Matteson Retail Report

RETAIL MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY LINCOLN MALL AREA LINCOLN HIGHWAY, CICERO AVENUE & INTERSTATE 57 MATTESON, ILLINOIS
PREPARED FOR VILLAGE OF MATTESON MATTESON, ILLINOIS JUNE 2006
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Number I. II. Title ASSIGNMENT Study Assumptions EXECUTIVE SUMMARY General Findings Conclusions Recommended Actions Estimated Retail Sales by Retail Category Prospective Major Retailers Lifestyle Tenants in Lifestyle Center Not in Lincoln Mall Mattesons Shopping Centers METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS Methodology Definitions LINCOLN MALL AREAS RETAIL CONCENTRATION Mattesons Retail Sales Comparison of Lincoln Mall to Eight Other Malls Comparison of Lincoln Mall to Four Lifestyle Centers Matteson Shopping Centers - Part of the Lincoln Mall Area RETAIL TRENDS National Trends Chicagoland Retail Situation Retail Development and Vacancy Big Box Discount Department Stores and Supercenters Department Stores Supermarkets and Warehouse Stores Drug Stores Electronics Stores Furniture Stores Home Improvement Stores Restaurant & Quick Service Casual Facilities RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS Site/Location Accessibility Traffic Counts Driving Time Analysis Trade Area Delineation Trade Area Market Support Factors Page Number 1 2 3 3 3 11 11 15 15 16 20 20 23 26 26 27 29 31 32 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 38 38 39 39 41 41 41 42 43 44 44
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Section Number VI.
Title RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS (Continued) Competitive Environment Orland Park Homewood/Glenwood Tinley Park Crestwood Country Club Hills Calumet City Planned and Proposed Shopping Facilities Retail Expenditure Patterns Market Penetration Estimated Retail Sales by Retail Category Home Improvement General Merchandise Food Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Electronics & Appliances Eating & Drinking Drug and Miscellaneous Prospective Major Retailers Lifestyle Tenants not located in Lincoln Mall Mattesons Shopping Centers near Lincoln Mall Introduction to Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.
Page Number
48 49 51 52 52 52 52 53 53 60 63 63 63 64 64 64 65 65 66 66 68 Addenda
LIST OF TABLES
Number
2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8
Title
Market Support Factors, Matteson Trade Area Market Support Factors, Matteson Trade Area (Continued) 2006 Retail Sales and Market Penetration Matteson, Illinois
Page Number
6 7 8 19 27 28 30 46 - 47 50 54 - 57 58 58 60 61 62
Estimated Retail Expenditures, Market Penetration, & Matteson Estimated Retail Sales, 2006, 2010, & 2015 Matteson Retail & Foodservice Sales 2002 2005 Comparison of Chicagoland Selected Malls to Mattesons Lincoln Mall Comparison of Chicago Lifestyle Center Demographics Market Support Factors Lincoln Mall Area Trade Area Competitive Retail Facilities 2002 Retail Sales, Cook County, City of Chicago, and Matteson Retail Sales by County, Chicago Metropolitan Area, 2003 - 2005 Matteson Retail & Foodservice Sales 2002 2005 Per Capita Retail Expenditures by Retail Category, 2006, 2010, & 2015 Mattesons Estimated Retail Expenditures by Retail Categories, 2006, 2010, & 2015 Estimated Retail Expenditures, Market Penetration, & Matteson Estimated Retail Sales, 2006, 2010, & 2015
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Number
2.A 4.A 6.A 6.B 6.C 6.D 6.E
Description
Matteson Trade Area Lincoln Mall Redevelopment, Matteson, Illinois
Page Number
4 26 41 42 43 45 51
Aerial View, the Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue Interchange Adjacent to Interstate the Interstate 67 Interchange Traffic Counts for Major State and Federal Roads, Illinois Department of Transportation, Matteson, Illinois Driving Time Analysis 10 & 20 Minutes, Lincoln Mall Area Matteson Trade Area Map 10 Mile Radius Map, Lincoln Mall, Matteson, Illinois Showing Position of Orland Square Mall & River Oaks Center
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

SECTION I
ASSIGNMENT
Our assignment has been to undertake a Retail Market Feasibility Study in and around Lincoln Mall at the intersection of Lincoln Highway (U.S. Highway 30), Cicero Avenue (Illinois Highway 50), and Interstate 57 in Matteson, Illinois. Our study included the following:
A. Preparation of a Market Feasibility Analysis which determined the extent of the current and
future retail market in and around Lincoln Mall.

B. A review of the issue of the dying Lincoln Mall image. C. Investigation of the realty of the retail redlining issue, along with actions to eliminate the
issue.
D. Determination of Mattesons overall market penetration and by major retail categories. E. Identification of prospective stores that should be in the Lincoln Mall area retail
concentration.
F. Preparation of action recommendations to address the image, market, and prospective new
tenants and big box retailers that can flourish and improve retailing and sales tax revenue in the Village STUDY ASSUMPTIONS The project was carried out under the following assumptions: 1. No major malls, shopping centers, or major big box competitors, other than those identified in this report will be constructed within the Primary or Secondary portions of the Trade Area. Any such development would require a reassessment of the conclusions and recommendations contained herein. 2. The economy of the United States will not experience another major recession or inflation that would result in a significant adjustment in consumer spending or buying attitudes. 3. Gasoline prices will not consistently exceed $3.50 per gallon for an extended period of time. If this occurs, significant changes may occur in shopping and spending patterns. 4. The United States will not expand the current war on terrorism or escalate military operations overseas, nor will the United States experience any major catastrophe or terrorist act that would interrupt shopping, driving, mail delivery, or spending patterns. -1-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois 5. A considerable amount of data has been gathered, sorted, and analyzed. Much of the data has come from agencies of federal, state, county, and the Village of Matteson, along with local real estate companies. Additionally, secondary sources have been utilized, where pertinent. Where possible, our staff has examined the information for its validity and authenticity. Since we have no way of controlling the development of these data sources, we take no responsibility for any inaccuracy. During the course of the study program we have utilized standard statistical techniques involving both subjective and objective judgments in order to arrive at the conclusions and recommendations. 6. We certify that we have no present of prospective interest in the properties in the Matteson area that are the subject of this report and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. Our compensation is not contingent upon any action or event resulting from this analysis, opinions, or conclusions, in or use of this report.
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SECTION II
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The conclusions and recommendations resulting from this market study are contained throughout this report. However, for convenience, this section of the report summarizes our findings. GENERAL FINDINGS 1. Matteson is a dynamic retail Chicagoland suburb. While Matteson only has a population of approximately 15,000 people, the Communitys retail sales are the 16th largest in the metropolitan area. In 1998, Matteson was in the 21st position with sales of $440 million. In 2005, Mattesons retail sales amounted to approximately $804.7 million. The sales were down slightly from the 2004 sales of $804.8, but up from the 2003 retail sales of $789.9 million according to the Illinois Department of Revenue, Sale Tax Receipt reports. 2. Matteson has over 2,700,000 square feet of retail space, including Lincoln Mall, numerous other shopping centers, and large big box stores. 3. Mattesons population size has been more of a limiting factor in retail sales growth, than retailer store interest. The Village has a population of approximately 15,000 and a Primary Trade Area population of 151,534 persons. Most major mall areas have higher population numbers. More population growth in Matteson and its adjacent suburbs will have a positive impact upon retail sales. 4. The Lincoln Mall Area has excellent access. Lincoln Highway (U.S. 30) is a major eastwest traffic artery extending from the Indiana-Illinois state line to Frankfort, Illinois and beyond. .Cicero Avenue (Illinois 50) is a major north-south artery that traverses most of the Chicagoland area. Interstate 57 connects the City of Chicago with Memphis, Tennessee and beyond. All of these routes contribute to the importance of retailing in Matteson. 5. Mattesons current Average Household Income is estimated at approximately $72,500. By 2010, Average Household Income is expected to rise to approximately $80,000. 6. The planned third Chicagoland Airport, should it be built, will add to the Mattesons area dynamics with new housing, jobs, and increased retail sales. CONCLUSIONS 1. Mattesons Trade Area extends northward to Interstate 80, eastward to just beyond Illinois Highway 1, southward to Manteno, and westward to Frankfort. Mattesons Trade Area is proscribed by major malls and retail concentrations in Orland Park, Homewood, Tinley, Park, Crestwood, Calumet City, and developing retail concentrations in Frankfort and Kankakee. Figure 2.A depicts the Total Trade Area of the Matteson retail concentration emanating from Lincoln Highway, Cicero Avenue and Interstate 57.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois 2. The Primary Trade Area, the segment from which the most frequent customers originate, has a current estimated population of 151,534 persons in 52,006 households. The Average Household Income is estimated at $72,452. By 2010, population of the Primary Trade Area is expected to rise to 158,630 persons in 51,989 households. Average Household Income is expected to rise to approximately $80,000. Table 2.1, entitled, Market Support Factors, provides demographic details for the Trade Area. The Secondary Trade Area, represents that trade area segment where less frequent shoppers originate, contains a population of 115,293 persons in 38,792 households. The population is forecast to 123,890 persons by 2010 and 131,323 persons by 2015. The median age is moderately younger than the Primary Trade Area amounting to an estimated 36.2 years. The average annual household income within the Secondary Trade Area is slightly higher than the Primary Trade Area amounting to an estimated $74,404. Average household is expected to increase to an estimated $83,383 by 2010. The Total Trade Area, including both trade area segments, contains an estimated population of 266,827 persons in 90,798 households. By 2010, the population within the Total Trade Area is forecast to rise to 282,520 persons in 91,869 households, and by 2015 the population is forecast to rise to 296,300 persons in 96,657 households. The median age is 37.1 years. 3. Lincoln Mall, is not a dying Mall, rather it has been impacted by ever changing retail patterns. Like so many other malls, it had become too large for todays consumer demand. The Mall has eliminated two department stores and is creating a power center along its newly designed internal roadway. Target will reportedly be the first major big box to relocate to the corner of Cicero Avenue and the Mall Road. Other smaller boxes will follow. The internal Mall Road connects Lincoln Highway at Kostner Avenue and extends along the south side of the Mall to Cicero Avenue. The following major regional shopping centers have lost department stores and have had to adjust or downsize: Yorktown Center, Hawthorn Center, Old Orchard Center, Stratford Square, The Plaza, Gurnee Mills, Oak Brook Center, Northbrook Court, Charlestown Mall, Randhurst Center, North Riverside Park, Lincolnwood Towne Center, Lakehurst Mall (closed), Fax Valley Mall, Orland Park Place, Stratford Square Mall, and Chicago Ridge Mall. Thus, 16 out of the top 20 malls have had to replace at least one department store. Some have been more successful that others. 4. The Automobile category produces the highest retail sales and sales tax revenues in Matteson. In 2005, Automobile category sales amounted to $285.7 million out of total retail sales of $804.7 million. In 2004, Automotive category sales were $276.2 million.
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Table 2.1
MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS Matteson Trade Area

Primary Trade Area Percent Number Change Population Change
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2005 Projection 2010 Projection 2015 Projection 134,767 133,182 143,789 151,534 158,630 164,975 44,332 46,439 51,762 52,006 52,989 55,361 79,846 59,770 2,952 272 34 3,609 5,052 151,535 15,810 135,725 4.80% 11.50% 0.50% 1.89% 4.48% 52.70% 39.40% 1.90% 0.20% 0.00% 2.40% 3.30% 100.00% 10.40% 89.60% -1.20% 8.00% 5.40% 4.70% 4.00% 96,505 97,530 106,506 115,293 123,890 131,323 30,523 32,908 37,720 38,792 38,880 41,297 7.81% 14.62% 2.84% 0.23% 6.22% 71.45% 22.23% 1.48% 0.12% 0.03% 2.13% 2.55% 100.00% 9.50% 90.50% 1.06% 9.20% 8.25% 7.46% 6.00% 231,272 230,712 250,295 266,827 282,520 296,299 74,855 79,347 89,482 90,798 91,869 96,657 162,223 85,405 4,664 410 64 6,065 7,996 266,827 25,419 241,408 6.00% 12.77% 1.47% 1.18% 5.21% 60.80% 32.01% 1.75% 0.15% 0.02% 2.27% 3.00% 100.00% 9.53% 90.47% -0.24% 8.49% 6.61% 5.88% 4.88%
Secondary Trade Area Number Percent Change
Total Trade Area

Number Percent Change
Households Change
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2005 Projection 2010 Projection 2015 Projection
Population by Race (2005)

White Black Asian Native American Hawaiian / Pacific Islander Two or More Other Race Total Hispanic Not Hispanic
82,377 25,635 1,712 138 30 2,456 2,944

115,292 9,609 105,683
Households by Tenure (2005)

Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Vacant Total 40,686 11,321 5,476 57,483 72,080 79,455 151,535 58,190 5,545 12,219 33,650 7,748 117,352 70.80% 19.70% 9.50% 100.00% 47.60% 52.40% 100.00% 49.60% 4.70% 10.40% 28.70% 6.60% 100.00% 31,612 7,179 3,509 42,300 55,584 59,708 115,292 49,682 3,417 7,646 23,093 5,614 89,452 72.50% 18.50% 9.00% 100.00% 47.80% 52.20% 100.00% 52.20% 4.30% 9.60% 27.40% 6.50% 100.00% 72,298 18,500 8,985 99,783 127,664 139,163 266,827 107,872 8,962 19,865 56,743 13,362 206,804 72.46% 18.54% 9.00% 100.00% 47.85% 52.15% 100.00% 52.16% 4.33% 9.61% 27.44% 6.46% 100.00%
Population by Gender (2005)

Male Female Total
Marital Status (2005)

Now Married Separated Divorced Never Married Widowed Total
Table 2.1
MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS Matteson Trade Area

Primary Trade Area Percent Number Change Households by Income (2005)
Less Than $10,000 $10,000-$14,999 $15,000-$19,999 $20,000-$24,999 $25,000-$29,999 $30,000-$34,999 $35,000-$39,999 $40,000-$49,999 $50,000-$59,999 $60,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000-$124,999 $125,000-$149,999 $150,000-$199,999 $200,000-$249,999 $250,000-$499,999 $500,000+ Total Median Household Income Average Household Income Average Family Income 3,135 1,834 2,049 2,231 2,289 2,526 2,658 5,283 4,728 6,244 7,979 5,042 2,505 1,805 606 667 426 52,006 6.00% 3.50% 3.90% 4.30% 4.40% 4.90% 5.10% 10.20% 9.10% 12.00% 15.30% 9.70% 4.80% 3.50% 1.20% 1.30% 0.80% 100.00% $58,457 $72,452 $83,373 10,788 11,333 12,061 10,929 8,508 8,329 9,752 11,361 12,148 12,129 11,200 9,074 6,804 5,066 4,141 3,463 2,414 2,035 151,535 7.10% 7.50% 8.00% 7.20% 5.60% 5.50% 6.40% 7.50% 8.00% 8.00% 7.40% 6.00% 4.50% 3.30% 2.70% 2.30% 1.60% 1.30% 100.00% 7,819 8,719 9,303 8,369 6,301 5,938 6,914 8,400 9,135 9,335 8,411 7,159 5,665 4,239 3,220 2,607 2,021 1,738 115,293 1,916 1,393 1,581 1,590 1,614 1,827 1,807 3,761 3,545 4,890 6,632 3,906 1,908 1,353 399 371 297 38,792 4.94% 3.59% 4.08% 4.10% 4.16% 4.71% 4.66% 9.70% 9.14% 12.61% 17.10% 10.07% 4.92% 3.49% 1.03% 0.96% 0.77% 100.00% $59,555 $74,404 $85,244 6.78% 7.56% 8.07% 7.26% 5.47% 5.15% 6.00% 7.29% 7.92% 8.10% 7.30% 6.21% 4.91% 3.68% 2.79% 2.26% 1.75% 1.51% 100.00% 18,607 20,052 21,364 19,298 14,809 14,267 16,666 19,761 21,283 21,464 19,611 16,233 12,469 9,305 7,361 6,070 4,435 3,773 266,828 5,051 3,227 3,630 3,821 3,903 4,353 4,465 9,044 8,273 11,134 14,611 8,948 4,413 3,158 1,005 1,038 723 90,798 5.56% 3.60% 4.00% 4.20% 4.30% 4.80% 4.90% 10.00% 9.10% 12.30% 16.10% 9.90% 4.90% 3.50% 1.10% 1.10% 0.80% 100.00%
Total Trade Area

$58,634 $72,603 $84,289

7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 7.20% 5.60% 5.30% 6.20% 7.40% 8.00% 8.00% 7.30% 6.10% 4.70% 3.50% 2.80% 2.30% 1.70% 1.40% 100.00%
Total Population (2005)

