Probability and Poker

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To be a truly good poker player a fair knowledge of the laws of probability are essential. You should
at least know the chances of making up a particular hand. If you are seated at a poker table and have
drawn a flush, it would be very helpful to know what the chances are that one of your opponents
has put together a superior hand.
No doubt this sounds complicated, and some of the mathematics involved will be beyond the
average poker player's immediate ability, having no calculator handy and being pressured by his or
her fellow players to either "put up or shut up". This site is designed to help familiarize the
beginning player with the various hands and to give some brief notes on the best poker strategy
considering the probabilities involved.

1. Probability and the Royal Flush

2. Probability and the Straight Flush
3. Probability and Four of a Kind
4. Probability and the Full House
5. Probability and the Flush
6. Probability and the Straight
7. Probability and Three of a Kind
8. Probability and Two Pairs
9. Probability and One Pair
10. Probability of Getting No Hand

1. Probability and the Royal Flush

A royal flush, strictly speaking, is just a glorified straight flush. A royal flush in spades is
considered the highest possible hand. The chances of achieving it are only 1 in the 2,598,960 possible
hands. A great book to teach you how to calculate such numbers for yourself is Probability without
Tears by Derek Rowntree. This book would help you with the following calculations:
5/52 X 4/51 X 3/50 X 2/49 X 1/48 = 1/2,598,960
The first fraction is the chance of getting any one of 5 particular cards in the deck
(5 in 52, since there are 52 cards in the poker deck). The second fraction is your
chance of getting any one of 4 particular cards in the deck on your second card,
and so on through the fifth fraction or the fifth card. By multiplying them
together you find out what the chances are of coming up with any hand of unique
cards. The numerator of our fraction in this case represents our royal flush in
spades, while the denominator represents all the combinations possible.
If these odds seem long (many lotteries have better odds), take solace in the fact that your chances of
getting one of the four possible Royal Flushes dealt to you are four times as great (1 in 649,740). Now,
your chances of actually getting a royal flush in a game of poker depends largely on the game you are
playing. In draw poker, if you are dealt four of the cards needed your chance of picking up the final
card are actually pretty good, 1/47.
2. Probability and the Straight Flush
The definition of the straight flush includes the royal flush. It basically is made up of five cards all of
the same suit and in exact sequence. Rummy players commonly put such runs together in threes and
fours after many draws from the pack. However, in poker there are not so many opportunities to make
up a hand. Thus the odds of getting such a hand during a poker game are fairly remote. In looking at
the royal-flush we found out that the chance of coming up with any one exact hand, say a royal flush in
spades, is 1 in 2,598,960.
There are 40 possible straight flushes made up from the standard deck. This is easily illustrated by
showing the possibilities of getting a straight flush in any particular suit. Here are the possible
combinations:
A K Q J 10
K Q J 10 9
Q J 10 9 8
J 10 9 8 7
10 9 8 7 6
98765
87654
76543
65432
5 4 3 2
A
Thus all the combinations in one suit comes to ten. If we multiply this by the
four suits we can see that there are 40 out of 2,598,960 chances of being dealt a
straight flush. Now divide both aspects of our ratio by 40 to get 1/64,974. These
are still long odds but better than those of just getting a royal flush. Remember,
too, that if you are dealt four of the cards you need for a straight flush, the odds
on getting the other card you need are pretty good, 2 in 47.
"Why 2 in 47?" you may well ask. It is because often when you get
fourcards in a straight flush, all you need to fill it is one card on either end of the straight. For example,
you are dealt the 5,6,7,8 of clubs. If you get either the 4 of clubs or the 9 of clubs you have filled your
straight flush. The nice thing about going for the straight flush is that even if you fail in making the
"flush" portion of your hand you still have a shot at making the straight portion for which you only
need a 4 or 9 in any suit. This raises your chances considerably to 8 in 47.
You may have heard the expression, "He was foolish enough to draw to an inside straight". This
expression comes from the fact that if you get the outside cards of a straight flush (5,6,8,9 of clubs for
example), the chances of getting the 7 are only 1 in 47 half of those in drawing to an "outside" straight
flush and only one-eighth of the chance of drawing to a simple straight.
3. Probability and Four of a Kind
It would seem that 4 of a kind would be harder to get than a straight flush. After all there are only 13
different numbered cards in a deck. Yet it is more likely that you should be dealt 4 of a kind than a
straight flush. The reason is, you only need 4 cards to make up four of a kind, and you have five
chances to get them.
 The actual odds of getting 4 of a kind are one in 4165. This can be obtained by
figuring that there are 624 combinations of cards that make up four of a kind
out of 2,598,960 possible hands. How do we derive these 624 combinations?
13 X 48 = 624
Pretty simple really, 13 is the different numbered cards while the 48 is the
number of other cards available after 4 of a kind take up the first four
positions of a 5 card poker hand.
If you already have three of a kind your chances of achieving four of a kind after discarding 2 cards
improves markedly. This means that if you already have 3 of a kind, the wise move is to shoot for four
