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ShallWeStayOrShallWeGo?

Re-migrationtrendsamongBritain’simmigrants
SUMMARY
TimFinch,MariaLatorre,NaomiPollardandJillRutter
WWW.IPPR.ORG

MIGRATION

InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch
2 ShallWeStayOrShallWeGo?|Executivesummary

Executivesummary
InMay2009,theOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)publisheditsquarterlyreporton
migration.Itstarteditssummaryofstatisticsbynotingthefollowing:
• Thenumberofnon-Britishcitizensemigratingrosebynearly30percentintheyearending
September2008.EmigrationofcitizensoftheA8Accessioncountries[totheEuropean
Union]doubledoverthesameperiod.
• Immigrationofnon-Britishcitizens,includingA8citizens,changedlittleovertheyearto
September2008.(OfficeforNationalStatistics2009)
Herewassignificantevidencethatthemigratoryflowthatweterm‘re-migration’was
increasing,whileimmigrationremainedrelativelystable.Thislatestdatathereforereinforces
theconclusionsandconfirmssomeofthepredictionswemakeinthisreport,inwhichweset
outtoquantifyandanalysere-migrationfromtheUnitedKingdom,andtounderstandwhat
motivatesimmigrantstoleave.
Tounderstandtheimpactsthatmigrationhasonacountryitisimportanttostudyallits
components.ThereisnolackofscrutinyofimmigrationtotheUK;whiletheemigrationof
Britishpeoplewascoveredinippr’smuchdiscussed BritsAbroad reportin2006,whichshowed
thatbetween1966and2006theUKexperiencedanetlossof2.7millionBritishnationals.By
contrast re-migration(thereturnmigrationoronwardmigrationofpreviousimmigrantstothe
UK)isasomewhatneglectedsubject–thoughinacademicandpolicycirclesthisisstartingto
change.
GiventheunprecedentedlevelsofimmigrationtotheUKinrecentyears,itmaynotappear
veryimportantthataproportionofthoseimmigrantsaresubsequentlyleaving.Indeedsome
mightsupposeitisawhollygoodthingandwelcomethefactthattheoutflowisincreasing.It
isourcontention,however,thatpolicymakersshouldcareaboutre-migrationandknowmore
aboutthoseleaving.
Thisisparticularlytrueatatimewhentheprocessesforcontrollingandmanagingimmigration
arebeingtightened,withtheaimofselectingimmigrants(oratleasteconomicmigrants)on
thebasisoftheirskills.Internationalcompetitionforhighly-skilledmigrantsisintensifyingand
itmakesnosensefortheUKtosucceedinattractingsuchmigrantsonlytolosethemquickly
becauseofre-migration.Theretentionofhighskilledmigrantsislikelytobecomeasleastas
importantasattractingtheminthefirstplaceasthetraditionalcountriesofimmigrationare
joinedbyfastgrowingeconomieslikeChinaandIndia,allofwhichwillbetryingtolurea
diminishingpoolofyoung,skilled,mobileindividualstodrivegrowth,pluggapsinlabour
marketsandoffsetageingpopulations.
Attheveryleast,theUKmaywanttofindwaysofencouragingthesemigrantstoreturnagain
sometimeinthefutureortomaintaincontactwiththemintheircountriesofonwardorreturn
migration.
Ontheotherhand,theGovernmentmaywanttoincreasereturnmigrationamongsometypes
ofmigrant,whoatthemomenttendtostaylongerorsettleintheUK,eithertoaid
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developmentinthemigrant’shomecountryorbecausethemigrantisdeemedinsomewayto
be‘undesirable’–forexample,becauseheorsheisarefusedasylumseekeroran‘irregular’,
low-skilledmigrant.Understandingwhatledre-migrantstodecidetoleavetheUKshouldbe
helpfulinunderstandinghowtomakevoluntaryreturnpackagesorcircularmigration
programmesmoreattractive.
Thisreportlooksindetailattheavailabledatasetssothatwecanseethenumbersre-
migratingandgetaclearerpictureofwhoisgoingandwhy.Wehavealsogatherednew
evidencethroughopensurveysandthroughresearchinsixcasestudycountries,which
involvedextensiveinterviewingofpeoplewhohavere-migratedfromtheUK.

