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In many situations, you need to examine differences among several proportions. The ANOP provides a confidence interval type of approach that allows you to determine which, if any, of the c groups has a proportion significantly different from the overall average of all the group proportions combined. The ANOP is really an extension of the ANOM procedure developed in Section 11.1. In that section, you focused on evaluating several groups of numerical data. In this section, you will learn how to evaluate several groups of categorical data. Instead of looking at the lower and upper limits of a confidence interval, you will be studying which of the c group proportions are not contained in an interval formed between a lower decision line and upper decision line. Any individual group proportion not contained in this interval is deemed significantly larger than the overall average of all group proportions if it lies above the upper decision line. Similarly, any group proportion that falls below the lower decision line is declared significantly smaller than the overall average of all group proportions. As with confidence interval estimation, to compute the upper and lower decision lines (UDL and LDL) for ANOP, you must add and subtract a measure of sampling error around the statistic of interest. That is, FOrMAt fOr ALL COnfIdEncE IntErVALS statistic { sampling error statistic { 1critical value21standard error of the statistic2 OBtAInInG tHE UDL And LDL p { hc, where c = number of groups in the study j = representation for a particular group; j = 1, 2, c , c nj = sample size for group j n = total number of observations where each of the nj sample sizes are equal; n = n1 + n2 + g + nc n = average sample size over all c groups; n = n > c p = X1 + X2 + g + Xc X = n n1 + n2 + g + nc p = pooled proportion; the overall average of all c sample proportions; p11 - p2 1c - 12 c B n B
hc, = critical value of Nelsons h statistic with c groups and large sample sizes, nj, per group obtained using the infinity row in the table so that UppEr DEcISIOn LInE fOr AnOp UDL = p + hc, p11 - p2 1c - 12 c B n B
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Note that Nelsons h statistic is found from the combination of c groups with the infinity row for common group sample sizes. This is because the ANOP procedure expects the sample sizes to be large. The major assumption for applying the ANOP procedure is that the c group sample sizes be sufficiently large to enable the expected number of items of interest in each group to be at least 5. That is, nj pj 5 and also nj11 - pj2 5. To demonstrate how the ANOP procedure is used, suppose that the Rosen & Berg food processing plant funnels its baked cookies to sealing machines used for product packaging. In monitoring the process, Livia Salvador, the product manager, finds that the quality of the seals, as defined by the proportion of defective seals, is at an unacceptably high level. Because she feels that the temperature setting on the sealing machine may affect the quality of the seals, she designs an experiment in which five different temperature settings are evaluated. At each temperature setting, 500 boxes are sealed and examined for their seal quality. The following table presents the number of boxes with defective and non-defective package seals at each of the five temperature settings.
Sealing Machine Temperature Setting No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 No. 4 22 20 34 23 478 480 466 477 500 500 500 500
From the data you observe that with five temperature settings used to evaluate the sealing process for samples of 500 different boxes per temperature setting, there is no problem with the ANOP procedure assumption regarding expected numbers of defective and non-defective seals. To apply the ANOP procedure, you first need to compute the key statistics from the experiment as well as the critical value of Nelsons h statistic. From the data displayed in the table above, you compute the following: p = X1 + X2 + g + Xc X = n n1 + n2 + g + nc 122 + 20 + 34 + 23 + 412 140 = = = 0.056 1500 + 500 + 500 + 500 + 5002 2,500
Because the estimated overall proportion of defective seals is 0.056, its complement, 11 - p2, or 0.944, is the estimated proportion of non-defective or conforming seals. The critical values of Nelsons h statistic for obtaining the 95% UDL and LDL are found in the following table.
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Selected Critical Values of Nelsons h Statistic for Obtaining 95% Upper and Lower Decision Lines (UDL and LDL)
3 2.79 2.67 2.60 2.55 2.52 2.49 2.46 2.43 2.40 2.34
4 2.85 2.74 2.68 2.65 2.62 2.59 2.56 2.55 2.53 2.47
Number of Groups, c 5 6 2.88 2.79 2.74 2.71 2.69 2.66 2.64 2.62 2.61 2.56 2.91 2.83 2.79 2.77 2.74 2.72 2.70 2.68 2.66 2.62
7 2.94 2.87 2.83 2.80 2.79 2.76 2.75 2.73 2.71 2.68
Note: Values in italics were obtained through linear interpolation. Source: Table 2 of L. S. Nelson, Exact Critical Values for Use with the Analysis of Means, Journal of Quality Technology, 15(1), 1983. Reprinted with permission of the American Society for Quality.
