ANNEX B-1

Typologies of Shocks and Risks

ODXP PREVENTION & RECOVERY WPRLD FOOD PROGRAMME

ANNEX B-I: TYPOLOGIES OF SHOCKS AND RISKS

Annex B-1 provides an overview of shocks and risks as a contextual backdrop when identifying the most appropriate entry points for FFA. An understanding of shock and risks contexts is essential when determining which of the Strategic Objectives the FFA activities are addressing, which of the programme categories is more applicable, and to build the necessary rationales to support these decisions. For example, agrarian livelihoods in areas with a demonstrated high occurrence of and risk to floods could require both an SO1 objective to save lives and livelihoods during floods and an SO3 objective for early recovery after these shock events, within a PRRO. Areas at risk to tropical storms in degraded landscapes may require FFA programming to rehabilitate land to build community resilience to flood and landslide risks through an SO2 objective in a Country Programme, etc. The shocks and risks outlined below will be relevant and can occur and/or affect all livelihood contexts in which WFP operates, although in potentially different ways. Consider for example the impact of a drought for rural farming communities reliant mostly on their crop production for own consumption and income, and how this would impact on an urban settlement located in the same area where urban livelihoods are driven by employment and income generation, and shortages of cereals from the surrounding areas leads to increased food prices. The shocks and risks described in this Annex are not exhaustive, but represent the most frequent contexts in which WFP operates in and for which FFA can have an essential role in terms of prevention, mitigation, and adaptation. It provides an overall description of these shocks, and where relevant will highlight potential different impacts these may have in different livelihood contexts. Main shocks discussed in Annex B-1 are: 1 2 DROUGHTS (SLOW ONSET SHOCKS) ............................................................................................................ 4 IMPACT OF DROUGHTS AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA ........................................................................................ 5 TROPICAL CYCLONES AND FLOODS (RAPID ONSET SHOCKS) ...................................................................... 6 GEOGRAPHICALLY AT RISK COUNTRIES .......................................................................................................... 7 TOPOGRAPHICALLY AT RISK COUNTRIES .................................................................................................... 7 SOIL RISK COUNTRIES ................................................................................................................................. 8 IMPACTS OF STORMS AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA ........................................................................................... 8 3 4 5 6 7 ECONOMIC SHOCKS .................................................................................................................................... 9 IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA ......................................................................... 9 CONFLICT .................................................................................................................................................. 10 IMPACTS OF CONFLICT AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA ....................................................................................... 10 EARTHQUAKES .......................................................................................................................................... 11 PESTS AND DISEASE OUTBREAKS .............................................................................................................. 11 MULTIPLE SHOCKS .................................................................................................................................... 12 SEQUENCE OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS ...................................................................................................... 12

DROUGHTS (SLOW ONSET SHOCKS)

...well-managed land will recover from droughts with minimal adverse effects when the rains return. The deadly combination is land abuse during good periods and its continuation during periods of deficient rainfall (H.E. Dregne 1986).

Many parts of the world - and agricultural lands - are recurrently affected by periods of drought. Proportionally, semi-arid and subtropical countries are increasingly affected by droughts and seasonal variations in rainfall. At current rates of population pressure which accelerate soil erosion levels combined with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, drought events seem to occur with increasingly shorter intervals. There is now evidence that the recurrence of droughts in several countries (e.g. Kenya, Ethiopia, India, etc) seems to have considerably increased in the last two to three decades. The worsening of climatic conditions is often taken as a reason for drought occurrence in recent years. Surely, the effects of global warming and climatic fluctuations (for example triggered by the el Nio and la Nia currents, etc.) have in the last few years had a key role in influencing levels and extent of droughts. However, different factors exacerbate the occurrence, causes and effects of droughts. Droughts are often the result of a combination of adverse climatic conditions and human and animal pressure on limited resources. In a number of countries already affected by decades of land degradation, droughts and consequent hunger are the direct consequence of the mismanagement of land resources, as climatic conditions alone would not generate ecological disasters and food insecurity of current magnitudes.