Age 0-4 Age 5-9 Age 10-14 Age 15-19 Age 20-24 Age 25-29 Age 30-34 Age 35-39 Age 40-44 Age 45-49 Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74 Age 75-79 Age 80-84 Age 85+ Total
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois 5. Matteson current market penetration (market share) is 21.7 percent; much higher than the 12 to 15 percent that we normally find for a Chicago Area suburb with a major mall and concentration of big boxes. Mattesons market penetration by major retail categories is depicted in Table 2.2. Table 2.2 2006 Retail Sales and Market Penetration Matteson, Illinois 2006 Category Estimated Retail Sales Home Improvement $63,070,000 General Merchandise $198,496,000 Food Stores $44,749,000 Apparel & Accessories Stores $47,638,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings $11,516,000 Electronics & Appliances $35,708,000 Eating & Drinking Places $47,654,000 Miscellaneous Retail Stores $22,064,000 Drug Stores $29,830,000 Sporting Goods Stores $5,407,000 Book Stores $5,775,000 Total $511,907,000
Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. 2006
Matteson's Market Penetration 21.30% 37.60% 9.80% 19.00% 7.00% 20.00% 12.40% 7.30% 18.00% 7.60% 17.60% 21.70%
The above data show that in the Home Improvement category, Matteson is capturing sales estimated at $63,070,000 which is 21.3 percent of the total potential in this category. Major retailers in this category include Home Depot and Menards. It also indicates that there is a market for another major player such as Lowes. The General Merchandise category includes department stores, discount department stores and other general merchandise stores such as dollar stores and variety stores. Matteson peaked in sales in this category in 1999 with sales of $223 million. Total sales in this category are currently estimated at $198,496,000. Thus, the market penetration in this category amounts to 37.6 percent. It also indicates that there is plenty of room for expansion of existing boxes and the addition of new generators. In the Food Store category, Matteson had 2006 estimated sales of $44,749,000. Sams Cub sales are included in the General Merchandise category. Market penetration in this category was computed at a low 9.8 percent. Adding a Wal-Mart Supercenter will substantially increase food sales in this category. Apparel & Accessories Stores sales in 2006 have been estimated at $47,638,000, most of which is captured by Mall based stores. The market penetration in this category was -8-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois computed at 19.0 percent. Today, a considerable portion of this categorys sales are captured by big box retailers. The Furniture & Household Furnishings category had estimated 2006 sales of $11,516,000 and a market penetration level of 7.0 percent. There is ample room in this category for additional stores. We have talked to Wickes Furniture regarding a new store in Matteson, and they have shown considerable interest doing so. In the Electronics & Appliances category, we have estimated sales at $35,708,000, which given both Best Buy and Circuit City in Matteson is low performance. The current level of market penetration is computed at 20.0 percent. One or both of the stores need to expand to capture a larger share of the potential sales. The Eating & Drinking category has estimated sales captured by Matteson restaurants and quick service facilities amounting to $47,654,000. This categorys market penetration is computed at 12.4 percent. We expect that there will be additional demand for new restaurants in Matteson, especially with the development of new major big boxes. In the Miscellaneous Retail Stores category sales have been currently estimated at $22,064,000. Stores in this category are normally concentrated in the Mall. Market penetration ahs been computed at 7.3 percent. There is a market for additional stores, however, it will not be met until the Mall has completed both external and internal improvements. Sales in the Drug Store category are estimated at $29,830,000. Market penetration has been computed at 18.0 percent. Some of this market is picked up by Target and WalMart. In the Sporting Goods category sales have been estimated at $5,407,000. The market penetration in this category has been computed at 7.60 percent. Book Stores sales have been estimated at $5,775,000. Market penetration has been computed at 17.6 percent of potential in the Book Store category. 6. Mattesons principal competition is located in Orland Park with Orland Square Mall, plus every major big box with the exception of Ikea, Meijer, Costco, and a Wal-Mart Supercenter. Costco is seeking approval for a new store at 159th and LaGrange Road and Wal-Mart is seeking a Supercenter location in Orland Park. Meijers has a site ready to go at 143rd Street and Bell Road in Homer Glen, just west of Orland Park. In 2005, retailers in Orland Park captured retail sales exceeding $1.777 billion, up from $1.709 billion in 2004. General Merchandise sales in 2005 amounted to $258.2 million, down from $290.4 million in 2004, for a decrease of $32.2 million. Orland Park contains close to 6,000,000 square feet of retail space.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois 7. A collection of big box retailers has been developed in Homewood and Glenwood on Halsted Street just north of Interstate 80. Boxes include Kohls, Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Home Depot, Menards, Bed Bath & Beyond, Petco, JoAnn Fabrics, T.J. Maxx, and others. Homewoods total retail sales in 2005 amounted to $377.2 million up slightly from $363.8 million in 2004. 8. A lifestyle center is currently being leased in Orland Park on LaGrange Road at approximately 143rd Street. Lifestyle centers are a collection of popular specialty retailers and restaurants that together generate customers on a frequent basis, usually without department stores. Known as Orland Crossing, the center has the beginnings of a lifestyle center featuring Talbots, Coldwater Creek, Ann Taylor, Chicos, Aveda, Aerosoles, along with Starbucks, P. F. Changs, Francescas, White House/ Black Market, Eden Spa, Omaha Steaks, Collections, ECCO, and others. There are numerous vacancies. Lifestyle centers generally require average household incomes above $80,000. 9. Matteson has more retail square feet in some categories than the market can support. For example, the Apparel and Accessories category has had declining sales since 2002. Unfortunately, there is no simple solution to shifting consumer demand. Consumers are buying more of their apparel in big box stores and less in the Mall. The shift to casual attire has impacted many of these stores. The Miscellaneous Stores Category has also shown weakness. Since most of the stores in this category are located in the Mall, the center has been affected by stores leaving the Mall. The Mall needs to continue with its aggressive marketing plans to attract new stores, as well as improve the facility both in an out to make it more attractive. 10. There is an excess of small vacant retail and service store spaces in Matteson. The slow down of Mall customer generation has had an impact upon small retailers. More retail dollars are being captured by big box retailers and fewer overall Personal Consumption Expenditures being captured by small retail shops. The market has shifted to services and foodservice. Furthermore, the focus of the market is shifted to Cicero Avenue from Lincoln Highway. Improvement to the Mall and increased retail sales will eliminate some, but not all of the vacancy. 11. Retailer redlining is not ethnic issue; rather it is a reaction to department store closings and the loss of some customer generation. Retailers that we talked to indicated that the market was smaller than other mall areas. Also, Penneys closing bothered them. Nonetheless, most are interested to see what happens with the Mall redevelopment and new store additions. Mattesons income is too high and there are too many stores planning expansion or new units to be redlining issue. It is important to get the message out the Matteson is an excellent market. Certainly, the big boxes are moving forward based upon their own experiences. The issue will become moot, as soon as Target opens its new store, Wickes opens a new store, and Wal-Mart announces and builds a Supercenter.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois RECOMMENDED ACTIONS 1. Lincoln Mall should continue to implement the power center development. When the current redevelopment plans are complete, the Mall should implement a lifestyle component on the northeast side of the mall. Here, a cinema, restaurants, specialty stores, and entertainment should be added to create excitement. The Mall needs to renovate both the interior and exterior of the Mall. Added improvement in the area will help attract additional merchants. 2. We recommend that Matteson permit big box retailers to expand or build new stores, such as Wal-Mart, Sams Club, and Menards, and generally assist in implementing new development plans. Also, encourage Penneys, Kohls, Lowes, and Wickes to build new stores. 3. Either Best Buy or Circuit City needs a larger store. As the market penetration indicates one or both need to expand to increase sales. On a combined basis they are only capturing approximately 20 percent of the market in the Electronics & Appliance category. 4. We understand that a user is negotiating to buy the former Builders Square store on Lincoln Highway. We encourage the Village to assist in implementing this action. It will remove a large vacant store, add a viable user, and help to increase activity near many of the smaller shopping centers on Lincoln Highway. 5. Matteson needs to work on its retail image. Regular announcements regarding additions and improvements in Matteson should be communicated to the Chicago area new media. Also, the retail and shopping center media should be informed including Shopping Center Today, Shopping Center Business, Chain Store Age (Shopping Center Addition), Retail Traffic, Heartland Real Estate, Globe Street.Com, and others. Articles should be written regarding Mattesons dynamics, Mall improvement, market penetration, and retail changes. The issues should be directed toward retailers, making them aware of Mattesons proretailing environment. Estimated Retail Sales By Retail Category We have estimated retail sales by major retail category and compared the data to the sales actually being captured in the Village. Next, we simulated alternative retail store development scenarios to determine what was realistic. Finally, we estimated the retail sales that are likely should certain actions take place. These are discussed below by retail category. Table 2.3 at the end of Section II presents the potential expenditures by year, trade area segment, major retail category, market penetration percentages, and the estimated retail sales for 2010 and 2015. Home Improvement Mattesons 2005 retail sales in this category were approximately $63 million. This results in a market penetration in this category estimated at 33 percent for the Primary Trade Area and -11-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois 21.3 percent for the Total Trade Area in relation to Home Improvement expenditures of $296.3 million. Menards and Home Depot are the major retailers in this category. Menards apparently would like to build a new larger store and it is very likely that Lowes will also want to enter this market. In 2010, the potential in this category is forecast to increase to $326.3 million. We forecast that the market penetration should rise to an estimated 27.8 percent, resulting in a sales potential in this category for the existing and added retailers amounting to $90.8 million. By 2015, sales are estimated to rise to approximately $94.8 million. General Merchandise The General Merchandise category includes department stores such as Carsons and Sears and big box discounters including Wal-Mart, Target, and Value City. These stores generated sales of over $197.4 million in 2005 and are now estimated at $198.5 million. The market penetration in this category amounts to 37.6 percent. Target is planning to build a new store, Wal-Mart would like to build a Supercenter, Penneys is looking in the market, and Kohls may eventually wish to be in this market segment. Our forecasts indicate that the market potential in 2010 in this category will amount to an estimated $615.7 million. We estimate the stores in this category can capture approximately 39.6 percent, resulting in estimated sales of $243.8 million. This assumes the both Sears and Carsons continue to operate stores in the Mall. By 2015, the potential in General Merchandise is forecast to rise to $707.7 million. We estimate that the General Merchandise stores in Matteson can expect to capture approximately 35.2 percent of the potential, or sales amounting to an estimated $248.8 million. This assumes that Penneys and Kohls enter the market segment and Target and Wal-Mart build new stores. Food Stores The current market penetration in the Food Store category is a low 9.8 percent. Sales in this category in 2005 were $43.4 million, or about $834,000 a week. That is the equivalent of two strong supermarkets. The potential in this category currently amounts to $458.2 million annually. It should be pointed out the Sams Club sales are included by the government in the General Merchandise category, so this category is understated. Wal-Mart would like to build a Supercenter which features food. We recommend that they be allowed to do so. The market potential in 2010 is estimated at $502.1 million. We estimate Mattesons market penetration rise to 15.8 percent, resulting in Food sales of an estimated $79.1 million. By 2015, Food Store sales are estimated at $84.2 million with a market penetration of 15.4 percent.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Apparel & Accessories Stores In 2005, Matteson captured retail sales in this category of $47.4 million. We estimate sales currently at $47.6 million, resulting in a market penetration of 19.0 percent. The majority of sales in this category are captured by Lincoln Mall. We have assumed that both Mall department stores will remain and improve their attraction. However, this category has had a difficult time throughout the country. Many stores in this category are affected by big box competition. In 2010, we estimate that sales in this category will be about the same at $47.1 million resulting in a market penetration of 17.0 percent. By 2015, we estimate that sales in this category will be approximately $49.5 million with a market penetration of 16.6 percent. Furniture & Home Furnishings Sales in this category in 2005 amounted to an estimated $11.0 million. The current potential in this category is estimated at $165.4 million, resulting in a current market penetration of 7.0 percent. The data indicate that there is a market in this category for one or two new furniture stores. In 2010, the market potential will increase to an estimated $182.1 million. Furniture stores in this market segment should be capable of capturing a market penetration of 15.1 percent, resulting in estimated retail sales of $27.5 million. By 2015, we estimate that the potential should rise to an estimated $198.2 million and with a market share of 17.3 percent; sales are estimated at $34.3 million. Wickes has already shown an interest in locating a new store in this area. Electronics and Appliances Sales in this category in 2005 amounted to approximately $35.0 million. Given a market potential in this category of an estimated $178.5 million, the market penetration currently amounts to an estimated 20.0 percent. The potential in this category in 2010 amounts to an estimated $209.8 million. We expect either Best Buy or Circuit to expand at there curren location or build a new store in this market area. Sales in this category are estimated at $58.0 million in 2010. In 2015, we expect sales to rise to $64.1 million based upon a market penetration of 26.3 percent. Eating & Drinking This category includes both restaurants and quick service food units (formerly fast-food). Sales in 2005 in this category amounted to $44.9 million. We currently estimate sales at $47.7 million for a market penetration of 12.4 percent based upon a market potential of $385.7 million. In 2010, we estimate that the market potential in this category will rise to an estimated $448.5 million. A considerable portion of these potential dollars are spent where people work and in restaurants outside the Matteson area. Nonetheless, we estimate that Matteson will have a market penetration in 2010 of approximately 13.4 percent, resulting in estimated sales of $60.1 million. By 2015, we estimate that market potential will rise to an estimated $552.7 million and Matteson facilities will capture approximately 13.4 percent, or $70.4 million. -13-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Drug Store and Miscellaneous Stores In 2005, this category had retail sales of $65.8 million, up over $10 million from 2004. In our analysis, we have separated the Drug store, Sporting Goods, Book, and Miscellaneous sales from the total category to better see current and future opportunities. Each will be discussed separately. Drug Stores We estimate that Drug Stores are currently capturing sale amounting to approximately $29.8 million. The market potential in this category amounts to approximately $165.8 million, resulting in a market penetration of 18.0 percent. In the Primary Trade Area the market penetration amounts to 28 percent. By 2010, the potential in this category is forecast to rise to an estimated $184.4 million. Market penetration is expected to decline to 16.7 percent because of additional discount competition, resulting in estimated sales of $30.8 million. In 2015, our estimate of potential sales in this category amounts to $202.3 million, with Matteson capturing sales of 16.3 percent for sales of $32.9 million. Sporting Goods Sales in this category are currently estimated at $5.4 million. Total market potential in the Sporting Goods category is estimated at $71.1 million, resulting in a market penetration of 7.6 percent. In 2010, we estimate that the market potential will rise to an estimated $79.7 million and with a market share of 9.2 percent; sales will rise to $7.3 million. In 2015, we estimate that the market potential will rise to $87.4 million and with a market share of 9.2 percent; stores in this category should capture sales of an estimated $8.1 million. Book Stores Currently, we estimate that sales in this category are approximately $5.6 million. With a market potential of $32.9 million, the estimated market penetration is estimated at 17.6 percent. In 2010, we estimate that the market potential will rise to $37.9 million and with a market penetration of 20.3 percent will result in estimated sales of $7.7 million. In 2015, we estimate that the market potential will increase to $42.9 million and with a market penetration of an estimated 20.3 percent; sales are estimated to rise to $8.7 million. Miscellaneous Retail Stores Sales in this category are currently estimated at $32.1 million of the potential of $301.6 million, resulting in a market penetration of 7.3 percent. By 2010, we estimate the market penetration will decline to approximately 6.3 percent because of big box competition, but potential will rise to $341.8 million because of growth and rising income. Thus, sales in this category are estimated at $21.5 million. By 2015, market potential is forecast to an estimated $382.2 million, resulting in estimated sales of $24.0 million with a market penetration of 6.3 percent.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois PROSPECTIVE MAJOR RETAILERS We have evaluated the market potential and the opportunities for retailers not currently in the Matteson portion of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Listed below are a suggest list of potential retailers. Barnes & Noble Costco DSW Shoes Ashley Furniture Kohls Lowes Home Improvement Penneys new free-standing stores Wickes Furniture Woodmans Warehouse Foods Wal-Mart Supercenter LIFESTYLE TENANTS IN LIFESTYLE CENTERS IN THE CHICAGO AREA WHO ARE NOT IN LINCOLN MALL Lincoln Mall has contacted many of these retailers in an attempt to secure them for the Mall. Usually it takes three interested retailers or restaurants at the same time to get the attention of others. We encourage repeated attempts to obtain some lifestyle tenants. It will be necessary to create and environment that appeals to their objectives. Redevelopment of the former department store at the east end of the Mall into a lifestyle component featuring lifestyle retailers, restaurants, cinema, and entertainment segment would have a positive impact upon the Mall. Some of the lifestyle tenants normally found in lifestyle centers are as follows. Lifestyle Tenants Abercrombie & Fitch American Eagle Outfitters Ann Taylor and Ann Taylor Loft Anthropologie April Cornell Banana Republic Barnes and Noble Bombay & Bombay Kids Build-A-Bear Chicos Coach Coldwater Creek Crate & Barrel Eddie Bauer Gap, Baby Gap, Gap Kids Dicks Sporting Goods H&M -15-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Lifestyle Tenants (Continued) Hollister Co. Hot Topics J Crew Jos. A. Bank Pottery Barn and Pottery Barn Kids Restoration Hardware Smith & Hawken Steve Madden Talbot's, Talbot's Petites, Talbot's Woman Tommy Bahama Trader Joes Williams-Sonoma Yankee Candle Company Z Gallerie Cinemas Lifestyle Restaurants The Cheesecake Factory Brio Tuscan Grille P. F. Changs China Bistro California Pizza Kitchen Claddagh Irish Pub Cold Stone Creamery Noodles & Company Corner Bakery Caf Big Bowl Asian Kitchen Maggianos Little Italy Potbelly Sandwich Works Romanos Macaroni Grill Rockfish Seafood Grill Bar Louis Max & Irmas MATTESONS SHOPPING CENTERS The following are a list of Matteson area shopping centers located principally on Lincoln Highway. They vary in size and condition. Some are aggressive and others are passive, simply waiting for a retailer or service store to call. In this environment, one cannot sit and wait; one must be aggressive a go after retailers. Below is a brief discussion of centers in Matteson other than Lincoln Mall. Matteson Towncenter is located in the southwest quadrant of Cicero Ave & Lincoln Highway containing 229,041 square feet. The shopping center currently contains Pets Mart, -16-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Office Max, Fashion Bug, Old Country Buffet and others. Toys R Us is a separate property, as is Applebees and Fuddruckers. A site fronting on Cicero Avenue at the centers traffic light is being readied for development. The shopping center owner is preparing a redevelopment plan for the shopping center which includes a realigned internal roadway. When complete, it will be submitted to the Village. We encourage Village assistance for this strategic location at the Interstate 57, the Matteson Gateway. Century Tile Plaza at 20909 S. Cicero Avenue on the east side of Cicero Avenue contains approximately 49,600 square feet. The primary tenant is Century Tile and a medical office. The vacancies are small store spaces which today are difficult to lease. The owners current focus should be toward service stores and small offices. The supply of small retailers is limited are they are more oriented toward Lincoln Highway. Also, seeing that traffic on Cicero Avenue north of Lincoln Highway is often oriented toward Home Depot, retail stores and service shops that are more men oriented would be best. Furthermore, northbound shoppers who are not destined for Home Depot are leaving the shopping area. Service oriented shops that can be on the back-side of a shopping trip should be considered. Matteson Town Center is located on the northwest corner of Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue. The center contains approximately 157,885 square feet. Tenants include Borders Books, Sportmart, Linens N Things, Marshalls, Mattress World, Harris Bank, Panera Bread Company, and others. Liberty Plaza is located at 4555 Lincoln Highway and contains approximately 64,600 square feet. The center fronts on the south side of Lincoln Highway in front of the Mall and has access to the Mall parking lot. Chernins Shoes is the principal retail generator. Ownership has an approximately 22,500 square foot site for development. This is a difficult size for individual retailers and will probably necessitate dividing the space for two or more users. The expansion of Wal-Mart and Menards and the relocation of Target, as well as other retail change should have a positive affect upon this shopping center. Moreover, ownership is focused upon addressing the vacancy and development opportunity. Matteson Plaza, located in the southwest quadrant of Lincoln Highway and Governors Highway at 4243 Lincoln Highway, contains approximately 280,000 square feet. Major tenants include Dominicks Finer Foods, Michaels, and Value City Department Store. The center was adversely affected by Safeways acquisition of Dominicks and the changes which they instituted which adversely affected the consumer. Value City has not provided the customer generation expected. They are being affected by Wal-Mart. There are considerable vacancies in the center. Centel Plaza is located on Lincoln Highway at 4331 W. 211th Street and contains approximately 23,000 square feet. The principal tenant is Hancock Fabricas. There are approximately 9,000 square feet vacant. As with many of the other centers, filling the small spaces is difficult. The market is primarily for service uses and some small retailers who are not competing directly with the big box retailers. Furthermore, many small centers are avoided because of difficult access. Finally, the vacant former Builders Square has been an -17-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois eyesore. It is our understanding that there may be a buyer and user for the Builders Square building. If so, it would have a positive impact upon this area and this center. The Marketplace Plaza is located on the north side of Lincoln Highway at 4200 211th Street and contains approximately 309,800 square feet. Principal tenants include Cub Foods, Burlington Coat Factory, A. J. Wright, Aronsons Furniture, and others. This center has had some retail turnover even though that it has some generative retailers. This is a reflection of the excessive amount of vacant small retail space in Matteson. The market for small spaces is over built. Nonetheless, the amount of traffic on Lincoln Highway will continue to increase and offer opportunities for other retailers and service stores. Lincoln Square shopping center is located at 4431 W. 211th Street in Matteson and contains approximately 25,000 square feet. The largest store of approximately 8,000 square feet is currently vacant. Pepes Mexican Restaurant is the second largest store. The are other small store vacancies. Here again, the market is producing a limited number of small store retail and service tenants. The focus should be on service and foodservice. That is where the most possibilities will occur. Rose Plaza is located at 4700 W. 211th in Matteson and contains approximately 25,000 square feet with no vacancies. Should vacancies occur, the focus should be toward retail and service. The Former Builders Square on the north side of Lincoln Highway has remained vacant for several years. The unit contains approximately 90,000 square feet and 450 parking spaces. One of the problems of this property is access. The site does not have a traffic light making it difficult to get out of the property. Also, because of the Creek/Retention Area at the frontage of the property the entry is steep, making it more difficult to enter and exit the property. It is our understanding that a user has expressed an interest in the property. The Village should encourage the redevelopment of the property. The Village staff should continue to participate in International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) meetings and other development and redevelopment workshops and seminars to develop contacts, networking, and identifying possible retailers for Matteson. Also, to carry the message of how well Matteson is doing with its dynamic market.
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Table 2.3
Estimated Retail Expenditures, Market Penetration, and Matteson Estimated Retail Sal 2006, 2010, and 2015 Retail Category 2006 Home Improvemen Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area General Merchandise Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Food Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Apparel & Accessories Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Furniture & Home Furnishing Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Electronics & Appliances Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Eating & Drinking Places Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area
1. Miscellaneous Retail Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Drug Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Sporting Goods Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Book Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area
Retail Expnditures 2010 $182,627,546 $143,662,844 $326,290,390 $344,623,675 $271,058,931 $615,682,606 $280,933,730 $221,142,411 $502,076,141 $155,933,290 $120,843,545 $276,776,835 $101,954,674 $80,156,830 $182,111,504 $117,268,814 $92,549,547 $209,818,361 $251,269,920 $197,232,880 $448,502,800 $186,707,510 $155,097,891 $341,805,401 $102,935,007 $81,432,897 $184,367,904 $44,257,770 $35,432,540 $79,690,310 $21,097,790 $16,849,040 $37,946,830 $2,653,445,320
2015 $198,479,198 $157,633,995 $356,113,193 $396,144,078 $311,582,121 $707,726,199 $308,253,884 $238,026,542 $546,280,427 $171,097,441 $128,040,885 $299,138,326 $110,804,105 $87,388,875 $198,192,980 $136,025,673 $107,352,805 $243,378,479 $294,085,693 $231,612,885 $525,698,578 $208,766,562 $173,422,640 $382,189,201 $112,945,198 $89,352,212 $202,297,410 $48,735,792 $38,710,035 $87,445,827 $23,870,592 $19,031,355 $42,901,947 $2,965,794,887
2006
Market Pnetration 2010 45.0% 6.0% 27.8% 55.0% 20.0% 39.6% 25.0% 4.0% 15.8% 24.0% 8.0% 17.0% 23.0% 5.0% 15.1% 40.0% 12.0% 27.6% 20.0% 5.0% 13.4% 9.0% 3.0% 6.3% 26.0% 5.0% 16.7% 15.0% 2.0% 9.2% 27.0% 12.0% 20.3% 25.4%
2015 43.0% 6.0% 26.6% 51.0% 15.0% 35.2% 25.0% 3.0% 15.4% 23.0% 8.0% 16.6% 27.0% 5.0% 17.3% 40.0% 9.0% 26.3% 20.0% 5.0% 13.4% 9.0% 3.0% 6.3% 26.0% 4.0% 16.3% 15.0% 2.0% 9.2% 27.0% 12.0% 20.3% 24.3%
Matteson Estimated Sales3. 2006 2010 2015 $55,357,000 $7,713,000 $63,070,000 $152,633,000 $45,864,000 $198,497,000 $38,755,000 $5,994,000 $44,749,000 $36,720,000 $10,918,000 $47,638,000 $9,365,000 $2,151,000 $11,516,000 $30,276,000 $5,432,000 $35,708,000 $39,278,000 $8,376,000 $47,654,000 $16,669,000 $5,396,000 $22,065,000 $26,221,000 $3,609,000 $29,830,000 $4,782,000 $625,000 $5,407,000 $4,622,000 $1,153,000 $5,775,000 $511,909,000 $82,182,000 $8,620,000 $90,802,000 $189,543,000 $54,212,000 $243,755,000 $70,233,000 $8,846,000 $79,079,000 $37,424,000 $9,668,000 $47,092,000 $23,500,000 $4,008,000 $27,508,000 $46,908,000 $11,106,000 $58,014,000 $50,254,000 $9,862,000 $60,116,000 $16,804,000 $4,653,000 $21,457,000 $26,763,000 $4,072,000 $30,835,000 $6,639,000 $709,000 $7,348,000 $5,696,000 $2,022,000 $7,718,000 $673,724,000 $85,346,000 $9,458,000 $94,804,000 $202,033,000 $46,738,000 $248,771,000 $77,063,000 $7,141,000 $84,204,000 $39,352,000 $10,244,000 $49,596,000 $29,917,000 $4,369,000 $34,286,000 $54,410,000 $9,662,000 $64,072,000 $58,817,000 $11,581,000 $70,398,000 $18,789,000 $5,203,000 $23,992,000 $29,366,000 $3,574,000 $32,940,000 $7,310,000 $774,000 $8,084,000 $6,445,000 $2,284,000 $8,729,000 $719,876,000
$167,748,138 $128,551,695 $296,299,833 $299,279,650 $229,317,777 $528,597,427 $258,365,470 $199,802,769 $458,168,239 $141,229,688 $109,182,471 $250,412,159 $93,648,012 $71,712,246 $165,360,258 $100,921,644 $77,592,189 $178,513,833 $218,208,960 $167,520,729 $385,729,689 $166,687,400 $134,892,810 $301,580,210 $93,648,012 $72,173,418 $165,821,430 $39,853,442 $31,244,403 $71,097,845 $18,487,148 $14,411,625 $32,898,773 $2,354,385,653
33.0% 6.0% 21.3% 51.0% 20.0% 37.6% 15.0% 3.0% 9.8% 26.0% 10.0% 19.0% 10.0% 3.0% 7.0% 30.0% 7.0% 20.0% 18.0% 5.0% 12.4% 10.0% 4.0% 7.3% 28.0% 5.0% 18.0% 12.0% 2.0% 7.6% 25.0% 8.0% 17.6% 21.7%
TOTAL Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.

