Development Issues in Cape Town

IDP Spatial Co-ordination workshop

21 August 2006

Craig Haskins
Manager: Strategic Information

Information & Knowledge Management

Agenda

Context

Driver – population

7 development issues (from IDP – IGR)

Capital investment patterns

Scenarios

Conclusion
Introduction

First decade of democracy significant improvement to quality of life

for many South Africans

Number of challenges remain:

unemployment, poverty, housing backlog, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis,
crime, overburdened infrastructure, inefficient resource use &
increasing pollution levels

Above are inter-related & require integrated, strategic actions

Overall Developmental Context

Last decade - real progress in number of sectors

But poverty & its related problems have persisted in midst of

economic affluence

Economic development not accompanied by attendant degree of

social progress
Population Growth

1996-2001: characterised by rapid growth

Average growth rate of 3% in 1996

Growth rate decreased to 1.61% in 2006

Population Growth

Population growth expected to slow dramatically over next 15 years:

4 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0

4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0

3 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0

3 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0

2 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0

2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
T o ta l - m id d le m ig r a tio n
1 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0 T o ta l - h ig h m ig r a t io n
T o ta l - lo w m ig r a tio n
1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0

5 0 0 ,0 0 0

0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Population Growth

Growth slowing due to:

- reduced fertility
- impact of HIV/AIDS
- reduced migration to city

Implications
Ageing population requires appropriate social & healthcare facilities
Mechanisms must be found to engage youth through sport, recreation &
employment
Socio-Economic conditions

Changes to development path of city constrained by trends which

are reinforcing social / spatial segregation & inequalities

Problem is not absence of economic growth - but failure to harmonize

economic & social development objectives

Benefits of economic progress do not reach population as a whole

Socio-Economic conditions

Reflected in:

Unemployment: from 13% (1997) to 23% (2004)

People in informal settlements - from 23 000 families (1993) to 115

000 families (2006)

Households living below or marginally above household poverty line-

from 25% (1996) to 38% (2005)

HIV prevalence continued to rise in line with national trends:

from 3 % (1996) to 15.7% (2005)
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES
IDP - IGR

Environment
Spatial and Regional Planning
Human and Social Development
Economy
Integrated Human Settlements
Transport
Crime
ENVIRONMENT

Acute pressures on key environmental resources

Major obstacles to economic & social progress

Pressure on water resources

Recent shortages in energy supply

Emerging crisis around regional landfill site and high levels of waste
(amount of waste disposed per capita increasing at alarming rate -
60% increase from 1999 to 2005)
ENVIRONMENT

A n n u a l w a s t e d is p o s e d p e r c a p it a

800
702
700
640

600 567 553

534
494 509
500
k ilo g r a m s p e r c a p it a

400

300

200

100

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SPATIAL & REGIONAL PLANNING

Current urban form:

- unsustainable
- economically unproductive
- prohibits integration

Addressing sprawl is a key challenge

Cape Town grew by 40% in area between 1985-2005

City’s footprint: 1977 versus 2006
HUMAN & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Social & economic challenges are reflected in:

- high levels of absolute poverty

- inadequate housing
- poor health status
- exclusion of certain segments of population
Human & Social Development

Poverty (% of population living below household subsistence level)

38%
40%
35% 32%

30%
25%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1996 2001 2005
Human & Social Development

HIV prevalence (national – blue and Provincial – pink)

3 5 .0 %

3 0 .0 % 3 0 .2 %
2 9 .5 %
2 7 .9 %
2 6 .5 %
2 5 .0 % 2 4 .5 % 2 4 .8 %
2 2 .8 % 2 2 .4 %
2 0 .0 %

16 . 0 %
15 . 0 % 15 . 4 % 15 . 7 %
14 . 2 %
12 . 4 % 13 . 1%

10 . 0 % 10 . 4 %
8 .7 % 8 .6 %
7 .6 % 7 . 1%
6 .3 %
5 .0 % 5 .2 %
4 .3 %
2 .4 % 3 . 1%
1. 4 % 1. 2 % 1. 7 %
0 .8 %
0 .0 %
19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Human & Social Development:
implications

Highest prevalence: Nyanga & Khayelitsha (higher than national – 30%)

