Adaptation to Climate Change in the Alpine Space - AdaptAlp

Examples of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Geo-hazards Risk Management in the Alps
Workpackage 6 Risk Management

BWV Carinthia Amt der Krntner Landesregierung Abt. 18 - Wasserwirtschaft Flatschacher Strasse 70 A-9020 Klagenfurt

Contracting entity:

Central Agency for Meteorology and Geodynamics Climate Research Department Hohe Warte 38 A-1190 Wien

Subcontractor:

Wolfgang SCHNER, Daniel BINDER

Worked out by:

Vienna, September 2010 (+ contribution of PGRN)

INDEX

1 CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ALPS 2 CLIMATE CAUSED GEO-HAZARDS IN THE ALPS EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION 2.1 PERMAFROST-RISK
2.1.1 2.1.2 Geotechnical reconstruction of the summit of Sonnblick Geotechnical reconstruction of the Erzherzog Johann Htte (Groglockner, Austrian Alps)

8 9
10 11

2.2 ROCK-FALL
2.2.1 Reconstruction of Gamsgrubenweg hiking trail (Groglockner, Austrian

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2.3 GLACIER RISK 2.4 GLACIER DAMMED LAKES AND GLACIAL FLOODS
2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.4.4 2.4.5 Glacial lakes and thermokarst lakes at Grubengletscher and Gruben rockgletscher technical drainage of ice-dammed lakes Rochemelon technical lowering of lake level of an ice-dammed lake Glacial lakes at Belvedere Gletscher Grindelwaldgletscher artificial channel for drainige of glacial lake Tte-Rousse glacier Risk of glacial lake outburst flood on St Gervais France: A successful integrated risk management avoided a disaster.

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19 21 22 24 29

3 REFERENCES

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CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ALPS

The climate of the Alps is characterized by a high spatial variability (Bhm et al., 2001, Wanner et al., 1997) which clearly exceeds temporal variability. Climate change for the Alps is well documented from long-term instrumental data series e.g. back to ca. 1750 for air temperature. In general spatial structuring of Alpine climate results from the orographic effect of the Alps on atmospheric air flow and from the vertical atmospheric layering. Available instrumental series (including air-pressure, air-temperature, precipitation, sunshine-duration and cloudiness) of the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) were compiled, homogenized and gridded (Auer et al., 2007) within the project HISTALP (www.zamg.ac.at/histalp). Based on an objective regionalization approach (Auer et al., 2007) spatial patterns of climate trends were quantified. Though the climate subregions are not totally identical for all climate elements analyzed a regionalization into 5 major subregions (see Figure 1, subregion Northwest, Northeast, Southwest, Southeast, high-alpine) holds for a general description of the Alpine climate.

Figure 1: Subregions of homogenous spatial trends of climate variables in the Greater Alpine Region for air-pressure (P01), air-temperature (T01), precipitation (R01), sunshine-duration (SU1) and cloudiness (N01). The thin black lines mark the climate subregions for individual climate elements; the bold black line marks the generalized subregions valid for all climate elements. Black dots are climate station series of HISTALP. (Source: Auer et al., 2007)

The climate oft he Greater Alpine Region at the border between the Westerlies, the Mediterranean sub-tropics and the continental East is significantly modified from orographic effect of the Alps. This effect is well reflected in Figure 1 from the outlines of single subregions. The regionalization of the Alpine climate shown in Figure 1 is based on the criteria of homogenous temporal trends of long-term climate change. For other regionalization criteria e.g. extreme precipitation events other/additional subregions may be found (e.g. Seibert et al., 2007). Additionally, in case of higher-resolution spatial scales the regionalization could be reworked for more detailed subregions.

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Figure 2: Illustration showing a simplified classification for climate subregions of the Greater Alpine Region (NWgreen, NOyellow, SWblue, SOred). Beside horizontal gradients there exist significant vertical gradients with subregion L (low) which is for elevations <1500m asl and subregion H (high) which is for elevations > 1500m asl. Additionally, Figure 2c shows a North-South classification motivated from the climate gradient from the climate zone of the westerlies (N, North) )to the Mediterranean South (S) with significant influence of the Alps as a orographical barrier. Figure 2d shows the climate subregions W (West) and E (East) as a results of climate gradients from the increasing continentallity towards the East of Europe (with no influence from the Alps). (Source: Auer et al., 2007).

Beside the classification of the Alpine climate into the four subregions NW, NO, SW and SO additional regionalization of the Alpine climate is possible from: vertical climate gradients (subregions Low (L) for elevations <1500m asl and High (H) for elevations > 1500m asl the climate gradient in the transition zone from the westerlies in the North to the Mediterranean South (subregions North (N) and South (S)) with significant influence of the Alps as a orographic barrier the climate gradient caused by the increasing continentallity towards the East of Europe (with no influence from the Alpine Orography)

Figure 3 b) shows 10-years filtered values of air temperature for the four subregions NW, NO,SW and SO back to 1760. All values are deviations from the 1901-2000 mean. It is quite clear to see from Figure 3b that air temperature trends are spatially homogenous for the Greater Alpine Region. Similarly, Figure 3a shows that temporal trends of air temperature are homogenous for different altitudes within the Greater Alpine Region, too. From this finding it can be concluded that the twice as high increase of air temperature for the Greater Alpine Region compared to the global mean is a general GAR feature without any spatial variability (Auer et al., 2007).

