Who Participates in Democratic Revolutions? A Comparison of
the Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions Mark Beissinger, Amaney Jamal, and Kevin Mazur Princeton University
Prepared for Presentation at the American Political Science Association Meetings: August 29 th -September 2 nd , New Orleans.
2 Abstract: This paper uses highly unusual, individual-level data on protest participation in the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions to evaluate the leading causal theories behind the Arab Spring (and democratic revolutions, more generally) by connecting a representative sample of the population involved in protest activism with the conditions impelling their participation. It does so by evaluating a series of hypotheses about who should be expected to participate in these revolutions if specific theoretical explanations hold true. After establishing the patterns of who participated, we compare them with those of another democratic revolution outside the region the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. The paper also investigates who among the participants in these revolutions prioritized civil and political rights over other ends (i.e., constituted the democratic vanguard within these revolutions). We find that explanations emphasizing value change, secularization, and absolute material deprivation are wanting. Protesters in both Egypt and Tunisia were predominantly males of middle class occupational and income profiles, and at least as religious as other members of their societies. The evidence also shows that most participants were motivated primarily by economic demands (and to a lesser extent, corruption), not by desires for civil and political freedoms. Those most likely to champion democratic values within these revolutions were not youth, the educated, or the middle class, but those involved in civil society associations. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for our understanding of democratization and democratic revolution and for the challenges posed by the nature of democratic revolutionary coalitions for post-revolutionary governments.
3 The revolutions of the Arab Spring witnessed massive political upheavals, as citizens across a number of Arab countries rushed to the streets in protest against their respective regimes. In a matter of weeks two longstanding authoritarian regimesthe Ben-Ali dictatorship in Tunisia and the Mubarak dictatorship in Egyptfell, while leaders in other Arab countries braced for the worst. As the Arab Spring unfolded across the region, both spectators and participants labeled these protest movements as democratizing revolutions that were sweeping the Arab world. Indeed, free-and-fair elections were held in the aftermath of protests in both Egypt and Tunisia. To many, it appeared that democratic change had finally reached the Arab world. Yet these transformations leave us with many more questions than answers. For one thing, other than impressionistic accounts from journalists or eyewitnesses, we know little about the individuals who filled Tahrir and November 7 Squares 1 and who acted to bring about regime change, or about the individual grievances and preferences that motivated them to mobilize in the face of likely repression. If these revolutions are rightly understood as democratic revolutions, 2 what were the attitudes of the protestors toward democratic freedoms and liberties? Were those who participated primarily motivated by a desire for democracy, or by other matters, such as economic concerns? Or were they primarily motivated by Islamist beliefs? After all, in both Egypt and Tunisia Islamist partiesthe Muslim Brotherhood and Ennahdaultimately won the first free-and-fair elections held in the wake of these revolutions. Thus, this paper asks the following questions: who participated in the Arab revolution protests and why? How were
1 The latter square, in central Tunis, was at the time of the revolution named for the date of Ben Alis takeover in 1987. It has since been renamed Mohamed Bouazizi Square. 2 We define a democratic revolution as a popular uprising that overthrows a dictatorship and brings about some degree of democratizing change (at a minimum, free-and-fair electoral competition and a broadening of civil and political freedoms) in its wake. See Thompson, 2004. 4 they similar or different from the societies from which they hailed? What does this tell us about the political processes underlying democratic revolutions more generally? Several schools of thought directly point to the important role that individuals play in demanding democracy, and theories of democratization and revolution provide us with a basic roadmap of expectations for predicting which individuals would likely participate in a democratic revolution. However, rarely do we have available to us systematic information in order to be able to evaluate those expectations. As we know, revolutions typically occur suddenly, taking both observers and participants by surprise (Kuran, 1995). Therefore, it is highly unusual to have a detailed cross-sectional record of the attitudes and backgrounds those who participated in a revolution, or to be able to compare them with other members of society. 3
In this paper we are able to do precisely that for two revolutions. Using an original dataset from the Second Wave Arab Barometer, which includes surveys administered in Tunisia and Egypt after the Arab Revolutions, we examine the extent to which the backgrounds, attitudes, and behaviors of those who participated in the protest movements in Egypt and Tunisia map onto theoretical expectations. The paper proceeds as follows. First, we offer a literature review on the relevant theories linked to participation in the protest activities that often accompany and foster democratic change, generating a number of hypotheses about who participates in democratic revolutions for empirical testing. Where relevant, we link these arguments with the various folk explanations that have arisen concerning the Arab Spring. Second, using unique survey data, we examine the extent to which protesters in Tunisia and Egypt mirror these hypothesized agents of democratic revolution within existing theoretical and folk accounts. Third, we provide some brief
3 For a discussion of why survey research has been difficult to mount in the context of protest waves, see Tarrow, 1991. For some of the few studies of revolution that utilize surveys of participants, see Lohmann, 1994; Opp, Voss, and Gern, 1995; Beissinger, 2011. 5 comparisons of who participated in these revolutions with analogous data on protestors in another democratic revolution outside the regionthe 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Fourth, we take our analysis of the Arab Spring revolutions to the next level by examining who, among those who protested, specifically prioritized democratic demands as opposed to other issues. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for our understanding of democratic revolution and post-revolutionary political processes. The paper demonstrates a number of important findings. First, we show that economic grievances (and to a lesser extent, grievances over corruption) dominated the concerns of participants in both revolutions, while civil and political freedoms ranked low among priorities for the vast majority of participants. Thus, for most participating in democratic revolutions, democratic revolutions are not necessarily about achieving democratic values, but about other issues. This finding is consistent with Rustows (1970) well-known observation that democracy is not the deterministic result of certain structural configurations or cultural proclivities but the fortuitous by-product of a struggle between societal actors. Second, we show that the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions were composed disproportionately of middle-class males, with professionals, government employees, private sector employees, and managers comprising a significant portion of the participants. Third, we show that the constituencies that mobilized in these two revolutions differed from one another in important respects. The Egyptian revolution was very much of a revolution of the middle-aged, the middle class, professionals, and the religious, whereas the Tunisian revolution was younger, more secular, and more diverse in its social composition, with workers, students, and the unemployed also participating in significant numbers (in this sense, representing more of a nation-wide, cross-class coalition). Even so, we show that the Tunisian revolution was not as representative of various classes as the Orange 6 Revolution in Ukraine, as it was not based on the kind of sharp regional and identity cleavages that characteristic of the Ukrainian case. Thus, democratizing revolutions have a variety of coalitional patterns that are not summed up by any single theory. Third, we find that among those who participated in these revolutions, participation in civil society associations is the factor most closely associated with whether participants prioritized democratic values or saw the revolution as primarily motivated by other factors. Thus, the nuts and bolts of democratization such as civil society are critical in underpinning the democratic direction of democratic revolutions.
