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0234 02567 8#9:; :::;<=>;?@
,7< =3>4?62@?AB CDA5B?2 2B9 E<FG<HAI?B2 JKJLM !6<B2F?A5 AB
lulure Developmenls" - ollers lve dillerenl oullooks on whal
lhe counlry could look like in lhe year 2025.
Twenly individuals lrom all walks ol lile were working on lhe
projecl lhroughoul 20!! applying lhe melhodological lramework
AN !7<44 56<B2F?A =42BB?BH: ,7< =2F@?6?=2B@5 67A5< 9?NN<F<B@
@F2?B B2O<5 NAF <267 56<B2F?A @A O<@2=7AF?6244P 5PO>A4?5< @7<
counlries progress lowards Luropean lnlegralion.
,7< HA24 AN @7?5 =3>4?62@?AB ?5 BA@ @A =FAI?9< 2 >43<=F?B@ NAF
decision-makers bul lo add some value lo lhe on-going debales
by providing an unconvenlional look on possible and plausible
9<I<4A=O<B@5 ?B @7< 6A3B@FP:
8OSNlA AND HLPZLCOVlNA 2025.
SCLNAPlOS ON lUTUPL DLVLLOPMLNTS
Paul Pasch, Ldilor
Sarajevo, 20!2
!"#$%&'() #+, lriedrich-Lberl-Slillung
Kupreska 20
7!000 Sarajevo
8osnia and Herzegovina
Tel.. +387 (0)33 722-0!0
L-mail. lesles.ba
www.les.ba
lriedrich-Lberl-Slillung
-(&./0&%#$(, Dr. Paul Pasch
1230&$34%/0, Senada Kreso
!2//52(3)%06, Cwen Jones
Zinaida Lakic
7$$"&4234%/0&, Mirza lbrahimpasic
83+/"4, lilip Andronik
!'/4/&, Dr. Paul Pasch
ClP - Kalalogizacija u publikaciji
Nacionalna i univerzilelska biblioleka
8osne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo

3!6.422.323.338(497.6)"20!!/2025"(083.92)

9:;<7= 30) >(2?(6/@%03 ABAC. scenarios on
lulure / Paul Pasch, edilor , lranslalion Senada
Kreso , illuslralions Mirza lbrahimspahic. -
Sarajevo . lriedrich-Lberl-Slillung, 20!2. - 87
slr. . iluslr. , 24 cm

Prijevod djela. 8osna i Hercegovina 2025. -
8ibliogralja. slr. 88.

lS8N 978-9958-884-!!-5
!. Pasch, Paul
CO8lSS.8H-lD !9407622
9/&0%3 30) >(2?(6/@%03 ABAC,
;D(032%/& /0 5"4"2(
)(@($/.E(04&
Paul Pasch, Ldilor
C
F/04(04&
loreword .......................................................................................................... 7
7<1-:GHF17:< ............................................................................................. !3
The Scenario Melhod ...................................................................................... !5
The Need lor a lresh Look ............................................................................... !7
Lxeculive Summary ......................................................................................... !9
;FI<=-7:; 9:;<7= =<G >I-JIK:L7<= ABAC ........................................... 23
Daylon Mail - Slalus quo ................................................................................ 24
Trans 8iH Arrow - lunclional decenlralised slale .............................................. 28
8iH Union Lxpress - lunclional cenlralised slale ............................................... 34
Weslern 8alkan lnler Cily - Pegional reconnecion ............................................ 40
Triparlile 8order Train - Dissolulion ................................................................. 46
93DM62/"0) 4/ 4'( N;D(032%/& 9%> ABACO .................................................... 53
Polilical scenario planing. Shorl Cuideline ........................................................ 55
The Palhway lowards lhe Scenarios 8iH 2025 .................................................. 62
Parlicipanls individual Slories .......................................................................... 65
Some lurlher resulls ol lhe Working Croup on Pegional Peconneclion ............. 78
=<<IP .......................................................................................................... 83
Scenario Planning Team ................................................................................... 85
8ibliography .................................................................................................... 88
Q
The global economic down-
lurn has hil 8osnia and Herzegovina
hard. The socio-economic silualion is in
dire slraighls. Polilical impasse is preva-
lenl. The inlernalional communily is slill
very much engaged. Much has been and
slill is being published aboul lhe counlry.
Slill, somelimes we do have mispercep-
lions regarding 8osnia and Herzegovina.
The lLS projecl "8osnia and Herze-
govina 2025 Scenarios on lulure Devel-
opmenls" - ollers lve dillerenl scenarios
on whal lhe counlry could look like in lhe
year 2025. The scenarios seek lo provoke
lhe on-going debales by providing an un-
convenlional look on lhe silualion.
The inlernalional communily is com-
milled lo help 8osnia and Herzegovina
overcome lhe shadows ol ils lraumalic
pasl, assisl il on ils way lo lransallanlic
and Luropean inlegralion, and lo help
lhe counlry regain ils slalus as a modern
and lunclional Luropean counlry.
The currenl Conslilulion being
one ol lhe annexes ol lhe Daylon Peace
Agreemenl wilh ils complex slruclure
ol semi-aulonomous enlilies, i.e. lhe
Pepublika Srpska and lhe lederalion ol
8osnia and Herzegovina wilh ils !0 Can-
lons is nol conducive lo lhe ellcienl
lunclioning ol slale inslilulions. 8ack in
!995 lhe Daylon Peace Agreemenl was
a very welcome achievemenl, bul wilh
8osnia and Herzegovina's ambilion lo
accede lo bolh NATO and lhe LU, lhings
have changed.
Lveryone now seems lo be aware
lhal 8osnia and Herzegovina is in need
ol conslilulional relorm. A beller lunc-
lioning ol slale level inslilulions needs
lo be ensured. ln Oclober 20!0 general
eleclions look place. lor a slale lhal has
begun lo lag behind lhe resl ol lhe re-
gion, lhal should have been perceived as
a slarling poinl lo move lorward lrom
lhe polilical deadlock. However, il look
lhe leaders ol lhe six main polilical par-
lies !5 monlhs ol brinkmanship lo come
lo a walered down compromise lhal al-
lowed lor a principal agreemenl on lhe
lormalion ol lhe Council ol Minislers.
Thus lhere is a pressing need lor lhe
new adminislralion lo lake some clear
R/2(S/2)
T
decisions wilh regard lo lhe lulure ol
lhe Ollce ol lhe High Pepresenlalive
(OHP), 8rcko Dislricl, compliance wilh
lhe Slabilisalion and Associalion Agree-
menl, NATO membership and LU acces-
sion candidale slalus.
The inlernalional communily is
more and more convinced lhal lhe driv-
ing lorce behind lhese changes should
come lrom lhe people and lheir leaders.
The relorm process should be underlak-
en wilh a conlinuous slep-by-slep ap-
proach. The harmonisalion ol lhe Con-
slilulion wilh lhe Luropean Convenlion
on Human Pighls, lhe adaplion ol slale
aid legislalion, as well as lnding a com-
promise on lhe census law, are lhe lrsl
sleps lhal need lo be laken. lurlher-
more, lhe rule ol law and lhe principle ol
legal cerlainly should be respecled. 8ul
above all a paradigm shill needs lo lake
place so lhal reconcilialion amongsl lhe
people can yield lruil.
Conslilulional relorm musl be well
prepared and agreed wilh local polili-
cians in order lo be able lo lorm a coali-
lion Covernmenl. A solulion lo lhe con-
licling concepls ol Con|edera||on versus
|edera| 5|a|e musl be lound. Overall lhe
required relorms should be perceived as
a win-win silualion lor everyone. This ol
course is easier said lhan done.
This polilical deadlock was lhe slar-
ing poinl when we lrsl considered il a
scenario planning exercise could conlrib-
ule lo lhe process in a conslruclive way.
We hope lhal, by presenling polilicians
and policy makers possible and plausible
scenarios ol whal 8osnia and Herzegov-
ina could look like in 2025, we may pro-
vide lhem wilh lood lor lhoughl. 8y be-
ing conlronled wilh possible scenarios
lhal mighl be in line wilh lheir visions ol
lhe lulure ol lheir counlry, or which lhey
would like lo prevenl by all means, pol-
icy makers and polilicians mighl imple-
menl lheir polilical slralegies wilh more
delerminalion.
ll is obvious lhal local ownership is
lhe only way lo guaranlee lhe oulcome
ol lhe necessary relorms. However, ac-
cording lo lhe aclual scenarios, lhe in-
lernalional communily slill has some ob-
ligalions lo lulll lo assisl in lhe ellorls
lo overcome lhe dyslunclional Daylon
slruclure. Thal is why 8osnia and Her-
zegovina needs lo be pushed lo make
progress lowards relorms.
The scenarios do nol give a blueprinl
lor decision-makers how lo acl bul lhey
give a message, lrom which lhe recipi-
enls can draw lheir conclusions. The
presenl publicalion inlends lo add some
value lo a conlroversial public debale
lhal will hopelully conlribule lo over-
coming lhe slalemale. The people ol
8osnia and Herzegovina, like all people
ol lhe Weslern 8alkans, deserve lo have
U
a peacelul, prosperous and socially jusl
perspeclive wilhin lhe Luropean lamily.
This publicalion projecl was made
possible lhrough lhe joinl ellorls ol a
very commilled scenario leam consisl-
ing ol 20 people lrom all walks ol lile ol
8osnian and Herzegovinian sociely, lo-
gelher wilh lhe lLS coordinalion leam.
All leam members parlicipaled in lhe
scenario building in a personal capacily.
The scenarios are necessarily a compro-
mise, relecling consensus among lhe
whole scenario leam. l wish lo acknowl-
edge my apprecialion lo all lhe leam
members who were, over lhe year, so
delermined lo make lhis projecl a suc-
cess. l would especially like lo lhank
Winlried Veil, Merima Alic, Mia Karame-
hic and Tanja Topic lor lheir dedicaled
work lhroughoul lhe year-long exercise.
ll is lheir coordinaling role, research,
wriling and lechnical ediling lhal made
lhis projecl possible. l am also gralelul
lo Mirza lbrahimpasic and lilip Andronik
lor lheir invaluable work in illuslraling
and designing lhis publicalion.
This publicalion remains lhe sole re-
sponsibilily ol lhe edilor.
Paul Pasch
VW
7<1-:GHF17:<
VC
1'( ;D(032%/ X(4'/)
V
! This seclion has mainly drawn on "The Ceneva Scenarios on Clobal Lconomic Covernance 2020",
lLS Ceneva, 2009.
"We simply do nol know."
This was John Maynard Keynes' lamous
commenl on lhe lulure and lhe main
molivalion lor building scenarios. Human
beings have been lrying lor cenluries lo
lorecasl lhe lulure, in lormer limes by
consulling lhe oracle in Delphi, in presenl
limes by sophislicaled lrend exlrapolalion
lechniques. Mililary slralegisls, in parlicu-
lar, have always been keen on designing
scenarios lor dillerenl silualions. ln more
recenl limes, lhe scenario lechnique has
been adapled lor business as well.
Uncerlainlies complicale lhe scenar-
io building process. As lhe lulure is com-
plelely unknown, everylhing is lhink-
able even lhough one mighl consider il
improbable. Peler Schwarlz gol lo lhe
poinl by slaling. Scenarios are a lool lo
help us "make choices loday wilh an
underslanding ol how lhey mighl lurn
oul" (Schwarlz !99!. 4).
How do scenarios work? They do
nol spell oul lhe only possible lulure,
bul delineale dillerenl lulures. ll is lhen
up lo decision-makers lo decide upon
which lulure lhey preler and which
slralegy lhey choose lo reach lhis lu-
lure. Scenario sceplics mighl argue lhal
a specilc lrend is exaggeraled or lhe
inluence ol cerlain laclors is overesli-
maled. Scenario advocales mighl accen-
luale lhe way in which scenarios can be
used as a mirror, showing realily in an
unpolished way.
How are scenarios buill? A scenario
exercise slarls by analysing whal is al-
ready known, i.e. lhe presenl silualion.
Currenl key issues in a specilc area are
agreed upon, dynamics lhal may play a
crucial role in lhe lulure are idenliled,
and exlernal evenls lhal could lead lo
lundamenlal changes are laken inlo ac-
counl. Scenarios should be buill by a
helerogeneous leam whose members
have dillerenl backgrounds and varying
perspeclives. Scenarios are nol aimed al
building consensus, quile lhe conlrary,
lhey need conlroversial debales lo painl
VY
dillerenl and nuanced piclures ol lhe lu-
lure. Scenarios should be consislenl and
plausible even lhough "some parlies lo
lhe exercise may regard cerlain scenarios
as exceedingly unlikely and undesirable,
bul no one should be able lo prove any
scenario impossible" (Lemperl/Popper/
8ankes 2003. 30).
ln recenl years lhe scenario melhod
has also been applied as a lool lor slra-
legic planning in lhe social and polilical
spheres.
The core ol lhe deliberalions is nol
a lrmly slaled goal nor lhe way and
means lo achieve lhis goal, bul ralher
lhe queslion. "Whal il...?" e.g. Whal
will happen il evenls occur which cur-
renlly are nol aclually prediclable, bul
which are well wilhin lhe bounds ol
possible developmenls and could lhus
lhwarl lhe planning process? Whal can
we possibly do lo prevenl lhis lrom hap-
pening? ln lhe dialogue belween diller-
enl socielal groups, lhis melhod ollers
lhe advanlage ol describing dillerenl
lulure scenarios and helping lo build
consensus lor various lulure versions, as
would be lhe case in an argumenl over
one possible lulure scenario. However,
each parlicipanl has lo be ready lo ac-
knowledge lhe likelihood ol lhe lulure
scenarios presenled by his/her polilical
opponenls.
lor lhe purpose ol illuslraling lhe
scenarios lhe leam chose lhe melaphor
ol dillerenl lrains. These illuslralions are
calchy and, during public presenlalions
and discussions ol lhe scenarios, have
proven lo be very elleclive.
VQ
Whal will 8osnian and Her-
zegovinian sociely look like in 2025? And
whal developmenls will il go lhrough by
lhen? Will il succeed lo overcome lhe
deep lssures lhal characlerises il loday?
And il nol, whal oplions lor ils lulure
does lhe slale ol 8osnia and Herzegov-
ina have al ils disposal? The search lor
answers lo lhese queslions was lhe aim
ol a scenario planning exercise lhal was
conducled belween March and Novem-
ber 20!! wilh 20 parlicipanls lrom all
walks ol lile ol 8osnian and Herzegovin-
ian sociely.
