STAT 2507

Solution-Assignment # 5

Winter 2010

Question 1. [Hypothesis testing for when is known] Imagine choosing n = 16 women at random from a large population and measuring their heights. Assume that the heights of the women in this population are normal with = 64 inches and = 4 inches. Suppose you then test the null hypothesis H0 : = 64 versus the alternative that Ha : = 64, using = 0.10. Assume is known. Simulate the results of doing this test 20 times as follows: random 16 c1-c20; normal 64 4. ztest 64 4 c1-c20 (a) [1] In how many tests did you reject H0 . That is, how many times did you make an incorrect decision? 2 (0 to 7 is okay). (b) [1] Are the p-values all the same for the 20 tests? N0. (c) [2] Suppose you used = .05 instead of = 0.10. Does this change any of your decisions to reject or not? Yes. Should it in some cases?Yes, fewer rejections of H0 . (d) [1] Now assume that the population actually has a mean of = 63, instead of 64, and carry out the above 20 times, (thus, use the above minitab commands with normal 64 4 changed to normal 63 4). Once again, using = 0.10 and assuming is known, in how many tests did you reject H0 (Note that H0 and Ha are still as before)? 7. (3 to 12 is okay) Note re part(d): Unlike part (a), rejecting H0 is in fact the correct decision here. Question 2. [Hypothesis testing for when is NOT known] Repeat Question 3, using ttest instead of ztest, and answer parts (a), (b), and (c) again. (Thus ztest 64 4 c1-c20 changes to ttest 64 c1-c20) (a) [1] In how many tests did you reject H0 . That is, how many times did you make an incorrect decision? 2 (0 to 6 is okay). (b) [1] Are the p-values all the same for the 20 tests? No. (c) [2] Suppose you used = .05 instead of = 0.10. Does this change any of your decisions to reject or not? Yes. Should it in some cases?Yes, fewer rejections of H0 .

For each of the following questions you MUST show your work clearly: Q1. [3] Suppose that for Question 1 (minitab), one was asked to carry out 1000 simulations (instead of 20). Let X be the answer to part 1(a) based on these 1000 simulations. Use a suitable approximation to compute the probability P (X 90). Solution: Use normal approximation to binomial, where n = 1000, p = 0.1 P (X 90) = P 90.5 np X np npq npq =P X 100 90.5 100 90 90 P (Z 1.001) 0.1584

Q2. [4] In investigating which of two presentations of subject matter to use in a computerprogrammed course, an experimenter randomly chose two groups of 18 students each, and assigned one group to receive presentation I and the second to receive presentation II. A short quiz on the presentation was given to each group and their grades recorded. Do the following data indicate that the dierence in the mean quiz scores (hence dierence in eectiveness of presentation) exists for the two methods? Find the approximate p-value, interpret your results and state your assumptions.( = 0.05) x 81.7 77.2 s2 23.2 19.8

Presentation I Presentation II

Solution: H0 : 1 2 = 0; Ha : 1 2 = 0; test statistic: t= 1 X 2 D0 X

1 + s2 ( n 1 1 ) n2

With = 0.05 and n1 + n2 2 = 34 degree of freedom, reject H0 if |t| > t0.025 > 1.96. Calculate s2 =
2 (n1 1)s2 17(23.2) + 17(19.8) 1 + (n2 1)s2 = = 21.5 n1 + n2 2 34

t=

81.7 77.2
2 ) 21.5( 18

= 2.91

H0 is rejected, so there exists dierence in the mean quiz scores for the two methods. p-value=2P (t > 2.91) < 2(0.005) = 0.01 Assumptions: Two independent random samples are taken from normal populations with common variance.

Q3. In an experiment designed to measure the adaptation time, the sample average time for n = 9 inspectors was 6.32 sec. and the sample standard deviation was 1.65 sec. It has previously been assumed that the average adaptation time was 7 sec. 2

(a) [2] Do the data contradict prior belief when the level of signicance is 0.1? (b)[1.5] Construct a 90% condence interval for population average time. Does it conrm your result in part(a)? (c) [0.5] State your assumptions. Solution: (a) H0 : = 7; Ha : = 7; test statistic: t= 0 X 6.32 7 = = 1.24. s/ n 1.65/3

With = 0.10 and n 1 = 8 degree of freedom, reject H0 if |t| > t0.05 = 1.86. So, H0 is not rejected and the data dont contradict prior belief. (b) 90% condence interval is 1.65 s t/2 = 6.32 1.86 5.297 < < 7.34 X n 3 This condence interval conrms the result from part (a) (c) Random sample from normal population Q4. [3] A company is interested in oering its employees one of two employee benet packages. A random sample of the companys employees is collected, and each person in the sample is asked to rate each of the two packages on an overall preference scale of 0 to 100. Results were Program A: 45, 67, 63, 50, 77, 60, 47, 39, 56, 68, 70 Program B: 56, 79, 60, 45, 85, 39, 50, 41, 50, 69, 82 Do you believe that the employees of this company prefer, on the average, one package over the other? Explain. Assume each data set comes from a normal distribution and take = 0.05. Solution: We wish to test H0 : 1 2 = 0 vs. Ha : 1 2 = 0 or H0 : d = 0 vs. Ha : d = 0 It is paired data where di : 11, 12, 3, 5, 8, 21, 3, 2, 6, 1, 12 = d
i 17.82 i = 998 = 98.02 di /n = 14/11 = 1.27 and s2 d : n1 10 d0 1.27 0 = The test statistic is t = = 0.43. For n 1 = 10 degree of freedom sd / n 9.9/ 11 t0.025 = 2.228, so H0 is not rejected.

d2 (

d )2 /n

Q5. [2] A sample of 300 urban adult residents of a particular state revealed 63 who favored increasing the highway speed limit from 55 to 65 mph, whereas a sample of 180 rural residents yielded 75 who favored the increase. Do the data indicate that the sentiment for increasing the speed limit is dierent for the two groups of residents when level of signicance is 0.01? Find the p-value.

Solution: H0 : p1 p2 = 0 vs. Ha : p1 p2 = 0 The test statistic is p 1 p 2 Z= p q /n1 + p q /n2 where p = then t= X1 + X2 63 + 75 = = 0.29, n1 + n2 300 + 180 0.21 0.42 (0.29)(0.71)(1/300 + 1/180) Reject H0 if |Z | > z0.005 = 2.575, so H0 is rejected p-value=2P (Z < 4.91) 0 = 4.91