Factors Associated with Success Among NBA Teams ISSN: 1543-9518

Submitted by: Anthony J. Onwuegbuzie

Abstract Data from the 1997-1998 National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season were analy e! to !etermine factors that best "re!icte! success# as measure! by winning "ercentage$ A total of %& 'ariables were e(amine!$ A multi"le regression analysis re'eale! that fiel! goal con'ersion "ercentage was the best "re!ictor of success# e("laining )1$*+ of the 'ariance in winning "ercentage$ ,he a'erage three-"oint con'ersion "ercentage of the o""osing teams e("laine! a further 18$9+ of the 'ariance$ ,hese two 'ariables combine! e("laine! 8&$-+ of the 'ariance in winning "ercentage$ ,he fin!ing "ertaining to fiel! goal con'ersion "ercentage suggest that the attainments of the offense are more im"ortant than are the !efensi'e attainments in "re!icting the success le'els of NBA teams$ ,hese an! other im"lications are !iscusse!$

Introduction The game o !as"et!a## was in$ented in %ecem!er 1891 !& %r' (ames A' Naismith whi#e an instructor in the )h&sica# training de)artment o the Internationa# *oung +en,s -hristian Association .*+-A/ Training Schoo# in S)ring ie#d0 +assachussets .Fo10 1924/' Naismith,s goa# was to answer the cha##enge o %r' 3uther 4' 5u#ic"0 his de)artment head0 who wanted an indoor game to !e in$ented that .1/ wou#d attract &oung men during the winter0 when !ase!a## and oot!a## were out o season0 and .6/ wou#d re)#ace g&mnastics and ca#isthenics0 which )ro$o"ed #itt#e interest .Fo10 1924/' Naismith0 "nown as 7the ather o !as"et!a##07 incor)orated eatures o soccer0 8'S' oot!a##0 rug!& oot!a##0 ie#d hoc"e&0 and other outdoor s)orts in de$e#o)ing the game o !as"et!a##' B& 19490 )ro essiona# !as"et!a## had ac:uired a #arge and aith u# o##owing among 8'S' s)orts ans0 who wanted to watch their ormer co##egians in action' %uring this )eriod0 there was the American Bas"et!a## 3eague .AB3/ on the ;ast -oast and the Nationa# Bas"et!a## 3eague .NB3/ in the +idwest' In (une0 19490 the Bas"et!a## Association o America was ormed0 which e ecti$e#& re)#aced the AB3 and com)eted direct#& with the NB3 .Fo10 1924/' The BAA and the NB3 merged in 195< as the Nationa# Bas"et!a## Association .NBA/0 com)rising 12 teams' The NBA was reduced to 1< teams in 19510 as 2 NB3 teams with margina# ranchises dro))ed out .Fo10 1924/' 4owe$er0 in the 192<s0 the NBA e1)anded to 66 teams' =resent#&0 the NBA contains 69 teams0 with 15 teams in the ;astern -on erence .with 2 teams re)resenting the At#antic di$ision and 8 teams re)resenting the -entra# di$ision/ and 14 teams in the >estern -on erence .with 2 teams re)resenting the +idwest di$ision and 2 teams re)resenting the =aci ic di$ision/' Bas"et!a## is now one o the most )o)u#ar s)orts in the 8nited States' Indeed0 in the 1992-1998 season .the #ast time a u## 86-game season was )#a&ed/0 a tota# o 8082203<9 )eo)#e attended an NBA game .The S)orts Networ"0 1998/0 with an a$erage attendance o 120135 )eo)#e )er game .8SAT?%A*0 1999/' -urrent#&0 at the end o the regu#ar season0 that is0 when each team has )#a&ed 86 matches0 the to) eight teams in each con erence :ua#i & or the )#a&o s' These eight teams then )artici)ate in a "noc"out tournament with the e$entua# winners o this stage within each con erence ad$ancing to the NBA ina#s' Because the teams which ad$ance to the )#a&o s are those that ha$e the highest winning )ercentages in