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Figure 3: Relative values o fair temperature for the GAR sub-regions L and H (a)) and NW, NO, SW, SO (b)). Relative values are deviations of the air temperature from the climate normal period 1901-2000. The curves shown are 10-years Gaussian low-pass filtered values. (Source: Auer et al., 2007)

Whereas the general increase of air temperature, in particular for the last approx. 40 years is significantly caused by anthropogenic influence on climate on a global scale, the much higher temperature increase of the Greater Alpine Region compared to the hemispherical or global scale has to be attributed to regional particularities and feedbacks in the GAR. As an example of a regional particularity a northward-shift of the subtropical high-pressure system is highly plausible with associated change to weather patterns with increased sunshine duration and consequently higher air-temperatures (see the parallel trends of lowlevel air pressure, sunshine duration and air temperature in Figure 4, Bhm, 2009, Auer et al. (2007), Efthymiadis et al. (2007)). Regional feedbacks for the Greater Alpine regions could be found in the increased water vapor pressure and related long-wave radiation feedback as well as in the brightening and dimming effect of aerosols on incoming shortwave radiation (Philipona et al., 2008).

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Figure 4: Annual mean values of air temperature (green) and air pressure (black) as well as annual sum of hours of bright sunshine (blue) The graphic shows both single values as well as 30-years low-pass filtered values for air temperature and sunshine duration and 30-years low-pass filtered values only for air pressure. (Source: Bhm, 2009)

In general, spatial patterns of precipitation are highly complex compared to air temperature. This is well reflected from the work of Bhm (2009) which shows the mean decorrelation-distance for precipitation and air temperature, respectively, of the Greater Alpine Region (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Mean decoorelation distance for the climate elements air temperature and precipitation within the Greater Alpine Region. Decorrelation distances are shown for annual means (Jhar), seasonal means (Jahreszeit), monthly means (Monat) as well as daily means (Tag) for air temperature and for annual sums, seasonal sums, monthly sums and daily sums for precipitation. (Source: Bhm, 2009)

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In general, warmer air can hold more water vapor compared to colder air. Consequently, a warmer atmosphere should show an intensified water-cycle. However, even if some evidences for this statement were found on a global scale this statement does not hold on a regional scale (as e.g. the GAR), where other metrological processes (e.g. regional circulation patterns, convective processes) are dominant. Therefore, modeling of precipitation for weather forecast and climate scenarios in particular is a rather challenging task, resulting in a high model uncertainty for precipitation. Again the HISTALP data base provides a detailed insight in spatiotemporal climate patterns for the instrumental period. In general, amount of precipitation is higher north of the Alps compared to the South. Figure 6 shows time series of precipitation in the Greater Alpine Region for the 4 GAR subregions and for the winter half year as well as the summer half year.

Figure 6: Time series of filtered values of seasonal precipitation sums in the GAR differed for the 4 subregions in the period 1800-2007. All values are relative to the mean precipitation in the period 1901-2000 and filtered with a 30-years Gaussian low-pass filter. (Source: Bhm, 2009)

On a long-term scales winter precipitation was generally increasing for the subregion NW since about 1850, whereas summer precipitation was rather stable. This is contrary to subregion SO where both summer and winter precipitation decreased. On a shorter term perspective it is interesting to see that since about 1975 winter precipitation decreased in subregion NW and in particular in subregion SW whereas summer precipitation slightly increased for subregion NW, SO and NO. It is evident from Figure 6 that temporal trends of precipitation are both spatially and seasonal inhomogeneous and are less significant compared to air temperature. Interpretation of temporal trends of the variability of the HISTALP data set in general shows a decrease of the inter-annual variability for air temperature (Bhm, 2009). For precipitation the pattern is more heterogeneous with increasing variability for the NW region in parallel with increasing precipitation. The relationship between the trend of precipitation amount and the trend of inter-annual variability has been observed for the other GAR-subregions, too, with a decreasing variability south of the Alps (Bhm, 2009). During the last years several studies aimed to derive long term and homogenous data sets of snow cover measures for instance the Swiss part of European Alps (Laternser and Schneebeli, 2003). For the Austrian part of the Alps some first analysis of snow cover
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changes were done by Fliri (1992a, 1992b) and Mohnl (1994). Mohnl showed a decrease of 10-30% in snow cover days in the last 100 years for most Austrian stations. Temporal trends of the high-alpine snow measurement network in the region of the Sonnblick Observatory (Hohe Tauern, Austrian Alps) back to 1928 were studied by Schner et al. (2009). Results from long term measurements of snow depth in Switzerland show, that the clear temperature increase within last few decades causes a clear reduction in snow depth with increasing magnitude of the trend with decreasing elevation (Laternser and Schneebeli, 2003, Figure 7).