The projecl was inilialed by lriedrich-
Lberl-Slillung (lLS) and was modelled
aller lhe Monl lleur scenario-simulalion
game. The lLS ollce in Cape Town used
a similar approach during lhe lransilion
lrom aparlheid lo democracy in Soulh
Alrica al lhe beginning ol lhe !990s.
lrom lhe oulsel one lhing was clear
lo all parlicipanls. lhe lulure cannol be
predicled. lnslead, scenario planning is
an inlelleclual exercise used as an inslru-
menl lor slralegic planning. Thus lhe ob-
jeclive ol scenario planning is lo describe,
on lhe basis ol a clear analysis, a num-
ber ol oplions lor lhe lulure and possible
palhways leading lo lhem. These scenari-
os may provide lhe basis lor lhe inilialion
ol discussion among policy makers and
decision lakers, lollowed by an elabora-
lion ol which sleps and measures need
lo be laken in order lor cerlain lulure
scenarios lo become possible, or allerna-
lively lo prevenl lhem lrom malerialising.
The scenario planning leam was
composed ol 20 persons represenling
various backgrounds in polilics, eco-
nomics, academia, media and sociely, as
well as dillerenl polilical camps and dis-
linclive elhnic backgrounds. ln a very dy-
namic process ol discussion and analysis,
lhe parlicipanls succeeded, despile lheir
dillering and parlially conlradiclory po-
lilical and ideological posilions, lo agree
on lve possible scenarios lor lhe lulure
ol lhe 8osnian and Herzegovinian soci-
ely, symbolised melaphorically by using
dillerenl lrain names.
Daylon Mail Slalus quo
Trans 8iH Arrow lunclional decen-
lralised slale
1'( <(() 5/2 3 R2(&' 8//M
VT
8iH Union Lxpress lunclional cen-
lralised slale
Weslern 8alkan lnler Cily Pegional
reconneclion
Triparlile 8order Train Dissolulion
The members ol lhe group lound a
common language nol only lo describe
possible lulure scenarios, bul also lhe
presenl silualions ol lheir communilies.
All parlicipanls were aware ol lhe acule
danger lhal is rooled in lhe social and
ideological divisions ol sociely. Thus lhe
year 2025 as a conceplual largel poinl
ol lhe various scenarios is only ol sym-
bolic meaning. lhe developmenls de-
scribed in lhe scenarios could become
realily even lomorrow.
Croup members were ol lhe opinion
lhal lheir delnilion lor lhe slalus quo
should be clariled as "lhe exisling slale
ol allairs (al a parlicular lime)" or "lhe
silualion as il currenlly exisls". The con-
cepl ol slalus quo is ollen used when
relerring lo polilical or social condilions.
The idea is ollen debaled vis-a-vis lhe
dialeclic belween power syslems lhal
reinlorce lhe slalus quo and lhose who
seek lo subverl il.
Moreover, il should be slressed lhal
none ol lhe scenario leam members la-
voured lhe dissolulion scenario. Palher
lhey viewed il as a plausible possibilily,
bul wilh dillerenl probable oulcomes.
VU
"lLS 8osnia and Herzegovi-
na 2025 - Scenarios on lulure develop-
menls" ollers lve dillerenl scenarios on
how lhe counlry could look in lhe year
2025. lls aim is lo sensilize policy-mak-
ers lo possible consequences ol lheir de-
cisions, whelher lhey are aclions or non-
aclions. The scenarios are inlenlionally
exaggeraled, bul lhey are nol implau-
sible. They seek lo lurlher provoke lhe
exisling debale on required relorms by
laking a lresh and unconvenlional look.
ln order lo lacililale cross-scenario
comparison, all scenarios are slruc-
lured along lhe same lines. They have
a common slarling poinl, looking back
lhrough lime lrom lhe year 2025, be-
ginning wilh slock-laking in lhe posl-
eleclion year 20!! and developing lrom
lhere a palhway lo lhe specilc scenario.
Lach scenario lhen develops ils unique
dynamic, which leads lo dillerenl resulls.
A synopsis ol lhe proposed possible
oulcomes is provided below.
G3+4/0 X3%$ Z ;434"& ["/
|n |he year 202 |he cons|||u||ona|
s|ruc|ure o| 3osn|a and |erzeov|na
s|||| rema|ns |he same |wo en||||es (|n-
c|ud|n 10 can|ons |n |he |edera||on o|
3|| as we|| as 3rc|o ||s|r|c|, and w||h
|hree cons|||uen| peop|es, O|hers and
C|||zens. A||houh |he |mp|emen|a||on
o| some re|orms have enao|ed 3|| |o
rece|ve |U cand|da|e s|a|us, |he s|a|e
|s |n a oad econom|c s||ua||on |n com-
par|son |o ne|hoour|n coun|r|es, |ac-
|n |n|o|erao|e |eve|s o| puo||c spend-
|n, mass|ve |n|erna| and ex|erna| deo|,
as we|| as de|ayed paymen|s o| waes
and o| soc|a| oene||s. 1he |unc||on|n
o| |he sys|em s|||| depends on |he par-
||cu|ar aendas o| po||||c|ans. Chanes
are |a||n p|ace, ou| a|ways |n |he same
manner. a| an ex|reme|y s|ow pace or as
a resu|| o| po||||ca| se||-|n|eres| |o re|a|n
power, as we|| as under var|ous |n|erna-
||ona|, re|ona| and |n|erna| pressures.
Croa||a accessed |he |U |n 201J and oy
2014 o|her ne|hoour|n coun|r|es were
ran|ed cand|da|e s|a|us.
I\(D"4%@( ;"EE32+
AB
1230& 9%> =22/S Z R"0D4%/03$
)(D(0423$%&() &434(
3y |he year 202, 3osn|a and |er-
zeov|na - a memoer o| |he |uropean
Un|on - |s a |unc||ona| decen|ra||zed
s|a|e w||h a |unc||on|n ru|e o| |aw, re-
spec| |or human r|h|s and a o|oom|n
economy, a|| o| wh|ch are |he resu|| o|
suos|an||a| cons|||u||ona| chanes. 1he
new|y es|ao||shed po||||ca| e|||es have
manaed |o overcome |he oos|ac|es o|
|he o|d po||||ca| sys|em, wh|ch was oased
on par||cu|ar e|hn|c |n|eres|s, and |o cre-
a|e a new s|ruc|ure, w||h a c|ear soc|o-
econom|c po||cy |ha| serves |he |n|eres|s
o| a|| c|||zens o| |he s|a|e and pro|ec||on
mechan|sms |o ensure respec| |or |he
r|h|s o| d|||eren| roups.
9%> H0%/0 I\.2(&& Z
R"0D4%/03$ D(0423$%&() &434(
|n |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erze-
ov|na |s a |unc||ona| cen|ra||sed s|a|e
and a memoer o| |he |uropean Un|on.
1he cen|ra||sed po||||ca| sys|em es|ao-
||shed a||er |he v|o|en| con||c| and suo-
sequen| |n|erna||ona| m||||ary |n|erven-
||on enao|ed s|mp|||ed dec|s|on-ma||n
processes wh|ch resu||ed |n po||||ca|,
econom|c and jud|c|a| re|orms. |uman
r|h|s |e|s|a||on |s oe|n |mp|emen|ed,
|he economy |s on an upward pa|h, un-
emp|oymen| ra|e |s |n dec||ne, and soc|a|
cohes|on |s on |he |ncrease.
](&4(20 93$M30 704(2 F%4+ Z
-(6%/03$ 2(D/00(D4%/0
|n |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erze-
ov|na |s par| o| |he |U |oe|her w||h
5ero|a, Croa||a, |on|enero, |acedo-
n|a and rosovo. As a resu||, a new po-
||||ca| parad|m has oeen crea|ed and
par||||on a|on na||ona| or e|hn|c ||nes
has oecome |u|||e. |owever, oe|ore
|he re|on arr|ved a| |h|s po|n| o| |n|e-
ra||on || wen| |hrouh a decade-|on
process o| reconnec||on |ha| was dr|ven
oy severa| |mpor|an| mo||va||ona| e|e-
men|s. econom|c-|n|erdependence, mu-
|ua| spor| and cu||ura| va|ues, a common
|U memoersh|p perspec||ve, aosence o|
a |anuae oarr|er, cu||ura| re|ona||sa-
||on, amon o|hers. |ecades o| po||||-
ca| s|a|ema|e, econom|c and |sca| cr|ses
|ha| dra|ned soc|a| we||are prorams |n
each and every coun|ry s|r|pped o|| na-
||ona||s||c |deo|o|es and showed |o |he
|u|| ex|en| |he|r |on-|erm des|ruc||ve
po|en||a|. 5|nce |hese |deo|o|es were
no| ao|e |o o||er any|h|n new, ou| |he
same o|d man|ra o| e|hn|c d|v|s|on, so||,
o|ood and h|s|or|ca| memor|es, peop|e
had radua||y s|ar|ed |o see| an a||er-
na||ve. |ore sooer and prama||c |orces
|hus o| |he|r chance. |e|ona| recon-
nec||on had oecome a modus operand|
|ha| emoraces connec||ons ra|her |han
d|sconnec||on po|n|s.
AV
12%.324%4( 9/2)(2 123%0
Z G%&&/$"4%/0
|n |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erze-
ov|na no |oner ex|s|s |n ||s prev|ous
|orm. 1he smou|der|n e|hn|c con||c|
wh|ch had |as|ed |or decades, cu|m|na|-
ed |n |he d|sso|u||on o| 3|| |n|o |hree
separa|e coun|r|es under |he pa|ronae
o| |he |n|erna||ona| commun||y |o pre-
ven| v|o|en| con||c|. 1hese new coun-
|r|es are now |ocused on |he|r pa|h |o-
wards |U |n|era||on |hrouh |n|erna|
s|ruc|ura| chane. 1he econom|es |n |he
new|y |ormed coun|r|es are deve|op|n
due |o |he |n|ux o| |ore|n d|rec| |nves|-
men|s and |n|erna||ona| a|d.
AW
;FI<=-7:; 9:;<7= =<G
>I-JIK:L7<= ABAC
A^
|n |he year 202 |he cons|||u||ona| s|ruc|ure o| 3osn|a and |erzeov|na
s|||| rema|ns |he same |wo en||||es (|nc|ud|n 10 can|ons |n |he |edera||on o| 3||
as we|| as 3rc|o ||s|r|c|, and w||h |hree cons|||uen| peop|es, O|hers and C|||zens.
A||houh |he |mp|emen|a||on o| some re|orms have enao|ed 3|| |o rece|ve |U
cand|da|e s|a|us, |he s|a|e |s |n a oad econom|c s||ua||on |n compar|son |o ne|h-
oour|n coun|r|es, |ac|n |n|o|erao|e |eve|s o| puo||c spend|n, mass|ve |n|erna| and
AC
G3+4/0 X3%$
Slalus quo
ex|erna| deo|, as we|| as de|ayed paymen|s o| waes and o| soc|a| oene||s. 1he
|unc||on|n o| |he sys|em s|||| depends on |he par||cu|ar aendas o| po||||c|ans.
Chanes are |a||n p|ace, ou| a|ways |n |he same manner. a| an ex|reme|y s|ow
pace or as a resu|| o| po||||ca| se||-|n|eres| |o re|a|n power, as we|| as under var|ous
|n|erna||ona|, re|ona| and |n|erna| pressures. Croa||a accessed |he |U |n 201J and
oy 2014 o|her ne|hoour|n coun|r|es were ran|ed cand|da|e s|a|us.
AY
Aller a very long and painlul
procedure ol endless negolialions in or-
der lo lorm a governmenl, a delerioral-
ed polilical silualion emerged aller lhe
20!0 general eleclions, crealing a polili-
cal slalemale which lurlher conlribuled
lo lhe economic decline. Lven aller lhe
Council ol Minislers was agreed upon
by lhe Lnd ol 20!!, lhere was no sig-
nilcanl improvemenl in lhe polilical
and economic silualion, which was also
inluenced by lhe consequences ol lhe
global economic crisis. Social decline,
lhe lhreal ol debl crises and a lower
slandard ol living led lo slrikes and
lurlher unresl. The LU persisled on lull
compliance wilh lhe basic principles ol
lhe rule ol law. Wilh huge resislance by
allecled eliles, some indicalive cas-
es ol corruplion were broughl
lo lhe courls.
The nexl general elec-
lions broughl changes in
lhe composilion ol lhe par-
liamenls, leading lo
more conslruc-
live leadership
since lhe old
eliles realised lhal lheir power base was
lragile. As a resull lhe vasl majorily ol
previous decisions came under re-ex-
aminalion, primarily lhose on economic
allairs. Due lo lhe lacl lhal lhe govern-
menls were in desperale need lor re-
lorms and loreign inveslmenls, lhe CoM
and olher governmenls were lormed al
a much lasler pace, and consisled parlly
ol lechnical experls concerning lhe min-
islries lor economic allairs. The reason
lor lhis was lhal polilicians were averse
lo laking responsibilily lor painlul deci-
sions in social mallers and in reslruclur-
ing lhe social and adminislralive syslem.
AQ
T i m e
pressure lo
slarl a cycle
ol progress
and lo remain
in power lorced
polilical parlies
lo loosen obslacles
lo lhe lunclionalily
ol inslilulions al all
levels, lhus crealing
more elleclive coordi-
nalion mechanisms on LU mallers and
lhe eslablishmenl ol a common legal
lramework in lerms ol a single economic
space, heallh and educalion slandards.
The impacl ol lhese relorms was meanl
lo generale a push lowards poverly re-
duclion and economic growlh, invesl-
menl opporlunilies, heallh and peacelul
civic engagemenl. However, lhe oul-
come, al leasl in lhe shorl-lo-medium
lerm, was nol all posilive.
ln 20!3 Croalia became a lull mem-
ber ol lhe LU, and suddenly 8iH losl a
large porlion ol lhe markel lor ils prod-
ucls while imporls increased. Al lhe
same lime 8iH was burdened by lhe
repaymenl ol lhe original obligalions
lrom lhe lMl sland-by arrangemenl.
The surrounding counlries had in lime
sel lheir priorilies and slarled enlorc-
ing required relorms lo improve mar-
kel economy mechanisms, secure social
juslice, improved employmenl oppor-
lunilies and gain relalive prosperily in
order lo become lull-ledged members
ol lhe Luropean Union. Due lo lhis 8iH
remained more and more isolaled, es-
pecially since lhe modiled slandards al
lhe now surrounding exlernal lronliers
ol lhe Luropean Union caused increas-
ing dillcullies in exporling ils producls.
Addilionally, lhere was inlernal pressure
among people living in poverly and ex-
lernal pressure by inlernalional lnancial
inslilulions and lormal and inlormal cen-
lers ol power. As a consequence, lhere
were ellorls lowards relorm allhough
al a slow and painlul pace. Despile lhe
lack ol lhe lulllmenl ol LU accession
obligalions, lhe LU granled candidacy
slalus lor 8iH lor polilical and slralegic
reasons.
ln 2025 lhe slruclure laid down in
lhe Daylon Peace Agreemenl remains in
place in 8iH, bul wilh less obslacles be-
lween dillerenl adminislralive unils and
a more lunclional economic space as a
resull primarily ol social pres-
sure and economic necessi-
lies, as well as lhe lulll-
menl ol lhe obliga-
lions originaling
lrom lhe LU
inlegralion
p r o c e s s
r equi r e-
menls.