their res)ecti$e di$isions during the regu#ar season0 "now#edge o actors which )redict success during this )eriod wou#d !e o educationa# $a#ue or NBA coaches and ana#&sts' Indeed0 the ormer grou) cou#d use this in ormation to target coaching inter$entions' Bas"et!a## is a!ound with em)irica# acts' Sur)rising#&0 howe$er0 on#& descri)ti$e statistics .e'g'0 a$erages0 tota#s0 )ercentages/ tend to !e uti#i@ed' -on$erse#&0 ew in erentia# statistica# ana#&ses are underta"en on NBA data' *et0 such ana#&ses )ro$ide consumers with in ormation regarding the re#ationshi)s among $aria!#es' As such0 in erentia# statistics can &ie#d $er& detai#ed and im)ortant in ormation to consumers o )ro essiona# !as"et!a##' +oreo$er0 in erentia# statistics can !e used to determine actors that )redict the )er ormance #e$e#s o teams' To date0 on#& a ew studies ha$e in$estigated corre#ates o !as"et!a##-re#ated )er ormance' ? those that ha$e0 the maAorit& ha$e in$o#$ed an e1amination o )s&cho#ogica# antecedents o !as"et!a## )er ormance' For e1am)#e0 >hitehead0 But@0 Baughn0 and Co@ar .1999/ ound that increased stress .assumed to !e )resent in games as o))osed to )ractices/ among mem!ers o an N-AA %i$ision I men,s $arsit& team was associated with #onger )re-shot )re)arations and a greater incidence o o$erthrown shots' New!& and Sim)son .1994/ re)orted .1/ a statistica##& signi icant negati$e re#ationshi) !etween minutes )#a&ed !& a sam)#e o men and women co##ege !as"et!a## )#a&ers and mood0 .6/ a statistica##& signi icant negati$e re#ationshi) !etween the num!er o assists and de)ression0 .3/ a statistica##& signi icant negati$e re#ationshi) !etween the num!er o turno$ers committed and mood0 and .4/ a statistica##& signi icant )ositi$e re#ationshi) !etween the num!er o turno$ers committed and degree o tension' The researchers conc#uded that success in !as"et!a## is negati$e#& re#ated to )s&cho)atho#og&' Both =argman0 Bender0 and %eshaires .1925/ and Browne .1995/ ound no re#ationshi) !etween reethrow and ie#d goa# shooting and ie#d inde)endenc&D ie#d de)endenc&' Additiona##&0 Shic" .1921/ ound no re#ationshi) !etween hand-e&e dominance and de)th )erce)tion and ree-throw shooting a!i#it& in co##ege women' 4a## and ;r me&er .1983/ e1amined the e ect o imager& com!ined with mode#ing on ree-throw shooting )er ormance among ema#e co##ege !as"et!a## students' These researchers noted that )#a&ers who shot ree throws under the conditions o $ideota)ed mode#ing com!ined with re#a1ation and imager& were signi icant#& more accurate than were those who shot in the re#a1ation and imager& condition on#&' A## the a!o$e studies in$estigated corre#ates o s)eci ic !as"et!a## s"i##s .e'g'0 ree-throw shooting/0 and0 with a ew e1ce)tions .e'g'0 But@ et a#'0 1999/0 these s"i##s t&)ica##& were e1amined under simu#ated conditions' Such studies0 a#though interesting0 ha$e #imited uti#it& or !as"et!a## coaches0 in )articu#ar0 !ecause the& does not )ro$ide an& in ormation as to wh& or how a team wins a !as"et!a## game' Indeed0 the on#& in:uir& ound determining actors associated with success among !as"et!a## )#a&ers was that o Steen#and and %eddens .1992/' These researchers studied the e ects o tra$e# and rest on )er ormance0 uti#i@ing the resu#ts or 80495 regu#ar season NBA games o$er eight seasons .1982-1988 through 19941995/' Findings re$ea#ed a statistica##& signi icant )ositi$e re#ationshi) !etween the amount o the time that e#a)sed !etween games and )er ormance #e$e#' S)eci ica##&0 more than 1 da& !etween games was associated with a mean increase o 1'1 )oints or the home team and 1'9 )oints or the $isitors' =ea" )er ormance occurred with 3 da&s !etween games' The researchers theori@ed that the negati$e e ects o #itt#e time !etween games ma& !e due more to insu icient time or )h&sica# reco$er& than to the e ects o circadian rh&thm .i'e'0 Aet #ag/' 4owe$er0 a#though not statistica##& signi icant0 the& a#so ound that $isiting

