methodology for preparing a severe weather climatology in central Alberta. University of Alberta, 17 pp. Brimelow, J.C, G.W. Reuter, R. Goodson, and T.W. Krauss, 2006: Spatial Forecasts of Maximum Hail Size using Prognostic Model Soundings and HAILCAST, Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 21, No. 2, 206-219. Browning, K. A., 1977: The structure and mechanisms of hailstorms. Hail: A Review of Hail Science and Hail Suppression. Meteor. Monograph., 16, 38, 1-43. Charak, M.T., 1978: Preliminary Analysis of Reported Weather Modification Activities in the US for 1976 and 1977. J. Weather Modification, 10, 165. Charlton, R. B., B. M. Kachman, and L. Wojtiw, 1995: Urban hailstorms: A view from Alberta. Natural Hazards, 12, 29-75. Chisholm, A. J., 1970: Alberta hailstorms: A radar study and model. Ph.D. Thesis, McGill University, Montreal, 287pp. Chisholm, A. J., and J. H. Renick, 1972: The kinematics of multicell and supercell Alberta hailstorms, Alberta Hail Studies, 1972. Research Council of Alberta Rep. 72-2, 24-31. Cohard, J.-M. and J.-P. Pinty, 2000a: A comprehensive two-moment warm microphysical bulk scheme. I: Description and tests. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1815-1842. Cooper, W. A., and J. Marwitz, 1980: Winter storms over the San Juan mountains. Part III: Seeding potential. J. Appl. Met., 19, 942-949. DeMott, P.J., W.G. Finnegan and L.O. Grant, 1983: An application of chemical kinetic theory and methodology to characterize the ice nucleating properties of aerosols used in weather modification. J. Clim. Appl. Meteor., 22, 1190-1203. DeMott, P.J., 1987: Report to the Weather Modification Group on tests of the ice nucleating ability of aerosols produced from the TB-1 formulation AgI pyrotechnic. Dept. Atmos. Sci., Colorado State Univ., Report, Fort Collins, Co.11pp. DeMott, P.J., 1990: Report to INTERA Technologies Ltd. on Tests of the Ice Nucleating Ability of WMG TB-1 Formulation Pyrotechnics. Dept. Atmos. Sci., Colorado State Univ., Report, Fort Collins, Co. DeMott, P.J., 1995: Report to the Weather Modification Group on tests of the ice nucleating ability of aerosols produced from the WMG-1 formulation AgI pyrotechnic. Dept. Atmos. Sci., Colorado State Univ., Report, Fort Collins, Co.11pp. DeMott, P.J., 1999: Report to the Weather Modification Incorporated on tests of the ice nucleating ability of aerosols produced by new formulation pyrotechnics March 1999. Dept. Atmos. Sci., Colorado State Univ., Report, Fort Collins, Co.10pp. Dennis, A.S., 1980: Weather Modification by Cloud Seeding. Academic Press, New York. 267 pp.
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Dennis, A.S., C.A. Schock, and A. Koscielski, 1970: Characteristics of hailstorms of Western South Dakota. J. Appl. Meteor., 9, 127-135. Dixon, Michael, and Gerry Wiener, 1993: TITAN: Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting - A Radar-based Methodology. J. Atmos. and Oceanic Technol., 10, 6, 785-797. English, M., 1986: The testing of hail suppression hypotheses by the Alberta Hail Project. Preprints, 10th Conf. Weather Modification, Arlington, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72-76. English, M., and T.W. Krauss, 1986: Results from an Alberta hailstorm seeding experiment. Presented 1st Intl. Cloud Modeling Workshop/Conf., Isree, FRG, July 1985, 79-84. Environment Canada 1987. Climate Atlas of Canada, Map Series 3, Pressure, Humidity, Cloud, Visibility, and Days with Thunderstorms, Hail, Smoke and Haze, Fog, Freezing Precipitation, Blowing Snow, Frost, Snow on the Ground, Ministry of Supply and Services, Cat. No. EN5663:3-1986. Environment Canada El Nino website - http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/education/elnino/index_e.cfm Etkin, D., and S. E. Brun, 1999: A note on Canadas hail climatology: 1977-1993. Int. J. Climatol. 19: 13571373. Ferrier, B.S., 1994: A two-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme. Part I: Description. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 249-280. Ferrier, B.S., W.-K. Tau and J. Simpson, 1995: A double-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme. Part II: Simulations of convective storms in different large-scale environments and comparisons with other bulk parameterizations. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1001-1033. Foote, G. B., and C. A. Knight, 1979: Results of a randomized hail suppression experiment in northeast Colorado. Part I. Design and conduct of the experiment. J. Appl. Meteor., 18, 1526-1537. Foote, G.B., 1984: The study of hail growth utilizing observed storm conditions. J. Climate. Appl. Meteor.,23,84-101. Foote, G.B., 1985: Aspects of cumulonimbus classification relevant to the hail problem. J. Rech. Atmos., 19, 61--74. Foote, G.B., and J.C. Fankhauser, 1973: Airflow and moisture budget beneath a northeast Colorado hailstorm. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1330-1353. Foote, G.B., T.W. Krauss, and V. Makitov, 2005: Hail metrics using conventional radar. Proceedings: th 16 Conf. On Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston. Garvey, D.M., 1975: Testing of cloud seeding materials at the Cloud Simulation and Aerosol Laboratory, 1971-1973. J. Appl. Meteor., 14,883-890. Glossary of Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts, 1959. Grandia, K.L., D.S. Davison and J.H. Renick, 1979: On the dispersion of silver iodide in Alberta hailstorms. Proceedings: 7th Conf. on inadvertent and planned weather modification, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Banff.56-57. Harris, E.R., 1981: Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project: Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, 196 pp. Howell, W.E., 1977: Environmental impacts of precipitation management: Results and inferences from Project Skywater. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 58, 488-501. Humphries, R.G., M. English, and J. Renick, 1987: Weather Modification in Alberta., J. Weather Modification, 19, 13-24. Insurance Bureau of Canada, 2001: Facts of the General Insurance Industry of Canada. Insurance Bureau of Canada, Toronto. 44 pp. Kain, J.S., and J.M. Fritsch, 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteo. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165-170. Kitzmiller, D. H., and J. P. Breidenbach, 1995: Detection of Severe Local Storm Phenomena by Automated Interpretation of Radar and Storm Environment, Techniques Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TDL 82. (33 pages) Kitzmiller, D.H., W.E. McGovern, and R.E Saffle, 1995: The WSR-88D severe weather algorithm. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 141-159. Kong, F. and M.K. Yau, 1997: An explicit approach to microphysics in MC2. Atm. Ocean. 33, 257-291. Krauss, T.W. 1981. Precipitation Processes in the New Growth Zone of Alberta Hailstorms Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, 296 pp. Krauss, T.W., 1989: An assessment of seeding rate. Greek National Hail Suppression Program 1988 Annual Report. Edited by Rudolph et al., INTERA Report M88-490, Calgary, 5.2 to 5.4. Krauss, T.W., 1998: Radar responses to seeding of hailstorms in Alberta. 14th Conf. Wea. Mod., AMS, Everett, WA, 632-635.
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Krauss, T.W., R.T. Bruintjes, and H. Martinez, 2000: A new hail suppression project using aircraft seeding in Argentina. J. Weather Mod., Vol. 32, 1, 73 - 80. Krauss, T.W., and J.D. Marwitz, 1984: Precipitation processes within an Alberta supercell hailstorm. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1025-1034. Krauss, T.W. and V. Makitov, 2001: An overview of the Mendoza hail suppression program 2000. Proceedings, 15th Conf. Inadvertent and Planned Weather Modification, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Albuquerque, New Mexico. Krauss, T. W., and J. Renick, 1997: The new Alberta hail suppression project. J. Weather Mod., Vol. 29, 1, 100 - 105. Krauss, T.W., R.E. Rinehart, J.L. Kollegger, and S.A. Kozak, 1998: VIL as a predictor for hail in Alberta. Preprints, 14th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification, Everett, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 589-592. Krauss, T.W., and J.R. Santos, 2004: Exploratory analysis of the effect of hail suppression operations on precipitation in Alberta. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 71, 35-50. Krauss, T.W., W.Shaw, A.A.Sinkevich, V.S.Makitov, 2006: Cloud seeding in India and physical and statistical assessment of the results. Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology, Russia, V7, 24-33. Landscheidt, T., 1999: Solar activity a dominant factor in climate dynamics, http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/solar/solar.htm Landscheidt, T. 1999:Trends in pacific decadal oscillation subjected to solar forcing, http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/theodor/pdotrend.htm Landscheidt, T. 1999: Solar activity controls El Nino and La Nina, http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/sunenso/sun-enso.htm Makitov, V., 1999: Organization and main results of the hail suppression program in the northern area of the province of Mendoza, Argentina. J. Weather Modification, 31, 76-86. Marwitz, J.D., 1972a: The structure and motion of severe hailstorms. Part I: Supercell storms. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 166-179. Marwitz, J.D., 1972b: The structure and motion of severe hailstorms. Part II: Multicell storms. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 180-188. Marwitz, J.D., 1972c: The structure and motion of severe hailstorms. Part III: Severely sheared storms. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 166-179. Marwitz, J.D., 1972d: Precipitation efficiency of thunderstorms on the High Plains. J. Rech. Atmos., 6, 367-370. Mather, G. K., M. J. Dixon, J. M. DeJager, 1996: Assessing the potential for rain augmentation The Nelspruit randomized convective cloud seeding experiment. J. Appl. Meteor., 35, 1465-1482. Meyers, M.P., R.L. Walko, J.Y. Harrington and W.R. Cotton, 1997: New RAMS cloud microphysics. Part II: The two-moment scheme. Atmos. Res., 45, 3-39. Milbrandt, J.A. and M.K. Yau, 2003: Analysis of the role of the shape parameter in bulk microphysics parameterizations and a proposed triple-moment approach. Submitted to J. Atmos. Sci. Miller, R., 1972: Notes on Analysis and Severe-Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Air Weather Service Technical Report 200 (Rev), United States Air Force, Chapters 5 and 7. Mullayarov, V. A., V.I. Kozlov, and R.R. Karimov, 2001.:Relation of thunderstorm activity to cosmic ray variations. In: ISCS 2001 Abstracts. Solar Variability, Climate and Space Weather. NOAA PDO website - http://ww2.wrh.noaa.gov/climate_info/PDO_page.htm Ramanathan, V., B.R. Barkstrom, and E.F. Harrison, 1989: Climate and the earths radiation budge. Physics Today, 22. Rasmussen, E.N., and D. O. Blanchard, 1998: A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Weather and Forecasting, 13, 1148-1164. Renick, J., 1975: The Alberta Hail Project: Update 1975. J. of Weather Mod., 7, no. 2, 1-6. Rinehart, R. E., 1997: Radar for Meteorologists. 3rd Edition, Rinehart Publications, P.O. Box 6124, Grand Forks, ND. 58206-6124. 428 pp. Rosenfeld, D., W. Woodley, T.W. Krauss, V. Makitov, 2006: Aircraft Microphysical Documentations from Cloud Base to Anvils of Hailstorm Feeder Clouds in Argentina. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 45, No. 9, pp 12611281. Ross, C., and P. Woloshyn, 1986: Effect of Hail and Drought on Major Crops in Alberta. Alberta Agriculture Report. Edmonton. 34pp. Rudolph, R., and C. Ganniaris-Papageorgiou, 1991: Effects of cloud seeding on hail insurance statistics in northern Greece. Paper presented at the 2nd Conf. on Hail Suppression. Yugoslavia.
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Rudolph, R.C., C.M. Sachiw, and G.T. riley, 1994: Statistical evaluation of the 1984-88 seeding experiment in northern Greece. J. Weather Modification, 26, 53-60. Schnur, R., T. W. Krauss, F. Joe Eley, and D. Lettenmaier, 1997: Spatiotemporal analysis of radarestimated precipitation during the BOREAS Summer 1994 Field Campaigns. J. of Geophysical Research, vol. 102, D24, 29,417-29,427. Shabbar, A., 1997: El Nino. Environment Canadas web page. Downsview, Ont. Sheremata, D, 1998: Hail Busters: Shooting for the clouds. Canadian Geographic, Vol. 118, No. 5, 6670. Smith, P.L., L.R. Johnson, D.L. Priegnitz, B.A. Boe, and P.W. Mielke Jr., 1997: An exploratory analysis of crop hail insurance data for evidence of cloud seeding effects in North Dakota. J. Applied Meteor., 36, 463-473. Smith, P. L., and L. R. Lemon, 1997, Characteristics of Radar Echoes from Hailstorms. 31st CMOS Congress, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, pp 66. Stanley-Jones, M., 1996: Radar systems, Theoretical & Practical Measurement Procedures, unpublished manuscript, 112 pp. Strong, G. S., 1979: A convective forecast index as an aid in hail suppression evaluation. Proceedings, 7th Conf. Inadvertent and Planned Weather Modification, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Banff, 2pp. Strong, G. S., and W. D. Wilson, 1983: The Synoptic Index of Convection, Part I: Evaluation of the Single-Valued Index, 1978-82. 17th Annual CMOS Congress, Banff. Atmos. Sci. Dept., Alberta Research Council, Red Deer. 29-37. Summers, P. W., and L. Wojtiw, 1971: The economic impact of hail damage in Alberta, Canada and its dependence on various hailfall parameters. Preprints, Seventh Conf. of Severe Local Storms, Kansas City, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 158-163. Svensmark, H. & Friis-Christensen, E.: Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage a missing link in solarclimate relationships. J. Atm. Sol.Terr. Phys. 59 (1997), 1225. Terblanche, D. E., 1996: A simple digital signal processing method to simulate linear and quadratic responses from a radars logarithmic receiver. J. Atmos. And Oceanic Tech., 13, 533-538. University of Washington PDO website - http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/ Waldvogel, A., B. Federer, and P. Grimm, 1979: Criteria for the detection of hail cells. J. Appl. Meteor., 25, 1521-1525. Winston H. A., and L. J. Ruthi, 1986: Evaluation of RADAPII Severe Storm Detection Algorithms. AMS Bulletin, VOL 67, 145-150. Ziegler, C.L., 1985: Retrieval of thermal and microphysical variables in observed convective storms. Part 1: Model development and preliminary testing. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1497-1509.
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APPENDICES A. B. C. D. E. Organization Chart Daily Weather and Activities Summary Table Aircraft Operations Summary Table Flight Summary Table Forms Weather Forecast Worksheet WMI Radar Observer Log WMI Seeding Aircraft Flight Log F. G. H. I. J. K. L. Specifications for Piper Cheyenne II Aircraft Specifications for Cessna C-340 Aircraft Specifications for Beechcraft King-Air C90 Aircraft Ground School Agenda Airborne Seeding Solution Daily Meteorological Forecast Statistics Project Personnel and Telephone List
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A.
ORGANIZATION CHART
Alberta Severe Weather Management Society Ltd. Alberta Hail Suppression Project
BOARD OF DIRECTORS Dave Johnson, CHAIRMAN Catherine Jenssen Chief Financial Officer
PROJECT DIRECTOR JAMES RENICK
WEATHER MODIFICATION INC. PATRICK SWEENEY JAMES SWEENEY
PROJECT MANAGER DR. TERRY KRAUSS
Electronics Maintenance
Aircraft Maintenance
Flight Operations
Radar Meteorology
Harry Ewen
Gary Hillman
Hans Ahlness Craig Lee
Jason Goehring Andre Sinkevich Viktor Makitov
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B.
DAILY WEATHER AND ACTIVITIES SUMMARY TABLE 2006

