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Binomial Distribution

Keith E. Emmert

Department of Mathematics

Tarleton State University

June 16, 2011

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Outline

1

Random Variables

2

Binomial Random Variables

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Some Basic Denitions

A random variable is an uncertain numerical quantity whose

value depends on the random outcome of an experiment. We

can think of a random variable as a rule that assigns one (and

only one) numerical value to each outcome of a random

experiment.

A discrete random variable can assume at most a nite or

innite but countable number of distinct values.

A continuous random variable can assume any value in an

interval or collection of intervals.

Think of the capital letter X as

:::::::

random, the value of the

variable before it is observed. Think of x as

::::::

known, a

:::::::::

particular

:::::

value

::

of

:::

X that has been observed.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It

Random Variables

1

Otitis media, a disease of the middle ear, is one of the

frequent reasons for visiting a doctor in the rst 2 years of life

other than routine well-baby visit. Let X be the random

variable that represents the number of episodes of Otitis

media in the rst two years of life. What are the values, x,

the random variable X will assume?

2

Suppose a physician agrees to use a new anti-hypertensive

drug on a trial basis on the rst 4 untreated hypertensive

patients she encounters in her practice, before deciding

whether to adopt the drug for routine use. Let X be the

number of patients out of 4 who are brought under control.

What are the values, x, the random variable X can assume?

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It

Random Variables

3

A study on eects of exposure to radiation was performed at

the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, where each exposed worker

wore a dosimeter that measures the annual exposure in rem.

The cumulative exposure over a workers lifetime could then be

obtained by summing the yearly exposure. Let X be the

amount of cumulative exposure. What are the values, x, the

random variable X will assume?

4

A biology teacher gives a 30 minutes test. Dene the random

variable as the time it takes a student to nish the test. What

are the values, x, the random variable X will assume?

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It

Random Variables

Random

Variable, X

Discrete

Continuous

Probability mass

function. Height

corresponds to

proability.

Probability

density function.

Area corresponds

to probability.

x

P

r

o

b

a

b

i

l

i

t

y

D

e

n

s

i

t

y

x

a b

a

Pr(X = a)

Pr(a X b)

Identify as discrete or continuous.

1

Reaction time dierence to same stimulus before and after

training.

2

The number of violent crimes committed per month in your

community.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Probability Mass Functions

A probability mass function of a discrete random variable X

assigns to each observation, x

1

, x

2

, . . . , x

k

, a probability of

occurrence, p

1

, p

2

, . . . , p

k

. The values of a discrete probability

distribution (the assigned probabilities) must be between 0 and 1

and must add up to 1, that is

p

i

= p

1

+ p

2

+ + p

k

= 1.

We often group this information as a table or a function:

Value of X x

1

x

2

x

k

Probability Pr (X = x) p

1

p

2

p

k

p(x) =

_

_

p

1

, if x = x

1

p

2

if x = x

2

.

.

.

.

.

.

p

k

if x = x

k

.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Probability Mass Functions

Determine which of the following represents a probability mass

function for a random variable X. Explain.

(a)

x 0 1 2 3

Pr (X = x) 0.26 0.32 0.42 0

(b)

x 0 1 2 3

Pr (X = x) 0.20 0.32 0.42 0.10

(c)

x 0 1 2 3

Pr (X = x) 0.26 0.32 0.42 0.10

(d)

x 0 1 2 3

Pr (X = x) 0.25 0.35 0.45 -0.05

(e) p(x) = 0.5 + x, x = 0.75, 0, 0.25.

(f) p(x) = 0.5 + x, x = 0.25, 0, 0.25.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Example

Probability Mass Functions

Let X be the number of people in a household for a certain

community.

x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Pr (X = x) 0.20 0.32 0.18 0.15 0.07 0.03

(a) What must be the probability of 7 people in a household for

this to be a legitimate discrete distribution?

(b) Display this probability mass function graphically.

(c) What is the probability that a randomly chosen household

contains more than 5 people?

(d) What is the probability that a randomly chosen household

contains no more than 2 people?

(e) What is Pr (2 < X 4)? The probability that a randomly

selected household has more than 2 but at most 4 people.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Probability Mass Functions

Researchers found the following probability values for the dental

habits of x, the age children begin brushing their teeth or gums.

x 0 1 2 3 4

Pr (X = x) 0.04 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.31

(a) Present the probability distribution function graphically.

(b) Find the Pr (X < 2).

(c) Find the probability of a child three years old or older

beginning to brush their teeth or gums?

(d) Using probability values, determine if it is unusual for a child

less than one year old to brush their teeth or gums.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

Suppose X is a discrete random variable taking on the values

x

1

, x

2

, . . . , x

k

, with probabilities p

1

, p

2

, . . . , p

k

.

The mean or expected value of X if given by

E(X) =

X

= x

1

p

1

+ x

2

p

2

+ + x

k

p

k

=

k

i =1

x

i

p

i

.

The variance of X is given by

Var (X) =

2

X

= E

_

(X

X

)

2

= E(X

2

) [E(X)]

2

=

x

2

i

p

i

2

X

.