1. 2. 3.
All dollar figure as in thousands Sales exclude Drugs, Sporting Goods and Book Stores Assumes the addition of a new Target store, a Penney's store,a Kohl's unit, and a Wal-Mart Supercenter..

SECTION III
METHODOLOGY
Our basic approach has been to identify the forces of supply and demand that either directly or indirectly affect retail market potential in Matteson in and around Lincoln Mall over the projection period. The market forces include population, population change, households, age structure, family size, household income, employment, shopping habits and patterns, retail sales, existing and proposed competitive facilities, directional growth patterns, accessibility within the market area, consumer expenditure dynamics, and finally, the share of the market that Matteson might capture overall and by major retail categories. In order to arrive at a determination of the retail market potential, we have carried out a number of research steps. They are summarized below: 1. An analysis was undertaken of trends taking place in retailing and consumer patterns nationally, regionally, and, more specifically, in the Matteson area. 2. A search was conducted of published and unpublished data regarding population, population projections, income, housing, employment, expenditures, retail sales, traffic counts, competition, shopping habits and patterns, consumer preferences, and other data pertinent to this analysis. Sources included: United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, Census of Population: 1990 and 2000 United States Department of Commerce; Census of Retail Trade and Foodservice, 1997 and 2002 State of Illinois - Department of Revenue, Annual Sales Tax Receipt Reports 2000 through 2005 State of Illinois - Department of Transportation (IDOT) State of Illinois - Department of Employment Security (IDES) Northeastern Illinois Regional Planning Commission (NIPC) Matteson Area Chamber of Commerce (MACC) Matteson Department of Economic Development Chicago Southland Chamber of Commerce Chicago Southland Convention and Visitors Bureau Cook County Planning Department Cook County Division of Transportation Chicagoland Retail Guide International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) Mid America Real Estate Annual Shopping Center Development Report CB Richard Ellis Retail report Forrester Research Shopping Centers Today Shopping Center Business -20-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Crains Chicago Business Chicago Tribune The Daily Herald www.Globest.com The Melaniphy Commercial Newsletters Claritas, Inc. Tactician, Inc.
3. Members of our staff visited the Subject Area and toured the Village of Matteson and surrounding communities. We also drove all of the major and many of the minor traffic arteries in and around the Village. Notes were taken regarding housing, schools, parks, commercial facilities, socio-economic levels, employers, and general physical conditions. 4. A senior member of our staff met with Lincoln Mall representatives to discuss the Mall and the current redevelopment efforts. Mall ownership was helpful in providing performance data, customer characteristics, and trade area coverage. 5. Lincoln Mall executives provided us with a zip code distribution of the Malls trade area determined from an analysis of the department stores sales activity. We obtained additional confidential trade area from other retailers with the provision that we keep their data confidential. We utilized the trade area data within the parameters of confidentially in determining the future trade area of the entire Lincoln Mall, Cicero Avenue, Lincoln Highway, and Interstate 57 interchange retail concentration. 6. Members of our staff either met or discussed via telephone with many of the owners or managers of existing shopping centers in Matteson. 7. Accessibility was analyzed in terms of ingress and egress to the intersection, Lincoln Mall, and many of the shopping centers in the area. Also, we reviewed traffic flow and driving times. 8. A Driving Time Analysis was conducted from the Subject Site for 20 minutes in all directions by 5 minute intervals. The locations reached were recorded and plotted on maps to simulate the experience that shoppers would have in driving to the Study Area. Generally, speed limits were observed except where all traffic was moving beyond the posted speed limits. The objective was to simulate distances to competitive facilities, experience any physical or psychological barriers, and to better understand the overall market area. 9. The socioeconomic characteristics of the Matteson area were evaluated and the changes which have taken place, determined. The 2000 Census of Population was evaluated. The socioeconomic characteristics include: population, population growth, age structure, household characteristics, income dynamics, ethnic mix, employment, employment change, housing values, retail expenditure potential, and retail sales trends. 10. Members of our staff inventoried the existing and proposed competitive retail facilities that affect the market at the Subject Site. The evaluation identified the characteristics of shopping -21-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois centers within the Trade Area including their location, size, tenant mix, degree of success, and general impact of competitive facilities. We also identified proposed retail facilities. This includes proposed shopping centers and freestanding retailers including their location, size, timing, major anchors, and anchor sizes. 11. We delineated the Trade Area for the Subject Intersection on the basis of the 2000 Population and Housing Census, estimated 2005 demographic characteristics, the existing and proposed retail facilities, the road network, physical and psychological barriers, the detailed driving time analysis, consumer orientation, and our over 40 years of experience in evaluating projects throughout the world. 12. Once the Trade Area was delineated, we evaluated the 2000 Census of Population and Housing to determine the level of market support available within the Trade Area. Next, we examined the population data and projections from two computer demographic services Claritias, and Tactician. Finally, based upon our local demographic findings, we forecast the demographics of the Trade Area and its subsectors for 2005, 2010, and 2015. Demographics include population, age structure, population growth, households, household size, household income, and other pertinent elements. 13. We analyzed current household income, along with the changes which have taken place since the 1990 and 2000 Census. Moreover, household income was forecast for 2005, 2010, and 2015. 14. Retail sales data was obtained and studied. The initial data included the Census of Retail Trade and Foodservice for Matteson for 1997 and 2002 (the latest Census data available). Next, we analyzed the Illinois Department of Revenue Sales Tax Receipt data for Matteson, by retail category from 2003 to 2005. This assisted in determining the changes that had taken place both in total retail sales and major retail categories. Next, we converted the data to a per capita basis and applied our findings to determine the total retail market potential for the Trade Area in 2005, 2010, and 2015. This process permitted us to identify retail categories which represent a future development opportunity for the Village. 15. We calculated the Trade Area resident's Personal Consumption Expenditures by retail store category. These data were forecast for the projection years. Personal Consumption Expenditures include General Merchandise (including Department stores and big box discounters), Food Stores, Eating and Drinking Places, Womens Apparel and Accessories, Mens Apparel and Accessories, Family Apparel, Childrens Apparel, Furniture and Household Furnishings, Appliances including TV and Electronics, Home Improvement, Drugs and Miscellaneous stores, and others. These data represent the dollars spent by Trade Area residents in retail facilities in and around the Matteson Area and were computed for 2005, 2010, and 2015. 16. Based upon the potential expenditures for the projection years, we first determined Mattesons current market penetration for the various retail categories within the Trade Area segments. Next, we forecast potential expenditures for the projection years and estimated the market penetration that the Village might capture if the recommended improvements and -22-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois retailer additions are implemented. The market penetration or capture rates, when applied to the retail sales potential by retail category, provide sales projections by retail category for the Subject Site for 2010 and 2015. 17. Once the expenditure potential and market penetration by individual retail categories were computed, our staff identified the retail categories which represent an opportunity for the Village. The objective was to identify market opportunities in individual retail categories and then consider specific retailers that "could fill the void". This included an evaluation of the current placement of major retailers in the Trade Area and their respective locations in relation to the Subject Site. 18. We determined the market for retail development in Matteson. Our staff analyzed present and future trends affecting retail development in Matteson and the likelihood of attracting new retail businesses to the Subject Area. 19. A simulation of alternative retail development improvements was undertaken. This involved simulating possible market capture rates for varying types of retail development on the Subject Site. 20. Finally, action recommendations were prepared for the Village as a guide to improving the market for retail, restaurant, and shopping center development. This included the type of development that the market will support; possible phasing of the development; the sales that can be expected in 2006, 2010, and 2015; the types of stores that can be supported; and some of the retailers who should be the center of focus.
DEFINITIONS
The following definitions have been gathered from the International Council of Shopping Centers, the National Retail Federation, The Selection of Retail Locations, Market Research for Shopping Centers, Restaurant and Fast Food Site Selection, The Restaurant Site Selection Guidebook, Urban Land Institutes, The Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers, the International Council of Shopping Centers Dictionary of Shopping Center Terms, and from our own experience over the past 40 years of evaluating markets for retailers and shopping center developers.
A Major Mall or Center can be either open or enclosed and contains at least two department stores anchoring the addition of numerous specialty stores. Malls usually range in size between 400,000 and 1,500,000 square feet. Lincoln Mall falls into this category. A Super Regional Mall or Center usually range between 1,500,000 and 1,750,000 square feet with four or more department stores with over 150 specialty stores, food court operators, and restaurants. Lifestyle Centers usually are a collection of apparel, home, accessory, entertainment, and other specialty stores located in upper middle or upper income areas along with both quick service and full service restaurants ranging in size from 200,000 to 800,000 square feet. -23-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Most do not contain department stores. Presently, there are no lifestyle centers in the South Bend area.
Community Centers are usually older centers with an old Kmart or some other major retail generator along with a mix of retail stores and service shops. They range in size from 100,000 to 350,000 square feet. Many however have either been converted to Power Centers or have considerable vacancies. Power Centers or Power Towns are usually a collection of Big Box retailers including discounters, home improvement, book stores, appliance stores, pet stores, supermarkets, warehouse and club stores, linen stores, sporting goods, computer stores, restaurants, and other box retailers. Stores in this category include Wal-Mart, Wal-Mart Supercenters, Super Target, Target, Meijer, Kohls, Home Depot, Lowes, Menards, Best Buy, Circuit City, Barnes & Noble, Borders Books, Bed Bath & Beyond, Linens n Things, Ross Dress for Less, The Sports Authority, Dicks Sporting Goods, Big Kmart, and others. They can range from approximately 300,000 to 1,000,000 square feet. Outlet Centers usually are a combination of manufacturing company stores and off-price retailers normally located at an Interstate interchange usually on a highway which connects vacation concentrations with urban areas. There are some very large examples of Outlet Centers on the edge of major metropolitan areas. Gurnee Mill in Gurnee fall into this category. Big Box Retailers include almost any large retailer such as Wal-Mart, Target, Kohls, Home Depot, Lowes, Rooms to Go, Bass Pro Shop, Best Buy, Cabelas, Circuit City, Barnes & Noble, Borders Books, Bed Bath & Beyond, Linens n Things, Ross Dress for Less, The Sports Authority, Dicks Sporting Goods, Kmart, Martins, Kroger, Walgreens, CVS, RiteAid, Office Max, Office Depot, Staples, Theaters, and others. They can be either part of a power center or freestanding. They normally range in size from 20,000 square feet to over 200,000 square feet. Super Big Box retailers include Cabelas and Ikea, generate a significant customer base from wide area attraction and operate stores ranging from 200,000 to over 400,000 square feet. Neighborhood Convenience Centers are usually anchored by a supermarket, a supermarket combination unit with a drug store, or a major drug store, along with a collection of convenience and service oriented stores, ranging in size from 30,000 square feet up to 150,000 square feet. Downtown is usually an older part of an urban area where the city first started to grow. It usually contains a concentration of office, financial, retail, government, restaurants, and civic uses surrounded by a combination of residential, industrial, and some small retail uses. Strip Service Centers are very small shopping centers typically with a convenience food mart and other convenience and service shops ranging in size between 7,000 to 20,000 square feet. -24-

Convenience Goods and Service Stores are stores directed toward the convenience of the shoppers. These include supermarkets, food marts, drug stores, hardware, stores, liquor shops, video shop, meat markets, fish markets, fast food shops, restaurants, cleaners, laundry, currency exchange, and other shops serving a narrow market. These stores are shopped on a highly frequent basis to meet local everyday needs. Shopper Goods Stores are stores selling durable goods such as apparel for every member of the family, shoes, accessories, jewelry, appliances, furniture, home furnishings, toys, books, bedding, office goods, and others durable goods. Entertainment includes cinemas, comedy clubs, family entertainment centers, bowling, laser tag, electronic games, electronic sports, and other indoor entertainment venues. A Trade Area represents that portion of a market area where a retailer or retail concentration can expect to capture between 80 and 90 percent of its customers. Because of driving patterns, visitors, employment, and infrequent shopping visitors, it is difficult, if not impractical, to define a Trade Area more precisely. As more distance is added, the area covered grows geometrically making the assessment beyond 90 percent usually uneconomic. o Primary Convenience Trade Area is that area from which the most frequent customers to convenience goods stores originate. o Primary Shoppers Trade Area is that area from which the most frequent customers originate to purchase shoppers goods items. o Secondary Trade Area is generally the area from which less frequent customers originate to make purchases. o Tertiary Trade Area is used with very large and dynamic projects which attract customers from a very wide area. The Tertiary Trade Area usually defines the area from which very infrequent customers will originate.
Market Penetration, sometimes referred to as Market Share, is the percentage of capture that a retailer, shopping center, or retail complex has of the potential expenditures within its respective Trade Area. Personal Consumption Expenditures represent the dollars available for the purchase of goods and services during a year. They usually represent approximately 30 to 40 percent of a households income. Travel or Driving Time Analysis represents the distance that one can drive at five-minute intervals during normal shopping periods following either posted speed limits or keeping up with traffic. Driving times are usually conducted for 20 minutes in each direction from an area of interest.
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SECTION IV
THE LINCOLN MALL AREAS RETAIL CONCENTRATION

The Matteson Lincoln Mall retail concentration is located around the intersection of Cicero Avenue (Illinois 50), Lincoln Highway (U.S. 30) and the Interstate 57 Interchange. Lincoln Mall is a major shopping center featuring a Carson Pirie Scott & Company department store and a Sears department store, along with a large selection of specialty retail stores. The Mall contains approximately 800,000 square feet. The Mall was negatively impacted by the failure of Montgomery Ward and the closing of the J.C. Penney store. Figure 4.A depicts the footprint of the remaining mall following the removal of buildings, the new internal roadway, and planned placement of new buildings. A power center is planned at the southern end of the property.
It is our understanding that Target will relocate from its existing store further south on Cicero Avenue to the new position at the new Mall entrance at Cicero Avenue. Matteson Retail Sales Table 4.1 presents Mattesons retail sales for 2002 from the Economic Census of Retail Trade and Foodservice and retail sales derived from Sales Tax Receipts for the Illinois Department of Revenue annually for 2003, 2004, and 2005 by major retail category.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Table 4.1
MATTESON RETAIL & FOODSERVICE SALES 2002 - 2005
Retail Category Total Retail Sales General Merchandise Food Store Drinking & Eating Apparel & Accessories Furniture & Appliances Home Improvement Automotive Category Drugs & Miscellaneous 2002 $749,837,000 $209,131,000 $34,067,000 $39,197,000 $52,379,000 $50,775,000 $59,537,000 $296,558,000 $45,359,000 2003 $789,948,000 $210,696,000 $44,154,000 $40,653,000 $43,089,000 $49,546,400 $58,429,000 $280,086,000 $51,670,000 2004 $804,790,500 $212,595,934 $43,826,000 $44,463,000 $49,434,703 $47,245,000 $63,619,300 $276,242,008 $55,253,500 2005 $804,696,000 $197,379,100 $43,368,500 $44,920,000 $47,377,000 $45,077,200 $62,921,200 $285,740,900 $65,775,000 Change -$94,500 -$15,216,834 -$457,500 $457,000 -$2,057,703 -$2,167,800 -$698,100 $9,498,892 $10,521,500
Source: United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, Economic Census of Retail Trade and Foodservice, 2002 and the Illinois Department of Revenue, Sales Tax Receipts, 2003 - 2005
Overall, the data show that Mattesons retail sales had been rising slowly from 2002 when Total Retail Sales stood at $749.8 million through 2004 where they reached $804.8. In 2005, sales declined slightly to $804.7 million. The primary decrease was in the General Merchandise category which includes department stores and big box general merchandise stores. This category, which had been increasing until 2004 to $212.6 million, declined to $197.4 million in 2005. The Drugs and Miscellaneous category has an increase from 2004 to 2005 of $10.5 million to total sales of $65.8 million. Sales have been increasing steadily in this category. The Automotive category increased by $9.5 million to sales of $285.7 million from 2004 sales of $276.2 million. Sales in 2002 Automotive sales were $296.6 million. The Eating & Drinking category saw an increase of almost a half of million dollars from 2004 to 2005. Sales in this category in 2002 amounted to $39.2 million; in 2005 they stood at $44.9 million. Since 2003, the Food Store category sales have remained fairly constant at between $43 million and $44 million. The Apparel & Accessories category declined from $59.5 million in 2002 to $47.4 million in 2005. The Furniture & Appliance category has declined from it high in 2002 of $50.8 million to its current level of $45.1 million. The Home Improvement category declined slightly in 2005 to $62.9 million from $63.6 million in 2004. Comparison of Lincoln Mall to Eight Other Malls Lincoln Mall has had some problems, namely department store closing, however, so have other malls in the Chicago area. Nonetheless, the Lincoln Mall remains the largest single retail concentration of retail facilities in this segment of the market. Carsons and Sears continue to generate significant sales and customer attraction. Table 4.2 presents a comparison of Lincoln Mall to eight other malls in the Chicago Area. These include Chicago Ridge Mall, Spring Hill Mall in West Dundee, Orland Square in Orland Park, Yorktown Center in Lombard, Fox Valley Mall in Aurora, Woodfield Mall in Schaumburg, Stratford Square in Bloomingdale, and River
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Table 4.2 COMPARISON OF CHICAGOLAND SELECTED MALLS TO MATTESON'S LINCOLN MALL THREE & FIVE MILE RADIUS Lincoln Mall Categories General Size of the Mall Department Stores:
800,000 Carson's Sears
Chicago Ridge
800,000 Carson's Sears
Spring Hill Mall

900,000 Field's - Macy's Carson's Sears Penney's Kohl's
Orland Square
1,200,000 Field's - Macy's Carson's Sears Penney's $1,776,751,370 $10,860.80 68,539 95,054 163,593 23,179 31,641 54,820 $89,721 $4,918,505,220 $1,967,402,088 62,545 38,973 83.20% 39.8
Yorktown Center
1,200,000 Carson's Penney's Von Maur
Fox Valley Center