ALBERTA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT 2006 DAILY SUMMARY REPORTS WEEK No.1 Weather Activities Summary HS1 was launched at 2007Z towards Sundre on a test flight. At 2118Z HS1 successfully fired an EJT Large Ridge over AB-SK border. Low pressure center west of VR Island. Jet core approaching west coast of flare. A BIP flare was also attempted but later it was determined that it did not light and burn. HS1 BC. Weak disturbances in the SW flow being returned to base (RTB) at 2132Z. deflected north of the project area by the ridge. The sounding is unstable but very dry in the lower levels. HS2 was launched at 2007Z towards Olds on a test Mostly sunny and warm with Chinook cloudiness in the flight at cloud base. At 2121Z HS2 successfully fired a BIP flare and also tested both acetone burners for morning and shallow, high-based CU, SC, and AC. 5 min each. HS2 was RTB at 2132Z. Some weak, convective echoes formed over the foothills west of RM in the afternoon, but dissipated as HS3 was launched around 2013Z towards RM on a they moved into the project area. No significant test flight. HS3 successfully fired a BIP flare at showers or deep convection was reported. 2125Z and also attempted an EJT flare but later it was determined that the EJT flare did not ignite. HS3 Tmax YC = 25.3 C and no rain. RTB at 2150Z. HS3 penetrated some weak Cu Tmax QF = 26.5 C and no rain. clouds but reported very high bases and little vertical Tmax Radar = 25.3 C and no rain. development. All three aircraft had trouble with the titan a/c tracks due to incorrect computer system time settings. The a/c computer times had to be adjusted by 1 hr to match UTC-GPS time. HS1: 2033-2205 UTC: 1 EJECT, 0 BIP: Test Flight HS2: 2023-2149 UTC: 0 EJECT, 1 BIP, 10 min Generator: Test Flight HS3: 2035-2203 UTC: 0 EJECT, 1 BIP: Test Flight
Date
June 1, Thursday
June 2, Friday
Weak N-S jet over central BC and second W-E stronger jet off OR coast. Upper low off BC coast. Ridge over central SK slowly drifted eastward, bringing SW flow over project. Weak PVA along foothill, but negative VV dominates. Sfc low in N AB with cold front moving to S. Atmosphere has a little instability. Showers moved over mtns from SW after 23Z, but dissipated before reaching project area. One SHRA developed along foothills 10 nm SW of TV-BD, and moved into project area before dissipating. Cu, Ac, Ci, and Sc clouds observed. Tmax YC = 26.4 C with no rain. Tmax QF = 27.7 C with no rain. Tmax Radar = 26.4 C with no rain.
HS2 was launched at 1925Z to Olds on a test flight. HS2 was on Airlink and TITAN at 1941Z and patrolled the project area from Olds, to Red Deer, to Sundre, to Turner Valley-Black Diamond, to High River and then RTB at 2049Z. The a/c track of HS2 was lost at 8 kft just north of High River. HS1 was launched at 1953Z to Sundre. HS1 conducted a successful BIP flare test at 2045Z over Sundre at 17 kft. HS1 then patrolled to Cremona, Cochrane and the RTB at 2107Z. HS3 was launched at 2005Z to RM. HS3 successfully tested one EJT flares from rack 2 and one EJT flare from rack 3 at 2047Z at 15 kft near RM. HS3 then patrolled to Lacombe, west of Ponoka, and then RTB at 2111Z. Public relations: T. Krauss interviewed by Olds radio station CKFM. HS2: 1936-2104 UTC: no seeding test flight. HS1: 2026-2115 UTC: 0 EJECT, 1 BIP: Test Flight HS3: 2023-2124 UTC: 2 EJECT, 0 BIP: Test Flight
June 3, Saturday
Sfc low northeast of the province. Weak jet NW of project area. PVA northeast of the area. Soundings unstable but low humidity between 700 and 400 mb
No aircraft operations
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prevented development of any strong convection. Cu med, weak Cu cong were observed in the area. Tmax YC = 21.0 C and no rain Tmax QF = 23.7 C and no rain Tmax Radar = 22 C and no rain. WEEK No.2 Weather Upper level Low-pressure center located over the N border of AB. A weak cold front moved to the E over SK. Jet PVA core located SW of BC and another weak core over N part of AB. Atmosphere (ATM) slightly unstable and more humid than in the previous days. Party cloudy and warm during the day and increasing cloudiness in the evening. Ci, Ac, Cu and Cu congestus in S of AB. Isolated rain showers and some weak echoes SE of Calgary. No significant showers or deep convection was observed in the project area. Tmax YC = 20.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 22.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 20.5 C and no rain. June 5, Monday Upper jet nosing into area during afternoon. Weak upper low along southern SK/MB border with surface low to SE and cold front to south in eastern Dakotas. Strongest Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) forcing to the N of project. Slight pos vertical velocities (VV). Atmosphere slightly unstable, more to the north. Short lived isolated SHRA in N buffer around 22Z. Titan cell NW of N buffer from ~00 to 01Z. SHRA in N half of project from 01 to 05Z, producing good storm outflow and virga. Max dBZ = 41, Max VIL= 3.1 kg/m2, Max TOP= 7 km Tmax YC = 23.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 24.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 22.4 C and no rain. June 6, Tuesday Upper jet over southern part of western Canada. High pressure dominating western US, giving nearly zonal flow over project and clockwise circulation. PVA streak to N of project. Low level pos VV from upslope flow. Little subsidence inversion at 500 mb. Atmosphere has little instability. -RA developed W of Cremona ~23Z, and spread across the central project until 06Z. Strongest echoes were just inside W buffer line. Few RA areas continued through early night hours. Max dBZ = 43.5, no VIL, max TOP= 6 km Tmax YC = 20.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 18.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 18.9 C and 0.5 mm rain. June 7, Wednesday Upper jet over central SK/ southern MB with tail just leaving eastern AB. 500 mb ridge building over area with axis just east of project through AB. Upper low off WA coast. No strong PVA in area, but good pos VV. Higher surface dew points moved into area during the day. Atmosphere unstable even with ridge HS3 was launched at 22:42Z towards RM on patrol. HS3 patrolled at 9 kft from RM to Sundre and then to Cochrane descending to 8.5 kft to stay below bases. HS3 then climbed to 12 kft S of Cochrane and reported clear skies above a SC deck with tops at 11.8 kft. HS3 reversed course at Turner Valley
Date June 4, Sunday
Activities Summary No aircraft operations
No aircraft operations.
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and mid level warming. Light RA moved into area from S around 00Z, spreading out and covering the area from Calgary and S by 03Z. More areas of RA overnight lasting into the morning hours. Max dBZ = 36, no VIL, max TOP= 6 km Tmax YC = 22.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 22.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 21.0 C and no rain. June 8, Thursday Jet over N SK through central MB and into Great Lakes region. Upper low slowly sliding eastward over WA state with trof through BC and ridge over SK. Strongest PVA to S and E of area. Slight pos VV today. Sfc low developing on lee side of mountains in N MT as trof approaches. Atmosphere mostly stable. Areas of RA in morning, becoming more widespread after 17Z, covering most of the project area through mid afternoon. Clearing began in the SW by 23Z, with the widespread RA out of the area by 05Z. Lingering areas of DZ overnight. Strongest echoes on the trailing edge of the RA from Carstairs to N of Innisfail. Max dBZ = 36, no VIL, max TOP= 6 km Tmax YC = 12.6 C and 14.2 mm rain. Tmax QF = 16.0 C and 17.6 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 15.8 C and 10.9 mm rain, wedge gauge at radar= 2.8 mm emptied Thursday morning + 17.5 mm emptied Friday morning June 9, Friday Upper jet streaming S along northern BC/AB border, and second jet wrapping around upper low in E WA state. PVA pushing up into area in front of low overnight. Mostly negative VV during the day and evening. Atmosphere remains mostly stable. Scattered areas of RA in morning. Very few radar echoes in afternoon, from light DZ or virga. Mostly cloudy with some areas of sunshine. TCU reported in YC, BW, and QF. Max dBZ = 22, no VIL, max TOP= 4 km Tmax YC = 15.0 C and 0.2 mm rain. Tmax QF = 13.2 C and 1.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 12.1 C and 0.3 mm rain wedge gauge at radar= 0.3 mm Saturday morning. June 10, Saturday N-S jet over NWT and northern BC/AB border. Upper low over NW SK with PVA streak to SW into NE project area. Low level positive VV. Atmosphere slightly unstable with surface warming. Sct CU and TCU during the day, with increasing cloudiness in the evening and sct RW- moving into the area from the N after midnight. Max dBZ = 41, no VIL, max TOP = 6 to 7 km Tmax YC = 15.6 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 17.9 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 16.1 C and 0.7 mm gauge, 0.5 mm tipping bucket (after midnight).
heading north and then RTB to QF at 2353Z. No hard growth was reported from the cloud mass entering the southern project border south of YC. HS3: 2255-0014Z: No seeding. Patrol.
HS2 was launched on a patrol-test flight from Calgary to Red Deer at 20Z. HS2 flew directly to QF from YC and reported cloud bases at 6 kft. HS2 landed in QF and delivered the new IFR NAV charts for HS3. HS2 returned to YC at 2230Z. No seeding was conducted. HS2: 2035-2110: No seeding. Patrol. HS2: 2237-0014: No seeding. Patrol.
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Date June 11, Sunday
WEEK No.3 Weather High-pressure centered over NW part of BC. Trough axis located across AB province from SW to NE. Jet PVA core over N pat of AB. Sounding unstable and sufficiently humid at the low level. Cloudy and rain during the whole day over the area. Radar echoes with the max reflectivity 47 dBZ and top 6.0-6.5 km. Some intense rains with rice size ice particles and lightning reported. Max dBZ = 47, max VIL= 3.5, no titan cell Tmax YC = 14.2 C, with 1.0 mm rain. Tmax QF = 14.9 C, with 8.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 13.1 C, with 1.8 mm rain.
Activities Summary HS1 was launched on a patrol flight at 1942Z. HS1 was on Airlink at 2009Z and headed towards Olds, climbing to 18kft to get above the SC deck and have a good look at the storm situation. HS1 reported above most clouds at 14 kft, with a few, glaciated Tcu with tops to 20 kft. HS1 patrolled the north project area from Olds to QF to RM and then to Sundre, before heading south to YBW (Springbank). At 2052Z, Craig Lee reported 2-3 mm hard snow pellets at the YC airport. Max reflectivity in the area was 40 dBZ with tops of 5 to 6 km. No TITAN cells were registered on the radar. At 2115Z, a reflectivity core of 47 dBZ was observed over YC, so HS1 descended to 16 kft (-11 C) for a penetration. HS1 reported supercooled liquid water (SLW) and, therefore, started seeding at 2120Z as a precaution. HS1 seeded with 4 BIP flares over SE Calgary and stopped seeding at 2147Z as the echo diminished in intensity. HS1 patrolled W of Calgary and reported all clouds decaying after reaching ~18 kft. HF1 returned to base (RTB) at 2201Z. HS1: 2005-2210 UTC: 4 BIP over SE Calgary.
June 12, Monday
High-pressure center located over N part of BC and AB provinces. Short wave ridge passing over the N part of area today. Jet PVA core over the area. Soundings for YC and QF are slightly unstable and humid on the low level. Cloud covered, St, Sc, Ns, AlCu and Cu. Weak echoes during the night. Drizzle is reported over Calgary city. Max dBZ = 21.5, no VIL, no titan cell Tmax YC = 14.2 C, Pr = trace. Tmax QF = 18.4 C, no rain. Tmax Radar = 15.8 C, no rain.
June 13, Tuesday
Low-pressure center located S of BC province. Trough axis moving to the area from SW. Main cores of the jet PVA are located S of BC and SE of SK. Soundings are unstable and humid. Overcast with Ac, Ci was observed during the day. Cloud band including Cu cong, Cb moved through the Calgary area overnight. Max dBZ = 52.5, max VIL= 17.6, Max cell top= 10.5 Tmax YC =17.6 C, Pr =0. Tmax QF =20.4 C, Pr =0 Tmax Radar =18.4 C, Pr =14mm
HS1 was launched at 0405Z. It started seeding with EJT flares at 0437Z and stopped seeding as clouds diminished at 0454Z. It was storm #1 at the south border of Calgary. He restarted seeding storm #2 at 0548Z near High River. He reported high LWC, turbulence, and updrafts. He stopped seeding at 0703Z as storms had diminished and passed Calgary. HS1 returned to base at 0730Z. Flight Summary HS1: 0432-0730 UTC: 103 EJT, south of Calgary and over Calgary.
June 14, Wednesday
Low-pressure center located over the south border of AB province. Trough axis remains located SW of the area. Jet PVA core is S of AB province. Both soundings are sufficiently unstable and humid. Light rain in N project in morning, with titan cell out of area N of Stettler from 19 to 20Z. The afternoon was mostly cloudy with Sc, Ac, and embedded TCU. TS over mountains moving NW from 21 to 03Z. Area of rainshowers began approaching from E after 23Z, but
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leading edge was dissipating and breaking up by 01Z. Widespread showers with lightning moved into area from E after 04Z and lasted through the night. Max dbz= 49, max VIL= 4.5, max cell top= 5.5 km Tmax YC =18.1 C with 20.8 mm rain, Tmax QF = 18.7 C, with 6.8 mm rain Tmax Radar = 18.4 C, with 10.7 mm, 19 mm in wedge gauge Thursday morning. June 15, Thursday Low-pressure center located over the border of AB and SK provinces, another Low NW of BC province. The lows are joined by a low-pressure trough, which is located over the area. Soundings are unstable and very humid. Cool, wet and windy conditions, with upslope flow most of the day produced widespread +RA along foothills until 01Z, with total rainfall amount over 40 mm SW of Sundre. First N-S line of SHRA moved into project from the E at 19Z, slowly moving west. Second line entered area around 23Z, and 3rd line around 01Z. Titan cells all afternoon in E buffer with lightning, but diminishing before reaching QE2. After 05Z, scattered RA overnight. Max dBZ = 53, max VIL= 12.5, max cell top= 6.5 km Tmax YC = 15.8 C with 32.6 mm rain, Tmax QF = 16.9 C, with 12.8 mm rain Tmax Radar = 14.4 C, with 20.8 mm, 17.5 mm in wedge gauge Friday morning. June 16, Friday Low-pressure center located over the S part of SK province. Cold front is moving from the N. Main core of the jet PVA is SW of the area. Both soundings are unstable and humid at the low levels. Good Cu growth reported over foothills beginning around 21Z. A line of SHRA formed in the west and moved E and out of area by 23Z. A second, more intense line of TSRA formed shortly after 23Z and moved towards the SE. Storm #1 formed 2344Z S of Sundre. Moved SE and diminished N of Cremona. Max top=7.5 km, 54 max dBZ, max VIL 12.5 kg/m2. Storm #2 formed over YC VOR around 00Z. The cell slowly drifted S with the complex moving SE and out of the area after 02Z. Pea size hail was reported in Langdon. Max top=9.5 km, 52 max dBZ, max VIL 13.4 kg/m2. Smaller cells developed just S of Calgary to S of Okotoks around 0020Z, moved E and merged with storm #2. Line of SHRA formed from Caroline to W Didsbury at 0130Z and lasted until 10Z. Storm #3 formed around 02Z W of Caroline, moved SE and diminished by 0318Z. Most intense cell of the day with dime size hail reported W of Sundre at 0310Z. Max top=8.5 km, 56 max dBZ, max VIL 19.8 kg/m2. Storm #4 formed SE of Sundre at 0250Z, moved SE and diminished at 0336Z. Max top=6.5 km, 50 max dBZ, max VIL 6.4 kg/m2. HS3 was launched for a patrol flight over Caroline at 2029Z. HS3 was airborne at 2043Z. HS3 reported good growing Cu along foothills with some graupel, updrafts and SLW. HS3 RTB at 2201Z. HS2 was launched at 2124Z to Sundre. HS2 was airborne at 2152Z and initially patrolled Sundre to Rocky. HS2 was directed to Storm #1 at 2344Z and started seeding at 0004Z S of Sundre at the 0 C level (11 kft). HS2 stopped seeding #1 at 0016Z as it had diminished and was directed to storm #2 (NE YC over the VOR). HS2 started seeding #2 at cloud base at 0034Z. HS2 stopped seeding at 0116Z and RTB. HS1 was launched at 0021Z to storm #2 over the YC VOR at cloud top. HS1 was airborne at 0050Z and started seeding storm #2 almost immediately. HS1 stopped seeding at 0152Z as the cell was leaving the area. HS1 RTB at 0159Z as no more cells developed in the S. HS3 was launched for a second flight at 0134Z to Sundre at cloud base. HS3 was airborne at 0153Z and patrolled on the N side of a line of SHRAs. HS3 was directed to Storm #3 at 0235Z and started seeding at 0246Z. HS3 stopped seeding #3 at 0301Z as the cell had diminished and started seeding Storm #4 at 0302Z. HS3 stopped seeding at 0318Z and RTB at 0343Z. Flight Summary HS3: 2042-2215: patrol Caroline, W Sundre. Tmax YC = 20.9 C with 7.4 mm rain,
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Tmax QF = 18.2 C, with 11 mm rain Tmax Radar = 17.3 C, with 11.2 mm, 8 mm in wedge gauge Saturday morning.
HS2: 2151-0126: 16 BIP, 66 min acetone generator time; Storms S Sundre, E Calgary. HS1: 0041-0208: 191 EJT, 7 BIP; Storm E Calgary. HS3: 0148-0356: 6 BIP; Storms NW Sundre, SE Sundre.
June 17, Saturday
Low-pressure center over east border of SK. Trough north of the area. Main Jet is located south of the area slightly influencing south part of the area. Second Jet northwest of the area. PVA at the south of the area and to the north-east. Both soundings are unstable, especially YC sounding, producing Cb development. SHRA began to form along foothills around 18Z, and slowly moved east with some titan cells. This first wave diminished shortly before 22Z. A second wave formed along the foothills about 22Z, and became more intense. Storm #1 was a group of cells that formed in the Cochrane area. It moved eastward and diminished to just a thundershower over Calgary. Springbank reported 4 mm hail at 2230Z. Max top=6.5 km, 58 max dBZ, max VIL 8.6 kg/m2. Also some thundershowers in the central project area with a little intense area over Olds from 0028 to 0051Z, and 1 cm hail reported by Andrey in Olds. RA continued in the S until 05Z. Tmax YC =19 C with 4.8 mm rain, Tmax QF = 19.6 C, with 0.4 mm rain Tmax Radar = 17.6C, with 2.8 mm, 3.0 mm in wedge gauge Sunday morning
HS2 was launched at 2132Z to Sundre at cloud base. HS2 was airborne at 2150Z. HS2 was directed to Storm #1 at 2155Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #1 at 2227Z just south of Springbank. HS2 stopped seeding at 2344Z, and patrolled to the SW of Calgary. HS2 RTB at 2353Z as there was no new development. Flight Summary HS2: 2149-0002: 3 BIP, 213 min acetone generator time; Storm Springbank.
WEEK No.4 Weather Surface H south of the province. Trough north-east of the area. Jet is located south of the province. Second Jet north north-west of the area, moving air to the north west. Weak PVA at the south of the area. Both soundings are unstable, especially YC sounding. Storm #1 developed W of Springbank at 2145Z. It slowly moved to NE with new development to the south. First titan cell appeared at 2331Z, and tracked to NE over W Calgary. It diminished to a SHRA over N Calgary. Max top=6.5 km, 52.5 max dBZ, max VIL 6.9 kg/m2. Storm #2 developed SW of Springbank at 0030Z, and followed the same track behind storm #1. It diminished to a SHRA by 02Z and slowly moved to the NE and out of area by 04Z. Max top=7.5 km, 46 max dBZ, max VIL 5.2 kg/m2. Also, TS developed over foothills from W of Sundre to W of Rocky beginning around 00Z. First cell entered project area W of Caroline at 01Z. It moved to the NE as a small titan cell. New growth developed ahead of the line, 8 mi S of Sylvan Lake at 0313Z. It was intense for 10 minutes then diminished to a thundershower by 04Z and move towards the NE. Max top=9.5 km, 52 max dBZ, max VIL 9.3 kg/m2. Pea size hail reported in Calgary and near Sundre.
Activities Summary HS2 was launched at 2340Z south of Calgary. HS2 was airborne at 2358Z. HS2 started seeding storm #1 W of Calgary at 00Z. HS2 stopped seeding storm #1 at 0021Z as inflow had diminished. HS2 then patrolled S of Springbank, until storm #2 developed. HS2 started seeding storm #2 at 0131Z W of Calgary. HS2 stopped seeding storm #2 at 0203Z, and RTB at 0231Z as no more storms developed. Flight summary HS2: 2358-0241: 53 minutes acetone generator time, 2 Storms W Calgary.
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Tmax YC =20 C and rain 2.4 mm. Tmax QF = 21 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 19.8 C and no rain. June 19, Monday Upper L is in BC. Surface L south of the province. Trough is in the south of the province. Jet south of the province. PVA is in the area, high values in night hours. Humidity is high in lower troposphere. Both soundings are significantly unstable, especially YC. Storms developed across the southern regions in the early afternoon and tracked to the NE. In the late afternoon, storms developed in the foothills W of Olds and tracked to the NE. Embedded thundershowers continued across the area overnight. Storm #1 developed SE of Calgary at 2035Z. It slowly moved to NE. It diminished to a SHRA east of Calgary at 2244Z. Max top=10.5 km, 51.5 max dBZ, max VIL 15.2kg/m2. Storm #2 developed over Calgary at 21315Z. It slowly moved to the N. It diminished to a SHRA over Calgary at 2221Z. Max top=8.5 km, 48 max dBZ, max VIL 6.6 kg/m2. Storm #3 developed over Didsbury at 2317Z. It diminished to a SHRA over Didsbury at 2349Z Max top=7.5 km, 52 max dBZ, max VIL 12.2 kg/m2. Pea size hail (1 cm diameter) was observed at the radar from this storm complex. Storm #4 developed over Red Deer at 2349Z. It diminished to a SHRA over Red Deer at 0038Z. Max top=6.5 km, 46 max dBZ, max VIL 4.4 kg/m2 Tmax YC =17.7 C and 0.6mm rain. Tmax QF = 21.5 C and 1.8mm rain. Tmax Radar = 18.9 C and 13mm rain in TB, and 21 mm in wedge gauge. HS1 was launched at 2100Z south of Calgary. HS1 was airborne at 2121Z. HS1 started seeding storm #1 just SE of Calgary at 2121Z. HS1 stopped seeding storm #1 at 2126Z as there appeared a new cell over Calgary. HS1 started seeding Storm #2 over Calgary at 2131Z. HS1 stopped seeding #2 at 2231Z as it diminished. HS1 patrolled and RTB at 2315Z. HS3 was launched at 2231Z to Innisfail. HS3 was airborne at 2245Z. HS3 started seeding storm 2 west of Didsbury at 2317Z. HS3 stopped seeding storm #3 at 2346Z as it diminished. HS3 started seeding Storm #4 over Red Deer at 2353Z. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #4 at 0038Z as it diminished. HS3 patrolled and RTB at 0058Z. Flight summary HS1: 2121-2315: 242 EJT, 9 BIP, 2 storms over Calgary. HS3: 22245-0058: 15 BIP, Storms over Didsbury and Red Deer
June 20, Tuesday
Low pressure region is located over the border of Alberta and SK. Cold front at the north of the province. Jet south of the province. YC sounding is unstable. Storm #1 formed W of Airdrie and moved SE. At 2011Z HS2 reported cloud base height 6.5 kft. Max reflectivity 47 dBZ, top 6.5 km and vil 3.6 kg/m2 were observed at 2041Z over Calgary city. Pea size hail was reported at this time. Storm #1 diminishing at 2100Z when Titan stopped tracking the last cell in this cluster. Storm #2 formed NW of Cochrane at 2123Z when Titan started tracking the first cell. It moved fast to Calgary region. At 2214Z HS2 reported cloud base height 8.5 kft. Max reflectivity 51 dBZ, top 7.5 km and vil 8.2 kg/m2 were observed at 2219Z. Storm #2 dissipated completely at 2303Z over the NW border of Calgary city. Tmax YC =20.8 C and 19.8 mm rain. Tmax QF =18.3 C and 19.9 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 18.3 C and 13.3 mm (0.6mm gage)
HS2 was launched at 1948Z N of Calgary and it was airborne at 2006Z. At 2030Z HS2 started seeding storm #1 over the Calgary city. At 2100Z Titan stopped tracking the last cell in this cluster and HS2 stopped seeding storm #1. After that HS2 returned to the area N of Calgary city for patrolling. At 2212Z HS2 started seeding storm #2 NW of Cochrane. . This storm moved fast to Calgary city. At 2256Z it diminished dramatically and at 2302Z HS2 stopped seeding and returned to base. HS1 was launched at 2233Z NW of Calgary and started seeding storm # 2 2259Z. At 2307Z HS1 stopped seeding and started patrol in the area SW of Calgary. After that HS1 was patrolling shortly over Sundre and returned to base at 2359Z. Flight summary HS2: 2003-2312: 14 BIP, right generator 1hr 21 min, left generator 1 hr 23 min. 1 storm over Calgary and 1 storm NW of Calgary. HS1: 2255-0030: 1 BIP. 1 Storm NW of Calgary.
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rain. June 21, Wednesday Surface Low pressure center is over Manitoba. High north of Alberta. Cold front is in north-eastern part of the province. Jet is south of the province. Both soundings are unstable. YC sounding is more unstable and troposphere is more humid. Storm #1 formed NW of Cochrane outside of the area and moved to the SE slowly. Titan started tracking the first cell of this storm at 2144Z. At 2220Z this cell intensified with Max reflectivity 54 dBZ, top 9.5 km and vil 17.2 kg/m2 . At 2253Z this cell dissipated completely. At 2307Z Titan started tracking a new cell, which formed N of Cochrane and moved to the Calgary area. Max reflectivity 52 dBZ, cloud top 11.5 km and vil 16.1 kg/m2 were observed at 0030Z. The last cell of storm # 1 diminished at 0158Z and at 0203Z Titan stopped tracking storm #1 SE of Calgary city. HS2 was launched at 2001Z for patrolling the area W of Calgary and it was airborne at 2017Z. At 2219Z HS2 started seeding storm #1 at cloud base over the W border of the target area NW of Cochrane. HS1 was launched at 2228Z and it was airborne at 2248Z. At 2258Z HS1 started seeding the same storm at cloud top. HS3 was launched at 2325Z. At 2339Z HS3 was airborne. At 2345Z HS2 stopped seeding and RTB. At 2358Z HS3 started seeding storm #1 over Calgary at cloud base. HS2 was launched a second time at 0024Z before the storm hit the YC airport. At 0040Z HS2 was airborne and started seeding storm #1 over Calgary city at cloud base. At 0107Z HS1 was out of flairs and RTB. HS3 climbed to cloud top and continued seeding. HS3 and HS2 stopped seeding at 0150Z and 0154Z, respectively. HS2 RTB at 0156Z and HS3 at 0205. Flight summary HS2: 2014-2354: 13 BIP, right generator 86 min. HS1: 2250-0110: 289 EJT, 16 BIP. HS3: 2336-0227: 98 EJT, 15 BIP. HS2: 0037-0221: 11 BIP, right generator 74 min. 1 storm over Calgary.
Tmax YC =18.8 C and 19.2mm rain. Tmax QF = 20.0 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 17.7 C and 11mm rain.
June 22, Thursday
Surface Low is to the south-east of the province. Surface High is to the south of the province. Occluded front is to the north-east of the area. Secondary cold front is in BC, approaching the area. Jet is south of the province. Both soundings are unstable. YC sounding is more unstable. Scattered -SHRA in morning with rice hail reported at QF. SHRA developed along central foothills and moved through N project from 20 to 00Z. Storm #1 developed at 1930Z, 24 miles W of Cremona. It moved to the SE slowly and first entered the project area around 21Z. It continued to move toward N Calgary. New growth developed to the south of the main cell at 2242Z on the N edge of Calgary. The storm dissipated to a +SHRA by 00Z as it crossed the QE2. Max cell top= 10.5 km, 55.5 max dbz, max VIL 18.7 kg/m2 Funnel cloud reported by HS2 at 2307Z on the N edge of YC. Tmax YC = 19.3 C and trace of rain. Tmax QF = 19.7 C and trace of rain. Tmax Radar = 17.4 C and 5.1 mm rain, 1 mm in wedge gauge Friday morning. Jet approaching central BC coast, slowly moving E and nosing into AB Saturday. Weak short wave and PVA moves through this afternoon. Negative VV at 500 mb but positive VV at 700 mb over foothills due to northerly winds producing upslope flow. Atmosphere is unstable and dry above 600 mb. Light RA in S during morning. SHRA develop along foothills beginning around 18Z, move SE and dissipated in the W project area as they moved off
HS2 was launched at 1955Z to patrol SW of Springbank. HS2 was airborne at 2014Z and reported no growth W of Springbank and proceeded north to Cremona. HS2 started seeding Storm #1 at cloud base at 2151Z 12 nm N of Cochrane. HS2 stopped seeding at 2336Z and RTB HS1 was launched at 2250Z to NW Calgary. HS1 was airborne at 2311Z, and started seeding Storm #1 at 2314Z. HS1 stopped seeding at 2355Z as the storm had diminished and moved E of Airdrie. HS1 RTB at 0041Z with no new development. Flight summary HS2: 2012-2346: 22 BIP, 105 min acetone generator time, Storm from NW Cochrane to N YC. HS1: 2308-0057: 130 EJT, 8 BIP, storm N YC. 1 Storm N of Calgary.
June 23, Friday
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higher terrain. Titan cell in W buffer beginning at 2019Z and entered project around 21Z, then dissipated to +SHRA. Max cell top= 6.5 km, 45 max dbz, max VIL 6.1 kg/m2 Tmax YC = 18.6 C and trace of rain. Tmax QF = 20.6 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 18.3 C and no rain. Upper jet over N BC with nose pushing into N AB. High pressure over SW US producing ridge over western Canada. NVA over area today and evening, with a little PVA overnight. Some positive vertical velocity (VV) along N foothills this evening. Good surface warming giving a little instability in Atmosphere, but good mid level warming. Sunny, clear and nice day. Few Ci and Cu clouds, TCU reported by YC and BW in afternoon. Tmax YC = 21.9 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 21.3 C and no rain. WEEK No.5 Weather Jet more N than yesterday, off AK coast with nose into N BC. Ridge axis over E BC, slowly moving eastward. Small PVA streak along mountains in afternoon moved east through project after 00Z with some positive vertical velocity. Weak surface trof through central MB/SK. Lots of available energy in atmosphere for a lifted parcel. Sunny, warm, and another nice day. Ci, Cu, CB, reported and TCU observed E of Olds and Red Deer. Tmax YC = 24 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.3 C and no rain. June 26, Monday Big ridge axis now extends through project area. Weak jets on E and W sides of ridge. All NVA in area today thru Tuesday afternoon. Small positive vertical velocity over mountains to the NW of project area during late afternoon. Lots of potential energy in the atmosphere. Sunny, hot, nice day. Ci, Cu, Ac, and TCU reported all afternoon in the S. Tmax YC = 25.7 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 25 C and no rain. June 27, Tuesday Ridge axis over E SK. Weak jets on E and W sides of ridge. Upper low off AK coast moving eastward. Little PVA in area today, stronger in evening. Slight positive vertical velocity during afternoon just E of area, with negative vertical velocity after 00Z. High surface T and Td continue to give lots of potential energy in atmosphere. Surface low in N AB with cold front moving just N of project this evening. Sunny, hot, clear for the majority of the project area. One thunderstorm developed along the foothills W of HS1 performed some test flights. HS1 was airborne out of Calgary at 1926Z and landed in Red Deer at 1951Z. HS1 was airborne from Red Deer at 2126Z and landed in Olds at 2139Z. HS1 was airborne out of Olds at 2318Z and landed in Calgary at 2333Z. No seeding was conducted. Flight summary HS1: 1926-1951: YC to QF, no storms HS1: 2126-2139: QF to Olds, no storms HS1: 2318-2333: Olds to YC, no storms
June 24, Saturday
Activities Summary No aircraft operations Public Relations: Edmonton Journal has story about Weather Modification titled Scientists Dream of Taming Hurricanes. The story includes interview comments and a photo of T. Krauss at the OldsDidsbury Airport.
HS3 was launched at 2343Z to RockyMH. HS3 was airborne at 2359Z. HS3 patrolled near RockyMH and RTB at 0110Z as storms had diminished. The storm did not threaten any towns. Flight summary HS3: 2359-0110: patrol only, no seeding.
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Rocky around 23Z and moved through the NW corner of the project in a NE direction until it diminished at 0030Z. Max cell top 10.5 dbz, 52.5 max dbz, 14.2 max VIL Tmax YC = 27.9 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 28.7 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 26.7 C and no rain. June 28, Wednesday Jet over central BC stretching into Northern AB. Ridge axis E over SK/MB. Upper low over NE corner of BC. Some PVA in Northern project in the evening. Slight positive vertical velocity today into evening. Cold front to the E of project, passed though during morning hours. Atmosphere continues to warm until midnight. Less energy in atmosphere then previous days, but still potentially dangerous. Sunny, hot, mostly clear, Ci, with a few reports of TCU. Tmax YC = 29.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 25.4 C and no rain. June 29, Thursday A low-pressure center located over the Northern border of AB province. Ridge axis remained on the border of SK and MB. Main core of the jet PVA is over Northern part of AB province. Both soundings are stable and dry at the middle levels. Sunny, fair weather, Ci, Cu hum, Ac Tmax YC = 19.1 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 21.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 20.1 C and no rain. June 30, Friday Upper level Low-pressure center located N of SK province. Surface High-pressure center over the border of AB and SK. Jet PVA core is over N part of AB province. Both soundings unstable and humid at the low levels. Storms developed over the foothills around noon and started moving to the plains around 20Z (2 pm). The largest storms formed N of Sundre and tracked E across Olds. Other storms formed SW of Cremona and tracked across Airdrie towards Strahtmore. These storms were seeded. Other storms formed E of Calgary and tracked towards Brooks. Activity in the North was generally less severe, with one short-lived storm formed near Bentley that tracked over Blackfalds as it dissipated. The maximum size hail reported at the time of this report was 2 cm near Olds. Tmax YC = 24.7 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.3 C and trace rain. Tmax Radar = 23.4 C and 0.9 mm rain. HS1 was launched at 2022Z to patrol cells that had developed over the foothills W of Didsbury. HS1 was airborne at 2053Z. Shortly after 21Z, HS1 reported vigorous Tcu cloud development over the city of Calgary and started seeding over YC (Storm #1) at 2118Z as a precaution. HS1 stopped seeding Storm #1 at 2141Z as the clouds cleared YC. HS1 was then sent to new cell intensifying near Sundre. HS1 started seeding Storm #2 near Sundre at 2218Z HS1 stopped seeding Storm #2 at 2249Z and headed South to start seeding Storm #3 located 11 nmi NW of Airdrie at 2255Z. HS2 was launched at 2243Z to the storm #3 developing NW of Airdrie. HS2 was airborne at 2259Z and started seeding Storm #3 W of Airdrie at cloud base at 2304Z. HS2 continued seeding Storm #3 as it tracked over Airdrie and East of the QEII. HS2 stopped seeding #3 at 0018Z as the storm was E of YC and would pass south of Strathmore. At this time, the tallest cell of the day was located 13 mi SW of Strathmore with max 52 dBZ, 12.5 km top, and 24.3 VIL. HS2 then went on patrol near YC. HS1 stopped seeding #3 at 2321Z and headed for a cell developing W of Okotoks. HS1 started seeding Storm #4 W of Okotoks but only made 2 seeding passes before it dissipated and then HS1 returned to continue seeding Storm #3, now located about 6 mi
