CommoditiesPlantations

January 17, 2014

ASEAN

PLANTATIONS

SHORT TERM (3 MTH)

LONG TERM

SECTOR FLASH NOTE |

CIMB Analyst(s)

Plantation Day - biodiesel theme

We hosted an Indonesia Plantation Day with a focus on the countrys biodiesel efforts. Overall, we are more optimistic on the biodiesel programme as we gather that the biodiesel tender is not the only avenue Pertamina is pursuing to secure biodiesel to meet the higher mandate, contrary to some expectations. The government appears ready to overcome any challenges to ensure the mandate is met. We expect the second biodiesel tender results by Pertamina to show a favourable take-up rate as the pricing mechanism for biodiesel has improved. However, our Neutral stance on the sector is intact. Our top picks are First Resources, Wilmar, AALI, LSIP and Ta Ann Holdings.
Figure 1: CIMBs Indonesia Plantation Day Speakers
Name Dr Dadan Kusdiana Mr Toto Nugroho Mr Aslam Kalyubi Mr Moch Sofyan Mr Fadhil Hasan Mr Johan Unggul Title Director of Bioenergy, Ministry of ESDM New and Renewable Energy Business Development Manager, PT Pertamina Director of Biofuel Producers Association (APROBI) Head of New and Renewable Energy Division, PT PLN Executive Director of Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Chairman of Indonesian Fertilizer Trade Association (ANPI)
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Ivy NG Lee Fang CFA

T (60) 3 2261 9073 E ivy.ng@cimb.com

Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA

T (62) 21 30061732 E erindra.krisnawan@cimb.com

Laura TASLIM
T (62) 21 3006 1723 E laura@cimb.com

What Happened
CIMB hosted a plantation day conference in Jakarta on Wednesday to provide investors the opportunity to hear from six industry experts on the progress and challenges facing the various stakeholders in meeting Indonesias higher biodiesel mandate effective 1 Jan 2014, as well as on production and fertiliser price prospects. Also at the conference were representatives from 8 plantation companies who met with investors in one-on-one and small group discussions.

What We Think

We are more positive on the execution of the Indonesia biodiesel mandates after the key stakeholders pledged their readiness in meeting the higher target. Recently, the market was disappointed when Pertamina revealed that it had secured only 18% of its intended target of 6.6m kl for 2014-15 during its first biodiesel tender. The good news we hear is that that the second tender is likely to attract a higher take up rate as Pertamina has improved the pricing mechanism. Also, Pertamina is willing to revert to the old pricing formula for the remaining supplies that are not tendered out and is committed to fulfilling the mandate. PLN indicated that it is making good progress in meeting its 20% mandate which is also a positive takeaway for us.

What You Should Do

If successfully executed, this could raise the biodiesel usage in Indonesia from 600k-1m kl in 2013 to around 3.3m-4m kl. This will, in turn, reduce the palm oil exports from Indonesia and boost CPO price prospects. We believe the market has not priced in the additional biodiesel demand potential from Indonesia due to concerns over pricing and logistics challenges. However, a successful tender and improved pricing for biodiesel could change market s perception. We maintain our view that the government will raise its usage to 2m kl in 2014, lower than its target of 3.3m-4m kl. But there could be an upside surprise if it is able to secure most of the intended supply through the tender process. We keep our average CPO price forecast of RM2,700 per tonne for 2014, Neutral stance, and preference for selected planters.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA

