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Analisi Racing –Learning Serious

Magic Sheet Explanation

kind, presents a holistic hair splitting study of thorou ghbred racing in India. One

“Magic Sheet” will provide all runn er’s Winning, Placing and even Upset probability. Thi s will empower you in well informed decision making. This tim e tested formula will make your Horse racing hobby a nd pleasant experience.

First time in India, Analisi, one of a

Read on to understand various fact ors in “Magic Sheet”.
.
JF (Jockey Factor): Higher the bette r
Top and inform Jockeys wins most of the races. But when there are many top jockeys
in a race how do we know
who have better chance? Well if w e closely study the past runs & wins of Jockeys, trai ners and owners in certain
combinations we can find a certain patterns. Here is an effort to bring these patterns to numeric rating to compare
them fairly.
CF (Class Factor): Higher the better
Majority of the races run in India
themselves in a class where it can
mark as far as class is concerned.
are handicap races. Leaving out few very good hors es, most of the horses find
perform well. This factor keeps a tab on who is co ming down to the winning
TF (Track Factor): Higher the bette r
A trainer prepares the horses to
win/place the targeted race by different methods
and one of them is giving
practice in the morning. A glimpse
give us the clue. Track works is also
into particular trainers past winners and their prio r track preparation should
indication towards the fitness of the horses. Since I
track at every race course a genera lized method used interpret the comments given by
won’t be able to watch the
he various track reporters.
So this factor tells us how a particul ar horse fares at this count.
PF (Pedigree Factor): Higher the be tter
It is all in blood, whether a horse ru ns first time or tenth time the blood line is very impo rtant. By observing we can
find very clear pattern on how and when they mature.
OF (Odds Factor): Higher the bette r
Odds are the single most importan t factor in racing. This is cumulative sum of intentio ns of the connections and
recommendation of the various ha ndicapping experts. Studies show that it is better to f ollow the horses in betting.
Since this rating is prepared much
with other factors.
before the actual odds available one should treat w ith care and in conjunction
FF (Form Factor): Higher the better
Horses inform perform to best of
its ability, certain Artificial Intelligence techniques
used to figure out who is
already in inform, getting into form and who is losing form.
DF (Distance Factor): Higher the be tter
You must have heard about the ter m called pet distance. Well this is a statistical approa ch to find the pet distance
of a horse.
OJF (On Job Factor): Higher the bet ter
There are many situations where y ou will find a superior horse in a field, ridden by an
inform Jockey, right Odds,
etc
Still we are not sure wheth er the connections are interested or not. This fa ctor should give you clear
indication of the same and I believ e most important factor to be considered. This is bas ed on “Prisoners Dilemma”

logic.

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Analisi Racing –Learning Serious

NF (Negative Factor): Lower the be tter There are certain things which ar e very common in losers, who were in betting. W

irrespective of if they are in betting or not one should avoid them. Why to challenge the history?

ell my suggestion is that

Pick7: Higher the better Well I looked at the most common

characteristic of the winners for about 10,000+ race s and I found there are 21
of them. Like they would have bee n ridden by a inform Jockey, they would have placed i n the immediate last race,
would have been in betting in imm ediate last race, would have come into certain Patt en, etc
runners who fail to get even 7 out o f these 21.
One should avoid
JCF (Jockey Current Form): Higher
the better
Considering total life time & imme diate past 30 Mounts, Wins and Place a certain wei ghtage is applied to create
Jockey’s Current Form. This rating
gets updated once in every week and a close watc h will let you know which
Jockey is getting into form and wh o is losing his Midas touch. Whatever the compellin g reasons try to avoid any
jockey with less than 1 JCF. Isn’t go od to join someone who is blessed with good luck a t this moment to script our
own success story?
Num (Numeric): Lower the better
Well, all race goers are most care d about one thing that is “what is the final positi on of their Choice” in any
particular race. Liner Regression m ethod (Artificial Intelligence) is applied here to figure about the same. Whatever
the compelling reasons one should try to avoid any horses with more than Num value 6.
CSR (Captain’s Speed Rating): High er the better
Bayer Speed is considered as one
Based on the same principle this is
for a particular class and distance,
of the best way to evaluate the comparative ability o f all the runners in a field.
an indigenized version for Indian races. Rating 100
is assumed to be required
and anything near to that figure is considered as goo d. No rating is mentioned if
horse is running first time or not ra ced in last six months.
IR (IR Rating): Higher the better
Putting it all together, with help o f Artificial Intelligence certain weightage is assigned
all the factors mentioned
above and some other factors and
all horses are rated. Anything above 130 is good.
POS (IR Position): Lower the better
Based on IR Rating expected positi on is assigned to all horses. It is a mid-stage predicat ion in Analisi Handicapping
method. It is profitable to stick to t op 3 positions.
Win% (Win Probability): Higher th e better
To win a race, horse need not to be a good horse, just better than other competitors. He re is an effort to assign the
Winning Probability to all the runn ers. The other dilemma all investors face is that how much to invest, higher the
win probability higher the investm ent. This adds up to 100% and most important field i n the “Magic Sheet” and all
horses sort based on this.
Place% (Place Probability): Higher the better
Protecting the capital is the mos t important thing in any form of investment. I a m of the opinion that all
investment in racing must be Plac e. This is similar to Win Probability however there
depend up on the number of runne rs.
it adds up 200% or 300%

Upset% (Upset Probability): Highe r the better Somehow most race goers like lon g odds winners, here is an interesting points for you offered odds are more than 8/1.

to refer, consider them if

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Analisi Racing –Learning Serious

Selection Process

General Guidelines

1. Avoid horses with less tha n 40% win probability.

2. Constrain your selections t o top 3 IR Positions.
3. Invest only in horses in bet ting, avoid horses with too much fluxuating odds at t he race time.
4. Avoid any horses with IR R ating is less than 130 points.
5. Observe and master yours elf in identifying picture perfect horse in the paddock .
Money Management
1. Look for opportunities wh ere place return is 70% to 200%
2. Never invest more than 10 % of your bankroll.
3. Observe and master yours elf in identifying smart money flow in the ring.
4. Have medium to long term
target (like monthly rather than daily)
5. Wait for opportunities to c ome to you.
In case you are curious about how
all these works you may view the ppt on Analisi.

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