Figure 7: Relative deviation (in %) of the annual winter mean (NovApr) snow-depth compared to the longterm mean in Switzerland. The Figure shows 11-years moving averages and the long-term trend for different altitude zones, based on data 1932 1999. (Source: Laternser and Schneebeli, 2003)

2 CLIMATE CAUSED GEO-HAZARDS IN THE ALPS EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Examples of adaptation and mitigation activities already performed in the field of climate caused geo-hazards are rare for the Alpine region. However, within the last few decades geo-hazards related to changes of permafrost or changes of glaciers achieved increasing importance and interest. In particular, because of increased temperatures glaciers are currently in a strongly retreating state in the Alps (see chapter 1), with resulting increased risk for some glacier hazards. Several of the actions performed are activities of mitigation and not adaptation. A clear action of adaptation to increased risk of glacier-hazards, however, is an increasing level of awareness training and information
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strategy. Beside NGOs (e.g. the sterreichischer Alpenverein) several media participated in a information strategy for mountaineers, mountain hut operators and hiking trail sustainers.

2.1

PERMAFROST-RISK

Permafrost describes the part of the surface near lithosphere which temperature is below 0C for at least for 2 years (e.g. Brown und Pw, 1973). The penetration of a temperature signal from the atmosphere into the lithosphere increases with its temporal amplitude. High frequency temperature signals with an amplitude of <1 year are to be detected for depth <20m below the surface. For depth > 50-60m the lithospheres temperature is induced from atmospheric temperature signal beyond the longest instrumental temperature records. Since the begin of the 20th century until 2005 the global temperature has increased by about 0.75C (Solomon et al., 2007). For the Greater Alpine Region (419E and 43 49N) the temperature increase has been twice as high as for the global scale (Auer et al., 2007 see chapter 1). From bore-hole measurements Harris et al. (2003) found that within the last century the alpine permafrost warmed by about 0.5-0.8C for the uppermost decameters of the lithosphere. The permafrost thickness various between several meters and several hundred of meters in Switzerland (Lthi und Funk, 2001). Atmospheric temperature signal of events back as far as the last ice age and beyond, are therefore important for the vertical temperature profile in the alpine lithosphere. Beside the transient thermal effect of previous climate events, the surface geometry, the actual spatial patterns of surface temperature and the thermal properties of surface near geology are important boundary conditions in order to model the sub-surface 3Dtemperature field (Gruber und Haeberli, 2007). Based on such a model approach Noetzli und Gruber (2009) estimated the penetration depth for a linear atmospheric temperature increase of 3C/100years for artificial alpine 3D-geometries. Results of this study yield penetration depth of about 250m for periods >200 years, at which only 50% of the temperature signal penetrated to depth greater 100m. The snowcover and glaciers were not included into this model approach. The active layer of permafrost is the surface-near part which is exposed to a seasonal melt and freezing cycle. Though a direct linkage of single events of rock-fall or rock-slide are hard to describe, there are several qualitative but clear evidences supporting this assumption (Gruber und Haeberli, 2007). In particular, areas of warm permafrost, with temperatures close to 0C, are potential sources of slope instabilities because of the coexistence of ice and water in rock cracks and fractures. There are five different mechanical processes causing rock-falls and rock-slides (Gruber und Haeberli, 2007): 1. Melting of ice, which acts as a cementation for the rock matrix 2. Ice-segregation 3. Mechanical erosion due to frost-weathering 4. Hydrostatic pressure 5. Decrease of shear strength In general slope instabilities are related to the general geological and the geo-mechanical conditions for high-alpine region. However, the significant glacier retreat and the degradation of permafrost (resulting from climate change) of the last few decades have additional influence on slope instabilities in high-alpine environment (Fischer et al., 2006).
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2.1.1 Geotechnical reconstruction of the summit of Sonnblick The exposed summit of Hoher Sonnblick (3106 m) is subject to permanent erosion processes. Additionally, the increase of air temperature (Figure 8) since the end of the 19th century resulted in a significant degradation of the permafrost. Due this permafrost degradation the amount of liquid water in the rock system increased which in turn increases the physical erosion of the rock system. A further increase of atmospheric air temperature will result in increased erosion of rock summit of Hoher Sonnblick.

Figure 8: Time series of air temperature at Sonnblick back to 1886 for the winter period (October-March), the summer period (April September) and the year (Source: Bhm, 2009)

A geological-geotechnical survey (Schober, 2001) worked out a concept for redevelopment actions to be done in order to save the stability of the Sonnblick summit and of the buildings of the Sonnblick Observatory and the Zittelhaus-hut. Chronology for the redevelopment of Sonnblick summit(Schober, 2006 a,b): 15.10.2001 Geotechnical survey: Geological- geotechnical survey of the summit area of Hoher Sonnblick focusing on the erosion-risk and a concept for redevelopment 15.05.2002 Call for tenders for rock-stabilization work Working steps: 1. Rock-wall cleaning from loose rocks 2. Rock anchorage by pre-stressed permanent anchors and bedding 3. Local rock nail-up 4. Jetcrete construction 5. Sealing construction of summit

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1. Phase of stabilization work 2. Phase of stabilization work 3. Phase of stabilization work 4. Phase of stabilization work, bore-hole drilling for PermafrostProject 20.&26.-28.07., 06..22.09.2006 Technical sealing of summit

11.07.-02.10.2002 18.06.-17.09.2003 05.07.-17.09.2004 02.09.-28.09.2005

Figure 9: Summit of Hoher Sonnblick observatory (3106 m a.s.l.) after remediation works. Vertical concrete bars (see green circles) were placed to reduce problems of permafrost degradation (picture by Schner W.).

