Tax: a matter of life and debt

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, July 02, 2013 From Print dition

120 !0 "0 2

Tax: a matter of life and debt The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

.n his bud'et s$ee%h Finan%e Minister .sha/ Dar de%lared that his 'o&ernment had 0inherited a bro1en e%onomy2- The main reason for this is that the %ountry3s tax system is bro1en- The failure to 'enerate domesti% resour%es is a ma4or fa%tor for the %ountry3s e%onomi% sta'nation and #hy the e%onomy is in the %riti%al #ard today-

Tax %olle%tion is in a shambles- This %risis is also s$a#nin' or %ontributin' to a number of other, inter5related %rises 6 mountin' and unsustainable $ubli% debt, hi'h inflation, deterioratin' $ubli% ser&i%es, erodin' $hysi%al infrastru%ture, lo# le&el of s$endin' on edu%ation and health and la%1 of $o#er5se%tor in&estment at a time #hen ener'y shorta'es are %ri$$lin' e%onomi% a%ti&ity and inhibitin' 'ro#th-

.n 2001, a tas1 for%e set u$ to reform the tax system held out a star1 #arnin': 0Pa1istan3s fis%al %risis is dee$- Taxes are insuffi%ient for debt ser&i%e and defen%e- .f the tax to (DP ratio does not in%rease si'nifi%antly Pa1istan %annot be 'o&erned effe%ti&ely, essential $ubli% ser&i%es %annot be deli&ered and hi'h inflation is ine&itable- 7eform of the tax administration is the sin'le most im$ortant e%onomi% tas1 for the 'o&ernment2-

This %ounsel has lon' been i'nored- The failure to mobilise tax re&enue to meet the %ountry3s

finan%in' re/uirements is at the heart of its %hroni% fis%al %risis- There is no tax %ulture in the %ountry- .ts absen%e is attributable to se&eral fa%tors: #ea1 $oliti%al #ill, an ine/uitous and narro#ly5based tax re'ime ram$ant #ith abuse, ex%lusion from the tax net of lar'e s#aths of the e%onomy, half5hearted reform efforts, $oor deli&ery of $ubli% ser&i%es and the ability of $o#erful e%onomi% and $oliti%al lobbies to th#art e&en modest tax5%olle%tion measures- The failure on the $art of su%%essi&e administrations to raise re&enue %an also be ex$lained in terms of a $ri&ile'entsia that refuses to $ay tax and o$$oses taxation, usin' in%reasin'ly dubious $retexts to $reser&e its e%onomi% and $oliti%al $o#er-

This failure has dri&en Pa1istan into a state of $er$etual finan%ial %rises- These ha&e been tem$orarily and $eriodi%ally 8resol&ed3 either by ex%essi&e domesti% borro#in' 6 #ith all its deleterious %onse/uen%es 6 and)or bailouts from abroad- The latter ha&e often been strate'i% $ayoffs for forei'n $oli%y beha&iour or $redi%ated on .slamabad3s $romise of e%onomi% reformThe re%ord sho#s that su%h $romises are for'otten as soon as frontloaded tran%hes are re%ei&ed from multilateral lenders-

The a&ailability of si'nifi%ant flo#s of external assistan%e has lon' a%ted as a disin%enti&e for tax reform- 9ith these and other %a$ital inflo#s no# dryin' u$, this so5%alled 8fallba%1 o$tion3 to fill the fis%al 'a$ may no lon'er be a&ailable- +tate ban1 and %ommer%ial ban1 borro#in' has also ser&ed as 8substitute3 for taxation, but at 'reat %ost to the e%onomy 6 8%ro#din' out3 the $ri&ate se%tor, inhibitin' 'ro#th, as #ell as im$osin' a 8tax3 on the $oor #ho are unable to hed'e a'ainst inflation-

x%essi&e borro#in' has saddled the %ountry #ith re%ord $ubli% debt 6 :! $er%ent of (DP- The $re&ious 'o&ernment earned the dubious distin%tion of borro#in' more durin' its tenure than the $re&ious :0 years $ut to'ether- For o&er a de%ade no# debt ser&i%in' and subsidies ha&e ex%eeded total federal and $ro&in%ial de&elo$ment s$endin'- .nterest $ayments ha&e also sur$assed defen%e as the sin'le lar'est item of bud'etary ex$enditure-

The %risis in tax re&enues is e&ident from the dismal statisti%s- Tax as a $er%enta'e of (DP fell to nine $er%ent in the $ast de%ade from around 11 $er%ent in the 1;;0s- <nd it has remained stubbornly stati% 6 amon' the lo#est in the #orld-

The number of in%ome5tax $ayers has a%tually dro$$ed from one $er%ent of the $o$ulation to 0-;2 $er%ent in the $ast fi&e years- .n 2011, 3-1 million $eo$le #ere re'istered #ith tax authorities and had national tax numbers =>T>s?- @et only half or 1-A million of them a%tually filed returns-

This fa%t is e&en more tellin' #hen set a'ainst data from the 2011 household sur&ey that %al%ulated the number of $eo$le #ho earned enou'h to $ay tax- Bnly 1" $er%ent of !-A million taxable Pa1istanis 6 one in six 6 are &erifiable tax$ayers- The rest do not $ay in%ome tax-

< more fundamental issue is the lar'e s#ath of the formal e%onomy that remains untaxed<'ri%ulture a%%ounts for around 21 $er%ent of (DP and em$loys !A $er%ent of the labour for%eCut it yields little more than one $er %ent of total re&enue- The ser&i%e se%tor, #hi%h no# %ontributes the lar'est share to (DP 6 around A0 $er%ent 6 %ontributes 4ust 1: $er%ent to re&enue- Bf o&er a million taxable retail outlets only about 1:0,000 are re'istered- Bf these less than 2D,000 $aid tax last year-

This means that at least "0 $er%ent of the formal e%onomy is untaxed, li'htly taxed or non5 %om$liant- .f the informal, undo%umented e%onomy is fa%tored in, an e&en lar'er $ro$ortion of the e%onomy is outside the tax net-

>ot only is the $resent tax re'ime narro#ly based, it is also ine/uitous, $uttin' a hea&ier burden by #ay of indire%t taxes on those least able to bear it, #hile offerin' the ri%h and $o#erful 8le'al3 es%a$e routes- The 8+7B re'ime3 is a s$e%ta%ular exam$le of this- +tatutory re'ulatory orders are administrati&e instruments throu'h #hi%h ad ho% exem$tions and #ai&ers are handed out+u%%essi&e 'o&ernments ha&e used these to 'rant exem$tions and %on%essions to s$e%ial interests, indi&iduals and se%tors-

This translates into billions in lost tax re&enue- Last year the >ational <ssembly3s Publi% <%%ounts Eommittee #as told that 7s:A0 billion #orth of exem$tions and tax #ai&ers #ere 'i&en in the $re&ious four years alone- This re'ime fosters the #orst form of %ronyism and u$ends the &ery notion of a le&el $layin' field-

<n unfair tax system is an im$ortant reason for lo# re&enue %olle%tion and $oor %om$lian%e7elati&ely hi'h rates of tax are im$osed on a narro# band of $eo$le and a fe# se%tors- The %or$orate se%tor for exam$le is the hi'hest %ontributor =:2 $er%ent? to dire%t tax re&enue- Cut non5%om$lian%e in %or$orate in%ome tax is also hi'h at AD $er%ent-

+ystemi% #ea1nesses in tax administration ha&e $rodu%ed ma4or 8lea1a'es3- The 2001 tas1 for%e found that A0 $er%ent of due taxes ne&er rea%h the treasury, illustratin' the $o#er of the

ri%h to defeat the la#- Bthers estimate that the e/ui&alent of F3 billion raised annually in re&enue ne&er ma1es it to the ex%he/uer be%ause of %ollusion bet#een the tax authorities and $o#erful 'rou$s-

The la%1 of $ro&in%ial tax effort has %om$ounded the re&enue %risis- Pro&in%es ma1e little or no effort to raise tax re&enue, from a'ri%ulture, ser&i%es and $ro$erty that lies in their 4urisdi%tion- <t less than 0-A $er%ent of (DP, $ro&in%ial re&enue funds only a modest $art of their s$endin' and instead en%oura'es fis%al re%1lessness-

The transfer of mu%h 'reater federally %olle%ted tax resour%es to the $ro&in%es under the "th >ational Finan%e Eommission a#ard #as #el%omed as a mu%h o&erdue exer%ise in fis%al de&olution- Cut failure to thin1 throu'h the fis%al %onse/uen%es, e&ol&e %lear rules and eli%it $ro&in%ial %ommitment to in%rease re&enue no# %onfronts the %ountry #ith the s$e%tre of endurin' federal bud'et defi%its dri&en by fis%al indis%i$line by the $ro&in%es- 9ho, if any one, #ill miti'ate these serious ris1s to the %ountry3s finan%ial stabilityG

To extri%ate the e%onomy from this fis%al mess and 'enerate the means for the %ountry3s e%onomi% $ro'ress, Pa1istan3s leaders ha&e to bite the tax bullet- 9ithout re&am$in' and broadenin' the tax re'ime, endin' exem$tions and loo$holes, brin'in' untaxed se%tors into the re&enue net and ensurin' that $ro&in%es substantially in%rease their re&enue, the %ountry %annot %hart a #ay out of a 'ro#in' fis%al %risis, o&er%ome e%onomi% sta'nation and re&erse the deterioration in $ubli% ser&i%e deli&ery-

This is the test that a#aits the PML5> 'o&ernment and its finan%e minister #ho raised ex$e%tations by announ%in' that 0the %ulture of exem$tions and %on%essions must end2- .ts $ersisten%e #ould %ertainly lea&e the e%onomy bro1en-

Lo'i% of one #orld

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, July 0;, 2013 From Print dition

1:; "D !: !

Lo'i% of one #orld The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

< number of re%ent boo1s ha&e usefully analysed the nature and %onse/uen%es of the on'oin' shift in the %entres and sour%es of 'lobal $o#er- From the Hde%line of the 9estH to the %omin' H%ontest for su$rema%yH bet#een the #orldHs t#o lar'est e%onomies and the notion of a (5Iero #orld, #here no one is in %har'e, there is mu%h di&ersity in $ers$e%ti&es about the dire%tion in #hi%h the #orld is headed-

+ome #riters bemoan the fa%t that the 9estHs hour of $o#er has $assed- Bthers %elebrate the rise of the rest- Many #orry about the H%omin' anar%hyH as the international system be%omes more multi$olar- +%holars assessin' 'lobal $oliti%s seem to di&ide bet#een the $essimists and o$timists- There is little a'reement amon' them about #hether the extraordinary %han'es s#ee$in' the #orld #ill ma1e it more or less stable, $rodu%e &olatility or historyHs most ho$eful $eriod for human %i&ilisation-

,ishore Mahbubani 4oins this debate as an o$timist- Cut he is also %lear5eyed about $resent %hallen'es- Jis ne# boo1 HThe (reat Eon&er'en%eH is as insi'htful as his earlier one, #hi%h dealt #ith <siaHs rise and offered an <sian $ers$e%ti&e to the 'lobal debate on the re%onfi'uration of $o#er- Jis latest boo1 has already stimulated rene#ed dis%ussion about ho# the #orld should be mana'ed in its %urrent %om$lex $hase-

Mahbubani %alls for K'eo$oliti%al #isdomK on the $art of 9estern nations, #ho %lin' to obsolete #ays of thin1in', but should no# share $o#er to 1ee$ $a%e #ith an interde$endent #orld #here their %lout has shrun1- Tryin' to $er$etuate their dominan%e of 'lobal institutions %an result in loss of le'itima%y, and international turbulen%e-

The +in'a$orean a%ademi% and former di$lomat, #ho ser&ed as his %ountryHs en&oy to the *nited >ations, offers a fas%inatin' tour dH horiLon of a #orld in $rofound %han'e- Je starts from the o$timisti% $remise that the #orld has #itnessed more $ositi&e %han'e in the $ast three

de%ades than in the last three hundred years- Je $oints to se&eral trends 6 de%line in $o&erty, fe#er #ars, s$read of edu%ation, ex$ansion of a 'lobal middle %lass and emer'en%e of a less une/ual #orld- <sia, he #rites, #ill soon a%%ount for the #orldHs lar'est middle %lass- These trends mean that more $eo$le a%ross the #orld are li&in' better and more $ea%eful li&es-

Mahbubani sees 'lobalisation as not only %reatin' a more inter%onne%ted and interde$endent #orld but also a Hone #orldH dynami%- Des$ite its di&ersity the 'lobal %ommunity has %ome to a'ree on Ka set of norms about ho# to %reate better so%ieties-K This is #hat he means by the H(reat Eon&er'en%eH, #hi%h also refle%ts li&in' standards of the 9est =12 $er%ent of the #orldHs $o$ulation? %on&er'in' #ith the rest =DD $er%ent?- .t is also manifested in the %on&er'en%e of interests, $er%e$tions and as$irations, and the fa%t that %itiLens no# breathe Kin a sin'le information uni&erseK- Mahbubani uses the meta$hor of a boat to des%ribe the Hone #orldH reality- The #orldHs %itiLens are sailin' in un%harted #aters in the same boat but #ith se$arate %abins and no %a$tain-

Jis main %on%ern is #ith the inability of institutions of 'lobal 'o&ernan%e to 1ee$ $a%e #ith these %on&er'en%es- Jis thesis is sim$le and %om$ellin'- .f the #orld has %han'ed so must our #ay of mana'in' it- Je #ants the international %ommunity to %a$italise on the 'lobal momentum to#ard H%on&er'en%eH by ada$tin' national systems and reformin' 'lobal institutions- The one #orld dynami% is Kunsto$$able and irre&ersibleK, but $oli%y ma1ers still o$erate #ith Kmental ma$s of the 1;th %enturyK- This inhibits a 'lobal res$onse to 'lobal $roblems- For him ne# mental ma$s mean balan%in' national interests #ith 'lobal %onsiderations and a%tin' in the %olle%ti&e interest-

Je does not minimise the obsta%les and Kdisru$ti&e e&entsK ahead and as1s #hether 'eo$oliti%s #ill derail %on&er'en%e- Je ans#ers by examinin' t#o %ontrary trends of %oo$eration and %om$etition that %o5exist today- Je then identifies the #orldHs tou'hest 'eo$oliti%al %hallen'es as: the <meri%a5Ehina relationshi$, +ino5.ndian relations, and the 'ulf bet#een .slam and the 9est- Je remains ho$eful about their future tra4e%tories be%ause in%enti&es to %oo$erate are 'reater than to %lash- Cut ea%h of those %hallen'in' relationshi$s #ill re/uire ad4ustments and $roblem sol&in'- Bn the latter %ount he ur'es a fair settlement of the .srael5Palestine $roblem and the .ranian issue-

The %rux of boo1 lies in examinin' #hy 'lobal 'o&ernan%e institutions are #ea1 and dysfun%tional #hen the #orld has a %ommon interest to stren'then them- .s this by desi'n or defaultG Mahbubani belie&es it is the first- Je ar'ues that it is 9estern nations that ha&e %hosen to 1ee$ multilateral institutions #ea1- They are also relu%tant to 'i&e u$ their domination of these institutions- This is e&ident from the fa%t that e&en today only a uro$ean %an head the .MF and an <meri%an %an lead the 9orld Can1-

<fter the +traus5,ann s%andal, Mahbubani says #estern hubris #as refle%ted in the ala%rity #ith #hi%h a Fren%h su%%essor #as a$$ointed- uro$e %ontinues to be o&er re$resented in many international or'anisations- Cut MahbubaniHs $rin%i$al fo%us is on the *> +e%urity Eoun%il #here 12 $er%ent of the #orldHs $o$ulation %ontrols :0 $er%ent seats in the #orldHs most $o#erful $oliti%al institution-

Je ar'ues %o'ently that #ith 9estern as%endan%y in the #orld %omin' to a %lose it is time to end the $oli%ies and $ra%ti%es of a by'one era- The 9est should learn to share $o#er in 'lobal institutions as its share in 'lobal (>P and $o$ulation has no# shrun1- .t must also o&er%ome its o$$osition to stren'thenin' 'lobal institutions- <meri%a, #rites Mahbubani, $ra%ti%es demo%ra%y at home, but o$$oses demo%ratisation of 'lobal institutions abroad-

Je ar'ues tren%hantly that if it on%e made strate'i% sense for the 9est to 1ee$ 'lobal institution #ea1 as it %ould defend itself unilaterally, it %an no lon'er do so in an en&ironment #here most $roblems re/uire multilateral %ollaboration- <s the #orld enters the era of H%on&er'en%eH, it is time, says Mahbubani, for the 9est to %orre%t its $ast strate'i% error in allo#in' short term, often narro#, s$e%ial interests to o&erride enli'htened lon'5term interests in de&elo$in' stron'er 'lobal institutions-

Je offers $ra'mati% su''estions to reform the *> system and identifies 1ey $rin%i$les for reform that balan%e re%o'nition of $o#er imbalan%es #ith the rule of la#- This %all for reform is a%%om$anied by su''estions to im$ro&e the 'lobal system 6 en%oura'e more 'lobal %on&ersation to brin' $eo$le to'ether, end ana%hronisti% $oli%ies and e&ol&e a 'lobal ethi%-

This lu%id boo1 is essential readin' for those interested in understandin' the far5rea%hin' $o#er shifts that are under#ay and #ho belie&e that the #orld needs robust and re$resentati&e institutions to mana'e it- Mahbubani sho#s ho# that %an be a%%om$lished-

<$art from the boo1Hs lar'er messa'e, there is instru%ti&e dis%ussion of other sub4e%ts, as for exam$le the im$a%t 6 or la%1 of it 6 of forei'n aid- Mahbubani %ites se&eral studies to dra# the soberin' %on%lusion that aid has hel$ed donors more than re%i$ients, and hindered not ad&an%ed $ro'ress- JeJJ lays bare ho# the arro'an%e and %ondes%ension of #estern aid5 'i&ers s$ea1s to their self5interestedness rather than bene&olen%e that is $ro$a'ated as a myth by #estern >(Bs and the media-

There is also a $er%e$ti&e dis%ussion of the differen%e bet#een <sian and 9estern minds9esterners he says, tend to #or1 #ithin Eartesian frame#or1s and ha&e a bla%1 and #hite &ie# of the #orldM KBne side is ri'ht and the other is #ron'K- The <sian mind is more %omfortable #ith %ontradi%tions and $aradoxesM Kboth sides of a %ontradi%tory $ro$osition %an be %orre%tK-

MahbubaniHs o&erall o$timism extends to Pa1istan, #hi%h he holds u$ as the exam$le of an .slami% nation that has endea&oured to establish the rule of rule e&en in the midst of its other %hallen'es- Je shines a li'ht on another as$e%t- K>o other Muslim %ountryK, he #rites, Khas as talented and as su%%essful a dias$ora as Pa1istan doesK- <nd this fa%t $ro&ides Kreal ho$e that Pa1istan %an itself thri&e in modernityK-

,ishore Mahbubani, The (reat Eon&er'en%e: <sia, the 9est and the Lo'i% of Bne 9orld, >e# @or1, Publi% <ffairs Coo1, 2013-

B$enin' bid for $ea%e

Dr Maleeha Lodhi---The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,Tuesday, June 2A, 2013 From Print dition

13; 1! D2 !

B$enin' bid for $ea%e Des$ite a falterin' start, the o$enin' of a Taliban offi%e in Doha raised ho$es of installin' a full5 fled'ed <f'han $ea%e $ro%ess- <lthou'h last #ee13s mo&e ran into early diffi%ulties, it nonetheless mar1ed a si'nifi%ant milestone in di$lomati% efforts aimed at a ne'otiated settlement of the t#el&e5year5old #ar-

.f $roof #as needed of the %om$li%ations of $ea%ema1in', it %ame #ithin hours of #hat #as meant to be a %arefully %horeo'ra$hed inau'uration of the Taliban3s $oliti%al offi%e- >o sooner had President Bbama des%ribed this as an 0im$ortant first ste$2 to#ards re%on%iliation at a (5D summit than <f'han President Jamid ,arLai announ%ed a boy%ott of the Natar $ro%ess- ,arLai also sus$ended tal1s on a se%urity deal aimed at a $ost5201! *+ military $resen%e in <f'hanistan-

,arLai3s fury o&er a de&elo$ment that #as lon' in the ma1in' mimi%1ed his mer%urial stan%e of the $ast t#o years 6 sin%e efforts to establish a ne'otiatin' %hannel in Natar 'ot under#ay, initially throu'h ba%1%hannel %onta%ts bet#een <meri%an and Taliban re$resentati&es- This time, ho#e&er, ,arLai3s an'er #as $rom$ted by the Taliban3s use of the 8.slami% mirates3 si'n and fla' at the offi%e #here they made the announ%ement- ,abul a%%used Natar and the *+ of &iolatin' understandin's that the offi%e #ould only be a &enue for $ea%e tal1s and not ha&e the a$$earan%e of a ri&al <f'han embassy-

.nstead of see1in' to /uietly resol&e the issue, the ,arLai administration #ent $ubli% in a dis$lay of ra'e and retributi&e a%tions- The banner be%ame the sour%e of immediate %ontention- Cut ,arLai3s fundamental $roblem #as in 4oinin' a $ro%ess that, if su%%essful, #ould ma1e him $oliti%ally irrele&ant-

9ithin a day the $la/ue #as remo&ed and the fla' lo#ered- 9ashin'ton a%ted /ui%1ly throu'h the Nataris and also mo&ed to $la%ate ,abul to $re&ent the $ro%ess from unra&ellin'- Thou'h ,arLai may ha&e been more dama'ed by the di$lomati% fra%as than the $ea%e $ro%ess se&eral %onse/uen%es follo#ed and the $ro%ess stalled- <n <meri%an statement in su$$ort of the offi%e #as $ut on hold, to #ait until the %oolin' of tem$ers and announ%ements from ,abul- The start of formal *+5Taliban tal1s #as delayed-

This sha1y be'innin' did not, ho#e&er, obs%ure the si'nifi%an%e of the Doha de&elo$ment or minimise the intense di$lomati% effort that #ent into it, in #hi%h Pa1istan $layed a &ital behind5 the5s%enes role- The o$enin' of the Doha offi%e re$resented the first %on%rete si'n of a #illin'ness to ne'otiate on the $art of the t#o $arties to the <f'han %onfli%t: the *+ and the Taliban- .t #as the stron'est si'nal yet of their interest in see1in' a $oliti%al end to the #ar- .t also mar1ed international re%o'nition of the Taliban as a le'itimate ne'otiatin' $artner-

.n return Taliban re$resentati&es read out a statement at the offi%e o$enin'- This %ontained t#o 1ey messa'es that 9ashin'ton lon' %alled for and #hi%h #ere re/uirements for the offi%e to

o$en- The first #as the underta1in' that <f'hanistan3s soil #ould not be used to 8harm3 and threaten other %ountriesM the se%ond #as the Taliban3s #illin'ness to 0meet =other? <f'hans2-

Coth sides ste$$ed ba%1 from their $re&ious $ositions to rea%h a'reement on the offi%e- The Taliban statement, #hi%h resembled $ast $ronoun%ements, did not /uite %ontain the lan'ua'e *+ offi%ials may ha&e #anted to affirm the Taliban3s $ubli% 8brea1 #ith <l5Naeda3- Cut it #as a%%e$ted by 9ashin'ton as 0the first ste$ in distan%in' them---from international terrorism2-

The most si'nifi%ant $oli%y shift in the $re5history of this de&elo$ment a%tually o%%urred in 2011 #hen the *+ turned its $re&ious three $re5%onditions for tal1s into ne'otiatin' out%omes: that the Taliban 8brea1 #ith <l5Naeda3, renoun%e &iolen%e and a%%e$t the <f'han %onstitution- *+ se%retary of state Jillary Elinton announ%ed this in a February 2011 s$ee%h, #hi%h for the first time also ex$li%itly endorsed dire%t tal1s #ith the Taliban- This follo#ed President Bbama3s June 2010 s$ee%h that a%1no#led'ed there #as no military solution in <f'hanistan-

The Taliban too sho#ed flexibility to se%ure the $oliti%al offi%e- .n Mar%h 2012 the Taliban abandoned $reliminary tal1s #ith *+ interlo%utors a%%usin' them of 'oin' ba%1 on $romises to release fi&e Taliban $risoners from (uantanamo that they %laimed #as $re&iously a'reed toThe ex%han'e of these detainees for the only <meri%an $risoner of #ar in Taliban %ustody #as su$$osed to be $art of a $a%1a'e of %onfiden%e5buildin' measures that #as to in%lude a Taliban statement disasso%iatin' from <l5Naeda- The tal1s bro1e do#n o&er ho# these ste$s should be se/uen%ed, #ith the Taliban insistin' on the $risoner s#a$ first- The deadlo%1 %ontributed to the 1D5month hiatus in dire%t *+5Taliban %onta%ts-

.n issuin' their statement at Doha, the Taliban a%%e$ted a se/uen%e on #hi%h their leaders had earlier demurred- This turnaround #as hel$ed in no small measure by Pa1istan3s efforts #ith the Taliban- These efforts intensified follo#in' the <$ril 2! meetin' in Crussels bet#een *+ +e%retary of +tate John ,erry and army %hief (eneral <shfa/ Par&eL ,ayani-

The Taliban #ere $ersuaded to a%%e$t a se/uen%e in #hi%h they #ould first issue the statement rather than insist on the $risoner release as a $re5re/uisite- The statement #ould also %on&ey Taliban #illin'ness to enter an intra5<f'han dialo'ue- This #as ex$e%ted to in%lude members of ,abul3s Ji'h Pea%e Eoun%il, on%e this body #as broadened- The Taliban3s ambi'uously5#orded statement made no referen%e to the JPE but it #as anti%i$ated that su%h tal1s #ould follo# sometime after the o$enin' round of *+5Taliban ne'otiations, #here the $risoner ex%han'e #ould to$ the a'enda-

.t too1 o&er t#o years of intense di$lomati% efforts to 'et to this $oint- There #ere se&eral missed o$$ortunities alon' the #ay- For exam$le in De%ember 2011, a'reement seemed to be at hand for sta1eholders to %onsider announ%in' the Doha offi%e at the Conn %onferen%e- Cut ,arLai3s fier%e o$$osition tor$edoed this- The im$ossible %onditions he set also be%ame stumblin' blo%1s subse/uently- For exam$le he insisted on an Mo* from Natar s$e%ifyin' terms for the offi%e as determined by him- >either the Nataris nor the <meri%ans obli'ed- President Bbama $re&ailed on ,arLai to dro$ this demand durin' his January 2013 9ashin'ton &isit, only to find him later #ri''le out of this- This $rom$ted freneti% 9hite Jouse efforts to #al1 ,arLai ba%1 to his %ommitment-

<nother reason for the di$lomati% im$asse of the $ast t#o years #as the Bbama administration3s &a%illation on the $risoner ex%han'e out of fear of a %on'ressional ba%1lashJad the $risoner s#a$ ha$$ened earlier the $ea%e $ro%ess #ould ha&e been set in motion before and ne'otiations #ould ha&e been further ahead- Bn%e the Taliban sus$ended tal1s last year their leaders too %ame under $ressure from the ran15and5file to 8#ait it out3 and not ma1e %on%essions-

The Natar $ro%ess #as re&i&ed only after Bbama3s re5ele%tion, %han'es in his national se%urity team and Pa1istan3s &i'orous inter%ession #ith 9ashin'ton in early 2013 to 'i&e the Doha tra%1 a de%isi&e $ush- 9hat in4e%ted ur'en%y into the effort #as the loomin' deadline of 201! #hen >ato %ombat troo$s de$art <f'hanistan-

The Doha offi%e is of %ourse 4ust the be'innin' of a diffi%ult 4ourney frau'ht #ith many obsta%lesThe immediate %hallen'e is to re&i&e the a'reement $resumed to ha&e been rea%hed earlier bet#een all sides about the rules for the Taliban offi%e and the se/uen%e of meetin's to formally laun%h the $ea%e $ro%ess- This means brin'in' ,arLai ba%1 on board to ensure he doesn3t derail the $ro%ess- .t also re/uires 'ettin' the Taliban to a'ree to tal1s #ith JPE re$resentati&es, initially $erha$s in their indi&idual %a$a%ity-

9ould *+ #arnin's that the Doha offi%e #ill be shut do#n if the Taliban do not a'ree be suffi%ient 8in%enti&e3 to 'et tal1s startedG Jo# and #hen #ill the detainees3 ex%han'e $ro%eedG That this has to be ta%1led #hile fi'htin' %ontinues in <f'hanistan #ill also ex$ose the fra'ile $ro%ess to turbulen%e-

Then there are /uestions beyond the immediate- 9hat 1ind of $oliti%al a%%ommodation is $ossible amon' $arties #ith little or no trust bet#een themG Jo# #ill differen%es o&er the <f'han %onstitution be re%on%iledG There are more /uestions than ans#ers, but then e&eryone

a%%e$ts that for'in' $ea%e #ill be harder than #a'in' #ar-

B$enin' bid for $ea%e

Dr Maleeha Lodhi---The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,Tuesday, June 2A, 2013 From Print dition

13; 1! D2 !

