Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
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Bhutan
Critical
Development
Constraints
Country Diagnostics Studies
Bhutan
Critical
Development
Constraints
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1.EconomIcdeveIomenL.z.BhuLun..AsIunDeveIomenLBunk..AusLruIIunAgencyIornLernuLIonuIDeveIomenL..
JuunnLernuLIonuICooeruLIonAgency.
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DeveIomenLBunk(ADB)orILsBourdoIGovernorsorLhegovernmenLsLheyreresenL,LheAusLruIIunAgencyIornLernuLIonuI
DeveIomenL(AusAD),orLheJuunnLernuLIonuICooeruLIonAgency(JCA).
ADB,AusAD,undJCAdonoLguurunLeeLheuccurucyoILheduLuIncIudedInLhIsubIIcuLIonunducceLnoresonsIbIIILyIoruny
consequenceoILheIruse.
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documenL,ADB,AusAD,undJCAdonoLInLendLomukeunyjudgmenLsusLoLheIeguIoroLhersLuLusoIunyLerrILoryorureu.
ADB,AusAD,undJCAencourugerInLIngorcoyIngInIormuLIonexcIusIveIyIorersonuIundnoncommercIuIusewILhroer
ucknowIedgmenLoIADB,AusAD,undJCA.UsersureresLrIcLedIromreseIIIng,redIsLrIbuLIng,orcreuLIngderIvuLIveworksIor
commercIuIuroseswILhouLLheexress,wrILLenconsenLoIADB,AusAD,undJCA.
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hutcnzozo:AVisionjorPecce,ProsperitcndHcppinessembodIesLhedeveIomenLhIIosohy
oIHIsMujesLyKIngJIgmeSIngyeWungchuckundseLsouLdIrecLIonsLhuLwIIIenubIeBhuLunLo
execuLeLhIshIIosohywhIIeuLLhesumeLImereLuInIngILscommILmenLLoILsdIsLIncLIvemodeI
oI hurmonIous und buIunced deveIomenL. The vIsIon, whIch Is hIghIIghLed In BhuLuns zo1o
economIcdeveIomenLoIIcy,seeksLobrIngLogeLherdesIrubIIILyundIeusIbIIILy,sIgnIIyIngLhuL,
wILhwIsdom,undersLundIng,undIoresIghL,LhecounLrycunmeeLLhechuIIengesoIchungeundmodernIzuLIon
und bequeuLh Lo IuLure generuLIons u nuLIon LhuL every BhuLunese wIII be roud oI. AL Lhe core oI Lhe
governmenLsusIruLIonsIIesucceIeruLInggrowLhundoverLyreducLIon.ThesegouIsurereuIIzubIerovIded
LhuL Lhe consLruInLs Lo IncIusIve economIc deveIomenL ure IdenLIhed und uddressed Lhrough ImIemenLuLIon
oIurorIuLeoIIcIesInLhemedIumundIongLerm.
BhuLun, us Lhe reorL noLes, hus underLuken In Lhe IusL decude u number oI key InILIuLIves, whIch
resuILedIngrossdomesLIcroducLgrowLhruLesuverugIng8.q%durIngzoo1zo11.WehoeLoImroveLhe
economIcerIormunceevenIurLherwILhmoreInvesLmenLInLhehydroowersecLorLoIncreusehydroower
generuLIon cuucILy Lo ubouL seven LImes Lhe resenL IeveI by zozo. We huve IIkewIse InvesLed In key
economIc InIrusLrucLure und servIces und socIuI und humun deveIomenL, uIIowIng us Lo even suruss our
LurgeLoIreducIngLheoverLyheudcounLruLeLo1%byzo1,undLouchIevevIsIbIerogressInmeeLIngoLher
MIIIennIumDeveIomenLGouILurgeLs.
TheGovernmenLoIBhuLun,however,IsuwureoIremuInIngchuIIengesLoLurnInggrowLhmoreresIIIenL
und IncIusIve. DesILe Lhe hIgh ruLes oI economIc growLh, Lhe growLh remuIns nurrowIy bused; vuInerubIe
LosecLoruIshocksundcycIIcuIswIngs;undunubIeLocreuLeudequuLejobs,esecIuIIyIorLhegrowIngyouLh
ouIuLIon. or our vIsIon oI uchIevIng ro-oor und equILubIe deveIomenL, we need Lo LrunsIorm our
economy InLo u more dIversIhed und broud-bused one-whIch cun generuLe roducLIve und decenL emIoymenL
oorLunILIesIoruIIBhuLunese.ThedeveIomenLgusbeLweenLhedIsLrIcLsundhIghInequuIILyucrossIncome
grousuIsoremuInuconcern.
ThereorLuIsorovIdesInsIghLsLhuLcunheIenrIchdeveIomenLcooeruLIonbeLweenLhegovernmenL
und our deveIomenL urLners. n urLIcuIur, we hIghIy urecIuLe Lhe consuILuLIve rocess LhuL Lhe sLudy
udoLed Lo ensure LhuL vIews oI uII Lhe key sLukehoIders were Luken InLo uccounL In dIugnosIng Lhe crILIcuI
consLruInLs oI Lhe BhuLunese economy. The governmenL gruLeIuIIy ucknowIedges Lhe suorL oI Lhe AsIun
DeveIomenLBunk,AusLruIIunAgencyIornLernuLIonuIDeveIomenL,undJuunnLernuLIonuICooeruLIon
AgencyInLheLImeIyconducLoILhesLudy.
Lam Dorji
SecreLury
MInIsLryoIInunce
Foreword
ROYAL GOVERNMENT OF BHUTAN
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
TASHICHHO DZONG
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
iv
Preface
T
hehIIosohyoIgrossnuLIonuIhuInessIsunIqueLoBhuLun,undhusbeenLhecenLeroIILs
socIoeconomIc oIIcIes In sLrIvIng Lo buIunce Lhe sIrILuuI und muLerIuI weII-beIng oI ILs cILI-
zens. BhuLun beIIeves LhuL IL Is ossIbIe Lo embruce Lhe benehLs oI modernIzuLIon wILhouL beIng
overwheImed by neguLIve Inuences whIIe uL sume LIme muInLuInIng u dIsLIncL IdenLILy LhuL Is
recognIzedundresecLedbyLheresLoILheworId.
BhuLunhusuchIevedsLronggrowLh,uLununnuuIuverugeoI;.8%durIng1q81zo11,undILsercuILu
grossdomesLIcroducLhusmoreLhunquInLuIed,Irom$z;1Lo$1,qq6durIngLhesumeerIod.Hydroower
deveIomenL hus been Lhe muIn drIver oI Lhe growLh. The governmenLs conscIous eIIorLs Lo InvesL In
socIoeconomIc rogrums huve heIed reduce overLy In Lhe counLry. WILh ILs soIId erIormunce, BhuLun
husbeenoneoILheIusLesLgrowIngeconomIesInLheSouLhAsIuregIonundLheursuILIorenvIronmenLuI
susLuInubIIILyundIncIusIveeconomIcgrowLhueursLobewILhInreuch.
AIongwILhuIILheseosILIvedeveIomenLs,BhuLunhusrecognIzedLhuLILneedsLoconLInueILseIIorLs
LomukegrowLhresIIIenLLoexLernuIundInLernuIIucLors.ThIsIncIudessLeInguILseIIorLsLomukeILs
economIc growLh more IncIusIve und Lo ensure LhuL Lhe benehLs oI growLh ure more wIdeIy dIsLrIbuLed.
ThereorLhutcn:CriticclDetelopmentConstrcintsIsLImeIy,usLheGovernmenLoIBhuLunIsnow
In Lhe rocess oI reurIng Ior ILs eIevenLh Ive Yeur PIun. Bused on rIgorous unuIysIs, Lhe reorL IdenLIhes
LhemosLcrILIcuIconsLruInLsIucIngLheeconomyunddIscussesoIIcyoLIonsLoussIsLLhegovernmenLInILs
endeuvorLouchIevesLrong,buIunced,undresIIIenLgrowLhLhuLIsuIsoIncIusIve.orBhuLunLoucceIeruLe
economIc growLh und overLy reducLIon, IL hus Lo Lu InLo new or uddILIonuI drIvers oI growLh LhuL cun
exIoIL Lhe counLrys comuruLIve udvunLuge. The reorL uIso hIghIIghLs oLenLIuI new drIvers, whIch cun
heIcomIemenLBhuLunsconLInuIngeIIorLsIorIncIusIveundsusLuInubIesocIoeconomIcdeveIomenL.
We gruLeIuIIy ucknowIedge Lhe hnuncIuI suorL Irom Lhe GovernmenL oI AusLruIIu Lhrough Lhe
AusLruIIuAsIun DeveIomenL Bunk (ADB) SouLh AsIu DeveIomenL PurLnershI ucIIILy under Lhe
DeveIomenLPurLnershIProgrumIorSouLhAsIu,wILhuddILIonuIussIsLunceIromLheJuunnLernuLIonuI
CooeruLIon Agency (JCA). The sLudy wus joInLIy conducLed by Lhe GovernmenL oI BhuLun, ADB, und
JCA. AssIsLunL ChIeI EconomIsL Cyn-Young Purk, EconomIc AnuIysIs und OeruLIons SuorL DIvIsIon,
EconomIcs und Reseurch DeurLmenL oI ADB rovIded Lhe oversIghL und overuII dIrecLIon Ior Lhe sLudy.
TheworkwuscoordInuLedbyYokoNIImIundKee-YungNumoIADB.TomokINILLu,KuLsuoMuLsumoLo,
MoLoyukI TukuhushI, Ayumu OhshImu, Jun YumuzukI, Yusuke TukuhushI, und DuIsuke Lo coordInuLed
Lhe reseurch on behuII oI JCA. The reorL wus reured by Kee-Yung Num, Muhummud Ehsun Khun,
Yoko NIImI, GIIberLo M. IunLo, MurIu Rowenu M. Chum, und PuuIo RodeIIo M. HuIIII. The work benehLLed
IrombuckgrounduersreuredbyuLeumoIconsuILunLscomrIsIngTenzInChhoedu,ekeyDorjI,DII
Muyu RuI, Rohun SumurujIvu, TukuyukI Urude, und Bruce WInsLon. PeLer ChoynowskI, rIs CIuus, ULsuv
Kumur, und PuuI Vundenberg rovIded vuIuubIe commenLs In hnuIIzIng Lhe reorL. The reuruLIon Ior
Lhe reorL wus ussIsLed by RegInu Buromu, ArIene EvungeIIo, Amudor orondu, MurIu MeIIssu GregorIo,
Chapter 1. Introduction
v
uwrenceNeIsonGuevuru,RonuIdoco,yndreeMuIung,ShuronuyePIzu,IIIbeLhPooL,MurkRomuruog,
EmmunueISunAndres,undRhInuRIccIoez-ToIenLIno.ThereorLwusedILedbyJIIIGuIedeVIIIu;IuyouL
undLyeseLLIngwerebyMIkeCorLes.
The GovernmenL oI BhuLun rovIded suorL LhroughouL LhIs sLudy In numerous cuucILIes.
n urLIcuIur, we Lhunk SecreLury um DorjI, MInIsLry oI Inunce, und Governor Duw TenzIn, RoyuI
MoneLury AuLhorILy, Ior LheIr InsIghLs und guIdunce uL every sLe oI Lhe sLudy. We ure uIso gruLeIuI Ior
LhesuorLundIeedbuckreceIvedIromTenzInChezung,G.B.CheLLrI,PushuIuIChheLrI,UgyenChoden,
EdenDemu,PemuDechunDorjee,ChoILshoEudeIDorjI,NImDorjI,RInchenDorjI,GouIGIrI,Kunzung
humu, Kurmu hendu, Tshewung Norbu, TushI PeIden, JuI Nuruyun Prudhun, Kurmu RInzIn, Sonum
TushI, Sonum TenzIn, Kencho ThInIey, Yungchen TshogyeI, TundIn Wungchuk, Dechen WungdI, KInIey
WungdI,undoLherswhosenumesmuyhuvebeenInudverLenLIyomILLedhere;undIromnumerousugencIes,
IncIudIngLheMInIsLryoIInunce,RoyuIMoneLuryAuLhorILyoIBhuLun,NuLIonuISLuLIsLIcsBureuu,Gross
NuLIonuIHuInessCommIssIon,MInIsLryoIEconomIcAIIuIrs,MInIsLryoIubourundHumunResources,
und MInIsLry oI AgrIcuILure und oresLs. InuIIy, our Lhunks uIso go Lo Lhe reresenLuLIves oI Lhe LhInk
Lunks, deveIomenL urLner reresenLuLIves, Lhe dIsLrIcLs, cIvII socIeLy, und rIvuLe secLor reresenLuLIve
orgunIzuLIons LhuL urLIcIuLed In Lhe workshos, Ior LheIr suorL und InLeresL In Lhe sLudy. We uL ADB
IookIorwurdLoconLInuedundroducLIvedIuIoguewILhLheGovernmenLoIBhuLunInursuIngunugendu
oIIncIusIvegrowLhundsusLuIneddeveIomenLInBhuLun.
Changyong Rhee
ChIeIEconomIsL
EconomIcsundReseurchDeurLmenL
AsIunDeveIomenLBunk
Juan Miranda
DIrecLorGeneruI
SouLhAsIuDeurLmenL
AsIunDeveIomenLBunk
Preface
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
vi
Contents
Foreword iii
Preface iv
Abbreviations and Acronyms vii
Highlights ix
1 Development Performance 1
1.1. The Bhutanese Economy 2
1.2. Trends in Poverty and Inequality 12
1.3. Conclusion 15
Appendix A. Methodology 16
2 Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth 18
2.1. Cost of Finance 20
2.2. Social Returns to Investments 29
2.3. Appropriability of Returns to Investments 41
2.4. Conclusion 62
3 Critical Constraints to Reducing Poverty and Inequality 65
3.1. Poverty and Inequality Diagnostics Framework 65
3.2. Productive Employment Opportunities 66
3.3. Human Capabilities 70
3.4. Uneven Playing Field 85
3.5. Social Safety Nets 91
3.6. Conclusion 91
Appendix B. Analyzing the Probability of Not Being Poor 93
4 Drivers of Inclusive Growth for Bhutan 95
4.1. Existing Drivers of Growth in Bhutan 95
4.2. Emerging Growth Drivers for Bhutan 104
4.3 Conclusion 110
5 Policy Recommendations 112
5.1. Critical Constraints to Inclusive Growth 112
5.2. Policy Recommendations on Critical Constraints to Growth 113
5.3. Policy Recommendations to Support Drivers of New Growth 124
5.4. The Way Forward 129
References 130
Chapter 1. Introduction
vii
Abbreviations and Acronyms
ADB Asian Development Bank
APIC Agency for Promotion of Indigenous Crafts
BBEIS Bangladesh Bureau of Educational Information and Statistics
BCSEA Bhutan Council of Secondary Education Assessment
BDFC Bhutan Development Finance Corporation
BHU basic health unit
BPO business process outsourcing
CERD Centre for Educational Research and Development
DOA Department of Agriculture
DTMP district transport master plan
ECB external commercial borrowings
ESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacic
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FDI foreign direct investment
FY scal year
FYP ve year plan
GDP gross domestic product
GGLS group guarantee lending scheme
GNHC Gross National Happiness Commission
ICT information and communications technology
IDI ICT Development Index
IFC International Finance Corporation
IMF International Monetary Fund
IT information technology
ITES information technology-enabled services
JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency
KPO knowledge process outsourcing
MOAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forests
MOE Ministry of Education
MLHR Ministry of Labour and Human Resources
MSMEs micro, small, and medium enterprises
MWHS Ministry of Works and Human Settlements
NSB National Statistics Bureau
Nu ngultrum
O&M operation and maintenance
PPP publicprivate partnership
PRC Peoples Republic of China
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
viii
PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers
REC Royal Education Council
RICB Royal Insurance Corporation of Bhutan
RMA Royal Monetary Authority
RNR Renewable Natural Resources
RSMP Road Sector Master Plan
SIL small individual loans
SITC Standard International Trade Classication
TCB Tourism Council of Bhutan
TTI technical training institute
TVET technical and vocational education and training
WDI World Development Indicators
WHO World Health Organization
Weights and Measures
GWh gigawatt-hour
ha hectare
kg kilogram
km kilometer
km
2
square kilometer
kV kilovolt
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt-hour
m meter
mm millimeter
MVA megavolt-ampere
MW megawatt
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Highlights
ix
Highlights
B
huLun, whIch Is sILuuLed In Lhe eusLern HImuIuyus, Is u smuII, mounLuInous, und IundIocked
counLrybeLweenLhePeoIesReubIIcoIChInuundndIu.DesILechuIIengInggeogruhyund
IImILedconnecLIvILyLoLhegIobuImurkeLs,BhuLunmunugedLoLrunsIormILseIIIrombeIngu
cIosed,usLoruI,undsubsIsLenceeconomyInLouruIdIygrowIngIowmIddIe-IncomecounLry
bymunugIngILsnuLuruIresourceendowmenLundunIockIngILshydrooweroLenLIuI.BhuLuns
deveIomenL erIormunce hus been guIded by ILs hIIosohy oI gross nuLIonuI huInessoI sLrIvIng
Lo buIunce sIrILuuI und muLerIuI udvuncemenL Lowurd LoLuI weII-beIng Lhrough Iour IIIurs: susLuInubIe
und equILubIe economIc growLh und deveIomenL, reservuLIon und susLuInubIe use oI Lhe envIronmenL,
reservuLIonundromoLIonoIcuILuruIherILuge,undgoodgovernunce.Thus,BhuLunsoIIcymukershuve
beenuImIngLouchIevehurmonyundbuIunceInLheeconomIcdeveIomenLrocess.
BhuLunexerIencedsLrongeconomIcgrowLhdurIngzoo1zo11,wILhILseconomygrowInguLununnuuI
uveruge oI 8.q%. ThIs growLh hus uIIowed Lhe governmenL Lo suorL overLy reducLIon InILIuLIves und
udvunce socIuI deveIomenL. nvesLmenLs In vurIous socIuI rogrums enubIed Lhe governmenL Lo uchIeve
severuIMIIIennIumDeveIomenLGouILurgeLseurIIerLhunscheduIed.ThIs,however,doesnoLmeunLhuL
overLy hus been erudIcuLed. nequuIILy remuIns u sIgnIhcunL Issue ucross urbun und ruruI ureus In regIons
unddIsLrIcLs,undhusevendeLerIoruLeducrossIncomegrous.