1,400,000 Field's - Macy's Carson's Sears Penney's
Woodfield Mall
2,700,000 Field's - Macy's Nordstrom Sears Lord & Taylor $2,927,703,754 $10,670.06 78,295 196,090 274,385 31,144 71,957 103,101 $81,710 $8,424,382,710 $3,369,753,084 127,126 67,857 68.90% 37.9
Stratford Square
890,000 Field's - Macy's Sears Penney's Carson's $864,091,543 $3,219.66 107,741 160,639 268,380 36,413 53,952 90,365 $89,993 $8,132,217,445 $3,252,886,978 102,750 63,461 76.20% 34.8
River
Oaks 1,200,000 Field's - Macy's Sears Penney's Carson's $1,060,395,805 $4,002.84 126,004 138,907 264,911 45,161 47,302 92,463 $53,647 $4,960,362,561 $1,984,145,024 78,924 40,611 62.30% 35.5
The Suburbs 2005 Retail Sales Per Capita Suburb's Retail Sales Population - 3 Miles Population -3 to 5 Miles Population - Total 5 Miles Households - 3 Miles Households - 3 to 5 Miles Households - Total 5 Miles Average Household Income - 5 Miles Aggregate Household Income Personal Consumption Expenditures 5-Miles - Some College 5-Miles - Households above $50,000 5-Mile - Home Ownership 5-Miles - Median age - 2005
Source: Tactician, Inc., 2006 and Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.
$506,000,000 $3,345.87 49,284 101,947 151,231 17,380 34,110 51,490 $75,703 $3,897,947,470 $1,559,178,988 57,368 31,132 74.20% 37.1
$347,547,800 $993.39 149,244 200,618 349,862 54,690 69,336 124,026 $63,323 $7,853,698,398 $3,141,479,359 44,506 67,114 74.10% 39.7
$301,908,400 $1,913.51 57,357 100,420 157,777 17,948 31,915 49,863 $83,527 $4,164,906,801 $1,665,962,720 42,870 31,811 75.00% 31.7
$1,055,095,808 $3,828.11 87,730 187,888 275,618 33,867 71,039 104,906 $107,021 $11,227,145,026 $4,490,858,010 129,823 70,499 72.00% 40.6
$1,911,064,600 $8,448.90 76,802 149,389 226,191 28,897 47,084 75,981 $110,635 $8,406,157,935 $3,362,463,174 91,471 55,927 71.70% 32.6
MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC.
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Oaks Center in Calumet City, Some have lost department stores, while others have not. Woodfield Mall has the highest sales of any of these malls. Only Lincoln Mall and Chicago Ridge Mall have two department stores, all of the others have three or four. Matteson had 2005 retail sales of over $804.7 million, while Chicago Ridge had sales of $347.5 million. West Dundee, including Spring Hill Mall with five department stores, had sales of $301.9 million. All of the other communities and malls had sales larger than Matteson. Yorktown Center in Lombard, Stratford Square in Bloomingdale, and River Oaks Center in Calumet City all had sales over a billion dollars. Orland Park, with Orland Square Mall, had 2005 sales of $1.78 billion, while Aurora, with Fox Valley Mall, had 2005 sales of $1.9 billion. Schaumburg, with Woodfield Mall, was clearly the winner with sales of $2.93 billion. Every one of the Table 4.2 examples has a larger Personal Consumption Expenditures within five miles than Matteson. Personal Consumption Expenditures include what households spend for goods and services such as food, drugs, paint and hardware, general merchandise, home improvement, apparel and accessories, furniture, electronics and appliances, sporting goods, jewelry, office supplies, books, eating and drinking, and numerous other retail goods. Services include cleaners, shoe repair, household equipment repair, banking, cinemas, bowling, theater, amusement, and others. Matteson stood at approximately $1.559 billion while all of the others are higher. The closest to Matteson was Spring Hill Mall in West Dundee with five department stores. Finally, Matteson had a Average Household Income estimated at $75,703 within five miles compared to River Oakss $53,647 and Chicago Ridges $63,323. Orland Park, Mattesons closest major competitor, had Average Household income within five miles of $89,721. Comparison of Lifestyle Centers We compared Lincoln Malls 5 and 10 mile radii with the four existing lifestyle centers in the Chicago area. A lifestyle center is a collection of popular apparel and accessory stores, specialty shops, home furnishing stores, sporting goods, shoe stores, foodservice facilities, and others. They normally do not contain department stores. The four existing lifestyle centers include Deer Park Town Center in Deer Park, Geneva Commons on Randall Road in Geneva, Algonquin Commons in Algonquin, and Wheaton Town Square in Wheaton. Wheaton Town Center was one of the first lifestyle centers built in the United States. Table 4.3 presents the comparison. Matteson (Lincoln Mall) has a five mile population estimated at 151,231 and a 10 mile population estimated at 518,243. This compares favorably with most of the four lifestyle centers. Matteson (Lincoln Mall) has more people within five miles than Geneva Commons, and more people within 10 miles that Geneva Commons and Algonquin Commons. Wheaton Town Square has the most people within 10 miles with an estimated population of 923,229 persons. Deer Park Town Center also has a larger population with an estimated population within 10 miles of 625,231 persons.
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Table 4.3 Comparison of Chicago Lifestyle Center Demographics Lincoln Mall Area 800,000 151,231 367,012 518,243 51,490 121,615 173,105 $75,703 $3,897,947,470 $1,559,178,988 57,368 31,132 74.20% Deer Park Town Center 500,000 168,082 457,149 625,231 60,494 169,998 230,492 Geneva Commons 420,000 108,053 315,809 423,862 38,075 105,826 143,901 Algonquin Commons 400,000 135,835 175,778 311,613 45,805 59,509 105,314 Wheaton Town Square 275,000 233,693 689,536 923,229 90,558 248,411 338,969
Categories Lifestyle Center Size Population - 5 Miles Population -5 to 10 Miles Population - Total Households - 5 Miles Households - 5 to 10 Miles Households - Total Average Household Income - 10 Miles Aggregate Household Income Personal Consumption Expenditures 5-Miles - Some College 5-Miles - Households above $50,000 5-Mile - Home Ownership
$99,449 $84,507 $87,760 $94,027 $16,906,131,102 $12,160,641,807 $9,242,356,640 $31,872,238,163 $6,762,452,441 $4,864,256,723 $3,696,942,656 $12,748,895,265 78,581 44,686 77.5% 37 139,395 26,664 76.7% 35.2 106,110 34,512 86.8% 32.9 113,959 63,350 70.7% 37.7
5-Miles - Median age - 2005 37.1 Source: Tactician, Inc., 2006 and Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois All of the lifestyle centers have an estimated 10 mile Average Household Income higher than Matteson (Lincoln Mall). Mattesons Average Household Income within 10 miles is estimated at $75,703. The closest to Matteson is Geneva Commons with a 10 mile Average Household Income of $84,507. High Average Household Income is one of the needed characteristics of successful lifestyle centers. The comparison indicates that it will be difficult to create either a lifestyle expansion of the Mall or a separate lifestyle center in Matteson. Most retailers expect to see Average Household Incomes of over $80,000. Matteson Shopping Centers which are part of the Retail Concentration In addition to Lincoln Mall, there other shopping centers in the area that are important to the overall well-being of Matteson. These include: Name Matteson Towncenter Century Tile Plaza Liberty Plaza Matteson Plaza Centel Plaza Marketplace Plaza Lincoln Square White Hen Plaza Rose Plaza Location SW Quadrant of Cicero Ave & Lincoln Highway 20909 S. Cicero Avenue 4555 Lincoln Highway 4243 Lincoln Highway 4331 W. 211th Street 4200 211th Street 4431 W. 211th Street 5516 W. Vollmer Road 4700 W. 211th Size 229,041 49,600 64,600 280,000 9,550 309,000 24,500 11,000 25,000
Major big box retailers located in Matteson include Wal-Mart, Sams Club, Target, Value City, Home Depot, Best Buy, Circuit City, Sportsmart, Borders, Burlington Coat Factory, Pep Boys, Toys R Us, Office Max, Cub Foods, Ultra Foods, and others. Wal-Mart is in discussions to build a new Supercenter and Sams Club would like to expand. Reportedly, Menards would like to build a new store, Target has plans to relocate to a new store, L A Fitness is in talks to acquire the old Builders Square store on Lincoln Highway, Circuit City would like to relocate, and Wicks Furniture is seeking a location in Matteson. Kohls should be in Matteson as should some of the other boxes located in Homewood. Penneys is considering a new store in the far southern suburbs.
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SECTION V
NATIONAL AND CHICAGOLAND RETAIL TRENDS

NATIONAL TRENDS At the onset, it is important to understand the changes in retailing that are taking place nationally because they have an impact on the present and future of Mattesons retailing and store development. Few people like to acknowledge the significant negative impact that high gasoline prices are having upon household discretionally buying power, especially those households with SUVs. Generally, one member of the average Chicagoland suburban household is driving an SUV, a truck, or a van, and often painfully finding that at the end of the month his or her credit card is maxed-out with gasoline and other charges. Combined with higher heating and medical costs, the consumer is financially pressed. Retail buying decision-making has changed. Today, Convenience and Price/Value are the primary motivating factors. Moreover, the consumer is driving less distance, staying less time, beginning to think about travel costs, and starting to spend fewer dollars. Consumer patronage to regional malls has been declining while increasing at Wal-Mart, Wal-Mart Supercenters, Target, Super Target, and Kohls, and other major big box stores. Nearly 90 percent of consumers today shop at big box discount department stores and only 50 percent shop regularly at conventional department stores. This does not mean that malls are no longer needed. Rather, it means that most malls will have to downsize to meet the market demand. Lincoln Mall has already done that and is positioned to continue to serve Matteson and the surrounding suburbs. As we move ahead in the later 2000s, retail store winners will be retailers who understand their customer, are convenient to them, and offer a quality product at a reasonable price. Losers have been department stores and small retailers. Marshall Fields and Carson Pirie Scott have been purchased by other national department store companies which are planning to improve them. In a broader view, society is aware of the aging Baby-Boomer generation, however, most do not understand the importance of this change. The Countrys dramatic shift in population age structure is having and will continue to have a major impact on the way the consumer will shop, purchase goods, dine-out, select entertainment, and surf the net. The changing patterns and fierce competition for consumer dollars will create new winners and losers. Most non-upscale malls are struggling to maintain their market share, retail sales, tenants, rental rate levels, and overage rents. In contrast, Internet sales during the 2005 Christmas season increased by over 25 percent excluding travel to approximately $20 billion. Moreover, DSL and high speed Cable connections which are now approaching 50 percent of households have substantially reduced the time required to shop online. Combined with convenience, and occasionally price, offered by the Internet on-line vendors have become an acceptable alternative to todays time-harassed consumers who also seek to avoid fighting the crowds in the stores. Even with these dramatic increases and orientation, Internet sales account for less than six percent of total retail sales in the United States. Internet sales (excluding travel, auctions, and -32-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois stock transactions) reached approximately $250 million per day throughout November and December 2005. CHICAGOLAND RETAIL SITUATION The Chicago Retail Market is an extremely competitive, yet resilient market. The metropolitan area contains over 195 million square feet of shopping center space. There is over 9.0 million square feet of retail development planned this year, however at this time only 7.8 million square feet is actually under construction. Another 10.0 million square feet is planned for 2007. As some retailers have failed, others have stepped in to recycle their vacant properties. The recent weakness in the economy can be tied directly to lackluster consumer spending, rising oil prices, uneven employment growth, and a slowdown in business investment. Nonetheless, Chicago has faired better than many of the major metropolitan areas in the United States. The six county Chicago Metropolitan Area generated retail sales exceeding $98.0 billion in 2005 an increase of approximately four percent over 2004s 94 billion. We have witnessed the demise of Montgomery Ward, Venture, Child World, Silo, Highland, Fretter, Todays Man, Waccamaw Pottery, Service Merchandise, Builders Square, Handy Andy, Courtesy Home Centers, the Warehouse Club, BJs Warehouse, Sears Homelife, and others. Kmart emerged from bankruptcy after closing nearly 700 stores, merged with Sears. Regional malls have suffered with the onslaught of big box retailers like Wal-Mart, Wal-Mart Supercenters, Target, Super Target, Kohls, Costco, Sams Club, Meijer, and others have taken market share away from the department stores and some specialty stores in regional malls. The proliferation of big box retailers has created stagnation in regional mall development. In 2005, only two regional malls opened in the United States and only five have opened or expected to open in 2006. However, with all of the negative issues with malls, they nonetheless will remain an important part of the retailing landscape. This is true of Lincoln Mall which lost two department stores and demolished part of the mall and commenced development of a power center on the recovered land. Most of the newest shopping centers are lifestyle centers, power centers, power towns, and supercenters. A lifestyle center is generally between 300,000 and 600,000 square feet. The facility usually contains stores that cater to an upscale lifestyle in a convenient environment with ample parking, usually without department stores. Lifestyle centers are typically open-air with an urban Main Street feel. Many have two story facades to simulate Main Street of the past. Chicago area lifestyle centers include Deer Park Town Center in northern suburban Deer Park, Geneva Commons in western suburb Geneva, Wheaton Town Square in western suburb Wheaton, Algonquin Commons in northwest suburban Algonquin. The Glen in Glenview was planned as a lifestyle center, however because of its proximity to Old Orchard Center, it was unable to obtain the necessary specialty stores. A new lifestyle center is under construction in Hoffman Estates known as the Arboretum of South Barrington, which features most of the typical lifestyle stores, restaurants, and atmosphere. This lifestyle center also has a significant home furnishings orientation featuring several furniture stores in addition to William Sonoma and Pottery Barn.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Orland Park has a small lifestyle center developing on LaGrange Road at 143rd Street north of Orland Square Mall. Known as Orland Crossing, the mixed use development currently contains town homes along with retailer and restaurants including Chicos, Ann Taylor, Coldwater Creek, Aerosoles, Aveda, Talbots, White House/Black, P. F. Changs, Starbucks, and others. There are also vacant spaces awaiting new retailers. Power centers are typically occupied by big box stores including supercenters, discounters, home improvement retailers, and many others. Most also include restaurants, cinemas, and other entertainment venues. Some of the active big box retailers scouting for sites and building new stores in the Chicago Metropolitan Area market include the following: Barnes & Noble Bass Pro Shop Best Buy Burlington Coat Factory Cabelas Costco CVS Pharmacy Dicks Sporting Goods Gander Mountain Home Depot IKEA Jared Jewelers Kohls Laz-E-Bay Lowes Home Improvement Marshalls Michaels Meijers REI Shoe Carnival Staples Super Target Stein Mart Traders Joes Wal-Mart Supercenters Whole Foods Woodmans Wickes Furniture RETAIL DEVELOPMENT AND VACANCY According to CB Richard Ellis, the vacancy rate of retail space over 50,000 square feet in the Chicago Metropolitan Area in the First Quarter of 2006 was approximately 7.52 percent, an increase from 7.2 percent in the Fourth Quarter of 2005. According to their data there is a total -34-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois inventory of 112.3 million square feet of stores in shopping centers over 50,000 square feet, of which approximately 8.1 million square feet is vacant. Chicagos South Suburbs has a retail inventory of stores and centers over 50,000 square feet of 6.1 million square feet and a vacancy of approximately 500,000 square feet, or 18.4 percent. This is the highest percentage of vacancy in all of the Chicago Area subsectors. Other segments which have larger inventories of retail square feet have higher vacant amounts such as the Far Northwest Suburbs with 1.4 million square feet vacant and the Far Southwest Suburbs with 1.1 million square feet vacant. Next, was Kane County with a vacancy of 1.1 million square feet. This is followed by the City of Chicago North submarket with over 900,000 square feet vacant, and the Far West Suburbs with a vacancy of 650,000 square feet. There percentages of vacancy are lower because their total retail square footages are higher than the South Suburbs. In the Chicagos Metropolitan Area the retail market grew at 4.4 percent in 2005. Retail sales exceeded $98.4 billion in 2005 up form $94.2 billion in 2004. Retail sales growth in 2004 amounted to 4.5 percent. In 2003, retail sales in the Chicago Metropolitan Area stood at $90.1 billion. Now lets examine each of the major retail categories and their trends. Big Box Discount Department Stores and Supercenters The arrival of new superstores in the Chicago Metropolitan will continue to have a major impact upon the way consumers shop. Target, Wal-Mart, and Meijers all operate superstores with between 175,000 and 220,000 square feet featuring food, general merchandise, auto parts and service, and in some cases gasoline. They may give consumers another reason not to go to the mall. There will be seven new Wal-Mart Superstores opened in 2006 that will need sales of over $900 million annually. Wal-Mart Supercenters average over $130 million annually, and they are planning to add about 13 new Supercenters in 2007. The combined 20 stores will need sales of over $2.6 billion. Retail sales growth in 2005 for the entire Chicago Metropolitan amounted to $4.2 billion. The Wal-Mart stores will not simply be capturing newly created business. Rather, it will be taking most of the business away from other retailers. Super Target is also engaged in the process of rolling out superstores which will, no doubt, influence existing Target stores. The first Super Target in the Chicago Metropolitan Area opened in St. Charles in 2002. The other Super Targets are being added throughout the Chicago area. The superstores will have an impact upon the conventional grocery stores as they are expected to generate food sales of $25 to $50 million initially. Kohls continues to infill stores in the Chicago Metropolitan Area ranging between 80,000 to 110,000 square feet. Penneys is planning to add new prototype free-standing 105,000 square foot stores to the market. The Meijer expansion into the Chicago Metropolitan Area has slowed considerably. The latest Meijers 190,000 square foot store opened in Rolling Meadows in 2005. Other locations where -35-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois sites have been acquired include: Bloomingdale, Hoffman Estates, Homer Township, Lisle, and South Barrington, among others. Some of the operating Meijer stores in the metro area include Bolingbrook (2 stores), McHenry, Merrillville, Naperville, Oswego, South Elgin, and St. Charles, among others. Meijers performance has been below expectation. Finally, there are additional supercenters proposed in the metro area. Woodmans opened a 273,000 square foot superstore in Carpentersville. Two new stores are planned in 2006 in North Aurora and Romeoville. Joliet has been rumored as a 2007 location. Woodmans also operates a superstore in Kenosha at Interstate 94 and Route 50 and others in Wisconsin. Department Stores Department stores, the major mall generators, have generally experienced flat or declining sales, customer visits, and customer interest. Department store companies have consolidated in recent years with many slashing costs, cutting prices, reducing inventory, and eliminating unprofitable departments. Because of their problems, the number of customer visits to the mall has declined, adversely affecting many mall tenants. Federated Department Stores purchased the May Company in 2005, including Marshall Fields. Fields name will be changed to Macys; Lord & Taylor sale is currently pending. The continuing decline in fashion apparel sales productivity is disturbing given that most current fashion items are delivered through regional malls. The Dressing Down of America which started with Casual Fridays has eroded the demand for fashion apparel. Most companies now have a casual dress policy for Fridays, and many have policies permitting casual attire on all but special occasions. These policies have slowed department store sales, especially in mens suits and womens dresses. Fashion apparel and accessories were historically the merchandise centerpiece of most conventional department stores. Stores focusing on better casual wear have capitalized upon this trend. Many malls have re-merchandised their vacant department stores with other department stores or a mix of big box stores to broaden their appeal beyond fashion merchandise and accessories. Nordstroms continues to be the darling of Chicago area consumers. Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue are truly specialty fashion retailers focused principally on North Michigan Avenue. Bloomingdales in Chicago has not captured the hearts and minds of area consumers. While the North Michigan Avenue store does well, the Old Orchard store struggles. Von Maur, often referred to as Nordstrom Junior, operates three stores in the Chicago market; Yorktown Center in Lombard, Charlestown Mall in St. Charles, The Glen in Glenview. The Yorktown stores does very well, Charlestown Mall is adequate, while the Glenview store is performing poorly along with The Glen. Carsons, as part of Saks Northern Department Store Group, was acquired by Bon-Ton Stores, including 31 Carson Pirie Scott stores located in Illinois (28) and Indiana (3); 47 Younkers stores located in Illinois (1), Iowa (18), Michigan (9), Minnesota (2), Nebraska (4), South Dakota (1) and Wisconsin (12); -36-
40 Herbergers stores located in Colorado (1), Iowa (1), Minnesota (16), Montana (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (4), South Dakota (3), Wisconsin (3) and Wyoming (1); 14 Bergners stores located in Illinois; and 10 Boston Store locations in Wisconsin. Most of the Carsons full-line suburban stores are generating over $20 million in sales annually. The Bon-Ton department stores average approximately $9.4 million in sales. In recent years, Carsons has not been able to grow and its future depends upon its ability to regain consumer respect and visitation. It also depends somewhat upon the negative impact of Macys, and Carsons ability to overcome Kohls and other big box stores. During 2006 and 2007, we will continue to see a loss of Department store market share to boxes and specialty stores. Only one new conventional department store, Von Maur, has opened in the metro area in the last five years. Supermarkets and Warehouse Stores The Chicago Market is changing dramatically with the shift from supermarkets to food warehouses. Jewel is the supermarket leader in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, followed by Dominicks and Cub Foods. Jewel, previously owned by Albertsons, was acquired by Super Value and continues to expand throughout the Chicago market. Cub Food, previously owned by Super Value, was sold to a group of investors as required by the Federal Trade Commission as part of the Super Value agreement to purchase Albertsons. Nonetheless, Costco, Wal-Mart Supercenters, Sams Club, Super Target, Meijers, and Woodmans are planning more stores. Safeways decision to keep Dominicks, which had been for sale, changes the companys focus on supermarket merchandising in the Chicago market. It is now attempting to regain much of its lost market share. This will be a difficult process. Nevertheless, it is a good decision for Chicagoland consumers who will benefit from the competition. Cub Foods operates over 20 stores in the market. Cub Foods continues to struggle to gain market share in the metro area The decline in Dominicks market share has helped Cub Foods somewhat. Costco continues to be a big winner in the Chicago market. Nationally, company sales are averaging over $115 million per unit, nearly double the revenue of Sams Club at $63 million. Additionally, Costco has some Chicagoland stores generating sales in the neighborhood of $200 million. Costco is capturing sales especially at the higher price points in meats, wines, and bakery. Costco is the nations biggest seller of fine wines with sales over $600 million per year. According to recent reports, Costco is the only competitor that worries Wal-Mart. New Costco stores are planned in Chicago, Orland Park, Bolingbrook, Hoffman Estates, and other suburbs. Sams Club, a Wal-Mart company, also operates food and general merchandise stores throughout the Chicago market. Sams Club continues to take its share but cannot seem to gain additional -37-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois market penetration primarily because of Costco. Sams Club operates a successful unit in Matteson. Ultra Foods also has a successful store on Lincoln Highway. While Wal-Mart is now the biggest food merchant in the country; they are just getting started in the Chicago market area. As previously indicated, they will be adding at least 20 Supercenters over the next two years. Many more are currently being planned. Some specialty grocery stores continue to experience strong sales growth including Whole Foods Market and Trader Joes. Whole Foods Market operates 20,000 to 40,000 square foot units and generates sales of $18 to $20 million per unit. Trader Joes operates approximately 11,000 square foot with sales of approximately $4.0 to $5.0 million per unit. Aldis, a bulk food seller, has over 50 stores in the Chicago Market. Drug Stores Walgreens continues to dominate the Chicagoland retail drug business. Their primary emphasis has been on relocating their stores from shopping centers and business districts into free-standing locations with drive thru facilities. Osco Drugs was sold to CVS, thereby increasing their number of stores in the Chicagoland market. CVS continues to build new stores throughout the city and the suburbs. The new Medicare Drug Program Part D has been both beneficial and deleterious to both major drug stores and big box discounters. Where prices are close, consumers are opting back to their nearby Walgreens, Osco, or CVS because of the cost of gasoline. Where the major big boxes have sharpened their pencils, they are maintaining market share. Only time will tell who will be the winner. Its greatest negative impact has been on buying drugs from Canada, which has declined substantially. Electronics Stores In 2006, following the slow down in computer sales, we are seeing renewed strength in electronics and appliance stores as the economy rebounds and consumers buy into HDTV and flat panel television screens. We expect to see continued sales growth in wi-fi computers, notebooks, PDAs, Blackberrys, cellular telephones with cameras, X Boxes, Hi-Definition televisions, flat screen TVs, and other electronic gadgets. Best Buy, Circuit City, Comp USA, ABT, and Sears continue to be dominant players, along with mail-order retailers Dell, Gateway, CDW, and others. However, all will experience greater competition from Target, Wal-Mart, Office Max, Office Depot, and others. Home Depot, Lowes, and Menards also carry some appliances which places pressure on appliance retailers. Circuit City, which had some sales problems has recovered and is doing better. Best Buy with more stores continues to be the dominant retailer in this category. However, Abt continues to lead the way in single store sales exceeding $350 million. Furniture Stores Furniture is experiencing the shift from conventional furniture stores to big box furniture merchandising. Furniture stores are shifting to either upscale, service-oriented, featuring designer -38-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois goods or they are focusing on limited inventory and quick delivery. Today, the consumer does not want to wait for furniture; they want it now! Thus, the future appears to be with stores that carry a limited merchandise mix that is available every day. Wickes stores converted to this high volume approach following their acquisition. This strategy has been a big success with consumers. Furthermore, we expect to see more existing furniture stores adopt the limited inventory quick delivery approach. Home Improvement Stores Lowes Home Improvement stores continue their proliferation of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Reportedly, Lowes does not intend to match Home Depot store for store. Lowes offers brightly lit stores, good signage, excellent organization and presentation of merchandise, and bright tile floors. Lowes strategy is to focus more on women who make most of the decisions when it comes to remodeling projects. Home Depot had originally focused upon the small contractor and Lowes the do-it-yourself consumer. Home Depot has over 40 stores in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, and continues to add more units where needed. Home Depot improved its stores in anticipation of the entry of Lowes. In our opinion, the stores were more contractor oriented and less female friendly. Home Depot has made several improvements including relocation of the paint department to a more prominent location, the lighting in their stores, shiny concrete floors, self-service checkouts, and the overall organization and presentation of merchandise. The elimination of many of their experienced sales people is having a negative impact upon Home Depot sales. The four Expo Design Centers are apparently performing below expectations. Menards has over 30 stores in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Menards continues to pound price with the save big money at Menard's mantra. Menards has a varied merchandise mix. They also sells many items outside home improvement including snacks, candy, soft drinks, barbeque sauce, socks, toys, and apparel that have a broader appeal. The new prototype stores are approximately 170,000 square feet and are stuffed with merchandise. Menards has very narrow isles in comparison to Home Depot and Lowes. Thus, far, Menards is surviving the competitive nature of the market by going right at its competition. Chicago is a very competitive home improvement market; only time will tell if the market can support three major stores. Restaurant & Quick Service Casual Facilities The Foodservice business improved in 2005 and thus far in 2006. Rising gasoline price have the industry extremely concerned. Highway oriented units like Cracker Barrel have already seen their sales decline as more people are postponing trips. The Quick Service Casual Restaurant segment continues to show the best overall opportunity for long-range gain. They generally serve smaller trade areas. Some of the major players include McDonalds, Burger King, Wendys, Arbys, Subway, Portillos, Quisnos, Baja Fresh, Chipotle, Q Doba, Panera Bread, Potbelly Sandwich Works, Noodles & Company, Corner Bakery, Wild Noodles, McAllisters, and Au Bon Pain, among others. Some of the newest restaurants developed in the Chicago Metropolitan Area include Buffalo Wings Wild, Cameron Mitchells Seafood in Northbrook, Ram & -39-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Restaurant & Brewery in Rosemont, Pete Millers Steakhouse in Wheeling, and the Bucca Restaurant in Orland Park, among many others. Summary In summary, retailing and markets are never static; they are always changing. Some categories change more rapidly than other. Nevertheless, one thing is for certain, change will continue to occur and retailers need to be on top of consumer demands and the aging of the population.
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SECTION VI
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