B$enin' bid for $ea%e Des$ite a falterin' start, the o$enin' of a Taliban offi%e in Doha raised ho$es of installin' a full5 fled'ed <f'han $ea%e $ro%ess- <lthou'h last #ee13s mo&e ran into early diffi%ulties, it nonetheless mar1ed a si'nifi%ant milestone in di$lomati% efforts aimed at a ne'otiated settlement of the t#el&e5year5old #ar-

.f $roof #as needed of the %om$li%ations of $ea%ema1in', it %ame #ithin hours of #hat #as meant to be a %arefully %horeo'ra$hed inau'uration of the Taliban3s $oliti%al offi%e- >o sooner had President Bbama des%ribed this as an 0im$ortant first ste$2 to#ards re%on%iliation at a (5D summit than <f'han President Jamid ,arLai announ%ed a boy%ott of the Natar $ro%ess- ,arLai also sus$ended tal1s on a se%urity deal aimed at a $ost5201! *+ military $resen%e in <f'hanistan-

,arLai3s fury o&er a de&elo$ment that #as lon' in the ma1in' mimi%1ed his mer%urial stan%e of the $ast t#o years 6 sin%e efforts to establish a ne'otiatin' %hannel in Natar 'ot under#ay, initially throu'h ba%1%hannel %onta%ts bet#een <meri%an and Taliban re$resentati&es- This time, ho#e&er, ,arLai3s an'er #as $rom$ted by the Taliban3s use of the 8.slami% mirates3 si'n and fla' at the offi%e #here they made the announ%ement- ,abul a%%used Natar and the *+ of &iolatin' understandin's that the offi%e #ould only be a &enue for $ea%e tal1s and not ha&e the a$$earan%e of a ri&al <f'han embassy-

.nstead of see1in' to /uietly resol&e the issue, the ,arLai administration #ent $ubli% in a dis$lay of ra'e and retributi&e a%tions- The banner be%ame the sour%e of immediate %ontention- Cut ,arLai3s fundamental $roblem #as in 4oinin' a $ro%ess that, if su%%essful, #ould ma1e him $oliti%ally irrele&ant-

9ithin a day the $la/ue #as remo&ed and the fla' lo#ered- 9ashin'ton a%ted /ui%1ly throu'h the Nataris and also mo&ed to $la%ate ,abul to $re&ent the $ro%ess from unra&ellin'- Thou'h ,arLai may ha&e been more dama'ed by the di$lomati% fra%as than the $ea%e $ro%ess se&eral %onse/uen%es follo#ed and the $ro%ess stalled- <n <meri%an statement in su$$ort of the offi%e #as $ut on hold, to #ait until the %oolin' of tem$ers and announ%ements from ,abul- The start of formal *+5Taliban tal1s #as delayed-

This sha1y be'innin' did not, ho#e&er, obs%ure the si'nifi%an%e of the Doha de&elo$ment or minimise the intense di$lomati% effort that #ent into it, in #hi%h Pa1istan $layed a &ital behind5 the5s%enes role- The o$enin' of the Doha offi%e re$resented the first %on%rete si'n of a #illin'ness to ne'otiate on the $art of the t#o $arties to the <f'han %onfli%t: the *+ and the Taliban- .t #as the stron'est si'nal yet of their interest in see1in' a $oliti%al end to the #ar- .t also mar1ed international re%o'nition of the Taliban as a le'itimate ne'otiatin' $artner-

.n return Taliban re$resentati&es read out a statement at the offi%e o$enin'- This %ontained t#o 1ey messa'es that 9ashin'ton lon' %alled for and #hi%h #ere re/uirements for the offi%e to o$en- The first #as the underta1in' that <f'hanistan3s soil #ould not be used to 8harm3 and threaten other %ountriesM the se%ond #as the Taliban3s #illin'ness to 0meet =other? <f'hans2-

Coth sides ste$$ed ba%1 from their $re&ious $ositions to rea%h a'reement on the offi%e- The Taliban statement, #hi%h resembled $ast $ronoun%ements, did not /uite %ontain the lan'ua'e *+ offi%ials may ha&e #anted to affirm the Taliban3s $ubli% 8brea1 #ith <l5Naeda3- Cut it #as a%%e$ted by 9ashin'ton as 0the first ste$ in distan%in' them---from international terrorism2-

The most si'nifi%ant $oli%y shift in the $re5history of this de&elo$ment a%tually o%%urred in 2011 #hen the *+ turned its $re&ious three $re5%onditions for tal1s into ne'otiatin' out%omes: that the Taliban 8brea1 #ith <l5Naeda3, renoun%e &iolen%e and a%%e$t the <f'han %onstitution- *+ se%retary of state Jillary Elinton announ%ed this in a February 2011 s$ee%h, #hi%h for the first time also ex$li%itly endorsed dire%t tal1s #ith the Taliban- This follo#ed President Bbama3s June 2010 s$ee%h that a%1no#led'ed there #as no military solution in <f'hanistan-

The Taliban too sho#ed flexibility to se%ure the $oliti%al offi%e- .n Mar%h 2012 the Taliban abandoned $reliminary tal1s #ith *+ interlo%utors a%%usin' them of 'oin' ba%1 on $romises to release fi&e Taliban $risoners from (uantanamo that they %laimed #as $re&iously a'reed toThe ex%han'e of these detainees for the only <meri%an $risoner of #ar in Taliban %ustody #as su$$osed to be $art of a $a%1a'e of %onfiden%e5buildin' measures that #as to in%lude a Taliban statement disasso%iatin' from <l5Naeda- The tal1s bro1e do#n o&er ho# these ste$s should be se/uen%ed, #ith the Taliban insistin' on the $risoner s#a$ first- The deadlo%1 %ontributed to the 1D5month hiatus in dire%t *+5Taliban %onta%ts-

.n issuin' their statement at Doha, the Taliban a%%e$ted a se/uen%e on #hi%h their leaders had earlier demurred- This turnaround #as hel$ed in no small measure by Pa1istan3s efforts #ith the Taliban- These efforts intensified follo#in' the <$ril 2! meetin' in Crussels bet#een *+ +e%retary of +tate John ,erry and army %hief (eneral <shfa/ Par&eL ,ayani-

The Taliban #ere $ersuaded to a%%e$t a se/uen%e in #hi%h they #ould first issue the statement rather than insist on the $risoner release as a $re5re/uisite- The statement #ould also %on&ey Taliban #illin'ness to enter an intra5<f'han dialo'ue- This #as ex$e%ted to in%lude members of ,abul3s Ji'h Pea%e Eoun%il, on%e this body #as broadened- The Taliban3s ambi'uously5#orded statement made no referen%e to the JPE but it #as anti%i$ated that su%h tal1s #ould follo# sometime after the o$enin' round of *+5Taliban ne'otiations, #here the $risoner ex%han'e #ould to$ the a'enda-

.t too1 o&er t#o years of intense di$lomati% efforts to 'et to this $oint- There #ere se&eral missed o$$ortunities alon' the #ay- For exam$le in De%ember 2011, a'reement seemed to be at hand for sta1eholders to %onsider announ%in' the Doha offi%e at the Conn %onferen%e- Cut ,arLai3s fier%e o$$osition tor$edoed this- The im$ossible %onditions he set also be%ame stumblin' blo%1s subse/uently- For exam$le he insisted on an Mo* from Natar s$e%ifyin' terms for the offi%e as determined by him- >either the Nataris nor the <meri%ans obli'ed- President Bbama $re&ailed on ,arLai to dro$ this demand durin' his January 2013 9ashin'ton &isit, only to find him later #ri''le out of this- This $rom$ted freneti% 9hite Jouse efforts to #al1 ,arLai ba%1 to his %ommitment-

<nother reason for the di$lomati% im$asse of the $ast t#o years #as the Bbama administration3s &a%illation on the $risoner ex%han'e out of fear of a %on'ressional ba%1lashJad the $risoner s#a$ ha$$ened earlier the $ea%e $ro%ess #ould ha&e been set in motion before and ne'otiations #ould ha&e been further ahead- Bn%e the Taliban sus$ended tal1s last year their leaders too %ame under $ressure from the ran15and5file to 8#ait it out3 and not ma1e

%on%essions-

The Natar $ro%ess #as re&i&ed only after Bbama3s re5ele%tion, %han'es in his national se%urity team and Pa1istan3s &i'orous inter%ession #ith 9ashin'ton in early 2013 to 'i&e the Doha tra%1 a de%isi&e $ush- 9hat in4e%ted ur'en%y into the effort #as the loomin' deadline of 201! #hen >ato %ombat troo$s de$art <f'hanistan-

The Doha offi%e is of %ourse 4ust the be'innin' of a diffi%ult 4ourney frau'ht #ith many obsta%lesThe immediate %hallen'e is to re&i&e the a'reement $resumed to ha&e been rea%hed earlier bet#een all sides about the rules for the Taliban offi%e and the se/uen%e of meetin's to formally laun%h the $ea%e $ro%ess- This means brin'in' ,arLai ba%1 on board to ensure he doesn3t derail the $ro%ess- .t also re/uires 'ettin' the Taliban to a'ree to tal1s #ith JPE re$resentati&es, initially $erha$s in their indi&idual %a$a%ity-

9ould *+ #arnin's that the Doha offi%e #ill be shut do#n if the Taliban do not a'ree be suffi%ient 8in%enti&e3 to 'et tal1s startedG Jo# and #hen #ill the detainees3 ex%han'e $ro%eedG That this has to be ta%1led #hile fi'htin' %ontinues in <f'hanistan #ill also ex$ose the fra'ile $ro%ess to turbulen%e-

Then there are /uestions beyond the immediate- 9hat 1ind of $oliti%al a%%ommodation is $ossible amon' $arties #ith little or no trust bet#een themG Jo# #ill differen%es o&er the <f'han %onstitution be re%on%iledG There are more /uestions than ans#ers, but then e&eryone a%%e$ts that for'in' $ea%e #ill be harder than #a'in' #ar-

B$enin' bid for $ea%e

Dr Maleeha Lodhi---The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,Tuesday, June 2A, 2013 From Print dition

13; 1! D2 !

B$enin' bid for $ea%e Des$ite a falterin' start, the o$enin' of a Taliban offi%e in Doha raised ho$es of installin' a full5 fled'ed <f'han $ea%e $ro%ess- <lthou'h last #ee13s mo&e ran into early diffi%ulties, it nonetheless mar1ed a si'nifi%ant milestone in di$lomati% efforts aimed at a ne'otiated settlement of the t#el&e5year5old #ar-

.f $roof #as needed of the %om$li%ations of $ea%ema1in', it %ame #ithin hours of #hat #as meant to be a %arefully %horeo'ra$hed inau'uration of the Taliban3s $oliti%al offi%e- >o sooner had President Bbama des%ribed this as an 0im$ortant first ste$2 to#ards re%on%iliation at a (5D summit than <f'han President Jamid ,arLai announ%ed a boy%ott of the Natar $ro%ess- ,arLai also sus$ended tal1s on a se%urity deal aimed at a $ost5201! *+ military $resen%e in <f'hanistan-

,arLai3s fury o&er a de&elo$ment that #as lon' in the ma1in' mimi%1ed his mer%urial stan%e of the $ast t#o years 6 sin%e efforts to establish a ne'otiatin' %hannel in Natar 'ot under#ay, initially throu'h ba%1%hannel %onta%ts bet#een <meri%an and Taliban re$resentati&es- This time, ho#e&er, ,arLai3s an'er #as $rom$ted by the Taliban3s use of the 8.slami% mirates3 si'n and fla' at the offi%e #here they made the announ%ement- ,abul a%%used Natar and the *+ of &iolatin' understandin's that the offi%e #ould only be a &enue for $ea%e tal1s and not ha&e the a$$earan%e of a ri&al <f'han embassy-

.nstead of see1in' to /uietly resol&e the issue, the ,arLai administration #ent $ubli% in a dis$lay of ra'e and retributi&e a%tions- The banner be%ame the sour%e of immediate %ontention- Cut ,arLai3s fundamental $roblem #as in 4oinin' a $ro%ess that, if su%%essful, #ould ma1e him $oliti%ally irrele&ant-

9ithin a day the $la/ue #as remo&ed and the fla' lo#ered- 9ashin'ton a%ted /ui%1ly throu'h the Nataris and also mo&ed to $la%ate ,abul to $re&ent the $ro%ess from unra&ellin'- Thou'h ,arLai may ha&e been more dama'ed by the di$lomati% fra%as than the $ea%e $ro%ess se&eral %onse/uen%es follo#ed and the $ro%ess stalled- <n <meri%an statement in su$$ort of the offi%e #as $ut on hold, to #ait until the %oolin' of tem$ers and announ%ements from ,abul- The start of formal *+5Taliban tal1s #as delayed-

This sha1y be'innin' did not, ho#e&er, obs%ure the si'nifi%an%e of the Doha de&elo$ment or minimise the intense di$lomati% effort that #ent into it, in #hi%h Pa1istan $layed a &ital behind5 the5s%enes role- The o$enin' of the Doha offi%e re$resented the first %on%rete si'n of a #illin'ness to ne'otiate on the $art of the t#o $arties to the <f'han %onfli%t: the *+ and the Taliban- .t #as the stron'est si'nal yet of their interest in see1in' a $oliti%al end to the #ar- .t also mar1ed international re%o'nition of the Taliban as a le'itimate ne'otiatin' $artner-

.n return Taliban re$resentati&es read out a statement at the offi%e o$enin'- This %ontained t#o 1ey messa'es that 9ashin'ton lon' %alled for and #hi%h #ere re/uirements for the offi%e to o$en- The first #as the underta1in' that <f'hanistan3s soil #ould not be used to 8harm3 and threaten other %ountriesM the se%ond #as the Taliban3s #illin'ness to 0meet =other? <f'hans2-

Coth sides ste$$ed ba%1 from their $re&ious $ositions to rea%h a'reement on the offi%e- The Taliban statement, #hi%h resembled $ast $ronoun%ements, did not /uite %ontain the lan'ua'e *+ offi%ials may ha&e #anted to affirm the Taliban3s $ubli% 8brea1 #ith <l5Naeda3- Cut it #as a%%e$ted by 9ashin'ton as 0the first ste$ in distan%in' them---from international terrorism2-

The most si'nifi%ant $oli%y shift in the $re5history of this de&elo$ment a%tually o%%urred in 2011 #hen the *+ turned its $re&ious three $re5%onditions for tal1s into ne'otiatin' out%omes: that the Taliban 8brea1 #ith <l5Naeda3, renoun%e &iolen%e and a%%e$t the <f'han %onstitution- *+ se%retary of state Jillary Elinton announ%ed this in a February 2011 s$ee%h, #hi%h for the first time also ex$li%itly endorsed dire%t tal1s #ith the Taliban- This follo#ed President Bbama3s June 2010 s$ee%h that a%1no#led'ed there #as no military solution in <f'hanistan-

The Taliban too sho#ed flexibility to se%ure the $oliti%al offi%e- .n Mar%h 2012 the Taliban abandoned $reliminary tal1s #ith *+ interlo%utors a%%usin' them of 'oin' ba%1 on $romises to release fi&e Taliban $risoners from (uantanamo that they %laimed #as $re&iously a'reed toThe ex%han'e of these detainees for the only <meri%an $risoner of #ar in Taliban %ustody #as su$$osed to be $art of a $a%1a'e of %onfiden%e5buildin' measures that #as to in%lude a Taliban statement disasso%iatin' from <l5Naeda- The tal1s bro1e do#n o&er ho# these ste$s should be se/uen%ed, #ith the Taliban insistin' on the $risoner s#a$ first- The deadlo%1 %ontributed to the 1D5month hiatus in dire%t *+5Taliban %onta%ts-

.n issuin' their statement at Doha, the Taliban a%%e$ted a se/uen%e on #hi%h their leaders had earlier demurred- This turnaround #as hel$ed in no small measure by Pa1istan3s efforts #ith the Taliban- These efforts intensified follo#in' the <$ril 2! meetin' in Crussels bet#een *+ +e%retary of +tate John ,erry and army %hief (eneral <shfa/ Par&eL ,ayani-

The Taliban #ere $ersuaded to a%%e$t a se/uen%e in #hi%h they #ould first issue the statement rather than insist on the $risoner release as a $re5re/uisite- The statement #ould also %on&ey Taliban #illin'ness to enter an intra5<f'han dialo'ue- This #as ex$e%ted to in%lude members of ,abul3s Ji'h Pea%e Eoun%il, on%e this body #as broadened- The Taliban3s ambi'uously5#orded statement made no referen%e to the JPE but it #as anti%i$ated that su%h tal1s #ould follo# sometime after the o$enin' round of *+5Taliban ne'otiations, #here the $risoner ex%han'e #ould to$ the a'enda-

.t too1 o&er t#o years of intense di$lomati% efforts to 'et to this $oint- There #ere se&eral missed o$$ortunities alon' the #ay- For exam$le in De%ember 2011, a'reement seemed to be at hand for sta1eholders to %onsider announ%in' the Doha offi%e at the Conn %onferen%e- Cut ,arLai3s fier%e o$$osition tor$edoed this- The im$ossible %onditions he set also be%ame stumblin' blo%1s subse/uently- For exam$le he insisted on an Mo* from Natar s$e%ifyin' terms for the offi%e as determined by him- >either the Nataris nor the <meri%ans obli'ed- President Bbama $re&ailed on ,arLai to dro$ this demand durin' his January 2013 9ashin'ton &isit, only to find him later #ri''le out of this- This $rom$ted freneti% 9hite Jouse efforts to #al1 ,arLai ba%1 to his %ommitment-

<nother reason for the di$lomati% im$asse of the $ast t#o years #as the Bbama administration3s &a%illation on the $risoner ex%han'e out of fear of a %on'ressional ba%1lashJad the $risoner s#a$ ha$$ened earlier the $ea%e $ro%ess #ould ha&e been set in motion before and ne'otiations #ould ha&e been further ahead- Bn%e the Taliban sus$ended tal1s last year their leaders too %ame under $ressure from the ran15and5file to 8#ait it out3 and not ma1e %on%essions-

The Natar $ro%ess #as re&i&ed only after Bbama3s re5ele%tion, %han'es in his national se%urity team and Pa1istan3s &i'orous inter%ession #ith 9ashin'ton in early 2013 to 'i&e the Doha tra%1 a de%isi&e $ush- 9hat in4e%ted ur'en%y into the effort #as the loomin' deadline of 201! #hen >ato %ombat troo$s de$art <f'hanistan-

The Doha offi%e is of %ourse 4ust the be'innin' of a diffi%ult 4ourney frau'ht #ith many obsta%lesThe immediate %hallen'e is to re&i&e the a'reement $resumed to ha&e been rea%hed earlier bet#een all sides about the rules for the Taliban offi%e and the se/uen%e of meetin's to formally laun%h the $ea%e $ro%ess- This means brin'in' ,arLai ba%1 on board to ensure he doesn3t derail the $ro%ess- .t also re/uires 'ettin' the Taliban to a'ree to tal1s #ith JPE re$resentati&es, initially $erha$s in their indi&idual %a$a%ity-

9ould *+ #arnin's that the Doha offi%e #ill be shut do#n if the Taliban do not a'ree be suffi%ient 8in%enti&e3 to 'et tal1s startedG Jo# and #hen #ill the detainees3 ex%han'e $ro%eedG That this has to be ta%1led #hile fi'htin' %ontinues in <f'hanistan #ill also ex$ose the fra'ile $ro%ess to turbulen%e-

Then there are /uestions beyond the immediate- 9hat 1ind of $oliti%al a%%ommodation is $ossible amon' $arties #ith little or no trust bet#een themG Jo# #ill differen%es o&er the <f'han %onstitution be re%on%iledG There are more /uestions than ans#ers, but then e&eryone a%%e$ts that for'in' $ea%e #ill be harder than #a'in' #ar-

The other emer'en%y

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, June 1D, 2013 From Print dition

2:3 12! 10: 10

The other emer'en%y The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-The ne# 'o&ernment has mo&ed #ith s$eed and determination to ta%1le the %ountry3s ener'y emer'en%y- .t no# needs to sho# the same resol&e to address Pa1istan3s edu%ation %risis-

>o issue is more %onse/uential for Pa1istan3s future than transformation in the %o&era'e and /uality of edu%ation #e offer to our %hildren- >o sin'le issue has the $otential to %han'e the %ountry3s destiny than in&estment in edu%ation- >o other issue eli%its 'reater a'reement a%ross the $oliti%al and so%ial s$e%trum than that of raisin' litera%y and im$ro&in' the /uality of human %a$ital-

@et Pa1istan has %hroni%ally unders$ent on edu%ation- <t less than t#o $er%ent of (DP this today is the lo#est in +outh <sia- The %ountry fi'ures amon' the bottom lea'ue of nations in edu%ation s$endin'- Pa1istan has the #orld3s se%ond lar'est number of %hildren #ho do not 'o to s%hool- T#enty5fi&e million %hildren from fi&e to sixteen years of a'e are out of s%hool- T#o5 thirds of them are 'irls-

This is una%%e$table- Most $oliti%al leaders #ould a'ree- <ll $oliti%al $arties a%1no#led'e edu%ation3s $i&otal role for the %ountry3s e%onomi% $ro'ress- &ery one of them $romised in their ele%tion manifestos to substantially in%rease edu%ation s$endin'- They also %on%urred that edu%ation should be treated as a national emer'en%y-

+imilar $oliti%al %ommitments in the $ast ha&e ho#e&er failed to translate into $oli%y a%tion 6 in allo%ation of finan%ial resour%es, in&estment in basi% edu%ation and exe%ution of a %om$rehensi&e $lan to 'i&e e&ery Pa1istani %hild the ri'ht to an edu%ation-

&en thou'h Pun4ab3s %hief minister, +hahbaL +harif, has si'naled he #ill a%%ord edu%ation to$ $riority, the %entral 'o&ernment3s %ommitment to this 'oal #ill be tested in the months ahead, as #ill that of all $ro&in%ial administrations- The $ro&in%ial bud'ets #ill be the first test of this-

Jas the reorderin' of edu%ation res$onsibilities by the 1Dth <mendment be%ome a %om$li%atin' fa%tor in meetin' the edu%ation %hallen'eG @es and >o- >o, be%ause e&en before the amendment, #hi%h de&ol&ed more $o#er to the $ro&in%es, 4urisdi%tion o&er the finan%in' and runnin' of s%hools and %olle'es as #ell as re%ruitment and trainin' of tea%hers lay #ith $ro&in%ial 'o&ernments- >othin' sto$$ed $ro&in%es then from allo%atin' more resour%es to edu%ation- <nd nothin' stands in the #ay no#- .n fa%t $ro&in%ial 'o&ernments today ha&e more resour%es at their dis$osal than1s to the last >ational Finan%e Eommission <#ard-

Cut it is also true that the 1Dth <mendment has left se&eral 1ey /uestions unans#ered- The amendment transferred %arte blan%he all of the %enter3s remainin' edu%ation fun%tions to the $ro&in%es 6 ex%e$t hi'her edu%ation and %oordination of international de&elo$ment assistan%eThe de&ol&ed fun%tions in%lude the res$onsibility to de&elo$ a national %urri%ulum, lay do#n and e&aluate standards and re$ort on national edu%ation statisti%s-

Jo#e&er #orthy the de&olution aim, s#ee$in' transfer of res$onsibility for the %urri%ulum,

standard5settin' and re$ortin', raises &exed /uestions about ho#, in the future, /uality assuran%e and national ben%hmar1in' #ould be a%hie&ed- 9hat #ould be the institutional frame#or1 to re$ort 1ey indi%ators on the status of edu%ationG Jo# #ould a %ommon national %urri%ulum be e&ol&edG 9ithout a federal %oordinatin' role #ill $ro&in%ial %urri%ulum framin' not run the ris1 of en'enderin' %onfusion and institutin' une&en or dis$arate standardsG 9ho #ill be Pa1istan3s main interlo%utor for international de&elo$ment assistan%eG

<bo&e all, #ho #ill be res$onsible for im$lementin' the %onstitutional obli'ation enshrined in the 1Dth <mendment: the ri'ht of e&ery %hild to an edu%ation- The amendment added <rti%le 2A< to the %onstitution- This says: 0the state shall $ro&ide free and %om$ulsory edu%ation to all %hildren of the a'e of fi&e to sixteen years2- .f there are 2A million instan%es of &iolation of this arti%le e&ery sin'le day, #ho #ill ste$ in to $re&ent thisG +houldn3t it be the federal 'o&ernment that assumes $rimary res$onsibility to im$lement this 6 ta1in' the lead and as1in' $ro&in%es to %om$ly, e&en as both #ould ha&e to be the %o5'uarantors of that e/uityG

This in turn raises the /uestion of ho# to a%%om$lish this as #ell as ensure a'reement amon' $ro&in%es on %ommon minimum standards- For a start, the federal 'o&ernment %annot abdi%ate its broader role or use the 1Dth <mendment as an alibi to $retend it has no res$onsibility other than for hi'her edu%ation- .f as$e%ts of the 1Dth <mendment 6 %on%ernin' the %urri%ulum and establishin' national standards 6 ha&e to be re&ie#ed, so be it- < 'o&ernment #ith su%h a handsome ma4ority in the national $arliament should not shy a#ay from this-

>o federation in the #orld abandons its role in su%h a %ru%ial area or absol&es itself of the need to $lay an o&errea%hin', %oordinatin' fun%tion to ensure balan%ed edu%ation de&elo$ment, maintain /uality and o&ersi'ht o&er %learly s$e%ified, %ommon standards- 9here there are dis$arities in $ro&in%ial %a$a%ity the %entral 'o&ernment also has to a%t &i'orously to remo&e ine/uities, %orre%t une/ual a%%ess or 'ender imbalan%e- This is $arti%ularly im$ortant in a %ontext of $ro&in%ial dis$arity in edu%ational le&els-

.t is for the ne# federal 'o&ernment to %onsider #hether it %an $lay this role throu'h existin' institutions 6 the Eoun%il of Eommon .nterests 6 or %reate an a$$ro$riate ne# me%hanism, a %ommission or %oun%il throu'h the EE., to $erform its %onstitutional obli'ation to send e&ery %hild to s%hool- The %entral 'o&ernment %an also ta1e the lead in $ersuadin' $ro&in%ial 'o&ernments to de&ote a lar'er $ro$ortion of their resour%es a&ailable under the >FE a#ard to edu%ation 6 e&en %ondition enhan%ed finan%ial transfers in the next a#ard to %ommitments to in%rease edu%ation s$endin'-

9hi%he&er $ath the %entre may %hoose to follo# 6 in%ludin' re&isitin' $ro&isions of the 1Dth <mendment 6 its a%tions should be informed by the re%o'nition that edu%ation for all is a strate'i% im$erati&e not 4ust a desirable so%ial ob4e%ti&e- .t should %hart a %lear $oli%y $ath to a%hie&e full $rimary s%hool enrollment and hi'her enrollment in se%ondary and uni&ersity edu%ation #ithin a time5bound frame#or1- <bo&e all it must re4e%t the short5termism that has %hara%terised e&ery $ast 'o&ernment3s a$$roa%h and exa%ted a hi'h $ri%e in the edu%ation se%tor-

du%ation lies at the heart of &irtually all the %hallen'es the %ountry fa%es- .t is the 1ey to unlo%1 almost e&ery $roblem 6 e%onomi% de&elo$ment, international %om$etiti&eness, so%ial $ro'ress and inno&ation, %ounterin' extremism, $romotin' a more tolerant and enli'htened so%iety, and of %ourse deli&erin' on the so%ial %ontra%t to the $eo$le- Juman %a$ital is the /uintessential in&estment in the %ountry3s future 6 a transformational resour%e that %an %han'e li&es and establish the basis for a $ros$erous and se%ure Pa1istan-

There is an e&en more %om$ellin' reason to transform the edu%ation system and $ro&ide s1ills to youn' $eo$le- Pa1istan today is in the midst of a demo'ra$hi% transition- .ts #or1in'5a'e $o$ulation is set to double in the next t#enty years- These youn' $eo$le should be a &ital resour%e for the %ountry 6 an o$$ortunity- Cut they are $ourin' into the 4obs mar1et at a be#ilderin' $a%e- Thirty5six million more 4obs need to be %reated by the e%onomy in the next ten years alone-

9hether this be%omes a demo'ra$hi% di&idend or disaster #ill de$end on the %ountry3s ability to $ro&ide these youn' $eo$le edu%ational o$$ortunities and e/ui$ them #ith the s1ills and trainin' to find #or1- .f the s%ale and /uality of edu%ation is substantially ex$anded Pa1istan #ill be $oised for a demo'ra$hi% boom- Cut the re&erse side of a boom is a doomsday s%enario, in #hi%h a youn' $o$ulation, fa%in' a 4obless and ho$eless future, %an be%ome the sour%e of so%ial instability and turmoil- < failed demo'ra$hi% transition %an lead to dire %onse/uen%es, #hi%h %an $ose a serious threat to national se%urity-

.n >o&ember 1;!" an <ll Pa1istan du%ation Eonferen%e %on%luded that edu%ation #ould be %riti%al to Pa1istan3s &iability as a state- This e%hoed the #ords of Nuaid5e5<Lam Muhammad <li Jinnah #ho said, 0 du%ation is a matter of life and death for our %ountry2- Lon' disre'arded, this %ounsel %an no# be i'nored only at 'reat $eril to the %ountry- < dramati%ally im$ro&ed set of edu%ational out%omes is &ital for the %ountry to sur&i&e and thri&e 6 and also to meet the %om$lex and dauntin' %hallen'es of the 21st %entury-

Po#er and $eril

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, June 11, 2013 From Print dition

11D !0 A0 3

Po#er and $eril The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

9ant to understand #hy 'o&ernan%e is mu%h tou'her than it has e&er been in the $astG 9hy 'o&ernments and %om$anies find it harder to ta1e timely and effe%ti&e de%isionsG 9hy national and 'lobal $roblems ha&e be%ome more %om$lex but the means to address them are 'reatly diminishedG

< ne# boo1 by Moises >aim, the OeneLuelan5born former editor of Forei'n Poli%y ma'aLine, $ro&ides a %om$ellin' ans#er- The author %hallen'es readers to re&ie# the #ay they thin1 about $o#er and re5%on%e$tualiLe this in the li'ht of $rofound and ra$id %han'es under#ay in e&ery area of human life- Jis %entral thesis is that $o#er is not merely shiftin' and dis$ersin', but also be%omin' e$hemeral, feeble and harder to exer%ise- 0Those in $o#er are more %onstrained in #hat they %an do #ith it2, he asserts-

This may seem o&erstated but as1 anyone #ho runs a %om$any or %ountry and they #ill li1ely a'ree, $ointin' to diffi%ulties in 'ettin' thin's done or exe%utin' #hat seem to be #ell5laid $lans>aim /uotes se&eral #orld leaders #ho endorse his 1ey messa'e: 0the $o#erful are ex$erien%in' 'reater limits on their $o#er2-

Jis boo1 is an im$ortant %ontribution to the debate on $o#er that has lon' $reo%%u$ied thin1ers

and $hiloso$hers and no# a%%ounts for a &ast body of s%holarshi$- <mon' the most influential fi'ures in the %ontem$orary debate is Jose$h >ye, #hose seminal boo1 in 1;;0 introdu%ed the notion of 8soft3 $o#er3 6 the idea that attra%tion of a %ountry3s ideas and %ulture is as im$ortant as the 8hard $o#er3 of tan'ibles su%h as military or e%onomi% resour%es- This not only entered the lexi%on of international $oliti%s but also the $ra%ti%e of state%raft and di$loma%y-

>aim doesn3t 4ust 4oin the %on&ersation about the %han'in' nature of $o#er- Je see1s to reframe it by ar'uin' that $ers$e%ti&es about #hether 8soft3 $o#er is dis$la%in' 8hard3 $o#er are in%om$lete- They obs%ure understandin' of ho# $o#er itself is dilutin' or 0sli$$in' #ay2 6 easy to obtain but harder to 1ee$ and exer%ise- Je %hallen'es another $ers$e%ti&e- 09e 1no# that $o#er is shiftin' from bra#n to brain, from north to south, #est to east, from old %or$orate behemoths to a'ile start5u$s, from entren%hed di%tatorshi$s to $eo$le in to#n s/uares and %ybers$a%e2- Cut he $osits this is inade/uate to des%ribe $resent reality- Po#er is 'oin' throu'h a more fundamental mutation 6 0it has more %om$etitors and %hallen'ers and 'reater %onstraints-2

>aim also /uestions #hat he %alls 0ele&ator thin1in'2 6 about 0#ho is 'oin' u$ and #ho is 'oin' do#n2 6 #hether a %ountry, %om$any, $oliti%al or business leader- Je re4e%ts this as the 0allure of the s$orts lea'ue table2- .f #e remain %onsumed by ran1in's #e #ill miss a fundamental reality about %ontem$orary life: ho# $o#er itself is 8de%ayin'3 at a time #hen the for%es of %han'e are %ausin' un$re%edented forms of fra'mentation- Po#er is s%attered amon' a 'ro#in' number of smaller $layers from di&erse, often unex$e%ted ba%1'rounds, he says-

The boo13s $i&otal $oint is that on%e $o#erful bi' $layers are under %hallen'e from ne#er, more numerous and smaller $layers, in $oliti%s, business, the international arena and areas of #ar and $ea%e- The anti5establishment thrust of these 8mi%ro$o#ers3 is res$onsible for oustin' authoritarian rulers, dismantlin' mono$olies and o$enin' un$re%edented o$$ortunities- Cut this is also $rodu%in' %haos and $aralysis- The boo1 deals #ith both $ositi&e and ne'ati&e as$e%ts of #hat is %hara%teriLed as a definin' trend-

9hy has $o#er erodedG 9hat is behind #hat the author $ro&o%ati&ely dubs the 8de%ay of $o#er3G The barriers to $o#er ha&e %rumbled at a &ery fast $a%e in the last three de%ades- The bi''est %hallen'e to $o#er in our time, he #rites, %omes from myriad %han'es in the lands%a$e: demo'ra$hi%s, im$ro&ed le&els of edu%ation, health and li&in' standards, $atterns of mi'ration, families, and attitudes, #hi%h are the 0referen%e $oint for our as$irations-2

>aim di&ides the $rofound transformations these for%es of %han'es ha&e #rou'ht into three

