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What scientists know about swine flu

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bind to and what we see is that it is binding to the upper respiratory
tract rather than deep in the lungs."

When a flu virus binds to the H1N1

upper respiratory tract, it tends to Can spread between humans
cause mild illness but can be Attaches to receptors in the upper
easily spread as people cough and respiratory tract causing mild
sneeze, Professor Barclay illness
explains. A pandemic is thought to be
imminent
If a virus binds further down in
the lungs, it tends to cause much more severe illness, as in the case
of the H5N1 avian flu virus which has caused concern in recent
years.

"With the H1 gene we also look at the cleavage site," she adds.

"The virus has to be cut into two pieces to be active and it uses an
enzyme in the host to do that.

"Most influenza viruses are restricted to the respiratory tract

because they use enzymes in the lungs.

"But some, like H5 viruses can evolve to cut into two pieces outside
the lungs, so they can replicate outside the respiratory tract."

Analysis

These initial indications are largely guesswork from looking at the

genetic sequence of the virus and comparing that to what is known
from work on other influenza viruses.

It will take weeks and months of biological analysis to properly get a

handle on the potential of the H1N1 virus.

The team at Mill Hill, one of four World Health Organisation's

centres for influenza research will be working in close collaboration
with the Health Protection Agency who are carrying out testing in
the UK, and their findings will also feed into the development of a
potential vaccine.

Soon, the Wellcome Trust Sanger

Institute in Cambridge will begin
the genetic sequencing of the
virus and will also be monitoring
any mutations or changes in how
virulent it is.
What this outbreak does
highlight is how difficult it is to
predict new pandemic strains
Professor Jonathan Ball, Nottingham
University

However, there is one other reassuring aspect about what is known

so far.

That is there seems to be nothing unusual as yet in another protein

in the centre of the virus, called NS1, which is linked to the strength
of the immune response the virus produces.

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BBC NEWS | Health | What scientists know about swine flu http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8028371.stm

parts of H5N1 may not happen in the future.

"That's the trouble - you can't predict."

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