CPG FMCG Food Benchmark Study

Participant Questions
1 Single department responsible for managing the overall forecast function.
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Answers
Demand Planning Finance Logistics / Distribution Marketing Production / Manufacturing Sales Supply Chain / Procurement
Food
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Food
1 1 0 1 0 1 0
Food
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast.
Demand Planning Finance
R,A,C C I R,A R,A C,I
R,A A I R,A I R,A I
R,A I R,A R,A R,I
Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast. Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement Describe roles and responsibilities of forecast process participants: >>> Demand Planning
Design and generation of statistical baseline, alignment of initiatives and to generate unconstrained demand, collaboration with supply to validate forecast against capacity. Validation of consensus forecast vs. budgets / LEs Support creation of unconstrained demand and align to supply based constrained fcst - new initiatives, Support creation of unconstrained demand and align to supply based constrained fcst - new initiatives,
Generate baseline forecast
Baseline forecast, statistical modeling, fcst overrides and maintenance
>>>
Finance
n/a
Budget and Latest Estimates
>>>
Marketing
Provide customer/ competitive
Consumption, ship/share analysis, NPI, annual target - gap closing activities Promotion activities, new opportunities, listings / delistings = all via TPM software; sales promo grid excel sheet volume & timing
>>>
Sales
n/a
>>> Sales Strategy / Trade Marketing
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Answers
Food
Align & Share the trade marketing activities for upcoming initiatives (both product and market initiatives) n/a
Food
n/a
Food
>>>
Supply / Procurement
n/a
n/a
n/a
Tools used to generate & update forecast.
SAP APO Demantra Forecast PRO i2 Manugistics MS Excel Smart Forecasts Other (describe)
0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Which planning activities align their plans to the forecast?
Budgeting Financial Planning Logistics Planning Manufacturing Planning Marketing Planning Sales Planning
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 0 1 1 1
Are forecasts regularly distributed to functional groups?
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
Sales history used for statistical forecast - outlier handling.
Automatic Manual Not done
0 1 0 We review CSL report for OOS and any Demand planning - manual event like promotion etc happened in adjustments past weeks which creates outlier in forecast. There are two ways to tackle that: 1) highlight such irregularities as Events in Event file use for forecast pro. 2) Manual adjust the historical data to reflect the clean history.
0 1 0 Based on forecast that does not look right, analyst tries to find historical outlier that needs to be taken out to correct the future.
0 1 0
Describe methodology used to detect / define outliers:
Participant Questions Answers
event like promotion etc happened in adjustments past weeks which creates outlier in forecast. There are two ways to tackle that: 1) highlight such irregularities as Events in Event file use for forecast pro. F1 F2 2) Manual adjust the historical data to 5/30/2011 5/24/2011 reflect the clean Food history. Food
right, analyst tries to find historical outlier that needs to be taken out to correct the future.
F3
6/2/2011
Food
Time buckets used to generate base/ statistical forecast.
Weekly Monthly Other (describe)
1 0 0
0 1 0
1 0 0
10
How many years of history is used to generate base /statistical forecast? Three Two One Other (describe)
1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0
11
How far out do you forecast - forecast horizon?
Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) No
0 0 1 0
0 1 0 0 Monthly buckets, but quarters and No years growth vs. previous years used to sanity check the quality of the plan.
0 1 0 0
12
Do you use different time buckets when forecasting? ( i.e. monthly for first 6 months, quarterly for next 12 months)
13
Are special upcoming circumstances, that may affect demand, communicated to all stakeholders of the forecast?
Yes No Sometimes
0 0 1
1 0 0
0 0 1
14
Which building blocks do you incorporate into the creation of the forecast?
Marketing Plans Competitive Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions Inventory / Manufacturing Assumptions External Factors (economy, political, weather, consumption data, ) Legal / Regulatory Other (describe)
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 0
1 0 1 0
External Factors
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 0
15
Are previous assumptions / building blocks reviewed and their validity assessed on a monthly basis?
Yes No
1 0
0 0
0 0

Sometimes
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Food
0
Food
1
Food
1
16 Are forecast assumptions communicated to all stakeholders of forecast?
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
Food
1 0 0
Food
1 0 0
Food
0 0 1 Incremental lift based on sales analysis of baseline and current activity versus similar events in past.
Describe the process of incorporating forecast for promotional activity:
Manually reflected after alignment in Sales feedback. Sales plans are initiative meeting by highlighting updated with promotional lift, then incremental volume and discussed in pre-consensus meeting cannibalization impact with a detail drop size plan from trade marketing.
17
Describe the process of determining the cannibalization factor / level applied to base forecast as a result of promotions
18
Depends upon product to product, No real process, expert opinion based based on assumption like target on previous results market share, target group of consumers (for example Launching Danao 300 ml will definitely cannibalize 180 ml but 300 ml is mainly used by adult group while 180 ml is mainly used by Children etc.)
Sales determined, DP has no real say in how this is calculated (DP submits baseline forecast with marketing events and sales will provide overrides that include cannibalization - excel report that needs to be keyed in the Manugistics)
Describe the process of incorporating forecast for new products:
New products are finalized in initiative meeting with the following: i) Target volume based on target market share, Neilson data etc. Ii) Target consumer with cannibalization impact if any.
19
1. Business case is created and presented to the leadership team 2. Once approved, Demand Planning phase the NPL based on business case and customer proportions 3. Customer feedback (listing, promotion, display) updates the forecasts once we are closer to launch date
Marketing and Demand planning work together on development of initial phased in forecast including estimated pipeline size and shape. (6-8 months pre launch). Sales will provide detailed pipeline forecast at about 2 months pre launch followed by updates.
Describe the process of determining the cannibalization factor / level applied to base forecast as a result of new product launches:
As mentioned, its purely based on assumptions Target market share, Neilson data, drop size calculation from trade marketing etc.
No real process, expert opinion based Rule of thumb - first three months on previous results post launch no cannibalization factor applied to protect the existing stock. Past 3 months cannibalization determined by marketing and dp applied to forecast. Dp will then carry 'risk' message in until the new product is stable.
20
As mentioned, its purely based on assumptions Target market share, Neilson data, drop size calculation from trade marketing etc.
F1
5/30/2011
No real process, expert opinion based Rule of thumb - first three months on previous results post launch no cannibalization factor applied to protect the existing stock. Past 3 months cannibalization determined by marketing and dp applied to forecast. Dp will then carry 'risk' message in until the new product F2 F3 is stable. 5/24/2011 6/2/2011
Food
Food
Food
21
Is there only one standard unit of measure to be forecasted, across different departments?
Yes No
0 1
0 1
0 1
22
What are the standard units of measure used to develop and communicate forecasts?
Units dollars Equivalent Units Tonnage - volume Other - Cases
1 1 1 1 0
1 1 0 0 0
1 1 0 1 1
23
At what level of detail is statistical base line forecast developed?
Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Total Customer National Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe)
0 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 1 0
24
At what level of detail is forecast adjusted / overridden during your monthly cycle?
0 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 1 0
25
How often do you communicate forecast to senior levels of the organization?
Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Sometimes Never
1 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
26
Have the business implications of good/bad forecasts been demonstrated to top management? Yes No
1 0
1 0
0 1
27
Is forecast accuracy / error currently measured?
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Food
Food
Food
28
How is the forecast accuracy / error measured?
Error / Bias MAE MAPE WMAPE Other Error: A-F Error: F-A % Error: A-F/A % Error: A-F/F % Error: F-A/A % Error: F-A/F
0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
29
Forecast error calculations Actual = A, Forecast = F
30
At what level of product hierarchy is forecast accuracy / error reported?
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 1
31
Is a target forecast accuracy / error established?
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error? Demand planner
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 1 1 0 Demand planning mainly, but all other Demand planners consensus team members are accountable
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
33
34
Is past performance used to evaluate future forecast?
Yes No
1 0
1 0
0 1
35
Do forecasters look for ways to systematically improve the forecasting process?
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
36 Is an integrated score-card used in your organization?
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Answers
Yes No
Food
1 0 Planned or un planned events, competitor reaction, Sales performance per region etc.
Food
1 0 Sales forecast, listing/ listing, activity calendar
Food
1 0 1) Promotional calendar (grid) with time/volume(CS) including some estimates of cannibalization of base stock 2) NPI pipeline forecast at launch minus 2 months
List information / data provided by sales organization: 37
38
Does Sales Group provide forecast for review during the S&OP process?
Yes No
0 1 Sales Forecast is based on Baseline Statistical projection+ Initiatives+manual adjustment due to competitor reaction etc.
0 1 National Accounts develop an independent forecast which is then revised by Trade marketing and used to influence the consensus call during pre-consensus meetings. It is also used to compare against final consensus As a by-product of trade spend analysis / funds allocation in TPM software, sales generate their own forecast at promoted group level in dollars and cases. Separate lines are used to overlay base forecast with promotions.
1 0
Describe SALES FORECAST process (Sales Organization): 39
What analysis do sales provide to support their data / forecasts?
Sales performance per channel and latest estimates figures.
Very little, gut feel mostly
40
Top several accounts responsible for approx. 70% volume - sales provide analysis of POS and other account specific knowledge / data that supports their forecasts.
41
Who is responsible - within Sales Organization - for the forecast / data analysis? Sales Planner or Analyst Trade Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst Marketing Analyst Demand Planner collaborating with Sales Other
1 1 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
42
Is the Sales Analyst /Planner function:
Centralized - 1 analyst supporting all customers and all regions

Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 1 customer all regions Regional analyst supporting all customers in region Other
F1
5/30/2011
F2
5/24/2011
F3
6/2/2011
Food
Food
Food
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 0
F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Answers
Food
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Food
0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Food
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
R,A I I C,A C,A C,A
C A I
A I -
responsible for statistical baseline, not in place - sales driven 100% forecast overrides, and administration for S&OP meetings. Also responsible for facilitating DP meetings.
Collaborate with sales to create a forecast
>>>
Finance
>>>
Marketing
Budget versus plan / observe / input Final reconciliation of forecast vs. into their portion of S&OP cycle from financial plans dp meetings provide building blocks - promo, TV, npi,
>>>
Sales
Validate all forecasts as well as play active role in compiling forecasts by customer and promotional events
Generation of bottom-up, SKU volumes
obtain data from customers
F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Answers
Food
Food
Food
>>>
constraining the demand plan working with quotas means they may need to produce more
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
APO replacing Manugistics
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Parts of business on APO parts on legacy Manugistics
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Some categories will take back new consensus number and distribute it back to individual accounts 0
0 1 1 0 1
0 1 0 1 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 1
Some categories will take back new conse distribute it back to individual accounts
Yes No
1 0
0 1
1 0
0 1 0 Total sales shipment history is loaded n/a to the forecasting systems, and demand planners cleanse nonrepeatble events from that history to drive to future statistical forecast Weekly forecast variance process to review prior week's promotional activities. Visual review of forecasting models where tool has identified outliers, combined with exception reports.
0 0 1 the Lewandowski model in manugistics identifies outliers in the past bgased on parameters input by the demand planning team
1 0 0
to the forecasting systems, and demand planners cleanse nonrepeatble events from that history to drive to future statistical forecast Weekly forecast variance process to review prior week's promotional activities. F4 Visual review of forecasting models 6/3/2011 where tool has identified Food outliers, combined with exception reports.
manugistics identifies outliers in the past bgased on parameters input by the demand planning team
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Food
Food
1 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
10
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 1 0 0
11
Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) No
0 0 1 0 No no, forecast always by week
0 0 1 0
12
13
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
0 0 1
1 0 0
14
1 0 1 0
0 0 1 0
0 1 1 0
External Factors
0 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
15
Yes No
1 0
0 1
1 0

Sometimes
F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Food
0
Food
0
Food
0
F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
Food
0 0 1 Sales team will submit notification of promotional activity to the demand planning team with an estimated volume. The demand planner validates the estimate based on historical performance of previous promos, and then enters the lift quantity into the forecasting system.
Food
0 0 1 Very basic look back at volumes achieved on similar promotions.
Food
1 0 0 there are several ways we can input promotional activity into the forecast = one way is to override the baseline forecast with the anticipated incremental volume, another is to lock the forecast with the total estimate volume for the promotional period, sot the system cannot override the top-level number.
17
We don't have a very clearly defined Very basic look back at volumes process for this scenario. Adjustments achieved on similar promotions. to affected SKU's are handled at the judgement of the demand planner managing the promoted item(s).
the base forecast remain constant as to not affect future trends. The promotions volume is entered as an incremental over the base forecast.
18
19
Where history is available for a likeA combination of customer SKU, that information will be used to "intelligence" and sales team develop the lifecycle curve of the new experience product. Volumes are then estimated based on information available from the Marketing teams, and confirmed customer listings from the Sales teams.
Forecasts for new products normally will have increased volume for the 'load-in' period which is normally two to four weeks. After that the system will try to establish a lower baseline mean to develop future forecast.
Marketing function will provide the A combination of customer expected SKUs to be cannibalized, "intelligence" and sales team along with estimates of the experience percentage impact. Validation of the estimates is performed initially by the demand planning team, and total forecasts are reviewed in the S&Op meeting.
The initial base forecast for a new item is set between 10% and 30% of the initial 'load-in' period forecast.
20
Marketing function will provide the A combination of customer expected SKUs to be cannibalized, "intelligence" and sales team along with estimates of the experience percentage impact. Validation of the estimates is performed initially by the demand planning team, and total forecasts are reviewed in the S&Op F4 F5 meeting. 6/3/2011 6/29/2011
The initial base forecast for a new item is set between 10% and 30% of the initial 'load-in' period forecast.
F6
6/29/2011
Food
Food
Food
21
Yes No
0 1
Supply Chain and Manufacturing use Unit quantities
0 1
1 0
22
cases
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0
cases
23
0 0 1 0 0 1 0
We use a topdown approach, reconciling the Item/DC
01 1 0 0 0 0 -
excel only tools - ???
24
0 0 0 1 0 0 0
00 1 0 0 0 0 -
25
1 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
26
1 0
27
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
0 1
1 0 0
F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Food
Food
Food
28
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
29
30
0 0
Item / DC 1 target 20% MAPE, currently running 0 at 40-50%
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 brand / package /0 category 0 0 1
Item / DC target 20% MAPE, currently running at 40-
0 1 0
31
Yes No
1 0
1 0
MAPE 20%
1 0
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error? Demand Planning
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sales - but loosely
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Supply chain lead - demand planner's supervisor
33
34
Yes No
1 0
Not entirely clear on this question, but we would use the past performance to prioritize model
0 1
1 0
35
Yes No
1 0
1 0
F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Answers
Yes No
Food
1 0 Estimated category volumes by customer business teams Customer listings and de-listings Promotional activity New product listings
Food
1 0 Revenue vs. last year and vs. budget, volume vs. last year and budget unknown
Food
1 0
no S&OP process
38
Yes No
1 0 Very rudimentary - prior year volumes are reviewed, and growth percentage is applied, taking into account innovation and SKU rationalizations Sales analysts (admin in reality) look at history in excel and forecast forward based on simple moving averages without much recourse to trend and seasonality. Very unsophisticated.
0 1 Unknown
1 0
Very minimal - this is an area where we have tremendous opportunities
None apart from anecdotal
40
the main analysis is provided by the demand planning department. Other factors like seasonality, ads and promos are taken into consideration along MDF funding
41
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0
42

F4
6/3/2011
F5
6/29/2011
F6
6/29/2011
Food
Food
Food
0 1 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Answers
Food
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Food
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Food
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Demand Planning Logistics / Distribution Production / Manufacturing Supply Chain / Procurement
R C C C A C
A I I R R R
A,C I A,C -
Demand Planning
Steward of the process, owns statistical baseline
Build forecast based on Sales and Marketing input (?), Generate base forecast, process coordination
>>>
Finance
consolidation of budget
provides targets and implication of forecasts
From S&OP forecast, build the assumptions for financial purposes Provide info on marketing events (TV, flyers, ), discuss base evolution
>>>
Marketing
market share estimate - new products provides marketing input volumes
>>>
Sales
determine sales with a bottom-up upproach
provides customer level promotional volumes
validate base generated by DP provide sales events (timing and tonnage)
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Answers
Food
Food
?
Food
>>>
determine production requriement (corporate, divisional and local level)
provides insight into implications of forecasts
none
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 0
1 0 1 1 0 1
Financial Planning Logistics Planning Manufacturing Planning Marketing Planning
Yes No
0 1
1 0
1 0
Automatic Manual Not done Actual to budget
0 0 1 combination of paratmeter settings and cleaning historical data for outliers
1 1 0
0 1 0
and cleaning historical data for outliers
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Food
Food
Food
1 1 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
10
0 0 1 0
1 0 0
0 1 0 0
11
Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) no
0 0 1 0 all weekly
0 0 1 0 weeks and months only
0 1 0 0
12
13
Yes No Sometimes
0 1 0
0 0 1
1 0 0
14
1 0 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 0 1
Marketing Plans Competitive Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions
Inventory 0 / Manufacturing Assumptions
External Factors
0 1 0
1 0 0
0 0 0
Legal / Regulatory
15
Yes No
0 0
1 0
1 0

