Floods and droughts in Europe: Early warning, prevention & risk mapping Ad de Roo

WDNH research topics

Floods
Forecasting (EFA !
"# $ ($onau! "# E (El&e! "# ' ('der!

cenarios o% change (prevention!

$roughts

Risk mapping

(onitoring and %orecasting (E$A ! Floods, $roughts, Forest Fires, )eatwaves Future land use changes

patial planning

Aimed at European overview

,limate change

E%%ects on %lood*drought*%ire risk v+v+

E%%ects on %loods & droughts

-sing (.", $(", )adley scenarios

THE LISFLOOD MODEL

specifically developed to simulate floods in large European river basins spatially distributed and grid-based enabling the spatial variation of land use, soil properties and precipitation COMBINATION OF GRID-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL + 1D HYDRODYNAMIC CHANNEL FLOW ROUTING MODEL SPECIAL FEATURES (RESERVOIR OPERATIONS, LAKES, POLDERS) USING INITIAL CONDITIONS OBTAINED USING WATER BALANCE MODEL
MODEL INPUT

soil data, land use, topography and channel dimensions meteorological variables as rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and temperature
MODEL OUTPUT

the main output is river discharge any calculated variable can be reported as either maps, time series of maps or time series at selected point locations

EFAS < EDAS ($)#* !% LISFLOOD )=)&#'

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LISFLOOD

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!00 &bserved &rigi nal 00 Aff orestation

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- Soil, Surface, river catchment system,

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- River dimensions - Alert levels

F! #9$)&7%8 (EFAS)

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Special features. Early flood alert to /at0 1ydrological Services 24!3 hours4
. 'atchment based . 5robabilistic approach . ,nput to the (,' 2(onitoring and ,nformation 'entre of +6E/74 during crises

European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

Early %lood alert in%ormation to /ational )ydrological ervices (0 12 hrs, ma3 45 days! to complement the systems in ( ,atchment &ased: not depending on in%ormation %rom upstream catchments 60 ena&ling longer leadtime &y simulating entire catchment .ro&a&ilistic approach using di%%erent weather %orecasts and ensem&le weather %orecasts (E. ! 'verview and monitoring o% %lood situation in Europe (assist $7 E/8 (",!:
haring rescue resources during European crises

.otential &ackup %or national systems $anu&e6EFA is part o% the $anu&e Flood Action .lan o% ",.$R El&e6EFA contri&utes to "# E Flood Action .lan aims %or improving %orecasting

EFAS: structure
EU-FLOOD-GIS

DG ENTR: IDABC LISFLOOD-ALERT

EFAS forecast Alps Flood 21

! 2

"

8ech Reuss Aare

EFAS L#;#6 S (S#;# #) H (H78>) M (M#*7u') L (L!?) C!6! D#)9 7"&7!%

,sar Raba

very high possibility of flooding, potentially severe seriously increased river discharges 9ith high possibility of flooding 2li:ely e;ceeding ban:ful conditions4 significantly increased river discharges, no flooding e;pected river discharges increased, no flooding e;pected

#assau (Danu$e% D): EFAS forecast $ased on DWD

200$0!" 00 ; 200$0!" "2 200$0!"%00 200$0!"%"2 200$0!"!00 200$0!"!"2 200$0!"<00 200$0!"<"2 200$0!2000 200$0!20"2 200$0!2"00 200$0!2""2 200$0!2200 200$0!22"2 200$0!2#00 200$0!2#"2 200$0!2400 200$0!24"2 200$0!2$00 200$0!2$"2 ; ; ; ; ; ;

E;ternal alert report send

'ritical discharge predicted for 2#-2% August, 9ith pea:=e;treme at 24 August

River discharge

EFAS forecast Danu$e 22 Au& 2 "% $ased on DWD 'eather forecasts

>emporal evolution of flood threshold e;ceedance

date

EFAS forecast Alps Flood 21 ! 2 " : pro$a$ilistic: the pro$a$ility for a flood situation to occur

5ercent of flood E5S e;ceeding 1igh E*AS threshold based on forecast of 200$0!" "2-00, days before the flooding

8ech Reuss >emporal evolution of flood threshold e;ceedance Aare

,sar

22? # ?

Raba
"0?

Flood pre(ention: )*SE+FA#: El$e scenario studies

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R#)# ;!7 )&u*7#)1 S$$6# (JRC) M!6*$u (CHMI)

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F#$)7(767&= S&u*= D !u8>&) 1 &!?$ *) !A Eu !"#$% D !u8>& A6# & S=)&#' (EDAS)
Soil moisture development drought year "<% (odelled soil moisture moisture /ormali@ed modelled soil

F#$)7(767&= S&u*= D !u8>&)

. 'ase study"$ Auly "<% 2drought summer4 Soil moisture content B blue C 9et B red C dry

/ormali@ed soil moisture on "$ Auly "<%

Daily soil moisture de(elopment

oil suction averaged over /-9 : regions:

;55<: outhern .ortugal ;55:: 7ermany

Drou&ht monitorin&: realtime soil moisture on We$

,limate chan&e effects on floods - drou&hts

. Dsing "0-"2:m scenarios fromB 5RD+E/'E 2+anish (eteo ,nst, 1adley 'entre4 B (a; 5lanc:-1amburg

