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Worcester Polytechnic Institute {yutaowang,nth}@wpi.edu

Abstract. One of the most popular methods for modeling students knowledge is Corbett and Andersons [1] Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (KT) model. The original Knowledge Tracing model does not allow for individualization. In this work, we focus on comparing two different individualized models: the Student Skill model and the two-phase model, to find out which is the best for formulating the individualization problem within a Bayesian networks framework. Keywords: Student Modeling, Knowledge Tracing, Student Skill Model, Individualization.

Introduction

One of the most popular methods for modeling students knowledge is Corbett and Andersons[1] Bayesian Knowledge Tracing model. The original Knowledge Tracing model does not allow for individualization. Recently, Pardos and Heffernan [3] built a two phase individualization method where they trained four parameters per student at a pre-process, then took those values and put into a per skill model to learn how the user parameters interacted with the skill. This model is part of the final model that won the 2010 KDD Cup on educational data mining. The assumption this model made, which is we can learn student parameters first without any knowledge of skills seems unreasonable. Wang and Heffernans [4] work further explored the individualization of student parameters to allow the Bayesian network to keep track of four student parameters and four skill parameters simultaneously in one step in a model called the Student Skill model (SS), which seems more appealing to our desire for elegance. The goal of this paper is to answer two questions that this new individualization model raised. First, is this approach better than the two phase model that won the KDD Cup? And second, under what circumstances is it better? 1.1 Two Individualization Models

Fig.1. shows Pardos and Heffernans two phased model. To train this model, the first step was to learn student parameters by using the Prior Per Student [2] model by training on all skill data for an individual student one at a time. The second step was to include all of the student specific parameter information into a model, shown in Fig. 1 to learn skill related parameters.

K. Yacef et al. (Eds.): AIED 2013, LNAI 7926, pp. 836839, 2013. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

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The second model that allows a for individualization is called the Student Skill(SS) model[4]. It can learn four student parameters and four skill parameters simultaneo ously in a single phase process. The model is shown in Fig. 2.

Node representations K = Knowledge node Q = Question node P = Prior knowledge node G = Guess node S = Slip node L = Learning node St = Student node StP = Student prior knowledge StG = Student guess node StS = Student slip node e StL = Student learning node Sk = Skill node ge SkP = Skill prior knowledg SkG = Skill guess node SkS = Skill slip node SkL = Skill learning node alent class nodes (Note: P, G, S, L are equiva that have one duplication fo or each time slice) Fig. 2. The Student Skill model

...

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Experiments

The two models were compared in both simulated and real data experiments. Given limited space, only the real data result is reported, simulation result is similar. The data used in the analysis came from the ASSISTments platform, a freely available web-based tutoring system for 4th through 10th grade mathematics. We randomly pulled out data of one hundred 12-14 year old 8th grade students and fifty skills from the school year September 2010 to September 2011. There are in total 53,450 problem logs in the dataset. The dataset was randomly split into four bins in order to perform a four-fold cross-validation. For each student, we made a list of the skills the student had seen and split that list of skills randomly into four bins, placing all the data for that student for that skill into the respective bin. There were four rounds of training and testing where at each round a different bin served as the test set, and the data from the remaining three bins served as the training set. Both models were trained and tested on the same dataset. The accuracy of the prediction was evaluated in terms of the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Lower value means higher accuracy. 2.1 General Data Experiment

The purpose of the general data experiment was to determine which of the two individualization models works better in a real world Intelligent Tutoring System datasets. The cross-validation results are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. RMSE of SS vs 2-phase

The average RMSE of the Student Skill model is 0.438, which is better than the Two Phase model 0.442. However, paired t-test result has p > 0.05, which indicates that the result is not statistically reliable. 2.2 Filtered Data Experiment

The assumption we tried to verify in this experiment is that, in the first phase of the two phase model, when the model tries to determine which are the student parameters without knowing the skill information, the students that have done only easy skills will be more likely to get better parameters (better here means indicating he/she is a good student) than the students who have done only hard skills, and this inaccuracy in estimating student parameters would affect the Two Phase models results, and causes a difference in model performance compared to the Student Skill model.

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We filtered our dataset according to our assumption through the following steps and then compared the two models again on this filtered dataset. a) Group skills to hard/medium/easy using percent correctness, in order to ensure that skills are very different, we threw out the medium group and kept only the hard and easy group skills; b) Find student group A that contains students who have done both hard and easy skills; c) Find student group B who have done only hard skills; d) Find student group C who have done only easy skills; e) Randomly select equal numbers of students from all three groups and use the data logs that are from only the hard and easy skills to build the dataset. The cross-validation results are shown in Table 3.

Table 2. RMSE result of SS vs 2-phase in Filtered Real Data Experiment

The average RMSE of the Student Skill model is 0.423, which is better than the Two Phase model 0.426. The paired t-test on the prediction residual of all of the data points has p < 0.05, which indicates that the two models do perform differently in the situation we filtered the data to make.

Conclusion

In this paper, we were able to show that the two different individualized Knowledge Tracing models perform similarly in general, yet different under certain circumstances.

References

1. Corbett, A.T., Anderson, J.R.: Knowledge Tracing: Modeling the Acquisition of Procedural Knowledge. User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction 4, 253278 (1995) 2. Pardos, Z.A., Heffernan, N.T.: Modeling Individualization in a Bayesian Networks Implementation of Knowledge Tracing. In: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on User Modeling, Adaptation and Personalization, pp. 225266 (2010) 3. Pardos, Z.A., Heffernan, N.T.: Using HMMs and bagged decision trees to leverage rich features of user and skill from an intelligent tutoring system dataset. Journal of Machine Learning Research W & CP (in press) 4. Wang, Y., Heffernan, N.T.: The Student Skill Model. In: Cerri, S.A., Clancey, W.J., Papadourakis, G., Panourgia, K. (eds.) ITS 2012. LNCS, vol. 7315, pp. 399404. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)

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