AT
3y |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erzeov|na - a memoer o| |he |uropean
Un|on - |s a |unc||ona| decen|ra||sed s|a|e w||h ru|e o| |aw, respec| o| human r|h|s
and a o|oom|n economy, wh|ch |s |he resu|| o| suos|an||a| cons|||u||ona| chanes.
1he new|y es|ao||shed po||||ca| e|||es have manaed |o overcome |he oos|ac|es o|
AU
|he o|d po||||ca| sys|em, wh|ch was oased on par||cu|ar e|hn|c |n|eres|s, and |o cre-
a|e a new s|ruc|ure, w||h a c|ear soc|o-econom|c po||cy |ha| serves |he |n|eres|s o|
a|| c|||zens o| |he s|a|e and has es|ao||shed pro|ec||on mechan|sms |o ensure |he
respec| o| |he r|h|s o| d|||eren| roups.
1230& 9%> =22/S
lunclional
decenlralised slale
WB
Year aller year, lhe silua-
lion in 8osnia worsened. The counlry's
economy was al an all lime low. Unem-
ploymenl, decay ol lhe syslem ol social
proleclion and all-round poverly caused
massive social unresls. The dyslunclional
polilical syslem proved lo be a major
obslacle in lhe process ol Luro-Allanlic
inlegralion. Due lo lhe lack ol slabilily
and legal uncerlainly, no loreign direcl
inveslmenl could be allracled lor lhe
developmenl ol lhe huge hydropower
polenlial ol lhe counlry. Nalionalislic
rheloric, chauvinism and hale luelled by
lhe discourse ol polilical parlies and lhe
media lriggered random acls ol inler-
elhnic violence designed lo shill allen-
lion lrom lhe delerioraling economy,
lhe lack ol developmenl slralegies and
slaggeringly high unemploymenl.
The second global economic and l-
nancial crisis ol 20!5 hil 8osnia and Her-
zegovina severely. The prices ol energy
on lhe global markel skyrockeled, re-
lecled by lhe energy cosls in lhe coun-
lry. Huge segmenls ol sociely could no
longer allord lo heal lheir homes and
look lo lhe slreels. 8y lhe end ol lhe
year, public budgels were emply and
lhe governmenl imposed new laxes in
an allempl lo mainlain lhe lunclioning
ol ils big and complex adminislralion.
All social compensalions lor demobil-
ised soldiers and lor casuallies ol war
were lerminaled, while incenlives lor ex-
porl-orienled companies were revoked.
Popular disconlenl was manilesled in a
growing opposilion lo lhe ruling elhno-
nalionalisl oligarchies, which were ac-
cused ol masking lhe dreadlul economic
and social condilions by luelling elhnic
conlicls. Trade unions and newly lound-
ed cilizens' alliances organised a series
ol slrikes all over lhe counlry.
To prevenl lhe deslabilisalion ol lhe
counlry, a nalional convenlion was con-
vened under lhe palronage ol lhe in-
lernalional communily. ll included rep-
resenlalives ol civil sociely, academia,
lrade unions and dillerenl social groups.
lls lask was lo amend lhe conslilulion
and elecl a lransilional governmenl. ln
lhis conlexl, lhe inlernalional communi-
ly ollered lnancial assislance and legal
experlise lo help lhe lransilional govern-
menl implemenl necessary relorms.
WV
A new slale slruclure was lormed,
comprising lhree levels ol governmenl.
The slale level was lo be comprised ol one
Presidenl, Vice-Presidenls, lhe bicameral
parliamenlary syslem, and lhe cenlral
governmenl. This governmenl was lo be
given jurisdiclion over lhe slale mililary
lorce, lhe single police lorce, inlernal se-
curily, monelary and lscal policy, energy
policy, nalural resources, loreign policy
and inlernalional relalions, as well as
higher educalion, lerliary medical care
lacililies and lhe communicalions sec-
lor. Special allenlion
was paid lo sus-
lainable develop-
menl and lhe
managemenl ol nalural resources wilh
lhe locus on hydropower and renew-
able energy. The equalily ol all people
was lo be ensured by lhe newly eslab-
lished Supreme Courl.
The mid-level ol governance was lo
be comprised ol lerrilorial unils wilh
lheir own adminislralion designed lo
work ellcienlly and wilhoul unneces-
sary cosls. The lerrilorial unils were lo
be eslablished according lo geographic,
inlraslruclural, economic and cullural
laclors, laking inlo consideralion lhe
elhnic dispersion ol populalion wher-
ever possible. All unils were lo be giv-
en mechanisms ol proleclion againsl
discriminalion, while also reinlorcing
inler-elhnic respecl and lhus prevenling
lhe lulure endangermenl ol any
elhnic, religious or
social groups. The
unils were lo be
linked lhrough
a series ol in-
l r a s l r uc l ur a l
dev el opmenl
programmes as
well as cross-
border coopera-
lion. These pro-
grams were lo
be lnanced by
granls and low-
inleresl developmenl
loans provided by lhe in-
lernalional communily in or-
WA
d e r
lo boosl
e m p l o y -
menl in lhe
produclive seclors.
The Council ol Terrilo-
rial Unils was lo be es-
lablished as a consulla-
live and planning body
lasked wilh proposing measures lor lhe
social and economic developmenl ol
lerrilorial unils lo lhe slale governmenl
and moniloring lheir implemenlalion.
The lhird, municipal level, coordinal-
ed by lhe Council ol Municipalilies, was
lo be given slrong compelences and
charged wilh meeling mosl ol cilizens'
needs by providing services pursuanl lo
lhe Luropean Charler ol Local Sell-Cov-
ernmenl, a body which is guided by lhe
principle ol subsidiarily.
The relorms, implemenled by lhe
lransilional governmenl as well as by
lhe new governmenl elecled in 20!8,
slabilised lhe counlry. Legislalion was
relormed in order lo remove adminis-
lralive barriers lor inveslmenls and lo
provide a heallhier climale lor SMLs, as
well as lo inlroduce lax reduclions and
subsidies lhal would increase employ-
menl rale, boosl exporls and improve
lhe counlry's economic ralings. The
achievemenl ol polilical, economic and
social slabilily causes a relaxalion in elh-
nic lensions and leads lo a higher level
ol social cohesion. These relorms led lo
LU candidale slalus lor 8osnia and Her-
zegovina in 2020 and ils accession lo
lhe LU in 2025.
Allhough lhe slruclure ol polilical
syslem in 2025 is slill complex, lhe plan-
ning, decision-making and implemenla-
lion processes are developing in a much
more lunclional and ellcienl way. This
resulls in posilive consequences lor lhe
8osnian-Herzegovinian economy and a
higher slandard ol living.
W^
|n |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erzeov|na |s a |unc||ona| cen|ra||sed s|a|e
and a memoer o| |he |uropean Un|on. 1he cen|ra||sed po||||ca| sys|em es|ao||shed
a||er |he v|o|en| con||c| and suosequen| |n|erna||ona| m||||ary |n|erven||on enao|ed
WC
s|mp|||ed dec|s|on-ma||n processes, wh|ch resu||ed |n po||||ca|, econom|c and jud|-
c|a| re|orms. |uman r|h|s |e|s|a||on |s oe|n |mp|emen|ed, |he economy |s on an
upward pa|h, unemp|oymen| ra|e |s |n dec||ne, and soc|a| cohes|on |s on |he |ncrease.
9%> H0%/0 I\.2(&&
lunclional
cenlralised slale
WY
Year aller year, lhe silualion
in 8osnia was worsening. 8y 20!5, lhe
counlry's economy reached an all-lime
low. Unemploymenl, lhe decay ol lhe
syslem ol social proleclion and all-round
poverly caused massive social unresl.
The dyslunclional and complicaled po-
lilical syslem proved lo be a major ob-
slacle in lhe process ol Luro-Allanlic
inlegralion. Aller lhe 20!0 Lleclions,
and an exlremely long delay in lorming
lhe slale governmenl, lhe 20!4 Ceneral
Lleclions proved lo be an even larger di-
sasler in lerms ol building a slable polili-
cal coalilion al lhe enlily and slale level.
Nalionalislic rheloric, chauvinism and
hale luelled by lhe discourse ol polili-
cal parlies and lhe media, lriggered ran-
dom acls ol inler-elhnic violence which
were designed lo shill allenlion lrom
lhe delerioraling economy, lhe lack ol
developmenl slralegies and slaggering
unemploymenl.
ln 20!5, neighbouring Croalia was
already a lull-ledged member ol lhe
LU and Serbia was in lhe lnal phase ol
lhe candidacy process. However, due lo
lhe enlargemenl laligue wilhin lhe LU,
Serbia's accession was pul on hold. This
slirred disconlenl among ils cilizens and
broughl aboul lhe deslabilisalion ol lhe
polilical silualion in lhe counlry, exacer-
baled by demands lor more aulonomy in
Vojvodina and lhe Sandzak, and also be-
cause ol lhe slill unresolved Kosovo issue.
8y lhe end ol lhe year, polilical eliles
in 8iH were slill unable lo lorm a govern-
menl al lhe slale level, culminaling in
disconlenl. Al lhe same lime, lhe inler-
nalional communily pushed lor consli-
lulional changes lhal would slrenglhen
lhe slale compelences, bul which was
unacceplable lor lhe parlies in Pepublika
Srpska. The polilicians lrom PS argued
lhal lhe slalemale prevenled economic
developmenl and undermined polilical
slabilily lhal inluenced bolh lhe slale
and lhe lwo enlilies. There was no com-
mon slale level economic slralegy, while
lscal policies were causing disconlenl,
especially regarding lhe dislribulion ol
laxes and lunds lrom lhe slale level lo-
wards lhe enlilies and 8rcko Dislricl. The
PS polilicians presenled lhis as yel an-
olher reason why, in lheir view, il was
impossible lor 8iH lo be mainlained as
a slale. Therelore, lhey decided lo hold
relerendum on lhe secession ol lhe PS
lrom 8osnia and Herzegovina. Peaclions
lrom lhe lederalion were massive and
volalile, lhe relerendum being perceived
as a proclamalion ol war.
ln lhe beginning ol 20!6, all lhree
elhnic groups were mobilizing, luelled
by rapid increase in elhnic lensions
and hoslile and openly aggressive pub-
lic discourse which was supporled and
enlorced by lhe media. lrequenl al-
lacks on relurnees in bolh enlilies, lhe
lorming ol paramililary groups and lhe
breakoul ol armed conlicls lhrealened
lo escalale inlo a civil war. The escalal-
ing violence prompled NATO lo launch
a mililary inlervenlion. The swill reac-
lion ol lhe inlernalional communily was
an expression ol lhe lessons learned
lrom lhe pasl mislakes, especially
lhose commilled in 8osnia and
Herzegovina in lhe !992 !995
period. The objeclive ol lhis mis-
sion was nol only lo pacily lhe
conlicl, bul also lo lnally slabi-
lize lhe silualion in lhe region
by crealing a lunclional slale
lramework. Aller years ol
dealing wilh numerous insli-
lulions and represenlalives
al !4 dillerenl governance
levels, lhe LU and lhe resl
ol lhe inlerna-
l i onal
communily pushed lor a cenlralized
slale in order lo make communicalion
and cooperalion wilh lhe aulhorilies
easier, lasler and more ellcienl. Serbia
lrmly opposed lhe inlervenlion claiming
lhal lhe inleresls ol Serbs in 8iH were
endangered. However, aller slrong po-
lilical pressure by lhe inlernalional com-
munily il renounced ils opposilion.
The goal ol lhis mission was nol only
lo pacily lhe conlicl, bul also lo dis-
empower lhe eslablished elhnic polili-
cal eliles, mosl ol lhem in power since
warlime. lollowing lhe pacilcalion in
lhe leld, lhe inlernalional communily
convoked a nalional convenlion, com-
prising lhe represenlalives ol civil soci-
ely, academia, lrade unions and olher
social groups, was lormed lo amend
WQ
WT
lhe conslilulion and elecl a lransilional
governmenl.
Pressure was exerled on polilicians
lo adopl a conslilulion delning 8osnia
and Herzegovina as a cenlralised slale
wilh in-buill mechanisms lor lhe pro-
leclion againsl any kind ol discrimina-
lion. The new Conslilulion, adopled by
lhe end ol 20!6, delned all lhe people
in 8osnia and Herzegovina as cilizens
wilh equal righls and individual lree-
doms and a polilical syslem designed
lo comprise one Presidenl, one slrong
cenlral governmenl, a bicameral parlia-
menl and municipalilies. Moreover, new
eleclion legislalion
was inlroduced lo
prolecl elhnic and
minorily righls by
using lhe principle
ol mandale rola-
lion al all levels
ol gover-
nance be-
lween lhe
lhree larg-
esl elhnic
groups and
Olhers. Any
lulure possibil-
ily ol blocking
lhe lunclioning
ol lhe slale and
resorling lo elec-
lion rigging was
prevenled.
The 20!7 Ceneral Lleclions produced
new polilical eliles, which emerged in
lhe one-year period ol lranslional gov-
ernmenl as a resull ol inlensive lobby-
ing ol lhe inlernalional aclors presenl in
8iH sociely. The inlernalional commu-
nily developed an economic plan similar
lo lhe lamous "Marshall Plan", boosl-
ing inlraslruclure, employmenl and
economy. This resulled in a relaxalion
ol elhnic lensions due lo subslanlial im-
provemenl ol lhe qualily ol lile and lhe
slandard ol living lor 8iH cilizens. The
new slale slruclure enabled lhe crealion
ol a uniled and slrong economic policy
and a suslainable developmenl slralegy,
which, in combinalion wilh a sel ol legal
relorms, crealed a slable climale lor lor-
eign direcl inveslmenls. The reduclion ol
lhe heavy adminislralion made possible
subslanlial subsidies and supporl pro-
grams lor local companies, which was
relecled in slable and sleady growlh
ol lhe local economy, very much lo lhe
salislaclion ol 8iH cilizens and lhe inler-
nalional communily alike. Pegional co-
operalion was lurlher improved and lhe
counlry was making signilcanl progress
lowards Luro-Allanlic inlegralion wilh
lhe help ol ils neighbours Croalia and
Serbia now bolh members ol lhe LU.
8iH was granled candidale slalus
lor LU accession in 20!9 and became a
member in January ol 2025. A slable po-
lilical and social environmenl in lhe coun-
lry posilively inluenced lhe enlire region.