The standard deviation of X is given by SD(X) =

X

=

_

2

X

.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Example

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

The probability mass function for the number of episodes of Otitis

media on the rst 2 years of life is given in the table.Let r denote

the number of episodes.

r 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Pr (X = r ) 0.129 0.264 0.271 0.185 0.095 0029 0.017

The average (mean) number of episodes of Otitis media on the

rst two years of life is

X

= E(X) = 0(0.129) + 1(0.264) + 2(0.271) + 3(0.185) + 4(0.095)

+ 5(0.029) + 6(0.017) = 1.988

Thus, there are

X

= 1.988 episodes in the rst two years of life.

Continued...

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Example

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

The probability mass function for the number of episodes of Otitis

media on the rst 2 years of life is given in the table. Let r denote

the number of episodes.

r 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Pr (X = r ) 0.129 0.264 0.271 0.185 0.095 0029 0.017

The variance is Var (X) =

2

X

= E(X

2

)

2

X

.. Hence, we need

E(X

2

).

E(X

2

) = 0

2

(0.129) + 1

2

(0.264) + 2

2

(0.271) + 3

2

(0.185) + 4

2

(0.095)

+ 5

2

(0.029) + 6

2

(0.017) = 5.87

So the variance and the standard deviation can be computed

2

X

= E(X

2

)

2

X

= (5.87 (1.988)

2

= 1.92

and

X

=

_

2

X

=

1.92 = 1.39.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

A Pharmacy has a drive-through service. The number of customers

arriving during a 15-minute period is distributed as shown. Find

the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the distribution.

# of Customers, x 0 1 2 3 4

Pr (X = x) 0.12 0.20 0.31 0.25 0.12

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

The following distribution shows the number of students enrolled

in CPR classes oered by the local re department. Find the

mean, variance, and standard deviation for the distribution

# of Students, x 12 13 14 15 16

Pr (X = x) 0.15 0.20 0.38 0.18 0.09

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Combinations

For a positive integer n, factorial of n is

n! = n(n 1)(n 2) (2)(1).

For convenience, we dene 0! = 1.

n choose x represents the number of ways of selecting x items

(without replacement) from a set of n distinguishable items

when the order of the selection is not important is given by:

_

n

x

_

=

n!

x!(n x)!

provided 0 x n.

If x < 0 or x > n, then we dene

_

n

x

_

= 0 (it is hard to pick a

negative number of things or to pick more things than are

available).

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Example

Combinations

How many subsets of S = {1, 2} are there which contain...

# Subsets Answer Subsets Combination

0 1

_

2

0

_

= 1

1 2 {1}, {2}

_

2

1

_

= 2

2 1 S = {1, 2}

_

2

2

_

= 1

How many subsets of S = {1, 2, 3} are there which contain...

# Subsets Answer Subsets Combination

0 1

_

3

0

_

= 1

1 2 {1}, {2}, {3}

_

3

1

_

= 3

2 1 {1, 2}, {1, 3}, {2, 3}

_

3

2

_

= 3

3 1 S = {1, 2, 3}

_

3

3

_

= 1

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Example

Combinations with the Calculator Using nCr

Find the number of ways to select 2 apples from a bag of 20 apples.

By hand, calculate

_

20

2

_

=

20!

2!(20 2)!

=

20 19 18 17 2 1

2 1 18 17 2 1

=

20 19

2

= 190.

By calculator, follow these instructions

2 0 MATH

3 2

ENTER

Total # of items, n = 20

for the operation nCr

the # of items to

select, r = 2

Your calculator should give you 190 as an answer.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

How many subsets of S = {1, 2, 3, 4} are there which contain...

# Subsets Answer Subsets Combination

0 1

1 {1}, {2}, {3}, {4}

2

_

4

2

_

= 6

3 4

_

4

3

_

= 4

4 S = {1, 2, 3, 4}

Complete the table.

The set S has 4 values, so the total number of possible

subsets is 2

4

= . Conrm that this does this equal the

total of the answer column.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Bernoulli Random Variables

A dichotomous or Bernoulli random variable is one which has

exactly two possible outcomes, often referred to as success and

failure. In this text we will only consider such variables in which

the success probability p remains the same if the random

experiment were repeated under identical conditions. The failure

probability, q = 1 p.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Bernoulli Random Variables

(a) The national incidence rate of chronic bronchitis in children in

their rst year of life in households where both parents are

chronic bronchitis is 5%. A researcher investigates 20

households where both parents are chronic bronchitis. If

success is dened be child in his rst year of life with chronic

bronchitis, what is the probability of success? What is the

probability of failure?

Success: p = Failure: q =

(b) Suppose that the rate of major congenital malformations in

the general population is 2.5 malformations per 100 deliveries.

A sample of 100 infants identied in birth registry as ospring

of Vietnam-veteran fathers. If success is dened be infant

with congenital malformation, what is the probability of

success? What is the probability of failure?

Success: p = Failure: q =

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Binomial Random Variables

A binomial random variable X is the total number of successes in n

independent Bernoulli trials where on each trial the probability of a

success is p.

Basic Properties of a Binomial Experiment

The experiment consists of n identical trials.

Each trial has two possible outcomes (success, failure).