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January 17, 2014

Key takeaways from luncheon discussion

Below, we highlight the key takeaways from our six expert speakers who represent the various stakeholders in the biodiesel and plantation industry. Dr. Dadan Kusdiana, Director of Bioenergy at the Directorate General of New & Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation, at the Ministry of ESDM. Dr. Dadan Kusdiana indicated that the biodiesel policy has been in place since 2008 and, as such, it is not a new policy for the market. However, what has changed is that the government is raising its targeted blend of biodiesel with diesel to 10% (from 7.5%) and expanding the coverage of the blend to include all regions of the country compared to only 70% last year. He said the government is committed to this policy. Biodiesel demand in Indonesia is projected to grow by 400% to 3.8m-4m kl in 2014 vs. around 1m kl of consumption in 2013. The biodiesel tender programme was an idea initiated by Pertamina to secure long term biodiesel supply to fulfill the mandate. Should the tender fall short of requirements, Pertamina will revert to the old process of buying biodiesel at spot prices, where the reference price will be based on HPE (Harga Patokan Eksport or the exports reference price) for biodiesel. A successful tender exercise will be positive as it will allow the government to keep to its fuel subsidy budget, which is based on MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore), a measure of fuel oil pricing in Singapore . He clarified that not all the biodiesel needs will be supplied through Pertamina's tender process, contrary to some expectations. The government is currently still adopting the previous pricing index, which is based on reference export price for biodiesel (HPE) set by Minister of Trade, and that involves buying biodiesel on the spot market to meet the 10% biodiesel blend. He guided that Indonesia achieved a 5% biodiesel blend in 2013 and is confident that the 4m kl biodiesel target is achievable as the country has sufficient biodiesel capacity (5m kl). He said the government is willing to work with industry players to overcome near-term challenges to ensure that the 10% blend is implemented. We are positive as Dr. Dadan has helped clarify that the low take-up rate from the first tender by Pertamina will not hamper the government's goal of meeting its target. This is because this is only one of the many avenues rather than the only means that Pertamina is adopting to source its biodiesel requirements. We view this positively as the market may have earlier jumped to the conclusion that the biodiesel tender is the only means of Pertamina securing its supply.
Figure 2: Indonesias new biodiesel mandates*
Sep-Dec 13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-20 Jan-25 Transportation (PSO) Transportation (Non-PSO) Industry Electricity
* Effective 29 August 2013

Figure 3: Indonesias previous biodiesel mandates*

Sector Transportation (PSO) Transportation (Non-PSO) Industry Electricity
* Effective 26 September 2008

Oct-Dec 08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Jan-25 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 3% 3% 5% 1% 5% 7% 10% 10% 10% 10% 15% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20%

10% 3% 5% 8%

10% 10% 10% 20%

10% 10% 10% 25%

20% 20% 20% 30%

20% 20% 10% 30%

25% 25% 25% 30%

PSO - Public Sector Obligation and refers to subsidised fuel

PSO - Public Sector Obligation and refers to subsidised fuel

SOURCES: CIMB, INDONESIA MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

SOURCES: CIMB, INDONESIA MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

Mr. Toto Nugroho, New & Renewable Energy Business Development Manager, PT. Pertamina (Persero). Pertamina (97% market share of Indonesia's retail petroleum sales), the state-owned oil company, has successfully raised its biodiesel usage, in line with the higher mandates. Mr. Toto Nugroho revealed that in Jan-Sep 2013, Pertamina's average consumption of biodiesel was 65,000 kl per month. Since
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the mandate was raised in Oct 13, usage has increase to 120,000-150,000kl per month. He said the company is supportive of this policy as it could potentially reduce Indonesia's imports of crude oil by US$1bn, and is confident that this programme can be implemented. On the tender issue, Pertamina has secured 18% of its 6.6m kl requirements from the first biodiesel tender and has called for a second tender. The results of the second tender will be officially disclosed on 21 Jan. We understand the results are likely to be significantly more than the 18% achieved in first tender which will be a boost to biodiesel demand. The second tender pricing is based on MOPs (flat) vs. the first tender which was based on MOPs minus. He also indicated that the company is open to the possibility of improving the pricing to include logistics costs for biodiesel supply to the eastern part of Indonesia due to the challenges of higher transportation costs. This means pricing for biodiesel supply to these areas could be MOPS plus. He also clarified that the first biodiesel tender is to meet biodiesel needs for 2014-15, while the second tender is mainly to cater to supply needs for 2014 only. If it is not able to obtain sufficient supply based on the MOPS-based pricing scheme tender, Pertamina will revert back to the previous HPE pricing scheme and secure the requirements through the spot market. In terms of the breakdown of the 3.3m kl tender, we gather that the transport (PSO or subsidised fuel) market accounts for 1.7m kl of the planned usage. The key takeaway for us is that Pertamina is willing to look at other pricing methodologies to secure biodiesel supply for the mandates and is not giving up due to the poor take-up from the first tender.
Figure 4: Indonesia's diesel consumption in various sectors (m kilolitres) - 2011
Sectors Transportation (ADO) Power plant (HSD) Industrial sector (ADO) Commercial sector (ADO) Total * ADO - Automotive Diesel Oil, HSD - High Speed Diesel
SOURCES: CIMB, INDONESIA MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