SUBJECT SITE/LOCATION The Matteson Study Area is located in located in and around Lincoln Mall at the intersection of Lincoln Highway (U.S. Highway 30), Cicero Avenue (Illinois Highway 50) adjacent to Interstate 57. Shopping centers and free-standing retailers are concentrated on either Lincoln Highway or Cicero Avenue in this vicinity. Figure 6.A is an aerial view the intersection. Lincoln Mall is located in the southeast quadrant of Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue. Figure 6.A Aerial View The Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue Intersection Adjacent to the Interstate 57 Interchange Mattson, Illinois
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois ACCESSIBILITY The Subject Area enjoys excellent access. Interstate 57 is a major north-south expressway connecting Chicago with Memphis, Tennessee. It commences at Interstate 94-90 at approximately 99th Street in Chicago and extends southward. Lincoln Highway (U.S. Highway 30) is a major East-West roadway which extends throughout the United States. Cicero Avenue (Illinois Highway 50) is a north-south traffic artery that traverses almost the entire Chicago area. Lincoln Highway generally has four moving lanes and turning lanes at major intersections. The speed limit in Matteson is generally 40 miles per hour. Cicero Avenue in Matteson has four moving lanes and turn lanes at major intersections. TRAFFIC COUNTS Traffic counts on State Highways and the Interstate System are conducted by the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT). Figure 6.B below depicts traffic counts conducted in the Matteson area. The latest data is for 2003. The traffic count data show the significant amount of traffic generated by Lincoln Mall, other Matteson shopping centers, and the big box retailers located nearby. Figure 6.B Traffic Counts for Major State and Federal Roads Illinois Department of Transportation Matteson, Illinois Area
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois The Map shows that Average 24-hour Daily Traffic counts in 2003 on Lincoln Highway (U.S. Highway 30) east of Cicero Avenue near Lincoln Mall amounted to over 42,000 cars. West of Interstate 57, traffic counts declined to 21,500 cars within a 24-hour period. At the junction of Lincoln Highway and Interstate 57 (not shown on Figure 6.B), Lincoln Highway had a traffic count of 33,300 cars east of the interchange and 23,600 cars east of Interstate 57. Cicero Avenue (Illinois Highway 50) south of Lincoln Highway had a 24-hour Average Daily Traffic count of 27,700 cars near the Mall entrance and where the big box retailers are located. North of Lincoln Highway, Cicero Avenue carried an average of 19,200 cars. Traffic counts on Cicero Avenue will rise as more big box stores are added to the street. Interstate 57 recorded 24-hour Average Daily Traffic Counts of 89,300 north of the Interchange with Lincoln Highway and 48,700 cars south of the Interchange. DRIVING TIME ANALYSIS Our normal procedure is to conduct a detailed Driving Time Analysis from the Subject Site in all directions. The Driving Time Analysis assists in the delineation of the Trade Area by simulating the distances a consumer can travel during given time allocations. The Driving Time Analysis shown below was undertaken for 10 and 20 minutes in each direction during non-peak (rush hour) travel periods. Figure 6.C below presents the results. Figure 6.C Driving Time Analysis 10 & 20 Minutes Lincoln Mall Area
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois TRADE AREA DELINEATION Mattesons Trade Area has been delineated on the basis of existing Lincoln Malls Trade Area and nearby big box attraction, accessibility, the road network, the Driving Time Analysis, existing and proposed competition, Lincoln Malls customer distribution, physical and psychological barriers, shopping habits and patterns, dining-out patterns, as well as our experience in evaluating shopping centers and other commercial developments throughout the world. The Trade Area for the Subject Site is depicted in Figure 6.D on the following page. By definition, Trade Areas account for approximately 85 percent of the anticipated business. Because of visitors, businesspersons, people passing through, and others, it is difficult to identify the last 15 percent. Distances traveled and visitor infrequency makes it uneconomic to attempt to define the last 15 percent, as well as prepare accurate demographics. The Trade Area, as defined, represents the geographic area from which most of Mattesons sales will be derived. The Primary Trade Area has been delineated to include the geographic area from which the most frequent shoppers reside. Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the consumer expenditures spent in Matteson originate from the Primary Trade Area. Generally, the Primary Trade Area extends northward to Interstate 80. Orland Park Square Mall and the significant retail concentration there proscribe the Trade Area in that direction. Eastward, the Primary Trade Area extends to an area just beyond Halsted Street where the new big box concentration in Homewood/Glenwood affects Mattesons retail attraction. Southward, the Primary Trade Area extends to include University Park, and westward, the Primary Trade Area extends to 88th Avenue, just east of Frankfort. The Secondary Trade Area has been delineated to include the geographic area indicated in Figure 6.D. The Secondary Trade Area represents the geographic areas from which consumers will originate on a less frequent basis. Approximately 20 to 25 percent of the consumers will be generated from the Secondary Trade Area. The map indicates that the Secondary Trade Area is limited to the north, again, as a result of the Orland Park major retail concentration. To the east, the Secondary trade area extends partially to the Indiana State Line. To the south, the Secondary Trade Area extends to Manteno, and to the west, the Secondary Trade Area extends to Frankfort, Illinois. TRADE AREA MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS The demographic characteristics of the Trade Area were assembled and evaluated. Population, households, average household income, income structure, age structure and other key demographic data have been evaluated for the Primary and Secondary Trade Area segments. Table 6.1 entitled Market Support Factors provides the data.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Table 6.1 MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS Lincoln Mall Area Trade Area
Primary Trade Area Number Population Change
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2005 Projection 2010 Projection 2015 Projection Households Change 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2005 Projection 2010 Projection 2015 Projection Population by Race (2005) White Black Asian Native American Hawaiian / Pacific Islander Two or More Other Race Total Hispanic Not Hispanic Households by Tenure (2005) Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Vacant Total Population by Gender (2005) Male Female Total Marital Status (2005) Now Married Separated Divorced Never Married Widowed Total 58,190 5,545 12,219 33,650 7,748 117,352 49.60% 4.70% 10.40% 28.70% 6.60% 100.00% 49,682 3,417 7,646 23,093 5,614 89,452 52.20% 4.30% 9.60% 27.40% 6.50% 100.00% 107,872 8,962 19,865 56,743 13,362 206,804 52.16% 4.33% 9.61% 27.44% 6.46% 100.00% 72,080 79,455 151,535 47.60% 52.40% 100.00% 55,584 59,708 115,292 47.80% 52.20% 100.00% 127,664 139,163 266,827 47.85% 52.15% 100.00% 40,686 11,321 5,476 57,483 70.80% 19.70% 9.50% 100.00% 31,612 7,179 3,509 42,300 72.50% 18.50% 9.00% 100.00% 72,298 18,500 8,985 99,783 72.46% 18.54% 9.00% 100.00% 79,846 59,770 2,952 272 34 3,609 5,052 151,535 15,810 135,725 52.70% 39.40% 1.90% 0.20% 0.00% 2.40% 3.30% 100.00% 10.40% 89.60% 82,377 25,635 1,712 138 30 2,456 2,944 115,292 9,609 105,683 71.45% 22.23% 1.48% 0.12% 0.03% 2.13% 2.55% 100.00% 9.50% 90.50% 162,223 85,405 4,664 410 64 6,065 7,996 266,827 25,419 241,408 60.80% 32.01% 1.75% 0.15% 0.02% 2.27% 3.00% 100.00% 9.53% 90.47% 44,332 46,439 51,762 52,006 52,989 55,361 4.80% 11.50% 0.50% 0.00% 4.48% 30,523 32,908 37,720 38,792 39,880 41,297 7.81% 14.62% 2.84% 2.80% 6.22% 74,855 79,347 89,482 90,798 91,869 96,657 6.00% 12.77% 1.47% 1.18% 5.21% 134,767 133,182 143,789 151,534 158,630 164,975 -1.20% 8.00% 5.40% 4.70% 4.00% 96,505 97,530 106,506 115,293 123,890 131,323 1.06% 9.20% 8.25% 7.46% 6.00% 231,272 230,712 250,295 266,827 282,520 296,300 -0.24% 8.49% 6.61% 5.88% 4.88%
Total Trade Area

Percent Change
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Table 6.1 Continued MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS Lincoln Mall Area Trade Area
Primary Trade Area Number Households by Income (2005)
Less Than $10,000 $10,000-$14,999 $15,000-$19,999 $20,000-$24,999 $25,000-$29,999 $30,000-$34,999 $35,000-$39,999 $40,000-$49,999 $50,000-$59,999 $60,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000-$124,999 $125,000-$149,999 $150,000-$199,999 $200,000-$249,999 $250,000-$499,999 $500,000+ Total Median Household Income Average Household Income Average Family Income 3,135 1,834 2,049 2,231 2,289 2,526 2,658 5,283 4,728 6,244 7,979 5,042 2,505 1,805 606 667 426 52,007 6.00% 3.50% 3.90% 4.30% 4.40% 4.90% 5.10% 10.20% 9.10% 12.00% 15.30% 9.70% 4.80% 3.50% 1.20% 1.30% 0.80% 100.00% $58,457 $72,452 $83,373 10,788 11,333 12,061 10,929 8,508 8,329 9,752 11,361 12,148 12,129 11,200 9,074 6,804 5,066 4,141 3,463 2,414 2,035 151,535 7.10% 7.50% 8.00% 7.20% 5.60% 5.50% 6.40% 7.50% 8.00% 8.00% 7.40% 6.00% 4.50% 3.30% 2.70% 2.30% 1.60% 1.30% 100.00% 7,819 8,719 9,303 8,369 6,301 5,938 6,914 8,400 9,135 9,335 8,411 7,159 5,665 4,239 3,220 2,607 2,021 1,738 115,293 1,916 1,393 1,581 1,590 1,614 1,827 1,807 3,761 3,545 4,890 6,632 3,906 1,908 1,353 399 371 297 38,790 4.94% 3.59% 4.08% 4.10% 4.16% 4.71% 4.66% 9.70% 9.14% 12.61% 17.10% 10.07% 4.92% 3.49% 1.03% 0.96% 0.77% 100.00% $59,555 $74,404 $85,244 6.78% 7.56% 8.07% 7.26% 5.47% 5.15% 6.00% 7.29% 7.92% 8.10% 7.30% 6.21% 4.91% 3.68% 2.79% 2.26% 1.75% 1.51% 100.00% 18,607 20,052 21,364 19,298 14,809 14,267 16,666 19,761 21,283 21,464 19,611 16,233 12,469 9,305 7,361 6,070 4,435 3,773 266,828 5,051 3,227 3,630 3,821 3,903 4,353 4,465 9,044 8,273 11,134 14,611 8,948 4,413 3,158 1,005 1,038 723 90,797 5.56% 3.60% 4.00% 4.20% 4.30% 4.80% 4.90% 10.00% 9.10% 12.30% 16.10% 9.90% 4.90% 3.50% 1.10% 1.10% 0.80% 100.00%
Total Trade Area

Percent Change
$58,634 $72,603 $84,289

7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 7.20% 5.60% 5.30% 6.20% 7.40% 8.00% 8.00% 7.30% 6.10% 4.70% 3.50% 2.80% 2.30% 1.70% 1.40% 100.00%
Total Population (2005)

Age 0-4 Age 5-9 Age 10-14 Age 15-19 Age 20-24 Age 25-29 Age 30-34 Age 35-39 Age 40-44 Age 45-49 Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74 Age 75-79 Age 80-84 Age 85+ Total
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois According to the data presented in Table 6.1, the Primary Trade Area contains a population of 151,534 persons in 52,006 households. By 2010, the population is forecast to increase to 158,630 persons in 52,989 households and by 2015, the population is forecast to 164,975. The average annual household income is estimated at $72,452 within the Primary Trade Area. Median household income is currently estimated at $58,456. The median age is estimated at 38.64 years. The ethnic characteristics are as follows: White 52.7 percent, Black 39.4 percent, and American Indian 0.20 percent. Hispanic accounts for 10.4 percent. Owner occupied households accounted for 70.8 percent, while renter occupied households accounted for 9.50 percent. The balance were vacant, mainly the result of new construction. Female population accounts for approximately 52.4 percent of the population, while Males account for 47.6 percent. The Secondary Trade Area contains a population of 115,293 persons in 38,792 households. The population is forecast to 123,890 persons by 2010 and 131,323 persons by 2015. The median age is moderately younger than the Primary Trade Area amounting to an estimated 36.2 years. The ethnic characteristics are as follows: 71.4 percent White, 22.2 percent Black, 1.48 Asian, and 0.2 percent Native American. Hispanic accounts for approximately 9.5 percent. The average annual household income within the Secondary Trade Area is slightly higher than the Primary Trade Area amounting to an estimated $74,404 while the median household income amounts to an estimated $59,555. Owner occupied households amount to approximately 72.5 percent, while renter occupied account for 18.5 percent. Vacant accounted for approximately 9.0 percent. Again, vacant housing is a combination of house for sale and newly constructed housing. Female population accounts for 52.2 percent and Male population accounts for 47.8 percent. The Total Trade Area contains an estimated population of 266,827 persons in 90,798 households. By 2010, the population within the Total Trade Area is forecast to rise to 282,520 persons in 91,869 households, and by 2015 the population is forecast to rise to 296,300 persons in 96,657 households. The median age is 37.1 years. The ethnic characteristics for the Total Trade Area are 60.89 percent White, 32.0 percent Black, 1.75 Asian and 0.15 percent Native American The average household income amounts to an estimated $72,603 while median household income amounts to an estimated $58,634. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT The competitive retail concentrations located both in and outside of the delineated Trade Area of the Village of Matteson are discussed in the following paragraphs. Many of these facilities provide some level of direct and indirect competition to the Subject Site. The primary competitive mall and retail concentration to Matteson is Orland Square Mall and other Orland Park centers and major big box stores. Almost every major retailer is represented in the Orland Park area. -48-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois The newest major retail concentration is in Homewood/Glenwood area south of the interchange with Halsted Street and Interstate 80 and 294, the Illinois Tollway around the Chicago area. Table 6.2 on the following pages presents the Competitive Retail Inventory. The table highlights the name of the shopping center, location, size, approximate occupancy rate, major anchors, and anchor sizes, where available. The major shopping centers and freestanding retailers directly influencing the Subject Sites are briefly discussed in the following paragraphs. Orland Park Orland Square Mall is located approximately 10 miles north-northwest of Matteson. The Mall has over 1,200,000 square feet and features department stores operated by Marshall Field (Macys), Carson Pirie Scott & Company, Sears, and J.C. Penney. Figure 6.E on the following page shows a 10-Mile radius from Lincoln Mall and the relationship to Orland Square Mall in Orland Park and River Oaks Mall in Calumet City. Orland Square Mall is approximately 10 miles and River Oaks Mall is approximately 13 miles as the crow flies. The base map depicts average household income. The darker the color green, the higher the income, conversely, the lighter the color to yellow, the lower the income. In 2005, retailers in Orland Park captured retail sales exceeding $1.777 billion, up from $1.709 billion in 2004. General Merchandise sales in 2005 amounted to $258.2 million, down from $290.4 million in 2004, for a decrease of $32.2 million. Orland Park contains over 4,000,000 square feet of retail space. Almost all of the major big box general merchandise retailers are located in Orland Park, either on LaGrange Road (U.S. 45) or on 159th Street (U.S. 6). Costco is expected to develop a unit on the southwest quadrant of LaGrange Road and 159th Street. Meijers is planning a unit at 143rd and Bell in Homer Glen. Major big boxes located in Orland Park include Wal-Mart, Target Greatland, Kohls, Value City, Best Buy, Circuit City, Home Depot, Menards, Sports Authority, Wickes Furniture, World Market, DSW Shoes, Bed Bath & Beyond, Marshalls, Office Depot, Office Max, Value City Furniture, Barnes & Noble, Borders, Stein Mart, Dick Sporting Goods, Toys R Us, Michaels, Shoe Carnival, David Bridal, Cub Foods, and others. Lowes will be opening its new store shortly. Wal-Mart is apparently searching for a location for a Supercenter in this area.
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Table 6.2 COMPETITIVE RETAIL FACILITIES TO MATTESON RETAIL CONCENTRATIONS

