Brazil Trade balance 2014-2015 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
In the 1Q2014 exports, goods and services, fell 1.8% Y/Y, in USD terms (+5.2% in volume) and imports fell by 0.2% Y/Y (-0.2% Y/Y in volume). For the 2nd
and 3rd. quarter is estimated that the deficit of foreign trade in goods and services will remain similar to the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the previous year levels,
showing a clear upward trend from the 4th. quarter of 2014.
In terms of GDP, the volumes of both exports and imports have consistently low signals, demonstrating lack of competitiveness of export sectors and weak
domestic demand.
The following is a quarterly summarizes of the data and our projection
Million current USD
Balance
Exports
Y/Y
Goods Imports
Y/Y
1996Q1
-2,031
11,479
5.1% 10,286 -13,510 -8.6%
1996Q2
-1,941
13,642
5.2% 12,617 -15,583 -7.4%
1996Q3
-3,812
14,247
2.3% 12,955 -18,059 16.9%
1996Q4
-6,496
13,417 -1.5% 11,889 -19,913 29.9%
1997Q1
-2,887
12,176
6.1% 10,657 -15,063 11.5%
1997Q2
-3,936
15,759 15.5% 14,132 -19,695 26.4%
1997Q3
-4,638
16,664 17.0% 14,902 -21,302 18.0%
1997Q4
-5,938
15,271 13.8% 13,303 -21,209
6.5%
1998Q1
-4,071
13,926 14.4% 11,907 -17,996 19.5%
1998Q2
-2,262
15,964
1.3% 14,075 -18,225 -7.5%
1998Q3
-4,693
15,514 -6.9% 13,494 -20,207 -5.1%
1998Q4
-5,660
13,634 -10.7% 11,664 -19,293 -9.0%
1999Q1
-1,988
11,828 -15.1% 10,045 -13,816 -23.2%
1999Q2
-1,631
13,933 -12.7% 12,406 -15,565 -14.6%
1999Q3
-2,053
14,345 -7.5% 12,581 -16,398 -18.9%
1999Q4
-2,503
15,099 10.7% 12,979 -17,603 -8.8%
2000Q1
-1,392
14,156 19.7% 12,048 -15,548 12.5%
2000Q2
-1,014
16,266 16.7% 14,105 -17,280 11.0%
2000Q3
-1,689
18,091 26.1% 15,246 -19,780 20.6%
2000Q4
-3,765
16,070
6.4% 13,687 -19,836 12.7%
2001Q1
-2,530
16,279 15.0% 13,788 -18,809 21.0%
2001Q2
-1,584
17,417
7.1% 15,139 -19,001 10.0%
2001Q3
-639
17,487 -3.3% 15,447 -18,126 -8.4%
2001Q4
-355
16,361
1.8% 13,849 -16,717 -15.7%
2002Q1
-63
14,486 -11.0% 11,891 -14,550 -22.6%
2002Q2
13
15,320 -12.0% 13,161 -15,307 -19.4%
2002Q3
4,041
20,780 18.8% 18,466 -16,740 -7.7%
2002Q4
4,173
19,326 18.1% 16,844 -15,153 -9.4%
2003Q1
3,044
17,660 21.9% 15,045 -14,616
0.5%
2003Q2
5,128
20,330 32.7% 17,957 -15,202 -0.7%
2003Q3
5,978
22,276
7.2% 19,788 -16,298 -2.6%
2003Q4
5,713
23,266 20.4% 20,294 -17,553 15.8%
2004Q1
5,491
22,566 27.8% 19,448 -17,075 16.8%
2004Q2
7,671
26,757 31.6% 23,858 -19,086 25.5%
2004Q3
8,700
29,894 34.2% 26,972 -21,194 30.0%
2004Q4
7,101
29,842 28.3% 26,197 -22,741 29.6%
2005Q1
7,129
28,399 25.9% 24,451 -21,271 24.6%
2005Q2
8,965
32,791 22.6% 29,226 -23,826 24.8%
2005Q3
10,754
36,918 23.5% 33,042 -26,164 23.5%
2005Q4
9,547
36,248 21.5% 31,589 -26,700 17.4%
2006Q1
7,606
34,241 20.6% 29,458 -26,635 25.2%
2006Q2
7,730
35,962
9.7% 31,599 -28,233 18.5%
2006Q3
11,831
44,765 21.3% 39,900 -32,934 25.9%
2006Q4
9,649
42,315 16.7% 36,851 -32,666 22.3%
2007Q1
6,005
39,794 16.2% 34,002 -33,789 26.9%
2007Q2
8,561
44,485 23.7% 39,212 -35,924 27.2%
2007Q3
6,940
49,331 10.2% 43,385 -42,391 28.7%
2007Q4
5,308
50,994 20.5% 44,050 -45,686 39.9%
2008Q1
-561