5roductsB D#&$76#* !;# ;7#? !A C67'$&# 9>$%8# . 'onsistent methodology #AA#9&) !% A6!!*) $%* . >ransboundary analysis * !u8>&) 7% Eu !"# . 5an-European hydrological model combined 9ithannual ma;imum daily precipitation B 'hanged *lood ris: +(,- change in average regional climate model B 'hanged +rought ris: .
(ost areas in Europe are blue meaning they face an increase

#otential flood ha.ard map of Europe

. . (ethodology under development &ver-estimation of flood ha@ard in small tributary rivers

,omparison 01hine Atlas and 21, European flood ha.ard map

/alidation:

3apsheet 1"% 3ain. 4 Wies$aden

&D>8&&E. Dsing SR>( and ''(2 . Dsing 8,S*8&&+-*5 for flood ha@ard = inundation modelling

From ha.ard to ris5 maps

=>

E3posure to %lood ha=ard: historical analysis at E- level

C! 7%# 155+/-+++ F6!!* H$B$ * M$"

by Elisabetta Genovese

E3posure to %lood ha=ard: historical analysis at E- level

G !?7%8 #C"!)u # &! A6!!*) 7% Eu !"# (#&?##% 155+--+++

00 $00 400 KMD #00 200 "00 0 -"00

Main developments occurred in areas potentially effected by flood

by Elisabetta Genovese

Looking to the future : Scenarios and exposure to flood hazard

$evelopment scenarios: : hypotheses o% growth
Scenario A: 7o' &ro'th $ased on historical trend 1esidential land demands ame as %or the end o% @5?s Scenario 6: 3edium &ro'th $ased on EEA outloo5s $emand "ncreases &y <5A Scenario ,: Hi&h &ro'th due to motor'ay impact $emand increases &y <5A

)ndustrial% commerce and ser(ices

ame as %or the end o% @5?s

"ndustrial area remain the same, $emand %or commercial and services? land use dou&les

"ndustrial area remain the same, $emand %or commercial and services? land use dou&les

)mportance of motor'ays

>ow

(edium

)igh

De(elopment in Dresden ur$an area: simulations usin& 387AND

Scenario A 2lo94

Scenario F 2baseline4

Scenario ' 2high4

9r$an de(elopment in flood ha.ard areas in ,.ech 1epu$lic

2000

"$00 residential continuous residential discontinuous >$ "000 industrial areas commercial services $00

000 2000 'urrent trends 2020 Faseline 2020 (otor9ay 2020

8n&oin& and future challen&es

Esta&lish an improved data availa&ility:
-sing "/ ."RE principles "mproved cali&ration, validation

E-6F>''$67" (BR,6C$/)!: historic and static hydrometeo data "$AD, >" F>''$ A>ER9 (BR,6C$/)!: realtime discharge (7R$,! oil data (BR,6E D!, currently 4(, ;<5k ongoing, %urther detailE )igh resolution $E( %or Europe (&etter than R9(F >"$AR Guality! %or %lood risk mapping (7(E E! 'ther satellite &ased products (snow water eGuivalent, soil moisture! 9"77E * )E.EH
-pdating model simulations (data assimilation!

-sing multi6model outputs, &oth deterministic and pro&a&ilistic (ensem&les! to estimate %lood & drought pro&a&ility & uncertainty

,ommunication o% uncertainty (%lood pro&a&ility! to end6users and general pu&lic >inking climate change, land use changes with %lood & drought risk: inclusion o% %eed&ack mechanisms: E3amine the earliest possi&le moment to issue relia&le warnings &ased on multi6model and pro&a&ilistic model outputs -se o% monthly and seasonal %orecasts %or droughts Applying and %urther development o% the tools outside Europe
E3ample >" F>''$ & ('>A/$

!e" #i e: $ %:&&'a (ra)-$a*ard#.jrc.i

ad.de-roo@jrc.i

WDNH ser(ice re:uirements

European (access point! %or hydro6meteorological metadata
Actively updated &y countries & /)( "ncluding access policy & distri&ution rights "ncluding pricing policy 8ertical re%erence system in%o

)armoni=ation o% data speci%ications:

Automated data6%low %rom data owner (/)( ! to application*user (e+g+ EFA , E$A ! $issemination o% results: providing controlled access to we&services with results (e+g+ %orecasts, damage & risk mapping! 8isuali=e availa&le data per varia&le per timewindow per geographic area 8iew service to access topographic &ackground in%ormation (e+g+ %lood e3tent com&ined with critical in%rastructure, &uildings, I! tandardi=ed download service %or %ast data delivery

)NS#)1E impact
Some pro$lems to $e addressed )ydro6(eteorological in%ormation*data hard to %ind )NS#)1E solutions "/ ."RE will: 6'&lige pu&lic &odies to create metadata 6(ake sure that this metadata is made availa&le through catalog or we& services 6,reate a European6wide access point %or discovery "/ ."RE will make data policies and licenses transparent "/ ."RE will esta&lish harmoni=ed data speci%ications (e+g+, spatial re%erence systems, grid!, including speci%ications %or trans%ormation and e3change o% in%ormation "/ ."RE will %acilitate the delivery o% products via secure, re6usa&le, we& services "/ ."RE will provide %ree view services and on line access to critical in%rastructure

.olicies %or )ydro6(eteorological in%ormation*data hinder data acGuisition 9ime6consuming data conversion (%ormat, units, re%erence systems, etc+!F time6consuming real6time data collection ensitive products (%orecasts, risk maps, damage maps! need to &e delivered to $7s and /) $i%%iculty in access critical in%rastructure, &uildings