The Long Cycle Theory

A new Outlook towards Global Politics is provided

by a theory that sees the whole of history in a
cyclic pattern through time, the Long Cycle Theory.
The theory draws its sources from the pre-modern
works, such as Thucydides and Polybius of Greek
City States. The objective of the theory is to
establish the findings of observable sequences into
a coherent body of thought, conceptualizing it into
a concrete social science paradigm.
Nikolai Kondratieff in 1920 and Amold Toynbee in
1950’s offered new cyclical approaches. Toynbee
argued that a major war had occurred about every
50 years throughout Modern History. Kondratieff
explained that there have been 3 major economic
objectives; since 1780’s each about 50 years long.
George Modelski explains that hegemonic wars
occur frequently and bring about a world leader
who presides over the international system for 100
years. The power of the Hegemon remains
unchallenged so long as a second challenger
emerges. To Model Ski there are 5 long cycles of
about a hundred years each. From 1494-1580,
Portugal is leading the power, 2) 1580-1688, the
Netherland is the leading power, 3) 1688-1792,

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Britain is the leading power, 4) 1792-1914, Britain
is again the leading power, and 1914-1973, the
United states is the leading power.
Josua Goldstein computes War data and compares
the data to economic indices of prices, capital
innovations and production. He recorded 10 long
cycles from 1495 to the present. With economic
uprisings, the upswings have 25th times the annual
battle fatalities as the down swings.
Kondratieff in a 1926 paper, surveyed both
production and price indices from 1780 to 1920. 1)
The rising wave of the first cycle. 2) From 1780 to
1790 was the second period and the downward
wave of the first cycle from the period 1810 to
1851. The period of social up heals occur during
the periods of the rising wave of each long cycle.
Another economist Schumpeter supplemented
Kondratieff significant changes in technical
discoveries and inventions, by suggesting that the
upswings were due to technical inventions.
However the method implemented by the analysts
has many drawbacks. Firstly, Model Ski does not
analyze Land Powers at all. The 16th Century Spain
and France under Louis 14 and the Napoleon are
excluded.
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Secondly, Portugal was not a The Hegemonic
leader as in 16th century. It was much weaker than
the Hapsburg Empire.
Thirdly, the changes of political groups in power
may not be sound reason for a hegemon’s ability to
form international coalitions.
The application of the Long Cycle theory in the
present 20th century is quite hard to implement to
predict the future as nobody can be sure of what
the growing technological and in case of India its
political scenario would be the next morning that is
after the general elections.
THE END

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