Given that you have five temperature settings 1c = 52 and samples of 500 boxes per setting 1nj = 5002, the critical value of Nelsons h statistic for the sealing machine temperaturesetting experiment is h5, = 2.56. You now compute the UDL and LDL as follows: UDL = p + hc, p11 - p2 1c - 12 c B n B
10.056210.9442 4 B 500 B5
= 0.056 - 12.562
p11 - p2 1c - 12 c B n B
10.056210.9442 4 B 500 B5
From the cross-classification table, the proportions of defective seals out of 500 boxes sampled for each of the five sealing machine temperature settings are p1 = 0.044 p2 = 0.040 p3 = 0.068 p4 = 0.046 p5 = 0.082 The following is a graphical display for the ANOP.
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The proportions of defective box seals for each of the five sealing machine temperature settings are plotted on the vertical axis. From top to bottom, the three horizontal lines represent the UDL, p (the pooled proportion or overall average of all five proportions of defective box seals combined), and the LDL. From this figure, you observe that the proportion of defective boxes produced by temperature setting 5 is significantly higher than the average proportion, based on all five temperature settings combined. You would suggest to the product manager Livia Salvador that temperature setting 5 should not be used.
12.6 McNemar Test for the Difference Between Two Proportions (Related Samples)
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Totals A + B C+D n
number of respondents who answer yes to condition 1 and yes to condition 2 number of respondents who answer yes to condition 1 and no to condition 2 number of respondents who answer no to condition 1 and yes to condition 2 number of respondents who answer no to condition 1 and no to condition 2 number of respondents in the sample
The sample proportions are A + B = proportion of respondents in the sample who answer yes to condition 1 n A + C p2 = = proportion of respondents in the sample who answer yes to condition 2 n p1 = The population proportions are p1 = proportion in the population who would answer yes to condition 1 p2 = proportion in the population who would answer yes to condition 2 When testing differences between the proportions, you can use a two-tail test or a one-tail test. In both cases, you use a test statistic that approximately follows the normal distribution. Equation (12.9) presents the McNemar test statistic used to test H0: p1 = p2. McNEMAr TESt StAtIStIc ZSTAT = B - C 2B + C (12.9)
To illustrate the McNemar test, suppose that the business problem facing a cell phone provider was to determine the effect of a marketing campaign on the brand loyalty of cell phone customers.
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Data were collected from n = 600 participants. In the study, the participants were initially asked to state their preferences for two competing cell phone providers, Sprint and Verizon. Initially, 282 panelists said they preferred Sprint and 318 said they preferred Verizon. After exposing the set of participants to an intensive marketing campaign strategy for Verizon, the same 600 participants are again asked to state their preferences. Of the 282 panelists who previously preferred Sprint, 246 maintained their brand loyalty, but 36 switched their preference to Verizon. Of the 318 participants who initially preferred Verizon, 306 remained brand loyal, but 12 switched their preference to Sprint. These results are organized into the contingency table presented in Table 12.17. You use the McNemar test for these data because you have repeated measurements from the same set of panelists. Each participant gave a response about whether he or she preferred
T A B L E 1 2 . 1 7 Brand Loyalty of Cell Phone Providers
Sprint or Verizon before exposure to the intensive marketing campaign and then again after exposure to the campaign. To determine whether the intensive marketing campaign was effective, you want to investigate whether there is a difference between the population proportion who favor Sprint before the campaign, p1, versus the proportion who favor Sprint after the campaign, p2. The null and alternative hypotheses are H0: p1 = p2 H1: p1 p2 Using a 0.05 level of significance, the critical values are - 1.96 and + 1.96 (see Figure 12.16), and the decision rule is Reject H0 if ZSTAT 6 - 1.96 or if ZSTAT 7 + 1.96; otherwise, do not reject H0.