2011 16.0 8.9 5.6 0.8 31.4

Biodiesel Potential mandate (new) biodiesel usage 10% 1.6 20% 10% 10% 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.0

Mr. Moch. Sofyan, Head of New & Renewable Energy Division, PT. PLN (Persero) PLN (85% share of total electricity generation in Indonesia), the state-owned electricity company, has been preparing to blend biodiesel into High Speed Diesel (HSD) since the government announced the higher biodiesel mandate. We gather from Mr. Moch. Sofyan that PLN is looking at three options to blend biodiesel, RBD olein or CPO with its diesel fuel to be consumed in the power plants. Below are the key takeaways of the three options: (1) Pertamina to help secure and supply biodiesel. He indicated that PLN is ready to raise the biodiesel blend in its power plants to 20% as long as Pertamina is ready to secure and transport diesel to the power plants, and we gather that Pertamina is now ready to do so. (2) Mixing palm olein with diesel fuel. The company is looking at an alternative option of mixing palm olein with diesel fuel, though this may require some modification at its power plants. This will reduce its dependence on Pertamina to supply biodiesel to the plants and it is targeting to achieve a 6% blend for this.

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January 17, 2014

(3) Building power plant which uses CPO as feedstock. It is also exploring the possibility of building power plants that use CPO as feedstock. PLN is currently achieving a biodiesel blend of 12% and plans to raise this to the 20% target. We are pleasantly surprised by the readiness of PLN, which has been a dark horse for us, in embracing the higher biodiesel blend set by the government. Mr. Aslam Kalyubi, Director of Biofuel Producers Association (APROBI) The Indonesia Biofuel Producers Association has 23 members but only 12 members are currently active in providing supply to Pertamina. The industry has been going through volatile times. 2013 was a good year for the Indonesian biodiesel producers. Total installed biodiesel capacity in Indonesia is more than 5m kl per annum. Mr. Aslam Kalyubi estimate that in 2013, domestic biodiesel usage was 600,000 kl. He indicated that the biodiesel producers are ready to provide the supply required to fulfill the higher biodiesel mandate. However, he believes that the policy has not been progressing smoothly due to the issue of pricing as Pertamina's tender pricing was based on MOPS instead of the export reference price of biodiesel from Indonesia. If Indonesia successfully executes the 10% biodiesel blend, he estimates that this will boost the country's biodiesel demand to 3.5m kl and if a 20% blend is adopted, the biodiesel usage in the country will grow to 7.6m kl by 2016. Hence, more investments will be made in the industry. He said the association hopes the government will take the lead in the biodiesel programme and that the biodiesel producers are ready to support the government s initiatives as long as the pricing for biodiesel is viable. Apart from pricing, he indicated that logistics is the other challenge as most of the biodiesel plants are located in Sumatra and Java which makes it very expensive to transport biodiesel to the Papua and Kalimantan regions.
Figure 5: Installed production capacity of biodiesel in Indonesia (m kl)
6.0

5.0
4.0 3.0 2.0

1.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SOURCES: CIMB, INDONESIA MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

Mr. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Mr. Fadhil Hasan is fully supportive of the biodiesel policy as it will be positive for CPO price prospects and benefit all the palm oil producers. However, he acknowledged that the pricing issues for biodiesel need to be addressed. As such, he hopes the government and stakeholders will come together to work out a pricing policy that will be positive for all key stakeholders.