This indicates that the frequency and the negative effects of a drought increase more or less proportionally to the degree of poor utilization of the land. The main fact is that: Droughts manifest mainly in dry lands, but is now increasingly occurring in sub-tropical and subhumid areas A rainfall deficit is always present The land is often poorly managed Cattle population is often in excess and far beyond the soil and vegetative carrying capacity of the land Population pressure on the natural resource base is often high

IMPACT OF DROUGHTS AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA

Droughts will have different impacts on different livelihoods, which need to be understood (typically through assessments) to tailor FFA accordingly. In general terms, droughts are likely to result in food gaps for the most vulnerable and poorest sector of the population, or for those with limited capacities to cope with the shock. It is these food gaps, and the need to provide assistance to fill this gap, that provides WFP the entry point for response. In agrarian contexts, droughts will more than likely result in crop losses thereby affecting household own consumption and the ability to generate income through agricultural sales. During times of drought cereal shortages are experienced and unless there are Government policies to import stocks and regulate/subsidize grain prices, then cereal prices will increase. For farmers, the loss or reduction of consumption from their own harvests means they need to purchase cereals from the market, at higher prices, and at a time where they have reduced income as they do not have surpluses to sell. Other risks are the depletion of seed stocks and the distress sale of draught animals, both extreme coping strategies that will negatively impact subsequent cultivation seasons. FFA activities geared towards water capture during times of drought could be a key consideration. In pastoral contexts, droughts lead to the extended movements of pastoralists with their livestock in search of water and pastures. These movements take on two aspects firstly pastoralists will travel further and out of their typical ranges, and secondly they will be away from their more permanently settled areas. Additionally, the nature of the transhumance may vary according to country and pastoral types for example, the entire household participates in the pastoralist Kuchi migrations in Afghanistan; for the Hamer pastoralists in Ethiopia, it is only the young adults and men that move with the herds whilst the women, children, and elderly stay behind at the homestead, etc. Droughts leads to reduced milk availability and thus increased food purchases at higher prices, the distress sales of animals at lower prices as supply is high and demand is low, increases in household expenditures on medicines as disease transfer amongst livestock rises as they congregate around diminishing water points, and increased conflict as pastoralists and farmers compete over reduced natural resources. FFA in pastoral areas needs to consider (i) the target group to work on programmes (linked to movement of people with their animals), and (ii) the timing of FFA (e.g. implementation prior to the movement), and (iii) the types of work, such as water access and harvesting. In urban contexts livelihoods are primarily income generation and employment based. Depending on the location of the urban settlement (e.g. if it is in a drought prone rural area) there could be direct impacts such as reduction in water availability, or the need to purchase water. Cereal and food prices are likely to increase, and greater strain will be placed on household expenditures to purchase food. FFA activities in urban setting could be geared towards skills training, or if appropriate on urban/per-urban kitchen gardens and small-scale agricultural and water harvesting projects.

TROPICAL CYCLONES AND FLOODS (RAPID ONSET SHOCKS)

Tropical Cyclones are classified into three main groups based on intensity: (i) tropical depressions, (ii) tropical storms, and (iii) a group of more intense storms whose name depends on the region (e.g. cyclones, hurricanes etc.) in which they occur. Tropical storms, cyclones, and hurricanes create massive economic loss in countries where they hit. (i) Tropical depressions are groups of thunderstorms coming together for a long enough period of time with winds of around 60 km per hour. (ii) Tropical storms are storms that have winds of approximately 80 to 120 km per hour. (iii) Hurricanes and cyclones are more severe and more dangerous forms of tropical storms. They have winds of 120-220 km per hour or more, and in addition to strong winds these events discharge massive amounts of rainfall, and can raise high and destructive waves that impact coastal lines and generate floods. These events are called hurricanes when they occur in the Northern Hemisphere, and cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. While the number of storms in the Atlantic has increased since 1995, no clear global trend has as yet been determined. However there is some evidence that the intensity of hurricanes and high powered storms is increasing, and has become a major concern for WFP and partners. These concerns appear to be supported by research evidence. For instance, an eminent scientist from MIT (Kerry Emanuel) reports that: "Records of hurricane activity worldwide show an upswing of both the maximum wind speed in and the duration of hurricanes. The energy released by the average hurricane (again considering all hurricanes worldwide) seems to have increased by around 70% in the past 30 years or so, corresponding to about a 15% increase in the maximum wind speed and a 60% increase in storm lifetime." Impacts from such events can range from localized to widespread. The latter are hard to manage, and can result in large scale floods and the destruction of urban, pastoral, and rural settlements. Livelihoods can also directly be affected, with agriculture and livestock assets being lost, and mobility being hampered thereby impacting employment.

