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(11) EP 2 148 225 A1
(12) EUROPEAN PATENT APPLICATION
(43) Date of publication:
27.01.2010 Bulletin 2010/04
(21) Application number: 08013205.3
(22) Date of filing: 22.07.2008
(51) Int Cl.:
G01W1/10
(2006.01)
F03D 7/00
(2006.01)
(84) Designated Contracting States:
AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR
HR HU IE IS IT LI LT LU LV MC MT NL NO PL PT
RO SE SI SK TR
Designated Extension States:
AL BA MK RS
(71) Applicant: Siemens Aktiengesellschaft
80333 Mnchen (DE)
(72) Inventor: Stiesdal, Henrik
5000 Odense C (DK)
(54) Method and arrangement for the forecast of wind- resources
(57) The invention relates to a method and to an ar-
rangement for the forecast of wind-resources of a wind-
farm. The forecast is done by a numerical weather- pre-
diction- tool, where the weather-prediction- tool uses a
long-term data-set of meteorological data. This data are
related to the location of the wind-farm. A wind-speed
measurement is done by at least one wind-turbine of the
wind- farm to do a parameterization of an atmospheric
turbulence. The wind-speed measurement is used to
generate a data-stream, which is combined with the data-
set of the meteorological data to do the forecast.
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Description
[0001] The invention relates to a method and an ar-
rangement for the forecast of wind-resources and for the
forecast of an output, too, of a commercially operated
wind farm.
[0002] The forecast of wind resources and so to fore-
cast a wind-farm output- power will improve the ability, to
commit specific power- production from a wind farm.
[0003] Consequently, an accurate forecast is needed
to improve the value of wind power. This could pave the
way for a higher penetration with wind-farms, too, than
it is now.
[0004] There are numbers of concepts to forecast the
wind- resources and the output-power of a wind- farm.
They are based on a traditional numerical weather pre-
diction by tools at a mesoscale level - "Mesoscale Mete-
orology" is the study of weather systems, which are small-
er than synoptic scale systems but larger than microscale
and storm-scale cumulus systems.
[0005] However experience shows that the accuracy
of this kind of models is not sufficient for power-output
commitments that could be associated with high penal-
ties.
[0006] The US 72 28 235 discloses an enhanced meth-
od for the forecast, where public available long-term data-
sets of locations are considered, which are near to a
planned wind-farm location. A test- tower is located at the
potential new location being used to collect more short-
term data- sets. The long- term data sets and the short-
term data- sets are combined to be used by a computer-
learning- system. So it is possible to predict Long- term
data- sets for the potential wind-farm location.
[0007] It is the aim of the invention, to provide an im-
proved method and arrangement for the forecast of wind-
resources and for the forecast of an output-power of a
wind- farm.
[0008] This problem is solved by the features of claim
1 and 8. Preferred embodiments of the invention are sub-
ject of the subsequent claims.
[0009] For the forecast it is necessary to do a high-
resolution numerical weather prediction at a level being
relevant for the operation of wind-turbines. This level is
the atmospheric boundary layer, so a parameterization
of atmospheric turbulences for this level is needed.
[0010] This parameterization is one of the largest
sources of error for the high-resolution numerical weather
prediction, so a correct parameterization will be a key
requirement for any tool to be used for the forecast.
[0011] According to the invention necessary parame-
terization of turbulence is derived by the use of an unique
feature of a modern wind-farm: it is derived from a wind-
speed measurement, which is done preferably at each
wind- turbine of the wind- farm.
[0012] This wind-speed measurement is done contin-
uously and in "real- time" at a certain height of the wind-
turbine - preferably the height of the hub of the wind-
turbine.
[0013] This will result in a real-time data- stream com-
prising wind-speed- measurements, done at the hub-
height, from a significant number or from all wind-turbines
of the wind-farm.
[0014] These measurements are combined with other
meteorological data, measured at the wind-turbine.
[0015] Especially the combination of relevant data of
all wind- turbines across the wind- farm is used for the
forecast.
[0016] This data is fed to a numerical weather predic-
tion model, leading to a significantly improved forecast
for the wind- farm.
[0017] In a preferred embodiment wind-speed-meas-
urements at other certain heights are used additionally.
These measurements might be provided from one or
more meteorological masts located within the wind- farm.
Because of this it is possible, to describe the local wind-
shear.
[0018] In a preferred embodiment the air temperature
is measured for at least two different heights to provide
information for the assessment of atmospheric stability.
[0019] If the wind farm is located offshore it is a pre-
ferred embodiment to measure even the sea tempera-
ture.
[0020] The inventive method delivers a significant bet-
ter forecast- quality, if spatially distributed wind- turbines
are used to do the speed- measurements described
above. This adds one or more additional dimensions to
the wind-speed measurements of the wind- farm.
[0021] If the wind- farm consists of a single line of wind-
turbines, the wind- speed measurements at the hub-
height are done from several or from substantially all
wind- turbines. This leads to a more precise description
of turbulence, because one more dimension is added to
the typical single- point wind-speed measurement.
[0022] If the wind-farm consists of wind-turbines being
located at an area, the wind- speed measurements at
hub- height are done from several or from substantially
all wind-turbines. This leads to a more precise description
of turbulence, because it adds two more dimensions to
the typical single- point wind-speed measurement.
[0023] Measuring at different heights adds additional
dimensions if needed.
[0024] The measured wind-speed-data and the other
meteorological data are transferred to a computer-sys-
tem, to be used for a numerical weather prediction model.