Suburb Glenwood Glenwood Glenwood Richton Park Olympia Fields Olympia Fields Homewood Homewood Homewood Homewood Homewood Homewood Homewood Homewood Orland Park Orland Park Orland Park Orland Park Monee Monee Monee Chicago Heights Chicago Heights Chicago Heights Chicago Heights Park Forest Park Forest Country Club Hills Tinley Park Tinley Park Tinley Park Frankfort Frankfort Frankfort Frankfort Flossmoor Mokena Mokena Mokena Crestwood Name Glenwood Plaza The Market Place at Glenwood Wal-Mart Supercenter Governor's Plaza Olympia Corners Olympia Square Homewood Square Glenwood Plaza Location 18301-18451 S. Halsted St 18901-19001 S. Halsted St Halsted St. & Holbrook Governor's Highway & Sauk Trail Lincoln Highway & Rockwell St Governors Highway & Vollmer Rd Halsted St & Ridge Rd 184th & Halsted St. 3055 W. 183rd St 17620 S. Halsted St. 17750-17856 S. Halsted St 17805 S. Halsted 17920-17932 S. Halsted St 18300 Governor's Highway 145th & LaGrange Rd 157th & LaGrange Rd. 159th & LaGrange Rd. 143rd & LaGrange Rd. 5500-5599 W. Monee Manhattan Rd 19031 S U.S. 45 19081 S. U.S. 45 Lincoln Highway & Western Ave. Joe Orr Rd. & Dixie Hwy 160 Joe Orr Rd 77-199 Joe Orr Rd 94-138 Orchard Dr. Western Ave. & Norwood Blvd. 4005 W. 167th Street 17117 S Harlem Ave Harlem Ave & 191st St Harlem Ave & 159th St. 19983 U.S. 45 U.S. 30 & Wolf Rd U.S. 45 & Laporte Rd 326 U.S. 45 Vollmer Rd & Governor's Hwy 19801 U.S. 45 19810-19850 S. U.S. 45 9620-9630 Willow Lane 191st & U.S. 45 Cicero Avenue & Cal Sag Rd Size 200,000 Menard's 50,000 203,000 Wal-Mart Supercenter 128,700 Dollar General 114,000 Jewel/Osco 53,000 Helix Camera, Tuesday Morning, 240,000 224,000 85,000 111,000 100,000 200,000 232,000 96,000 1,200,000 200,000 135,000 125,000 55,000 255,000 80,000 101,400 Dominick's 124,000 Small Stores 76,000 124,000 227,600 Sterk's Supermarket 150,000 Family Dollar Store 203,000 Wal-Mart Supercenter 104,000 Jewel 300,000 Super Target, Best Buy, Michael's, Dicks Sporting Goods 140,000 Home Depot 110,000 204,300 128,000 115,000 53,000 Target, Home Depot, Best Buy, Bed Bath & Beyond, T.J. Maxx Harlem Furniture Kohl's Target, Menard's Target, Home Depot, Office Max Major Retail Tenants
Park Place Plaza Washington Park Plaza Cherry Creek Orland Square Mall Costco Orland Crossing
Marshall Field, Carson's, Sears, Penney's Lowe's, Toms Price Currently planned Lifestyle Center
Hickory Creek Centre
Lincoln Crossing Olympia Plaza
Orchard Park Plaza Norwood Square Wal-Mart Supercenter Tinley Park Commons Brookside Marketplace Home Depot Frankfort Town Center Prairie Crossing Hickory Creek Marketplace Frankfort Crossing Flossmoor Commons Southwest Sports Willow Lane Plaza Hickodry Creek Centre Crestwood Plaza
Kohl's, Sportmart, Office Depot, Bed Bath & Beyond Small stores Jewel, Ace Hardware Small Stores
80,000 52,000 Sapporo Japanese Steakhouse 72,000 255,000 800,000 Target, Kohl's, Menard's, Best Buy, T.J. Maxx, Office Max, Joann Fabrics & a new Wal-Mart Supercenter
Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. and numorous shopping center inventories
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Figure 6.E 10 Mile Radius Map Lincoln Mall Matteson, Illinois
Orland Crossing is a small lifestyle center on LaGrange Road at 143rd Street. The center currently contains Chicos, Coldwater Creek, Aerosoles, Aveda, Talbots, Ann Taylor, Starbucks, P. F. Changs, Francescas, White House/ Black Market, Eden Spa, Omaha Steaks, Collections, ECCO, and others. At the time of this report preparation, there were numerous vacancies. However, it appears that the development will gain popularity especially is other restaurants and popular chain retailers are added. Homewood/Glenwood A new collection of big box stores has been developed on both sides of Halsted Street south of the Interstate 80 Interchange. This retail concentration contains over 850,000 square feet. Major -51-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois stores located here include Kohls, Target, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Menards, Best Buy, Circuit City, Bed Bath & Beyond, and others. Homewood total 2005 retail sales amounted to $377.2 million, of which $73.5 million was in General Merchandise. Glenwood had total retail sales of $73.3 million in 2005 Tinley Park Tinley Parks, located approximately five and one-half miles north of Matteson, has primarily big box stores at major intersections. These include Sams Club and Super K at 161st Street and Harlem; the retail concentration at Harlem Avenue and 167th Street; and the new Super Target with 175,000 square feet and Best Buy with 50,000 square feet at Harlem Avenue and 191st Street. Home Depot is located at 159th Street and Harlem Avenue along with other retailers at the intersection including Cub Foods, Value City, Staples, and Hobby Lobby. Tinley Parks retail sales in 2005 amounted to $870.5 million, of which $128 million was in General Merchandise. Automobile sales accounted for $403.7 million, or close to half of the total retail sales. Crestwood The retail concentration in Crestwood is in and around Crestwood Plaza at Cicero Avenue and Cal Sag Road. The area contains Target, Kohls, Menards, Best Buy, T.J. Maxx, Office Max, and numerous other stores. Wal-Mart is located nearby. The area has over 800,000 square feet of big box and retail space. Retail sales in Crestwood in 2005 amounted to $370.4 million. The General Merchandise category captured sales of $91.5 million. This was split by at least three major stores; Target, Kohls, Kmart, and Wal-Mart. The new Wal-Mart Supercenter will increase sales in Crestwood. Country Club Hills A new Wal-Mart Supercenter has been opened on 167th Street near Crawford Avenue with approximately 200,000 square feet. Calumet City River Oaks Mall Northeast of Matteson, the largest retail concentration is around the River Oaks Mall at 159th Street and Torrance Avenue in Calumet City. River Oaks contains department stores operated by Marshall Field, Carsons, Sears, and Penneys. Again, most major big box stores are located in the vicinity of the mall. The Mall contains over 1,200,000 square feet. Big boxes and other retailers add another 3,000,000 square feet of retail space.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois PLANNED AND PROPOSED SHOPPING CENTERS Our staff investigated planned and proposed shopping centers and freestanding retailers that may influence the Subject Properties. There are some small shopping centers and freestanding retailers proposed or planned within the delineated Trade Area. They are discussed in the following paragraphs. A shopping center is proposed in Matteson at Lincoln Highway and Harlem which will have approximately 200,000+ square feet of retail space. No tenants have been announced. Target is apparently planning to build a new store in Lincoln Malls new development area which will replace their existing store further south on Cicero Avenue. Wal-Mart is considering a Supercenter in Matteson to replace their existing store. The new store would be south of the Mall on the east side of Cicero Avenue. We have considered this proposal in our analysis. Menards has indicated that they would like a larger store and is apparently considering developing a new store south of the new Wal-Mart Supercenter. Penneys is planning on developing numerous new prototype stores in the Chicago area. We expect them to consider the Matteson or Homewood areas We have considered all of the above in our analysis. RETAIL EXPENDITURE PATTERNS The analysis thus far has brought into focus the factors which directly and indirectly affect the retail market potential and the attraction of consumer dollars to Lincoln Mall and the surrounding retail concentration, as opposed to competitive complexes. The Trade Area has been delineated and the demographics characteristics of the Trade Area segments have been analyzed. Next, per capita expenditures by retail category have been calculated utilizing the Economic Census of Retail Trade 1997 and 2002, the Economic Census of Accommodations and Foodservice 1997 and 2002, and the Illinois Department of Revenue annual Sales Tax Receipts data by major retail categories for incorporated communities for 2003, 2004, and 2005. Finally, all of the factors which have an impact on the market potential of the Subject Sites have been analyzed including competition, proposed facilities, accessibility, traffic counts, road patterns, retail sales trends, spending patterns, and local development activity. The combined 2002 Economic Census of Retail Trade and Accommodations and Foodservice, assembled by the United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, are the principal sources of retail sales and foodservice revenue data. The Economic Census is compiled and published every five years. Table 6.3 on the following pages presents the 2002 retail sales data for Cook County, the City of Chicago, and Matteson.
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2002 Retail Sales Cook County, City of Chicago, and Matteson
Retail Categories Retail trade and Accommodation and food service Retail trade Motor vehicle and parts dealers Automobile dealers New car dealers Used car dealers Other motor vehicle dealers Recreational vehicle dealers Recreational vehicle dealers Motorcycle, boat, and other motor vehicle dealers Automotive parts, accessories, and tire stores Automotive parts and accessories stores Tire dealers Furniture and home furnishings stores Furniture stores Furniture stores Furniture stores Home furnishings stores Floor covering stores Floor covering stores Other home furnishings stores Window treatment stores All other home furnishings stores Electronics and appliance stores Electronics and appliance stores Appliance, television, and other electronic stores Household appliance stores Radio, television, and other electronics stores Computer and software stores Computer and software stores Camera and photographic supplies stores Counties - 2002 Retail Sales Cook City of County Chicago Matteson $57,537,998,000 $21,091,631,000 $789,034,000 $50,441,449,000 $17,303,363,000 $749,837,000 $11,900,021,000 $2,768,130,000 $296,558,000 $11,006,143,000 $2,383,772,000 $289,488,000 $10,440,842,000 $2,126,973,000 $289,488,000 $565,301,000 $256,799,000 D $219,712,000 $21,123,000 $21,123,000 $198,589,000 $764,166,000 $545,104,000 $219,062,000 $1,750,046,000 $864,108,000 $864,108,000 $885,938,000 $415,099,000 $470,839,000 $30,047,000 $440,792,000 $1,786,140,000 $1,786,140,000 $1,454,645,000 $378,289,000 $1,076,356,000 $262,089,000 $69,406,000 $74,433,000 D
$74,433,000 $309,925,000 $242,218,000 $67,707,000 $593,905,000 $287,267,000
D $7,070,000 D D $7,262,000 $2,655,000 D $4,607,000 D D D D $43,513,000 D D D D D D D
$306,638,000 $114,508,000 $192,130,000 $9,299,000 $182,831,000 $418,620,000 $250,303,000 $23,856,000 $226,447,000 $127,315,000 $41,002,000
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Table 6.3 (Continued)
2002 Retail Sales Cook County, City of Chicago, & Matteson
Counties - 2002 Retail Sales Retail Categories Cook County
$3,521,194,000 $3,349,255,000 D D $336,273,000 $1,307,759,000 $172,659,000 $134,364,000 $8,303,608,000 $7,222,910,000 $6,820,509,000 $402,401,000 $426,280,000 $654,418,000 $3,416,300,000 $2,918,588,000 $197,605,000 $149,847,000 $150,260,000 $2,338,051,000 $1,866,954,000 $451,097,000 $4,022,561,000 $2,870,385,000 $217,118,000 $798,570,000 $169,930,000 $1,420,649,000 $77,668,000 $186,450,000 $604,570,000 $26,087,000 $52,236,000 $20,891,000 $293,627,000 $211,729,000
City of Chicago
$1,141,831,000 $1,094,004,000 D D $121,427,000 $465,656,000 $47,827,000 D $3,585,140,000 $2,998,911,000 $2,784,898,000 $214,013,000 $211,128,000 $375,101,000 $1,643,751,000 $1,468,401,000 $64,246,000 $55,440,000 $55,664,000 $667,821,000 $512,185,000 $155,636,000 $1,846,512,000 $1,285,415,000 $111,203,000 $395,390,000 $43,356,000 $615,649,000 $48,548,000 $71,269,000 $297,539,000 $17,553,000 $27,631,000 $8,372,000 $128,838,000 $115,145,000
Matteson
D D D D D D D D $34,067,000 D D D D D $4,521,000 D $7,808,000 $2,496,000 D $3,881,000 D D $52,379,000 $36,696,000 $6,138,000 D D D D $3,292,000 $11,542,000 D D D D $6,885,000
Building material and garden equipment and supply stores Building material and supply dealers Home centers Paint and wallpaper stores Hardware stores Other building material dealers Lawn and garden equipment and supply stores Nursery, garden center, and farm supply stores Food and beverage stores Grocery stores Supermarkets and other grocery stores Convenience stores Specialty food stores Beer, wine, and liquor stores Health and personal care stores Pharmacies and drug stores Cosmetics, beauty supplies, and perfume stores Optical goods stores Other health and personal care stores Gasoline Stations Gasoline stations with convenience stores Other gasoline stations Clothing and clothing accessories stores Clothing stores Men's clothing stores Women's clothing Children's and infant's clothing Family clothing stores Clothing accessories stores Other clothing stores Shoe stores Men's shoe stores Women's shoe stores Children's and juveniles shoe stores Family shoe stores Athletic footwear stores
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Retail Categories Jewelry stores Luggage stores Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores Sporting goods stores General-line sporting goods stores Specialty-line sporting goods stores Hobby, toy, and game stores Sewing, needlework, and piece goods stores Musical instrument and supplies stores Book, periodical, and music stores Book stores and news dealers Book stores general Specialty book stores College book stores Prerecorded tape, compact disc. and record stores General merchandise stores Department stores Discount department stores Other general merchandise stores Warehouse clubs and supercenters All other general merchandise stores Variety stores Miscellaneous retail stores Florists Office supplies, stationery, and gift shops Office supplies and stationery stores Gift, novelty, and souvenir stores Used merchandise stores Pet and pet supply stores Art dealers All other miscellaneous stores Nonstore retailers Electronic shopping and mail-order houses Vending machine operators Direct selling establishments Counties - 2002 Retail Sales Cook City of County Chicago Matteson $519,042,000 $245,703,000 $4,141,000 $28,564,000 $17,855,000 D $1,375,209,000 $361,285,000 $194,956,000 $166,329,000 $353,658,000 $60,135,000 $102,274,000 $497,857,000 $352,540,000 $317,901,000 $24,442,000 $68,995,000 $145,317,000 $6,382,198,000 $2,006,168,000 $2,690,993,000 $1,685,037,000 $1,331,883,000 $353,154,000 $159,769,000 $1,465,751,000 $124,943,000 $588,356,000 $298,559,000 $289,797,000 $167,675,000 $162,999,000 $110,307,000 $307,961,000 $4,089,650,000 $3,309,120,000 $221,667,000 $558,863,000 $555,258,000 $92,402,000 $43,080,000 $49,322,000 $124,662,000 $15,229,000 $39,295,000 $283,670,000 $199,913,000 $172,036,000 $11,169,000 $53,503,000 $83,757,000 $1,445,500,000 $770,511,000 $365,061,000 $309,928,000 D D $87,956,000 $655,094,000 $59,106,000 $211,298,000 $89,177,000 $122,121,000 $125,962,000 $39,716,000 $97,000,000 $122,012,000 $1,981,801,000 $1,777,685,000 $28,223,000 $175,893,000 $21,530,000 D D D D D D $5,768,000 D D D D D $209,131,000 D $98,012,000 D D $3,406,000 D D D $11,274,000 D D D D D D D D D D
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Retail Categories Accommodation and food services Accommodations Food services and drinking places Full-service restaurants Limited-service eating places Limited service restaurants Cafeterias, buffets, and grill buffets Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars Special food services Drinking places Counties - 2002 Retail Sales Cook City of County Chicago Matteson
$7,096,549,000 $2,945,075,000 $2,668,493,000 $2,199,427,000 $58,772,000 $410,294,000 $1,036,943,000 $446,038,000
$3,788,268,000 $1,529,368,000 $1,330,919,000 $1,094,551,000 $19,473,000 $216,895,000 $602,333,000 $325,648,000
$39,197,000 D $15,643,000 D D D D D
Source: Economic Census of Retail Trade & Foodservice, 2002 and Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. 2006
According to the 2002 Economic Census, Cook Countys total retail sales amounted to over $50.4 billion. Foodservice amounted to 7.1 billion. Thus, the combined retail sales and foodservice sales in 2002 amounted to $57.5 billion. General Merchandise sales in Cook County amounted to $6.4 billion in 2002, while Building Materials stores (Home Improvement) recorded sales of over $3.5 billion. Furniture and Home Furnishing stores in Cook County and Electronics and Appliance stores both had sales of $1.8 billion. The 2002 Food Store category amounted to $8.3 billion, while the Foodservice category recorded $7.1 billion in sales. The Clothing & Clothing Accessories stores had sales of $4.0 billion in sales, while Health & Personal Care had sales of $3.4 billion. The Illinois Department of Revenue Sales Tax Receipts data for 2003, 2004, and 2005 is the most current retail sales data. All of these sources were utilized to determine spending patterns the retail market potential of the subject site. The data in Table 6.4 show that the counties that make up the Chicago Metropolitan Area had 2003 retail sales of $90.7 billion and rose to $98.4 billion in 2005. Cook County, with the City of Chicago is the largest county in retail sales with 2003 sales of $53.3 rising to $56.5 billion in 2005. These data were contrasted with the more recent Illinois Department of Revenue Sales Tax Receipt data by retail category for 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. From these sales data, per capita expenditures for individual retail categories were determined.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Table 6.4 Retail Sales by County Chicago Metropolitan Area 2003-2005
Civil Subdivision Chicago Cook (less Chicago) Du Page County Kane County Lake County McHenry County Will County 2003 $19,290,577,500 $34,018,944,500 $15,521,817,000 $4,808,083,000 $9,317,143,000 $2,770,994,000 $4,957,312,000 2004 $19,936,962,195 $34,718,041,000 $16,173,799,000 $5,216,607,000 $9,756,173,000 $2,962,541,000 $5,450,038,000 2005 $20,783,788,700 $35,674,038,500 $16,831,408,300 $5,715,391,955 $10,207,660,000 $3,134,220,800 $6,056,018,000 Difference $846,826,505 $955,997,500 $657,609,300 $498,784,955 $451,487,000 $171,679,800 $605,980,000
Totals $90,684,871,000 $94,214,163,199 $98,402,526,255 $4,188,365,060 Source: State of Illinois Department of Revenue and Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. 2003, 2004, and 2005
Table 6.5 presents Mattesons retail sales for 2002 through 2005 by major retail category. Overall, the data show that Mattesons retail sales had been rising slowly from 2002 when Total Retail Sales stood at $749.8 million, until they declined slightly in 2005 to $804.7 million. The primary decrease was in the General Merchandise category which includes department stores and big box general merchandise stores. This category has been declining since reaching its high in 2004 at $212.6 million to $197.4 million in 2005. Mattesons decline in 2002 amounted to -$15.2 million. Matteson is not alone in General Merchandise decline. Orland Park saw its General Merchandise sales decline in 2005 by -$32.2 million, much larger than Matteson. Table 6.5
MATTESON RETAIL & FOODSERVICE SALES 2002 - 2005
Retail Category Total Retail Sales General Merchandise Food Drinking & Eating Apparel & Accessories Furniture & Appliances Home Improvement Automotive Category Drugs & Miscellaneous 2002 $749,837,000 $209,131,000 $34,067,000 $39,197,000 $52,379,000 $50,775,000 $59,537,000 $296,558,000 $45,359,000 2003 $789,948,000 $210,696,000 $44,154,000 $40,653,000 $43,089,000 $49,546,400 $58,429,000 $280,086,000 $51,670,000 2004 $804,790,500 $212,595,900 $43,826,000 $44,463,000 $49,434,700 $47,245,000 $63,619,300 $276,242,000 $55,253,500 2005 $804,696,000 $197,379,100 $43,368,500 $44,920,000 $47,377,000 $45,077,200 $62,921,200 $285,740,900 $65,775,000 Change -$94,500 -$15,216,800 -$457,500 $457,000 -$2,057,700 -$2,167,800 -$698,100 $9,498,900 $10,521,500
Source: United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, Economic Census of Retail Trade and Foodservice, 2002 and the Illinois Department of Revenue, Sales Tax Receipts, 2003 - 2005
The Drugs and Miscellaneous category had an increase from 2004 to 2005 of $10.5 million to total sales of $65.8 million. Sales have been increasing steadily in this category. The Automotive category increased by $9.5 million to sales of $285.7 million from 2004 sales of $276.2 million. Sales in 2002 Automotive sales were $296.6 million. The Eating & Drinking -58-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois category saw an increase of almost a half of million dollars from 2004 to 2005. Sales in this category in 2002 amounted to $39.2 million; in 2005 they stood at $44.9 million. In the Food Store category, since 2003, sales have remained fairly constant at between $43 million and $44 million. The Apparel & Accessories category has declined from $59.5 million in 2002 to $47.4 million. Sales in 2004 were $49.4 million. The Furniture & Appliance category has varied from its current level of $45.1 million to a high of $50.1 million in 2002. The Home Improvement category declined slightly in 2005 to $62.9 million from $63.6 million in 2004. We have analyzed the changes in retail sales by retail category for Matteson, the surrounding suburbs, Cook County, and the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Next, it was necessary to forecast these expenditures for the projections years. These forecasts were accomplished several ways. First, household income data were evaluated. Since consumers tend to spend fairly consistent percentages of their household income for specific types of goods and services, household income dynamics were analyzed. The income composition also provided insight into the expenditures within individual retail categories. Next, we computed Per Capita Retail Expenditures by major retail categories for Cook County, the Metropolitan Area, and Matteson for 2005. Finally, we compared expenditures in various segments of the Chicago area to see how the data compared by income variations. Finally, we established per capita expenditures which represent the characteristics of the Matteson Trade Area including income, household size, occupation, spending dynamics, and other factors. Table 6.6 on the following page presents the per capita expenditures by retail category in each segment of the Trade Area for 2006, 2010, and 2015, respectively. The per capita expenditures were then applied to the estimated population within the respective Trade Area Segments to compute the total retail expenditure potential within each segment of the Trade Area. Although many of our judgments are necessarily subjective, they are based upon recognized techniques and methodology, understood and accepted by shopping center developers and retailers across the country. Table 6.7 on Page 61 presents the total retail expenditure potential for 2006, 2010, and 2015 in each individual retail category for the respective Trade Area Segments. Application of the Per Capita Expenditures by major retail category, to the population of each Trade Area segment, provides estimates of retail expenditures. The figures represent the retail expenditure potential by retail categories for which the Subject Area would be competing.
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Per Capita Retail Expenditures by Retail Category 2006, 2010, and 2015
Retail Category Home Improvement General Merchandise Food Stores Apparel and Accessories Furniture & Home Furnishings Electronics & Appliances Eating & Drinking Places Miscellaneous Retail Stores Drug Stores Sporting Goods Stores Book Stores Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. Primary Trade Area 2006 2010 $1,107 $1,151 $1,975 $1,705 $932 $618 $666 $1,440 $1,534 $618 $263 $122 $2,173 $1,771 $983 $643 $739 $1,584 $1,672 $649 $279 $133 2015 $1,197 $2,390 $1,860 $1,032 $668 $821 $1,774 $1,801 $681 $294 $144 Secondary Trade Area 2006 2010 2015 $1,115 $1,160 $1,218 $1,989 $1,733 $947 $622 $673 $1,453 $1,545 $626 $271 $125 $2,188 $1,785 $975 $647 $747 $1,592 $1,691 $657 $286 $136 $2,407 $1,839 $989 $675 $829 $1,789 $1,835 $690 $299 $147
The next step involved computing Mattesons market penetration in contrast to competitive shopping complexes. MARKET PENETRATION Market penetration for a shopping center, retailer, or restaurant is the level of market share that the facility is capturing or expected to capture of Personal Consumption Expenditures within a defined Trade Area. Mattesons Lincoln Mall areas market penetration was computed in order to see how well the existing retailers are performing in relation to the total market potential. The market penetration and sales volume computations are also based upon a definitive analysis of the competitive retail concentrations within the Trade Area. Table 6.8 on Page 62 presents Mattesons market penetration in 2005 and our estimates of sales volumes by retail category by Trade Area segment for 2010 and 2015. The table indicates the market potential for additional retail and restaurants facilities in Matteson at or near the intersection of Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue. The Table 6.8 indicates that Mattesons current overall market penetration is approximately 21.7 percent, which is higher that we usually find for a Chicagoland suburban area. Usually, market penetration levels are between 12 to 15 percent. The potential expenditures for which Matteson is competing are estimated at $2.345 billion; Matteson is capturing retail sales of an estimated $511.9 million. -60-
TABLE 6.7 MATTESON'S ESTIMATED RETAIL EXPENDITUES BY RETAIL CATEGORY 2006, 2010, and 2015 Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area 2006 2010 2115 2006 2010 $167,748,138 $299,279,650 $258,365,470 $141,229,688 $93,648,012 $100,921,644 $218,208,960 $166,687,400 $93,648,012 $39,853,442 $18,487,148 $182,627,546 $344,623,675 $280,933,730 $155,933,290 $101,954,674 $117,268,814 $251,269,920 $186,707,510 $102,935,007 $44,257,770 $21,097,790 $198,479,198 $396,144,078 $308,253,884 $171,097,441 $110,804,105 $136,025,673 $294,085,693 $208,766,562 $112,945,198 $48,735,792 $23,870,592 $128,551,695 $229,317,777 $199,802,769 $109,182,471 $71,712,246 $77,592,189 $167,520,729 $134,892,810 $72,173,418 $31,244,403 $14,411,625 $143,662,844 $271,058,931 $221,142,411 $120,843,545 $80,156,830 $92,549,547 $197,232,880 $155,097,891 $81,432,897 $35,432,540 $16,849,040
Retail Category Home Improvement General Merchandise Food Stores Apparel Furniture and Home Furnishings Electronics & Appliances Eating & Drinking Places Miscellaneous Retail Stores Drug Stores Sporting Goods Stores & Bicycle Shops Book Stores
Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc., 2006
2015
2006 $296,299,833 $528,597,427 $458,168,239 $250,412,159 $165,360,258 $178,513,833 $385,729,689 $301,580,210 $165,821,430 $71,097,845 $32,898,773
Total Trade Area 2010 $326,290,390 $615,682,606 $502,076,141 $276,776,835 $182,111,504 $209,818,361 $448,502,800 $341,805,401 $184,367,904 $79,690,310 $37,946,830
2015 $356,113,193 $707,726,199 $546,280,427 $299,138,326 $198,192,980 $243,378,479 $525,698,578 $382,189,201 $202,297,410 $87,445,827 $42,901,947
$157,633,995 $311,582,121 $238,026,542 $128,040,885 $87,388,875 $107,352,805 $231,612,885 $173,422,640 $89,352,212 $38,710,035 $19,031,355
Table 6.8
Estimated Retail Expenditures, Market Penetration, and Matteson Estimated Retail Sal 2006, 2010, and 2015 Retail Category 2006 Home Improvemen Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area General Merchandise Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Food Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Apparel & Accessories Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Furniture & Home Furnishing Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Electronics & Appliances Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Eating & Drinking Places Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area
1. Miscellaneous Retail Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Drug Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Sporting Goods Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area Book Stores Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Total Trade Area
Retail Expnditures 2010 $182,627,546 $143,662,844 $326,290,390 $344,623,675 $271,058,931 $615,682,606 $280,933,730 $221,142,411 $502,076,141 $155,933,290 $120,843,545 $276,776,835 $101,954,674 $80,156,830 $182,111,504 $117,268,814 $92,549,547 $209,818,361 $251,269,920 $197,232,880 $448,502,800 $186,707,510 $155,097,891 $341,805,401 $102,935,007 $81,432,897 $184,367,904 $44,257,770 $35,432,540 $79,690,310 $21,097,790 $16,849,040 $37,946,830 $2,653,445,320
2015 $198,479,198 $157,633,995 $356,113,193 $396,144,078 $311,582,121 $707,726,199 $308,253,884 $238,026,542 $546,280,427 $171,097,441 $128,040,885 $299,138,326 $110,804,105 $87,388,875 $198,192,980 $136,025,673 $107,352,805 $243,378,479 $294,085,693 $231,612,885 $525,698,578 $208,766,562 $173,422,640 $382,189,201 $112,945,198 $89,352,212 $202,297,410 $48,735,792 $38,710,035 $87,445,827 $23,870,592 $19,031,355 $42,901,947 $2,965,794,887
2006
Market Pnetration 2010 45.0% 6.0% 27.8% 55.0% 20.0% 39.6% 25.0% 4.0% 15.8% 24.0% 8.0% 17.0% 23.0% 5.0% 15.1% 40.0% 12.0% 27.6% 20.0% 5.0% 13.4% 9.0% 3.0% 6.3% 26.0% 5.0% 16.7% 15.0% 2.0% 9.2% 27.0% 12.0% 20.3% 25.4%
2015 43.0% 6.0% 26.6% 51.0% 15.0% 35.2% 25.0% 3.0% 15.4% 23.0% 8.0% 16.6% 27.0% 5.0% 17.3% 40.0% 9.0% 26.3% 20.0% 5.0% 13.4% 9.0% 3.0% 6.3% 26.0% 4.0% 16.3% 15.0% 2.0% 9.2% 27.0% 12.0% 20.3% 24.3%
Matteson Estimated Sales3. 2006 2010 2015 $55,357,000 $7,713,000 $63,070,000 $152,633,000 $45,864,000 $198,497,000 $38,755,000 $5,994,000 $44,749,000 $36,720,000 $10,918,000 $47,638,000 $9,365,000 $2,151,000 $11,516,000 $30,276,000 $5,432,000 $35,708,000 $39,278,000 $8,376,000 $47,654,000 $16,669,000 $5,396,000 $22,065,000 $26,221,000 $3,609,000 $29,830,000 $4,782,000 $625,000 $5,407,000 $4,622,000 $1,153,000 $5,775,000 $511,909,000 $82,182,000 $8,620,000 $90,802,000 $189,543,000 $54,212,000 $243,755,000 $70,233,000 $8,846,000 $79,079,000 $37,424,000 $9,668,000 $47,092,000 $23,500,000 $4,008,000 $27,508,000 $46,908,000 $11,106,000 $58,014,000 $50,254,000 $9,862,000 $60,116,000 $16,804,000 $4,653,000 $21,457,000 $26,763,000 $4,072,000 $30,835,000 $6,639,000 $709,000 $7,348,000 $5,696,000 $2,022,000 $7,718,000 $673,724,000 $85,346,000 $9,458,000 $94,804,000 $202,033,000 $46,738,000 $248,771,000 $77,063,000 $7,141,000 $84,204,000 $39,352,000 $10,244,000 $49,596,000 $29,917,000 $4,369,000 $34,286,000 $54,410,000 $9,662,000 $64,072,000 $58,817,000 $11,581,000 $70,398,000 $18,789,000 $5,203,000 $23,992,000 $29,366,000 $3,574,000 $32,940,000 $7,310,000 $774,000 $8,084,000 $6,445,000 $2,284,000 $8,729,000 $719,876,000
$167,748,138 $128,551,695 $296,299,833 $299,279,650 $229,317,777 $528,597,427 $258,365,470 $199,802,769 $458,168,239 $141,229,688 $109,182,471 $250,412,159 $93,648,012 $71,712,246 $165,360,258 $100,921,644 $77,592,189 $178,513,833 $218,208,960 $167,520,729 $385,729,689 $166,687,400 $134,892,810 $301,580,210 $93,648,012 $72,173,418 $165,821,430 $39,853,442 $31,244,403 $71,097,845 $18,487,148 $14,411,625 $32,898,773 $2,354,385,653
33.0% 6.0% 21.3% 51.0% 20.0% 37.6% 15.0% 3.0% 9.8% 26.0% 10.0% 19.0% 10.0% 3.0% 7.0% 30.0% 7.0% 20.0% 18.0% 5.0% 12.4% 10.0% 4.0% 7.3% 28.0% 5.0% 18.0% 12.0% 2.0% 7.6% 25.0% 8.0% 17.6% 21.7%
TOTAL Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.