The trials are independent.

The probability of a success, p, remains the same for each

trial. The probability of a failure is q = 1 p.

X can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . . , n.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Binomial Random Variables

Determine which of the following is a binomial experiment?

Explain.

(a) Surveying 100 people to determine if they like Sudsy Soap.

(b) Asking 1000 people which brand of cigarettes they smoke.

(c) Testing one brand of aspirin by using 10 people to determine

whether it is eective.

(d) Asking 100 people if they smoke.

(e) Surveying 300 prisoners to see how many dierent crimes they

were convicted of.

(f) Surveying 300 prisoners to see whether this is their rst

oense.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Binomial Probability Distribution

The Math

The binomial probability distribution is

p(x) = Pr (X = x) =

_

n

x

_

p

x

q

nx

, x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n,

where

p is the probability of a success on each single trial

q = 1 p is the probability of failure on each single trial

n is the number of independent trials

x is the number of success in the n trials.

The mean is

X

= E(X) = np.

The variance is

2

X

= Var (X) = npq = np(1 p).

The standard deviation is

X

=

_

2

X

=

npq =

_

np(1 p).

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Binomial Probability Distribution

The Math

Assume that X follows a binomial probability distribution with n

trials and probability of success p.

Then, Pr (X = x) =

_

n

x

_

p

x

q

nx

, x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n.

The cumulative distribution for a binomial random variable is

Pr (X x) =

x

i =0

Pr (X = i )

= Pr (X = 0) + Pr (X = 1) + + Pr (X = x).

The word cumulative is used because it accumulates all

of the probability from 0 to x.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Binomial Probability Distribution

Using the TI-84

Suppose your probability of success is

1

3

with n = 4 trials of a

binomial experiment.

The probability of obtaining exactly three successes is

0.0987...

4 3 ENTER

2nd Vars brings up the DISTR menu

0 selects the binomPDF(n, p, x) function

,

1 3

,

)

The probability of obtaining at most two successes is 0.8889...

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Binomial Probability Distribution

According to 2001 study of college students by Harvard Universitys

School of Public Health 20% of those included in the study abstain

from drinking. A random sample of six college students is selected.

Identify the following:

A trial =

n = number of independent trials

p = probability of a success on each single trial

x = number of successes in the n trials

1

What is the probability that exactly three students in this

sample abstain from drinking?

2

What is the probability that at most two students in this

sample abstain from drinking?

3

What is the probability that less than two students in this

sample abstain from drinking?

Continued...

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Binomial Probability Distribution

According to 2001 study of college students by Harvard Universitys

School of Public Health 20% of those included in the study abstain

from drinking. A random sample of six college students is selected.

Identify the following:

A trial =

n = number of independent trials

p = probability of a success on each single trial

x = number of successes in the n trials

4

What is the probability that at least three students in this

sample abstain from drinking?

5

What is the probability that more than three students in this

sample abstain from drinking?

6

What is the mean and standard deviation of the number of

students abstaining from drinking?

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Binomial Probability Distribution

The national incidence rate of chronic bronchitis in children in their

rst year of life in households where both parents are chronic

bronchitis is 5%. A researcher investigates 20 households where

both parents are chronic bronchitis.

(a) How likely are infants in at least 3 out of 20 households to

develop chronic bronchitis?

(b) What is the mean and standard deviation of the number of

households, where both parents are chronic bronchitis, with

infants having chronic bronchitis?

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

When Is It Extreme?

The national incidence rate of chronic bronchitis in children in their

rst year of life in households where both parents are chronic

bronchitis is 5%. We wish to test unusual occurrences of chronic

bronchitis when n = 1, 500 and x = 75.

Pr (X = 75) =

_

1500

75

_

(0.05)

75

(0.95)

150075

= 0.0472. Note

that 5% of 1,500 is 75 (the national average!), and yet this

occurs with a small probability. This doesnt make intuitive

sense.

Another approach is to nd the probability of obtaining a

result

::

at

::::

least

:::

as

::::::::

extreme

:::

as

:::

the

::::

one

:::::::::

obtained, that is

Pr (X 75) = 1 Pr (X < 75) = 1 Pr (X 74) = 0.5165,

a very likely event!

Compare to Pr (X 90) = 1 Pr (X 89) = 0.0361, an

unlikely event occurs with just 15 more cases!

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Lets Do It!

Binomial Probability Distribution

Suppose that the rate of major congenital malformations in the

general population is 2.5 malformations per 100 deliveries. A study

is set up to investigate if the ospring of Vietnam-veteran fathers

are at special risk for congenital malformations.

(a) A sample of 100 infants identied in birth registry as ospring

of Vietnam-veteran fathers and 4 have a major congenital

malformation. Is there an excess risk of malformation in this

group, i.e. compute the probability that at least 4 occurs.

(b) Find the mean and the standard deviation of the number of

malformations of the ospring of Vietnam-veteran fathers.

Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables and the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random Variables

Homework

HW page 112: 2*, 3*, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15, 34, 39, 40

* For #2 and #3 use the following distribution

x Pr (X = x)

0 0.72

1 0.26

2 0.02

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