2.1.2 Geotechnical reconstruction of the Erzherzog Johann Htte (Groglockner, Austrian Alps)
The Erzherzog Johann Htte (3454m asl) is the highest mountain hut of the Eastern Alps, situated close to the summit of Groglockner. Originally built in 1880, the hut was enlarged several times in the past. Since a while the walls of the oldest parts of the hut (the eastern and nothern part of the hut) were influenced from crack formation, settling and moisture ingress.
Figure 10: Construction scheme (source: www.dywidag-systems.at)

Consequentely, several rooms of the hut could not be used anymore. The cracks in the walls

were as large as several centimeters in width, up to 60cm in depth and several meters long, resulting in vertical and horizontal displacements downhill. Generally, the hut is built on a debris layer which lies on top of a basement of greenschist and prasinite. Due to the high
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AdaptAlp Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Geo-Hazards Risk Management in the Alps WP 6: Risk Management contracting entity: BWV Carinthia

elevation of the site the debris layer is permafrost. Whereas for the lower part of the hut (see Figure 10) the foundation is based on the debris layer with creeping deformation the foundation of the upper part is based on stable rock, resulting in a continuous disruption of the building. In order to stop creeping the debris layer were stabilized by a reinforced concrete beam (which itself was fixed to the rock basement). The costs for the stabilization work were about 1.5 Mio Euros. Though it is clear that the stability problems resulted from melting permafrost it is not clear to which degree the permafrost-melting either resulted from increasing air temperatures or from increased thermal energy intake due to enlargement of the hut. More information available from:
http://www.dywidag-systems.at/referenzen/details/article/erzherzog-johann-huette-grossglockner.html

2.2

ROCK-FALL

2.2.1 Reconstruction of Gamsgrubenweg hiking trail (Groglockner, Austrian Alps) Significant degradation of the Alpine permafrost was caused from temperature increase within the last decades. Additionally, because of slope depressurizing due to glacier retreat since the last ice age, rock-fall activity and slope failures increased. Both phenomena affected several hiking trails in the Alps. The Gamsgrubenweg, a panorama trail in the area of Groglockner/Pasterze (Austrian Alps), is a good example for geohazards from slope depressurizing. Though the cause for this geo-hazard is related to climate change and associated glacier retreat, it is important to point out that it is due to natural climate variability on very long time scale (which is significantly different to geohazards related to permafrost degradation). The Gamsgruben trail has to be closed at 05. 08. 1999 because of danger from possible rock falls and rockslides by the local authority Spittal/Drau. Over a period of 4 years several tunnels (construction of five tunnels with a total length of 850m for a 1 km long sub-part of the trail with a total length of 2.6km) were built in order to guarantee safety for hikers. The trail were reopened at 20.07 2003. The total investment for all tunnels with about 900 meters and other safety constructions was 1.8 million Euros, with high priority for environmental protection. With the new Gamsgrubenweg, as part of the tourism strategy of Carinthia, the highly frequented alpine huts Hofmannshtte and Oberwalderhtte were easily accessible again. However, because of the long closing, and from several problems with stability of underground, the Hofmannshtte has been closed until today. The perception of modified risk in mountain areas from impacts of climate change by mountain guides, guides of mountaineering clubs and renters of mountain huts were subject of a study for the Austrian Hohe Tauern region (Glocknergruppe, Goldberggruppe see Behm et al., 2006). Results from an opinion poll (Figure 12) clearly show the perception of increased risk for mountaineering from increased rock falls, inaccessible routes and trails because of melted ice and snow-fields. Several adaptation actions have been already performed by alpine clubs, mountain rescue organization and mountain guides as:
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close-down of routes or shift of execution period for routes increased investment in preservation of hiking-trails increased information activity in alpine journals

The alpinism is a good example for climate adaption already performed in the European Alps. Because of the high impact from climate caused changes of geo-risks activites have been done early and without delay.

Figure 12: Results from an opinion poll for mountain guides, guides from Alpine clubs and mountain hut operators on perception of climate-caused changes of alpinism in the Groglockner region and Goldberggruppe region in the Austrian Hohe Tauern region. (Quelle: Behm u.a. 2006)

Further examples: (source: http://www.4000plus.ch/index.php?id=212) Summer 2006: Groups of mountaineers were injured from rock-falls at Schreckhorn and at Eiger North-wall. Three mountaineers were killed from an accident caused by a rockfall at the Jungfrau-West-face. 25 mountaineers were rescued because of a rock fall at Matterhorn (Liongrat, Italian part of Matterhorn). The tour has been closed from local authorities for safety reasons. Summer 2003: Similar events were reported from the climatically outstanding (extremely warm because of pronounced heat-waves) summer of 2003, with a high number of rock falls all over the Alps. A large rock fall was reported from the Swiss part of Matterhorn at famous Hrnligrat. The tour was closed from local community and the rock walls were cleaned by mountain guides.