In regards to these shock typologies, countries can be classified as: Geographically at risk Topographically at risk; and Soil risk countries

GEOGRAPHICALLY AT RISK COUNTRIES

If countries or areas within these countries also have topographic and soil conditions prone to generate floods, the likelihood and occurrence of disasters is high. For example: steep and barren slopes upstream with extended valley floors and plains downstream, or at the bottom of the slopes. Countries such as Haiti, Myanmar and Madagascar are typical examples of such environmental landscapes. In Myanmar, cyclone Nargis (April 2008) caused over 100,000 deaths. Three consecutive hurricanes and one tropical storm in less than three weeks (between August and September 2008) killed approximately 3,000 people in Haiti and destroyed 80,000 homes. Areas at risk to tropical cyclones are divided into basins, shown in this map which indicates the regions in the world where cyclones are most frequent.

TOPOGRAPHICALLY AT RISK COUNTRIES

Countries whose topography combined with deforestation generate floods, and have downstream areas with limited capacity to drain excess water runoff. In these areas, storms of moderate intensity or even a high powered rainfall event may generate massive amounts of runoff and flooding because of vast deforested or poorly vegetated water catchments, which cumulatively feed water into valley beds or plains. The Global Flood Mortality Risk Distribution map (Columbia University) shows that many of the areas prone to floods coincide with parts of the world that are affected by land degradation and/or ongoing deforestation problems.

SOIL RISK COUNTRIES

Some soils and geology are more prone to landslides than others. This is due to specific soil layers sliding over other harder layers or pans when excess water infiltrates through the soil profile. A major sliding of heavier and soaked loads of soil layers occurs over a less permeable and often hard pan. Slope material that becomes saturated with water may develop into a debris flow or mud flow. In other cases, shallow landslides result from slopes with high permeable soils on top of low permeable bottom soils. Landslide prone areas are usually stable when covered by forests but become highly unstable with disturbances such as deforestation and/or construction of houses or roads.

IMPACTS OF STORMS AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA

The location of (i) settlements, (ii) where people live, and (iii) the land from which livelihoods are derived is a critical. Generally, storms and rainfall on degraded landscapes greatly increase the risk of rapid high-speed floods and landslides and place towns at their foothills at risk (e.g. Gonaives in Haiti); settlements in lowlying wetlands are at risk to flooding as water levels rise (e.g. coastal cities through sea tides; villages in the wetlands of South Sudan).Storms (with high winds), floods, and landslides, have relatively similar impacts across the different livelihoods types that is, they can lead to loss of life, the spread of water borne diseases (floods), loss of or damage to shelters and homes, and hamper or cut-off access to food and can restrict employment opportunities. More specifically: In agrarian contexts, agricultural fields, irrigation systems, and other assets can be lost. In pastoral contexts, flooding can swell rivers and cut-off pastoral movements, damage or waterlog pastures, and increase the spread of waterborne animal diseases. In urban contexts localised flooding most frequently occurs in slums due to poor drainage, and culverts, and storm drains can become clogged by debris and/or increased runoff. Impacts of wet season flooding in lowland and coastal cities are often aggravated by human encroachment on wetlands, which are natural flood water storage systems.

Given the rapidity of these shocks, in terms of FFA there are two main aspects to consider: Resilience building and mitigation programming: such as water catchment protection and environmental rehabilitation to reduce the intensity of the shock if it occurs. Early recovery immediately after the shock: such as debris removal, repairing of damaged infrastructure, and restoring access to food (and employment)

