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JICA STUDY TEAM For The Project on Integrated Urban Development Master Plan for the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya
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The Project on Integrated Urban Development Plan for The City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya
1. Progress of the Study 2. Future Transport Network Plan 1) Alternative Plans 2) Road Network Plan 3) Public Transport Network Plan 3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 1) General Methodology 2) Result of Demand Forecast 4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 5. Staging Plan 1) Basic Strategy 2) Road Development Plan 3) Public Transport Development Plan 4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan 6. Conclusion and Recommendation
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3 2. Future Transport Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
Do-nothing Case: Future (2030) traffic demand to present network Case 0:On-going Project Future traffic demand on existing network and on-going projects*
*Refer to next page.
Case 1: Road Development Oriented Case 2006 Road Networked reinforced by future traffic demand and land use plan Case 2: Utilization of Commuter Rail Case Future road network with Commuter Railway network Case 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case Case 2+selective/modified MRTS network where demand concentrates
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*On-going Projects The following projects are included in the on-going projects. Expanding and upgrading of the Northern Corridor Road including the Elevated highway over the Uhuru Highway Construction of Southern Bypass Road Construction of Missing Link Roads financed by EU Dualling of Outer Ring Road Construction of Western Ring Roads Widening of Ngong Road from Kenyatta Ave. intersection to Dagoretti Widening of Juja Road Upgrading of Langata Road of KWS Gate-Bomas Junction Section
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2. Future Transport Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
Basic network shall be 2006 M/P (NUTRANS) and reinforced in the following aspects: Strengthen circumferential/radial (C/R) network system. Strengthen radial road network connecting surrounding area of Nairobi. (Necessary capacity will be estimated by demand forecast.) Development of new road required by the land use plan. Strengthen east-west axis roads Traffic assignment of future traffic demand to existing road(Do-nothing Case) will be analyzed and necessary capacity will be adopted.
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7 2. Future Transport Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
c)ResultofTrafficAssignmentofDonothingCase 2030trafficdemandtopresentnetwork
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Situation Free flow. Traffic -1.0 congestion does not appear. Traffic congestion 10may appear at a 1.25 peak hour. Traffic congestion 1.25 appears at a peak 1.50 hour. Traffic congestion 1.50may appear all day.
VCR
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b)RoadNetworkProposedbyNUTRANS
In addition to the road network proposed by NUTRANS, the following measures are required in future road network. Widening of Langata Rd to 6-lanes. Widening of Jogoo Rd to 6-lanes. Widening of Eastern Bypass to 4-lanes. Introduction of MRTS to over capacity roads. Especially on-going project roads.
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Mombasa Rd Waiyaki Way shows VCR over 1.50. Thika Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Outer Ring Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Juja Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Jogoo Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Langata Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Ngong Rd. shows partially VCR over 1.50. Eastern Bypass shows VCR over 1.50.
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Remark: Route of the circumferential road C2 was altered considering its feasibility.
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11 2. Future Transport Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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Legend Bus Rapid Transit Light Rail Transit Metro Rail Commuter Rail Transit Hub Transit Terminal Transit Interchange
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13 2. Future Transport Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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LRT circular route is proposed in order to decrease the number of vehicles going into CBD and make the CBD NMT area. 14
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Trip Production Trip Generated and Attracted Trip Distribution Modal Split Trip Assignment Future Traffic Volume
The purpose-oriented trip produced in the overall area is forecast. The trip generated and attracted volume by zone is forecast from the trip production. OD table which set trip generated and attracted volume to an Origin/Destination is calculated. The traffic among zones is split by transportation mode. OD table by modal split is assigned to the transportation network
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Viaduct-1 Viaduct-2
Development of new bus/matatu terminal in the railway city is proposed to alleviate the congestion at the present terminal. Inter-city bus terminals are proposed at the outskirt of urban area. Those terminals also assist the creation of sub-centers.