Sometimes
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Food
1
Food
0
Food
0
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
Food
1 0 0 seasonal and new product launches will affect promotions (???)
Food
1 0 0 trade funds tool not integrated with planning system. Sales managers t4rade funds tool., and demand planner will create promotions in planning tool manually based on report generated from trade funds tool
Food
1 0 0 Based on discussion with the customers, the KAM input the estimated volume of promo in CPWerks. This is reviewed and validated by the DP and the input in APO
17
n/a
not done at promotional level
18
Based on history and market knowledge from other sources (online flyers, customer service, customer, KAMs) the DP estimate the cannibalization occurring during a certain promotional activity. No track of it is being kept (meaning no database for model build)
annual budget process incorporates decisions for new product launches
marketing provides velocity assumptions, sales provides distribution assumptions - forecast created based on these (what about past launches analysis / look like methods?)
19
First step is KAM presentation to the customer. Then is an XLS file the KAM note which SKU will be listed. Only after the confirmation of listing, the forecast is updated in APO. Very often, it happens that we need to evaluated the forecast before the listing is confirmed.
n/a
marketing provides based on research It is done approximately three months (?????) after the launch based on the method for regular products. We also look at Nielsen info to track confirmed behaviours between brands
20
n/a
marketing provides based on research It is done approximately three months (?????) after the launch based on the method for regular products. We also look at Nielsen info to track confirmed behaviours between brands
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Food
Food
Food
21
Yes No
0 1
0 1
1 0
22
1 1 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0
Equivalent Units Tonnage - volume

cases
23
Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Total Customer National excel only tools - ??? Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe)
0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 1 0 0RFA, PV 1 0
Divisional / Company Level
Product Line 0 / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level 0 Item / SKU National Level 0 Total Customer National 1 Customer / Product Group Level 0 Customer / Item / SKU Level 1
24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Product Line 1 / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level 1 Item / SKU National Level 1 Total Customer National 0 Customer / Product Group Level 0 Customer / Item / SKU Level 0
25
0 1 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0
26
1 0
1 0
27
Yes No Sometimes
0 0 1
1 0 0
1 0 0
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Food
Food
Food
28
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1
29
Absolute value of
30
Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level brand / package / Total Customer National category Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe)
0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Product Line 0 / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / DC 1 Item / SKU National Level target 20% MAPE, currently running at 400 Total Customer National 1 Customer / Product Group Level 0 Customer / Item / SKU Level 0 Other (describe)
31
Yes No
0 1
1 0
1 0
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error? Sales group
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 demand planning
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Demand Planning
1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Supply / Procurement Team Senior Management
33
34
Yes No
0 1
0 1
1 0
35
Yes No
0 1
1 0
1 0
F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Answers
Yes No n/a
Food
0 1
Food
1 0 gained / lost distribution, customer pricing changes, promotional activity details
Food
0 1
38
Yes No Bottom up approach, from skus per client pers sales rep to tatal sales figures
0 1 n/a
0 1
1 0
sales target and objectives
n/a
none of few
40
national, category based
41
0 0 0 0 1
sales reps
0 1 0 0 0
Sales Planner or Analyst
one analyst per category at all customers and one region
Trade 0 Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst 0 Marketing Analyst Demand 1 Planner collaborating with Sales 0
42
Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 0 all customers and all regions
sales reps

F7
7/14/2011
F8
7/2/2011
F9
7/4/2011
Food
Food
Food
0 0 1
0 1 0
Centralized - 1 analyst 0 supporting 1 customer all regions Regional analyst 0 supporting all customers in region 0
each sales rep responsible for their own group
Food Companin es Participant
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Total no. of responses: Total no. of responses:
Questions
Answers
Demand Planning Demand Planning Finance Finance Logistics / Distribution Logistics / Distribution Marketing Marketing Production / Manufacturing Production / Manufacturing Sales Sales Supply Chain / Procurement Supply Chain / Procurement
8
7 0 0 1 0 1 3 78% 88% 22% 0% 0% 0% 11% 13% 0% 0% 22% 13% 0% 38% Food Companines CPG 89% 11% 0% 11% 33% 89% 11% 175% 25% 0% 13% 38% 88% 50%
7 2 0 1 0 2 0 Food Companines CPG 8 1 0 1 3 8 1
Single department responsible for managing the overall forecast function.

Supply Chain / Procurement Sales Production / Manufacturing Marketing Logistics / Distribution Finance 2 7 7 1 1 CPG
1
Food Companines 3 2
Demand Planning Finance Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement
14 2 0 1 3 7 4
Demand Planning
Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast.

Supply / Procurement Sales Marketing Manufacturing Logistics Finance Demand Planning
1 2 1 1 3 3
CPG 4
Food Companines 7
14
>>>
Finance
Participation in monhtly process
CPG Food Companines 7 7 7 6 4 3 4 6 7 7
7 9
>>>
Marketing
Sales
>>>
Sales
Marketing
Manufacturing Logistics Finance
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
7 Single department responsible for managing the overall Demand Planning

7
Finance

Futurcast
CPG
Food Companines
>>>
Smart Forecasts
MS Excel Manugistics i2
Forecast PRO 1
SAP APO Demantra Forecast PRO i2 Manugistics MS Excel Smart Forecasts Futurcast
Food Companines CPG 3 0 1 0 4 9 0 0 Food Companines CPG 7 7 6 8 5 7 Food Companines CPG 7 2 Food Companines CPG 2 6 2
4 0 0 0 1 8 0 1
Food Companines CPG 33% 50% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 44% 13% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 13% Food Companines CPG 78% 63% 78% 88% 67% 63% 89% 63% 56% 63% 78% 100% Food Companines CPG 78% 100% 22% 0% Food Companines CPG 22% 67% 22% 50% 88% 0%
Demantra SAP APO

4

Sales Planning
Marketing Planning
CPG
8 Food Companines 7
5 5 5 5
8
Manufacturing Planning
Logistics Planning
5 7 5 5 5 8
6 7 7
Financial Planning Budgeting 5
Yes No
Yes No
8 0

CPG
Not done
Food Companines
4 7 0
Manual
7 6

Automatic 4
2

CPG Food Companines
Other
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
Other
Single department responsible for managing the overall

7 2
Monthly
Food Companines CPG 9 Time buckets used to generate base/ statistical forecast. Weekly Monthly Other (describe) Weekly Monthly Other 8 2 0 Food Companines CPG 3 3 3 0 Food Companines CPG 0 3 5 0 2 7 0
Food Companines CPG 89% 25% 22% 88% 0% 0% Food Companines CPG 33% 50% 33% 38% 33% 0% 0% 13% Food Companines CPG 0% 33% 56% 0% 0% 63% 38% 0%
Weekly
2 8
10
Three Two One Other
4 3 0 1
How many years of history is used to generate base /statistical forecast?