F I G ur E 1 2 . 1 6 Two-tail McNemar test at the 0.05 level of significance
Reject H0 .025 1.96
Do not reject H0
For the data in Table 12.17, A = 246 B = 36 C = 12 D = 306 so that p1 = A + B 246 + 36 282 A + C 246 + 12 258 = = = 0.47 and p2 = = = = 0.43 n n 600 600 600 600 B - C 2B + C 36 - 12 236 + 12 24 248
12.6 McNemar Test for the Difference Between Two Proportions (Related Samples)
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Because ZSTAT = 3.4641 7 1.96, you reject H0. Using the p -value approach (see Figure 12.17), the p-value is 0.0005. Because 0.0005 6 0.05, you reject H0. You can conclude that the population proportion who prefer Sprint before the intensive marketing campaign is different from the population proportion who prefer Sprint after exposure to the intensive Verizon marketing campaign. In fact, from Figure 12.17, observe that preference for Verizon increased after exposure to the intensive marketing campaign.
F I G ur E 1 2 . 1 7 Excel results for the McNemar test for brand loyalty of cell phone providers
Total 71 75 146
a. Compute the McNemar test statistic. b. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence of a difference between group 1 and group 2?
AppLYInG tHE COncEpts SELF 12.61 A market researcher wanted to determine Test whether the proportion of coffee drinkers who
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that the proportion of coffee drinkers who prefer Brand A is
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lower at the beginning of the advertising campaign than at the end of the advertising campaign? b. Compute the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning. 12.62 Two candidates for governor participated in a televised debate. A political pollster recorded the preferences of 500 registered voters in a random sample prior to and after the debate: PReFeReNce PRIOR TO DebATe Candidate A Candidate B Total PReFeReNce AFTeR DebATe Candidate A Candidate B Total 269 21 290 36 174 210 305 195 500
12.64 The CEO of a large metropolitan health-care facility would like to assess the effect of the recent implementation of the Six Sigma management approach on customer satisfaction. A random sample of 100 patients is selected from a list of patients who were at the facility the past week and also a year ago: SATISFIeD NOW Yes No 67 5 20 8 87 13
Total 72 28 100
a. At the 0.01 level of significance, is there evidence of a difference in the proportion of voters who favored Candidate A prior to and after the debate? b. Compute the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning. 12.63 A taste-testing experiment compared two brands of Chilean merlot wines. After the initial comparison, 60 preferred Brand A, and 40 preferred Brand B. The 100 respondents were then exposed to a very professional and powerful advertisement promoting Brand A. The 100 respondents were then asked to taste the two wines again and declare which brand they preferred. The results are shown in the following table: PReFeReNce AFTeR ADVeRTISINg Brand A Brand B 55 5 15 25 70 30
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that satisfaction was lower last year, prior to introduction of Six Sigma management? b. Compute the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning. 12.65 The personnel director of a large department store wants to reduce absenteeism among sales associates. She decides to institute an incentive plan that provides financial rewards for sales associates who are absent fewer than five days in a given calendar year. A sample of 100 sales associates selected at the end of the second year reveals the following:
Total 60 40 100
Total 36 64 100
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that the proportion who preferred Brand A was lower before the advertising than after the advertising? b. Compute the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning.
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that the proportion of employees absent fewer than five days was lower in year 1 than in year 2? b. Compute the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning.
