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PERT and CPM

PERT: Program Evaluation and Review Technique CPM: Critical Path Method

Graphically displays project activities Estimates how long the project will take Indicates most critical activities Show where delays will not affect project

Arranged by Dr. Syed Hassan Javed

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Developed in 1950s CPM by DuPont for chemical plants PERT by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile

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maintenance

Project Management

The Network Diagram

Network (precedence) diagram Activity-on-arrow (AOA) Activity-on-node (AON) Activities Events

Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the project

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The Network Diagram (contd)

Path

Sequence of activities that leads from the starting node to the finishing node The longest path; determines expected project duration Activities on the critical path

Critical path

Critical activities

Slack

Allowable slippage for path; the difference the length of path and the length of critical path

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Project Network Activity on Arrow

AOA
Locate facilities Order furniture

4
Furniture setup

2
Remodel

1
Interview

5
Move in Hire and train

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Project Management

Project Network Activity on Node

Order furniture Locate facilities

Furniture setup

AON

1
Remodel

6
Move in

S
Hire and train

Interview

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Network Conventions
a c b a b c

a a c b b d

c Dummy activity

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Time Estimates

Deterministic

Time estimates that are fairly certain

Probabilistic

Estimates of times that allow for variation

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Deterministic time estimates

8 weeks

6 weeks

4 2
11 weeks

3 weeks

1
4 weeks 9 weeks

Move in

1 week

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Routs to reach from 1 to 6

1)

1-2-4-5-6 (16weeks ) 1-2-5-6 ( 20 weeks ) 1-3-5-6 ( 14 weeks )

2)

3)

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Deterministic time estimates

8 weeks

6 weeks

4 2
11 weeks

3 weeks

1
4 weeks 9 weeks

Move in

1 week

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Example 1 Solution
Critical Path

Path 1-2-3-4-5-6 1-2-5-6 1-3-5-6

Length
(weeks)

Slack 2 0 6

18 20 14

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Computing Algorithm

Network activities

ES: early start (As soon as you can start the activity) EF: early finish (As soon you can finish the activity) LS: late start ( For back calculations) LF: late finish ( For back calculations) Expected project duration Slack time Critical path

Used to determine

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Computing ES, EF, LF, LS

Slack (LS-ES)

Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 2-5 3-5 4-5 5-6

duration ES 8 0 4 0 6 8 11 8 9 4 3 14 1 19

EF 8 4 14 19 13 17 20

LF 8 10 16 19 19 19 20

LS LS-ES 0 0 6 6 10 2 8 0 10 6 16 2 19 0

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CPM

EXAMPLES OF CRITICAL PATH METHOD

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Picnic program

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REQUIREMENTS OF NODE DIAGRAM

1)

DEFINE ACTIVITIES

2)

DEFINE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ACTIVITY DEFINE PRECEDENCE ORDER

3)

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Without precedence

Picnic program
Activities A B C PREPARE TEA PREPARE FRUITS PREPARE SANDWICHES Time in min 20 5 10

D
E F G H

PREPARE BASKET
DRESS UP COLECT BLANKETS PREPARE SUIT CASE LOAD CAR

10
15 5 20 10

I
J

GET GAS
GET SPARES

10
15

DRIVE

30

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HOW TO ARRANGE IT

6 2 8 7

1
3 10

4
5

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Picnic program
Activities A B 1,3 PREPARE TEA 1,2 PREPARE FRUITS Time in min 20 5

C
D E F

2,3 PREPARE SANDWICHES

3,4 PREPARE BASKET 4,6 DRESS UP 4,5 COLECT BLANKETS

10
10 15 5

G
H I J K

5,6 PREPARE SUIT CASE

6,7 LOAD CAR 7,8 GET GAS 8,9 GET SPARES 9,10 DRIVE

20
10 10 15 30

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NODE DIAGRAM

`A

20

10

15

10

10

15

30

10

5B
2

10 C

5F
5

20 G

MAX TIME = 120 MIN .

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NODE DIAGRAM

10

CRITICAL PATH 1-34-5-6-7-8-9-10

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CPM

EXAMPLE CONSTRUCTION OF A ROOM

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ACIVITIES TIME IN DAYS

A
B C D E

1-3

FOUNDATION

2
1 1 3 2

1-2 BRICKS COLLECTION 2-3 CEMENT COLLECTION 3-4 FIRST DPC 4-6 CURING

F
G H I J K L M N O P Q R S

4-5 BRICKS COLLECTION

5-6 CEMENT COLLECTION 6-7 2ND DPC 7-9 CURING 7-8 BRICKS COLLECTION 8-9 CEMENT COLLECTION 9-11 WALLS 10-11 EARTH FILLING 11-13 ROOF 11-12 DOOR AND WINDOW 12-16 SERVICES 13-14 PLASTERS 14-16 FLOORS 14-15 WHITE WASH

1
1 2 2 1 1 5 1 21 5 15 2 15 2

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NODE DIAGRAM

10

15

11

13

14

16

12

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FIND OUT THE CRITICAL PATH

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PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique

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Probabilistic Time Estimates

Optimistic time

Time required under optimal conditions

Pessimistic time

Time required under worst conditions

Most likely time

Most probable length of time that will be required

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Probabilistic Estimates

to Activity start Optimistic time

tm

te

tp Pessimistic time

Most likely time (mode)

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Expected Time

te

t + 4t +t o m p = 6
te = expected time to = optimistic time tm = most likely time tp = pessimistic time

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Variance

2 (t t ) = p o 36

2 = variance to = optimistic time tp = pessimistic time

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Example
Most likely time Pessimistic time

Optimistic time

2-4-6 b
3-4-5 d 3-5-7 e 4-6-8 h 5-7-9 f

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Path Probabilities
Z = Specified time Path mean Path standard deviation

Z indicates how many standard deviations of the path distribution the specified time is beyond the expected path duration.

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17 Weeks 1.00 a-b-c 10.0 Weeks

d-e-f 16.0 1.00 Weeks

g-h-i
13.5 Weeks

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Time-cost Trade-offs: Crashing

Crash shortening activity duration Procedure for crashing

Crash the project one period at a time Only an activity on the critical path Crash the least expensive activity Multiple critical paths: find the sum of crashing the least expensive activity on each critical path

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Advantages of PERT

Forces managers to organize Provides graphic display of activities Identifies

4
2 1 5 6

Critical activities Slack activities

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Limitations of PERT

Important activities may be omitted Precedence relationships may not be 4 correct 2 Estimates may include a fudge factor 1 May focus solely on critical path
3
142 weeks 5 6