%ate'ories: 8More 7e&olution3, #hi%h is s#am$in' the barriers to $o#er, 8Mobility 7e&olution3 that is %ir%um&entin' barriers and the 8Mentality 7e&olution3 that is under%uttin' them- For the author, ea%h of these re&olutions $resents a s$e%ifi% %hallen'e to the traditional mode of $o#er- 9hat does this a%tually meanG The first refers to the fa%t that there is sim$ly more of e&erythin' in our a'e of abundan%e- More means more diffi%ult to re'iment- The se%ond means $eo$le are no# so mobile that this ma1es them harder to %ontrol- <%%elerated mobility is brea1in' do#n the barriers by #hi%h $o#er #as traditionally shielded from %hallen'es- <nd the third refers to the 8ex$e%tations re&olution3 in%reasin'ly res$onsible for the 'a$ bet#een #hat $eo$le #ant and the s$eed #ith #hi%h 'o&ernments %an deli&er-

<ll this is leadin' to redistribution and s%atterin' of $o#er from established bi' $layers to more %om$etitors- This in turn is im$osin' ne# limits on holdin' and #ieldin' $o#er- 0The %learly defined %entres2 of $ast $o#er no lon'er exist- .nstead a 0%loud of $layers2 has re$la%ed the %entre, ea%h #ith some $o#er to sha$e out%omes but none #ith enou'h to unilaterally determine them-

Je a$$lies this hy$othesis to national $oliti%s, 'lobal 'eo$oliti%s, business and other fields of life- <mon' the most in%isi&e %ha$ters is the one dealin' #ith #hat he %alls 8Penta'ons &ersus Pirates3- .n this he examines ho# the state has lost the mono$oly o&er %oer%i&e $o#er #ith the in%reasin' %a$a%ity of small, %ombatant 'rou$s to ad&an%e their 'oals by infli%tin' dama'e on lon'standin', mu%h lar'er defen%e establishments- These 'rou$s may not be able to #in but %an 8deny3 &i%tory to te%hnolo'i%ally su$erior $layers in an asymmetri% %onfli%t- Je sho#s that %on&entional militaries fa%e not 4ust a ne# set of ad&ersaries but also the transformation of #arfare itself, dri&en by the 8dar1er side3 of the three re&olutions he identifies- ,ofi <nnan, former se%retary 'eneral of the *> on%e des%ribed the 8dar13 for%es s$a#ned by 'lobalisation as the for%es of an 8un%i&il so%iety3-

<t the 'lobal le&el, the a%/uisition and use of $o#er has also under'one s#ee$in' transformation- .n an e%ho of .an Cremmer3s de$i%tion of a 8(5Iero 9orld3 in his boo1 8 &ery >ation for .tself3, >aim as1s if anyone is in %har'e- Je ans#ers that no nation, re'ardless of the military and e%onomi% assets it $ossesses, is immune to the 8loss of $o#er3- <nd he #rites #ith 'reat insi'ht that 0the 'ro#in' %a$a%ity of small states to #ard off the desi'ns of lar'e ones is $art of an o&erall shift that has em$o#ered a mu%h broader ran'e of a%tors in international affairs2- That is also #hy aid doesn3t translate any more into influen%e or %lout o&er a re%i$ient nation-

From this ri%h and %ross5se%tor analysis >aim determines that 0the $o#erful are more %onstrained today than in the $ast, their hold on $o#er less se%ure and their tenures shorter2This he de%lares is #el%ome ne#s be%ause $oliti%al $o#er is less %on%entrated, less

mono$olisti% in business, and offers $eo$le more %hoi%es- Cut there is a disturbin' do#nsidePoliti%al $aralysis is one ty$e of 8%ollateral dama'e3- +o is the 8o&erdose3 of %he%1s and balan%es that yields national 'ridlo%1- This is also res$onsible for the rise of extremist $oliti%s in both de&elo$ed and de&elo$in' nations- <r'uably the 'reatest %hallen'e of $o#er dis$ersal is that it is ma1in' %olle%ti&e a%tion harder at both national and international le&els- 0Jumanity must therefore find ne# #ays of 'o&ernin' itself2, he %on%ludes-

This is an easy to read, must5ha&e boo1 for those interested in the %om$lexities of $o#er and 'o&ernan%e in the 21st %entury- Many findin's of this study #ill ha&e resonan%e in Pa1istan #here a ne# 'o&ernment is stru''lin' to address multi$le %hallen'es and dis%o&erin' the diffi%ulty of sol&in' $roblems and exer%isin' $o#er, des$ite ha&in' a de%isi&e $arliamentary ma4ority-

Moises >aim, The nd of Po#er, From Coardrooms to Cattlefields and Ehur%hes to +tates, 9hy bein' in %har'e isn3t #hat it used to be =>e# @or1: Casi% Coo1s, 2013? The ur'ent and im$ortant

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, June 0!, 2013 From Print dition

1"! 13 :3 2

The ur'ent and im$ortant The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

Mian >a#aL +harif assumes $o#er fa%in' a sea of %hallen'es- Je realises ho# %ru%ial yet diffi%ult it #ill be to steer the shi$ of state throu'h these %ho$$y #aters and ta1e the sin1in' e%onomy to safer shores- Je has before him the lesson of May 11: the $unishment &oters infli%ted on the PPP for non5$erforman%e- Je may #ant /ui%1 $oli%y #ins- Cut his $ubli%

statements a%1no#led'e there aren3t any and it #ill ta1e time to address Pa1istan3s $roblems es$e%ially endin' the %haos of $o#er shorta'es that he has ri'htly made his to$ $riority-

The in%omin' $rime minister #ill nonetheless be ex$e%ted in his first address to the nation to set a %lear dire%tion and road ma$ of #here he #ants to ta1e the %ountry- This #ill also be a measure of #hether he #ill, early in his tenure, ta1e the tou'h de%isions #arranted by the dire e%onomi% situation- The a$$roa%hin' bud'et #ill be the earliest test of his %ommitment to reform-

>a#aL +harif starts #ith se&eral ad&anta'es his $rede%essor ne&er en4oyed: a %omfortable ma4ority, %redibility, $ubli% 'ood#ill and %ontrol of Pa1istan3s lar'est $ro&in%e- Cut he also fa%es a national lands%a$e &astly transformed sin%e he #as last $rime minister 13 years a'o- The en&ironment has %han'ed in #ays that %ould hel$ or hinder +harif in 'o&ernin'- These %han'es in%lude:

P <n a%ti&ist 4udi%iary intent on 'uardin' its inde$enden%e and ser&in' as a %he%1 on arbitrary exe%uti&e a%tions- >onetheless #ith a stron' $o$ular mandate, +harif %an ex$e%t a honeymoon $eriod #ith the 4udi%iary-

P < &ibrant, hy$era%ti&e broad%ast media #hi%h has, in re%ent years, a%ted &i'orously to hold in%umbents to a%%ount and a%t as 8o$$osition3 to those in authority-

P *nder a non5inter&entionist army %hief, a lon' $o#erful institution has sou'ht to extri%ate itself from $oliti%s to rebuild its re$utation #hile $ubli%ly %ommittin' to su$$ort the demo%rati% $ro%ess-

P < re'ionalised ele%tion out%ome that has left t#o of four $ro&in%es in o$$osition handsFortunately for +harif the rulin' $arties in these $ro&in%es ha&e a national, not $aro%hial outloo1-

This %om$lex en&ironment %an enable or inhibit Mian +ahib de$endin' on ho# #ell he mana'es the %entre5$ro&in%e dynami% and relations #ith the 4udi%iary and the army, both of #hi%h #ill see leadershi$ transitions in a fe# months- Jis stan%e on Calo%histan3s 'o&ernment formation mar1s an im$ressi&e first ste$ on the former %ount-

Cut his sternest $oliti%al test #ill be to stabilise and re&i&e the e%onomy- Je has already sho#n ur'en%y in see1in' a strate'y to deal #ith the %rushin' $o#er shorta'es that stand today as the bi''est im$ediment to 'ro#th and in&estment, and the %ause of un$re%edented and mountin' hardshi$ for $eo$le-

.n %onfrontin' these %hallen'es, Mian +ahib #ill ha&e to deal #ith both the ur'ent and im$ortantThis means e&ol&in' $oli%y res$onses to immediate issues #hile layin' the foundations for lon'er5term, lastin' solutions-

%onomy- The %ountry3s $resent e%onomi% troubles refle%t %hroni% unaddressed $roblems*nless underlyin' stru%tural issues are ta%1led, the %ountry #ill not be able to es%a$e from the tra$ of lo#5'ro#th, little in&estment, hi'h defi%its, more borro#in' and risin' inflation- < $ie%emeal, Cand5<id a$$roa%h is not sustainable-

The most $roximate ris1 %omes from the %ountry3s $re%arious balan%e of $ayments $osition, #ith forei'n ex%han'e reser&es de$letin' and re$ayments loomin' on external debt- Cy end June, reser&es held by the +tate Can1 %ould di$ to around FA billion- Forty $er%ent of these are #hat are %alled for#ard)s#a$s- .f the %entral ban1 is unable to roll these %ontra%ts o&er, reser&es %ould $lun'e to a dan'erous le&el- This %ould result in a re$lay of the 200D balan%e of $ayments %risis-

To a&ert this, ur'ent a%tion is re/uired- The debate a$$arently ra'in' in PML5> %ir%les about #hen and if to a$$roa%h the .MF for emer'en%y finan%in' should be informed by the fa%t that if Pa1istan %annot meet its external finan%in' re/uirements in %omin' months it is far $referable to 'o to the Fund before a %risis emer'es than #hen one be%omes imminent- fforts at findin' 8alternate finan%in'3, e&en if su%%essful, #ill only buy time- Cut delay is not a strate'y- >or #ill this stren'then the 'o&ernment3s ne'otiatin' hand, as some ar'ue-

<ny future .MF $ro'ramme should ho#e&er be a $art of, not a substitute for, a #ider home5 'ro#n strate'y- +tabilisation measures are ne%essary to %reate an en&ironment to re&i&e e%onomi% a%ti&ity- More im$ortant are measures to s$ur 'ro#th and fix stru%tural $roblems to end the &i%ious %ir%le of hi'h bud'et defi%its and %hroni% finan%ial %rises that ha&e led to re$eated .MF bailouts-

The in%omin' 'o&ernment should frame a strate'y that addresses the sour%e of all fis%al $roblems 6 lo# tax5to5(DP ratio 6 by raisin' re&enue- m$o#ered by a de%isi&e ma4ority, the

ne# 'o&ernment has an extraordinary o$$ortunity to laun%h stru%tural reforms to $ut Pa1istan on a hi'her 'ro#th tra4e%tory- This should not be s/uandered under $ressure from the self5 interested #ho ha&e been #arnin' +harif a'ainst si'nifi%ant tax reforms- The ne#s$a$er ad&ertisement $ublished last #ee1 by the Pa1istan Cusiness Eoun%il is a sad refle%tion of this-

7eforms that dismantle the re'ime of %on%essions and $ri&ile'es #ould instead #in +harif 'reater $ubli% su$$ort 6 and raise substantial resour%es- Eentral to this is eliminatin' the +7B re'ime, #hi%h %osts the e%onomy billions in lost re&enue and hinders a le&el $layin' field for business- This #ill send the stron'est si'nal that the ne# 'o&ernment #ill not use $ubli% resour%es to $rote%t s$e%ial 'rou$s but a%t firmly in the broader $ubli% interest-

ner'y se%tor reforms are +harif3s most ur'ent $riority- Cut this re/uires tou'h de%isions in&ol&in' tariff %han'es and $hasin' out untar'eted subsidies to a%hie&e full re%o&ery #ithin a s$e%ified timeframe- < %om$rehensi&e strate'y also entails dealin' #ith intera'en%y debt, restru%turin' and e&entually $ri&atisin' $o#er 'eneration and distribution %om$anies, %on&ertin' them to lo#er %ost fuels, and reformin' the natural 'as mar1et-

du%ation merits $riority, as it is both ur'ent and im$ortant- %onomi% $ro'ress is im$ossible #ithout in&estment in human %a$ital- Pa1istan3s demo'ra$hi% transition =the #or1in' a'e $o$ulation is ex$e%ted to double in 20 years? %an turn into a disaster if edu%ational o$$ortunities are not $ro&ided to youn' $eo$le enterin' the 4ob mar1et in un$aralleled numbers- The s%ale and /uality of edu%ation has to substantially ex$and, a serious tar'et has to be set to a%%om$lish full $rimary enrolment and hi'her enrolment in se%ondary and uni&ersity edu%ation.n&estment is also essential in te%hni%al trainin' and s1ills de&elo$ment-

< national se%urity strate'y must be e&ol&ed to inte'rate #hat are se$arate e%onomi%, internal la# and order, defen%e and forei'n $oli%ies into a %oherent and dis%i$lined $ursuit of %learly arti%ulated national 'oals- For the first time the %ountry should be run #ith su%h strate'y and the a$$ro$riate $oli%y mix to attain the strate'i% ob4e%ti&e of a se%ure and e%onomi%ally resilient Pa1istan- This #ill re/uire identifyin' $riorities and de&isin' institutional arran'ements to %oordinate this strate'y-

%onomi% re&i&al is not $ossible #ithout se%urin' the %ountry a'ainst internal threats from militan%y- The %urrent $o$ular narrati&e of 8tal1 not fi'ht3 is sedu%ti&ely sim$le but any dialo'ue should $ro%eed a%%ordin' to a? %learly defined $arameters, the la# and the %onstitutionM b? ex$erien%e and fate of $ast $ea%e dealsM %? %areful assessment of #hether militant demands are ne'otiable and d? renun%iation of &iolen%e by militants before tal1s %ommen%e-

The res$onse to extremist &iolen%e must be ba%1ed by $oliti%al %onsensus and $ubli% su$$ort and a&oid the fire5fi'htin' %hara%ter of $ast efforts- +$a%e does not $ermit fuller ex$osition of su%h a strate'y es$e%ially of the entire s$e%trum of threats and external %hallen'es that the %ountry fa%es- >or is an a$$raisal $ossible here of the 1ind of forei'n $oli%y needed for this $hase of e%onomi% %onsolidation and se%urin' internal $ea%e and stability- This #ill be addressed in a later %olumn-

Fe#, if any, of the $riority a%tions that Mian +ahib #ill ha&e to %hoose from to address Pa1istan3s e%onomi%, ener'y and se%urity %hallen'es are $ain5free- Cut he must also 1no# he has a uni/ue o$$ortunity to im$lement reforms and ta1e bold %orre%ti&e a%tions to extri%ate the %ountry from its 8%risis state3 and ma1e an endurin' %ontribution to Pa1istan3s future- This moment is for him to seiLe>u%lear bluster or dialo'ueG

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, May 2D, 2013 From Print dition

!:A :0 20" !D

>u%lear bluster or dialo'ueG The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

9hat should be made of a distin'uished former .ndian forei'n se%retary3s assertions about his %ountry3s nu%lear $osture and $oli%yG .n a s$ee%h last month in Delhi, +hyam +aran made se&eral $ronoun%ements about the e&olution of .ndia3s nu%lear $oli%y and the %urrent status of its nu%lear deterrent-

Je %ast these remar1s as his $ersonal &ie#s- Cut +aran is %urrent %hairman Qof .ndia3s >ational +e%urity <d&isory Coard- Many in .ndia and outside sa# his statements as arti%ulatin' offi%ial $oli%y on a sensiti&e issue, #hile maintainin' deniability- The Times of .ndia, for exam$le, said +aran #as 0$la%in' on re%ord .ndia3s offi%ial nu%lear $osture #ith the full %on%urren%e of the hi'hest le&els of nu%lear $oli%yma1ers in Delhi2- <nd .slamabad as1ed Delhi for an offi%ial %larifi%ation-

+aran3s assertions merit %areful %onsideration- .t is not sur$risin' that he is ir1ed by 0adulatory remar1s2 in 09estern literature2 about the safe and se%ure %ustody of Pa1istan3s nu%lear assets by the 8+trate'i% Plannin' (rou$3 =$resumably he means the +trate'i% Plans Di&ision?- .nsistin' this is unmerited as the military has ste#ardshi$ of these assets, +aran o&erloo1s the fa%t that it is the >ational Eommand <uthority headed by the $rime minister that is Pa1istan3s a$ex nu%lear authority- +aran also disa$$ro&es of the international %ommunity3s 'ro#in' a%1no#led'ement of the se%urity5dri&en nature of Pa1istan3s nu%lear $ro'ramme- Je strains to ex$lain that .ndia3s nu%lear %a$ability is se%urity not $resti'e5dri&en 6 an ex$lanation that has %ome four de%ades too late-

Jo#e&er, the most %onse/uential $art of his s$ee%h for Pa1istan3s se%urity $oli%yma1ers is #here he $resents a s%enario that %ulminates #ith .ndia en'a'in' in 0massi&e nu%lear retaliation2 a'ainst Pa1istan- Je $osits an es%alatory ladder that $resumably starts #ith a sub5 %on&entional e&ent or terrorist atta%1, after #hi%h Pa1istan tries to dissuade .ndia from %arryin' out $uniti&e %on&entional retaliation, by de$loyin' its ta%ti%al nu%lear #ea$ons- .ndia res$onds by usin' strate'i% #ea$ons-

+aran #arns that any nu%lear atta%1 6 #hether by strate'i% or ta%ti%al #ea$ons 6 #ould be met by 0massi&e retaliation2 from .ndia- This #ill be 0desi'ned to infli%t una%%e$table dama'e on its ad&ersary2- 0<ny nu%lear ex%han'e on%e initiated, #ould s#iftly and inexorably es%alate to the strate'i% le&el2- 0Pa1istan2, he de%lares, should 0be $rudent not to assume other#ise as it sometimes a$$ears to do, most re%ently by de&elo$in' and $erha$s de$loyin' theatre nu%lear #ea$ons2-

+e&eral of +aran3s assum$tions are o$en to /uestion- First there is a $resum$tion that Pa1istan3s de%ision to de&elo$ battlefield nu%lear #ea$ons re$resents a nu%lear #ar5fi'htin' o$tion- Bffi%ial s$o1esmen ha&e re$eatedly said that Pa1istan re'ards the surfa%e5to5surfa%e solid fuel5based Jatf .R =>asr?, or any additional battlefield #ea$on that may subse/uently be de&elo$ed, as $rimarily #ea$ons of deterren%e- Their $ur$ose is to reinfor%e deterren%e and restore nu%lear stability that has been disturbed by i? 'ro#in' %on&entional asymmetry in the re'ion as .ndia3s military build5u$ %ontinuesM ii? $ro&o%ati&e .ndian military do%trines that aim to brin' %on&entional military offensi&es to a ta%ti%al le&el and iii? .ndia3s de&elo$ment of ballisti%

missile defen%e =CMD? systems, #hose $ur$ose is to neutralise Pa1istan3s strate'i% %a$abilities-

<s for +aran3s %laim that 0si'nifi%ant shifts2 in Pa1istan3s nu%lear $osture ha&e altered the re'ional nu%lear e/uation, the fa%t is that .slamabad remains %ommitted to its nu%lear $oli%y of a%hie&in' %redible nu%lear deterren%e at the lo#est $ra%ti%al le&el- The %entral tenet of its nu%lear $oli%y is for its %a$ability to be maintained for the $ur$ose of deterren%e a'ainst a''ression and #ar5$re&ention in all its manifestations, thereby $reser&in' $ea%e- Pa1istan also belie&es that %redible deterren%e re/uires a$$ro$riate le&els of %on&entional and nu%lear %a$abilities to be de&elo$ed and maintained-

Most im$ortantly +aran3s es%alatory s%enario lays bare an underlyin' frustration that .ndia3s Eold +tart Do%trine, no# 1no#n as 0$roa%ti&e o$erations2, has been %hallen'ed if not blunted by Pa1istan3s T>9 res$onse- That is #hy this emer'es as the main thrust of his remar1s and leads him to de$i%t T>9s as 0nu%lear bla%1mail2 by Pa1istan- .n doin' so he also reaffirms the .ndian intent to $reser&e the limited #ar o$tion and $re&ent Eold +tart from bein' rendered irrele&ant-

That +aran belie&es that .ndia %an or should %onsider a $uniti&e #ar a'ainst its nu%lear nei'hbour in retaliation for an a%t of terror %arried out by a non5state a%tor is dis%on%ertin' enou'h- Cut he then #arns that if Pa1istan tried to deter an .ndian %on&entional atta%1 by its T>9s, .ndia #ould retaliate #ith nu%lear #ea$ons- This re$resents dan'erous thin1in'- Cut the strate'i% hole in +aran3s es%alatory s%enario is this- .n holdin' out the threat of 0massi&e retaliation2 he fails to fa%tor in Pa1istan3s full s$e%trum %a$abilities to %ounter 0massi&e retaliation2 not to s$ea1 of its $otent se%ond stri1e %a$ability- .t is sur$risin' #hy this ty$i%al but dan'erous Mutually <ssured Destru%tion s%enario has not been %arefully thou'ht throu'h to its lo'i%al %on%lusion-

Bne inter$retation of #hy +aran has fo%used attention on T>9s and de%lared a 0massi&e retaliation2 .ndian res$onse is that this see1s to $lay on 9estern fears about the ris1s of indu%tin' battlefield nu%lear #ea$ons and the nu%lear dan'er this %ould ex$ose the re'ion toThis may be desi'ned to 'al&anise international $ressure on Pa1istan to abandon the T>9 o$tion- .n the unli1ely e&ent that this #ere to ha$$en it #ould 8restore3 Eold +tart and re5 establish .ndia3s %on&entional military ed'e o&er Pa1istan-

The rationale for Pa1istan3s de%ision to $ursue a T>9 %a$ability is #ell 1no#n- .t bears re$etition to understand #hy there a$$ears to be mountin' .ndian frustration #ith this de&elo$ment as indi%ated by +aran3s s$ee%h- Pa1istan $er%ei&ed a number of ra$id de&elo$ments in the $ast de%ade to ad&ersely affe%t the re'ion3s strate'i% e/uilibrium

established after the 1;;D nu%lear tests %ondu%ted by both %ountries- They in%luded the .ndo5 *+ %i&ilian nu%lear deal and the >+( exem$tion under #hi%h .ndia #as enabled to %on%lude fuel su$$ly a'reements #ith many %ountries- These si'nifi%antly enhan%ed .ndia3s ability to ex$and its strate'i% arsenal and in turn altered Pa1istan3s se%urity %al%ulations-

Mean#hile, the ne# .ndian military do%trine and efforts to de&elo$ CMD, #hi%h %ame on the ba%1 of these de&elo$ments, be%ame 'ame5%han'ers- The effort to find s$a%e for limited %on&entional en'a'ement belo# the nu%lear threshold im$elled Pa1istan to see1 a res$onse at the ta%ti%al le&el in the nu%lear domain- .n tryin' to %all Pa1istan3s 8nu%lear bluff3 by o$erationalisin' $roa%ti&e #ar5fi'htin' strate'ies, these .ndian mo&es ur'ed Pa1istan to de&elo$ T>9s to deter Eold +tart and re5establish nu%lear stability- Cy addin' another layer to the %ountry3s deterren%e %a$ability Jatf .R aimed to %lose the 'a$ at the o$erational and ta%ti%al le&el-

<'ainst this ba%1dro$ #hat +aran no# seems to be si'nallin' is that if Pa1istan thin1s it %an deter limited %on&entional #ar by ta%ti%al nu%lear #ea$ons then .ndia too has o$tions and %an use strate'i% #ea$ons in 0massi&e retaliation2- This ma1es little strate'i% sense but it is dan'erous tal1 in a situation #here there is a deli%ate balan%e in a strate'i% relationshi$ that remains undefined bet#een the nu%lear nei'hbours-

>u%lear $o#ers do not define their relations by threats or bluster- The only ans#er to ne# and old dilemmas %reated by the re'ion3s nu%learisation is for both nations to en'a'e seriously and %onstru%ti&ely to build a better understandin' of ea%h other3s nu%lear $oli%y, do%trines and $ostures- This means ad&an%in' the nu%lear dialo'ue #ith the aim of $uttin' in $la%e %redible and meanin'ful %onfiden%e buildin' measures in both the strate'i% and %on&entional military s$heres-

The 'la%ial $ro'ress on ECMs in ex$ert5le&el tal1s o&er the $ast de%ade unders%ores the need to ste$ u$ that effort- .ndian offi%ials ha&e 'enerally been dismissi&e about Pa1istan3s $ro$osal for a +trate'i% 7estraint 7e'ime- This has three interlo%1in' elements desi'ned to a%hie&e strate'i% stability 6 measures for nu%lear restraint, %on&entional military balan%e and resolution of dis$utes- &en if Delhi finds it diffi%ult to a%%e$t the lin1a'e bet#een these %om$onents of strate'i% stability, the se$arate $ro$osals tabled in these areas are #orthy of %onsideration-

The t#o %ountries ha&e a mutual interest in stabilisin' their nu%lear relationshi$- The #ay for#ard is not by ill5thou'ht nu%lear si'nallin' but in en'a'in' substanti&ely to narro# the $er%e$tion 'a$s and address the issues that lie at the root of both %ountries3 se%urity

$redi%aments and the re'ion3s nu%learisation-+mart 'o&ernan%e

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, May 21, 2013 From Print dition

30! 102 10! 3

+mart 'o&ernan%e The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

9e li&e in a #orld in $rofound transition #here mountin' 'o&ernan%e %hallen'es ha&e be%ome more %om$lex at both the national and 'lobal le&els- (reater interde$enden%e and redistribution of 'lobal $o#er amon' and a#ay from states has %reated a 'ro#in' 'a$ bet#een these de&elo$ments and $re&ailin' 'o&ernan%e models-

(o&ernan%e %hallen'es are also more im$osin' in an era of 'lobalisation and the information re&olution- >e# te%hnolo'ies ha&e %reated un$re%edented flo#s of instant information that ha&e ma'nified this %hallen'e- (o&ernments are seen to be deli&erin' too slo#ly in a #orld that is mo&in' &ery fast- Coth 'lobal and national institutions are stru''lin' to %o$e #ith the %han'es s#ee$in' the #orld-

<ll this has i'nited an international debate on 'o&ernan%e in the 21st %entury and about the institutional reforms and $oli%y %han'es needed for %ountries to ada$t to these ne# realities- <n ex%itin' ne# boo1 no# 4oins this debate- The authors of 8.ntelli'ent (o&ernan%e for the 21st Eentury3, >i%olas Cer''ruen and >athan (ardels offer shar$ insi'hts into #hy $resent $oliti%al systems are not deli&erin' effe%ti&e 'o&ernan%e and #hy this %riti%al issue needs to be rethou'ht-

The authors $ut for#ard an ambitious ideaM $ro&o%ati&e for those #ho belie&e only #estern liberal demo%rati% models %an $rodu%e 'ood 'o&ernan%e and solutions to %ontem$orary $roblems- They $ro$ose instead that both east and #est should learn and ada$t from one another, %ombinin' 01no#led'eable demo%ra%y2 #ith 0a%%ountable merito%ra%y2-

The boo1 dis%ards the #est &s east $aradi'm and the ethno%entri% $resum$tion that #estern $oliti%al ideas and systems are bound to o&ershado# others, $o$ularised by Fran%is Fu1uyama in his 8 nd of history3 thesis- For the authors the /uestion is not if #estern style demo%ra%y #ill trium$h o&er rule by a merito%rati% mandarinate rooted in Ehina3s an%ient 0institutional %i&ilisation2 or the other #ay around- Cut #hether a 0middle #ay2 bet#een them %an be e&ol&edCy this they mean findin' a balan%e bet#een merito%ra%y and demo%ra%y, authority and freedom, and %ommunity and the indi&idual to %reate the most intelli'ent form of 'o&ernan%e-

.n a &ery readable boo1, the authors examine the stren'ths and defi%ien%ies of #est and east and su''est dra#in' on the best $ra%ti%es of both to re%alibrate $oliti%al systems and e&ol&e hybrid institutional arran'ements that %ombine si'nature elements from $o$ular demo%ra%y and the Eonfu%ian tradition of a learned merito%ra%y-

The boo1 starts #ith the $ro$osition that both #estern and eastern $oliti%al systems need %orre%tion, fa%ed as they are #ith %ommon %hallen'es that they are in%reasin'ly unable to %o$e #ith- The boo1 fo%uses on <meri%a =and to some extent uro$e? #hen dis%ussin' the #est, and Ehina #hen e&aluatin' the east- Cut other models are a%1no#led'ed su%h as the 0.slami% oriented demo%ra%y #ithin Tur1ey3s se%ular frame#or12- The authors also em$hasise that the &aried systems a%ross the 'lobe sho# that 0the #orld is returnin' to the 8normal $luralism3 that has %hara%terised mu%h of human history2-

They ar'ue %om$ellin'ly that dysfun%tion, de%ay, $olarisation and ideolo'i%al ri'idity affli%t 'o&ernan%e systems in mu%h of the #est- *nless it reforms, ele%toral demo%ra%y embedded in a %onsumer %ulture of instant 'ratifi%ation is headed for 0terminal de%line2- Eitin' Fu1uyama #ho #rote that liberal demo%ra%y has be%ome a 0dysfun%tional &eto%ra%y2, the authors ar'ue that 8%onsumer demo%ra%y3, #here %onsumer %hoi%e is self5interested and short5term, do#n'rades any notion of the lon'5term and %ommon 'ood- Cy indul'in' short5term $o$ulist sentiments and ser&in' s$e%ial interests this system $rodu%es 'ridlo%1 and is unable to de%isi&ely ad&an%e the 'eneral interest-

Politi%s in this settin' has be%ome about 0the next ele%tion instead of the next 'eneration-2 le%toral demo%ra%y, %laim the authors, is in %risis be%ause it $rioritises short5term interests,

unmiti'ated by robust deliberati&e institutions, #hi%h ha&e be%ome #ea1er and in%a$able of $romotin' the 'eneral 'ood- <s it has e&ol&ed in the *+, demo%ra%y a$$ears as unable to self5 %orre%t as free mar1ets 6 #hi%h the 200D50; finan%ial %risis testified-

Bn the other hand Ehina ta1es a lon'5term 'o&ernan%e $ers$e%ti&e, %an ma1e tou'h de%isions and effe%ti&ely im$lement them- .n a%%ordan%e #ith the Eonfu%ian tradition, Ehina has relied on the edu%ation of elites and ethi%s to ensure institutional res$onsi&eness and fairness- Ehina3s o$erati&e system based on the merito%rati% tradition of learned and ex$erien%ed elites and refle%ted in the modern mandarinate of the Eommunist Party enables it to %hart out a lon' term $ath and is res$onsible for its remar1able rise-

Cut the Ehinese system is also under stress as it e&ol&es into a more %om$lex ad&an%ed e%onomy- .t too needs %orre%tion be%ause it 0la%1s a%%ountability, is rife #ith %orru$tion2 and fa%es mountin' demands from its $eo$le for demo%rati% %he%1s on arbitrary authority and %ronyism- .n Ehina itself a li&ely debate is under#ay about the need for Eonfu%ian5dri&en merito%rati% 'o&ernment to be miti'ated by more o$enness and a%%ountability- &en to$ $arty offi%ials a%%e$t the need for %han'e- Ehina, the authors %on%lude, #ill ado$t its o#n &ersion of demo%ratisation- <nd they endorse the notion that modernisation does not ha&e to be #esternisation-

From this dis%ussion the authors %on%lude that the best attributes of both eastern and #estern systems %an hel$ to de&elo$ a tem$late of intelli'ent 'o&ernan%e- This means stri1in' a better balan%e bet#een ri'hts and res$onsibilities, as #ell as a %he%1 on $o$ulist and $artisan im$ulses by institutin' the $ers$e%ti&e of the lon'5term and %ommon 'ood in a stron' deliberati&e body- For the authors intelli'ent 'o&ernan%e re/uires 0de&ol&in'2 $o#er, 0in&ol&in'2 %itiLens in areas of their %om$eten%e and 0de%ision5di&ision2 that fosters 0le'itima%y and %onsent for dele'ated authority at hi'her le&els of %om$lexity2-

