Winning Lotto Strategies 1

Analysis of Winning Lotto Strategies

Analysis of Winning Lotto Strategies Brandon K. Mackay Brigham Young University

Winning Lotto Strategies 2

Abstract
Winning lotto strategies are published abundantly in books and on the internet. Ranging in approaches from calculating delta numbers to finding numbers that show up in pairs, one can discover just about any method. This article analyzes a few such strategies and identifies their fallacies.

Analysis of Winning Lotto Strategies

Everyone that plays a lottery hopes to win the big jackpot by finding a key that will help them pick the winning numbers. Many people analyze statistics and pour over tables of data in hopes of finding a winning strategy. Many of these people unintentionally make mistakes in their assumptions and calculations, while others do so on purpose to make their strategy appear superior and thereby sell their product. These products can be anything from books to wheels to computer programs. We will look at a few of the many different winning strategy claims and lotto systems to identify their logical and mathematical fallacies. Then we will use the Oregon State Lotto game, Megabucks, to show how lotteries are administered in an unbiased way.

Strategies
Overdue Numbers One common, subconscious strategy that is used looks for numbers that are overdue. Suppose that while betting on heads/tails of coin flips, the most recent 15 flips have come up heads. This is a sign to many people that the probability of heads appearing again is extremely small, so they place their bet on tails.
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 Lotto Numbers

Times Selected

Winning Lotto Strategies 3 On the previous page is a graph of winning numbers for the past 273 drawings. Following this mindset, one would choose 11, 36, 46, or any combination of these, claiming these numbers were overdue to be picked. In addition, hit/skip charts are created by hand or on computers, to help keep track of how long it has been since certain numbers have appeared. Usually, serious hit/skip charts span the last 30-50 drawings. An abbreviated version with the numbers 1-10 for the last 15 drawings follows.
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Last 15 Drawings X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

From the chart, a player might notice that the number 10 has not been drawn in the last 15 drawings and is therefore, overdue to be drawn. A similar case could be made for the number 4, which last came up 13 drawings ago. The player might do this because he erroneously thinks that if the lotto is fair then eventually each number will be chosen the same number of times. This common misunderstanding is sometimes called the Law of Averages. In reality, if the lotto is fair, each number will have the same probability of being selected on any given drawing. It does not matter if the number 13 has been drawn ten times in a row. It will have the same probability of being drawn on the next draw as any other number. In a game of 48 possible numbers, this probability is 1/48 (~ 2%). This is because each drawing is independent of all past drawing. Bear in mind that the drawing device does not care about past winning numbers; what happened in the past has no relevance on future drawings. Thinking of events as dependant, when they are independent, is a common error, and is officially called the Gamblers Fallacy. Sums of Winning Numbers Another proposed winning strategy creates a distribution of the sums of the winning lotto numbers. This system plots the sum of the winning numbers of each

Winning Lotto Strategies 4 drawing and then finds the mean of this distribution. Then, by choosing your lotto numbers so that their sum is equal to the mean of the previous drawings, you supposedly improve your chances. To illustrate this, let us look at the data from the last 273 drawings of the Oregon State Lotto game Megabucks.
Winning Numbers
7 3 3 12 2 8 8 1 1 2 11 2 3 9 5 5 1 18 3 2 4 20 1 14 3 6 6 8 12 6 13 9 2 11 20 1 4 15 12 15 8 4 11 7 5 5 10 4 1 7 4 11 5 4 1 8 8 14 6 6 16 18 15 24 14 14 5 14 5 15 15 20 9 7 19 5 6 16 22 2 15 4 10 9 12 18 13 14 15 7 21 23 4 18 25 14 20 14 11 21 12 15 11 14 8 27 13 7 19 12 10 2 12 13 18 14 14 24 23 22 26 17 25 27 18 9 31 17 31 18 26 34 23 23 18 28 16 25 23 15 12 13 24 17 17 19 15 27 24 5 24 29 18 25 22 14 43 21 17 17 21 9 30 14 14 24 16 17 5 17 26 29 22 24 29 30 28 28 18 30 34 36 14 44 18 32 24 29 37 29 38 21 37 27 38 31 26 18 15 27 20 31 21 29 28 27 14 34 35 20 38 26 32 44 33 38 20 29 13 34 17 15 29 23 18 24 24 34 30 26 26 34 31 32 37 26 38 40 41 34 45 22 36 38 37 38 36 43 40 42 33 39 42 42 24 30 32 25 35 29 37 36 32 27 37 38 36 42 27 38 46 38 40 26 33 23 36 25 40 37 34 24 27 27 44 32 28 28 46 46 46 45 43 44 45 42 47 48 23 47 39 45 42 38 46 45 46 34 42 44 47 40 43 47 27 43 44 42 38 35 31 47 47 37 43 29 45 47 39 46 46 35 29 40 42 45 39 38 26 47 48 48