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g)Terminal Plan
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18,421 3,833,869 18,403 3,695,692 214,549 4,062,046
60%
N e w T r a n s p o r t -
Road Development 1 2030 Oriented Utilization of 2030 2 Commuter Rail Introduction of 3 2030 Selective MRTS
45,692 190,456
80% 100% 0.2%
13.5%
40.7%
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21.6%
38.8%
21.9%
22.1%
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21.5%
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PRIVATE
17.6% BUS
RAIL
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RAIL 14,006 18,587
0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.1%
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TOTAL
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VCR: Volume Capacity Ratio Volume includes all type of vehicles
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3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result
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VCR: Volume Capacity Ratio Volume includes all type of vehicles
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3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result
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VCR: Volume Capacity Ratio Volume includes all type of vehicles
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3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result
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3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result
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4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
ii)2Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase PublicTransportAssignment
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Scaled up
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ii)Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase PublicTransportAssignment
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431,690 41.2 1,692,480 1,173,180 23.1 32.1 929,850 880,110 725,460 39.2 39.9 42.1 273,910 1,254,120 805,560 621,140 582,600 433,330 40.0 20.2 31.7 40.0 40.8 44.9
Alternative Existing Case Do Nothing Case 0 1 On-going Project Case Road Development Oriented Case
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1) MajorIndicesbyVehicleAssignment
a)ResultinStudyArea
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1) MajorIndicesbyVehicleAssignment
Alternative Existing Case Do Nothing Case Project 0 On-going Case Development 1 Road Oriented Case of 2 Utilization Commuter Rail Case of 3 Introduction Selective MRTS Case
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
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Average VehicleVehicleAverage VCR km Total hours Total Speed (Volume PCU-km PCU-Hour (km/h) Capacity (000) Ratio) 10,960 25,320 25,520 24,830 23,790 19,450 0.69 1.60 1.32 1.05 1.00 0.82
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b)ResultinNairobiCity
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0.54 1.19 1.02 0.85 0.81 0.71
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0.8 - 1.0
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178.7 155.7 163.8 193.3 151.7 166.1 99.3 1,518.7 133.3 1,518.7
100% 60% 80% 8.0% 7.4% 5.8% 2.0% 27.9% 10.5% 9.0% 9.1% 8.1% 12.7% 10.3% 10.0% 18.3% 10.8% 8.8% 11.8% 12.7% 10.9% 6.5% 9.0% 7.3% 3.2% 1.5 14.0% 1.21.5 1.01.2
Congestion Existing in Do Nothing Alternative 0 Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Ratio 2013 in 2030 in 2030 in 2030 in 2030 in 2030 -0.8 1,114.7 563.5 770.2 887.2 908.2 1,010.4 1.0 - 1.2 1.2 - 1.5 TOTAL 1.5 -
1,451.4
Existing 2013 DoNothingCase 2030 Alternative0 2030 Alternative1 2030 Alternative2 2030 Alternative3 2030
1,451.4
20%
405.0
1,485.8
40% 76.8%
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144.5 117.1 131.4 807.9
100%
a)ResultinStudyArea
0%
13.8%
0.8
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0.81.0
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b)ResultinNairobiCity
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Congestion Existing in Do Nothing Alternative 0 Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Ratio 2013 in 2030 in 2030 in 2030 in 2030 in 2030 -0.8 510.2 171.1 243.3 329.6 343.5 450.6 81.0 69.5 62.3 751.2
Existing 2013 DoNothingCase 2030 Alternative0 2030 Alternative1 2030 Alternative2 2030 Alternative3 2030 0.8 22.8% 31.2% 40.8% 42.5% 55.8% 0.81.0 1.01.2 9.2%
81.8 87.2
127.6 109.9
139.1 778.9
40% 67.9% 10.7% 10.5% 11.4% 11.2% 15.8% 17.9% 17.9% 13.6% 60%
143.3 807.9
10.8%
28.1
0%
751.2
20%
344.5
227.4
97.6
80% 9.3%
71.4
8.3% 3.7%
45.9% 29.2% 17.7% 16.3% 13.3% 12.1% 8.8% 10.4% 1.8% 1.5
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212.8 136.4 110.8 1,518.7 48.3
Unit : km
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Unit : km
807.9
14.5
30
- Development of roads cannot solve the traffic congestion as shown in p.21. Reinforcement of mass transit and introduction of new transit system are requisite. - By reinforcement of commuter rail and introduction of BRT to 6 corridors, traffic congestion is eased especially in the eastern area of city centre.
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- As the result, Alternative 3 is recommended solution against the future increasing traffic demand.
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- Comparing the indices of Alternative 0 to 3, vehicle-km, vehicle-hours and average VCR decrease due to the development of Mass Transit.