1. 2. 3.
All dollar figure as in thousands Sales exclude Drugs, Sporting Goods and Book Stores Assumes the addition of a new Target store, a Penney's store,a Kohl's unit, and a Wal-Mart Supercenter..
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois We estimate that in 2010, the market potential will amount to an estimated $2.654 billion. We estimate that Matteson can capture sales of an estimated $673.2 million, or 25.4 percent. By 2015, we estimate that Mattesons retail sales will rise to an estimated $719.9 million, or a market penetration of 24.3 percent. ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES BY RETAIL CATEGORY We have estimated retail sales by major retail category and compared the data to the sales actually being captured in the Village. Next, we simulated alternative retail store development scenarios to determine what was realistic. Finally, we estimated the retail sales that are likely should certain actions take place. These are discussed below by retail category. Home Improvement Mattesons retail sales in this category in 2005 were approximately $63 million. This results in a market penetration in this category estimated at 33 percent for the Primary Trade Area and 21.3 percent for the Total Trade Area in relation to Home Improvement expenditures of $296.3 million. Menards and Home Depot are the major retailers in this category. Menards apparently would like to build a new larger store and it is very likely that Lowes will also want to enter this market. In 2010, the potential in this category is forecast to increase to $326.3 million. We forecast that the market penetration should rise to an estimated 27.8 percent, resulting in a sales potential in this category for the existing and added retailers amounting to $90.8 million. By 2015, sales are estimated to rise to approximately $94.8 million. General Merchandise The General Merchandise category includes department stores such as Carsons and Sears and big box discounters including Wal-Mart, Target, and Value City. These stores generated sales of over $197.4 million in 2005 and are now estimated at $198.5 million. The market penetration in this category amounts to 37.6 percent. Target is planning to build a new store, Wal-Mart would like to build a Supercenter, Penneys is looking in the market, and Kohls may eventually wish to be in this market segment. Our forecasts indicate that the market potential in 2010 in this category will amount to an estimated $615.7 million. We estimate the stores in this category can capture approximately 39.6 percent, resulting in estimated sales of $243.8 million. This assumes the both Sears and Carsons continue to operate stores in the Mall. By 2015, the potential in General Merchandise is forecast to rise to $707.7 million. We estimate that the General Merchandise stores in Matteson can expect to capture approximately 35.2 percent of the potential, or sales amounting to an estimated $248.8 million. This assumes that Penneys and Kohls enter the market segment and Target and Wal-Mart build new stores.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Food Stores The current market penetration in the Food Store category is a low 9.8 percent. Sales in this category in 2005 were $43.4 million, or about $834,000 a week. That is the equivalent of two good supermarkets. The potential in this category currently amounts to $458.2 million annually. It should be pointed out the Sams Club sales are included by the government in the General Merchandise category, so this category is understated. Wal-Mart would like to build a Supercenter which features food. We recommend that they be allowed to do so. The market potential in 2010 is estimated at $502.1 million. We estimate Mattesons market penetration rise to 15.8 percent, resulting in Food sales of an estimated $79.1 million. By 2015, Food Store sales are estimated at $84.2 million with a market penetration of 15.4 percent. Apparel & Accessories Stores In 2005, Matteson captured retail sales in this category of $47.4 million. We estimate sales currently at $47.6 million, resulting in a market penetration of 19.0 percent. The majority of sales in this category are captured by Lincoln Mall. We have assumed that both Mall department stores will remain and improve their attraction. However, this category has had a difficult time throughout the country. Many stores in this category are affected by big box competition. In 2010, we estimate that sales in this category will be about the same at $47.1 million resulting in a market penetration of 17.0 percent. By 2015, we estimate that sales in this category will be approximately $49.5 million with a market penetration of 16.6 percent. Furniture & Home Furnishings Sales in this category in 2005 amounted to an estimated $11.0 million. The current potential in this category is estimated at $165.4 million, resulting in a current market penetration of 7.0 percent. The data indicate that there is a market in this category for one or two new furniture stores. In 2010, the market potential will increase to an estimated $182.1 million. Furniture stores in this market segment should be capable of capturing a market penetration of 15.1 percent, resulting in estimated retail sales of $27.5 million. By 2015, we estimate that the potential should rise to an estimated $198.2 million and with a market share of 17.3 percent; sales are estimated at $34.3 million. Wickes has already shown an interest in locating a new store in this area. Electronics and Appliances Sales in this category in 2005 amounted to approximately $35.0 million. Given a market potential in this category of an estimated $178.5 million, the market penetration currently amounts to an estimated 20.0 percent. The potential in this category in 2010 amounts to an estimated $209.8 million. We expect either Best Buy or Circuit to build a new store in this market area increasing the sales to an estimated $58.0 million in 2010. In 2015, we expect sales to rise to $64.1 million based upon a market penetration of 26.3 percent.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Eating & Drinking This category includes both restaurants and quick service food units (formerly fast-food). Sales in 2005 in this category amounted to $44.9 million. We currently estimate sales at $47.7 million for a market penetration of 12.4 percent based upon a market potential of $385.7 million. In 2010, we estimate that the market potential in this category will rise to an estimated $448.5 million. A considerable portion of these potential dollars are spent where people work and in restaurants outside the Matteson area. Nonetheless, we estimate that Matteson will have a market penetration in 2010 of approximately 13.4 percent, resulting in sales of $60.1 million. By 2015, we estimate that market potential will rise to an estimated $552.7 million and Matteson facilities will capture approximately 13.4 percent, or $70.4 million. Drug Store and Miscellaneous Stores In 2005, this category had retail sales of $65.8 million, up over $10 million from 2004. In our analysis, we have separated the Drug store, Sporting Goods, and Book sales from the total category to better see the potential. Thus we will discuss each separately. Drug Stores We estimate that Drug Stores are currently capturing sale amounting to approximately $29.8 million. The market potential in this category amounts to approximately $165.8 million, resulting in a market penetration of 18.0 percent. In the Primary Trade Area the market penetration amounts to 28 percent. By 2010, the potential in this category is forecast to rise to an estimated $184.4 million. Market penetration is expected to decline to 16.7 percent because of additional discount competition, resulting in estimated sales of $30.8 million. In 2015, our estimate of potential sales in this category amounts to $202.3 million, with Matteson capturing sales of 16.3 percent for sales of $32.9 million. Sporting Goods Sales in this category are currently estimated at $5.4 million. Total market potential in the Sporting Goods category is estimated at $71.1 million, resulting in a market penetration of 7.6 percent. In 2010, we estimate that the market potential will rise to an estimated $79.7 million and with a market share of 9.2 percent; sales will rise to $7.3 million. In 2015, we estimate that the market potential will rise to $87.4 million and with a market share of 9.2 percent; stores in this category should capture sales of an estimated $8.1 million. Book Stores Currently, we estimate that sales in this category are approximately $5.6 million. With a market potential of $32.9 million, the estimated market penetration is estimated at 17.6 percent. In 2010, we estimate that the market potential will rise to $37.9 million and with a market penetration of 20.3 percent will result in a potential of $7.7 million. In 2015, we estimate that the market potential will increase to $42.9 million and with a market penetration of an estimated 20.3 percent; sales are estimated to rise to $8.7 million.
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Miscellaneous Retail Stores Sales in this category are currently estimated at $32.1 million of the potential of $301.6 million, resulting in a market penetration of 7.3 percent. By 2010, we estimate the market penetration will decline to approximately 6.3 percent because of big box competition, but potential will rise to $341.8 million because of growth and rising income. Thus, sales in this category are estimated at $21.5 million. By 2015, market potential is forecast to an estimated $382.2 million, resulting in estimated sales of $24.0 million with a market penetration of 6.3 percent. Prospective Major Retailers We have evaluated the market potential and the opportunities for retailers not currently in the Matteson portion of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Listed below are a suggest list of potential retailers. Barnes & Noble Costco DSW Shoes Ashley Furniture Kohls Lowes Home Improvement Penneys new free-standing stores Wickes Furniture Woodmans Warehouse Foods Wal-Mart Supercenter Lifestyle Tenants in Lifestyle Centers in the Chicago Area who are not in Lincoln Mall Lincoln Mall has contacted many of these retailers in an attempt to secure them for the Mall. Usually it takes three interested retailers or restaurants at the same time to get the attention of others. We encourage repeated attempts to obtain some lifestyle tenants. It will be necessary to create and environment that appeals to their objectives. Redevelopment of the former department store at the east end of the Mall into a lifestyle component featuring lifestyle retailers, restaurants, cinema, and entertainment segment would have a positive impact upon the Mall. Some of the lifestyle tenants normally found in lifestyle centers are as follows. Abercrombie & Fitch American Eagle Outfitters Ann Taylor and Ann Taylor Loft Anthropologie April Cornell Banana Republic Barnes and Noble Bombay & Bombay Kids Build-A-Bear -66-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Lifestyle Tenants (Continued) Chicos Coach Coldwater Creek Crate & Barrel Eddie Bauer Gap, Baby Gap, Gap Kids Dicks Sporting Goods H&M Hollister Co. Hot Topics J Crew Jos. A. Bank Pottery Barn and Pottery Barn Kid Restoration Hardware Smith & Hawken Steve Madden Talbot's, Talbot's Petites, Talbot's Woman Tommy Bahama Trader Joes Williams-Sonoma Yankee Candle Company Z Gallerie Cinemas Lifestyle Restaurants The Cheesecake Factory Brio Tuscan Grille P.F. Changs China Bistro California Pizza Kitchen Claddagh Irish Pub Cold Stone Creamery Noodles & Company Corner Bakery Caf Big Bowl Asian Kitchen Maggianos Little Italy Potbelly Sandwich Works Romanos Macaroni Grill Rockfish Seafood Grill Bar Louis Max & Irmas
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Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois Mattesons Shopping Centers The following is a list of Matteson area shopping centers located principally on Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue. They vary in size and condition. Most have some vacant smaller stores. Below is a brief discussion of centers in Matteson other than Lincoln Mall. Matteson Marketplace is located on the northwest corner of Lincoln Highway and Cicero Avenue. The center contains approximately 157,885 square feet. Tenants include Borders Books, Sportmart, Linens N Things, Marshalls, Mattress World, Harris Bank, Panera Bread Company, and others. Matteson Towncenter is located in the southwest quadrant of Cicero Avenue and Lincoln Highway containing 229,041 square feet. The shopping center currently contains Pets Mart, Office Max, Fashion Bug, Old Country Buffet and others. Toys R Us is a separate property, as is Applebees and Fuddruckers. A site fronting on Cicero Avenue at the centers traffic light is being readied for development. The shopping center owner is preparing a redevelopment plan for the shopping center which includes a realigned internal roadway. When complete, it will be submitted to the Village. We encourage Village assistance for this strategic location at the Interstate 57, which is the Matteson Gateway. Century Tile Plaza, located on the east side of Cicero Avenue at 20909 S. Cicero Avenue, contains approximately 49,600 square feet. The primary tenants are Century Tile and medical offices. The vacancies are small store spaces which today are difficult to lease. The owners current focus should be toward service stores and small offices. The supply of small retailers is limited and most are they are more oriented toward Lincoln Highway. Also, traffic northbound on Cicero Avenue north of Lincoln Highway is often oriented toward Home Depot. Home Depot is very male oriented, and thus, retail stores and service shops that are more men oriented should be sought our. Furthermore, northbound shoppers who are not destined for Home Depot are leaving the shopping area. Service oriented shops that can be on the back-side of a shopping trip should be considered. Liberty Plaza is located at 4555 Lincoln Highway and contains approximately 64,600 square feet. The center fronts on the south side of Lincoln Highway in front of the Mall. We have been told by Ownership that Liberty Plaza has access to the Mall parking lot. Chernins Shoes is the principal retail generator. Ownership has an approximately 22,500 square foot site for development. This is a difficult size for individual retailers and will probably necessitate dividing the space for two or more users. The expansion of Wal-Mart and Menards and the relocation of Target, as well as other retail change should have a positive affect upon this shopping center. Moreover, ownership is focused upon addressing the vacancy and development opportunity. Matteson Plaza, located in the southwest quadrant of Lincoln Highway and Governors Highway at 4243 Lincoln Highway, contains approximately 280,000 square feet. Major tenants include Dominicks Finer Foods, Michaels, and Value City Department Store. The center was adversely affected following the Safeways acquisition of Dominicks. New merchandising policies were not received well by the consumer. Value City has not provided -68-
Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois the customer generation expected. They are probably being negatively affected by Wal-Mart. There are considerable vacancies in the center. Ownership needs to focus on smaller box stores and service-oriented stores. It will take some time to fill the vacant spaces because of the limited number of retailers seeking space and the large number of vacant smaller store spaces. Centel Plaza, located on Lincoln Highway at 4331 W. 211th Street, contains approximately 23,000 square feet. The principal tenant is Hancock Fabricas. There are approximately 9,000 square feet vacant. As with many of the other centers, filling the small spaces is difficult. The market is primarily for service uses and some small retailers who are not competing directly with the big box retailers. Furthermore, many small centers are avoided because of difficult access. Finally, the vacant former Builders Square has been an eyesore. It is our understanding that there may be a buyer and user for the Builders Square building. If so, it would have a positive impact upon this area and this center. The Marketplace Plaza is located on the north side of Lincoln Highway at 4200 West 211th Street and contains approximately 309,800 square feet. Principal tenants include Cub Foods, Burlington Coat Factory, A. J. Wright, Aronsons Furniture, and others. This center has had some retail turnover even though that it has some generative retailers. This is a reflection of the excessive amount of vacant small retail space in Matteson. The market for small spaces is overbuilt. Nonetheless, the amount of traffic on Lincoln Highway will continue to increase and offer opportunities for other retailers and service stores. Lincoln Square shopping center is located at 4431 W. 211th Street in Matteson and contains approximately 25,000 square feet. The largest store of approximately 8,000 square feet is currently vacant. Pepes Mexican Restaurant is the second largest store. The are other small store vacancies. Here again, the market is producing a limited number of small store retail and service tenants. The focus should be on service and foodservice. That is where the most possibilities will occur. Rose Plaza is located at 4700 W. 211th in Matteson and contains approximately 25,000 square feet with no apparent vacancies. Should vacancies occur, the focus should be toward retail and service. The Former Builders Square on the north side of Lincoln Highway has remained vacant for several years. The unit contains approximately 90,000 square feet and approximately 450 parking spaces. One of the problems of this property is access. The site does not have a traffic light making it difficult to get out of the property. Also, because of the Bridge over the Creek/Retention Area at the front of the property, entry is steep, making it more difficult to enter and exit the property. It is our understanding that a user has expressed an interest in the property. The Village should encourage the redevelopment of the property.
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ADDENDA
INTRODUCTION TO MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC.
____________________________________________________________________________
Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. is a firm of real estate counselors, site selection specialists, market analysts, retail consultants, and international investment advisors who practice their specialties throughout the world. Members of the firm, evaluate both problems and opportunities involving urban and suburban development and redevelopment. Since its beginning in 1971, the company has successfully advised thousands of national and international clients in both the private and public sectors regarding solutions to their individual needs. In the private sector, the firm's activities include market and locational feasibility studies, retail store and restaurant development strategies, revenue potential analysis, market development strategies, locational criteria, prioritization, site selection, long range planning, redevelopment alternatives, and financial analysis. Clients include: major retailers, restaurants, supermarkets, fast food chains, shopping centers owners and developers, manufacturing companies, casinos, convenience stores, family entertainment centers, leisure-time attractions, hotels and hotel developers, resorts, sports organizations, financial institutions, insurance companies, pension funds, foreign investment trusts, major and minor mixed use developers, residential developers, condominium converters, industrial park developers, congregate care facilities planners, office complexes, business parks, housing, hospital administrators, and many others. Additional programs include: demographic projections, highest and best use studies, tax impact programs, tax increment financing, rehabilitation programs, mixed-use development analyses, adaptive re-use, and merger and acquisition programs. In the public sector, services include: neighborhood needs studies, resident shopping surveys, downtown revitalization programs, industrial opportunity identification, job-oriented analyses, community assets, stadium and arena feasibility, convention and meeting facilities, demographic forecasts, festival marketplaces, waterfront developments, leisure attractions, and airport spatial and expansion requirements. The staff consists of market analysts, site selection specialists, financial analysts, urbanologists, economists, marketing professionals, planners, real estate experts, and real estate professionals. Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. has both the depth and breadth of experience to provide comprehensive and innovative consultation. The firm is often engaged with clientele throughout the United States, Canada, Mxico, South America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Far East.
PHILOSOPHY
___________________________________________________________________________ The philosophy of Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. is to analyze a client's problems and provide expert advice and recommendations. Also, the company's mission is to help the client implement the advice to ensure the attainment of his or her goals. We often work with our clients from concept planning to project completion to provide our client with maximum benefit of our experience. Our staff of experts come from a wide variety of disciplines which are financially and economically oriented; thus, our philosophy dictates that we look at each recommended action as though we were spending our own money. Thus, if we were hesitant to invest our money, then we certainly would not recommend risking our clients' resources on a marginal or uneconomic project. This entrepreneurial approach is critical to the consulting business and absolutely essential in providing sound economic investment advice. Most consultants have never had to implement their own recommendations nor build the project as recommended. Members of our staff have. As a result, we have a profound respect for risk/resources and returns on invested capital.
ABOUT OUR FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT
John C. Melaniphy has been a real estate counselor; restaurant, quick service food and retail site selection specialist; and market analyst for over 40 years. During this time, he has been involved in almost every type of urban and suburban restaurant and retail development and redevelopment problem and opportunity. He began his career with, at that time, the largest market analysis and site selection firm in the world and worked on all phases of the company's business over a 12 year span. The last three years, he was Senior Vice President of Real Estate Research Corporation, in charge of its commercial analyses and the operation of 13 world-wide offices. In 1969, Mr. Melaniphy resigned from Real Estate Research Corporation to become Corporate Vice President of Kentucky Fried Chicken Corporation. His duties were to establish a real estate and construction division and assist in Financial Management. He was responsible for the selection and development of over 400 KFC units, as well as commissaries, warehouses, office buildings, and other facilities. Mr. Melaniphy became aware of the need in the corporate world for the unique background he possesses - a combination of both sound theory and practical application in acquiring and developing real estate, estimating sales and strategic market planning and prioritization. With the acquisition of KFC by Heublein, Mr. Melaniphy resigned to establish his own market-oriented consulting firm in 1971. He also assisted in packaging a $50,000,000 loan for corporate expansion. With the merger of company with Heublein, Melaniphy resigned to start Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. Mr. Melaniphy is aware of the need in the corporate world for the unique background he possesses; a combination of both scientific analysis and extensive business experience resulting in sound decision making. Mr. Melaniphy has counseled thousands of companies throughout the world. Some of these include: Marshall Field & Company, J.C. Penney Company, Wal-Mart, Sears Roebuck & Company, Macy's, Lord & Taylor, Saks Fifth Avenue, Dayton Hudson (now Marshall Fields), Neiman Marcus, Federated Department Stores, Target, Meijer, the Hudson Bay Company, El Puerto de Liverpool, Fabricas de Francia, International Multifoods, the Jewel Companies, the House of Escada, Marshalls, Wickes Furniture, the Rouse Company, G.E. Capital, Heller Financial, Household Commercial, Aetna Life Insurance Company, Travelers Life Insurance Company, Hollywood Casinos, Huizenga Capital Management, The Simon Property Group, Birtcher Realty Advisors, General Growth Properties, Bain Capital, Iowa Electric, Corrigan Properties, Gerald D. Hines Interests, Heitman Capital Management, Avatar Properties, Forest City Enterprises, Zale Construction Company, Concord Development, Amoco, Fondo Opcion, S.A., ICA Asociadas, FRISA Division Comercial, Mobile, Union, USX Realty, the Kuwait Bank, Marriott, Sheraton, Hilton, Embassy Suites, Baymont Inns, Hampton Inns, , Fitness USA, and many others. Some of the foodservice related clients include: Marriott Corporation, Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises, Schwartz Brothers, Bennigan's, Maggianos Little Italy, Sir Walter Raleigh, Shaws Crab House, P F Chang, Friendly's, Restaurant Associates, Arigato Steak House, Charlie Brown's, Big Bowl Asian Caf, Columbia Restaurants, Max & Irma's, TGI Friday's, Shorty Small's, Pepe's, Superdawg, Border Cafe, County Line Barbecue, Steak and Stein, Pizza Hut, Pizza Delight, McDonalds, Burger King, Hardees, Taco Bell, Arbys, Church's, Popeyes, Dunkin Donut, Baja Fresh, and numerous others individual restaurants and fast food operators. Municipalities assisted include: Chicago, Minneapolis, Cleveland, San Antonio, Charlestown, Louisville, Milwaukee, Omaha, Seattle, Los Angeles, Boston, Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa, and numerous others.
His affiliations have included: The Counselors of Real Estate, Urban Land Institute, International Council of Shopping Centers, Lambda Alpha International Real Estate Economics Fraternity, the National Restaurant Association, the National Retail Federation, Realty Club of Chicago, and many others. He is the author of Commercial and Industrial Condominiums published by Urban Land Institute and Restaurant and Fast Food Site Selection published by John Wiley & Sons. He is also a contributing author of the book entitled Shopping Centers and Other Properties also published by John Wiley & Sons. Mr. Melaniphys new book The Restaurant Site Selection Guidebook will be published in 2006. The author of over 100 articles, Mr. Melaniphy, also presents seminars covering real estate, mixed-use development, site selection, store development strategies, shopping center opportunities, restaurant and fast food market analysis and site selection, and long range development planning. The seminars are presented throughout the world for associations and private companies. Mr. Melaniphy is an expert witness in all levels of the judicial system. Moreover, he is a much sought after speaker on a wide variety of subjects. For further information, please visit the companys Website @ www.melaniphy.com where over 40 articles are posted, along with January Retail Trends newsletter and the Chicagoland Retail Sales Newsletter.