ECONOMIC SHOCKS

Economic shocks can mean additional hardship for developing countries, communities, and households through depreciating currencies, sharp reductions in commercial credit availability or much harsher borrowing terms, declining primary commodity exports, lowered remittances, less direct foreign investment, increased unemployment and potentially reduced official development assistance all of which ultimately cripples a households food security and their ability to cope and recover from other shocks. For example, soaring food and fuel prices in 2008 followed by the 2009 global financial crisis had significant repercussions on remittances and access to sufficient food at times of low supply to markets, and for the poorest impacted on their dietary diversity and reduced their intake of nutritious foods. In agrarian contexts, whilst some of the better off farmers might benefit from higher prices of food commodities, many of the most vulnerable rural households who partly depend on other sources of income for their livelihood will be negatively affected. A decreased demand from better off farmers for paid labour and seasonal migration opportunities, reduced level of remittances which previously allowed the purchase of agricultural inputs, and overall reduced access to food due to higher prices and lower income sources may have short and longer term negative implications in terms of food security and depletion of assets. Farming communities are particularly affected where the majority of farmers have small farm plots and depend on other sources of income which could be affected by economic crises. In pastoral contexts this can also relate to livestock market systems e.g. the ban on importing livestock from the Horn of Africa countries to the Gulf States in the late 1990s after an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The impact of this ban (only lifted by Saudi Arabia at the end of 2009) has been devastating for pastoralists who lost a major market outlet and source of income. In urban contexts, price hikes in food and non-food item prices (inflation) can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the household and ability to pay for services (e.g. rents, utilities, etc.). The loss of sources of income (e.g. remittances, employment, etc.) is also major economic shock for poor and vulnerable households.

IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA

Economic shocks tend to relate to either price increases, or ability to generate sufficient income to meet minimum food and non-food needs. For FFA, consideration should be given primarily to: Those activities that increase access to food, which in turn relieves pressure on household food expenditures. Such programmes would include skills training and income generation activities. Projects that would improve household own food production (i.e. availability). Transfer modality (i.e. food, cash, or vouchers) would require careful consideration - for example, knowing the cost benefit of food and/or cash transfers during times when purchasing power is low and food prices high.

CONFLICT

Conflict can generate major displacement of populations, destruction of natural, economical, social and physical assets, violence, and disputes. For all livelihood groups, conflict is likely to lead to increases in food (and other non-food) prices as supply chains become disrupted or the transportation of commodities become more expensive, and access to markets and services become limited. Conflict can also lead to the creation of dependency or reliance of people on others (e.g. relatives, friends), Governments, and external aid. In rural areas, both during and often after conflict considerable damages and destruction occur of existing soil conservation assets, trees, irrigation, water facilities, and settlements. In urban areas infrastructure is likely to destroyed or damaged, including homes and shelters, services (e.g. water, power, health, etc.), and markets. In both instances, protracted conflicts can create major disruption in terms of tenure aspects as when the situation returns to normal, the returnee populations may find that the new authorities have changed tenure aspects and are unable to claim rights over formerly used or owned land. In agrarian contexts, conflicts can result in the destruction and/or damage to food crops, and market infrastructure and systems. Food stocks and storage can be depleted or destroyed. Situations exist where farmers and women in particular do risk going back to cultivating a few plots of land at night or during apparent periods of calm, in areas affected by conflict, putting their safety at risk. Programming food assistance in these circumstances will be complex and would require paying special attention to gender and safety aspects of specific vulnerable households (e.g. verify how many households undertake such high risk activities and identify measures able to mitigate risks). In pastoral contexts conflicts can lead to the depletion of pastures and water sources, aggravating and degrading the natural environment and making the resource base less sustainable which can spark more conflict. During stress (e.g. droughts) conflict erupts over diminishing resources within pastoral communities, other pastoral groups, or with farmers people encroach on farmlands with their livestock. Conflicts also occur between pastoralists and Governments, for example when groups of people cross international borders with their animals in search of pastures and water. In urban contexts, conflicts will generally hamper access to employment and services (i.e. transport, health, water, fuel and electricity etc.), and food prices are likely to increase. This loss or reduction of income due to employment access constraints together with increasing prices for food and non-food essentials will severely impact a households ability to cope with the crisis.

IMPACTS OF CONFLICT AND RELEVANCE FOR FFA

Trust and confidence in investments through FFA need to be rebuilt with communities. The nature of the conflict must be understood determine the appropriateness and type of FFA to be implemented for example, areas with heightened insecurity may limit access and provision of rigorous technical expertise, monitoring, and evaluation, then programmes should not be overly complicated and technical in nature.

EARTHQUAKES

Earthquakes are especially devastating in urban areas particularly in terms of loss of human lives and infrastructure, given the high density of populations and congestion of buildings. For example: Haiti, January 2010: An earthquake of 7.2 on the Richter scale killed over 220,000 people, destroyed around 180,000 homes and left 1.5 million homeless, displaced an estimated 600,000, and overall 3 million people were affected. Around 1.5 million people moved into camps, of which 100,000 were living in camps at risk to floods and landslides from the rainy season.

