HOW TO

AVOID BEING AVALANChED

Talking yourself into trouble

Glenmore Lodges Alan Halewood looks at heuristic traps, simple decisionmaking mistakes that can have dire consequences in winter conditions
They had read the Scottish Avalanche

Information Forecast (SAIS). They knew there was a hazard and which slopes it was on. They had been on a training course and they had lots of winter mountaineering experience. They still managed to get avalanched and felt it just came out of nowhere. Its a common story that is repeated each year, sometimes with tragic consequences. Why is it that despite knowledge, experience and an excellent daily forecast, people are still getting avalanched on a regular basis? One answer may lie in how people naturally make decisions. We are all capable of making rational choices in a methodical way, but research shows that often we dont. It appears that our natural reaction is to unconsciously rely on simple rules of thumb, or heuristics, to tackle complex decisionmaking processes. When it comes to avalanches, applying these rules of thumb to inappropriate situations turns them into heuristic traps. Falling victim to these traps may explain why most UK avalanche victims trigger their own avalanche. Research has identified a number of these heuristic traps and in this article we look at the common ones in a bid to increase our awareness of how easy it is to talk ourselves into trouble.

because these are frequently visited areas where human presence allows more avalanches to be observed. The fact that we are familiar and comfortable with a slope, coire or gully we have often visited before doesnt mean that it will be safe every time wevisit it. Scottish avalanche conditions are notoriously fickle, owing in part to our rapid changes in wind speeds and temperature. The slope that was safe in the morning may be hazardous by afternoon, let alone in a different season. Just because it was safe the last 99 times you were here, it doesnt mean things are the same today. Evaluate the conditions you are faced with, not those that you have experienced in the past in the same place.

are socialised to seek such acceptance from our peers from an early age. Figures have shown that while women are overall less likely to be avalanched, mixed-sex groups have a higher incidence than single-sex parties. The belief is that, especially during young adulthood, there is a tendency for men to engage in more risky behaviour in front of female peers. The principle can also apply as a wider peer group acceptance though. We all like to look good in front of our mates! Dont be afraid to take the soft option. You are as likely to gain respect for that as for pushing the bounds of safety.

The Expert Halo

Consistency/Commitment

Familiarity

It doesnt normally avalanche here Ive been here lots of times and its never avalanched before This is a case when experience can actually count against you. When we are familiar with a location, its easy to relax a little and switch on the mental autopilot. New venues are more likely to make us pay attention and work from scratch. The SAIS website (sais.gov. uk) has a map which shows past avalanche activity (you can add to this information by reporting any activity you see) and clusters in certain areas are obvious. However, this is not necessarily only because these are avalanche-prone areas; it may also be 76
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Lets stick with the plan I just want to get back to the pubnow We seem to have a natural desire to present a consistent picture of our decision-making process to others. We dislike appearing indecisive and changing our minds, and this leads to a tendency to stick with Plan A. Other than how we appear to others, carrying on regardless is often the easiest option, certainly as opposed to sifting all the complex factors that go into determining whether a route is avalanche prone/likely to become so. Interestingly, larger groups seem to be more susceptible to this trap. Stay flexible, keep your options open, plan ahead and dont be afraid tochange your mind.

If he thinks its ok well be alright Shes done the course so she must be right In a difficult situation it can be easy to defer to someone you perceive as an expert, a leader or just someone with more experience than you. But how rich is their expertise and what quality is their experience? Even the best qualified leader may value a second opinion. In poor visibility Ive walked past a gully with evidence of avalanche activity in it that I was only aware of when one of my group spotted it. I almost missed this important clue to conditions. Dont be afraid to add your observations and ask questions rather than completely deferring decisions that affect you. Your opinion counts and may make a crucial difference.

Social Proof

Acceptance

Shes nice! (I dont want them to think Im awimp) Admit it guys, especially when we are a little younger (?) we like to look good in front of members of the opposite sex. The acceptance heuristic is about this desire to be noticed or accepted by those we respect. We are all subject to this, and

Those other guys are here and they seem to think its ok Baa Social proof refers to our desire to conform to what we perceive as normal behaviour in any given situation where others are present. It is most pronounced in complex situations where we are uncertain of the best thing to do. People tend to make assumptions (often false) that others have more information than we do, and this can

November 2013

lead to hasty decision-making. The presence of others or their footprints doesnt say anything about the current stability of a slope. Even if we watch another team safely negotiate terrain, they may have been lucky, or their passage may even have weakened the slope. Dont be a sheep! Make your own decisions, regardless of how you feel it may make you look. Never just assume that even a well-tracked slope is safe. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and research into the social proof trap has shown that those with some formal avalanche training have been found to take more risks when applying their knowledge in front of others, while those with little or no knowledge may take fewer risks with those skills when others are around.