Ehina, this ar'ument holds, #ould 0need more $arti%i$atory in&ol&ement and a more a%%ountable merito%rati% mandarinate to a%hie&e balan%e2, #hile 0The *nited +tates #ould need a more de$oliti%ised demo%ra%y in #hi%h 'o&ernan%e for the lon'5term and %ommon 'ood is insulated from the $o$ulist short5term s$e%ial interest $oliti%al %ulture of one5$erson5one5&ote ele%tions2- +o 0Ehina #ould need to li'hten u$ #hile the *+ #ould need to ti'hten u$2 and both #ill ha&e to a%%e$t the im$erati&e of 0+ur&i&al of the 9isest2-

The authors insist they do not ad&o%ate a one5siLe fit all mode of 'o&ernan%e but see1 to sho# ho# the tradeoffs bet#een demo%rati% a%%ountability and 1no#led'eable, merito%rati%

'o&ernment mi'ht be stru%tured- &ery system #ill ha&e to find its o#n 8balan%e3 %onsistent #ith its %ultural en&ironment and re%alibrate its $oliti%al system a%%ordin'ly- The authors are as %on%erned #ith the international as the national im$li%ations of this balan%e- +o they belie&e %orre%tin' the %ontrastin' e%onomi% dynami% bet#een t#o %lashin' systems =*+ is borro#er and %onsumer #hile Ehina is in&estor and ex$orter but still a de&elo$in' nation? a%%om$anied by $oliti%al re%alibration #ill 'enerate 'lobal e/uilibrium and $romote international $ea%e and $ros$erity-

Does Pa1istan ha&e anythin' to learn from this dis%ussionG <t a time #hen a ne# 'o&ernment is $oised to assume offi%e and is %onfronted #ith un$re%edented %hallen'es, the ans#er is yesThere are ob&ious 'o&ernan%e $rin%i$les su%h as the need to a%hie&e both le'itima%y and %om$eten%e in $oli%y a%tions ado$ted to address %hallen'es- The $rima%y of merit o&er %ronyism is $i&otal- There is also the $rin%i$le of ta1in' sound, informed and lon'5term de%isions for the %ommon 'ood 6 the /uintessen%e of smart 'o&ernan%e-

There is another fundamental lesson to be learnt: rea%hin' out and assemblin' ex$erts and s$e%ialists #ho %an hel$ to sol&e Pa1istan3s myriad $roblems- < 'o&ernment #ith su%h a de%isi&e ma4ority should ha&e the %onfiden%e to enlist and not fear ex$erts #ho %an assist it 'o&ern effe%ti&ely- < national effort is needed to extri%ate the %ountry from the $resent mess- .n this effort the $oliti%al leadershi$ has to lead, but it %an benefit from dra#in' on the %ountry3s ri%h talent and s1illed $rofessionals to find %om$etent res$onses to diffi%ult $roblems-

Ceyond lessons from the boo1, #hat #ill be %ru%ial in the days ahead is the re%o'nition that #ithout leadershi$ nothin' #ill be doable and #ithout stren'thenin' institutions nothin' is durable-

8.ntelli'en%e (o&ernan%e for the 21st Eentury: a Middle 9ay bet#een 9est and ast3, >i%holas Cer''ruen and >athan (ardels, Polity Press, *+<, 2013-

9anted: a national se%urity strate'y

Dr Maleeha Lodhi Tuesday, May 0", 2013

From Print dition

2A0 AA :1 :

9anted: a national se%urity strate'y The #riter is s$e%ial ad&iser to the Jan' (rou$)(eo and a former en&oy to the *+ and the *,-

The &iolent run5u$ to the May 11 ele%tion is another ur'ent reminder of the need to e&ol&e a %om$rehensi&e national se%urity strate'y- The %ountry doesn3t ha&e one at $resent- 9e ha&e defen%e, forei'n and e%onomi% $oli%ies and a $at%h#or1 of internal la# and order res$onses, but this doesn3t add u$ to a national se%urity strate'y-

< national se%urity strate'y has to inte'rate these %om$onents of $oli%y in dis%i$lined $ursuit of %learly arti%ulated 'oals and $riorities- .t has to be more than a sum of these $arts and $ro&ide an o&erar%hin', strate'i% fo%us to them- There is an e&ol&in' dynami% bet#een 'oals, %han'es in the internal and external en&ironments and the strate'y %rafted to deal #ith them- < &iable strate'y has to %ontinuously ali'n ends #ith means, 'oals #ith resour%es, ob4e%ti&es #ith tools.t must also ali'ned itself #ith $eo$le3s as$irations and ha&e $ubli% su$$ort-

<mon' the next 'o&ernment3s to$ $riorities should be to e&ol&e su%h a strate'y and de&ise the a$$ro$riate mix of $oli%ies to 'i&e strate'i% dire%tion to the effort to a%hie&e a se%ure and stron' Pa1istan- The %ountry has to be se%ure a'ainst the entire s$e%trum of threats 6 internal and external, hard and soft, old and ne#- <ttainin' %om$rehensi&e se%urity means a%hie&in' national %ohesion, establishin' $oliti%al and e%onomi% stability, eliminatin' threats of terrorist &iolen%e, %ombatin' extremism and dealin' effe%ti&ely #ith external %hallen'es, #hile at the same time enablin' the %ountry to %a$italise on o$$ortunities offered by a 'lobalisin' #orld and the $romise of an <sian %entury- Ea$abilities need resour%es- Cut their allo%ation must stri1e a balan%e bet#een defen%e and de&elo$ment needs- Bther#ise there #ill be a se%urity defi%it-

Today our %ountry %onfronts a %om$lex se%urity lands%a$e and un$re%edented %hallen'es to $ea%e and stability- These emanate from a di&erse array of sour%es and %om$rise traditional and non5traditional or asymmetri%al threats- The 'reatest threat is internal but Pa1istan also fa%es endurin' external %hallen'es from unresol&ed re'ional dis$utes, unfinished #ars in our nei'hbourhood and ne#er dan'ers $osed by shifts in 'lobal 'eo$oliti%s- +ome %hallen'es are

the unintended %onse/uen%e of Pa1istan3s $ast $oli%ies- Bthers ha&e resulted from a%tions by other states as #ell as non5state a%tors-

&eryone a%%e$ts that national se%urity has to 'o beyond a military5%entri% $aradi'm of defendin' $hysi%al borders to embra%e a broader, more %om$rehensi&e a$$roa%h- .t is also #idely a%1no#led'ed that %om$rehensi&e se%urity re/uires that all elements of national $o#er 6 military, $oliti%al, e%onomi%, di$lomati%, %ultural and informational 6 are de$loyed in a 8#hole of 'o&ernment3 a$$roa%h so that multidimensional %hallen'es are met by a holisti% strate'y-

Cut here lies the $roblem- This a%1no#led'ement remains theory, not $ra%ti%e- .t fi'ures in the rhetori% of national leaders and in $o#er $oint $resentations at military a%ademies- Cut it does not translate into o$erational strate'y- .t is not refle%ted in the settin' of national $riorities or in institutional arran'ements to $ursue these- There is no national forum #here su%h a strate'y %an be e&ol&ed and then %oordinated #ith a %lear %om$rehension of lin1a'es amon' different areas of ris1 in the domesti% and international arenas-

De%isions on se%urity issues remain ad ho% and dis%onne%ted, formulated and im$lemented in se$arate 8silos3- Poli%y is often rea%ti&e rather than %oherent and %onsistent- Coth %i&ilians and the military eye mu%h needed institutional im$ro&isation #ith sus$i%ion, belie&in' that ne# stru%tures #ill ta1e $o#er a#ay from them-

Jo# #ill the next 'o&ernment address this &ital areaG The ele%tion manifestos of the ma4or $oliti%al $arties a&oid s$e%ifi%s and state 'oals as if they are strate'y- Those loo1in' for any indi%ation of ho# these $arties #ill mana'e Pa1istan3s se%urity $roblems #ill not be able to dis%ern that from their manifestos-

<ll em$hasise that internal and external se%urity is intert#ined but then deal in a s%attered #ay #ith inter%onne%ted issues- .n some %ases $artisanshi$ %olours the assessment, for exam$le, of the reasons behind the rise of militan%y- <ll the manifestos stress the need to defeat terrorism but fall short of identifyin' the means to a%%om$lish the 'oal-

The PPP3s manifesto $romises a national se%urity $lan #ithout ho#e&er s$e%ifyin' #hat this mi'ht loo1 li1e- .t also does not ex$lain #hy its 'o&ernment failed to $ro&ide one in the $ast fi&e years- The PML5> manifesto $led'es a 0%om$rehensi&e re&ie#2 of national se%urity and forei'n $oli%y but offers no %lue of #hat this #ill in&ol&e- The PT. manifesto identifies #hat it re'ards as Pa1istan3s 0%ore national interests2 and %alls for a multidimensional se%urity frame#or1 but then

doesn3t s$ell it out-

9hate&er the manifestos may or may not say, the in%omin' 'o&ernment #ill ha&e little %hoi%e but to mo&e /ui%1ly to address the #orsenin' se%urity en&ironment- .t #ill ha&e to de%ide #hether it #ants to run the %ountry #ithout a national se%urity strate'y or ma1e a determined effort to formulate and im$lement one-

+ome broad $rin%i$les mi'ht hel$ to inform this im$ortant underta1in'- The most fundamental $rin%i$le is that our national se%urity and forei'n $oli%y should start at home- xternal %hallen'es %an only be met if #e se%ure oursel&es internally- *nless the sour%es of internal #ea1ness are addressed 6 a sta'nant e%onomy, %rumblin' ener'y infrastru%ture and threats from &iolent 'rou$s that mo%1 and defy state authority 6 Pa1istan %annot em$o#er itself to deal #ith o&erseas %hallen'es or benefit from the extraordinary %han'es s#ee$in' the #orld-

< national se%urity &ision has to be $redi%ated on the firm belief that the %ountry3s e%onomi% re&i&al and $ro'ress is the bedro%1 of se%urity- 7ebuildin' the e%onomy should ha&e o&erridin' $riority- Cut e%onomi% se%urity also rests on $hysi%al se%urity- <nd this re/uires the elimination of threats to la# and order- <ll other im$ediments in the $ath of e%onomi% re&i&al must also be remo&ed- That means mobilisin' domesti% resour%es, addressin' $o#er shorta'es and dealin' #ith the edu%ation emer'en%y, #hi%h threatens to turn our demo'ra$hi% transition into a disaster-

<ll this is im$ossible to a%hie&e in the $resent frau'ht se%urity en&ironment- The mar1ed deterioration in la# and order in the $re5ele%tion $eriod underlines the s%ale of the %hallen'e and the reality that the defeat of militan%y is no#here in si'ht- The sur'e in se%tarian &iolen%e and atta%1s on minorities has added dan'erous ne# dimensions to a %om$li%ated se%urity $i%ture- Meetin' this %hallen'e re/uires summonin' the national #ill and buildin' the %a$a%ity to deal effe%ti&ely #ith those resistin' the state3s #rit 6 from ,ara%hi and ,hyber to Nuetta 6 as #ell as disbandin' militant #in's of $oliti%al $arties-

The %ountry3s anti5militan%y %am$ai'n has made some 'ains 6 in +#at as #ell as by dri&in' the Tehree15e5Taliban out of +outh 9aLiristan- Cut the o&erall effort has ta1en the form more of firefi'htin' than a %oherent strate'y- The $oliti%al and administrati&e effort too has been #ea1 in the $ost5military o$eration $hase- These #ea1nesses ha&e to be %orre%ted to establish a sustainable en&ironment that $re&ents the return of militants to these areas- .t is also im$erati&e to end $ersistin' %onfusion at the $oliti%al le&el about ho# to res$ond to extremist &iolen%efforts for dialo'ue #ith militants must be %onditioned on their a%%e$tan%e of the la# and

%onstitution-

9ith >ato3s 201! deadline loomin' in <f'hanistan, Pa1istan must reinfor%e its lines of defen%e to $rote%t itself from the fallout of any se%urity &a%uum that mi'ht a%%om$any the ste$$ed u$ #ithdra#al of forei'n for%es- .t must also e&ol&e a military and $oliti%al $lan that %omes into $lay bet#een no# and 201! to a%%om$lish the strate'i% ob4e%ti&e of brea1in' the nexus bet#een the Pa1istani and <f'han Taliban-

+$a%e does not $ermit a re&ie# of the external dimensions of national se%urity es$e%ially those relatin' to .ndia, as indeed broader forei'n $oli%y issues- . ho$e to dis%uss this in a later %olumn9hat #ill be $i&otal in the days ahead are the %hoi%es #e ma1e for oursel&es- .f destiny is %hoi%e, not %han%e, then the fa%tors that #ill sha$e the %ountry3s destiny lie #ithin- That must be the fundamental $remise of our national se%urity strate'y-

Sunday, July 14, 2013 01:45 AM (GMT +5)

H o m e Beginn er's Guide R u le s Syll abu s Pa st Pa pe rs CSP Mem bers

(s r !am CSS Forums > G n ral > ! "s # Ar$%&l s > T' ! "s

Articles by Dr.Maleeha odhi

User Name Log in
)ass"o rd

Home

Register

A!ards

Community

"oday's Posts

Search

) a *

S'ar T'r ad: Google%

#aceboo$

"!itter

1 o + 3

&

>

'ie! #irst (nread

in$Bac$

"hread "ools

#1 Tuesday, January 15, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

Articles by Dr.Maleeha odhi

15$' 5anuary 20136

ine o) *ulnerability
T' la$ s$ +lar 7u8 o+ $ ns%ons alon* $' /%n o+ Con$rol (/oC) %n 9as'm%r %s a r m%nd r o+ $' a&&%d n$78ron na$ur o+ )a1%s$an7:nd%a r la$%ons %n a s$ra$ *%& n;%ronm n$ unal$ r d .y $' %m8ro; m n$ %n $rad and 8ol%$%&al $% s6 T' .ord r 'os$%l%$% s "%$n ss d las$ " 1 ar %n' r n$ %n $' unr sol; d s$a$us o+ .%la$ ral d%s8u$ s6 T'%s ma1 s $' /oC sus& 8$%.l $o ad;an$a* s 1%n* .y on or .o$' s%d s6 - s8%$ $rad%n* a&&usa$%ons %n $' 8as$ s ; ral days, .o$' &oun$r% s 'a; s'o"n a mu$ual %n$ r s$ %n d +us%n* 8r s n$ $ ns%ons $o 1 8 $' 8ro& ss o+ normal%sa$%on on $ra&16 <; n so =u s$%ons 'a; . n ra%s d a.ou$ "' $' r >%s$%n* arran* m n$s ar ad =ua$ +or s&ala$%on &on$rol or n d $o . s$r n*$' n d .y mor +ormal and ro.us$ m &'an%sms? :+ las$ " 1@s &ross7/oC &las' s 'ad $' %r * n s%s %n :nd%a@s &ons$ru&$%on o+ n " .un1 rs $'a$ ar .arr d .y a 2005 a*r m n$ $'a$ +ollo" d $' 2003 & as +%r , 'o" &an s%m%lar ;%ol n& . a; r$ d %n $' +u$ur ? A &all%n* $' s =u n& o+ ; n$s so +ar "%ll ' l8 $o ans" r $' s =u s$%ons6 / $ us $' r +or &ons%d r $' 1no"n +a&$s a.ou$ $' %n&%d n$s o+ January 3, 2 and 10 and $' d ; lo8m n$s $'a$ l d u8 $o $' m6 T' )a1%s$an% ; rs%on o+ 'o" %$ all s$ar$ d +o&us s on $' a$$ m8$ .y $' :nd%an army around $'r mon$'s a*o $o .u%ld n " o.s r;a$%on 8os$s around $' ;%lla* o+ C'aronda %n $' Ba5% )%r s &$or6 B r %$ %s %m8or$an$ $o r &all $' 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$ a*r d . $" n $' $"o &oun$r% s %n 20056 T'%s +ollo" d $' /oC & as +%r a*r d a$ $' 8r%m m%n%s$ r%al l ; l %n 20036 :n $' Au*us$ 2, 2005 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$ %ssu d a+$ r $' s &ond round o+ >8 r$7l ; l $al1s, .o$' &oun$r% s a*r d no$ $o Cd ; lo8 any n " 8os$s and d + n& "or1s alon* $' /oC6D T'%s &omm%$m n$ "as r a++%rm d %n su.s =u n$ 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$s6 E' n ++or$s $o .u%ld n " 8os$s " r mad or sus8 &$ d %n $' 8as$, .ord r +la* m $%n*s " r sou*'$ $o r sol; $' ma$$ r6 T'%s $%m around "' n )a1%s$an% m%l%$ary au$'or%$% s d $ &$ d n " &ons$ru&$%ons . %n* .u%l$ n ar $' /oC $' y as1 d +or $' &us$omary +la* m $%n* $o addr ss $' %ssu 6 T' d%r &$ors * n ral o+ M%l%$ary 08 ra$%ons +rom .o$' &oun$r% s also s8o1 $"%& on $' 'o$l%n 6 E' n )a1%s$an@s o.5 &$%on $o $' &ons$ru&$%on "or1 "as &on; y d %$ "as m $ .y $' :nd%an %ns%s$ n& $'a$ $'%s "as rou$%n ma%n$ nan& o+ old +or$%+%&a$%ons and no$ a & as +%r ;%ola$%on6 -ur%n* 0&$o. r "arn%n*s o; r a louds8 a1 r .y )a1%s$an% $roo8s %n $' ar a also y% ld d no r sul$s6 T' r a+$ r $' &ons$ru&$%on . &am $' &aus o+ >&'an* o+ +%r . $" n $' $"o6 An a&$%on7r a&$%on &y&l +ollo" d6 Mor$ar +%r l d $o :nd%an &la%ms o+ &%;%l%an &asual$% s %n $' ;%lla* 6 T' n +ollo" d a &ross7.ord r :nd%an a$$a&1 on $' )a1%s$an% 8os%$%on a$ Sa"an )a$ra +rom "' r $' +%r%n* %s sa%d $o 'a; &om 6 E'%l >&'an* o+ +%r a&ross $' /oC %s no$ unusual, &ross%n* $' /%n %s r la$%; ly rar and r 8r s n$s an s&ala$ory s$ 8 r *ard d .y .o$' s%d s as a s r%ous & as +%r ;%ola$%on6 T' :nd%an %n&urs%on "%$'%n 30 m $r s o+ $' )a1%s$an% 8os$ "as r 8uls d6 T' ra%d%n*

8ar$y "as &'as d a"ay .u$ $' January 3 &las' &la%m d $' l%+ o+ a )a1%s$an% sold% r and l +$ ano$' r "ound d6 )a1%s$an@s a&&oun$ "as su88or$ d .y a r 8or$ %n T' B%ndu o+ January 106 A&&ord%n* $o $' n "s8a8 r, $' :nd%an army@s .un1 r &ons$ru&$%on s8ar1 d $' s8%ral o+ &ross7 .ord r ;%ol n& F $' "ors$ s%n& $' & as +%r " n$ %n$o ++ &$6 E' n :nd%a@s d + n& m%n%s$ry sou*'$ $o r +u$ $' r 8or$, $' 8a8 r %ns%s$ d $'a$ $' o++%&%al d n%al %n +a&$ a&& 8$ d 1 y l m n$s o+ %$s s$ory %n&lud%n* $' &ons$ru&$%on around C'aronda, "'%&' $r%** r d $' &las' s6 T' day a+$ r $' :nd%an a$$a&1, on January G, )a1%s$an@s -G, M0 s8o1 on $' 'o$l%n "%$' '%s :nd%an &oun$ r8ar$ $o lod* a &om8la%n$ a.ou$ $' Cuna&& 8$a.l D 8ro;o&a$%on6 A day la$ r, )a1%s$an% $roo8s " r a&&us d .y :nd%an o++%&%als o+ &ondu&$%n* a &ross .ord r ra%d %n ano$' r s &$or, a$ Bo$s8r%n*, all * dly 1%ll%n* $"o sold% rs, on o+ "'om "as sa%d $o 'a; . n . ' ad d6 0n $' morn%n* o+ January 4, $' $"o -Gs s8o1 a*a%n6 T'%s $%m $' :nd%an o++%&%al 8ro$ s$ d and d mand d $'a$ )a1%s$an Hr $urn@ $' ' ad o+ $' :nd%an sold% r6 )a1%s$an@s m%l%$ary and +or %*n m%n%s$ry s8o1 sm n d n% d $'%s %n&%d n$ $oo1 8la& and d s&r%. d %$ as an :nd%an +a.r%&a$%on $o d%; r$ a$$ n$%on +rom $' +%rs$ %n&%d n$ and %ns$ ad mal%*n )a1%s$an6 T ll%n*ly an :nd%an army s$a$ m n$ o+ January 2, a$$r%.u$ d $o a s8o1 sman o+ $' !or$' rn Command, mad no r + r n& $o any mu$%la$%on o+ sold% rs@ .od% s, only $o a +%r +%*'$ %n "'%&' $"o sold% rs d% d6 M an"'%l as mu&' o+ $' :nd%an m d%a "'%88 d u8 a +r nIy )a1%s$an@s m d%a r ma%n d mu$ d %n %$s r s8ons 6 E' n o88os%$%on 8ar$% s assa%l d $' Con*r ss *o; rnm n$ +or %$s C" a1 r s8ons D mor 'a"1%s' s$a$ m n$s m r* d +rom :nd%a@s 8ol%$%&al and m%l%$ary l ad rs6 :$ d%dn@$ s$o8 $' r 6 0n January 10 a$ Bo$s8r%n* %n AIad 9as'm%r, sn%8 r +%r +rom :nd%an $roo8s &la%m d $' l%+ o+ a )a1%s$an% sold% r6 :n $' $"o &a8%$als, '%*' &omm%ss%on rs " r summon d, 8ro$ s$s lod* d and d mands mad +or %n; s$%*a$%on %n$o $' d%s8u$ d %n&%d n$s6 :slama.ad@s o++ r $o 'old an %nd 8 nd n$ %n=u%ry o+ & as +%r ;%ola$%ons .y $' (n%$ d !a$%ons 0.s r; rs Grou8 +or :nd%a and )a1%s$an ((nmo*%8) "as r .u++ d .y - l'%, $o no on @s sur8r%s 6 :nd%a 'as n ; r allo" d (nmo*%8 $o o8 ra$ on %$s s%d o+ $' /oC and s%n& 14G2 also r +us d $o r 8or$ &om8la%n$s $o $' o.s r; r *rou86 Jord r $ ns%ons ar l%1 ly $o su.s%d %n $' days a' ad6 Ju$ $' +ra*%l%$y o+ $' /oC %n $' +rau*'$ &on$ >$ o+ a + s$ r%n* d%s8u$ "%ll 8 rs%s$6 And %n $' a.s n& o+ any a&&ommoda$%on o; r 9as'm%r, $' 2003 & as +%r "%ll &on$%nu $o s r; as a "ay o+ ma%n$a%n%n* a $ nuous 8 a& %n a ' a;%ly m%l%$ar%s d and ;ola$%l r *%on6 T' & as +%r 'as .y and lar* ' ld s%n& 2003 d s8%$ 8 r%od%& >&'an* s o+ +%r and o&&as%onal s1%rm%s' s6 :$ "as also o.s r; d dur%n* $' mos$ s r%ous s&ala$%on %n $ ns%ons %n r & n$ y ars $'a$ +ollo" d $' 2002 $ rror%s$ a$$a&1s %n Mum.a%6 A+$ r 2002, :nd%an au$'or%$% s +r =u n$ly a&1no"l d* d $'a$ &ross7/oC C%n+%l$ra$%onD 'ad su.s$an$%ally d &l%n d6 Ju$ &om8la%n$s o+ & as +%r .r a&' s 'a; . n %n&r as%n*6 T' s mu$ual &om8la%n$s " r mos$ r & n$ly r %$ ra$ d dur%n* $' >8 r$7l ; l $al1s on m%l%$ary CJMs %n - l'% on - & m. r 22, 20126 :+ $' & as +%r %s no$ $o . &om a 'os$a* $o %n&%d n$s l%1 $' r & n$ on s, $r%** r d .y &on$ n$%on o; r n " &ons$ru&$%ons, %$ "ould ma1 s ns $o +ormal%s $' a*r m n$ on non7&ons$ru&$%on o+ n " 8os$s alon* $' /oC6 /as$ " 1@s 'os$%l%$% s %llus$ra$ $'a$ $'%s mu$ual &omm%$m n$ &an . und rm%n d .y d%sa*r m n$s o; r "' $' r &ons$ru&$%ons ar "%$'%n $' .arr d ran* 6 T' 2005 und r$a1%n* on non7&ons$ru&$%on o+ 8os$s 'as . n und r d%s&uss%on %n $' >8 r$ l ; l $al1s s%n& 20036 :$ also +%*ur d %n $' las$ round %n - & m. r 20126 -%s&uss%on 'as . n a%m d a$ ;ol;%n* a +ram "or1 a*r m n$ .y s$a.l%s'%n* &l ar 8aram $ rs +or non7&ons$ru&$%on o+ d + n& 8os$s6 Ju$ 8ro*r ss 'as . n *la&%al6 !o &ons nsus 'as m r* d on $' 8ro8os d l m n$s +or su&' an a*r m n$6 )a1%s$an "an$s 8os$s $o . .arr d "%$'%n 500 m $r s on %$' r s%d o+ $' /oC6 -%s&uss%on 'as

also ran* d o; r s8 &%+y%n* $' l%m%$s o+ ma%n$ nan& "or1 +or >%s$%n* 8os$s6 :nd%a %ns%s$s $'a$ ma%n$ nan& r la$ d "or1 on 8r s n$ 8os$s s'ould %n&lud u8*rada$%on o+ $' /oC + n& 6 :slama.ad +%nds $'%s una&& 8$a.l 6 A &on&%l%n* $' s d%++ r n& s $o &on&lud a &om8r ' ns%; &on+%d n& .u%ld%n* m asur m%*'$ ' l8 s$r n*$' n $' & as +%r @s o8 ra$%on6 C'an& s o+ +u$ur &on$ n$%on &an also . m%n%m%s d %+ $'%s %n&or8ora$ s an >8l%&%$ m &'an%sm +or d%s8u$ r solu$%on6 T'%s "%ll no$ l%m%na$ $' %n&%d n$s $'a$ . &om +las'8o%n$s +or .ord r &las' s .u$ %$ "ould addr ss an as8 &$ o+ an as%ly %n+lam d s%$ua$%on6 A mor +undam n$al =u s$%on %s ra%s d a.ou$ $' +u$ur o+ $' normal%sa$%on 8ro& ss6 Can $'%s 8ro& ss . sus$a%n d %+ &on$ n$%ous %ssu s r ma%n unaddr ss d "'%l mo; m n$ %s mad on Hso+$ r@ %ssu s? (l$%ma$ ly dura.l dK$ n$ d 8 nds as mu&' on $' $"o &oun$r% s@ a.%l%$y $o o; r&om $' %r d%; r* n& s as on 8ursu%n* ar as o+ &on; r* n& 6 (nl ss m an%n*+ul s$ 8s ar $a1 n $o %m8ro; $' s &ur%$y &l%ma$ and r sol; d%s8u$ s, $' normal%sa$%on 8ro& ss "%ll . a$ r%s1 o+ r la8s%n* %n$o $ ns%ons6 (n$%l $'%s .road r &on$ >$ ;ol; s, $' /oC "%ll &on$%nu $o s%*n%+y mor ;uln ra.%l%$y $'an s$a.%l%$y6 T' "r%$ r %s s8 &%al ad;%s r $o $' Jan* Grou8LG o and a +orm r n;oy $o $' (S and $' (96 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

"he #ollo!ing + (sers Say "han$ ,ou to 'etDoctor #or "his (se)ul Postan%ya "arra%&' (Tu sday, F .ruary 05, 2013), Asad%.ra'%m (Tu sday, Mar&' 23, 2013), s' 'laa (Tu sday, January 15, 2013)
#2 Tuesday, January 22, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

22nd January, 20136

"he challenge o) peace ma$ing

A$ a 5o%n$ 8r ss &on+ r n& "%$' )r s%d n$ Bam%d 9arIa% on January 11, )r s%d n$ 0.ama announ& d $'a$ !a$o@s s &ur%$y 'ando; r "ould . a&& l ra$ d and &on$rol o+ all o8 ra$%ons $rans+ rr d $o A+*'an +or& s $'%s s8r%n* F a' ad o+ s&' dul and " ll . +or $' dra"do"n o+ mos$ +or %*n +or& s +rom A+*'an%s$an %n 20146 T' announ& m n$ a$$ra&$ d mu&' o+ $' m d%a@s a$$ n$%on dur%n* 9arIa%@s Eas'%n*$on ;%s%$6 As d%d a s $ o+ und &%d d %ssu s a.ou$ $' s8 d o+ $' (S 8ullou$, s&o8 o+ %$s 8os$72014 m%l%$ary 8r s n& and l *al %mmun%$y +or $' r ma%n%n* +or& s6 Mor &ons =u n$%al +or A+*'an%s$an@s +u$ur $'an $' s m%l%$ary %ssu s ar =u s$%ons o+ 8ol%$%&al s$ra$ *y6 A&& l ra$%on o+ d%8loma$%& ++or$s a%m d a$ a 8ol%$%&al s $$l m n$ %s o+ *r a$ r, lon*7$ rm %m8or$an& $'an =u%&1 n%n* $' 8a& o+ $' m%l%$ary dra"do"n6 )ro*r ss on $' 8ol%$%&al $ra&1 "%ll mor s%*n%+%&an$ly s'a8 $' s$ra$ *%& n;%ronm n$ %n "'%&' $' 2014 $rans%$%on "%ll $a1 8la& 6 From $'%s 8 rs8 &$%; , %$ "as no$ "or$'y $'a$ dur%n* $' n "s &on+ r n& .o$' l ad rs@ r %$ ra$ d su88or$ +or $al1s "%$' $' Tal%.an and +or $' +%rs$ $%m )r s%d n$

