THREAT ASSESSMENT

Potential Terronst Threats to the 2014 Soclp Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games Objective

1 This assessment reviews information with respect to potential terrorist threats to the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic and PEl.yppid, Games ,(WOPG) e. 1 r
.

--

-a.-

ITAC I CIET 13/32-E

CONFIDENTIAL

Overall Threat Assessment

Domestic

pf J3$ttodddcko

Mpwqc
Md&* 3014E

-{4PMki&iW
4 xprqgg r$nqf 3 ra flu x-g:rX r r SeuOO4 ha aa1a n&

3*$4*1*fld 4*pI*d
oat

a nnW4a

ITAC / CIET 13/32-F

CONFIDENTIAL

7. 1K attacks on civilians and infrastructure could be repeated: 1K typically targets Russian security forces in the North Caucasus but have also launched attacks outside the region, but still within Russia, against civilians and infrastructure, including an international airport where foreigners were killed. IKs record as an opportunistic and brutal terrorist organization

8. 1K leader Doku Jjmarovs Islainist outlook raises concenis: 1K leader Doku Khamaiovich Umarov is a fervent Islamist who espouses AQs ideolov of glohalj iliad. His yiew that Israeli, US and UK interests are legitimate targets raises concerns :mv Westerners could be targeted. Umarov appears to have consolidated his leadership but tiLiestions. rinaip over the extent 1K cells will follow his lead, especially as some 1K commanders eliminated by .Russjan counter-terrorism efforts are being replaced by younger, less experienced tighters. In February 2012, Uniarov ordered an end to attacks on Russiancivilians, however, a number of incidents since resulted in a number of civilian deaths, including Imams, in the North Caucas LIX.

Dagestani 1K affiliate, not bombing, saying it does

not see the USA as an

10. 2011 Attack on tourists, skilifts at Mt. lIbrus: In midFebruary 2011. individuals possibly associated with.lK carried out attacks at Mount Fibrus in KarbatdinoBalkaria which resulted in the deaths of Thur tourisis and the sabotage of ski-lifl at a ski resort. Russian authorities also neutralized ear bomb near a hotel in the same period .Ui Islainist s el.site linked with 1K said the tourists were killed by mujahidin because they came into the zone of war. [his atypical attack on a sporting liieiliiv occurred only some 250 km from Sochi

ITAC I CIET 13/32-E

CONFIDENTIAL

11. Potential for anarchist activities, protest violence, ads of sabotage, or hoaxes: A 2013 03 19 Janes report indiatecl anarchists affiliated with the Informal Anarchist Federation (FAI). based in Italy, and the Earth Liberation Front (ll 1 F) threw incendiary devices at vehicles in 11w town of Solnechogorsk in the Moscow Oblast in March 2013. Extremists could also call in hoaxes in an effort to preoccupy authorities. For esanipic. Mosoiv Times reported a bomb threat on 2013 04 19 resulted in the suspension of all flights at St. Petershrgs PulkovoAirport.

li

Russias 16. Steady p his commitment to (FSB), are implementii there will be more security WQPG: Russian President Vladimir Putin has affirmed Authorities, including the Federal Seourity Service The Moscow Times reported in April 2013 that train stations across Russia ahead of the WOK).

17. Safe Sochl Program: On 2011 03 14, Voice of Russia said a program called Safe Sochi would involve a coordination centre channeling information from around the region during the WOPG.

ITAC/CIET 13/32-E

CONFIDENTIAL

HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS This document is the property of the Integrated Terrorism Assessment derived from various sources with information effective as agency/department in confidence and may be further appropriate security clearances and appropriate security syste or reused in any way, in whole or in part, without the consent c via email to ITAC at

cur

Prepared by ITAC, it is It is provided to your to those with reclassified d

This document constitutes a record which may be subject to mandatory e Act or the PrivacyAct. The information or intelligence may also be protec Evidence Act. The information or intelligence must not be disclosed or used as with ITAC.

liitrattd

1c iorism Aesinent (I]1re

(cntre

nt

re de\

tlUaLOLI

du triu

THREAT HIGHLIGHT
Imirat Kavkaz Leader Calls for Attacksto Stop 2014 Socb Winter Olympics
Doku Umarov the leader of the North Caucasus Islamist extcms3 umlre1l gioip Imirat Kavkaz (1K, aka Caucasus Emirate) called for attacks against the 2014 Sothi inter lymncs in Russia in a June 2013 video posted on a website affiliated with the group Umarov urged his followers to use maximum force to disrupt these satanic games He also fonnally lifted henyratonum that he had declared in February 2012 against attacking civilians inside Russia

Summary Umarov stated, They pla hold Opi,cs on the bones of our ancestors, on the bones of many, many dead Muslin$$uried p r land lthe Black Sea We as mujaludeen are reqwred not to allow that, using any metho4stht a11owus Others share Umarov s sentiment, though not his methods The Games coincides *i)h the. 1 50?at1mvefsary of the alleged massacre of ethnic Muslim Circassians near Sochi by Rtisau trpps,)E hasexpressed its support for the Circassians (to date) non-violent opposition to th s1es

ITAC I CIET

TH 13153-E

CONFIDENTIAL

L._.ZZ

H
i.
.

tj.

HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS /

This document is the property of the Integrated Teironsm Assessment Centre (ITAC). Prepared by ITAC, it is derived from various sources with information effective as of the date of publication. It is provided to your agency/department in confidence and may be further disseminated by your agency/department o those with appropriate security clearances and appropriate security systems to retain the information. It must not be ieclasrifid or reused in any way, in whole or in part, without the consent of the originator. Any feedback should be directed via email to ITAC at,

This document constitutes a record which may be subject to mandatoiy exemption under the Access to Information Act or the Privacy Act. The information or intelligence may also be protected by the provisions of the Canada Evidence Act. The information or intelligence nuist not be disclosed or used as evidence without prior consultation with ITAC.