CPG Other
1
Food Companines
11
Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe)
Three Years Two Years One Year Other
0 5 3 0
One
3
3 3
Two
12
Three
4 3
CPG Food Companines 5
Food Companines CPG Are special upcoming circumstances, that may affect demand, communicated to all stakeholders of the forecast?
Food Companines CPG

Sometimes 4
13
Yes No Sometimes
Yes No Sometimes
4 1 4 Food Companines CPG 7 4 9 3
3 0 5
44% 38% 11% 0% 44% 63% Food Companines CPG 78% 75% 63% 100% 63%
No
14
Marketing Plans
Marketing Plans
Yes
Competitive MarketCompetitive Assumptions Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions Sales Assumptions Inventory / Manufacturing Assumptions Inventory / Manufacturing Assumptions External Factors (economy, political, weather, consumption data, ) External Factors Legal / Regulatory Legal / Regulatory Other (describe) Other
5 44% 8 100% 5 33%
Other CPG 2 2
3
Food Companines
External Factors
3 2 0 Food Companines CPG
4 2 0
33% 50% 22% 25% 0% 0% Food Companines CPG
Legal / Regulatory
External Factors
4 5 8 4
5
Inventory / Manufacturing Sales Assumptions
15
Yes No
Yes No
5 1
4 0
56% 11%
50% 0%
Competitive Market
Marketing Plans
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
Sometimes Sometimes
8
4 33% 50% Food Companines CPG
Marketing Plans
3 Food Companines CPG
Single department responsible for managing the overall
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
Yes No Sometimes Yes No Sometimes
9
6 0 3
8
6 1 1 67% 0% 33% 75% 13% 13%
Single department responsible for managing the overall Are forecast assumptions communicated to all stakeholders of forecast?
CPG Sometimes 1 3 1 Food Companines
No
Yes
6 6
17
18
19
20
Is there only one standard unit of measure to be forecasted,
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
8 Singleonly department responsible managing the overall Is there one standard unit offor measure to be forecasted, across different departments?
Food Companines CPG 21 Is there only one standard unit of measure to be forecasted, across different departments? Yes No Yes No 2 7 Food Companines CPG 6 4 1 6 1 Food Companines CPG 0 3 5 0 1 4 1 Food Companines CPG 0 4 4 2 1 2 0 Food Companines CPG 3 8 0 1 0 0 Food Companines CPG 6 2
Food Companines CPG 22% 75% 78% 25% Food Companines CPG 67% 75% 44% 63% 11% 13% 67% 13% 11% 13% Food Companines CPG 0% 13%
2
CPG No
Food Companines
22
6 5 1 1 1
6
Yes
2
cases
23
Divisional / Company Level Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand)Product Level Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Item / SKU National Level Total Customer National Total Customer National Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe) Other
1 3 6 1 0 2 0

Other Customer / Item / SKU Level Customer / Product Group Level
Total Customer National CPG Food Companines
33% 38% 56% 75% 0% 13% 11% 0% 44% 25% 11% 0% Food Companines CPG 0% 0%
1 5
3 3
24
Item / SKU National Level Product Line / Product Group

Divisional / Company Level Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand)Product Level Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Item / SKU National Level Total Customer National Total Customer National Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe) Other
0 2 5 0 0 3 0
44% 25% 44% 63% 22% 0% 11% 0% 22% 38% 0% 0% Food Companines CPG 33% 38% 89% 75% 0% 13% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Food Companines CPG

CPG Never Sometimes Food Companines
25
3 6 1 0 0 0
Yearly
Quarterly
1 6
3 3
Monthly Weekly
26
Yes No
5 2 Food Companines CPG 7 0 2
8 0
56% 100% 22% 0% Food Companines CPG 78% 0% 22% 88% 0% 13%

Other WMAPE MAPE 1 2 1 4 CPG Food Companines
27
Yes No Sometimes
Yes No Sometimes
7 0 1
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
8
Food Companines CPG 7 0 4 2 1 8 0 4 3 0 0 44% 88% 0% 0% 56% 50% 11% 25% 11% 13% Food Companines CPG 67% 100% 33% 0% 22% 50% 33% 38% 11% 0% 33% 0% Food Companines CPG 0% 50%
MAPE MAE
Error / Bias
Food Companines CPG 28 How is the forecast accuracy / error measured? Error / Bias MAE MAPE WMAPE Other Error: A-F Error: F-A % Error: A-F/A % Error: A-F/F % Error: F-A/A % Error: F-A/F Error / Bias MAE MAPE WMAPE Other Error: A-F Error: F-A % Error: A-F/A % Error: A-F/F % Error: F-A/A % Error: F-A/F 4 0 5 1 1 Food Companines CPG 6 3 2 3 1 3 Food Companines CPG 0 2 5 0 1 2 2 Food Companines CPG 8 1 Food Companines CPG 7 2 2 0 1 1 2
4 Single department responsible for managing the overall 5
7 4
29
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error?

Nobody Senior Management Finance Team Supply / Procurement Team 1 CPG 1 1 1 2
2 2
2 Food Companines
30
Divisional / Company Level Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand)Product Level Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Item / SKU National Level Total Customer National Total Customer National Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe) Other (describe)
4 5 6 2 1 2 0
Sales Team
22% 63% 56% 75% 0% 25% 11% 13% 22% 25% 22% 0% Food Companines CPG 89% 75% 11% 13% Food Companines CPG 78% 22% 22% 0% 11% 11% 22% 88% 13% 25% 25% 0% 13% 13%
Marketing Team Demand Planning Team
Item / DC
7 target 20% MAPE, currently running at 407
31
Yes No
Yes No
6 1
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Marketing Team Sales Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Finance Team Senior Management Senior Management Nobody Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error?
7 1 2 2 0 1 1

CPG Food Companines
No 4
33
7
Yes
Food Companines CPG 34 Is past performance used to evaluate future forecast? Yes No Yes No 5 4 Food Companines CPG 7 2 Food Companines CPG 7 0
Food Companines CPG 56% 88% 44% CPG Food Companines #REF! 78% 88% 22% 13% Food Companines CPG
35
Yes No
Yes No
7 1
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
Yes No Yes No
9
7 2
8 Single department responsible for managing the overall

6 1 78% 22% 75% 13%
Food Companines CPG 38 Does Sales Group provide forecast for review during the S&OP process? Yes No Yes No 4 5 6 2
Food Companines CPG 44% 56% 75% 25%

No
CPG Food Companines
2 5
6
Yes
40
Food Companines CPG Who is responsible - within Sales Organization - for the forecast / data analysis? Sales Planner or Analyst Sales Planner or Analyst Trade Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst Trade Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst Marketing Analyst Marketing Analyst Demand Planner collaborating with Sales Demand Planner collaborating with Sales Other Other
Food Companines CPG
41
5 3 0 2 1 Food Companines CPG
3 2 0 5 2
56% 33% 0%
38% 25% 0%
22% 63% 11% 25% Food Companines CPG
42
Centralized - 1 analyst supporting all customers and all regions Centralized - 1 analyst supporting all customers and all regions
33%
25%
CPG
Food Comp anine s
CPG
Questions
Answers
Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 1 customer regions Centralized - all 1 analyst supporting 1 customer all regions Regional analyst supporting all customers region Regional in analyst supporting all customers in region Other Other
8 Single department responsible for managing the overall

2 3 1 2 1 2 22% 33% 11% 25% 13% 25%
Answers
Participation in monhtly process
Food Companines 2 Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast. Demand Planning Finance Demand Planning Finance Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement 7 7 3 4 7 9 7
>>>
Finance
>>>
Marketing
>>>
Sales
Answers
>>>
Yes No
10

CPG Other
3
Food Companines
One Year
11
5 5 3
Two Years
12
Three Years
13
Yes No Sometimes
14
Marketing Plans Competitive Market Assumptions
Assumptions Which building blocks do youSales incorporate into the creation of Inventory / Manufacturing Assumptions
CPG Food Companines 4 3
External Factors
External Factors (economy, political, weather, consumption data, ) Legal / Regulatory Other (describe)
Sometimes
No
15
Yes No
Yes
4 5

Sometimes
5
16
Answers
Are forecast assumptions communicated to all Are forecast assumptions communicated to all stakeholders stakeholders of forecast? Yes No Sometimes Describe the process of incorporating forecast for promotional activity:
17
18
19
20
Is there only one standard unit of measure to be forecasted,
What are the standard units of measure used to develop and
Participant Questions Answers Is there only one standard unit of measure to be forecasted, What are the standard units of measure used to develop and communicate forecasts?
Other - Cases 1 1 1 1 1
4
CPG
Food Companines
21
Yes No
Tonnage - volume Equivalent Units
22
dollars
Units
5 6 6
cases
23
Other Customer / Item / SKU Level Customer / Product Group Level
Total Customer National CPG Food Companines
2 1
2
24
Item / SKU National Level
4
2
Product Line / Product Group

25
26

Other (describe) CPG Food Companines 2 2 2
1
27
Yes No Sometimes
Customer / Item / SKU Level Customer / Product Group Level