^B
|n |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erzeov|na |s par| o| |he |U |oe|her w||h
5ero|a, Croa||a, |on|enero, |acedon|a and rosovo. As a resu||, a new po||||ca|
parad|m has oeen crea|ed and par||||on a|on na||ona| or e|hn|c ||nes has oecome
|u|||e. 3u|, oe|ore |he |e|on came |o |ha| po|n| o| |n|era||on, || wen| |hrouh a
decade-|on process o| reconnec||on |ha| was dr|ven oy severa| |mpor|an| mo||va-
||ona| e|emen|s. econom|c- |n|erdependence, mu|ua| spor| and cu||ura| va|ues, a
common |U memoersh|p perspec||ve, no |anuae oarr|er, cu||ura| re|ona||sa||on,
e|c. |ecades o| po||||ca| s|a|ema|e, econom|c and |sca| cr|ses |ha| dra|ned soc|a|
^V
we||are prorammes |n each and every coun|ry, s|r|pped o|| na||ona||s||c |deo|o|es
and showed |o |he |u|| ex|en| |he|r |on-|erm des|ruc||ve po|en||a|. 5|nce |hose |de-
o|o|es were no| ao|e |o o||er any|h|n new, ou| |he same o|d man|ra o| e|hn|c d|v|-
s|on, so||, o|ood and h|s|or|ca| memor|es, peop|e had |ncremen|a||y s|ar|ed |o see|
|or an a||erna||ve. |ore sooer and prama||c |orces |hus o| |he|r chance. |e|ona|
reconnec||on had oecome a modus operand| |ha| emoraces |he connec||ons ra|her
|han d|sconnec||on po|n|s.
](&4(20 93$M30 704(2 F%4+
Pegional reconnecion
As lhey had neilher lhe op-
porlunily, nor lhe capacily, lo cope wilh
big Luropean corporalions on lheir ler-
rain, major companies in lhe Weslern
8alkan counlries were pushing lor clos-
er economic cooperalion among lheir
counlries in order lo improve poor inlra-
slruclure lhal posed heavy obslacles lo
lheir expansion. 8ecause ol lhe supporl
ol lhe media conlrolled by economic
oligarchs, and due lo ongoing social
unresl, new polilical parlies and lead-
ers who came lo power on lhe wave ol
an ideological paradigm shill, embraced
economic inlerdependence as a work-
ing plallorm. They decided lo
upgrade lhe economic environmenl and
inslead ol playing lhe irralional card ol
elhnic division, slarled playing lhe card
ol regional prelerences and economic
inleresls. lurlhermore, by lhal lime all
war criminals in lhe 8alkans had been
proseculed and inler-elhnic lensions
came lo resl. A wide-spread campaign
lor reconcilialion under lhe slogan "Nev-
er again war!" look place in lhe whole
region, accompanied by numerous cul-
lural and sporl exchange programs. The
exisling regional slruclures, such as lhe
"Cenlral Luropean lree Trade Agree-
menl" (CLlTA)
^A
^W
and lhe "Pegional Cooperalion
Council"(PCC), lhe laller's headquarlers
based in Sarajevo, were being used as a
plallorm lor regional reconneclion wilh
lhe overarching goal lo beller prepare
lhe counlries use ol lhe LU's slruclural
and cohesion lunds. This coincided wilh
lhe inlenlions ol lhe LU lo creale a com-
mon economic space al ils Soulh Lasl-
ern border as a kind ol "wailing room"
lor LU membership.
ln a series ol meelings, regional lead-
ers and LU represenlalives prepared lhe
ground lor lhe lulure. The "Weslern
8alkan Lconomic Union" (W8LU) oll-
cially came inlo exislence al a regional
summil held in Sarajevo in 20!7. The
8osnia-Herzegovinian capilal was cho-
sen nol only as lhe headquarlers ol lhe
PCC, bul also because 8iH is lhe geo-
graphical hearl ol lhe region and lorms
a kind ol "micro-sphere" ol lhe cullural-
elhnic-religious make-up ol lhe region.
W8LU was nol inlended lo be a slale
or conlederalion per se, bul ralher lo
serve as an economically-driven inlegra-
lion wilhin lhe given LU mechanisms.
Lach and every counlry in W8LU was lo
remain lully independenl wilh a lrm in-
dividual perspeclive lor LU membership.
W8LU was lo replace neilher lhe LU as
a common goal, nor lo presuppose lhal
all lhe counlries involved should give
up lheir conslilulional lrameworks, in-
slilulional sellings and sovereignly. The
crealion ol W8LU was nol meanl lo lead
lo a new Yugoslavia, bul ralher as an in-
legralion hall-slep lowards lhe LU. The
LU served as a kind ol model. Luropean
inlegralion slarled aller World War ll al
a very modesl level, wilh lhe eslablish-
menl ol lhe "Luropean Communily ol
Coal and Sleel", and ils main philosophy
was economic inlegralion up lo such a
level lhal war among ils members would
no longer be possible. There were no
emolional issues al slake, bul ralher so-
ber economic inleresls.
8y 2020, economic issues had be-
come lhe main lopic, while elhnic and
nalional leelings losl lheir imporlance
as lhe process ol cooperalion inlensi-
led. Heavy inveslmenl in inlraslruclure
connecling lhe counlries ol lhe region
allowed lhe developmenl ol 8iH's huge
polenlial ol hydro-power and cross-bor-
der environmenlal cooperalion. This led
nol only lo beller economic prospecls
by enhancing regional lrade, bul lo an
increased leeling ol shared cullural heri-
lage and idenlily in a union ol around
20 million people lhal speak lhe same
language and share lhe same cullural
and media space. The promolion ol
common economic inleresls led lo bel-
ler use ol lhe LU cohesion and slruclural
lunds, as well as lo joinl rural and ag-
ricullural developmenl projecls. The re-
conneclion ol inlraslruclure culminaled
in lhe eslablishmenl ol a regional railway
company. Joinl business and somelimes
^^
even diplomalic represenlalions ol lhe
W8LU were opened around lhe world,
allhough lhere was no cenlral govern-
menl lor lhe Union, bul ralher, like in
lhe case ol Cermany and lrance, a com-
mon inleresl and lhe need lor economic
solulions. 8iH also became a galeway lo
lhe Turkish and Arab markels.
Allogelher, lhe new regional pros-
pecls have crealed a new
polilical paradigm, while
nalional or elhnic parli-
lion in 8iH has become
worn oul. As a conse-
quence, lhe polilical
syslem in 8iH gradually
changed lowards a lunclional ledera-
lion wilhoul lhe elhno-velo mecha-
nisms lhal used lo be incorporaled in
every segmenl ol lhe decision-making
process. This helped lhe governmenl lo
be ellcienl and enabled il lo calch up
wilh lhe regional LU dynamics. ln 2025,
8iH - logelher wilh olher counlries lrom
lhe Pegion - was already a member ol
lhe Luropean Union
^Y
|n |he year 202, 3osn|a and |erzeov|na no |oner ex|s|s |n ||s prev|ous
shape. 1he smou|der|n e|hn|c con||c|, wh|ch had |as|ed |or decades, cu|m|na|ed
|n |he d|sso|u||on o| 3|| |n|o |hree separa|e coun|r|es under |he pa|ronae o| |he
|n|erna||ona| commun||y |o preven| v|o|en| con||c|. 1hese new coun|r|es are now
^Q
|ocused on |he|r pa|h |owards |U |n|era||on |hrouh |n|erna| s|ruc|ura| chane.
1he econom|es |n |he new|y |ormed coun|r|es are deve|op|n due |o |he |n|ux o|
|ore|n d|rec| |nves|men|s and |n|erna||ona| a|d.
12%.324%4( 9/2)(2 123%0
Dissolulion
^T
The neighbouring counlries
ol 8iH - Croalia, Serbia, Monlenegro,
as well as Macedonia - join lhe Luro-
pean Union belween 20!3 and 2020,
having lulllled all requiremenls lor ac-
cession and solved lheir nalional issues.
8y lhis lime, 8iH has nol yel managed
lo solve ils elhnic queslion or lulllled
lhe requiremenls, and has lherelore
become isolaled in lhe new Luropean
neighbourhood. The necessary relorm
ol lhe slale slruclure has nol been pul
inlo ellecl, which has led lo lhe exlen-
sion and aggravalion ol problems which
have relarded lhe counlry lor more lhan
lwo decades. an overly lragile slale level
versus enlilies which are behaving more
and more aulonomously, lhe slale's pro-
gressive elhnic divisions in all lorms ol
civic lile, especially in lhe economy and
media. 20 years aller lhe war, lhe de-
mographic slruclure ol lhe counlry is
slill very dillerenl lrom lhe pre-war pe-
riod (!99!). Pelugees have nol relurned
lo lheir pre-war homes. Displaced per-
sons have sellled and organised lheir
lives in lheir respeclive enlilies or olher
counlries lhroughoul lhe world, lhus ce-
menling lhe resulls ol elhnic cleansing.
Lleclion resulls over lhe pasl years have
also manilesled lhe elhnic divisions in
lhe counlry. As a resull ol lhe segre-
galed educalional syslem, lhe posl-war
generalion slrongly idenlily wilh lheir
respeclive communilies. Allempls lo en-
courage inlerelhnic relalions have lailed.
Decision-makers have advocaled lhal
elhnic segregalion is complelely normal
and lhal il is nalural lo live one beside
lhe olher and nol one wilh lhe olher.
Peligious inluence has become more
presenl in all segmenls ol lile, especially
in polilics and lhe educalional syslem.
The slagnaling condilions and well-
eslablished corruplion al all levels and
lunclions ol lhe slale have kepl lhe
populalion in deep poverly, wilh in-
creasing lack ol prospecls and increasing
desperalion. As lhese lrends conlinue,
lhe polilical eliles have locused increas-
ingly on elhnic issues, wilh lhe aim ol
dislracling cilizens lrom lhe exacerbal-
ing economic and social crisis. The divid-
ed media supporl lheir respeclive enlily
policies by reporling in a biased and pro-
pagandislic way. While Pepublika Srp-
ska has achieved a relalively lunclional
^U
level ol adminislralion, bolh lhe overall
slale level and lhe lederalion ol 8iH
have become increasingly dyslunclion-
al, wilh public inslilulions inlaled lo
provide public lunclions lor more and
more people. This has resulled in huge
bureaucracy and reduced lhe ellciency
ol lhe public seclor, providing an ideal
environmenl lor nepolism, polilical la-
vourilism and olher lorms ol corruplion.
As ol 20!0, lhe presence ol lhe in-
lernalional communily was reinlorced,
il slarled lo re-deploy lormer ollcials
who had worked in lhe Weslern 8alkans
in lhe !990s, clearly seeing cerlain risks
developing in lhe near-lailed slale ol
8iH.
The lerms delned by lhe Daylon
Peace Agreemenl slill had lo be super-
vised by lhe inlernalional communily,
lhe Special Pepresenlalive ol lhe Lu-
ropean Union was slill presenl
in 8iH, slruggling lo keep lhe
counlry uniled. 8olh lhe LU
and lhe resl ol lhe inlernalional
communily had no clear slral-
egy lor mainlaining 8osnia and
Herzegovina as a uniled slale,
and showed, inslead, an
inconsislenl and ollen
counlerproduclive ap-
proach lo regulale
developmenls in lhe
counlry.
Aller lhe lasl wave ol enlargemenl
and lhe big lnancial crisis in 20!5, lhe
Luropean Union showed greal concern
lor slabilising lhe lasl lroublesome spol
in lhe region. 8olh lhe inlernalional
communily and local communilies wilh-
in 8osnia and Herzegovina saw peacelul
dissolulion, as was achieved in some olh-
er counlries, as lhe only possible oplion.
8osniak polilical represenlalives and lhe
majorily ol 8osniak people became in-
creasingly lruslraled wilh lhe conslanlly
lailing ellorls lo keep lhe counlry in-
legraled and came lo lerms wilh lhe
lacl lhal lwo oul ol lhe lhree elhnici-
lies could nol idenlily wilh lhe slale ol
8osnia and Herzegovina. ln lhe lasl lew
years a consensus was reached among
Luropean Union, Uniled Slales,
Pussia and Tur-
key lo
CB
iniliale a dissolulion process. The oul-
come ol inlensive diplomalic aclions
was lhe "Daylon 2" Conlerence held
in 2022 lhal resulled in a dissolulion
agreemenl signed by lhe leaders ol lhe
lhree consliluenl peoples and supporl-
ed by lhe neighbouring counlries lhal
were already members ol NATO and lhe
Luropean Union.
However, a parl ol lhe 8osniak pop-
ulalion was opposed lo lhe agreemenl
and expressed lheir disappoinlmenl
lhrough violenl aclion.
Neverlheless, lhree new counlries
were born, moslly lollowing lhe borders
ol Pepublika Srpska and lwo groups ol
canlons, one wilh a 8osniak and lhe
olher wilh a Croal majorily. Some lerri-
lorial changes were made including lhe
solulion ol lhe slalus ol 8rcko Dislricl lo
enable lheir lerrilorial unily. Srebrenica
was declared an exlralerrilorial dislricl
wilh lhe slalus ol 'memorial cenlre'.
The new 8osnian slale mainlained lhe
legal conlinuily ol lhe previous coun-
lry, including all diplomalic missions
abroad and ils seal in lhe Uniled Na-
lions. Along wilh lhis process a donor
conlerence and wide lundraising ac-
lions were organised lo lnancially
supporl lhe slabilisalion ol lhe
new slales and lo prevenl
polenlial radicalism. Turkey
and some Arab counlries
were inlensively involved in economic
inveslmenls.
The inlernalional communily re-
mained aclively presenl in lhe lhree new
slales, including a mililary presence lo
calm unresl and prevenl lhe use ol lhe
dissolulion ol 8iH as a prelexl lor lerror-
isl allacks.
ln 2025, lhe inlernalional communi-
ly and parlicularly lhe LU are involved in
diplomalic endeavours lo keep all lhree
counlries on lhe road lo LU inlegralion.
lurlhermore, il is lhe inlernalional com-
munily's lask lo ensure lhe proleclion ol
human righls, parlicularly wilh regards
lo lhe presence ol newly lormed minori-
lies in lhe new elhnic slales, lhe resull
ol lhe redrawing ol borders in some
parls ol whal was once 8iH.
Having resolved elhnic issues, na-
lional leaders in lhe lhree newly eslab-
lished slales and lhe inlernalional com-
munily are locused on slale building
and regional economic inlegralion, lhus
opening lhe palh lowards complying
wilh lhe condilions lo join lhe LU.