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NE of YC Airport. At this time, Storm #3 reached a maximum of 56 dBZ, 11.5 km top, and 29.1 VIL. HS1 stopped seeding #3, E of YC at 0023Z and RTB. HS2 started seeding secondary development 10 mi W of Olds at 0048Z (Storm #6). HS2 stopped seeding #6 at 0110Z and RTB at 0122Z. HS3 was launched at 2304Z to secondary, new development 14 mi NW of Sundre. HS3 was airborne at 2322Z and started seeding Storm #5 at 2331Z, N of Sundre at cloud base. At 2359Z, Storm #5 was located 13 mi NW of Olds with max 54 dBZ, 10.5 km top, and 18.3 VIL. HS3 continued seeding at cloud base as the storm tracked over the town of Olds. Jason reported pea size hail covering the ground E of Sundre at 0029Z. Viktor reported 1.3 cm hail in Olds at 0030Z. Terry called the Env. Canada Storm Hot Line with these hail reports at 0044Z, since EC had not issued Warnings yet. HS3 continued seeding Storm #5 as it crossed the QEII. HS3 stopped seeding #5 at 0120Z, patrolled for a while and then RTB at 0211Z. Flight summary HS1: 2052-0038: 286 EJT, 17 BIP. Seeding #1 over YC, #2 Sundre to Didsbury, #3 over Airdrie, #4 W of Okotoks, and #3 again E of YC. HS2: 2257-0134: 7 BIP, 192 min Acetone. Seeding #3 W Airdrie to Strathmore, #6 W of Olds. HS3: 2319-0221: 26 BIP. Seeding Storm #5 from Sundre to Linden. July 1, Saturday Low-pressure center located over N part of the border between SK and MB provinces. Trough location remains E of the target area. Soundings are unstable and humid at the low levels. 1.2 cm hail reported at Springbank Airport at 2009Z. Env. Canada reported Golfball hail from the storm that tracked W of Calgary, but this report has not been substantiated. Tmax YC = 23.6 C, Pr = 4.6 mm. Tmax QF = 26.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.4 C and no rain. HS1 was launched at 1927Z to a storm that had developed NW of Cochrane. HS1 was airborne at 1949Z and started seeding Storm #1 at 1954Z as the storm moved towards Calgary. HS1 stopped seeding Storm #1 at 2127Z as he was out of flares and Storm #1 was at the south border of Calgary. HS1 RTB at 2139Z. HS2 was launched at 2009Z to the storm #1 that was now located near Springbank. HS2 was airborne at 2019Z and started seeding Storm #1 at 2022Z over the west border of YC at this time. HS2 stopped seeding Storm #1 at 2238Z as the storm had diminished and was leaving the area. HS2 RTB at 2252Z. HS3 was launched at 2058Z to the storm #1 as HS1 was low on flares. HS3 was airborne at 2112Z and started seeding Storm #1 at 2147Z over Okotoks, and after HS1 had ended seeding and RTB. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #1 at 2240Z as the storm had diminished and was leaving the area. HS3 patrolled and RTB at 0110 Z. Flight summary HS1: 1949-2139: 302 EJT, 14 BIP. Seeding #1 over Cochrane to YC HS2: 2019-2252: 25 BIP, 365 min Acetone. Seeding Storm #1 over YC to High River. HS3: 2112-0110 : 99 EJT, 8BIP. Seeding Storm #1 over Okotoks to High River.
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Date July 2, Sunday
WEEK No.6 Weather High-pressure ridge forming to the W of AB province. Low-pressure center located over MB. The main core of the jet PVA is over the N part of SK province. Both soundings are unstable and humid. Thunderstorms developed in the W buffer shortly before 18Z. These cells dissipated as they moved off the higher terrain. Thunderstorm developed in the N buffer at 2240Z and moved into the N project area and dissipated to RA by 01Z. Storm #1 developed N of Rimbey at 2322Z. It moved S and rapidly dissipated 6 nm N of Sylvan Lake at 0107Z. Max cell top= 10.5, 49.5 max dBZ, max VIL= 10.4 kg/m2. Pea sized hail SW of Calgary and N of Lacombe. Tmax YC = 24.4 C and trace of rain. Tmax QF = 25.7 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.6 C and no rain.
Activities Summary HS1 was launched at 2026Z SW of Calgary. HS1 was airborne at 2048Z. HS1 patrolled W of Calgary then N of Calgary. HS1 RTB at 2206Z due to no growth in the area. HS3 was launched at 2306Z to storms N of Lacombe. HS3 was airborne at 2319Z. HS3 reported ragged bases and patrolled N of Lacombe. HS3 started seeding Storm #1 at 0029Z, 7 nm S of Rimbey. HS3 stopped seeding at 0106Z as no more LW or updrafts were found 7 nm N of Sylvan. HS3 RTB at 0135Z. Flight summary HS1: 2046-2217: patrol W and N of YC HS3: 2315-0143: 70 EJT, 7 BIP, 1 Storm S Rimbey to N Sylvan Lake.
July 3, Monday
Upper level ridge positioned over AB province. Surface High-pressure center over the project area. Jet PVA core located over the south part of SK province. Both soundings unstable and humid but no significant wind shear. Thunderstorms in W buffer beginning around 17Z and lasting through afternoon into evening hours. One moved E just crossing the project boundary line before dissipating W of Cremona. Max cell top= 11.5, 52.5 max dBZ, max VIL= 9.9 kg/m2. Tmax YC = 25.8 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27.5 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 25.7 C and no rain.
July 4, Tuesday
Upper level ridge remains over AB province. Surface High-pressure center still moving to E and now located over the border between SK and MB provinces. Both soundings are unstable. High temperatures and dew points were observed throughout the project area. Thunderstorms developed over the mountains beginning around 19Z. Storms remained in the W buffer all afternoon into the evening, but didnt move into the project area. RA did move into western portions of the project after 00Z lasting for a few hours. Tmax YC = 27.9C and no rain. Tmax QF = 29.8C and no rain. Tmax Radar =27.6 C and no rain.
July 5, Wednesday
Surface Low north west of the area. Jet is north of the province. Short wave trough is over the area. PVA is forecasted in the area. Both soundings are unstable. Atmosphere is rather humid. High temperature is forecasted in the area. Thundershower in morning over Calgary from 16 to
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18Z. TS in W buffer, to the N of the area and S of the area during afternoon and evening. One titan cell in the SW part of the project area. Max cell top= 8.5, 46 max dBZ, max VIL= 7.4 kg/m2. Forest fires in the mountains creating haze over project area. Tmax YC =27.7 C and 0.4 mm rain. Tmax QF = 30C and no rain. Tmax Radar =29.2 C and no rain. July 6, Thursday Surface low is northwest of the area. Cold front approaching the area. Jet cores are northwest and southwest of the area. PVA is forecasted in the area during day and night hours. Both soundings are significantly unstable. Early morning thunderstorms at Rocky and Eckville from 09Z to 13Z. Golf ball size hail reported at the Eckville camp ground but Jim Renick reports no damage in town. Max cell top= 12.5, 57 max dBZ, max VIL= 30.4 kg/m2. SHRA over area from 13 to 1830Z. TS began in W buffer shortly after 19Z. Storm #1 formed at 2222Z N of Bragg Creek, moved east intensifying over W Calgary. Storm #1 slowly moved through Calgary, then through Strathmore and left the project area after 02Z. Pea size hail reported in NW YC. 24 mm hail reported at the YC Airport. 2.5 cm hail reported in central-NE Calgary. There were unconfirmed reports of some golfball hail. Max cell top= 12.5, 54 max dBZ, max VIL= 20.1 kg/m2. Continued haze and smoke over project area from forest fires, but skies cleared after the storm passage. Tmax YC =25.9 C and 23.8mm rain. Tmax QF =25.5 C and 1.2mm rain. Tmax Radar = 23.4C and 18.3 mm rain, 16 mm in wedge gauge. HS1 was launched at 2301Z to the new development SW of YBW. Congestion and ATC delays on the ground at YC delayed the take-off and HS1 was finally airborne at 2333Z and immediately started seeding in the climb to cloud top. Storm #1 was now located over NW YC. The a/c track of HS1 was originally not visible but came back after rebooting the computer. At 2340Z the first report of pea size hail was received from NW Calgary. HS1 was forced to deice at 2354Z and was given vectors SE of the storm to descend. HS2 was launched at 0001Z in order to take-off before the storm shut down the airport. HS1 was back seeding at cloud top at 0008Z at a time when 24mm hail was reported at YC Airport. At 0013Z Ed Verkaik reported 25mm hail (flat oblate spheroids) at Centre St and 14 Ave NE. HS2 was airborne at 0016Z and started seeding Storm #1 over Calgary at 0021Z at cloud base. 1 inch hail was reported at this time near the Stampede Grounds and at 0040Z. T. Krauss was interviewed by Global TV for a live report of the storm proceedings. HS3 was launched to Calgary from Red Deer at 0049Z. HS3 was airborne at 0013Z and headed south. HS1 stopped seeding (out of flares) at 0015Z and RTB as the main storm core was now E of Calgary City limits. HS2 continued seeding the storm as it headed towards Strathmore. HS2 stopped seeding #1 at 0202Z as the storm passed Strathmore as a line of thundershowers. HS2 RTB at 0220Z.. HS3 patrolled the project area behind the line of thunderstorms until 0304Z and then RTB without conducting any seeding. Flight summary: HS1: 2327-0135: 275 EJT, 15 BIP. Storm #1 over Calgary at cloud top. HS2: 0014-0239: 14 BIP, 198 min of Acetone. Storm #1 over Calgary at cloud base. HS3: 0110-0323: Patrol only. July 7, Friday Low is located in Alberta, north of the area. Trough is north of the area. Cold front had passed the area and is to the east of the area. Both soundings are slightly unstable. A very long lived Storm #1 developed along foothills NW of Rocky around 2030Z outside N buffer zone. It moved into the N buffer at 2154 N of Rocky. Storm #1 left the area around 01Z SW of Stettler. Max cell top= 10.5, 52.5 max dBZ, max VIL= 13.7 kg/m2. Env. Canada reported quarter size hail (25mm) from this storm, but radar indicates it likely fell north of the
Public Relations: David Bouche of Global TV Calgary visited the Olds radar and conducted interviews with T. Krauss, J. Renick, and C. Lee (HS2 Crew). T. Krauss also conducted a telephone interview with Renata of the Calgary Herald. HS2 flew to Olds after the briefing for the Global TV filming and interviews. HS3 was launched at 2207Z to a storm that was located in the N buffer zone N of Eckville and heading for Lacombe. HS3 was airborne at 2220Z and climbed to cloud top and began seeding Storm
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project and buffer areas. Pea size hail was reported W of Lacombe.
Tmax YC = 25.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 24.7 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 23.6 C and no rain.
#1 at 2232Z when the storm was located 25 mi NW of Lacombe. EC reported quarter size hail (25mm) earlier from this storm. The storm continued on a right-moving track, and crossed the QEII at 2340Z, passing just south of Lacombe. HS3 stopped seeding at 2346Z as the storm cleared Lacombe. Flight summary HS2: 1942-2115: Patrol only HS2: 2042-2115: Patrol only HS3: 2218-0023: 135 Ejt, 13 BIP, Storm #1, north of Red Deer
July 8, Saturday
Upper Low is over west border of BC and the second Low is over east border of Manitoba. Surface High is southwest of the area. Ridge is over the area. Both soundings are slightly unstable. Cu-hum-Cu cong, mostly sunny fair weather over the project area. Tmax YC =23.8 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.1C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.3C and no rain.
Date July 9, Sunday
WEEK No.7 Weather Upper Low located to the northwest of BC. Surface Lows located to the north east of the province and to the west of the area in BC. Cold front approaching the area. Jet is at the north of the province. Both soundings are unstable. A weak frontal passage (wind shift associated with clear air echo) occurred at QF before 11 am, and just after noon at the radar, moving south. This weak front kicked off the first cells NW of Airdrie, but these did not maintain themselves. Explosive cell development occurred around 19Z, at the southern end of the weak front, W of Cochrane. The first severe storm (#1) tracked across Cochrane towards Calgary and produced reports of 2.2 cm hail in Tuscany (NW Calgary), and 2.5 cm hail near Nose Hill Dr and marble size in Dalhousie. Secondary cell development occurred over S Calgary producing reports of 2.5 cm hail near Chinook Mall and marble size in Pump Hill. Storm #1: 13.5 km top, 52 dBZ, 13.9 max VIL The secondary cell near Chinook had a max VIL 11.2 kg/m2. Storm #2 formed near Pridis (W of Okotoks) and tracked E, just south of the Calgary city border. This storm passed N of Okotoks but there were reports of 5 cm hail from Heritage Pointe, located just south of Calgary City limits and Hwy 22X. This was the most severe storm of the day. Golfball hail was also reported at Dewinton. Storm #2: 15.5 km top, 54 dBZ, 17.8 max VIL. Storm #3 formed W of Turner Valley - Black Diamond and tracked towards Calgary before dying over the
Activities Summary HS1 was launched at 1934Z in response to a 12 km top cell that popped up NW of Airdrie. This cell went up like a rocket, but only as a single bubble, and the max reflectivity of this cell was quite low. Another cell started developing W of Cochrane. At 1950Z Titan started tracking this cell (Storm #1). HS1 was airborne at 1953Z and climbed N of Airdrie to investigate the first cell and then proceeded to new development W of Cochrane because the direction of movement was towards Calgary and more dangerous. At 2011Z HS1 began seeding storm #1 SW of Cochrane. HS2 was launched at 2036Z to seed at cloud base the same storm #1. At 2052Z, HS2 was airborne and at 2057Z started seeding storm #1 at base. HS2 seeded continuously Storm #1 and then Storm #2 at cloud base over S Calgary to Strathmore. At 2331Z HS2 stopped seeding and returned to base. HS3 was launched to the Cremona area at 2108Z as back-up to HS1. At 2120Z, HS3 was airborne and at 2149Z was in position W of Bragg Creek. At 2158Z, HS1 descended to 12 kft level out of EJ and continued seeding using BIPs. HS3 then started seeding storm #2 at 2157Z, at cloud top. At 2230Z HS1 stopped seeding because they were completely out of flares and retuned to base. At this time, HS3 was seeding at cloud top in their place. At 2302Z, HS3 stopped seeding storm #2, headed west to new development, and at 2312Z started seeding storm #3 near Turner Valley and Black Diamond. HS3 stopped seeding storm #3 at 2332Z and at 2340Z resumed seeding storm #2, now very close to SE Calgary. At 2359Z HS3 stopped seeding storm #2 over Strathmore. HS3 patrolled near Okotoks for a while and then started seeding new development W of Okotoks heading for SE Calgary (Storm #4) at
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earlier storms hail swath. Storm #3: 11.5 km top, 50 dBZ, 11.0 max VIL. Storm #4 formed just SE of Calgary City limits and tracked towards Strathmore. This storm exhibited explosive growth after it left the project area. Storm #4: 13.5 km top, 52 dBZ, 16.0 max VIL. Tennis ball size hail was reported near Milo (outside the project, east of High River and South of Cluny). Funnel clouds were reported near Pridis, Olds, and SE of Red Deer. A tornado was reported near Pine Lake, touching down briefly and causing no damage. Tmax YC = 26.1C and 2 mm rain. Tmax QF = 27.1C and 14.6 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 23.7C and 6 mm rain. July 10, Monday Upper Low in northwestern BC. Surface Lows south west of the area and northeast of the area. Jet core to the south of the area. PVA is forecasted in the area. Secondary cold front approaching the area. Both soundings are unstable. Mostly cloudy and cool with sct rain showers early in the day. A few sunny breaks in the afternoon and some sct weak thundershowers but no significant storms developed. Deep convection occurred east of the project over eastern AB and W SK. At 0214Z convective development was observed in the Rocky (YRM) area. The storm moved across the area towards Innisfail where it diminished. Max cloud top was 9.5 km, max reflectivity was 52 dBZ and Vil was 15.9 kg/m2. Tmax YC = 20.1 C and 4.0 mm rain. Tmax QF = 20.9 C and 3.6 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 19.3 C and 6.6 mm rain, 1.4 mm in wedge gauge. July 11, Tuesday Weak jet over northern AB/SK border. Upper low over NE corner of AB. PVA streak in eastern BC moved through project area after 00Z. Positive vertical velocity over area during afternoon with strongest in the evening to the N and E of project. Atmosphere is only slightly unstable. Sunny and nice afternoon. Isolated SHRA in the northern project beginning after 02Z, moving NE. Titan cell in N buffer around 05Z lasting for ~20 minutes, producing lightning. Max cell top=6.5 km, 47.5 max dbz, 6.1 max VIL. Tmax YC = 23.6 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.5 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 22.5 C and no rain. July 12, Wednesday Weak jet over SE AB. Weak upper low just north of AB with second upper low off AK coast. PVA streak moves through project during afternoon with some positive vertical velocity. The atmosphere continues to be slightly unstable.
0006Z. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #4 at 0024Z as the storm decayed rapidly after traveling over a previous hail/rain swath. HS3 patrolled W of Calgary and then RTB at 0043Z. Flight summary HS1: 1951-2244Z: 303 EJT, 15 BIP. Storm #1 Cochrane to Calgary at cloud top. #2 W of Okotoks to SE Calgary. HS2: 2050-2348Z: 24 BIP, 291 min of Acetone. Storm #1 over Calgary at cloud base. Storm #2 W of Okotoks to Strathmore. HS3: 2118-0103Z: 274 EJT, 21 BIP. Storm #2 Braag Creek to Okotoks to Strathmore. #3 TV-BD to S Calgary. #4 SE Calgary limits.
HS3 was launched at 0325Z to patrol and possible seeding storm in the Rocky area. At 0338Z HS3 was airborne and started patrolling SE periphery of this storm. At 0420Z HS3 returned to base as the storm had diminished. Flight Summary HS3: 0336-0427: Patrol flight between Rocky Mtn House and Red Deer. No seeding.
Public Relations: Jim Renick was interviewed live on CBC Radio for their morning show. HS1 conducted a training flight from Calgary to Red Deer in the early afternoon. HS3 conducted a training flight from Red Deer with the crew of HS1 as a familiarization and training exercise. HS1 then returned to Calgary. No seeding was conducted. Flight Summary HS1: 1853-1919: Test/training flight YC to QF. HS3: 2019-2033: Test/training flight around QF. HS1: 2057-2125: Test/training flight QF to YC. Public relations: Terry Krauss was interviewed by CKFM radio in Olds, about the recent severe storms and an outlook for the future. HS2 flew to Red Deer in the morning for
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TRW formed along the foothills and generally tracked to east and dissipated. One unusual cell formed along the E City limit of Calgary and grew to hail potential and was seeded by HS2. Another more typical cell was reported to produce pea size hail W of Sundre, but this cell quickly dissipated as it moved E. In the late afternoon, a single cell developed quickly just W of Airdrie, tracking across the north part of Airdrie. Secondary development occurred N of Airdrie and tracked E towards Three Hills. Max cell top= 11.5 km, 53.5 max dbz, 17.5 max VIL Golf ball size hail reported W of Airdrie and multiple funnel clouds reported near Langdon. Tmax YC = 25.1 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 22.5 C and trace of rain. Tmax Radar = 19.5 C and 14.2 mm rain, 13.5 mm in wedge gauge.
maintenance. HS2 was launched from QF at 2030Z to conduct a patrol flight in the afternoon on its return from Red Deer to Calgary. HS2 was directed to seed Storm #1 along the E City limit of Calgary at 2244Z. HS2 started seeding at cloud top at 2305Z and stopped seeding at 2328Z as the storm dissipated. HS2 RTB at 2337Z, reporting no further inflow at cloud base. HS3 was launched at 0115Z for patrol and possible seeding new cells N of Airdrie. At 0126Z HS3 was airborne. At 0149Z HS3 started seeding storm #2 N of Airdrie. At 0208Z storm #2 diminished and at 0210z HS3 stopped seeding this storm. At 0320Z HS3 started seeding storm #3 over the Linden area. At 0338Z HS3 stopped seeding this storm and at 0347Z returned to base. Flight Summary HS2: 1418-1445: Maintenance flight YC to QF. HS2: 2050-2352: 72 EJT, 3 BIP. Storm #1 E Calgary. HS3: 0123-0400: 9 BIP. Storm #2 N Airdrie, Storm #3 E Linden No aircraft operations
July 13, Thursday
Strong jet over southern BC and stretching through project area. Upper low off AK coast slowly moving SE. Small ridge along southern AB/SK border. Small PVA streak in project during afternoon hours with slight positive vertical velocity. Atmosphere is unstable in the northern project area. Sunny and nice day. Thunder-SHRA in N buffer from 01Z to 0330Z. 38.5 max dbz. Tmax YC = 24.0 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 22.8 C and no rain.
July 14, Friday
Strong Jet stretched from SW BC to southern MB. Upper low off BC coast. Little ridge over southern AB today. Weak PVA streak moves into project in late afternoon. Slight positive Vertical velocity over area. Atmosphere is a little unstable, but mid levels are very dry. Another nice sunny day. Few areas of SHRA in N half of project area from 17 to 20Z. 32.5 max dbz. Tmax YC = 25.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.9 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 23.3 C and no rain.
July 15, Saturday
Strong upper Jet stretching from off the BC coast, through central AB/SK/MB and into ON. Weak upper low over central AB. PVA streak enters project area early afternoon and remains for 2 days. Some positive vertical velocity over area, stronger to the north. Atmosphere is unstable with more moisture than previous days. Another sunny and nice day. SHRA in E buffer from 23Z to 2330Z. SHRA in N buffer from 07Z to 0830Z. RA in northern project from 12 to 1430Z. 34 max dbz.
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Tmax YC = 26.5 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 24.6 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 23.4 C and no rain.
Date July 16, Sunday
WEEK No.8 Weather Upper jet over central AB, through SK and MB into northern ON. Upper low off BC coast. Ridge axis along AB/BC border. Strong PVA streak below upper jet. Positive vertical velocity over area in late afternoon and through night. Atmosphere is mostly stable today, becoming a little unstable overnight, and very unstable tomorrow before noon. Ac, Cu med, fair weather
Tmax YC = 20.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 20.9 C and no rain. July 17, Monday Upper level ridge located over SK. Local surface Lowpressure center has formed over the target area. Jet PVA core remains over AB province. Both soundings are unstable and cooler than yesterday on the 500 mb level. Cb developed mostly in the northern part of the area. Storm #1 moved from Caroline to Innisfail and produced hail up to 27 mm (loonie size) near Burnt Stick Lake and Caroline and nickel size W of Innisfail. Storm #2 moved from Penhold to Red Deer and produced hail up to 2 cm at the Red Deer airport. HS3 was launched to Caroline at 2056Z to storm #1. At 2114Z HS3 was airborne and started to seed storm#1at 2128Z (top seeding). HS3 stopped seeding storm#1 near Innisfail at 2300Z as they were out of flares and RTB at 2317Z. HS2 was launched to Innisfail at 2131Z to storm #1. At 2145Z HS2 was airborne and started to seed storm#1at 2206Z (base seeding). HS2 stopped seeding storm#1 E of Innisfail and started to patrol at 2325Z as storm #1 had moved to the east of highway 2. He patrolled until RTB at 2348Z. HS1 was launched to Sundre at 2157Z. At 2213Z HS1 was airborne. He patrolled and started to seed storm#1at 2302Z (top seeding), taking the place of HS3. HS1 stopped seeding storm#1 at 2330Z after storm #1 had moved to the east of highway 2. He patrolled for a while and started seeding storm #2 near Penhold-Red Deer at 0031Z. He stopped seeding storm #2 at 0157Z as storm #2 had moved to the east of highway 2. HS1 patrolled and RTB at 0225Z. Flight summary HS3: 2114-2317: 306 EJT, 17 BIP. Storm #1, Caroline to Innisfail. HS2: 2145-2348: 10 BIP, 158 min of Acetone. Storm #1, Innisfail. HS1: 2213-0225: 202 EJT, 14 BIP. Storm #1 Innisfail. Storm #2- Red Deer. No aircraft operations
Tmax YC = 26.9 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27.4 C, Pr = 6.8 mm. Tmax Radar = 26.3 C Pr = 1.8 mm.
July 18, Tuesday
Two surface Low-pressure centers located over south borders of BC and SK. Occluded front is over AB province. Jet PVA core is over south part of target area. Soundings are unstable and humid. Cu cong-Cb were developing through the day in the area. Showers and thundershowers but no hail reports. Tmax YC = 19.1 C, Pr = 1.0 mm. Tmax QF = 22.6 C, Pr = 0.2 mm.
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Tmax Radar = 18.6 C, Pr = 1.8 mm. July 19, Wednesday Upper level ridge has formed over AB province. Surface High-pressure center located over the target area. Jet PVA core is over south part of SK and MB provinces. Both soundings are slightly unstable. Mostly sunny and warm during the day with fair weather cumulus clouds. Mid level Ac and As cloud and light rain crossed the southern part of the project area over night. A weak band of convection formed in the northern project area. Red Deer station reported lightning to the NW at 07Z (1 am) from this weak convection. Tmax YC = 21.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.0 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 21.3 C and no rain. July 20, Thursday Upper level ridge remains located over AB province. The ridge axis has changed position and now directed from N to S. Two surface High-pressure centers located over the south part of BC and SK. Soundings are slightly unstable and significantly warmer aloft than yesterday. Sunny and nice day over area. Ci, Cu, and TCU reported at all stations. Tmax YC = 25.1 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 26.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.3 C and no rain. July 21, Friday Upper level ridge remains located over AB province. Surface High-pressure center located over the south border of SK province. Both soundings are stable at the low levels and slightly unstable above 500 mb level. Sunny and hot day. Ci, Cu, Ac reported. YC reported TCU at 21Z, but no other reports of TCU. Kamloops, BC reached a high temperature of 39.5 C. Tmax YC = 29.8 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 30.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 29.7 C and no rain. July 22, Saturday Upper level ridge remains located over AB province. The ridge axis has moved slightly to W. Occluded front located N of BC and AB provinces. Both soundings are unstable above 500 mb level with significant cap/inversion at the low levels. Sunny and hot during the day, with clouds in the evening. Thundershowers developed E of Sundre to NE of Olds around 0530Z lasting until 09Z. Second thundershower developed E of Sundre around 10Z and lasted for 30 minutes. Tmax YC =31.1 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 32.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar =31.4 C and no rain. No aircraft operations No aircraft operations No aircraft operations No aircraft operations
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WEEK No.9 Weather Low is located northwest of BC. Surface Lows are northwest and southwest of the area. Secondary cold front is forecasted north of the area. Jets are north of the province and east of the province. Both soundings are significantly unstable with a capping inversion at low levels. Thunderstorms developed over mountains beginning around 1730Z. First cell entered project area at 22Z, W of Caroline. Storm #1 developed around 20Z, over mountains NW of Cochrane. It moved SE along foothills until 2230Z when it turned easterly and tracked through south Calgary, with new growth at the southern edge of Calgary shortly after 23Z. Storm diminished to a thundershower around 2340Z. Max cell top= 12.5 km, 52 max dBZ, 12.7 max VIL Tmax YC = 32C and trace rain. Tmax QF = 32.7C and no rain. Tmax Radar =29.5 C and 2.3 mm rain.
Activities Summary HS1 was launched at 2146Z to SW of Springbank airport. HS1 was airborne at 2207Z. HS1 started seeding Storm #1 at 2238Z at cloud base (~9.5 kft). HS1 climbed to cloud top at 2259Z and continued to seed in the climb. HS1 stop seed at 2354Z. HS1 RTB at 0012Z. HS2 was launched at 2254Z to south Calgary. HS2 was airborne at 2309Z and began seeding Storm #1 at 2311Z at cloud base. HS2 stopped seeding at 0025Z, south of Strathmore. HS2 patrolled near Okotoks and RTB at 0107Z as no new cells developed. HS3 was launched at 2319Z to west of Innisfail. HS3 was airborne at 2336Z. HS3 patrol from Innisfail to Pine Lake, and RTB at 0036Z as no new cells developed in the north project area. Flight summary HS1: 2200-0022Z: 142 EJT, 5 BIP; Storm #1 W Calgary to SE Calgary. HS2: 2309-0122Z: 4 BIP, 146 min acetone generator time; Storm #1 Calgary to S Strathmore. HS3: 2334-0045Z: patrol Innisfail. Radar antenna assembly broke in early morning hours (08Z). Parts ordered from Fargo for overnight delivery. Environment Canada radars at Strathmore and Carvel were monitored and used as guidance for operations. HS2 was launched at 2251Z to Cochrane at cloud base. HS2 was airborne at 2310Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #1 W of Cochrane at 2335Z. HS2 stopped seeding Storm #1 at 2347Z, as precipitation was diminishing. HS2 was directed towards Storm #2 at 0020Z SW of Rocky. HS2 started seeding Storm #2 at 0114Z, W of Sylvan lake. HS2 stopped seeding Storm #2 at 0303Z E of Innisfail, as inflow diminished. HS2 RTB at 0303Z. HS3 was launched at 0135Z to Sylvan at cloud top. HS3 was airborne at 0147Z. HS3 started seeding Storm #3 at 0159Z near Eckville. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #3 at 0215Z, with no more updraft. HS3 patrol north project area watching for more development. HS3 RTB at 0415Z as storm to west diminished. Flight summary HS2: 2310-0325Z: 9 BIP, 166 min acetone generator time; Storm #1 Cochrane, Storm #2 Eckville to Innisfail. HS3: 0142:0420: 79 EJT, 1 BIP; Storm #3 Sylvan Lake. Radar antenna assembly still broken. Environment Canada radars at Strathmore and Carvel used as guidance to conduct operations. HS1was launched at 1956Z to SW Calgary at cloud base. HS1 was airborne at 2018Z. HS1 climbed to
July 24, Monday
Low is northwest of BC. Surface Lows are east of SK and south of SK. Secondary cold front passing the area. Jets north and south of the area. Weak PVA in the area. Both soundings are unstable. Thundershowers in morning south of Calgary. Thunderstorms developed along foothills beginning around 21Z. Storm #1 formed around 2230Z, west of Cremona. It moved SE along foothills. It was approaching Cochrane when it diminished around 00Z. Max echo top= 10.5 km, 52 max dBZ estimated. Storm #2 developed around 00Z SW of Rocky. It moved eastward through the project area just to the north of Innisfail and diminished to a shower by 03Z east of Innisfail. Max echo top= 12 km, 55 max dBZ estimated. Storm #3 developed on the backside of Storm #2 around 0120Z near Eckville. It moved eastward toward Sylvan and diminished to a SHRA by 0220Z. Max echo top= 10 km, 53 max dBZ estimated. Another storm developed N of Limestone around 02Z. It moved east and diminished to SHRA before reaching Caroline shortly after 04Z. Tmax YC =26.8 C and trace rain. Tmax QF =28.9 C and 1mm rain. Tmax Radar =25.9 C and 0.8 mm rain.
July 25, Tuesday
Low is northwest of BC. Surface Low north of Edmonton. Surface High is in SK. Weak PVA is in the area. Jet is at the north of the province. Trough is in the area. Warm front is at the east of the area. Cold front is at the north of the province. Both soundings are significantly unstable.
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Thunderstorms began developing along foothills shortly before 20Z and lasted well into the night hours. Storm #1 developed around 20Z, west of Cremona. It split in half with the north half moving NE diminishing quickly and the south half moving SE along the foothills towards Cochrane. Storm #1 dissipated to a SHRA around 23Z in the Cochrane area. Max echo top= 10km, 52 max dBZ estimated. Storm #2 developed near Limestone at 2130Z. It moved SE through Sundre and diminished around 0020Z W of Didsbury. Max echo top= 10 km, 52 max dBZ estimated. Storm #3 moved across the mountains from BC. It intensified at 2350Z W of Springbank. It moved E and diminished to a SHRA before reaching Calgary at 0140Z. Max echo top= 9 km, 53 max dBZ estimated. Storm #4 developed at 0150Z NW of Rocky. It moved SE through Rocky and diminished to a SHRA south of Innisfail at 0430Z. Max echo top= 12 km, 54 max dBZ estimated. Storm #5 developed at 0340Z N of Limestone. It moved SE through Caroline and diminished by 0430Z W of Innisfail. Max echo top= 10 km, 53 max dBZ estimated. Thundershowers remained in the W central project area until 10Z. Tmax YC =28.4 C and 0.4 mm rain. Tmax QF = 29.3C and 1.8 mm rain. (2 mm wedge) Tmax Radar = 27.8C and no rain.
cloud top at 2153Z. HS1 started seeding Storm #1 at 2305Z near Springbank. HS1 stopped seeding at 2322Z and RTB as the cell diminished. HS2 was launched at 2056Z to Cremona at cloud base. HS2 was airborne at 2126Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #1 at 2143Z N of Cochrane. HS2 stopped seeding at 2348Z and RTB with no new growth. HS3 was launched at 2316Z to Sundre at cloud base. HS3 was airborne at 2331Z. HS3 started seeding Storm #2 S of Sundre. HS3 stopped seeding at 0015Z with no more inflow. HS3 was directed towards Storm #3 at 0050Z W of Springbank. HS3 started seeding Storm #3 at 0106Z, S of Springbank. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #3 at 0134Z. HS3 patrolled in the Olds area then directed towards Storm #4 at 0230Z. HS3 started seeding Storm #4 at 0246Z. HS3 stopped seeding at RTB at 0309Z due to low fuel. HS2 was launched again at 0257Z, W of Innisfail. HS2 was airborne at 0312Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #4 at 0330Z, W of Innisfail. HS2 stopped seeding Storm #4 at 0420Z as it had moved over QEII. HS2 started seeding Storm #5 at 0536Z W of Innisfail. HS2 stopped seeding Storm #5 at 0547Z as the storm had diminished. HS2 continued to patrol the NW project area and RTB at 0636Z as storms were diminishing. Flight summary HS1: 2013-2336Z: 60 EJT, 2 BIP, Storm #1 Springbank to W YC. HS2: 2126-2358Z: 9 BIP, 250 min acetone generator time; Storm #1 N Cochrane to SW YC. HS3: 2327-0317Z: 21 BIP; Storm #2 S Sundre, Storm #3 Springbank (b), Storm #4 W Innisfail. HS2: 0307-0702Z: 7 BIP, 152 min acetone generator time; Storm #4 W Innisfail, Storm #5 W Innisfail (b).
July 26, Wednesday
Low is northwest of BC. Surface Lows in SK and northeast of the area. Jet core is north of the area. Weak PVA is in the area. Secondary cold front is north of the area. Both soundings are slightly unstable with stable layer near 5 km, which should prevent further development of Cu. Fair weather, light showers. Tmax YC = 29C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27.9C and 0.4 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 25.9C and 1.8 mm rain.
No aircraft operations. Radar operational at 8:00 am.
July 27, Thursday