0.ama 8u.l%&ly ndors d $' s$a.l%s'm n$ o+ a Tal%.an o++%& $o +a&%l%$a$ $' s $al1s6 Su&' an o++%& 'as >%s$ d uno++%&%ally +or som $%m , .u$ 'as y $ $o +ormally o8 n or . o++%&%ally r &o*n%s d6 T' s$a$ m n$ a.ou$ $' Tal%.an o++%& su** s$ d $"o $'%n*s6 0n $'a$ 9arIa% 'ad . n 8r ;a%l d u8on $o &on& d *round, *%; n '%s o.5 &$%ons $o a 8ol%$%&al 8ro& ss ou$s%d A+*'an%s$an6 T' s m%s*%;%n*s " r r %$ ra$ d mor s$r%d n$ly +ollo"%n* las$ mon$'@s un8r & d n$ d m $%n* %n Fran& . $" n d%++ r n$ A+*'an *rou8s %n&lud%n* Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s6 Mor %m8or$an$ly $' announ& m n$ s%*nall d (S 1 nn ss $o r ;%; d%r &$ &on$a&$s "%$' $' Tal%.an $'a$ . *an " ll o; r a y ar a*o and &am $o &ons$%$u$ a nas& n$ HNa$ar 8ro& ss@, "'%&' a%m d $o %ns$all +ormal n *o$%a$%ons6 :n Mar&' 2012, $al1s " r sus8 nd d "' n Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s a&&us d (S %n$ rlo&u$ors o+ r n *%n* on &omm%$m n$s, $' mos$ %m8or$an$ . %n* $' $rans+ r o+ +%; Tal%.an 8r%son rs +rom Guan$anamo $o -o'a6 0n $' ; o+ 9arIa%@s (S $r%8, Am r%&an o++%&%als s$a$ d $' %r %n$ n$%on C$o a&& l ra$ $' 8 a& 8ro& ssD, +or "'%&' $' y sa%d )a1%s$an 'ad an H%m8or$an$ rol @ $o 8lay6 E'%$ Bous o++%&%als also sa%d $' y sa" Ca 8ol%$%&al s $$l m n$ as a.solu$ ly ss n$%al $o .r%n* $' "ar $o a r s8ons%.l &los D6 T' s s$a$ m n$s +ollo" d a +lurry o+ d%8loma$%& a&$%;%$y . $" n )a1%s$an and A+*'an%s$an6 9a.ul 8ro8os d a H) a& )ro& ss Aoad Ma8 $o 2015@, "'%l )a1%s$an r l as d s ; ral m%d7l ; l Tal%.an m m. rs +rom %$s &us$ody6 T' road ma8 'o" ; r s%m8ly la%d ou$ "'a$ 'ad $o . a&&om8l%s' d %n a +%; 78'as 8ro& ss, no$ 'o" $o a&&om8l%s' $'os *oals or $' a&&ommoda$%on $'%s "ould r =u%r 6 :$ d%d no$ %nd%&a$ "'a$ "ould . o++ r d $o $' Tal%.an $o n&oura* $' m $o 5o%n $' 8ro& ss6 :+, %n %$s 8r s n$ +orm, $' HAoad Ma8@ + ll s'or$ o+ an > &u$a.l 8lan, %$ "as also un& r$a%n 'o" $' Tal%.an d $a%n s@ r l as "ould ad;an& r &on&%l%a$%on (o$' r $'an .u%ld *ood"%ll . $" n :slama.ad and 9a.ul) %n $' a.s n& o+ a &r d%.l 8 a& 8ro& ss +or $' m $o 5o%n6 T' %r r l as ;o1 d &on& rn +rom (S o++%&%als "'o as1 d +or 8r%or &onsul$a$%ons . +or :slama.ad +r d any mor Tal%.an m m. rs6 :slama.ad "as also ur* d $o Hmon%$or@ $' r l as d 8r%son rs F a $as1 )a1%s$an% o++%&%als + l$ >& d d $' %r &a8a&%$y6 T' - & m. r 20721 m $%n* %n C'an$%lly, Fran& d%d 'o" ; r mar1 an %m8or$an$ >8lora$ory n*a* m n$ . $" n r 8r s n$a$%; s o+ 9a.ul@s B%*' ) a& Coun&%l, Tal%.an, !or$' rn All%an& and o$' r A+*'an *rou8s %n&lud%n* "om n6 :n $' %r s$a$ m n$ $o $' &on+ r n& $' $"o Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s, S'a'a.udd%n -%la"ar and Mo'amm d !a%m, rul d ou$ $al1s "%$' $' 9a.ul *o; rnm n$ .u$ >8r ss d "%ll%n*n ss $o $al1 $o $' !or$' rn All%an& and o$' r *rou8s6 T' %r s$a$ m n$ &'ara&$ r%s d 9a.ul@s $ rms +or $al1s as $an$amoun$ $o Csurr nd r o+ $' Mu5a'%d n und r $' $%$l o+ 8 a& D6 - s8%$ $' s 8r l%m%nary >&'an* s, $' +undam n$al r al%$y %s $'a$ $' r %s s$%ll no a*r d +ram "or1 or &o' r n$ 8ro& ss $'a$ &an lay $' .as%s +or s r%ous 8 a& n *o$%a$%ons6 T' Am r%&an n;oy $o 9a.ul Jam s Cunn%n*'am a&1no"l d* d as mu&' "' n ' sa%d las$ " 1 $'a$ $' A+*'an r &on&%l%a$%on 8ro& ss C'asn@$ ; n . *un6D T' C'an$%lly m $%n* %nd%&a$ s $'a$ "'%l o88os%n* A+*'an *rou8s s m "%ll%n* $o ass m.l a$ &on+ r n& s $'%s do s no$ $ransla$ %n$o an %n$ n$%on $o n *o$%a$ , mu&' l ss $o s $$l 6 ! ; r$' l ss, %n$ ns .%la$ ral and $r%la$ ral d%s&uss%ons ar und r"ay a.ou$ 'o" $o r a&' ou$ $o $' Tal%.an F . $" n 9a.ul, :slama.ad and Eas'%n*$on6 -%s&uss%on 'as som $%m s %n;ol; d Hma88%n*@ ++or$s $o %d n$%+y "'o@s "'o %n $' Tal%.an and "'a$ &'ann ls $o 8ursu 6 )a1%s$an 'as s'o"n "%ll%n*n ss $o su88or$ d%++ r n$ $ra&1s 8ro8os d .y ;ar%ous s$a1 'old rs .u$ s$r ss d $'a$ $' s s'ould . mu$ually r %n+or&%n*6 To ma1 r al 8ro*r ss, $' s ;ar%ous $ra&1s "ould 'a; $o ; n$ually &on; r* and

8 a& 7ma1%n* ++or$s &'ann ll d %n$o a s%n*l , &ons%s$ n$ 8ro& ss a&& 8$a.l $o 1 y 8lay rs and 8o$ n$%al n *o$%a$ors6 0$' r"%s d%8loma$%& n r*% s "%ll d%ss%8a$ %n s&a$$ r d ++or$s6 0n& +ormal%s d, a Tal%.an o++%& %n -o'a &ould assum a 1 y rol %n ' l8%n* $o %nau*ura$ a su.s$an$%al 8 a& 8ro& ss6 Ju$ $' 8a$' a' ad %s s$r "n "%$' d%++%&ul$% s6 S ; ral o.s$a&l s 'a; $o . o; r&om . +or $' Na$ar 8ro& ss &an * $ und r"ay6 For a s$ar$ $' 0.ama adm%n%s$ra$%on "%ll 'a; $o mo; "%$' mu&' *r a$ r ur* n&y $'an %$ 'as s'o"n so +ar6 :$ %s also un&l ar "'a$ $' 8r s n$ s$a$us %s o+ s ; ral &on+%d n& 7.u%ld%n* m asur s r *ard d arl% r .y Am r%&an and Tal%.an %n$ rlo&u$ors as n & ssary $o laun&' $' 8ol%$%&al o++%& 6 -%++ r n& s 'a; &on$%nu d on "'a$ $'%s s'ould . &all d and ass%*n d $o do, s8 &%ally as 9arIa% + ars $'%s "ould s'%+$ +o&us +rom 9a.ul $o -o'a as $' ; nu +or 8 a& $al1s and ; n$ually s%d l%n '%m6 T' s $ o+ CJMs $'a$ " r und r n *o$%a$%on . +or (S7Tal%.an $al1s .ro1 do"n %n;ol; d mo;%n* +%; Tal%.an d $a%n s +rom Guan$anamo %n >&'an* +or Jo" J r*da'l, $' Am r%&an 8r%son r ' ld .y $' Tal%.an7al%*n d Ba==an% n $"or16 T' CJMs also n$a%l d Tal%.an s$a$ m n$s d noun&%n* %n$ rna$%onal $ rror%sm and ass n$%n* $o n$ r $al1s "%$' Ho$' r A+*'ans@ F a "ay o+ s%d s$ 88%n* $' Tal%.an@s o88os%$%on $o $al1%n* $o 9a.ul6 T' modal%$% s and s =u n&%n* o+ $' s s$ 8s %s s$%ll $o . d $ rm%n d and "%ll l%1 ly . $' su.5 &$ o+ %n$ ns , . '%nd7$' 7s& n s n *o$%a$%ons6 (S d%8loma$%& ++or$s $o"ards $'%s nd ar >8 &$ d $o %n$ ns%+y %n $' &om%n* mon$'s6 T' 1 y =u s$%on %s "'a$ $' (S "%ll . 8r 8ar d $o o++ r $' Tal%.an $o n$%& $' m $o r sum $al1s "' n Tal%.an l ad rs 1no" $'a$ %n und r $"o y ars mos$ Am r%&an $roo8s "%ll d 8ar$ A+*'an%s$an6 For %$s 8ar$ )a1%s$an 'as &omm%$$ d $o ' l8 $' Na$ar 8 a& ++or$6 /as$ " 1@s m $%n* . $" n For %*n S &r $ary Jal%l A..as J%lan%, Am r%&an and A+*'an o++%&%als %n A.u -'a.% "as 8ar$ o+ &onsul$a$%ons $'a$ %n&lud d mo;%n* $'%s 8ro& ss +or"ard6 T' u8&om%n* ;%s%$ .y s n%or (S o++%&%als $o :slama.ad $'%s " 1 "%ll l%1 ly 'a; a s%m%lar 8ur8os 6 )a1%s$an 'as lon* &all d +or &ar +ul s =u n&%n* o+ s$ 8s $o s$a.l%s' $' &ond%$%ons +or a s r%ous 8 a& 8ro& ss6 :$ 'as also m8'as%s d $' n d +or A+*'an%s$an, )a1%s$an and $' (S $o ;ol; an a*r d 8ol%$%&al s$ra$ *y $'a$ %n&lud s a mu$ual r du&$%on o+ ;%ol n& and an ; n$ual & as +%r $o 8r 8ar $' *round +or a Hn *o$%a$ d 8 a& @6 :$ r ma%ns un& r$a%n a$ "'a$ s$a* and und r "'a$ &ond%$%ons $' Am r%&ans "%ll . 8r 8ar d $o &all a 'al$ $o +%*'$%n*6 T' A+*'an Hroad ma8@ %$s l+ n;%sa* s a & as +%r %n $' s &ond 'al+ o+ 20136 M an"'%l $' Tal%.an r s$a$ d $' %r n *o$%a$%n* 8os%$%on a$ $' &on+ r n& %n Fran& "%$' +am%l%ar &or d mands: "%$'dra"al o+ all +or %*n +or& s, nd $o o&&u8a$%on, &'an* s %n $' &ons$%$u$%on %n a&&ordan& "%$' :slam%& 8r%n&%8l s, r l as o+ %m8r%son d Tal%.an l ad rs and d l%s$%n* +rom $' (! san&$%ons l%s$6 Ju$ $' y also d &lar d $'a$ $' y " r no$ %n$ r s$ d %n mono8ol%s%n* 8o" r, "ould "or1 "%$' o$' rs and r s8 &$ "om n@s r%*'$s6 0nly "' n s r%ous n *o$%a$%ons . *%n &an $' Tal%.an . $ s$ d on 'o" mu&' +l >%.%l%$y $' y 'a; on 1 y %ssu s6 T' loom%n* d adl%n o+ 2014 %m8ar$s ur* n&y $o * $$%n* 8 a& $al1s *o%n*6 All s$a1 'old rs s'ould 'a; a &ommon %n$ r s$ $o nsur a s$a.l ou$&om +or A+*'an%s$an@s s &ur%$y and 8ol%$%&al $rans%$%ons and &oo8 ra$ $o a; r$ "ors$7&as s& nar%os6 !o on "ould "an$ 2014 $o . &om ano$' r 1424, l as$ o+ all )a1%s$an6 T' "r%$ r %s s8 &%al ad;%s r $o $' Jan* Grou8LG o and a +orm r n;oy $o $' (S and $' (96 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

"he #ollo!ing (ser Says "han$ ,ou to 'etDoctor #or "his (se)ul Posts' 'laa (E dn sday, January 23, 2013)
#3 Tuesday, January 29, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

24$' January 20136

ooming crisis
Jy %n%$%a$%n* d%s&uss%ons "%$' $' :n$ rna$%onal Mon $ary Fund +or ano$' r 8ro*ramm , $' *o; rnm n$ 'as a&1no"l d* d "'a$ %$ arl% r ' s%$a$ d $o do F $'a$ "%$'ou$ a .a%lou$ 8a&1a* )a1%s$an "%ll no$ . a.l $o m $ %$s +%nan&%n* r =u%r m n$s %n $' +a& o+ d 8l $%n* +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s6 J ++r y Fran1s, $' :MF o++%&%al r & n$ly %n :slama.ad ma%nly +or &onsul$a$%ons on 8os$78ro*ramm mon%$or%n*, sa%d $'a$ )a1%s$an 'ad no$ y $ mad a +ormal r =u s$ +or a n " 8a&1a* 6 Ju$ %$ %s a88ar n$ $'a$ $al1s 'a; . n und r"ay $o 8r 8ar $' *round +or on 6 E' n $' +%nan& m%n%s$ r ;%s%$ d Eas'%n*$on $"o mon$'s a*o, an %n+ormal r =u s$ "as mad $o $' Fund au$'or%$% s $o >8lor $' 8oss%.%l%$y o+ a s$and.y arran* m n$6 Tal1s ' ld %n :slama.ad arl% r %n January s m d a%m d a$ $a1%n* $'%s 8ro& ss +or"ard6 T' s d%s&uss%ons 'a; . n %m8 ll d .y $' &oun$ry@s s$ ad%ly d $ r%ora$%n* >$ rnal 8os%$%on, "'%&' 'as ' %*'$ n d $' r%s1 o+ a +or %*n >&'an* &run&' +u ll d .y a +%nan&%n* *a8 $'a$, d s8%$ s$ron* r m%$$an& s, &anno$ . m $ .y d"%ndl%n* >$ rnal %n+lo"s6 A .alan& o+ 8aym n$s &r%s%s may no$ . %mm%n n$, .u$ s ms %n s&a8a.l %n $' la$$ r 8ar$ o+ 2013 *%; n $' 8r s n$ s $ o+ n *a$%; $r nds and $' a.s n& o+ >$ rnal +%nan&%n*6 T' $r nds %n&lud dry%n* u8 o+ &a8%$al %n+lo"s and r%s%n* >$ rnal d .$ l%a.%l%$% s a$ a $%m "' n r s r; s ar d &l%n%n* and $' ru8 @s ;alu 'as . n s%*n%+%&an$ly rod d6 :$ %s 'ard $o 8r d%&$ "' n a $%88%n* 8o%n$ &ould . r a&' d "%$' 8an%& s $$%n* %n, &a8%$al +l%*'$ o&&urr%n* and, as a &ons =u n& , $' >&'an* ra$ *o%n* %n$o a do"n"ard s8%ral6 T' d%s&uss%ons %n :slama.ad $oo1 8la& a*a%ns$ $' .a&1dro8 o+ a *r%m and "ors n%n* ma&ro &onom%& 8%&$ur 6 T' :MF s$%ma$ s $'a$ $' .ud* $ d +%&%$ "%ll . . $" n G and G65 8 r& n$ o+ G-) $'%s +%s&al y ar, mu&' '%*' r $'an $' o++%&%al $ar* $ o+ 46G 8 r& n$6 T'%s do s no$ %n&lud $' =uas%7+%s&al d +%&%$ &aus d .y loss s %n 8u.l%& s &$or n$ r8r%s s, "'%&' ar no$ %n&lud d %n $' .ud* $, and $' +loa$%n* d .$ $'a$ &r a$ s *o; rnm n$ l%a.%l%$% s6 A ; nu 8 r+orman& 'as . n 8oor, ; n "ors $'an las$ y ar6 T' a.ysmally lo" $a>7$o7G-) ra$%o %s a$ $' ' ar$ o+ $' &oun$ry@s unaddr ss d +%s&al &r%s%s6 T' unr +orm d n r*y s &$or &on$%nu s $o . a 'u* dra%n on *o; rnm n$ r sour& s "%$' su.s%d% s and +%nan&%n* o+ %n$ ra* n&y d .$ =u%;al n$ $o o; r 165 8 r& n$ o+ G-)6 T' $rou.l s o+ $'%s s &$or ar s$un$%n* *ro"$' and + d%n* %n$o a runa"ay +%s&al 8ro.l m6 M an"'%l $' &oun$ry r ma%ns m%r d %n a lo"7 =u%l%.r%um $ra8, as %n+la$%onary 8r ssur s &on$%nu "%$' *ro"$' . %n* s$a*nan$6 T' >$ rnal 8os%$%on %s ; n mor 8r &ar%ous6 T' und rly%n* $r nds ar n *a$%; 6 Ju$ $rans% n$ +a&$ors, %n&lud%n* O2 .%ll%on %n &oal%$%on su88or$ +unds r & %; d +rom $'

(S 'a; mad $' +%rs$ 'al+ o+ $'%s +%s&al y ar a88 ar d & 8$%; ly s$a.l 6 S%m%larly, lo" r o%l 8r%& s 'a; ' l8 d $o 8r ; n$ $' &urr n$ a&&oun$ d +%&%$ +rom . &om%n* lar* r6 Ju$ s$ ady ros%on o+ +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s, "%$' mor 8aym n$s $o $' :MF du %n &om%n* mon$'s, m ans $'a$ $' &oun$ry "%ll . una.l $o m $ %$s >$ rnal +%nan&%n* r =u%r m n$s unl ss %n+lo"s ma$ r%al%s +rom som "' r 6 E%$' +or %*n d%r &$ %n; s$m n$ a$ an all7$%m lo" and o$' r >$ rnal %n+lo"s $a8 r%n* o++, a 8 r+ &$ s$orm %s .u%ld%n*6 )aym n$s $o $' :MF +or $' r s$ o+ +%s&al 2013 ar O163 .%ll%on, "%$' ano$' r O2 .%ll%on du %n July7- & m. r 20136 T' 8r s n$ O26G .%ll%on %n r s r; s ' ld .y $' S$a$ Jan1 &o; r a.ou$ $"o mon$'s o+ %m8or$s6 Fur$' r dra"do"ns "%ll 8us' +or %*n &urr n&y r s r; s $o a dan* rous l ; l6 T'%s &ould $' n dr%; $' &oun$ry $o $' d* o+ d +aul$ on %$s >$ rnal l%a.%l%$% s6 Alr ady 8r ssur on $' >&'an* ra$ 'as s n$ $' ru8 8lun*%n* $o a r &ord lo" a*a%ns$ $' dollar6 T' s8 &$r o+ a +%nan&%al &r%s%s 'as +or& d $' *o; rnm n$, "'%&' +a%l d $o %m8l m n$ $' 8r ;%ous :MF a*r m n$, .a&1 $o $al1s "%$' $' Fund6 -%s&uss%ons so +ar 'a; s n $' *o; rnm n$ %nd%&a$ $' +%s&al 8a$' and m asur s %$ %s 8r 8ar d $o $a1 $o =ual%+y +or a n " s$and.y 8ro*ramm 6 Fund o++%&%als ar sa%d $o . r ;% "%n* $' s 8ro8osals and ;alua$%n* add%$%onal m asur s $'a$ "%ll . n d d6 T'%s $%m $' :MF "%ll . loo1%n* +or .old r +orm a&$%ons, no$ 8a$&'"or1, lo"7=ual%$y m asur s, $o addr ss $' &oun$ry@s s$ru&$ural &onom%& 8ro.l ms6 G%; n )a1%s$an@s 8r ;%ous $ra&1 r &ord o+ s$ar$7s$o8 ad5us$m n$, a n " 8a&1a* &an . >8 &$ d $o +ron$7load r +orm m asur s, o.l%*%n* :slama.ad $o $a1 8r%or 8ol%&y a&$%ons6 /oan d%s.urs m n$s "ould l%1 ly . mor 8'as d F %n &on$ras$ $o $' "ay $' O11 .%ll%on loan 8a&1a* "as s$ru&$ur d %n 20026 T' =u s$%on $'%s ra%s s %s 'o", "%$' l ss $'an $"o mon$'s l +$ %n o++%& , &an $' )))7 l d &oal%$%on n *o$%a$ and &on&lud an :MF a*r m n$, *%; n $'a$ l &$%ons ar around $' &orn r and a &ar $a1 r *o; rnm n$ "%ll . %ns$all d %n 5us$ %*'$ " 1s6 A r +orm7a; rs *o; rnm n$, lon* %n a s$a$ o+ 8ol%&y 8aralys%s, %s 'ardly %n a 8os%$%on $o $a1 8ol%$%&ally $ou*' m asur s, n & ssary und r an :MF 8ro*ramm on l &$%on ; 6 Mor l%1 ly $' *o; rnm n$ s s n*a* m n$ "%$' $' :MF as a m ans $o 1 8 s'a1y mar1 $s +rom 8an%&1%n* and s'or u8 &on+%d n& a' ad o+ l &$%ons6 From s$a$ m n$s mad .y $' ;%s%$%n* :MF o++%&%al, %$ %s a88ar n$ $'a$ "%$' l &$%ons a88roa&'%n*, $' Fund "%ll "an$ a Cd 8 and .roadD .uy %n +rom $' ma%n 8ol%$%&al 8ar$% s . +or &on&lud%n* a n " 8ro*ramm ; n %+ $' *o; rnm n$ "an$ d on 6 T' r ar s ; ral 8r & d n$s +rom o$' r &oun$r% s "' r $' :MF sou*'$ assuran& s o+ su88or$ +rom ma5or 8ol%$%&al a&$ors +or $' ma%n $'rus$ o+ 8ol%&% s und rly%n* a 8a&1a* 6 T'%s "as $o %nsur $'a$ $' 8ro*ramm "ould . %m8l m n$ d a+$ r $' l &$%ons6 For >am8l , an :MF 8ro*ramm n *o$%a$ d "%$' JraI%l %n 2001702 %n;ol; d &onsul$a$%ons "%$' $' Eor1 rs@ )ar$y o+ /ula da S%l;a, "'o la$ r . &am $' &oun$ry@s 8r s%d n$6 E%ll )a1%s$an@s o88os%$%on 8ar$% s l nd su88or$ $o $' *o; rnm n$ +or an :MF 8ro*ramm %+ on &an . n *o$%a$ d ; n a$ $'%s la$ 'our? (nl%1 ly, *%; n $' %n$ ns ly 8ar$%san and &'ar* d a$mos8' r $'a$ 8r ;a%ls %n $' run7u8 $o l &$%ons6 Can $' %n$ r%m *o; rnm n$ $' n +%nal%s an :MF arran* m n$ and s$ar$ n+or&%n* 8a%n+ul r +orm m asur s? E%ll %$ 'a; $' manda$ and $%m $o do so? T' r %s $' 8r & d n$ o+ 1443 "' n Mo n Nur s'% n *o$%a$ d an :MF a*r m n$ and . *an %m8l m n$%n* %$ as &ar $a1 r 8r%m m%n%s$ r6 Ju$ $' n $' &oun$ry@s $"o ma5or 8ar$% s a88ro; d $' .road &on$ours o+ $' 8a&1a* and &omm%$$ d $o &on$%nu %$ a+$ r l &$%ons6 T' >$raord%nary &%r&ums$an& s and &om.%na$%on o+ 8 rsonal%$% s $'a$ mad $'%s ou$&om 8oss%.l ar no$ 8r s n$ $oday "' n $' dynam%&s ar ; ry d%++ r n$6 Also un& r$a%n %s 'o" $' :MF "ould ;% " n *o$%a$%n* an a*r m n$ "%$' an %n$ r%m adm%n%s$ra$%on s8 &%ally %n $' +a& o+ an un8r d%&$a.l l &$%on ou$&om 6 :n $'

r & n$ &as o+ <*y8$, $' Fund s m d r lu&$an$ $o +or* an a*r m n$ "%$' a $rans%$%onal *o; rnm n$6 :$ "a%$ d un$%l a+$ r $' l &$%ons $o s$ar$ s r%ous n *o$%a$%ons6 0n $' o$' r 'and, :MF n *o$%a$%ons %n Gr & %n 2011712 %n;ol; d an %n$ r%m Cna$%onal un%$y *o; rnm n$D as " ll as ma5or 8ol%$%&al 8ar$% s +or "'a$ "as &all d $' Hs &ond .a%lou$ 8ro*ramm @6 S%m%larly an :MF and <( 8ro*ramm n *o$%a$ d "%$' :r land %n 2010 n$a%l d &onsul$a$%ons "%$' o$' r 8ol%$%&al 8ar$% s6 E' n $' :r%s' l &$%ons .rou*'$ $' ma%n o88os%$%on 8ar$y $o 8o" r, $' n " *o; rnm n$ r n *o$%a$ d l m n$s o+ $' 8ro*ramm "'%l ma%n$a%n%n* %$s o; rall d%r &$%on6 T' r ar many un1no"ns *o%n* +or"ard6 E'a$ %s no$ %n dou.$ %s $'a$ $' *o; rnm n$ $'a$ "%ll m r* +rom l &$%ons "%ll %n' r%$ 8u.l%& +%nan& s %n a 8 r%lous s$a$ and an &onomy %n a d%r &ond%$%on6 T' l *a&y "%ll %n&lud unsus$a%na.l .ud* $ and .alan& o+ 8aym n$s d +%&%$s, d 8l $ d +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s, r &ord dom s$%& and +or %*n d .$, '%s$or%&ally lo" l ; ls o+ dom s$%& and +or %*n %n; s$m n$, +la%l%n* 8u.l%& s &$or n$ r8r%s s, '%*' %n+la$%on and an unr sol; d n r*y &r%s%s .l d%n* %n$o $' &onomy6 T' 1 y =u s$%on %s "' $' r $' n >$ *o; rnm n$ "%ll 'a; $' 8arl%am n$ary s$r n*$' and 8ol%$%&al "%ll $o a&$ s"%+$ly and d &%s%; ly $o a; r$ a +%nan&%al &r%s%s, "'%&' m%*'$ $' n . loom%n* mu&' &los r6 T' "r%$ r %s s8 &%al ad;%s r $o $' Jan* Grou8LG o and a +orm r n;oy $o $' (S and $' (96 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

#4 Tuesday, February 05, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

5$' + .ruary 20136

#light )rom reality

T'a$ on l ad r a+$ r ano$' r +rom $' rul%n* 8ar$y 'as . n all *%n* a H&ons8%ra&y@ $o d lay l &$%ons %nd%&a$ s $'a$ $'%s %s no" $' 8ar$y l%n %rr s8 &$%; o+ "' $' r $' r %s any ;%d n& $o ma$&' $' &la%m6 A88roa&'%n* a +ull7$ rm %n o++%& 'ardly s=uar s "%$' ass r$%ons o+ 8lo$s $o d ra%l d mo&ra&y .y a *o; rnm n$ $'a$ 'as +r =u n$ly &as$ &r%$%&%sm as &ons8%ra&y and d 8loy d a ;%&$%m narra$%; as an al%.% +or %$s la&1lus$r 8 r+orman& %n 8o" r6 :n a s$a$ m n$ las$ " 1 S na$or AaIa Aa..an% d &lar d $'a$ a &ons8%ra&y "as . %n* 'a$&' d $o d lay * n ral l &$%ons +or $"o y ars6 B d%dn@$ say .y "'om6 Mor %m8or$an$ly ' %*nor d $' +a&$ $'a$ .y announ&%n* an l &$%on da$ '%s *o; rnm n$ &ould, %n on s$ro1 nd all rumours and $'"ar$ $' so7&all d H8lo$ $o 8u$ o++ l &$%ons@6 Con; rs ly, .y d lay%n* $' announ& m n$ $' rul%n* 8ar$y &ould &on$%nu $o %n;o1 $' .o* y o+ H&ons8%ra&y@6 )r%m M%n%s$ r Aa5a ) r;a%I As'ra+ also 5o%n d $' &ons8%ra&y &'orus las$ " 1, &on$rad%&$%n* an arl% r s$a$ m n$ %n "'%&' ' 8ronoun& d $'a$ all s$a1 'old rs " r

&omm%$$ d $o d mo&ra&y F $' 5ud%&%ary, $' army and 8ol%$%&al 8ar$% s6 :n '%s la$ s$ s$a$ m n$ ' 8or$ray d unnam d Can$%7d mo&ra$%& +or& sD $o . n*a* d %n %n$r%*u s $o und rm%n d mo&ra&y6 E'y ar *o; rnm n$ l ad rs *o%n* on and on a.ou$ &ons8%ra&% s? :s $'%s ou$ o+ 'a.%$? )arano%a? :s %$ a 8loy $o d%; r$ a$$ n$%on +rom $' r al %ssu s and $rou.l s a++l%&$%n* $' &oun$ry? -o s $'%s r 8r s n$ a +l%*'$ +rom r al%$y? :s %$ a &om.%na$%on o+ all o+ $' a.o; ? Go; rnm n$ su88or$ rs "ould ar*u $'a$ $' %r 8ar$y@s s$an& %s %n+orm d .y %$s '%s$or%&al >8 r% n& 6 Ju$ $' r %s also $' r al%$y $'a$ $'%s "%ll . $' s &ond ))) *o; rnm n$ $o &om8l $ %$s $ rm6 T' +%rs$ l &$ d *o; rnm n$ $o +%n%s' %$s $ nur "as $'a$ o+ Pul+%1ar Al% J'u$$o "' n ' &all d 8arl%am n$ary l &$%ons %n 14GG6 Ba.%$ may s$%ll s r; as 8ar$%al >8lana$%on +or $' +r =u n&y "%$' "'%&' $' ))) &r% s &ons8%ra&y6 Ju$ $' r may . o$' r mor 8 rsuas%; r asons +or $'%s6 As $' l &$%ons dra" &los r ))) l ad rs 'a; s$ 88 d u8 $' &ons8%ra&y r' $or%&6 T'%s s$r n*$' ns $' %m8r ss%on $'a$ $' narra$%; s ms mor a s$ra$a* m $'an a + ar F $o 1 8 8u.l%& and m d%a a$$ n$%on as d%s$ra&$ d as 8oss%.l +rom $' *o; rnm n$@s und r"' lm%n* r &ord %n o++%& 6 E'a$ . $$ r %n 8ursu%$ o+ $'%s a%m $'an $o 'a; T, $al1 s'o"s m.ro%l d %n d .a$%n* $an$al%s%n* and s'ado"y 8lo$s, so"%n* &on+us%on %n o88os%$%on ran1s and 1 8%n* n "s ' adl%n s $rans+%> d on $' &ons8%ra&y7o+7$' 7day F all $' "'%l $a1%n* 8r ssur o++ $' *o; rnm n$? (sually "%$' l &$%ons around $' &orn r, $' %n&um. n$ 8ar$y $r% s $o s$ al a mar&' on %$s r%;als .y mars'all%n* ou$ %$s a&&om8l%s'm n$s %n o++%& $o o++ r ;o$ rs a &om8 ll%n* ra$%onal +or "'y %$ s'ould . ;o$ d .a&1 $o 8o" r6 T'a$ ))) l ad rs s m $o . d%r &$%n* $' %r n r*% s $o +%*'$%n* o++ H&ons8%ra&% s@ su** s$s $' y don@$ 'a; mu&' .y "ay o+ a&'% ; m n$s $o 8r s n$ $o $' 8 o8l 6 Go; rnm n$ &ondu&$ on o$' r +ron$s $oo s'o"s s%m%lar $a&$%&s $o d +l &$ +o&us a"ay +rom %ssu s u88 rmos$ on $' 8u.l%& a* nda F " a1 *o; rnan& , "%d s8r ad &orru8$%on, a d $ r%ora$%n* &onomy, .r a1do"n o+ la" and ord r, sur* %n s &$ar%an ;%ol n& and $' "ors n%n* 8o" r &r%s%s6 T' la$ s$ >am8l o+ d%; rs%onary $a&$%&s "as $' 8ro8osal .y a *o; rnm n$ a88o%n$ d 8arl%am n$ary &omm%ss%on +or a n " 8ro;%n& %n )un5a. "'os a..r ;%a$%on, JJ) (Ja'a"al8ur Janoo.% )un5a.), arn d $' o88os%$%on@s r%d%&ul 6 Com%n* +rom a &omm%ss%on %n "'%&' r 8r s n$a$%; s +rom )un5a. " r a.s n$, $' 8ro8osal s m d l%$$l mor $'an an l &$%on s$un$6 :$ "as s n $o . &on$rary $o $' unan%mous r solu$%on 8ass d las$ y ar .y $' )un5a. ass m.ly, "'%&' su88or$ d a n " 8ro;%n& .u$ no$ alon* $'n%& l%n s6 T' *o; rnm n$@s 'al+7.a1 d 8ro8osal also s m d $o .a&1+%r 8ol%$%&ally, 8ro;o1%n* 8ro$ s$s %n sou$' rn )un5a., "' r $' ))) "an$ d $o .ols$ r %$s l &$oral &'an& s6 T' /a'or B%*' Cour$ add d ano$' r d%m ns%on $o $' &on$ro; rsy .y =u s$%on%n* $' l *al s$a$us o+ $' 8arl%am n$ary &omm%ss%on, 'old%n* $'a$ $' 8r s n$ ass m.l% s 'ad no manda$ $o &r a$ n " 8ro;%n& s6 T'%s 8ro8osal so &los $o l &$%ons %n;%$ d dou.$s a.ou$ $' mo$%; s o+ %$s mo; rs sa%d on 5ud* 6 T' &on$ro; rsy 8us' d $' &oun$ry@s 8r ss%n* &'all n* s %n$o $' .a&1*round and nsur d $'a$ 8ol%$%&al d .a$ %n 8arl%am n$ and $' m d%a s"%rl d around $' %ssu o+ n " 8ro;%n& s6 T'%s r %n+or& d $' la&1 o+ a$$ n$%on $'a$ $' &oun$ry@s ma%n 8ol%$%&al a&$ors *a; $o %ssu s $'a$ " %*' ' a;%ly on $' 8u.l%& m%nd6 So d%d $' $"o ma5or 8ar$% s@ 8r o&&u8a$%on, %n * ar%n* u8 +or l &$%ons, "%$' 8ol%$%&al mano u;r%n* and "' l%n* and d al%n*6 T' +o&us o+ $'%s a&$%;%$y "as on n$%&%n* H l &$a.l @ &and%da$ s $o s"%$&' loyal$% s +rom o$' r 8ar$% s6 )ol%$%&al >8 d% n&y rul d $' day no$ 8r%n&%8l or ar$%&ula$%on o+ 8ar$y 8os%$%ons on 1 y %ssu s o+ 8u.l%& 8ol%&y6 T' 8ol%$%&s o+ n*%n r%n* d + &$%ons and .a&1 room d als $oo1 8r & d n& o; r any ++or$ $o r s8ond $o $' n ds and *r% ;an& s o+ &%$%I ns or r a&' ou$ $o $' m $o *au* $' %r as8%ra$%ons6 T' 9'osa +am%ly %n )un5a. 8ro;%d d $' mos$ *r *%ous