Hydroower deveIomenL, whIch sLurLed In Lhe mId-1q8os, und Lhe subsequenL exorL oI surIus
eIecLrIcILyLondIu,huveIurgeIysusLuInedLhegrowLh.BhuLunseconomIcouLIookremuInsIuvorubIeInLhe
medIumLerm,buLheuvydeendenceoncuILuI-InLensIvehydroowerdeveIomenLhusLIedLhecounLrys
sourceoIgrowLhLousecLorLhuLrovIdesonIyIImILedemIoymenLoorLunILIes.ReIIunceoneIecLrIcILy
exorLsLondIuusLhemujorsourceoIIoreIgnexchungehusuIsoIeILLheeconomyvuInerubIeLoswIngsIn
ndIusbusInesscycIes.SecLorsnoLbusedonnuLuruIresourcesremuInIurgeIyunderdeveIoedexceL,Lo
someexLenL,LourIsmundoLherservIcesucLIvILIessuchusLrunsorL,sLoruge,undcommunIcuLIonsusweII
us hnunce, Insurunce, reuI esLuLe, und busIness servIces. The rIvuLe secLor remuIns smuII und Iuces muny
hurdIesLoconLrIbuLIngLoIuLureeconomIcgrowLh.
or BhuLun Lo move beyond Lhe Iow mIddIe-Income urudIgm, whIch hus been eurned Irom nuLuruI
resourceendowmenLs,LouchIevehIgherundmoresLubIegrowLhLhuLIsIncIusIve,LhecounLryseconomy
Highlights
x
needs Lo be LrunsIormed. The economy needs Lo become broud-bused wILh more dIverse growLh drIvers
so LhuL IL cun generuLe more roducLIve und decenL emIoymenL oorLunILIes. BhuLun Iuces muILIIe
consLruInLs Lo uchIevIng Lhese objecLIves. Key consLruInLs IncIude (1) InudequuLe und oor quuIILy
InIrusLrucLure, urLIcuIurIy In LrunsorL und connecLIvILy, und esecIuIIy In Lhe ruruI ureus; (z) nurrow hscuI
suce, urLIcuIurIy In Lhe medIum Lo Iong Lerm; () Iuck oI uccess Lo hnunce by mIcro, smuII, und medIum
enLerrIses (MSMEs); (q) resence oI murkeL IuIIures LhuL IImIL roducL dIversIhcuLIon und comeLILIon;
und () IImILed und unequuI uccess Lo quuIILy educuLIon (urLIcuIurIy secondury, LerLIury, und vocuLIonuI
educuLIon),undIubormurkeLmIsmuLches.
The sLudy IdenLIhes new drIvers oI growLh LhuL cun heI BhuLun exIoIL ILs comuruLIve udvunLuges und
dIversIIy ILs economy whIIe muInLuInIng hIgh ruLes oI growLh. RemovIng Lhe consLruInLs IdenLIhed ubove
Is uIso essenLIuI Ior deveIoIng new drIvers oI growLh. WhIIe Lhe currenL growLh engInes (hydroower,
LourIsm, und ugrIcuILure) wIII IIkeIy susLuIn BhuLuns economIc growLh In Lhe shorL Lo medIum Lerm,
deveIoIngnewgrowLhdrIverscouIdoIIeroorLunILIesLocomIemenLundsuorLBhuLunsursuILoI
u more buIunced, IncIusIve, und susLuInubIe growLh und socIoeconomIc deveIomenL. The ossIbIe new
drIversoIgrowLhIncIudeInIormuLIonundcommunIcuLIonsLechnoIogy(CT)undcIeunmunuIucLurIngLhuL
wIII enguge MSMEs. To hnd u buIunce beLween mInImum envIronmenLuI ImucL, commercIuI vIubIIILy, und
socIuI ImucL, Lhe IoIIowIng munuIucLurIng IndusLrIes huve been IdenLIhed us oI hIgh rIorILy Ior deveIoIng
ucIeunmunuIucLurIngsecLor:(1)hundIcruILs,(z)IoodrocessIng,()munuIucLureoIhydroower-reIuLed
urLsundmuInLenunce,und(q)munuIucLureoICT-reIuLedurLs.ThegovernmenLrecognIzesLheneedLo
rovIdeunenvIronmenLconducIveLoencourugIngmorerIvuLesecLorInvesLmenL,usunessenLIuIsource
oI growLh In Lhe IuLure. The TenLh Ive Yeur PIun uIhrms LhIs core sLruLegy oI vILuIIzIng IndusLry Ior overLy
reducLIon,reIyIngheuvIIyonhowLherIvuLesecLorerIormsunddeIIvers,wILhInLheconLexLoIemowerIng
MSMEsIorIndusLrIuIexunsIonundemIoymenLgeneruLIon.
Some oIIcy oLIons LhuL muy heI guIde Lhe course oI BhuLuns IuLure growLh ure descrIbed In Lhe
IoIIowIngLexL.EncourugIngIy,munyoILhemureuIreudyurLoILhegovernmenLsdeveIomenLugendu.
Providing Adequate and Good Quality Access Infrastructure
BhuLun`s dIIhcuIL LerruIn oses chuIIenges Lo rovIdIng udequuLe InIrusLrucLure und key ubIIc servIces
LhroughouLLhecounLry.TheIImILeduvuIIubIIILyoIInIrusLrucLure,esecIuIIyInLrunsorLundconnecLIvILy,
husbeenumujorhurdIeLoIncIusIvegrowLh,humerIngLheuccessLoeconomIcoorLunILIes.
BhuLunneedsLodeveIo,LhroughuconsuILuLIverocess,unInsLILuLIonuIIrumeworkLhuLeIIecLIveIy
consoIIduLes Lhe roIes oI und cuucILy Ior sLruLegIc IunnIng, coordInuLIon, und monILorIng wILhouL
cenLruIIzIngLheImIemenLuLIonundmuInLenunceresonsIbIIILIesIorInIrusLrucLureIucIIILIesundservIces.
TheIrumeworkIsurLIcuIurIyneededInLheLrunsorLsecLorwhereucomrehensIveussessmenLoIcuucILy
buIIdIng Is requIred uL uII IeveIs oI governmenL, wILh u urLIcuIur Iocus on Lhe cuucILy Lo Iun, desIgn,
consLrucL,undmuInLuInroudundreIuLedInIrusLrucLure.TheRoudSecLorMusLerPIunzoo;zoz;urgenLIy
needs Lo be exunded Lo cover InvesLmenLs In new und exIsLIng rouds uL Lhe nuLIonuI und dIsLrIcL IeveIs,
cuucILyundInsLILuLIonbuIIdIng,oeruLIonundmuInLenunce,undreguIuLoryreIuLedmuLLers.
To enhunce connecLIvILy, BhuLun cun benehL Irom IusL-LruckIng Lhe consLrucLIon undJor ImrovemenL
oILhehIghrIorILyroudrojecLs,suchusLheThImhuPhuenLshoIIngHIghwuy,LheThImhuTrushIgung
HIghwuy,souLhernsegmenLsoILheEusLWesLHIghwuy,undLheNorLhSouLhHIghwuy.RoudmuInLenunce
cun be susLuIned by suorLIng Lhe communILIes In consLrucLIng und muInLuInIng Iurm rouds Lhrough
(1)desIgnIngroudsundreIuLedInIrusLrucLureLhuLureLechnIcuIIysoundundcIImuLeresIIIenL,(z)buIIdIng
cuucILyIorconsLrucLIonundmuInLenunce,und()suorLIngInvesLmenLonucosL-shurIngbusIs.
Highlights
xi
ExundIngundmodernIzInguIrLrunsorLIucIIILIeswouIdheIImroveussengerservIcesundsuIeLy
sLundurds.nLernuLIonuIIInkswILhoLherAsIunhubsundregIonuIcenLerscunbeexIoredLhroughcode-
shure ugreemenLs wILh oLher uIrIInes und Lhrough bIIuLeruI uIr LrunsorL ugreemenLs wILh oLher regIonuI
desLInuLIonsLoserveLheIncreusIngLourIsLurrIvuIs,busInessLruveIers,undcurgoservIcesbeLweenPuround
regIonuIdesLInuLIons.
Creating a Comfortable Fiscal Space
BhuLun`s hscuI oIIcy hus been generuIIy rudenL, buL more hscuI suce Is needed Lo meeL Lhe growIng
demund Ior InIrusLrucLure und socIuI sendIng. TogeLher wILh Increused debL servIcIng, Lhese sendIng
rogrums huve become mujor budgeL ILems Ior ImIemenLIng Lhe currenL hve yeur Iun.
OnLheexendILuresIde,LhegovernmenLneedsLocomrehensIveIyrevIewuIIexendILures,IncIudIng
cuILuI und recurrenL exendILures us weII us subsIdIes, Lo uscerLuIn how Lo Imrove ILs uIIocuLIve und
oeruLIonuI eIhcIencIes. mIemenLIng u medIum-Lerm exendILure Irumework Lo IncIude u -yeur roIIIng
budgeLcunreuIIsLIcuIIyIInkresourceconsLruInLsLoexendILurerequIremenLsundheIImroveresource
uIIocuLIon und redIcLubIIILy oI sendIng. or Lrunsurency und uccounLubIIILy, BhuLun muy wIsh Lo
consIder ImIemenLIng un e-rocuremenL sysLem und u comuLerIzed uccounLIng sysLem LhuL exLends
LoLhedIsLrIcLsundIowerIeveIsoIgovernmenL.
On Lhe revenue sIde, ImIemenLIng Lhe Revenue AdmInIsLruLIon MunugemenL nIormuLIon SysLem
wouId IucIIILuLe e-hIIng oI Lux reLurns und onIIne uymenL oI Luxes, und sLrengLhen revenue mobIIIzuLIon.
The governmenL needs Lo revIew Lhe Lux sLrucLure und consIder oLher Lux meusures, such us u unIIorm
vuIue-uddedLux,LoenhuncedomesLIcrevenuemobIIIzuLIon.mIemenLIngsomeIormoIcosLrecoveryIor
somegovernmenL-rovIdedservIcescunuIsoheIIundgovernmenLoeruLIons.
Enhancing Access to Finance, Particularly by MSMEs
Access Lo und cosL oI hnunce conLInues Lo be u crILIcuI consLruInL Lo rIvuLe InvesLmenL, esecIuIIy Ior
MSMEs.MSMEsuccessLocredILIsIImILedbyInsLILuLIonuIundInIrusLrucLureshorLIuIIs.
SLrengLhenIngLhecredILInIormuLIonsysLemLoIncIudeexundedcoverugeoILheCredILnIormuLIon
Bureuu wIII uddress Lhe InIormuLIon usymmeLry robIems LhuL humer MSMEs` uccess Lo hnunce.
nLroducIng credIL rIsk guurunLee IucIIILIes Ior MSMEs cun reduce Lhe cosL oI hnuncIng Ior boLh MSMEs und
hnuncIuI InsLILuLIons und encouruge Lhem Lo do more busIness. n uruIIeI, vurIous Iorms oI mIcrohnunce
IendIng cun be exIored, IncIudIng ussocIuLIons, communILy und vIIIuge bunkIng, und cooeruLIves, Lo
brouden Lhe reuch oI mIcrocredIL IucIIILIes. The use oI CT und InnovuLIve urouches such us mobIIe
bunkIng LechnoIogy cun heI exLend Lhe reuch oI Lhe bunkIng secLor. DeveIomenL und use oI eIecLronIc
uymenLsysLemInIrusLrucLurecunuIsoheIImroveLhedomesLIcuymenLsysLemundromoLerIvuLe
secLorgrowLh.
BeLLermunugemenLoIInLernuLIonuIreservesIsnecessuryLoIucIIILuLeInLernuLIonuILrudeLrunsucLIons.
A comIorLubIe IeveI oI reserves In Lhe currency used In such LrunsucLIons shouId be muInLuIned. BhuLun
couIdreusonubIyhuveubouLo%%oIILsreservesInLhendIunruee,gIvenLheumounLoILrunsucLIons
Lhe counLry hus wILh ndIu. OLher reIorms LhuL huve been InILIuLed In Lhe ureus oI hnuncIuI dereguIuLIon und
IIberuIIzuLIon, such us enLry oI IoreIgn bunks, shouId be conLInued Lo ucceIeruLe hnuncIuI deveIomenL und
Imrove Lhe eIhcIency oI IendIng InsLILuLIons.
Highlights
xii
Addressing Market Failures to Encourage Product
Diversication and Competition
BhuLun`s exorL buskeL cun be churucLerIzed us reIuLIveIy sohIsLIcuLed buL InsuIhcIenLIy dIversIhed,
concenLruLIng In onIy u Iew core roducLs, und Lhus rovIdIng IILLIe oorLunILy Lo exund roducLIve
cuubIIILIes Lo new roducL cuLegorIes. MurkeL IuIIures muy dIscouruge InvesLmenL In new economIc
ucLIvILIesbecuuseenLerIngInLonewIInesoIbusInesswIIIrequIreunewseLoIcuubIIILIes,whIchurecosLIy
LoucquIre.
SecIhc oIIcy ucLIons ure needed Lo uddress Lhe roducL- or IndusLry-secIhc consLruInLs. The oIIcy
ucLIons und u new IndusLrIuI oIIcy Irumework need Lo be IormuIuLed Lhrough reguIur ubIIcrIvuLe
oIIcy dIuIogue. Then Lhe Irumework needs Lo be mude oeruLIonuI und cuucILy Lo ImIemenL IL buIIL In
LhereIevunLmInIsLrIesundIunnIngbodIes.LIsImorLunLLobeubIeLoIdenLIIysecLorsLhuLresenLLhe
greuLesL oorLunILy und vuIue Ior dIversIhcuLIon, IdenLIIy roducLs under Lhese secLors us good sLruLegIc
beLs, und uLLrucL IoreIgn dIrecL InvesLmenL Lo guIn u IooLhoId und deveIo Lhe cuubIIILIes necessury Ior
LheseroducLs.ThegovernmenLcouIdromoLeLechnoIogyLrunsIerusucenLerIeceoIIoreIgnInvesLmenL
oIIcy.AnyconcessIonssuchusLuxbreuks,however,shouIdcomewILhcIeurerIormunceIndIcuLorsund
sunseLcIuuses.
Improving Access to Quality Education and
Addressing Labor Market Mismatch
The governmenL hus been LukIng severuI meusures Lo Imrove Lhe quuIILy oI educuLIon Lhrough
consLrucLIng new schooIs, exundIng und ugrudIng exIsLIng ones, decenLruIIzIng educuLIon monILorIng
und suorL servIces, und ugrudIng Lhe quuIIhcuLIons und comeLency oI Leuchers. BhuLun hus successIuIIy
uchIeved unIversuI educuLIon, buL uccess Lo educuLIon remuIns IImILed und unequuI urLIcuIurIy uL Lhe
secondury und LerLIury IeveIs, und Lhe quuIILy oI educuLIon remuIns un Issue. The skIIIs IeveI oI BhuLuns
IuborIorceIsIow,urLIcuIurIyumongoorundruruIworkers.SkIIIsshorLugesundIubormurkeLmIsmuLch
consLruIneconomIcgrowLhunddeveIomenLoILherIvuLesecLor.
mrovIng Lhe quuIILy oI educuLIon shouId sLurL wILh un evuIuuLIon oI Lhe currIcuIum und reIuLed
reIormsuIreudyImIemenLed,LodeLermIneLhegusundureusLhuLneedLobesLrengLhenedoruddressed.
TeucherLruInIngunddeveIomenLrogrumsusweIIusrovIsIonoIurorIuLeIncenLIvescunheIImrove
LhecomeLencyoILeuchers,whIchIuysuIurgeurLInImrovIngLhequuIILyoIeducuLIon.ReducIngLhe
schooIs burden oI udmInIsLruLIve Lusks cun uIso heI Leuchers und udmInIsLruLors Iocus on Lhe core Lusk
oILeuchIng.
TechnIcuIundvocuLIonuIeducuLIonundLruInIngIoroorhousehoIdsundwomencunbeexundedby
IncreusIngLheunnuuIenroIImenLInLheLechnIcuILruInIngInsLILuLes.ThIsmuybeuccomIIshedbyrovIdIng
schoIurshIs und oLher hnuncIuI IncenLIves. Through Imroved vuIues educuLIon, beLLer remuneruLIon,
undenhuncedservIcecondILIons,LechnIcuIoccuuLIonsshouIdberomoLedusuvuIuedcureerchoIce.n
sLrengLhenIng und modernIzIng Lhe counLrys LerLIury IeveI und LechnIcuI und vocuLIonuI educuLIon und
LruInIngInsLILuLIons,LhegovernmenLcunuseusbenchmurksreuLubIeIeurnIngInsLILuLIonsInLheregIon
undLheworId,undesLubIIshuoIyLechnIcunIversILyLobroudenLherungeoIcoursesuvuIIubIe.
Highlights
xiii
AsysLemLoIInkjobseekerswILhuvuIIubIeemIoymenLoorLunILIesundIuLureskIIIsrequIremenLs
shouIduIsobeuLInIuceLouddressLheskIIIsmIsmuLch.
Promoting New Drivers of Growth
DeveIoIngnewgrowLhdrIverswouIdenhuncechuncesoIuchIevIngmorebuIunced,susLuInubIe,und
IncIusIvegrowLh.RemovIngconsLruInLsLorIvuLeInvesLmenLscouIdbecrILIcuILoLhesuccessIuIuseoInew
growLhdrIvers.
