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Resolving the South China Sea Dispute:

Legal Regimes and Realpoli(k

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presenta?on to Workshop on The South East Asia Sea Dispute Australian Business College The University of New South Wales, Kensington November 30, 2013

Outline

Geo-strategic overview UN Conven?on on Law of the Sea Claimants Associa?on of Southeast Asian Na?ons (ASEAN)/China and the South China Sea, 1992-2013

Geo-Strategic Overview

Geo-Strategic Overview Three physical features •   Paracel Islands •   Macclesfield Bank •   Spratly

Three physical features Paracel Islands Macclesfield Bank Spratly Islands

Natural Resources

Hydrocarbon resources

Oil proven reserves Est. = 7.7 billion barrels Oil es?mates R = 28-213 billion barrels Natural gas es?mates Est. = 266 trillion cubic feet

Fisheries

Deple?on due to over fishing and pollu?on Fishermen going further south to disputed waters

Sea Lines of Communica?on

Sea Lines of Communica?on
Sea Lanes
Sea Lanes

UN Conven?on on Law of the Sea

A Cons'tu'on for the world’s Oceans Does not address sovereignty claims Focus on mari'me jurisdic'on Exclusive Economic Zones Con'nental Shelf Archipelagic state Islands/rocks/features Interna'onal Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

High Seas Military ac?vi?es contested by China and the US Innocent passage

High Seas

Military ac?vi?es contested by China and the US

High Seas Military ac?vi?es contested by China and the US Innocent passage
High Seas Military ac?vi?es contested by China and the US Innocent passage

Innocent

passage

Claimants: •   Taiwan •   China •   Vietnam •   Philippines •  

Claimants:

Taiwan China Vietnam Philippines Malaysia Brunei

Overlapping mari?me zones •   EEZs based on UNCLOS •   China’s claim to ’historic

Overlapping

mari?me

zones

EEZs based on UNCLOS China’s claim to ’historic rights’

Features Occupied/Marked

Features Occupied/Marked

Physical Occupa?on

Country

Features Occupied

Vietnam

21-26

Philippines

8-10

China

7-8

Malaysia

5-7

Taiwan

1-2

Brunei

0

PARACEL ISLANDS Jan. 1974 China Seizes Crescent Group from South Vietnam y
PARACEL ISLANDS
Jan. 1974 China Seizes Crescent Group from South Vietnam y

Woody Island/ Yongxing (China)

Woody Island/ Yongxing (China)

Sansha City, Woody Island

Sansha City, Woody Island
South Johnson Reef (lee) and Fiery Cross Reef (below) March 1988 China and Vietnam fought

South Johnson Reef (lee) and Fiery Cross Reef (below)

March 1988 China and Vietnam fought a naval engagement. China occupied South Johnson and Fiery Cross Reefs

Reef (below) March 1988 China and Vietnam fought a naval engagement. China occupied South Johnson and
Mischief Reef (Philippines) China occupied Mischief Reef late 1994/early 1995.
Mischief Reef (Philippines)
China occupied Mischief Reef late 1994/early 1995.

ASEAN/China & the South China Sea

1 st ASEAN Statement on South China Sea, July

1992

1994/95 China occupies Mischief Reef 2 nd ASEAN Statement on the South China Sea, March 1995

ASEAN-China nego?a?ons on COC, 1995-2000

exchange draes of their Codes of Conduct

ASEAN-China & South China Sea

China and ASEAN adopt Declara?on on Conduct of Par?es in the South China Sea (DOC), November 4, 2002 10. The Par?es concerned reaffirm that the adop?on of a code of conduct in the South China Sea would further promote peace and stability in the region and agree to work, on the basis of consensus, towards the eventual ajainment of this objec?ve.