Participation in Democratic Revolution: Theories and Hypotheses The literatures on democratization and revolutions provide us with a basic roadmap of expectations about which citizens should be playing significant roles in bringing about democratic revolutions and why. Indeed, most bottom-up accounts of democratizationthose that argue that societies are important agents for democratizing changecontain explicit or implicit arguments about the types of citizens who act as agents of democratization. For example, a large number of the classic works in the fieldfrom Almond and Verba (1963) to Diamond, Linz and Lipset (1989); from Inglehart (1990) to Huntington (1991) and Putnam (1993)linked democratization to underlying shifts in societal values and orientations associated with modernization that pre-condition democratic change. These authors argued that as societies become more educated and more urban, worldviews become more cosmopolitan, more universal, and more favorable to democracy. By implication, one should expect that those who take to the streets in order to champion democratic change would be those who are most supportive of (and who are primarily motivated by) democratic values (See, for instance, Dahl 1971: 132-160). 7 Some of these theories also posit that particular categories of citizens should be at the forefront of democratizing mobilizations, given the nature of the value-change process. Lipset (1959), for example, places particular emphasis on education as a key determinant of democratic values, leading one to believe that the more highly educated citizens should disproportionately participate in democratic revolution. In other modernization formulations, there is the built-in assumption that societies undergoing modernization will witness cohort shifts where newer generations will hold more modern, egalitarian, and democratic worldviews (Inglehart, 1990), so that youth in particular should be expected to be at the forefront of revolutionary democratic change. Indeed, several journalists, scholars, and policy makers covering the events of the Arab Spring linked the events to a youth population that was more oriented towards a set of universal democratic values. 4 These "folk" beliefs about the Aiab Spiing emphasizeu two intei-ielateu points: fiist, it has been wiuely thought that these ievolutions weie laigely championeu by the youth of iegion; anu seconu, these youth weie thought to have been in opposition to Islamistieligious politics anu to have embiaceu seculai, uemociatic values. Civil society accounts of democratization and democratic revolution have emphasized the important roles that civic associations play in democratic regime-change. This scholarship examines the role of civic associations instilling key democratic values, orientations, and commitments, as schools for civic virtues and generators of social capital, and as counterweights to existing authoritarian rulers (Putnam, 1993). In this perspective, associational life not only can check the powers of the state; it also encourages citizen participation, provides the critical
4 For example, David Gardner (2011), writing in the Financial Times, argued that There is a lot to celebrate that among the young [population] in an awakening Arab world there are, against all odds, democrats to democratize with. Similarly, John Esposito (2011), writing for CNN, stated that Having witnessed the failures of Islamist authoritarian regimes in Sudan, Iran, the Talibans Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia and the terror of the Bin Ladens of the world, they [the youth] are not interested in theocracy but democracy with its greater equality, pluralism, freedoms and opportunities. See also Rami Khoury, quoted in Agence France Presse, 2011. For a similar view with respect to the colored revolutions, see Karatnycky, 2005. 8 networks necessary for mobilizing individuals, and helps the development of a democratic culture of tolerance and bargaining (Diamond and Plattner, 1989). In the Egyptian context, Hamalawy (2011) notes that activism around the Second Palestinian Intifada in 2000 and the Iraq war in 2003 created links among activists and a space for criticism of the regime that would facilitate the 2011 protests. Several accounts of the Arab revolutions hold that labor unions and mosques played critical roles in mobilizing people into the streets (Beinin, 2011). Thus, one might expect that those most likely to participate in democratic revolutions and most likely to champion democratic values within those revolutions would be individuals who are involved in civic associations and who have high levels of social capital. 5 Yet, civil society associations in authoritarian settings have been known in some instances to reflect the orientations of the regime (Jamal, 2007). There is also some question of the role played by face-to-face association (i.e., strong ties) in promoting democracyparticularly at a moment in history when the weak ties of the internet have come to play such a critical role in mobilizational politics. Another set of accounts of democratic change focuses on the role of religion in society. The secularization thesis argues that, as modernization proceeds, people become less religious and more secular, and more supportive of toleration and political and civil rights (Inglehart and Norris, 2003). A related argument focuses specifically on Islam, arguing that Islam as a religion is incompatible with democracy for a number of reasons. Some maintain that Muslims are more likely to accept the status quo, no matter how injurious it is to them, because Islam commands political submission (Kedourie, 1992). Others, such as Huntington (1996), argue that Islam and democracy are inherently incompatible because Islam emphasizes the community over the individual and recognizes no division between church and state. Still others (Fukuyama, 1992) argue that Islam poses a grave threat to liberal democracy because its doctrinal emphasis lacks a
5 On the role of civil society in the colored revolutions, see Stepanenko, 2006; Bunce and Wolchik, 2011. 9 liberal democratic orientation. In a similar vein, Fish (2002) maintains that Islam hurts democracy, because Muslims lack the necessary tolerance towards women that is crucial for the foundations of a society based on equality. Thus, a number of theories would lead one to believe that Arab citizens who are more religious would be less likely to champion democracy or to participate in a democratic revolution. Other theories focus on specific class-based actors as the likely participants in democratizing revolutions. Both Moore (1966) and Huntington (1991), in different ways, highlighted the emergence of new economic forces in society through economic development (in particular, the emergence of autonomous bourgeoisie and middle-class sectors) as critical to the democratization process. In Huntingtons account, for instance, a broad and expanding middle class, consisting of businesspeople, professionals, shopkeepers, teachers, civil servants, managers, technicians, and clerical and sales workers, sees democracy as a means for securing their own interests; as he writes (1991, 67), In virtually every country the most active supporters of democratization came from the urban middle class. Others, by contrast, influenced by developments in Latin America and Southern Europe, highlight the mobilized actions undertaken by the working class, especially organized labor, in bringing about democratic reforms(Collier and Mahoney 1997; Rueschemeyer, Stephen, and Stephens 1992; Bermeo, 1997). Still others have argued that democratic revolutions rely heavily on cross-class coalitions that pull together variegated individuals largely on a national rather than class basis (see, for instance, Thompson, 2004; Slater, 2009; Goldstone, 2011). There has also long been a strain of thought within the study of revolution (dating from Aristotle) that has connected revolutions with objective inequalities, and indeed the recent literature on democratization has focused on the threat of revolution due to social inequality as a 10 driver of democratization (Boix 2003; Acemoglu and Robinson 2006). On the basis of these assumptions, one might expect that those participating in democratizing revolutions might be predominantly the relatively disadvantaged, prioritizing economic gains and redistribution over democratic values. By contrast, the collective action paradigm (and the resource mobilization school associated with it) would lead us to believe that those most likely to challenge a dictatorial government in high-risk collective action would be those who derive their income or resources independently of the government (i.e., those not employed in the public sector) (Olson, 1971; Tullock, 1971; McCarthy and Zald, 1977; Hardin, 1995; Lichbach, 1995). Thus, based on this review of the literature, we can stipulate the following hypotheses to be tested concerning who participated in the Arab Spring revolutions: HI: Those who participate in democratic revolutions should predominantly be those citizens who prioritize democratic values over other concerns. H2. More highly educated citizens should be expected to participate disproportionately in democratic revolutions and to champion democratic ends within those revolutions. H3: Youth should be more likely to participate in democratic revolutions than older generations and to support political and civil freedoms within those revolutions. Moreover, one should find a pattern of participation and support for democracy that gradually attenuates with age. H4: Members of civil society associations and those with high levels of social capital are more likely to participate in democratic revolutions and to champion democratic values within those revolutions. 11 H5: Individuals who are less religious should be more likely to participate in democratic revolutions and defend democratic values within those revolutions, particularly in predominantly Islamic societies. Those participating in and championing democratic values within democratic revolutions may or may not be predominantly from a certain class, as the literature is divided over whether class plays a significant role in democratization, and which class, if class any, plays the leading role. Therefore we advance four competing hypotheses: H6A: Those participating in and championing democratic values within democratic revolutions should be predominantly from the urban middle class. H6B: Those participating in and championing democratic values within democratic revolutions should be predominantly from the working class. H6C: Those participating in democratic revolutions should constitute a national, cross-class coalition. H6D: Those participating in democratizing revolutions should be predominantly the relatively disadvantaged, who prioritize economic gains and redistribution over democratic values. And finally, based on the collective action paradigm: H7: Those most likely to participate in a democratic revolution should be those not employed in the public sector.