130 99 101 161 150 151 168 119 152 153 162 111 186 104 171 133 145 188 134 158 144 195 113 173 147 146 109 121 160 108 153 137 132 161 161 82 164 189 137 183 126 144 212 150 161 125 142 86 168 118 125 159 128 99 106 136 173

31 9 10 3 8 6 1 11 13 2 1 3 1 5 1 10 4 10 1 16 10 1 12 1 8 8 4 2 2 5 25 7 11 3 12 16 9 12 4 2 3 15 15 3 2 7 13 1 3 16 8 2 10 5 4 3 8 2

35 12 20 11 10 20 10 13 14 17 12 15 5 7 13 15 15 31 14 22 22 4 14 3 19 16 11 6 12 34 26 9 14 6 26 18 13 26 7 3 9 21 17 4 6 9 27 6 14 22 22 6 13 12 21 6 25 27

36 24 38 18 12 25 11 23 18 32 26 16 13 9 28 24 28 37 16 23 25 8 17 4 29 23 15 11 13 35 28 16 15 10 27 21 21 34 9 13 11 25 29 6 28 13 33 11 18 38 23 12 14 20 31 13 32 31

37 30 43 26 27 38 15 35 24 33 34 28 24 21 33 35 37 43 24 24 32 15 18 16 40 29 18 21 14 37 31 19 24 12 32 44 32 37 10 14 15 42 31 27 31 26 34 12 40 40 27 13 26 29 32 37 33 33

40 31 44 39 39 39 42 43 41 43 38 33 40 34 46 39 44 44 25 27 44 20 29 22 41 38 31 23 26 43 41 42 31 34 35 45 41 45 23 21 41 44 35 30 37 31 40 19 43 42 40 35 40 38 34 38 35 43

42 47 47 48 42 41 45 46 48 44 44 37 46 47 48 43 45 47 33 33 46 48 37 37 44 42 45 31 48 44 47 46 48 45 45 46 47 48 26 25 46 47 38 41 41 47 44 40 46 48 45 39 43 45 48 45 41 44

221 153 202 145 138 169 124 171 158 171 155 132 129 123 169 166 173 212 113 145 179 96 127 83 181 156 124 94 115 198 198 139 143 110 177 190 163 202 79 78 125 194 165 111 145 133 191 89 164 206 165 107 146 149 170 142 174 180

6 6 6 6 14 1 10 18 1 5 3 1 5 2 3 11 1 2 10 9 19 1 3 2 3 2 4 5 7 2 1 5 4 11 2 10 2 1 16 7 3 3 6 16 6 9 10 5 1 13 16 6 12 7 4 6 12 6

9 7 14 15 28 2 12 21 8 6 18 2 13 13 11 16 7 14 25 15 22 17 7 9 12 13 8 12 10 12 11 12 7 14 8 18 6 2 21 8 4 6 19 25 10 14 12 6 6 19 27 19 13 9 6 8 20 15

13 11 16 24 38 6 23 22 21 14 26 10 20 15 19 18 20 22 39 30 24 19 17 12 27 16 16 29 19 25 23 17 11 24 13 22 8 19 24 23 6 23 20 35 12 18 19 7 10 30 34 27 19 12 9 13 25 23

25 12 27 30 39 23 35 27 24 19 29 14 35 16 39 21 21 32 43 31 29 20 31 21 30 26 31 31 28 35 30 31 13 30 30 23 17 26 35 25 23 29 29 45 20 23 38 30 19 35 40 37 21 16 15 26 27 25