of a kind. Complete failure still leaves you with a tolerably good hand and the 2/47 chances that you
will get your fourth card are pretty good (considering). There is also the possibility of a making three of
a kind into a full house. The chances of doing so (drawing two cards and already holding three of a
kind) can be derived using the following calculation:
46/47 X 3/46 = 138/2162 = approximately 1/15.667
Where did these numbers come from? The denominator of 46/47 is the number of cards left in the deck.
The 46 represents the number of those cards that would allow you to get two of a kind. (We have to
allow for the fact that there is one card which you might draw from which it would be impossible to get
two of a kind - that would be one of the three of a kind that you already have in your possession - yet
drawing this card would be a good thing!) The denominator of 3/46 is the number of cards remaining in
the deck after your first draw. The 3 is the number of chances of getting the same card as your first
draw. The result, one chance in 16, is pretty good for getting your full house. Combined with the
opportunity to draw the 4th card of your 3 of a kind we have pretty good chances for this hand.
2/47 + 1/15.667 = approximately 1/10.5
Just over ten percent is pretty good odds on markedly improving an already good hand.
4. Probability and the Full House
One of the prettiest hands is the full house. As far as poker terminology goes, it has reached farthest
into common parlance. Getting dealt a full house is considered a lucky occurance, but it is frequent
enough to be within the realm of reasonable hope. Big families, big cards, big bets. So what are the
chances of being dealt a full house? First we need to compute how many combinations of the 52 cards
will result in a full house at the average poker table, using the average poker deck with no wild cards.
The following equation will give us this number:
(13 X 4) X (12 X 6) = 3744
The 4 in our equation is the number of combinations possible in each card
type (A, K, Q, etc.) that would bring about 3 of a kind. (The four
combinations for the 3, for example would be this: 3 of spades, 3 of hearts,
3 of diamonds together, then - 3 of spades, 3 of diamonds, 3 of clubs, then -
3 of spades, 3 of hearts, 3 of clubs, finally - 3 of hearts, 3 of diamonds, 3 of
clubs). The 13 represents the number of suits. The six represents the
combinations possible in pairs (two cards chosen from four possible
choices) and the 12 is the card types remaining after one is used up for the
 three of a kind part of the hand. Now, we take these possible hands and divide it into the total
possible of all hands:
3744/2,598,960 = 1 in 694
This, of course, is the possibility you have of actually being dealt a full house. It is unlikely but not as
remote as the previous hands we have examined. Here again there are many opportunities for moving
up from a lesser hand. Most notably relying on two pair to turn into a full house. The chances are pretty
good, for there are going to be 47 unknown cards to choose from and 4 of these will make the house
full. Thus, your chances are 4/47 at this point. Almost worth raising on - better than cutting the deck
and hoping for an ace.
5. Probability and the Flush
The flush is just a bit easier to get than a full house. It is a hand well worth trying for in a poker game.
To find out what the chances are of being dealt a flush we must resort to a bit of mathematics.
(4 X 1287) - 40 = 5108
The 4 in our equation comes from the number of suits. The 1287 is the number
of combinations possible of the thirteen cards within each suit. Now, in previous
hands the number of possibilities have been small enough that we could simply
lay them out on a piece of paper. But 1287 combinations is more than most
people want to puzzle through. But there is a simple mathematical formula for
getting this number. It goes something like this:
n!/((n-r)! X r!)
"Okay," you may ask, "what are these excamation points?" The answer is very simple ... they are
factorials. And factorials are the multiplication of a bunch of numbers in a series. For example, 4! = 4 X
3 X 2 X 1. The "n" in our equation is the number of different cards to choose from within a set. And the
r is the number of items we are trying to find. So this is how we got 1287:
13 X 12 X 11 X 10 X 9 / 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 = 1287
The (n - r)! part of the equation allows us to get rid of the lower end of our n! numerator. What we are
really doing is mathematically mimicking reality in our choices. Take a look at our choices possible in
the full house when we were looking at the possibilities of getting 3 of the 4 cards in any designation.
You will notice that the order of the arrangement is rigid here, but there are many "permutations" or
orders possible. The numerator of our fraction is actually giving us all the possible orders those cards
might appear in. Our denominator allows us to reduce this figure to pick the number of combinations in
any order.
If you go back to our first formula on the page you are probably wondering where that 40 came from.
That is easy. Since straight flushes are also a species of the flush, they have to be taken out in order to
come up with our chances of getting just a regular flush. You will see the same thing when we look at
the straights. Now for the formula that gives us the actual odds of getting a flush:
5108/2,598,960 = 1 in 509
The numerator is the number of flushes possible, while the denominator is the number of all possible
hands. The flush is one of the easiest hands to fill as the number of other cards available is pretty high.
If you are dealt 4 of a suit and go for one card the chances of getting it are 9/47 (number of cards
 remaining in the suit over the number of unknown cards). This is nine times better than wishing for a
single card out of the pack.