Ourmainfindings
Overthelastthirtyyearsorso1,therateofre-migrationfromtheUK(thatis,returnoronward
migrationbynon-Britishnationals)hasbeenabouthalfthatofimmigration(3,186,200out
comparedwith6,189,900in).
Re-migrationtrendsreflectimmigrationtrends,albeitwithatimelag.Asimmigrationintothe
UKincreasessodoesre-migrationfromthecountry–thoughnottotheextentofthelatter
matchingtheformer.TheUKhasbeenforsometimeacountryofnetinwardmigration–and
officialprojectionssuggestthistrendwillcontinue.
However,since1975atleast61,000immigrantshavelefttheUKeachyear–withnumbers
risingsteadilyinthelastdecadetoapeakof194,000in2006–apopulationthesizeofthe
cityofPortsmouth.Thispeakislikelytohavebeenexceededin2008–withre-migration
topping200,000.Emigrationofimmigrantsisthereforeagrowingphenomenon.p
WiththeUKinrecession,wewouldexpecttoseenon-Britishimmigrationdecreasingorat
leaststabilising(thereisevidencethatthishasstartedtohappenalready)whilere-migration
increases.FactoringintheimmigrationandemigrationofBritishnationals,wewouldexpectto
seenetmigrationfallingoverthenexttwotofiveyears.However,wedonotexpecttheUKto
experiencenetemigrationduringthisperiod.
Theoverallrateofre-migration(emigrationofimmigrantstotheUK)islikelytobearoundor
above200,000inthenextcoupleofyearsandislikelytoremainabove150,000foratleast
thenextfiveyears.
MostimmigrantsspendlessthanfouryearsintheUKandsuchshort-staymigrationis
increasing(itdoubledbetween1996and2007),largelyasaresultofanincreaseinthe
numberofforeignstudentsandoftemporarylabourmigrants,particularlyfromtheEuropean
Union.Ofthemigrantswhoarrivedin1998,onlyaroundaquarterwerestillhere10years
later.85percentofthecurrentmigrantswhotookpartinippr’sonlinesurveysaidtheywere
onlyplanningtostayshortterm.
EUmigrantsandmigrantsfrommoredevelopedcountriestendtostayforshorterperiodsand
tobefirmerintheirintentiontore-migrate.Migrantsfrompoorercountriesaremorelikelyto
stayforlonger,orsettlepermanently–thoughaseconomiesindevelopingcountriesdobetter
thisisstartingtochange.