>am8l o+ 8 rsonal%s d 8ol%$%&s, n&oura* d .y $' s$ra$ *% s o+ $' ma5or 8ar$% s6 T' ld r 9'osa and '%s son announ& d $' y "ould &on$ s$ a*a%ns$ a&' o$' r +rom $' 8la$+orm o+ $' )M/7! and ))) r s8 &$%; ly6 T' n ar >&lus%; +o&us on ma&'%na$%ons $o 8 rsuad lo&al %n+lu n$%als $o &'an* loyal$% s $urn d 8r 7 l &$%on 8ol%$%&s %n$o %n$ra7 l%$ &om8 $%$%on $'a$ 'ad no$'%n* $o do "%$' $' 8ro.l ms +a& d .y $' 8 o8l and $' %r &on& rns6 T' m8'as%s m%*'$ &'an* on& $' &am8a%*n +ormally 1%&1s o++ and 8ar$% s ar o.l%* d $o announ& $' %r man%+ s$os6 Ju$ $' %na$$ n$%on s'o"n so +ar $o 8ol%&y %ssu s %s a $ ll%n* as8 &$ o+ 8r s n$ 8ol%$%&1%n* a$ a $%m "' n $' &oun$ry@s 8ro.l ms ar &ry%n* ou$ +or solu$%ons6 Cyn%&s "ould ar*u $' r %s no$'%n* n " a.ou$ $ransa&$%onal 8ol%$%&s or &'an*%n* all *%an& s6 Ju$ $' =u s$%on %s "' $' r $'%s %s &om8a$%.l "%$' $' "%d s8r ad y arn%n* +or &'an* %n $' &oun$ry +or "'%&' $' ;%d n& %s o; r"' lm%n*6 M an"'%l , $' assum8$%on $'a$ r &ru%$%n* H%n+lu n$%al@ &and%da$ s %s all $'a$ ma5or 8ar$% s n d $o do 'as . n &all d %n$o =u s$%on .y an o8%n%on 8oll &ondu&$ d .y $' :n$ rna$%onal A 8u.l%&an :ns$%$u$ 6 E' n r s8ond n$s %n $' )un5a. sam8l " r as1 d "'a$ "ould d $ rm%n $' &'o%& o+ &and%da$ $' y "%ll ;o$ +or, 40 8 r& n$ sa%d $' 8ar$y s$an& on %ssu s6 T'%s %nd%&a$ s $'a$ a s%*n%+%&an$ num. r o+ 8 o8l *%; 8r & d n& $o %ssu s o; r 8 rsonal%$% s6 Ano$' r 20 8 r& n$ nam d 8ar$y a++%l%a$%on as $' %r ma%n &ons%d ra$%on and only 11 8 r& n$ %d n$%+% d .%radar% as $' 8r%n&%8al +a&$or6 20 8 r& n$ " r und &%d d, "'%&' also su** s$s $'a$ %ssu s &ould . %m8or$an$ %n s'a8%n* ;o$ r &'o%& s6 :n ;ol;%n* $' %r &am8a%*n s$ra$ *% s, 8ol%$%&al l ad rs "ould . n +%$ +rom &ar +ully >am%n%n* $'%s sur; y@s +%nd%n*s6 For >am8l 2G 8 r& n$ o+ r s8ond n$s . l% ; )a1%s$an "as ' ad%n* %n $' "ron* d%r &$%on6 G0 8 r& n$ $'ou*'$ $' %r 8 rsonal &onom%& s%$ua$%on 'ad "ors n d %n $' 8as$ y ar6 E' n as1 d $o nam $' s%n*l mos$ 8r ss%n* 8ro.l m +a&%n* )a1%s$an 35 8 r& n$ m n$%on d %ssu s &on& rn%n* $' %r &onom%& " ll . %n* F %n+la$%on, un m8loym n$ and 8o" r s'or$a* s6 /a&1 o+ la" and ord r and &orru8$%on " r amon* $' ma%n &aus s %d n$%+% d +or )a1%s$an@s &onom%& 8ro.l ms6 T' &oun$ry@s +la%l%n* ' al$' and du&a$%on sys$ m +%*ur d amon* $' $o8 8u.l%& &on& rns6 S%*n%+%&an$ly 34 8 r& n$ o88os d s$a.l%s'%n* n " 8ro;%n& s6 T' sur; y also o++ r d %ns%*'$s %n$o 8u.l%& >8 &$a$%ons o+ 8ol%$%&al 8ar$% s6 G4 8 r& n$ "an$ d 8ar$% s $o 'old r *ular %n$ rnal l &$%ons6 22 8 r& n$ >8 &$ d 8ar$% s $o *%; $%&1 $s $o youn* &and%da$ s6 T' sur; y only &on+%rms "'a$ %s alr ady " ll 1no"n a.ou$ "'a$ $' 8u.l%& "an$s +rom %$s rul rs F . $$ r *o; rnan& and solu$%ons $o $' &oun$ry@s &onom%&, n r*y and s &ur%$y &r%s s $'a$ ar $a1%n* su&' a ' a;y $oll on &%$%I ns6 :$ %s $' s %ssu s $'a$ ma$$ r $o 8 o8l no$ unsu.s$an$%a$ d H&ons8%ra&% s@ or 8rom%s s +or n " adm%n%s$ra$%; un%$s .y $'os "'o 'a; +a%l d $o &om8 $ n$ly run >%s$%n* on s6 F%nally, &ry%n* "ol+ ; ry day d nud s $' *o; rnm n$ o+ &r d%.%l%$y and "%ll y% ld %$ no$'%n* on l &$%on day "' n %$ "%ll . 5ud* d on %$s 8 r+orman& , no$ %$s +an&%+ul narra$%; 6 T' "r%$ r %s s8 &%al ad;%s r $o $' Jan* Grou8LG o and a +orm r n;oy $o $' (S and $' (96 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad
#5 Tuesday, February 12, 2013 Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

&.th #eb/ .0&+.

Peace by piece
- s8%$ %$s d%8loma$%& 8a* an$ry $' $r%8ar$%$ summ%$ ' ld a$ C' =u rs las$ " 1 . $" n $' l ad rs o+ )a1%s$an, A+*'an%s$an and Jr%$a%n 'ardly .ro1 any n " *round6 T' 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$ %ssu d a+$ r $' m $%n* on F .ruary 374 &all d +or $al1s "%$' $' Tal%.an6 Ju$ $'%s d%d no$ o.s&ur $' +a&$ $'a$ no 8 a& 8ro& ss %s y $ %n 8la& or a*r m n$ on 'o" $o s$ar$ n *o$%a$%ons6 T'%s mad $' *oal s $ %n $' &ommun%=uK $o Ca&'% ; a 8 a& s $$l m n$ o; r $' n >$ s%> mon$'sD no$ 5us$ o; r am.%$%ous .u$ &om8l $ ly unr al%s$%&6 T' Tal%.an@s r a&$%on $o $' /ondon m $%n* $'r " $'%s %n$o s'ar8 r r l% +6 T' %r s8o1 sman Pa.%'ulla' Mu5a'%d d &lar d $'a$ $' summ%$ $oo1 no C8ra&$%&al s$ 8s $o +ul+%l $' 8r 7r =u%s%$ s +or n *o$%a$%onsD6 /%1 8r ;%ous *a$' r%n*s %$ d%d no$ 8rodu& an C n&oura*%n* ou$&om D +or an A+*'an solu$%on6 T' C' =u rs d &lara$%on d%d 'o" ; r a++%rm $' o8 n%n* o+ a Tal%.an o++%& %n -o'a6 Ju$ $'%s &'o d $' &all mad %n a 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$ on January 11 .y 8r s%d n$s Jara&1 0.ama and Bam%d 9arIa% dur%n* $' A+*'an l ad r@s ;%s%$ $o Eas'%n*$on6 E'a$ 'a88 n d . $" n $' Eas'%n*$on 8arl ys and $' /ondon m $%n* %s %ns$ru&$%; $o r &all +or %$ lays .ar $' d%++%&ul$% s %n ; n s $$%n* u8 an o++%& , 5us$ $' +%rs$ s$ 8 $o s$a.l%s' a lo&a$%on +or sus$a%n d 8 a& $al1s6 J '%nd $' s& n d%s&uss%ons $o +ormally o8 n su&' an o++%& 'a; . n *o%n* on %n$ rm%$$ n$ly +or o; r a y ar6 :n 20117 arly 2012 $' y %n;ol; d d%r &$ >&'an* s . $" n (S o++%&%als and Tal%.an %n$ rlo&u$ors, un$%l $' Tal%.an sus8 nd d $' d%alo*u %n Mar&' 20126 0n ;ar%ous o&&as%ons %n $'%s 8 r%od )r s%d n$ 9arIa% >8r ss d m%s*%;%n*s, ; n ou$r%*'$ o88os%$%on $o $' o++%& 6 T'%s . &am on o+ $' r asons "'y $' m.ryon%& Na$ar 8ro& ss . *an $o s$all6 :n $'%s .a&1dro8, and "%$' $' (S 1 n $o r ;%; $' Na$ar 8ro& ss, Am r%&an o++%&%als 8r ;a%l d on 9arIa% $o 8u.l%&ly announ& su88or$ +or $' -o'a o++%& dur%n* '%s Eas'%n*$on ;%s%$6 T'%s "as duly r +l &$ d %n $' 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$ and %n r mar1s a$ $' n "s &on+ r n& "%$' )r s%d n$ 0.ama6 Ju$ no soon r 'ad ' r $urn d $o 9a.ul $'a$ 9arIa% . *an s $$%n* $ rms +or '%s su88or$ +or $' o++%& 6 B d mand d a m morandum o+ und rs$and%n* "%$' $' Na$ar *o; rnm n$ and %ns%s$ d %$ r +l &$ s ; ral &ond%$%ons6 T'%s %n&lud d $' s$%8ula$%on $'a$ $' -o'a o++%& . us d only +or $al1s . $" n $' Tal%.an and '%s *o; rnm n$7a88o%n$ d B%*' ) a& Coun&%l (B)C) and no$ . $" n o$' rs %n&lud%n* ;ar%ous A+*'an 8ar$% s6 B ;%d n$ly + ar d . %n* s%d l%n d on& $'%s 8ro& ss *o$ und r"ay6 Na$ar d &l%n d $o 8ro;%d "r%$$ n assuran& s "'%l Am r%&an o++%&%als $r% d $o "al1 an %n&r as%n*ly %ns &ur 9arIa% .a&1 $o &omm%$m n$s ' mad %n Eas'%n*$on6 A r 8or$ %n $' Eas'%n*$on )os$ (F .ruary 3), d $a%l%n* $'%s d%sa*r m n$, d s&r%. d 'o" 9arIa% . &am $' C.%** s$ &aus o+ (S $ $'7*nas'%n*, and no$ +or $' +%rs$ $%m D Jy $' $%m $' summ%$ &on; n d a$ C' =u rs, 9arIa% "as r 8or$ dly 8 rsuad d $o *%; u8 '%s Mo( d mand and a88ro; $' Na$ar o++%& "%$'ou$ 8r 7&ond%$%ons6 Ju$ '%s su88or$ %n $' 5o%n$ s$a$ m n$ d%d no$ r +l &$ $' $ rms ' &on$%nu d $o 8r ss %n $' /ondon 8arl ys6 A&&ord%n* $o an au$'or%$a$%; a&&oun$, 9arIa% l%n1 d $' o8 n%n* o+ $' o++%& $o a 8r%or s$a$ m n$ +rom $' Tal%.an %$ ra$%n* $'a$ $' -o'a o++%& "ould >&lus%; ly . us d +or $al1s "%$' $' BC) and no o$' r 8ur8os 6 )a1%s$an% o++%&%als ur* d 9arIa% no$ $o 8la& 8r &ond%$%ons and %ns$ ad 8ro8os d a

s =u n& o+ s$ 8s, s$ar$%n* "%$' $' o++%&%al o8 n%n* o+ $' o++%& , +ollo" d .y r ;%;al o+ $al1s . $" n $' (S and $' Tal%.an, and $' n $al1s amon* A+*'ans %n&lud%n* m m. rs o+ $' B)C6 9arIa% "as no$ 8 rsuad d6 T'%s l +$ $' -o'a o++%& %ssu und &%d d6 (n& r$a%n$y 8r ;a%l d o; r "' $' r 8lann d ++or$s $o &on;%n& Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s %n$o %ssu%n* a s$a$ m n$ %nd%&a$%n* "%ll%n*n ss $o n *o$%a$ "%$' Call A+*'an 8ar$% sD "ould y% ld a 8os%$%; ou$&om 6 For $' )a1%s$an% s%d ano$' r +rus$ra$%n* n&oun$ r "as %n d%s&uss%ons o+ $' 8ro8os d S$ra$ *%& )ar$n rs'%8 A*r m n$ (S)A) . $" n :slama.ad and 9a.ul6 9arIa% l%n1 d $' &on&lus%on o+ $' S)A $o 8ro*r ss on 8 a& and r &on&%l%a$%on6 B%s s$an& "as $'a$ H8ar$n rs'%8@ s'ould +ollo" 8 a& 6 B $'us r +us d $o s %$ as a m ans $o .u%ld 8 a& 6 T'%s s m d $o 'al$ 8ro*r ss on $' %ssu , &on$rary $o und rs$and%n*s r a&' d %n $' las$ $r%la$ ral m $%n* %n ! " Qor1 %n S 8$ m. r 20126 T'%s "as no$ $' only %ssu on "'%&' 9arIa%@s s$an& "as l ss $'an ' l8+ul %n $' $al1s6 0n so7&all d $ra&1 :: d%s&uss%ons, "'%&' 'a; .rou*'$ d%++ r n$ A+*'an *rou8s %n&lud%n* au$'or%s d Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s $o* $' r F r & n$ly %n Fran& and arl% r %n Ja8an F 9arIa% assa%l d $' s and &as$ $' m as Cdan* rousD6 B r %$ ra$ d "'a$ ' and '%s s8o1 sm n 'a; . n 8u.l%&ly s$a$%n* F $'a$ $' mo; s a%m d $o C'%5a&1D no$ ad;an& $' 8 a& 8ro& ss and " r . %n* us d as a Cl ; rD a*a%ns$ '%s *o; rnm n$6 B%s o88os%$%on $o $' s %n+ormal H%n$ra7A+*'an@ 8arl ys $or8 do d 8lans +or a (!7 s8onsor d m $%n* %n As'*a.a$, "'%&' Tur1m n%s$an "as $o 'os$ la$ r $'%s mon$'6 Mor s%*n%+%&an$ly %$ und rs&or d 'o" 9arIa% "as 8la&%n* %m8 d%m n$s %n $' 8a$' o+ d%8loma$%& ++or$s $'a$ &ould l ad $o a 8 a& 8ro& ss, + ar+ul $' y "ould mar*%nal%s '%s *o; rnm n$6 For $' %r 8ar$, Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s 'a; &on$%nu d $o s$a$ $'a$ $' %r a$$ ndan& a$ su&' &on+ r n& s s'ould no$ . &ons$ru d as 8ar$%&%8a$%on %n n *o$%a$%ons6 :n $' )ar%s m $%n* +or >am8l $' y r %$ ra$ d $' %r r 5 &$%on o+ $al1s "%$' $' 9arIa% *o; rnm n$, &'ara&$ r%s%n* 9a.ul@s $ rms as $an$amoun$ $o Csurr nd r o+ $' Mu5a'%d nD6 Tal%.an l ad rs d%d 'o" ; r s%*nal "%ll%n*n ss $o $al1 $o all o$' r A+*'an 8ar$% s $o arr%; a$ a solu$%on6 E' $' r $'%s m%*'$ %n $%m %n&lud m m. rs o+ $' B)C, as %nd%;%duals no$ r 8r s n$a$%; s o+ $' 9a.ul *o; rnm n$, r ma%ns $o . s n6 T'%s %s no$ $' only &%r&l $'a$ n ds $o . s=uar d *o%n* +or"ard6 Amon* o$' r Hr =u%r m n$s@ +or $' Tal%.an o++%& $o o++%&%ally o8 n %s $' (S %ns%s$ n& $'a$ . +or $'%s $' Tal%.an %ssu a s$a$ m n$ d noun&%n* %n$ rna$%onal $ rror%sm6 Jy som a&&oun$s $'%s "as a*r d arly las$ y ar as 8ar$ o+ s ; ral &on+%d n& 7.u%ld%n* m asur s .o$' s%d s " r $o $a1 6 T' CJMs also %n&lud d a 8r%son r >&'an* F $' (S mo;%n* +%; Tal%.an d $a%n s +rom Guan$anamo $o Na$ar %n >&'an* +or Jo" J r*da'l, $' Am r%&an 8r%son r ' ld .y $' Tal%.an7al%*n d Ba==an% n $"or16 All $'%s "as und r n *o$%a$%on "' n $' $al1s .ro1 do"n o; r Tal%.an a&&usa$%ons $'a$ $' (S 'ad *on .a&1 on $' a*r d s =u n& o+ s$ 8s6 Am r%&an o++%&%als 'o" ; r d n% d $'a$ any $%m $a.l 'ad . n +%nal%s d6 T' =u s$%on o+ H"'o *o s +%rs$@ and 'o" $o s =u n& $' r =u%r d s$ 8s r ma%ns a 1 y 8ro.l m $'a$ 'as $o . addr ss d $o * $ s r%ous n *o$%a$%ons *o%n*6 T'%s 'as . n $' +o&us o+ &on$%nu%n* H$al1s a.ou$ $al1s@ a$ s ; ral l ; ls a%m d a$ r &on&%l%n* $' ;ary%n* 8r%or%$% s o+ d%++ r n$ s%d s6 T' Tal%.an@s &or d mand r ma%ns $' &om8l $ "%$'dra"al o+ +or %*n +or& s +rom A+*'an%s$an6 T'us $' %r ma%n +o&us %s $o s &ur Am r%&an assuran& s %n $'%s r *ard6 :n $' Tal%.an@s r s8ons $o $' /ondon summ%$, Pa.%'ulla' Mu5a'%d r n " d $' &all +or an nd $o o&&u8a$%on and r s8 &$ +or A+*'an%s$an@s so; r %*n$y6 E'a$ %s un&l ar %s "' $' r $' Tal%.an "ould s assuran& s on $'%s &oun$ as a 8r 7 r =u%s%$ +or 8 a& n *o$%a$%ons or ar o8 n $o $' 8oss%.%l%$y $'a$ su&' assuran& s

"ould m r* as an ou$&om o+ n *o$%a$%ons6 )r s%d n$ 0.ama@s an$%&%8a$ d announ& m n$ %n '%s S$a$ o+ $' (n%on addr ss $o a&& l ra$ $' 8a& o+ $roo8 "%$'dra"al $'%s y ar &ould &r a$ s8a& $'a$ m%*'$ . ' l8+ul %n +u$ur $al1s6 Ju$ d%r &$ (S7Tal%.an n*a* m n$ 'as $o +%rs$ r sum $o d $ rm%n $'a$6 :+ $' r "as a 8os%$%; as8 &$ $o $' /ondon m $%n* %$ "as $' ' ad"ay mad on modal%$% s +or an ul ma &on+ r n& $'a$ )a1%s$an and A+*'an%s$an 8lan $o 5o%n$ly &on; n %n 9a.ul %n arly Mar&'6 Bo" $'%s "%ll 8lay %n$o $' r &on&%l%a$%on 8ro& ss %s no$ y $ &l ar6 T' /ondon m $%n* s r; d as a r m%nd r $'a$ +%nd%n* a 8a$' $o $' n *o$%a$%n* $a.l r ma%ns an on rous $as16 G%; n $' 8r s n$ %m8ass and d &%s%ons $'a$ Eas'%n*$on and $' Tal%.an l ad rs'%8 'a; y $ $o $a1 , 8ro*r ss $o"ards a n *o$%a$ d 8 a& r ma%ns a mor d%s$an$ 8oss%.%l%$y $'an $' 'o8 >8r ss d .y $' C' =u rs s$a$ m n$6 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

#6 Saturday, Mar ! 09, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

14$' F .ruary, 20136

"he thistle and the drone

A1.ar A'm d@s n " .oo1 %s an %m8r ss%; and 8ro;o&a$%; "or1 o+ s&'olars'%86 Ja++l%n* a$ +%rs$, %$s $%$l HT' T'%s$l and $' -ron @, r 8r s n$s '%s .oo1@s ++or$ $o &oun$ r8os $' dron , as a sym.ol o+ Am r%&a@s H"ar on $ rror@, and $' $'%s$l , as a m $a8'or +or $' &a&$us7l%1 d +%an$ and $ou*' $r%.al so&% $% s &au*'$ u8 %n $'%s &on+l%&$6 T'%s s $s $' s$a* +or $' s$udy@s & n$ral $' m : $'a$ amon* %$s o$' r d l $ r%ous &ons =u n& s, Am r%&a@s 8os$ 4L11 &oun$ r$ rror%sm 8ol%&y 'as &om8ound d $' alr ady +ray%n* r la$%ons'%8 . $" n & n$ral *o; rnm n$s and $r%.al so&% $% s on $' %r 8 r%8' ry6 E%$' som o+ $' "orld@s mos$ %m8o; r%s' d and m.a$$l d $r%.al *rou8s . &om%n* $' $ar* $s o+ $' 21s$ & n$ury@s mos$ ad;an& d C1%ll $ &'nolo*yD, $'%s 'as l d $o dan* rous d%sru8$%on o+ +ra*%l so&% $% s +rom EaI%r%s$an $o A+*'an%s$an, Q m n and Somal%a6 T' H+ra*m n$s@ o+ $' s &ommun%$% s no" $'r a$ n $o s'oo$ o++ %n un8r d%&$a.l d%r &$%ons and +u l s&ala$%n* *lo.al ;%ol n& 6 T'%s %s )ro+ ssor A'm d@s $'%rd .oo1 %n a r mar1a.l $r%lo*y $'a$ >am%n s r la$%ons . $" n $' (S and $' Musl%m "orld6 T' 8r ;%ous "or1, HJourn y %n$o Am r%&a@, 8u.l%s' d $'r y ars a*o, $oo1 $' r ad r %n$o $' ' ar$ o+ Am r%&a and %$s Musl%m &ommun%$% s $o loo1 a$ $' %r o+$ n $rou.l d r la$%ons'%8 %n $' "a1 o+ 4L116 T'%s on dra"s on 40 &as s$ud% s +rom a&ross $' "orld $o dra" .road &on&lus%ons a.ou$ $r%.al so&% $% s and $' %m8a&$ $'a$ Am r%&a@s &oun$ r$ rror%sm s$ra$ *y 'as 'ad on $' m6 )ro+ ssor A'm d may no$ 8 r'a8s 'a; an$%&%8a$ d $'a$ $' 8u.l%&a$%on o+ '%s .oo1 "ould &o%n&%d "%$' $' "%d n%n* d .a$ %n Am r%&a a.ou$ $' l *al, $'%&al and

lon* r7$ rm %m8l%&a$%ons o+ r ly%n* on dron s $o "a* "ar .y assass%na$%on6 B%$' r$o &on+%n d $o a 'and+ul o+ 'uman r%*'$s *rou8s and l%. ral $'%n1 $an1s, $' d .a$ 'as >8and d %n r & n$ " 1s $o Con*r ss6 -ur%n* $' &on+%rma$%on ' ar%n*s o+ Jo'n Jr nnan, s ; ral s na$ors =u s$%on d $' C:A@s nom%na$ d d%r &$or a.ou$ $' s &r &y and l *al%$y o+ $' dron "ar, as " ll as $' .lo".a&1 +rom $'%s %n many &oun$r% s %n&lud%n* )a1%s$an6 T' l a1 o+ a (S 5us$%& d 8ar$m n$ m mo 5us$%+y%n* $' $ar* $ d 1%ll%n*s o+ $ rror%s$ sus8 &$s %n&lud%n* Am r%&an &%$%I ns .rou*'$ $' %ssu und r %n$ ns m d%a s8o$l%*'$6 :$ 8rom8$ d ; n s'ar8 r &omm n$ ls "' r 6 An d%$or%al %n $' F%nan&%al T%m s +or >am8l &on&lud d $'a$ $' (S C&anno$ d mand l *al%$y +rom o$' rs "' n %$ %s &a;al% r %n %$s . 'a;%our6D Mon$'s arl% r $' (! B%*' Comm%ss%on r +or Buman A%*'$s d &lar d $'a$ dron s$r%1 s amoun$ d $o >$ra 5ud%&%al 1%ll%n*s6 A1.ar A'm d@s .oo1 do sn@$ so mu&' as 5o%n $'%s d .a$ as 8o%n$ %$ %n ano$' r d%r &$%on .y +o&us%n* a$$ n$%on on $' '%s$ory and dynam%&s o+ $r%.al so&% $% s, as8 &$s $'a$ rar ly +%*ur %n * o78ol%$%&al ass ssm n$s6 Ju$ $'%s %sn@$ a .oo1 a.ou$ dron s6 T' au$'or@s ma%n &on& rn %s "%$' $' %r $ar* $: $r%.al so&% $% s $'a$ 'a; . &om m.ro%l d "%$' Am r%&a@s "ar6 )ro+ ssor A'm d, .y '%s o"n adm%ss%on, "an$s $o *%; a ;o%& C$o $' ;o%& l ss F $' su++ r%n* o+ ord%nary 8 o8l on $' 8 r%8' ry, "'o *o un' d d and un' ardD, &au*'$ . $" n dron a$$a&1s, su%&%d .om. rs and assaul$s .y $' & n$r @s m%l%$ary and la"7 n+or& m n$ a* n&% s6 T' au$'or, "'o no" $ a&' s a$ Eas'%n*$on@s Am r%&an (n%; rs%$y, dra"s on '%s lon* >8 r% n& as a &%;%l s r;an$ %n&lud%n* as 8ol%$%&al a* n$ %n EaI%r%s$an, and >8 r$%s as an an$'ro8olo*%s$ $o 8r s n$ "'a$ ' &alls $' EaI%r%s$an mod l6 T'%s r s$s on $' $'r 8%llars o+ l ad rs'%8 %n $r%.al so&% $% s F $r%.al ld rs, r l%*%ous &l r%&s, and $' 8ol%$%&al a* n$ as r 8r s n$a$%; o+ $' & n$ral *o; rnm n$6 B lam n$s %$s ;%r$ual .r a1do"n, a$$r%.u$%n* $'%s $o a 8ro& ss o+ d &ay and &om.%na$%on o+ (S a&$%ons and )a1%s$an@s %ll7$'ou*'$ m%l%$ary %n&urs%on %n$o EaI%r%s$an %n 2004, "'%&' ' says nd d %n d%sas$ r6 -ron a$$a&1s 'a; +ur$' r $'"ar$ d any 8ros8 &$s o+ 8 a& . $" n $' & n$ral *o; rnm n$ and $' $r%. s o+ EaI%r%s$an6 CT' EaI%r%s$an : 1n " l% s %n as' sD, ' "r%$ s, C"%$' dron s$r%1 s .r%n*%n* d a$', *lo.al m d%a d 8%&$%n* $'%s land as $' nurs ry o+ $ rror%s$s "'%l d ny%n* %$ a ;o%& , na$%onal l ad rs n ; r ;%s%$%n* or s m%n* $o &ar +or $' 8o8ula$%on@s 8l%*'$ and su%&%d .om. rs +rom $' &ommun%$y r l n$l ssly $ ar%n* %$ a8ar$6D :$ %s %n $'%s &'ao$%& and $rauma$%s d n;%ronm n$ $'a$ $' T 'r 17 7Tal%.an )a1%s$an (TT)) 'as . n a.l $o mo; %n and o8 ra$ 6 C:$s 8r%mary $ar* $ "as $' mod l %$s l+, and %$ sys$ ma$%&ally a$$a&1 d a&' and ; ry on o+ $' 8%llars6D )ro+ ssor A'm d . l% ; s $'a$ 'ad $' s 8%llars no$ . n d s$roy d, $' TT) "ould 'a; . n ++ &$%; ly &on$a%n d6 From $'%s ' &on&lud s $'a$ %n ord r $o n u$ral%s $' TT) and 8r ; n$ s%m%lar +u$ur ru8$%ons, $' mod l 'as $o . C8a%n+ully, slo"ly .u$ sur ly r &r a$ d "%$' su%$a.l ad5us$m n$s +or d mo&ra$%& n+ran&'%s m n$6D 0n m%*'$ $a1 %ssu "%$' '%s 8or$rayal o+ $' EaI%r%s$an mod l as nos$al*%& y arn%n* +or an %dyll%& and roman$%&%s d 8as$6 Also o8 n $o =u s$%on %s $' + as%.%l%$y o+ '%s su** s$%on $o r ;%; $' mod l %n ord r $o r s$or 8 a& 6 B%s analys%s s'o"s 'o" $' mod l@s $'r 8%llars o+ au$'or%$y 'a; all .u$ . n s" 8$ a"ay .y $' ;%ol n& and may' m o+ $' 8as$ d &ad 6 ! ; r$' l ss )ro+ ssor A'm d@s %ns%*'$s %n$o $r%.al '%s$ory, &us$oms, &od o+ &ondu&$ and $' 8r d%&am n$ o+ $r%. s . l a*u r d +rom all s%d s ma1 +or &om8 ll%n* r ad%n*6 So do $' 8%sod s and an &do$ s +rom &olon%al '%s$ory ' narra$ s %n +as&%na$%n* d $a%l %n $' .oo16 B d s&r%. s "%$' mu&' m8a$'y $' 8l%*'$ o+ $' $r%. s, and $' %r '%s$or%&al r s%s$an& $o a$$ m8$s .y $' & n$r $o s$a.l%s' %$s au$'or%$y F ++or$s ' &as$s as Cd sul$ory, o+$ n 'a8'aIard and %n;ar%a.ly r sul$%n* %n +a%lur D6 Eas'%n*$on, '