Scarcity

Weve come all the way from Devon and we only have this weekend The hills look amazing and the weather is due to be grim tomorrow As humans we tend to value things more if they are scarce e.g. oil, gold or blue sky winter days! I live in Scotland and have the luxury of often being able to choose the right place and right time to go out. However, I have every sympathy with those who have a one-week annual winter mountain holiday booked long in advance, especially if it coincides with poor/hazardous conditions. That rain and sudden thaw should

be heeded even if it means missing a rare day out, and even a blue sky day may be extremely hazardous if it follows heavy snowfall and strong winds. The mountain will be there for a long time, the trick is making sure you are too. Dont be afraid to take a caf/ shopping/biking/low level day. If you are interested in learning more about how heuristics apply to people getting avalanched, Ive listed some academic papers and websites. These are particularly interesting if you are want to know which heuristics are more common in large or small groups and experienced or less experienced parties. If you want to know more about heuristics then Thinking, Fast and Slow by Nobel winner Daniel Kahneman is a fascinating but accessible read. Even if you arent interested in the science, you would do well to listen to Kahneman when he reminds us

that The mental work that produces impressions, intuitions and many decisions goes on in the silence of the mind. We dont always know how we reached a conclusion, and worse, that conclusion isnt always accurate! Hopefully, an awareness of some ofour biases will help us avoid these traps and in the second of these articles Ill look at some specific strategies you can use to avoid becoming a victim ofthem.

IN THE NEXTISSUE

Part two of avoiding avalanches

Kahneman, D., 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. (Kindle version) Penguin. Available through Amazon (amazon.co.uk) Larson, S., 2006. Human Factors in AvalancheIncidents [online] Available at: summitpost.org/ human-factors-in-avalanche-incidents/188636 McCammon, I., 2004. Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications [pdf] Available at: sunrockice.com/docs/Heuristic%20traps%20IM%20 2004.pdf

Further reading

HOW TO

STAY SAFE IN WINTER

Talking yourself out of trouble

In the second part of our series on avalanche avoidance, Glenmore Lodges Alan Halewood talks about how to avoid common heuristic traps
This article sets out to help you answer the challenge of
Diagram 1: The Avalanche Triangle

TE

the heuristic traps caused by our subconscious reliance on simple rules of thumb that were defined in the last issue. Lets start by looking at how we can plan our approach to avalanche avoidance. When thinking about winter days out and avalanche avoidance you should remember that avalanches are BAD: BEFORE you go out assess the conditions and plan carefully. This may include accessing guidebooks, maps, weather information, personal knowledge if you have been out recently, use of blogs and conditions sites and, of course, the SAIS forecast (sais.gov.uk). APPROACHING your route for the day (in the car and on foot), compare what you are seeing and experiencing to what you expected to see. Is it the same or was your plan based on different conditions from those you are actually observing? DURING your day monitor the conditions. Are things staying the same, changing as expected or altering sooner or later than you had based your plans on? At each of these stages you can use a simple but effective model like the avalanche triangle given here (Diagram 1) to help you consider the factors to take into account to avoid being avalanched. (Note: there are many other decision making tools that can be used to evaluate the avalanche hazard but the triangle is one that can be useful to encourage us to learn more about the factors involved).

WE

AIN

H AT

RR

ER

HUMAN FACTORS
SNOWPACK

There are four components to the triangle:

Terrain

 Avalanches are most likely to occur on 30-45 degree slopes. What angle are we going onto?  What aspect is our slope?  Has it been or is it lee to winds?  Are there any terrain traps holding snow?  What sort of terrain is above us as well as where we are?  Convex slopes are sites of tension in the snowpack and are often where avalanches release. Where are we in relation to convexities in slopes?

Weather

 What is the wind strength and direction?  Has there been or is there currently heavy precipitation?  What is the temperature and is it going up or down?

Snowpack

(This often feels like the difficult one to learn to understand but the SAIS forecast is an excellent summary for us of what is happening to the snowpack).  What type of snow is present?  Is the snowpack unstable or stable?  Will the forecast weather make it more or less stable?  Be aware of the potential limitations of relying on information from isolated snowpack tests. Pits dug only a short way apart may give different results. Understanding stability and propagation tests is a skilled activity.