The impact of earthquakes in rural farming areas and livelihoods can also be very serious, particularly in areas with cold winters, in mountainous landscapes, and areas where access to basic services is problematic or limited. Rural livelihoods and farmlands can be devastated from landslides and damage to market infrastructure, warehouses and roads, by the destruction of houses and the possible interruption of farming activities for the season, an overall loss of income, and because households suddenly incur in major expenses as a result of the shock and losses. For example: Pakistan, October 2005: An earthquake of 7.6 on the Richter scale killed 73,000 people, injured 79,000, left 2.8 million without shelter, assets and livelihoods, and affected approx 3.5 million people. More than 2,700 villages were affected, and food, livestock, and seed supplies were lost. Aftershocks and landslides cut rural roads leaving 745,000 people isolated in the mountains, relying on WFP helicopter airlifts for assistance. Another 250,000 were forced into camps.

Note: earthquakes occurring under the sea can generate devastating tsunamis, such as the one in the Indian Ocean region in December 2004 or the one that hit Japan in March 2011. While recognizing the unpredictability of earthquakes, areas at higher risk can be mapped. WFP may consider specific efforts regarding better preparedness and activation of a number of awareness-creation efforts at different levels, including the pre-positioning of contingency food stocks, shelters, water containers, and tools to enable removal of debris through FFA.

PESTS AND DISEASE OUTBREAKS

Ranging from insects to pathogens of different types, and plant invader species can create major food insecurity problems. For instance, different types of crops viruses, pests and parasites, and alien plants (e.g. Cassava virus, locusts, Striga weed, etc.) may significantly reduce crop yields and take advantage of unusual plant stress (excess water or moisture deficits). Supporting Early Warning systems and helping on the early detection of these problems is one of the major contributions that WFP could make jointly with partners. Programme support may also consider aspects of promoting training of vulnerable communities in Integrated Pest Management using the Farmers Field Schools (together with FAO), or explore other innovative forms of crop protection, avoidance of post harvest losses, multiplication of virus free varieties of cassava cutting, improved storage and safe warehousing.

MULTIPLE SHOCKS

This is when two or more of the shocks or disasters mentioned above occur at the same time or sequentially. Of particular relevance for FFA is the twinning of droughts and floods.

SEQUENCE OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS

The relationship between droughts and floods is largely influenced by lack of vegetation which in turn reflects a situation of ecological degradation. Other intrinsic factors such as slopes and geography contribute to the risk of flooding after droughts or in degraded landscapes. Flooding after a drought is a pattern commonly observed in semi-arid and arid areas, where a year or more of droughts depletes grass and vegetative cover over vast areas, districts or regions. Sloping lands in these denuded catchments can generate massive amounts of water runoff in a short period of time during a high powered rain shower or storm. The violent impact of raindrops on the ground quickly seals the pores of the upper soil layer, so most of the rainfall will not infiltrate the soil and be absorbed, instead becoming water runoff that scours and erodes the land with a destructive force. Examples abound within and between countries. For instance some areas in Northern Kenya are affected by runoff pouring down from the South Eastern Ethiopian highlands. Within Ethiopia and Kenya there are vast areas prone to flooding when rains follow a long drought and the catchments are denuded of grass cover. Areas with soils prone to crusting (soils rich in fine sands) and areas with shallow soils (e.g. with limited infiltration) are typical signs of a legacy of soil erosion and deforestation, and other problems such as overgrazing, compaction of soils, and a lack of erosion control and land management practices.

In other countries, a situation of conflict and the concomitant occurrence of drought plunges populations in entire areas into adopting negative coping strategies such as the stripping of the natural resources base. Water and land become scare and farmers encroach onto steep and /or marginal areas unsuitable for cultivation, and which are more fragile and prone to soil erosion thereby creating the conditions for an accelerated process of more conflict, more degradation, more susceptibility to droughts and higher food insecurity. There are also countries where the occurrence of multiple shocks can be foreseen and where a robust context analysis may contribute creating awareness and improving preparedness.

USEFUL REFERENCES:
Additional information regarding the description of the type of disasters and their effect on food security is included in the WFP Disaster Mitigation Guidelines. For further reference see: [http://home.wfp.org/manuals/pg_disastermitigation/documents/DMguide/DMguideE/DMG_E.pdf]. Recent Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch (ODEP) work on Seasonal and Hazards Calendars provides a summary of the type and frequency of shocks affecting countries where WFP provides food assistance.