ar*u s, 'as +a%l d $o und rs$and no$ only $' na$ur o+ $r%.al so&% $y and %$s no$%on o+ 'onour and r ; n* , .u$ also $' '%s$or%&ally +rau*'$ r la$%ons'%8 . $" n $' & n$r and 8 r%8' ry, "'%&' %$s a&$%ons 'a; nd d u8 d%sman$l%n*6 !or, ' &la%ms, %s $' r a&1no"l d* m n$ .y Am r%&a $'a$ %$s &urr n$ 8ol%&% s ar only >a& r.a$%n* $'%s &on+l%&$6 T' assaul$s on $r%.al 8 o8l 'a; &aus d $rad%$%onal $r%.al and :slam%& . 'a;%our $o mu$a$ , as "%$n ss d %n $' .loody and +r nI% d su%&%d .om.%n*s o+ s&'ools, mos=u s and sym.ols o+ & n$ral au$'or%$y6 ,%ol n& 'as 8ro;o1 d ; r mor ;%ol n& 6 <; n "%$' Al7Na da d &%ma$ d, $' (S 'as dr%+$ d %n$o a *lo.al "ar on $r%.al so&% $% s on $' 8 r%8' ry o+ na$%ons6 )ro+ ssor A'm d@s 8r%n&%8al &on& rn %s "%$' 'o" $o r sol; $' &on+l%&$ . $" n & n$r and 8 r%8' ry and nd $' "ar on $ rror $o r 7 s$a.l%s' 8 a& and s$a.%l%$y6 For $'%n*s $o &'an* , ' ma1 s an %m8ass%on d &as +or Cmod rn so&% $y $o und rs$and $' &on$ >$ and '%s$ory o+ &on+l%&$s and no$ %m8os an ar$%+%&%al >$ rnal +ram or %d olo*y on $o $' mD6 And ' m8'as%s s $' n d $o "or1 $'rou*', and no$ a*a%ns$, $r%.al s$ru&$ur s $o r .u%ld $'os &ommun%$% s +or las$%n* 8 a& 6 )ro+ ssor A'm d@s .oo1 >am%n s $' m $anarra$%; o+ a H&las' o+ &%;%l%sa$%ons@ and H:slam%& >$r m%sm@ as >8lana$%ons +or $ rror%s$ ;%ol n& only $o r 5 &$ $' m6 T' s %d as, ' says, s'a8 d Am r%&a@s &oun$ r$ rror%sm 8ol%&y and nd d u8 &on+la$%n* $' $'r a$ +rom *rou8s $'a$ 'ad l%$$l $o do "%$' Al7Na da6 Mor $'an $ n y ars la$ r $' s m%s$a1 n no$%ons 'a; su&1 d $' (S %n$o C+%*'$%n* $' "ron* "ars, "%$' $' "ron* $a&$%&s6D E'%l &r%$%=u%n* (S 8ol%&y )ro+ ssor A'm d also r + rs a88ro;%n*ly $o l ssons $'a$ &an . l arn$ +rom Am r%&a@s o"n mana* m n$ o+ r la$%ons . $" n $' & n$r and $' 8 r%8' ry6 !o$"%$'s$and%n* $' 8as$ C* no&%dal $r a$m n$ o+ $' !a$%; :nd%ans and &ru l $r a$m n$ o+ A+r%&an Am r%&ansD, $' (S + d ral sys$ m 'as o; r $' y ars allo" d C%$s 8 o8l $o 8ar$%&%8a$ +ully and . n +%$ as =ual &%$%I ns "'%l ma%n$a%n%n*D, as $' &as s o+ Ba"a%% and )u r$o A%&o %llus$ra$ , C$' %r o"n lo&al &ul$ur and ' r%$a* 6D For $' au$'or C' al%n* a +ra&$ur d "orldD r s$s on +%nd%n* a "ay $o &o7 >%s$ "%$' $' $'%s$l "'%l a.andon%n* $' a88roa&' 8%$om%s d .y $' dron , "'%&' 8u$s %$ . yond la" and moral%$y, and %s a$ $' ; ry l as$ &oun$ r8rodu&$%; 6 E' $' r or no$ $' r ad r a*r s "%$' $'%s &om8l > .u$ >&%$%n* and s$%mula$%n* s$udy, %$s %m8or$an$ %ns%*'$s and %n+orma$%on ar sur $o . d%s&uss d +or a lon* $%m $o &om 6 A1.ar A'm d, T' T'%s$l and $' -ron , Bo" Am r%&a@s "ar on $ rror . &am a *lo.al "ar on $r%.al :slam, Eas'%n*$on, Jroo1%n*s, 20136 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad
#7 Saturday, Mar ! 09, 2013 Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

23$' F .ruary,20136

1nterim challenge
E%$' l &$%on r%n* %n +ull s"%n*, 8 o8l @s a$$ n$%on %s +o&us d on $' 8ol%$%&al

$rans%$%on $'a$ l% s a' ad6 Ju$ $' +a$ o+ $' &onomy %s as &ons =u n$%al +or $' &oun$ry as $' a88roa&'%n* l &$%on6 A 8r &ar%ous &onomy mar1 d .y "%d n%n* %n$ rnal and >$ rnal %m.alan& s 'as ' %*'$ n d $' r%s1 o+ a +%nan&%al &r%s%s ru8$%n* r%*'$ %n $' m%ddl o+ $' $rans%$%on and . +or a n " *o; rnm n$ assum s 8o" r6 T'%s ur* s $' n d +or r s8ons%.l &onom%& s$ "ards'%8 dur%n* $' .r% + $ nur o+ $' %n$ r%m *o; rnm n$6 Al$'ou*' $' &ar $a1 r *o; rnm n$@s 8r%n&%8al r s8ons%.%l%$y "%ll . $o su8 r;%s +r and +a%r l &$%ons, %$ "%ll also 'a; $o 1 8 a "a$&'+ul y on a d $ r%ora$%n* &onomy and $a1 n & ssary m asur s $o 8r ; n$ an &onom%& .r a1do"n6 T'%s s'ould no$ . m%s&ons$ru d as an ar*um n$ $o >$ nd $' l%+ o+ $' %n$ r%m adm%n%s$ra$%on6 T' 8ur8os ' r %s $o s$r ss $' n d $o mana* $' &onomy 8rud n$ly %n a 8 r%od "' r $' %m8or$an$ ('old%n* &r d%.l l &$%ons) and $' ur* n$ (a; r$%n* &onom%& &r%s%s) "%ll &om8 $ +or a$$ n$%on6 T' r ar &om8 ll%n* r asons +or $'%s6 ,%r$ually all ma&ro &onom%& %nd%&a$ors 8o%n$ $o s%*n%+%&an$ "ors n%n* o+ $' &onomy: lo" or +all%n* *ro"$', r%s%n* .ud* $ d +%&%$, '%*' %n+la$%on, d &l%n%n* r ; nu &oll &$%on, *ro"%n* loss s %n 8u.l%& s &$or n$ r8r%s s, r &ord *o; rnm n$ .orro"%n* +rom $' S$a$ Jan1 and &omm r&%al .an1s, 8lumm $%n* dom s$%& and +or %*n %n; s$m n$, and a d 8ly $rou.l d n r*y s &$or $'a$ &on$%nu s $o s$ra%n *o; rnm n$ r sour& s and %m8 d &onom%& a&$%;%$y6 )o" r s &$or su.s%d% s alon &os$ $' >&' =u r . $" n As150 .%ll%on and As300 .%ll%on a y ar6 :n $' 8as$ +%; y ars As165 $r%ll%on 'a; . n s8 n$ on $' s su.s%d% s, $' =u%;al n$ o+ O13 .%ll%on, nou*' $o +%nan& $' J'as'a -am 8ro5 &$ "%$' mon y $o s8ar 6 0n $o8 o+ $'%s, $' *o; rnm n$@s +%s&al 8ro+l%*a&y a' ad o+ l &$%ons 'as +ur$' r &om8ound d $' " a1 s$a$ o+ 8u.l%& +%nan& s6 :$ %s $' &oun$ry@s 8 r%lous >$ rnal 8os%$%on $'a$ &an . $' $r%** r +or a &r%s%s6 <>8or$s 'a; . n s$a*na$%n* and +or %*n d%r &$ %n; s$m n$ 'as sl%88 d $o an all $%m lo"6 :n $' +%rs$ s ; n mon$'s o+ $'%s +%s&al y ar F-: "as 5us$ O525 m%ll%on6 :m8or$s 'a; also . n d &l%n%n* and "'%l $' &urr n$ a&&oun$ *a8 %s no$ as lar* as las$ y ar@s and r m%$$an& s +rom o; rs as )a1%s$an%s r ma%n ro.us$ (around O13 .%ll%on las$ y ar), $'%s %s no$ nou*' +or $' &oun$ry $o m $ %$s >$ rnal +%nan&%n* r =u%r m n$s "' n +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s ar d 8l $%n*6 T' 8r s n$ l ; l o+ r s r; s ' ld .y $' S$a$ Jan1 %s around O261 .%ll%on, "'%&' &o; r a.ou$ $"o mon$'@s o+ %m8or$s6 T'%s "%ll dro8 .y ano$' r O400 m%ll%on $'%s " 1 "' n ano$' r 8aym n$ %s mad $o $' :n$ rna$%onal Mon $ary Fund (:MF)6 T'%s +%s&al y ar r s r; s 'a; s$ ad%ly rod d a$ around O500 m%ll%on a mon$'6 <>$ rnal %n+lo"s 'a; $a8 r d o++ "'%l r 8aym n$s 'a; 'ad $o . mad $o $' :MF on $' O11 .%ll%on loan &on$ra&$ d %n 20026 As $' r s r; &us'%on 'as . *un $o rod so 'as &on+%d n& 6 T'%s 'as 8u$ r%s%n* 8r ssur on $' .alan& o+ 8aym n$s and $' ru8 , "'os ;alu 'as sun1 $o a '%s$or%& lo" a*a%ns$ $' dollar6 E' n $' ru8 &ross d a 8sy&'olo*%&al .arr% r arl% r $'%s mon$' and $rad d a$ As100 $o a dollar, $'%s ran* alarm . lls6 E%$' mor r 8aym n$s du $o $' :MF, +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s &ould d"%ndl $o a l ; l $'a$ .ar ly &o; rs a mon$'@s %m8or$s .y $'%s +%s&al y ar@s nd6 J $" n no" and nd7Jun , )a1%s$an n ds $o 8ay O165 .%ll%on $o $' Fund and ano$' r O162 .%ll%on $o o$' r l nd rs6 A s r; s "%ll $' r +or +all mu&' . lo" O3 .%ll%on %n $' a.s n& o+ any +or %*n %n+lo"s6 )ro*ramm l nd%n* +rom o$' r mul$%la$ ral a* n&% s %s o++ $' $a.l , a.s n$ an :MF 8a&1a* 6 T' 8r s n$ r s r; l ; l %n&lud s a.ou$ O2 .%ll%on %n "'a$ ar &all d s"a8sL+or"ards6 :n 8la%n lan*ua* $'%s m ans $'a$ $o s'or u8 r s r; num. rs $' S$a$ Jan1 o+ )a1%s$an (SJ)) 'as .orro" d O2 .%ll%on +rom .an1s %n >&'an* +or ru8 s6 As s"a8 o8 ra$%ons ar o+$ n s'or$7$ rm F l ss $'an $'r mon$'s F %+ .an1s d &%d no$ $o roll $' m o; r, O2 .%ll%on o+ r s r; s &ould d%sa88 ar =u%$ =u%&1ly6 Ano$' r >8 d% n$ m asur $' & n$ral .an1 'as r sor$ d $o %s $o s ll a.ou$ O300

m%ll%on a mon$' %n$o $' mar1 $ $'%s +%s&al y ar6 Jy &on$%nu%n* $o s ll $o Hd + nd@ $' &urr n&y, $' SJ) 'as . n runn%n* do"n r s r; s6 :+ %$ 8 rs%s$s "%$' $'%s 8ol%&y, r s r; s "ould +all +ur$' r6 T' r ar $"o as8 &$s $o $' &oun$ry@s " a1 n%n* 8os%$%on on $' >$ rnal a&&oun$6 0n , dra"do"ns o+ r s r; s &ould 8rodu& a &as' +lo" &r%s%s, "' n $' &oun$ry "%ll s%m8ly no$ 'a; nou*' +or %*n >&'an* $o m $ %$s >$ rnal +%nan&%n* *a86 A .alan& o+ 8aym n$s &r%s%s "ould $' n +ollo"6 Ju$ . +or $'%s 'a88 ns a s &ond, mor l%1 ly s& nar%o m%*'$ ma$ r%al%s 6 As r s r; s &on$%nu $o d"%ndl , $'%s &ould s8ar1 8an%& %n $' mar1 $ s8 &%ally %n an$%&%8a$%on o+ $' +a&$ $'a$ %n $' n >$ +%s&al y ar d .$ s r;%& 8aym n$s o+ ano$' r O362 .%ll%on 'a; $o . mad $o $' :MF and o$' r %n$ rna$%onal &r d%$ors6 Con+%d n& &ould s$ar$ ;a8ora$%n* "' n $' mar1 $ 8 r& %; s $'a$ $' &oun$ry "on@$ . a.l $o s r;%& %$s +or %*n o.l%*a$%ons6 E' n 8an%& s $s %n 8 o8l s$ar$ &on; r$%n* ru8 s %n$o dollars as a ' d* a*a%ns$ r%s16 T'%s 8r ssur &an 8rom8$ $' SJ) $o run do"n r s r; s ; ry =u%&1ly6 And %+ $' & n$ral .an1 do s no$ us %$s r s r; s, $' ru8 @s ;alu 8lun* s6 T'%s %n $urn "%ll +u l ano$' r round o+ %n+la$%on, 8rodu& a s'ar8 r%s %n %m8or$ &os$s +or +u l and o+ &ours a**ra;a$ $' 8ro.l m o+ a runa"ay +%s&al d +%&%$6 T'%s %s no$ an un+am%l%ar s& nar%o6 :$ r s m.l s $' $ra5 &$ory o+ d ; lo8m n$s $'a$ &ulm%na$ d %n $' 2002704 .alan& o+ 8aym n$s &r%s%s, "'%&' "as only r sol; d .y m r* n&y +%nan&%n* +rom $' :MF6 T' $ nuous s$a$ o+ 8u.l%& +%nan& s $oday m ans $'a$ $' &oun$ry 'as l%$$l r s%l% n& $o "%$'s$and an &onom%& s'o&16 :n a +rau*'$ &onom%& and s &ur%$y s%$ua$%on any n *a$%; 8ol%$%&al d ; lo8m n$ &an $%8 $' &onomy o; r F a8ar$ $'a$ %s +rom 8an%& o; r lo" r s r; s6 All o+ $'%s &r a$ s $' %m8 ra$%; $o s1%l+ully mana* $' &onomy %n a 8ol%$%&ally &'all n*%n* and d%++%&ul$ n;%ronm n$6 T' %n$ r%m adm%n%s$ra$%on may %n +a&$ 'a; $o $a1 %m8or$an$ d &%s%ons F %n &onsul$a$%on "%$' ma5or 8ol%$%&al 8ar$% s F $o 8r ; n$ $' &onomy +rom *o%n* o++ $' &l%++6 :+ 8ol%$%&al &ons nsus &an . .u%l$, $' %n$ r%m *o; rnm n$ &an u$%l%s $' $%m a;a%la.l $o %$ $o $a1 &onom%& m asur s $'a$ m%*'$ . 8ol%$%&ally d%++%&ul$ +or $' %n&om%n* *o; rnm n$ $o $a1 a$ $' ou$s $ o+ %$s $ rm6 Su&' a&$%ons "ould also ' l8 $' &oun$ry $rans%$%on %n$o a n " Fund 8ro*ramm , "'%&' %s una;o%da.l . &aus "%$'ou$ su.s$an$%al %n+lo"s $' &oun$ry "ould . 8us' d $o"ards d +aul$ on %$s >$ rnal o.l%*a$%ons6 T' r ar a num. r o+ +%s&al, mon $ary and n r*y s &$or 8ol%&y a&$%ons $'a$ a &ar $a1 r *o; rnm n$ &ould $a1 a+$ r s &ur%n* a88ro;al o+ $' ma%n 8ol%$%&al s$a1 'old rs6 T'%s "ould ' l8 a;o%d a 8 r+ &$ s$orm $'a$ %s .u%ld%n* u8, s$a.%l%s $' &onomy and lay $' .as%s +or an ; n$ual :MF 8ro*ramm 6 Som dom s$%& r sour& mo.%l%sa$%on m asur s "ould . >&lud d +rom $' 8ur;% " o+ an %n$ r%m *o; rnm n$, as $' y r =u%r l *%sla$%on6 T'%s %n&lud s n " $a>a$%on6 Ju$ $a> r ; nu &ould . ra%s d %n o$' r "ays .y > &u$%; a&$%on6 For >am8l .y r mo;%n* I ro7 ra$ d &on& ss%ons on sal s $a> +or a num. r o+ s &$ors and l%m%na$%n* > m8$%ons *ran$ d und r s$a$u$ory r *ula$%on ord rs (SA0s) on %n&om $a>, "%$''old%n* $a> ra$ s and sal s $a>6 :n $' 8o" r s &$or $' %n$ r%m adm%n%s$ra$%on &ould %n%$%a$ a&$%on $o 8'as ou$ $' un$ar* $ d $ar%++ d%++ r n$%al su.s%dy, "'%&' ' l8s $' r%&' mor $'an $' 8oor, &os$s $' &onomy $' =u%;al n$ o+ 265 8 r& n$ o+ G-) a y ar and %s a ma5or sour& o+ $' +%s&al d +%&%$6 T' $rou.l s o+ $' 8o" r s &$or alon ar nou*' $o s%n1 $' &onomy6 :rr s8 &$%; o+ an :MF 8ro*ramm , $' s ar som o+ $' ur* n$ a&$%ons $' &oun$ry "ould n d $o $a1 $o 8r ; n$ an &onom%& s$orm $'a$ may no$ "a%$ +or a n " *o; rnm n$ $o . %n 8la& $o "r a1 'a;o&6

T' &ar $a1 r *o; rnm n$ "%ll $' r +or n d $o $a1 &ar o+ mor $'an an l &$%on6 :$ may 'a; $o a&$ $o sa; $' &oun$ry +rom an &onom%& m l$do"n6 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

#8 Saturday, Mar ! 09, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

05$' Mar&',20136

Pause in the peace process

T' slo"%n* do"n o+ $' )a1%s$an7:nd%a normal%sa$%on 8ro& ss 'as *on unno$%& d a$ a $%m "' n 8u.l%& a$$ n$%on %n $' &oun$ry %s und rs$anda.ly +o&us d on 8r ss%n* %n$ rnal %ssu s and $' u8&om%n* l &$%ons6 <; n $'ou*' $' .%la$ ral d%alo*u %s no$ sus8 nd d, a no$%& a.l &ool%n* %n r la$%ons 'as . n ;%d n$ %n $' las$ &ou8l o+ mon$'s6 T'%s r %n+or& s $' s$ar$7s$um.l 8a$$ rn o+ d%8loma$%& n*a* m n$ $'a$ 'as lon* &'ara&$ r%s d $' r la$%ons'%86 A &om.%na$%on o+ +a&$ors 'as &on$r%.u$ d $o sla&1 n%n* %n $' 8a& o+ normal%sa$%on6 T' y %n&lud s$ 8s $a1 n .y :nd%a %n $' "a1 o+ r & n$ %n&%d n$s a&ross $' /%n o+ Con$rol (/oC) %n 9as'm%r, ons $ o+ $' l &$%on s ason %n )a1%s$an and $' &ons =u n$ "a%$7and7s s$an& ado8$ d .y $' :nd%an *o; rnm n$, "'%&' %s also und r moun$%n* 8ol%$%&al 8r ssur a' ad o+ %$s o"n l &$%ons6 T' H8aus @ %n d%8loma$%& n*a* m n$ . $" n $' $"o &oun$r% s %s $'us $' ou$&om o+ s ; ral +a&$ors6 Ju$ $' 8r%n&%8al r ason %s $' "ay :nd%a r s8ond d $o $' .ord r &las' s %n January6 T' +lar 7u8 o+ $ ns%ons sa" $' usual >&'an* o+ d%8loma$%& d mar&' s and a&&usa$%ons . $" n $' $"o &oun$r% s6 Mu&' o+ $' 'a"1%s' 8u.l%& r' $or%& &am +rom :nd%a@s m%l%$ary and 8ol%$%&al l ad rs'%8 ra$' r $'an $' %r )a1%s$an% &oun$ r8ar$s6 S%m%larly $' :nd%an m d%a@s o+$ n +r nI% d &o; ra* o+ .ord r 'os$%l%$% s &on$ras$ d s'ar8ly "%$' $' )a1%s$an% m d%a@s mu$ d r s8ons 6 - l'% r 5 &$ d )a1%s$an@s o++ r +or $al1s a$ $' +or %*n m%n%s$ r l ; l $o r sol; %ssu s und rly%n* $' /oC s$and7o++6 Mor s%*n%+%&an$ly )r%m M%n%s$ r Manmo'an S%n*' d &lar d on January 14 $'a$ %$ "ould no lon* r . C.us%n ss as usualD "%$' :slama.ad, and ' &%$ d $' . ' ad%n* o+ an :nd%an sold% r F ; ' m n$ly d n% d .y )a1%s$an F as $' ra$%onal 6 0$' r :nd%an l ad rs &'o d $'%s l%n 6 - l'% $' n $oo1 a num. r o+ s$ 8s $o ma1 *ood on $' s d &lara$%ons6 :$ &an& ll d a m $%n* on $' Tul.ul !a;%*a$%on )ro5 &$LEullar Jarra* . $" n $' "a$ r s &r $ar% s o+ $' $"o &oun$r% s $'a$ "as s&' dul d +or $' las$ " 1 o+ January6 :nd%an o++%&%als a$$r%.u$ d $'%s $o Cs&' dul%n* %ssu sD .u$ %$ "as a88ar n$ $'a$ $' r al r ason "as d%++ r n$6 0$' r a&$%ons +ollo" d6 :nd%a sus8 nd d $' ;%sa l%. ral%sa$%on a*r m n$ s%*n d las$ S 8$ m. r . $" n $' $"o &oun$r% s and r +us d $o s $ any n " da$ +or %$s

%m8l m n$a$%on6 Cul$ural ; n$s %n;ol;%n* )a1%s$an% ar$%s$s %n - l'% " r &all d o++ "'%l :nd%a@s s8or$s au$'or%$% s s n$ .a&1 )a1%s$an% 'o&1 y 8lay rs &%$%n* C >$raord%nary &%r&ums$an& sD6 ,%sas " r also d &l%n d $o )a1%s$an% 8ar$%&%8an$s o+ Tra&1 :: d%s&uss%ons du $o $a1 8la& %n - l'% %n F .ruary and Mar&'6 All o+ $'%s s r; d $o s%*nal "'a$ :nd%a@s For %*n M%n%s$ r Salman 9'urs'%d announ& d a$ $' 8 a1 o+ $' /oC $ ns%ons F $'a$ n*a* m n$ "%$' )a1%s$an "ould . C%m8a&$ dD ; n %+ $' r "ould . no C$o$al +r I D on d%8loma$%& %n$ ra&$%ons6 E'%l $rad and $ra; l a&ross $' /oC, 'al$ d .y :nd%a on January 10 "as la$ r r ;%; d, $' &ool%n* %n r la$%ons "as 8 r& 8$%.l 6 Mos$ s%*n%+%&an$ly $' $'%rd round o+ $' &om8os%$ d%alo*u s ms $o 'a; s$all d6 !o da$ s " r s $ +or $' s r% s o+ m $%n*s on $' %*'$ 8o%n$ a* nda $'a$ &ons$%$u$ s $' d%alo*u 8ro& ss6 0nly on on o+ $' s %ssu s "as a m $%n* &on; n d, and $'a$ $oo . +or $' /oC s$and7o++6 T' &omm r& s &r $ar% s m $ %n :slama.ad on S 8$ m. r 20721, 2012 $o o8 n $' $'%rd round o+ $al1s6 0n o$' r %ssu s F S%r Cr 1, S%a&' n, &oun$ r$ rror%sm, +r% ndly >&'an* s and 'uman%$ar%an a++a%rs, m $%n*s 'a; no$ . n s&' dul d6 A&&ord%n* $o $' 8a$$ rn s$a.l%s' d .y $' 8r ;%ous $"o rounds, $al1s ar du . $" n no" and Jun LJuly on $' s %ssu s as " ll as 9as'm%r and 8 a& and s &ur%$y, "'%&' %s d%s&uss d a$ $' +or %*n s &r $ary l ; l6 T' $'%rd round %s su88os d $o &on&lud "%$' a m $%n* o+ +or %*n m%n%s$ rs $o r ;% " $' 8ro*r ss mad 6 T' +a&$ $'a$ +%; mon$'s a+$ r $' &omm r& s &r $ar% s m $, da$ s 'a; no$ . n s $ on $' o$' r s *m n$s o+ $' d%alo*u %nd%&a$ s $'a$ normal%sa$%on ++or$s ar a$ a s$ands$%ll6 T' +or %*n m%n%s$ry r & n$ly &on; y d $o $' :nd%an n;oy %n :slama.ad $'a$ $' r "as a *ro"%n* 8 r& 8$%on $'a$ $' 8 a& 8ro& ss "as slo"%n* do"n and $'%s ur* d +%nal%sa$%on o+ da$ s +or $' $'%rd round6 T' r s8ons +rom - l'% "as $'a$ $'%s "ould no" 'a; $o "a%$ $%ll $' nd o+ 8arl%am n$@s .ud* $ s ss%on, "'%&' m ans May6 M an"'%l , )a1%s$an $oo d lay d &on+ rr%n* $' +ormal s$a$us o+ Mos$ Fa;our d !a$%on $o :nd%a6 For o; r a y ar :slama.ad 'ad %nd%&a$ d %$ "ould *ran$ :nd%a MF! s$a$us .y $' nd o+ 2012 on& %$s &on& rns o; r :nd%a@s non7$ar%++ .arr% rs (!TJs) " r addr ss d and dom s$%& &ons nsus .u%l$ $o su88or$ $'%s s$ 86 :n S 8$ m. r 2012 $'r M morandums o+ (nd rs$and%n* " r s%*n d .y $' &omm r& s &r $ar% s, "'%&' sou*'$ $o m $ som o+ :slama.ad@s &on& rns on :nd%a@s r s$r%&$%; $rad 8ra&$%& s6 Ju$ as $' )a1%s$an% s%d 8o%n$ d ou$ %n S 8$ m. r $' r " r o$' r !TJs $'a$ also n d d $o . r mo; d .y :nd%a6 T' y %n&lud d .o$$l n &1s %n &us$oms &l aran& and o$' r +ormal and %n+ormal 'urdl s $'a$ 8r ; n$ )a1%s$an% 8rodu&$s +rom n$ r%n* $' :nd%an mar1 $6 /a&1 o+ ad =ua$ 8r 8ara$%on .y $' *o; rnm n$ on MF! &r a$ d +ur$' r d%++%&ul$y, "'%&' $' n . &am $' 1 y r ason +or d lay on mo;%n* +or"ard6 :n a &a.%n $ m $%n* %n January, )r%m M%n%s$ r Aa5a ) r;a%I As'ra+ %s r 8or$ d $o 'a; as1 d "'y $' MF! d &%s%on 'ad no$ y $ . n %m8l m n$ d6 B "as $old $'a$ $'r 1 y s$a1 'old rs F a*r%&ul$ur , $ >$%l and o$' r %ndus$ry *rou8s F 'ad s r%ous &on& rns and r s r;a$%ons on 8r ss%n* a' ad . &aus :nd%a@s mor r s$r%&$%; %m8or$ r *%m +a%l d $o 8ro;%d $' m a l ; l $rad r *%m 6 :$ "as also 8o%n$ d ou$ $'a$ un+a%r &om8 $%$%on "ould und rm%n all $' s s &$ors6 :n a su.s =u n$ m $%n* a$ $' +or %*n m%n%s$ry, r 8r s n$a$%; s +rom $' &on& rn d m%n%s$r% s r %$ ra$ d $'a$ $' s $'r s$a1 'old rs 'ad no$ . n &onsul$ d6 T' &omm r& m%n%s$ry 'ad ;%d n$ly s $ $' - & m. r 2012 d adl%n +or MF! %m8l m n$a$%on .as d on 8ol%$%&al ra$' r $'an &onom%& &ons%d ra$%ons6 :nd%a@s ' a;y su.s%d% s $o %$s a*r%&ul$ural s &$or loom d lar* %n $'%s d%s&uss%on and $' %m8l%&a$%ons o+ $'%s +or )a1%s$an@s &onomy %+ $' *o; rnm n$ " n$ a' ad "%$'ou$ ad =ua$ sa+ *uards and $' r =u%r d &omm%$m n$s +rom - l'%6 E%$' l &$%ons loom%n*, $' *o; rnm n$ "as no$ *o%n* $o r%s1 al% na$%n* 1 y

&onom%& s &$ors or 8ro;o1 8ol%$%&al &on$ro; rsy .y 8r ss%n* a' ad on $'%s +ron$6 S8o1 sm n o+ $' s lo..% s no$ only . &am ;o&al a.ou$ $' %r &on& rns .u$ also s$ar$ d ma1%n* a 8u.l%& &as %n $' m d%a +or "'y $' %r a88r ' ns%ons n d d $o . addr ss d 8r%or $o +%nal%s%n* $' MF! arran* m n$6 As :nd%a@s ma%n 8r%or%$y %n $' .%la$ ral d%alo*u %s on 8romo$%n* $rad and &onom%& $% s, - l'% may 'a; s n :slama.ad@s %na.%l%$y $o 8r ss a' ad on MF! as ano$' r r ason no$ $o mo; on o$' r ar as o+ $' d%alo*u 6 0$' r $'an $ rror%sm, $' o$' r %ssu s on $' a* nda ar o+ *r a$ r %n$ r s$ $o )a1%s$an ra$' r $'an :nd%a6 T'%s also >8la%ns "'y all $' &on$ n$%ous %ssu s r ma%n d adlo&1 d6 T' ons $ o+ $' l &$%on s ason %n )a1%s$an may . an add%$%onal r ason . '%nd - l'%@s H*o7slo"@ 8os$ur 6 E'%l l &$%ons %n :nd%a ar no$ du un$%l 2014, $' 8ol%$%&al s& n $' r %s also ' a$%n* u8 "%$' $' o88os%$%on J'ara$%ya Jana$a )ar$y (JJ)) alr ady %n a**r ss%; &am8a%*n mod 6 <l &$oral 8ol%$%&s %n .o$' &oun$r% s "%ll l%1 ly slo"do"n $' mom n$um o+ $' 8as$ $"o y ars and l%m%$ $' &'an& s +or s%*n%+%&an$ 8ro*r ss %n $' mon$'s a' ad6 <; n so .o$' &oun$r% s 'a; a mu$ual %n$ r s$ %n 1 8%n* normal%sa$%on on $ra&1, 'o" ; r slo" and %n&r m n$al $'%s m%*'$ . 6 For )a1%s$an %$ %s %m8or$an$ $o &on$%nu "%$' ++or$s $o s$a.%l%s r la$%ons "%$' :nd%a6 To 8ursu $'a$ o.5 &$%; :slama.ad also 'as $o &ons%d r "'a$ %s $' . s$ d%8loma$%& s$ra$ *y $o +ollo" $'a$ y% lds r sul$s F no$ 5us$ mor 8ro& ss F on %ssu s o+ 8r%or%$y &on& rn +or )a1%s$an6 T'%s, 'o" ; r, "%ll no" . a $as1 +or $' n >$ *o; rnm n$ $o und r$a1 6 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad
#9 Tuesday, Mar ! 12, 2013 Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