Many residents poor, uneducated, with little HIV/AIDS prevention

education, & poor access to health care

Need for youth development strategies to address future poverty,

HIV/AIDS & unemployment (given 50% of population will be younger
than 31 years)

Goals only achieved through coordinated efforts of 3 spheres of

government & active involvement of civil society
Economy

City economy contributed 11.1% to GDP (2005)

Main challenge: creation of employment opportunities

Unemployment has grown from 13% (1997) to 23% in 2004

Distribution of economic growth - highly skewed towards those with

skills & access to resources

Large majority precluded from meaningful participation in economy

Economy
Comparison of level of unemployment (pink) & GGP (blue)

35 1 4 0 .0
112
30 1 0 2 .6 1 0 6 .4 1 2 0 .0
9 8 .6
9 4 .7
25 9 0 .6 1 0 0 .0
8 2 .7 8 6 .3
8 2 .6
2 3 .8 2 3 .4
20 1 9 .7 8 0 .0
% unem poym ent

G G P ( R b illio n s )
18 1 9 .8
15 6 0 .0
1 6 .5
15
10 1 3 .3 4 0 .0

5 2 0 .0

0 0 .0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
INTEGRATED HUMAN
SETTLEMENTS

Many residents live in informal settlements:

- Approx. 14% of all housing is informal housing
- 260 000 - 400 000 households presently living in depressed physical
conditions

Inadequate services & infrastructure

Resulting in social & economic problems

Key challenge: managing housing & infrastructural demands &

backlogs
Integrated Human Settlements

350000 350000

300000 300000
2 4 50 0 0 2 6 50 0 0
240000 2 6 50 0 0
250000 250000
H o u s in g b a c k lo g ( n o . o f

2 4 50 0 0 2 4 50 0 0
d w e llin g u n its )

2 2 10 0 0
200000 200000

h o u s in g d e liv e r y
150000 15 0 0 0 0 150000

100000 100000

50000 50000
9 72 9
4 110 18 0 8 3469
0 0
19 9 8 19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10
Integrated Human Settlements

No. of shacks in Cape Tow n (actual counts)

120000
96951 98031
100000
94972
83684
80000
72140
60000
59854
R2 = 0.9815
40000
28300
20000

0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
TRANSPORT

Outdated transport network- focussed on private car use &

‘traditional’ destinations (e.g. CBD)

Current urban form generates large amounts of movement

Great financial, social & environmental cost to city

Increase of 23 323 vehicles 2001-2003

Transport

Life inconvenient & expensive for those who cannot afford a car .

Poor have little access to economic/social opportunities

Public transport system inefficient:

- difficult to switch from one mode to another

- some parts of city inaccessible
CRIME

High crime rate- a main challenge

Negatively affects economy:

- tourists put off
- businesses discouraged from investing

Contributes to rising poverty- limits assets & livelihood sources of

poor

Fear of crime leads to fragmentation & polarisation in city

Crime

Incidence of murder (per 100 000 of population)

M u r d e r r ate p e r 100 000

100
86
77
80
60
55
60

40

20

0
2 0 0 1 /2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 /2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 /2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 /2 0 0 5
Crime

Incidence of rape (reported cases per 100 000 population)

Re p o r te d r ap e cas e s p e r 100 000

150 13 5
12 5 12 4
118
125
100
75
50
25
0
2 0 0 1 /2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 /2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 /2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 /2 0 0 5
Crime

Drug-related crime
D r u g r e la t e d c r im e p e r 1 0 0 0 0 0
482
500

400
3 14
300
241 232

200

100

0
2 0 0 1 /2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 /2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 /2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 /2 0 0 5
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005

UNDP – Environmental Resource Management

MCA – Sustainability Institute

Resource flows
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005

The ideas and concepts presented in the MSDF are as relevant today
as they were when it was drafted. More importantly, the development
challenges the region 15 years ago seem as apt today as they were
then. ,

In 2006, even a cursory glance at Cape Town suggests that not much
has changed in terms of development patterns from 15 years ago.
Whilst the plan above looks impressive, many of the projects
identified there have yet to reach fruition. Apartheid has become
concretised in the many new low-income housing estates. New
malls have sprung up (such as Cape Gate and Century City), there
are more cars on the road than ever before and the modal split
between public and private transport remains unchanged.
Significantly, there have been no changes to the way in which water,
waste water, solid waste and energy is ‘delivered’ and distributed.
 TOTAL INVESTMENT WITHIN CORRIDORS