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2.3

GLACIER RISK

Glaciers are beyond the most significant climate impacts in nature. Both periods of glacier retreat as well as glacier advance can result in geo-hazards, with greatest glacier disasters during periods of glacier advance, e.g. the advance of a glacier can destroy infrastructure (buildings, roads etc.) as known from the example of Findelengletscher in 1980. However, also periods of glacier retreat due to climate warming e.g. since the Little Ice Age and particular since the begin of the 1980s can result in significant glacier hazards including: Formation of ice-dammed lakes both in active and stagnant parts of glaciers Ice- and glacier avalanches Increased rock fall and rock slide

Figure 13: Classification of dangerous glaciers in Switzerland for the example of the region Wallis (Source: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/glaciermap)

Tufnell (1984) classifies three different sources which could result in significant glacial risks: - Changes of glacier length and glacier area - Floods caused by glacial lakes - Glacier- and ice avalanches

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In Switzerland the glaciers were classified according to their risk potential. Figure 10 shows the classification of glacier hazard risk for the example of Kanton Wallis. The information on glacier hazard risk is available from the website http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar (Figure 14). Beside the classification the website provides information on past events and general information on glacier hazards as well as risk management. The website and its online data base are deliverables of the EUfunded project Glaciorisk (http://glaciorisk.grenoble.cemagref.fr/projet_glaciorisk.htm) based on compilation and analysis of past data of glacier hazards in the Alps. Comparing the status of glacier hazard survey in the different countries of the Alps it is obvious to see that most work was done in Switzerland, where risk form glacier hazards are significantly higher compared to e.g. Austria.

Figure 14: Dangerous glaciers in the region of Wallis in Switzerland (Source: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/)

Table 1 and Figure 15 give an overview on historical events of glacier hazards in Switzerland. It is obvious from that list that the damaging potential of glacier hazards is high. Several events not only caused high loss for infrastructure but also high loss of people. In following part actions of adaptation and mitigation against climate caused glacier hazards are described in more detail for several examples from the Alps.

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Table 1: Examples of glacier hazrd events in Switzerland (Source: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/)

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Figure 15: Number of fatalities caused by glacier hazards in Switzerland (Source: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/)

Figure 16: Alternative actions against glacier hazards (Source: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/)

A practice-oriented project on glacier hazards risk management were carried out by ETH-Zrich (Versuchsanstalt fr Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologie) in cooperation with private company Ernst Basler + Partner AG aiming to provide a management plan from a participative process structure. The concept was applied to the Kanton Wallis in Switzerland. Based on the assumption of a limited budget for hazard protection the project developed a strategy to answer the question which safety can be achieved from which investment for protection activities. In other words, the concept provides a toolbox
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for sustainable risk management based on a set of transparent and traceable rules, derived from the example of 30 Swiss glaciers which were classified as dangerous on a medium-term time scale. The participative structuring of the project were organized by workshops with local stakeholders and experts where they could bring in their knowledge and risk assessment. Based on an evaluation of the hazard risk ten glaciers with highest level of risk were selected and an assessment of the risk management plan was applied. Safety activities could either be applied to the hazard zone, the transition zone or to the damage zone. The different actions as well as their impact can be seen from Figures 16 and 17.

Figure 17: Optimized sequence for realization of risk reduction activities against glazier hazards in Wallis (Source: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/)

In the next step an assessment of safety activities according to their cost-efficiency were done. By doing so the annual costs of actions (operational, maintenance, amortization of investment) were compared to the risk reduction. Results show that the smaller the cost efficiency ratio the more successful the respective action. The cost efficiency ratio of 0.5 means that for each Swiss Franc to be invested the risk is reduced by 2 Swiss Franc. The initial risk of the ten glaciers were estimated a 4.4. Mio Franc/year. The risk reduction in comparison to the initial risk can be derived from Figure 14 as a function of the cumulative costs for action. It is obvious from Figure 14 that the more actions are realized the less the risk is cost-efficiently reduced. If all 11 actions would have been realized the group of actions would result in a cost efficiency of 0.3. However, it has to be noticed that the last two actions have cost efficiencies of 1.3 and 9.2, respectively and therefore could not be suggested. The assessment of actions shows that the risk of glacier hazards can be efficiently reduced. A useful and cost-efficient action is possible from the combination of monitoring, alarming and emergency planning. In contrary, costs for dam-constructions generally show a weak cost efficiency compared to the risk reduction.

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The method described above combines both state of the art science and expert-knowledge based on classical risk-management techniques from different persons leading to a extensive expertise. In particular the above method allows: - to estimate the risk from glacier hazards quantitatively - to assess actions according to their cost efficiency, - to derive an inventory of available knowledge on glacier hazards and their damage - to find a consensus between Scientists, technical experts and stakeholders at several national levels (commune, province, national).