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January 17, 2014

From the planters perspective, they are ready to supply the feedstock for the biodiesel industry and are very keen on this as it will provide a new outlet for their palm products. He predicts CPO price (Rotterdam cif) could trade higher at US$900-960 in 2014 against US$857 per tonne in 2013. On the issue of supply, he estimates that Indonesia produced 27m tonnes of palm oil in 2013, which is lower than earlier estimates of 27.5m tonnes due to weather issues. However, palm oil exports from Indonesia have improved from 17m tonnes in 2012 to 19m tonnes in 2013 due to the lower pricing of CPO at the start of 2013. He estimates palm oil supply rising to 28.5m-29m tonnes in 2014. He predicts a slowdown in the palm oil supply growth from Indonesia as expansion has slowed due to new regulations in the industry. This is supported by the drop in sale of seeds from 160m in 2012 to 100m seeds in 2013. His CPO price forecast is broadly in line with our average price assumption of US$930 per tonne (RM2,700) for 2014 and we concur with his assessment that expansion in Indonesia has slowed, and this will reduce future CPO supply growth from Indonesia. Mr. Johan Unggul, Chairman of Indonesian Fertilizer Trade Association (ANPI) Mr. Johan Unggul said that, as an observer, he was optimistic that the biodiesel programme will proceed but thinks that the progress of implementation may be slower than expected. He believes the bioodiesel policy is needed by all stakeholders to offset the rising CPO supply. He thinks three years is an achievable target to meet the 10% blend but worries about the ability of the industry to raise the usage to a 20% blend. He said 2013 was a bad year for fertiliser suppliers in Indonesia due to the high inventory level and overcapacity. This pushed down fertiliser prices, which is positive for planters. He expects most fertiliser prices, except for Potash, to improve slightly in 2014.