ThroughurorIuLeCTeducuLIonrogrums,LhegovernmenLcouIdromoLeCTusunewdrIveroI
growLh.SucheducuLIonrogrumscouIdIncIudedeveIomenLoIsoILwureIorknowIedgerocessouLsourcIng
ucLIvILIes. The governmenL couId encouruge hrms Lo conLrIbuLe knowIedge und LeuchIng resources und
rovIde InLernshI oorLunILIes Ior sLudenLs. n urLnershI wILh busIness rocess ouLsourcIng (BPO)
hrms, Lhe governmenL couId ImIemenL un urLIcuIuLed LruInIng und educuLIon rogrum LhuL Is LuIIored Lo
Lhe BPO hrms` needs. To deveIo Lhe BPO IndusLry, suorL InIrusLrucLure Is needed und governmenL couId
consIder IIcensIng one or more InLernuLIonuI guLewuy oeruLors Ior busIness servIces, such us Ior Ieused-
IIne servIces, InLernuLIonuI cuII LermInuLIon, und ouLgoIng InLernuLIonuI LruIhc. The governmenL couId uIso
esLubIIshunInIormuLIoncenLerLoserveusununchorIordeveIoInge-governmenLservIces.
ndeveIoIngucIeunmunuIucLurIngsecLor,LheroIesoIundcoordInuLIonumongInsLILuLIonscreuLedLo
heIdeveIoLheMSMEsecLorshouIdberevIewed.NewmurkeLsshouIdbeexIoredLhroughurLIcIuLIon
In InLernuLIonuI Lrude IuIrs und urLnershIs wILh overseus reLuII chuIns und deurLmenL sLores. The
governmenLcouIdengugeInInLernuLIonuIreseurchunddeveIomenLconsorLIuundurLnershIsLoeIIecL
LrunsIeroIknowIedgeundLechnoIogyLowurddeveIoIngLheIocuImunuIucLurIngIndusLry.TheenucLmenL
oIunenLerrIseregIsLruLIonbIIIcunbeursued,sLreumIInIngLheregIsLruLIonundIIcensIngroceduresIor
enLerrIses,undIssuIngerIodIcmonILorIngreorLsonMSMEs.
Development Performance
1
Chapter 1
Development Performance
B
huLun,IocuLedInLheeusLernHImuIuyus,
Is u smuII IundIocked counLry beLween
Lhe PeoIes ReubIIc oI ChInu (PRC)
und ndIu. VIrLuuIIy Lhe enLIre counLry
Is mounLuInous. The souLhern border
wILh ndIu Is uL un eIevuLIon oI ubouL oo meLers,
undLhenorLhernborderwILhLhePRCreuchesover
;,oomeLers.
DesILe chuIIengIng geogruhy und IImILed
connecLIon Lo Lhe gIobuI murkeLs, Lhe counLry
munuged Lo IgnILe und susLuIn sLrong economIc
growLhbyunIockIngILshydrooweroLenLIuI.Thus,
hydroower hus been u mujor engIne oI growLh In
BhuLun.ThecounLryhusunesLImuLedhydroower
oLenLIuI oI o,ooo meguwuLLs (MW), oI whIch
z,;6o MW hus been IdenLIhed us LechnIcuIIy
IeusIbIe Ior deveIomenL (GNHC zooq). However,
Lhe counLry hus deveIoed 1,q88 MW Lhus Iur,
hurnessIngonIyubouL6%oIILsoLenLIuI.
BhuLun uchIeved sLrong growLh, wILh ILs reuI
gross domesLIc roducL (GDP) growLh uverugIng
ubouL ;.8% durIng 1q81zo11 (Igure 1.1).
1
DurIng
Lhe sume erIod, Lhe counLrys er cuILu GDP
more Lhun quInLuIed, Irom Nu1,o;8 In 1q81 Lo
Nu6q,;;Inzo11.
A serIes oI Lhe governmenL`s hve-yeur Iuns
(YPs) huve seL ouL Lhe rIorILy rogrums Lo sLeer
LheBhuLuneseeconomyLouchIeveLhIsremurkubIe
growLh(Box1.1).BhuLunIscurrenLIyImIemenLIng
1
The spikes in real GDP growth rates in 19871988, 2007, and 2010
can be attributed to the construction and start of commercial
operations of hydroelectric power plants.
ILs TenLh YP (zoo8zo1), whIch hus overLy
reducLIon us ILs overurchIng gouI. The TenLh YP
uIms Lo uchIeve susLuInubIe overLy reducLIon
Lhrough sLrengLhenIng Lhe InvesLmenL cIImuLe
und hIgh economIc growLh. The overuII overLy
reducLIon sLruLegy wIII IncIude romoLIng broud-
bused growLh Ior emIoymenL oorLunILIes und
boosLIngcrILIcuIsecLorssuchusugrIcuILure,LourIsm,
undruruIenLerrIses.ocusedmeusuresonrIvuLe
secLor deveIomenL ure InLended Lo chunneI more
resources und InvesLmenLs Ior susLuInubIe und
buIunced growLh, emIoymenL generuLIon, und un
IncreusedIIvIngsLundurdIorruruIhousehoIds.
On Lhe buck oI sLrong growLh erIormunce,
BhuLun hus mude sIgnIhcunL rogress In overLy
reducLIonundhumundeveIomenLsInceLhe1qqos
us Lhe governmenL InvesLed In key economIc und
socIuI InIrusLrucLure und servIces. The counLrys
mucroeconomIc munugemenL hus been rudenL
und, wILh sLrong revenues Irom hydroeIecLrIcILy,
Lhe governmenLs InvesLmenLs In socIuI und
humun deveIomenL uIIowed Ior Lhe counLrys
vIsIbIe rogress Lowurd uchIevIng MIIIennIum
DeveIomenL GouIs. BhuLun hus uIso exerIenced
some roIound chunges In ILs oIILIcuI sysLems
sInce Lhe hrsL democruLIc eIecLIons heId In zoo;.
nonedecude,LhecounLrymovedIromunubsoIuLe
monurchy Lo u consLILuLIonuI monurchy und
urIIumenLury democrucy wILh Lhe udoLIon oI
ILs ConsLILuLIon In zoo8.
z
DurIng Lhe democruLIc
2
The move toward democracy began in 1998 when the countrys
fourth monarch, King Jigme Singye Wangchuck, by a royal decree,
devolved his executive powers to a Council of Ministers elected by
the representatives of the National Assembly.
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
2
LrunsILIon, Lhe governmenL subscrIbed Lo Lhe
rIncIIes oI gross nuLIonuI huIness whIch
underInsBhuLunsdeveIomenLobjecLIves.
TubIe
1.1oIIersubrIeIsummuryoIBhuLunssocIoeconomIc
deveIomenLdurIngLheIusLzdecudes.
3
The Government of Bhutan subscribes to the concept of gross
national happiness and its four pillars: (1) promotion of sustainable
and equitable socioeconomic development, (2) environmental
conservation, (3) preservation and promotion of culture, and
(4) establishment of good governance. These pillars are further
articulated in the nine domains by which progress in Bhutan is now
assessed: living standards, health, education, culture, ecological
integrity, community vitality, time use, good governance, and
psychological well-being.
1.1. The Bhutanese Economy
BhuLunhusregIsLeredImressIvegrowLhIorLhe
IusL decudes, wILh unnuuI growLh ruLes uverugIng
1o.z%InLhe1q8os,.1%InLhe1qqos,und8.%In
Lhezooos.BhuLunsercuILureuIGDPgrowLhruLe,
whIch uveruged .q% In Lhe sume decudes, uIso
comures IuvorubIy wILh LhuL oI oLher SouLh AsIun
economIes (Igure 1.z). rom u hIgh oI ;.1% In Lhe
1q8os, BhuLuns ruLe dIed Lo q.;% In Lhe 1qqos.
AILerzooo,LhecounLryrecoveredundregIsLeredu
.q% uveruge er cuILu reuI growLh, mukIng IL Lhe
IusLesLgrowIngeconomyInLheregIon.
Table 1.1. Selected Socioeconomic Indicators of Bhutan
1990 2000 2005 2010 2011
Real GDP (in 2000 Nu million) 12,150.68 19,735.78 28,879.35 45,397.51 49,260.51
GDP Growth Rate (%) 10.88 6.93 7.12 11.68 8.51
Population 484,732 580,330 634,982 696,000 708,000
Real GDP per Capita (in 2000 Nu) 25,066.78 34,007.86 45,480.59 65,226.31 69,576.99
GDP per Capita Growth Rate (%) 8.90 5.03 5.21 9.59 6.67
Poverty Incidence (%) 31.7 (2003) 23.2 (2007) 11.5 (2012)
Gini Coecient 0.468 (2003) 0.350 (2007) 0.426 (2012)
GDP = gross domestic product, Nu = Ngultrum.
Note: Poverty incidence in this table is based on Bhutans national poverty line. In the absence of a 2012 national poverty line as of this study, the 2007 poverty
line was used to estimate the 2012 poverty incidence. Accordingly, 2012 prices were adjusted to 2007 prices for consistency. The Gini coecient is the most
commonly used measure of inequality. It varies between 0 (reecting complete equality) and 1 (indicating complete inequality).
Source: Based on the Bhutan Living Standard Surveys (NSB 2007a, ADB and NSB 2013), and NSB data (provided by the Ministry of Finance in May 2013).
GDP = gross domestic product, Nu = Ngultrum.
Source: National Statistics Bureau (provided by the Ministry of Finance in May 2013).
Figure 1.1. Bhutans Per Capita Real GDP (2000 Nu, left axis) and Real GDP Growth Rate (%, right axis),
19812011
0
20,000
50,000
10,000
40,000
30,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
5
20
5
0
15
10
25
30
35
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
Per capita real GDP Real GDP growth rate
Development Performance
3
Box 1.1. Bhutans Five-Year Plans
S
teering Bhutan into remarkable growth through the years has been its series of ve-year plans (FYPs). These FYPs, the
rst of which was implemented in 1961, give a glimpse into the high priority programs of the Government of Bhutan.
The rst three FYPs (spanning 19611976) provided the foundation for economic development and growth by investing
in economic and social infrastructure. Major eorts were focused on expanding the road network, establishing education
and health infrastructure, and increasing agricultural production. The Fourth FYP (19761981) furthered government
attention to education; forestry; and public works, which included roads and water supply. The
Fifth FYP (19811987)
identied hydropower development as a major source of revenue and driver of growth. With strengthening internal
revenue generation and achieving self-reliance objectives, the government prioritized revenue generating activities
in industries, forests, tourism, and power. The Sixth FYP (19871992) stressed the governments special concern for the
rural populace through high priority programs such as rural housing, resettlement, enhancement of rural incomes, and
a widespread distribution of public services and utilities. While agriculture had the highest share in the plan budget,
power and trade and industry received higher shares than they had in the Fifth FYP. The Sixth FYP retained a high priority
on self-reliance objectives, and renewed the commitment to human resource development and domestic resource
mobilization.
The Seventh FYP (19921996) emphasized further the goal of self-suciency. The government undertook initiatives that
were based on the principles of sustainability, eciency and development of the private sector, peoples participation and
decentralization, human resource development, and regionally balanced development. Social services, communications,
and agriculture took more than 50% of the plan budget. During this period, the government privatized many resource
mobilization and service industries and corporatized agencies involved in airlines, post, nancial institutions, and
municipalities; established technical assistance programs for the private sector; simplied the rules and regulations for
imports and exports; and liberalized the licensing system to encourage and promote free enterprise.
The Eighth FYP (19972002) was again anchored on the goal of self-reliance that largely depended on continued progress
being made in human resource development and the application of technology suited to Bhutans development needs.
In this plan, gross national happiness was rst mentioned in the context of human development. The Eighth FYP
basically followed through on the framework of the Seventh FYP, with national security and preservation and promotion
of cultural and traditional values as added principles. Power, social services, and roads were accorded almost 40% of the
Eighth FYP budget.
To provide a long-term vision for development, the government formulated and released Bhutan 2020: A Vision for Peace,
Prosperity, and Happiness, which sets out the national goals, broad targets, and overall policy principles for the 20 years
following its release in 2000. The concept of gross national happiness was again emphasized and translated into the
following objectives: human development, preservation of culture and heritage, balanced and equitable development,
improved governance, and environmental conservation.
To further realize the concept of gross national happiness, the government prepared the 2004 National Poverty
Reduction Strategy, which supported the Ninth FYP (20022007). This plan sought to (1) improve the quality of life
and income, especially for the poor, by implementing rural access programs; (2) promote private sector growth;
(3) strengthen governance and increase domestic revenues; (4) promote culture and environmental conservation;
and (5) achieve rapid growth and transformation. Fiscal decentralization and devolution of some public services and
decision-making powers to the local level were key strategies of the Ninth FYP. Policies were geared toward a liberalized
and globalized economy with an enhanced participation of private sector.
The Tenth FYP (20082013) rearms the gross national happiness concept.
It has poverty reduction as its overarching
goal, targeting to reduce the poverty headcount rate from 23.2% in 2007 to 15.0% by 2013. The plan targets annual growth
rates above 8% and emphasizes the need to (1) vitalize the economy through increased investments in hydropower,
tourism, manufacturing, and information and communications technology; (2) balance regional development and
manage the rapid pace of urbanization; (3) address the root causes of rural poverty; (4) invest in human capital; and (5)
ensure good governance. The root causes of poverty are seen as remoteness of many populations, marginal landholdings,
and lack of commercial orientation of agricultural production. These are to be redressed through rural connectivity
projects, distribution of royal land to landless people, and greater commercialization of agricultural production. The
government is also seeking to create employment opportunities outside of the hydropower sector for an additional
75,000 people during the Tenth FYP period.
Source: Authors.
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
4
AILhough BhuLun wus noL hIL dIrecLIy by Lhe
gIobuI hnuncIuI crIsIs oI zoo8, Lhe sIowIng oI
neIghborIng economIes ImucLed BhuLun Lhrough
reduced LourIsm receILs
q
und Lhe eIecLrIcILy secLor
exerIenced u neguLIve growLh oI z.q% In zooq
(NSBzo11b).
ThesLeeIundIerro-sIIIconIndusLrIes
wereuIsohIL.ThereuIGDPgrowLhruLedecIInedLo
q.;%und6.;%Inzoo8undzooq,resecLIveIy.The
growLh,however,reboundedLo11.8%Inzo1o,when
consLrucLIon oI Lhe PunuLsungchhu hydroower
rojecLsLurLed.ReuIGDPgrew.6%Inzo11.
6
1.1.1. Growth by Source of Production
BhuLun conLInues Lo LrunsIorm InLo u modern
economy, wILh Lhe IndusLry und servIces secLors
growIng more ruIdIy Lhun Lhe ugrIcuILure secLor.
AgrIcuILurehuddomInuLedBhuLunsouLuLuunLII
1qq.ThedeveIomenLoIhydroresourcesenubIed
IndusLry Lo overLuke ugrIcuILures shure In Lhe
economysouLuL.WILhLheconLInueddeveIomenL
oI hydroower rojecLs, IndusLrys shure oI GDP
jumedIrom1z%In1q81Loqq%Inzo11.ndusLrys
shure rose shurIy In 1q8; und In zoo;, reecLIng
LhegovernmenLdrIveIorhydroowerdeveIomenL
4
Based on data from RMA (2012a) Annual Report 20102011, tourism
receipts decreased from 4.4% of GDP in 2008 to 3.8% in 2009, and
3.5% in 2010.
5
According to RMA (2012a), total sales of major hydropower plants
decreased by 7.5% in 2009.
6
Estimates based on data from World Bank, WDI, accessed January
2013.
und reIuLed consLrucLIon ucLIvILIes. SImIIurIy, Lhe
exunded rovIsIon oI ubIIc servIces und uLIIILIes
In 1q861qqo, Lhe deveIomenL oI InIrusLrucLure
(urLIcuIurIyInLhe1qqos),undLhesurgeInLourIsm
ucLIvILIes In 1qqz und In Lhe zooos roeIIed Lhe
growLhoILheservIcessecLor.rom1q81Lozo11,Lhe
servIcessecLorIncreusedILsshureoIGDPIromo%
Loqz%whIIeugrIcuILuresshuredecIInedIrom8%
Lo1q%(Igure1.).
Industry. TubIe 1.z (. 6-;) shows LhuL Lhe
IndusLry secLor grew Lhe IusLesL, uL uveruge unnuuI
ruLesoIz8%,8%,und11%InLhe1q8os,1qqos,und
zooos,resecLIveIy.Thus,IndusLryhusconLrIbuLed
more Lhun qo% unnuuIIy Lo GDP growLh In Lhe
IusL decudes (und more Lhun o% In Lhe zooos),
IncreusIngILsshureoIGDPIromzo%InLhe1q8os
Lo qz% In Lhe zooos. The secLors Ieu hus IurgeIy
LrunsIormed Lhe economIc Iundscue In BhuLun
Irom un ugrIcuILure-bused economy Lo one LhuL Is
IndusLry-Ied.
The Chhukhu Hydroower ProjecL, BhuLuns
hrsL megu ower rojecL, wus commIssIoned
Ior commercIuI oeruLIon In 1q86.
;
SInce Lhen,
IndusLryhussLeudIIyIncreusedILsGDPshure.The
governmenL conLInued Lo ursue Lhe deveIomenL
oIhydroowerInzoo;,undIndusLryhusemergedus
7
Commissioning of a power plant generally signals start of its
commercial operation. Commissioning involves testing and
verifying power plant operations against the plants intended
rated capacity and other design specications.
GDP = gross domestic product.
Note: Data for Maldives cover 19952010, hence estimated average annual growth rates were from 19962000 to 20012011.
Source: Calculations based on data from World Bank, WDI, accessed 9 January 2013.
Figure 1.2. Average Annual Growth Rate of Per Capita Real GDP, 19812011 (%)
19912000 19811990 20012011 19812011
Bhutan Bangladesh India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka
0
2
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
Based on data from RMA (2012a) Annual Report 20102011, tourism
receipts decreased from 4.4% of GDP in 2008 to 3.8% in 2009, and
3.5% in 2010.
5
According to RMA (2012a), total sales of major hydropower plants
decreased by 7.5% in 2009.
6
Estimates based on data from World Bank, WDI, accessed January
2013.