6333 NORTH MILWAUKEE AVENUE SUITE 106 CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 60646-3744 E-mail - Jmelaniphy@melaniphy.com Fax: 773-774-0454 Phone: 773-467-1212
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF CLIENTS

MAJOR DEVELOPERS AND OWNERS U.S.X. Realty Development Corp. The Simon Property Group The Rouse Company Upland Industries (Union Pacific RR) Corrigan Properties, Inc. Merrill Lynch Realty The RREEF Funds Gerald D. Hines Interests Forest City Enterprises Mills Development Corporation Birtcher Realty Advisors Tucker Properties Corporation CMC Heartland Partners The Commonfund McCaffery Interests, Inc. Aetna Life Insurance Company Teachers Insurance and Annuity Assoc. Metropolitan Real Estate Co. Trammel Crow Company Inland Real Estate CITIES New York, New York Chicago, Illinois Milwaukee, Wisconsin San Antonio, Texas Charleston, West Virginia Cleveland, Ohio Boston, Massachusetts Denver, Colorado Madison, Wisconsin Lawrence, Kansas Olathe, Kansas Manhattan, Kansas Glen Ellyn, Illinois Oak Park, Illinois St. Charles, Illinois Park Ridge, Illinois Highland Park, Illinois Glenwood, Illinois Brookfield, Wisconsin CITY OF CHICAGO PROJECTS Navy Pier Redevelopment Neighborhood Needs AnalysisAll of Chicagos Neighborhoods Analysis of over 25 Business Districts Industrial Park Development Analysis MAJOR RETAILERS Marshall Field & Company Saks Fifth Avenue Sears, Roebuck & Company J.C. Penney Company The May Company Macys Marshalls/ TJ Maxx The Jewel Companies Meijer Superstores Wal-Mart Federated Department Stores Dayton-Hudson Company Neiman Marcus Wickes Furniture Target Stores INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS Cifra/Wal-Mart The House of Escada El Puerto de Liverpool Fabricas de Francia Atlantic Wholesalers FINANCIAL ORGANIZATIONS Bank of America First National Bank of Chicago Harris Trust & Savings Bank Northern Trust & Savings Bank Citibank Chase Manhattan G.E. Capital Corp. Bain Capital Partners Heller Financial Household Commercial The RREEF Funds Huizenga Capital Management RESTAURANTS/FAST FOOD Restaurant Selection - Virginia Beach Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises Schwartz Brothers Arbys Sir Walter Raleigh Inns Shoneys Friendlys Brinker Restaurant Associates Burger King
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF CLIENTS (Continued) CITY OF CHICAGO PROJECTS (Continued) Potential for a New Stadium Mayor's Special Projects Waste Resource Recovery Analysis O'Hare International Airport Expansion Housing Development on Urban Renewal Properties Objectives Analysis-Economic Development Commission Analysis of Property DispositionChicago Board of Education Exposition Authority MANUFACTURERS/PRODUCERS W.W. Grainger Atlantic Richfield Company ITW/Magnaflux TDW/Hercules Tires International Multifoods IBM Iowa Electric (IE) Industries William C. Brown Group Booth Fisheries Campbell Soup Company Griffith Laboratories Exxon Mobil Oil Texaco Standard Oil Dresser Industries IBM INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT FUNDS Ivanhoe Investment Funds - Canada Coast Investment & Development Company-Kuwait Merrill Lynch Capital Markets HOTELS Hyatt Sheridan Holiday Inn Marriott Embassy Suites Baymont Inns Days Inn RESTAURANTS/FAST FOOD (Continued) Piccadilly Cafeterias Baja Fresh Steak and Stein Brennan's Pizza Delight - Canada Marriott Corporation Shorty Small's Popeye's Hardee's Pizza Hut Wendy's SPECIAL Wal-Mart Zoning Issues National Restaurant Association International Council of Shopping Centers Fitness Management Corp. Catholic Archdiocese of Chicago Illinois Masonic Medical Center SBC Ameritech Chicago Cubs U.S. Postal Service Illinois Law Enforcement Commission Santa Fe Railroad United Parcel Service Chicago Northwestern Railroad Hammond Railroad Consolidation Project STATES IL Dept. of Transportation IL Capital Development Board IL Dept. of Commerce and Community Affairs Iowa Dept. of Transportation IN Dept. of Transportation MI Dept. of Transportation WI Dept. of Transportation WATERFRONT PROJECTS Navy Pier-Chicago North Coast Harbor-Cleveland, Ohio Miami Beach Marina Redevelopment
6333 N. Milwaukee Avenue Suite 106 Chicago, Illinois 60646-3744 Phone 773-467-1212 Facsimile 773-774-0454 www@melaniphy.com

Matteson Retail Report

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RETAIL MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY LINCOLN MALL AREA LINCOLN HIGHWAY, CICERO AVENUE & INTERSTATE 57 MATTESON, ILLINOIS

PREPARED FOR VILLAGE OF MATTESON MATTESON, ILLINOIS JUNE 2006

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

future retail market in and around Lincoln Mall.

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS Matteson Trade Area

Secondary Trade Area Number Percent Change

Total Trade Area

Population by Race (2005)

82,377 25,635 1,712 138 30 2,456 2,944

Households by Tenure (2005)

Population by Gender (2005)

Marital Status (2005)

MARKET SUPPORT FACTORS Matteson Trade Area

Secondary Trade Area Number Percent Change

Total Trade Area

$58,634 $72,603 $84,289

Total Population (2005)

TOTAL Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

THE LINCOLN MALL AREAS RETAIL CONCENTRATION

Spring Hill Mall

Fox Valley Center

MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC.

MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC.

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

NATIONAL AND CHICAGOLAND RETAIL TRENDS

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

Retail Market Feasibility Study, Lincoln Mall Area, Matteson, Illinois

RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Secondary Trade Area Number Percent Change

Total Trade Area

Secondary Trade Area Number Percent Change

Total Trade Area

$58,634 $72,603 $84,289

Total Population (2005)

Table 6.2 COMPETITIVE RETAIL FACILITIES TO MATTESON RETAIL CONCENTRATIONS

Hickory Creek Centre

Lincoln Crossing Olympia Plaza

$74,433,000 $309,925,000 $242,218,000 $67,707,000 $593,905,000 $287,267,000

D $7,070,000 D D $7,262,000 $2,655,000 D $4,607,000 D D D D $43,513,000 D D D D D D D

$7,096,549,000 $2,945,075,000 $2,668,493,000 $2,199,427,000 $58,772,000 $410,294,000 $1,036,943,000 $446,038,000

$3,788,268,000 $1,529,368,000 $1,330,919,000 $1,094,551,000 $19,473,000 $216,895,000 $602,333,000 $325,648,000

TOTAL Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.

INTRODUCTION TO MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC.

ABOUT OUR FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT

MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC.

REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF CLIENTS

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