Key takeaways from company meetings

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.IJ Add) We gather the companys key focus for 2014 are to: 1) continue its downstream expansion, 2) pursue diversification opportunities, and 3) continue to manage its costs of production. Its CPO refinery in Sulawesi has started operations in Jan 14. The company is also planning to add more milling capacities in 2014. It also expressed interest to JV with other parties to further expand its downstream business. It recently diversified into rubber business and indicated that future rubber supply will be sold to its sister company Astra Otopart, which manufactures Pirelli tyres. The company plans to plant 2,000 ha of rubber this year, on top of its existing planted rubber area of 500ha as of 2013. It plans to further expand mechanisation to manage costs. We maintain our Add call with a target price of Rp28,000. Austindo Nusantara Jaya (Not rated) Owned by the Tahija family, Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJ) has four business segments: palm oil, tobacco, sago and renewable energy. The company targets new planting rate is 6.5k ha for 2014. It projects 3.8k ha of new mature area (12% of total mature area) will come on stream in 2014 to support the future growth. The company also expects its new business, sago, to support future growth but does not expect long term revenue contribution from this segment to exceed 30% of total revenue. ANJ has harvesting licenses for 40k ha of sago
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forests in West Papua and is targeting to start producing sago in 2H2014. ANJ guided capex of US$70m-80m backed by a loan facility of US$50m. The group has a strong balance sheet and decent dividend payout policy of not more than 50%. The key concern is its low free float of 10%. Bumitama Agri (BAL SP, Not Rated) Bumitama Agri is keeping to its guidance for FFB output growth to be 17% in 2013. For 2014, the group will be putting more focus on improving its sustainability practices and this could mean lower new planting targets in 2014. The group is currently focusing on planting up its land bank of 55,000 ha over the next few years, and hence does not expect the new regulations which limit palm oil land ownership to 100,000 ha to affect its near term growth plan. We like the group's young average age profile of 5.4 years and expect the large expansion achieved in the past few years to propel its future output growth. BW Plantation (BWPT IJ, Hold) The company is shifting its focus to managing its balance sheet capabilities following years of aggressive new planting activities. This has caused the group's gearing to reach 2x as of 9M13. It plans to refinance some of the loan in the near term. As for new planting, it plans to plant 3,000 ha per annum in 2014-2016. It plans to spend Rp700bn on capex this year, of which Rp500bn-550bn will be allocated for planting purposes, while the other Rp150bn will be used to build a palm oil mill with 60t/hr capacity (expected to fully operate in 1Q14). It is optimistic that production will recover in 2H14. We keep our Hold call with a target price of Rp1,320. First Resources (FR SP, Add) The key points from our meetings are: (1) maintain cost of production guidance of US$260-280 per tonne for 2013 and project 2014 costs of production to be flattish yoy; (2) projects CPO price to remain range-bound; (3) target lower capex spend of US$100-160m in 2014; (4) project FFB output growth of 10% in 2014; (5) was not successful in the first biodiesel tender in Indonesia; (6) new planting target is around 15-20k per ha; and (7) plans to plant 2,000 ha of rubber in 2014. FR remains one of our top picks among the regional planters due to its superior operating efficiency and strong output growth prospects. We maintain our Add rating and target price of S$2.75 (based on 12.3x forward P/E) Golden Agri (GGR SP, Hold) Golden Agri expects 4Q production to improve qoq and provide output growth guidance of 5-10% for 2014. It is also keeping to its 2013 costs guidance at US$340-350 per tonne and indicated that costs are likely to be flat to higher in 2014 as the higher minimum wage is partially offset by the weak Rp against US$. The group is optimistic that its downstream business in China will perform better in 2014. We maintain our Hold rating as we feel that the stock is fairly valued at the current level. Also intact is our target price of S$0.60 (based on 14x P/E) London Sumatra (LSIP IJ, Add) The key takeaways from the meetings with LSIP are: 1) the company expects to achieve a high single digit growth FFB output for 2014; 2) the average age of its estates is 12.3 yrs, 3) it targets to plant 5k ha of palm oil area per annum and has an unplanted land bank of 25k ha; 4) its target capex spend for 2014 is Rp1trn, 5) it projects more manageable cost increases for 2014, with labour cost rising at 10-15% but fertiliser costs remaining fairly stable; and 6) it experienced lower seeds sales volumes in 2013. We reiterate our Add call with a
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target price of Rp2,180, based on 12.8x CY15 P/E, a 25% discount to industry leader. Sampoerna Agro (SGRO IJ, Reduce) The main takeaways are: (1) it is targeting 20% FFB output growth for 2013; (2) projects cost to rise due to higher minimum wage and fertiliser usage as 7,000 ha of new mature areas will come on stream in 2014.; (3) its new planting rate target are 5,000 ha of palm oil, 2,000 ha of rubber and 1,000 ha of sago; (4) its current plantable reserves is around 56k ha; and (5) its target capex spend for 2014 is around Rp1tr.We maintain our Reduce call with target price of Rp1,160 as SGROs premium P/E implies that its earnings recovery prospects have been more than priced in.