Method and Sample The survey data utilized in this study come from the second round of the Arab Barometer study, a survey about political life, governance and political, social and cultural values 12 administered in eleven Arab countries. The survey was fielded in Egypt in July 2011 and in Tunisia in April 2011shortly after the revolutionary tide that swept across these countries. The Arab Barometer survey was not originally designed as a survey aimed at studying the Arab Spring revolutions. However, an additional battery of questions on the revolutions was added to the survey in this round that not only allow us to identify who participated in these revolutions, but also their attitudes toward and understanding of these revolutions. In Egypt, 1,220 people were surveyed, while in Tunisia 1,196 were surveyed. 6
In Egypt 8 percent of the sample reported participating in demonstrations surrounding the revolution, compared to 16 percent of those surveyed in Tunisia. The difference in rates of participation between Egypt and Tunisia may seem puzzling at first glance. However, as will be shown below, somewhat different segments of Egyptian and Tunisian societies participated in these revolutions. Differences in population size and dispersion also provide some basic intuitions about why one might expect divergent rates of participation in Egypt and Tunisia. Tunisia is a state of 10.7 million people, whereas Egypts population is 82.5 million (World Bank 2011). Scaling participation rates up to total population (an enterprise that needs to be interpreted with caution given our sample size in each case) would imply that over six million Egyptians participated in the Egyptian Revolution, while less than two million Tunisians turned out in the Tunisian Revolution. Thus, though the percentage of individuals protesting in Egypt looks smaller, the absolute number of people on the street in Egypt was likely quite a bit larger than was the case in Tunisia. In addition, the geographic pattern and timing of the revolutions could also account for divergent levels of turnout. The Tunisian protests began in a small
6 The Egyptian survey was administered by Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studiesled by Gamal Abdel Gawad. The survey was administered during the month of June (2011) and relied on area probability sampling approach. The survey in Tunisia was administered by Sigma Groupled by Youssef Meddeb. The survey was administered during the month of October (2011) and relied on an area probability sample. 13 provincial town, Sidi Bouzid, and slowly made their way to the capital over the course of several weeks. The Egyptian protests, by contrast, began in the countrys two major cities, Cairo and Alexandria, and had millions on the street within four days of the first protest. Because the Egyptian protests began rapidly in the place where all revolutionary movements aim to end up-- at the seat of power, they afforded less opportunity than the Tunisian protests for undecided individuals to throw in with the revolution.
Who Participated in the Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions
Protest participants in both Tunisia and Egypt tended to be overwhelmingly male, with above average levels of income and education, and from professional or clerical occupational backgrounds. The profiles of protesters in each country differed most strikingly by age. Though protesters were younger than the overall population mean in both countries, Tunisian youth comprised a larger portion of the demonstrators, with 60 percent of demonstrators under the age of 35, compared with 44 percent in Egypt (This age group comprised 43 percent of the total sample in both countries). Rather, in Egypt, the 35 to 44 year old group had the highest rate of participation, constituting 29 percent of the protesters, but only 22 percent of the total population. Table 1 gives an indication of the differing age compositions of protesters. Moreover, a multivariate regression of participation on age underscores this point; no age group is statistically different from the 35-44 year old group in Egypt, but the coefficient on the youngest Tunisian group is both substantively and statistically significant (see Table 2). [Tables 1 and 2 here] The participation of students provides further evidence on the age divergence between participants in the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. Thus, students comprised 19 percent of 14 Tunisian demonstrators but only 3 percent of Egyptian demonstrators. 7 This difference is not reducible to age, as Tunisian students participated at strikingly high rates. Within the 18 to 24 age group, which contains over 90 percent of the student population in both countries, 37 percent of Tunisian students participated, compared to 25 percent of non-students. Among Egyptians of the same age group, the figures were 8 percent among students and 8 percent among non- students. 8 The cross-tabulations alone give lie to folk theories that the Arab revolutions were caused primarily by youth frustration or had among them a single set of causal factors; whereas youth (and especially students) participated at high rates in Tunisia, a group nearing middle age formed the core of the Egyptian demonstrators. The age of Egyptian protesters implies that modernization theses emphasizing value change due to cohort effects (Hypothesis 3) seem not to be operating in Egypt. Explanations linking protest to absolute levels of material deprivation (Hypothesis 6D) are similarly unsupported by the data. Given the amount of scholarly and popular attention devoted to poor employment prospects as a cause of frustration and revolution in the Arab world, 9 one might expect unemployment to be a significant positive predictor of protest behavior. Yet unemployment is not a statistically significant predictor of participation, even in a bivariate logistic regression, for either country (See Table 3). Participation rates for the unemployed track those for the general population in Egypt, with 5 percent of the total sample
7 Clearly, the number of students in the sample is partially responsible for this differential; students comprised 3 percent of the Egyptian sample and 9 percent of the Tunisian sample. The importance of Tunisian students is underscored, however, by the differential turnout rates among students (8 percent in Egypt versus 35 percent in Tunisia). The wide divergence in proportion of students in the overall population seems to be an artifact of sampling procedures; the Egyptian and Tunisian statistical agency reports show that 4 percent of individuals over over 18 years old in both populations are students (CAPMAS 2008, World Bank 2010, National Institute of Statistics Tunisia 2010, authors calculations). 8 While the p value for a difference of means test between students and non-students in Tunisia is 0.053, it does not approach statistical significance for Egypt. It is possible that the low student turnout in Egypt is an artifact of the small sample size, as students constitute 3 percent of the Egyptian sample and 9 percent of the Tunisian sample. The fact that most Egyptian protesters were older, however, lends support to the notion that students did not form the critical mass of protesters there, however critical they may have been in engineering the early stages of protest. 9 See, for example, Al-Arabiyya 2011 and the UNDPs Arab Development Challenges Report 2012. 15 unemployed and 5 percent of demonstrators unemployed. The unemployed constituted a far larger share of the demonstrators in Tunisia, both in absolute terms and relative to their share of the general population; unemployed comprised 22 percent of the Tunisian demonstrators but 18 percent of the general population. 10 Unemployment is highly correlated with age in both countries, but the unemployed population in Egypt is on average younger than in Tunisia (Tunisians under 35 comprise 43 percent of the sample but 66 percent of the unemployed, while in Egypt this age category constitutes only 43 percent of the sample but 80 percent of the unemployed). Income profiles lend further credence to the notion that absolute deprivation was not a major factor. If frustration among the most disadvantaged segments of the population was the primary cause of participation in the revolutions, we would expect to see high levels of turnout among the lowest income segments. Yet as shown in Table 1, the poorest two income quintiles had the lowest rates of participation in both countries, and a bivariate regression of participation on income quintiles (Table 3) indicates that the likelihood of protest rises with increasing income. [Table 3 here] Educational profiles provide further evidence that the poorest were not the catalyst for the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, as protesters in both Tunisia and Egypt tended to be significantly more educated than non-protesters (See Table 1). Those with the highest level of education (at least some university) constituted 46 percent of Egyptian protesters, though only 19 percent of the total population. In Tunisia, this group comprised 28 percent of the demonstrators,
10 The wide gap in unemployment rates is surprising, yet reflects World Bank statistics. The World Bank reports 9 percent total unemployment for Egypt and 14 percent for Tunisia in 2008, the most recent available statistics. Youth (15-24) unemployment in Tunisia was 31 percent for males and 29 percent for females and 55 percent for females but only 21 percent for males (2005 for Tunisia, 2006 for Egypt, both most recent available). The relatively low unemployment numbers for Egypt likely reflect underemployment and movement out of the formal workforce into the informal sector (World Bank 2010). 16 but only 17 percent of the total population. The bivariate regression of participation on education is substantively and statistically significant in both cases (Table 3), and this relationship holds when subjected to multivariate controls. 11 While statistical tests on observational data cannot in themselves prove a causal relationship, the correlation between education and protest turnout provides some tentative support for the theory that education creates certain predispositions towards democracy (H2). In view of protesters educational attainments, both Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions could be interpreted as predominantly middle class revolutions (Hypothesis 6A). Classical Marxist accounts of democratization, like that of Moore (1966), identified the crucial middle actor as an active class of merchants and entrepreneurs in towns. 12 Yet the set of small bourgeoisie opposed to landed interests in a largely agrarian economy responsible for English industrial takeoff and democratization seem not to be present in the 2011 Egyptian and Tunisian cases; not only is the production structure in both Egypt and Tunisia far more manufacturing- and service-oriented than that of early developing England, but the owners of Egyptian and Tunisian capital are to varying degrees aligned with the state. 13