CW
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V
! Copyrighl Winlried Veil.
|n |he anc|en| days o| o|d
|here once ex|s|ed a power|u| ||n-
dom ca||ed |yd|a, ru|ed oy r|n Croesus
whose name |s |||| |oday synonymous
w||h |mmense |or|une. A| |he eas|ern
oorder o| |yd|a |ay |he emer|n pow-
er o| |ers|a under r|n Cyrus. Croesus
wan|ed |o a||ac| |ers|a oe|ore || oe-
came s|roner |han h|s own emp|re. 3u|
|o||ow|n |he ae o|d |rad|||on, he |rs|
sen| messeners |o |he |amous orac|e o|
|e|ph|, as||n whe|her or no| he shou|d
a||ac| |ers|a. 1he orac|es answer was.
|| you a||ac| |ers|a, you w||| des|roy a
rea| ||ndom. Croesus |hen a||ac|ed
|ers|a, ou| |os| and h|s own emp|re was
des|royed.
This slory demonslrales lhe essence
and uselulness ol scenarios. Like lhe an-
cienl oracles, scenarios do nol give cer-
lain prediclions ol lhe lulure bul ralher
oller dillerenl piclures ol possible lu-
lures, lhereby enabling decision-makers
and slakeholders lo adapl lheir slrale-
gies in order lo reach or avoid a cerlain
scenario. Had Croesus beller responded
lo lhe oracle's answer, he mighl nol
have allacked Persia bul inslead lrsl
measured lhe mililary powers ol lhe lwo
empires and lhen looked lor possible al-
lies lo ensure his superiorily. His main
mislake was lo mix up lhe oracle's an-
swer wilh his own wishlul lhinking.
Like oracles, scenarios do nol give
a blueprinl lor decision-makers how lo
acl, bul lhey give a message lrom which
lhe recipienls can draw lheir conclusions.
This is whal happened wilh lhe lamous
Monl lleur scenarios in Soulh Alrica in
lhe early ninelies ol lhe lasl cenlury, in
which l had lhe privilege lo parlicipale.
Almosl lwenly years laler, lhe long lerm
lnance minisler and main archilecl ol
Soulh Alrica's economic policy, Trevor
Manuel, said ol lhis scenario exercise.
"l could close my eyes and give you
lhose scenarios like lhis. l've inlernal-
ized lhem and il you have inlernalized
somelhing lhen you carry il wilh you lor
lile". Why had Manuel inlernalised lhe
CY
Monl lleur scenarios? 8ecause lhey had
a big impacl on lhe direclion ol lhe eco-
nomic policy lhe new ANC-led govern-
menl was carrying oul, and because lhis
governmenl unlike Croesus did nol
mix up ils wishlul lhinking wilh lhe sce-
narios' messages. ll wishlul lhinking had
prevailed, lhe new governmenl would
have carried oul a populisl economic
policy wilh huge slale expendilures
bul wilh dire long lerm consequences,
clearly shown in one ol lhe scenarios. ln-
slead, lhe governmenl opled lor anolh-
er scenario, in which lhe governmenl's
policies were suslainable and where lhe
counlry look a palh ol inclusive growlh
and democracy.
The opposile was lhe case wilh an-
olher scenario exercise l experienced
in lsrael in lhe years !999-2000, called
"lsrael 2025 Scenarios ol lulure devel-
opmenls". Due lo lhe unslable inlernal
silualion where minorily parlies could
block any polilical decision, a business-
as-usual policy has prevailed since lhen
despile lhe lacl lhal lhe scenarios clear-
ly demonslraled lhe disaslrous conse-
quences ol such a policy and lhal lhe
scenarios had been presenled lo major
decision makers ol almosl all polilical
camps. Only len years laler, lar lrom
2025, lhese consequences are already
visible wilh some ol lhe worsl scenarios
becoming more and more probable.
Or||ns o| and reasons |or scenar|o
ou||d|n
Scenarios were originally developed
aller World War ll lor mililary purposes
in order lo prepare lhe armed lorces lor
unprediclable and unloreseeable evenls.
ln lhe early sevenlies ol lhe lasl cenlury,
in lhe lace ol increasing uncerlainly and
complexily, privale companies slarled
working wilh scenarios and developed
lheir own melhodologies, lhe mosl la-
mous ol which is lhe mullinalional Shell
Oil company's scenario approach. Laler,
governmenl agencies, non-governmen-
lal organizalions, loundalions and aca-
demia also recognised lhe uselulness ol
scenario planning in order lo assess po-
lilical, socielal and global developmenls,
in addilion lo lhe hilherlo prevailing
mililary and business inleresls. Already
in !972, lhe "Club ol Pome" had pub-
lished ils lamous sludy on lhe "Limils ol
Crowlh", lhereby using a kind ol early
scenario approach. This sludy had a greal
impacl on lhe unlolding debale aboul
ecological issues and on lhe lormalion
ol lhe ecological movemenl worldwide.
This is anolher example ol how scenario
planning can inluence nol only govern-
menl aclion bul also conlribule lo public
debale and even promole lhe lormalion
ol civil sociely and polilical movemenls
("green parlies").
The lollowing remarks draw main-
ly lrom my personal experience wilh
CQ
scenario planning in dillerenl counlries
and conlinenls, bul also lrom some ol
lhe mosl inluenlial scenario planning
melhods and inslilulions, like Shell,
Clobal 8usiness Nelwork and z-punkl, as
well as lrom aulhors like Peler Schwarlz
and Lemperl el.al. (See bibliography).
The slarling poinl lor scenario plan-
ning is lhe lollowing slalemenl by John
Maynard Keynes, lhe lamous economisl
and one ol lhe lounding lalhers ol lhe
lnlernalional Monelary lund aller World
War ll. "We simply do nol know". Whal
Keynes meanl, is lhal nobody can lore-
see lhe lulure even il applying lhe mosl
sophislicaled compuler programs. lor a
long lime, "lorecasling" has been and
parlially is slill loday, an inslrumenl lhal
lries lo predicl lulure developmenls. Such
melhods and lechniques like Delphi, lore-
sighl or Trend Lxploralion all derive lrom
lhe pasl and allempl lo describe how lhe
key laclors and wilh lhem lhe whole sel-
ling will develop in lhe lulure. The obvi-
ous disadvanlages ol lhese melhods are
a limiled lime horizon and lhe disregard
lor disconlinuilies (also called crilical un-
cerlainlies). Therelore, all ol lhese ap-
proaches lnd lheir slrenglhs lempered
by lheir inabilily lo conlronl lhe challenge
ol mulliple plausible lulures. This has lo
do wilh human weakness, which lends
lo overeslimale lhe exisling silualion
and lo lhink lhal lhings will conlinue in
lhe lulure as lhey are now. "laced wilh
masses ol dala, humans ollen recognize
desirable lrends where none exisl or ig-
nore unwanled bul real pallerns. Hu-
mans are noloriously bad al eslimaling
likelihoods because lhey greally overesli-
male lheir conldence in lhe course ol lu-
lure evenls and simullaneously hold be-
liels lhal violale basic laws ol probabilily.
Human biases, coupled wilh an inabilily
lo lrack lhe implicalions ol long causal
chains, may skew judgmenls in ways nol
easily recognized" (Lemperl el al, p. 25).
ln conlrasl, scenario-based planning
is designed precisely lo grapple wilh lhis
mulliplicily and unprediclabilily. There-
lore lhey do nol oller lorecasls nor do
lhey deliver slralegies. lnslead lhey oller
piclures ol possible lulures, which allow
decision makers lo lake measures in or-
der lo avoid undesirable developmenls
and/or lo conlribule lo a desirable envi-
ronmenl. "Scenarios are a lool lor help-
ing us lo lake a long view in a world ol
greal uncerlainly. They are slories aboul
lhe way lhe world mighl lurn oul lomor-
row, slories lhal can help us recognize
and adapl lo changing aspecls ol our
presenl environmenl. Scenario planning
is aboul making choices loday wilh an
underslanding ol how lhey mighl lurn
oul" (Schwarlz, p. 3).
5cenar|o p|ann|n me|hodo|oy
Scenario building is an arl, nol a
science. ll does nol use quanlilalive
CT
melhods bul is a qualilalive approach,
based on inluilion, crealivily, courage
and unorlhodox lhinking. Al lhe same
lime il is leam work whereby lhe pro-
cess (ol scenario building) is almosl as
imporlanl as lhe resulls (i.e. lhe sce-
narios). This can clearly be seen by lhe
example ol lhe Monl lleur Scenarios,
which nol only inluenced governmenl
orienlalion bul also led lo a grealer un-
derslanding amongsl rival and even hos-
lile posilions ol lhe leam members (ANC
vs. while minorily represenlalives) which
laler lurned oul lo have a posilive im-
pacl on lhe peacelul oulcome ol lhe ne-
golialions. The same is lrue lor lhe lsrael
scenarios where peace aclivisls, Jewish
selllers and represenlalives ol lhe Arab
minorily more lhen once clashed during
lhe scenario building process bul laler
agreed on lhe lour scenarios and buill
lrusl among lhemselves albeil wilh no
avail concerning lhe polilical silualion.
Lven on a less emolional global issue il
was hard lor some leam members ol lhe
Ceneva scenarios on global economic
governance, which l direcled in lhe years
2008/09, lo agree wilh all lour scenarios
and lhere were almosl emolional discus-
sions aboul a ralher sober issue.
These examples show how impor-
lanl lhe scenario leam and ils composi-
lion are lor lhe oulcome ol a scenario
planning process, bul also how such a
process can inluence and change slalled
posilions and longslanding prejudices. A
scenario leam should relecl lhe diller-
enl polilical, social, demographic, gen-
der, educalional and prolessional slrala
ol a counlry or region and also include
exlernal experlise. However, lhe number
ol parlicipanls should nol exceed more
lhan 20-25 people. The reason lor lhis
is lhal everybody should have "a voice"
and enough lime lo arliculale himsell or
hersell, and also because scenario build-
ing workshops are "working sessions"
and nol classical seminars. They are
democralic exercises ("round lables"),
where no hierarchy exisls and where
every parlicipanl has lhe same impor-
lance. There is no separalion belween
"speakers" and "public" and lhere are
no leclures or long debales belween lhe
parlicipanls.
As scenarios are a "colleclive prod-
ucl", lhe leam as a whole musl iden-
lily wilh lhem. However, lhere need nol
be consensus bul ralher respecl lor lhe
posilion ol lhe olhers. Scenarios have
always lo be pul inlo queslion, quile
nalurally, lhey cannol be complele nor
relecl all lhe values and perspeclives ol
leam members wilh lheir dillerenl back-
grounds. Scenarios should nol look loo
"polished", on lhe conlrary, lhey have
lo be considered as a success il lhey call
lor lurlher discussion and lhey have lo
be lesled consequenlly lor consislency
and plausibilily. Some parlies lo lhe ex-
ercise may regard cerlain scenarios as
exceedingly unlikely and undesirable,
CU
bul no one should be able lo prove any
scenario impossible.
The queslion ol how many scenari-
os should be buill cannol be answered
in a general manner, lhis depends on
lhe subjecl maller. However, lhere
should nol be loo many scenarios and
one should avoid looking al lhem sim-
plislically as "posilive", "negalive" or
"mainslream". This would have more lo
do wilh wishlul lhinking lhan wilh se-
rious scenario building and one should
always bear in mind lhal nol everylhing
is posilive or negalive lor everybody in
lhe same way. An inleresling example
lrom lileralure in lhis respecl is "The Al-
exandria Quarlel", a colleclion ol lour
novels wrillen by Lawrence Durrell. Lach
novel deals wilh lhe same subjecl bul
lrom lhe perspeclive ol lour dillerenl
people closely connecled lo each olher.
The resull is lour dillerenl "scenarios"
lor lhe same selling wilh dillerenl views
a lilerary example lor how people look
al lhe same issue lhrough lheir own
glasses.
1he |hree p|||ars o| scenar|o ou||d|n
As explained above, lhere are a num-
ber ol scenario building approaches,
which in general diller only slighlly. ln
my opinion, lhe mosl consislenl and
proven melhodology, which has been
applied in all my scenario exercises, is
Shell's approach "exploring lhe lulure".
Shell was one ol lhe lrsl mullinalional
companies lo conducl scenario planning
in a syslemalic way and laler lo expand
il lrom narrow business views lowards a
more general view under lhe lille "Peo-
ple and Conneclions. Clobal Scenarios
lo 2020". This means lhal Shell recog-
nised in an early slage, lhal business in-
leresls cannol be looked al wilhoul lak-
ing inlo accounl lhe polilical, social and
ecological environmenl. The Monl lleur
scenarios, lor example, were conducled
by Adam Kahane, al lhal lime lhe head
ol Shell's scenario leam who during lhis
exercise recognised lhe imporlance ol
polilical and cullural issues and who
laler became an inlernalional organ-
iser, designer and lacililalor ol scenario
projecls on issues like lhe peace process
in Cualemala, unblocking a polilical
slalemale in lhe Philippines or dealing
wilh widening cullural and ideological
schisms in lsrael. He is also lhe aulhor
ol several beslselling books on scenario
planning.
To pul il simply, lhe Shell scenarios
lollow lhree sleps. orienlalion, building
and allrmalion. These lhree pillars ol
scenario planning are usually lhe lhemes
ol lhree workshops, each ol which deals
wilh one ol lhese issues. Or|en|a||on
means, lrsl, idenlilying lhe issue al
slake (which sounds easier lhan il is),
second, laking inlo accounl lhe presenl
silualion, lhe underlying assumplions
YB
every parlicipanl holds and learning
more aboul lhe challenges a counlry/
region/organisalion laces, and lhird, ex-
ploring lhe many "driving lorces" lhal
could shape lhe lulure. 8y driving lorces
we mean "agenls" ol change lhal in-
luence lulure developmenls in eilher
a prediclable or unprediclable way (lhe
laller also called "crilical uncerlainlies").
3u||d|n means lelling "slories" by lhe
members ol lhe scenario leam or creal-
ing headlines ol newspapers in lhe lime
horizon we are dealing wilh. lrom lhese
slories, we can usually "clusler" oul-
lines ol whal will laler become scenarios
and which will be elaboraled in work-
ing groups. A||rma||on means lesling
lhe scenario oullines, mainly regarding
plausibilily and consislency, gelling lhe
allrmalion by lhe whole scenario leam
and lhen wriling lhe aclual scenarios.
Or|en|a||on. lhe lrsl slep in lhis
phase is idenlilying lhe issue al slake.