Development Performance
5
umoredomInunLIuyerLhunservIces.AsLhemujor
growLh drIver, Lhe hydroower secLor consLILuLes
ubouL zo% oI BhuLuns economy, und growLh In
eIecLrIcILy roducLIon und reIuLed consLrucLIon
uccounLed Ior ubouL one-LhIrd oI GDP growLh In
zo1o(Mzo11).
WILhIn Lhe IndusLry secLor, Lhe eIecLrIcILy, gus,
und wuLer suIy subsecLor wus u Lo conLrIbuLor
LoGDPInLhe1q8osundLhezooos.ThesubsecLor
regIsLered u hIgh growLh ruLe oI 6.% und
conLrIbuLed z;.o % Lo GDP growLh In 1q811qqo,
us Lhe Chhukhu hydroeIecLrIc ower IunL wus
commIssIoned Ior commercIuI oeruLIon In 1q86.
8
PoverLyIncIdencedecreusedbyubouL1zercenLuge
oInLsbeLweenzoo;undzo1z,orununnuuIuveruge
decIIne oI uL IeusL z ercenLuge oInLs. The ruLe oI
overLy reducLIon even breuched Lhe governmenLs
LurgeL under Lhe TenLh YP. ThIs Is sIgnIhcunL und
comurubIe Lo Lhe recenL erIormunce oI oLher
18
The government spent Nu2,816 million on social services during
the Seventh FYP, or about 7% of GDP (IMF Government Financial
Statistics, accessed January 2013).
19
These estimates come with some caveats. In the absence of a 2012
national poverty line as of this study, the 2007 poverty line was
used in estimating poverty incidence using 2012 Bhutan Living
Standards Survey data. Accordingly, 2012 prices were adjusted to
2007 prices for consistency.
deveIoIng counLrIes In AsIu, such us Lhe PRC
undVIeLNum.
zo
AILhough
rIvuLesecLordeveIomenLwusLheIocusoIBhuLuns
SIxLh Ive Yeur PIun (YP), Ior 1q8;1qqz, durIng
whIch Lhe governmenL rIvuLIzed Lhe LourIsm
IndusLry,LrunsorLservIces,undroudInIrusLrucLure
und muInLenunce, und dIvesLed u sIgnIhcunL orLIon
oI ILs hoIdIngs In sLuLe enLerrIses, rIvuLe secLor
ucLIvILy remuIns IImILed (BerLeIsmunn SLIILung
zo1o, UN zoo6). The mIcro, smuII, und medIum
enLerrIses (MSMEs), whIch comrIse us much us
q8% oI Lhe rIvuLe secLor, conLInue Lo be enguged
InIow-vuIueundIow-roducLIvILyInvesLmenLssuch
us hundIcruILs und Incense, whIch conLrIbuLe very
IILLIe Lo BhuLuns LoLuI exorLs, do noL conLrIbuLe
sIgnIhcunLIy Lo Lhe nuLIonuI economy, und Lhus LyIIy
Lhe Iuck oI dIversIhcuLIon oI ILs economIc ucLIvILIes
(BerLeIsmunn SLIILung zo1o). On u osILIve noLe,
however,uWorIdBunk(zo1ob)reorLonBhuLuns
InvesLmenL cIImuLe hInLs uL u beLLer ouLIook Ior Lhe
rIvuLe secLor. MedIum-sIzed hrms In BhuLun suw
suIes Increuse by 6% und emIoymenL by z%
beLween zoo6 und zoo8. urge hrms oI 1oo or more
workersregIsLeredLheIusLesLIncreusesInsuIesund
emIoymenL.
q
EIIorLs huve been mude Lo encouruge rIvuLe
InvesLmenL und urLIcIuLIon. One such eIIorL Is un
ucLIve governmenL dIvesLILure rogrum Ior rIvuLI-
zIng muny mujor sLuLe enLerrIses. PrIvuLIzuLIon
covers ouLrIghL suIe, urLIuI mInorILy ownershI,
munugemenL conLrucLIng, Ieuse munugemenL,
commercIuIIzuLIon, und cororuLIzuLIon. SIx ubIIc
enLerrIses huve been broughL under Lhe oIIcy
oI cororuLIzuLIon, whIch meuns Lhey no Ionger
receIve grunLs or subsIdIes Irom Lhe governmenL:
KuenseICororuLIon,BhuLunBroudcusLIngServIces
CororuLIon, BhuLun TeIecom CororuLIon, BhuLun
PosL, oresLry DeveIomenL CororuLIon, und
BhuLun Power CororuLIon; und 11 oLher ubIIc
enLerrIseswereIuIIyrIvuLIzedordIvesLedbyzooq
(Punkujzooq).
3
In the Annual Report (20092010), the RMA noted in the last decade,
however, liberalizing public sector enterprises, and government
incentives in the form of tax and tari exemptions, have not yet
resulted in the desired eect of boosting growth of the private
sector with regard to overall GDP, diversication of revenue, or
employment generation (RMA 2004).
4
A few large rmssuch as Penden Cement Authority Ltd., the
Bhutan Board Products Ltd., Bhutan Carbide and Chemicals
Ltd., the Bhutan Ferro Alloys Ltd., and Bhutan Agro Industries,
Ltd.comprise the manufacturing industry. A number of small
manufacturing rms concentrate on food processing activities
and microenterprises play a prominent role in forest-based and
agro-based activities (Billetoft 2010). The sector also covers small
unregistered activities such as weaving, wall hangings (thanka),
paintings, and clay works (RMA 2012a).
BhuLuns economy, whIIe growIng, uIso
Iuces IImILed oLIons Ior creuLIng jobs. EconomIc
growLh Is drIven by Lhe ower secLor, buL neILher
IL nor ussocIuLed ower-InLensIve IndusLrIes creuLe
udequuLe jobs (WorId Bunk zooqu). EmIoymenL
generuLIonInLheubIIcsecLorIsuIsoIImILed(WorId
Bunk zooqu). GovernmenL secLor emIoymenL
recordedununnuuIuverugegrowLhoI6.%durIng
zoo-zo1o (NSB vurIous yeurs), buL Is noL suIhcIenL
Lo uccommoduLe Lhe Iurge number oI secondury
schooIgruduuLesenLerIngLheIubormurkeL.urLher
deveIomenL oI Lhe rIvuLe secLor Is essenLIuI Lo
rovIde jobs Ior Lhe growIng Iubor Iorce und Lo
mukegrowLhmoreIncIusIve.
Hence,ILIscrILIcuILo
romoLe rIvuLe secLor InvesLmenLs Lo modernIze
undImroveBhuLunsroducLIvecuucILy.
WhIIe BhuLuns InvesLmenL ruLe Is execLed
Lo remuIn hIgh und muy Increuse IurLher, mosL oI
Lhe InvesLmenLs ure IIkeIy Lo conLInue Lo go InLo
hydroower. The chuIIenge Is Lhus Lo romoLe
rIvuLe secLor InvesLmenL In oLher secLors LhuL
wIII heI dIversIIy Lhe IndusLrIuI buse, creuLe job
oorLunILIes, und romoLe IncIusIve growLh. The
dIugnosLIcs Lree resenLed In Box z.1 Iuys ouL Lhe
urouch IoIIowed In LhIs chuLer Lo exumIne Lhe
consLruInLsLoIncIusIvegrowLh.
2.1. Cost of Finance
ThecosLoIborrowIngInBhuLunIshIghreIuLIve
Lo LhuL In comuruLor counLrIes. Ls reuI domesLIc
InLeresLruLehusbeen;.q%whIIeLhuLInLheresLoI
SouLh AsIus hus runged Irom 1.q% Lo .% In zo11
(Igure z.). BhuLuns reuI domesLIc InLeresL ruLe
wus urLIcuIurIy hIgh In Lhe zooos, rungIng Irom
;.6%Lo11.6%.
$FFHVVWRDQGFRVWRIQDQFHFRQWLQXHVWREH
a critical constraint to private investment,
especially to MSMEs.
WhIIe Iurger cororuLe InvesLors do noL
seem Lo Iuce consLruInLs on IundIng, MSMEs huve
dIIhcuILy uccessIng hnunce. ThIs Is shown In Lwo
successIve surveys, Lhe hrsL by Lhe WorId Bunk
und nLernuLIonuI Inunce CororuLIon (C) In
5
In its Annual Report (20032004), the RMA observed that in the
last decade, however, liberalizing public sector enterprises, and
government incentives in the form of tax and tari exemptions,
have not yet resulted in the desired eect of boosting growth of
the private sector with regard to overall GDP, diversication of
revenue, or employment generation (RMA 2004).
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
21
Box 2.1. Growth Diagnostics Framework
The diagnostics approach applied in this study broadly follows the growth diagnostics framework developed by
Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (2005). The growth diagnostics approach provides a consistent framework for identifying
the most critical or binding constraints to growth and for discerning the priorities and sequence of policies required
to ignite and sustain growth. The tool is an approach to economic reforms by identifying the most critical constraints
to growth and prioritizing the reform agenda. This diers from the traditional approach of providing a laundry list
of policies, as implied by the Washington consensus. Instead, the growth diagnostics approach recognizes that the
economic and political environment diers a great deal among developing countries. There is no one-size ts-all solution
to development problems and, therefore, the ordering of policy priorities contingent on country-specic circumstances
is critically important. Further, countries at an early stage of development may not have adequate capacity to implement
a wide array of policy reforms at the same time. With the diagnostics approach, reforms can start with easing a few critical
areas that truly constrain growth. The approach thus oers a practical tool for policymakers and development planners
to use in formulating country-specic growth strategies. The application of growth diagnostics is one of the eorts in the
search for a new approach to growth strategy after the Washington consensus was questioned.
The growth diagnostics approach starts with a set of proximate determinants of growth, investigates which of these
pose the greatest impediments or are the most critical constraints to higher growth, and gures out specic distortions
behind the impediments. The point of departure of the inquiry is a standard endogenous growth model in which growth
depends on the social return to accumulation, private appropriability of this social return, and the cost of nancing. Each
of these three broad determinants of growth is in turn a function of many other factors, which can be presented in a
problem tree (Box Figure 2.1.1).
The problem tree provides a framework for diagnosing critical constraints to growth. The diagnosis starts by asking what
keeps the level of private investment and entrepreneurship low. Is it low social return to investment, inadequate private
appropriability of the social return, or high cost of nancing? If it is low social return, is that due to insucient levels
of complementary factors of productionin particular, human capital, technical know-how, and/or infrastructure? If
the impediment is poor private appropriability, is it due to macro vulnerability, high taxation, poor property rights and
contract enforcement, laborcapital conicts, information and learning externalities, and/or coordination failures? If high
cost of nance is the problem, is it due to low domestic savings, poor intermediation in the domestic nancial markets,
or poor integration with external nancial markets?
Box Figure 2.1.1 Growth Diagnostics Framework
continued on next page
Low levels of private investment
and entrepreneurship
Low return to economic activity
Low social returns Low appropriability Bad international nance Poor local nance
Poor
geography
Poor
infrastructure
Low human
capital
High cost of nance
Low domestic
savings
Poor
intermediation
Government
failures
Market
failures
Macro risks:
nancial,
monetary, scal
instability
Micro risks:
property rights,
corruption, taxes
Coordination
externalities
Information
externalities:
self-discovery
22
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
zooq, und Lhe second by Lhe WorId Bunk (zo1ob).
RuruIIy bused mIcroenLrereneurs und Iurmers,
In urLIcuIur, consIder Ioun requIremenLs Lo be
InsurmounLubIe und huve Lo conLend wILh Lhe hIgh
cosLoIInIormuIIouns.
OI Lhe zzq hrms LhuL resonded Lo Lhe WorId
Bunk und C EnLerrIse Survey, z1.;% oI MSMEs
cIuImed LhuL uccess Lo hnunce Is u crILIcuI consLruInL.
OI hrms (smuII- und medIum-sIzed) surveyed by Lhe
WorIdBunknvesLmenLCIImuLeAssessmenL,o.%
hud Lhe sume resonse (Igure z.q). MSMEs muke
u Lhe buIk oI BhuLunese rIvuLe hrms.
SmuII-scuIe borrowers hnd Lhe rIncIuI
requIremenL Ior LrudILIonuI coIIuLeruI Lo be u
mujor hurdIe. BhuLuns coIIuLeruI-bused bunkIng
sysLem LyIcuIIy reIIes on morLguges oI LILIed reuI
roerLy or muchInery und equImenL Lo secure u
Ioun. Under u coIIuLeruI-bused bunkIng sysLem, u
borrower muy noL be ubIe Lo geL u Ioun desILe Lhe
uvuIIubIIILy oI secIuI hnuncIng schemes. PersonuI
usseLs ure Lhe mosL IrequenLIy used coIIuLeruI In
BhuLun, IoIIowed by muchInery und equImenL,
und Iund und buIIdIngs; uccounLs receIvubIe und
InvenLorIes ure noL wIdeIy used (WorId Bunk
zo1ob). OLher obsLucIes IncIude rocedures und
documenL requIremenLs such us Lhe submIssIon oI
u busIness regIsLruLIon or IIcense, und InIormuLIon
LhuL LyIcuI Iurmers und mIcroenLrereneurs huve
dIIhcuILy rovIdIng.
Thus, Iurmers und ruruIIy bused enLerrIses
uLuwILhLhehIghcosLoIInIormuIIouns.nIormuI
money Ienders, IormIng ubouL o% oI Lhe credIL
murkeL,huvebecomeLhesourceoIIounsIorbuyIng
At each node of the problem tree, the diagnosis looks for signals that would help answer the question. The two types of
diagnostic signals that one can look for are price signals and nonprice signals. Examples of price signals are returns to
education, interest rates, and cost of transport. For example, if education is undersupplied, returns to skills/education
would be high and unemployment of skilled people would be low. If investment is constrained by savings, interest rates
would be high and growth would respond to changes in available savings (for example, inows of foreign resources). If
poor transport link is a serious constraint, bottlenecks and high private costs of transport would be evident.
The use of nonprice signals is based on the idea that when a constraint binds, the result is activities designed to get
around it. For example, high taxation could lead to high informality (e.g., underreporting of income, resulting in lower
tax revenues); poor legal institutions could result in high demand for informal mechanisms of conict resolution and
contract enforcement; and poor nancial intermediation could lead to internalization of nance through business
groups. Cross-country and cross-period benchmarking and results of business surveys are useful means to gauge
whether particular diagnostic evidence signals a binding constraint for the country concerned.
Sources: Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (2005); Authors.
Box 2.1. continued
Source: World Bank, WDI, accessed January 2013.
Figure 2.3. Real Domestic Interest Rates (%)
20
15
5
0
10
15
10
5
20
India Maldives Sri Lanka Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
23
ugrIcuILure InuLs und coIng wILh emergencIes,
such us sIckness, deuLh, und cro IuIIure.
6
They
churge nomInuI InLeresL ruLes rungIng Irom % Lo
1o%ermonLh.
;
ThegovernmenLhusrecognIzedLhuLcoIIuLeruI-
bused commercIuI bunk Iouns wIII noL be ubIe Lo
resond Lo Lhe MSMEs credIL demunds. L hus,
LhereIore, munduLed Lhe BhuLun DeveIomenL
Inunce CororuLIon (BDC)
8
Lo enguge In mIcro,
smuII,undruruIugrIcuILureIendIng.Boxz.zrovIdes
InIormuLIon on Lhe BDC`s hnuncIuI roducLs und
LheIr corresondIng InLeresL ruLes. AILhough Lhe
BDC hus been oeruLIng sInce 1q88 us Lhe muIn
ugrIcuILuruI credIL InsLILuLIon, IL hus noL been ubIe
Lo subsLunLIuIIy meeL Lhe hnuncIng requIremenLs oI
ILsInLendedborrowers.
q
AgrIcuILureengugesubouL
;o%oIBhuLunsouIuLIon,buLLheBDCrovIdes
credIL Lo Iess Lhun zo% oI Lhe secLors 86,zo
IumIIIes. Ls shure In Lhe counLry`s LoLuI hnuncIuI
6
The monastic institutions that had substantial revenue collections
of their own also lend money, grains, and dairy produce to
creditworthy individuals or families. However, the informal
moneylenders provide the bulk of loans in the rural areas.
7
Per RMA, this is based on the Bhutan nancial inclusion survey of
household nancial practices and strategies conducted through
focus group discussion by the World Bank in 2012.
8
A Royal Charter established the BDFC on 31 January 1988 to
provide agricultural credit in the agriculture and rural areas. Under
the Financial Services Act, the RMA has the legal authority to
mandate nancial institutions to do priority sector lending (RMA
2011b).
9
The BDFC operates under the Company Registration Act 2000 and
Financial Institution Act 1992 (Pathak 2010).
Large rms
0 5 10 15
Percent of rms
20 25 30 35
Political Instability
Telecommunications
Crime, Theft, and Disorder
Electricity
Corruption
Courts
Customs and Trade Regulations
Business Licensing and Permits
Access to Land
Practices of Competitors in the Informal Sector
Inadequately Educated Workforce
Tax Administration
Labor Regulations
Tax Rates
Transport
Hiring Foreign Workers
Access to Finance
Medium rms Small rms All rms
Source: World Bank (2010b).
Figure 2.4. Constraints Identied by Firms, 2010
Box 2.2. Bhutan Development Finance
Corporations Interest Rates and
Financial Products
A
s of early 2013, the Bhutan Development and
Finance Corporation (BDFC) was the countrys only
nancial institution mandated to provide agriculture
loans and micronance loans. The BDFC provides
rural credit to farmers at 10%13% interest rates per
annum. It has 22 branches and 3 regional oces.
a
The
BDFC has three agricultural loan products: the Group
Guarantee Lending Scheme (GGLS), Small Individual
Loan (SIL), and Commercial Agricultural Loan.