40 32 32 39 42 26 39 30 27 21 33 15 38 17 40 29 30 34 47 40 34 22 33 36 31 27 33 33 29 46 35 32 17 35 34 25 30 34 39 28 35 36 30 47 21 41 42 31 22 42 44 38 27 24 27 29 32 39

43 47 40 44 44 44 41 46 38 30 48 17 39 30 48 48 35 42 48 47 43 32 45 41 33 31 39 39 30 47 42 46 23 41 43 40 34 45 48 47 38 45 31 48 37 47 47 39 34 43 45 41 42 43 47 38 41 43

136 115 135 158 205 102 160 164 119 95 157 59 150 93 160 143 114 146 212 172 171 111 136 121 136 115 131 149 123 167 142 143 75 155 130 138 97 127 183 138 109 142 135 216 106 152 168 118 92 182 206 168 134 111 108 120 157 151

Winning Lotto Strategies 5

9 16 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 1 1 1 13 6 4 4 3 2 4 7 23 1 7 2 5 10 24 1 14 5 7 1 5 7 12 18 6 7 9 6 18 6 16 2 19 7 15 11 5 25 5 13 10 12 25 18 17 3 7 11 30 3 25 13 12 3 7 13 31 26 17 18 18 13 22 14 20 17 27 10 16 14 10 26 6 15 19 14 28 19 18 8 8 16 33 12 28 15 19 17 15 21 42 37 21 30 21 39 23 18 26 21 28 34 19 15 24 30 9 17 30 31 35 27 28 15 9 27 39 15 42 16 20 28 18 26 46 40 23 37 23 42 30 24 44 40 45 37 39 22 28 35 15 19 32 43 41 34 36 23 23 28 41 21 43 22 25 39 32 29 48 43 38 47 47 45 40 47 47 41 47 43 48 25 33 48 38 20 38 46 47 38 42 46 38 36 47 23 48 28 40 44 40 34 188 180 110 143 123 150 138 112 158 122 167 132 150 93 104 168 76 86 133 153 199 137 148 97 90 128 214 75 200 99 123 132 117 130 9 1 4 1 8 4 2 11 5 10 11 4 8 7 2 10 2 4 15 1 12 13 9 20 21 12 11 9 8 11 1 8 3 5 14 25 14 3 10 8 15 20 12 12 18 16 14 8 8 19 3 12 16 3 19 20 12 21 22 23 20 10 17 21 5 9 5 6 16 26 27 5 17 15 39 23 19 24 22 17 19 11 10 23 20 16 20 8 31 22 14 24 30 28 26 13 20 24 33 21 13 18 18 28 32 16 25 23 40 34 24 31 30 19 23 28 20 34 22 24 28 13 37 28 15 28 33 35 29 30 26 27 34 31 26 39 21 39 37 26 32 25 44 37 26 32 32 23 38 33 21 40 33 31 31 33 42 33 26 29 35 41 40 32 36 43 41 43 31 41 38 48 48 28 42 42 47 46 41 33 42 45 41 45 25 44 42 39 39 35 43 38 27 35 41 47 43 36 38 46 42 48 45 47 116 167 162 79 134 117 187 171 127 142 155 124 143 132 86 170 122 126 149 93 184 154 103 157 182 186 169 130 145 172 156 160 123 156 3 22 12 1 2 2 7 4 6 1 3 3 1 1 5 3 17 17 5 4 3 8 3 4 17 1 2 9 5 3 5 3 5 36 17 8 9 14 19 20 18 3 7 13 2 4 7 20 18 24 8 9 4 23 19 9 20 4 6 19 21 12 20 4 14 43 20 14 30 20 32 25 29 6 15 15 7 19 9 24 29 29 14 25 20 26 32 22 25 10 22 23 22 32 30 6 24 45 22 27 39 22 35 27 30 16 26 21 29 20 17 31 34 42 20 27 23 27 33 23 39 14 23 30 24 33 31 14 35 46 23 30 43 33 37 34 36 23 35 25 45 45 20 32 41 44 21 31 26 32 41 27 42 22 31 37 29 36 40 17 48 47 44 32 47 42 45 43 37 35 45 44 46 47 39 39 43 47 34 47 38 36 44 28 47 38 34 43 40 41 41 40 129 239 138 112 170 133 175 153 156 84 131 121 130 136 97 149 182 203 102 143 114 152 172 113 190 89 118 161 141 157 167 84