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3) Evaluation of Alternatives
5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
1) Basic Strategy
Target of road and urban transport 1) Network in coordination with land use 2) Network for world class mobility 1st Phase Present to 2018 Study/technical Network in assistance for coordination development of with Land infrastructure in Use Railway City Improvement of network to solve existing issues. Institutional arrangement for strengthening public transport 2nd Phase 2019 to 2023 Development of infrastructure in Railway City 3rd Phase 2024 to 2030 Network development to connect subcentres
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Introduction of MRTS Expand to pilot corridors. Development of road introduction of MRTS to plural corridors to introduce corridors MRTS Establishment of Strengthening of C/R network circumferential roads system to form the C/R 32 network
5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
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4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
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4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
3) Public Transport Development Plan Medium Term (-2023) Public Transport Network
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5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
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Unit : Trips RAIL 14,006 14,416 181,736 TOTAL 6,775,222 7,832,087 8,858,349 190,456 10,017,678
100% 0.2% 0.2% 2.1% 1.9% 0.5%
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2013 3,090,103
916,624 2,754,489
2018 3,246,051 1,289,796 3,281,824 2023 3,606,326 1,506,186 3,564,101 2030 3,951,711 1,767,773 4,062,046
20% 45.6%
40% 13.5%
60%
41.4%
16.5%
41.9%
40.7%
17.0%
40.2%
40.5% NewTransport
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5. Staging Plan
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VCR: Volume Capacity Ratio Volume includes all type of vehicles
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i) Existing in 2013
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5. Staging Plan
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VCR: Volume Capacity Ratio Volume includes all type of vehicles
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5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
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5. Staging Plan
Existing Case 3 3 3
2013
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431,690 41.2 618,900 39.1 680,230 39.7 725,460 42.1 VehicleAverage hours Total Speed PCU-Hour (km/h) 273,910 424,160 444,960 433,330 40.0 38.2 40.6 44.9
Alternative
Year
Introduction of 2018 Selective MRTS Case Introduction of Selective MRTS Case 2023 Introduction of 2030 Selective MRTS Case
24,170
27,000
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30,540
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5. Staging Plan
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Year 2013
Existing Case 3 3 3
Introduction of Selective MRTS Case 2018 Introduction of Selective MRTS Case 2023 Introduction of Selective MRTS Case 2030
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Average VCR (Volume Capacity Ratio) 0.54 0.69 0.72 0.71
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5. Staging Plan
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147.2 127.9 148.7 122.3 129.0 111.7 113.9 107.1
100%
Existing in Alternative 3 Alternative 3- Alternative 3- Alternative 3 2013 in 2018 1 in 2023 2 in 2023 in 2030 1,114.7 989.4 980.4 1,004.1 1,010.4 212.8 136.4 110.8 48.3 1,518.7
Unit : km
1,496.2
60%
1,496.2
80%
66.8%
67.1%
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9.9%
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66.5%
14.0% 1.21.5
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100%
0.8
0.81.0
1.01.2
5. Staging Plan
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Existing in Alternative 3 Alternative 3- Alternative 3- Alternative 3 2013 in 2018 1 in 2023 2 in 2023 in 2030 510.2 389.8 403.4 419.0 450.6 81.0 69.5 62.3 28.1 751.2
0% Existing 2013 20%
77.7
95.9
100.9
40%
67.9%
10.8%
9.3%
8.3% 3.7%
50.4%
15.8%
10.0%
13.0%
10.7%
53.1%
14.8%
12.2%
11.8%
8.1%
55.8%
18.7%
13.3%
10.4% 1.8%
0.8
0.81.0
1.01.2
1.21.5
1.5
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49 151.4 107.6 83.9 14.5 807.9
Unit : km
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2. Entry of heavy vehicles inside the area surrounded by eastern, northern and southern bypass shall be restricted after the completion of southern bypass.
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General
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2. Obtaining general consensus for the improvement of transport network among the passengers and operators of bus/matatu is also requested. Short Term Measures Result of traffic demand forecast shows the traffic congestion worsen in the short term and medium term . To cope with the issue, various measures should be undertaken. 1. System signal control Integrated Urban Surveillance System (IUSS) is now introduced to CBD area. But traffic congestion occurs in wider area, especially along the radial trunk road in the city, system signal control in the whole city area is expected.
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1. In order to materialize the MRTS plan, not only the physical infrastructure but also institutional framework, especially establishment of operator, is basically requested.
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5. Relocation of Bus terminals Along with the land use plan for development of sub-centers in the outskirts area, disposition of bus terminals is expected. These terminals will function as the transfer terminal from matatu to large bus.
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4. Streamline the fleet Carrier In the information age, volume of commodity has become smaller but frequency has become high. Introduction of cooperating distribution system is highly required to decrease the number of vehicle trips in the business area.
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3. Staggered working hours In the morning peak, more than 20% of private car arrival is from 7:00 to 8:00. But the before and after the peak hour, traffic volume decreases to only 5%. Staggered working hours can use the transport facilities more efficiently.
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2. Introduction of bus-exclusive lane. Even before introduction of BRT, bus exclusive lane is effective to enhance the use of public transport.
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