2.4

Glacier dammed lakes and glacial floods

2.4.1 Glacial lakes and thermokarst lakes at Grubengletscher and Gruben rockgletscher technical drainage of ice-dammed lakes The evolutions of periglacial and glacial lakes in the region of Gruben rockglacier and Grubengletscher (Saas Valley, Wallis, Switzerland) have been monitored with respect to their risk of outburst floods (e.g. Kb und Haeberli, 2001). These lakes are either glacial lakes or thermokarst lakes. The temporal evolution of a thermokarst lake is described from Figure 18, showing that the melt of ice is particularly forced by increasing melt surface and the density mixing of lake water. Outbursts from one of these lakes (Lake Number 3) were detected in 1958, 1968, 1970 and 1971 with a total water release of 170.000m and a peak discharge of approx. 15m/s. Additionally, the flood mobilized sediments from nearby moraines of a total volume of 400.000m which resulted in serious damage (2 Mio Franc) for the community of Saas Balen. For the so-called moraine lake the damming moraine were sealed by concrete injections, whereas lake number 3 and the thermokarst lake (lake number 5) were drained by an artificial outlet (Figure 19). In total a loss and investment of about 20 Mio Franc was necessary for the outburst and actions against possible outburst of the lakes in the Grubengletscher region. Sources: http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/download/gruben.pdf http://folk.uio.no/kaeaeb/publications/aaar.pdf

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Figure 18: Schema of energy input by solar radiation, convective heat transport to the damming dead ice/permafrost, subsequent ice melt and water cooling of the lake water leading to a positive feed-back which drives the non-linear growth of thermokarst lake 5 at Gruben rockglacier (Source: Kb und Haeberli, 2001)

Figure 19: Level and area of the ice-dammed thermokarst lake 5 over the period 1968-1995 as determined from repeated photogrammetry. The lake level smoothly dropped some meters in 1985 and 1988. Assessment of future lake growth suggested an area of about 20,000 m2 (or an volume of 100,000 m3 respectively) in the year 2000 (dashed line with arrow). In 1995, the lake was pumped out due to its increasing hazard potential.. (Source: Kb und Haeberli, 2001)

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2.4.2 Rochemelon technical lowering of lake level of an ice-dammed lake Source: http://www.sensalpin.ch/pro0015.htm The Rochemelon-glacier is situated at a rock-face exposed toward Northwest close to the Pic de Rochemelon (3538m.asl) in the Savoien Alps at the border between France and Italy. The glacier has an area of approx. 1.6 km and covers the altitudinal range between 2950 und 3300m.asl. Because of the negative mass balances since the beginning of the 1980s a lateral glacier lake was formed, which in 2004 covered an area of 4.7 ha and a volume of 650'000m3. The glacier melt increased at the onset of the 1990s and with it the dam of the lake significantly decreased, causing a high risk of unregulated drainage of the lake or even a burst of the damming ice mass from the hydrostatic pressure of the lake water. Therefore the local authorities decided for technical measures against the glacier-hazard. As a fist step the lake level was lowered by about 6m using a technical siphon-system crossing the glacier in order to meet the high risk of a lake outburst. At that time the level of the ice-dam was just about 30cm above the lake level. At the same time AlpuG, Waljag und SensAlpin worked out an emergency management concept within the timeframe of several days only. The concept included a monitoring of the lake level and the lake temperature at two different levels. Additionally, in case of a sudden drop of the lake level an alarming system for local authorities was installed, providing different levels of alarms and warnings. The installation of measuring devices was carried out in November 2004 by divers of the local fire brigade. Beside the sensors in the lake the monitoring installation included a radio transmitter to a local warning center located at the permanently manned office of the Col du Mont Cenis storage lake. The warning system included not only the online access to the lake data but also a permanent inspection from the staff of the storage with the possibility for alarming of responsible persons by phone in case of pre-defined alarm-levels. In summer 2005 the glacial lake were completely drained by a glacial channel achieved from technical work (shot by explosives, see Photograph 2). In order to survey the effectiveness of the drainage of the lake the sensors were left in the empty lake for an additional year. The data showed that the drainage worked well and the channel stood open for the next winter. Therefore the sensors were removed and the monitoring of the glacial lake were limited to periodical visual inspections. A detailed description of the outburst flood hazard from glacier-dammed Lac de Rochemelon can be found in Vincent et al (2010). The outburst from the lake could have been triggered by overtopping and consequent erosion of the ice dam, sub-glacial water drainage and rapid enlargement of the ice channel close to bedrock or mechanical
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collapse of the ice dam Vincent et al (2010). Similar to other hazardous glacial lakes in the Alps it was decided to enable controlled lake water drainage from digging a surface channel in the damming ice body in order avoid any risk of catastrophic outburst flooding. This strategy appears to be the easiest and most cost-efficient to solve the problem.

