The worst job in world politics?

Wednesday 29 Jan 2014

On first reading, it sounded like a gutsy decision. After months of political turmoil, Thailand s em!attled prime minister, "ingluck #hina$atra, has decided to proceed $ith a disputed national election this #unday. %here $ere plenty of reasons to postpone it. %ake for e&ample, the fact that the nation has been rocked by three months of anti-government protests by largely middle and upper class protestors in in Bangkok. %hey accuse "ingluck's administration of corruption and a!use of po$er $ith demonstrators trying to shut the capital do$n !y !locking roads, ma(or intersections and go)ernment ministries. %hen, there $as the determined opposition from %hailand's electoral commission. %he head of the organisation said the atmosphere $as so highly charged that it $as not safe for election officials to conduct the poll. *We !elie)e chaos $ill ensue. Our recommendation is to hold elections in three or four months' time,+ said #omchai #risutthiyakorn. We got a pre-election taster a few days ago, when people registered for early voting tried to cast their ballots. Anti,go)ernment demonstrators s$armed do-ens of polling stations in .angkok, o!structing and intimidating )oters and chaining up the gates. /undreds of thousands of people $ere denied a chance to participate, !reaking a pledge made !y protest mo)ement leader #uthep %haugsu!an not to hinder the election. Watch0 my on-stage duel with a protest leader in Bangkok 1espite escalation of tensions, the prime minister has decided to continue, perhaps reassured !y the kno$ledge that she is the fa)ourite to $in. 2s "ingluck and her 3heu %hai party are regarded as the )oice of the populous rural poor, $hile the protestors in .angkok represent the ur!an minority. 4f that sounds like the end of the matter, $ell, think again. /er pro!a!le )ictory raises a series of trou!ling 5uestions a!out go)ernment 6 and the nation she $ill lead if re,elected. One of these issues is the strong possi!ility that "ingluck's administration $ill not !e a!le to pass la$s 6 or e)en a !udget. %he protestors ha)e pre)ented so many election candidates from registering for the election that the ne$ parliament $ill lack a 5uorum 6 and $ithout the re5uired num!er of 23's the ne$ go)ernment cannot function.

%hen, she has a ci)il insurgency in the capital to deal $ith, led !y career politicians $ho refuse to negotiate. 7or can she rely on the support of %hailand's all,po$erful military to help her out. When asked on the $eekend $hether she thought the generals !acked her, 2s "ingluck hummed and ha,ed and said0 *"ou'll ha)e to ask the army.+ 4t does not stop there8 the country's rice farmers 6 once considered among the go)ernment's staunchest supporters 6 ha)e erected road !locks nation$ide after the failure of a go)ernment su!sidy scheme to pay them for their crops. 4n our special report on hannel ! "ews, you can see ho$ some deeply inde!ted farmers ha)e taken their o$n li)es $ith their relati)es !laming the go)ernment. halerm #an $aeng, a %&-year old farmer, died after the governments rice scheme failed to pay him for three successive harvests. 4t makes you $onder then, $hy "ingluck #hina$atra $ants the top (o! in %hai politics. 4t is a 5uestion 4 put to one of her oldest friends, 2aha$an 9$ang, a radio talk sho$ host in the northern city of :hang 2ai. /is ans$er $as some$hat surprising. *#he ne)er $anted to !e prime minister,+ he said. *4 used to tell her that she should follo$ ;her !rother< %haksin into politics !ut she told me she $asn't interested. %alk to my sister,' she used to say.+ #uch comments pro)ide ammunition to 2s "ingluck's opponents, $ho assert that the prime minister is little more than a puppet 6 a $oman $ho does the !idding of her !illionaire !rother, %haksin #hina$atra. A former %hai prime minister, 2r %haksin fled the country for 1u!ai after a con)iction for a!use of po$er in 200=. %here is an alternati)e )ie$ ho$e)er, ad)anced !y supporters and friends like 2r 9a$ang, $ho argue the current prime minister is a $hole lot tougher than people think. *#he is an intelligent $oman $ho happens to !e )ery strong,+ said 2r 9a$ang. *"ou can see $hat it is like in %hailand. 7o one $ould $ant to lead this country right no$.+ 4ndeed, the top (o! in %hailand appears to !e of the most challenging positions in $orld politics and 2s "ingluck seems on course to $in it 6 the likely leader of a di)ided and unhappy nation. #o it seems )ictory on #unday may not feel like )ictory for long. - See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/world-news-blog