Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
28 May 2005
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Agenda
Introduction/Background Hazard Identification Risk Assessment Risk Management An Example
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Purpose
Provide Risk Assessment Knowledge: Hazard Identification Risk Assessment - Determining Probability & Consequence Use of Risk Matrix Risk Management - Prevention and Mitigation
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Options Options
Develop Developand and evaluate evaluate risk-reducing risk-reducing options options
Identification and evaluation of potential alternatives: Good options
What can I do about it?
Evaluate and identify the most cost effective resource allocations: Best decision
Which things should I do, and in what order?
Biggest problems
Some are worse than others...which ones? Page 4
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Hazard Identification
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Hazard Identification
A Hazard is a property or condition that has the potential to cause harm to people, property or the environment, or other unwanted event, eg flammable product, poorly maintained equipment Key to effective risk assessment and risk management is hazard identification Hazards need to be recognized and controlled There are various approaches to hazard identification: HAZOP reviews Checklist based reviews Experience based reviews / Expert judgement
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A) Injuries or ill-Health
falls from height / overboard hit by / trapped between objects (wires, machinery, lifting equipment...) asphyxiation (low O2 or high N2) toxic gas exposure (H2S) burns (fire, steam, hot oil) electrocution ..............
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D)Public disruption or adverse media attention Environmental / Community spills on land or water waste disposal air emissions odour / noise effluent water quality pipeline leaks
E)Plant Reliability accelerated fouling, corrosion, erosion utility failure equipment failure unscheduled shutdowns
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Risk Assessment
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What is RISK ?
A Hazard is a property or condition that has the potential to cause an unwanted event Risk is a measure of the likelihood and severity of that event
The magnitude of the Risk is a function of both the probability that the event will occur, and the severity of its consequences:
= measure of the frequency or likelihood of the event = measure of its adverse effects = probability x consequences of a scenario
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RISK MATRIX
Probability A B C D E Definitions * Possibility of Repeated Events Possibility of Isolated Incidents Possibility of Occurring Sometime Not Likely to Occur Probability Near Zero
IV CONSEQUENCES I II
FREQUENCY A B C D E
III
* Th e Prob ab ility d es crip tion s r efe r to the po ssib ility o f th e scen ar io occu rr ing * Th e Prob ab ility d es crip tion s r efe r to the po ssib ility o f th e scen ar io occu rr ing du rin g the life of the pr oc ess or pla nt. du rin g the life of the pr oc ess or pla nt.
II
III
IV
T o e xte nt po ssible , e stim at es o f Pr ob ab ility a nd Co nse qu enc es sho uld be de riv ed fro m exp er ien ce dur ing life cyc le o f sim ila r o pe ra tion s in Exxo nM ob il an d its T o e xte nt po ssible , e stim at es o f Pr ob ab ility a nd Co nse qu enc es sho uld be de riv ed fro m exp er ien ce dur ing life cyc le o f sim ila r o pe ra tion s in Exxo nM ob il an d its af filiat es. In dus try ex per ien ce sho uld be co nsid er ed wh en limit ed EM exp er ien ce is av aila ble af filiat es. In dus try ex per ien ce sho uld be co nsid er ed wh en limit ed EM exp er ien ce is av aila ble
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MATRIX IS DIVIDED INTO 3 LEVELS OF RISK Intolerable risk: continued operation reviewed by affiliate management; reviewed annually until corrective action reduces risk Tolerable risk: cost/benefit analysis to help decide if remedial action is taken or risk is accepted Negligence risk: no action required, but cost-effective improvements may be worthwhile
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Identify a hazard
CONSEQUENCES I
II
DEFINE A SCENARIO
III
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
Determine probability
Determine consequences
Place on matrix
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Scenario Definition
Specific scenarios help focus the analysis
Provide credible description of the sequence of events leading to an incident Identify the initiating event Describe subsequent propagating events Identify failures of existing preventing, alerting and mitigating controls Define the type, quantity and conditions of released substance Estimate potential consequences
Be as precise as possible - try to keep event precise, not all encompassing. Developing incident scenarios is a key activity of the risk assessment process
Many marine related scenarios already developed from SMS
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FREQUENCY
Identify a hazard
CONSEQUENCES I
II
III
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
DETERMINE PROBABILITY
Determine consequences
Place on matrix
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FREQUENCY
Identify a hazard
CONSEQUENCES I
II
Define a scenario