45,927 15.4% 38,690 -46,488 37.6%
2008Q2
3,720
58,894 32.4% 51,955 -55,174 53.6%
2008Q3
3,565
68,469 38.8% 60,215 -64,904 53.1%
2008Q4
1,422
55,103
8.1% 47,082 -53,681 17.5%
2009Q1
150
37,941 -17.4% 31,178 -37,791 -18.7%
2009Q2
5,643
44,741 -24.0% 38,774 -39,098 -29.1%
2009Q3
1,971
48,840 -28.7% 41,846 -46,869 -27.8%
2009Q4
-1,720
49,200 -10.7% 41,197 -50,921 -5.1%
2010Q1
-5,045
46,992 23.9% 39,230 -52,038 37.7%
2010Q2
-606
56,960 27.3% 49,958 -57,566 47.2%
2010Q3
-3,807
63,270 29.5% 55,742 -67,078 43.1%
2010Q4
-1,229
66,291 34.7% 56,986 -67,521 32.6%
2011Q1
-4,573
60,393 28.5% 51,233 -64,966 24.8%
2011Q2
-467
76,090 33.6% 67,071 -76,557 33.0%
2011Q3
30
81,491 28.8% 71,695 -81,461 21.4%
2011Q4
-3,128
76,275 15.1% 66,041 -79,403 17.6%
2012Q1
-6,951
65,092
7.8% 55,079 -72,043 10.9%
2012Q2
-5,567
72,105 -5.2% 62,133 -77,672
1.5%
2012Q3
-1,243
73,060 -10.3% 63,383 -74,304 -8.8%
2012Q4
-7,886
72,185 -5.4% 61,984 -80,070
0.8%
2013Q1
-15,588
60,786 -6.6% 50,837 -76,374
6.0%
2013Q2
-9,356
73,430
1.8% 63,588 -82,786
6.6%
2013Q3
-11,301
72,310 -1.0% 63,226 -83,610 12.5%
2013Q4
-8,418
74,787
3.6% 64,528 -83,205
3.9%
2014Q1
-16,511
59,698 -1.8% 49,588 -76,209 -0.2%
2014Q2
-9,422
72,341 -1.5% 62,786 -81,763 -1.2%
2014Q3
-11,431
73,351
1.4% 64,009 -84,781
1.4%
2014Q4
-9,742
72,913 -2.5% 62,690 -82,655 -0.7%
2015Q1
-15,956
60,482
1.3% 50,467 -76,438
0.3%
2015Q2
-10,340
70,741 -2.2% 61,344 -81,081 -0.8%
2015Q3
-11,751
73,884
0.7% 64,347 -85,635
1.0%
2015Q4
-11,450
71,354 -2.1% 61,164 -82,804
0.2%
Last official data
Provisional own estimate
Own estimate
Also see: Foreign Sector Press Release by Central Bank of Brazil

Goods
-10,751
-12,491
-14,217
-15,887
-11,489
-15,464
-16,588
-16,206
-13,745
-14,064
-15,269
-14,636
-10,861
-12,206
-12,731
-13,412
-12,067
-13,300
-15,356
-15,061
-14,467
-14,527
-14,115
-12,463
-10,863
-11,603
-13,200
-11,575
-11,240
-11,364
-12,396
-13,290
-13,324
-14,996
-16,906
-17,609
-16,151
-17,877
-20,068
-19,509
-20,130
-21,394
-25,218
-24,609
-25,275
-27,355
-33,025
-34,962
-35,929
-43,414
-51,860
-41,904
-28,189
-27,854
-34,572
-37,090
-38,349
-42,958
-50,937
-49,524
-48,091
-57,260
-61,587
-59,309
-52,661
-57,494
-54,745
-58,284
-55,992
-61,505
-61,764
-60,364
-55,660
-59,953
-62,863
-59,194
-55,424
-58,885
-63,325
-58,903

Million $R (G&S)
Balance Exports Imports
-1,848 11,855 13,703
-2,162 14,043 16,205
-4,421 14,991 19,412
-6,755 14,532 21,287
-5,253 12,680 17,933
-4,171 16,765 20,936
-5,498 17,850 23,348
-5,737 16,761 22,498
-4,631 15,509 20,140
-3,120 18,116 21,236
-5,431 18,098 23,529
-6,398 16,168 22,566
-2,635 21,345 23,980
-3,081 23,825 26,906
-3,950 26,634 30,584
-5,297 28,424 33,721
-3,405 25,420 28,825
-3,303 29,116 32,419
-4,711 32,531 37,242
-9,382 30,624 40,006
-6,589 32,671 39,260
-4,757 39,783 44,540
-2,739 44,555 47,294
-3,044 41,610 44,654
-1,914 34,244 36,158
-1,163 38,255 39,418
12,385 64,793 52,408
13,061 71,031 57,970
8,091 61,586 53,495
12,338 60,721 48,383
15,055 65,202 50,147
14,013 67,260 53,247
13,532 65,264 51,732
21,527 81,657 60,130
23,231 88,947 65,716
16,981 83,025 66,044