Surface Lows northwest and southwest of the province. Surface Low is at the east border of SK. Ridge is north of the area. Jet crosses the province north of the area. Both soundings are slightly unstable with inversion between 550 and 500 mb. Fair weather during the day time, Development of Cb was seen at the northern part of the area during night hours. Cells tracked from N of RM eastward across the N part of Sylvan Lake and N of Red Deer. Considerable lightning was observed but no reports of
No aircraft operations. The radar started to display reduced power echoes in the mid-morning. The problem was diagnosed as a broken piece of flex wave-guide within the antenna pedestal. The radar was turned off at 1:27 pm (1927Z) in order to custom fabricate a replacement portion of wave-guide. The radar was off for the remainder of the day and night. The job was completed at 11 am (1706Z) the next morning.
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hail at the time of this report. Tmax YC =24.6C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.6C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.2C and no rain. July 28, Friday Low is located at the northwest of BC. Surface Lows are south and southwest of the area. Secondary cold front is approaching the area. Jets are north and south of the area. Weak PVA is in the area. Soundings are unstable. Thunderstorms formed over and around Calgary at 6 am in the morning. The most severe cell formed over S Calgary and dropped nickel size hail (22 mm) in the Mackenzie area of SE Calgary. Tmax YC = 23.9C and trace of rain. Tmax QF = 21C and heavy rain, amount NA. Tmax Radar = 19.6C and 3.0 mm rain, 4.1 mm in wedge guage. July 29, Saturday Jet over WA, through south BC into central AB. Strong upper low off BC coast, and ridge over SK. PVA streaming in from S BC to just N of project area, along with strong positive vertical velocity. Surface low moving into N project area. Atmosphere is more unstable in the north. Severe storms formed around 21Z at the far NW limits of the radar. Progressively, severe storms formed over the foothills further south. Around 23Z a severe cell formed 15 mi SW of Sundre and quickly became the big storm of the day as it moved off the foothills and tracked eastward across the project area. The storm appeared to be triggered by a jet streak of cloud with smoke coming from NW WA state and SE BC. The storm achieved cell tops of 13.5 km, max 56 dBZ, and max pixel VIL 15.9 kg/m2. The storm produced 5.4 cm hail 8 mi W of Olds, and 2 cm size hail in Olds, and 2.5 cm hail at the Olds airport. Env. Canada saw strong rotation on the Strathmore Doppler radar and issued a Tornado warning for the area, however, our pilots did not observe any funnel or tornado formation. HS3 was launched at 2324Z for patrolling and possible seeding a cell SW of Sundre. At 2337Z, HS3 was airborne. This cell developed very fast and HS2 was also launched to Sundre area at 2343Z and they were airborne at 0002Z. At 2349Z HS3 started seeding storm #1 SW of Sundre at cloud base. At 0011Z HS2 started seeding the same storm #1 at cloud base, while HS3 climbed to continue seeding at cloud top. HS1 was launched at 0029Z and was airborne at 0047Z. At 0103Z HS3 stopped seeding due to heavy icing, so it was decided they should RTB to YC to refuel and reflare at 0105Z. HS1 was nearby the Sundre storm, and they started seeding #1 at 0108Z at cloud top W of Didsbury. HS1 stopped seeding at 0124Z as the storm was decaying and crossing Hwy II. At 0131Z HS2 stopped seeding storm#1 at 19 nm E of the radar and RTB at 0150Z. HS1 continued patrolling some cells SW of RockyMH. At 0246Z HS3 was launched from Calgary for patrolling and return flight to QF and at 0313Z HS1 and HS3 both RTB. Flight summary HS3: 2330 QF 0114Z YC: 204 EJT, 9 BIP, Storm #1 SW of Sundre to E of Olds HS2: 2357-0205Z: 0 EJT, 13 BIP, 160 min acetone generator time; Storm #1 SW of Sundre to E of Olds. HS1: 0044-0343Z: 45 EJT, 2 BIP; Storm #1 W of Didsbury to E of QEII. HS3: 0305 YC 0329Z QF: Patrol flight. No aircraft operations. The radar was back in service at 1706Z.
Tmax YC = 30.9C and no rain. Tmax QF = 21.9C and trace of rain. Tmax Radar = 24.6C and 9.7 mm rain, 9.8 mm in wedge gauge.
WEEK No.10 Weather Strong upper Jet from Oregon into central MB. Deep upper trof from N of MB, SW through AB to W Oregon. Lots of PVA on east side of trof over project area. Highest positive vertical velocities to east of project by 00Z. Atmosphere is more unstable in the north project area and before 00Z. Thunderstorms began to develop in the N project area just before 1630Z.
Activities Summary HS3 was launched at 1842Z for patrolling over RM area. At 1856 HS3 was airborne. At 1905Z HS3 started patrolling over Sundre area. At 1955Z HS3 was directed to seed a new sell over Red Deer. HS3 started seeding storm #1 over Red Deer at 2012Z. At 2034Z HS3 stopped seeding this storm and at 2040Z started seeding storm #2 over Innisfail. At 2120Z HS3 stopped seeding storm #2 on 10 nm E of QE II. HS2 was launched at 2113Z to patrol the area NW of
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Storm #1 developed over southern Red Deer at 1951Z. It slowly moved NE and diminished by 21Z. Storm #2 was a line of cells that began to develop along the foothills around 18Z. It moved E as small thunderstorms. It crossed the QEII shortly after 21Z and out of project area by 22Z. Light RA remained over area until 04Z. Loonie size hail reported in Red Deer. Max cell top= 10.5 km, 54 max dBZ, 17.2 max VIL Tmax YC = 26.6 C and 2.4 mm rain. Tmax QF = 19.2 C and 13.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 21.7 C and no rain in auto station, 0.5 mm in wedge guage. July 31, Monday Strong jet from S Idaho to NE into northern ON. Upper low over northern AB/SK border. Very little PVA in area for next day and half. Some low level positive vertical velocities over area today. Atmosphere is warming some after cold upper trof passage, but still unstable during the afternoon. Few scattered convective showers developed in N project area and moved SE beginning around 1730Z. New showers continued to develop throughout the day and lasted until 09Z. Tmax YC = 23.3 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 20.2 C and 1.0 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 19.5 C and 0.8 mm rain, 0.5 mm in wedge guage. August 1, Tuesday Jet from central Wyoming to northern Quebec, with second weaker jet off BC coast. Two upper lows over northern SK and off AK coast. Little PVA streak moving into area during evening. Slight positive vertical velocities over area this afternoon and into evening. Atmosphere has low-level instability. SHRA developed along foothills beginning around 21Z. As they moved eastward, some intensified to weak thundershowers. By 05Z thundershowers diminished to widespread RA and remained in project until 08Z. Max cell top= 4.5km, 45 max dBZ, 3.5 max VIL. Tmax YC = 23.6 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 22.5 C and 5.6 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 22.1 C and no rain. August 2, Wednesday Jet in E Montana and second jet off BC coast. Upper low in N MB and second weak low over AK panhandle. Strong PVA streak to N of project area in Edmonton area. Positive vertical velocities over area again today. Atmosphere is unstable as previous days. Few SHRA developed in the early afternoon in the N half of the project area, lasting from 1930Z until 01Z. A thundershower developed S of Sylvan around 0130Z and moved E over QF, with 1 cm hail reported at the airport. Storm #1 developed N of Rocky around 02Z. It moved ESE past Lacombe by 0430Z.
Calgary. At 2133Z HS2 was airborne. At 2306Z HS2 RTB. Flight summary HS3: 1852 2208Z: 122 EJT, 14 BIP, Storm #1 Red Deer, storm #2 Innisfail. HS2: 2130 2321Z: Patrol N of YC.
HS3 was launched at 0308Z to Storm #1 northwest of Lacombe. HS3 was airborne at 0315Z. HS3 started seeding Storm #1at cloud base at 0330Z and stopped seeding at 0435Z as storm had moved east of Lacombe. HS3 RTB at 0502Z. Flight summary HS3: 0315 0502Z: 14 BIP; Storm #1 Lacombe Public Relations: J Renick live interview on radio CJ 102 in Weyburn, SK re cloud seeding for drought relief.
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Max cell top= 9.5 km, 50 max dBZ, 9.2 max VIL
Tmax YC = 24.3 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 21.8 C and 3.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 21.3 C and no rain. August 3, Thursday NW to SE jet over BC. Upper level trof over eastern BC into Washington and Oregon. PVA streak moved into project area in afternoon, then multiple bands after 00Z. Strong positive vertical velocities at 500 mb over project area during afternoon through evening. Atmosphere is more unstable than previous days. Multiple Cbs developed in the project area during day hours. Reports of heavy rain in Calgary with hail up to 2 cm. Most important was a Cb that developing west of Calgary and crossed south part of Calgary (storm#2). All 3 aircrafts seeded that Cb during its life cycle. Max cell top= 10.5 km, 52 max dBZ, 13.1 max VIL. Environment Canada reported quarter size hail in the Cremona area. Tmax YC = 21.1 C and 0.3 mm rain. Tmax QF = 20.9 C and 2.4 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 18.8 C and no rain in automated station, 0.6 mm in wedge gauge Friday morning. HS2 was launched at 2303Z to storm #2. HS2 was airborne at 2313Z. HS2 started seeding storm #2 at cloud base at 0330Z and stopped seeding at 0130Z as he was out of flares. HS2 RTB at 0143Z. HS3 was launched at 2335Z to Storm #3 north of Calgary. HS3 was airborne at 2345Z. HS3 started seeding storm #3 at cloud top at 2358Z and finished at 0002 as he was directed to storm #2 (Calgary). HS3 started seeding storm #2 (Calgary) at cloud top at 0015Z and stopped top seeding at 0130Z. HS3 started base seeding of storm #2 at 0130Z and stopped seeding at 0208Z as storm had moved east of Highway 2. HS3 RTB at 0253Z. Flight summary HS1: 20570012Z: 303 EJT, 21 BIP; Storm #1 Airdrie-Sundre, Storm #2 Calgary, Storm #4 Cochrane. HS2: 23130143Z: 26 BIP, 246 min acetone generator time; Storm #2 Calgary. HS3: 23450253Z: 150 EJT, 18 BIP; Storm #3 N Calgary, Storm #2 Calgary. August 4, Friday Upper level low-pressure center located over N border of SK and surface low-pressure center is over S part of the border between AB and SK. A weak cold front approaching from NW in the evening. Jet PVA core is over the project area. Both soundings are unstable and humid. Ns, embedded Cu cong Cb, scattered rains throughout the area, thunderstorm early morning in Olds. Tmax YC = 17.4 C, and trace of rain. Tmax QF = 13.8 C, and 12.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 12.3 C, and 4.8 mm in automated station and 4.8 mm in wedge gauge Saturday morning. August 5, Upper level ridge located over the target area. Surface No aircraft operations.
October 2006
HS1 was launched at 2038Z to Storm #1 between Airdrie and Sundre. HS1 was airborne at 2057Z. HS3 started seeding storm #1at cloud top at 2110Z. HS1 descended and continued base seeding from 2155Z to 2253Z when they were directed to storm #2 west of Calgary. HS1 started base seeding of storm #2 at 2325Z and climbed to top seeding at 2331Z. HS1 stopped seeding storm #2 at 2338Z and was directed to storm #4 north of Cochrane. HS1 started seeding storm #4 at 2346Z and finished seeding as he was directed again to storm #2 west of Calgary at 2347Z. HS1 restarted seeding storm #2 at 2353Z and stopped seeding storm #2 at 2355Z as they were out of flares. HS1 RTB at 0012Z.
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Saturday
High-pressure center is over the border between BC and AB provinces. Sounding of Calgary is stable. Sounding of Red Deer is slightly unstable. Both soundings are sufficiently dry. Sunny and nice day. Ac, Sc, Ci, Cu reported and TCU observed W of Didsbury in afternoon. Tmax YC = 21.6 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 20.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 20.1 C and no rain.
Date August 6, Sunday
WEEK No.11 Weather Upper level ridge and surface High-pressure center located over AB province and moving slowly to E. Calgary and Red Deer soundings both show subsidence inversions at the low level and slight instability at the middle level. Sunny, nice day. Few Ci, Ac, and Cu reported. Tmax YC =25.8 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.7 C and no rain.
August 7, Monday
Upper level ridge remains located over AB province. Ridge axis is over the central part of SK and directed from N to S. Short wave trough located over NW border of AB. Both soundings indicate subsidence inversions at low level and instability at the middle and upper levels. Another sunny, warm, nice day. Few Ci, Ac, Sc reported. Haze and smoke over western project area from forest fires. Tmax YC = 29.3 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 28.7 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 28.4 C and no rain.
August 8, Tuesday
Upper level ridges axis is located over E border of AB province. But the ridge and surface High-pressure center have started to weaken. Stationary front located N of project area. Both soundings are very unstable and Red Deer sounding is more humid. Another sunny, warm, nice afternoon. Ci, Ac, Cu and TCU reported in afternoon with continued haze and smoke from forest fires. Thick high clouds moved into area from the south after 23Z. Thundershowers in NE corner of project from 05Z to 06Z. Thundershowers developed just north of Calgary around 07Z until 08Z when they diminished to RA, with scattered RA overnight. Tmax YC = 32.5 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 31.1 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 31.0 C with no rain in auto station and 0.5 mm in wedge gauge Wednesday morning.
August 9, Wednesday
Short wave trough is located over the border between BC and AB provinces. Secondary cold front is approaching the target area from NW. The main jet
HS1 was launched at 2312Z to S of Springbank at cloud top. HS1 was airborne at 2330Z. HS1 patrol in Calgary area until 0026Z when directed to Storm #2
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PVA core is over NW part of AB. Both sounding are unstable and very humid. Scattered RA in morning diminishing in early afternoon. TS started developing along foothills after 22Z with isolated TS in project until 06Z. Widespread SHRA over most of the project area after 00Z, besides the isolated TS. Haze and smoke from forest fires remained over project area. Storm #1 developed at 2215Z near Limestone mountain. It moved E and diminished to a SHRA north of Olds at 0130Z. Max cell top= 9.5 km, 59 max dBZ, 20.1 max VIL. Storm #2 developed at 2315Z W of Turner Valley. It moved SE as a line from Okotoks to S of High River. It diminished to a SHRA by 0145Z in the Okotoks area. Max cell top= 12.5 km, 49 max dBZ, 11.1 max VIL. Storm #3 developed around 2240Z W of Cremona. It moved E through Crossfield and past QEII by 0245Z. Max cell top= 12.5 km, 58 max dBZ, 17.2 max VIL. Storm #4 developed at 0340Z on the SW corner of Calgary. It moved E rapidly and diminished to a SHRA by 05Z near Carsland. Max cell top= 10.5 km, 52 max dBZ, 13.6 max VIL. Twoonie size hail (2.7 cm) reported near Turner Valley from Storm #2. Tmax YC =23.9 C with 9.1 mm rain. Tmax QF = 21.7 C with 5.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 20.2 C with 3.6 mm rain in auto station and 3.1 mm in wedge gauge Thursday morning. August 10, Thursday Low is north of the province. Surface Low is southeast of the province. Warm front is north of the area. Secondary cold front is approaching the area from BC. Jet core is in the area. PVA is in the area. Both soundings are humid and unstable. First TS developed in S buffer around 20Z, with more storms developing around 2030Z. Isolated TS over project until 01Z then widespread SHRA until 0330Z. Haze and smoke from forest fires remained. Storm #1 developed at 2040Z SW of High River. It moved NE and out of project by 23Z. Max cell top= 12.5 km, 55 max dBZ, 25.3 max VIL. Storm #2 developed at 2030Z near Limestone Mountain. It moved NE over Red Deer airport and south end of Red Deer at 23Z. It moved out of the project by 2330Z. Max cell top= 11.5 km, 58 max dBZ, 21.1 max VIL. Storm #3 developed at 2330Z just north of Cochrane. It moved NE and diminished to SHRA by 0040Z near Airdrie. Max cell top= 11.5 km, 53 max dBZ, 10.8 max VIL. Storm #4 developed at 0038Z over west Calgary. It moved NE and was a short-lived cell, diminishing to a
near Turner Valley. HS1 encountered no feeder cells and severe icing so descended to cloud base. HS1 started seeding Storm #2 at 0103Z S of Turner Valley at cloud base. HS1 stopped seeding Storm #2 at 0149Z SE of Okotoks as storm diminished. HS1 RTB at 0156Z. HS3 was launched at 2358Z to NE Sundre at cloud top. HS3 was airborne at 0011Z. HS3 initially encountered no feeder cells and severe icing so descended to cloud base. HS3 started seeding Storm #1 at 0036Z 10 mi W of Olds at cloud base. HS3 stop seeding Storm #1 at 0120Z as inflow dropped off and was directed to Storm #3. HS3 started seeding Storm #3 at 0128Z 11 mi W of Crossfield. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #3 at 0249Z as storm had passed QEII. HS3 RTB at 0315Z due to low fuel. HS1 was launched for a second flight at 0318Z to W Calgary at cloud top. HS1 was airborne at 0340Z. HS1 started seeding Storm #4 at 0357Z over SW Calgary at cloud top with good updraft and liquid water. HS1 stopped seeding Storm #4 at 0506Z near Carsland as storm had diminished. HS1 RTB at 0528Z with all storms diminished to SHRA. Flight summary HS1: 2329-0209Z: 7 BIP; Storm #2 W Okotoks. HS3: 0008-0337Z: 24 BIP; Storm #1 W Olds, Storm #3 W Crossfield. HS1: 0336-0548Z: 235 EJT, 10 BIP; Storm #4 S Calgary.
HS2 was launched at 2041Z to storms near High River. HS2 was airborne at 2058Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #1 at 2109Z at cloud base near High River. HS2 stopped seeding Storm #1 at 2233Z S of Carsland. HS2 RTB at 2251Z with thick layer clouds at cloud base over south project area. HS3 was launched at 2134Z at cloud base to Storm #2 near Caroline. HS3 was in thick layer clouds so they climbed to cloud top at 2153Z. HS3 reported no visible feeder clouds and descended to cloud base at 2214Z. HS3 started seeding Storm #2 at 2217Z 10 west of Innisfail. HS3 stopped seeding Storm #2 at 2331Z. HS3 was directed to Storm #3 at 0029Z but was prohibited by air traffic control to go to storm due to air traffic congestion. HS3 RTB to Calgary at 0038Z. HS1 was launched at 2301Z to cloud top near Cochrane. HS1 was airborne at 2327Z. HS1 started seeding Storm #3 2346Z 5 N of Cochrane. HS1 stopped seeding Storm #3 at 0040Z and directed to Storm #4. HS1 started seeding Storm #4 over west Calgary at 0048Z. HS1 stopped seeding Storm #4 at 0057Z. HS1 RTB at 0139Z with no new developing storms. HS3 was launched from YC at 0214Z to return to QF.
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SHRA by 01Z. Max cell top= 8.5 km, 44 max dBZ, 5.2 max VIL. Golf ball size hail (4.5 cm) reported from Storm #2. 2.0 cm hail reported at Red Deer airport from Storm #2. Winds gust to 120 kph at Red Deer airport. Tmax YC =19.8 C with 5.1mm rain. Tmax QF = 17.8 C with 30.8mm rain. Tmax Radar = 19.1C with 7.9mm rain in auto station and 10.1 mm in wedge gauge. August 11, Friday Low is northeast of the province. Upper Low is northwest of the area. Surface Low is northeast of the area. Cold front has passed the area. PVA is in the area. Jets are northeast and south of the area. Both soundings are humid and unstable. Cold, wet day with Ns, heavy rains and embedded Cu cong Cb. Widespread RA with thunder and lightning detected in morning. South project area clearing by 18Z, with the RA over the north half of project area throughout the afternoon into the evening. Rains cleaned the atmosphere of the haze and smoke, which had lingered over the project area the past few days. Tmax YC = 14.8 C and 10.7 mm rain. Tmax QF =13 C and 27.8 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 12.1 C and 36.8 mm rain in auto station and 40 mm in wedge gauge. August 12, Saturday Low is located at the northeast of Saskatchewan. Jet is at the southeast of the province. Light PVA is forecasted in the area. Both soundings are unstable. Calgary sounding is more unstable than the Red Deer sounding. Cu cong-Cb. SHRA formed along foothills beginning at 1730Z. Scattered popcorn thundershowers throughout the project in the afternoon lasting until 01Z. Graupel observed in Olds and Red Deer area. Max cell top= 6.5 km, 47 max dBZ, 5.4 max VIL. Tmax YC =19.1 C with 2.0 mm rain. Tmax QF = 19.8 C with 0.6 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 18.2 C with no rain in auto station and 0.6 mm in wedge gauge.
HS3 was airborne at 0227Z, patrolled Sundre area and RTB at 0243Z, seeing no clouds to west over mountains. Flight summary HS2: 2056-2303Z: 5 BIP, 166 min acetone generator time; Storm #1 High River. HS3: 2143-0050Z (YC): 18 BIP; Storm #2 W Innisfail to east of Red Deer. HS1: 2324-0159Z: 109 EJT, 11 BIP; Storm #3 N Cochrane, Storm #4 W Calgary. HS3: 0219(YC)-0257: patrol Sundre. No aircraft operations.
WEEK No.12 Weather Lows are located north of BC and at the northeast of Manitoba. Jets are in northwest of the province and in Saskatchewan. Surface H over the border of BC and the area. Both soundings are slightly unstable with subsidence inversion at 5 km and dry layer at 5-6 km. Ci, Cu hum-Cu cong, Fair weather Tmax YC = 22.9C and no rain. Tmax QF = 24C and no rain. Tmax Radar =22.8 C and no rain.
August 14,
Low is located north of the province. Jet is located
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Monday
north of the area. Weak PVA is forecasted in the area during night hours. Cold front is approaching the area from the northwest. Red Deer sounding is neutral. Calgary sounding is dry and unstable, with high cloud bases. Cu hum-Cu med during day hours. Cu cong, light showers during night hours. Tmax YC = 25.5C and no rain. Tmax QF =25.9 C and no rain. Tmax Radar =24.7 C and no rain.
August 15, Tuesday
Low is located north of Alberta. Cold front has passed the area. Jet is north of the area. Weak PVA is in the area. Both soundings are slightly unstable with dry layer from 4 to 7 km. Scattered thundershowers began to develop along foothills beginning 1930Z. Most of the storms were in the south half of the project area. Thundershowers lasted over the area through the night. Max cell top= 8.5 km, 50 max dBZ, 7.4 max VIL. Tmax YC = 21.2 C with a trace of rain. Tmax QF = 19.2 C with a trace of rain. Tmax Radar = 17.6 C with 0.3 mm rain in auto station and 2.9 mm in wedge gauge Wednesday morning.
HS2 was launched at 0019Z for patrolling and possible seeding cells over Calgary area. HS2 was airborne at 0039Z. HS2 RTB at 0144Z with no strong convection in area. No seeding was conducted. Flight summary HS2: 0037-0157Z: Patrol W Calgary.
August 16, Wednesday
Upper jet over Idaho and central Montana. Upper low over northern SK with trof to SW through southern AB into Oregon. Little PVA streak over S project area during afternoon along with slight positive vertical velocities. Atmosphere is cold aloft and little surface heating produces moderate instability. Thunderstorms during the day from 19Z to 01Z in the west buffer and NW project area. Light rain over the rest of the project during the afternoon. Max cell top= 9.5 km, 52 max dBZ, 13.8 max VIL. Environment Canada reported marble size hail (1.2 cm) and a brief tornado touchdown near Rocky Mountain House. Tmax YC = 18.6 C with 0.2 mm rain. Tmax QF = 21.4 C with a trace of rain. Tmax Radar = 19.4 C with 2.3 mm rain in auto station and 0.3 mm in wedge gauge Thursday morning.
August 17, Thursday
Jet from western Montana to NE into northern ON. Upper ridge along BC/AB border, dominating weather in project area. NVA shown over project area with positive vertical velocities over the mountains. Atmosphere is mostly stable with subsidence at 550 mb and strong warming. Sunny, nice day with lots of fair weather Cu and Ci, Ac. TCU reported in Calgary at 22Z and 01Z. Tmax YC = 23.9 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 23.6 C and no rain.
August 18, Friday
Ridge axis moved east over central SK, with upper Low behind along northern AB border. Jets on west
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and east side of ridge: northern BC/AB and northern MB, with weak jet over central BC pushing into project area overnight. Little PVA and positive vertical velocities over area with strongest just NW of project area. Surface low in NE AB with cold front to SW into northern project regions by evening. Strong surface heating producing good instability. Another sunny, nice warm day. Weak convection showers in the Sundre and Caroline area from 21Z to 22Z. Tmax YC = 27.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 26.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 26.9 C and no rain. August 19, Saturday Weak jet over central AB and SK. Ridge over western BC with nearly zonal flow over AB, SK and MB. Strong PVA in central AB with weak PVA over project; however strong positive vertical velocities shown over project area. Atmosphere is more unstable in the south project area than in the north. First little TS developed W of Caroline and lasted from 2130Z to 22Z. Cold front tracked across the area late afternoon bringing big TSGR from 23Z to 0330Z. Cu cong Cb were developing; lightning and hail up to 1 cm were reported at the Red Deer airport. Environment Canada reported marble size hail (1.5 cm) and nickel size hail (2.2 cm). Jim Renick reported quarter size hail (2.5 cm) in Red Deer and Three Hills. Max cell top= 12.5 km, 57 max dBZ, 17.9 max VIL. Tmax YC = 27.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.8 C with 5.6 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 24.0 C with 2.3 mm rain in auto station and 1.0 mm in wedge gauge Sunday morning. HS3 was launched at 2350Z to RMH at cloud top. HS3 was airborne at 0001Z. HS3 started seeding Storm #1 at 0020Z northwest of Red Deer at cloud top. HS3 descent at 0027Z due to icing and continued base seeding. HS3 stopped seeding Storm#1 at 0116Z as the storm had passed Red Deer and moved to the east. HS3 patrolled and started base seeding of Storm#3 west of Sundre at 0206Z. HS3 climbed at 0230Z and continued top seeding as HS2 approached to seed at cloud base. HS3 stopped seeding at 0306Z as the storm had diminished and crossed Hightway 2. HS3 RTB at 0320Z. HS2 was launched at 0045Z to storm #2 south of Didsbury at cloud base. HS2 was airborne at 0102Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #2 at 0110Z North of Airdrie. HS2 stopped seeding Storm#2 at 0215Z as the storm had left the area and did not threaten Strathmore. HS2 patrolled West of Airdrie and started seeding Storm #3 at cloud base at 0232Z. HS2 stopped seeding and patrolled at 0315Z as the storm had diminished. HS2 RTB at 0359Z. Flight summary HS3: 0001-0320Z: 101EJT, 18 BIP; Storm #1 Red Deer, Storm #3 Sundre. HS2: 0102-0359Z: 6 BIP; 212 min of acetone generator time, Storm #2, Didsbury,; Storm #3 Sundre -Carstairs. WEEK No.13 Weather NW to SE jet over SK. Ridge axis over eastern BC. PVA streak slides through project in late afternoon. Low-level positive vertical velocities but subsidence at 500 mb. Surface high located along central AB/SK border. Atmosphere is unstable but good convective inhibition and mid level warming. Sunny and nice day with hardly any clouds in the sky. Tmax YC = 24.1 C with a trace rain in the early morning. Tmax QF = 23.9 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 23.5 C and 0.3 mm rain in the early morning. August 21, Weak jet over northern BC. Ridge axis now over AB. No aircraft operations
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Monday
Short wave passes over project during evening hours. Low-level negative vertical velocities over project. Atmosphere has good instability but stronger capping inversion and more inhibition than yesterday, plus very little moisture about 700 mb. Another nice and sunny day with few Ci clouds. Haze and smoke over the project from forest fires. Tmax YC = 30.5 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 26.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 29.4 C and no rain.
August 22, Tuesday
Ridge axis has moved to E and now is located over SK province. High level Low-pressure center is over N border of BC. Weak cold front is approaching to the target area from NW. Short wave trough is located over AB province. Both sounding are extremely unstable and very humid. Daytime mid-level cloudiness from passing warm front. In the evening thunderstorms associated with the approaching cold front from BC caused thundershowers west of Calgary, but these decayed to become weak showers by the time they passed over Calgary around 04Z. Tmax YC = 29.8 C with a trace of rain. Tmax QF = 28.7 C with 0.8 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 26.4 C and no rain.
August 23, Wednesday
High-pressure ridge still moving to E and now its axis is located over the border between SK and MB provinces. Trough is approaching to the target area from W. Two surface Low-pressure centers are located over central part of AB province. The frontal system, which passed area yesterday is now located over SE border of AB. Both soundings are unstable and very humid. Ns-Cb developed in the area with moderate rainshowers. Storm #1 developed west of Cremona and tracked across the area north of Airdrie HS2 reported that the ground west of Airdrie was covered with hail. Environment Canada reported nickel size hail. Max tops 10.5 km, 52 dBz, max VIL 16.8 kg/m3 Tmax YC = 18.4 C with 3.2 mm rain. Tmax QF = 16.0 C with 3.2 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 17.3 C with 10.2 mm rain in auto station and 12.5 mm in wedge gauge.
Public Relations: Jim Renick and Dave Johnson interviewed by The Weather Network in Calgary. HS2 was launched at 2244Z to storm #1 north of Cochrane at cloud base. HS2 was airborne at 2306 Z. HS2 started seeding Storm #1 at 2314Z. HS2 stopped seeding Storm#2 at 0012Z as the storm had diminished. HS2 patrolled and RTB at 0112Z. Flight summary HS2: 2306-0112Z: 5 BIP; 116 min of acetone generator time; Storm 1 Airdrie.
August 24, Thursday
Short wave trough has formed over the border between BC and AB provinces. Surface High-pressure center is located over the target area. Jet PVA core is over N border of AB province. Both soundings are unstable but not very humid. Rain showers with thunder. No titan cells. Tmax YC = 21.6 C with 0.4 mm rain. Tmax QF = 21.5 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 20.1 C with 0.6 mm in wedge gauge.
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August 25, Friday
Upper level ridge is forming over BC and AB provinces and moving over project area for next few days. Surface High-pressure center is located over the target area. Both soundings are slightly unstable. Air mass has become drier and warmer aloft. Sunny nice day, with fair weather Cu, Ac, Ci. Tmax YC = 21.9 C with a trace rain in the early morning. Tmax QF = 20.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 21.1C and no rain.
No aircraft operations. Radar radome painted.
August 26, Saturday
Upper level ridge remains located over BC and AB provinces, but ridge axis has moved to W. Weak short wave trough has formed W of target area. Surface High-pressure center is over SK. Both sounding show subsidence inversions at low level. Another sunny, warm, nice day, with fair weather Cu, Ac, Ci. Tmax YC = 25.8 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.0 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 25.1 C and no rain.
WEEK No.14 Weather Upper level ridge and surface High-pressure center slowly move to the east over AB province. Ridge dominates over the target area, capping all convection. Both soundings have subsidence inversion at low level. Another nice, warm sunny day with Cu, Ac and Ci clouds. Tmax YC = 28.0 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27.0 C and no rain. Tmax Radar =26.7 C and no rain.
August 28, Monday
Low is located northwest of BC. Upper level ridge moved to the border between AB and Saskatchewan. Surface Low is northwest of the province. Cold front is in BC. Soundings are unstable with inversion cap and dry layers, which should prevent convection. Another nice, sunny, warm day with Ci and some Ac clouds. Haze and smoke over project area from forest fires. Tmax YC = 30.3 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 30 C and no rain. Tmax Radar =29.3 C and no rain.
August 29, Tuesday
Low is over the northern part of BC. Surface Low is over northeastern part of the province. Cold front is approaching the area. Jet is in the area. PVA is in the area. Both soundings are unstable with inversion cap at lower levels. Cloudy and cooler, with Ci, Ac, Cb clouds. Multiple
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bands of rain passed through project area. Thunderstorms in west buffer over mountains during late afternoon and thundershowers over NW project corner in evening. One thunderstorm moved over Caroline and Eckville areas during evening, from 0320Z to 05Z. Max cell top= 9.5 km, 51 max dBZ, 7.5 max VIL. Tmax YC =20.8 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 20.2 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 18.4 C and no rain. August 30, Wednesday Low is northwest of BC. Surface Low is in the northwestern part of Saskatchewan. Cold front is in the area. Jet is southeast of the area. PVA is in the area. Calgary sounding is more unstable than Red Deers Overcast and cool, with areas of rain. Mostly Ac and Sc clouds with some embedded TCU. Thunder and lightning observed in the morning hours. Snow in the mountains. Tmax YC =15 C with 0.6 mm rain. Tmax QF = 13.5C with 8.8 mm rain. Tmax Radar =12.6 C with 5.8 mm rain in auto station and 6.5 mm in wedge gauge. Low is northwest of BC. Upper level ridge is in BC. Surface Low with a cold front, which passed our province is in Manitoba. Jet is in the province. PVA is forecasted in the area. Both soundings are unstable. Ac, Sc, Cu cong-Cb, thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and cool, with scattered popcorn type cumulus and a few heavier rain showers, some producing lightning. Tmax YC =16.7 C and 1.6 mm rain. Tmax QF = 16.2 C and 0.4 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 14.8 C and 0.5mm rain (in wedge gauge). September 1, Friday Low is northwest of BC. Jet is in Saskatchewan. Warm front is in the north of the province. High level ridge is in the province. Both soundings are stable. Sunny and warm fair weather with a few Ci clouds. Tmax YC =21.1 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 21C and no rain. Tmax Radar =21.1 C and no rain. September 2, Saturday Low is northwest of BC. Jet is north of the province. Warm front is north of the province. High level ridge is in the province. Both soundings are stable. Sunny, nice and warm. Very few Ci and Ac clouds. Tmax YC = 28.7 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 27.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 27.6 C and no rain. No aircraft operations. No aircraft operations. No aircraft operations.
August 31, Thursday
No aircraft operations. Public Relations: T. Krauss interviewed by Cindy White of 660AM News radio in Calgary about the Anniversary of the Sept 7, 1991 severe hailstorm.
Date September 3,
WEEK No.15 Weather Jet over southern NW Territories. Upper high

