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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

13 JAN 17 JAN 2014

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
India may retain gold import restrictions till March 2014 even as there is improvement with respect to current account deficit (CAD). India's gold imports fell significantly after the Union Government raised customs duty on gold in phases to 10% and jewellery import duty to 15%. Apart from this a new regulation which came into effect a few months ago stipulated that 20% of all gold imported had to be exported in value added form. Various measures taken to curb consumption of gold including restrictions on gold loans caused gold imports to fall from a high of 163 tons in May 2013 to 19.3 tons in November. Economic Affairs Secretary pointed out that CAD has to remain low and hence the present regulation has to be in force till the end of this fiscal year 2013-2014 ending March 31. According to Reserve Bank of India, India's CAD is expected to fall to $56 bn from alltime high of $88.2 bn recorded last year. The World Gold Council's (WGC) third quarter report of 2013 showed a 32% decline in consumer demand at 148 tons compared to 310 tons in the second quarter of this year. Meanwhile, gold jewellery retailers and trade have reported lack of availability of gold resulting in increased smuggling through airports. India crude oil futures edged lower on Wednesday pressured by a slight appreciation of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar amid slight up-tick in global crude oil prices. Crude oil futures for January delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen trading with a loss of 0.31% at Rs.5838 per barrel as of 15.57 IST on Wednesday. Investors are expected to closely analyze the minutes of US Federal Reserve's December policy meeting which is expected to be released on Wednesday while Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly US crude oil stock-piles data at 21.00 IST today. Crude oil output at Libya's El-Sharara oilfield increased to 277,000 barrels per day (bpd), yesterday. The field is expected to return to its full capacity of 340,000 bpd by Wed, Reuters reported quoting official at the state-run National Oil Corp. In November 2013 compared with October 2013, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 1.4% in the Euro area (EA17) and by 1.2% in the EU28 , according to estimates on Wednesday by Euro stat, the statistical office of the European Union released. In October retail trade decreased by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. In November 2013 compared with November 2012 the retail sales index increased by 1.6% in the Euro area and by 2.0% in the EU28. After witnessing a volatile market in 2013, India copper futures may rise in the near term. Copper witnessed stiff resistance on the higher side at Rs 450 per kg, which led a decline in prices for four consecutive months that accounted for a loss of more than 17% during the period. Prices bottomed to Rs 366 per kg in the month of May. International Copper Study Group(ICSG) expects copper surplus to reach a 13-yar high of 272,000 mt as economic growth will be weaker than forecast. China's consumption of refined copper is expected to grow more quickly in 2014, though not fat enough to boost imports significantly as production increases more quickly. China's consumption of refined copper is forecast to grwo 6.5% to 8.7 mn tons in 2014, as Beijing continues to invest heavily in the power sector. Among the factors that caused volatility in prices in 2013 in MCX Copper include rupee depreciation, rebound in China growth while copper prices came down from the year end act from the U.S Fed to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases.

India may not ease Gold import restrictions soon.

MCX Crude Oil remains weak ahead of EIA data.

India Copper futures: After a volatile 2013, prices may rise near term.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Jan 14 12:30am 6:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 11:15pm 11:50pm Jan 15 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 9:00pm Jan 16 12:30am 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:30pm 8:30pm 8:30pm 9:00pm 9:40pm Jan 17 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:45pm 7:45pm 8:25pm 8:25pm 8:30pm

DESCRIPTION
Federal Budget Balance NFIB Small Business Index Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m FOMC Member Plosser Speaks FOMC Member Fisher Speaks PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index Crude Oil Inventories Beige Book Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m TIC Long-Term Purchases Philly Fed Manufacturing Index NAHB Housing Market Index Natural Gas Storage Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Building Permits Housing Starts Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations JOLTS Job Openings

FORECAST
44.3B 93.2 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

PREVIOUS
-135.2B 92.5 0.4% 0.7% -0.6% 0.7%

0.5% 0.1% 3.2

-0.1% 0.1% 1.0 -2.7M

0.1% 327K 0.3% 42.3B 8.8 58

0.2% 330K 0.0% 35.4B 7.0 58 -157B

1.01M 0.99M 79.2% 0.4% 83.4

1.01M 1.09M 79.0% 1.1% 82.5 3.0%

3.97M

3.93M

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed sideways movement after taking resistance from upper band of channel pattern and closed around it with consolidation phase. Now if it able to maintain above 29300 and if also traded above the upper band of channel pattern then 29600 will act as important resistance. On other hand if it sustain below 29000 then 28650 will act as major support level.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 29350 for the targets of 2960030000 with stop loss of 28600.

S1
28690

S2
28080

S3
27400

R1
29650

R2
30110

R3
30680

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed sideways movement, and took bounce back from lower band of falling wedge pattern & face resistance of its important level i.e. 45850. Now, if bullish trend continues and sustain above 45900 then it may find next resistance around 46600. On lower side 43500 will act as support for it below which it may drag towards important support of 42500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 46000 for targets of 46600-47200, with stop loss of 44500.

PIVOT TABLE S1
44500

S2
43500

S3
42400

R1
45850

R2
46700

R3
47600

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on its daily chart after the breakout of upward channel pattern last week continued bearishness and supassed the key support of 5750. Now if it is able to sustain below 5630 then brearishness may continue towards the support level of 5490. On other hand if it gives closing above 5885 then only some strength may seen on higher side.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the target of 5500, with stop loss of 6000.

PIVOT TABLE S1
5570

S2
5375

S3
5165

R1
5875

R2
6060

R3
6235

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish movement and able to break upward channel pattern on lower side and took support of upper band of downward channel pattern. Now, if it is able to sustain below 453 then bearishness drag it towards the support level of 445. On other hand if it maintains above the resistance of 465 then bullishness will expected.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 453, with stop loss of 465 for the target of 445.

S1
451.80

S2
445.85

S3
441

R1
462.20

R2
469

R3
474.50

DISCLAIMER

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