UNDER CONSTRUCTON R 4,301,642,000,000

UNDER CONSTRUCTON BILLIONS R 4,800,000,000,000

COMP FINAL R 2,152,945,000,000

C AREAS PFINAL2 R 541,000,000

APPROVED R 2,479,000,000

TOTAL R 11,257,607,000,000

TOTAL INVESTMENT OUTSIDE OF CORRIDORS

UNDER CONSTRUCTON R 10,803,743,700,000

UNDER CONSTRUCTON BILLIONS R 10,300,000,000,000

COMP FINAL R 2,017,000,000

COMP BILLIONS R 1,117,336,000,000

C AREAS PFINAL2 R 2,522,000,000

APPROVED R 1,602,684,000,000

APPROVED BILLIONS R 1,600,000,000,000

TOTAL R 25,428,302,700,000

These figures account only for projects valued at over R10million each
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005

Housing development and meeting demand for residential growth has been a
key determinant of investment is water and sanitation infrastructure. The
issue here is that investment is often demand driven, ad hoc and responsive
rather than co-ordinated and driven by long term strategic focus. Major
investment in bulk infrastructure required for new housing development, most
notably in northern areas of the city, as well as housing projects on the Cape
Flats such Delft and more recently N2 Gateway projects (albeit more limited
than the former) are examples of this.

The lack of investment in some aspects of service delivery is as important as

that which has been invested in to date. Maintenance focussed capital
investment has been significantly compromised in the context of great
demand, limited funding and little strategic focus. For example, planned
refurbishment and replacement of trunk sewers falling are behind and waste
water treatment works capacity is tending to fall behind the needs, as a result
of reduced budgets for maintenance and necessary capital works.
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005

The institutional system which drives transport investment in the City is

complex, fragmented and un-coordinated. The City of Cape Town has not
been able to influence the full spectrum of transport components that
constitute the transport system as a whole. Fragmentation and poor co-
ordination between the City and ‘external’ agencies as well as between the
sectoral departments of the City is common.

Land use patterns and trends, particularly the rapid (peripheral) spatial
expansion of the City over the last ten to fifteen years has encompassed
significant road construction. Accommodating the needs of private sector
development has come at significant capital costs. The majority of the total
construction costs have been borne by the City, with limited developer
contributions. The road network is continually being expanded through capital
investment, so maintenance costs are continually rising. The maintenance
burden imposed on the City as a result is enormous.
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005

The City’s investment has for many years focused on road based
transport, supporting and reinforcing private motor vehicle based
transportation, with significant resource consumption (fuel) and
pollution (emissions) implications. Currently, transport investment is
responsive to housing development (largely private sector), rather
than directing such development, again undermining efficiency. The
existing (ever increasing) maintenance burden and underinvestment
in road maintenance is also highly unsustainable. The city simply
does not have the resources to continue to manage this.
 The Need for Change
Desired
scenario

Equitable
Globally Competitive
Accessible

Spatial and economic

inequalities persist,
Some social
Apartheid city
improvement
2020 Scenarios
Ecological
Stability

The Bold and 50-50

The Beautiful
Pumping Stagnant
Funding Funding

Going Nowhere
Yizo-Yizo
Slowly

Ecological
Distress

Bold and Beautiful (Pumping Funding, Ecological Stability)

50-50 (Stagnant Funding, Ecological Stability)
Yizo-Yizo (Pumping Funding, Ecological Distress)
Going Nowhere Slowly (Stagnant Funding, Ecological Distress).
CONCLUSION

We need change in our approach in addressing challenges

A crossroad:
- continue with current path
- Or change path towards shared growth

Many challenges (i.e. HIV/AIDS, crime & housing backlog) will

remain with us for long time

Be realistic about what can be achieved

In times of drastic change it is the learners who inherit
the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped
to live in a world that no longer exists - Eric Hoffer

Thank You Enkosi Dankie

SOURCE: STATE OF CAPE TOWN REPORT 2006 -

DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN CAPE TOWN (FIRST DRAFT)