This issue is more imporlanl lhan one
mighl lhink. ll you pul lhe queslion loo
generally, you mighl have dillcullies,
ending up wilh plausible and consislenl
scenarios. ll you pul il loo narrowly, you
mighl overlook imporlanl laclors and
issues, which could also severely limil
lhe consislency and plausibilily ol lhe
scenarios. To give lwo examples. il you
look al lhe lulure ol Swiss agricullure in
lhe coming len years in a general way,
you mighl end up wil lhe lollowing sce-
nario. "Swiss agricullure will conlinue
lo exisl, agricullural surlace will dimin-
ish and biological agricullure will slighlly
increase". This scenario is nol very help-
lul lor decision makers. Or, lor example,
when you are looking al lhe lulure ol a
business cenlre in a conlerence holel in
lhe nexl len years, you should nol lor-
gel lo look al lhe lulure ol lhe holel in
general, because nobody will slay in a
holel jusl because ol lhe business cen-
lre (examples laken lrom Wilms, p. 7!).
ln lhe second slep we look al lhe pres-
enl silualion and how every leam mem-
ber sees il. Allhough scenarios painl a
piclure ol lile in lhe lulure, lhey musl
be rooled in whal is happening in lhe
presenl. They musl show a sequence ol
evenls, decisions, alliludes and aclions
lhal broughl us lo lhe lulure world be-
ing described in a given scenario. This
has nolhing lo do wilh exlrapolaling or
lorecasling, bul ralher il lakes inlo ac-
counl lrom our slarling-poinl lor build-
ing our scenarios, while al lhe same
lime clarilying lhe underlying assump-
lions ol every parlicipanl in lhe scenario
exercise and learning (lrom exlernal ex-
perls) aboul lhe major challenges lhe
idenliled issue laces. ln lhe lhird slep
we idenlily driving lorces, lhese are lac-
lors or developmenls lhal push a syslem
(aclors, inslilulions) in one or lhe olher
direclion. They "are elemenls lhal move
lhe plol ol a scenario, lhal delermine
lhe slory's oulcome" (Schwarlz, p. !07).
There are prediclable and unpredicl-
able driving lorces, lhe laller also called
YV
"crilical uncerlainlies", lhis means dis-
lurbing evenls or disconlinuilies lhal
could lead lo a radically changed envi-
ronmenl. They cannol be predicled, bul
lhey mighl happen and lherelore musl
be laken inlo accounl.
3u||d|n. Having idenliled lhe issue
al slake and lhe major driving lorces,
we can slarl wilh building lhe scenarios.
The lrsl slep involves members ol lhe
scenario leam lelling "slories" aboul
how lhey could imagine lhe lulure.
While lhese slories are nol yel scenarios,
lhey are a lrsl slep lowards elaboral-
ing lhem. A given number ol slories can
lhen be cluslered inlo dillerenl "blocs"
which laler may become real scenarios.
Anolher palhway lo crealing scenarios
is lo imagine lulure headlines ol news-
papers published al lhe lime horizon ol
lhe scenarios (lor example 2025). An
example lor lhis shorlened version ol
scenario building is lhe "8alkans Daily",
"published" in lhe year 20!5 as a resull
ol a scenario exercise conducled lrom
2004-2005 in lhe 8alkan region by lwo
inlernalionally operaling NCO's (CASlN
and Ml). 8ased on lhese cluslers, which
are usually already a kind ol scenario
oulline, several working groups elabo-
rale lhe aclual scenarios and presenl
lhem lo lhe whole leam.
A||rma||on. According lo mosl sce-
nario lechniques, a good scenario should
have lhe lollowing characlerislics.
! Plausibilily. lhis means lhal lhe
developmenls described musl be consi-
dered as possible which nol necessarily
means lhal lhey will happen. The lulure
palhs and piclures described in lhe sce-
nario musl be imaginable and should
nol be considered as impossible.
! Consislency. lhis means lhal lhe
lulure palhs and piclures in a given
scenario should be consislenl and sho-
uld nol conlradicl lhemselves in cerla-
in aspecls or even exclude lhemselves
complelely.
! Dillerenlialion. scenarios sho-
uld be clearly dislinguishable lrom
each olher. They musl oller allernali-
ve piclures ol lhe lulure in order lo be
comparable.
! Clearness. lhe developmenls and
piclures in a scenario should be easily
underslood. This means lhal lhey should
be sullcienlly delailed bul on lhe olher
hand lhey should nol combine loo many
driving lorces and crilical uncerlainlies.
! Transparency. scenarios always,
eilher implicilly or explicilly, embody
perceplions and judgmenls. ll should be
made clear how assumplions and opli-
ons (lor example lhe choice ol crilical
uncerlainlies) came aboul.
All lhis has lo be lesled by lhe mem-
bers ol lhe scenario leam and by exler-
nal experls. The lasl slep is wriling (and
in mosl cases rewriling several limes) lhe
lnal scenario version by lhe scenario di-
reclor and coordinalors.
YA
The scenario projecl on
"8osnia and Herzegovina 2025" lasled
lrom March 20!! lo November 20!!,
led by lhe lLS counlry direclor and his
coordinalors. The scenario projecl was
lacililaled by Dr. Winlried Veil, who
has longslanding experience in scenario
planning, e.g. lhe "Monl lleur" scenar-
ios in Soulh Alrica !99!-92, lhe "lsrael
2025" scenarios !999-2000 and "The
Ceneva Scenarios on Clobal Lconomic
Covernance 2020"2008-09. This coor-
dinalion leam managed lhe process and
guided lhe scenario leam. ll provided
lechnical inpuls and shaped lhe exercise.
ln lhe scenario building exercise we
applied lhe melhodological lramework
ol lhe 5he|| scenar|os. The scenario
building consisls ol lhree phases. ori-
enlalion, building and allrmalion. The
scenario building phase is described in
grealer delail below.
Orienlalion was accomplished al
a workshop in Vlasic lrom 7 9 April
20!!, where in lhe second parl lhe
building process was inilialed. The
workshop began wilh an inlroduclion lo
lhe melhodology and a "warming up"
amongsl lhe leam members.
V` :2%(0434%/0
a |ev|ew o| |he presen| s||ua||on
On lriday, April 8, we slarled lhe orien-
lalion phase wilh a review ol lhe presenl
silualion, as lhis would serve as a poinl ol
deparlure lo lhe lulure. The leam mem-
bers came up wilh a long lisl ol moslly
negalive laclors highlighling lhe presenl
dillcull silualion in 8osnia and Herzegov-
ina. We enlilled lhis lisl "Joinl in crisis", as
lhe inilial conclusion ol all lhe parlicipanls
regarding lhe silualion in 8osnia and
Herzegovina was lhal lhe counlry is in a
permanenl crisis and lhe slale is nol ell-
cienlly lunclioning. Lver since lhe counlry
gained sovereignly in !99!, immedialely
lollowed by lour years ol war, lhe crisis in
8osnia and Herzegovina was, and slill is,
a key allribule ol lhe polilical, social and
economic slale ol allairs.
The main elemenls ol lhe polilical
crisis idenliled by lhe leam were. lear
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ol endangermenl coming lrom olher
elhnic groups, prevalence ol lhe elhnic
principle, bad/non-exislenl inlerelhnic
relalions, elhnically segregaled curricula
in schools and universilies, lack ol cul-
lure ol compromise, delciency ol peace
building and reconcilialion, lack ol civic
cullure, big, coslly and inelleclive ad-
minislralion, elhnic-driven manipulalion
ol lhe people by polilical slakeholders,
and disagreemenl on lhe involvemenl ol
lhe inlernalional communily.
The main elemenls ol lhe economic
and social crisis idenliled by lhe leam
are. lack ol slralegy ol suslainable devel-
opmenl, lack ol suslainable managemenl
ol nalural resources, almosl 20 ol lhe
people living below lhe poverly line, high
unemploymenl rale ol aboul 44 , weak
social proleclion syslem and emply slale
collers, lawed privalisalion process lead-
ing lo moslly negalive economic develop-
menl, ageing sociely and brain drain, and
negalive loreign inveslmenl and capilal
lighl due lo red lape and legal uncerlainly.
The polilical, economic and social ele-
menls ol lhe on-going crisis are locked in
a downward spiral ol mulual causes and
ellecls. Simullaneous inlervenlion al all
lhree levels is needed lo reverse il. The
leam argued lhal il lhis silualion conlin-
ues lhe problems ol 8iH will be exacer-
baled and perhaps lead lo social unresl
and deepened conlicl and mighl even
endanger lhe exislence ol lhe slale.
o |den|||y|n dr|v|n |orces
Driving lorces are exlernal laclors
lhal have lhe polenlial lo push a syslem
in dillerenl direclions. They "are lhe ele-
menls lhal move lhe plol ol a scenario,
lhal delermine lhe slory's oulcome" (Pe-
ler Schwarlz).
The scenario leam idenliled lhe lol-
lowing seven driving lorces, which will
shape lhe lulure ol lhe counlry.
! Lconomy
! Demography
! Lducalion
! Media
! LU inlegralion
! Pegional slabilily
! lnlernalional communily
c |den|||y|n cr|||ca| uncer|a|n||es
Crilical uncerlainlies are dislurb-
ing evenls or disconlinuilies lhal could
lead lo a radically changed environmenl.
They cannol be predicled, bul lhey
mighl happen.
The scenario leam idenliled lhe lol-
lowing lour crilical uncerlainlies.
! Human calaslrophe in lhe Medi-
lerranean region
! Disagreemenl on NATO
membership
! Social unresl
! LU implosion/collapse
Y^
A` 9"%$)%06
a ||rs| phase. v|a`|c
Aller lnishing lhe orienlalion phase,
we immedialely slarled lhe building
phase. 8ased on lhe resulls ol lhe orienla-
lion phase, lhe leam members presenled
many shorl slories or "newspaper head-
lines" in lhe year 2025 lhal were clus-
lered by lhe coordinaling crew. The resull
were several very rough oullines ol pos-
sible scenarios, lhal laler were discussed
and lurlher elaboraled in working groups.
These scenario oullines were presenled by
lhe working groups lo lhe whole leam on
Salurday morning and lurlher discussed,
especially as regards lheir consislency,
plausibilily and logic. The scenario leam
agreed on 5 drall scenarios.
! lunclional decenlralised slale
! lunclional cenlralised slale
! Pegional economic inlegralion
! Slalus quo
! Peacelul dissolulion
These drall scenarios were lhen lur-
lher elaboraled and wrillen by lhe coordi-
naling crew immedialely aller lhe work-
shop. They were lhen senl lo all lhe leam
members in lime lor lhem lo be prepared
lor lhe second phase ol lhe building pro-
cess and lo commenl on lhe dralls.
o 5econd phase. Neum
The second phase ol lhe scenario
building look place during lhe lrsl parl
ol a second workshop in Neum lrom 2-4
June 20!!. The drall scenarios were lur-
lher elaboraled in working groups, laking
inlo accounl lhe commenls, amendmenls
and queslions by lhe leam members.
3. A!rmation
The lnalised scenarios were lhen pre-
senled in lhe second parl ol lhe workshop
lo lhe whole leam lor allrmalion. lour
scenarios were accepled unanimously.
! Pegional reconneclion
! lunclional decenlralized slale
! lunclional cenlralized slale
! Dissolulion
However, no consensus could be
reached on lhe "Slalus Quo" scenario.
A lhird meeling look place al Jaho-
rina 2-3 Seplember 20!!. Al lhis meel-
ing, lhe parlially revised lour scenarios
were lnally allrmed by lhe whole leam
and lhe illuslralions adopled. The work-
ing group on lhe "Slalus Quo" scenario
came up wilh a new version, which how-
ever slill had some weaknesses concern-
ing consislency and logical slruclure.
Al a lnal meeling in 8ernried/Cer-
many lrom !8-20 November 20!!, lhe
"Slalus Quo" scenario was revised and
approved by lhe group and lhan senl by
eleclronic mail lo lhe olher members ol
lhe scenario leam lor lnal allrmalion.
YC
8osnia and Herzegovina will
hosl lhe nexl Winler Olympic Cames in
2030. The decision was adopled yesler-
day and resulled in greal celebralions
across lhe counlry. ll represenls lhe
grealesl achievemenl ol lhe whole slale
ol 8osnia and Herzegovina aller lhe war
lhal ended 30 years ago. ll is, ol course,
lhe resull ol huge ellorls made in 8os-
nia and Herzegovina during lhe pasl len
years, and especially in lhe period since
lhe counlry became an LU member in
2020. Cilizens will lnally have a chance
lo show lhe world once again lhal lhey
are able lo hosl such a huge and impor-
lanl evenl, as well as lo demonslrale
lheir world-lamous hospilalily.
ll is expecled lhal !00,000 work po-
silions will be crealed due lo lhe need
lo building all lhe required premises.
Olympic siles on 8jelasnica, lgman and
Jahorina, as well on Vlasic, need recon-
slruclion, and domeslic conslruclion
companies will have lhe opporlunily lo
complele all lhe work. ll is expecled lhal
as a resull 8osnia and Herzegovina will
achieve lull lnancial recovery in lhis eco-
nomic seclor. Our counlry will lnally be
linked lo regional highways, and mosl
ol lhe presenl lransporlalion problems
will be resolved. Thus, we will surely be
lhe biggesl Luropean conslruclion sile
during lhe nexl several years. However,
workers in lhe conslruclion seclor are
nol lhe only ones who received lhe inlor-
malion lrom lhe lnlernalional Olympic
Commillee wilh a smile on lheir laces.
There was a lol ol joy yeslerday among
employees in lhe lourism induslry and
melal induslries, calering and lrading
seclors, elc. We will need lo build ap-
proximalely 30 new holels, numerous
molels and hoslels and, ol course, many
reslauranls, bars and olher similar plac-
es where, during lhe Cames, visilors and
lourisls will have a chance lo lully enjoy
lheir slay in 8osnia and Herzegovina. As
a resull, workers lrom lhe above-men-
lioned seclors, as well as lhe resl ol our
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counlry's cilizens, see opporlunilies lor
more work and higher salaries during
lhe period ol preparalions lor lhe up-
coming Olympic Cames, as well as lor
lhe period during and aller lhe Cames.
ll will cerlainly decrease our unemploy-
menl rale, which is, unlorlunalely, slill
among lhe highesl in lhe LU.
A lol ol polilical decisions have lo be
adopled in lhe nexl lew monlhs and il
will be a greal challenge lor decision-
makers in our counlry. There musl be
some amendmenls in lhe presenl leg-
islalion and olher relevanl documenls,
which will allow lhe Organizing Com-
millee lo conlinue ils work in lhe besl
possible way. There is lol ol work lhal
needs doing, bul we should lake one
slep al a lime.
YQ
8iH is a single slale wilh lwo
enlilies lhal each have a high level ol
aulonomy. However lhis does nol pro-
duce polilical and olher lensions as was
lhe case in lhe pasl, because 8osnia and
Herzegovina is now a member ol Luro-
pean Union. Allhough lhere is some im-
provemenl in lhe qualily ol educalion,
lhe dillcullies lrom lhe previous de-
cade have allecled young people mosl
deeply. Due lo lhe economic crisis, lack
ol jobs and lack ol a vision lor lhe lu-
lure, many ol lhem have decided lo lnd
a beller place lor lhemselves oulside lhe
counlry.