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If you select a sample of 25 cereal boxes, you reject the null hypothesis if the computed x2 STAT test statistic falls into either the lower or upper tail of a chi-square distribution with 25 - 1 = 24 degrees of freedom, as shown in Figure 12.18. From Equation (12.10), observe that the x2 STAT test statistic falls into the lower tail of the chi-square distribution if the sample standard deviation (S) is sufficiently smaller than the hypothesized s of 15 grams, and it falls into the upper tail if S is sufficiently larger than 15 grams. From Table 12.18 (extracted from Table E.4), if you select a level of significance of 0.05, the lower and upper critical values are 12.401 and 39.364, respectively. Therefore, the decision rule is
2 2 2 Reject H0 if x2 STAT 6 xa>2 = 12.401 or if xSTAT 7 x1 - a>2 = 39.364;
F I G ur E 1 2 . 1 8 Determining the lower and upper critical values of a chi-square distribution with 24 degrees of freedom corresponding to a 0.05 level of significance for a two-tail test of hypothesis about a population variance or standard deviation
0 Region of Rejection
.025 12.401
.95
.025 39.364
Region of Nonrejection
Region of Rejection
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T A B L E 1 2 . 1 8 Finding the Critical Values Corresponding to a 0.05 Level of Significance for a TwoTail Test from the ChiSquare Distribution with 24 Degrees of Freedom
Cumulative Area .005 .01 .025 .05 .10 .90 .95 .975
Upper-Tail Areas Degrees of Freedom 1 2 3 . . . 23 24 25 .995 .99 .975 .95 .90 .10 .05 .025 c c 0.001 0.004 0.016 2.706 3.841 5.024 0.010 0.020 0.051 0.103 0.211 4.605 5.991 7.378 0.072 0.115 0.216 0.352 0.584 6.251 7.815 9.348 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.260 10.196 11.689 13.091 14.848 32.007 35.172 38.076 9.886 10.856 12.401 13.848 15.659 33.196 36.415 39.364 10.520 11.524 13.120 14.611 16.473 34.382 37.652 40.646
Suppose that in the sample of 25 cereal boxes, the standard deviation, S , is 17.7 grams. Using Equation (12.10), x2 STAT = 1n - 12S2 s2 = 125 - 12117.722 11522 = 33.42
2 2 Because x2 0.025 = 12.401 6 xSTAT = 33.42 6 x0.975 = 39.364, or because the p@value = 0.0956 7 0.05 (see Figure 12.19), you do not reject H0. You conclude that there is insufficient evidence that the population standard deviation is different from 15 grams.
Figure 12.19 displays the COMPUTE worksheet of the Chi-Square Variance workbook. Create this worksheet using the instructions in Section EG12.7.
In testing a hypothesis about a population variance or standard deviation, you assume that the values in the population are normally distributed. Unfortunately, the test statistic discussed in this section is very sensitive to departures from this assumption (i.e., it is not a robust test). Thus, if the population is not normally distributed, particularly for small sample sizes, the accuracy of the test can be seriously affected.
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AppLYInG tHE COncEpts 12.74 A manufacturer of candy must monitor the temperature at which the candies are baked. Too much variation will cause inconsistency in the taste of the candy. Past records show that the standard deviation of the temperature has been 1.2F. A random sample of 30 batches of candy is selected, and the sample standard deviation of the temperature is 2.1F. a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that the population standard deviation has increased above 1.2F? b. What assumption do you need to make in order to perform this test? c. Compute the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning.
12.75 A market researcher for an automobile dealer intends to conduct a nationwide survey concerning car repairs. Among the questions included in the survey is the
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for the Variance. In the procedures dialog box (shown below): 1. Enter 225 as the Null Hypothesis. 2. Enter 0.05 as the Level of Significance. 3. Enter 25 as the Sample Size. 4. Enter 17.7 as the Sample Standard Deviation. 5. Select Two-Tail Test. 6. Enter a Title and click OK.
The procedure creates a worksheet similar to Figure 12.19. In-Depth Excel Use the CHISQ.INV.RT and CHISQ. DIST.RT functions to help perform the chi-square test for the variance or standard deviation. Enter CHISQ.INV.RT(1 half area, degrees of freedom) and enter CHISQ.INV.RT(half area, degrees of freedom) to compute the lower and upper critical values. Enter CHISQ.DIST.RT( X2 test statistic, degrees of freedom) to compute the p-value. Use the COMPUTE worksheet of the Chi-Square Variance workbook, shown in Figure 12.19, as a template for performing the chi-square test. The worksheet contains the data for the cereal-filling process example. To perform the test for other problems, change the null hypothesis, level of significance, sample size, and sample standard deviation in the cell range B4:B7. (Open to the COMPUTE_ FORMULAS worksheet to examine the details of all formulas used in the COMPUTE worksheet.)