The Group Guarantee Lending Scheme (GGLS). An
adaptation of the Grameen
b
microcredit model, the
GGLS is designed especially for small-scale farmers
and microentrepreneurs. No collateral is required and
the maximum loan size was originally Nu50,000 (or
about $925), which was later increased to Nu100,000
($1,850). In practice, the actual loan size is very small,
at Nu5,000 ($93). A solidarity group of 37 members
is formed and the loan is disbursed with each group
member providing a loan guarantee. Clients must
deposit Nu50 ($0.93) per month as compulsory
savings and 5% of every loan is retained and deposited
in a compulsory savings account. The client can also
participate in a voluntary savings account and other
schemes.
continued on next page
24
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
usseLswusubouLIessLhun%usoIDecemberzoo8
(PuLhuk zo1o). The BDC oIIers u IImILed runge
oI hnuncIuI roducLs Lo ILs LurgeL cIIenLeIe. WhIIe
uvuIIubIIILy oI secIuI hnunce schemes muy be u
good sLurL, IL does noL necessurIIy guurunLee beLLer
credILuccessIbIIILy.
The resenL
AsIunDeveIomenLBunkrojecLIonsshowLhuLLhe
currenL uccounL dehcIL wIII IIkeIy ersIsL uL ubouL
zo% oI GDP In Yzo1 und Yzo1q, drIven by
sLrong demund Ior ImorLs reIuLed Lo hydroower
deveIomenL(ADBzo1).
TheRMAshouIdsLeuILseIIorLsLomonILor
exLernuI hnuncIng rIsks und muInLuIn udequuLe
IoreIgn reserves Lo ensure hnuncIuI sLubIIILy. As u
new hydroower rojecL cycIe Is sLurLIng, ImorLs
wIII conLInue Lo grow und currenL uccounL dehcILs
wIII wIden. ThIs wIII necessILuLe hnuncIng Lhe dehcIL
Lhrough u combInuLIon oI cuILuI Inows Irom
ndIu Ior ower IunL consLrucLIon, deveIomenL
ussIsLunce ows, IoreIgn dIrecL InvesLmenL, und
borrowIng. urLhermore, exLernuI hnuncIuI rIsks
muy urIse II IoreIgn uId ows dro und exunsIonury
hscuI und moneLury oIIcIes conLInue. PrudenL
mucroeconomIc munugemenL und eIIorLs Lo
enhunce domesLIc hnuncIng wIII be crILIcuI Lo ensure
mucroeconomIc und hnuncIuI sLubIIILy.
2.3.2. Microeconomic Risks
Government effectiveness is gradually
improving.
GovernmenL eIIecLIveness Is uIIecLed by
Lhe quuIILy oI ubIIc servIce rovIsIon und Lhe
bureuucrucy, Lhe comeLence oI cIvII servunLs, Lhe
Indeendence oI Lhe cIvII servIce Irom oIILIcuI
ressure, und Lhe credIbIIILy oI Lhe governmenLs
commILmenL Lo oIIcIes. The WorId Bunks onIIne
WorIdwIde Governunce ndIcuLors score more
Lhun zoo counLrIes on governmenL eIIecLIveness.
The muIn Iocus oI Lhe IndIcuLors Is on Lhe InuLs
requIred Ior Lhe governmenL Lo be ubIe Lo roduce
und ImIemenL good oIIcIes und deIIver ubIIc
goods. n Lhe IndIcuLors runkIng, BhuLun scores
Lhe hIghesL umong Lhe SouLh AsIun economIes.
AILhough ILs ercenLIIe runkIng droed Lo q
xval
ci
xval
ci
xval
ci
xval
ci
c
c
i
i ( )
where XVAL
CI
is the export value of product I by country C and
GDPPCc is gross domestic product per capita in country C.
LoLuI exorLs.
z
SohIsLIcuLIon cuLures Lhe Income
conLenLoIucounLrysexorLbuskeL.AhIghervuIue
oI EXPY IndIcuLes LhuL Lhe counLry hus ucquIred
comIex cuubIIILIes LhuL muke IL eusIer Lo exorL
evenmoresohIsLIcuLedroducLs.
AsrecenLIyusLheeurIy1qqos,BhuLunsexorL
buskeL wus Lhe mosL sohIsLIcuLed In SouLh AsIu,
evenmoresoLhunLhuLoIndIu(Igurez.q).ThIs
wus IurgeIy becuuse BhuLun hud u hIgh shure oI
chemIcuI und chemIcuI roducLs und mIneruI IueIs
(whIchIncIudeeIecLrIcILy)InILsexorLbuskeLInLhe
eurIy1qqos(Igurez.8).However,usLheshureoI
chemIcuIundchemIcuIroducLshusIuIIenoverLIme,
sohusLheoveruIIexorLsohIsLIcuLIonuILhoughIL
IssLIIIumongLhehIghesLInLheregIon.
32
The measure of sophistication of a countrys export basket (EXPY) is
from Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007). It is a weighted average
of the sophistication level of the products that a country exports,
weights being share in the countrys exports. It is calculated
as follows:
EXPY
c
=
x PRODY
i
,
xval
ci
xval
ci
i
i
where XVAL
C I
is the export value of product I by country C.
n.e.s. = not elsewhere stated.
Note: Classication based on 1-digit Standard International Trade Classication (SITC) Revision 2. For each period, average shares are shown.
Source: Estimates based on datasets from UNComtrade, accessed December 2012.
Figure 2.38. Bhutans Average Export Values, Selected Periods (% of total)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
20082009
20052007
19981999
19911994
Chemical and chemical products
Manufacturing goods Machinery and transport equipment
Miscellaneous manufactured articles Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s.
Food Beverages and tobacco
Crude materials Mineral fuels
Animal and vegetable oils
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
55
The reuson behInd Lhe hIgh sohIsLIcuLIon
oI BhuLuns exorL buskeL vIs-u-vIs comuruLor
counLrIes In Lhe regIon Is LhuL (Igure z.qo)
BhuLuns buskeL hus u Iurge shure (uImosL o%) oI
hIgh und medIum PRODY roducLs LhuL ure ubove
Lhe qoLh ercenLIIe In Lhe PRODY dIsLrIbuLIon.
33
The products are divided into ve groups based on the quintiles
to which they belong in terms of the distribution of the
sophistication level of the products. Group 1 is the top quintile, i.e.,
products whose sophistication level is above the 80th percentile.
Group 2 comprises products with sophistication level between
60th and 80th percentiles, group 3 is made of products with
PRODY between the 40th and 60th percentiles, and group 4 is
the second quintile with products of sophistication level between
the 20th and 60th percentiles. Group 5 is the bottommost
quintile, comprising products with sophistication level below the
20th percentile.
BhuLun hus Lhe second hIghesL shure (more Lhun
8%) oI exorL roducLs In Lhe hIgh PRODY grou
(grous 1 und z), und Lhe hIghesL shure (more
Lhun qo%) In Lhe medIum PRODY grou (grou
). ThIs Is muInIy becuuse chemIcuIs und chemIcuI
roducLs, whIch ure IncIuded In hIgh und medIum
PRODY grous, used Lo be umong BhuLuns mujor
exorLs In Lhe eurIy 1qqos und eIecLrIcILy, whIch Is
In grou , Is BhuLuns Lo exorL. n comurIson,
oLhercounLrIesInLheregIon(exceLndIuundLhe
MuIdIves)huveureIuLIveIyIurgeshure(8o%qo%)
oIIowsohIsLIcuLIonroducLs(I.e.,grousqund).
The overuII sohIsLIcuLIon IeveI oI BhuLuns
exorLs hus been sLugnunL (Igure z.q).
DIsuggreguLIng BhuLuns exorL buskeL by PRODY
grousshowsLhuLLheshureoIhIghIysohIsLIcuLed
Notes: For each period, average shares are shown. No export data are available for Bangladesh in 1999 and 20082009; Nepal, 20052008; Pakistan,
1994; and Sri Lanka, 1998.
Source: Authors estimates based on datasets from UNComtrade, accessed January 2013.
Figure 2.39. Sophistication of Export Baskets in South Asian Countries, Selected Periods
19911994 19981999 20052007 20082009
0
6,000
4,000
2,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
India Maldives Sri Lanka Nepal Pakistan Bhutan Bangladesh
(
2
0
0
5
$
)
Notes: No export data are available for Bangladesh in 20082009 and Nepal in 20052008. Groups 15 are the quintiles of the PRODY distribution.
Group 1 is the top quintile and Group 5, the bottom quintile.
Source: Authors estimates based on datasets from UNComtrade, accessed January 2013.
Figure 2.40. Disaggregation of Exports by Technological Sophistication Group,
20052009 Average (% of total)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Nepal
Maldives
India
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Group 2 (PRODY between 14,123 and 18,746) Group 3 (PRODY between 9,729 and 14,124)
Group 4 (PRODY between 5,056 and 9,730) Group 5 (PRODY less than 5,057)
Group 1 (PRODY greater than 18,745)
56
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
roducLs In LoLuI exorLs hus decIIned Irom un
uveruge oI zz% In 1qq11qqq Lo onIy 6% In zoo8
zooq(Igurez.q1).BuLruIdexunsIonoIPRODY
grou , whIch IncIudes eIecLrIcILy, hus heIed
BhuLun Lo muInLuIn Lhe overuII sohIsLIcuLIon IeveI
oI ILs exorLs. The shure oI PRODY grou In
BhuLunsexorLroducLsIncreusedIromubouL1%
oI LoLuI exorLs In 1qq11qqq Lo over qz% oI LoLuI
exorLsIrom1qqqon.
Moreover, although Bhutan successfully
exports some sophisticated products, the
FRXQWU\V FDSDELOLWLHV WR SURGXFH UHPDLQ
XQGHUH[SORLWHG GXH WR D ODFN RI SURGXFWLRQ
diversity.
ProducLIve cuubIIILIes ure oILen roducL-
secIhc. Such cuubIIILIes IncIude knowIedge
ubouL Lhe roducL, hysIcuI usseLs, InLermedIuLe
InuLs,IuborreIuLIons,IuborLruInIngrequIremenLs,
LechnoIogy, murkeLIng, InIrusLrucLure, roerLy
rIghLs, reguIuLory requIremenLs, und oLher ubIIc
goods. A counLry LhuL hus umussed roducLIve
cuubIIILIesInoneroducLmuyhuveucomuruLIve
udvunLuge In roducIng whuL Lhe PRODY Index
Lerms neurby roducLs, whIch use sImIIur
cuubIIILIes. However, II Lhere ure Iew neurby
roducLs und Lhe exIsLIng roducLs ure noL weII
connecLedLhuL Is, Lhe counLrys currenL seL oI
cuubIIILIescunnoLbeeusIIyuIIcubIeInroducIng
oLher roducLs-Lhe counLry wIII hnd IL dIIhcuIL
Lo exund ILs roducL cuLegorIes. n LhIs conLexL,
LrunsIerubIIILy oI LechnoIogy ucross roducLs cun
be guuged by Lhe IeveI oI Lhe counLrys roducLIon
Notes: Groups 15 are the quintiles of the PRODY distribution. Group 1 is the top quintile and Group 5, the bottom quintile.
Source: Authors estimates based on datasets from UNComtrade, accessed January 2013. For each period, average shares are shown.
Figure 2.41. Disaggregation of Exports by PRODY Group for Bhutan, Selected Periods (% of total)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
20082009
20052007
19981999
19911994
Group 2 (PRODY between 14,123 and 18,746) Group 3 (PRODY between 9,729 and 14,124)
Group 4 (PRODY between 5,056 and 9,730) Group 5 (PRODY less than 5,057)
Group 1 (PRODY greater than 18,745)
dIversILy und Lhe roxImILy oI ILs roducLs Lo Lhe
core cIusLer oI roducL suce. Box z. (. 8-q)
rovIdes Lhe roducL suce unuIysIs Ior BhuLuns
exorLsusIngLheroducLsucemus.
BhuLuns exorL buskeL hus IImILed dIversILy,
wILh u Iew roducLs LhuL ure In reIuLIveIy
sohIsLIcuLedcuLegorIesbuLureIurIromLhecore
cIusLer oI roducL suce. ThIs cun be exumIned by
IookIng uL Lhe number oI roducLs LhuL BhuLun
exorLssuccessIuIIy.
q
OnecunsuyucounLryexorLs
u roducL successIuIIy when Lhe roducLs shure
In Lhe counLrys LoLuI exorLs ure Iurger Lhun ILs
shure In Lhe worId Lrude. ThIs Is uIso reIerred Lo us
u counLrys reveuIed comuruLIve udvunLuge Ior
exorLIngLhuLroducL.
ThenumberoIroducLsIorwhIchBhuLunhus
ureveuIedcomuruLIveudvunLugehusremuInedIow
overLheyeurscomuredwILhoLhercounLrIesInLhe
regIon (Igure z.qz). urLher, Lhe dIversIhcuLIon oI
34
Hidalgo et al. (2007) propose using the number of
products exported with revealed comparative advantage
as a measure of diversication. Revealed comparative
advantage (RCA) is dened, based on Balassa (1965), as:
RCA
c i
=
,
xval
ci
xval
ci
xval
ci
xval
ci
c
i
i, c
where xval
ci
is the value of the exports of country c in the
product i. RCA is larger than one.
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
57
BhuLunsexorLbuskeL,I.e.,LhenumberoIexorLed
roducLs wILh reveuIed comuruLIve udvunLuge,
hus noL chunged much In Lhe IusL zo yeurs
(;commodILIesIn1qq1Loq1commodILIesInzooq).
MosL oI Lhe roducLs wILh reveuIed comuruLIve
udvunLugesInce1qq1ureugrIcuILuruIroducLsund
ruwmuLerIuIs.
BhuLunsexorLbuskeLuIsoIncIudesuIImILed
number oI core roducLs.
Core roducLs
consIsL oI chemIcuIs, muchInery, und meLuIs, und
on uveruge ure consIdered more sohIsLIcuLed
und requIre u wIder und more comIex runge oI
cuubIIILIes Lhun oLher roducLs. The number oI
core roducLs LhuL BhuLun exorLed wILh reveuIed
comuruLIveudvunLugeIncreusedIromIn1qq1Lo
1oInzooqbuLremuInssmuIIvIs-u-vIscomuruLor
counLrIes.SIxoILhe1ocoreroducLsuremeLuIsund
ure chemIcuIs, whIch Ied Lo Lhe hIgh vuIue oI Lhe
sohIsLIcuLIon runkIng oI BhuLuns exorL buskeL
(Igurez.q).
%KXWDQV H[SRUW EDVNHW LQGLFDWHV OLPLWHG
WHFKQLFDO WUDQVIHUDELOLW\ RI LWV FXUUHQW VHW
RI FDSDELOLWLHV DQG KHQFH WKH SUHVHQFH RI
PDUNHWIDLOXUHV
BhuLuns exorL buskeL cun be churucLerIzed
us reIuLIveIy sohIsLIcuLed buL InsuIhcIenLIy
dIversIhed. The Iuck oI dIversILy In BhuLun`s exorLs,
esecIuIIy wILh concenLruLIon In onIy u Iew core
35
The denition of core products is from Hidalgo et al (2007).
= no export data.
Note: No export data are available for Bangladesh in 1999 and 2009 and for Nepal in 2005.
Source: Authors estimates based on datasets from UNComtrade, accessed January 2013.
Figure 2.42. Average Product Diversication: Products with Comparative Advantage,
1991, 1999, 2005, and 2009 (all products)
1991
50
37
27
35
76
94
44
194
34
101
95 96
78
46
29
240
120118
41
23
224
121
126
116
177
1999 2005 2009
0
100
50
150
200
250
300
India Maldives Sri Lanka Nepal Pakistan Bhutan Bangladesh
roducLs,IendsIILLIeoorLunILyIorLhecounLryLo
exund ILs roducLIve cuubIIILIes Lo new roducL
cuLegorIes.AsLhecurrenLseLoIcuubIIILIesIseusIIy
LrunsIerubIe,newroducLswIIIrequIreunewseLoI
cuubIIILIes. AcquIrIng u new seL oI cuubIIILIes Is
cosLIy und LhIs muy dIscouruge InvesLmenL In new
economIc ucLIvILIes. As such, murkeL IuIIures ure u
crILIcuIconsLruInLInLheconLexLoIBhuLun.
The Tenth FYP espouses a national industrial
policy and strategy that aims to expand and
diversify Bhutans industrial and export
EDVH LQFUHDVH SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG YDOXH
addition, and retain an accelerated pace of
hydropower development.
UnderLheTenLhYP,IndusLrIuIIzuLIonexLends
beyond Lhe munuIucLurIng secLor, Lo encomuss
oLher economIc ucLIvILIes such us hydroower,
LourIsm,cuILuruIIndusLrIes,undInIormuLIonund
communIcuLIons LechnoIogy. CuILuruI IndusLrIes
InvoIves Lhe creuLIon und roducLIon oI goods und
servIces LhuL ure cuILuruI In nuLure und deuI wILh
herILuge,IILeruLure,erIormIngurLs,undLhemedIu.
The TenLh YP uIso cuIIs Ior suorL Ior cuILuruI
hundIcruILsundLexLIIesundIormIneruIsLhuLneed
LoberocessedbeIoreexorLIng.TheYPseeksLo
esLubIIsh IndusLrIuI esLuLes und urks und secIuI
economIc zones Lo sLrengLhen Lhe munuIucLurIng
buse. n romoLIng susLuInubIe IndusLrIuI deveIo-
menL, Lhe governmenL wIII Iocus on MSMEs,
cooeruLIves,undwomenenLrereneurs.
58
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
Box 2.5. Product Space Analysis
H
ausmann and Klinger (2006) pioneered product space analysis as a methodology to analyze structural transformation
of an economy. They specically analyzed a key aspect of structural transformationproduct diversication.
Furthermore, Hidalgo et al (2007) created a mapping of products across global economies (Box Figure 2.5.1). This accounts for
proximity by computing the probability of a country having a comparative advantage in one product given its comparative
advantage in another product. Proximity measures capabilities that are used to produce one product, capabilities that
can also be used to produce another product. (Capabilities could include knowledge about the product, physical assets,
intermediate inputs, labor relations, labor training requirements, technology, marketing, infrastructure, property rights,
regulatory requirements, and other public goods.) Hidalgo et al. explain further using the analogy that the product space
is a forest, with trees as the products and monkeys as rms. A monkey can easily jump to nearby (proximate) trees but
needs to exert a gargantuan eort to transfer to far away trees. If the monkey is in the clustered portion of the forest, the
monkey has more opportunities to jump from one tree to another. The stock of capabilities accumulated jumping from
tree to tree will serve the monkey well in the future. In summary, the capabilities that rms learned in producing several
products (diversication) can lead to the development of more high-end products (sophistication).