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Sunday
pressure ridge dominating western Canada. NVA over project during afternoon with little PVA streak sliding through overnight and into Monday morning. Atmosphere has some instability, but is dry with a strong cap/inversion and lots of inhibition. Another sunny, nice and warm day. Few Ci, Ac and Cu clouds reported. Tmax YC = 29.1 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 26.8 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 26.4 C and no rain.
September 4, Monday
Jet over SE NW Territories and northern MB. Ridge axis tightening a little but still dominating the weather in western Canada. Little PVA to east of project, and NVA to north of project area. Atmosphere has some instability but is still dry with a strong cap/inversion and lots of inhibition. Another sunny, nice and warm day. Few Ci, Ac and Cu. Also light haze and smoke from forest fires. Record daily high temperatures set at several locations across Alberta. Tmax YC = 30.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 28.4 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 30.4 C and no rain.
September 5, Tuesday
Jet pushing in from west off AK coast. Ridge axis remains over AB. Mostly NVA over project area during afternoon. Atmosphere continues to have some instability with strong cap/inversion and good inhibition, but more moisture than previous days. Multiple TCUs with virga in the morning. Mostly sunny, nice and warm day, with some Ci and Ac clouds and light haze and smoke. Thundershowers in the west buffer over the mountains from 2030Z to 00Z, with only virga in project area from these storms west of Cremona. Tmax YC = 30.0 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 28.9 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 28.8 C and no rain.
September 6, Wednesday
Strong Jet remains off AK coast with a weaker jet over northern AB to central MB. Ridge axis has moved west and is now along AB/BC border. A little PVA and positive vertical velocities over mountains today. The atmosphere has good instability but still a strong cap/inversion and inhibition. Sunny, nice and warm day with Ac, Ci, Cu and some TCU clouds. Also light smoke over project area. Tmax YC = 27.4 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.6 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.8 C and no rain.
No aircraft operations. Thailand delegation visits Calgary office.
September 7, Thursday
SW to NE Jet off BC coast with weaker jet over southern SK into MB. Ridge axis over western AB. Little PVA streak moves through just to north of project area with positive vertical velocities over project during afternoon. Strong surface high in
Thailand delegation visits radar. HS3 flew from Red Deer to the Olds-Didsbury airport in the morning for the Thai delegates visit to the radar. HS3 returned to Red Deer after the briefing.
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northern SK, giving SE winds over area. The atmosphere is unstable along foothills but mostly stable over rest of project with a cap/inversion and good inhibition. Another mostly sunny and nice day with continued smoke over area. SHRA to the south and west of project area from 21Z to 03Z. Then a few SHRA in SE project from 0330Z to 0530Z. Tmax YC = 25.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 23.3 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.9 C and no rain. September 8, Friday S to N jet over central BC. Broad ridge over AB and SK with deep trof along BC and WA coast. Mostly NVA over project with some positive vertical velocities over mountains. The atmosphere is mostly stable with a cap/inversion and inhibition. Sunny and warm, with smoke obscuring the mtns. A few Ci, and AC clouds. Tmax YC =26.6 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.7 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 24.9 C and no rain. September 9, Saturday Upper level ridge is located over SK province. Ridges axis is directed from N to S. Upper High-pressure center is over north part of SK. Weak short wave trough has formed over the border between AB and BC provinces. Jet PVA core is located W of the target area and directed strongly from W to E. Both soundings are unstable with a small cap/inversion at 650 mb level. Mountain thundershowers formed over the mountains and moved into the project area but dissipated quickly. Max top 11.5 km, 52 dBZ, 20.6 VIL in W buffer zone. A weak shower reached YC in the afternoon. Otherwise, continued smoke over project area, with warm and mostly sunny conditions. Weak thunderstorms crossed the project area early Sunday morning, but were not a hail threat. Tmax YC = 28.2 C and trace of rain. Tmax QF = 26.9 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 27.1 C and no rain.
Flight summary HS3: 1602-1615: 1 BIP; Red Deer to Olds. HS3: 1912-1929: Olds to Red Deer.
Date September 10, Sunday
WEEK No.16 Weather Upper level ridge remained east of AB over SK and MB provinces. Surface Low-pressure center is located over the border between AB and SK. Cold front has passed over the area yesterday and now it is located south of AB province. Both soundings are slightly unstable. Early morning activity over the north part of target area. Some weak echo and isolated thunderstorms over the Red Deer area. Mainly sunny weather and some weak echo without Titan tracks in the afternoon.
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Tmax YC = 23.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 21.2 C and trace of rain. Tmax Radar = 20.4 C and no rain. September 11, Monday Weak short wave trough remains moving to E and now is located over SK province. Jet PVA core is over the north part of the target area. Surface Highpressure center is located S of AB province. Both soundings are slightly unstable. Mainly sunny weather. Few Ci, Ac and Cu clouds reported in project area. Thunderstorms to the north of project area, near Edmonton. Tmax YC = 26.6 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 25.7 C and no rain. Tmax Radar = 25.4 C and no rain. Public Relations: Jacob Siebelink from Reformatorisch/Dagblad daily paper in the Netherlands visited the radar and interviewed project personal. Also Mountain View County officials and agriculture specialists visited the radar in the afternoon. HS2 flew from Calgary to the Olds-Didsbury airport in the morning for the visits to the radar. HS2 returned to Calgary in the afternoon. Flight summary HS2: 1608-1627Z; Calgary to Olds. HS2: 2145-2202Z; Olds to Calgary. No aircraft operations
September 12, Tuesday
High-pressure center is located south of AB province. Main core of the jet PVA is west of target area and another one is east of AB. Both soundings are unstable and humid. Partly sunny and nice afternoon with Ci, Ac, Sc, Cu and TCU clouds. +TSRA north of project area during late afternoon near Edson and Drayton Valley. Cold front passed through project in evening causing a TS to develop north of Nordegg around 02Z. It moved SE and dissipated to a thundershower by 04Z in the north buffer, with more RA forming behind cold front in N project area. Tmax YC = 22.2 C and no rain. Tmax QF = 19.7 C with 1.0 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 20.5 C with 0.3 mm rain in auto station and 0.4 mm in wedge gauge.
September 13, Wednesday
Upper level trough has formed over BC and AB provinces. Surface Low-pressure center is located SW of the border between BC and AB. Cold front approaching the target area from the N. Both soundings are stable. Cool, cloudy and wet. Widespread rain throughout the project with isolated areas of stronger intensity showers. Less constant rain from 22Z to 07Z with some embedded Cu, then more widespread overnight. A few lightning strikes were detected. Tmax YC = 13.8 C with 24.0 mm rain. Tmax QF = 10.2 C with 9.8 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 9.0 C with 11.2 mm rain in auto station and 7.4 mm in wedge gauge.
September 14, Thursday
Upper level trough remains located over the border between BC and AB provinces. Low-pressure center is SW of AB. Weak secondary cold front is approaching to the target area from N. Both soundings are slightly unstable. Continued cool, cloudy and wet with easterly winds giving good upslope flow and snow along foothills. Widespread rain from morning lasting throughout the afternoon into night, then less widespread.
No aircraft operations. Public Relations A film crew called Creative Differences working for the Discovery Channel (U.S.) program Best Evidence interviewed Terry Krauss at the radar including film footage in the control room. They also visited the Red Deer Airport for film footage of HS3.
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Over 2 inches of rain reported at Gary Hillmans ranch south of Sylvan from Wednesday and Thursday rains. Light snow in Sundre, good snowfall amount in Bragg Creek and 5 inches of snow west of Rocky. Tmax YC = 7.4 C with 28.6 mm rain. Tmax QF = 8 C with 20.8 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 6.6 C with 58.9 mm rain in auto station and 41 mm in wedge gauge. September 15, Friday Low is located at the southwest of BC. Jet is in the project area. Surface trough is in the project area. Soundings are stable. Cloudy, cool and more rain and snow. Areas of light rain all day. Majority of project received some light snow accumulations Friday night. Total of 10 inches of snow Saturday morning 10 miles W of Sundre. Tmax YC = 4.1 C with 4.2 mm rain. Tmax QF = 7.5 C with 20.8 mm rain. Tmax Radar = 6.1 C with 16.8 mm rain in auto station and 13 mm in wedge gauge. September 16, Saturday END OF SEASON YEAR END PARTY. No aircraft operations.
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C.
AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FLIGHT SUMMARY 2006