We find that the mean of the sums of the winning numbers is 142.7. Then we find that the median of this distribution is 143. Therefore, we know that the distribution is close to symmetrical. Now, if you were using this system, you would select your numbers so that their sum equaled 143. As you begin to do this you realize that there are numerous ways to choose numbers that fit this criteria. By running a simple counter program in Pascal* to add up all these possibilities, you will find that there are 147,670 such ways! Furthermore, upon observation we find that 143 has not appeared as the sum of the winning numbers in the last 89 drawings. We note also that the number 143 has only occurred as the sum five times in the last 273 drawings, and of those few occurrences, you have a 1:147,670 per ticket chance of choosing the winning number. I would hardly call this probability good. The Killer Lotto Strategy The author of this system, like many others, sells computer programs, which are necessary for his strategy to work. His major claim is that numbers show a bias towards

Winning Lotto Strategies 6 being drawn with the rest of the lotto numbers (Saliu, 2002). His computer programs sort out the numbers that appear as the most frequent pairs. The table below is an example the author uses from a 6/69 game.
1 8 4 39 2 23 1 16 4 5 2 43 1 Hits 30 4 44 2 10 1 19 22 3 51 2 45 1 25 3 52 2 47 1 14 3 53 2 48 1 31 3 54 2 49 1 32 3 58 2 50 1 42 3 63 2 26 1 27 2 68 2 12 1 29 2 7 1 28 1 17 2 18 1 13 1 21 2 3 1 56 1 15 2 37 1 57 1 33 2 9 1 4 1 35 2 40 1 61 1 36 2 41 1 62 1

Number With #: Hits: With #: Hits: With #: Hits:

With #: Hits: Pairs total

2 1

64 1 95

65 1

6 1

69 1

24 0

59 0

60 0

38 0

11 0

46 0

34 0

55 0

66 0

67 0

19 0

20 0

This proposition of bias would be valid for any small finite set of drawings, which is what the author uses to show his program works. He fails to mention how many drawings this sample is taken from. Obviously, his data for the pairs of the number 1 came from only 19 samples. This does not give us an accurate assessment of the occurrences of these pairs. We can better understand the anticipated behavior of this experiment by using the law of large numbers. Without loss of generality, we analyze all of the drawings where the number 1 was selected, to show that over time, the probability diminishes of having a number with a bias of being drawn with the number 1. The law of large numbers, P[ |p_ - p| > _ ] (p_q)/(n_ _2), declares that no matter how small an _ is specified, the probability P that the sample probability (p_ ) differs from the single-trial probability of success (p) by more than _ can be made arbitrarily small by sufficiently increasing the number of trials n (Epstein, 1977, p. 28). Now to apply the law of large numbers to our sample of lotto numbers that include 1, we will let p = n_pi, where n is the number of trials and pi is the single-trial probability of the number X being drawn. The sample (observed) probability of X being drawn is p_. Now we let _ be arbitrarily small, and as we take more trials (increase n) we see that (p_q) / (n_ _2) converges to zero. Thus, by our inequality we see that P(|p_ - p|) also converges to zero; this says that the probability (P) that the sample probability (p_)

Winning Lotto Strategies 7 differs from the single-trial probability of success (p) approaches zero as the number of trials increases. In other words, the probability (P) of the difference of the probability of the number X being chosen when the number 1 is also chosen (p_) and the probability of the single-trial probability (p), approaches zero as the number of games you play increases. Thus, in the long run the bias will not be so significant, and this system will not appear so amazing.