Hidalgo et al. (2007) measured the distance (proximity) of each pair of products and developed the concept of product
space. They applied network theory to visualize the distance between products by their relative similarities in needed
capabilities. Hidalgo et al. used an international trade dataset based primarily on the Standard International Trade
Classication (SITC) Revision 2 disaggregated at the 4-digit level. Data were available for 773 products. The node size is
proportional to the world trade value. The map is highly heterogeneous, with the dense part representing many products
that are closely connected to each otherparticularly machinery, chemicals, and capital-intensive products. This indicates
the ease with which rms can move from one commodity to another. In the periphery, products such as natural resources,
primary products, and agricultural products are weakly connected to others. This indicates diculty of moving from these
products to other products
Box Figure 2.5.1. Product Space
Oil
Cereals
Fishing
Garments
Metallurgy
Textiles
Chemicals
Electronics
Vehicles
Mining
Tropical
Agriculture
Animal
Agriculture
Forest
Products
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
59
Box Figure 2.5.2 shows the product space maps for Bhutan by plotting Bhutans exports on the product space map
shown in Box Figure 2.5.1. The following gure shows the product space at four points in time. As discussed in the
main text, Bhutans exports are far away from the core of the product space. Thus, even though Bhutan has some
complex capabilities and is successfully exporting some sophisticated products, there are no products nearby, i.e., the
capabilities used in those products are not easily transferrable to other products. Bhutans orientation in the product
space has not changed much over time.
Notes: Black squares represent export products with revealed comparative advantage (RCA 1). Refer to Box Figure 2.5.1 for colors and sizes of circles,
and sizes of nodes.
Source: Estimates based on datasets from UNComtrade, accessed January 2013, and the product space program from Hidalgo et al. (2007).
Box Figure 2.5.2. Bhutan Product Space Maps
1991 1999
2005 2009
60
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
The product space analysis for Bhutans
H[SRUWV FDQ VXJJHVW D VHW RI QHDUE\
products with a high strategic value.
The roducL suce unuIysIs cun be used Lo
IdenLIIy roducLs LhuL ure noL currenLIy exorLed
wILh reveuIed comuruLIve udvunLuge buL LhuL ure
neurby, reIuLIveIy sohIsLIcuLed, und huve u hIgh
sLruLegIc vuIue. These ure shown In Igures z.q
und z.qq.
6
Igure z.q shows Lhe roducLs LhuL
ureneurby,uLumIddIedIsLunce,orIuruwuy
;
Irom
Lhe seL oI roducLs currenLIy exorLed successIuIIy,
undLhuLuremoresohIsLIcuLed(I.e.,huveuhIgher
PRODY) Lhun Lhe currenL overuII sohIsLIcuLIon oI
BhuLuns exorL buskeL (I.e., EXPY). or exumIe,
mIIkundduIryroducLs(suchuscheeseundcreum),
meuLs, und wooI ure umong Lhe neurby roducLs
wILh hIgher sohIsLIcuLIon, buL ure noL beIng
IuIIy exIoILed und ure noL beIng IncIuded In Lhe
governmenLs LurgeL roducLs. As Lhese roducLs
ure more sohIsLIcuLed Lhun Lhe currenL uveruge,
venLurIng InLo Lhem couId Increuse Lhe overuII
sohIsLIcuLIonoIBhuLunsexorLbuskeL.
The Lo zo roducLs wILh Lhe hIghesL PRODY
Ior euch oI Lhe neurby, mIddIe, und Iur uwuy
cuLegorIes ure resenLed In Igure z.q us orunge
doLs. or comurIson, Lhe secLors LurgeLed under
LheTenLhYPureuIsoshown(InbIuckundgrey).
8
WhIIeLhereuresomeoverIusInLheneurbyundLhe
LurgeL roducLs, such us some meLuI roducLs und
IerLIIIzers,mosLoILheLurgeLedsecLorsureeILheruL
36
Given the landlocked nature of Bhutan, Standard International
Trade Classication (SITC) 2-digit code 03 (Fish) was excluded from
the analysis. Also, as Bhutan is not a known exporter of oil and gas,
SITC 2-digit codes 33 (petroleum and petroleum products) and 34
(gas) were excluded.
37
In a path-dependent view of development, as is the case under
product space analysis, the kind of products a country produces is
important to the process of structural transformation. This means
the orientation of a country within the product space is important,
i.e., whether it is in the dense or the sparse part of the product
space. This matters for successfully exporting a new product and
the ease with which the current capabilities in the economy can
be adapted to a new product. If a product is in the dense part
of the product space, it is easier to nd products that use similar
capabilities. In other words, a product with high density is nearby
other products. Distance is thus the inverse of density.
38
As the sectors targeted under the Tenth FYP fall into very broad
categories, all products within those sectors, at the SITC 2-digit
level, have been assumed to be targeted for the purpose of this
exercise. As a result, the exercise here may be overstating the
targeted products. The sectors considered to be targets, in terms of
the SITC-2digit codes, are crude fertilizer and crude minerals (27),
metalliferous ores (28), textile yarn and fabrics (65), nonmetallic
minerals (66), iron and steel (67), nonferrous metals (68), and
manufactures of metals not elsewhere specied (69).
mIddIe or Iur uwuy dIsLunces. CreuLIng InvesLmenL
oorLunILIesLoroduceundexorLLheseroducLs
cunheIBhuLunLoexundILsroducLIvecuubIIILIes
undenhunceILsIong-LermgrowLhrosecLs.
AnoLher ImorLunL quesLIon couId be whIch
roducLs huve Lhe hIghesL oLenLIuI Ior uIIowIng
BhuLuns roducLIon Lo eusIIy move Lo oLher
roducLs. ThIs Is meusured usIng whuL Huusmunn
undKIInger(zoo6)reIerLousLhesLruLegIcvuIue.
The sLruLegIc vuIue oI u roducL meusures how Lhe
execLedvuIueoIunexIoILedoorLunILIeschunges
II BhuLun were Lo successIuIIy exorL, I.e., ucquIre
reveuIed comuruLIve udvunLuge, In u urLIcuIur
roducL.
q
The sLruLegIc vuIue oI u roducL Is u
roxy Ior Lhe sIIIovers derIved Irom successIuIIy
exorLIng LhuL urLIcuIur roducL. NoL uII roducLs
wouId huve Lhe sume ImucL Ior IuLure growLh.
ProducLs LhuL ure In Lhe core oI Lhe roducL suce
ureweIIconnecLedLooLherroducLsundexorLIng
such roducLs wouId meun LhuL Lhese cuubIIILIes
couIdbeusedInuvurIeLyoIoLherroducLs.noLher
words, by successIuIIy exorLIng cerLuIn roducLs,
LheroducerscouIduIyLheucquIredcuubIIILIes
LoroduceoLherroducLs.SuchroducLsuresuIdLo
huveuhIghsLruLegIcvuIue.
Igurez.qqhIghIIghLsLheLozoroducLswILh
Lhe hIghesL sLruLegIc vuIue Ior euch oI Lhe neurby,
mIddIe, und Iur uwuy cuLegorIes (shown In orunge
doLs). WhIIe Lhere ure some overIus (such us
meLuI roducLs) beLween Lhe Lo zo roducLs LhuL
ure neurby und huve u hIgh sLruLegIc vuIue und Lhe
roducLs LurgeLed under Lhe TenLh YP (shown In
bIuck und grey), muny oLhers (e.g., mIIk und duIry
roducLs such us cheese und creum, und some oIIs
underIumes)urenoLInLheLurgeLgroubuLhuveu
hIghsLruLegIcvuIueundureneurbyLoLhecurrenLseL
oIcuubIIILIes.SuccessIuIIyexorLIngLheseroducLs
(I.e.,ucquIrIngreveuIedcomuruLIveudvunLuge)cun
heI Increuse BhuLuns roducLIve cuubIIILIes Lo
roduceoLherroducLsoveruerIodoILIme.
39
The strategic value of each unexploited product (product j) is the
potential contribution of that product to the open forest if it is
assumed to be exported with comparative advantage. It can be
dened as
Strategic Value
j
=
(1 - x
i
)%PRODY
i
,
i j
i j
i
j
where x
i
= 1 if the product i has comparative advantage, and x
i
= 0
if the product i does not have comparative advantage.
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
61
%KXWDQVFXUUHQWFDSDELOLWLHVKRZHYHUVHHP
limited relative to those of other developing
economies in Asia, presenting further
FKDOOHQJHVRISURGXFWGLYHUVLFDWLRQ
BhuLuns unexIoILed oorLunILIes (uIso
shown In Igures z.q und z.qq) ure Iur uwuy
when comured wILh Lhose oI oLher counLrIes.
BhuLuns neurby roducLs ure even IurLher uwuy
Irom Lhe Iur uwuy roducLs oI uII Lhe comuruLor
Legend: orange circles = top 20 products in terms of PRODY of each density group
black circles = Bhutans target products for diversication
dark gray circles = products with PRODY higher than EXPY
light gray circles = products with PRODY lower than EXPY
Notes: Distance is measured as the log of the inverse of density (discussed further below). The three distance groups created are (1) the nearby group
with distance less than 0.75 standard deviation below the average of all unexploited products; (2) the middle group with distance between 0.75
standard deviations around the average; and (3) the far away group with distance at least 0.75 standard deviation above the average. The grey circles
represent the unexploited opportunities, i.e., products that are currently not exported with revealed comparative advantage. Among the unexploited
products, only those with a level of sophistication (PRODY) higher than that of Bhutans export basket (EXPY) (dark gray circles) were considered for
selection as target products (black circles) for diversication.
Density for a product i is dened as the sum of proximities between product i and all products that are exported with comparative advantage, scaled
by the sum of all proximities leading to product i (Path i): By denition, density ranges between 0 and 1. The closer the density of a product is to 1, the
nearer the product is to the countrys current export basket.
Density
i
=
j (comparative advantage)
i j
i j
j (all)
Where is equal to proximity and Y is equal to path.
Proximity is equal to
i j
= mi n { P( x
i
= 1| x
j
= 1) , P( x
j
= 1| x
i
= 1) } ,
Where xi = 1 implies that, for every country C and commodity i, revealed comparative advantage (RCA
ci
) > 1.
Source: Estimates based on export database from UNComtrade, accessed September 2012.
Figure 2.43. Top 20 Products with the Highest Level of Sophistication, 2009 (selected by PRODY)
2.0
2.816> mean: 2.999
Middle Nearby Far Away
(mean-75%SD)
<3.182
(mean+75%SD)
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
0
20,000
30,000
10,000
40,000
P
R
O
D
Y
(
2
0
0
5
$
)
Distance
EXPY = 8,534
62
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
counLrIes(exceLLheMuIdIves),usshownInIgure
z.q.Thus,BhuLunsroducLIvecuubIIILIesureLoo
IImILedIorILLoenLerInLonewneurbyroducLsund
ure even more IImILed Ior exorLIng Lhe roducLs
LhuLureIuruwuy.ThIsruIsesuquesLIonubouLhow
much BhuLun cun benehL Irom Lhe seL oI unexIoILed
roducLs. An unswer Is LhuL IL wouId be mosL eIhcIenL
IorBhuLunLoIocusonIyonLheneurbyroducLs
Lhe mosL sohIsLIcuLed ones or Lhe ones wILh Lhe
mosL oLenLIuI Ior sIIIovers (I.e., hIgh sLruLegIc
vuIue)orsomecombInuLIonLhereoI.
2.4. Conclusion
TheBhuLuneseeconomyIsexecLedLoconLInue
ILs hIgh growLh uLh buL more needs Lo be done Lo
susLuInLhIshIghgrowLh.DIugnosIsoIkeyusecLsoI
Lhe economy hus IdenLIhed hve crILIcuI consLruInLs
LhuL cun deruII ILs growLh-Iuck oI uccess Lo hnunce,
Iow educuLIon ouLcome, InudequuLe LrunsorL
neLwork, nurrow hscuI suce, und resence oI
murkeLIuIIures(TubIez.11).
Legend: orange circles = top 20 products in terms of PRODY of each density group
black circles = Bhutans target products for diversication
dark gray circles = products with PRODY higher than EXPY
light gray circles = products with PRODY lower than EXPY
Notes: Distance is measured as the log of inverse of density. The three distance groups created are (1) the nearby group with distance less than 0.75
standard deviation below the average of all unexploited products, (2) the middle group with distance between 0.75 standard deviations around
the average, and (3) the far away group with distance at least 0.75 standard deviation above the average. The gray circles represent the unexploited
opportunities, i.e., products that are currently not exported with revealed comparative advantage. Among the unexploited products, only those with a
level of sophistication (PRODY) higher than that of Bhutans export basket (EXPY) (dark gray circles) were considered for selection as target products (black
circles) for diversication.
Source: Estimates based on export database from UNComtrade, accessed September 2012.
Figure 2.44. Top 20 Products with the Highest Spillover Eect, 2009 (selected by strategic value)
2.0
2.816> mean: 2.999
Middle Nearby Far Away
(mean-75%SD)
<3.182
(mean+75%SD)
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
0
20,000
30,000
10,000
40,000
P
R
O
D
Y
(
2
0
0
5
$
)
Distance
EXPY = 8,534
Critical Constraints to Bhutans Growth
63
Notes: Distance is measured as the log of the inverse of density. Orange lines represent the level of EXPY for Bhutan and grey lines for comparator countries.
Orange circles represent Bhutans unexploited products and grey circles represent comparator countries.
Source: Estimates based on datasets from UN Comtrade, accessed January 2013.
Figure 2.45. Unexploited Opportunities, 2009
Bhutan and Peoples Republic of China
Bhutan and Maldives
P
R
O
D
Y
(
2
0
0
5
$
)
Bhutan and Pakistan
Distance
Bhutan and India
Bhutan and Nepal
Bhutan and Sri Lanka
40,000
20,000
30,000
10,000
0
40,000
20,000
30,000
10,000
0
40,000
20,000
30,000
10,000
0
64
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
Table 2.11. Summary of Diagnosis of Constraints to Growth
Broad
Determinants
of Growth
Factors Aecting
Determinants
of Growth
Why is the Factor a Constraint to
Growth?
Critical Constraint or
Not?
Likely to
Impact
Inclusiveness?
Cost of Finance Access to nance % High real domestic interest rate
(because of low savings and limited
competition)
% Few alternative nancing options
(banks are the chief source)
% Negligible access to international
nance
% Inecient and ineective domestic
nancial intermediation
Critical (particularly for
micro, small, and
medium enterprises and
rural agriculture lending)
9
Social Returns
to Investments
Human capital % Low quality of education
% Labor force lacks adequate
education and necessary skills
% Shortage of high-level skills and
presence of skills gap.
Critical
9
9
9
Transport network % Mountainous geography
% Inadequate transport facilities
% Limited reach of the domestic
transport system
% Limited access to regional and
global markets
% Delays at ports
% Ineciencies at land border
cros-sings
Critical (particularly for
rural areas)
9
9
9
9
Electricity % Shortage of power during dry
winter months
Not critical
Telecommunications % Minimal competition Not critical
Irrigation % Limited funds for further develop-
ment
Not critical
Appropriability
of Returns to
Investments
Macroeconomic
risks
% Deteriorating scal balance
% Ination levels manageable but
continue to be a concern
% Volatile current account balance
% Increasing public debt
% High government expenditure
relative to gross domestic product
Critical (in the medium to
long term)
9
Microeconomic risks % Increasing cases of corruption
% Decline in regulatory quality
% High tax rates
Not critical
Market failures % Low technological content in
industry and lack of innovation
% Lack of diversity in the export
basket, limiting technical
transferability of production
capabilities
Critical
Critical Constraints to Reducing Poverty and Inequality
65
Chapter 3
Critical Constraints to Reducing
Poverty and Inequality
RegurdIngLhenuLureoIemIoymenL,jusLover
;o% oI Lhe workIorce consIsLs oI own-uccounL und
IumIIyworkers(TubIe.1).ThIsercenLugechunged
very IILLIe durIng Lhe 6 yeurs Lo zo1z. The Iuck oI
chunge suggesLs LhuL growLh hus hud IILLIe ImucL
recenLIy In creuLIng more sLubIe und roducLIve
emIoymenL. The vusL mujorILy oI own-uccounL
und IumIIy emIoymenL Is InIormuI, uILhough
some own-uccounL workers ure roIessIonuIs. The
remuInIng o% oI Lhe workIorce consIsLs mosLIy
oI uId workers. They LyIcuIIy huve more reguIur
Income, beLLer socIuI roLecLIon, und Imroved
rosecLs Ior cureer deveIomenL. A Iook uL Lhe
rohIe oI occuuLIons IndIcuLes mIxed Lrends In job
quuIILy. The shure oI roIessIonuI, LechnIcuI, und
reIuLedworkersIncreusedIrom;.q%Loq.6%InLhe
6yeursLozo1z,uILhoughILwushIgheruL1z.o%In
zo11.DurIngLhesumeerIod,LheshureoIIow-IeveI
servIcejobsIncreusedIrom6.%Loq.1%,uILhough
IL IeII Lo jusL .;% In zo11. GeneruIIy, Lhe buIk oI
occuuLIons ure In IurmIng und oLher rImury
occuuLIons. Igure .6 IndIcuLes LhuL ubouL 18%
oILoLuIemIoymenLIswILhLhegovernmenL,ubIIc
cororuLIons,orurmedIorces,undubouLzz%IsIn
LherIvuLenonIurmsecLor.
3
About 7.3% of people with higher secondary education and 6.1%
of those with tertiary education were unemployed in 2012.
4
Districts that include urban centers (Gasa, Paro, Punakha, and
Thimphu) experienced a minimum 6% net intake of migrants
during 20002005 (Oce of the Census Commissioner 2006).
Thus, uccess Lo emIoymenL oorLunILIes
vurIes ucross IocuLIon und educuLIonuI uLLuInmenL,
us weII us by gender (Igures .;.q).