DOC Building Trust and Confidence

Holding dialogues and exchanges
Holding dialogues and exchanges
Humane treatment danger/distress
Humane treatment danger/distress
Voluntary no?fica?on of exercises
Voluntary no?fica?on of exercises
Exchange of relevant informa?on
Exchange of relevant informa?on

DOC Coopera?ve Ac?vi?es

Marine environmental protec?on
Marine environmental protec?on
Marine environmental protec?on
Marine environmental protec?on

Marine environmental protec?on

Marine environmental protec?on
Marine environmental protec?on
Marine environmental protec?on
Marine environmental protec?on
Marine scien?fic research
Marine scien?fic research
Marine scien?fic research
Marine scien?fic research

Marine scien?fic research

Marine scien?fic research
Marine scien?fic research
Marine scien?fic research
Marine scien?fic research
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on

Safety of naviga?on/communica?on

Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Safety of naviga?on/communica?on
Search and rescue opera?on
Search and rescue opera?on
Search and rescue opera?on
Search and rescue opera?on

Search and rescue opera?on

Search and rescue opera?on
Search and rescue opera?on
Search and rescue opera?on
Search and rescue opera?on
Comba?ng transna?onal crime
Comba?ng transna?onal crime
Comba?ng transna?onal crime
Comba?ng transna?onal crime

Comba?ng transna?onal crime

Comba?ng transna?onal crime
Comba?ng transna?onal crime
Comba?ng transna?onal crime
Comba?ng transna?onal crime
May 2009 deadline for submissions for extended con?nental shelves - China officially tables 9-dash line

May 2009 deadline for submissions for extended con?nental shelves - China officially tables 9-dash line map

ASEAN-China & South China Sea

ASEAN-China Joint Working Group to Implement the DOC, December 2004

ASEAN tables drae Guidelines

Aeer seven years of nego?a?ons China and ASEAN agreed to Guidelines to Implement the DOC, July 2011

DOC Guidelines July 2011

ASEAN will con?nue its current prac?ce of consul?ng among themselves before mee?ng with China [2005]

The Par?es to the DOC will con?nue to promote dialogue and consulta?ons in accordance with the spirit of the DOC.

DOC Guidelines 2011

Addi?onal point Progress of the implementa?on of the agreed ac?vi?es and projects under the DOC shall be reported annually to the ASEAN-China Ministerial Mee?ng.

ASEAN/China & South China Sea

January 2012 - ASEAN and Chinese Senior Officials began discussion on implemen?ng guidelines

Marine Scien?fic Research Expert Working Group Environmental Protec?on EWG Search and Rescue EWP Transna?onal Crime EWG Safety of Naviga?on and Communica?on at Sea

ASEAN/China & South China Sea

DOC led to revival of efforts to reach a Code of Conduct (COC) January 2012 Philippines circulates drae COC 20 th ASEAN Summit Apr 2012 – China an issue 45 th ASEAN Ministerial Mee?ng July 2012

Approved ASEAN’s Proposed Elements of a Regional COC Dispute over Joint Statement none issued

ASEAN/China & South China Sea

45 th AMM Retreat

Indonesia promises “non-paper” on COC

Shujle diplomacy

Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa

ASEAN’s 6 Point Principles on South China Sea Zero Drae Regional COC

Sidelines UN General Assembly Sept. 2012

ASEAN Adopts Unified Policy

ASEAN Adopts Unified Policy

Philippines: Arbitral Tribunal

January – Philippines lodges No?fica?on and Statement of Claim China refuses to par?cipate April – Arbitral Tribunal established July – first session held August – first procedural order March 30, 2014 deadline for Philippines to respond

Major Powers China’s Provoca?ve Military Exercises

Major Powers China’s Provoca?ve Military Exercises James Shoal 80 km off East Malaysia March 2013

James Shoal 80 km off East Malaysia March 2013

Ayungin /Second Thomas Shoal

Ayungin /Second Thomas Shoal

BRP Sierra Madre (LST)

BRP Sierra Madre (LST)

Scarborough Shoal: Rocks or Blocks?

Scarborough Shoal: Rocks or Blocks? •   Concrete blocks prelude to construc?on •   Viola?on of

Concrete blocks prelude to construc?on Viola?on of the DOC Diploma?c protest mooted

•   Concrete blocks prelude to construc?on •   Viola?on of the DOC •   Diploma?c

Formal China-ASEAN Consulta?ons

19 th ASEAN-China Senior Officials Consulta?ons (April 2, 2013) 6th ASEAN-China Senior Officials Mee?ng and 9 th Working Group Mee?ng on the Implementa?on of the DOC (Sept 25-26)

Work Plan for 2014 Hot line suggested Expert and Eminent Persons Group

Australian Interests:

Freedom of Naviga?on

Australian Interests: Freedom of Naviga?on

Resolving the South China Sea Dispute:

Legal Regimes and Realpoli(k

hjp://www.scribd.com/carlthayer
hjp://www.scribd.com/carlthayer