Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
People. Processes. Technology. Results. By: Yasser M. El-Sheikh RTA - Public Transport Projects
Agenda
Risk Management Knowledge Sharing session Introductions and Overview Risk Management Planning Risk Identification Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Risk Monitoring & Control 05 mins 10 mins 10 mins 10 mins 10 mins 10 mins 10 mins 20 mins 10 mins
How to approach and conduct Risk Management activities Prepare Risk Management Plan
Risk Identification
3. Checklist Analysis
4. Assumptions Analysis 5. Diagramming Techniques Cause-and-effect diagram System or process flow charts Influence diagrams
4. Risk Register
4. Risk categorization
Overview
Performed on the Risks already prioritized by QRA Assigns the numerical value to the risk. Various techniques for assigning the numerical values Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision tree Analysis.
Objectives
Quantify the possible outcome of risk and its probability Identify the realistic and achievable cost, schedule and scope of the project Determine the management decision GO or NO-GO
3.
Risk Management Plan Roles and Responsibilities, risk categories, revised stakeholders
4.
Risk Register List of identified risks, Risk ranking and Risk Categorization
5.
EMV Analysis Expected monetary value is a statistical concept and calculates the average outcome of future scenario EMV = Each possible outcome of risk x probability of occurrence
Decision Tree Analysis It is a method to determine which of two decisions is the best to make e.g. Buy-verses-Build scenario, Lease-or-purchase equations, and use in-house resources rather than outsourcing.
Risk Response Planning is the process of developing options, and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project objectives.
How to approach and conduct Risk Response Planning Prepare Risk response Plan
2. Risk Register
3. Strategy for both Threats and Opportunities 4. Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats
Contingency reserves that are calculated based on the quantitative analysis of the project and the organisations risks thresholds. Risk response strategies, once agreed to, must be fed back in to the appropriate processes in other knowledge areas, including the projects budget and schedule. Contractual agreements, such as agreements for insurance, services, and other items as appropriate, can be prepared to specify each partys responsibility for specific risks, should they occur.
2. Risk Register 3. Approved Change Requests Impact on risk register Impact on risk response plan Impact on risk management plan
4. Work Performance Information Project deliverables status Corrective actions Performance reports Project work performance
5. Performance Report
2. Risk audits
1. Risk Register Updates Outcomes of Risk reassessment, Risk Audits and Risk Reviews Outcome of Projects risk, and of risk responses
4. Recommended Preventive Actions 5. Organizational Process Assets Updates 6. Project Management Plan Updates
1.Likelihood
2.Describe the scoring system for measuring the likelihood of the risk eventuating. Example:
Title
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Score
20
Description
Highly unlikely to occur; however, still needs to be monitored as certain circumstances could result in this risk becoming more likely to occur during the project Unlikely to occur, based on current information, as the circumstances likely to trigger the risk are also unlikely to occur Likely to occur as it is clear that the risk will probably eventuate Very likely to occur, based on the circumstances of the project Highly likely to occur as the circumstances which will cause this risk to eventuate are also very likely to be created
40 60 80 100
1.Impact
2.Describe the scoring system for measuring the impact of the risk. Example:
Title
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Score
20 40 60 80 100
Description
Insignificant impact on the project. It is not possible to measure the impact on the project as it is minimal Minor impact on the project, e.g. < 5% deviation in scope, scheduled end-date or project budget Measurable impact on the project, e.g. 5-10% deviation in scope, scheduled end-date or project budget Significant impact on the project, e.g. 10-25% deviation in scope, scheduled end-date or project budget Major impact on the project, e.g. >25%% deviation in scope, scheduled end-date or project budget
1.Priority
2.Establish the priority of each risk by identifying the likelihood of the risk's eventuating and its impact on the project. Once the likelihood and impact scores have been allocated, the priority score should be calculated as follows: Priority equals the average Likelihood and Impact score This is calculated as Priority = (Likelihood + Impact) / 2
ID
1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3
Likelihood
20 80 100 40 80 20
Impact
Priority Score
50 70 70 30 80 50
Rating
Medium High High Low Very High Medium
80 60 40 20 100 80
Transfer
TRANSFER Transfer the risk or the consequences Of the risk to a Third party, self Finance mechanism or to the insurance market TERMINATE Terminate the potential risk in the business the probability of occurrence is to high / when it occurs. The severity / financial impact will be too great for your business.
Terminate
Tolerate
Treat
Severity
Transfer
Terminate
Tolerate 0
Treat
Probability
Severity 10 Risk
10 Probability
Severity 10 Risk
10 Probability
Thank you