Customer / Product Group Level Total Customer National
1
2 5 5
4 6
28
Item / SKU National Level Product Line / Product Group Divisional / Company Level
2
29
30
31
Yes No
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error?
33
34
Yes No
35
Yes No
Answers
Yes No
38
Does Sales Group provide forecast for review during the S&OP Does Sales Group provide forecast for review during the S&OP process? Yes No
Who is responsible - within Sales Organization - for the forecast / data analysis?
CPG Other Food Companines 2
Is the Sales Analyst /Planner functi

CPG Other Food Companines
Demand Planner collaborating with Sales

Marketing Analyst
5 2
Regional analyst supporting all customers in region Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 1 customer all regions
Trade Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst Sales Planner or Analyst
2 3 3 5
40
41
42

Answers
Demand Planning Finance Logistics / Distribution Marketing Production / Manufacturing Participation in monhtly process Sales Supply Chain / Procurement CPG Food Companines Demand Planning Finance 8 6 4 7 6 7 7 78% 78% 33% 44% 78% 100% 78%
CPG 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
>>>
Finance
>>>
Marketing
>>>
Sales
Answers
>>>
Yes No
10
11
12
13
Yes No Sometimes
14
External Factors
15
Yes No

Sometimes
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
17
18
19
20
21
Yes No
22
cases
23
24
25
26
27
Yes No Sometimes
28
29
30
31
Yes No
32
33
34
Yes No
35
Yes No
Answers
Yes No
38
Yes No
Food Companines 2
1 3 2 2 2
3
40
41
42

Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
CPG/FMCG
demand planning / supply planning matrix organization
Durable Goods
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast. 2 Demand Planning Finance Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast. Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement Describe roles and responsibilities of forecast process participants: >>> Demand Planning R,A,C C I R R C,I R,A,C C I I R R, I R,A,C
A R I R R I
History cleansing, statistical base line, fcst overrides, gather information from functional partners, recommend consensus forecast, generate fcst error reports and meeting decks, own and facilitate dp / scm meetings, and pre-sop and exec. sop; resp for MID MONTH call submit ion Participate in Pre-SOP and Exec Meetings, generate final P/L reports (GAP analysis) Marketing fcst, building blocks report, market assumptions, ship/share analysis (consumption), KAMs - Sales LE via TPM (Demantra) to SAP APO and Sales Strategy Group
Demand planning/supply planning Overall responsibility and matrix organization - prepare baseline accountability statistical forecasts, load overrides, new product forecasts and promotions. Own key dp / scm meetings
>>>
Finance
>>>
Marketing
Budget versus plan / observe / input Customer into their portion of S&OP cycle from dp meetings provide building blocks - promo, TV, Customer npi,
>>>
Sales
promotions all price driven - info to DP/SCM team via Trade marketing / excel
Collaboration
Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
Point of contact between Sales and Demand Planning - have separate meetings with KAMs pre Demand Planning Meetings to reconcile and validate KAMs input into cycle; provide NPI input (pipeline shape, size, timeline) and Promo grid with time / volume / customer
CPG/FMCG
represents field sales - provides input into the forecast especially around the promotions
Durable Goods
>>>
supply constraints, out of stock DP/SCM - matrix organization updates, product availability, promotions build status (via 3rd party) and Costco pallet build
Customer
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
F0urrier algorithm
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 0 1 0 1
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
0 1 0 out of stock and back order fill - visual Knowing the business, experience based on knows situation - manual driven - no tools deployed to speed adjustment to what would be a up the exception process normal demand based on past performance; outliers - based on validation of past 3 years of history for any unusual activity - visual + manual override only
0 1 0
1 1 0 Use an outlier process to define future outliers. Originates with Sales based on discussions with their accounts. Gut check done internally before loading into the forecast. Anything tha could not be predicted by historical performance is considered an outlier.Historical outliers are usually decomposed within the forecasting systems. Cancellations etc. are actually manually put back into history in the month they were originally ordered in.
Participant
normal demand based on past performance; outliers - based on validation of past 3 years of history for any unusual activity C1- visual + manual override only 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
Gut check done internally before loading into the forecast. Anything tha could not be predicted by historical performance is considered an C3 outlier.Historical outliers are usually 6/29/2011 decomposed within the forecasting systems. Cancellations etc. are Durable Goods actually manually put back into history in the month they were originally ordered in.
1 1 0
1 0 0
6 months in weekly buckets
0 1 0
10
1 0 0 0
0 0 0 1
1 0 0 0
11
Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) all monthly (derived from weekly base); financial meetings (GAP/PreSOP and Exec) run in current year months, quarters, total, next year quarters and total only format.
0 1 0 0 all planning activity - weeks reporting and meetings - months
0 0 1 0 no, always monthly but may report quarterly fort he out months
promotions
0 1 0 0
12
13
list / delist , competitive info
AC Nielsen, Ship to Share, Fan Flu data, POS for top 5 customers Private label not clearly communicated Which building blocks do you incorporate into the
Yes No Sometimes
0 0 1
1 0 1
0 0 1
14
creation of the forecast?
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
1 1 1 0
External Factors
1 1 0
0 0 0
risks and opportunities report
1 0 0
15
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0
Durable Goods
1 0 0 Manual forecast override to the forecast, hopefully at lead time, based on communication from sales. At accounts that repeat year after year, this data is part of the history.
17
Bonus >>> allocation sheet by Trade marketing provides regular customer (from sales) >>> validated updates of field activities - all promo against known performance from price driven recent activity. Flyer activity >>> not good info; Prepacks >>> best of three working with trade customization (part of supply chain) planners who have direct info from field sales - DP owns phasing and cannibalization factors applied to base forecasts.
18
New to the world >>> approx. 20% incremental; APO configured to display and combine dependent and independent demands on same base sku and project them into the future when cannibalization of the future date promos needs to be applied planned has visual in history that shows impact of past promos on base stock. Clearly defined and executed NPI process - pre approval by cross functional team required to launch first forecast modeling followed by go/no go decision. Once go obtained dp works with marketing and sales on shape of the base and pipeline volume that is then shared with supply chain.
Typically not applied by dp - most of it Based on historical performance. Lifts seasonal; all other recommended and and declines due to competitive supplied by trade marketing based on factors are maintained at accounts their analysis.
During the demand review meeting all info received / reviewed on a monthly basis. Most on NPI falls into late Quarter 1 every years
Based on similar price points in similar categories. Units/store/week + pipeline fills etc. Manually overridden. Sometimes incorporating seasonal indices.
19
Marketing / sales driven information - Brand manager provides expected % typical by sku and % impact of new product on specific skus. Dp will then apply these %s to the base forecasts.
Based on historical performance
20
skus. Dp will then apply these %s to the base forecasts.
Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
Durable Goods
21
Yes No
1 0
0 1
cases
0 1
22
Units dollars Equivalent Units Tonnage - volume Other (describe)
1 1 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 1
1 1 0 0 0
23
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 1 0
only two base customers defined - loblaws and all other
0 0 0 0 0 1 0
24
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0
25
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
26
1 0
1 0
1 0
27
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
28 How is the forecast accuracy / error measured?
Answers
CPG/FMCG
1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
CPG/FMCG
1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Durable Goods
0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
29
base for MAPE sku/customer
30
30% Mape Target - +/- 4.8% bias = 5 months into year - not meeting the numbers
1 1 1 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 0
MAPE 28%, running at 45%
1 0 1 0 0 1 0
31
Yes No
1 0
10-
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error? Demand planners
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 All participants of S&OP process
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 Demand Planning
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
33
34
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
35
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
36