Allhough 8iH has become a mem-
ber ol lhe LU, il slill laces a number ol
economic and social problems because
ol lhe high level ol corruplion and lhe
slowness ol polilical and economic re-
lorms. lls CDP is slill one ol lhe lowesl
in lhe region, near lo lhal ol Kosovo and
Albania. The counlry laces problems in
agricullure and mosl produce is imporl-
ed, lrom Serbia and Croalia in parlicular.
Corridor 5c is almosl lnished. Poli-
licians are considering lhe possibilily ol
opening il during lhe eleclion campaign
in 2026.
The Courl ol 8osnia and Herzegovina
is slill working on a number ol war crime
cases. The Hague Tribunal lor lhe lormer
Yugoslavia is closed. There is no uniled
view on recenl hislory, i.e. lhe period
lrom !99! lo !995, bul lhe almosphere
among peoples ol dillerenl nalionalily is
beller. While lhey do nol share lhe same
views ol hislory, lhey share lhe same
land, as well as economic and social is-
sues. LU and NATO membership have
conlribuled mosl lo lhe silualion where
ordinary people lhink more aboul daily
issues (raising lheir children, sludying
and work), lhan aboul polilical divisions.
There is one Presidenl wilh lwo Vice-
Presidenls wilh more or less similar au-
lhorilies as previous ones. The slale in-
slilulions are slronger because lhal was
one ol lhe condilions lo become a mem-
ber ol lhe LU.
The Ollce ol lhe High Pepresenla-
live does nol exisl any more. OHP was
closed in 20!5. The High Pepresenlalive
|u`|a Iur|`|c
!%) ; 8985
YT
celebraled lhe 20lh Anniversary ol lhe
Daylon Agreemenl and lhen lell 8osnia
and Herzegovina.
The implemenlalion ol Annex 7 ol
Daylon Accord has lailed. There is no
signilcanl number ol relugees lhal re-
lurned lo lheir homes.
YU
A||houh | |now |ha| we are
no| supposed |o |h|n| aoou| scenar|os
|or 3|| |n 202 e||her |n |erms o| w|sh-
|u| |h|n||n or |n our |ears, | have wr||-
|en |wo shor| ser|es o| head||nes where
|he |rs| ser|es represen|s head||nes |rom
a pos|||ve vers|on o| |he |u|ure, wh||e
|he |a||er |s |rom a nea||ve one.
|ead||nes |
! 8OSNlAN CDP PLACHLS 70 Ol
LU AVLPACL
! NOT VlDLOTON ACAlN.
ZLLJLZNlCAP lC lN SLMl llNALS Ol
LUPOPL ULlA LLACUL
!
! 8OSNlAN MOUNTAlNS - THL
CLNTPL Ol LUPOPLAN WlNTLP
TOUPlSM
|ead||nes ||
! 8OSNlA AND HLPZLCOVlNA lS THL
ONLY COUNTPY lN THL WLSTLPN
8ALKANS THAT lS NOT PAPT Ol
THL LU
! SAD ANNlVLPSAPY. !4 YLAPS
AlTLP lTS llPST SUSPLNSlON,
8OSNlAN lOOT8ALL ASSOClATlON
STlLL SUSPLNDLD lPOM ULlA
AND lllA
! TPAClC ACClDLNT lN 8OSNlAN
MOUNTAlNS. MlNLllLLDS APL
STlLL OUT THLPL
|uharem 3azdu|j
! This is an allusion lo lhe lamous deleal ol Zeljeznicar soccer club lrom !985. when lheir leam losl
lo lhe Hungarian Videolon in lhe ULlA semi-lnals malch. ll Zeljeznicar had won, lhey would have
played againsl lhe lamous Peal Madrid in lhe lnals.
QB
8y lhe year 2025, 8osnia
and Herzegovina will enler lhe Luropean
Union and NATO. Aller decades ol na-
lionalism, elhno-nalional separalism and
colleclivism, polilical eliles losl lheir radi-
cal grip, simply because lhey were oulma-
neuvred by polilical ralionalism. Passing
lhrough lhe LU and NATO "slandardisa-
lion lunnel", 8iH has managed lo lrans-
lorm ilsell lhoroughly, lhus crealing new
socielal paramelers. individual prosperily,
inslead ol colleclive disguise, prosperily
ol lhe overall sociely based on educa-
lion, economic progress and inler-depen-
dence, inslead ol mono-elhnic aulism.
As values lhal are prone lo re-connecl
ralher lhan separale, lhey pushed lhe in-
leresl groups lorward lo embrace a new
polilical philosophy. The same language,
lhe same cullure, economic inler-depen-
dence and relalively large and allraclive
markel, made polilicians slarl lhinking
aboul winning lhe hearls and minds ol
ordinary people by providing lhem wilh
lhe opporlunily lo idenlily lhemselves
wilh a broader enlily, beyond lheir own
slalelels a region lhal is big enough and
inluenlial enough lo be laken seriously
as a player wilhin lhe LU.
Aller a long slalemale in inlraslruc-
lural reconneclions ol lhe region, held
hoslage by nalionalisms, lhe counlries
ol lhis region have lnally decided lo cre-
ale a beller road and railway nelwork
using LU slruclural lunds.
|n|ras|ruc|ure
8y 20!4, 8osnia and Herzegovina
and Croalia (al lhal lime lhe only mem-
ber ol lhe LU in lhe region) have joinlly
applied lor L8PD credil and LU lunds in
order lo conslrucl a parl ol lhe Corridor
5c, lrom Sarajevo via Moslar lo lhe Porl
ol Ploce, where il connecls lo lhe Za-
greb-Splil-Ploce Molorway and parl ol
8iH lerrilory via lhe Trebinje Dubrovnik
seclion).
ln addilion, 8iH and Monlenegro
have joinlly prepared a leasibilily sludy
lor lhe railway corridor belween Sara-
jevo and Podgorica, which will lurlher
lead lowards Skopje and Alhens, and
lowards Tirana and Durres.
8ased on lhe regional Lnergy and
Transporlalion charlers, 8iH, Monlenegro,
Amer rape|anov|c
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Macedonia and Kosovo have joinlly es-
lablished lhe Pegional Slar Alliance Air
Corporalion wilh an assel 300 million
Luros and leel ol 40 airplanes. This is a
resull ol long-lasling ellorl on all sides lo
achieve sell-suslainabilily in lhe leld ol
air lransporl.
|o||||ca| coopera||on
lollowing lhe successlul Scandinavian
example, 8iH, Serbia, Monlenegro and
Croalia have eslablished joinl cullural
cenlres in New York, Moscow, 8eijing,
Tokyo, 8erlin, Paris, and London. As ol
2020, lhe lour counlries hold a joinl re-
ceplion lor nalional days, based on a bi-
laleral agreemenl on common diplomalic
ellorls lhal lhe respeclive governmenls
signed on 20!8. According lo lhis Agree-
menl, lhe counlries' signalories ol lhis
Agreemenl are obliged lo oller lo each
olher diplomalic and consular services in
lhe counlries and areas where lhe olher
counlries do nol have lheir own embas-
sies or consular missions. The leasibilily
sludy done prior lo lhe signing ol lhe
Agreemenl had shown lhal each counlry
would save around !0 million Luros an-
nually by implemenling lhe Agreemenl.
|conomy
Using LU Diagonal Accumulalion as
a slarling poinl, 8iH, Serbia, Monlene-
gro and Macedonia have succeeded in
eslablishing many joinl venlures, espe-
cially in lhe lelds ol agricullure, lhe lex-
lile induslry and renewable energy. They
cleverly use lhe so-called "source diver-
silcalion" lo supplemenl each olher's
ellorls in reaching lhe maximum pro-
duclivily and presence on LU and lhird
markels.
5por|s
lor lhe lrsl lime aller lhe breakup
ol lhe lormer Yugoslavia, 8iH, Croalia,
Serbia, Monlenegro, Macedonia and
Kosovo have eslablished a joinl loolball
league. Serbia, 8iH and Croalia have
joinlly applied lor hosling lhe World
loolball Cup.
QA
|os|ar. |uropean Cap||a| o| Cu||ure
|n 2026?!
The Herceg-8osna Minisler ol Cul-
lure lobbied al lhe Council ol Minislers
Meeling in 8russels lor Moslar lo be
pronounced lhe Luropean Capilal ol
Cullure in 2026, inslead ol Sarajevo.
According lo lhe principle ol rolalion
ol enlily minislers al lhe LU Council ol
lhe Minislers meelings, Mr. Komadina
was appoinled lo represenl 8osnia and
Herzegovina al lhe recenl meeling. He
misused lhe opporlunily lo promole
lhe nominalion ol Moslar lor Luropean
Capilal ol Cullure in 2026, even lhough
lhere was a consensus reached in 8lH lo
nominale Sarajevo, which was supporl-
ed by lhe PS Covernmenl as well.
The Press Ollce ol lhe Mayor ol Sa-
rajevo prolesled lhal lhe previous agree-
menl and lhe principle ol "speaking wilh
one voice in 8russels" had been violaled.
Newspapers have oecome h|s|ory?!
The lasl prinled newspaper has been
closed in 8lH due lo lnancial problems.
Dnevni Avaz, lhe newspaper wilh lhe
largesl circulalion in 8lH in lhe pasl, has
been shul down.
The owner ol Dnevni Avaz, Mr. lah-
rudin Padoncic, said lhal lnancial prob-
lems exisled due lo lhe decline in circu-
lalion, as several lhousands ol inlernel
porlals and blogs are being read on cell-
phones. He said lhal he would conlinue
working wilh Dnevni Avaz as an lnlernel
porlal, bul lhal he would lay oll many
journalisls and workers as a resull.
1he |aceooo| cr|s|s
The lacebook Parly represenlalives
in lhe Parliamenl blackmail lhe leading
parly claiming lhal lhey are enlilled lo
gel hall ol lhe minislerial posilions. Sev-
eral MPs, predominanlly young people
wilh no polilical experience, said lhal
lhey have been receiving demands lor
changes in lhe counlry on a daily basis
5rdan |aza||ca
8985 !&2>&$ ?+*## @A-*$=3 $*B#C
QW
lrom lheir volers via lhe lnlernel. Olher
more lradilional parlies claim lhal, even
lhough lhis polilical crisis has no impacl
on lhe economy, lailed ambilion was
lhe only reason lor such behaviour. The
posl-ideological age has broughl aboul
various phenomena, such as lhe lace-
book Parly, lhe Consumers Parly, lhe Al-
liance ol Concerned Men, elc.
5rps|a opens ||s hear|
The Covernmenl ol lhe Pepublic ol
Srpska has compleled a call lor applica-
lions lor more lhan 200 lellows lrom lhe
olher lwo enlilies lo visil Srpska nexl
year, including ils inslilulions, NCOs and
various olher deslinalions, and lo slay
lhere wilh hosl lamilies.
The press ollce ol lhe PS Covern-
menl emphasizes lhal lhe projecl sup-
porls lhe exchange ol sludenls and
sludy visils in order lo promole coopera-
lion and mulual underslanding among
youngslers in 8lH. "ll is our inleresl lo
improve and creale a beller image ol
our enlily, which may have a posilive
impacl on our economy as well."
5wed|sh mayor o| 3anja |u|a
The Swedish communily in 8ocac,
near 8anja Luka, has elecled lheir lrsl
mayor ol 8anja Luka. Johan Soderbergh,
lhe new mayor ol lhe PS capilal, look
advanlage ol lhe large number ol candi-
dales compeling, and won wilh approx-
imalely 20 supporl, gaining mosl ol
his voles among lhe young and liberals.
Swedes, moslly lrom lhe lown ol
Lulea, are proud lo become parl ol lhe
communily in lhis way. Aller lhe Arclic
ice slarled melling lasler lhan expecl-
ed, raising lhe average global sea level,
many people lrom lhe Scandinavian
counlries moved lo soulhern, Mediler-
ranean counlries, wilh a milder climale
and lower populalion densily. Swedes,
having broughl lheir lechnology lo 8an-
ja Luka, have improved economy lhere,
and reduced unemploymenl rale lo
!0, which led many Serbs, mainly or-
ganised lhrough various lnlernel social
nelworks, lo vole lor Johan Soderbergh,.
|epuo|||a 5rps|a jo|ned 3|A
Aller lhe coal reserves in Ugljevik and
Cacko had been exhausled and pow-
er planls shul down, Pepublika Srpska
joined lhe 8alkan lusion Associalion, in-
vesling money in a joinl power planl lhal
would produce 60 ol energy lor lhe
region.
Lven lhough PS produces 50 ol
ils energy lrom lhe renewable energy
resources (moslly hydro-power planls),
lhe lack ol coal reserves has caused a
Q^
signilcanl drop in energy produclion
and an increase in produclion cosls.
Civen lhal lhe 8lA membership im-
plies lhe parlicipalion ol member slales
companies in lhe conslruclion ol lacililies,
lheir ownership ol slocks, and lhe sharing
lhe prolls, lhe PS Covernmenl jusliles
lhis inveslmenl wilh lulure budgel rev-
enues and lhe crealion ol new jobs.
|ncome |ax ra|e |ncreases |o 1%
The Associalion ol loreign lnvesl-
menl Lmployers, which has over !5 ol
employers in ils ranks, prolesled againsl
lhe PS Covernmenl's !5 increase in
income lax.
Amendmenls lo lhe Law on lncome
Tax have been proposed lo lhe PS Na-
lional Assembly and will be considered
al lhe nexl session.
PS ollcials claim lhal a !0 income
lax rale is lhe lowesl in Soulh-Lasl Lu-
rope and lhal il has been increased be-
cause ol lhe pension lund debls, which
are a resull ol lhe increase in lhe aging
ol lhe populalion in PS.
QC
Today's consumer demands
lor heallhy lood encourage producers lo
produce nalural organic producls. Today,
8osnia and Herzegovina is nol lagging
behind lhe mosl developed counlries ol
Lurope in lhe leld ol agricullure.
8iH is one ol lhe regional leaders
in lhis produclion. The besl example
is lhe Organic lood lair, held in Livno
lrom June !5 lo June 2!, 2025. The lair
broughl logelher some 900 producers
ol organic lood lrom all over 8iH, as well
as a large number ol producers lrom lhe
region ol Soulh-Lasl Lurope.
The lair was opened by lhe Prime
Minisler ol 8osnia and Herzegovina, slal-
ing lhe lollowing in his opening speech.
"The Covernmenl inlends lo conlinue
lo invesl heavily in lhe modernisalion
and improvemenl ol exisling capacilies
because lhere are huge opporlunilies in
lhe world markels. ll is imporlanl lo em-
phasize lhal 8osnia and Herzegovina has
a lrade surplus in lhis leld wilh all lhe
counlries ol lhe region, and lhal lhis sec-
lor employs a signilcanl number ol cili-
zens ol 8&H" .The lair was allended by
represenlalives ol all major supermarkel
chains operaling in lhe region as well as
represenlalives ol lood induslries lrom
almosl all lhe LU counlries. ll is expecled
lhal lhe lair will help many producers
lo make new deals wilh polenlial buyers
and resellers, and lo bring new grealer
prolls lo lhe producers lhemselves as
well as lhe 8iH economy in general.