1.Between1975and2007
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Super-mobility,inwhichmigrantsmovemultipletimes,comingbackandforwardbetween
theirhomecountryandotherdestinations,isanincreasingelementofmigrationina
globalisedworld,andparticularlyoncetheworldpullsoutofrecessionwewouldexpecttosee
moreofthistypeofmigration.Theincreasedcompetitionforhighlyskilledyoungmigrantswill
beaparticulardriverofthistypeofmigration.
TheUKhasbeenattractingincreasingnumbersofyoungandbetterqualifiedmigrantsin
recentyears,butthesearethemigrantswhotendtoleaveafterrelativelyshortstays.Asthe
stockofsettledmigrantsagesalongwiththegeneralpopulation,theinflowofyounger
migrantswillneedtobemaintainedorincreased.Thereisevidencethatinternational
competitiontoattractyoung,highskilledmigrantsisincreasing,whiledemographic
projectionssuggesttheywillbeinshortersupplyinthecomingyears.
TheGovernment’snewpoints-basedsystem,asupply-determinedmodelformanaging
economicmigration,isdesignedtoadmitmigrantswithfinancialassets,high-levelskillsor
skillsthatareinshortsupplyintoUK,whilekeepingoutthosewholacktheseattributes.Our
evidenceshowsthatthemigrantsmostlikelytobeallowedintotheUKthroughthePBSwill
bethosemostlikelytore-migratequickly(alongwithEUnationalswhoenjoyfreedomof
movement).However,atpresent,thePBStakesnoconsiderationofthere-migration
intentionsofwould-beimmigrants.
Ourresearchhasshownusthatreturnmigrationdecisionstendtobemoreinfluencedby
personalandfamilyfactors,includingayearningforhome,thantheyarebyeconomicfactors.
(Onwardmigration–whereamigrantmovestoathirdcountry–ismorelikelytobedrivenby
increasedeconomicopportunities.)However,thepullofhomeformigrantsisclearlyincreased
stillfurtherifeconomicopportunities,areasonableinfrastructureandpersonalsecurityare
availableinthehomecountry.
Immigrationdecisions,bycontrast,arestronglydrivenbyeconomicfactors,particularlywork
opportunitiesandtheabilitytoearnmoremoneythanathome–althoughmigrationfor
adventureisnowfairlycommonamongyounger,moreaffluentpeople.Thecompletionofthe
migrationexperience,whethereconomicorpersonal,isanotherspurtore-migrate.
Migrantsaremorelikelytore-migrateiftheysetoffwithaclearplanorobjectivefortheir
migrationexperience.Oncethatisfulfilled,theyreturnhomeormoveon.Anegative
migrationexperiencecanalsohastenreturn,butinsomeinstances,embarrassmentabout
returningasa‘failure’leadsmigrantstohangoninthedestinationcountryevenifthatmeans
becominganirregularmigrantbyover-stayingtheiroriginaltermsofentry.
TheUK,likemanyotherdevelopedcountries,istighteningitsbordersandmanagingmigration
moreclosely.Insomeinstances,thisrisksdamminginirregularmigrantswhofearthatifthey
leavetheywillneverbeabletocomeback.Ontheotherhand,ifthesystemsucceedsin
attractinghighskilledandhighvaluemigrants,andkeepingothersout,moreofthosewho
comearealsolikelytoleave.Therewillbegreater‘churn’amongthemigrantpopulation.

Recommendations
Theextentandnatureofre-migrationfromtheUKisstillnotwidelyunderstoodoreven
knownabout,andthishasledtoanunbalanceddebate,focusingalmostentirelyoninflows,
withtheresultthattheGovernmenthasfeltunderpressuretokeepontighteningmigration
processes.ThereisariskthatthiscouldbeagainsttheUK’slongertermeconomicinterests,
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particularlytheneedtoattractmigrantswithhigh-levelskillsorskillsthatareinshortsupply,
sothereisanurgentneedforallthoseinpositionsofpowerandinfluencetoensurethatre-
migrationiscentraltodiscussionsaboutmigration.
Atthesametime,weneedtobemakingmigrantsfeelmorewelcomeinthiscountry,bothin
thewaywetalkaboutthem,andinmorepracticalways.Inparticularweneedtoensurethat
integrationpoliciesandserviceprovisiontakeaccountofthefactthatmanymigrantswillbein
theUKforrelativelyshortperiods.
Thereisalimittothepolicyinterventionsthatgovernmentcanintroducetoretainmigrantsif
theywanttomoveon.However,itmakessenseforgovernmentatalllevels,aswellas
employers,toencouragethemostin-demandmigrantstostaylongerintheUK,through
innovativeretentioninitiatives,simplifyingvisaarrangementsandincentivestotakeup
citizenship.
Particularideascouldinclude:extendingschemestoencourageandhelpforeignstudentsto
findjobsintheUKaftertheygraduate;awardingextrapointsunderthenewpoints-based
systemtohighskilledmigrantswhoarecommittedtostayingintheUKlongerterm;
simplifyingprocessesforvisaandworkpermitextensions,allowingskilledmigrantstobringin
theirfamiliesmoreeasily;andcreatingtaxincentivesthatencouragesuchmigrantstostayin
theUK.
VerylittleattemptismadebytheUKgovernmenttoencourageyoungmigrantsfromcountries
likeNewZealandandAustralia,whocomehereforthe‘BigOE’(theBigOverseasExperience)
tostayhereinthelongertermandworkattheirpotentialskillslevels.Morecouldbedoneto
establishinitiativesthattargetthisgroupasavaluablesourceofhighlyskilledmigrants.
Ourresearchhasshownthatthegreatmajorityofreturneeshaveenjoyedapositive
experienceoftheUKandretainaffectionandrespectforthiscountry.Atpresent,wetendto
regardmigrantswhohavelefttheUKas‘goneforgood’–andmakelittleornoefforttostay
intouchwiththem.Wethinkthisisamistakeaswearemissingopportunitiesto‘re-recruit’
someformerimmigrantsortousethemas‘goodwillambassadors’.Wewouldliketoseethe
Governmenttreatingre-migrantsasa‘secondaryDiaspora’of‘honorary’Britsabroadwhocan
beregardedasadiplomaticandeconomicassettotheUK.Suchschemeswouldparticularly
servetheUK’sinterestsincountries,suchasPakistan,wheretherearesignsofgrowing
misunderstandingandtensionbetweenthetwonations.
WealsobelievetheGovernmentneedstoshowgreatercommitmenttocircularmigration
initiativesbothtomeetfuturelabourneedsandtoprovidelegaloutletsforlowskilled
migrantsfromdevelopingcountries,whowillotherwiseresorttoillegalroutes.Ministerscould
lookatbestpracticeinothercountries,suchasFrance,SpainandCanada,wherethebest
schemeshaveagoodrecordofmatchingworkopportunitieswithskillsandinensuring
compliancewithreturn.
Morecouldalsobedonetoprovideinformationforwould-bemigrantsintheirhomecountries,
bothtoencourageviablemigrationtotheUKandtodeterspeculativemigration.The
GovernmentshouldstudyandevaluateinitiativessuchastheEU’sMigrationInformationand
ManagementCentre(CIGEM)inBamako,MaliandMigrantServiceCentresoperatedbyIOMin
theWestBalkans,withtheideaofsettingupapilotcentreinacountrythatproduceslarge
numbersofmigrantswhocometotheUKthroughaBilateralMigrationAgreement(BMA).
6 ShallWeStayOrShallWeGo?