190:13 hrs:min 4929 flares 703 flares 3489 min. 3489 963 1786 740 0
min EB FLARES ACETONE total AgI(gm)
Grand Total flight hrs.= ALBERTA AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FLIGHT SUMMARY 2006 Grand Total top flares= Ops days = 39 Grand Total base flares= Grand Total acetone=
TOTALS
gallons 145.4
98580 105450 9972 214002

STORMS = 65
54:00 21:08 22:10 10:42 0:00

HS1
3217 1240 1330 647 0

N747RE
179 63 67 49 0
70:12 27:16 31:20 11:00 0:36

HS2
72 0 72 0 0
N457DM
248 87 119 42 0
66:01 16:46 35:04 13:41 0:30

HS3
1640 100 1289 251 0

N911FG
276 63 134 78 1
June sub-totals July sub-total Aug. sub-total Sept. sub-total DATE Storm_Day
23 26 16 0 total AgI(gm)
214002
FLT TIME EJ FLARES EB FLARES
FLT TIME EJ FLARES
FLT TIME EJ FLARES EB FLARES
storms 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 1 1 4 2 1 1 0 0 6 1 1 1 1 4 0 0
Daily AgI (gm)
sum
01-Jun-06 02-Jun-06 07-Jun-06 10-Jun-06 11-Jun-06 13-Jun-06 16-Jun-06 17-Jun-06 18-Jun-06 19-Jun-06 20-Jun-06 21-Jun-06 22-Jun-06 26-Jun-06 27-Jun-06 30-Jun-06 01-Jul-06 02-Jul-06 06-Jul-06 07-Jul-06 09-Jul-06 10-Jul-06 11-Jul-06
01:32 00:49
1 0
0 1
01:26 01:28 01:07
0 0 0
1 0 0
10 0 0
01:28 01:01 01:19
0 2 0
1 0 0
02:05 02:58 01:27
0 101 191
4 0 7
03:35 02:13 02:43 03:09 05:24 03:34
0 0 0 0 0 0
16 3 0 14 24 22
66 213 53 164 160 105
03:41
01:54 01:35 02:20 01:49 00:53 03:46 01:50 01:31 02:08 02:53 00:52
242 0 289 130 0 286 302 0 276 303 0
9 1 16 8 0 17 14 0 15 15 0
02:13 02:51
0 98
15 15
02:37 02:33 02:25 00:58 02:58
0 0 0 0 0
7 25 14 0 24
192 265 198 0 291
01:11 03:02 03:58 02:28 02:13 02:05 03:45 00:51 00:14
0 0 99 70 0 135 274 0 0
0 26 8 7 0 13 21 0 0
349 190 0 0 600 2020 8359 1059 151 8440 2719 16447 7400 0 0 13769 15827 2450 10436 4650 21372 0 0
349 539 539 539 1139 3159 11517 12576 12727 21167 23886 40333 47734 47734 47734 61502 77330 79780 90216 94866 116237 116237 116237
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12-Jul-06 17-Jul-06 23-Jul-06 24-Jul-06 25-Jul-06 29-Jul-06 30-Jul-06 03-Aug-06 03-Aug-06 09-Aug-06 10-Aug-06 16-Aug-06 19-Aug-06 23-Aug-06 07-Sep-06 11-Sep-06
04:12 02:22 03:23 02:59
202 142 60 45
14 5 2 2
03:29 02:03 02:13 04:15 06:27 02:08 01:51 02:30 02:07 01:20 02:57 02:06 00:36
72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 10 4 10 16 13 0 26 5 0 6 5 0
0 158 146 166 402 160
03:15 04:52 02:35
303 235 109
21 17 11
246 166 0 212 116 0
02:37 02:03 01:11 02:38 03:50 02:08 03:16 01:47 03:08 03:29 03:45 03:19 00:30
0 306 0 79 0 204 122 0 150 0 0 101 0
9 17 0 1 21 9 14 14 18 24 18 18 1
3 2 1 3 5 1 2 1 4 4 4 0 3 1 0 0
3240 16762 4607 3704 8199 9037 4540 2100 19513 10850 7754 0 6226 1082 150
119477 136239 140846 144550 152749 161787 166327 168427 187940 198790 206544 206544 212770 213852 214002 214002
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D.
FLIGHT SUMMARY TABLE 2006