teams )er ormed our )oints !etter0 on a$erage0 when the& tra$e#ed rom the west coast to the east coast than when the& tra$e#ed orm east to west' Sur)rising#&0 no other stud& has in$estigated )redictors o success among NBA teams' ;$en more sur)rising is the act that no research a))ears to ha$e e1amined what actors direct#& associated with s"i## #e$e# .e'g'0 ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentage/ !est )redict a team,s winning )ercentage' This was the )ur)ose o the )resent in:uir&' A secondar& goa# was to determine whether o ensi$e or de ensi$e actors wou#d ha$e more )redicti$e )ower' It was e1)ected that "now#edge o these actors cou#d he#) coaches to decide where to ocus their attention0 as we## as assist ana#&sts and ans in )redicting a team,s )er ormance' +ethod The data com)rised a## 61 uni:ue team-#e$e# $aria!#es .when !oth team a$erages and tota#s were )resented0 on#& the a$erages were uti#i@ed0 since the& rendered tota#s redundant/ that were )resented on the o icia# NBA we!site .i'e'0 htt):DDwww'n!a'com/ or the 1992-1998 regu#ar )ro essiona# !as"et!a## season' .The 1992-1998 NBA season was chosen !ecause it re)resented the #ast time a u## 86-game season was )#a&ed'/ These $aria!#es com)rised winning )ercentage0 which was treated as the de)endent measure and 6< other $aria!#es which were uti#i@ed as inde)endent $aria!#es' A## $aria!#es are )resented in Ta!#e 1' Scores )ertaining to each $aria!#e or each team were ana#&@ed using the Statistica# =ac"age or the Socia# Sciences .S=SSE S=SS Inc'0 1999/'

Table 1 Pearson Product-Moment Correlations of Winning Percentage and Selected Variables for the 1997-1998 Regular N ! Season Winning Percentage three-"oint con'ersion "ercentage $-8 fiel! goal con'ersion "ercentage $78. free-throw con'ersion "ercentage $&a'erage number of offensi'e reboun!s "er game -$-1 a'erage number of !efensi'e reboun!s "er game $*7 number of total reboun!s $19 a'erage number of assists "er game $)1. a'erage number of steals "er game $&8 a'erage number of blocks "er game -$1number of "oints score! "er game $/7. fiel! goal con'ersion "ercentage of the o""osing teams -$)8. a'erage three-"oint con'ersion "ercentage of the o""osing teams -$/& a'erage free-throw con'ersion "ercentage of the o""osing teams $18 a'erage number of offensi'e reboun!s "er game of the o""osing -$*9 teams Variable

a'erage number of !efensi'e reboun!s "er game of the o""osing teams a'erage number of total reboun!s of the o""osing teams a'erage number of assists "er game of the o""osing teams a'erage number of steals "er game of the o""osing teams a'erage number of blocks "er game of the o""osing teams a'erage number of "oints score! "er game of the o""osing teams . statistically significant after the Bonferroni a!0ustment

-$71. -$)9. -$7&. -$*/ -$/8. -$7&.