UnemIoymenL Is hIgh In urbun ureus, where IL
uIIecLsLheeducuLedyouLhdIsroorLIonuLeIy.ThIs
reecLs boLh u skIIIs und moLIvuLIon mIsmuLch und u
weuILhIucLor(munyeducuLedyouLhcunuIIordLobe
unemIoyed).nruruIureus,unemIoymenLIsIow
buL Lhe degree oI underemIoymenL und InIormuI
work (own-uccounL und IumIIy work) Is hIgher.
UneducuLedeoIeuremoreIIkeIyLobeInIormuIIy
emIoyed Lhun educuLed eoIe. Women ure
urLIcuIurIy dIsudvunLuged, IucIng hIgher IeveIs oI
unemIoymenL,underemIoymenL,undInIormuIILy
Lhunmen.
Sources: Labour Force Survey reports (MLHR various years).
Figure 3.4. Unemployment Rate in Urban
and Rural Areas (%)
2001 2003 2004 2006 2010 2011 2009 2012
0
5
6
3
2
1
4
8
7
Urban Rural Bhutan
Source: Labour Force Survey report (MLHR 2012).
Figure 3.5. Distribution of Unemployed People,
by Education Level, 2012 (%)
No schooling Primary
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 90 80 100
Rural
All areas
Urban
Secondary
Higher secondary Tertiary
Critical Constraints to Reducing Poverty and Inequality
69
Table 3.1. Characteristics of Employed People (%)
2006 2011 2012
Sector of Employment
Agriculture 62.8 60.2 62.4
Industry 7.6 9.2 8.5
Services 29.6 30.6 29.1
Nature of Employment
Agriculture: Own-account
workers
29.9 19.5
Agriculture: Family workers 25.8 39.5
Nonagriculture: Own-account
workers
11.9 10.2
Nonagriculture: Family workers 3.3 1.7
Total own-account and
family workers
70.9 70.9
Regular paid employees 23.4 24.0 23.8
Casual paid employees 5.8 4.2 3.6
Piece/contract paid workers 0.6 1.6
Employer 0.2 0.2 0.1
Occupation
Professional, technical,
and related workers
7.9 12.0 9.6
Administrative, executive,
and managerial
1.0 1.4 1.9
Clerical 2.6 2.2 1.8
Sales 9.2 9.8 8.3
Farmers, shers, hunters,
loggers, and related workers
60.6 59.1 61.9
Craftspeople, production-
process workers
8.7 9.6 5.2
Service workers
a
6.3 3.7 9.1
Armed forces 3.8 2.2 2.1
Sex
Male 56.7 52.6 49.0
Female 43.3 47.4 51.0
Age
Youth (age 1524) 19.6 15.5 13.5
Prime adult (age 2544) 51.3 55.1 53.8
Mature adult (4564) 29.1 29.3 32.7
Educational Attainment
No schooling 69.2 66.3 65.6
Primary 12.4 10.5 10.6
Lower secondary 13.4 13.5 13.7
Higher secondary 3.1 5.7 5.7
Tertiary 1.9 3.9 4.4
= not available.
a
Most service workers are employed in menial jobs e.g., as laborers in mining,
construction, and personal and protective services.
Sources: Labour Force Survey reports (MLHR various years).
INGO = international nongovernment organization, NGO = non-
government organization.
Source: Labour Force Survey Report 2012 (MLHR various years).
Figure 3.6. Employment by Type of Enterprise,
2012 (%)
Government Public operation Private operation
Armed forces
NGO/INGO
Private business Agri farming
Source: Calculations based on the Labour Force Survey Report 2012
(MLHR various years).
Figure 3.7. Informal Employment and
Underemployment Rate, by Area, Gender, and
Education Level, 2012 (%)
Underemployment Informal employment
B
h
u
t
a
n
U
r
b
a
n
R
u
r
a
l
Area Sex Educational attainment
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
a
l
e
N
o
s
c
h
o
o
l
i
n
g
P
r
i
m
a
r
y
S
e
c
o
n
d
a
r
y
T
e
r
t
i
a
r
y
H
i
g
h
e
r
s
e
c
o
n
d
a
r
y
0
40
20
60
80
100
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
70
3.3. Human Capabilities
UnequuI uccess Lo oorLunILIes muy resuIL
when cerLuIn segmenLs oI Lhe ouIuLIon huve
weuker humun cuubIIILIes Lhun oLhers, urLIy due
LounequuIuccessLoeducuLIonundheuILhservIces.
AnoLher IucLor Is udverse heuILh condILIons, whIch
muy be exucerbuLed by unequuI uccess Lo socIuI
servIcessuchuscIeunwuLerundsunILuLIon.
3.3.1. Education
EducuLIon Is un ImorLunL conLrIbuLor Lo
humuncuubIIILIes,rovIdIngskIIIsneededLouccess
roducLIve emIoymenL und Imrove househoId
Income und weIIure. ormuI educuLIon In BhuLun
wus onIy InLroduced uL Lhe sLurL oI Lhe IrsL Ive
Yeur PIun, In Lhe eurIy 1q6os. GIven ILs reIuLIveIy
youngeducuLIonsysLem,LhuLLhegovernmenLshus
Source: Calculations based on the Labour Force Survey Report 2012 (MLHR various years)
Figure 3.8. Unemployment Rate, by Area, Region, Gender, Age, and Education Level, 2012 (%)
0
2
4
6
8
B
h
u
t
a
n
U
r
b
a
n
R
u
r
a
l
W
e
s
t
e
r
n
C
e
n
t
r
a
l
E
a
s
t
e
r
n
1
5
-
2
4
2
5
-
4
4
4
5
-
6
4
6
5
+
Area Region Sex Age group Educational attainment
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
a
l
e
N
o
s
c
h
o
o
l
i
n
g
P
r
i
m
a
r
y
S
e
c
o
n
d
a
r
y
T
e
r
t
i
a
r
y
H
i
g
h
e
r
s
e
c
o
n
d
a
r
y
Notes: A person is considered to have work or be employed if for at least 1 hour in the 7 days prior to the survey, the person either (1) farmed, shed,
hunted, gathered fruits, etc.; (2) worked for money, prot, or business; or (3) did unpaid work at a friends or relatives enterprise or farm. People who are
not employed but are actively looking for a job or tried to start a new business or were available for work are considered as unemployed. People available
for work included those who said they were available if they were oered work but believed there was no work available, and those who were not looking
for work cited the following among their reasons: temporary illness, they perform seasonal work, no appropriate work available, waiting for results of
application for employment, and waiting to be recalled to previous work. All others who did not work because of house/family duties, studying, age (young
or old) or retirement status, permanent disability, and other reasons are treated as unavailable for work, and therefore part of the economically inactive
population.
Sources: Estimates based on the Bhutan Living Standards Surveys (NSB 2007; ADB and NSB 2013).
Figure 3.9. Unemployment, Underemployment, and Informal Employment Rate, by District (%)
0
40
20
60
80
100
C
h
h
u
k
h
a
G
a
s
a
H
a
a
P
a
r
o
P
u
n
a
k
h
a
B
u
m
t
h
a
n
g
D
a
g
a
n
a
S
a
r
p
a
n
g
T
r
o
n
g
s
a
Western region Central region Eastern region
S
a
m
t
s
e
T
h
i
m
p
h
u
T
s
i
r
a
n
g
W
a
n
g
d
u
e
P
h
o
d
r
a
n
g
Z
h
e
m
g
a
n
g
M
o
n
g
a
r
P
e
m
a
g
a
t
s
h
e
l
S
a
m
d
r
u
p
J
o
n
g
k
h
a
r
T
r
a
s
h
i
g
a
n
g
T
r
a
s
h
i
y
a
n
g
t
s
e
L
h
u
e
n
t
s
e
Underemployment, 2007 Informal employment, 2012 Unemployment, 2012
Critical Constraints to Reducing Poverty and Inequality
71
ensured uccess Lo busIc educuLIon Is noLeworLhy.
NeverLheIess,remuInInggushuveLobeuddressed
Lo uchIeve unIversuI uccess, urLIcuIurIy uL Lhe
seconduryundLerLIuryIeveIs.
The educuLIon IeveI oI BhuLuns Iubor Iorce
remuIns Iow, urLIcuIurIy umong eoIe resIdIng
In ruruI ureus und Lhe eusLern regIon, und umong
womenundLheoor.TheImorLunceoIeducuLIon
Is underIIned by Lhe resuILs Irom Lhe regressIon
unuIysIs oI Lhe deLermInunLs oI overLy dIscussed
In Lhe AendIx Lo LhIs chuLer. Igure .1o
IIIusLruLes Lhe very smuII shure oI Lhe BhuLunese
ouIuLIon LhuL Is educuLed. n zo1z, uImosL ;o%
oI Lhe ouIuLIon uged 1 yeurs und oIder hud noL
receIved uny educuLIon. Moreover, Iess Lhun zo%
were schooIed ubove Lhe rImury IeveI. PeoIe In
ruruIureusundLheeusLernregIon,usweIIuswomen
und househoIds In Iower Income bruckeLs, hud Lhe
hIghesLruLesoInoeducuLIon.
Igure.11emhusIzesLheeducuLIonguInLhe
workIng ouIuLIon by regIon, gender, und Income
grou. ThIs Is meusured by Lhe yeurs oI schooIIng
uLLuIned reIuLIve Lo Lhe yeurs oI busIc educuLIon
euchBhuLuneseshouIdreceIve.
ComIeLIonoIboLh
5
Article 16 of the Constitution of Bhutan states that free education
shall be provided to all children of schooling age up to the tenth
standard (i.e., secondary level).
Source: Estimates based on ADB and NSB (2013).
Figure 3.10. Educational Attainment among People Aged 15 and Over,
by Region and Socioeconomic Group, 2012 (%)
0
40
20
60
80
100
B
h
u
t
a
n
U
r
b
a
n
R
u
r
a
l
W
e
s
t
e
r
n
C
e
n
t
r
a
l
E
a
s
t
e
r
n
P
o
o
r
e
s
t
S
e
c
o
n
d
Area Region Sex Expenditure quintile
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
a
l
e
T
h
i
r
d
F
o
u
r
t
h
R
i
c
h
e
s
t
No education Primary Secondary Higher secondary Tertiary
Note: Highest education attained relative to the compulsory years of schooling.
Source: Estimates based on ADB and NSB (2013).
Figure 3.11. Quality of Labor Supply, by Region and Socioeconomic Group, 2012 (%)
0
20
10
30
40
50
B
h
u
t
a
n
U
r
b
a
n
R
u
r
a
l
W
e
s
t
e
r
n
C
e
n
t
r
a
l
E
a
s
t
e
r
n
P
o
o
r
e
s
t
S
e
c
o
n
d
Area Region Sex Expenditure quintile
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
a
l
e
T
h
i
r
d
F
o
u
r
t
h
R
i
c
h
e
s
t
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
72
und househoId survey duLu subsLunLIuLe LhIs
observuLIon. NeL enroIImenL In busIc educuLIon
;
UgrudIngugrIcuILureroducLIonIromsubsIsLence
Lo commercIuI IurmIng requIres suorL In Lhe
IormoIIurmInuLs.However,LhegovernmenLhus
decreused Lhe dIsLrIbuLIon oI IerLIIIzers und seeds
In Lhe IusL yeurs (TubIe q.z).
1
Heuvy reIIunce on
oIder vurIeLIes oI seeds reduces IunL vIgor und
IImILs uccess Lo new und hIgher oLenLIuI vurIeLIes.
The Druk Seed CororuLIon (reIuced by Lhe
NuLIonuI Seed CororuLIon In zo1o) hud IImILed
cuucILy Ior seed muILIIIcuLIon und condILIonIng,
conLrIbuLIng Lo Lhe decIInIng dIsLrIbuLIon oI
Imroved vurIeLIes durIng zoozooq. However,
Lhe demund Ior IunL roLecLIon chemIcuIs Is
growIng becuuse oI Lhe reIuLIveIy Iow cosL, euse oI
LrunsorL,undhIghImucL,urLIcuIurIyIorIruILund
vegeLubIeroducLIon.
The Iow IeveI oI LechnoIogy In Lhe secLor Is
reecLed In Lhe Iow mechunIzuLIon IeveI. n Lhe hrsL
huII oI Lhe TenLh YP, Lhe governmenL suIIed
Lo Lhe dIsLrIcLs u LoLuI oI ,z unILs oI muchInery,
IncIudIng 1zz ower LIIIers und 188 rIce mIIIs. or
zodIsLrIcLs,LhegovernmenLrovIded1qoeruLIons
und muInLenunce LruInIng sessIons, InsLuIIed 1;8
Iurm muchInes, und reuIred u IurLher 16; Iurm
muchInes. Comured wILh oLher SouLh AsIun
counLrIes, however, BhuLun hus u Iow IeveI oI Iurm
mechunIzuLIon (LogeLher wILh AIghunIsLun und
BungIudesh).
1q
ThIs Is urLIy becuuse Lhe counLrys
Loogruhy humers rovIsIon oI comrehensIve
IurmmechunIzuLIon.
12
The government cites the following reasons for the low level
of crop productivity, particularly in rice: subsistence farming,
shortage of arable land and farm labor, low cropping intensity,
inadequate irrigation, and crop losses to pests and wild animals.
A recent study reports that farmers cite the following top ve
issues: (1) crop losses due to wild animals, (2) crop losses due
to pests and diseases, (3) insucient irrigation supply, (4) labor
shortage, and (5) land shortage (Ministry of Agriculture and Forests
2010. Technology Adoption, Agricultural Productivity and Road
Infrastructure in Bhutan, cited in Christensen 2011).
13
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forests extension system
coordinates and monitors the distribution of seed, fertilizer,
pesticides, and herbicides to farmers.
14
Based on World Bank, WDI Online, accessed January 2012.
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
104
Lo urbun ureus urLIcuIurIy by muIes resuILed In
LheIncreusedreIIunceonwomenLoworkonIurms
(ChrIsLensen zo11). GreuLer reIIunce on u IemuIe
workIorce currIes u rIsk oI Iower roducLIon us
BhuLunsIurmsuseIILLIemechunIzuLIonundrequIre
greuLhysIcuIsLrengLh.
AroxImuLeIy;o%oILhereusonsreorLedIor
Iood shorLuges were dIrecLIy reIuLed Lo Iund beIng
InudequuLeundunroducLIve.AbuIunceneedsLobe
IoundbeLweenLheoIIcyoImuInLuInIng6o%oILhe
IundunderereLuuIIoresLcover(Boxq.)undLhe
oIIcyoIenvIronmenLuIconservuLIon,soLhuLLhese
do noL conIcL wILh roducLIvILy, commercIuIIzuLIon,
und Iood securILy objecLIves. urmIng In BhuLun Is
chuIIengIng us smuII IundhoIdIngs und Lhe rugged
Loogruhy wILh sLee sIoes muke IurmIng Iubor
InLensIve und mechunIzuLIon dIIhcuIL (Tobguy
zoo6). SLIII, some ruruI Iunds ure IeIL uncuILIvuLed
owIngLoLheshorLugeoIIurmIubordueLoruruI-Lo-
urbunmIgruLIon.
AmujorILyoILheIurmersownuIImILedumounL
oI Iund. WhIIe onIy one oI hve ruruI househoIds Is
IundIess, LrudILIonuI Iurms ure usuuIIy very smuII,
rungIngIrom1hu.SevenoI1oruruIhousehoIds
own Iess Lhun z hu. Such Iund dIsLrIbuLIon hInders
Lhe ugrIcuILure secLor Irom LukIng udvunLuge oI
economIes oI scuIe, whIch couId ruIse roducLIon.
ShurecroIng umong Lhe IundIess Iurmers hus
ImededugrIcuILuruIroducLIvILyusshurecroers
huve IILLIe IncenLIve Lo Increuse yIeIds, muxImIze
croIngInLensILy,undInvesLInIundImrovemenLs.
TheuLchydeveIomenLoIroudneLworksund
oLher InIrusLrucLure resLrIcLs uccess Lo Iurm InuLs
und murkeL oorLunILIes. However, IrrIguLIon
deveIomenL shows ImressIve rogress us Lhe
number oI IrrIguLIon sysLems Increused by uImosL
1%Lo1,qq6undLheLoLuIIengLhhusbeenexLended
by1q%Lo,;6z.q;kIIomeLersInJunuuryzo11Irom
June zo1o. YeL, IrrIguLIon remuIns InsuIhcIenL,
coverIng onIy 1% oI Lhe LoLuI Iund ureu. Access Lo
hnunce Is uIso u mujor Issue Ior Lhe secLor II IL Is Lo
LrunsIormIromsubsIsLenceLocommercIuIIurmIng.
4.2. Emerging Growth
Drivers for Bhutan
To dIversIIy Lhe economy whIIe muIn-
LuInIng hIgh ruLes oI growLh, uddILIonuI drIvers oI
growLh LhuL cuILuIIze on BhuLuns comuruLIve
ncreusIng cro Iosses In recenL yeurs huve
been uLLrIbuLed Lo esL uLLucks und dIseuse,
gIobuI wurmIng, erruLIc ruInIuII, wIndsLorms,
droughLs, ushoods, und IundsIIdes. n zo11, un
unrecedenLed dry seII In PemuguLsheI, one oI
BhuLuns ooresL dIsLrIcLs In Lhe eusL, desLroyed
hundreds oI hecLures oI muIze, IeudIng Lo u seed
shorLugeIorLhenexLcrooImuIze(NumgyeIzo11).
WILh BhuLuns oIIcy Lo muInLuIn exLensIve IoresL
cover,ugrIcuILuruIIundsurescuLLeredInLheIoresLs
und Lhus susceLIbIe Lo wIId unImuIs. The BhuLun
NuLIonuI ood SecurILy SLruLegy Puer (zoo)
reorLedLhuLwIIdunImuIsdumuge11%oImuIze,8%
oI wheuL, ;% oI rIce, und 6% oI oLuLo cros every
yeur.