Human Factors

We are often the weakest link. In the previous article I listed six common heuristic traps: Familiarity When does it happen? When faced with a situation that seems familiar. What is the trap? Assuming that we will be safe this time because we have been in the past. 74
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December 2013

Consistency/commitment When does it happen? When faced with an opportunity to show behaviour consistent with our previous words oractions. What is the trap? A fear of appearing indecisive, unsureorinconsistent. Acceptance When does it happen? When decisions are made by thosewe wish to be accepted by. What is the trap? Allowing our desire for acceptance tooverride our own decision making process.  he expert halo T When does it happen? When there is a credible expert opinion present. What is the trap? Deferring automatically to the expert. Social proofing When does it happen? When you have evidence of the actions of others similar to us. What is the trap? Belief that those similar to you have taken the best course of action and following intheirfootsteps. Scarcity When does it happen? When a resource (a good winter day out) is scarce. What is the trap? Allowing the desire to get your day out to override other factors in the decision making process. If you would like to practise using the avalanche triangle as a planning tool visit the Glenmore Lodge website and take the avalanche quiz at: glenmorelodge.org.uk/ avalanche.asp

in the neXtissue

Part three of avoiding avalanches

AVaLaNCHE SaFETY this page | AVaLaNCHE GEaR 70 WINTER CaMPING TIPS 71 | WINTER HYDRaTION 72 NIGHT SKY PHOTOGRaPHY & SKYWaTCH 73

HILLSKILLs
HOW TO AVOID AVALANCHES

Essential how-to advice

Red flags and hazard forecasts

In the third part of our in-depth winter safety series, Alan Halewood looks at the red flags that warn of avalanche danger, and explains how to use the crucially important SAIS forecast
As I explained in parts one and

two ofthis series, there are four main factors you should take into account to avoid being avalanched: terrain, weather, snow pack and human factors theheuristic traps or unconscious shortcuts that may leadtobad decision-making. So what practical steps can we take to avoid falling victim tothosehumanfactors? KNOWLEDGE IS POWER: An awareness of what the traps are will not automatically stop you getting caught out by them but it may give you a checklist to hold your decision making process up against. [Remind yourself of the list by checking the November issue of TGO or go onlineto tgomagazine.co.uk.]

SHARE THE kNOWLEDGE: Many of the traps are a result of our own individual weaknesses. Ensure others in your party have the same information you do at the same time you get it. Share planning considerations. Share observations throughout your day. Share the decision-making. BEWARE OF FALSE ASSUMPTIONS: They are more dangerous than ignorance! Take it back to what you are certain of and look out for major danger signs that arent judgement-based. We can call these signs red flags and their presence should form key signs that we should never ignore as part of our decisionmaking. If these flags are present thereare unstable conditions.

READ-UP ONLINE
In part one, Alan introduced the concept of heuristic traps (the mental shortcuts that may cause you to make a fatal mistake) and gave good examples of how hillwalkers and mountaineers fall intoeach of the six common ones. Then, in part two, he looked at what you should do before, approaching and during your day in the hills to analyse conditions, and showed how the Avalanche Triangle can help you to remember the four components you need to consider: Terrain, Weather, Snowpack and Human Factors (heuristic traps). All three parts are available now at tgomagazine.co.uk online and as adownloadable PDF.

Red Flags mean unstable snow

Telltale signs of dangerous conditionsare: Recent avalanche activity: if you observe avalanche activity the snowpack is unstable. Strong winds: windslab avalanches are the major hazard in British winter conditions. Experiencing strong winds depositing snow on lee slopes or evidence and knowledge of recent strong winds (cornicing, raised footprints, pillows of snow, weather and SAIS forecasts) should not be ignored and these areas should beavoided.

Heavy precipitation; especially (but not only) within the last 24 hours. Heavy snowfall, particularly if associated with high winds, will cause instability. Equally, heavy rain onto an existing snowpack can lead to an increased chance of wet snow slides. Whoomphing sounds, cracking or blocking: cracks propagating or shooting away beneath your feet or from footsteps are signs of serious instability. Distinctive whoomphs as a weak layer collapses are also sure signs of an increased hazard. Avoid slopes where avalanches are more likely to occur. Sudden rapid temperature rise: sudden thaw leads to denser, wetter snow. Cornice collapse can be a major hazard in itself and because of further avalanche activity it can release. Key indicators may be point release avalanches sourced at rocks or sun wheels. Strong direct sunlight (yes, we do get it in the UK!) can cause these instabilities even when the ambient air temperature isstillfreezing. To this I could add a sixth possible Red Flag. If the Avalanche Forecast says it is hazardous dont do it!

Read the forecast

North of the border, we have an amazing resource in the Scottish Avalanche Information Service forecast (available at sais.gov.uk).