Results and Discussion Ta!#e 1 )resents the corre#ations !etween winning )ercentage and each o the se#ected $aria!#es' It can !e seen that0 a ter adAusting or T&)e I error .i'e'0 the Bon erroni adAustment/0 winning )ercentages increased with ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentage0 num!er o assists )er game0 and num!er o )oints scored )er game0 and decreased with ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentage o the o))osing teams0 a$erage num!er o de ensi$e re!ounds )er game o the o))osing teams0 a$erage num!er o tota# re!ounds )er game o the o))osing teams0 a$erage num!er o assists )er game o the o))osing teams0 a$erage num!er o !#oc"s )er game o the o))osing teams0 and a$erage num!er o )oints )er game o the o))osing teams' An a## )ossi!#e su!sets .A=S/ mu#ti)#e regression .Thom)son0 1995/ was used to identi & which com!ination o inde)endent $aria!#es !est )redicted NBA teams, success' Again0 success was measured !& NBA teams, regu#ar season winning )ercentages' For this stud&0 the criterion used to determine ade:uac& o the mode# was the ma1imum )ro)ortion o $ariance e1)#ained .i'e'0 F6/0 which )ro$ides an im)ortant measure o e ect si@e .-ohen0 1988/' S)eci ica##&0 a## $aria!#es were inc#uded e1ce)t or those that re)resented .1/ the tota# num!er o )oints scored or the tota# num!er o re!ounds .use o the num!er o de ensi$e re!ounds and o ensi$e re!ounds rendered use o the tota# num!er o re!ounds redundant/' -onse:uent#&0 a tota# o 19 inde)endent $aria!#es were ana#&@ed' The mu#ti)#e regression ana#&sis re$ea#ed that the o##owing two $aria!#es made a statistica##& signi icant contri!ution .F G60 69H I 53'160 ) J '<<<1/ to the mode#: ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentage and a$erage three-)oint con$ersion )ercentage o the o))osing teams' The regression e:uation was as o##ows: winning )ercentage I -159'53 K L.2'9</ M ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentageN - L.4'64/ M a$erage three-)oint con$ersion )ercentage o the o))osing teamsN The regression e:uation indicates that e$er& 1 )ercentage increase in ie#d goa# con$ersion rate is associated with a 2'9<O increase in winning )ercentage' The con idence inter$a# corres)onding to this $aria!#e suggests that we are 95O certain that e$er& 1 )ercentage increase in ie#d goa# con$ersion rate is associated with an a$erage increase in winning )ercentage o !etween 9'<<O and 9'8<O' Additiona##&0 e$er& 1 )ercentage increase in the three-)oint con$ersion rate o the o))osing teams is associated with a 4'64O decrease in winning )ercentage .95O con idence inter$a# is 6'49O to 5'99O/' >ith res)ect to )redicti$e )ower o the mode#0 ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentage e1)#ained 91'4O o the $ariance in winning )ercentages0 whereas a$erage three-)oint con$ersion )ercentage o the o))osing teams e1)#ained 18'9O' These two $aria!#es com!ined to e1)#ain 8<'3O o the tota# $ariance in winning

)ercentage .adAusted F6 I 28'8O/' In the stud& o human !eha$ior0 this )ercentage is e1treme#& #arge0 suggesting that an NBA team,s success can !e )redicted with an e1ce##ent degree o accurac&' Conclusions The )ur)ose o this stud& was to determine which $aria!#es !est )redict whether an NBA team,s success rate' The inding that ie#d goa# con$ersion )ercentage e1)#ains more than three times the $ariance in success than does the a$erage three-)oint con$ersion )ercentage o the o))osing teams suggests that the attainments o the o ense are more im)ortant than are the de ensi$e attainments in )redicting whether an NBA team wi## !e success u#' Thus0 the )resent inding is in contrast to ?nwueg!u@ie .1999a/0 who identi ied our mu#ti)#e regression mode#s which ade:uate#& )redicted the winning )ercentages o Nationa# Foot!a## 3eague .NF3/ teams or the 1992-1998 regu#ar oot!a## season--the most nota!#e !eing a two-$aria!#e mode# com)rising turno$er di erentia# .which e1)#ained 43'4O o the $ariance in success/ and tota# num!er o rushing &ards gained !& the o ense .which e1)#ained a urther 9'3O o the $ariance/' Based on these mode#s0 ?nwueg!u@ie conc#uded that0 outside the 6<-&ard @one0 the attainments o the de ense are more im)ortant than are the o ensi$e attainments in )redicting whether an NF3 team is success u#' The )resent resu#t )ertaining to NBA teams a#so is in contrast to ?nwueg!u@ie,s .1999!/ re)#ication stud& o NF3 teams or the 1998-1999 oot!a## season in which a mode# was identi ied containing the o##owing i$e $aria!#es: .1/ turno$er di erentia# .which e1)#ained 54'4O o the $ariance/E .6/ tota# num!er o rushing &ards conceded !& the de ense .which e1)#ained 61'3O o the $ariance/E .3/ tota# num!er o )assing irst downs attained !& the o ense .which e1)#ained 9'4O o the $ariance/0 .4/ )ercentage o third-down )#a&s that )roduce a irst down .which e1)#ained 4'1O o the $ariance/0 and .5/ tota# num!er o )ena#ties conceded !& the o))onents, de ense resu#ting in a irst down .which e1)#ained 4'1O o the $ariance/' ?nwueg!u@ie conc#uded that de ensi$e gains are !etter )redictors o success than are o ensi$e gains !ecause the irst two $aria!#es0 which e1)#ained more than 25O o the $ariance0 were characteristics o the de ense' The inding that ie#d goa# )ercentage rate e1)#ained a $er& #arge )ro)ortion o the $ariance in success .i'e'0 91'4O/ high#ights the im)ortance o o ensi$e e icienc& not on#& o the starting )#a&ers !ut a#so o the 7!ench7 )#a&ers0 since the #atter grou) a#so contri!ute to the ie#d goa# )ercentage rate' Ne$erthe#ess0 the act that three-)oint con$ersion )ercentage a#so made a contri!ution to the regression mode#0 a#!eit a sma##er one0 suggests the im)ortance o teams orcing the o))osition to hurr& their three-)oint shots and to ta"e these shots rom non-o)tima# )arts o the !as"et!a## court' A#though a signi icant )ro)ortion o the $ariance in winning )ercentage was e1)#ained !& the se#ected $aria!#es0 this stud& a#so shou#d !e re)#icated using data rom other seasons' Furthermore0 regression mode#s shou#d !e itted using co##ege !as"et!a## data' In ormation rom such ana#&ses shou#d he#) coaches and ana#&sts a#i"e to o!tain o!Aecti$e data which can !e used to monitor the )er ormance o NBA teams' References Browne0 5'S' .1995/' Cognitive style and free throw shooting ability of female college athletes ' 8n)u!#ished master,s thesis0 Ba#dosta State 8ni$ersit&0 Ba#dosta0 5eorgia' -ohen0 (' .1988/ Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences' New *or": >i#e&'