Systems
The systems that we have discussed thus far are based on past results from the game. Lotto is a game of chance, based on a random selection of numbers. It is not possible to consistently predict a random event. Consequently, do not concern yourself with coupon patterns, overdue numbers, frequency statistics or other implausible good luck charms. Although interesting, these systems have absolutely no bearing on the ability to predict the winning numbers, nor the chances of winning a prize. A random selection of numbers cannot, by definition, form a pattern. Whether you play the four game minimum entry once a month, or invest $10,000 every week - every game played by either strategy has as much chance of winning a prize as all the others. Although it seems unlikely, even the numbers - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 - have as much chance of being drawn together as any other combination of six numbers. The strategies that we will now discuss deal with the lotto in a more mathematical approach and rely on past observations only for supportive evidence. The Delta Number Strategy Delta numbers are created by subtracting a number from the number following it. For instance, take the lotto number 2 5 9 19 20 39, its delta number would be: 2 3 4 10 1 19. The idea of delta numbers comes from computers and the way that they store data in memory. By compressing data in such a way, they are able to hold more data. In fact, this idea of delta numbers and the lotto, emerged as the author of one article was working on computer problems.

Winning Lotto Strategies 8 This particular author makes some surprising claims. First, he observes that the delta number 1 appears 15% of the time. At first, this may seem like a good bet. However, upon further evaluation you will find that the number of ways to "set up" that delta number 1 varies greatly. Try it for yourself. In the boxes below, choose six delta numbers where at least one of them being one. I can then change any of the surrounding numbers (especially those preceding the 1s) which will change your real lotto number.

Your Delta # Your Lotto #

From a textbook on introductory combinatorics we learn that the number of solutions to the equation x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 + x6 48 such that 1 x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 43 can be found by simply by introducing yi = xi 1 and letting S be the set of all nonnegative integral solutions of y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + y6 42. Thus, the size of S, or the number of solutions of S, is equal to C((n+5),n) = 12,271,512 (Brualdi, 1999, p. 171).
n=0

42

Therefore, there are 12,271,512 different ways to choose a delta number so that the sum is less than or equal to 48. It might be a surprise to the author of this system that the number of ways of choosing six numbers from a list of 48 is also 12,271,512. Another way to think about this is that the relationship between lotto numbers and their delta numbers is one-to-one, as illustrated with a bipartite graph. For every lotto number, there is one and only one delta number, and for every delta number, there is one and only one corresponding lotto number. Thus by using delta numbers, the lotto player does not actually increase his/her odds of winning. The Quick and Easy Way The author of this lotto strategy preys upon the modern-day tendency of doing things the quick and easy way. He professes to have discovered in his research a pattern of winning numbers. He claims that "for the majority of all lotteries, the most numbers are drawn from the sets of numbers with final digits 1-2-3-4-5-6" (Castor-Pollux

Winning Lotto Strategies 9 Publications, 2000). For example, take the Oregon Megabucks, which is a 6/48 game. The table shows the numbers of the lotto, sorted in columns by the last digit.
1 11 21 31 41 2 12 22 23 42 3 13 23 33 43 4 14 24 34 44 5 15 25 35 45 6 16 26 36 46 7 17 27 37 47 8 18 28 38 48 9 19 29 39 10 20 30 40

It is quite apparent that the numbers with final digits 1-2-3-4-5-6 make up 30 out of 48 (62.5%) of the total numbers. Obviously then, the majority of the numbers drawn in the lotto will come from this category. Rolling a die with the claim that its likely to get a number between 1 and 6 isnt much different. Just to show that this is true in the lotto, when examining the last 50 drawings of the Oregon Megabucks these numbers came up 62.58% of the time, just as they should. The author also maintains that one may "wheel a selection of numbers from all the numbers" (Castor-Pollux Publications, 2000) in this category and have a greater chance of winning. Conveniently, the wheel and pattern can be found in the authors company magazine, one that he hopes you will subscribe to. I assume that this wheel and system may be mathematically perfect, but would only state the obvious and not give any advantage to winning the lotto. Wheeling Systems One of the most popular lottery products sold is generally called the wheel. Unlike the previous systems that we have analyzed, these systems do not claim to have found a trick to guessing the lotto number that will win the jackpot. Instead, they denounce such practices and take a different approach towards bringing fortune. We will now examine a typical wheeling system. In2play wheeling system
It does not matter how you pick your numbers - it's what you do with those numbers that counts. This is the core element of in2play Lotto Systems. You can use any numbers you choose, they are designed specifically to win the most likely prizes, and are significantly more costeffective than standard Systems Entries. And yes, you can win the 1st Division prize (in2play, 2003).