Rather, in the contemporary literature the term middle class tends to refer either to a set of relatively new urban occupations (cf. Huntington 1991) or to a certain range of individual earnings (Ravallion 2009). Some support for the notion that these were middle class revolutions exists according to both definitions. The Arab Barometer contains detailed occupation information, with thirteen different categories including groups outside the labor force (see
11 The multivariate specification with education (Table 2, column II) excludes occupation and income variables because the high degree of correlation between these three variables makes precise estimation of a fuller model difficult. 12 Rational choice institutional accounts highlight similar intermediate actors; Stasavage (2002) identifies the favorable balance of power between land, capital and the crown as the critical factor impelling the development of British parliamentary institutions. 13 The close relationship between industrialist classes and the state has been documented in many Arab states. See Soliman 2011 and Amin 2011 on Egypt, Murphy 1999 on Tunisia and Richards and Waterbury 1995, generally. 17 Occupation section of Table 1). Four of the occupational categories accord with Huntingtons (1991) definition of the urban middle class: professional, employer or director of an institution, government employee and private sector employee. 14 These categories are overrepresented among protesters relative to their share of the general population in both states. Only private sector employees in Tunisia participate at average levels for the general population (Table 1). These four categories, if taken together as a middle class, constitute 55 percent of the Egyptian demonstrators but only 25 percent of the general population. In particular, professionals stand out as an especially active group in the Egyptian revolution, constituting 17 percent of demonstrators but only 5 percent of the population. Their prevalence in the protesting group does not seem to be an artifact of other demographic factors; an ordinary logistic regression of protest participation on a professional dummy variable with age and gender controls shows the professional category to be statistically significant. By contrast, the professional category is not statistically different from zero in the same regression for Tunisia. 15 In Tunisia, the four middle class categories comprise 30 percent of the demonstrators but only 19 percent of the population. In this respect, while the middle class was significantly over-represented among participants in both revolutions, the Tunisian revolution was more diverse in terms of the class background of its participants than the Egyptian revolution, resembling more of a cross-class alliance, with
14 The category professionals includes lawyers, accountants, teachers and doctors. The word used in the questionnaire for government and private sector employees (muwazzaf) implies a clerical or administrative position, distinguished from manual work. The educational and income profiles of these groups further support this characterization; 79 percent of Egyptian government employees and 75 percent of private sector employees are in the top 60 percent of the income distribution and 80 percent of Tunisian government employees and 90 percent of private sector employees are in the two quintiles of the income distribution. Forty-seven percent of Egyptian and 38 percent of Tunisian government employees have a bachelors degree or more compared with 19 percent overall in Egypt and 17 percent in Tunisia. 15 The z-score for the professional dummy on the Egyptian sample is 3.88, compared to 1.23 for Tunisia. Professionals constitute a small part of the sampled population5 percent of the total Egypt sample and 4 percent for Tunisia. This is cause for some caution, though the age and education profiles of protesters compared to the general population, detailed above, provide some confidence that this variation is not idiosyncratic. 18 workers constituting 17 percent of participants, students19 percent, and the unemployed21 percent. The high rate of participation among government employees (21 percent of Egyptian protesters versus 13 percent of the total population, and 12 percent of Tunisian protesters versus 7 percent of the total population) casts doubt on the resource mobilization theories predicting that individuals whose income is tied to the state will be more likely to be quiescent (Hypothesis 7). The most direct beneficiaries of state largesse, such as Ben Alis son-in-law Mohamed Sakher al- Materi (who kept tigers on his personal residence and had frozen yogurt flown in on his private jet from St. Tropez) were obviously unlikely to protest against these regimes (Raghavan 2011). But the data show that most civil servants were given insufficient perquisites to bind them to the regime; Egyptian government employees were at the 62 nd percentile in the income distribution and their Tunisian counterparts were at the 74 th percentile. The picture when one defines the middle class by income and consumption patterns, as economists normally do, is less clear. The canonical definition in this scholarship is from Thurow (1987), who locates the middle class between 75 percent and 125 percent of mean earnings in the country. This literal middle of the income distribution seems not to have been the crucial segment in either Tunisia or Egypt. The top income quintile was overrepresented among protesters in Egypt and Tunisia, comprising 29 percent and 28 percent, respectively, of all protesters; in both countries there is a steady decline in protest turnout rates moving from the top to the bottom income quintiles. 16 Other economists have attempted to locate an externally
16 A top quintile income dummy is a statistically significant predictor for turnout in a bivariate context for both countries, but its statistical significance disappears in both cases when a dummy for the highest level of education is included. The coefficient on the top level of education is significant for Egypt in the aforementioned multivariate regression (z score is 4.18), but drops to marginal significance (z score of 1.67) for Tunisia. This is unsurprising given that the correlation between the income quintile measure and education measure is 0.4325 for Egypt and 0.5219 for Tunisia. 19 anchored line at which a middle class begins. Banerjee and Duflo (2008) argue that the middle class in the developing world consists of people earning between $2 and $10 a day, and Milanovic and Yitzaki (2002) draw the upper and lower bounds for the middle class at the mean per capita incomes of Brazil and Italy ($PPP 3470 and $PPP 8000 in 2002 dollars, respectively). Ravaillon (2009) criticizes the $2 per day lower bound for being arbitrary and low, proposing bounds of $9 to $13 for a category of developing world upper middle class. Whatever the exact bounds of the middle class, it is a useful exercise to investigate the participation of individuals from an income range considered propitious for democracy in other contexts The median per capita annual income in the Egyptian sample was $1,937, or $5.31 per day and in Tunisia, $4,690 and $12.85, respectively; the 80 th percentile in Egypt was $8.91 per day or $3254 per year, and in Tunisia, $17 per day or $6298 per year. 17 On the Ravaillon definition, the Tunisian case appears not to be a middle class revolution, as the excluded top quintile contributed the largest share of protesters (28 percent) of any quintile in the sample. The middle class defined by Milanovic and Yitzaki for both states, and by Ravaillon for Egypt, includes the top income quintile and, more generally, the income groups that participated at the highest levels. A definitive evaluation of middle class theories using these externally defined income definitions is difficult because the actual income distributions of Tunisia and Egypt provide insufficient variation to evaluate protest behavior at incomes above the middle class range. In
17 Updating for inflation, Milanovic and Yitzakis bounds become $PPP 4,337 and $PPP 10,000. The income figures quoted in the are in nominal terms; accounting for purchasing power parity, the mean and 80 th percentile for the Egyptian sample in 2011 US dollars (PPP) are $3,941 and $6,737. For Tunisia, the numbers are $9,495 and $12,750, respectively. Thus, most of the top half of the Egyptian distribution would be included in the middle class defined by Ravaillon, though Milanovic and Yitzaki would exclude approximately the top quintile. In Tunisia, the top two quintiles would seem to be excluded from both definitions by dint of being too affluent. These conversions should be viewed with caution, however, as they are likely overstated; the 2010 GDP (PPP) per capita for Egypt was $6540 and $9454 for Tunisia. Given the inequality of income distributions, these measures of GDP per capita imply that actual per capita incomes are a great deal lower. It is not unreasonable, therefore, to infer that the income-defined middle classes of both countries fall in the upper regions of both income distributions, excluding only a small group at the very top of each distribution. Figures are from Heston et al. 2012, BLS 2012, IMF 2012. 20 spite of this limitation, individuals near the top of the Egyptian and Tunisian distributions, and therefore in the middle of the global income distribution, formed a disproportionate bloc of demonstrators in both revolutions. In contrast to the elusive middle class, the working class seems not to have been critical in either revolution (Hypothesis 6b). It is true that that 58 percent of union and professional syndicate members participated in Tunisia, compared to 15 percent of non-members; in Egypt 19 percent of Egyptian union members participated, compared to 7 percent of non-members. But an investigation into the occupational profiles of these union members confirms that members came overwhelmingly from the professional strata identified earlier. Only 2 percent of Egyptians who identified their occupation as worker were members of unions, and government employees constituted the largest occupational group of union members (39 percent of total union members), followed by professionals (23 percent). In Tunisia, no self-identified workers were union members, and government employees similarly constituted the largest group of union members (44 percent of all union members), followed by the other employed (19 percent) and professionals (14 percent). 18 Workers in fact participated at average levels in both countries, constituting 9 percent of protesters and 10 percent of the total sample in Egypt, and 17 percent of protesters and 14 percent of the sample in Tunisia. As social movement theorists might predict (McAdam and Paulson, 1993), participants in the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions were a heavily networked population. Highlighting the critical importance of weak ties, internet usage was far higher among protesters in both Egypt and Tunisia than in society as a whole. While Egyptian internet usage 19 stood at only 18 percent of the sampled population, internet users comprised 49 percent of all demonstrators. The rate of