Figure 20: Left: Channel dug through the ice during drainage. The top 6m were dug artificially using explosives, after that the water overflowed through the ice breach and dug the channel naturally. (Photograph by C. Vincent.). Right: Map of Lac de Rochemelon, which was bounded to the southwest by a rocky ridge and to the northeast by an ice dam. Until September 2004, the lake drained naturally through the outlet in the rocky ridge. (Source: Vincent et al., 2010)

2.4.3 Glacial lakes at Belvedere Gletscher Source: http://glaciorisk.grenoble.cemagref.fr/sec6_GLACIORISK_D4.pdf At Monte Rosa in Valle Anzasca/Italy the Belvedere glacier approached a state with high risk for glacier hazards because of glacier dynamics. Beside an ice dammed lake also increased rock fall activity were observed. Most probably a surge-type evolution caused the formation of a large depression at the Belvedere Glacier at the foot of the Monte Rosa East face, filled since 2001 by a supraglacial lake (Chiarle and Mortara, 2008). The lake (named Effimero at an elevation of 2100 m a.s.l.) strongly increased in volume towards a maximum of more than 3 Mio m in 2002. Because of possible flooding of Macugnaga village 2.5 km downstream due an outburst of the lake, technical actions by the Italian Civil Defense Department were decided. Additionally, there was possible risk from moraines bordering the lake which possibly were thought to collapse into the lake. The risk of an outburst was significantly reduced by pumping the water until the lake level dropped to half the original volume (Figure 21).

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Figure 21: Pumping installations on theglacial lake Effimero which were used to drain the lake to a level with no risk of outburst flooding (Source: http://glaciorisk.grenoble.cemagref.fr/sec6_GLACIORISK_D4.pdf.

The dynamics of Belvedere glacier in relation to the climate is still unclear. Since 2001 the volume of glacier in the area of the tongue increased though the air temperature increased at the same time. A surge of Belvedere glacier could be one possible reason for this behavior without significant changes in accumulation pattern. In particular the surge could be forced from changes in the ice physics (e.g. switching part of the glacier ice from cold based to temperate) or changes in the sub-glacial sediment body. During and after the emergency related to the Belvedere Glacier surge and Effimero Lake growth, investigations were carried out by mean of advanced techniques, in order to gain data relevant to the glacier dynamics, the lake evolution and the en-glacial and subglacial drainage system pattern (Tamburini and Mortara, 2005). Possible hazard scenarios of lake Effimero are described in Figure 22.

Figure 22: Hazard scenarios for ice dammed lake Effimero at Belvedere glacial basin. (Source: http://glaciorisk.grenoble.cemagref.fr/sec6_GLACIORISK_D4.pdf)
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2.4.4 Grindelwaldgletscher artificial channel for drainige of glacial lake Today the Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher (Figure 23) in Switzerland is retreating not continuously but shows a high risk of an abrupt retreat of 800m in a very short time for the area of the glacier tongue. Until 1997 the glacier tongue of Grindelwaldgletscher reached the gorge northwest of the Bregg. This part of the glacier was shielded from direct sunlight and consequently from glacial melt over a long period because of a steep rock walls of the gorge. Additionally, the mass balance of the glacier was positively affected from snow- and ice avalanches from the Kallifirn (Challifirn) situated above. In contrast, in the area between Bnisegg and Stieregg, the glacier tongue clearly lowered and the downward ice advection stopped. Consequently, a large depression formed and in 2006 a glacial lake appeared (Figure 23) which in turn increased the ice melt (positive feedback). Further information at: www.gletschersee.ch

Figure 23: The Untere Grindelwaldgletscher with the glacial lake, Fietscherhorn and Eiger-Eastsfacee (to the right hand side of the photograph). The picure was taken from Bregg-Htte (46 36 3 N, 8 3 37). Photo: Armin Kbelbeck, 29. Juli 2009 Source: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:UntererGrindelwaldgletscher_01.jpg

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Figure 24: Schematic view of glacial lake formation in the area of Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher. (Source: www.gletschersee.ch)

In the time after the Little Ice Age maximum extent around 1860 the Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher advanced far beyond the glacial gorge. Since then the glacier continuously retreated until today and meanwhile is above the glacial gorge. As the glacier not only retreated in glacier length but also in ice thickness the valley slopes became unstable. This was clearly to see during the rockslide of Schlossplatte. The rocks from the rockslide covered parts of the glacier and prevented them from strong melt. As the glacier continued to retreat a basin without surface drainage was formed. During the snow melt in springtime the water is stored in that basin. The subsurface of the lake is formed by the ice of the glacier, which has a thickness of about 100-150 meters above the bedrock. The glacier itself is drained by a sub-glacial channel which lies in the glacier ice and flows into the river Ltschine (Figure 25). The glacier lake is filled by melt water each year and generally drains in spring/early summer for the first time. From the thermal energy stored in the lake water and enforced from the hydrostatic pressure of the increasing lake level during the summer season channels are formed in the basal ice body which finally cuts into the basal channel of the glacier drainage (Figure 25). The water in the channel rapidly increases the channel diameter and large amount of water drains in a short time period into the glacier gorge and in the river Ltschine and further into the Brienzersee. The enlargement of the sub-glacial tunnel and related discharge either could be continuously (as for the example of July 2008) or could be catastrophic as in May 2008 with large flooding downstream.