The purpose of the wheel is to give you as many possible combinations of your selected numbers, so that you might have a better chance of winning at least a lesser prize. The

Winning Lotto Strategies 10 guarantee is If there are SIX Winning numbers in your nine, then AT LEAST five will be in one line (in2play, 2001). The following is an example of an in2play wheel.

Selection Games Guarantee

8 numbers 7 (which is 25% of the standard Systems 8 Entry cost) Match four of the drawn numbers (at least three must be winning numbers) with your System selections, and you will win at least one four-number prize (4th or 5th Division). 1. Enter your selections in the top row of blank squares. 2. Copy each number to every blank square in the column below it. 3. Transfer each horizontal line of six-number combinations to mark a game on your lotto coupon.

Instructions

In2play will be happy to sell you any one of their countless wheeling systems. You can even go in on one with a friend. The downside to these systems is that they take a hefty wallet both to purchase and to play. In2play advertises the obvious in that the more you play, the more numbers you will cover, and thus the more likely you are to win. These specific wheels sell anywhere from $15 to $178, (Order form). Then you must figure in the amount of money that it will cost for you to play all of the number combinations that the wheel instructs you to, for the 20 or 30 times you choose to play. Assume that you use the above wheel to play the Oregon State Megabucks where $1 gets you two tickets. (For our illustration and simplification, we will suppose that you can buy one Megabucks ticket for $.50.) You play 7 lotto tickets on every night there is a lotto drawing (since that is how many combinations our wheel gives), hoping to win at least a match-3 prize, for which you would win $4. At this rate, you would have to win at least a match-3 prize, seven out of every eight weeks just to cover your playing costs, not

Winning Lotto Strategies 11 to mention the cost of the wheel. As you can see, it doesnt take long before you have sunk a lot of money into the lotto. To illustrate this point, I randomly chose eight numbers from 1-48 and then used the Reduced ECONO system 8 wheel to create seven lotto tickets. I then examined the data for Megabucks for the past 136 straight weeks as if I had played. Playing this many games would have cost me $952.00 in tickets alone. I won 20 match-3 prizes, three match-4 prizes, zero match-5 prizes and zero match-6 prizes. Since the match-4 and match 5 prizes were pari-mutual, I had to find out the amount of each on each week that I won. After adding it all up, I found I won a total of $227. That means that after 136 weeks of playing lotto, Im $725 in the hole. The bottom line is wheels do not give you better odds on winning the jackpot. Their only advantage is that IF ALL the winning numbers are included in the set of numbers that you have chosen, THEN you are guaranteed at least a match-3 or 4 or 5 prize, depending on the wheel. Remember that the more numbers the wheel allows you to play increases your odds of guessing the winning six, but the cost of playing increases dramatically so you must win more often to break even. Keep in mind that each ticket you hold has just the same probability of being chosen as any other. However, if you are bent on playing and plan to play more than one ticket with a certain set of lucky numbers, wheels will help you create multiple tickets with the best possible combinations.

Fairness
Bias Of course, patterns observed in winning numbers open up the door for a few questions. Is the method of selecting numbers fair (unbiased)? Many things may play a role in the bias of a lotto. The numbered balls may not be exactly identical. If the number seven ball is even slightly heavier than the others are, this will cause it to linger around the bottom of the cage and not be sucked up by the vacuum tube, lowering its probability of being selected. On the other hand, if the balls are drawn from the bottom of the cage, its probability of selection would be greater than the other numbered balls.