18 The findings of the Arab Barometer sample are broadly consistent with national statistics about union participation in Tunisia and Egypt. 19 Internet usage is defined here as using the internet at least once a month. 21 internet usage in Tunisia was even higher, at 33 percent for society as a whole, and 62 percent of demonstrators. 20 The correlation between internet usage and protest participation is robust to inclusion of all the aforementioned markers of middle class membership in multivariate analysis (Table 2). Clearly, the internet served as a mechanism for protesters to coordinate, as evidenced by the importance of the We are all Khaled Said Facebook page for organizing the first protests in Egypt on January 25 th (Herrera 2011). But it is not clear from the cross-tabulated data on internet use and participation alone whether internet use inculcated attitudes propitious to protest behavior of whether it functioned merely as a conduit for logistical details. Analysis of the relationship between internet use and participant attitudes is taken up in the following section. As Hypothesis 4 would predict, civic association membership was strongly associated with protest turnout in both Egypt and Tunisia, and this relationship holds up in both bivariate and all multivariate specifications (Tables 2 and 3). Survey respondents saying they belonged to at least one civic organization comprised 46 percent of demonstrators in Egypt, though they constituted only 15 percent of the population. Similarly, members of non-political organizations in Tunisia constituted 21 percent of the protesting population but only 6 percent of the overall population (see Table 1). The large proportion of demonstrators who were members of civic organizations, particularly in Egypt, suggests a strong correlation between civic organization membership and protest participation. In both Egypt and Tunisia, civic organizations drew members from various segments of society, including professional and trade unions, charitable societies and cultural or youth associations. Unions formed a significant part of civil society participation, with members comprising 24 percent of Egyptian demonstrators and only 10 percent of the total population. In Tunisia, unions formed a smaller part of the general population
20 The internet usage rates found in the survey are only partially consistent with World Bank (2010) internet usage data, which suggests that 26.7% of Egyptians and 36.6% of Tunisians use the internet. 22 (3 percent), but contributed protesters at a rate disproportionate to their share of the population (10 percent of all protesters). Though we have no direct evidence on the religious character of civic organizations, it is reasonable to infer that many of were religious in character; Islamic charitable societies and religious movements like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Ennahda in Tunisia exemplify this tendency. Neither Ennahda nor the Muslim Brotherhood were involved in the organization of the early protests, but civic organization membership has a statistically significant positive correlation with religiosity (measured by a fifteen-point scale) for Tunisia though not for Egypt. 21 Thus religious groups are likely to be among the important civic organizations in both countries, though not the decisive actors driving protest behavior in either country. Secularization theses associating decreased religiosity with increased support for democracy (Hypothesis 5) find little support in the Egypt and Tunisia data. To capture levels of piety, we constructed a fifteen-point scale variable measuring the frequency at which individuals perform five behaviors associated with religiosity, including reading the Quran or Bible and praying. 22 The average score for Egypt was 9.33 and for Tunisia 6.10, indicating that Egyptians tend to at least report higher degrees of religious piety. To assess whether piety was correlated with turnout, we conducted difference of means test for turnout rates between those above and below the mean piety score in each country; in neither case could we reject the null hypothesis that more religious people had a different underlying propensity to turn out than the less religious. 23 The evidence from a multivariate setting is even more damning for the naive
21 The Muslim Brotherhood leadership actively discouraged its members from turning out to the early days of the Egyptian revolution, and the Tunisian protests began through local organizing in Sidi Bouzid (Slackman 2011, Whitaker 2010). 22 The measure is gender-neutral, as it evaluates activities done by both genders. Mosque attendance, a seemingly natural variable to include, is excluded because women are in many cases discouraged or prohibited from attending. 23 We conducted a similar investigation using just one prominent indicator of religiosity, an individuals propensity to read the Quran or Bible. Egyptians who reported reading the Quran or Bible always or most of the time 23 secularization hypothesis, showing an inverse relationship between religious practice and participation in these revolutions; while the religiosity variable is not significant in the Egyptian case, it is positively associated with turnout in the Tunisian case (see Table 2). These correlations decisively dispel the notion that Islam somehow generates in its adherents a strong aversion to challenging any form of political authority (cf. Kedourie 1994). Finally, a striking fact about the profile of demonstrators in both countries was that they were overwhelmingly male; 77 percent of Egyptian and 79 percent of Tunisian demonstrators were men. One might infer from these statistics that women were as a rule excluded from participation in demonstrations, but disaggregating women by occupation reveals a more complex story. Housewives comprised 77 percent of Egyptian women and only 52 percent female demonstrators; women in the categories of professional and government employee comprised only 10 percent of the Egyptian female population but 39 percent of the demonstrators. In Tunisia, similarly, housewives comprised 51 percent of the female population and only 18 percent of the demonstrators. The remaining female demonstrators were spread across several other employment categories, including unemployed (26 percent), government employee (15 percent) and private sector employee (10 percent). 24 The occupational distribution of women who participated, conditional on their being in the labor market, reflects the distribution for men; Egyptians clustered in white-collar occupations while Tunisians came from a wider range of occupations, including the unemployed. A chi-square test failed to reject the null hypothesis that male and female protesters came from similar occupational distributions (p-
comprised 75 percent of the general population and 83 percent of the demonstrators, while Tunisians reading the Quran or Bible constituted 58 percent of the sample and 59 percent of the demonstrators (see Table 1). In this respect, revolutionary participants in Tunisia were less religious than was true in Egypt, but still about as religious as their population as a whole. 24 Bivariate logistic regressions of participation on a housewife dummy for the female population are statistically significant in both cases (p-value for Egypt is 0.006 and for Tunisia 0.001). 24 value 0.36). That women who work participate in patterns similar to those of their male counterparts suggests that women with the resources allowing or economic exigencies compelling their entry into the workforce are less bound by the patriarchal norms depressing the participation of housewives. To sum up, this demographic sketch of the populations protesting in Tunisia and Egypt casts doubt upon several of the theories advanced to explain these revolutions. The poorest segments of society were among the least likely to participate, indicating that protests were not borne primarily of absolute levels of deprivation. Similarly, cohort-based value change and secularization seem not to be impelling participation in these revolutions; protesters tended to be as religious or more than the general population in both cases. In many respects, these did appear to be predominantly middle class revolutions. Demonstrators in both states had higher levels of education and income than the general population and tended to be engaged in urban white-collar work. There were, however, important differences between the participations in the two revolutions. While Egyptian revolution participants were predominantly middle class, significant elements within the Tunisian revolution came from groups outside the middle class (workers, students, and the unemployed), making it more of a cross-class coalition than was the case in Egypt. Tunisian protesters were disproportionately from the youngest group in the survey, whereas the highest rates of participation in Egypt came from the middle-aged. Civil society participation was a reliable predictor of turnout in both cases. But members of civic organizations comprised a much greater share of the Egyptian protesters (46 percent) than of the Tunisian participants (15 percent). In this sense, we can say that while both revolutions disproportionately came from an intermediate segment of society (that is, not the elite, but not those living at the margin of society), each relied on somewhat different coalitions. 25