1
DesILeLhIs,IowrIorILyIsgIvenLoreseurch
onmeusuresLhuLwouIdreducecrodumugecuused
bywIIdIIIe,esLs,unddIseuses.essLhun1%oILhe
RNRbudgeLIorLheTenLhYPIsuIIocuLedLoLhese
robIems.ThecurrenLreseurchugendumuyhuveLo
be revIewed Lo sLrengLhen ILs IInk Lo Iurmers reuI
needs(ChrIsLensenzo11).
emuIe urLIcIuLIon In ugrIcuILure hus
Increused,exIuInIngLhesIIghLIncreuseInLheruruI
workIorceIromzoo1Lozo1o.MIgruLIonIromruruI
15
Cited in Duba, Gurung, and Ghimiray (2006).
Table 4.2. Public Supply and Distribution of
Farm Inputs
Input 20052006 20072008 20092010
%
Change
Fertilizer (tons)
Urea 1,610.75 1,399.27 1,219.28 24.3
Suphala 964.85 1,042.23 838.08 13.1
SSP 450.60 602.35 411.55 8.7
MOP 14.66 29.15 9.75 33.5
Butachlor 264.62 266.02 279.79 5.7
Seed (tons)
Cereal and
legumes
107.31 111.04 86.95 19.0
Potato seed 229.70 120.62
Vegetable
seed
7.45 2.86 2.44 67.2
Plant Chemicals (kilograms)
Fungicides 2,515.00 4,100.00 3,423.00 36.1
Herbicides 809.00 5,380.00 3,004.00 271.3
Insecticides 2,521.00 7,734.00 4,875.00 93.4
= not available, MOP = muriate of potash, SSP = single superphosphate.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, cited in Christensen (2011).
Drivers of Inclusive Growth for Bhutan
105
udvunLuge need Lo be IdenLIhed. ThIs reorL uLs
IorLh Lwo emergIng drIvers oI growLh. The hrsL Is
InIormuLIon und communIcuLIons LechnoIogIes
(CT) und Lhe second, cIeuner munuIucLurIng,
In urLIcuIur, Lhrough mIcro, smuII, und medIum
enLerrIses. These Lwo oIIer oorLunILIes LhuL ure
comIemenLuryLoBhuLunsursuILoIIncIusIveund
susLuInubIesocIoeconomIcdeveIomenL.Igureq.
mus Lhe exIsLIng und emergIng drIvers revenue
und job creuLIon oLenLIuI, In uddILIon Lo LheIr
envIronmenLuIImucLs.
As BhuLun mukes sLrIdes In educuLIon, CT
couId ubsorb Lhe IncreusIng number oI gruduuLes.
Box 4.3. Bhutans National Constitution, Article 5
1. Every Bhutanese is a trustee of the Kingdoms natural resources and environment for the benet of the present and
future generations and it is the fundamental duty of every citizen to contribute to the protection of the natural
environment, conservation of the rich biodiversity of Bhutan, and prevention of all forms of ecological degradation
including noise, visual, and physical pollution through the adoption and support of environment friendly practices
and policies.
2. The Royal Government shall:
(a) Protect, conserve, and improve the pristine environment and safeguard the biodiversity of the country;
(b) Prevent pollution and ecological degradation;
(c) Secure ecologically balanced sustainable development while promoting justiable economic and social
development; and
(d) Ensure a safe and healthy environment.
3. The Government shall ensure that, in order to conserve the countrys natural resources and to prevent degradation of
the ecosystem, a minimum of sixty percent of Bhutans total land shall be maintained under forest cover for all time.
4. Parliament may enact environmental legislation to ensure sustainable use of natural resources and maintain
intergenerational equity and rearm the sovereign rights of the State over its own biological resources.
5. Parliament may, by law, declare any part of the country to be a National Park, Wildlife Reserve, Nature Reserve,
Protected Forest, Biosphere Reserve, Critical Watershed, and such other categories meriting protection.
Sources: Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan. http://oag.gov.bt/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Constitution _of_Bhutan.pdf; http://www.wipo.int/wipolex/
en/text.jsp?le_id=167955
ICT = information and communications technology.
Note: Size of the bubble shows the potential for job creation. Manufacturing is shown in orange bubbles and nonmanufacturing in white bubbles.
Source: Based on material provided by a JICA study team.
Figure 4.3. Mapping of Growth Drivers
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
p
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
Domestic market
Regional market
Breakeven for:
Global market
Clean (less damaging to the environment)
Base
metal
Mineral
Tourism
Hydropower
Bio
medical
ICT
parts
Hydro
related
parts
Chemical
Finance
Other
Services
(ICT, education,
health)
Handicraft
Crop
Agro
product
Paper
Bhutan: Critical Development Constraints
106
ConcurrenLIy,CTIsumeunsLomukegrowLhmore
IncIusIve us IL exLends InIormuLIon und uccess Lo
ruruIureus.AndcIeunermunuIucLurIng,whIchoILen
InvoIves mIcro, smuII, und medIum enLerrIses,
uIsoheIswILhruruIdeveIomenLusILcreuLesjobs
und uses IndIgenous roducLs. The ImucL oI CT
und cIeun munuIucLurIng on Lhe envIronmenL Is
reIuLIveIy IImILed, whIch Is weII suILed Lo BhuLuns
ursuILoIenvIronmenLuIundcuILuruIreservuLIon.
4.2.1. Information and
Communications Technology
TheCTDeveIomenLndexIsoneoILhemosL
common und InLernuLIonuIIy recognIzed Indexes
used Lo comure overuII CT secLor erIormunce
umong counLrIes. The Index runks BhuLun 11q
Lh
oI 1z counLrIescuLegorIzed us u Iow CT
DeveIomenLndexcounLry.WILhInSouLhAsIu,IL
IsrunkedIourLhoIsevencounLrIes.TheuIIcuLIon
oICTreducesLheconsLruInLsoILImeundsuceIn
un economy und conLrIbuLes Lo economIc growLh.
ThereIore,IncreusedCTuseInBhuLunIsexecLed
Lo conLrIbuLe Lo growLh In ugrIcuILure, IndusLry,
und servIces, us weII us Lo Imrove Lhe eIhcIency oI
LrunsorL,IncreuseuccessLocuILuI,undsLrengLhen
LheuIIcuLIonoIknowIedge.
16
VoIce und duLu communIcuLIons servIces ure
currenLIyLhemosLcommonCTservIcesInBhuLun.
They ure rovIded by Lwo comunIes, Lhe sLuLe-
ownedBhuLunTeIecomundrIvuLeIyownedTushI
CeII. The monooIy oI BhuLun TeIecom ended
In zoo; und Lhe ensuIng duooIy yIeIded ruId
growLhInmobIIeLeIehonyservIcesunddecreuses
In rIces.
1;
CurrenLIy, Lhe LeIecom servIces ure
mukIng sIgnIhcunL conLrIbuLIons Lo Lhe economy.
The LeIecom servIce rovIders emIoy ;; eoIe
dIrecLIyundubouLunoLherqooIndIrecLIy.TeIecom
servIces ure uIso beIng exorLed In Lhe Iorm oI
roumIng servIces Lo IoreIgn oeruLors whose
cusLomers vIsIL BhuLun. WILh chunges In Lhe
16
The ICT sector in Bhutan includes manufacturing and services
industries whose products capture, transmit, or display data and
information electronically. The sector includes related activities of
manufacturing; the wholesale and retail trade; communications;
business services (such as call centers, software development,
website development and hosting, multimedia, information
technology [IT] consulting, and disaster recovery). Information
technology training is excluded from the ICT sector denition
(Samarajiva 2012).
17
A 7-year exclusivity period began with the licensing of Tashi Cell
in 2007.
wuy servIces Ior Lhe LhIrd generuLIon oI mobIIe
LechnoIogy ure rovIded Lo domesLIc und roumIng
cusLomers,LeIecomrevenuesmuyIncreuse.
SIgnIhcunL new economIc und emIoymenL
oorLunILIescouIdbecreuLedIILheCTsubsecLor
deveIoed beyond Lhe suIy oI convenLIonuI
LeIecom servIces. The Lwo currenL oeruLors
BhuLun TeIecom und TushI CeIIcun exund LheIr
ucLIvILIes Lo rovIde more broudbund connecLIvILy
und more-Lhun-voIce servIces LhuL cusLomers
cun use dIrecLIy Irom LheIr hones. MobIIe money
servIcIng Is Lhe mosL romInenL domesLIc servIce
und hus Lhe greuLesL oLenLIuI Ior new growLh.
nsLunLuneous LrunsmIssIon cuubIIILy Is necessury
IorservIcessuchusduLucenLers(IncIudIngdIsusLer
recovery servIces), busIness rocess ouLsourcIng
(BPO), und knowIedge rocess ouLsourcIng
(KPO), und mosL Iorms oI soILwure roducLIon.
These ure hIghIy deendenL on Lhe uvuIIubIIILy oI
LeIecommunIcuLIons connecLIvILy, Lhe reIIubIIILy oI
owersuIy,undLhequuIILyoILheworkIorce.
undIockedBhuLuncurrenLIyurchusesLrunsIL
servIces, buL new deveIomenLs In InLernuLIonuI
connecLIvILy suggesL LhuL Lhe counLry couId be
u rovIder. Due Lo IncreusIng concerns over Lhe
unreIIubIIILy oI underseu cubIes connecLIng AsIu
Lo Euroe und NorLh AmerIcu, u reIIubIe buck-u
cubIeconnecLIonIsnecessury.BecuuseconsIderubIe
oIILIcuI und engIneerIng chuIIenges huve been
overcome In IuyIng hundreds oI kIIomeLers oI
cubIe,IncIudInguerIuIcubIe,ucrossLheHImuIuyus,
rosecLsIorLerresLrIuIcubIebeLweenndIuundLhe
PeoIesReubIIcoIChInuureLhereIoreromIsIng.
ThIsresenLsunoorLunILyIorBhuLunbecuuseoI
ILsoIILIcuIsLubIIILycomuredLooLherureuswILhIn
LheregIon.
DuLu cenLers huve Lhe mosL rIgorous
requIremenLs In Lerms oI InsLunLuneous, Iurge-
voIume, und reIIubIe eIecLronIc connecLIvILy und
eIecLrIcILy;LheymusLnoLbesubjecLLoowerouLuges
or ucLuuLIons. They consume Iurge umounLs oI
owerIorcomuLIngundgeneruLeIurgeumounLsoI
heuLLhuLrequIreexLensIveuseoIuIrcondILIonIng.
18
nusunoIdecudes,BhuLunhusundergone
consIderubIe LrunsIormuLIon, Irom u
usLoruI und subsIsLence-IeveI economy,
Lo u Iow mIddIe-Income counLry. JudIcIous
mucro munugemenL und uLIIIzuLIon oI
ubundunL hydro resources huve roeIIed Lhe
counLrysgrowLh.
SusLuIned growLh hus Ied Lo sIgnIhcunL
rogressInoverLyreducLIonundhusenhuncedLhe
ouIuLIons humun deveIomenL. urLhermore,
LheudoLIonoIuconsLILuLIonundLheInLroducLIon
oI u urIIumenLury democrucy In zoo8 murked
u successIuI socIooIILIcuI LrunsILIon. A common
vIsIonoIuchIevIngugreenundseII-reIIunLeconomy
susLuIned by un T-enubIed knowIedge socIeLy
und guIded by Lhe hIIosohy oI Gross NuLIonuI
HuIness bInds u sLubIe und urLIcIuLory oIILy
(GNHCzo1o).
ToIurLherILsremurkubIegrowLhundsuccessIuI
overLy reducLIon, BhuLun sLIII Iuces consIderubIe
deveIomenL chuIIenges LhuL Lhe governmenL
muy wIsh Lo consIder when reurIng ILs EIevenLh
Ive Yeur PIun (YP). Among Lhe mosL erLInenL
chuIIengesureeconomIcgrowLhLhuLIshIngedonu
nurrow buse, u noL urLIcuIurIy dIversIhed economy,
IImILed roducLIve economIc ucLIvILIes ouLsIde Lhe
hydroower secLor, deendence on exLernuI uId
ow, reIuLIveIy hIgh Income InequuIILy, und Iuck
oI guInIuI emIoymenL Ior un IncreusIng number
oIyouLhs.
CreuLIng u LrunsurenL und conducIve
envIronmenL Ior busIness und InvesLmenL Is u
key Lo uchIevIng broud-bused, susLuInubIe, und
IncIusIve growLh. ThIs wIII requIre deuIIng wILh
crILIcuI consLruInLs Lo rIvuLe secLor deveIomenL.
GrowLh In rIvuLe InvesLmenLs In Lurn cun Ieud Lo
job creuLIon LhuL Is beyond Lhe hydroower secLor,
drIvIngeconomIcgrowLh.AndbeLLerLurgeLedsocIuI
exendILurewIIIbeuLLhecoreoIsLruLegIesLomuke
Lhe benehLs oI growLh more IncIusIve.
5.1. Critical Constraints
to Inclusive Growth
The sLudy used u dIugnosLIcs urouch Lo
IdenLIIy Lhe mosL crILIcuI consLruInLs Lo economIc
growLh und Lo reducLIon oI overLy und Income
InequuIILy In BhuLun. OvercomIng Lhe consLruInLs
wIII ush Lhe economy onLo u hIgher und more
susLuInubIe growLh uLh, und resuIL In wIder und
more equILubIe uccess Lo oorLunILIes und benehLs
generuLed by u growIng economy. The crILIcuI
consLruInLsLoIncIusIvegrowLhure
(1) nurrow hscuI suce;
(z) InudequuLe und oor quuIILy InIrusLruc-
Lure;
() IImILed und unequuI uccess Lo quuIILy
educuLIon (urLIcuIurIy Lo secondury,
LerLIury, und vocuLIonuI educuLIon), und
IubormurkeLmIsmuLch;
(q) Iuck oI uccess Lo hnunce by mIcro, smuII,
undmedIumenLerrIses(MSMEs);und
() resenceoImurkeLIuIIures.
Policy Recommendations
113
n uddILIon, Lhe sLudy IdenLIhed new drIvers
oI growLh LhuL couId muke IL more broud-bused
und IncIusIve. WhIIe Lhe currenL growLh engInes,
IncIudIng hydroower, LourIsm, und ugrIcuILure,
couId Imrove roducLIvILy und hence IurLher
ucceIeruLe BhuLuns economIc growLh, deveIoIng
new drIvers wouId oIIer chunces Lo uchIeve more
buIunced, susLuInubIe, und IncIusIve growLh.
Two ossIbIe new drIvers IncIude InIormuLIon
und communIcuLIons LechnoIogy (CT) und cIeun
munuIucLurIng,undremovIngconsLruInLsLorIvuLe
InvesLmenLs couId be crILIcuI Ior romoLIng Lhese
newdrIvers.
5.2. Policy Recommendations
on Critical Constraints to Growth
5.2.1. Creating a Comfortable Fiscal Space
The GovernmenL oI BhuLun udoLed Lhe
BudgeL PoIIcy und IscuI rumework SLuLemenL by
LhePubIIcInunceAcL,whIchwusussedInzoo;Lo
romoLe rudenL mucroeconomIc munugemenL Lo
beLLer coe wILh voIuLIIe governmenL revenue und
exendILure. n reurIng Lhe budgeL Ior hscuI yeur
(Y) zo1zJ1, Lhe governmenL IoIIowed rudenL
budgeLury guIdeIInes, IncIudIng exendILure
ruLIonuIIzuLIon meusures, susLuInubIe hscuI buIunce,
undoLhermeusures(MInIsLryoIInuncezo1z).The
Irumework envIsIons movIng Lo muILIyeur roIIIng
budgeLs und uchIevIng Iong-Lerm hscuI oIIcy
gouIsLoensureconLInuedmucroeconomIcsLubIIILy
InBhuLun.
As Lhe governmenL rIorILIzes cuILuI
exendILureLoexundInIrusLrucLureundrovIsIon
oI socIuI servIces, consIderuLIon Is due Lo Lhe
quesLIons ruIsed regurdIng wheLher Lhe currenL
sLrucLure oI ubIIc hnunce cun suorL Lhe counLry`s
medIum- Lo Iong-Lerm hscuI susLuInubIIILy. The
overuII hscuI osILIon hus been generuIIy sound sInce
zoo;.BuLLhecounLrysLoLuIubIIcdebLIsexecLed
Lo rIse under mosL scenurIos shown by sensILIvILy
unuIysIs.WILhInLhenexL1oyeurs,LhegovernmenL
envIsuges consLrucLIng us muny us 1o hydroower
rojecLs, buIIdIng over z,ooo kIIomeLers oI rouds,
rovIdIng eIecLrIcILy Ior Lhe enLIre ouIuLIon,
und IncreusIng sendIng Ior Lhe socIuI secLor.
The TenLh YP uIso resenLs Lhe governmenLs
uggressIve ubIIc rogrums, IncIudIng Lhe Iun
Lo ruLcheL u InvesLmenLs In heuILh, educuLIon,
und generuI InIrusLrucLure; Lhe esLubIIshmenL oI
InsLILuLIonsLosuorLLhenewdemocruLIcsysLem;
und decenLruIIzuLIon. TogeLher wILh Increused
debLservIcIng,Lheserogrumshuvebecomemujor
budgeLILemsIorLheYPImIemenLuLIon.
n BhuLun, governmenL sendIng IInked Lo
hydroower deveIomenL hus been u muIn drIver
oI growLh. ndeed, u mujorILy oI Lhe ubIIc debL
Is due Lo hydroower deveIomenL. The reLurns
Irom Lhe hydroower rojecLs huve heIed boosL
domesLIc revenue, whIch cun now IuIIy cover Lhe
currenL exendILure. NeverLheIess, Lhe currenL
budgeL sLrucLure reIIes subsLunLIuIIy on conLInued
InLernuLIonuI uId ows,
1
whIchmuynoLbesusLuIned
uLLhecurrenLhIghIeveIs.
z
Assuch,ILIsImeruLIve
IorLhegovernmenLLoeIIecLIveIymobIIIzedomesLIc
resources.nLhemedIumLerm,exundIngrevenue
undrIorILIzIngsendIngurenecessuryLoIImILLhe
ubIIcdebLbuIIdu.
The governmenL recognIzes LhuL IL hus Lo
ucceIeruLe Lhe budgeLury und Lux reIorm eIIorLs In
order Lo creuLe u comIorLubIe hscuI suce Ior IuLure
deveIomenL sendIng.