Fo10 3' .1924/' Illustrated history of basketball. New *or"0 N*: 5rosset P %un#a)' 4a##0 ;'5'0 P ;r me&er0 ;'S' .1983/' The e ect o $isuo-motor !eha$ior rehearsa# with $ideo ta)ed mode#ing o ree-throw shooting accurac& o interco##egiate ema#e !as"et!a## )#a&ers' Journal of Sport Psychology, 50 343-349' New!&0 F'>'0 P Sim)son0 S' .1994/' Bas"et!a## )er ormance as a unction o scores on )ro i#e o mood states' Perceptual and otor Skills, !"0 1146' ?nwueg!u@ie0 A'(' .1999a/' %e ense or ? enseQ >hich is the !etter )redictor o success or )ro essiona# oot!a## teamsQ Perceptual and otor Skills, "#0 151-159' ?nwueg!u@ie0 A'(' .1999!0 No$em!er/' Is defense or offense more important for professional football teams$ % replication study using data from the &##"'&### regular football season. =a)er )resented at the annua# meeting o the +idsouth ;ducationa# Fesearch Association0 =oint -#ear0 A3' =argman0 %'0 Bender0 ='0 P %eshaires0 =' .1925/' -orre#ation !etween $isua# disem!edding and !as"et!a## shooting !& ma#e and ema#e $arsit& ath#etes' Perceptual and otor Skills, (&0 959' Shic"0 (' .1921/' Fe#ationshi)s !etween de)th )erce)tion and hand-e&e dominance and ree-throw shooting in co##ege women' =erce)tua# and +otor S"i##s0 330 539-546' S=SS Inc' .1999/ SPSS #.) for *indows. G-om)uter so twareH' -hicago0 I3: S=SS Inc' Steen#and0 C'0 P %eddens0 ('A' .1992/' ; ect o tra$e# and rest on )er ormance o )ro essiona# !as"et!a## )#a&ers' Sleep, +).5/0 399-399' The S)orts Networ"' .1998/' Statistics: 1992-1998 NBA attendance' ,he Sports -etwork, +&.61/' Thom)son0 B' .1995/' Ste)wise regression and ste)wise discriminant ana#&sis need not a))#& here: A guide#ines editoria#' .ducational and Psychological easurement, 550 565-534' 8SAT?%A*' .%ecem!er 680 1999/' Inside the numbers. Fetrie$ed (anuar& 680 6<<< rom the >or#d >ide >e!:htt):DDwww'usatoda&'comDs)ortsD!as"et!aDs"nDnum!ers'htm' >hitehead0 F'0 But@0 ('>'0 Baughn0 F';'0 P Co@ar0 B' .1999/' Stress and )er ormance: An a))#ication o 5ra&,s three- actor arousa# theor& to !as"et!a## ree-throw shooting' Journal of Sport /ehavior, &#.4/0 354-394' Footnote 1 %ue to s)ace constraints0 the intercorre#ations among a## the $aria!#es is not )resented' 4owe$er0 this can !e o!tained !& contacting the author'

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