A Brief Ukrainian Comparison It would be helpful, in contextualizing the Egyptian and Tunisian cases, to see whether these findings accord with those from other democratizing revolutions. The paucity of individual-level data on participants in revolutions limits our ability to do so. It is nevertheless a useful exercise to compare these findings with the only other case for which comparable data exist--the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. From a representative sample of 1,801 Ukrainians, 25 19 percent participated in the protests of the Orange Revolution. This level of turnout is roughly comparable to that in Tunisia (16 percent). Protesters in Ukraine tended to be a good deal older than in the Middle East, as the mean age of Ukrainian participants was 41 (compared to 33 in Tunisia and 38 in Egypt). Yet Ukrainian participation rates by age category look roughly similar to Tunisia; 30 percent of 18 to 24 year olds participated (compared to 30 percent in Tunisia) and 17 percent of 25 to 34 year olds participated (versus 20 percent in Tunisia). Of course, there are quite significant differences in the age structures of these societies. Whereas people under 35 comprise 45 percent of the Tunisian and 48 percent of the Egyptian populations, they are only 32 of Ukrainians (World Bank 2010). Moreover, unlike the male- dominated Egyptian and Tunisian protests, the gender composition of the Ukrainian demonstrators more closely resembled that of the general population, with 54 percent of protesters male. The occupational, educational, and income profile of Ukrainian protesters were also quite different from those of the Arab revolutions. Workers represented the largest single group among
25 The Ukrainian data come from the March 2005 Monitoring survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Ukraine. It is based on a representative sample of 1,800 adult Ukrainians (18 years or older) using a combination of stratified, random, and quota sampling and was conducted from March 2-30, 2005 in all provinces of Ukraine. For details on sampling procedures, see Panina, 2005: 17-18. We thank the Institute (and in particular, Victor Stepanenko) for allowing us access to the data from the survey. 26 those protesting in Ukraine, comprising 24 percent of all protesters. Retired people comprised the second largest group at 19 percent, and professionals came in third at 15 percent. In Egypt and Tunisia the highest income groups were significantly more likely to participate, but the distribution of participants by income quintiles in Ukraine bears more of a U-shape. The wealthiest quintile comprised 24 percent of demonstrators, and the poorest quintile comprised 23 percent of protesters, with the second poorest at 14 percent and the middle quintile at 17 percent. A smaller proportion of Ukrainian participants (17 percent) had some higher education, in large part because participation did not drop off as sharply for the least educated, who participated at a rate twice that of Tunisia and four times that of Egypt. Ironically, though Ukraine is a post-communist country, religiosity was a more salient predictor of revolutionary participation in Ukraine than it was in either Egypt or Tunisia. The participation rate for the religious (defined here as visiting church in ones spare time) was 29 percent, compared to 17 percent for those who reported not visiting church. It is clear that regional cleavages and national identity issues were central motivations for participation in the Orange Revolution, and religion (particularly true for Uniates from Western Ukraine) was one of the dimensions along which these cleavages fell (Beissinger, 2011). The driving role of identity conflicts within the Orange Revolution sets the Ukrainian case apart from the Arab cases and explains to some extent why groups that one might not expect to participate in a democratizing revolution (such as retired people, or those in the lowest income quintile) turned out in force in the Orange Revolution. In sum, the Orange Revolution participants tended to be from much more varied class backgrounds than those in Egypt or Tunisia. The age and educational structures of the Ukrainian population, as well as the national identity issues at stake, produced a set of revolutionary participants that looked quite different from both of the Arab cases. 27
The Role of Democratic Motivations within Democratic Revolutions We turn now to look at who, among the participants in these revolutions, understood them primarily as struggles for democratic freedoms. The Arab Barometer asked respondents to identify the most important and second most important reasons that they believed citizens participated in the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. The answers of those who also indicated that they had participated in the revolutionary protests (n=98 for Egypt, n=192 for Tunisia) are presented in Table 4. We turned to this question as a way of identifying participants according to their differing motivations for and perceptions of participation in the revolutions. We were keen to distinguish respondents who prioritized economic or other grievances from those who prioritized civil or political freedoms. While we recognize that the question in the Arab Barometer did not ask participants directly why they as individuals participated in the revolution, given that the respondents were all participants, one would expect that their answers to this question were likely informed by their own motivations and experiences. Indeed, subsequent analysis confirmed that the groupings of opinion on this question lined up with other questions in ways that one would expect only if respondents answered this question with their own personal beliefs and experiences in mind, essentially falsifying the notion that respondents tended to answer this question without reference to their own motivations and experiences. 26 Thus, the
26 Thus, for example, in the Egyptian sample those people who identified civil and political freedoms as the reason why people protested were also (in a separately answered question) were almost five times more likely to identify democracy as one of the top two issues facing the country or as the top issue facing the Arab world than those who identified other reasons for the protests. They also tended to be more highly educated and disproportionately participated in civil society organizations (as one might expect). Similarly, almost all of those Egyptian participants who identified themselves as unemployed chose the economy as the main reason for the protests. And those who chose the economy as main reasons for the protests also disproportionately answered (on a separate question) that the most important features of democracy were "Narrowing the gap between rich and poor" and "Providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing)." If respondents were answering the question on why people participated in the revolutions without any reference to their own motivations, then these patterns of response to other questions would not have been observed, and one would have instead expected no relationship between answers on these 28 question can be used as a rough indicator of motivation for participation in the revolutions. But even if individuals did, in some cases, answer this question in ways that differed from their own personal motivations for participation in the revolution, the answers still provide us with a way of identifying those who perceived these revolutions as aimed primarily at attaining civil and political freedoms versus other purposes. [Table 4 here] Since respondents were asked to identify both a primary and a secondary reason for why people participated, we used latent class cluster analysis in order to identify and simplify the groupings by which people answered the question. 27 Latent class cluster analysis is a finite mixture approach used to identify categories of individuals who share similar characteristics. Individuals are classified into clusters based upon the probabilities of their membership, which (unlike traditional k-means cluster analysis) are estimated directly from the model. 28 As suggested in the literature, we used the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), the Akaike Information Criterion with a per-parameter penalty of 3 (AIC3), and the p-value for the likelihood ratio chi-squared statistic L 2 in order to adjudicate between models with different numbers of clusters. 29 As the results in Table 5 show, for the Egyptian participants both BIC and AIC3 criteria suggested a 4-cluster model, while the p-value suggested a 7-cluster model (a more complex variation on the 4-model cluster). However, given the relatively small sample size for the Egyptian participants (n=98), the p-value criterion for the 7-cluster model may be unreliable,
different questions. In sum, covariate analysis falsifies the notion that respondents answered the question on motivations for participation without reference to their own motivations. 27 For the Egyptian sample, the variables identifying those who saw protests as aimed at installing an Islamic regime were excluded, since the numbers who answered affirmatively on this were so small that inclusion in the analysis biased the results. Rather, a substantial portion of Egyptian respondents identified demands that power not be passed on to Mubaraks son Gamal as a motivation for the protests, and we include this response in the analysis. 28 See Vermunt and Magidson, 2002. Unlike traditional k-means clustering, latent class cluster variables can be continuous, nominal, or ordinal. Latent Gold 4.5.0 was used to perform the analyses. 29 On the appropriateness of these criteria, see Fonseca, 2008; Andrews and Currim, 2003; Vermunt and Magidson, 2004. 29 since the number of individuals in some of categories was small, and interpretation of a 7-cluster model is cumbersome in any case. For the Tunisian participants both the BIC and p-value criteria suggested a 5-cluster model, while the AIC3 criterion suggested a 7-cluster model (again, a more complex variant of the 5-cluster model). For both the Egyptian and Tunisian samples all of the models were examined in their full results; for both samples the 7-cluster models resulted in no significant differences in interpretation from the 4-cluster Egyptian and 5-cluster Tunisian models. Therefore, the more parsimonious, reliable, and easily interpretable 4-cluster and 5- cluster models are reported on here. [Table 5 here] Table 6 reports the conditional probabilities of cluster membership for participants in the two revolutions. The findings point to the key role played by economic demands (and to a lesser extent, corruption) in motivating participation in both revolutions, as well as the relatively low priority accorded to civil and political freedoms. Among Egyptian participants, for instance, the largest cluster (labeled Cluster 1, with 38 percent of participants) consisted of those who identified the reasons for participation as being primarily about the economy and secondarily about corruption, while another 22 percent (Cluster 3) identified the same reasons only in reverse order (i.e., primarily against corruption, and secondarily about the economy). Another group (labeled Cluster 2, with 22 percent) identified the main reason for protest as being primarily against the succession of Mubaraks son Gamal; these participants, however, were divided over the secondary reasons that they identified. Finally, the smallest cluster (labeled Cluster 4, with 18 percent) identified the main reason for