20 31 214002 gms seed amt # storms 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 2 1 1 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
ALBERTA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT 2006 Stock: 2097 440 24.6 count = 39 25 29 Operations Flights UTC UTC hr:mm number number minutes gallons hr:mm flights TOTALS = 92 190:13 4929 703 3489 145.4 Storm-Day Sub-totals Aircraf endDate (UTC) t Take-off Landing Duration eject burn acetone Type 190:13 4929 703 01-Jun-05 HS1 20:33 22:05 01:32 1 0 test 04:26 1 2 01-Jun-05 HS2 20:23 21:49 01:26 0 1 10 test 01-Jun-05 HS3 20:35 22:03 01:28 0 1 test 02-Jun-06 HS2 19:36 21:04 01:28 0 0 0 test 03:18 2 1 02-Jun-06 HS1 20:26 21:15 00:49 0 1 test 02-Jun-06 HS3 20:23 21:24 01:01 2 0 test 07-Jun-06 HS3 22:55 00:14 01:19 0 0 patrol 01:19 10-Jun-06 HS2 20:35 21:10 00:35 0 0 0 patrol 01:07 10-Jun-06 HS2 22:37 23:09 00:32 0 0 0 patrol 11-Jun-06 HS1 20:05 22:10 02:05 0 4 seed 02:05 4 14-Jun-06 HS1 04:32 07:30 02:58 101 0 seed 02:58 101 16-Jun-06 HS3 20:42 22:15 01:33 0 0 patrol 08:43 191 29 16-Jun-06 HS2 21:51 01:26 03:35 0 16 66 seed 17-Jun-06 HS1 00:41 02:08 01:27 191 7 seed 17-Jun-06 HS3 01:48 03:56 02:08 0 6 seed 17-Jun-06 HS2 21:49 00:02 02:13 0 3 213 seed 02:13 3 18-Jun-06 HS2 23:58 02:41 02:43 0 0 53 seed 02:43 19-Jun-06 HS1 21:21 23:15 01:54 242 9 seed 04:07 242 24 19-Jun-06 HS3 22:45 00:58 02:13 0 15 seed 20-Jun-06 HS2 20:03 23:12 03:09 0 14 164 seed 04:44 15 20-Jun-06 HS1 22:55 00:30 01:35 0 1 seed 21-Jun-06 HS2 20:14 23:54 03:40 0 13 86 seed 10:35 387 55 21-Jun-06 HS1 22:50 01:10 02:20 289 16 seed 21-Jun-06 HS3 23:36 02:27 02:51 98 15 seed 22-Jun-06 HS2 00:37 02:21 01:44 0 11 74 seed 22-Jun-06 HS2 20:12 23:46 03:34 0 22 105 seed 05:23 130 30 22-Jun-06 HS1 23:08 00:57 01:49 130 8 seed 26-Jun-06 HS1 19:26 19:51 00:25 0 0 0 test 00:53 26-Jun-06 HS1 21:26 21:39 00:13 0 0 0 test 26-Jun-06 HS1 23:18 23:33 00:15 0 0 0 test
145.4 3489 10
66
213 53
164 160
105
Seed Amt. Seed per flight Accum. per day 20 20 349 179 199 150 349 0 349 190 150 499 40 539 0 539 0 539 0 539 600 1139 600 2020 3159 2020 0 3159 8359 2589 5747 4870 10617 900 11517 1059 12576 1059 151 12727 151 6190 18917 8440 2250 21167 2569 23736 2719 150 23886 2196 26082 16447 8180 34262 4210 38472 1861 40333 3600 43934 7400 3800 47734 0 47734 0 47734 0 47734
Page: 134
27-Jun-06 HS3 30-Jun-06 HS1 30-Jun-06 HS2 30-Jun-06 HS3 01-Jul-06 HS1 01-Jul-06 HS2 01-Jul-06 HS3 02-Jul-06 HS1 02-Jul-06 HS3 06-Jul-06 HS1 07-Jul-06 HS2 07-Jul-06 HS3 07-Jul-06 HS2 07-Jul-06 HS2 07-Jul-06 HS3 09-Jul-06 HS1 09-Jul-06 HS2 09-Jul-06 HS3 10-Jul-06 HS3 11-Jul-06 HS1 11-Jul-06 HS3 11-Jul-06 HS1 12-Jul-06 HS2 12-Jul-06 HS2 13-Jul-06 HS3 17-Jul-06 HS3 17-Jul-06 HS2 17-Jul-06 HS1 23-Jul-06 HS1 23-Jul-06 HS2 23-Jul-06 HS3 24-Jul-06 HS2 25-Jul-06 HS3 25-Jul-06 HS1 25-Jul-06 HS2 25-Jul-06 HS3 26-Jul-06 HS2 29-Jul-06 HS3 29-Jul-06 HS2
23:59 20:52 22:57 23:19 19:49 20:19 21:12 20:46 23:15 23:27 00:14 01:10 19:42 20:42 22:18 19:51 20:50 21:18 03:36 18:53 20:19 20:59 14:18 20:50 01:23 21:14 21:45 22:13 22:00 23:09 23:34 23:10 01:42 20:13 21:26 23:27 03:07 23:30 23:57
01:10 00:38 01:34 02:21 21:39 22:52 01:10 22:17 01:43 01:35 02:39 03:23 20:07 21:15 00:23 22:44 23:48 01:03 04:27 19:19 20:33 21:25 14:45 23:52 04:00 23:17 23:48 02:25 00:22 01:22 00:45 03:25 04:20 23:36 23:58 03:17 07:02 01:14 02:05
01:11 03:46 02:37 03:02 01:50 02:33 03:58 01:31 02:28 02:08 02:25 02:13 00:25 00:33 02:05 02:53 02:58 03:45 00:51 00:26 00:14 00:26 00:27 03:02 02:37 02:03 02:03 04:12 02:22 02:13 01:11 04:15 02:38 03:23 02:32 03:50 03:55 01:44 02:08
0 286 0 0 302 0 99 0 70 276 0 0 0 0 135 303 0 274 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 306 0 202 142 0 0 0 79 60 0 0 0 204 0
0 17 7 26 14 25 8 0 7 15 14 0 0 0 13 15 24 21 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 17 10 14 5 4 0 10 1 2 9 21 7 9 13
192
265
198
291
158
146 166
250 152 160
patrol seed seed seed seed seed seed patrol seed seed seed patrol media media seed seed seed seed patrol test test test test seed seed seed seed seed seed seed patrol seed seed seed seed seed seed seed seed
01:11 09:25
286
50
192
08:21
401
47
265
03:59 06:46
70 276
7 29 198
03:03
135
13
09:36
577
60
291
00:51 01:06
06:06
72
12
08:18
508
41
158
05:46
142
146
06:53 13:40
79 60
11 39
166 402
07:15
October 2006
249
24
160
0 8270 1599 3900 8140 4507 3180 0 2450 7770 2666 0 0 0 4650 8310 4432 8630 0 0 0 0 0 1890 1350 8670 1952 6140 3590 1017 0 1974 1730 1500 2065 3150 1484 5430 2407
47734 56004 57602 61502 69642 74150 77330 77330 79780 87550 90216 90216 90216 90216 94866 103176 107607 116237 116237 116237 116237 116237 116237 118127 119477 128147 130099 136239 139829 140846 140846 142820 144550 146050 148115 151265 152749 158179 160587
13769
15827 inc inc 2450 10436 inc 4650
0 4 1 1 1
0 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 inc 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 inc 1 1 inc 0 2 1 1 inc 3 1 1 inc
21372
3240
16762
4607
3704 8199
9037
Page: 135
30-Jul-06 HS1 30-Jul-06 HS3 30-Jul-06 HS3 30-Jul-06 HS2 03-Aug-06 HS3 03-Aug-06 HS1 03-Aug-06 HS2 03-Aug-06 HS3 09-Aug-06 HS1 10-Aug-06 HS3 10-Aug-06 HS1 10-Aug-06 HS2 10-Aug-06 HS3 10-Aug-06 HS1 11-Aug-06 HS3 16-Aug-06 HS2 20-Aug-06 HS3 20-Aug-06 HS2 23-Aug-06 HS2 07-Sep-06 HS3 07-Sep-06 HS3 11-Sep-06 HS2 11-Sep-06 HS2
00:44 03:05 18:52 21:30 03:15 20:57 23:13 23:45 23:29 00:08 03:36 20:56 21:43 23:24 02:19 00:37 00:01 01:02 23:06 16:02 19:12 16:08 21:45
03:43 03:29 22:08 23:21 05:02 00:12 01:43 02:53 02:09 03:37 05:48 23:03 00:50 01:59 02:57 01:57 03:20 03:59 01:12 16:15 19:29 16:27 22:02
02:59 00:24 03:16 01:51 01:47 03:15 02:30 03:08 02:40 03:29 02:12 02:07 03:07 02:35 00:38 01:20 03:19 02:57 02:06 00:13 00:17 00:19 00:17
45 0 122 0 0 303 0 150 0 0 235 0 0 109 0 0 101 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 14 0 14 21 26 18 7 24 10 5 18 11 0 0 18 6 5 1 0 0 0
246
166
0 212 116
0 0
seed patrol seed patrol seed seed seed seed seed seed seed seed seed seed patrol patrol seed seed seed marketi ng marketi ng P.R. P.R.
05:07 01:47 08:53
122 0 453
14 14 65
246
08:21
235
41
08:27
109
34
166
01:20 06:16 02:06 00:30
101
24 5 1
212 116
1200 0 4540 0 2100 9210 4603 5700 1050 3600 6200 1224 2700 3830 0 0 4720 1506 1082 150 0 0 0
161787 inc 161787 166327 4540 166327 168427 2100 177637 19513 182240 inc 187940 188990 10850 192590 198790 200014 7754 202714 206544 206544 206544 211264 6226 212770 213852 1082 214002 214002 214002 214002 150
0 2 0 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 0
00:36
October 2006
Page: 136
E.
FORMS
October 2006
Page: 137
SATELLITE & MAP INTERPRETATION
DATE Forecaster SYNOPSIS
OPERATIONAL INFORMATION FORECAST: FCST CDC: Freezing Level: -5 C: -10 C: Max Cloud Top Height: Tmax: Dew Pt: Tconv:
FORECAST
HAILCAST MODEL FCST Hail Dia (cm): ACTUAL WX OBSERVED
CDC
CDC
Cloud Base Height/Temp: Cell Motion: Storm Motion: Outlook CDC: SOUNDINGS: LI: SI: TOTAL TOTALS: Precip. Water (in): CAPE (J/kg):
SKC FEW SCT BKN OVC CLR CAVOK Summation coverage nil cloud < 2/8 3/8 to 4/8 5/8 to 7/8 8/8 nil cloud < 10,000 (auto) > 6 sm, no CB, no sig wx, nil cld < 5000 or below highest min sector altitude MI BC PR DR BL SH TS FZ VC FC +FC Weather nature Shallow (FG) Patches (FG) Partial (FG) Drifting Blowing Showers Thunder Freezing Vicinity Funnel cld Tornado/ Waterspout
jet PVA short wave trof
latent instability loaded gun chinook cloud cover gusty winds wind shear Dry Slot or Line NE moisture advection other:
Obscuration type Mist (> 5/8 sm) Fog (< 5/8 sm) Smoke (< 6sm) Volcanic ash (any vsby) Dust (< 6sm) Sand (< 6sm) Haze (< 6sm) Dust whirls Squalls Sandstorm (< 5/8 sm) Sandstorm (< 5/16 sm) Duststorm (< 5/8 sm) Duststorm (< 5/16 sm)
WINDS
250 mb
thickness advection insolation upslope flow
500 mb 600 mb 700 mb 850 mb
frontal lift night radiation cooling morning fog morning ACC or cloud street
Sfc
DZ RA SN SG IC PL GR GS UP Precipitation type Drizzle Rain Snow Snow grains (never showery) Ice crystals (< 6sm) Ice pellets (frozen rain) Hail Snow pellets (showery) Unknown (auto) GRADU >1/2hr TEMPO <1 hr RAPID <1/2hr INTER <<1hr BR FG FU VA DU SA HZ PO SQ SS +SS DS +DS
October 2006
Page: 138
WMI Radar Observer Log
October 2006
Page: 139
WMI Seeding Aircraft Flight Log
October 2006
Page: 140
F.
SPECIFICATIONS FOR PIPER CHEYENNE II AIRCRAFT Full deicing capabilities Power Type, Turboprop twin engine PT6A-28 engines 9000 lbs gross weight 5018 lbs empty weight 3982 lbs useful load 620 hp per engine 283 kts max speed 269 kts recommended cruise 75 kts stall dirty 382 gals fuel capacity 31,600 feet all engine service ceiling 14,600 feet single engine service ceiling 2,710 feet per minute all engine rate of climb 660 feet per minute single engine rate of climb 1980 feet for take off over 50 foot obstruction 1410 feet for take off ground roll 2480 feet land over 50 foot obstruction 1430 foot land ground roll 34 ft. 8 in. length 12 ft. 9 in. height 42 ft. 8 in. wingspan
October 2006
Page: 141
G.
SPECIFICATIONS FOR BEECHCRAFT KING AIR C90 AIRCRAFT
Full deicing capabilities Power Type, Turboprop twin engine PT6A-21 engines 9650 lbs gross weight 6382 lbs empty weight 3268 lbs useful load 550 hp per engine 208 kts max speed 185 kts recommended cruise 74 kts dirty stall 384 gals fuel capacity 30,000 feet all engine service ceiling 14,200 single engine service ceiling 1500 feet per minute all engine rate of climb 350 feet per minute single engine rate of climb 3100 for take off over a 50 foot obstruction 2250 feet take off roll 1730 feet for landing over 50 foot obstacle 800 foot landing roll 35 ft 6 in length 14 ft 3 in height 50 ft 3 in wingspan
October 2006
Page: 142
H.
SPECIFICATIONS FOR CESSNA C-340 AIRCRAFT Power Type, Turbocharged piston twin engine 6290 lbs gross weight 4184 lbs empty weight 1802 lbs useful load 310 hp per engine 280 mph max speed 263 mph rec. cruise 82 mph stall dirty 183 - 203 gals fuel capacity 29,800 feet all engine service ceiling 15,800 feet single engine service ceiling 1650 feet per minute all engine rate of climb 315 feet per minute single engine rate of climb 2175 feet for take off over 50 foot obstruction 1615 feet for take off ground roll 1850 feet land over 50 foot obstruction 770 foot land ground roll 34 ft. 4 in. length 12 ft. 7 in. height 38 ft. 1 in. wingspan
October 2006
Page: 143
I.
GROUND SCHOOL AGENDA
ALBERTA HAIL DAMAGE MITIGATION PROJECT 2006

Economical Insurance Banff Conference Room 801 - 6th Ave. SW Suite 2700 Calgary, AB
Tuesday, May 30th , 2006 8:30 Assembly of personnel and coffee in the Banff Conference Room. 8.45 Terry Krauss (Project Manager) - Welcome and staff introductions Jim Sweeney (Vice-President, WMI) 9:00 Jim Renick (Project Director) - Program overview 9:30 Terry Krauss: Summary of 1996-2005 Operations 10:00 Break 10:20 Bruce Boe The Hail Problem and Status of Hail Mitigation Concepts Discussion session 11:30 Jason Goehring - Meteorological data sources and severe weather forecasting 12:00 Lunch break 1:00 ATC controlling procedures - Nav-Canada Mr. Darrel Kuzio - Edmonton Control Centre Mr. Brent Lopushinsky Calgary Tower 2:00 Hans Ahlness - Aviation weather and special procedures Cloud seeding aircraft and equipment Targetting and seeding rates Storm tracking and directing cloud seeding aircraft from the radar 3:00 Break 3:30 Gary Hillman - Aircraft maintenance procedures Terry Krauss and Bruce Boe - Duties and responsibilitiesDaily routines and procedures Communication and reporting Meteorological Data Aircraft Flight Forms Cloud Seeding Chemical Inventory Daily Storm Summaries Weekly and Monthly Summaries Safety and emergency procedures Teamwork Discussions 5:00 end of Day 1 ground school 6:30 Evening social "ice-breaker" and Dinner Saltlik Restaurant Calgary, Downstairs Party Room: 101-8th ave SW, Calgary
Wednesday, 31 May 2006 10:00 Visit & Set up WMI-Calgary airport office at Morgan Air
840 McTavish Road NE, Calgary, AB T2E 7G6
Afternoon:
Set up Calgary, Olds-Didsbury, and Red Deer offices.
October 2006
Page: 144
J.
WMI AIRBORNE GENERATOR SEEDING SOLUTION

Chemical Formulation: 2% AgI - 0.5 NH4I - 0.1 C6H4Cl2 - 1.0 NaClO4 Recommended Burn Rate: ~2.0 gph Nucleation Mechanism: Condensation Freezing Total Solution Weight: 33.5 lbs. Volume: ~ 5.0 gallons, (20 liters) scale for other amounts Seeding Aerosol: AgI0.85AgCl0.15NaCl Chemical Formulati on AgI NH4I C6H4Cl2 NaClO4 Molecular Wt.(g/mole) 234.77 144.94 147.00 140.48 Mass (g) Weight (lb.) 0.67 0.21 0.042 0.40 Volume (gal) n/a n/a n/a n/a
Constituent
Silver Iodide Ammonium Iodide Paradichlorobenzene Sodium Perchlorate, 99% Water Acetone
304.2 93.9 19.0 181.8
H2O (CH3)2CO
17.99 58.08
607.7 or less 13985.5
1.34 30.84
0.202 4.645
Note: Sodium Perchlorate, anhydrous can be utilized in the formula by adjusting the weight or mass to include 0.34 lb or 158.1 g respectively, although proper handling becomes more difficult. Water amounts should be increased to 1.40 lb or 630 g (0.21 gal). NOTE: Use 2.4 urinal pucks (85 gram Paradichloro-benzene) for 205 litre barrel of acetone. Mixing procedures are as follows: 1.) Combine AgI and acetone in a 5 gallon container and begin stirring; 2.) Combine ammonium iodide, sodium perchlorate and water in another small container and stir until the solution is clear and cool (caution the perchlorate is a strong oxidizer and needs to be done at room temperatures, don't do this in a hot hanger) 3.) Add the ammonium iodide, sodium perchlorate and water mixture to the stirring silver iodide/acetone slurry; 4.) Continue mixing until the solution is clear; 5.) Add the paradichlorobenzene anytime after you have added container #2 and the solution is beginning to clear; 6.) Continue mixing for another 10 minutes until very clear; and 7.) Pump the solution into the aircraft generator immediately after mixing or store in an appropriate labled sealed container. Storage containers can be either stainless or plastic (polypropelyene). Supplier: Solution Blend Service, 2720 7th Avenue N.E., Calgary, AB, T2A 5G6 403-207-9840
October 2006
Page: 145
K.
Date 2006
DAILY METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST STATISTICS 2006