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HILLSKILLs
Inthe last few years the format of the forecast has changed to try to make it easier for us to understand the information on it. But its also changed to try to stop us falling into the familiarity trap. If you head out in Scottish winter conditions a lot you will be very aware that an avalanche hazard of Considerable is relatively common. The hazard used to be represented numerically from 1 to 5 and a Considerable hazard was Category 3. People became so familiar with a Cat 3 Forecast that venturing out into it became the norm. Here is what a Considerable Hazard actually means: Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches arelikely. So spontaneous natural avalanches with no human trigger are possible and avalanches that are set off by people are likely to occur. (SeeDiagram 1). Likely is quite a strong word. If I were to suggest that it was likely you would be assaulted if you spoke to anyone in the town centre on a Friday night, would you reconsider your plans to go out? If I told you that just by being there, there would be a possibility of random assault, would that make you think twice? Yet we were so used to Cat 3 that it was almost the norm and we were familiar with going out to face that hazard. If you hover your cursor over the Category on the SAIS forecasts you will get a fuller description of the category which may give you further pause for thought (SeeDiagram2). The use of the coloured wheel gives us a much more visual representation. Yes we may get used to the orange Considerable Hazard too, but its definition is right there next to the chart and we can see what altitude and aspect to expect it on. This is crucial information. If you ignore/attempt to second-guess it, dont be surprised if you become the victim ofan avalanche. Over these three articles Ive tried to introduce the concept of heuristic traps. These are the potential errors caused by our subconscious minds reliance on shortcuts and rules of thumb to make sense of complex situations. Hopefully by understanding these traps we are less likely to become victim to them. The chances of a safe day out may also be increased by using a model like the avalanche triangle for collating information, watching out for red flags and really reading the avalanche forecast! If you want to explore the topic of UK avalanches further, consider a course at Glenmore Lodge, or with a full member of the Association of Mountaineering Instructors or British Mountain Guides. Stay safe this winter. Make good decisions and enjoy those blue-sky, stable snowy days!
Alan Halewood is an Associate Instructor at Glenmore Lodge.

DIagraM 1: AVALANCHE HAZARD levelS and PrOBaBilitY

N 400 NW 850 NE HaZaRD LEVEL VERY HIGH HIGH CONSIDERaBLE MODERaTE W 1300 E LOW AVaLaNCHE PROBaBILITY Widespread Natural and Human triggered avalanches will occur. Natural and Human triggered avalanches will occur. Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches are likely. Natural avalanches unlikely. Human triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches not likely.

Localized Avalanche Hazard

SW S

SE

DIagraM 2: AVALANCHE HAZARD AND TRAVEL ADVICE

HaZaRD LEVEL AVaLaNCHE HaZaRD Widespread natural avalanches will occur, often continually. Frequent, medium to large sized avalanches, with long run outs, will occur on most aspects; the snowpack is weakly bonded in these locations. Rareextreme conditions. Natural avalanches will occur, sometimes frequently. Medium to large sized avalanches, with long run outs, will occur in the locations indicated in the reports; the snowpack is weakly bonded in these locations. Human triggered avalanches will occur. Medium to large sized natural avalanches possible. In locations indicated in the reports, human triggered avalanches are likely; The snowpack is poor to weakly bonded in these locations. Large natural avalanches unlikely. Avalanches in steep locations are possible. Human triggered avalanches possible. The snowpack is only moderately well bonded on some steep slopes, or moderate to poorly bonded, in isolated steep locations as indicated in the reports. Elsewhere generally well bonded. Natural avalanches unlikely but in some conditions small avalanches in steep locations are possible. Human triggered avalanches not likely. Generally the snowpack is well bonded and stable. TRaVEL ADVICE Widespread natural avalanches will occur. Human triggered avalanches will occur with single person loading on most slopes. Experience in avalanche hazard evaluation essential. Good visibility and very good route finding in mountain terrain essential. Awareness and avoidance of runout zones at low altitudes essential. Good group management and safe travel using mountain features essential (eg: ridges, protected slopes). Natural avalanches will occur. Human triggered avalanches will occur with single person loading. Experience in avalanche hazard evaluation essential. Good visibility and very good route finding in mountain terrain essential. Awareness and avoidance of runout zones at low altitudes essential. Good group management and safe travel using mountain features essential (eg ridges, protected slopes). Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches likely with single person loading. Experience in avalanche hazard evaluation important. Good visibility and very good route finding in mountain terrain is necessary. Good group management and safe travel using mountain features necessary (eg ridges, protected slopes). Human triggered avalanches possible. Experience in avalanche hazard evaluation important. Good visibility and good route selection required, especially in steep locations as indicated in the reports. Good spacing between persons is necessary to reduce loading on slopes. Good group management and use of safe travel mountain features important (eg ridges, protected slopes). Human triggered avalanches not likely, generally safe travel conditions.

VERY HIGH

HIGH

CONSIDERaBLE

MODERaTE

LOW

January 2014

The GreaT OUTdOOrs

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