Is an integrated score-card used in your organization?
Yes No
1 0
10-
Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
Durable Goods
Monthly financial call, future outliers
Sales LE (latest estimate) by month for Promo timing, price point; listings, curr fiscal year by account. delistings Promotions, Bonus, NPI, pipeline initial and changes, list/delist/ competitive activity, abnormal account activity
mostly promo only
38
Yes No
1 0 Customer bottom up based in monthly meeting / info between sales / buyer. CPFR with WM only, not used in DP regularly. Built in TPM and sales strategy manager validates rollup with KAMs and then goes to DP meeting.
0 1 Filed sales meet with buyers, agree on promo activity by account and region, cascade the info to regional director of sales and to trade marketing. Trade marketing communicates the promo grid to dp for forecast adjustments. Incorporated as part of demand planning process. More a function of our ability to ship plus new orders. There are two numbers but the demand planning number is used operationally.
0 1
n/a
Based on experience, they explain why they feel the changes / volumes should be accepted.
large accounts only
At larger accounts they have access to internal metrics (i.e. category, foot traffic)
40
41
KAM
1 1 0
large accounts only
1 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 0
0 0
42
Centralized - 1 analyst supporting all customers and all regions Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 1 customer all regions Regional analyst supporting all customers in region Other
a few specific customers only
1 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
Participant
C1 5/31/2011
C2 5/31/2011
C3 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
Durable Goods
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast. 2 Demand Planning Finance Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast. Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement Describe roles and responsibilities of forecast process participants: >>> Demand Planning A C C C R R I A I C C I R I
A C C C C C A
development of base line forecasts with input from other depts
Provides baseline forecast and analytics of Sales forecast
Provides baseline forecast and analytics of Sales forecast
>>>
Finance
input
Provides Budget
Provides Budget
>>>
Marketing
input
Provides assumptions for marketing activities
Provides assumptions for marketing activities
>>>
Sales
helps develop base line with additional lift / cannibalization
Provides assumption of sales activities /Consolidates Sales Forecast (Base forecast + marketing/sales assumptions)
Provides assumption of sales activities /Consolidates Sales Forecast (Base forecast + marketing/sales assumptions)
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
helps develop base line with additional lift / cannibalization
CPG/FMCG
Provides per category forecast factoring in secondary sales, base forecast is the one from DP
CPG/FMCG
Link between sales and DP/SCM/Marketing - national level view
>>>
will receive the forecast
Recipient of the final frozen forecast/reviews for supportability and/or supply issues
Owns the forecast
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
excel used to build the forecast which is uploaded APO F0urrier into algorithm
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 1
0 1 1 1 0 1
0 1 0 0 1 1
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
Automatic Manual Not done we conmpare with the previous period, check the sales coampaigns, insert plan etc. to make sure if the number are 'realistic' or written by mistake
0 1 0 time series analysis using seasonal decomposition / smoothing of forecast consulting with Sales and Marketing versus previous plans
1 0 0
1 1 0 Outliers supposed to be identifyied automatically based on ABC-XYZ principle, but it does not work well. In project environment supply palnner often has to manually deduct onetime projects to prevent corrupt forecsts.
number are 'realistic' or written by mistake
Marketing versus previous plans
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
project environment supply palnner often has to manually deduct onetime projects to prevent corrupt forecsts. C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
0 1 0
0 1
0 1 0
10
1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
11
Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) only monthly
0 1 0 0 only monthly 12 months out
0 0 1 0 only monthly
0 1 0 0
12
promotions
promotions
13
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
1 0 0
0 0 1
14
0 0 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 0 1 0
External Factors
1 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
15
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0 unconstrained demand figures are collected from sales managers and the numbers are challenged in the demand meeting with historical data, cannibalization effect, marketing support, etc.
CPG/FMCG
0 0 1
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0
a month/period where promotion was Regular forecast + promotion uplift used is isolated and compared to the expectations prior year or average monthly performance without promotional activity. Whatever is the increment is the possible lift. More observations solidify basis of lift.
17
Historical data is used as well as the expectation of total growth assumption from marketing and sales and the figures are discussed in the demand meeting
Judgemental analysis is made to assess cannibalization by looking at possible cannibalization because of product or promotional activities.
100% cannibalization (?)
18
sales and trade marketing give their Basic benchmarking of new product to initial sales assumptions based on like products + judgemental factors sales and marketing input and the numbers are discussed in the demand meeting
If preceeding model is known, statitistics is used, or applied existing forecast of old model, if no preceeding model is known, then assumptions of marketing and sales are used
19
historical data is used as well as the expectation of total growth assumption from marketing and sales and the numbers are discussed in the demand meeting
Judgemental analysis is made using N/A product specification as a basis if new product has same features as existing one, a cannibalization factor is used.
20
assumption from marketing and sales product has same features as existing and the numbers are discussed in the one, a cannibalization factor is used. demand meeting
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
21
Yes No
1 0
1 0
cases
1 0
22
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
23
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
24
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
25
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
26
1 0
1 0
1 0
27
Yes No Sometimes
1 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 0
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
CPG/FMCG
1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
CPG/FMCG
1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
29
30
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
+/- 3% bias 80% or better MAPE
0 1 1 0 0 0 0
MAPE 28%, running at 45% Bias +/- 5% MAPE 30%
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
31
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error? demand manager and supply chain director
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 demand planning
1 0 1 0 0 0 0 demand planning team
1 0 0 1 0 0 0
33
34
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
35
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
36
Yes No
1 0
1 0
1 0
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
their forecast of sales, promotional targets, insert and campaign plans are communicated. Trade marketing collects and reviews and where necessary revises data
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
Sales organization factors in customer's forecast secondary sales data from distributor and marketing / sales plans using baseline forecast.
mostly promo only
38
Yes No
1 0 demand cycle starts with a predemand process during which sales managers input their assumptions before the demand meeting. Their feedback is collected and evaluated by the demand manager and all the concerns/feedbacks listed to be mentioned in the demand meeting for open discussion
1 0
1 0
if a certain SKU or category was cited Total of customer's forecasts adjusted during demand review that is needs expertly by the past records and trend to be checked - sales will be the one responsible for adjusting the forecast while demand will review the adjusted forecast.
40
sales only use historical data and their secondary sales and other growth assumptions in existing assumptions which are sometimes products. For launches, marketing unclear or baseless. assumptions, large accounts marketing only plans, competition etc. is evaluated and used.
Data collection and validations versus past events, trend and consumption
41
KAM
0 0 0
large accounts only
0 1 0 1 0
0 0 0 1 0do not have one
1 0
42
1 sales analyst and demand planner handling 0 there is a local country forecast. Regional demand planner oversees or supports local dp for all markets handled. 0 0 0 0 0 1
there is a local sale country forecast. R supports local dp fo
0 1 0
Participant
C4 6/29/2011
C5 7/4/2011
C6 7/6/2011
Questions
Answers
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
CPG/FMCG
Summary Participant
C7 6/29/2011 C8 6/2/2011 Total no. of responses:
Questions
Answers
steel products, i.e.. Fasteners to Home Depot.