participation as demands for civil and political freedoms (It was divided in the secondary reasons it identified). Thus, only a small core of participants 30 understood the Egyptian revolution as aimed primarily at attaining liberal democracy, whereas most saw concerns over the economy and corruption as dominating participant agendas. [Table 6 here] Similarly, among participants in the Tunisian Revolution economic concerns and concerns over corruption were top priorities. Demands for civil and political freedoms, however, played a more prominent role among perceived motivations of participants in Tunisia than in Egypt, as a significant group of Tunisian participants listed demands for civil and political freedoms as a secondary motivation for participation in the revolution. The largest cluster of participants (labeled Cluster 1, at 32 percent) identified the reasons for participation as primarily the economy and secondarily corruption, while a second cluster (Cluster 2, at 26 percent) understood the reasons for participation as primarily the economy and secondarily civil and political freedoms. A third cluster of 21 percent (labeled Cluster 3) identified civil and political freedoms as the primary motivation for participation and corruption as a secondary motivation. Cluster 4 (15 percent), the inverse of Cluster 1, identified the main reason for participation as corruption and secondarily the economy. Finally, a very small cluster (labeled Cluster 5, at 6 percent) identified establishing an Islamic regime as the main motivation for protest participationin contrast to Egyptian Revolution participants. Thus, in the Tunisian revolution approximately the same proportion of participants as in the Egyptian revolution (about a fifth) viewed civil and political freedoms as the primary motivation for participation, but unlike the Egyptian Revolution another quarter of Tunisian participants rated civil and political freedoms as a secondary motivation for participation. Nevertheless, in neither revolution can one say that concern over civil and political freedoms dominated the protest agendas of those who participated in them, according to participants. 31 We turn now to look in more detail at the individuals within these groupings and the extent to which other variables were associated with how individuals identified and prioritized motivations for participation in ways that might confirm or undermine particular hypotheses about democratic revolution. In particular, we are interested in elucidating who identified civil and political freedoms as a motivation for participation in the revolution, as opposed to other motivations such as economic deprivation or corruption, and whether their backgrounds, behaviors, and attitudes correspond with what various theories of democratization and democratic revolution might predict. We probe these questions through an examination of the demographic, behavioral, and attitudinal covariates of cluster membership for each of the revolutions (produced in Tables 7 and 8), comparing these to the characteristics of all participants in the revolution. [Tables 7 and 8 here] One conclusion that one can draw from such an exercise is that those revolution participants who saw civil and political freedoms as a reason for participation in the revolution not only differed substantially from other groupings within each revolution, but differed in certain respects across these revolutions as well. Thus, as can be seen in Table 7, those who believed the primary reason for participation in the Egyptian revolution was to achieve civil and political freedoms (Cluster 4) were, on average, more female, older, more likely to have a higher education, more likely to be in the top two quintiles of income, more likely to be a member of a civil society organization, more likely to believe that government should enact laws in accordance with Islamic law, more likely to have trusted the Muslim Brotherhood, more likely to have believed that democratization was one of top problems facing the country or the Arab world, and more likely to have understood the most important features of democracy as equality 32 of political rights between citizens and the elimination of financial and administrative corruption than other participants in the revolution. Like their counterparts within the Egyptian revolution, those who prioritized civil and political freedoms as the main reason for participation in the Tunisian Revolution (Cluster 3) were, on average, more female, older, more likely to be a member of a civil society organization, more religious, but less likely to trust Ennahda (the Islamist party in Tunisia, and equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt) than other participants in the Tunisian revolution. And those who indicated that civil and political freedoms were a secondary reason for participation in the Tunisian Revolution (Cluster 2) were more male, more highly educated, more likely to be professionals, less religious, and more likely to see the most important feature of democracy as the opportunity to change government through elections than other participants in the Tunisian Revolution. In both revolutions the most democratically-oriented participants were, on average, older than other participants, raising further doubts about a generational values explanation of democratic revolutions (H3). Those who saw the revolutions as motivated by the desire for civil and political freedoms tended to be middle-aged in Egypt, and in Tunisia there was also no particular tilt toward youth within this group. Indeed, as Tables 7 and 8 show, the youngest participants in both revolutions were by and large primarily concerned with the economy and secondarily with corruption, and largely failed to see civil and political liberties as a motivation for participation in the revolution. Moreover, the data raise further serious questions about the secularization hypothesis. In both revolutions those revolutionary participants who saw civil and political freedoms as a primary motivation for participation tended to be somewhat more religious in their personal practice than society as a whole (and in Tunisiathe more religious than other participants). In 33 Egypt, those who saw revolutionary participation as championing civil and political freedoms trusted moderate Islamist parties and favored government in accordance with Islamic law more than other participants. In Egypt those who believed that the primary reason for participation in the revolution was to oppose the Gamal succession (Cluster 2) were, on average, the most religious, though significantly, they were also less trustful of the Muslim Brotherhood, and more critical of U.S. interference in the Middle East than other participants in the revolution. Their high level of religiosity, combined with their disproportionate mistrust of the moderate Muslim Brotherhood and support for resistance to U.S. interference in the Middle East, marked this group as the likely location of Salafists within the Egyptian Revolution. Similarly, in the Tunisian Revolution the small cluster of participants (Cluster 5) who understood participation in the revolution as aimed primarily at establishing an Islamic regime were, as one might expect, highly observant religiously; they also disproportionately favored rule by Islamic law, trusted the Islamist party Ennahda, and allowed the possibility of rule by Islamic law without elections. 30
At first glance, the dominance of economic motivations among the reasons participants cited for participation in the revolution might seem to suggest a deprivation argument. But as we saw earlier, in both revolutions those who participated were, on average, significantly better off economically and better educated than the rest of populationi.e., disproportionately middle class. If we look at who believed the primary reason for participation in the Egyptian revolution was the economy (Cluster 1), they were, on average, more likely to be unemployed and more likely to understand the most important features of democracy as narrowing the gap between rich
30 Since Bourguibas reign, Tunisia embarked on a staunch secularist agenda, which aimed to remove Islam from not only the political sphere but from the public sphere as well. Though the Muslim Brotherhood was subjected to a severe campaign of suppression under Nasser, it has faced a considerably less hostile environment during the last two decades in Egypt. Although not allowed to participate formally as a political party, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood was allowed the right to mobilize, participate in civil society, and run its candidates as independents in contested parliamentary elections. Tunisias Ennahda, by contrast, remained an outlawed party, and many of the partys key leaders and influential supporters were exiled. 34 and poor and providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing) than other participants in the revolution. At the same time, those who prioritized the economy were also more highly educated than most other participants and predominantly belonged to the middle and upper portions of Egyptian society (only 14 percent belonged to the bottom two income quintiles, compared to 36 percent of Egyptian society). Indeed, the poorest and least educated grouping among Egyptian Revolution participants (with 26 percent in the bottom two income quintiles and a quarter with only an elementary school education or less) prioritized corruption as the primary reason for participation (and only secondarily, the economy). In the Tunisian Revolution those who prioritized the economy as a reason for participation (Clusters 1 and 2) were also more likely to understand the most important features of democracy as narrowing the gap between rich and poor and providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing) than other participants. But they tended to be significantly poorer than other clusters (31 percent in the bottom two income quintiles, similar to Tunisian society as a whole) and were more likely to be workers (23 percent, compared to 15 percent of society as a whole) than other clusters of participants. Using the results of this cluster classification, we tested further for the factors associated with prioritizing civil and political freedoms in these revolutions through a multinomial logistic model of cluster membership (Table 9). 31 To simplify the results, we report only on those choices within the multinomial model that involved civil and political freedoms (Secondary choices are listed in parentheses, preceded by a plus sign). Though not reported in the table, we found no statistically significant relationship in either Egypt or Tunisia between prioritization of civil and political freedoms and either income quintiles or holding a middle class occupation.