Winning Lotto Strategies 12 The above scenarios of a biased lotto system are possible, but very unlikely. State lotto organizations spend thousands of dollars to make sure that the lotto is unbiased. If it were not so, people would catch on and the lotto would stand to lose millions of dollars. To avoid this, balls are changed frequently, cages are maintained, and many different sets of cages and balls are used to assure randomness. For example, in Oregon, state detectives oversee and are present at all drawings. The Oregon Lotto's random number generator is tested and certified by an external lab and the Oregon State Police (Oregon Lotto, 2003). Now we will show how fairness may be verified. To do this, let us look at the Oregon State Lotto game, Megabucks. Oregon Megabucks In Oregon Megabucks, a player selects six numbers from a set of 48 possible numbers (1-48). A player wins by matching 3, 4, 5, or 6 of the drawn numbers. Hence, the odds of matching all six and winning the jackpot are 1:12,271,513. In May of 2001, Megabucks made a significant changes to its layout. Changing from a ball-selected machine to a random number generator to help ensure complete randomness was the first change. The second was a change from the 6/44 number system to a 6/48 system (Oregon Lotto, 2003). This almost cut in half the odds of winning the jackpot from 1:7,059,053 to 1:12,271,513. Due to these significant changes, we will only look at those drawings that have occurred since May 20, 2001. Observations Since May 21, 2001, there have been 273 drawings of six numbers each. That is 1638 winning numbers. Upon observation of the recent data of Megabucks, you may notice right away that the numbers 14 and 23 have been drawn more than any other number. This may not startle you until you look at the table of winning numbers and realize that 14 has been chosen in eight of the last 25 drawings, including seven of the last 12! The number 23, though not as impressive, still has remarkably appeared in five of the last 25 drawings.

Winning Lotto Strategies 13

Most recent Winning Numbers 7 3 3 12 2 8 8 1 1 2 11 2 3 9 5 5 1 18 3 2 4 20 1 14 3 6 14 6 6 16 18 15 24 14 14 5 14 5 15 15 20 9 7 19 5 6 16 22 2 15 4 10 18 14 14 24 23 22 26 17 25 27 18 9 31 17 31 18 26 34 23 23 18 28 16 25 23 15 29 22 24 29 30 28 28 18 30 34 36 14 44 18 32 24 29 37 29 38 21 37 27 38 31 26 30 26 26 34 31 32 37 26 38 40 41 34 45 22 36 38 37 38 36 43 40 42 33 39 42 42 32 28 28 46 46 46 45 43 44 45 42 47 48 23 47 39 45 42 38 46 45 46 34 42 44 47 6 8 12 6 13 9 2 11 20 1 4 15 12 15 8 4 11 7 5 5 10 4 1 7 4 11 5 4 9 12 18 13 14 15 7 21 23 4 18 25 14 20 14 11 21 12 15 11 14 8 27 13 7 19 12 10 12 13 24 17 17 19 15 27 24 5 24 29 18 25 22 14 43 21 17 17 21 9 30 14 14 24 16 17 18 15 27 20 31 21 29 28 27 14 34 35 20 38 26 32 44 33 38 20 29 13 34 17 15 29 23 18 24 30 32 25 35 29 37 36 32 27 37 38 36 42 27 38 46 38 40 26 33 23 36 25 40 37 34 24 40 43 47 27 43 44 42 38 35 31 47 47 37 43 29 45 47 39 46 46 35 29 40 42 45 39 38 26 1 8 8 31 9 10 3 8 6 1 11 13 2 1 3 1 5 1 10 4 10 1 16 2 12 13 35 12 20 11 10 20 10 13 14 17 12 15 5 7 13 15 15 31 14 22 5 17 26 36 24 38 18 12 25 11 23 18 32 26 16 13 9 28 24 28 37 16 23 24 24 34 37 30 43 26 27 38 15 35 24 33 34 28 24 21 33 35 37 43 24 24 27 27 44 40 31 44 39 39 39 42 43 41 43 38 33 40 34 46 39 44 44 25 27 47 48 48 42 47 47 48 42 41 45 46 48 44 44 37 46 47 48 43 45 47 33 33

10 22 25 32 44 46 (Due to lack of space this is all the table we will include here)

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Frequency

7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46

Youll notice the frequency of the number 36 being drawn is relatively low (only 17 times). The numbers 46 and 48 dont appear to be so hot either, that is, until you look at the table above of recent winning numbers. You will notice that the number 46 has appeared in five of the last 25 drawings. Thats as frequent as 23! So you might see why