0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Clothing
8
1 0 0 1 0 1 0 Demand Planning Finance Logistics / Distribution Marketing Production / Manufacturing Sales Supply Chain / Procurement CPG 7 0 0 1 0 1 3 88% 0% 0% 13% 0% 13% 38% CPG
Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast. 2 Demand Planning Finance Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast. Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement Describe roles and responsibilities of forecast process participants: >>> Demand Planning A A R C A demand planning / supply planning matrix organization
manual tally for As (last in Maple Leaf) Demand Planning Finance

demand planning / supply Manufacturing planning matrix Marketing organization
14 175% 2 25% 0 1 3 7 4 0% 13% 38% 88% 50%
8 6 4 7 6 7 7
Logistics
Sales Supply / Procurement
develop base line forecasts
Responsible for maintaining integrity of demand plan (forecast) and the Master Production schedule (MPS) along with all corresponding systems ( Futurcast / GEAC ). This team issues all purchase orders ( work orders ).
>>>
Finance
Financial plan is based on detailed sku level demand plan. none Responsible for portfolio management with emphasis on new styles as well as discontinuation process. Provide all initial new style forecasts as well as play active role in compiling forecasts by customer, promotional events & clearance sales.
>>>
Marketing
>>>
Sales
adjust for market conditions
Summary Participant
Questions
Answers
Clothing
>>>
Supply / Procurement Responsible for outsourcing to 40 worldwide manufacturing facilities all customer requirements as defined by the demand plan and the subsequent purchase orders generated by Demand & Operations Planning team. 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 SAP APO Demantra Forecast PRO i2 Manugistics MS Excel Futurcast - Forecast engine that is Smart Forecasts completely integrated to Futurcast
MRP system (GEAC). F0urrier algorithm
excel used to build the forecast which is uploaded into APO
CPG
CPG
CPG 4 50% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 13% 8 100% 0 0% 1 13% CPG 5 63% 7 88% 5 63% 5 63% 5 63% 8 100% CPG 8 100% 0 0% CPG 4 7 0 50% 88% 0%
0 0 1 0 1 1
1 1 1 0 1 1
Budgeting Financial Planning Logistics Planning Manufacturing Planning Marketing Planning Sales Planning CPG
Yes No
1 0
1 0
Yes No CPG
Automatic Manual Not done nave process, very qualitative
0 1 0
1 1 0 Demand history is updated on a monthly basis (automated ) and validated by the Demand & Operations Planning Team. Outliers are detected and smoothed out by automated portion of the statistical forecast as well as by analysts that use forecast accuracy analysis and interaction with the Sales team (POS data) to ensure that it is indeed an anomaly and not a trend.
Participant
C7 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
Operations Planning Team. Outliers are detected and smoothed out by automated portion of the statistical forecast as well asC8 by analysts that use forecast accuracy analysis and 6/2/2011 interaction with the Sales team (POS data) to ensureClothing that it is indeed an anomaly and not a trend.
Summary
Total no. of responses:
CPG 9 Time buckets used to generate base/ statistical forecast. Weekly Monthly Other (describe) 0 1 0 0 1 0 Weekly Monthly 6 months in weekly buckets Other (describe) CPG 10 How many years of history is used to generate base /statistical forecast? Three Two One Other (describe) 0 1 0 0 Three Two One Other (describe) CPG 11 How far out do you forecast - forecast horizon? Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) 0 0 1 0 No - entire Financial Planning and Demand management process is based on monthly forecasts. Weekly data is volatile. 0 1 0 0 Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) 0 5 3 0 4 3 0 1 2 7 0
CPG 25% 88% 0% CPG 50% 38% 0% 13% CPG 0% 63% 38% 0%
1 0 0
12
promotions
13
CPG list / delist , competitive info Yes No Sometimes 0 0 0 0 0 1 Yes No Sometimes CPG Marketing Plans Competitive Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions Inventory / Manufacturing Assumptions External Factors (economy, political, weather, consumption data, ) Legal / Regulatory Other (describe) 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 Marketing Plans Competitive Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions 6 3 0 5
CPG
38% 0% 63% CPG 75%
14
5 63% 8 100% 5 63%
Inventory 1 / Manufacturing Assumptions
External Factors
0 0 0
0 0 0
External Factors Legal / Regulatory Other (describe)

4 2 0 CPG
50% 25% 0% CPG
15
Yes No Sometimes
0 0 1
0 0 1
quarterly
Yes No Sometimes CPG
4 0 4
50% 0% 50% CPG
Summary Participant
C7 6/29/2011 C8 6/2/2011
quarterly
Questions
Answers
Yes No Sometimes

0 1 0 manually adjust the product group (top down)
Clothing
1 0 0 Promotional events are injected into the on going statistical forecast based on events submitted by Sales & Marketing and tracked to ensure fill rate is 100%. They are submitted in lieu of lead times ( 4 months ) unless safety stock or surplus inventory covers the event. Yes No Sometimes
8
6 1 1 75% 13% 13%
17
none
The assumption is that the on going statistical forecast is reduced by at least 25% and up to 50% depending on the size of the event in units relative to the historical annual volume for that product.
18
19
use similar product groups to simulate Forecasts for new styles are based 100% on Sales & Marketing assessment of the volume potential of the new style being launched. Once retail check out data is available ,forecasts are adjusted to align with actual customer demand by the Demand & Operations Planning Team
not being done
20
The demand plan is calibrated so that the % of sales derived from new products is in line with historical data which for our business is approximately 20%. On going down trending styles are discontinued to make space for the new styles. Our total sales volume growth is always in the 5 to 10% range regardless of how many new products are launched.
Participant
C7 6/29/2011
Questions
Answers
products is in line with historical data which for our business is approximately 20%. On going down trending styles are discontinued to C8 make space for the new styles. Our 6/2/2011 total sales volume growth is always in the 5 to 10% range regardless of how Clothing many new products are launched.
Summary
CPG 21 Is there only one standard unit of measure to be forecasted, across different departments? Yes No 1 0 1 0
cases
CPG 6 2 75% 25% CPG 75% 63% 13% 13% 13% CPG 13% 38% 75% 13% 0% 25% 0% CPG 0% 25% 63% 0% 0% 38% 0% CPG 38% 75% 13% 0% 0% 0% CPG
Yes No CPG
22
0 0 0 1 0
1 1 0 0 0
Units dollars Equivalent Units Tonnage - volume Other (describe) CPG
6 5 1 1 1
23
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
only two base customers defined - loblaws and all otherDivisional / Company Level
1 3 6 1 0 2 0 CPG
Product Line 1 / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level 1 Item / SKU National Level 1 Total Customer National 0 Customer / Product Group Level 0 Customer / Item / SKU Level 0 Other (describe)
24
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 2 5 0 0 3 0 CPG
Product Line 0 / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level 0 Item / SKU National Level 0 Total Customer National 0 Customer / Product Group Level 1 Customer / Item / SKU Level 0 Other (describe)
25
1 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 0 0
Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Sometimes Never CPG
3 6 1 0 0 0
26
1 0
1 0
Yes No CPG
8 100% 0 0% CPG 7 0 1 88% 0% 13% CPG
27
Yes No Sometimes
0 0 1
1 0 0
Yes No Sometimes CPG
Summary Participant
Questions
Answers

1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Clothing
1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 Error / Bias MAE MAPE WMAPE Other CPG Error: A-F Error: F-A % Error: A-F/A % Error: A-F/F % Error: F-A/A % Error: F-A/F base for MAPE sku/customer
8
7 0 4 2 1 8 0 4 3 0 0 CPG 4 5 6 2 1 2 0 CPG 88% 0% 50% 25% 13% CPG 100% 0% 50% 38% 0% 0% CPG 50% 63% 75% 25% 13% 25% 0% CPG 75% 13% CPG 88% 13% 25% 25% 0% 13% 13%
29
30
Divisional / Company Level Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Bias +/- 5% Total Customer MAPE 30% National Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe)
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
MAPE 28%, (i.e. running at 45% Product Line 1 / Product Group Brand) Level 1 Item / SKU National Level 1 Total Customer National 0 Customer / Product Group Level 0 Customer / Item / SKU Level 0 Other (describe)
31
Yes No
0 1
1 0
Yes No CPG
6 1
32
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error? Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody Who is ultimately Accountable for the Final Forecast Accuracy / Error? -
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 (Demand & Operations Planning Team) & Sales Team
1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Demand Planning Team Marketing Team Sales Team Supply / Procurement Team Finance Team Senior Management Nobody
7 1 2 2 0 1 1
33
CPG 34 Is past performance used to evaluate future forecast? Yes No 0 0 1 0 Yes No CPG 35 Do forecasters look for ways to systematically improve the forecasting process? Yes No 0 1 1 0 Yes No CPG 36 Is an integrated score-card used in your organization? Yes No 0 1 1 0 Yes No 6 1 7 1 7 0
CPG 88% 0% CPG 88% 13% CPG 75% 13%
Summary Participant
Questions
Answers
Clothing
product group, customer detail roll up New styles forecasts, POS data, Retail link ( Wal mart ).
mostly promo only
CPG 38 Does Sales Group provide forecast for review during the S&OP process? Yes No 1 0 Quarterly, customer by product group by division, rolled up. Monthly collaborative meeting with Planning adjust numbers on the fly. 1 0 Demand and Operations Planning team will provide the Sales team with detailed snapshot of on going forecasts that are based on actual demand. Sales team will validate and adjust if they have information from the field that will have a material impact on the forecasts. ( i.e. Wal Mart to open 7 new stores ). Yes No 6 2
CPG 75% 25%
none
Mainly POS ( retail level ) data and direct input from buyer at the retailer.
large accounts only
40
CPG Who is responsible - within Sales Organization - for the forecast / data analysis? Sales Planner or Analyst Trade Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst Marketing Analyst Demand Planner collaborating with large accounts only Sales do not have one Other
KAM manager account
CPG
41
0 0 0 1 0
Sales Planner or Analyst
3 2 0 5 2 CPG
38% 25% 0% 63% 25% CPG
Trade 0 Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst 0 Marketing Analyst Demand 0 Planner collaborating with Sales 1 Other
42
Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 0 all customers and all regions
25%
0 0 0
Centralized - 1 analyst 1 supporting 1 customer all regions Regional analyst 0 supporting all customers in region 0 Other
2 1 2
25% 13% 25%
Summary Participant
Questions
Answers
Clothing
Participant
3 have shared ownnership, 1 sales and 1 supply chain only - all other demand planning
Questions
Answers
Single department demand responsible for managing the overall planning / forecast function. supply planning matrix
88%
organization
38% 0% 0% 13% 0% 13%
Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast. 2 Demand Planning Finance Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast. Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement Describe roles and responsibilities of forecast process participants: >>> Demand Planning
25% 0% 38% 13%
demand planning / supply planning matrix organization demand planning / supply planning matrix organization
Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast.