[0025] The data are used to calibrate the numerical
weather prediction model. So real-time data for the pa-
rameterization of the turbulence are available and can
be used together with stability elements of the prediction
model.
[0026] So a continuous adjustment and calibration of
the model is enabled.
[0027] It is also possible to use the provided data for
a correlation with historical predictions, advantageously
used to be fed into a learning computer-system.
[0028] If the predicted wind- speed is combined with
the assigned power of the wind-farm as a function, the
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total power output of the wind- farm can be predicted ac-
curately.
[0029] The quality of the forecasting is improved in a
preferred embodiment by combining the data of a first
wind- farm with data of a second wind- farm, which is lo-
cated at another place.
[0030] The first and the second wind-farm should be
located within a certain area, for which the same numer-
ical weather prediction model can be used.
[0031] The quality of the forecasting is improved in a
preferred embodiment by adding of non-wind- farm- relat-
ed meteorological measurements to the data-stream, for
example by adding of data from nearby synoptic stations.
[0032] The quality of the forecasting may be further
improved by adding information from satellite-based
wind- speed measurements.
[0033] The output prediction may be adjusted by com-
bining information which are related to the downtime of
used wind- turbines, and/or by combining information
which are related to wind-turbines being operated in so
called "partly curtailed mode", etc.
[0034] The inventive method is implemented in a pre-
ferred embodiment as a so called "add-on- feature" to
control-software and/or to monitoring-software of new or
of already existing wind- farms.
[0035] So owners are provided with useful additional
resources to improve their forecast without the need of
a great amount of additional costs.
[0036] The invention is described in more detail with
help of a drawing.
[0037] FIG 1 shows a wind-farm WF with lined- up
wind- turbines WT11 to WT15 and WT21 to WT25 to be
used for the invention.
[0038] A forecast of wind- resources of the wind- farm
WF is done by a numerical weather- prediction- tool WPT,
where the weather-prediction-tool WPT uses a long-term
data- set of meteorological data. The meteorological data
are related to the location of the wind-farm WF.
[0039] A wind-speed measurement is done by at least
one of the wind-turbines of the wind-farm WF. In this ex-
ample a wind- speed measurement is done by six wind-
turbines WT11, WT13, WT15, WT21, WT23 and WT25.
[0040] The wind- speed measurements are delivered
to weather- prediction- tool WPT, where they are used to
do a parameterization of atmospheric turbulences. They
are used as additional data to be combined with the data-
set of the meteorological data. Based on this data-com-
bination the forecast is done in a precise manner.
Claims
1. Method for the forecast of wind-resources of a wind-
farm,
- where the forecast is done by a numerical
weather- prediction- tool,
- where the weather- prediction-tool uses a long-
term data- set of meteorological data, which are
related to the location of the wind- farm,
characterized in,
- that a wind-speed measurement is done by at
least one wind-turbine of the wind- farm to do a
parameterization of an atmospheric turbulence,
- that the wind- speed measurement is used to
generate a data-stream, which is combined with
the data-set of the meteorological data to do the
forecast.
2. Method according to claim 1, characterized in, that
the wind-speed measurement is done continuously
and in real-time at a certain height of the wind- tur-
bine.
3. Method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in,
that the height of the hub of the wind-turbine is used
as certain height.
4. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that a number of wind-turbines of
the wind-farm perform wind-speed measurements,
which contributes to the real-time data-stream.
5. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that wind- speed- measurements,
which are performed at other certain heights, are
used additionally to form the data-stream.
6. Method according to claim 5, characterized in, that
the additional wind-speed- measurements are done
by one or more meteorological masts, which are lo-
cated within the wind-farm.
7. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that the temperature of the air is
measured for at least two different heights to provide
an additional meteorological information for the as-
sessment of atmospheric stability.
8. Method according to claim 7, characterized in, that
for an offshore wind-farm the sea temperature is
measured as additional meteorological data.
9. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that spatially distributed wind-tur-
bines are used to do the wind-speed- measurements.
10. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that the wind-speed-measure-
ments and the meteorological data are transferred
to a computer- system, to be used for modeling the
numerical weather prediction.
11. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that historical predictions are
used additionally to do the numerical weather pre-
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diction.
12. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that a predicted wind-speed is
combined with an assigned power of the wind-farm
as a function to predict a total power output of the
wind- farm.
13. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that meteorological data and
wind- speed- measurements of a number of wind-
farms are used to do the forecast, while the wind-
farms are located within an area, for which the same
numerical weather prediction model is used.
14. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that non-wind- farm- related me-
teorological measurements are used additionally to
the meteorological data and to the wind-speed-
measurements to do the forecast.
15. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in, that information from a satellite-
based wind- speed measurement are used addition-
ally to do the forecast.
16. Method according to one of the preceding claims,
characterized in,
- that information, which are related to the down-
time of used wind- turbines, are used additionally
to do the forecast, and/or
- that information, which are related to wind- tur-
bines being operated in a partly curtailed mode,
are used additionally to do the forecast.
17. Arrangement for the forecast of wind-resources of a
wind- farm, with means, which are developed to ex-
ecute the method steps according to one of the pre-
ceding claims.
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REFERENCES CITED IN THE DESCRIPTION
This list of references cited by the applicant is for the readers convenience only. It does not form part of the European
patent document. Even though great care has been taken in compiling the references, errors or omissions cannot be
excluded and the EPO disclaims all liability in this regard.
Patent documents cited in the description
US 7228235 B [0006]