III
IV
Determine probability
DETERMINE CONSEQUENCES
Place on matrix
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Scenario Consequences
Evaluate the magnitude of consequences use experienced judgement, or quantitative method (eg models) consider all consequence categories: health & safety public disruption environmental impact financial impact remember outrage factor (public and media attention) impact can be greater than physical consequences
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Scenario Consequences
Assigned consequences must be realistic / credible. Usually the most likely consequences are selected, not the worst imaginable. If higher level consequences are, however, also considered realistic, they should be evaluated as a new scenario. Worst case events tend to be less frequent, and vice versa Consequence severities can be very different in the different categories, eg an oil spill with major environmental impact, but no personnel injuries The highest or most sever consequence category is the one that is used
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FREQUENCY
Identify a hazard
CONSEQUENCES I
II
III
IV
Determine probability
Determine consequences
PLACE ON MATRIX
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Remember:
Nothing is absolutely safe But it can be tolerable Intolerably high risk can be reduced to a tolerable level by: improving prevention (reducing probability) improving mitigation (reducing consequence) In some countries, legislation may require risks to be reduced to levels As Low As Reasonably Practical, (ALARP)
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FREQUENCY
Identify a hazard
CONSEQUENCES I
II
III
IV
Determine probability
Determine consequences
PLACE ON MATRIX
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INCIDENT
emergency response
LOSS
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Re-routing of vessels to avoid navigation hazards Installation of Port VTS Dredging of channels to reduce groundings Use of escort tugs to protect against engine failure Installation of high level alarms to prevent overfilling Increased surveillance/Use of CCTV to identify incidents Establish mooring guidelines to protect against breakouts Training, training and more training
Increased fixed fire fighting equipment Additional fireproofing Improved Spill containment
additional isolation valves improved secondary containment
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Incident Scenario
A loaded North Sea Shuttle vessel grounds due to navigational error during Port entry. Grounding causes rupture of 2 forward centre cargo tanks, releasing 16000 tonnes crude oil to water. The Port area contains some environmentally sensitive habitats and an active fishing community No injuries are sustained and no fire ensues.
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FREQUENCY A I B C D E
CONSEQUENCES
II
III
A loaded North Sea Shuttle vessel grounds due to navigational error during Port entry.
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
Probability A B C D E
Definition Possibility of Repeated Events Possibility of Isolated Incidents Possibility of Occurring Sometime Not Likely to Occur Probability Near Zero
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What are the consequences of the scenario? Grounding causes rupture of 2 forward centre cargo tanks, releasing 16000 tonnes crude oil to water. No injuries are sustained and no fire ensues.
Public Disruption Large Community Small Community Minor Minimal to None Environmental Impact Major/Extended duration Full Scale Response Serious/Significant Resource Commitment Moderate/Limited Response of Short Duration Minor/Little or No Response Needed Financial Impact Corporate Region or Affiliate Division or Site Other
CONSEQUENCES
II
III
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
Consequences I II III IV
Health & Safety Fatalities/serious Impact on Public Serious Injury to Personnel Limited impact on Public Personnel Medical Treatment No Impact on Public Minor Impact on Personnel
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Identify a concern
A I B CONSEQUENCES
FREQUENCY C D E
II
III
Determine probability
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
Determine consequences
Place on matrix
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CONSEQUENCES
Probability A B C D E
Health & Safety Fatalities/serious Impact on Public Serious Injury to Personnel Limited impact on Public Personnel Medical Treatment No Impact on Public Minor Impact on Personnel Public Disruption Large Community Small Community Minor Minimal to None
Definition Possibility of Repeated Events Possibility of Isolated Incidents Possibility of Occurring Sometime Not Likely to Occur Practically Near Zero
Environmental Impact Major/Extended duration Full Scale Response Serious/Significant Resource Commitment Moderate/Limited Response of Short Duration Minor/Little or No Response Needed Financial Impact Corporate Region or Affiliate Division or Site Other
II
III
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
Consequences I II III IV
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CONSEQUENCES
X Y Y
Y
II
III
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
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FREQUENCY A I B C D E
CONSEQUENCES
II
III
IV
X Evaluated Risk Before; Y Risk with implemented measures
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