Figure 6: Sector comparisons

Company Sime Darby Bhd IOI Corporation Kuala Lumpur Kepong Felda Global Ventures Genting Plantations Hap Seng Plantations Jaya Tiasa Holdings Ta Ann Malaysia average Wilmar International Golden Agri-Resources First Resources Ltd Indofood Agri Resources Mewah International Singapore average Astra Agro Lestari Salim Invomas Pratama London Sumatra Sampoerna Agro BW Plantation Indonesia average Average (all) Bloomberg Ticker SIME MK IOI MK KLK MK FGV MK GENP MK HAPL MK JT MK TAH MK WIL SP GGR SP FR SP IFAR SP MII SP AALI IJ SIMP IJ LSIP IJ SGRO IJ BWPT IJ Recom. Hold Reduce Reduce Hold Hold Hold Hold Add Add Hold Add Reduce Reduce Hold Hold Add Reduce Hold Price Target Price (local curr) 9.12 4.14 23.66 4.35 10.72 2.65 2.30 4.16 3.25 0.52 2.01 0.82 0.47 20,950 670 1,540 1,855 1,215 (local curr) 10.13 4.11 21.72 4.73 11.10 2.85 2.38 5.26 4.12 0.60 2.75 0.81 0.46 27,200 845 2,180 1,160 1,320 Market Cap (US$ m) 16,620 8,022 7,641 4,812 2,467 642.9 675.1 467.4 16,331 5,242 2,500 912.6 556.2 2,721 874.0 866.6 289.2 448.0 Core P/E (x) CY2013 CY2014 17.1 16.3 16.9 18.8 26.8 22.0 42.3 21.2 30.3 21.5 22.3 13.5 33.7 13.7 28.9 13.5 27.3 17.6 12.8 11.5 20.3 14.0 12.7 10.8 28.3 14.5 25.0 20.0 19.8 14.2 22.1 13.6 35.2 14.5 18.8 9.1 35.3 19.6 31.4 12.7 28.6 13.9 27.6 15.6 3-year EPS CAGR (%) -6.4% -11.7% 6.4% -0.9% 6.3% 4.3% 37.2% 31.7% 8.4% 9.0% 1.8% 10.5% -16.3% 13.4% 3.7% -2.9% -22.0% -2.6% -25.9% 22.6% -6.2% 4.2% P/BV (x) CY2013 CY2014 1.95 1.82 2.58 3.64 3.32 3.16 2.48 2.34 2.26 2.09 1.09 1.05 1.27 1.17 1.55 1.42 2.06 2.09 1.06 0.99 0.60 0.58 2.01 1.78 0.80 0.75 0.96 0.92 1.09 1.01 3.70 3.17 0.77 0.75 1.62 1.41 1.30 1.23 2.82 2.56 2.04 1.82 1.77 1.63 Dividend Yield (%) CY2013 3.2% 3.3% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 2.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.6% 1.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 3.6% 1.1% 4.2% 2.0% 1.1% 2.4% 1.8%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

