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+ =
Slope:
2 2
i
n
1 i
i i
n
1 i
x n x
y x n y x
b
=
=
=
Y-Intercept:
x b y a =
Escuela de Ingeniera de Transporte Facultad de Ingeniera PUCV
Juan Snchez R. Cadenas de Distribucin Pronsticos 16
91
EscueladeIngenieradeTransporte CadenasdeDistribucin Juan Snchez R.
53
Standard Error of the Estimate
( )
2
2
1 1 1
2
1
2
,
= = =
=
n
y x b y a y
n
y y
S
n
i
n
i
i i i
n
i
i
n
i
c i
x y
92
EscueladeIngenieradeTransporte CadenasdeDistribucin Juan Snchez R.
55
Sample Coefficient of
Correlation
(
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
1 =
2
1 =
2
1 =
2
1 =
2
1 = 1 = 1 =
n
i
n
i
i i
n
i
n
i
i i
n
i
n
i
n
i
i i i i
y y n x x n
y x y x n
r
93
EscueladeIngenieradeTransporte CadenasdeDistribucin Juan Snchez R.
57
r =1 r =-1
r =.89 r =0
Y
X
Y
i
=a +b X
i
^
Y
X
Y
X
Y
X
Y
i
=a +b X
i
^
Y
i
=a +b X
i
^
Y
i
=a +b X
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^
Coefficient of Correlation and
Regression Model
r
2
= square of correlation coefficient (r), is the percent of the
variation in ythat is explained by the regression equation
94
EscueladeIngenieradeTransporte CadenasdeDistribucin Juan Snchez R.
Fuente J . Holt Wilson & Deborah Allison-Koerber,
Combining Subjective and Objective Forecat Improves
Results, The J ournal of Business Forecasting, 1992.