6. Probability and the Straight

It is almost exactly twice as easy to get a straight as it is to get a flush. A straight is a decent hand, still
worth being confident over. Yet, it is no match for the hands we have already studied. To find out the
chances of getting a straight, we first must find out how many possible ways there are of making up a
straight:
(10 X 1024) - 40 = 10,200
You will recall in the section on the straight flushthere are 10 sequences that
will make a straight flush (A,K,Q,J,10 through 5,4,3,2,A). For each one of
these 10 we must imagine drawing the cards we need. For example, for an
ace-high straight we first need to draw an ace, there are four opportunities to
pick out this ace. Then there are four kings, and four opportunities to draw
it, and so on throughout the ace-hight straight. Since we need five cards, we
multiply our five opportunities together to get 1024. Then we multiply this
by our 10 different kinds of straight. We subtract 40 to take away our 40
straight flush possibilities, which were already accounted for earlier.
To get the odds on the straight then is a simple matter of division:
10,200/2,598,960 = 1 in 255
The numerator is the number of straights possible, while the denominator is the number of all possible
hands. Getting dealt four of the five cards you need for this hand can be a boon or a curse. If you are
missing one of the middle cards (i.e. 8,7,_,5,4), your chances of making the hand are only 4/47. If you
have the middle cards (i.e. _'8,7,6,5,_) your chances are doubled to 8/47 because you only need to draw
a card on either end. This has given rise to some lexicography regarding the "inside straight".
7. Probability and Three of a Kind
Now we are getting into fairly common hands. You will seldom be dealt many of the previously
mentioned hands. However the three of a kind is seen fairly frequently by the average poker player.
Even so, it is a good hand to bet on and can be improved as a hand progresses. To find out the chances
of getting 3 of a kind, we first must find out how many possible ways there are of making up such a
hand:
((13 X 4) X (48 X 47 / 2)) - 3744 = 54,912
In this case the (13 X 4) gives us the 3 like cards as explained in the section
on the full house. The second section of the equation is the combinations that
can be made from the remaining two card positions. At the end we must
subtract off the possible combinations for full house, which is a glorified 3
of a kind we have already accounted for. (The possibilities for four of a kind
have already been excuded earlier in the formula.)
To get the odds on three of a kind can then be done by dividing by the
number of combinations possible:
 54,912/2,598,960 = 1 in 47
The numerator is the number of 3 of a kinds possible, while the denominator is the number of all
possible hands. Interestingly enough, your chances of getting dealt three of a kind are roughly equal to
filling an inside straight-flush. Three of a kind can easily build into better hands, 4 of a kind and full
houses. It can be gotten to easily from two of a kind with about a 1 in 8 chance on a three card draw:
47 X 46 X 45 / 3 X 2 = 16,215
2 X (45 X 44 / 2) = 1980
1980/16,215 = 1 in 8
Quickly, the first equation gives us the total combinations possible with the next three cards. The
second equation gives us the total combinations where one of the two remaining (from the previous 2
of a kind) are included. In the final equation we divide the number of possibilites that include one of the
two cards needed by the to total number of possibile combination of draws. The result is the probability
of making three of a kind from a pair drawing three cards.
8. Probability and Two Pairs
There are many chances of getting dealt two pairs. You may even be shocked at how common it is.
Even so, this does not mean that it is not a good hand to bet on, especially in the early rounds of a poker
hand when it might be improved upon. To find the odds of getting dealt two pair, we first need to find
the number of two-pair hands possible:
(((13 X 6) X (12 X 6))/2) X 44 = 123,552