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Figure 25: Schematic view of glacial lake before (top) and after (down) the lake outburst in the area of Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher (Source: www.gletschersee.ch)

Figure 26: Schematic view of the glacier dammed lake in the area of Grindelwaldgletschers as well as of the bypass channel built in 2009 (Source: www.gletschersee.ch)

In order to avoid large flooding a 3.2x4.4meter and approx. 2km long drainage tunnel were built over a period of 10 month (the entry of the tunnel is at 1373m.asl, the lowest point of the dam is at an elevation 1395masl. Figures 25 and 26). The tunnel allows reducing the maximum lake volume to 120.000 km (compared to a volume of 2.5 Mio km before the channel construction work in 2009). Even in the case of a sudden release of the 120.000km of water from the lake there will be no damage for the villages downstream the glacier lake.
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The tunnel offers not only the opportunity for managing the lake discharge but also to use it as transport route for heavy construction vehicles up to the glacier area e.g. to repair the lake discharge in case of blockage. Though the costs for the tunnel were as high as about 15 Mio. Swiss Francs the money was well-invested in order to manage the glacier floods.

As the glacier retreat will proceed in the future and therefore the lake basin will increase in spite of the tunnel construction. If there will be no natural drainage channel formed in the next few years, the intake of the tunnel has to be lowered in order to guarantee a safe maximum lake volume. Additionally, it is expected for the future that the tunnel inlet has to be cleaned by construction vehicles from time to time to limit the maximum water discharge into the river. In conclusion, the technical construction of the tunnel was the good solution in order to manage the glacial flooding of Grindelwaldgletscher now and also in the future.

Figure 27: Intake of the tunnel (at 7. August 2009) built in order to manage the glacial flooding from Unterer Grindelwaldgeltscher. (Photo: Armin Kbelbeck) Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0b/Unterer_Grindelwaldgletscher_02.jpg

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Figure 28: Schematic view of the glacial lake in the area of Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher and ist relationship to the rockslide from Eiger (Quelle: www.gletschersee.ch)

Beside the risk from the glacial lake formation in the region of Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher the region is also known from the large rockslide in 2006 from Eiger ("Felssturz am Eiger" with 2 Mio m of rock). This rockslide originates from the vanished ice masses of glaciers and related missing ice pressure (Figure 28). After a period of increased rock-fall activity in August 2008 only two pillars remained from the rock-wall. These two pillars, however, collapsed in summer 2009. It is rather unlikely that a rock-fall into the lake will happen.

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2.4.5 Tte-Rousse glacier Risk of glacial lake outburst flood on St Gervais France: A successful integrated risk management avoided a disaster.
This chapter is a contribution of Carine Peisser, Ple Alpin Risques Naturels, http://www.risknat.org In 1892 a glacial lake outburst flood originating from the Tte-Rousse glacier triggered a major disaster on the community of St Gervais, Haute-Savoie, France, causing 175 fatalities and huge damages. After this event, a gallery was dug in 1904 in order to drain the glacier tongue. This gallery has been constantly regularly maintained all along the 20th century. In 2004, the Mountain Terrain Remediation Service (RTM) wanted to know if this surveillance gallery was still useful and thus worth being maintained. The question was asked to the glaciologists of the Laboratory of Environmental Glaciology and Geophysics in Grenoble (LGGE), who launched geophysical surveys in collaboration with other scientist (LTHE, LGIT, 2007-2009). Radar surveys pointed out an anomaly which had to be further investigated. Late 2009, the Proton Magnetic Resonance method revealed a water pocket of 65.000 m3 under pressure. The prefect of Haute-Savoie and the mayor of the commune were alerted in March 2010 that there could be a risk of sudden natural drainage. After other complementary studies confirmed the risk, the authorities decided jointly in July to implement a combined safety plan: (1) drillings and pumping operations on the one hand in order to artificially drain the water pocket and (2) in the same time a civil protection system on the other hand, including early warning systems and an evacuation plan managed by the firemen (SDIS). The population was informed through regular meetings. 3500 people were concerned. According to historical studies of the 1892 event, people had 10 to 30 minutes to evacuate, depending on where they lived along the water course. The Civil Protection Service (SIDPC) coordinated the crisis management cell. Mid august the alert system was ready. The regular, accurate and appropriate information to the public (residents and tourists) avoided panic. The pumping operation began the 10th of August and the pressure dropped rapidly; after the first thousand m3 had been successfully pumped out a new fear arose because of a possible collapse of the cavity roof. The scientists were once more urgently asked to provide answers, modelling the behaviour of the cavity. In the same time the police was asked to set up a permanent monitoring system on the glacier and to set off alert if needed. Finally at the beginning of October 48.000 m3 had been evacuated and the risk was eliminated. In 2010, a possible catastrophe, similar to the one in 1892, may have been avoided thanks to (1) a close cooperation of every stakeholders involved in the risk management cycle and (2)
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the living memory of a former event. This case-study can thus represent a best-practice example of integrated risk management.

Figure 29: Drilling works on the Tte Rousse glacier (photo C.Vincent)

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