31 The dependent variable in these regressions is the cluster into which our latent class analysis classified individuals. The multinomial logistic model computes the increase in the relative risk of belonging in one category over another category associated with a one-unit increase in an independent variable (controlling for the effects of other independent variables). 35 Thus, while these revolutions could be characterized as middle class revolutions, the middle class was not specifically a champion of democratic freedoms within them, challenging part of Hypothesis 6A. Model 2 for participants in the Egyptian revolution indicates a statistically significant relationship between education and prioritization of civil and political freedoms over corruption as a reason for participation, lending some support to Hypothesis 2. But the relationship becomes marginally significant when controlled for other factors. Among participants in the Tunisian revolution we no bivariate relationship between education and prioritizing civil and political freedoms the main reason for participation, and when placed in a multivariate context, the results indicate that the educated actually prioritized the economy over freedom (though the results are only marginally significant). [Table 9 here] Rather, by far the strongest factor predicting whether participants prioritized civil and political freedoms within these revolutions was participation in civil society associations. Even controlling for other factors, it retains a statistically significant relationship with prioritization of civil and political freedoms over the economy among participants in both revolutions. The relationship is especially strong in Egypt, where being a member of a civil society association increased the likelihood of prioritizing civil and political freedoms over the economy by over 600 percent. 32 By contrast, internet usage had no relationship whatsoever with prioritization of civil and political freedoms among participants in either revolution (or, for that matter, with any reason provided for why individuals participated). While the internet may have been a major factor encouraging participation, unlike the strong ties of traditional civil society association,
32 In Tunisia, the results also show that participation in civil society associations was associated with prioritizing attaining an Islamic regime over economic reasons for participation (with civil and political freedoms as a secondary reason), reflecting the fact noted earlier that religious civil society groups also played an important role in these revolutions. 36 internet mobilization was not associated with thinking about the revolution as primarily about civil and political freedoms. Thus, the internet may make it considerably easier to mobilize large numbers against dictators, but unlike the face-to-face ties of civil society association, it does not seem to be instrumental in making such mobilizations more democratic.
Conclusion To sum up what we have found, we uncovered solid evidence contradicting a number of key hypotheses flowing from the theoretical literature on democratization and democratic revolutions. Participants in these democratic revolutions did not prioritize democratic values over other concerns (H1); they consisted of different age groups in each revolution, with youth prioritizing economic concerns over democratic values (H3); they were on average at least as religious than other members of society, though religion had little relationship with whether participants prioritized democratic change over other concerns (H5); they were not disproportionately from the working class (H6B) or from the disadvantaged (H6D); and they were disproportionately employed in the public sector, seemingly dependent on the state for their livelihood (H7). We also found strong evidence that these revolutions could rightly be characterized as middle class revolutions, with those who were more highly educated, in the upper income categories, and from middle class occupations participating disproportionately compared to other social categories. But we also found significant differences in the coalitions that made these revolutions, with the Tunisian revolution consisting of a more diverse group of participants in terms of class background, representing more of a cross-class coalition (H6C), while the Egyptian revolution was more narrowly dominated by the middle class (H6A). Even so, the Tunisian revolution was not as representative in class terms as the Orange Revolution in 37 Ukraine (the only other case for which comparable individual-level data is available), and it lacked the defining identity cleavage that was central to driving the Orange events. Finally, we showed that there was no consistent relationship between education and prioritizing civil and political freedoms among those who participated in these revolutions (H2), and that while the middle class may have participated disproportionately in these revolutions, they did not act as a democratic vanguard championing civil and political freedoms (H6A). Instead, we found that participation in civil society associations (H4) was the most reliable predictor of whether participants understood these revolutions as primarily about democratic change. We also saw that while the internet enormously facilitated mobilization, unlike the strong ties of civil society association, internet usage was not associated with understanding these revolutions as primarily about civil and political freedoms. In addition to puncturing many of the folk accounts of these revolutions, these findings raise a number of broader issues that cut to the heart of the revolutionary path to democracy more generally. For one thing, they demonstrate empirically that democratizing revolutions do not fit a single mold, but the constituencies that participate in them vary considerably from place to place, their societal coalitions depending significantly on the nature of incumbent dictatorships and the cleavages within society that their rule (or misrule) activates. For another, the findings raise questions about the degree of commitment to democracy within the very social forces that are purported in many accounts to bring about democratizationeven the sacred middle class, which participated in these revolutions in disproportionate numbers, but not with disproportionate commitment to democratic ends. Moreover, they question whether democratic change emerges as a result of a secular process of values-change, or merely as a convenient way of mobilizing a constituency against incumbent dictators and of containing abuses of power. The 38 findings suggest that civil society association plays a critical role in democratic revolutions. Not only were citizens who rebelled against dictatorship more likely to have been members of civic associations, but in contrast to others who participated in these revolutions (and those who mobilized primarily through the internet), those citizens involved in civic associations held stronger democratic commitments. Thus, the fundamental role of civil society (and by implication, of civil society promotion) in bringing about democratic change is confirmed. Finally, if most revolution participants are not motivated primarily by democratic values, but rather are motivated more by other concerns (in the case of these revolutions, economic grievances and, to a lesser extent, concerns about corruption), post-revolutionary governments clearly face a tall order. As Goldstone (2011) has recently pointed out, the coalitional nature of the Arab revolutions means that the sole theme uniting all participating groups was a desire to remove a despised autocrat. Post-revolutionary governments committed to democratic change will need to build public support for democracy within their publics (and even among those who participated in bringing about these revolutions) while simultaneously satisfying the economic frustrations of a diverse set of social actors and addressing the deep-seated practices of corruption that played such central roles in giving rise to these revolutions in the first place. In both Egypt and Tunisia, revolutions were followed by economic slowdown. 33 The future of these post-revolutionary regimes critically depends on their ability to tackle the central issues that their predecessors proved incapable of addressing and that motivated large numbers to take to the streets, propelling new rulers to power in the first place.
33 Annual GDP growth slowed from 5.1 percent in Egypt in 2010 to 1.4 percent in 2011 and the Tunisian economy, growing at a rate of 3.1 percent annually in 2010, contracted 0.8 percent in 2011 (IMF 2012). 39 WORKS CITED
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