The 13 X 6 is the thirteen card types times the number of ways to combine four cards to make 2 of a kind.
The twelve times six is the number of ways to combine four cards to make 2 of a kind in the remaining
twelve card types after the first type is selected. We then have to divide these by two in order to account for
the diminishing number of combinations resulting from the fact that fewer combinations are possible as a
limited number of pairs of cards are introduced. The 44 comes from the cards remaining to combine after
the first two sets have been chosen.
To get the odds on two pairs divide by the number of combinations of 5 cards possible:
123,552/2,598,960 = 1 in 20
Two pair can easily be made into a better hand. The chance of drawing one card to make the full
house are 4/47 (the four possible cards available to make up the full house, divided by the total number
of possibilities).
9. Probability and One Pair
One pair is the lowest possible of the combination hands in poker. It is so frequent as to be common.
Yet the greater hands are rare enough that it is often the winning hand. To find the chances of getting
this hand we must first get an idea of the number of one-pair combinations possible in a poker hand:
((13 X 6) X (48 X 47 X 46)/6) - 247,104 - 3744 = 1,098,240
Here, as in two pairs the 13 X 6 is the thirteen card types times the number of ways to combine four cards
to make 2 of a kind. The 48, 47, 46 are the remaining cards available to choose from on the three
subsequent cards, dividing this number by six results in the number of combinations possible from these
three cards. Then we must subtract out the possible 2 pairs and full houses.
 To get the odds on one pair divide by the number of combinations of 5 cards
possible:
1,098,240/2,598,960 = 1 in 2.3
This means within every three hands you should get at least a pair dealt to
you. Of course, this will not always happen. You can easily have a drought,
so never count on getting a pair just because you haven't had one for three
hands. Remember the odds of getting a hand never improve or decrease
based on what happened in a previous hand.
A single pair can be improved any number of ways on a draw of three cards to two-pairs (1/5.5), three
of a kind (1/8), full house (1/112), or even the loftyfour of a kind (1/360).
10. Probability of Getting No Hand
You can bet on anything. You can even bet on the worst hand possible, 2,3,4,5,7 of mixed suits. (The
odds of being dealt this particular combination are 1/2548 by the way). To calculate the high card hand
we can simply take all of the hands we have dealt with already and then subtract them from the total
possible hands. Below is a list of the total possible combinations for each type of hand:
Straight Flush 40
4 of a Kind 624
Full House 3744
Flush 5108
Straight 10,200
3 of a Kind 54,912
Two Pairs 123,552
One Pair 1,098,240
Total 1,296,420
Now we must subtract this total from the number of possible hands:
2,598,960 - 1,296,420 = 1,302,540
Now it is a simple matter of dividing our high card hands by the total possible hands:
1,302,540/2,598,960 = 1 in 2
This gives us about a 50% chance of getting nothing. But this also tells us that we have an even chance
of getting at least a pair.
Improving a high card hand can be tricky. The best strategy is probably to keep your two highest and
hope for a pair or better. Alternatively keep whatever cards you have of the same suit and hope for a
flush. Any close runs are also a possibility, however, going for the inside straight is questionable if the
raises are high.