FCS Preci 0C -5C -10C Cloud Cloud Maxi Temp. Dew Conv CAPE Total Lifted Show Cell Cell Storm Storm Low Low Mid Mid High T p. Level Level Level Base Base mum Maxi Point Temp (J/kg) Totals Index alter Direct Speed Direct Speed Level Level Level Level Level CDC Water (kft) (kft) (kft) Heigh Temp Cloud mum (C) (C) ion knots ion knots Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind (in) t (kft) (C) Top (C) (deg) (deg) Direct Speed Direct Speed Direct Heigh ion knots ion knots ion t (kft) (deg) (deg) (deg) 0 0.74 11.9 14.1 16.2 11.4 1.5 26 26 8.6 25.0 286 54.0 -2.3 -1.6 260 20 280 12 210 13 270 20 275 -1 0.73 12.9 14.8 17.2 13.2 -1 29 27 7 26.0 262 54.0 -1.9 -1.7 235 15 260 15 250 10 225 30 220 -2 0.35 11.2 12.9 14.5 12.4 -3.4 18 24 6 22.4 228 54.5 -2.3 -1.3 270 40 297 26 280 20 260 50 250 -1 0.75 11.5 13.2 16.2 11.3 0.5 21 22 5 18.0 224 53.0 -1.1 -1.1 255 20 270 15 250 20 245 20 210 -1 0.61 10.2 12 14.3 11.1 -2.4 20 21 4 21.0 106 53.0 -1.1 -0.2 265 30 290 22 260 15 260 45 265 -2 0.51 10.6 12.7 14.8 11.6 -2.6 18 20 3 20.0 66 50.5 0.7 0.9 260 30 290 20 255 10 265 40 260 0 0.84 12.1 14.7 17.3 9.8 4.7 30 22 9 21.0 308 52.8 -1.6 -1.5 240 20 260 14 190 20 250 30 245 -1 1.03 11.7 14.8 17.8 5.7 10 15 15 12 15.0 45 46.5 0.9 1 200 12 225 10 185 10 210 15 200 -2 0.64 9.5 12.9 16 7.1 4.7 11 13 8 10.0 29 46.5 2.8 2.8 250 10 270 5 300 5 220 10 210 -1 0.59 8.9 11 13.7 7.8 3 18 18 7 13.0 171 51.0 0.4 0.9 335 20 5 10 355 20 325 20 330 0 0.64 9.4 12 14.6 7.7 5.1 29 16 8.2 12.5 632 57.1 -3 -3 345 5 360 10 70 8 210 6 245 -1 0.87 10.8 13.9 16.7 7.4 6.5 16.3 19 10 18.0 49 48.4 0.7 1.2 235 20 250 10 190 15 240 20 250 0 0.94 13.2 15.6 17.9 9.4 7.1 34.9 22 10 20.9 367 53.4 -2.4 -2.6 170 20 200 20 155 25 175 30 210 1 0.81 12.4 14.9 17.5 8.5 8.6 35.6 22 13 20.7 1116 56.3 -4.2 -4.5 175 10 195 10 200 5 140 10 150 0 0.91 11.1 13.9 16.7 5.9 10.3 30.4 16 14 16.0 418 52.6 -2.1 -2.7 360 30 25 20 345 35 5 20 30 0 0.70 11.2 13.4 16 8.6 6.4 27.7 19 12 20.4 344 52.7 -1.7 -1.7 285 20 300 15 280 25 255 20 260 1 0.60 10.6 12.2 14.2 10.7 2.1 27 20 10 20.0 857 60.0 -4.9 -4.3 313 21 328 11 306 15 289 16 175 0 0.60 10.9 12.4 15.1 10.5 1 20 20 6 20.0 425 55.0 -1.8 -1.5 252 11 257 9 245 7 225 18 210 2 0.63 11.1 12.7 14.6 10.1 2.8 33 21 10 21.0 1299 59.8 -5.2 -4.4 269 10 267 8 216 3 295 17 213 1 0.68 11 12.5 14.5 9.6 4 30 20 8 19.9 1350 63.0 -6.3 -6.5 327 22 357 14 332 25 329 17 290 1 0.66 10.5 12.5 15 9.3 3.4 31 20 8 19.9 710 56.8 -3.4 -2.7 294 15 317 9 287 10 284 16 295 1 0.70 10.3 12.6 15 8.8 4.8 31 19.2 9 19.1 775 57.2 -3.8 -3.1 267 17 296 11 273 12 264 21 270 0 0.57 10.3 12.4 15.1 8.8 4.2 27 20 8 17.0 377 53.5 -1.7 -1.1 300 25 342 15 310 15 315 25 320 -3 0.74 12.2 15.2 18.3 9.5 6.8 23 25 11 21.0 261 50.0 -0.9 -0.4 290 20 315 10 275 15 295 25 315 1 0.87 12.8 15.6 18.5 9 9.3 38 25.5 14 23.0 1151 53.7 -3.6 -2.9 325 25 354 14 315 15 325 25 330 -2 0.82 14.1 16.8 19.5 8.8 11.2 40 27 15 26.0 1998 53.7 -4.3 -3.7 325 14 36 15 285 10 345 20 310 -2 0.91 14.4 16.5 19 10.8 7 39 29 16 30.0 1185 57.1 -3.4 -5.2 245 20 295 10 230 15 245 20 260 0 1.03 13.7 16.2 19.1 10.3 7.3 38 29 16 28.0 942 53.4 -2.7 -2.7 235 28 265 15 215 20 245 30 250 -2 0.72 12.2 15.3 18.4 9.7 4.9 17.1 20 10 21.1 13 47.7 1.3 1 270 30 295 20 275 10 265 40 250 1 0.88 12.2 14.9 17.6 9.4 7.2 34.7 24 14 22.7 942 54.9 -3.4 -3.2 295 25 318 18 295 20 290 35 255 High Obser Level ved Wind CDC Speed knots 59 45 45 35 95 100 85 45 60 25 30 60 55 65 25 40 9 26 45 21 37 36 70 40 35 25 25 40 65 45 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 -2 -2 -2 1 -2 -3 2
1-Jun 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun 18-Jun 19-Jun 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 27-Jun 28-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun
October 2006
Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report Date 2006
Page: 146 High Obser Level ved Wind CDC Speed knots 30 40 15 15 61 51 62 35 25 44 50 60 90 115 85 70 75 70 50 60 35 60 40 33 30 63 52 44 90 100 45 2 1 1 -2 0 4 1 -3 5 1 0 4 0 -1 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 1 1 -1 1 3 5 3 0
1-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 8-Jul 9-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul 14-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul
FCS Preci 0C -5C -10C Cloud Cloud Maxi Temp. Dew Conv CAPE Total Lifted Show Cell Cell Storm Storm Low Low Mid Mid High T p. Level Level Level Base Base mum Maxi Point Temp (J/kg) Totals Index alter Direct Speed Direct Speed Level Level Level Level Level CDC Water (kft) (kft) (kft) Heigh Temp Cloud mum (C) (C) ion knots ion knots Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind (in) t (kft) (C) Top (C) (deg) (deg) Direct Speed Direct Speed Direct Heigh ion knots ion knots ion t (kft) (deg) (deg) (deg) 2 0.80 12.3 14.6 17.1 10 6.4 35.3 25 14 23.9 1249 58.0 -4.6 -4.7 305 25 335 15 303 15 307 25 272 2 0.84 12.6 14.9 17.7 10.1 7.1 37.2 26 14 23.5 1512 57.8 -4.6 -5 315 15 335 10 320 10 295 20 290 1 0.79 13.5 15.4 17.6 10.7 6.4 37.5 27 12 28.0 1338 58.9 -5 -5.3 295 10 315 6 280 6 270 10 280 0 0.84 14 16.1 18.6 11.5 6.2 39.8 29 12 28.6 1194 56.9 -4.3 -4.2 240 3 250 4 205 5 265 5 225 2 1.06 14 16.5 19 11 7.2 38 29 15 29.0 1303 56.4 -4.2 -4.4 260 10 266 8 196 8 257 16 231 4 1.10 13.4 15.9 18.6 9.5 10 38 27 16 27.0 1717 59.2 -5.7 -6.8 258 13 264 9 263 8 237 17 224 0 0.72 12.1 14.8 17.3 10.5 3.4 27 24 10 24.0 162 52.6 -1.3 -1.3 287 35 313 22 265 21 284 40 310 -2 1.10 13.3 16.4 19.2 9.3 6.8 16 25 10 26.7 45 49.7 -0.1 -0.8 284 24 312 15 301 18 277 31 277 1 1.10 13 15.8 18.7 8.6 8.6 35 26.3 13 26.3 256 50.5 -1.4 -1.1 250 24 283 15 252 17 256 31 236 2 0.80 12.1 14.5 17.1 8.3 9.6 33 23 12 23.0 1531 55.3 -5.6 -3.1 263 21 280 16 274 23 244 25 202 0 1.00 12.3 15.4 18.2 8.6 7.4 23 24 11 22.0 160 50.3 -1.2 -0.7 265 35 285 22 260 25 250 40 250 0 0.97 11.7 14.4 17 8.8 6.1 30 24 12 22.0 375 52.3 -1.9 -1.3 245 20 265 15 245 20 230 20 220 0 0.73 10.7 13.1 16.2 9.8 2.7 19 23 10 21.0 130 48.7 0.2 1.3 260 40 290 25 260 25 260 45 260 -1 0.68 11.8 14 17.9 10 4.4 21 23 9 20.0 126 49.8 -0.1 0 260 45 290 30 250 25 260 60 265 0 0.88 11.4 13.7 16.3 9.5 4.3 21 25 10 22.0 217 54.9 -2.2 -2.5 265 30 295 25 255 25 265 45 265 0 0.73 11.8 15 18.5 10 4 16 24 9 19.0 61 48.3 1.2 0.7 285 35 310 25 275 20 285 55 275 1 0.94 12.3 14.3 16.7 10.2 0.8 33.7 26 12 26.0 568 55.9 -3.3 -3.1 250 30 276 19 230 20 255 40 260 1 0.72 10.4 12.8 15.2 7.9 5.6 29.7 20 11 19.2 324 55.6 -2.8 -2.4 295 30 324 18 305 25 290 30 275 -2 0.78 12.1 14.6 17.9 9.3 6.5 24.4 22 10 22.6 174 50.9 -0.9 -1 265 15 290 10 255 10 260 25 265 -3 0.87 13.9 18.9 21.8 9.7 8.5 16.2 26 13 24.5 124 43.7 1.8 1.9 330 30 355 15 305 20 330 35 335 -3 1.07 16.7 19.2 21.4 10.9 9.6 14.4 29 13 30.3 330 47.0 -0.4 -0.6 305 10 325 5 290 5 315 15 290 -2 1.17 16.1 18.2 20.3 11.2 11.1 41.3 32 15 34.2 1562 57.6 -5.5 -6.5 305 15 340 10 320 15 300 15 275 1 1.20 14.7 16.9 19.7 9 13.8 33 27 17 30.0 1229 56.0 -5.6 -5.2 297 15 327 10 298 9 299 18 286 1 1.10 14 16.5 19.4 9.5 9.1 33 26 14 26.6 850 53.9 -3.2 -3.6 294 26 327 16 300 18 294 31 277 2 1.00 13.8 16.3 18.8 9.9 9.4 35 27 14 27.7 1198 56.4 -4.6 -4.8 280 18 307 11 279 12 280 19 287 -1 1.10 13.6 17.6 20.6 10 8.2 18 27 14 27.0 211 50.3 -1.1 -1.6 297 29 327 19 283 17 298 37 316 -2 1.20 14.4 18.1 21.3 8.6 10.9 18 25 14 25.5 319 46.8 -0.4 -0.4 269 29 300 18 229 13 278 44 261 3 1.10 13.6 16.7 19.6 8.7 10.1 35 25 14 25.1 890 53.4 -3 -3.6 246 26 277 18 228 20 257 38 253 1 0.94 12.7 15.1 17.9 7.7 10 35 26 15 25.0 710 53.3 -3.3 -3 235 35 265 25 230 25 235 50 235 2 0.78 10.5 12.9 15.3 6.7 9.2 31 24 14 16.0 1077 58.5 -5.4 -5.1 225 30 255 20 215 15 232 40 225 0 0.62 10.3 12.7 15.2 9.5 2.2 29 21 9 16.0 331 54.9 -1.8 -1.7 300 20 320 15 290 20 295 20 260
October 2006
Page: 147 High Obser Level ved Wind CDC Speed knots 30 45 55 70 85 50 25 30 35 51 33 16 34 38 54 50 20 25 35 20 20 30 35 35 55 35 30 37 69 36 76 0 1 3 1 -2 -3 -3 0 3 4 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 -2 -1 3 -3 -3 0 2 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 0
1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug
FCS Preci 0C -5C -10C Cloud Cloud Maxi Temp. Dew Conv CAPE Total Lifted Show Cell Cell Storm Storm Low Low Mid Mid High T p. Level Level Level Base Base mum Maxi Point Temp (J/kg) Totals Index alter Direct Speed Direct Speed Level Level Level Level Level CDC Water (kft) (kft) (kft) Heigh Temp Cloud mum (C) (C) ion knots ion knots Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind (in) t (kft) (C) Top (C) (deg) (deg) Direct Speed Direct Speed Direct Heigh ion knots ion knots ion t (kft) (deg) (deg) (deg) 0 0.65 10.8 13.0 15.3 9.6 2.4 23 23 9 19.0 222 55.1 -2 -1.9 275 20 305 10 275 15 275 20 270 0 0.67 11.1 13 15.5 10.6 1.5 29 24 7 18.0 246 55.1 -2.2 -2.0 280 25 305 20 270 20 280 30 265 1 0.68 9.8 12.4 15.1 8.4 4.3 31 22 8 15.0 480 54.8 -2.4 -1.6 275 25 300 15 285 15 265 30 250 1 0.71 10.5 12.3 14.8 8.6 5.6 28.9 20 10 14.8 756 58.4 -4.6 -4.2 265 30 302 23 285 25 260 40 270 -2 0.65 11.1 13.5 16 9.2 3.8 19.9 22 8 21.0 118 51.7 -0.4 -0.5 285 30 320 20 290 20 290 40 285 -3 0.68 12.8 15.4 17.9 7.7 4.9 29.1 24 10 27.6 152 50.8 -0.6 -0.7 265 30 290 15 250 15 270 35 285 -2 1.00 14 16.2 18.9 11.1 4.1 39.6 28 12 30.1 702 54.6 -2.9 -3.6 265 35 280 20 250 20 255 35 255 0 1.05 13.8 15.9 18.2 10.9 6.9 39.9 30 13 29.3 1407 57.3 -5.1 -4.3 255 20 270 15 225 15 255 30 245 0 1.11 12.6 15.2 17.9 8.1 9 26.6 24 13 21.9 698 53.6 -2.7 -3.1 255 20 275 15 235 15 250 30 215 1 0.96 11.1 13.8 16.5 5.6 10.5 34 18 14 18.5 554 51.5 -2.2 -1.3 245 23 264 16 239 17 239 30 226 1 0.74 10.1 12.7 15.2 6.2 8.3 29 16 12 16.0 715 54.9 -3 -2.5 284 19 307 12 297 16 262 19 234 1 0.63 10.6 12.5 15 9.3 3.3 31 20 7 19.9 741 56.7 -3.1 -2.8 313 16 340 10 324 16 311 16 307 -2 0.70 11.5 13.8 18.6 9.9 3.8 14 22 7 22.0 77 45.3 2.4 2.5 308 20 342 13 301 16 317 22 322 -2 0.62 12.8 15.5 18 11.8 3.6 17 27 8 27.1 646 56.1 -3.3 -3.4 271 18 288 14 266 13 260 25 248 0 0.66 11.2 13.6 16.2 8.6 4.9 23 20 8 21.1 248 53.6 -1.7 -1.6 267 28 294 17 271 16 265 35 245 1 0.71 10.5 13.1 15.7 8 6.2 33 19 11 16.0 677 56.1 -2.9 -3.1 315 10 320 10 345 10 290 15 240 -2 0.67 11.7 14.1 17.2 9 4.7 20 23 8 20.0 132 50.1 0 0.1 315 15 350 10 310 10 335 15 350 0 0.77 12.5 14.7 17 9.6 5.3 35 27 11 25.0 761 54.1 -3 -2.1 285 20 310 10 290 15 270 20 290 0 0.84 12.1 14.4 16.9 10.5 4.2 35 26 11 20.0 785 54.7 -2.8 -2.5 265 30 300 15 250 15 275 35 270 -2 0.73 12.5 15 17.6 9.8 5 35 24 11 22.0 719 52.2 -1.4 -1.3 285 20 300 10 255 12 275 15 280 -3 0.52 13.8 16.2 18.7 12.9 1.3 37 29 9 29.0 695 51.6 -1.2 -0.7 290 25 305 15 285 20 260 25 270 2 1.05 12.9 14.9 17.4 10.9 5.8 37.9 29 12 26.0 1490 58.5 -5.2 -4.8 185 10 225 10 245 10 175 20 210 1 0.80 10.6 13.2 15.8 6.9 8.6 23.2 20 13 18.0 913 54.6 -3.5 -2.5 265 15 300 5 255 10 265 10 245 1 0.65 10.7 13.2 16.1 8 7.4 35 20 11 18.9 892 55.0 -3.3 -2.9 305 15 355 10 335 10 315 15 295 -1 0.72 11.7 14.7 18 8.3 4.5 17.1 20 9 18.6 80 47.9 0.9 0.7 325 15 20 10 310 10 5 15 20 -3 0.74 12.9 16.2 18.6 7.6 3.2 10.6 24 7 24.9 0 49.5 0.3 0.2 295 20 325 10 300 10 290 25 275 -3 0.64 13 15.5 18 7.5 5.6 35.5 26 10 27.2 409 53.7 -1.9 -2.6 260 20 290 10 265 10 280 20 325 -3 0.68 14.7 17 19.1 11.8 3.9 12 29 9 33.7 528 52.7 -1.8 -1.7 251 21 281 16 254 16 264 31 253 1 0.97 12.4 14.6 17 7 9.6 32 21 12 22.9 687 53.9 -3.3 -2.9 209 33 249 21 212 27 222 41 204 0 0.64 8.1 10.6 13.4 6 5.4 27 12 9 12.2 455 55.2 -1.6 -1.3 306 12 340 9 314 15 304 11 217 1 0.48 9.1 10.9 13.2 8.3 2.4 23 16 6 15.9 577 58.5 -3.3 -2.8 338 17 6 10 329 17 328 13 4
October 2006
Page: 148 High Obser Level ved Wind CDC Speed knots 35 15 40 20 20 10 25 15 20 75 65 75 30 70 66 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -0.29 2.00 5.00 -3.00
1-Sep 2-Sep 3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep 13-Sep 14-Sep 15-Sep Average StdDev Max Min
FCS Preci 0C -5C -10C Cloud Cloud Maxi Temp. Dew Conv CAPE Total Lifted Show Cell Cell Storm Storm Low Low Mid Mid High T p. Level Level Level Base Base mum Maxi Point Temp (J/kg) Totals Index alter Direct Speed Direct Speed Level Level Level Level Level CDC Water (kft) (kft) (kft) Heigh Temp Cloud mum (C) (C) ion knots ion knots Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind (in) t (kft) (C) Top (C) (deg) (deg) Direct Speed Direct Speed Direct Heigh ion knots ion knots ion t (kft) (deg) (deg) (deg) -3 0.59 13.4 16.4 19 nc nc nc 21 5 30.7 0 39.9 5.6 6 329 9 339 6 323 8 304 14 350 -3 0.56 15.3 17.6 20 nc nc nc 26 7 35.0 0 44.6 2.6 2.9 257 13 276 8 263 12 257 12 232 -3 0.48 14.8 17 19.1 11.6 3.3 30 28 10 34.0 211 49.5 -0.3 0.2 260 5 285 5 300 5 245 10 220 -3 0.55 14.5 16.6 18.9 12.1 2.2 35 28 11 32.0 171 53.2 -0.3 -2.1 270 5 280 5 240 5 270 10 240 -1 0.68 13.9 15.8 17.9 13.1 0.1 32 29 10 30.0 293 57.5 -2.1 -4 310 10 340 5 300 10 320 10 300 0 0.68 13.4 15.5 17.7 11.3 4.1 37 27 12 28.0 925 57.3 -3.5 -4.1 310 10 345 5 295 10 320 15 10 -2 0.74 12.9 15 17.4 11 3 32 25 9 25.0 209 54.0 -1.8 -2.1 300 15 330 10 285 10 310 20 335 -3 0.62 13.1 15.2 17.6 12.4 0.1 24 27 6 27.0 59 53.8 -0.7 -1.9 245 5 240 5 215 10 265 10 55 0 0.76 12.9 15.2 17.5 8.3 1.9 34.5 26 8 26.3 378 56.0 -2.1 -3.3 175 15 220 10 205 15 185 20 205 0 0.76 11.6 15.2 17.6 8.6 5.8 13.3 22 10 21.8 24 51.0 0.1 -0.7 320 15 340 10 310 15 305 15 310 -1 0.90 11.8 14.2 16.9 9.9 4.3 19.9 23 10 24.2 79 52.0 -0.3 -0.8 275 30 295 20 270 20 265 40 270 0 0.81 10.8 13.2 15.5 9 4.4 31.5 22 10 20.9 615 57.0 -3.1 -3.2 270 30 300 15 280 15 265 35 265 -2 0.63 7.6 10.4 13.3 5.9 3.3 10.4 10 9 11.9 0 48.0 3 3.4 10 10 20 5 25 15 305 5 255 -2 0.53 6.5 9.2 12 5.9 1.8 11.9 8 7 6.5 39 55.0 1.1 -0.3 165 15 185 10 160 10 155 20 205 -2 0.60 5.7 10.2 13.8 5.8 -0.1 16 5 5 5.0 0 41.0 7.6 8 118 15 160 11 68 11 142 21 167 -0.40 1.60 4.00 -3.00 0.78 12.01 14.48 17.11 9.35 5.28 27.55 23.00 10.41 0.18 1.82 1.89 1.92 1.72 3.28 8.34 4.68 2.92 1.20 16.70 19.20 21.80 13.20 13.80 41.30 32.00 17.00 0.35 5.70 9.20 12.00 5.60 -3.40 10.40 5.00 3.00 22.4 5.7 35.0 5.0 549 471 1998 0 53.3 4.0 63.0 39.9 -1.91 2.36 7.60 -6.30 -1.86 2.40 8.00 -6.80 270 20.63 47 8.65 360 45.00 10. 3.00
278 13.55 262 15.00 263 24.98 248 46.01 73 5.59 53 6.00 52.81 11.65 63.28 22.26 360 30.00 355 35.00 345 60.00 350 115 5.00 4.00 25.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 9.00
October 2006
Page: 149
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PROJECT PERSONNEL AND TELEPHONE LIST
October 2006

Wmi Alhap Final Report 2006

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Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

ALBERTA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT

FINAL REPORT 2006

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Figure 3: Meteorologists Dr. Viktor Makitov and Dr. Andre Sinkevich.

Figure 4: Meteorologist Jason Goehring and Electronics Tech Harry Ewen.

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Figure 6: Pilots Jayson Bryant and Marshall Makarowski.

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Figure 7: Pilots: Daniel Haines and Craig Lee.

Figure 8: Pilots: Mark Friel and Joel Zimmer.

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Figure 9: Pilot Daniel Fillion and Aircraft Engineer Gary Hillman.

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

THE 2006 FIELD PROGRAM

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

CONCEPTUAL HAIL MODEL

Hail Suppression Hypothesis

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Identification of Hail Producing Storms

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Cloud Seeding Methodology

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Night Time Seeding

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

Flare Effectiveness Tests

Weather Modification Inc.

Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2006 Field Program Final Report

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Pyro type ICE