Winning Lotto Strategies 14 it would be easy for someone to think they have found a winning pattern. However, by applying the Chi-Square test we are able to determine if this game is unbiased. Chi-Square Test We apply the Chi-Square test

(where xi = the observed frequency of the ith number and Ei = the expected frequency of the ith number) to the following table of drawn lotto numbers to see if the lotto is indeed, unbiased.

c-square test
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Number of times selected 38 34 38 34 39 41 31 32 32 30 27 43 37 45 42 32 33 37 33 38 36 30 Expected number of times 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 Number 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Number of times selected 34 38 39 30 32 35 39 31 28 33 32 17 29 39 33 32 29 35 35 30 32 26 Expected number of times 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125 34.125

Winning Lotto Strategies 15

23 24 44 37 34.125 34.125 47 48 41 26 34.125 34.125

Number of winning balls = 1638 Value of the c-square test = 0.793833445

By running the chi-square test on an excel spreadsheet, we find that the results of the lotto thus far fall within 79.38% of the expected distribution. Thus, we can reject the hypothesis that the Oregon Megabucks game is bias. Remember that this is only taking into account the last 273 drawings.

Conclusion
Upon analysis of the Oregon State Lotto game, Megabucks, (which is a widely used lotto game) we have shown that it is indeed, unbiased. The chi-square test may be used to discover if other lotto games are also unbiased. Thus we may not be fooled into buying every winning lotto strategy that we see because we may verify that the lotto we are playing does not have tendencies or faults. Consequently we see that there are several different types of winning lotto strategies out there, each with their own devices and computer programs. I have only examined a few here, but it should be noted that there are many more. Some make erroneous claims due to ignorance or misunderstanding of statistics and mathematics, while others make similar invalid assertions to try and sell their product. An analysis of each individual strategy would be useful in identifying illogical claims.
*
program Lotto; {Program to count (and display) all the possible ways a set of 6 distinct positive integers can be chosen so that each integer is less than or equal to 48 and the sum of the six is 143.} uses Crt; const yes = 1; no = 0; unintelligible = -1; var Display, N1, N2, N3, N4, N5, N6, Pause, Sum : integer; Possibilities : Longint; AnswerKey : string; k : char; begin ClrScr; Writeln('Possibility Counter'); Writeln; Writeln('Counts the possible ways a set of 6 distinct positive integers'); Writeln('less than or equal to 48 can be chosen so that their sum is 143.'); Writeln('(Note: it is assumed that the order these numbers are chosen is'); Writeln('unimportant.)');

Winning Lotto Strategies 16

Writeln; Writeln; Write('Do you wish to display the generated possibilities (Y/N)? '); Display:=unintelligible; While Display = unintelligible do begin Readln(AnswerKey); if ((AnswerKey = 'Y') or (AnswerKey= 'y')) then Display := yes else if ((AnswerKey='N') or (AnswerKey='n')) then Display := no else begin GotoXY(59,9); Write(' '); GotoXY(59,9); end; end; Writeln; Write('Do you wish to pause the display at the end of every screen (Y/N)? '); Pause:=unintelligible; While Pause = unintelligible do begin Readln(AnswerKey); if ((AnswerKey = 'Y') or (AnswerKey= 'y')) then Pause := yes else if ((AnswerKey='N') or (AnswerKey='n')) then Pause := no else begin GotoXY(68,11); Write(' '); GotoXY(68,11); end; end; Possibilities:=0; for N1:=1 to 43 do for N2:=N1+1 to 44 do for N3:=N2+1 to 45 do for N4:=N3+1 to 46 do for N5:=N4+1 to 47 do for N6:=N5+1 to 48 do begin Sum:=N1+N2+N3+N4+N5+N6; if Sum = 143 then begin Possibilities:=Possibilities+1; if Display = yes then writeln('#',Possibilities,': ',N1,' ',N2,' ',N3,' ',N4,' ',N5,' ',N6); if ((Pause = yes) and (WhereY = 24)) then begin Writeln('Press any key to continue'); k := ReadKey; ClrScr; end; end; end; Writeln; Writeln('There are ',Possibilities,' possible ways to pick six distinct integers'); Writeln('between 1 and 48 whose sum is 143.'); end.