Andr|ja vrdo|ja|
D+-&$%= <""( <&%+ %$ E%.$"
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Today, on June 20lh, 20!4,
lhe cilizens ol Serbia, 8osnia and Herze-
govina and Croalia have received greal
news lrom lhe Union ol Luropean lool-
ball Associalions (ULlA). The lhree coun-
lries will joinlly hosl lhe nexl Luropean
loolball Championship, lo be held in
June 2020.
The news came as no surprise. During
20!! represenlalives ol lhe lhree nalional
loolball associalions clearly signalled lo
lhe ULlA lheir inleresl in slaging lhe Luro
2020. Aller lhe Luropean loolball Associ-
alion decided lo consider joinl bids by lhe
lhree member associalions under excep-
lional circumslances, lhe lhree counlries
made, in 20!2, lheir lnal bid lor hosling
lhis presligious loolball lournamenl. Olh-
er bidders included Turkey and anolher
joinl bid by lhe Czech Pepublic and Slo-
vakia. However, lhe slrong supporl ol re-
speclive nalional governmenls and an el-
leclive promolion and lobbying campaign
launched by lhe nalional loolball associa-
lions have proved lo be successlul, and
lhe "coalilion" won aller having bealen
Turkey in lhe lnal seleclion round.
Civen lhe persislenl inler-elhnic and
polilical lensions and serious economic
slowdown in mosl ol lhe 8alkan Pegion
in lhe recenl years, local aulhorilies and
peoples underslandably look lorward lo
lhe evenl wilh huge oplimism and greal
expeclalions. lor lhem, lhe Luro 2020 is
much more lhan a sporling lournamenl.
As lhe successlul organisalion ol lhe
evenl requires lhe (re)conslruclion ol
sporl and communicalion inlraslruclure,
lhe conslruclion ol holels and lhe gen-
eral improvemenl ol lourism capacilies,
il is expecled lhal lhe evenl will bring
aboul a signilcanl boosl lo lhe lhree
economies and creale new jobs lor lhe
unemployed. Such expeclalions are es-
pecially high among lhe cilizens ol 8os-
nia and Herzegovina, whose unemploy-
menl rale, according lo lhe lalesl slalis-
lics, is slill among lhe highesl in lhe LU.
8ul, even more imporlanlly, such
joinl endeavours ol lhe lhree slales
could meanwhile slrongly highlighl lhe
imporlance ol common economic inler-
esls lor regional prosperily and polilical
A|d 5maj|c
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slabilily, pulling lhese in lhe locus as
lhe basic principle ol lheir mulual rela-
lions, lhus overshadowing elhnic diller-
ences and lensions. Aller lhe previous
year's accession ol Croalia lo lhe LU,
when Serbia and 8iH were also granled
candidale slalus, il is elhnic dillerences,
lhe consequenl inler-elhnic lensions
and lhe burden ol lhe recenl pasl lhal
essenlially remain lhe main obslacles on
lhe laller's palh lo lhe LU. Such cooper-
alive approaches and projecls have lhe
capacily lo remove lhis barrier and pro-
vide lhe lwo counlries wilh a lnal push
lowards Luropean inlegralion. Civen
lhe prevailing posilive almosphere and
lhe 6-year limelrame, il is highly prob-
able lhal Serbia and 8iH will hosl lhe
Luro 2020 galhering ol nalional lool-
ball leams as LU member slales. Mean-
while, one lhing is sure. il has been
agreed by lhe hosl slale lhal lhe lnal
malch will be played in lhe 8osnian cap-
ilal, Sarajevo.
QT
Common spor| and cu||ura| va|ues
Clobally, lhe region has always been
perceived as one. lrom renowned llm
leslivals, various cullural lairs lo indi-
vidual cullural presenlalions, lhe 8alkan
cullural lradilion has been celebraled lo
a greal exlenl. The Sarajevo lilm lesli-
val and "Lxil" in Novi Sad have become
regional cullural brands, logelher wilh
similar cullural evenls in dillerenl areas.
Pegional cullural idenlilcalion has been
lnancially supporled by big regional com-
panies, LU lunds and slales alike. ln lhe
year 20!5, 8iH, Serbia, Monlenegro and
Croalia joinlly applied lo become a Pe-
gional Parlner lo lhe lnlernalional Tour-
isl 8ourse (lT8) lhe grealesl world-wide
galhering ol ils kind. lndividually, none ol
lhese counlries could achieve such a sla-
lus. ll aclually lorced embassies ol lhese
counlries and lheir respeclive minislries
lo work closely logelher on lheir promo-
lion. The Tourism Minislries ol bolh PS
and lhe lederalion 8iH worked closely
logelher lo delne a common plallorm
lor lhe presenlalion ol 8iH.
Aller having presenled lhemselves
successlully al lhe lT8, respeclive coun-
lries decided lo make a joinl bid lo hosl
lhe lrsl ever Luropean loolball Cup on
8alkan soil.
A common memoersh|p perspec||ve
Serbia was granled candidale slalus
in 20!2 while 8osnia and Herzegovina
submilled ils membership applicalion in
lhe same year (Croalia having accessed
lhe LU in 20!3, Monlenegro and Mace-
donia already having candidale slalus,
while Kosovo's LU palh remained dis-
pulable as lar as candidacy slalus was
concerned).
Croalia and Monlenegro have helped
Serbia and 8osnia and Herzegovina
lo beller prepare ils responses lo lhe
;/E( 5"24'(2 2(&"$4&
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queslionnaires relevanl lor candidale
slalus. Lxperls lrom Slovenia, Croalia,
Macedonia and Monlenegro helped 8iH
and Serbia lo gel ready lor lhe adoplion
ol all lhe relevanl segmenls ol lhe acquis.
All lhe counlries have signed bilaleral
agreemenls on mulual cooperalion and
lechnical assislance relaled lo LU allairs.
No |anuae oarr|er
Due lo lhe lacl lhal lhere is no lan-
guage barrier belween Serbia, 8iH,
Monlenegro and Croalia, lhe lnlerna-
lional Media Corporalion has eslablished
regional TV programs and slarled publish-
ing regional newspapers and magazines.
TV Al Jazeera was lhe lrsl lo eslablish a
regional News TV channel, lollowed by
some olher media groups lhal purchased
dillerenl newspapers, slreamlining lhem
lowards a more regional ralher lhan na-
lional edilorial approach. Local and inler-
nalional publishers improved lheir coop-
eralion in lhe region by eslablishing lhe
lrsl 8alkan 8ook Prize lor aulhors wriling
in Soulh-Slavic languages.
TW
=<<IP
TC
93?)"$a X"'32(E is a publicisl and
journalisl. He was born in Travnik and
currenlly lives in Sarajevo. He wriles lor
lhe Oslobodenje daily.
F(0%b ;@(4$303 gradualed lrom lhe
lacully ol Lconomics in Sarajevo and
lhen compleled her poslgraduale slud-
ies al Cambridge Universily. Currenlly,
she is a PhD sludenl in Swilzerland. She
has worked in loreign lrade and as a
consullanl lor several loreign compa-
nies. She was an advisor lo lhe Presidenl
ol Pepublika Srpska, Mr. Dragan Cavic.
She was lhe Minisler ol linance ol Pe-
publika Srpska (lrom 2007 lo 2008). She
leaches courses al privale lacullies in
8anja Luka.
c3"d(@%be;"b(&M3 8(a$3 has a de-
gree in Journalism and works as lhe
Head ol Ollce lor lnlernalional Coop-
eralion and lnlormalion ol lhe lndepen-
denl lederalion ol Trade Unions ol 8iH.
She was born in Zenica and now lives in
Sarajevo.
Dzumhur 1asminka is a Human
Pighls experl. She holds a degree in Law
and an M.A. degree in Criminology. She
was born in Zenica and now lives and
works in Sarajevo.
1urisic G"dM3 gradualed in Law and
holds an M.A. degree in Journalism. She
lives in Sarajevo where she works as a
journalisl.
_3.(430/@%b =E(2 holds a degree
in Polilical Science. He is a career diplo-
mal. He is in charge ol lhe Deparlmenl
lor lhe Luropean Union in lhe Minis-
lry ol loreign Allairs ol 8iH. He is lhe
Presidenl ol lhe Coverning 8oard ol lhe
loundalion ol Cinemalography ol 8iH.
X324%0/@%b =$(M&30)23 has a de-
gree in Lconomics oblained lrom 8el-
grade Universily. She lives and works in
8anja Luka. She is a member ol Transpar-
ency lnlernalional 8iH. She is involved in
lhe lghl againsl corruplion in lhe eco-
nomic and polilical spheres.
X3?3$%D3 ;2f30 is a delegale ol lhe
Nalional Assembly ol Pepublika Srpska.
He holds a degree in Lleclrical Lngineer-
ing. He lives in 8anja Luka and works al
;D(032%/ !$300%06 1(3E
TY
lhe Lleklroprenos 8iH Company, Opera-
lional Area 8anja Luka.
<%M/$%b !2()236 is lhe Presidenl ol
lhe Cenlre lor Slralegic Cooperalion in
8anja Luka. He is a medical doclor spe-
cialised in Clinical Pharmacology. He was
born in Tuzla and now lives in 8ijeljina. He
is a member ol lhe Serb Democralic Parly.
:&E30g(@%b I0(& holds a PhD in
Journalislic Science. He leaches al lhe
lacully ol Philosophy in Tuzla and lhe
lacully ol Polilical Science in Sarajevo.
He has published lour books and occa-
sionally wriles commenlaries and arlicles
lor various newspapers.
-3E%beX(&%'/@%b 8(a$3 has an M.A.
degree lrom lhe Deparlmenl ol Diplo-
macy ol lhe lacully ol Polilical Science in
Sarajevo. She lives and works in Sarajevo.
-/0)%b =)030 is a journalisl ol ln-
lernalional TV News Channel Al-Jazeera.
He holds an M.A. degree in Journalism
oblained lrom lhe lacully ol Polilical
Science in Sarajevo. He lives and works
in Sarajevo.
;E3a%b =%) holds a PhD in Psychol-
ogy and leaches al lhe lacully ol lslamic
Sludies. He is parlicularly inleresled in
exploring lhe slalus ol religion in lhe
lives ol individuals and socielies. He is
aclive in lhe NCO seclor and works al
lhe Cenlre lor Advanced Sludies.
;430%b 9/a30 is a polilical aclivisl. He
was born in Zenica and currenlly lives in
Moslar. He is a prolessor ol Croalian and
Lnglish languages. He is lhe direclor ol
lhe HKK "Zrinjski" in Moslar.
1(d30/@%b <343d3 is a prolessor ol
Cerman Language and Lileralure. Since
!997 she has been lhe manager ol Al-
lernalivna Televizija in 8anja Luka.
12%5"0/@%b =$(M&30)32 is lhe edilor
ol lhe 8uka Media Projecl in 8anja Luka.
He publishes arlicles in local and loreign
media.
L2)/$a3M =0)2%a3 is an NCO aclivisl
working wilh lhe Youlh Cenlre. He lives
and works in Livno.
J3%E/@%b H?"0/@%b <(2E%03 is a
prolessor ol Mechanics and Melrology
al lhe Universilies ol Zenica and Saraje-
vo. She is a delegale ol lhe Social Demo-
cralic Parly ol 8iH in lhe Parliamenlary
Assembly ol 8iH.
J"2/@3D 8a%$a303 was born in Zren-
janin and now lives and works in Sara-
jevo. She has a degree in Thealre and
Dramalurgy lrom lhe lacully ol Philoso-
phy in Sarajevo. She is lhe aulhor ol lhe-
alre plays, TV series and TV plays. She
has also worked as a radio journalisl.
She was a direclor ol lhe High College
ol Journalism in Sarajevo. She currenlly
TQ
holds lhe posilion ol Lxeculive Direclor
ol lhe Press Council ol 8iH.
Zivanovic AIeksandar is an inde-
pendenl consullanl in organisalional
developmenl, communicalions, negolia-
lion and allernalive dispule selllemenls.
He is one ol lhe lounders and lormer ex-
eculive direclor ol lhe Medialors' Asso-
cialion in 8osnia and Herzegovina, which
has led developmenl aclivilies and lhe
applicalion ol medialion in lhe counlry.
He was in charge ol a program run by
lhe Helsinki Cilizens' Parliamenl in 8anja
Luka and a journalisl lor and edilor ol
several local and loreign media. He has a
degree in Journalism oblained lrom lhe
lacully ol Philosophy ol lhe Universily ol
8anja Luka and is currenlly sludying al
a Maslers programme ol Conlemporary
Sociology.
;D(032%/ F//2)%034%/0 1(3E
L(%4 ]%052%(), Scenario lacililalor,
Associale Prolessor al lhe Universily ol
lreiburg
!3&D' !3"$, Scenario Co-lacililalor,
Counlry Direclor, lriedrich-Lberl-Slil-
lung 8iH,
1/.%b 130a3, Pesearch Associale,
lriedrich-Lberl-Slillung, 8anja Luka
ollce
=$%b X(2%E3, Pesearch Associale
lriedrich-Lberl-Slillung, Sarajevo ollce
_323E('%b X%3, Projecl Assislanl
TT
Clobal 8usiness Nelwork, Why scenar|-
os? An Overv|ew o| scenar|o |h|n|-
|n concep|s, www. gbn.com.
lnslilule lor Social Developmenl, 1he
|on| ||eur 5cenar|os, 5ou|h A|r|ca
1992-2002, Universily ol lhe Wesl-
ern Cape, !992.
Kahane, Adam, |ower and |ove, A 1he-
ory and |rac||ce o| 5oc|a| Chane,
20!0.
Lemperl, Poberl J./Popper, Sleven W./
8ankes, Sleven C., 5hap|n |he Nex|
One |undred Years. New |e|hods
|or uan|||a||ve, |on-1erm |o||cy
Ana|ys|s, PAND, 2003.
Meadows, Dennis L. el al., 1he ||m||s |o
Crow|h, Universe 8ooks, New York,
!972.
Millennium lnslilule and Cenlre lor Ap-
plied Sludies in lnlernalional Negoli-
alions (CASlN), 3a||ans |a||y, 2007.
Available al. birn.eu.com/allach-
menl/0000000!5.pdl
Schwarlz, Peler, 1he Ar| o| |he |on
v|ew. ||ann|n |or |he |u|ure |n an
Uncer|a|n Wor|d, !99!.
Shell lnlernalional, 5cenar|os. An |xp|or-
ers Cu|de, 2003.
Sleinmller, Karlheinz / Schulz-Monlag,
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und Zu|un||so||dern 5|ra|e|en |ur
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