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(i) As of January 16, 2014, CIMB has a proprietary position in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report: (a) Felda Global Ventures, First Resources, Golden Agri-Resources, Indofood Agri Resources, IOI Corporation, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Sime Darby Bhd, Wilmar International (ii) As of January 17, 2014, the analyst(s) who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report: (a) The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. CIMB may or may not issue regular reports on the subject matter of this report at any frequency and may cease to do so or change the periodicity of reports at any time. CIMB is under no obligation to update this report in the event of a material change to the information contained in this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB or any of its affiliates does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this report. Neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB and its affiliates clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this research report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. Australia: Despite anything in this report to the contrary, this research is provided in Australia by CIMB Securities (Australia) Limite d (CSAL) (ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS Licence number 240 530). CSAL is a Market Participant of ASX Ltd, a Clearing Participant of ASX Clear Pty Ltd, a Settlement Participant of ASX Settlement Pty Ltd, and, a participant of Chi X Australia Pty Ltd. This research is only available in Australia to persons who are wholesale clients (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and is supplied solely for the use of such wholesale clients and shall not be distributed or passed on to any other person. This research has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of the individual recipient. France: Only qualified investors within the meaning of French law shall have access to this report. This report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial instrument. Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CIMB Securities Limited (CHK) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type
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1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CIMB Securities Limited. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CHK. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CHK. Unless permitted to do so by the securities laws of Hong Kong, no person may issue or have in its possession for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the securities covered in this report, which is directed at, or the contents of which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the securities laws of Hong Kong). India: This report is issued and distributed in India by CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited (CIMB India) which is registered with SEBI as a stock-broker under the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Stock Brokers and Sub-Brokers) Regulations, 1992 and in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 4 (g) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Investment Advisers) Regulations, 2013, CIMB India is not required to seek registration with SEBI as an Investment Adviser. The research analysts, strategists or economists principally responsible for the preparation of this research report are segregated from the other activities of CIMB India and they have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality, accuracy and value of research, firm profitability or revenues, client feedback and competitive factors. Research analysts', strategists' or economists' compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital markets transactions performed or proposed to be performed by CIMB India or its affiliates. Indonesia: This report is issued and distributed by PT CIMB Securities Indonesia (CIMBI). The views and opinions in this research repo rt are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBI. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens wherever they are domiciled or to Indonesia residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations. Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (CIMB). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB. New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978. Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Research Pte Ltd (CIMBR). Recipients of this report are to contact CIMBR in Singapore in respec t of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CIMBR accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR.. As of January 16, 2014, CIMBR does not have a proprietary position in the recommended securities in this report. South Korea: This report is issued and distributed in South Korea by CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch ("CIMB Korea") which is licensed as a cash equity broker, and regulated by the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change, and this report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial investment instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial investment instrument. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only, and no part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB Korea. Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell to any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden. Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. The securities as referred to in this research report have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China pursuant to relevant securities laws and regulations and may not be offered or sold within the Republic of China through a public offering or in circumstances which constitutes an offer or a placement within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Law of the Republic of China that requires a registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China. Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS. Corporate Governance Report: The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CIMBS does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Score Range: 90 100 80 89 70 79 Below 70 or No Survey Result Description: Excellent Very Good Good N/A United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates. United Kingdom and Europe: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited (CIMB UK). CIMB UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge, London, SW1X 7YB. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely
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directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are persons that are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the Order); (c) are persons falling within Article 49 (2) (a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Order; (d) ar e outside the United Kingdom; or (e) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which this report relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). This report is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Only where this report is labelled as non-independent, it does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of the subject matter and does not constitute independent "investment research" under the applicable rules of the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Consequently, any such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S.-registered broker-dealer and a related company of CIMB Research Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited, CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited, and is distributed solely to persons who qualify as "U.S. Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CIMB Securities (USA) Inc. Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 December 2013 1297 companies under coverage for quarter ended on 31 December 2013 Rating Distribution (%) Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy/Add Neutral/Hold Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell/Reduce 50.4% 33.3% 16.3% Investment Banking clients (%) 6.9% 6.5% 4.9%

As at the time of publishing this report CIMB is phasing in an absolute recommendation structure for stocks (Framework #1). Please refer to all frameworks for a definition of any recommendations stated in this report.

CIMB Recommendation Framework #1

Stock Ratings Add Hold Reduce

Definition The stocks total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months. The stocks total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months. The stocks total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.

The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months. Sector Ratings Overweight Neutral Underweight Country Ratings Overweight Neutral Underweight Outperform Neutral Underperform Trading Buy Trading Sell Definition An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation. A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation. An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation. Definition An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark. A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark. An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark. The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant benchmark's total return. The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return by 3% or more over the next 3 months. The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 3% or more over the next 3 months.

CIMB Stock Recommendation Framework #2 *

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons. CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

CIMB Stock Recommendation Framework #3 **

Outperform Neutral Underperform Trading Buy Trading Sell

Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2012. AAV not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AEONTS Good, AMATA - Very Good, ANAN not available, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCH not available, BCP - Excellent, BEC - Very Good, BGH - not available, BJC Very Good, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET Good, CENTEL Very Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, EGCO Excellent, ERW Excellent, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH Very Good, ITD Very Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS Very Good, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO Very Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, RS Excellent, SAMART Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Very Good, SRICHA not available, SSI not available, STA - Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Excellent, THCOM Very Good, TICON Very Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TTW Very Good, TUF - Very Good, VGI not available, WORK Good.

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