175%
88% 50%
>>>
Finance
>>>
Marketing
>>>
Sales
Participant
Questions
Answers

100%
>>>
50% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%
F0urrier algorithm

100%
88% 63% 63% 63% 63%
Budgeting
Financial Planning
Logistics Planning
Manufacturing Marketing Planning Planning
Sales Planning
Yes No

88%
50%

0%
Automatic
Manual
Not done

88%
Participant
Questions
Answers
25%
0%
Weekly Monthly Other (describe) buckets
6 months in weekly
10
How many years of history is used to generate base /statistical forecast?

50%
How far out do you forecast 63%
38%
11

0% Three Two One
13% 0% Other (describe)

Three Years Two Years One Year
12
63%
promotions
13
Yes No Sometimes
38%
14
Marketing Plans
Yes
0% No Sometimes
Competitive Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions Inventory / Manufacturing Assumptions External Factors (economy, political, weather, consumption data, ) Legal / Regulatory Other (describe)
100% 75%
Are previous assumptions / building blocks review their validity assessed on a monthly basis?
50%
External Factors
63%
63%
50% 25% 0%
15
Yes No Sometimes
0% Yes No
Participant
Questions
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
Are forecast assumptions communicated to all stakeholders of forecast?

75%
17
13%
13%
Yes
No
Sometimes
18
19
20
Participant
Questions
Answers What are the standard units of measure used to develop and communicate forecasts?
75%
21
63%
Yes No
cases
22
13%
13%
13%
Units
dollars
Equivalent Units Tonnage - volume Other (describe)

only two base customers
23
At what level of detail is statistical base line forecast defined - loblaws and all other developed?
75%
At what level of detail is forecast adjusted / overr during your monthly cycle?
63%
38%
25% 13% 13%
25% 0% 0% 0%
0%
24

75%
25
38%
13% 0% Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly 0% Sometimes 0% Never
26
88%
27
Yes No Sometimes
50%
Participant
Questions
Answers
25% 13% 0% Error / Bias MAE MAPE WMAPE Other
29

75% 63% 50%
30
25%
25% 13% 0%
Whose performance is linked to forecast accuracy / error?

31 Is a target forecast accuracy / error established? Yes No
88%
32
25%
13%
25%
13% 13%
0%
33
34
Yes No
35
Yes No
36
Yes No
Participant
Questions
Answers
mostly promo only
38
Yes No
75%

25%
Yes
No

large accounts only
Who is responsible - within Sales Organization - for the forecast / data analysis?
63%
40
38% 25% 25%

KAM
41
0% Sales Planner or Trade Marketing / Sales Strategy Analyst Marketing Analyst Demand Planner collaborating with Sales Other
large accounts Analyst only

42 Is the Sales Analyst /Planner function: Centralized - 1 analyst supporting all customers and all regions Centralized - 1 analyst supporting 1 customer all regions Regional analyst supporting all customers in region Other
25% 25% 25% a few specific customers
only
13%
Centralized - 1 analyst Centralized - 1 analyst Regional analyst supporting all supporting 1 supporting all customers and all customer all regions customers in region
Other
Participant
Questions
Answers
supporting all customers and all regions
supporting 1 customer all regions
supporting all customers in region
Participant
Questions
Answers
Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast. 2 Demand Planning Finance Functional groups ACCOUNTABLE for final forecast. Logistics Manufacturing Marketing Sales Supply / Procurement Describe roles and responsibilities of forecast process participants: >>> Demand Planning
demand planning / supply planning matrix organization demand planning / supply planning matrix organization
>>>
Finance
>>>
Marketing
>>>
Sales
Participant
Questions
Answers
>>>
F0urrier algorithm
Yes No
Participant
Questions
Answers
10
How many years of history is used to generate base How far out do you forecast - forecast horizon? /statistical forecast? Three Two One Other (describe)
38%
11

0%
One Year Other (describe)
12
promotions
13
Yes No Sometimes
14
Marketing Plans Competitive Market Assumptions Sales Assumptions Are previous assumptions / building blocks reviewed and Inventory / Manufacturing their validity assessed on a monthly basis? Assumptions External Factors (economy, political, weather, consumption data, ) Legal / Regulatory Other (describe)
50%
External Factors
15
Yes No Sometimes
Sometimes
Participant
Questions
Answers
Yes No Sometimes
17
18
19
20
Participant
Questions
Answers
21
Yes No
cases
22
23
At what level of detail is forecast adjusted / overridden Divisional / Company Level during your monthly cycle?
Product Line / Product Group (i.e. Brand) Level Item / SKU National Level Total Customer National Customer / Product Group Level Customer / Item / SKU Level Other (describe)
38%
0%
0%
0%
24
25
26
27
Yes No Sometimes
Participant
Questions
Answers
29
30
31
Yes No
32
33
34
Yes No
35
Yes No
36
Yes No
Participant
Questions
Answers
mostly promo only
38
Yes No

large accounts only
40
41
KAM
large accounts only
42
Participant
Questions
Answers

CPG FMCG Food Benchmark Study

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Participant Questions

1 Single department responsible for managing the overall forecast function.

Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast.

Demand Planning Finance

R,A,C C I R,A R,A C,I

R,A A I R,A I R,A I

R,A I R,A R,A R,I

Generate baseline forecast

Baseline forecast, statistical modeling, fcst overrides and maintenance

Budget and Latest Estimates

Provide customer/ competitive

Tools used to generate & update forecast.

Which planning activities align their plans to the forecast?

Are forecasts regularly distributed to functional groups?

Sales history used for statistical forecast - outlier handling.

Automatic Manual Not done

Describe methodology used to detect / define outliers:

Participant Questions Answers

Time buckets used to generate base/ statistical forecast.

Weekly Monthly Other (describe)

How far out do you forecast - forecast horizon?

Three Years Two Years One Year Other (describe) No

Participant Questions Answers

Describe the process of incorporating forecast for promotional activity:

Describe the process of incorporating forecast for new products:

Participant Questions Answers

Units dollars Equivalent Units Tonnage - volume Other - Cases

At what level of detail is statistical base line forecast developed?

How often do you communicate forecast to senior levels of the organization?

Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Sometimes Never

Is forecast accuracy / error currently measured?

Participant Questions Answers

How is the forecast accuracy / error measured?

Forecast error calculations Actual = A, Forecast = F

At what level of product hierarchy is forecast accuracy / error reported?

Is a target forecast accuracy / error established?

Is past performance used to evaluate future forecast?

Do forecasters look for ways to systematically improve the forecasting process?

List information / data provided by sales organization: 37

Describe SALES FORECAST process (Sales Organization): 39

What analysis do sales provide to support their data / forecasts?

Sales performance per channel and latest estimates figures.

Very little, gut feel mostly

Is the Sales Analyst /Planner function:

Centralized - 1 analyst supporting all customers and all regions

Participant Questions Answers

Please list the functional groups who collaborate on final forecast.

Demand Planning Finance

R,A I I C,A C,A C,A

Collaborate with sales to create a forecast

Generation of bottom-up, SKU volumes

obtain data from customers

Tools used to generate & update forecast.

APO replacing Manugistics

Parts of business on APO parts on legacy Manugistics

Which planning activities align their plans to the forecast?

Are forecasts regularly distributed to functional groups?

Sales history used for statistical forecast - outlier handling.

Automatic Manual Not done

Describe methodology used to detect / define outliers:

Participant Questions Answers

Time buckets used to generate base/ statistical forecast.

Weekly Monthly Other (describe)

How far out do you forecast - forecast horizon?