12$' Mar&', 20136

State o) denial
T' r s m $o . $"o &on+l%&$%n* ;% "s a.ou$ $' s$a$ o+ $' &onomy6 T' +%rs$ s'ar d .y mos$ %nd 8 nd n$ &onom%s$s and analys$s %s $'a$ "ors n%n* +%s&al and .alan& o+ 8aym n$s d +%&%$s "arran$ ur* n$ &orr &$%; a&$%on o$' r"%s $' &oun$ry "%ll ' ad %n s&a8a.ly %n$o an &onom%& &r%s%s6 T' s &ond ;% " ' ld ma%nly .y $' *o; rnm n$@s &onom%& mana* rs %s $'a$ $' r %s no n ar $ rm r%s1 $o $' &onomy or loom%n* &r%s%s and $' y &an &on$%nu "%$' .us%n ss as usual6 T'%s ' l8s $o >8la%n "'y %n %$s las$ days %n 8o" r, $' *o; rnm n$ 'as *on on a 8r 7 l &$%on s8 nd%n* .%n* , "'%&' "%ll l a; 8u.l%& +%nan& s %n &om8l $ s'am.l s6 Sal m Mand;%"alla s$ar$ d '%s s'or$ s$%n$ as +%nan& m%n%s$ r .y ma1%n* $' as$on%s'%n* &la%m $'a$ $' &oun$ry %s C%n a &om+or$a.l 8la& D and $' r %s no .alan& o+ 8aym n$s 8ro.l m F $'%s, a$ a $%m "' n )a1%s$an %s $ $ r%n* on $' d* o+ su&' a &r%s%s6 :+ $' m%n%s$ r 'ad &ar d $o r ad $' .ud* $ s$ra$ *y 8a8 r $'a$ ' 8r s n$ d $o $' &a.%n $ las$ " 1 ' "ould 'a; no$ 'a; . n so &om8la& n$6 T'a$ do&um n$ s$a$ d s$ar1ly $'a$ C$' +undam n$al s'or$7$ rm r%s1D $o )a1%s$an@s

+ra*%l &onomy C%s sus$a%na.%l%$y o+ +or %*n >&'an* r s r; sD6 Mand;%"alla@s &la%m a$ a su.s =u n$ 8r ss &on+ r n& "as ; n mor d%s%n* nuous6 B d &lar d $'a$ '%s *o; rnm n$ "as l a;%n* $' &onomy %n C*ood s'a8 D6 T' s s$a$ m n$s &'o d arl% r ass r$%ons .y $' Go; rnor o+ $' S$a$ Jan1, Qas n An"ar, $'a$ )a1%s$an +a& d no &r%s%s o+ +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s $'a$ n & ss%$a$ d $urn%n* $o $' :MF +or +%nan&%n*6 B also sa%d, "%$'ou$ la.ora$%n*, $'a$ $' r " r many s$ra$ *% s )a1%s$an &ould 8ursu $'a$ d%d no$ r =u%r $' Fund@s ' l86 T' *o; rnor and +%nan& m%n%s$ r 'a; .o$' &'os n $o do"n8lay $' $'r a$ 8os d $o +%nan&%al s$a.%l%$y .y $' &oun$ry@s &r%$%&al .alan& o+ 8aym n$s s%$ua$%on +or "'%&' $' ;%d n& %s o; r"' lm%n*6 Jo$' %ns%s$ )a1%s$an 'as nou*' +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s $o m $ %$s >$ rnal d .$ o.l%*a$%ons so $' r %s l%$$l r ason $o "orry, a$ l as$ $%ll $' nd o+ $'%s +%s&al y ar6 :$ s ms $o s&a8 .o$' $' *o; rnor and $' m%n%s$ r $'a$ a &r%s%s do sn@$ "a%$ $o ru8$ "' n +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s +all $o I ro6 :$ &an 'a88 n "' n $' r s r; l ; l d%8s so lo" as $o s8ar1 8an%& %n $' mar1 $ and s nd &on+%d n& 8lumm $%n*6 E' n 8an%& s8r ads 8 o8l s$ar$ .uy%n* dollars and s ll%n* ru8 s6 )r ssur moun$s on $' S$a$ Jan1 $o =u%&1ly run do"n r s r; s .y us%n* $' m $o d + nd $' &urr n&y6 T' %n s&a8a.l d%l mma +or $' & n$ral .an1 %n $'%s s%$ua$%on %s $'a$ %+ r s r; s ar no$ us d, $' ru8 @s ;alu r%s1s *o%n* %n$o a do"n"ard s8%ral6 T'%s %s no$ a 'y8o$' $%&al s& nar%o6 :$ un+old d no$ lon* a*o %n $' 2002704 .alan& o+ 8aym n$s &r%s%s6 :n +a&$ a$ s ; ral 8o%n$s %n $' 1440s )a1%s$an "as una.l $o m $ %$s >$ rnal +%nan&%n* r =u%r m n$s and r 8 a$ dly sou*'$ :MF ' l8 $o a; r$ >$ rnal d .$ d +aul$6 :s $' +%nan& m%n%s$ r una"ar o+ $'%s '%s$ory "' n ' 8ro&la%ms )a1%s$an 'as n ; r . n %n a s%$ua$%on "' r %$ &ould 'a; d +aul$ d on %$s >$ rnal o.l%*a$%ons? T' +a&$s ar &l ar a.ou$ $' 8r s n$ 8r &ar%ous s%$ua$%on6 T' &oun$ry@s +or %*n >&'an* r s r; s 'a; s$ ad%ly rod d6 /as$ " 1 r s r; s ' ld .y $' S$a$ Jan1 + ll $o O G62 .%ll%on6 T'%s o++ rs no assuran& $'a$ $' &oun$ry &an a;o%d a .alan& o+ 8aym n$s &r%s%s "' n &a8%$al %n+lo"s 'a; dr% d u8, +or %*n d%r &$ %n; s$m n$ 'as 8lun* d $o $' lo" s$ ; r l ; l and d .$ 8aym n$s loom6 Jy Jun r s r; s "%ll d"%ndl $o und r O3 .%ll%on as mor r 8aym n$s ar mad on >$ rnal l%a.%l%$% s6 :n $' n >$ +%s&al y ar O362 .%ll%on %n d .$ s r;%& 8aym n$s "%ll . du $o $' :MF and o$' r &r d%$ors .y "'%&' $%m r s r; s "ould 'a; d%88 d . lo" O3 .%ll%on and "%$' $' $rad *a8 also n d%n* $o . +%nan& d6 Con+%d n& &ould ;an%s' =u%$ =u%&1ly "' n $' mar1 $ 8 r& %; s $'a$ $' &oun$ry@s +%nan&%al r =u%r m n$s +ar >& d %$s +or %*n >&'an* r sour& s6 !o on &an a&&ura$ ly 8r d%&$ "' n su&' an %n+l &$%on 8o%n$ &ould . r a&' d6 Ju$ no r s8ons%.l *o; rnm n$ "ould "an$ $o "a%$ +or $'a$ $o +%rs$ 'a88 n and $' n r s8ond $o a runa"ay &r%s%s +rom "'%&' r s&u%n* $' &onomy "ould . >& d%n*ly d%++%&ul$6 E%l+ully l $$%n* a &r%s%s o&&ur so lon* as %$ %s no$ on %$s 8ol%$%&al "a$&' > m8l%+% s &onom%& m%smana* m n$ a$ %$s "ors$6 T' +%nan& m%n%s$ r also s ms $o $'%n1 $'a$ %n $' n >$ $'r mon$'s F or un$%l l &$%on $%m F r s r; s &an . s'or d u8 and 8r ssur on $' >&'an* ra$ m%$%*a$ d .y %n&r as%n* o; rs as )a1%s$an%s@ r m%$$an& s +rom $' 8r s n$ O13 .%ll%on (annually) $o O20 .%ll%on6 B . l% ; s $'%s &an . don .y >$ nd%n* $o mon y &'an* rs and >&'an* &om8an% s $' r .a$ *%; n $o .an1s und r $' )a1%s$an A m%$$an& s :n%$%a$%; 6 A8ar$ +rom $' + as%.%l%$y o+ a&'% ;%n* $'%s %n su&' a s'or$ $%m +ram , $' m asur &ould . o8 n $o a.us +or mon y laund r%n*, and >8os $' &oun$ry $o *r a$ r %n$ rna$%onal s&ru$%ny6 Mor o; r $'%s Jand7A%d, .uy7ano$' r7 mon$' a88roa&' "%ll do no$'%n* $o addr ss $' s$ru&$ural 8ro.l m $'a$ l% s a$ $' ' ar$ o+ r%s%n* >$ rnal %m.alan& s6 To &om8ound an >8los%; .ud* $ary s%$ua$%on, $' *o; rnm n$ 'as also *on on a no7'olds7.arr d s8 nd%n* s8r %n %$s las$ days %n 8o" r6 T'%s %s r +l &$ d %n a num. r o+ +%s&ally %rr s8ons%.l d &%s%ons $a1 n %n r & n$ " 1s, mos$ly .y $'

&a.%n $@s <&onom%& Coord%na$%on Comm%$$ , "'%&' m $ +our $%m s %n 5us$ o; r a +or$n%*'$ F un8r & d n$ d %n )a1%s$an@s &onom%& '%s$ory6 T' d &%s%ons ar $oo num rous $o l%s$6 Ju$ $' mor *r *%ous on s %n&lud : R Su.s%dy +or su*ar >8or$s, "'%&' "%ll &os$ $' >&' =u r a$ l as$ As3 .%ll%on a y ar F and . n +%$ a 8ol%$%&ally 8o" r+ul lo..y6 R A du&$%on o+ l &$r%&%$y &'ar* s +or a*r%&ul$ural $u. " lls6 T'%s $rans8ar n$ .%d $o "%n rural ;o$ s "%ll dra%n .ud* $ary r sour& s o+ As13 $o 20 .%ll%on a y ar6 )o" r s &$or r &o; r% s "%ll also d &l%n , as $u. " ll o"n rs "%ll . a.l $o $rans+ r 8o" r &onn &$%ons $o o$' r 8 o8l , ; n lo&al %ndus$ry6 R As10 .%ll%on %n&r as %n $' )u.l%& S &$or - ; lo8m n$ )lan ()S-)), "'%&' "%ll . &'ann ll d %n$o ;ar%ous 8ol%$%&ally mo$%;a$ d s&' m s $o r "ard or "%n l &$oral su88or$6 :ns$ ad o+ r %n%n* %n )S-) s8 nd%n* a$ $'%s 8 r%lous +%nan&%al 5un&$ur , $' *o; rnm n$ 'as don $' o88os%$ 6 R As4265 .%ll%on dol d ou$ las$ mon$' $o $' unr +orm d 8o" r s &$or "' n $' a; ra* mon$'ly &os$ o+ su.s%d% s $o $' >&' =u r %s As20 .%ll%on6 T'%s ad;an& 8aym n$ 'as . n mad "%$'ou$ >8lana$%on a$ a $%m "' n r &o; r% s 'a; su.s$an$%ally d &l%n d6 As200 .%ll%on ar . %n* 8la& d %n an s&ro" a&&oun$ +or $' &urr n$ l%a.%l%$% s o+ $' n r*y s &$or6 R As100 .%ll%on .a%lou$ +or ):A "%$' no &r d%.l r s$ru&$ur%n* o+ $' a%l%n* a%rl%n %n 8la& 6 E' r "%ll $'%s mon y &om +rom? R As500 m%ll%on loan +or Ea8da . %n* sou*'$ a$ an >or.%$an$ly '%*' ra$ o+ %n$ r s$ "%$' $' lo&al su.s%d%ary o+ a +or %*n .an1 "' n o$' r lo" r7%n$ r s$ al$ rna$%; s ar a;a%la.l 6 R Ano$' r su.s$an$%al 8ay r%s +or *o; rnm n$ m8loy s, "'%&' "%ll &os$ $' >&' =u r AsG72 .%ll%on a y ar6 T'%s &om s on $o8 o+ 8r ;%ous %n&r as s %n $' 8as$ +%; y ars, &umula$%; ly amoun$%n* $o 120 8 r& n$6 :+ 8ro;%n& s +ollo" su%$ $' &os$ $o $' .ud* $ "%ll moun$6 T'%s +%s&al 8ro+l%*a&y &om s a$ a $%m "' n *o; rnm n$ r ; nu s 'a; 8lumm $ d6 <; n $' r ;%s d $ar* $ s $ .y $' F d ral Joard o+ A ; nu %s s'or$ .y o; r a $r%ll%on ru8 s "%$' 5us$ +our mon$'s l +$ %n $'%s +%s&al y ar6 Ta> r ; nu %s >8 &$ d $o d"%ndl +ur$' r as %m8or$s &on$%nu $o +all as mor $'an 'al+ o+ GST %s &oll &$ d +rom %m8or$s6 :+ $' r sul$an$ lar* r +%s&al d +%&%$ &on$%nu s $o . +%nan& d .y mor .orro"%n* $' &ons =u n& s ar %n s&a8a.l F '%*' r %n+la$%on and add%$%on $o an unsus$a%na.l dom s$%& d .$6 T'%s %s alr ady 8ar$ o+ $' >8los%; &onom%& l *a&y . %n* . =u a$' d $o $' n >$ *o; rnm n$ .y $' )))7l d &oal%$%on F &on$rary $o Mand;%"alla@s C*ood s'a8 D &la%ms6 E%$' $' +%s&al 8ro.l m + d%n* %n$o $' %n&r as%n*ly s'a1y >$ rnal a&&oun$, $' =u s$%on %s no$ %+ .u$ "' n $' &oun$ry "%ll +a& a +or %*n >&'an* &r%s%s F unl ss ur* n$ a&$%on %s $a1 n $o a; r$ $'%s6 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

#10 Tuesday, Mar ! 19, 2013

, $-o&$or
S n%or M m. r

Jo%n -a$ : Jul 2012 /o&a$%on: 0& an o+ dr ams )os$s: 1,050 T'an1s: 223 T'an1 d 354 T%m s %n 401 )os$s

&2th March /.0&+.

A)ghan impasse
-r Mal 'a /od'% E'a$ %s $o . mad o+ )r s%d n$ Bam%d 9arIa%@s 8u.l%& admon%s'm n$ o+ $' (n%$ d S$a$ s %n '%s r & n$ s$a$ m n$s? T' s ass r$%ons marr d $' +%rs$ ;%s%$ o+ $' n " Am r%&an - + n& S &r $ary C'u&1 Ba* l $o 9a.ul6 Mor %m8or$an$ly $' y ra%s =u s$%ons a.ou$ $' A+*'an 8r s%d n$@s %n$ n$%ons and rol %n $' 8ol%$%&al $rans%$%on a' ad, "'%&' "%ll d $ rm%n 'o" 8 a& +ul $' 8a$' "%ll . $o 2014 and . yond6 T' r ar s ; ral "ays $o r ad 9arIa%@s &omm n$s $'a$ %n&lud d $' a&&usa$%on $'a$ Eas'%n*$on %s &ollud%n* "%$' $' Tal%.an $o 8rolon* $' "ar6 0n %n$ r8r $a$%on %s $'a$ su&' s$a$ m n$s s%m8ly >8r ss d '%s 8%=u and +rus$ra$%on o; r $' unr sol; d d%s8u$ "%$' $' (S on $rans+ rr%n* A+*'an d $a%n s $o '%s *o; rnm n$ und r a 8r ;%ously a*r d d adl%n 6 A 8r s%d n$%al s8o1 sman >8la%n d $'a$ 9arIa% mad $' s 8u.l%& &omm n$s "' n '%s 8r%;a$ ly ;o%& d &om8la%n$s $o " s$ rn l ad rs " n$ un' ard6 Ano$' r >8lana$%on m%*'$ . $'a$ as !a$o@s 2014 "%$'dra"al d adl%n and an nd $o '%s +%nal 8r s%d n$%al $ rm a88roa&' s, 9arIa% %s an>%ous $o &as$ '%ms l+ as a na$%onal%s$ and d mons$ra$ $'a$ ' %s no 8u88 $ o+ Eas'%n*$on6 An %n&r as%n*ly %ns &ur 9arIa% may also . las'%n* ou$ a$ $' (S $o s$on "all %n$ ns%+% d d%8loma$%& ++or$s $o o8 n $al1s "%$' $' Tal%.an a%m d a$ +%nd%n* a 8ol%$%&al solu$%on F a 8ro& ss $'a$ ' $'%n1s m%*'$ mar*%nal%s '%m6 :n on r & n$ s$a$ m n$ ' assa%l d Hs &r $ $al1s@ $'a$ ' all * d " r *o%n* on . $" n " s$ rn &oun$r% s and $' Tal%.an6 T'%s su** s$s $'a$ +ar +rom . %n* a sudd n ou$.urs$, $' A+*'an 8r s%d n$@s &'ar* d r' $or%& s ms a &al&ula$ d mo; $o ra%s $' s$a1 s on a num. r o+ %ssu s and s%*nal $'a$ ' &anno$ . %*nor d %n (S 8lans $o s'a8 $' A+*'an nd*am 6 T' s s$a$ m n$s also s r; $o &on; y $'a$ "%$'ou$ '%m Eas'%n*$on s'ould no$ >8 &$ $o &on&lud $' J%la$ ral S &ur%$y A*r m n$ $'a$ "ould allo" +or $' 8r s n& and l *al %mmun%$y o+ Am r%&an +or& s . yond 20146 A 8r s%d n$%al s8o1 sman mad $' l%n1a* =u%$ >8l%&%$: Cla&1 o+ $rus$D s'o"n .y $' (S o; r $' 8r%son rs and o$' r ma$$ rs "ould 'a; Ca n *a$%; %m8a&$ on $' J%la$ ral S &ur%$y A*r m n$D6 J s%d s 5o&1 y%n* +or l ; ra* , 9arIa% 'as $a1 n a s$an& on d%8loma$%& ++or$s $o laun&' 8 a& $al1s $'a$ 'as %n&r as%n*ly . &om an o.s$a&l %n $' 8ro& ss6 T'%s "as mor $'an ;%d n$ a$ las$ mon$'@s summ%$ m $%n* a$ C' =u rs . $" n $' l ad rs o+ )a1%s$an, A+*'an%s$an and Jr%$a%n6 0n almos$ ; ry %ssu n & ssary $o mo; $' 8ol%$%&al 8ro& ss +or"ard 9arIa% 8lay d $' rol o+ s8o%l r6 B r 5 &$ d any mor %n+ormal m $%n*s . $" n d%++ r n$ A+*'an *rou8s and Tal%.an r 8r s n$a$%; s, su&' as $'os ' ld %n )ar%s, 9yo$o and 0slo6 B%s ;%rul n$ o88os%$%on l d $o &an& lla$%on o+ $' (!7s8onsor d Tra&1 :: m $%n* %n As'*a.a$ $'a$ "as $o &on; n $'%s mon$'6 T' s d%s&uss%ons ar "%d ly r *ard d as .u%ld%n* .lo&1s +or +ormal n *o$%a$%ons do"n $' road a%m d a$ +%nd%n* a 8ol%$%&al s $$l m n$6 )r s%d n$ 9arIa% also r +us d $o su88or$ $' o8 n%n* o+ a Tal%.an o++%& %n Na$ar >& 8$ on $ rms $'a$ ' 1no"s ar una&& 8$a.l $o o$' rs6 T' (S, )a1%s$an and $' r s$ o+ $' %n$ rna$%onal &ommun%$y s $'%s o++%& as $' ; nu and s$ar$%n* 8o%n$ +or sus$a%n d n *o$%a$%ons d s%*n d $o l ad $o an %n$ra7A+*'an d%alo*u $o 8ursu Hr &on&%l%a$%on@6 Al$'ou*' ' assur d )r s%d n$ 0.ama o+ su88or$ +or $' o++%& dur%n* '%s January ;%s%$ $o Eas'%n*$on, 9arIa% su.s =u n$ly " n$ .a&1 on $'%s &omm%$m n$6 :n /ondon ' mad '%s su88or$ &ond%$%onal on assuran& s $'a$ $' o++%& . us d only +or $al1s . $" n $' Tal%.an and '%s *o; rnm n$ a88o%n$ d B%*' ) a& Coun&%l (B)C) and no o$' r 8ur8os 6 Tal%.an l ad rs 'a; r 8 a$ dly r +us d $o $al1 $o $' 9arIa% *o; rnm n$ and %ns%s$ d %ns$ ad on d%r &$ d%alo*u "%$' $' Am r%&ans6 J +or and a+$ r $' C' =u rs m $%n*, 9arIa% %s sa%d $o 'a; $old '%s na$%onal

s &ur%$y $ am $'a$ $' (S, Jr%$a%n, )a1%s$an and $' Tal%.an " r &ollud%n* %n a H&ons8%ra&y@ $o Hous$@ '%m and '%s *o; rnm n$6 B also a&&us d )a1%s$an o+ $ry%n* $o d al '%m ou$ o+ d%s&uss%ons a.ou$ A+*'an%s$an@s +u$ur .y s 1%n* $o .r%n* r 8r s n$a$%; s o+ $' !or$' rn All%an& and $' Tal%.an $o* $' r6 B %s also r 8or$ d $o 'a; s n$ m%ssar% s $o Saud% Ara.%a and Tur1 y $o 8 rsuad $' m $o o8 n a Tal%.an o++%& %n $' %r &oun$ry F a $rans8ar n$ .%d $o s&u$$l $' -o'a o++%& 6 T' s mo; s r & %; d no $ra&$%on %n $'os &a8%$als .u$ s$r n*$' n d $' %m8r ss%on ls "' r $'a$ 9arIa% "as $ry%n* $o +or s$all $' Na$ar 8ro& ss6 As $' +%rs$ s$ 8 $o"ards s $$%n* a 8 a& 8ro& ss %n mo$%on %s $o o8 n $' Na$ar o++%& , 9arIa%@s o.s$ru&$%; . 'a;%our 'as m r* d as $' 8r%n&%8al r ason +or d lay and $' 8 rs%s$%n* %m8ass o; r $'%s6 :+ $'%s 8ro& ss 'as . &om 'os$a* $o 9arIa%@s ma&'%na$%ons, $'%s %s also . &aus ' 'as . n a.l $o >8lo%$ $' la&1 o+ &lar%$y %n+orm%n* $' d%8loma$%& ++or$ so +ar6 T' 0.ama adm%n%s$ra$%on +or %$s 8ar$ 'as y $ $o s'o" $' 1%nd o+ ur* n&y $'a$ s $s a &l ar d%r &$%on and %n5 &$s mom n$um %n$o $'%s ++or$6 Mor o; r, )a1%s$an and $' (S also 'a; d%++ r%n* ;% "s a.ou$ 'o" $o nd $' %m8ass and * $ $' 8 a& 8ro& ss *o%n*6 Am r%&an o++%&%als ar*u $'a$ Eas'%n*$on 'as m $ s ; ral o+ $' Tal%.an@s 1 y &on& rns and $' onus no" l% s "%$' $' %r l ad rs'%86 To mo; +or"ard $' Tal%.an n d $o %ssu $"o s$a$ m n$s $o 8a; $' "ay +or $' -o'a o++%& $o +ormally o8 n6 :n $' +%rs$, Tal%.an l ad rs s'ould d noun& %n$ rna$%onal $ rror%sm6 T' s &ond s$a$ m n$ s'ould s%*nal Tal%.an "%ll%n*n ss $o $al1 $o Call A+*'ansD6 T'%s +ormula$%on, " s$ rn o++%&%als . l% ; , &ould . &ons$ru d as "%ll%n*n ss $o ; n$ually s%$ do"n "%$' m m. rs o+ $' B%*' ) a& Coun&%l $o %n%$%a$ a 8ro& ss o+ A+*'an Hr &on&%l%a$%on@6 T'%s $' y . l% ; m%*'$ ' l8 $o .r%n* 9arIa% on .oard6 Ju$ $'%s r ; rs s $' s =u n& o+ "'a$ $' Tal%.an 'a; lon* sa%d "ould . a&& 8$a.l $o $' m and "'%&' $' y &la%m "as a*r d "%$' Am r%&an n *o$%a$ors . +or $al1s " r sus8 nd d las$ y ar: $'a$ $' Na$ar 8ro& ss "ould s$ar$ "%$' d%r &$ $al1s . $" n Am r%&an and Tal%.an %n$ rlo&u$ors o; r $' >&'an* o+ 8r%son rs6 T'%s %n;ol; d mo;%n* +%; Tal%.an d $a%n s +rom Guan$anamo $o Na$ar %n r $urn +or $' r l as o+ S r* an$ Jo" J r*da'l, $' sol Am r%&an 8r%son r o+ "ar ' ld .y Tal%.an +%*'$ rs6 )a1%s$an% o++%&%als . l% ; $'a$ +ollo"%n* $'%s s =u n& m%*'$ 8 rsuad Tal%.an l ad rs $o r s8ond .y %ssu%n* $' $"o s$a$ m n$s6 0n& $' Tal%.an o++%& o8 ns, $al1s . $" n d%++ r n$ A+*'an *rou8s &ould +ollo"6 T' ass r$%on .y Am r%&an o++%&%als $'a$ $' Na$ar%s 'ad ad;%s d $' m a + " mon$'s a*o $'a$ $' Tal%.an " r r ady $o ma1 $' s s$a$ m n$s "%$'ou$ $' 8r%son r >&'an* 'as no$ 8ro; n $o . &orr &$6 T' s$al ma$ 8 rs%s$s, "%$' Am r%&an a88roa&' s $o $' Tal%.an $'rou*' Na$ar% o++%&%als ;o1%n* no r s8ons so +ar6 T' &'all n* o+ 'o" $o d al "%$' 9arIa% %s &om8l%&a$ d .y $' la&1 o+ a &o' r n$ 8ol%$%&al 8lan $'a$ +or& s $' d%8loma$%& 8a& and ma1 s %$ 'ard +or '%m $o d lay or d ra%l $' 8ro& ss6 :n $'%s r *ard, :slama.ad + ls $' (S 'as mad d%8loma$%& mo; s %n $' a.s n& o+ a 8ol%$%&al s$ra$ *y $'a$ s $s ou$ a &l ar $ra5 &$ory o+ r &%8ro&al s$ 8s s =u n& d $o 8rodu& mo; m n$6 )a1%s$an% o++%&%als 'a; $' r +or &on; y d $o $' %r (S &oun$ r8ar$s $' n d $o ;ol; an a*r d 8ol%$%&al +ram "or1 $o ad;an& $' 8 a& 8ro& ss ra$' r $'an ma1 s&a$$ r d ++or$s and o++ r 8% & m al &on& ss%ons6 )a1%s$an . l% ; s $%m %s alr ady runn%n* ou$ $o a&&om8l%s' 8ro*r ss on r &on&%l%a$%on, "'%&' %$ s s as ss n$%al . +or $' 2014 8r s%d n$%al l &$%ons s8 &%ally $o nsur $' %r &r d%.%l%$y6 (r* n&y %s also d m d n & ssary . &aus on& $' (S $roo8 "%$'dra"al *a$' rs 8a& dur%n* 2013 $' Am r%&an n *o$%a$%n* 'and "%ll s$ ad%ly rod 6 T' r %s no $%m $o los %n $' +a& o+ $' d $ r%ora$%n* s%$ua$%on %n A+*'an%s$an

"' r an unsur s &ur%$y $rans%$%on %s alr ady und r"ay6 T' a.%l%$y o+ A+*'an s &ur%$y +or& s $o 'old $' %r *round %n 8os$7!a$o A+*'an%s$an r ma%ns o8 n $o =u s$%on6 T' only "ay $' n $o 8r ; n$ un& r$a%n$y +rom $a1%n* 'old and d $ rm%n%n* $' &ours o+ ; n$s %s $o a&& l ra$ ++or$s $o +%nd a n *o$%a$ d s $$l m n$6 )ro*r ss $o"ards $'%s *oal r ma%ns $' only ;%a.l "ay $o a&&om8l%s' a sa+ and 8 a& +ul "%$'dra"al o+ !a$o +or& s and a; r$ $' dan* r o+ A+*'an%s$an@s d s& n$ %n$o &'aos6 MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM -r6S'a..%r A'mad

"he #ollo!ing (ser Says "han$ ,ou to 'etDoctor #or "his (se)ul PostMan Jaan.aIam (Tu sday, Mar&' 14, 2013)
) a * 1 o+ 3

&

>

3 )r ;%ous T'r ad S ! >$ T'r ad 4

Posting Rules Qou may not 8os$ n " $'r ads Qou may not 8os$ r 8l% s Qou may not 8os$ a$$a&'m n$s Qou may not d%$ your 8os$s JJ &od %s 5n Sm%l% s ar 5n T:MGU &od %s 5n BTM/ &od %s 5)) Tra&1.a&1s ar 5n )%n*.a&1s ar 5n A +.a&1s ar 5n Forum Aul s

Similar "hreads Thread Ar$%&l s .y C%;%l S r;an$s o+ )a1%s$an :ndo7)a1 B%s$ory mos$ "an$ d no$ s Ar$%&l s r la$ d $o * o*ra8'y J Ar$%&l s .y Basan A1ar%, S'ams'ad A'mad # Mal 'a /od'% Thread Starter ,%& roy Jurn $' Joa$s SQ<-A SAJABAT ros M8a1 Forum ! "s # Ar$%&l s :ndo )a1 '%s$ory G o*ra8'y ! "s # Ar$%&l s Repl ies 44 0 0 2 ast Post Tu sday, May 0G, 2013 10:23 )M Sunday, S 8$ m. r 23, 2012 0G:31 )M Sa$urday, 0&$o. r 24, 2011 05:05 )M E dn sday, Mar&' 24, 2010 03:54 )M

CSS #orum 6 Pri*acy Statement 6 "erms o) Ser*ice 6 "op

Disclaimer- T'%s %s no$ $' o++%&%al " .s%$ o+ F d ral )u.l%& S r;%& Comm%ss%on )a1%s$an6 T'%s %s a non7&omm r&%al " .s%$ ' l8%n* %nd%;%duals "'o %n$ nd $o 5o%n &%;%l s r;%& o+ )a1%s$an6 T' ma$ r%al on $'%s " .s%$ %s 8ro;%d d +or %n+orma$%onal 8ur8os s only6 E do no$ &la%m $'a$ $' s%$ %s an >'aus$%; &om8%la$%on o+ %n+orma$%on a.ou$ C%;%l S r;%& o+ )a1%s$an n %$' r r 8r s n$ or ndors $' a&&ura&y or r l%a.%l%$y o+ any %n+orma$%on, &on$ n$ &on$a%n d on, or l%n1 d, do"nload d or a&& ss d +rom any 8a* o+ $'%s " .s%$ 6 T' s ma$ r%als ar %n$ nd d, .u$ no$ 8rom%s d or *uaran$ d $o . &urr n$, &om8l $ or u8 $o da$ 6 Bo" ; r, 'on s$ ++or$s 'a; . n mad $o 8ro;%d &om8r ' ns%; %n+orma$%on +or $' . n +%$ o+ us rs6 T' do&um n$s and ma$ r%al d%s8lay d or m n$%on d on $'%s s%$ ar no$ o++%&%al &o8% s6 )l as &on$a&$ F)SC +or u8da$ d rul s and r *ula$%ons *o; rn%n* CSS >am%na$%on6 S8onsors: Ar*us,%s%on ;Jull $%n, Co8yr%*'$ V2000 7 2013, J lso+$ <n$ r8r%s s /$d6