Ourresearchhasshownthatre-migrantsthemselvescouldbeausefulassetinthisarea.They
cangiveinsightsintolivingintheUKandinformationabouthowtomakeasuccessofit.This
couldincludeadvisingsomewould-bemigrantsthattheUKisnotagooddestinationfor
them,therebydeterringinappropriatemigration.
Theimpactsofmigrationandre-migrationshouldalsoformstrongerelementsofdevelopment
strategiesaimedatpoorercountries.Oneareathatcouldbefocusedonisthebuildingof
capacitywithinsendingcountriestogovernmigratoryflowsinandout.TheSpanish
governmenthasalreadyfinancedsuchaschemeinAfrica.TheUKcouldconsiderfollowing
thisleadthroughBMAs.
Ourresearchsuggeststhatifamigranthaslegalstatustheyaremorelikelythanirregular
migrantstomakeaconsideredchoicetoreturnormigrateonwards.Irregularityisthereforea
bartore-migration.TheGovernment’scurrentresponseisthatirregularswillberemoved,by
forceifnecessary.Butthisisnothappeningonascaletotacklethebacklog.Asmarter
approachisneeded,whichiswhywerecommendthatapathwaytoearnedregularisationfor
undocumentedmigrantsshouldbeputinplace.Regularisingthosewithoutstatusneednot
involvegivingthemtherightofsettlementorindefiniteleavetoremain;indeeditcould
explicitlybelinkedtoreturnmigrationafterasetperiod.
Althoughtherehavebeenimprovementsinrecentyears,withmoreontheway,thedataand
evidencethattheGovernmentisusingintryingtoplanmigrationflowsinandoutis
inadequate.TheUKcouldlearnfromothercountrieswhichcollectmoreinformationabout
immigrationandemigration.AparticularissueisthattheInternationalPassengerSurvey(IPS)
andtheLabourForceSurvey(LFS)donotcaptureinformationaboutmigrantsstayingfor
shortperiods–eventhoughmoremigrationisbecomingtemporaryandcircular.

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