16,455 75,689 59,234
18,729 81,185 62,456
22,796 86,478 63,682
19,500 81,490 61,990
14,060 74,807 60,747
13,933 78,419 64,486
22,968 96,927 73,959
17,817 90,305 72,488
9,921 83,490 73,569
12,805 87,868 75,063
10,758 93,963 83,205
6,971 90,351 83,380
-3,450 79,128 82,578
2,394 96,836 94,442
4,229 113,662 109,433
2,590 124,670 122,080
-3,940 86,187 90,127
6,924 92,477 85,553
-966 91,305 92,271
-7,211 85,685 92,896
-14,038 84,459 98,497
-5,760 102,185 107,945
-12,193 110,749 122,942
-6,891 112,475 119,366
-12,125 100,647 112,772
-5,247 121,482 126,729
-3,563 133,324 136,887
-9,449 137,117 146,566
-17,872 115,029 132,901
-14,580 141,429 156,009
-8,508 148,074 156,582
-22,572 148,310 170,882
-38,628 121,073 159,701
-24,546 151,837 176,383
-31,768 165,389 197,157
-25,637 169,910 195,547
-39,068 141,089 180,157
-21,375 163,741 185,116
-26,588 170,290 196,878
-22,624 168,949 191,573
-37,176 140,747 177,922
-23,982 163,748 187,731
-27,347 171,624 198,972
-26,644 165,736 192,380

Volume Index (1995=100)

Exports
Y/Y
Imports
Y/Y
95.16
4.7%
82.07 -16.2%
104.64
4.5%
98.20 -6.6%
106.67 -3.6%
114.44 15.0%
91.85 -6.6%
127.67 31.1%
94.70 -0.5%
104.67 27.5%
119.64 14.3%
121.59 23.8%
125.34 17.5%
132.62 15.9%
102.54 11.6%
125.14 -2.0%
104.56 10.4%
112.92
7.9%
125.39
4.8%
118.88 -2.2%
125.17 -0.1%
129.85 -2.1%
108.80
6.1%
122.09 -2.4%
104.49 -0.1%
92.65 -18.0%
124.15 -1.0%
100.99 -15.0%
129.29
3.3%
105.48 -18.8%
132.47 21.8%
111.62 -8.6%
125.98 20.6%
96.88
4.6%
137.90 11.1%
108.83
7.8%
153.33 18.6%
124.22 17.8%
136.25
2.9%
125.15 12.1%
140.68 11.7%
118.07 21.9%
158.00 14.6%
119.90 10.2%
159.30
3.9%
115.41 -7.1%
151.09 10.9%
108.61 -13.2%
135.79 -3.5%
97.23 -17.7%
142.07 -10.1%
102.26 -14.7%
193.06 21.2%
107.81 -6.6%
183.33 21.3%
100.07 -7.9%
155.22 14.3%
92.11 -5.3%
179.74 26.5%
96.47 -5.7%
194.61
0.8%
102.13 -5.3%
192.71
5.1%
110.06 10.0%
184.18 18.7%
102.99 11.8%
204.81 13.9%
111.27 15.3%
223.36 14.8%
119.22 16.7%
220.39 14.4%
120.61
9.6%
202.57 10.0%
114.36 11.0%
226.90 10.8%
121.84
9.5%
246.54 10.4%
129.13
8.3%
234.43
6.4%
127.22
5.5%
219.69
8.5%
131.87 15.3%
223.42 -1.5%
138.53 13.7%
266.23
8.0%
156.33 21.1%
247.00
5.4%
156.69 23.2%
232.12
5.7%
158.47 20.2%
252.15 12.9%
163.77 18.2%
269.29
1.1%
187.04 19.6%
262.06
6.1%
190.09 21.3%
228.21 -1.7%
181.16 14.3%
267.36
6.0%
199.44 21.8%
278.72
3.5%
223.40 19.4%
246.87 -5.8%
202.77
6.7%
196.30 -14.0%
155.92 -13.9%
241.15 -9.8%
173.40 -13.1%
252.74 -9.3%
197.99 -11.4%
237.78 -3.7%
218.16
7.6%
226.48 15.4%
219.24 40.6%
257.86
6.9%
240.47 38.7%
281.32 11.3%
277.21 40.0%
269.20 13.2%
275.70 26.4%
235.55
4.0%
248.54 13.4%
273.77
6.2%
276.02 14.8%
292.81
4.1%
293.41
5.8%
279.19
3.7%
293.37
6.4%
251.15
6.6%
264.14
6.3%
266.81 -2.5%
280.24
1.5%
283.49 -3.2%
274.49 -6.4%
285.05
2.1%
294.71
0.5%
236.83 -5.7%
283.90
7.5%
283.64
6.3%
301.95
7.7%
292.38
3.1%
311.97 13.7%
300.94
5.6%
308.97
4.8%
249.12
5.2%
283.25 -0.2%
282.85 -0.3%
285.25 -5.5%
283.84 -2.9%
289.70 -7.1%
277.18 -7.9%
275.52 -10.8%
228.92 -8.1%
252.60 -10.8%
262.55 -7.2%
262.55 -8.0%
268.91 -5.3%
270.64 -6.6%
254.81 -8.1%
255.48 -7.3%